Centennial Precious Metals, Inc: Serving Gold Coin & Bullion Investors Since 1973
(Home Page)	(How to Buy Gold)	(Gold Coin Images)	(Daily Market Report)	(Live Gold Price)
(First-time Buyers)	(News & Views)	(ABCs of Gold Book)	(Gold IRA)	(Buy Gold Coins Online)
(Live Gold Coin Prices)	Online Information Packet			(About Us)

It began on January 19, 2001 when we asked the esteemed participants of our Discussion Forum the following question: "Will 2001 be a positive one for gold or a negative one? Is this the year of the big breakout? More of the same? A disaster? You make the call, support it with knowledge, skill and erudition and the prize is yours!" In exchange for their insights, we offered a prize of one pre-1933 French 20 franc gold rooster coin to be awarded to the single post that could in some way distinguish itself above all the others; with silver Eagles to be awarded to two runners up. We asked contestants to treat the potential economic, political and financial scenarios as a basis for their opinion, with an entry deadline of January 23rd.

As we stand at a threshold -- not just of a new century, but a time of uncertainty as the winds of change sweep through the world economy -- there could be no better moment for a contest with such a theme. Therefore, we have decided to construct this temporary wing of the Hall of Fame where all the contest entries shall be on display for the duration of 2001. The "Exhibit" will remain open until December 31st, 2001, and we hope that the Table Round will find it a source of discussion.

The panel of judges have spoken! First, allow us to assure you that we appreciate the time and thought that is put into the development of these posts revealed by the weighty task involved in reviewing and absorbing the contents and wisdom found within each one. Were that not formidable enough, choosing the "Best of Show" poses an additional challenge from which we're sure even Sir Edmund Hillary would likely shy away. But somehow the deed must be done, and so it has been. We are pleased to award the gold prize (20 franc French rooster coin) to Sir Black Blade, followed closely by Sir Peter Asher, our first runner up silver Eagle winner. Rounding out our list of metal winners is Sir SEER, claiming the second runner up silver Eagle for a rare display of creative talent in which the resultant work of art is so clearly seen to imitate life.

Taken together, Sirs Blade and Asher make a solid case for a gold rally occurring this year due to changes in the relationship between Washington and New York amidst an unfolding energy crisis that none-too-shyly reaches out to remind us each and every day that things are not as they once were just a few short months ago. And while this case alone is compelling, there are a great many conspiring factors -- acting on stages throughout the world -- each whispering independently that the time is nigh for gold to shine brightly once again on the financial scene.

All that is required to convince yourself of the magnitude of this problematic potpourri stacked against our economic status quo is a cursory review of the many other commentaries posted in response to this call to contest, and notably among them the two Honorable Mention posts by Sirs Simply Me and ET. And while we once again affirm that all posts were insightful and worthy of careful attention, we felt it useful to give the special nod of Honorable Mention also to Sir AUgustUS for reminding us all to recognize the important distinction of "value" over "price". When one understands "value" -- or make that "need" -- then "price" becomes a secondary issue in importance, and that is how physical gold, an uncheat-able savings asset immune to default, may achieve astronomic numbers in terms of exchange with paper currencies as already seen in many nations worldwide.

Come what may, let us hope the course of the year allows us all to welcome 2002 with better health, happiness and financial security than that with which we confidently entered 2001.

Black Blade (1/20/2001; 7:14:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 45975) GOLD WINNER
**** 2001 - A Gold Odessey ****
A Very Positive Year for Gold Amid Economic Strife!
January is the perfect time of year to examine your "fiscal fitness" Whether you're just starting out or you already own several stocks, real estate or precious metals you should strive for a well-balanced, diversified portfolio to help you weather storms like last year. After all, if one stock or sector has a down year, another may perform well.

For example, last year the technology-heavy NASDAQ lost 38% and large company stocks lost 9% (as represented by the S&P 500 Index), while medium-sized companies gained 18% (S&P MidCap 400 Index) and utilities and consumer goods each gained more than 20% (S&P Indices for each sector). Over 5 years, however, large, medium and technology stocks outpaced utilities and consumer goods. Real estate has held value fairly well. However, PMs have performed badly. But this is the real question. Are PMs an investment?

PMs are portfolio insurance. PMs usually move counter to the stock market and do well in times of economic uncertainty. We are now entering into a new period for investing. A new administration will take over today and policy is sure to change. As many here know, I have pounded the table (at times too aggressively perhaps) about the lack of an energy policy and the energy crisis. This will continue to drag on the economy. That in my opinion means that we could enter into some "uncertain" times. Diversification into hard assets such as PMs are almost a must while prices are still at near 20 year lows. This cannot last forever.

The last administration has squandered many opportunities to become Ants (as per the Aesop fable of "The Ant and the Grasshopper"), and have only aggravated a growing cancer on the economy. Times have been very good over the last few years for stock markets investors, however, we have seen the new paradigm of "things are different this time." Oh really! What we have really seen is a speculative bubble that was fueled by unrealistic expectations as Dot.Com mania spread far and wide. Day trading became rampant as people quit their jobs to get the "easy money." Well the Dot.Coms soon became the Dot.Bombs, and now most are Dot.Gone.

So why is Gold still in a funk? Some claim that it is manipulation by powerful short-selling hedge funds and investment banks, other say it is forward selling gold miners, and yet others say that it is official sector sales from CB's and the US Exchange Stabilization Fund. It just might be all of these. What ever the reason, this can not continue as these short-selling interests dig themselves deeper into an untenable position. After all, these are "paper trades" that are backed by physical gold - gold that may not even exist. Such strategies will eventually implode and those holding gold will reap the rewards, or as many believe, those holding gold will more likely survive as others wail and bemoan their losses.

The energy crisis is not getting any better. There are regulatory and environmental issues that have resulted in a shortage of energy. California is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The EPA Clean Air Act, though a noble concept, has not taken into account of the finite resources of clean burning natural gas and the lack of exploration and production when prices were low. Now there is a mad scramble for natural gas. One major problem is when prices were low, drill rig companies and service providers went bankrupt, went into other industries, or simply stopped making equipment. Many drill rigs went to the scrap heaps. Wind and solar power are renewable sources, yet they are not only climate dependent, there is political opposition to even take up "open space" and the loss of "aesthetic value." Not to mention animal rights, etc. Coal and nuclear? Oh boy, I can really go into the political maelstrom that would bring about. The point is, it is already too late.

That brings us back to precious metals. The economy is teetering on collapse from rising cost, much if not most as a result of higher energy costs and lost production. Earnings warnings abound week to week on Wall Street. Gold has a history of well over 3000 years - got that! Over 3000 years as a store of value! I think that new paradigms are interesting, however, history is replete with new paradigms (South Sea Bubble and Tulip Mania to name a couple). History has shown us that economies don't always "Grow to the sky" as the economic collapses in 1893, 1929, 1973, and 1979 demonstrate. The current market is on the verge of a severe downturn and the new president will be hard pressed to pick up the pieces. This year is likely to bring about a breakout for gold as the situation of market manipulation and economic forces become unttenable - much akin to a juggler who is faced with keeping his eyes focused on one too many balls in the air. Something has to give, and with energy as the trigger, gold is about to run free as a mad scramble ensues with politicians, bankers, and markets makers trying to keep all these balls in the air.

In 2001 - Gold will rise and become the lifeboat that will keep the few lucky Ants afloat!

Peter Asher (01/23/01; 23:36:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46284) SILVER WINNER
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
This twenty-year low for the price of Gold has been achieved by a basic dynamic of market psychology. The more unbelievable the price decline, the more demoralizing to sentiment and the stronger the negative momentum. We have seen, in this recent history, a body politic ignoring the will of the people to a degree never before approached in the annals of modern democracy. They have controlled the POG with impunity to enable their cohorts to conduct the trading activities necessary to protect their positions. They have not had to buy physical gold to do this. As negative sentiment holds the price of gold down and leaves all rallies suspect, larger quantities of covering long positions can be purchased without pulling up the price.. The same margin leverage that creates massive short positions also serves to acquire the longs. It is the writer of those long contracts that will eventually be caught short by the breakout. These purchasers have, so far, locked in their cover price for a small fraction of the funds that would be necessary to buy the physical. Squaring off the short sales has been merely a technical financial matter. This can only continue as long as the 'System' is still in place. When the volume of futures trading increases substantially and consistently, we will be in an 'end game' and this historic buying opportunity will be brought up short. (pun intended)

The beginning of the end may be at hand. In the last few days there has been a widening circle of perception that there is a watershed change in the type of "leadership" (commanders in charge) that control what is permitted behind the scenes. The following excerpts from recent posts are indicative of this.

ET (1/23/2001; 5:21:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 46210)
>>> John Brimelow --- saga of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund - its rise, fall, and the peculiar circumstances surrounding its rescue in September 1998 - more and more appears paradigmatic of Clinton Era finance. Esoteric and secretive in action, operating through special relationships and understandings, involving greed and ambition of astonishingly uninhibited scale, and ultimately giving rise to suspicions of ominous fusion between private commercial objectives and the formulation of public policy, it lays out a pattern likely to become all too familiar as documentation of the period becomes more available.<<<

And >>>>This quote from the French finance minister, Laurent Fabius, was included in Bill Murphy's Midas commentary of January 19th. -- "I have always considered the idea that the American economy had discovered perpetual growth naive. The conditions we've seen for some time now, including the lack of savings and external trade deficit were inevitable financial negligence wrought by the over valued dollar. I know, however that the new American administration is well aware of these games and is capable of acting pragmatically in close coordination with Alan Greenspan. The group of seven meeting in one month will give us the possibility to discuss these questions." <<<

I am suggesting that the lights may be being turned on in "the boiler room." This raid on the price of Gold was able to occur in a uniquely licentious period of political history. Indeed the acceleration of the decline can be seen to have begun about the time that Clinton was re-elected and no longer had to hold back for fear of losing an election. I submit that only in this extreme state of permissive impropriety could this abuse of rules and regulations flourish unchallenged.

I predict that the re-emergence of at least some semblance of ethical standards in the new leadership will significantly lessen the ability of the behind-the-scenes manipulation to carry on. What would follow would be a higher "equilibrium" price for gold.

I don't think we are going to have the "melt down" due to the credit and market bubbles. Aside from the NASDQ, the markets have spent twenty-one months now above and below a flat-line median. The Dow, for instance, has a line right through the 10,600 level, and at the moment swings a bit above and below in an orderly fashion. Consider how much stock is now in the hands of recent owners who are more or less even. I also believe the credit bubble will be deflated by "new loans for old" as lower interest rates improve the ability to service debt at the expense of the receivers of interest income.

That leaves a Gold market able to recover gently at first, which is what even the bad guys probably want. Absent the panic of major crises, Gold will most probably back away from first the $280 level and then the WA $340 before creating any legion of true believers. The year-end could fall either side of that second psychological overhang.

How fitting it is to label the course of Gold an Odyssey.

Odysseus, (Ulysses in Latin and Gold in Kosares) set forth from his victories of winning the Trojan Wars, (Iliad) (Days of Gold as Money) and visited the land of the lotus eaters (credit purveyors) whose magic food (receiving before earning) makes people forget their homeland. (Honest exchange) Odysseus sets sail for home but is captured by the cyclops (1933 Confiscation) He escapes (re-legalization of Gold) but is blown off course (London gold Pool) and lands on the island inhabited by Circe who changes his men into pigs, (1970's asset inflation profiteering) and made Odysseus her lover. (Gold @$850) Some of his men stole and ate the sacred cattle of the sun, (sold their Gold for profit and spent it) and as punishment the ship was destroyed and the men drowned. (Recession, and the S & L disaster)

Now Odysseus has been a prisoner of the sea nymph Calypso, (Gold/Yen Carry Trade) for several years. The god Hermes ( EU) makes Calypso release Odysseus (Washington agreement) but the sea god Poseidon (Cabal) causes a storm and he is shipwrecked on the island of the Paeacians. (England, LBMA and BOE)

The Palace where Fair (Trade) Penelope awaits him has been occupied by a "group of unruly young noblemen (Fiat currencies) who want her to assume that her husband (Gold) is dead. They demand that she marry one of them." When Odysseus returns to the palace he is disguised as a beggar. (commodity) The noblemen are having an archery contest, the winner to marry Penelope. (Become the reserve currency). But Odysseus throws off his disguise, (shows himself as monetary gold) kills the noblemen (fiat currencies) and he (Gold) and fair (trade) Penelope are reunited!
-----
2001 will most likely not see "The return to the palace." Gold must sail past the "Siren Calls" that cloud men's minds with false fantasy. But Odysseus will be lashed to the mast by the bonds of words of truth spoken to the world on this Forum. This year should see Gold clear of the straights and past the headland, the wind again filling the sails, pulling towards home and Fair Trade Penelope.

SEER (01/22/01; 07:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 46132) SILVER WINNER
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Upon the edge of a lofty plateau I stand and cast my eye
To pierce the misty fog below and scan the murky sky.

For down below lies all I own, a paltry sum at best,
But I must save it, I alone! Oh, may I stand the test!

What dangers lurk beneath the shroud that shuts my vision out?
Is there a storm below the cloud? Is there a thief about?

I look again and, sure enough, there comes a man of sin
To take my gold, a man so tough! I fight but cannot win!

He comes as a dragon with several heads, each full of raging fire,
With nostrils spouting heated smoke, and sinews that never tire.

The first head doesn't really steal the golden trove of mine,
He drives the price to depths unreal! And all I can do is whine!

The second head tells me I've lost it all, there's nothing I can do!
Sell out! Be gone! Gold's price must fall! And he calls the same to you!

The third head spins a nasty snare, of carnage and deceit,
As power brokers near and far turn up their savage heat.

But then beyond the savage beast my eyes pierce through the mist
To see that all is not yet lost! A champion raises fist!

What strength he shows for all to see! What power he displays!
Is this the one to set us free? Will gold now find its way?

Ah, yes! Take heart! And guard your trove of yellow shining metal.
Our champion rides to save the day. The dragon he will battle.

Who is this one that we can trust with all that we may have?
How can his sword the dragon thrust until its bowels calve?

The champion is a dashing knight, an angel of great power,
For he's the one who holds much gold, and wants more by the hour!

His name: DEMAND! He wants it all. He wants it really bad!
And he will pay the price you call, for none is to be had!

And that, my friend, will spell the end, in year two thousand one,
To the dragon's silly paper games he used to think were fun!

Gold's price will climb, and surely pay, within the coming year.
I see it now as clear as day! Behold! It's almost here!

AUgustUS (01/22/01; 16:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46166) Honorable Mention
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
This long adventurous golden journey of mankind has led us - down through the ages - on a series of wanderings.

These wanderings have been far and wide, high and low. In many instances - the majority of people have forgotten, or are oblivious to - the experiences - and the lessons learnt. Some have chosen to ignore these whisperings from the past. Fortunately, others have been working at combining these past experiences to achieve a better - more equitable solution for the generations to come.

We stand today at the dawn of the next thousand years. The past hundred years alone are sufficient reminder to all of us that we may have become more advanced - but distinctly less civilized. Something is fundamentally not sound with our "empty" progress. The answer lies in our "measurement" of "things".

The world's population still places far too much emphasis on the value of paper promises - of all kinds. This includes the value placed on currencies, derivative instruments, debt instruments and other contracts. We fail to see the relationship between a "high price" and a "low value pricing unit". An example could be the "high price" of a loaf of bread or Tech stock when priced in a "low value pricing unit" such as a very weak currency. Is the bread expensive - or is the currency weak ? And compared to what ?

Today, and in the recent past - the value of the US dollar has served as the reference point for all trade between nations. When the US delinked the US dollar from gold - the US dollar no longer had a point of reference or measuring point. Accordingly, there has been no way to measure the dollar. Mr Greenspan admitted as much recently. Since the US dollar was the reference point of the world - and had no reference point itself - this must imply there has been no valid reference point at all for close on 30 years.

The gold price today is no longer a reflection of the amount of currency in circulation but has become a function of the combined spot demand/ supply price of gold and the price of a futures contract on gold. The value of a futures contract in reality is close to nothing when push comes to shove - as it is simply a paper promise. If the promise cannot be fulfilled - the contract becomes worthless. Following this reasoning - it is possible for the pricing mechanism of gold to break - "down" - during this developing international revaluation process. The futures price of the equation could more accurately reflect it's true value - thereby driving the spot/futures price of gold - down.

On the other hand - the US stock markets (as one example) are priced in dollars. The less each currency unit becomes in "true value" - the more currency units you will require to get that same "asset". Assuming the debts of a country are "monetized" to "pay" them off - rather than having an outright credit and asset collapse - one could find a situation where all prices in the USA go up - including the stock market. This would simply reflect - "inflation". Inflation is after all - purely a monetary phenomenon. If you create more money through the printing of a currency or via the mechanism of monetizing and increasing debt levels - inflation will be the result. This could filter through into the stock markets in the form of increased earnings by companies - simply reflecting the fact that they are earning "more" currency units for their products than they were previously.

Where then, does that leave us regarding the prospects for gold in the year 2001 and onwards - given that we have had no independent means of measuring anything for nearly 30 years - and given that the price of gold is priced using a pricing mechanism other than the amount of US dollars (and ALL other world currencies) in circulation ?

It seems to me one can well expect to see the price of gold first resolve it's own "incorrect" pricing mechanism prior to it being in a position to reflect the true nature of the worldwide currency situation. This would involve the futures contract price of the spot gold equation being driven to zero as the true nature of the futures contracts come to light. This process will probably take place in the face of an expanding worldwide money supply and inflationary situation that will make people realize that all their "value" measurements appear to be floored. As such - a hard currency asset such a gold that cannot be "created out of the blue" will be sought after by all paper assets.

Only then will all assets be more readily measured from a starting point that will be the measurement of all things - namely GOLD. So gold will probably perform "poorly" initially - but will reward "handsomely" thereafter.

Don't be fooled by the "price" of things. Learn to recognise the "value" of things.

Simply Me (01/23/01; 22:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 46283) Honorable Mention
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
For the year 2001, gold's spot price as established by the LBMA will thrash around between $250 and $275 for the first 6-8 months as the Dollar vs. Euro reserve currency battle rages on (with the Euro gaining inch by inch) and paper gold continues to fight it's losing battle. Also, throughout most of the year, the world's medium to small investors, who've finally given up on the US stock market, will be trying one investment vehicle after another and finding little satisfaction (I think the big boys already have their investment transitions complete.)

Sometime around the end of summer...as the Euro strengthens and US$ weakens to parity, the US stock market fails to sustain one rally attempt after another, and US inflation and job lay-offs begin to make front-page news...silver and gold coin sales will begin to climb dramatically in the US. At this point, though the official gold spot price stays within range, we may see higher premiums as the paper gold and physical gold prices begin to part ways.

By the end of the year, US economic news will include stories of how good the economy is in the Euro-zone, the Middle Eastern countries put the finishing touches on their one-common-currency agreement (which is heavily gold & Euro backed) and announce a transition date, and China announces the grand opening of their free gold market.

The drama will not be over by the end of 2001, but those who've been following FOA/Another and USAgold Forum will no longer debate whether gold will rise, but by how much. There will be more talk about the price of physical gold and not so much quoting of the LBMA spot price. One gold ounce will be priced around $350-$375, while the paper gold futures will trade in the $300 range.

The beginning of 2002 will see England joining the Euro block (earlier than expected), and the beginning of the end for the LBMA (evidenced by a widening gap between LBMA spot and physical prices, while the USA begins to debate whether we are in a recession or a depression.

Gold was told she would be set free from her USDollar prison in the 1999 Washington Agreement. In 2001, she will take her first breath of fresh air since Nixon closed the gold window nearly 30 years ago. And by the end of 2002 she will be Queen of Money once more.
simply me

ET (01/20/01; 20:59:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 46032) Honorable Mention
**** 2001 - A Gold Odyssey ****
I come from the camp that believes the dollar/gold relationship is the key. I don't expect the metal to rise unless the dollar is perceived as having lost its credibility as a wealth retention asset. Physical gold demand will not overwhelm the paper market unless it becomes obvious to all that the buck is in trouble in its ability to hold purchasing power better than other currencies.

What signs might we look for to indicate this is taking place?

I would say first of all the world perceives the dollar's strength as being tied to the US economy's strength. Are we not seeing signs of weakness all about? The Fed is pumping money at unheard of rates ($176B in 7 weeks), new layoffs are announced daily, the corporate credit market is in shambles, credit quality at the consumer level is reaching new depths, and businesses are folding at an ever increasing pace. The quickness of this decline is likely a direct function of the leverage in the marketplace. Unless we see some kind of quick fix in the credit markets, I fail to see how a recession/depression will be avoided in the US.

Second, the dollar's strength also lies in its reserve currency status. For the first time in its history as the world's reserve currency, the dollar faces credible competition in the Euro. In other words, investment has somewhere else to go.

Third, the dollar is now suffering from obvious inflation. The banks/government have been masterful at convincing people that inflation hasn't been a problem, but it is becoming apparent to anyone that prices are on the rise, especially energy and food. My favorite indicator, the McDonald's #1 Meal, is trading at a new high of $3.49 this week here in Kansas. Watch out when we break the psychologically important $3.99 level! Even eight-year-old's will have figured out the situation. <g>

It's starting to look like this will be gold's year. Gold's price will likely hinge on whether the stock market can be revived. Considering the profit picture, I cannot see stocks rallying to any great degree. As soon as stocks resume their plunge I would expect the dollar to collapse versus the Euro and Swiss franc, finally freeing gold. People in the US will be looking for some safe haven and will likely turn to gold. We are even hearing talk in the financial media of all places.

Unfortunately for them, physical will be very difficult to come by. I suspect the futures markets will be unable to deliver making physical even more difficult to get their hands on. Obtaining a realistic market price for physical might take some time as the futures would be forced to settle in cash. Physical might be unavailable at any price initially as holders attempt to ascertain the level of currency inflation having already taken place. At any rate, higher prices for physical would seem assured.

I suspect we will see this happen sooner rather than later in the year. Credit markets are in great distress. Attempts at reflation so far have not worked and it is unlikely enough new credit could be implemented to offset the level of malinvestment having already taken residence in the economy. There does come a time when somebody will take a loss. I'm betting the time is near.

auspec (1/19/2001; 14:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 45931)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey? ****
What will the year 2001 bring for the gold markets? Let's start with the definition of an "odyssey" from Webster's: "a long wandering usually marked by many changes of fortune". In this case the gold markets will entail a total loss of fortune and a wandering that will make Moses' look like an afternoon stroll. What is it with you flat-earthers, are you stuck in some time warp or something? Plain and simple-the POG will reach its proper COMMODITY value of $192 in 2001 and stay there, thus vindicating Robt Prechter and bringing him front and center CNBC. Long live King Dollar!

I don't say this lightly , but with careful thought and much study..THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND! What more does one need to know? Let's see, who should I put my money on? 1. Those that have all the gold , make all the rules, and totally control the global economy/mindset. 2. Some flaky, anti-establishment, wishful thinking, internuts with delusions of "goldeur". This GATA group is really something else---some X-Jock, a Jimmy Olson wannabe, and a lawyer/miner taking on the eminent protectors of sound money and utmost principals. I don't see a contest! Give me Rubin, Green$pandex, and Luis Ruykeyser {sp} any day.
What is this foolish gold fixation??? Obsessive compulsive disease? We are in a perpetual prosperity period and you guys shouldn't be rocking the boat. If anything malfunctions it will be YOUR fault. If there was any sort of problem Maria Bartoromo would be telling us loud and clear. I think you hard money guys are overcompensating for other deficiencies in your lives! You know there are medications for OCD and other "failures" {fix that damn erudition}. Just buy the drug stocks like normal folks do, and sit back and await your fortune. Why do you think all these mutual funds/stocks are Federally insured?
Politics? What's to predict? Total competency everywhere one looks. Dubya is there, as well as a couple unofficial "Shadow Presidents", plus the PuppetMasters; what could possibly go wrong? The people with the real brains and credentials have thought all this out fully! Trust them!

Let me make sure I understand upon what this site is basing its premises.Some guy posts anonymously and explains all of the supposed interworkings of the world's monetary system. This guy has an anonymous amigo that further elucidates the other unknown guy's unclear writings, neither of which speak or write the King's English. Put all of this in the context of some ancient Castle/Jousting/Knights and what do you get? What a country! Now they are offering FREE gold and silver. Let's be reasonable here...... It can't be worth much if it's free, RIGHT? Have YOU ever received any free gold?? Stick with the crowd, there's safety in numbers, leave your emotions out of this. If these guys really knew anything they would be on Giraldo or Oprah.
Bottom line--------- 2001 will definitely be "interesting times"!

Got GOLD??
Got GATA??

Topaz (01/19/01; 21:01:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 45959)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Had USAGOLD posed this question in Jan '98, '99, or '00, my "Gold-to-da-Moon!" answer would have been proven incorrect over a similar timeframe.
These last couple of years have increased my respect (for the People & Orginisations who "manage" the affairs of Money and Gold in the "Free" Market) to such a degree that I'm firmly convinced the status-quo can be maintained for "several" more years yet, why already this year the 50bp int. rate reduction has been all but negated in the Market - and so will the next one...and the next, etc.
If my thinking is clear, '01 will be a good Year for "NEW" Tech, DOW, Tech, OIL. Au otoh will underperform.

It all comes down to Fiat management and IMO they're (currently) managing just fine.

JavaMan (1/20/2001; 13:51:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 46003)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
RE:. Will 2001, a market Odyssey, be a positive one for gold or a negative one? Is this the year of the big breakout? More of the same? A disaster? You make the call, support it with knowledge, skill and erudition and the prize is yours!

I don't know about the erudition, but I suspect we will have "More of the same". To wit I quote Al Fulchino's recent post (again): "We calculate all manner of means to understand why gold is not valued higher, when it will go higher etc. Waste of time. Total waste of time. True value of sound money is not a supply and demand issue it is and always has been an honesty issue."

The criteria of the contest states: "We ask contestants to treat the potential economic, political and financial scenarios as a basis for their opinion."

This overlooks the "Moral" scenario from which the economic, political, and financial scenarios extend. While there is some hope that the new administration is, at least relatively, more honest than the previous administration (hard to imagine otherwise), I don't hold much hope for the power system at large in Washington realizing the error of their ways and so I expect it will be business as usual which means "More of the same" for the outlook going forward.

"Statesmen...may plan and speculate for Liberty, but it is religion and morality alone, which can establish the principles upon which Freedom can securely stand." --John Adams

And now for a timely quotation... "The free market requires men and women whose word can be trusted and who have formed personal traits of self-discipline, prudence, and self-denial or the deferment of gratifications. Smaller government requires many of the same qualities so that individuals will not constantly turn to a powerful state to offer them complete security and a cornucopia of favors bought with other people's money." --Robert Bork

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (1/21/2001; 6:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 46047)
****2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
I believe this year will be very positive for gold. Both from the standpoint of a higher price and greater acceptance of gold ownership. More people will realize that they were forced into risky financial endeavors, all of which were truly out of their control. They were forced into financial speculation; the stock market, real estate, collectibles etc., because they could not afford to merely save their increasingly worthless fiat money. Inevitable inflation quickly robs their fiat money of all value, long before they reach their retirement age. Those people that realize this in the first place, and were lured into the purely speculative pursuits under the guise of increasing social acceptance by the Orwellian triangulation of repressive taxation, unrelenting pied piper investment propaganda from entertainment portrayals and news media "reporting", and the freedom afforded to the "little" investor to trade with the Big Boys by the internet, these people will become strong proponents of gold and silver.

It is those people who never felt comfortable with the risk they were assuming by feeling pressured and in reality forced to risk their savings, the collapse or continued slow devaluation of the stock and real estate markets will be a bitter pill to swallow. They will slowly move into the political arena demanding the only answer that history has ever supplied to people in such a situation. That answer is simple: Money has to have INTRINSIC WORTH in order to maintain a STABLE VALUE for social justice to prevail. The fraud of fiat money forces good people to gamble with their savings, just to try to stay ahead of inflation to maintain the purchasing power of their savings.

The system we now have forces the earnings out of the hands of those who work, into the hands of others. This loss of control over ones destiny is most cruel to those who would be content in merely SAVING what they earn. More people will realize that the Euro is backed by 10% gold for sound reason, not gimic. They will also take notice that government to government transfer of wealth is performed with gold, not the fiat money the average person is forced by law to earn and spend. It is this realization as expressed in our political system that will return our country to where the founding fathers launched it; with a monetary unit named a dollar that is fully backed by gold or silver on demand.

The fruits of ones labor from 40 years past will again be as valuable as if that labor was performed today. With a dollar fully backed in gold and silver this will occur even if the money has been kept under the mattress for the past 40 years. This is the honest way of "buying time", in which to reflect on a life lived in comfort and honor, and financially able to further invest in the next generation.
The more people run away from the past, the quicker the past becomes the future. Truth, like fact, always prevails. Gold is forever.

Pandagold (1/21/2001; 10:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 46055)
****2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
First I will give the basis on which my premise on the trend of POG in 2001 is based. Though it may seem a little long, it is necessary to understand, and evaluate, the reason behind what has been happening, is happening, and is about to happen to that 'barbarous relic' as termed by Keynes, at least, in the way I (and my money) see it.

Gold is first and foremost a political metal and, therefore, dependent on 'the government's' overall agenda ­ and that covers a wide spectrum, not merely monetary or fiscal.

I am also using the term 'government' very loosely and not referring to any particular national government. The world has come a long way since there was any significant relevance concerning major international issues and individual national governments. And it (the relevance) grows less each day.

True, certain governments are used more than others, at particular times, in order to affect an agenda, in the same way that a carpenter or other tradesman might select the right tool, from his tool box, for the job in hand.

We currently look to the United States for direction, because that country, at present, (note I stress present) is the best tool for the job.

Sometimes a tool, through over use, can become less reliable, but, through habit, we find it hard to let go and replace though, for practical reasons, we see the need. Sometimes we can't replace it immediately as an alternative isn't available. (Are you beginning to follow the analogy?)

The international scene is, currently, in the process of metamorphosis. The US and the dollar cannot be replaced overnight. In fact, because of the present tenuous international financial and economic structure, only by treading slowly, and carefully, can any changes be made - as one would pass through a minefield if one hoped to reach the other side in one piece.

What we are now seeing is the 'transfer of power' from dollar diplomacy to Euro. The dollar is over worked and tired. The US by its, perceived, belligerence (depending on which side of the fence you are sitting) on the world stage has become an embarrassment, and hinderence, to those that are promoting and projecting the 'new world order (though, they made it so).

The union of Europe, though a dream of many over the ages, is still an untried experiment in the process of development. So also is its new currency that doesn't take tangible form
until January 2002 (not too far away now).

Two large and nationalistic countries like France and Germany do not give up their beloved francs and marks lightly. They know that once done, it is almost certainly irrevocable. The key behind the success of the experiment has been to dip in one toe at a time ­ hence the wait for the actual surrender of the 'national' coinage.

There is also the tradition of currency backed by gold inherent in the European psyche. France, or should I say, the Frenchman, in particular, has a long historical love affair with gold, and a strong suspicion of fiat money. He has only to look, and reflect, eastwards at his German neighbour to know what can happen to fiat money in hyperinflation; then south to Italy where the lira has become a farce ­ an unemployed from the Bronx could almost make it as an Italian 'millionaire' with his welfare hand out.

Against this, we have Switzerland with its (so far) strong, gold backed, Franc and years of financial and economic stability.

As stated, we are in a transition period. Transitions, in general, take time ­ the transition from an agricultural society to an industrial one took a good century before it was firmly established. There is also a strange phenomenon associated with such transitions, the early days are hardly noticed, or identified, as radical change taking place. People are just aware that something is happening that is making them feel uncomfortable, and they hit out at anything in their way with which they are familiar and they can believe, or told to believe, is responsible.

There is not just ONE reason why the price of gold is manipulated ­ in this case ­ held down. Because of cause and effect, and one effect being another's cause, there is rarely just one reason for anything, and this is especially true in the world of economics and finance.

One of those reasons, though, and a main one, is that in order for the Euro to take root and grow strong, there must be no other drain that sucks away its food supply. If gold had been at the mercy of free market forces, where do you think the food (money) would have been sucked­ long before now? Certainly, I am sure you'll agree, not by the Euro.

This would be a disaster for the whole European experiment. Though it may have delighted many, in particular, the proverbial, goldbugs.

Remember, I stated that there is never just one reason. Time does not allow me to cover other reasons, but there is a number of other important ones which has allowed those with the agenda, to get a lot of mileage from this particular 'deceit '.

Because we are posed with answering the question ­ will 2001 be favourable or not for gold, the transfer of power from the dollar to the Euro, and the establishment of the Euro as a dominant reserve currency, is perhaps the reason offering the greatest influence.

The agenda, of which I have mentioned, is NOT something NEW. It is very old, it is just that it is now in its final, and most delicate, stage. If you accept this, then you will understand that very little is not well premeditated and, consequently, various scenarios and emergencies planned for.

For instance, it would be obvious the 'manipulation' would eventually become discernable and then VERY discernable. But even this, on the surface negative, could be turned into a positive (an art for which they have a penchant, and expertise). Big money outside the Cabal, the type that could have sent alarm bells ringing ( and software 'flashing'), would observe the writing on the wall 'KEEP OFF GOLD', the power of the perpetrators recognised, and would find another outlet for the preservation of their wealth instead of fruitlessly complaining, and moaning about 'what's happening to the price of the precious metal'.

We have seen a dramatic rise in the other key PM.s, some you hardly ever heard of
a decade ago. A number of weak excuses have been given for their apparent defying of gravity, but the most shallow is the one that they are used in the automotive industry ­ and this at a time we are seeing huge auto manufacturing cut-backs on an international scale.

Platinum and Palladium have been used for the preservation of 'serious' money to replace gold and silver. Reason? They are not, by tradition, political and not associated with 'fear of inflation', by the masses. The demand and activity in the physical has caused the paper dealings to flourish, allowing greater participation than would otherwise have been possible.

At this point, a word about silver would be appropriate. In order to diffuse the focus on just gold, and its manipulation, it needed a bedfellow ­ silver was the appropriate choice. It really is as simple as that. It is embarrassing now, but how would it have been, for the manipulators, if silver had also been reaching for the stars?

So, wither gold in 2001? This year will be the turning point for gold to start catching up on some lost ground. The hold will be released a little, and in the process there will be some volatility ­ not wide swings, but swings.

The Euro should reach dollar parity, and be showing strength by the end of summer. The dollar will be obviously declining. There will be volatility on the stock markets to keep people guessing, and keep many 'locked in'. Mining, along with other commodity shares will be moving up which will seem strange as there is a perceived general economic slowdown ­ especially in the US.

What will really be happening is that serious money will be taking its positions ready for the great march forward again, but this new economic era will not be in a way that repeats the past, and not with the US calling the shots ­ or should I say, the US being used as the voice that calls the shots. (Detect the subtle difference?).

What we should never do is to let what appears to be the negative blind and frustrate us so that we don not see the positive. In Chinese, the character for crisis is also the same as for opportunity. We will eventually see that what has happened is good for the gold industry. It has forced belt tightening, searching for cheaper methods, and amalgamation ­ something that has been going on in other industries for some time.

2001 will see the worst over for gold and the mining companies that have stayed the course and are now leaner, meaner, and through acquisitions, bigger and stronger

The POG, I expect to finish up 2001 around $300 to $350. However, there will be much volatility, for a number of reasons, and some swings may appear wide, but when viewed on at least a five-year chart will be seen more in context.

.2002, however, will be the year that really provides the rewards for those who got in early while the blood was running in the streets (or down the mine shafts) and we should see gold up in the $400's.

While this is still below where it could, and should, be (there will always be manipulation, though perhaps more covertly) we must remember that the mining companies will now have a lower cost base and therefore be more profitable, and highly responsive to any gold price increase.

I will leave you with the following:

"..You have to chose (as a voter) between trusting to the natural stability of gold, and the natural stability, and honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And, with due respect to those gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system shall last, to vote for GOLD."

(George Bernhard Shaw)

ThaiGold (01/22/01; 03:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46122)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Looking up "Odyssey" in my WebSite's Dictionary link, it brought forth:
[quote] od·ys·sey n., pl. od·ys·seys.
(1) An extended adventurous voyage or trip.
(2) An intellectual or spiritual quest: an odyssey of discovery. (After the Odyssey. a Homeric epic recounting the wanderings of Odysseus after the fall of Troy. From Greek Odusseia; From Odusseus; Odysseus.) [unquote]

And, as I recall, "2001" is the true beginning of the new Millennium.

So that's an apt combination of words to fit an Essay around. Since we as a specie, are now embarking upon an Epic Journey. Into unknown waters. And into unknown times. Yet we know that history always repeats itself, and there's the old adage that "The criminal always returns to the scene of the crime". Hence, maybe our Journey will just be a RePlay of the same old stuff.

Yes. I believe that. The same old stuff. Manipulation of the Price of Gold (POG) downward, but within a "range" that suits the manipulator's needs.

Manipulators.?. Some believe there are none. Ostrich-like. Head in sand. Others, like GATA (Gold AntiTrust Action Committee) have done incredible in-depth research, and have come to their own conclusions as to who is behind the manipulations, and why. GATA refers to "them" collectively as "The Cabal".

Myself, have a somewhat different theory on the whole affair. It includes many of the players that GATA is targeting, but not for the reasons that GATA has concluded. Nope. I have different reasons. And most of them appear borderline "legal". Or very hard to prove. I wish GATA the best, but believe they may be frustrated with their eventual (court) results, or, at worst, simply Barking Up the Wrong Tree. But this is not an Essay about GATA.

My basic theory was recently outlined and posted as the first-part of this Contest. In post: ThaiGold (01/22/01; 00:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 46112)

In that post, I explained that it would seem to be an easy matter for some super-rich entity or group to manipulate the POG downward, using the COMEX Futures Market and LBMA (London Bullion Merchant Association) for example. Sell-Stop orders are routinely placed therein (COMEX) to protect holders of Contracts against adverse down spikes. If a sell-stop is triggered, it sells gold into the market. Paper gold. But still considered as gold. Deliverable gold, if/when push comes to shove.

Such entity, if they owned enough of their own gold (to backup their paper sell contracts) could flood the market with gold, at any time, in virtually any amount, and drive the POG downward. Way downward. Again and again.

Then, at the target low point, begin discretely buying back their flooded gold, and at the same time buy whatever additional gold they wished. At the lowest prices imaginable. A bargain. A contrived bargain. A legal bargain.

Why would they do this.?. Because they have too much paper US Dollars on hand. And they don't trust paper fiat money. Can you blame them for that.?. I can't.

How do they get so many paper US Dollars.?. That's easy: From selling their product. What's their product.?. Answer: Oil. And Dope. Lotsa money in both. Not the same people. Until they begin the Futures Manipulations. At that point, it becomes a symbiotic relationship between all kinds of famous entities. Sort of a "You scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours; and then I'll try not to stab your back before you don't stab my back" relationship. Rather fragile.

Yet paradoxically, rather robust. It has thrived for years. Since January 1996 by my best estimate. Look at the long term POG charts. It's plain as day when it all started. The first week of January, in 1996. See for yourself.

Next, there is a BandWagon effect: The OIL cartel, needs to do their thing via established market participants. Big Banks; Brokerages; Bullion Banks; and with the help of (wink-wink) various Central Banks; Government regulators and indeed perhaps Government officials at the highest levels. Example, the US Treasury Department via the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund). They have lotsa power; connections; and liquidity (both gold and paper US Dollars) with which to back all the other members of the manipulation machine. Let's call them what they are: "Insiders".

Nobody is always perfectly honest. Most everyone has their price. Or at least has an agenda; or marching orders from someone else (higher) so-inclined. And everyone likes to make a Fast Buck. (Except me, of course. And ...er ... You.)

These then are the BandWagon Manipulators. They (using their insider knowledge and connections) often FrontRun or parallel run the original Cartel's flooding of the markets. Why don't the Cartels complain.?. Because the FrontRunners are helpful in flooding the market with more paper gold. So we have three (or more) floods coming into the markets regularly: (1) The Cartel, trying to do their thing: Oil-to-Dollars-to-Gold Exchange. (2) Market speculators being Sell-Stop-Lossed out of their "Long" positions. (3) Insider FrontRunners, always ready to ride the BandWagon in the gold flood.

That's quite a lot of gold, coming into a market, even if it's paper. Then, add to it all the craziness of paper gold options, puts, calls, deltas, derivatives and who knows what else they can invent. All very profitable. If timed right. The Trend is Your Friend. Theirs too. And they know it. But you don't. So easy. Who establishes the (down) Trend.?. They do. You wanna buck that Trend..?. No.

Hence, as I see it, the year 2001 is going to be mostly more of the same. It's been very beneficial to the US economy by making the POG appear lower. And that's an "indicator" of non-inflation. The Government loves it. So they look the other way. Or even assist. It's a very interwoven symbiotic symphony. All of them playing the same tune. All of them sharing in the ticket revenue.

Most in this Forum would agree, that the previous (Clinton/Rubin/Sommers/FED) administration used every trick in the book to contrive the stock market bubbles; issued fake CPI numbers; and pumped up liquidity; interest rates and whatever else they could dream up to make the economy look good. For them.

Now we have a new (Bush) Administration. A new Treasury Secretary. But the same FEDeral Reserve Bank Chairman (Alan Greenspan). The SEC and CFTC will be lap dogs as usual to their friends in high places. Mostly the FrontRunners, and the FED and NY FED honchos. One big happy clique. Don't rock the boat. Be as fake honest as possible. Deny everything. Look the other way. Rake in the Bucks.

Musical Chairs. House of Cards. Call it whatever you like. But it will continue.

GATA feels there's a huge "Banking Derivative Crisis". They are probably right. The whole thing is so intertwined and crosslinked that if it comes apart at any seam, it'll look like Championship Chinese Dominoes. Zillions of them. Poof.!.

So my "More of the Same" projection has that Caveat. If the whole thing blows up in their face, there may be no way to save any of it. A worldwide calamity. Financial volcano. It could blow at any time. Be prepared. Get physical gold while you can, at todays faked low prices. Bargain of a lifetime.!.

And for sure, Silver too. Because the only thing, ONLY THING, that can put the world's economies back together will be a Hard Currency Standard. That means Gold and Silver coinage minted and circulating as Legal Tender once again. And Redeemable Gold and Silver Certificates. And redeemable Gold and Silver digital money. And sensible, limited, tightly controlled Bank Credit expansion based upon it. Like in the old days. The previous Millennium.

Will all this come about within 2001.?. Or within our lifetime.?. Answer: Yes.

Now you have been alerted. I told you so. Will you believe me.?. Answer: No.

"Odyssey" (1) An extended adventurous voyage or trip. (2) An intellectual or spiritual quest: an odyssey of discovery.

All aboard.!. Hoist the Main'sl. And the Mizzen.

(3) Gold and Silver is your lifeboat. Get some. Get more. In 2001.

Cordially,
ThaiGold

Canuck (01/22/01; 18:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 46173)
**** 2001- - A Gold Market Odyssey ****
I believe we are the cusp of major change.

After 8 years of Clinton administration that was suspect in it's intentions I feel the change of office will set gold free. I have a notion that President Bush will "want to pop the credit bubble, drop the dollar, and let gold rise sooner rather than later. In other words, get the nastiness over early while you can still stick the mess on Slick, then play the hero who restores the economy on a sound footing after the profligate Clinton years." (1)

The US asset bubble has been bought, not earned. Each and every 'sub-bubble' is at great risk; the entire financial sysytem has "become leverage on leverage, speculation on speculation, piling risk on risk ­ the proverbial "house of cards"". (2)

Corporate America is now confronted with decelerating growth, decelerating profitability and accelerating debt. Consumers, who account for 2/3rds of economic activity suddenly realize the predicament they are in. Mortgaged, margined and indebted to the hilt, suddenly the 'wealth effect' is vaporizing. The 'powers that be' are "dealing with extreme structural distortions, both financial and economic. The public is completely oblivious, and policymakers stunningly unprepared. This is, most regrettably, the worst-case scenario developing right in front of our eyes." (3)

The soft landing/hard landing scenario will be played out, IMHO before end of 2Q01. Today's gold stock numbers signal something, perhaps Mr. Bush has already let something out of the bag. I am so happy to see the change of administration, not in the Democratic/Republican sense but merely that possibly, maybe possibly some shady characters will be booted out. Mr. Bush now has opportunity to clear the field, set the record straight and tell America and the world what has been going on the last 8 years. I think number crunchers know the truth, we'll see if Mr. Bush really intends
to instill fairness, equality and honesty across the board.

And finally for Mr. Bush to contemplate. "The system is literally "at the end of its rope," precariously left today with the financial sector locked in a self-destructing process of leveraging, the only means of sustaining this momentous bubble. I just can't come to see how this ends in any other way than disaster. I don't want to yell "fire" in a crowded theater and I am mindful of the seriousness of the current environment. But I will be honest about this: I don't like the looks of this one bit and am particularly worried about how this is developing." (4)

(1) poster G-E
(2,3,4) prudentbear.com

Tree in the Forest (01/22/01; 20:19:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 46180)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
This is my first post here and I would like to take this opportunity to thank you all for the very sound course in economics and finance. It is very much appreciated. I have taken other such courses, mostly while attending the School of Hard Knocks and this forum is infinitely preferable.

I have seen many predictions as to the future of the markets over the last several years. They've almost all been wrong, in timing if nothing else. I've come to believe that it can actually do people a disservice to make these predictions. In June of 1997, I sat across from a man at a financial conference who told me that the end was nigh and that by year end, the market would collapse. He said, "Trust me. I'm over 80 years old and I have made millions for many people". I trusted him. He was wrong and I lost money. One guru actually trotted out a note from his dead father while predicting the end in 1998. He too was wrong. Again I lost money. This last guru has a Phd. It didn't help.

I have come to believe that when the interests of many diverse groups are involved, there are so many possible outcomes, and so many unpredictable events, that several predictions may be within the realm of possibility. Kind of like Wheeler's infinite number of outcome universes. Unless you're on the inside, it's all just a guess, educated or not and even insiders don't always get their way. And as someone at this august round table recently stated, mere good logic is insufficient to being right. Therefore, if the very well spoken and erudite knights here assembled will forgive my impudence, I feel justified in making some predictions based on two of the four Nostradamus quatrains originally posted by "Ben" over on Gold Eagle (Nov. 23, 22:55). My interpretation differs from the translator's and from Ben's but so what? One prediction is as good as another right? Thank you, Ben, for posting this.

(Century VIII, Quatrain 14):

The great credit of gold and silver great abundance,
Shall blind honor by lust,
The offense of the adulterer shall be known,
Which shall come to his great dishonor.

My interpretation: The paper shorting, forward selling and physical dumping of gold and silver has caused the distortion of these markets to the betterment of a few dishonorable players. The adulterer could certainly be our illustrious ex-president, (I think he qualifies!) but adulteration also has the meaning of pollution or dilution (of physical gold). The adulterer could be Goldman Sachs. In any case, the manipulators in these markets shall be exposed.

(Century III, Quatrain 13):

In the ark, lightning, gold and silver melted.
Of two prisoners, one shall eat up the other,
The greatest of the city shall be laid down,
When the navy that was drowned shall swim.

I cannot interpret the first line but it may have to do with the discovery of one of the Arks of the Covenant (as you recall from the bible, there were two). The two prisoners in the second line are clearly gold and silver. They are prisoners of the Comex. "One shall eat up the other" could mean one of two things. Gold could greatly exceed silver in value, or the other way around. Since gold usually does exceed the value of silver, such a prediction is of no consequence and therefore, in my interpretation, not worthy of consideration. I will predict the second. Comex will default on silver first and it will exceed the value of gold as Comex paper pushes gold to new lows. This will be the time to swap silver for gold. If silver were to exceed the value of gold, it would be very damaging to the ECB as it would erode the psychological value of their gold reserves. Platinum and Palladium already have done this by exceeding the price of gold but silver would be the last straw. This psychological issue is important. Since the Euro is not a true gold standard currency with exchangeability to gold directly, what purpose the reserves? Only their psychological support that in an emergency, they would be available for settlement of the paper notes. I believe FOA has touched on this issue. This issue cannot be ignored. The ECB would be forced to re-value their gold to the true trading value which is something in excess of the $574 that the US secretly values it in settlement. This is why so many strong hands are invested in silver. They will ride silver up, then change elevators to ride gold. The third line refers to the hot shots of New York finance. They will be brought low as their complicity in all that has transpired is exposed. And the last line refers to the destruction of the US Navy. It is a prediction of war. But as at Pearl Harbor, the Navy will ultimately triumph.

The timetable for all of this? Soon! Am I right? Who knows. Mere logic is not enough to assure success but predicting is definitely fun. I must sign off now as I grow fatigued. As Yogi Berra once said, "Predicting is very difficult, especially of the future." ;-)

Dollar Bill (01/22/01; 22:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 46187)
***********Herald of the Odyssey 2001**************
Bold Action Knights! Some would say Nay! Cling to the past and the strength of the Fortress. But the enemy of old is a shape shifter who will not be frozen in one form.
On the coinage of the Realm, is the claim "IN GOD WE TRUST".
*The "Indispensible" Nation, the one who by accident and by design, plays a role of Hope and shines a Beacon of Freedom
while riddled with the assaults and influences of the evil one inside and out.
*It is one thing to joust with windmills, and another to identify the real enemy and the real nature of the playing field and the game that is afoot.
*Some country songs romanticize pickup trucks, some men romanticize currency. Knowing nothing of the past, some men romanticize the short, cruel, way of life that men of even the recent past endured.
*Playing chess with it's self created enemy, the god prods men toward kindness while the devil takes his due.
*Some Mortal men and Knights, taking the risk of assessing which action is the influence of the devils' and which is the gods', claim gold is the truth and fiat is the evil.
*Families hope for a better life, prayers of millions have cried out for centuries for a better life. How that prayer is answered, against all the wiles of the evil one, and inspite of the natural failings of men, is the real game here. Knights would want to always somehow know where thier leader stands and where his hand is.
*Other Knights, having fought in wars against evil in other forms, take the prudent action that is presented to them as they see it. At this time, the die is cast, cast imagination aside, for better or worse, for evil or good, the course has been chosen.
A Knight of another Table has sent a message. I bring it to you now. Knight Rubin, recalls a crucial step in the Asian crisis: "You used to be able to organise a relatively small number of banks in order to develop some kind of temporary relief so the banking system could work through its problems, but with banks being replaced by capitol markets and millions of derivitive bond holders, there's no equivalent way to organize the creditors, There is no way now to organise a standstill that might prevent things from cratering."
*Knights, the Samurai in Japan are clamoring for thier .25%
interest rate to be cut because they are in fact at the edges of deflation. America MUST shop. Fannie and Freddie, two weapons of credit creation, are targeting a 2 Trillion dollar increase in household lending. Targeting Blacks and single moms in particular, for home ownership. That 2 trillion dollar weapon will keep the walls of the fiat world intact and the price of gold contained at least through this coming year.
*Knights, knowing the dire circumstance, those in charge of our allies in Europe, have thrown thier lot with the Dollar. The B.I.S. has taken the role of managing and reporting the Derivitive weapon numbers, one reason is that they are not bound to release data by anyone. Lower ministers may say otherwise, but America is leading, and there is no turning back except to embrace destruction.

Saxulum^ (1/23/2001; 7:27:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 46216)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Food for contemplating recent gold history?

Aah.MK made me crawl from under my little rock
Note: English is not my mothertongue, so please bear with me.

My brain is not hindered by any significant knowledge of the PM market mechanics,
so feel free to correct any flaw in facts, assumptions or logica.

There has been quite a lot of speculation about where the Fed's and CB's physical gold is stored.
Fact is that, at the advent of WWII, several European CB's have shipped major parts of their holdings to the USA for safety reasons.
In a recent tv-interview a spokesman from the Dutch CB stated frankly that, up to this day, almost all of their physical gold was stored in the USA. He made it sound like that was the only logical place for a.o. (West-) European CB's, considering the turmoil in this area during the last century (including ColdWar aftermath).
So much of this gold is still not returned to their original owners.
Add to that the rumours about the Swiss CB's yearlong fruitless efforts to get theirs back in their own vaults,
then, all of a sudden, the windmills of my mind start to produce highly speculative scenario's.
The original (30's-40's) contracts for storage were made at a time that the dollar was backed by a fixed gold price of $35. It then sounds logical that there was a clause in those contracts that in certain circumstances, this gold could also be paid back in an equivalent of dollars.
Nixon's 1971 (?) decision to end the gold/dollar redemption, could thus have created a very complicated legal catch22 situation, where the legitimate owners (CB's) were no longer interested in getting dollars for their gold, whereas that would be the only logical choice for the FED (or Treasury?) from that moment on.
One escape for the legal owners could then be to simply sell this gold for the much higher free market value.
Could this have been a possible cause that has led to the Washington Agreement that seemed to suddenly have fallen out of the blue sky. Selling it in a disciplined way to avoid depressing the paper market price. And then buying the physical at the same or a little lower price? Controlling the papermarket price would be somehow necessary in such scenario.
Lots of details come to mind if only time allowed. (Is there no such thing as a derivative for time?)
Could this scenario be a nasty little complicating facet in a smooth transition from a worn out dollar to a new Euro as world currency.
Is there somehow a foundation in there to build upon for an Odyssey of gold into the 21th century? I think so...
---
"Always assume incompetence, before looking for conspiracy." -- Machiavelli.

Canuck Gold (01/23/01; 15:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 46252)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
Personally, I've been waiting for the price of gold to rebound for the last two and a half years and in the interim I've witnessed a whole slew of circumstances which had the potential to trigger such an event. Other that the Washington Agreement, which blindsided most people, nothing of any significance ever happened. Even the explosion following the WA quickly subsided. I'm probably preaching to the converted, but there are powerful forces (people) at work who think there is more profit to be made by a declining price than a climbing one. Things are complicated even further by the fact that the Clinton administration presided over the last eight years and so many strange events took place that were never adequately explained that it's easy to believe that a fantasy island mentality was orchestrated.

Now that GW is in the White House, will things change? Poor George is caught between a rock and a hard place because if he tampers too much with the institutions and policies that I believe were set in place to foster the la la land mentality, the whole thing will come crashing down and he will be the scapegoat.

So what's going to happen? If I could predict the future with any accuracy, I'd have been off sitting in the sun somewhere long ago instead of shivering in the cold but I'll give it my best shot.

The US economy is actually the entity caught between a rock and a hard place because the economy is slowing and there are not many options available to turn it around. In fact there are probably only two, which are mutually exclusive - keep the dollar strong or lower interest rates. The fed has already indicated their inclination to lower interest rates and another 1/4 or 1/2 point drop has been predicted before the end of the month. That should help to keep things going for a little while longer but the American people are so far in debt that it isn't going to prevent them from tightening their belts and sitting it out for a while, especially as the fear of job loss has reared it's ugly head again. Slowly but surely, the economy will go into recession and the US equity markets will continue into a sustained bear market. This will in turn cause the US dollar to decline as foreign investors look for other means of asset growth or, more likely, preservation. Whether this will all happen this year is still an open question, but it will happen before things turn around. The other option, to keep the dollar strong would also keep things going for a little while longer but the eventual decline would be much more severe and be more difficult to contain. So, the US had better steel itself for a decline in its economy and its dollar no matter what actions TPTB take.

What will this do for the price of gold? Well, at some point the serious investors (and later the masses, who always miss the boat) will awaken to the fact that gold has been so suppressed for so long that, at the very least, it would be a good vehicle for wealth preservation and may even show a profit while the world rights itself. When every other market is in decline, where else can people put their money and have any hope of preserving their wealth. The explosion in the price will come when the masses start to jump on the bandwagon, as happened in 1980. They'll be a little skittish at first because they've been burned so many times in the past. Then greed will take over as always and away we go. When will this happen? I wish I knew. But I'm a patient man who has followed this forum for over two years now, and I believe that the tide will turn our way as inevitably as the ocean tide turns. If I was pressed, I would predict that the price of gold will pass $300 by late summer and continue on an upward trend from that point onwards. Will it surpass its previous record within the next two years? I doubt it but who knows how quickly and serverely the tide will turn?

RossL (01/23/01; 16:48:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 46258)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
In order to obtain the maximum amusement value for the forum readers in Jan. 2002, this 2001 Odyssey is written in the past tense.

The year began with the first of the Alan Greenspan FED panic interest rate moves and George "Dubya" Bush assuming the presidency. Bush pushed through a tax cut to the relief of Wall Street, and the stock markets responded with a temporary reversal of the bear market that had crushed the NASDAQ in 2000. The honeymoon ended by late summer, however, despite several more FED panic interest rate cuts. The bear returned with a vengeance as several notable large-scale corporate bankruptcies shook Wall Street and the world markets. The populace of the western world finally learned what that old saying "pushing on a string" meant.

The year 2001 was an infliction point for the gold market, marking a 20 year bottom and a sharp reversal. It was quite stunning for the 99% of the western world who believed the "barbarous relic" story that the western press had told for years.

In the first part of the year we saw heavy increases in the paper gold short position every time the Fed lowered rates. The hedge funds believed in the fictional "Greenspan put" as they leveraged their index fund and currency positions with short paper gold positions. It had worked for years and they had faith in Black-Scholes and their trading programs. They just weren't quite ready for the lightning strike that hit in the autumn of 2001. The sharp drop in the US dollar and a string of bankruptcies devastated the bond market, which brought on the now-famous cross-cascading derivative defaults. The lack of liquidity and caused all those major banks to close their doors until the merger legislation was passed. Alan Greenspan really met his match when the longs asked for delivery on those 125,000 COMEX gold contracts!

Of course, the astute USAGOLD readers had plenty of time to exchange their now-devaluated Federal Reserve notes and now-worthless mutual funds for gold coins, and they lived happily ever after.

Genoo (01/23/01; 18:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 46271)
******A GOLD MARKET ODYSSEY*****
The US dollar, the 'people's' stock market or NASDAQ, and the American economy have all tilted downwards and are currently sliding toward the middle of nowhere...and all three could break sharply to the downside at any time...my guess though, is that this will not occur for the next 1-3 months.

Politically, the US citizenry are still breathing a sigh of relief with the recognition that Bubba really is gone and is no longer in place to act out his sexual conflicts on the world stage, to the humiliation of his country. At the same time, the highly undervalued and IMO even more highly unknown quantity [so no wonder many refer to him as W, as one with only a sliver identity], hasn't been in place long enough to show his hand.

However if will not be long because financially, the California Crisis is front and centre and it now appears that it will be the first domestic test of the new presidency. No matter what dynamics become clear...and my guess is that George Senior will be pulling the strings...the method deployed in dealing with the California scenario may be very telling and may in fact be the prototype for the style of management seen in the next four years. Again just a guess, but I expect to see any socialist trimmings to be sharply cut and an entrepenurial style to emerge...if so, the solution will be quick and sure and definitely not painless.

As for gold, there will be little change in the next few weeks but I expect the fundamental issues to more determine its price by year's end...as the invisible hand deftly sifts and sorts out the garbage.

working-kirk (01/24/01; 00:29:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 46287)
**** 2001 -- A Gold Market Odyssey ****
I think the price of gold will rise sooner and faster than anyone expect. I think it will happen in April and that is due to two other commonities. Oil and Silver.

There is a shortage in oil coming thanks to Saddam slowing of oil shipments. While the slowdowns happened in December
Due to shipping and refining, it won't hit the marketplace till late Feb / Early March. See the link above for details

This will cause oil to go to at least $40.00 a barrel.

The second is silver

The price of silver has been going up slowly and the short are going to have to come up with some silver. Only the silver bank is running dry. The government probably think is has more inventory than what actually in the vault. Lat year handy and Harman went bankrupt. They held 2.5 million ounces of silver in their vaults for the U.S. Mint and that silver is GONE. But I would be willing to bet the Government is still carrying that inventory on its books.

Now what happen when you think you have more morey in the checking account than you actually do? You overdraw your account. The government is about to overdraw it accounts thinking it has 2.5 million ounces of silver than it actually does.

What happens when you overdrawn your account? You pay substancial penities and fees. Your bank has service charges and you have to pay $25.00-$50.00 to the store where your checks bounced. The govenment is about to pay that price and pay it in gold.

If the price of oil shoot up and the silver goes to the moon but gold goes nowhere, that people are going to start buying
gold as a bargain because silver and oil has gone, gold will be any day now.

© 2001 All material is copyrighted property of the indicated contributor, presented at USAGOLD by permission. All rights reserved.

Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 P.O. Box 460009 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors!

We invite you to contact our trading desk for quotes and purchase information. 1-800-869-5115 00-800-8720-8720 6:00am to 6:00pm MtnTime; Mon-Fri admin@usagold.com

USAGOLD Rated A+