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It started here, with the announcement....
USAGOLD (03/29/01; 11:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51003)
The New Fifth Horseman: A CALL TO CONTEST. . . .
Knights and Ladies of this Table -- one and all. . . . . .
A posting contest of erudition, fact and fancy is in order. One demanding of your greatest posting skills. . . .
We have come a long way on this journey of knowledge and understanding and these contests have contributed mightily toward this end. But no contest has carried the long lasting benefits and continuous interest like the Fifth Horseman competition (April, 1999) which I believe produced some of the best posts ever published at this site. In that competition, we found Rising Oil camped with the other four over that distant hill beyond these castle walls. We knew that hoary visage would wreak havoc. Now, as you know, this Fifth Horseman has torched many a village along the way (Rising from $10 to $30) and driven prices higher everywhere we look. . .and his deadly work is not done yet.
This Horseman, Rising Oil, remains conjoined with Three others, who,though resting quietly near the fire still theaten nevertheless, poised and ready to wreak havoc at the slightest provocation:
The Asian Contagion (now gone international, i.e. Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, et al)
Euro Introduction (We'll add the Strike Force to the currency)
The Stock Market Meltdown (In progress. . .)
But what is this . . .
In a cloud of dust One of the Five now gallops away n'er to be seen again. . . .Y2K -- having done its deadly damage and contributed mightily to the gold demand -- has vanished in the night.
And brings us to what this contest is all about. . . .
We must now endeavor once again name a Fifth to replace the One who has slinked away. Undoubtedly there are many candidates to fill this evil role. . . .
Remember: The Horsemen are not what drives Price but what will drive Demand for Gold in the future. . . .Gold, the Protector, the Vessel of our Wealth, the one addition to our portfolios that will be there should any of these Horseman gain the Day. . . . So keep gold Demand in mind when you write your contest entry.
So that is the Contest to be weighed over the course of the next Five days. Who is this Fifth Horseman who can now be seen galloping into the Horsemen's camp over yonder hill -- this Fifth Threat?? And what is the nature of the threat he represents?
The Castle Treasury has authorized issuance of one German 20 Mark gold coin to the winner and one U.S. Silver Eagle each to two runners-up. All entries must be made by Monday, April 2, 2001, 5pm in the Mountains (U.S.)
And the Winner is...
canamami! for his post on "Boomer Demographics"
While his choice for the "Fifth Horseman" didn't carry the ominous aspect that we look for in these Horsemen, it nevertheless earned the gold because it was a tight, well-written essay that accomplished the contest's goal of identifying a strong and viable future source for gold demand -- clearly the most important objective in these Horseman contests. We have therefore elected to overlook the absence of the "specter" aspect in awarding the gold to canamami for his excellent post, as you can read for yourself when you scroll below.
We were looking for"Systemic Risk" as our new Fifth Horseman, and several of the runners-up (we couldn't draw the line at just two as originally planned) at least skirted this problem or touched some primary aspect of Systemic Risk. As we see it, any one of a number of threats could evolve to an all-out systemic breakdown, and in a sense, the Fifth Horseman is the embodiment of the other Four:
1. the utitlity problem as it affects the U.S. banking system, (Y2K Revisited)
2. an epidemic of third world currency meltdowns which will likely threaten domestic bank balance sheets and eventually end up at the door of Wall Street's big international banks, (The Asian Contagion Goes International.)
3. the on-going stock market washout which is eroding balance sheets worldwide and turning many loans upside-down, (Already a Horseman but insofar as stock market losses create gold investors.)
4. the erosion of financial firm balance sheets due to bad derivative bets which could explode the entire banking and financial system if defaults begin to roll from hedge funds to the banks, or vice versa, i.e. the LTCM Syndrome
5. currency flight from the United States and repatriation (Euro Introduction)
6. the over-extended nature of the bullion banking business and the pressure it will exert on already stressed gold supplies. (Could almost qualify for a Horseman in itself. The Standard Bank opinion that gold production could fall 35% by 2008 could have a direct bearing on the situation. The reason for the drop is the lead time required to permit a mine and bring it to production -- a situation Black Blade alluded to in USAGOLD Msg #51839. In a private conservation with the erudite Professor von Braun, he made me [MK] aware of this development which I had missed. Standard makes its estimates based on 2500 tonnes of mine output. If they are correct, mine production would be cut by 875 tons to 1625 tonnes. If estimates that 1000 tonnes from mine production have already been fowarded are correct, the shortage could be devastating to the gold carry trade. If Standard is looking at this, others must be as well, and we could see a change in bullion bank circumstances and behavior overnight as the reality sinks in. Those who don't move to square their positions run the risk of "Total Default".)
Canamami makes this insightful assessment:
"Not only are equities not viewed as a good investment, but losses mean they have lost their cachet as a form of savings. Also, debt-based instruments will eventually lose their cachet because of negative rates of return and credit/default risk. That leaves gold. The POG is beaten down so far, it should increase as money finally starts chasing gold again. The rise in the POG will generate interest some buzz, and more buying interest. Also, physical gold has no $20,000 or $60,000 (in Canada it's $60,000) insurance ceiling on safety deposits; physical gold solves the credit/default risk problem. Gold does not need to justify its valuation on a P/E basis, as equities must eventually do. Finally, as more people own gold, the government will be less inclined to artificially suppress the POG because such actions will impoverish the politically powerful boomers. Also, suppressing the POG would create a negative wealth effect as we're now experiencing with the equities markets."
Ultimately, gold will be sought by the Boomers for the same reasons its always been sought by portfolio diversifiers -- it is an asset to which there is attached no liability. It is a stand alone asset which does not rely on another individual (and/or institution) for value.
Congratulations (and Silver Eagles) are also extended to our selections for Runners up. These posters and their choices for the Fifth Horseman are as follows:
R Powell -- "loss of confidence in paper
Econoclast -- "inevitability (among the fiat dollar and derivative based banking and financial structure...the end of its timeline)"
CoBra(too) -- "the idiocy of pricing reality on paper options"
justamereBear -- "destruction of confidence from a trigger event"
Journeyman -- "The Truth"
canamami (04/02/01; 17:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51295)
WINNER (German 20 mark coin)
I don't have the time to write a long piece like I did in the last Fifth Horseman contest. However, a shorter piece will suffice in any event because my candidate is simple and straightforward - the Fifth Horseman will be BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS and all that that entails.
It seems to be gold does well in periods of DISEQUILIBRIUM; gold thrives when bad men and negative economic events are in the ascendancy. If savings, investment, consumption, and currency and real wealth creation were always in perfect harmony - and if all debtors and would-be debtors always creditworthy - arguably there would be no need for gold. However, such a state of affairs does not exist. Hence, the need for gold in the function it serves.
One specific instance of DISEQUILIBRIUM is BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS, or the aging of the baby boom. The boomer must defer consumption, and try to save and invest for retirement. The relative numbers of the boomer generation itself constitutes disequilibrium; in other words, the generations are out of whack demographically. Also, over and above their disproportionate numbers, the boomers "earn" a disproportionate amount of the nation's wealth. Hence, the quantum of savings or - more properly - attempted savings is not conducive to harmonious economic activity. For a while, the market was a great way not only to "save"(or so everyone thought), but to grow effortless wealth. However, this growth in share price valuations was a function of asset inflation. Too much boomer money, as well as borrowed money from boomers and other age groups, was chasing too few stocks. The apparent rise in valuations sucked more and more currency into the equity markets. The trouble was, this couldn't go on forever. Unlike some on this Forum, I don't view equities as a great Satan; at root, they're just a means of owning a business. The trouble is, at some point the share price valuations have to accord in some meaningful way with a company's earnings or, for the more aggressive investors or speculators, with the potential, future earnings. This is why the tech sector exploded; it was possible for some to delude themselves into believing that earnings could catch up with valuations, whereas such delusions were not possible with mature companies possessing more predictable earnings profiles.
I will segue in to the analogy of the sponge. When there is too much currency or liquidity, it needs to get soaked up by a sponge.
Traditionally, gold served as the sponge, sucking up the excess currency and liquidity. With the dawn of technology, it became easier to purchase equities and equity mutual funds. Hence, there was indeed a paradigm shift which made equities easier to own, and which would legitimately increase their relative role in individual's economic lives. However, the influx of money into relatively few equities (exacerbated by the popularity of index funds) resulted in perverse economic signals being sent. The rapid rise in equities' valuations sucked more liquidity into the equities "sponge". And why not, you couldn't lose? Of course, the equities sponge has limited absorption capacity, because of the need to keep some rational semblance between the valuations, and earnings and/or earnings potential. Essentially, the equities markets have hit their absorption capacity. In fact, they are now discharging water.
Where does the water, or liquidity, discharged by the equities sponge go? It goes into Treasuries, money market funds and savings/chequing accounts. the trouble is, this sponge also has a limited capacity to absorb liquidity. For this sort of savings/investment vehicle to work, there must exist creditworthy debtors and potential debtors. At some point, there exists too much money to loan, and not enough creditworthy borrowers. One either must risk lending to those who are higher risks, or face a very low or no rate of return. In fact, one could face a liquidity trap, where there exists negative rates of real interest. In fact, in Canada, when interest rates went down too low, bank service charges went up. Such service charges must be considered in assessing the real rate of return.
At some point, the bonds/money market funds/savings accounts,etc., will have to discharge some liquidity, due to their limited absorption capacity. First, as stated above, there will be negative rates of real return. Second, there will be credit risk and default risk. Even in a bank, the government insurance is limited to a certain amount, and it can take years to collect.
Once equities and debt instruments reach their absorption capacity, the next sponge will be gold. Gold has yet to serve this function for the boomers for various reasons. First, the boomers were generally not raised to equate gold with money in any serious way. (This is especially true of late boomers such as myself, and those born subsequent to the boomers). Second, equities were doing so well, few thought of gold. Third, central bank and bullion bank activities released many new gold sponges onto the market, such that the individual sponges did not grow larger as they absorbed more liquidity.
However, the situation is changing. Not only are equities not viewed as a good investment, but losses mean they have lost their cachet as a form of savings. Also, debt-based instruments will eventually lose their cachet because of negative rates of return and credit/default risk. That leaves gold. The POG is beaten down so far, it should increase as money finally starts chasing gold again. The rise in the POG will generate interest some buzz, and more buying interest. Also, physical gold has no $20,000 or $60,000 (in Canada it's $60,000) insurance ceiling on safety deposits; physical gold solves the credit/default risk problem. Gold does not need to justify its valuation on a P/E basis, as equities must eventually do. Finally, as more people own gold, the government will be less inclined to artificially suppress the POG because such actions will impoverish the politically powerful boomers. Also, suppressing the POG would create a negative wealth effect as we're now experiencing with the equities markets.
In short, I submit BOOMER DEMOGRAPHICS will be the Fifth Horseman.
R Powell (4/1/2001; 11:18:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 51182)
*******The New Fifth Horseman*********
Our new horseman will be a loss of confidence. Specifically, a loss of confidence in paper monetary holdings. The Nasdaq technology bubble has burst resulting in investment shifts into the "old" economy Dow market. When the as yet unburst corporate and individual debt bubble begins to fail, as it can only be sustained in an irrationally exuberant economic expansion, then the Dow also will start to lose value. The last refuge for paper investment is the Bond market.
If the economy is to survive, the dollar will be sacrificed, as the economic cure of massive paper liquidity and lower Fed fund rates is poison to the strong dollar. With the dollar's demise, the last of the paper assets (bonds) fails to hold value and the rush (panic) into tangible assets will begin. Undoubtedly, some young investment manager somewhere will announce that he/she has "discovered" a new and safe investment opportunity for these uncertain times - gold!
From Jake Bernstein's "Beat
the Millennium Crash",
"However, as long as you keep in mind the fact that metals are responsive to extremes in emotion, and extremes in emotion are a function of market conditions, you will do well. When emotions and markets appear to be out of control, and traders and investors are in a frenzy, precious metals become the preferred investments."
Jake's words are simple and
straightforward. While not speculating on the complex, almost
economic subtleties of our global financial world, Jake relies on human psychology. The
of fear, confusion, anxiety, or bewilderment that will infect
the unsuspecting investment world, will result in a loss of confidence
and precipitate a demand for a tangible store of value, one that
is impervious to any and all financial upheavels. One that will
even provide handsome profits in times of distress. Our candidate
for such a job - Gold.
Econoclast (03/30/01; 09:46:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51070)
********The new fifth horseman**********
is the same as the old horsemen.
The new fifth horseman is that ancient and most traveled lurker who has been everywhere, all the time. He is the nameless one who rides in the shadows waiting to proclaim his inevitability among the fiat dollar and derivative based banking and financial structure. Our fiat dollar has been ridden into the dust and has reached the end of its timeline. The multitudes of these new financial instruments known as derivatives, along their markets, have spread like a plague to an astounding level of over $100 trillion, completely dwarfing the "real goods and services" economy. The inflation of the money supply necessary to accommodate this looters den of pyramiding contracts will soon come to bear on the already struggling American producer and consumer. Even now, the lambs can feel his presence on the edges of the system. But when the scales have finally tipped to the point of releasing his destruction, it will be fast and furious as the tumbling of a house of cards. Up from the tatters of this dollar and derivatives based meltdown will be seen the shine of that time-proven financial savior; gold.
CoBra(too) (3/31/2001; 16:07:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51142)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****
Not daring to re-visit Baring's, as the fragrance was reminiscent to Orange County Blossoms, a bountyful bloom smelling of gloom and doom; Though it was long term managed by the capital of would-be tycoon(s) to the holes in the equation of Black-Sholes, a new nobility of supra dark spots in space, and in place of hedging - counterparty risk leveraging becomes some kind of internal masturbating - since there is no one out there to insure the blasphemy of obscure financial manure.
A 100 Trilllion Paper Dollars in financial derivatives - setting the price (not value!) of any currency, commodity and virtuality all else in paper ir-reality - is many times more than the global GDP can procure.
Though, the bank-sters were
in-(as)sured and gangsters were allured to the hedge fund community,
as a means to continuity of leveraging even the consumer - as
the FED incited vicious reflation - and the boomer's wealth effect
and retirement fund is derelict - retaliation is going to be epic.
As some have helped themselves to riches, no glitches, as the markets were rigged for the main players - the layers of treason will have their season - and in the meantime, I suspect - physical gold will be the only reality left, weathering the storm of the 5th. Horseman - and ... bereft of counterparty theft, availability of reality to pay the due is for the few, getting the cue, deserting the cartel or cabal of suppressing the measure of real money - con eh?!
... We'll see ... The idiocy of pricing reality on paper options ... is a perfidy!
justamereBear (3/31/2001; 18:07:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51151)
*****the 5th horseman******
The oracles were seated, lotus fashion, in a circle, contemplating the 4 horrible horsemen seated by their nearby campfire, when suddenly one oracle straightened and observed, "A fifth horseman has just ridden over the hill. Neophyte, fetch me a telescope, that we may identify him."
As he placed the glass to his eye, his look of consternation went to puzzlement and then to comprehension. "His face is as smoke, and continually changes. Ah, yes, an image is forming. It is our old enemy, inflation."
He passed the telescope to the oracle seated next to him. His visage, in turn, went from consternation to puzzlement to comprehension. "Indeed his face is as smoke.. But wait, his face changes to technology. Technological change that mankinds' social structure is not now prepared to deal with. We will have social break down".
As the glass passed from hand to hand, each saw a smoky countenance that resolved into a new face. Overpopulation. Hyperinflation. Deflation. Corrupt politicians. Massive debt. Leverage and derivative products. Energy crisis. Fiat currencies. Declining potable water. Manipulation of markets and opinions. Terrorism. Speculation. Euphoric expectations. Disease. Greed, masquerading as thrift. A lulled, disinterested and self interested populace. Treachery, masquerading as judicious self interest. Violence as self defense. Pollution. Natural climatic and ecological change. Vengeance. Conspiracy. Declining sources of food. Bureaucratic over regulation.
They approached the ancient swami and cried, "What can this mean?" "How can we identify him when he wears so many faces?", as each in turn related what he saw.
The ancient nodded sagely and said;
"Yes, he is the most dangerous of all, for he includes all of the ills of mankind, from the smallest to the largest, including the four now camped, Asian contagion, spreading its' fiat fed disease worldwide, Stock market meltdown, destroying perceived wealth worldwide, Rising oil, with an effective end to this large but finite source of energy foreseeable, and no practical replacement available, Euro introduction, which is a destabilizing event, and even the departed Y2K. His power will become apparent by the slightness of his action, and the massiveness of its' results. They will camp the summer, growing fatter, and in the fall, when the hope of spring and summer, common to mankind, turns into the dark days and long nights of fall and the depressive mood that follows, they will act. Sit, while we contemplate 2 conditions."
"If I drop a pebble into this container of water, watch how the ripples spread in all directions, till they reach the edge, and then turn to return, collide, and then go on to the other edge. It is a long time till the water becomes still again. Observe, if I drop a second pebble into the container, its' ripples also spread as before. As each new ripple encounters a ripple from the previous pebble, it will momentarily either increase or decrease the amplitude of the ripple from the first pebble. As I drop in more pebbles, some convergence of ripples will multiply the amplitude of the ripple that exists for a moment as a result of many ripples being in the same place at the same time, to many, many times that of any individual ripple. A tsunami wave."
"Consider if you will, a new machine. As the machine is used, it wears. Over time, all the parts of the machine wear, albeit at slightly different rates. As the parts wear, they become less and less efficient at interacting with the other parts in the system. Finally, one part, which may or may not be the weakest in the system, breaks due to the 'slop' or counteracting forces in the system, as it now exists. The entire machine comes to a halt. Mankind has a need to blame a single cause for the machines breakdown, and they will blame this bearing or that rod. However as they replace or repair that bearing or rod, the 'slop' in the system soon causes another part to break. The truth is that the entire machine is old and worn, and its parts are not capable of working together efficiently. In more complex machines there are more parts to go wrong."
"Observe, when this horseman acts, it will only be to drop one small pebble into the container, which, when combined with all the other forces will produce a tsunami wave of a result. He might be called a trigger event, but more realistically he is destruction of confidence. Confidence, when destroyed by some innocuous event, a single straw that breaks the camels back, leads to fear, and thence to irrational and hopeless behavior. Fear spreads almost instantaneously. Much of the machine, particularly our financial system will shiver and stop. Mankind is on the cusp of great change. How well he will react bodes ill. In 1929, the turning point was one man's suicide. Gold seems one likely safe haven."
Journeyman (04/02/01; 13:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51260)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
It was just sun-up when the familiar-looking stranger rode into camp. He rode in slowly from the east, and to those grizzled veterans wondering who dared their camp at such an un-godly hour, it seemed to them he outshown the firey orb rising behind him. Was that shining armor he was wearing? Or was it something else?
He rode easily in the saddle, apparently untroubled by the mixture of morning fog and dense black smoke swirling madly about him. It almost seemed that unnatural and unholy mixture was trying to obscure the stranger's inner brightness.
"He looks familiar - - - but there have been so many applying these last few days . . .
"Lucifer! Light Bringer!" said Rising Oil in awe!
Euro turned his back and hissed into the dawn.
"Why are you here?" rumbled Market Meltdown, in open hostility and repressed fear.
"The reason I always come. I bring knowledge and enlightenment. It is my fate."
"The Greeks called you Prometheus . . .
"They call me many things. But whatever they name me, they either fear me or respect me. They ignore me at their peril."
. . . but the Christians call you 'Devil.'"
"Where my light shines, transformation and change follow. It isn't always pretty. That's why _you_ know me," he said, glancing meaningfully around the circle. "Those who fear change fear me. The established churchs, those Whores of Babylon, are no exception. But their True Holy One told them to know my lance: 'Know The Truth and The Truth shall set you free,' he taught them."
"Fat lot of good it's doing. POO there tripled his efforts from $10 per barrel barely a year ago," rumbled MM. "We've even gotten War back into the game and he's been ranging far and wide. You know of his exploits of late: Iraq, Algeria, Rowanda, Kosovo, Serbia, Chechnya. Even now he stalks Macedonia and prepares for sport in Taiwan, Palestine, and other places known only to a few. The Contagion, fresh from victories in South America and via a flight from Tokyo, is once again hectoring Asia. Even weak old Famine, this time in partnership with old and retired Plague, are stealing into Europe with foot-in-mouth . . . "
"Yea. Thanks a lot," said Euro derisively. "Get it straight will you guys. You're not supposed to be attacking me -- the problem is Strong Dollar. I'm one of the good guys."
Light-Bringer gave Euro a side-long glance. "You just _think_ you're one of the good guys," he said. "Underneath, you're empty and hollow, just like the rest of your clan. I suppose you may have your uses for now, but you'll die young along with all your kin."
Euro gave Lucifer a defiant look, but everyone in the company, including Euro himself, could now see The Truth in what Lucifer had said. They all avoided the eye of their doomed and temporary companion.
"There's Sir Reginald's Law Suit and GATA. There's even this up- start Energy something-or-other free-lancing his dark and entropic cape over the American country-side," Contagion continued the defeatist theme, "Market Meltdown has been ridiculously successful. The DOW dipped into bear market range, the S&P the same. NASDAQ has lost more than 60% of it's imagined value and just finished it's worst quarter in history - - - and _still_ gold languishes below it's production costs."
"The Truth doesn't come to large numbers suddenly; it only seems that way in the end. It comes slowly, one person at a time, like the sun in the morning gradually, almost imperceptibly, stealing silently into your bed-chamber, finally caressing your eye-lids and awaking you from your dark and frightening dreams. When enough waken, only then is the change upon us."
"True enough, but it seems that _nothing_ is happening," complained POO.
"Truely it does seem this way. They've been using their new weapon, Derivative, to suppress the early warnings that normally arrive as rising prices, but make no mistake the waves are building and the results will be the worse because of it. Forced by Derivative to behave as tsunamis - - - which unlike normal waves don't gain height or power till they near the shore - - - they are coming together from all points of the compass. You yourself have identified many of them -- the Energy dude with the dark cape just crashed ashore. He's just getting started. And there are many more like him right on his heels. Silver may crash down on Comex before the blackouts of summer place their indelible marks in the tome of 2001. Perhaps Copper will drench the markets like the rains of April.
"Inflation walks openly among us, flaunting his excesses. Bus rides in Pittsburgh just jumped 17%, baseball tickets 13%, and of course, the 40% electric-rate increases in California and doubling of natural gas prices. But the feckless Bureau of Labor Statistics, Keystone cops that they are, recite incantations, chanting that inflation is just the ghost of a clown, while all the while the FED performs endless acts of repo legerdemain, putting more and more "Strong" dollars into circulation.
"But The Truth is penetrating into the deeper levels. There are a reported 30 million Americans now enlightened with enough truth to stop participating in the unlawful IRS income tax scam. You don't hear this often, but even IRS commissioners and presidents sometimes let the figures slip. This wave is beginning to be visible just off shore: See next weekend's USA TODAY. You'll see The Truth in action, a full-page add challenging the lie of the Sixteenth Amendment and the Federal Reserve Act. How good will the "Full Faith and Credit" be when _this_ wave hits the beach? What will the foreign mercenaries holding Big Float do?
These and many more Small Truths slash and burn, but it is The Ultimate Truth, The Truth that gold is still by far the best choice, not only for storage of wealth, but also for transactional use, just as history has proven time and time again, that will truly free the price of gold from it's Strong- Dollar shackles.
"In other currencies however, The Ultimate Truth has already established a solid beach-head. Ask the Indonesians, the Koreans, the Brazilians, the Turks - - - even the Australians - - - about the price of gold.
"Most importantly however, I have a fifth column with tendrils that reach around the world and into half of all American homes. The potential of this Fifth Column is little understood as of yet. It's potential to deliver The Ultimate Truth is yet masked. E-gold in many forms has begun to be deployed through this Fifth Column, which will lead, as night follows day, to international pricing directly in gold units.
"The early users will, for simplicity, get in the habit of speaking clearly. They will talk not of selling gold for dollars or yen or marks or euro, but of buying dollars, yen, marks and euro with gold. They will begin, as of old, to write gold clauses into their contracts. Gold will thus begin to reclaim it's True position as the Ultimate Denominator of Transactions, not thru potentially questionable intermediaries like "dollars", but directly as grams and ounces of gold.
"At first transactional E-gold will only be used by a trickle, an elite few. But as Dollar, Euro, Lira, Sucre and their ilk - - - ah, sorry Euro - - - reveal their true and hollow colors, more and more people will catch on. The demand for transactional gold will grow from a trickle to a stream, the stream to a river, the river to a flood, the flood to a torrent, once again washing away the fiat detritus from the banks of history. Some economic historians will undoubtedly refer to this episode as the Great Money Laundering.
"Pie-in-the-sky", sneered Euro
"You're hoping", responded Lucifer. "Because that would spell the end of the brief domination by you and your clan." And looking at Contagion, and Meltdown, "And you fellows would be forced into early retirement too. It will also lessen War's work-load. But right now, you have your uses whether we like it or not." And as an after-thought, "Nothing for you to worry about, Oily One. To be as good as gold is all you wanted in the first place."
"That's true," said Rising Oil. And then hesitantly, "But I agree with Euro, pie-in-the-sky."
"Don't be so sure. One of my tacticians has done the calculations. You can find a "quick & dirty" thumb-nail of them at the link in the header. At the present rate of expansion, by the year 2003 the volume of E-GOLD transactions will be the equivalent of a small country the size of Canada. That's the stream if not the river - - - and in _just_ two years. And E- GOLD is only one of the Fully Enlightened. Just for example, recently Sir James "The Golden" Turk has ventured into the e-gold business as well. You can see for yourself at [his website.]
"A few from the dark-side have already begun to feel the cold sweat of fear trickle down their craven spines: For the first time just two days ago they raided "Gold-Age," an outpost of E- GOLD, but doing only transient harm.
"As the Economic Sage Mises laid down many ages ago in the Sacred Book of Action, while there is no perfect medium of exchange, there has yet to be a better one than gold. The fiat economic circumstances of today - - - and the explosive growth of e-gold - - - are the ultimate proof that Sir Ludwig saw truly and for all time.
"Thus by the will and DEMAND of the people, enlightened by The Truth, will the price of gold be set free to seek it's true level, which will include it's rediscovered use as a transactional medium. As a result of the spread of The Ultimate Truth, it's ultimate value will surprise and amaze it's advocates and humble it's enemies. Just as the "new economy" wasn't new and the phrase passed quickly into the disuse of embarrassment, so too the "new fiat experiment" will come to a bad and ignominious end. Not with a bang, but with a whimper. And soon." [*1]
An Historical note:
And thusly at the hand of the Fifth Column, the Fifth Horseman, and the tip of the mighty lance Truth, and with the aid of those four assembled at dawn and other temporary allies, it did indeed come to pass just as Lucifer Light-Bringer said that it would. And it came to pass with much less misery and upheaval than most thought possible - - -
*1. A note to my friends and allies at USAGOLD: Don't get left in the backwaters - - - become an e-gold portal!!
and Ticker Tape (03/29/01; 13:05:26MT
- usagold.com msg#: 51010)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****
WESTERN DESPERATION will be the new fifth horseman. It alone will spur demand for gold and only upon surviving to the eye of the impending economic hurricane. The storm will arrive too fast and prove to be far more damaging than they had ever imagined. All previous warnings to the contrary will have been ignored. Only after the trees are pushed to the ground and the house is flooded will their flight to gold occur. This stampede to gold, taken with what value they have left, will be in anticipation of the inevitable backside of the hurricane finding them. Only gold will survive the further destruction of their financial house by wind and wave. Gold, that barbarous relic, will again prove to be the ultimate holdfast.
Tree in the
Forest (03/29/01; 14:35:03MT
- usagold.com msg#: 51014)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****
SILVER will be the fifth horseman. While gold remains tightly controlled and rises slowly, silver, once it breaks loose, has shown historically its ability to make vicious spikes upward. The above link gives my evidence and illustrates my point with a chart. From that link:
"Sometimes markets have to come just to the edge of feigning disaster, or extend a period of dormancy so long as to wring every last bit of bullishness out of a market. Such is the case of silver market pictured above. Anyone even still looking at a silver chart after all these months of sideways to downward chop must either be overtly stubborn or stupid.
And yet, on an Elliott Wave basis, if one looks back at the late 1997 rally, we see a clear impulsive move followed by what could be a huge A-B-C period of retracement. Was this a I-II Elliott Wave pattern, soon to evolve into a much deferred wave III up? Although one more short term spike lower in the market is possible, longer term, we think it is."
Once silver makes it's move, TPTB will have no choice but to let gold run too.
onlychild (3/29/2001; 15:37:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51021)
*****The New Fifth Horseman*****
As Y2K disappears beyond the horizon, and night falls all around, it becomes quite evident who this new Horseman is. He slinks in from the dark, (a product of his own design), and visits his wrath upon us. First he is here, then he is there, travelling over the landscape in waves until all have felt his presence. He is the Horseman of Inadequate Generating Capacity. But you might know him better by his alias: Rolling Blackout. Just as his predecessor, Y2K, he strikes terror into the hearts of the citizenry by threatening their mode of existence. An USA without adequate electricity will turn barbaric, as the people huddle in their dark homes hiding from the bands of hoodlums that roam in the night. Unafraid of inoperative motion detectors and security alarms, they will kick down doors and pillage to their heart's delight.
During the days that their employers have electricity, the fortunate will go in to earn a few dollars before the power goes off again. On the off days they will sit idle beneath a shade tree wishing they could run their A/C.
Those in the Midwest who laughed at California will find that it's not so funny when their local power companies shut them down."Why?" they scream." We have plenty of coal, and plenty of power plants." But why would Missouri Public service continue to sell power for 6 cents a KWhr to Missourians when they can get 24 cents per KWhr in California. The energy will be sold to the highest bidder. What are you bidding with? Fiat? Better bring a wheelbarrow load.
The Horseman throws back his head and lets loose a thunderous laugh as he unveils his black cape and spreads it across the land.
beesting (03/29/01; 16:44:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51024)
**********The New Fifth Horseman**********
I would like to enter, "GREED" as the fifth horseman riding his faithful stallion manipulation, based on my post # 51002 03/29/01 11:49MT, although "GREED" was so eager to enter the race he burst through the starting gate a full "4" minutes before the race officially started @ 11:53MT.
If "GREED" was/is disqualified for his eagerness I can repost with slight modifications post # 51002.
beesting (03/29/01; 11:49:20MT
- usagold.com msg#: 51002)
Some Reasons & Results for Manipulations-Big-Time!
As everyone here is aware the U.S. dollar seems to be gaining in value to infinity, compared to most other currencies.(long term holders of Gold in other currencies are getting slowly richer, believe it!)
Now, since the U.S. has been for a long time importing more goods than it's exporting(dollar amounts) the strong dollar is a benifit to those who use it to import.(Americans?)
But lets think about this, what about exports? Wouldn't a strong dollar make U.S. exports too expensive worldwide for any country to buy them? Answer, Yes!
This is the where and why the "Manipulation" is centered and is currently working worldwide.
All major commodities are traded worldwide in "Paper" markets. I submit NONE of these commodities show a true supply and demand market price. The prices are "Totally" out of whack with reality (As we all can plainly see in the POG) as in almost all cases the producers in the U.S. are operating at or near losses, or in some cases getting Government assistance,(farming) to keep U.S. dollar prices artifically low on their products, for export purposes. So, except in the case of a semi-monopoly (Hi tech & entertainment [exports from U.S.]) all exports of U.S. raw materials are totally manipulated by the pricing mechanisms, (read futures markets) (Gold, farm products, lumber, etc.) with the blessings and help of the U.S. Government.
It is my opinion so much meaningful
production has stopped,because of this manipulation, or is on
standby mode in the U.S.,because of future high energy costs and
"Paper" value manipulation (mining, farming, manufacturing,
etc.) in the U.S. that this will eventually be the catalist that
destroys the "Real" value of the dollar. When? I don't
know,but,at this point Gold should soar,worldwide in every currency.
The manipulation is getting so blatant that when share prices
go down,,,,Gold,Silver, & other tangibles go down in dollar
price????? Gimmie a break! Pure manipulation right in front of
us for anyone to see!!
So my friends what it boils down to is, the real culprit behind the worlds financial problems is that other "G" word "GREED"!
Thanks for Reading....I'm still Buying Gold....beesting.
slingshot (03/29/01; 17:10:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51026)
******The New Fifth Horseman ******
The New Fifth Horseman will be "Cyber Terrorism". Technology
is advancing at blinding speed in the computer world. He who has the fastest computer has the edge. Those who don't may decide to slow down the faster one with a virus. To destroy the financial transactions between the BANKS of the WORLD would indeed produce a demand for GOLD.Timeing is everything. Even to slow the transaction could have an effect on contracts between Banks. The flow of FIAT around the world must keep in time with the sun. Never to see a sunset! This Horseman is the most dangerous. He comes from nowhere, Unanounced! His grasp can reach the four corners of the globe. Imagine a virus that is self aware, being able to change when detected. If you can vision it. It can be done. Only Technology holds you back. Just a matter of time. The demand for Gold would rise with no ATM's or Bank Holidays occur because they can not retrieve financial data. If they can do it to banks,Who Else?
megatron (03/29/01; 17:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 51027)
*****The New Fifth Horseman*****
The fifth horseman will be FEAR.
Fear is located deep within the genes of every creature.
Once triggered, it consumes the concious and sub-concious behavior of the individual and can be extremely contagious.
Mass fear is the sword hanging over the heads of all government controllers, and it is this fear that will drive them to commit the acts of self-preservation/irrationality that will occur when the financial juggernaut starts to collapse. Herds cannot be convinced of the irrationality of thier behavior, as it overrides the rational, driving them away from the object/s they fear, or blindly onward toward self-imolation.
JMB (03/29/01; 19:23:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 51030)
Daddy, Daddy, what's happening?
It's *****THE NEW FIFTH HORSEMAN*****my child. It's called PESTILENCE.
But Daddy, my Sunday School teacher has read to us from the Bible about pestilence and those people are not insects. Look! There's more of them, and they're all going into Mr. Ace's Coin Shop.
Yes my dear, I know they're people, but in The Brotherhood of Banking we refer to Gold Bugs as Pestilence.
GOLD BUGS! What's THAT?
Sweetheart, Gold Bugs are the bain of banking. They would destroy the foundation of our society and like moths they would eat away at the very fabric of our economy.
THEY'RE BANK ROBBERS DADDY!
No my dear, worse than that, much worse. They would destroy our credit system by elminating fractional reserve banking. They would demand that our money is backed by gold.
But Daddy, why are they in such a hurry to get into Mr. Ace's coin shop?
Well sweetheart, it seems that some of our loans are going bad. We're trying to get them bundled and sold to Uncle Al as quickly as possible and then Uncle Al can give us some fresh credit. If this pestilence spreads there's no telling where it will lead. Our entire Federal Reserve System is at risk....not to mention your plastic card.
You're right Daddy, those Gold Bugs are PESTILENCE!
The Hoople (03/29/01; 22:07:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51037)
**** The New Fifth Horseman ****
A THOUSAND PAPER CUTS. Pun intended too. As a fiat system spirals out of control, a paper currency will eventually seize up and becomes dysfunctional. One day the dollar will be parity to the ruble. As Daumier said, "nothing will escape the bear market, remember I told you so Mr. Coqardeau".
ausome (03/30/01; 07:01:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51056)
Fifth Horseman: European Superstate backed by Russian energy supplies
Three German visionary statements.
1."Creating a single European state bound by one European constitution is the decisive task of our time". Joschka Fischer 25-11-98
2. "A united Europe remains a vision to which we are all committed." Gerhard Schroder 26-11-98
3. " We want to see the European Union develop into a political union." Oskar Lafontaine 17-1-99
Schroder addressing Professor Hans Tietmeyer, on his retirement as President of the Bundesbank September 1999
"You were always conscious that the European monetary union would have to be based on closer political integration within Europe... It was an original political act to hand sovereignty over one of the most important areas of national authority, namely monetary policy, to a European authority. For this reason alone monetary union requires of us Europeans decisive advances in the field of political integration.
In February 2000 the European Commission issued a document Shaping the New Europe; Strategic Objectives 2000-2005. It stated;
Over the next decade we will complete our economic integration by... establishing an area of freedom, security and justice and by developing common foreign, security and defence policies...
The emerging superstate is revealed in the following initiatives.
The rapid reaction force: A 60,000 strong European army.
The charter of fundamental rights: modelled on the American Constitution.
Europol: A police force to counter cross border crime.
Eurojust: A system similar to America where petty crimes are tried under state law and serious offences are dealt with under federal law.
This next piece in the jigsaw is big.
German interest in a strategic partnership with Russia
This next point is big.
Russia sees Germany as pivotal in gaining access to Europe.
To express the closeness of the leaders of Germany and Russia, Putin on a visit to Germany last year said jokingly "What more do you want us to say? That we are in love?"
To mark the 11th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the 10th anniversary of the bilateral cooperation treaty between the two countries special newspaper articles were written. Mr Putin wrote in a German newspaper, and Schroder an article for a Russian newspaper.
"German-Russian relations today exist on the basis of trust and partnership unimaginable just a few years ago. I say this mindful of the tragic chapter in our history that we do not want to suppress. Only when we remenber this dark moment csan the agreement of people for the joint future of Europe go forward" wrote Mr Schroder in Russia Today 10-11-00
Germany is forging a deal with Russia that if it succeeds will change the balance of power in Eastern Europe. A large chunk of Russia's huge 14 billion debt to Germany will be converted into equity stakes in Russian companies. Germany will be a major stakeholder in Russia industry.
Oil of course.
The EU is 75% dependent on imported OPEC supplies. But the EU would not pay dollars for it and have to rely on the ME for oil if it got more from Russia. To get more oil from Russia would require heavy investment in infrastructure for transporting oil and gas to Europe. The EU is volunteering to finance pipelines to be completed in 2020. With the pipeline project the European commission wants to double Russian exports. The parnership is simple.
Russia needs money and Europe needs energy independence.
What of weak Euro and strong US dollar.
Europans are exporting world wide while the US is finding it more dificult to be competetive on world markets.
Where is this going?
Eventually US dollar will lose it's status as reserve fiat.
A sronger Euro will only build the case for stronger gold but not until the US dollar tops out. The Euro superstate has been getting the jigsaw pieces in place while America's energy problems have yet to be addressed.
FluorideCommie (03/30/01; 11:37:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51076)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
WAR: What set of Apocalyptic Horsemen is complete without it, or at the very least the threat of it? Maybe the Disney version?
As much as it disturbs me to think of it, I believe this will be the fifth horseman. The USA is continuing to infuriate a growing list of countries and people that have poor anger management skills. Of course, war does not have to directly involve the USA, it just has to be in the air at a time when everything else is going wrong. Maybe a renewed cold war, maybe an unseen terrorist group. Besides, there's nothing like a good war to get people's minds off the bad times and get the economy all fired up again. Is this why this Horseman tends to appear during economic downturns?
1) Russia (Remember them? They're the other country with more nuclear missiles than they know what to do with and they're being dismissed like helpless third world beggars. Don't underestimate Russian pride.)
Russia assails U.S. as tensions grow
GEOFFREY YORK, The Globe and Mail, Wednesday, March 28, 2001
MOSCOW -- Relations between the world's two nuclear superpowers were plummeting to new depths
yesterday as Moscow attacked the United States as an "immoral" supporter of terrorism.
The Kremlin was infuriated by Washington's decision to dispatch a high-ranking official to meet a senior
Chechen rebel envoy just two days after a wave of deadly car bombings for which Russia has blamed the guerrillas.
2) The Arab League and perhaps every other Muslim outside of Bosnia
Special to The Globe and Mail with reports from Agence France-Presse and Associated Press
Wednesday, March 28, 2001
JERUSALEM -- Two bomb attacks rocked Jerusalem yesterday, killing a suicide bomber and injuring
about three dozen Israelis, but Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said he would not be dragged into an escalation
of his country's confrontation with the Palestinians.
The bombings cranked up the pressure on Mr. Sharon to take decisive military action in the divided West
Bank city of Hebron, where an 11-year-old Palestinian boy was fatally shot yesterday and a 10-month-old
Israeli baby was killed by a sniper Monday.
Israelis and Palestinians had at least one eye on neighbouring Jordan, where leaders at a rare Arab League
summit appeared to be hammering out a challenging realignment of the Arab world.
King Abdullah set the tone by calling for sanctions against Saddam Hussein's Iraq to be lifted.
"The Iraqi people have suffered enough," the King said.
His speech was followed by a historic reconciliation between Syria, under new hard-line President Bashar
Assad, and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. It was the first official contact between Syria and the
Palestinians for eight years.
Relations between Mr. Arafat and Mr. Assad's late father, always tense, broke down completely when Mr.
Arafat signed an agreement recognizing Israel in 1993.
Since Mr. Assad assumed power last year, Syria has strengthened its opposition to peace with Israel.
Yesterday, he led calls to renew the Arab boycott of the Jewish state, describing Israel as "more racist than
Western analysts said the relationship emerging between Syria and the Palestinians, coupled with the
statement on Iraq, signals a new Arab radicalism.
In the West Bank and Gaza yesterday, Palestinian demonstrators carried pictures of Iraq's President Hussein through the streets, burning Israeli and U.S. flags and calling for the Arab leaders to support their six-month-long uprising against Israel.
EDWARD LUTTWAK, The Globe and Mail
Wednesday, March 28, 2001
"American leverage on China is enhanced by good relations with Russia, and vice versa. To quarrel with both countries at the same time reduces U.S. influence on both countries, while increasing their inclination to collaborate in ways that hurt American interests. The Chinese threat to Taiwan, for example, has been much increased by the recent acquisition of powerful Russian jet fighters and cruisers armed with missiles effective against U.S. aircraft carriers.
Sorry. For national security reasons I won't give any more away.
In all seriousness though, we do seem to have a lot of what the USA desperately needs. I don't think it'd be much of a war though. Remember 1812? We're undefeated!
Your guess is as good as mine.
So USAGOLD, you finally lured me out from the shadows. I should have posted long ago, if for no other reason than to thank you and the posters here for the wealth of knowledge you have all blessed me with. An exceptional forum indeed.
New Fifth Horseman - Addendum
How could I forget to mention two other forms of war: trade and currency wars. And after all the time Another and FOA have spent on the EU! Hence, the fifth item of my fifth Horseman post should read Europe.
5) Europe (This is just one of many examples.)
EU to 'Boycott' America Over Scrapped Enviro Treaty
NewsMax.com Wires, March 30, 2001
Margot Wallstrom, the EU's environment commissioner, said she was "extremely concerned and disappointed" and would fly to Washington next week to try to keep the US involved in the war against greenhouse gas emissions.
Ms Wallstrom hinted at trouble if the US refused to attend talks due in Bonn in July. She stopped short of threatening to impose EU trade sanctions, but insisted that the US withdrawal from the treaty would distort fair transatlantic competition.
"Why should we put European businesses under such high pressure and let American companies off the hook," she said. "Why should they play by other rules?
Orville Goldenbacher (03/30/01; 15:27:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51089)
********The Fifth Horseman*********
I believe our new Fifth Horseman will take up precisely where the Old One (y2k) left off.
This Fifth Horseman shall be a human being, he will be somone we all know, he will be an American. His horse shall be stabled in The District of Columbia, he shall fly the banner of Skull and Bones.
Famine and pestilence shall reign upon his country. Blight and ruin upon his country's financial markets. His people shall cry and beg for mercy, of which this Horseman knows not, there shall be no mercy. Discipline will be his decree.
As he rapes and pillages our environment, claiming it to be the only path to salvation, his sheeple shall follow, proclaiming their loyalty all the way. "All, Hail the Chief", they shall say as he leads us into battle.
Goldbites (03/30/01; 15:43:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51092)
******The New Fifth Horseman******
Thanks to this forum I am an "owner of gold" and have been a lurker for a long time. This "New Fifth Horseman" contest has piqued my interest enough to cause me to venture where perhaps I don't belong; posting for the first time with people of such erudition. But my experience with this forum leads me to believe tht most here are gentlemanly or ladylike and have patience with the new posters and encourage learning and involvement. So I'll venture forth with my first post.
I believe the New Fifth Horseman is related to the Y2K that galloped away, and in fact may be the same Horseman in different guise. It will take the form of a cataclysmic event initiated by a terrorist or terrorist organization, (or possibly a major military aggression) against the United States. The stability of the American economy (and the now deeply intertwined global economy) is to some extent dependent on the confidence of the everyday joe on the street, the people. As long as most or at least a large number of the populace believe that a system, be it financial, economic, political, or cultural, is sound and sturdy, she sheeple will continue to support it and support those who seeminly control it. Even if this belief is based on false or "cooked" information, the sheeple want to believe in stability and will turn their eye from the truth so they don't see it. I believe some sort of catastrophic event, not dissimilar from what we thought Y2K would be, will trigger a serious threat to U.S./global stability and the sheeple will seriously lose confidenc in the system and will not blindly follow their "leaders" and will behave independently and unpredictably. I believe some kind of terrorist act such as Ebola virus exposure(intentional spread of mad cow or hoof and mouth disease would be easier)or a nuclear explosion, will be the Fifth Horseman that will create the instability and when the sheeple see how frail the infrastructure is in it's inability to handle the crisis, the people will panic, creating exponential chaos. People will abondon current financial and wealth vehicles and will flock to gold and precious metals. Governments will also, and some already are, witness Russia's building gold reserve and their seeming indifference to the IMF. I think confidence in many world wide institutions is very thin right now, and people are willingly accepting the party line that all is ok, yet in the back of their minds they know it not to be true. It won't take much to crack the thin ice that confidence is riding on, and the stability will crash through the ice. So my vote for The New Fifth Horseman goes to some sort of terrorist act or military aggression that breaks the back of the sheeple's confidence.
White (03/30/01; 17:19:37MT - usagold.com
****** The New Fifth Horseman ********
---brings us to what this contest is all about. . . .
We must now once again name a Fifth to replace the One who has slinked away. Undoubtedly there are many candidates to fill this evil role. . . .
Remember: The Horsemen are not what drives Price but what will drive Demand for Gold in the future. . . .Gold, the Protector, the Vessel of our Wealth, the one addition to our portfolios that will be there should any of these Horseman gain the Day. . . . ..........So keep gold Demand in mind when you write your contest entry.
So that is the Contest to be weighed over the course of the next Five days. Who is this Fifth Horseman who can now be seen galloping into the Horsemen's camp over yonder hill -- this Fifth Threat?? And what is the nature of the treat he represents?
All Contest posts must be 30 words or more. . .
All Contest posts must be marked as follows:
****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** (Surrounded by stars)
Thanks for rereading the instructions ! <;-)>>
The remaining Four Horsemen as astonished as the new Fifth Horseman rides into the camp. "It" is (are) the Siamese twin "Unemployment Rising" and his sister "Debt-default Rising" !!! (These twins are joined at the "pocketbook.)
(Stop laughing ThaiGold.) Anyone can see that these two will have a major impact on the price of physical gold "Rising". At the start of the California electrical power crisis, a number of Aluminium Plants closed operations and layed off most all workers. Kaiser's Trendwood Plant near Spokane, WA, could make more profit by selling the power, than they could by producing aluminium!! LATELY, just look at what has happened in the resession resistant great Pacific Northwest in the last few weeks. Dot.com failure left and right, major layoffs within that industry. THEN, one of the big name employers in the area, The Boeing Co. moving its HQ out of Seattle and the Renton, WA production of the body of one of it's 7x7 planes to KS. Today, because of power rate increases, Georgia Pacific announces that it shall be closing major portions of its Pulp Mill and chemical production operations in Bellingham, WA -- a BIG impact on that city!! Pink Slips and Walking Papers are now terms that everyone can hear. Is this only a local problem? NAW!!! Watch out for the color PINK !
So, what does this mean? Well think about the new legislation of removing the credit card debt from coverage under the Bankruptcy Law. Guess whom was the power behind that effort? Do you think that the Bankers are thinking ahead ? Lookout for repo's on Home loans of the 125% type.
How much credit card debt do you have? Is your rate at 20+ % yet ?
SOOOO, I submit that ****** The New Fifth Horseman ***** is Unemployment Rising + Debt-default Rising, AND the only thing that can defeat them is, becoming DEBT FREE and collection of WEALTH insurance = Physical Gold !
Shermag (03/30/01; 18:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51103)
********The New Fifth Horseman**********
The new fifth horseman is among us now, as he has been for well over a year. He rides by stealth, disguised as opportunity. His name is Stock Market Bear, although few know him by this name, at least not yet.
His methods are opportunistic, preying on the avarice of the common man. His plans are rather simple as well: rob the fools of their wealth. He has carefully laid a groundwork over the past decade. This is his trap.
His modus operandi is rather simple. He rides with many accomplices, many unknowing of their role. The promoters, analysts, brokers, financial advisors, financial planners, researchers, and financial show hosts, they are all intricately woven into his plans. His groundwork involves the deception of the masses. Early on, he planted a few simple notions that grew to towering nostrums: stocks rise in the long run faster than all other investment opportunities; leverage is power; demographics will deliver you to wealth; any decline is always followed by a rise to new heights. Aided and abetted by a run-away fiat system, he draws in his victims. They are enticed by the unrelenting cacophony of the pushers, the Rukeysers of the world, and they are drawn in by their own greed. Once in, they are caught.
The trap works in a rather insidious way. Emboldened by past successes, the players are convinced of their stock picking prowess. So sure of their acumen to understand the market, the players hang in. Meeting margin calls, doubling up, averaging down, or just plain holding for the long term, the players are consumed, their wealth devoured by the Bear. Once caught few have a way out. The "OUT" door is too small for many to exit. He has designed the trap so that once the players realize their predicament, the trap closes. Capitulation is all that is left, but this comes only after a great degree of impoverishment. When his work is done, the reigning sentiment will be to never buy stocks again.
working-kirk (3/31/2001; 0:26:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51109)
********The New Fifth Horseman**********
I believe the fifth horseman will be hopelessness and unhappiness. With the wealth being wiped out due to the bear market, inflation and other outrages, there are going to be a lot of unhappy people.
I always wanted to be rich. Many people tell me: Being rich won't make you happy. They usually say this with a very smug expression. Having experienced extremely poverty I know by the off chance that if I am not going to be happy rich then poverty is ablosute misery. One of the saddest songs was sung by someone who discovered just how miserable being broke could be.
Brother Can You Spare A Dime?
This time they will be singing
Brother can you spare some gold?
There will be no happy days for you unless you use this brief moment to get some gold and silver now!
IronHead (3/31/2001; 1:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51112)
******* The New Fifth Horeseman *******
The "New Fifth Horeseman" is not understanding gold.
The misunderstanding of the purveyor of truth, ie. gold, rides on a cloud of deception, which will afflict paper lions and physical holders alike.
A death knell in paper worlds is being struck by the dark nimbus of fear and horror, as the former loves, Nas and Duck and Spoo become the beast personified, destroying the grace and glory that once was.
This creature has barely divulged its pangs of hunger, yet all who still entertain hopes of days gone past, shall feel the brunt of leviathan's teeth. Prior to their devour, the lambs will change course and pray to the old gods - commodity gods, residing in the paper House Of Comex - clan silver and gold.
With a paper price rocketing to the heights of Everest or the depths of Haides, all in a day, or a nano second; causing more loss and despair for the chasers of paper gods. Entities without faces or being, that inhabit ivory towers in the land of cabal and government, will move mountains of paper at lightning speed. Never to understand the meaning of real gold will be their lot in life. Until it is too late; for their brethren will flee the grossly depreciating paper and demand for real gold will eclipse most peoples ability to offer paper for gold.
Equally forlorn will be today's holder of real gold that does not understand the manipulation of this historical money, by powers beyond their comprehension. These are the weak hands that only understand "the price of gold" judged by what their toll and labor will buy - on an hour by hour basis. Today, a venture to the hovels of greed and avarice, always yields gold aplenty, left at the altar of the broker, by the son's and daughter's of those departed, whom lived in a time of other leviathans - economic juggernauts born of depression and war. Never to understand the reasons their fathers and mothers kept pieces of gold, will be their lot in life. Until future upheavals destroy their confidence in governments and man's devices, will they understand and possess a demand for gold.
But, to all who enter this temple of thought and peruse its voluminous caverns, in search of truth - it can be seen. From the likes of one and another, a safe route or path to enlightenment can be found, whilst the horseman commences.
It is the demon within; the "not understanding gold" by others, that will ultimately drive gold demand beyond the reach of all.
And then we die.
EagleOne (3/31/2001; 7:36:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51120)
********** The New Fifth Horseman **********
There they sat. The Four Horsemen. The camp fire was almost horizonal with sparks flying off in to the sage brush driven by a cutting wind. They sat slumped over, shoulder to shoulder up-wind.
They hardly looked up as the stranger walked into the firelight. They used to be surpremely confident. They used to think they could change the world.
To the stranger, they looked like they needed a pep talk.
Who's in charge here? The stranger demanded.
Silence. Asian Contagion coughs. Then coughs again and spits a big wad of yellow phelgm into the fire. "Who wants to know?"
The stranger is thinking: (This guy may never even make it to his next plunder if he doesn't kick it up a notch or two. Maybe some Rocky II music, some Vicks 44, and one of my little PM rants is in order here.)
The stranger takes his measure for awhile longer then answers: "I'm The New Fifth Horseman."
Another pause. "Where's your horse?"
"That would be Momentum. Big Mo, I called him," replied the tall stranger. "Actually I had to give him up to my broker for my last margin call. I'm riding this old Trail Bike now. Borrowed it from some guy over on the Gold Trail. He said I could use it forever if I could just get you guys going again. That's why I'm here. The name is RAS.
"What the hell kind of name is that?" one of the Horsemen asked.
It's short for Redeem All Shares. Same as REDEMPTION.
"Guys over on the Gold Trail said this bunch is falling apart and the bubbleonians have been kicking your butts. You've lost your fear mongering." RAS says.
SMMD looks up. "We're doin' OK." he says. "Naz is way down."
RAS: "Appears you could use a little help with the DOW. You are nowhere near CAPITULATION. DESPERATION and FEAR are not in sight, and I-NEVER-WANNA-BUY-STOCKS-AGAIN has never done a guest spot on CNBC."
RAS continues: "I've got ALL FOUR with me. They are here. Now. They follow me wherever I go. Margin calls too."
Then The Four Horsemen look up. Long, hard stares. More silence. The fire sizzles. A dog barks.
Finally, Rising Oil kinda rolls over on one cheek and passes a little gas. "Sorry boys, I just can't rip 'em like I used to."
Back on the subject, some one pipes up, "Maybe he could sell hot derivatives for awhile." Then, "What can you do about the US Dollar? Does that follow you around too?"
"No, my Brother RAS-SAN is taking care of that in Japan."
"You mean there's TWO of you," a Horseman declares.
"More than that." RAS replys with growing assurance. "I am Global now. REDEMPTION is ready to wipe out US equities, crush US Bonds held in Asia, smash US Dollars in Europe, and DESTROY the South American fiat currencys again. All in this same cycle.
"So, what's that do for POG?" Euro Intro says with a smirk.
RAS to himself: (Geez, do I have to draw these guys a picture?)
Then he says, "So what the hell have YOU guys done for the POG? Gold is DOWN since you got together. You run in to NY for a day or two and raise a little havoc, but these knot-heads haven't given up yet. You Know It. All you got now is a bunch of mf managers swapping shares with each other. Volume is still huge. Hell, it's higher now than back in April. And margin debt? It's higher now than in 1929. They are still loaded up waiting for the first big bear rally."
"You KNOW you need MF REDEMPTIONS. Across the board. All sectors. NAZDAQ. DOW. SP-500. Wilshire 5000. INDEX FUNDS. And yes, paper gold too. Especially paper gold. Short covering will drive demand for physical gold up 10 to one for your plunder. And you there, Asia Man. You know gold is the only safe haven your countrymen's wealth in lieu of those US Bonds they've been holding. Demand for gold you ask? It's everywhere that REDEMPTION strikes. No more automatic 401-k's into equities. No more mutual fund industry. No more margin debt outstanding. No more TV ticker tapes. We can take 'em ALL out. The five of us. And all will flee in fear to physical gold."
"Damn. You can do that?"
The Fifth Horseman: "This is a mania, is it not?"
Silence. The fire crackles. RAS stands over next to SSMD. "We'll be riding out in the morning. I want you all to be ready." No one looks up.
Camel (3/31/2001; 11:21:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51129)
********The New Fifth Horseman***************
Even in our highly advanced industrial society it seems that all still depends on the weather. If this turns out to be a another warm summer it will be another terrible body blow to the economy as we will see higher electricity costs giving the consumer less spending power while at the same time raising prices. Stagflation !! A mild summer and it might be manageable ,a very hot summer and it probably is not.
Of course we have all heard global warming pronounced dead on this forum a number of times.I personally don't think there is enough information to say definatively one way or the other . Last year there were record high temperatures all over Texas , 114 F or so in some places, but this coincided almost perfectly with the peak of the 11 years sunspot cycle,so there may be many variables at work simultaneously not just two or three. It maybe some of these natural cycles are amplified by "global warming" as was thought to have occurred with the big El Nino a couple of years ago. Sort of a resonance effect. Wasn't it Tesla who said that he could destroy the earth using resonance.
I suppose as far as the POG is concerned it wouldn't really matter too much if it is naturally occurring or humanly induced, the result would be about the same.About the only differance would be that we would be asked to use less fossil fuels ,particularly gasoline ,and that is probably what we should be doing anyway.The hybrid vehicle would cut U.S gasoline consumption in half. Lowering home utility costs seems to be more difficult. What is probably needed is some national directive to develop solar water heating and space heating. Sort of a "chicken in every pot."
US oil production peaked in 1971 and exploration peaked in 1952. Yes ,yes , I know .It was the onerous government regulations that caused this. Balohney!!! This country has run through its irreplaceable natural resources like there was no tomorrow! If anything there was collusion between big oil,big government and the automobile industry to keep building big cars. .
If there is blame to be placed for the current situation it seems to me it should go to Reagan- Bush because all of this current energy crisis was clearly visible back in the seventies and many energy consevation policies were in place by the time of the Carter administration .Under Reagan- Bush, a sort of dark ages set in ,at least for energy policy and it continued on in the Republican Congress during the Clinton Yeras.
Or maybe everyone is a little bit to blame.
In any case it seems that all now depends on the weather.
Solomon Weaver (3/31/2001; 17:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51148)
The 5th Horseman
Paper contract prices for olives are also beginning to diverge from historic norms.
When the power elite of the world can no longer get olives for their martinis, they will finally realize the nature of the gold market.
Poor old Solomon
Carl H (3/31/2001; 20:50:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51156)
********** The New Fifth Horseman **********
The Fifth Horseman is Arrogance.
The cabal is getting arrogant. The GATA lawsuit is in progress and look at what they did to the price of gold last week on the Comex!
In Silver, there were over 10,000 stoppers (over 50MOz worth) in March and the price of silver went down to $4.28 on the Comex. This also strikes me as arrogance.
Elwood (3/31/2001; 22:05:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 51160)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Crack-up Boom
"The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market. But it could not last forever even if inflation and credit expansion were to go on endlessly. It would then encounter the barriers which prevent the boundless expansion of circulation credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom and the breakdown of the whole monetary system."
L. von Mises
Nothing short of the crack-up boom will change the ingrained western view of money.
FredBear (4/1/2001; 0:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51164)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Federal Reserve Note (aka US Dollar) is the New Fifth Horseman.
The demand for gold will be driven by the coming, and necessary, devaluation of the US Dollar against GOLD.
Lord help us.
dragonfly (4/1/2001; 10:29:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51180)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****
There is ONE known of OLD whose HUNGER for GOLD is a matter of SURVIVAL. This ONE - called NIBIRU by the Sumerians - is the tenth planet of our solar system with an elliptical orbit of 3600 years. The ANNUNAKI who inhabit it require GOLD for ATMOSPHERIC SHIELDING and have been acquiring such here on Earth for at least 450,000 years. "Black Gold" has nothing on these GUYS and GALS who like to ACCUMULATE AU in prodigious quantities with the help of their genetically tweaked human helpmates. Their return is imminent (years) and I suspect that some among the "strong hands" understand well the benefit of storehousing AU in anticipation of their arrival. The secular apostates in central banking have obviously forgotten their history and may pay dearly for their leasing sins and any related dispersal of AU to the unwashed masses. Since the electromagnetic forces of NIBIRU passing between Earth and Mars are so great, recurring catastrophe has been our fate thus far, with the subsequent revival of the arts of civilization in the hands of our "gods and goddesses" of the tenth planet. The FIFTH HORSEMAN is PROPITIATION this time around. Those who can mobilize the resources necessary to get OFF PLANET with ALOT OF GOLD will be in a COSMIC SWEET SPOT when the global disasters occur. Talk about a technological expression of faith and worship - sitting out there in geosynchronous orbit with the radio transmitting the atomic number of AU in all directions. "Welcome to Heaven faithful Earthlings, what is that in your suitcases?" So, for the rest of us with "small footprints", the FIFTH HORSEMAN may be of benefit if we survive massive earth cataclysms and happen to have the good fortune to parlay our small holdings into a fiefdom of ANNUNAKI-directed reconstruction. They seem to have a pro-slavery proclivity though and many of us small holders may choose to bargain in a different fashion to keep the spirit of independence and integrity alive.
In the immortal words of Stan Lee --- "Nuff Said".
Submitted with a smile.
US_Army(RET) (4/1/2001; 14:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51190)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
Ok, am intrigued by the "New Fifth Horseman" entry idea...and am ready to send forth a "tentative" first entry to this thoughtful forum.
I certainly have no doubt about who or what the "fifth horseman" is. Nor do many of the "clear thinking" individuals around me. There is only one existing entity with the power, force, influence and will to drag us all into the final stage of Armageddon. Of course at this point, no amount of "wealth" of any kind, be it gold or otherwise, will serve as even the slightest comfort for most. But, enroute to the final stages of bringing about world destruction, will trigger many of the events repeatedly forecasted in this forum. Especially a dramatic and near term fantasic increase in demand of the ultimate form of wealth, esp. win a crisis...Gold.
There is no question this nomination will be adamantly rejected by many...but "the truth is out there..."
No other group or nation since the days of the Nazi has gotten away with the murder and mayhem this "horseman" has. Vast control over the media and politicians of the "West" has allowed it to escape with repeated acts of appalling inhumanity.
Its actions (crimes?) include:
1. Wholesale displacement of indigenous populations.
2. Creation and maintenance of the largest concentration and slave labor camps the world has ever seen.
3. Repeated acts of massacres and murder of significant numbers of men women and children.
4. Antagonizing prideful neighboring nations into one-sided slaughters and then claiming to be the victim.
5. Completely ignoring the lawful, moral and unanimous past U.N. resolutions.
6. Totally undermining the moral makeup of the worldís remaining superpower by near total control of its political system and media.
There is a natural law of "compensation"...and we all will reap the rewards of such actions for good or ill.
I submit this posting fully expecting to be labeled with the usual "anti-somethingorother" label...which is the normal tactic of all those supporting this horseman ...but no other "horseman" I have seen mentioned so far comes close to the significance and most likely near term probable cause of worldwide disaster both in financial and human terms. We are literally hanging on the edge of a major conflagration and we are being rushed over the abyss by this immoral and unthinking force. This malignant entity is... of course, the Zionist Government of Israel.
ROSEBUD99 (04/01/01; 20:26:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51203)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
I have been lurking for about a year and hardly ever miss a day reading the thoughts of all these great knights. I wish to thank MK for this wonderful site and humbly wish to submit my idea for the 5th horseman.
The 5th horseman has been with us all along. He has been responsible either directly or indirectly for bringing forth the other horseman. He is the general of the horseman, always having remained in the background except for small periods in the past. Now he has galloped to the forefront to take charge of the battle at this most critical time. Indeed, most think of him as a white knight instead of a rogue Horseman. Just look at his recent past actions.
He rescued Asia when the contagion Horseman threatened to engulf the world. He calmed the US when fears were heightening from the Y2K Horseman. He told us that energy was not as important in the "New Era" as the Oil Horseman rode from the east, tripling prices as he went. He has talked the Dollar up through his underling Dept. of Treasure as the Euro Horseman was born and tried to find its legs. He has made it clear that productivity is the driving force behind the economy and continues unabated to this day. He has also dropped interest rates in his support of the markets when The Stock Market Meltdown Horseman was slashing and pillaging the countryside.
He is the "FED". The most diabolical of the entire Horseman. Why?? Because all direct challenges have been soundly defeated. Only through his actions will the true nature of this beast be revealed. Much like the stock market bull was defeated not by an event, but just by the simple laws of math. Only in this way will the dark Horseman side of the FED be shown for all to see. Even now he works feverishly pumping money into the system and lowering rates. One day in the future people all over the world will decide that maybe they have to many dollars. That maybe the dollar is not worth what it says its worth. Then that change at the edge will start to grow, soon to become a flood of dollars being changed for......for....GOLD.
So it will not be an event that triggers this flood. For all "Events" end. It must be a change in perceptions, much like the drops of rain that are at the beginning of every flood. For each time the FED Horseman succeeds, he actually fails, bringing on the true nature of the beast.
Curious (04/01/01; 22:17:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51210)
***************THE NEW FIFTH HORSEMAN *************
The new fifth horseman is the 10th planet NIBIRU as explained by Jeramiah Stichin that is in orbit around our Sun and will come closer to the earth sometime between now and the year 2012. The gravitational attraction will cause the pole shift predicted by Edgar Cayce. This time also coincides with the end of the Mayan Calendar. The Hopi Indian prophesies also predict a major event is coming soon. Nostramadus also predicted a Terror from the sky. Other Seers predict massive changes in the earth during the next few years including a substantial increase in the width of the Mississippi River, the disappearance of much of California and other catastropic events as noted on the various earth changes maps.
There is speculation that the aliens even created the religions on Earth since there are amazing similiarities between all of the major religions. This was an effort to control the people so that they would mine the gold that they needed. Gold has been the standard of value for at least 6000 years and maybe longer. If the 10th planet comes by every 3600 years, the aliens could well have convinced the people of the value of gold during a previous visit 7200 years ago so that it would be mined and available when they came by again. Otherwise there is no good reason why anyone would want thousands of tons of gold so it could sit in the vault doing nothing except to serve as a theoritical backing for a paper money system.
When the 10th planet gets closer, the aliens will land to pick up the gold. The secret societies such as the Masons and others, the New World Order, and the Illuminati are either heavily influenced by the aliens or are descendants of the aliens. They want to be able to trade the huge quanities of gold for privileges and possible ascention to the 10 planet and an extended healthy life off of this planet Earth. People with no gold will have no bargaining position and will be left behind on a planet with severe distruction caused by the pole shift or they will be enslaved. The stock market will have crashed, the economy will have been destroyed and millions of people will be starving with inadequate food and water. Energy supplies will be restricted and the infastructure will collapse during if not before the pole shift.
There is a theory that Aliens created the human race here or that the human race is a hybrid of earlier life forms and alien genes. There is no real evidence of a progression from earlier forms to man that suddenly appeared. The Central Bankers know about this from the elite 12 families or the 300 families that control the majority of the wealth of the planet. They have sufficient wealth to cause the rises in the stock market, to sell at the top, and to cause severe declines in the market, so they can buy at the bottom and use these swings to add to their wealth. In this manner, they can accumulate more gold to trade to the aliens.
If all of the Black (hidden) gold does actually exist, these elite super rich people would want to control this gold too and they will try to suppress the knowledge of this gold so that the value of their existing gold does not collapse. With all of these horsemen and potential catastrophies, we will have our hands full trying to survive.
kosher (04/01/01; 23:26:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51214)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
It will be the demise of US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Let's see what happened in the first quarter of 2001. NASDAQ continued its collapse (-~30%), while the 'real economy' stocks came under pressure and e.g. DOW lost (-~10%). Yet, the almighty dollar gained ~3.5%. Insane but true. The dollar's gain was, almost exactly, Gold's loss (-3.4%). Gold will rule when the dollar is gone as a refuge in troubled times. Nothing will be able to save US dollar when the credit bubble burst.
Tannehill (04/02/01; 02:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51229)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
A lean, gaunt stranger with sunken eyes appeared suddenly at the campfire, he spit on your hand. I didn't come in the sunshine, because I wanted to slip up on you fellows without your knowing it. But your forefathers have known me. You have hear the "wise ones" predict this time it is different, well I tell you --- it is no different from any other greedy bubble ever produced by mankind, there will be no harmony. Even though you clamor for me, I am not available. I am Scaracity, the fifth horseman, and will not be available to you at any cost, this will echo in your ears. Verily, verily I say unto you, you have had your seven fat years leading to the apex, now there will be seven lean years. You dared believe that the old rule of scaricity and abundance did not apply to technology, that it would be buenaventura forever. hah! You have sown the virtual world of nothingness on your computers, and now you will be left to try and eat the unleaven virtual bread. You can not live in a virtual house, you are not warmed by a virtual fire. You have taken good and glorious things provided to you and produced only virtual products from it. You have encapsulated vast quantities of gold and silver in your electronic gadets, never to be recovered. Thus mortal men are doomed to toil underground to provide the greedy with the shiny metals of wealth. Those that have created this bubble have stood on the shoulder of giants. The knowledge was there, but did anyone ask should we do this? The world wants more and more physical things and you let you leaders give you those virtual derivatives, no longer I say, I demand physical and there is not enough to go around. Scarcity will become abundant, ha ha ha.....up is down, right is wrong, the world is topsy-turvey, there is a newmont rising, I read minds and play god, you will bow to Scaracity.
Black Blade (04/02/01; 03:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51231)
***** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Old Fifth Horseman "Y2K" has passed on without much visible damage. This may have been because of planning and a concerted effort to avoid a potential disaster. It is true that there were several "problems" attributed to the date sensitive SCADA chips, but nothing that could be perceived as apocalyptic in nature. Y2K was a foreseen event in the making with a definite identifiable deadline. We are not so lucky with the other "Horsemen" and certainly not with the "New Fifth Horseman."
ENERGY AND THE NEW ECONOMY
The "New Fifth Horseman" has already come to the forefront and has begun to effect the economy. The "New Fifth Horseman" is the "Energy Crisis." It would be easy to say that "Rising Oil" is the same, however, although the "Rising Oil Horseman" is closely related to the "Energy Crisis," The "Energy Crisis" encompasses many other components as well. We have heard from several so-called experts that energy is no longer important to the economy since we now have entered in the age of the "New Economy." Nothing could be further from the truth. The "New Economy" is one that relies heavily on the internet, computers, telecommunications, etc. The "New Economy" voraciously devours incredible amounts of energy. It is estimated that a new server farm is built every week. These energy farms consume as much energy as some small US cities. The "New Economy" that the so-called experts said was supposed to save energy is actually draining energy at a rate much faster than can be replaced. The biggest of these farms use a whopping 120 megawatts around the clock, equal to the energy use of 120,000 homes and enough to merit a new mid-sized plant to serve each facility.
Every postwar recession has been preceded by an "Energy Crisis." The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo resulted in high gasoline prices and rationing. Price controls were enacted and the problem only became more critical. The oil crisis of 1979 threw the US into recession once again. The current "Energy Crisis" has sparked the cry of recession in the financial media. An "Energy Crisis" is being recognized by some well informed students of the economy and a growing number of politicians and they well know that the result will likely be an inflationary recession that will surpass the "Energy Crises" of the past.
The Old and New economy debate can be misleading. The future economy is likely to blend traditional business (Old Economy) with new developments and inventions (New Economy). The question is where does petroleum fit into this future economy? It is only obvious to even the most causal observer that energy and petrochemical use will grow several fold because they are so embedded in our economic life and power the engine of economic growth. Light Sweet Crude Oil has rebounded from a low of about $10.00/bbl to recently over $38.00/bbl. The higher costs of petroleum have resulted in higher transportation costs, and earnings warnings by manufacturers.
It is likely that all the major oil basins or provinces have been found and the world is in effect, truly running out of oil. At least out of easily exploited cheap conventional oil. The peak year for oil discoveries in the US was in 1930, and the peak for worldwide oil discoveries was in 1962. Discovery rates have steadily fallen since. Most increases in oil production since then have come from technological advances that were applied to already discovered oil fields. 3-D Seismic and horizontal drilling techniques improved oil recovery in known fields, but have not resulted in any significant discoveries of major fields.
Energy is derived from many sources and not just oil. Energy drives the US economy and we are falling behind in exploration and production of cheap energy. In fact the days of cheap energy are gone forever. Due to the need for other sources of energy and environmental regulations there has been a shift toward clean burning natural gas. Here we are experiencing higher costs and short supply as well.
Due to environmental concerns there has been a shift toward Natural Gas fired power plants. Here we have a severe shortage as well. In the US. Natural gas prices have risen from $2.85 Mbtu earlier this year to a recent $5.40 Mbtu. Natural gas is used to generate about 25 percent of the nation's electricity but it is also in short supply, as a result of several years of mild winters, low demand, and flagging drilling activity. About 95% of all new power plants are natural gas fired. Demand is rising as Natural Gas is a "clean" fuel for electric power generation. The Gas Research Institute and the National Petroleum Council (NPC) state that demand will continue to increase at the rate of 32 TCF over the next 25 to 30 years. Security analysts at Dan Rauscher Wessels Inc. project that more than 275 new natural gas-fired power plants are planned to begin operation by 2006 and consume about 8.5 TCF/year. In short - there simply isn't going to be enough production to feed these power plants.
THE EMERGING ENERGY CRISIS
The Northwest Power Planning Council is an agency that includes the states Idaho, Oregon, Montana and Washington. They report that demand for electricity has grown 24 percent in the past decade while new generation has grown only 4 percent. When the state of California is factored in, the gap between supply and demand is much greater. The "Energy Crisis" situation is also becoming dangerously acute on the east coast of the US as well. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham recently stated that the situation is critical and that New England may be subject to rolling blackouts as early as this summer. As each new area is affected, Wall Street investors become more shaken and lose confidence in the economy. Add to this the retirement of older facilities of other "dirty" fuels and the numerous environmental regulations soon due to go into effect and you get the "big picture."
LACK OF PRODUCTION AND EXPLORATION
Another major problem that is clearly pointed out in the March 2001 issue of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) "Explorer" is that of staffing. There is an acute shortage of skilled and experienced geophysicists. The retirement of staff and loss of staff during the days of low petroleum prices has resulted in a severe shortage of competent personnel. It should be noted that the schools do not graduate many skilled individuals in the geosciences as most students do not wish to enter into an unstable career. Those days are about to change however. In spite of the unintelligible mumblings of environmentalists, energy demand necessitates an aggressive campaign to discover more sources of energy. Even nuclear power could become fashionable again. The petroleum industry has moved on to recruit math and physics majors at the nation's educational institutions. The problem is that the intense competition with a multitude of industries such as technology and teaching for example make recruitment in what is perceived as an unstable industry as a "tough sell." It should also be noted that many labor positions in the petroleum industry are not the best paid and are physically demanding. Experienced people have left and are not coming back, and younger potential workers are more inclined to choose easier work for comparable pay.
The shortage of drill rigs continues to plague the industry as well. It is estimated that at most there will be about 1250 drill rigs available for exploration by next summer. Currently there are about 1150 (about 950 drilling for natural gas). Most manufacturers of drill rigs either went out of business or into other pursuits during the era of low petroleum prices. They are reluctant to get back in while they are still licking their wounds. Some exploration and production companies are scavenging the junkyards for old rigs and parts in order to increase production. As a result, natural gas prices are destined to rise. It should be noted that natural gas storage is at a record low and the lack of permitting to construct new natural gas pipelines has also had a severe impact.
Adding to the Northwest's energy worries is a severe drought, shrinking reservoirs behind some of the World's biggest hydroelectric dams to their lowest levels in 25 years and cutting deeply into available supplies. During years with normal rainfall, Hydro-power accounts for about 70 percent of Washington state's electricity. During the summer months the Northwest supplies California with a substantial amount of power. This summer it appears that California will have to look elsewhere. Recently hydro-geologists for the state of California announced that the snowpack levels in the Sierra's are only at 60% of normal. A disaster is in the making.
Coal is an important source of power in the US. Coal is considered a "dirty" fuel. Environmental regulations require that sulfur emissions be reduced in order to reduce the effects of acid rain. The largest source of low sulfur coal comes from the western US. The state of Wyoming supplies a major portion of the US low-sulfur coal requirements. A potentially large source of low-sulfur coal is in the recently created Escalante Staircase National Monument in southern Utah. This source is now off-limits. The major problem for coal as a source of power is that when power plants use up their "carbon credits" they must either shutdown for the rest of the year or purchase new "carbon credits" on the open market. Therefore coal as a major source of fuel for power going forward could be limited.
There's a lot of political and environmental opposition to nuclear energy. The Chernobyl and Three Mile Island incidents have frightened many citizens about the potential for a disaster. Nuclear power could go a long way toward supplying much of the US energy needs. It can supply clean energy at a competitive cost. However, there have been no new permits for nuclear power plants in over 25 years. Recently both Vice President Dick Cheney and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham have suggested that nuclear power should be a consideration.
FAILING ELECTRICAL GRID
Add to this the widespread public opposition to placing building electrical power plants anywhere near their neighborhood, and there were not many incentives for power plant construction. The "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) mentality has also forced political leaders to also oppose construction. In the Western states it has been 10 years since a major power plant was brought on line. Now there is a rush to build power plants. Virtually all new planned power plants are natural gas fired.
Years of neglect have resulted in an aging power grid. There is simply not enough infrastructure to transmit power for the burgeoning "New Economy." The 203,600-mile high voltage network linking power plants to neighborhood distribution lines are falling into disrepair. There have been few changes in 50 years. Electrical power distribution now travels ever greater distances to reach more lucrative markets. This is putting a huge strain on the system, leading to bottlenecks that often create shortages rather than ease them. Upgrades are still uneconomic because the transmission rates grid operators can charge are still tightly regulated, leaving them little financial incentive to invest in their aging lines.
The era of "Cheap Energy" is over. The cost of power will increase and the costs will be passed on to the consumer resulting in inflation and tightly squeezed profit margins for US businesses. The "New Economy" will consume ever greater amounts of energy. The ability to produce energy is hampered by an array to regulations, lack of personnel and equipment, and a failing distribution infrastructure. In short, we are in an "Energy Crisis" and it will get much worse. The "New Fifth Horseman" is really not so new, but is now becoming recognized as a real threat to the US economy. As in the past, gold will serve as a "lifeboat" to help the prepared to navigate these dangerous waters. Gold rose in value during economic uncertainty while other "investments" dragged down the unprepared into the depths of despair.
- Black Blade
the Grail (04/02/01; 06:42:42MT
- usagold.com msg#: 51239)
***********The New Fifth Horseman***************
Under the cover of darkness, in the land called Confusion, where anxieties were running high, rode in the fifth horseman. "My sons, you have done well, you make me proud but we still have more to do." The sons were so happy to see their father, but they were tired from their previous endeavors and wanted to rest. The sons TSMM, EI, AC and RO, knew that their father would not let this be for long. The sons asked "what would you like us to do now?" The father replied "I'll tell you when the time is right. IT WILL BE SOON". As the fire dwindled down he said "sleep now, we will talk some more tomorrow."The sons had to have respect for their father, he was most wise, most patient, most stealthy, but also most demanding. He was the alpha male wolf so to speak. The one who will watch the herd and look for that tell tale limp, and the perfect time to strike..
The next morning, he set the sons off on their daily chores while he made the coffee. They would report to him when they got back. "Everyone got their coffee?" he said and they all responded to the affirmative. "Well, TSMM how's the DOW and the DUCK doing?" "They are going down as planned" was the response. "Good, well AC, how's Asia?" "Great, their even giving their money away now." "Excellent, well EI is the Euro one line yet?" "It will be in January" "Good we still need a little more time anyway." "Well RO, my favorite son, how are the oil prices?" " It's going just as planned the prices arn't too high YET because that would make the infidels suspicious. So, I did the next best, I turned the valve two turns closed." "Great, Excellent! I love it when a plan comes together!" Tonight around the campfire, I put all of the pieces of the plan together for you.
The fire was in full blaze crackling and popping, and the sun was down. The reflection of the fire on their eager faces, awaiting the details of the plan, gave them a demonic appearance. "Father please tell us now!!!" So the fifth, stood in front of his children, looking like the conductor of a quartet, and told the plan.
"Ultimately for gold to go up, we have to devalue the $US, and get it off that global reserve status. The first step that TSMM is accomplishing is to change the PERCEPTION that stocks are "as good as gold". He is doing a fine job at that but it takes time, and we need this time for EI's part of the plan to completely unfold. We have to wait for the Euro to become a real physical currency, one that jingles, rather than just digital data. This will start to psychologically unite the Europeans. Then Russia joins the EU. The EU should be quite self sufficient, in time just trading amongst themselves and ME. You see, we will be just fine driving Mercedes instead of Cadillacs. We make a trade deal with EU, oil and ng at bargain prices for euros or gold, and good prices for goods and services that we need. We open the taps to Europe and close the valves to the US. Since the US only produces about 40% of their consumption, their industry will shrink by 60%. Sixty % less industry equals 60% less jobs. There will be massive unemployment, power outages, and debt default. Their credit bubble will implode, as well as derivative defaults. Their banking system will be destroyed. As they try to recover in time, our oil will be extremely expensive for them, since their money is worthless and we demand payment in gold or Euros. The US imports go up do to no productivity there, at the same time Europe is self sufficient.US industrial base will be devastated, due to no electricity, no oil, no ng, therefore no growth, no exports. The US economy will come to a screeching halt. All of the $US will come home to live on Greenspan's desk. That will be when, he will wish he had an Aladin's magic lamp to call upon the "genie greenie".
GOLD WILL RULE, and guess who owns the gold? ...M.E.
May your cups overflow,
I'm trying for my first,
SEER (04/02/01; 08:43:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51244)
Price guess and corrected Fifth Horseman entry
******The New Fifth Horseman******
The real Fifth Horseman will spur Demand to the level of Panic Buying! Now, think about whatever has brought you to buy and buy and then buy more! That only happens when the bargains are so great that you will buy without thinking, you will buy without hesitation, you will buy even if you don't need the item offered! If they offered you a painting by Rembrandt for $50, you would go into panic buy mode! If they offered you the original copy of the U. S. Declaration of Independence for $50 you wouldn't bat an eye nor wait a second! You would just buy on the spot, allowing that any possible fakery could be checked out after the purchase!
It is the same way with gold! The Fifth Horseman will ride in as the Declining Paper Price, a price so low that Demand runs rampant, a price so low that the ugliest Bear in the market will place his order to Buy! It will be a price so low that no hedge fund can resist the temptation to Buy, and Buy Big! Even the mines will buy, and buy, and buy, to the limit of their treasury!
Remember when silver went to $50 an ounce? People were selling their rings, their silverware, and their trophies! People were ready to melt down their antiques, their heirlooms, their amulets, their inlaid teeth and their silver chalices! It was a riot of selling!
With gold it will be the complete reverse, a buying panic! No one will be able to place his order soon enough! Every player will be on the telephone, seeking to be first in line at the order desk! People with high contacts will be seeking to use their influence to get to the head of the line. They will pay richly just to be put on the buyers' list! There will be threats and promises, all with the same purpose! In a buying panic it is every man for himself, devil take the hindmost, reach for the sky and buy, buy, buy!
Behold the Fifth Horseman, the Declining Paper Price! He rides with money bag in hand, holding it close to his vest, as he seeks the Golden Fleece, when the price is right!
Max Rabbitz (04/02/01; 08:59:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 51245)
***** Fifth Horseman*******
According to the table on page one of the March News & Views, there was an estimated negative 14 metric tons of Forward Sales/Gold Leasing/Option Hedging in 2000. Now higher lease rates imply a shortage of physical gold. I expect there to be growing pressure to force miners into forward selling. In addition to the attempted takeover of Goldfields in South Africa by AngloGold (Rothschilds) there is also TVX Gold which it is now feared is about to fall into the hands of their bullion banker creditors. Should these events occur a new flood of forward sold gold is likely to depress gold markets for perhaps another year.
By then other mines would be ready for capitulation. I think this is their plan. Few if any mines will survive. Of course this forward sold gold is still in the ground and requires lending from above ground stocks to satisfy real market demand. This requires confidence that the financial and economic system will survive and the gold will eventually be mined. It is confidence alone that holds this system up. A confidence game, as Sir Powell posted yesterday.
The Fifth Horseman that will destroy this confidence game is the implosion of the Great U.S. Credit Bubble. It is of historic proportions and continuing to expand. The following 5 points are from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin last Friday (see above link).
1) The average credit card debt per household now amounts to some $8,000. Altogether, consumer debt is at a record high, totaling $1.52 trillion.
2) It appears the first quarter experienced one of the strongest periods of debt issuance in history, with a staggering $223 billion of new debt coming to market in the U.S.
3) March saw $11.5 billion of home equity loan securitizations compared to about $2 billion during February. After three months, we are on record pace with $84 billion of asset-backs issued. This is compared to $290 billion issued for all of year-2000.
4) Broad money supply (M3) expanded by $10 billion last week, continuing the historic monetary expansion that has seen broad money expand at a 14% rate over the past three months.
5) "Corporate credit quality fell for the 12th straight quarter, the longest losing streak in a decade, because the U.S. economy is slowing, corporate profits are eroding and companies are taking on too much debt, Moody's Investors Service said this week. Not since 1988 through 1993, which encompassed the last recession and included 19 consecutive down quarters, has corporate credit quality headed south for so long."
The Fifth Horseman will ride as earnings of U.S. companies decline from overcapacity, higher energy costs, increasing import competition, and stock option and accounting irregularities catching up. When future earnings are perceived to be insufficient to service debts, defaults will appear imminent and confidence will evaporate. Interest rates will rise to cover the risk. Simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets will leave no where to run.....but gold. When stock markets and commodity exchanges take a Holiday or take measures to deter "speculators" (see Palladium) even surviving miners may be tied up. Of course MK's phone and Internet connections will also be a bit tied up.
24Wortel (04/02/01; 13:06:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 51261)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
With lowered heads and eyes cast down
Upon their fallen brother
The four remaining horseman await
One more sign from Another:
"Y2K was but a ploy,
To divert away attention
From the real horseman #5
Whose name I will now mention."
And then the visage before them lay,
With a voice they'd never heard.
"I have come at last to join you-
For mine's the final word.
I am feared by many,
Known by few,
I make the shackled free.
Arrogance and power fade
When put in front of me.
The masses are told
To deny my name
And believe instead in fraud.
But those who do the telling,
Deny there is a God.
So stand with me
We can not fail.
I have history as my proof.
So we embark
As horsemen five-
You shall know me now as TRUTH.
You are facts, but facts alone
Cannot the lies defeat
For without TRUTH
Each horseman stands
Alone against deceit.
But next to me a fact is real
TRUTH will make it known
And no denial can make a change
Once the seed is sown."
So away they rode, the horsemen five
Much stronger than before
And as the TRUTH becomes well known
The demand for gold will soar.
Genoo (04/02/01; 13:53:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51268)
******The New Fifth Horseman*****
The new fifth horseman is the coming resolution of the enormous current US debt load.
So far, the market is still largely in denial of the loss of the bull market and bull economy. It doesn't quite believe that it's really gone and is still hoping it will soon be back so that losses will not have to be faced and the party can go on. Market forces are still trying to rationalize what has happened as something that can be rapidly reversed.
For example the majority of analysts are bullish. Even top rated economists, one being the chief Merrill guru, recently wrote that the economic recovery has been delayed by Greenspan "fumbling" by having recently dropped short rates only 50 basis points compared to the expected 75 point decrease. I wonder when the Fed last dropped rates 150 points in 3 months? Perspective reveals the shallowness and even silliness of such an argument.
What has been delayed is the market's adjustment to reality. A large factor delaying the processing of the new reality is the denial of the unprecedented debt load across the board from personal to corporate. The amount of economic pain that will be associated with facing and dealing with that debt, being largely unknown, is perhaps as yet too scarey for the 'market' to face. Once faced, all major markets will correct to the appropriate level. The consequences of that correction will be felt by everyone and will include a new and appropriate value for the US dollar.
Given all of the uncertainty and the historic inverse relationship between the US dollar and the precious yellow, could there be a better time to prepare yourself for what is to come than by maximizing you holdings in the best financial insurance available, namely gold bullion.
Peter Asher (04/02/01; 15:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51282)
******The New Fifth Horseman******
The Galloping Generation Gap
The new threat to the system is that power generation capacity is tapping out. Almost every day we have seen further news of insufficiency both in present time and in the immediate future. The constantly increasing demand has suddenly collided with static capacity, higher fuel costs for generation and a hydro-electric drought throughout the West. The shortfall will stimulate massive investment to create new generation and distribution facilities and new automotive and generation technologies. This will create a boom in those industries along with a surge in demand for copper, silver and any other commodity that is part of the equation. This will require a mobilization, albeit on a smaller scale, akin to the "War Effort" of WWII.
After-market investing routes borrowed funds through equities into the hands of consumers. However, financing the above will inject working capital into the system. This results in the expansion of the infrastructure which, in turn, serves to produce and deliver. Only after that occurs does the money then flow into consumption, via the hands of those employed.
I propose that there are three basic forms of price inflation: stagflation, hyperinflation and cost- based inflation. Stagflation occurs when a confluence of high capital and production costs create an environment in which only the most solvent entities are left standing and able to command the higher price of survival. Hyperinflation is specifically a phenomena of massive currency buying power operating in an environment of low productive capability and scarce resources. In this presnt case we will have an economic mobilization injecting credit into activities that create production and full employment while not simultaneously creating more consumer good and services in the process. As this activity gathers momentum it will offset the disinflation thrust of the current seller's market in the existing economic pipeline. As a "cost-based" inflation, this will not be subject to the gyrations of monetary antics and therein lies a different environment regarding gold.
Over the past four years we have seen the greatest economic boom in history occur without a significant price inflation nor a concurrent demand market for gold. My conclusion on this, is that market competition generated by the Internet carved out a huge portion of the mercantile profit in the system, thereby offsetting the inflationary thrust of a ëfat pocketbook economy'.Any ëwealth transfer' boom is empirically destined to burnout and fall back and therefore ëKnowledgeable' long term money has not (yet) been accumulating gold.
In a product based economic expansion however, the rising price levels are built on a solid foundation. That may stabilize when the event has run its course but it is then a larger economic structure capable of sustaining itself without a subsequent contraction. The "War Effort" was proof of that. War Bond capitalization built a massive productive infrastructure which was then in place for the "Postwar boom."What had been brought forth to produce tanks, guns , ships and aircraft converted to countless new products across the economic spectrum.
Consider where the price of gold would have been had it been available as an investment vehicle at that time. Then, consider also, that FDR confiscated gold prior to letting Pearl Harbor come about and create WWII to resurrect our economy. From there it is only one small step further to believe that the first event was put in place because the second one was already on the drawing board.
In conclusion then, it is absolutely essential that mobilization of power generation and new energy technologies take place. There will not b a doomsday scenario, The movers and shakers with their hundred million dollar equity portfolios are not going to let the wealth factor vaporize. This is why they fired the Democrats and rehired the Republicans; the system was being cannibalized.
If the phenomena apply as I have laid it out, a firm demand for gold should ensue. What happens next, with a 14000 (?) Ton short position, is something this Forum will enjoy contemplating.
Simply Me (04/02/01; 16:10:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51289)
****** The New Fifth Horseman *****
The Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse has not failed! Nor has he disappeared! He has only changed his name and his appearance. Instead of armor, this Horseman wears veils. His power is in his insubstantial nature. He destroys his opponents by wasting their energy...making them tilt at
windmills like mad Don Qixotes.
He appeared in 1999 as the Y2k bug, threatening to destroy our computer-driven life support system. But since that name no longer inspires dread, he is busy morphing into a new persona. His new face has not yet set. He may choose to be War in the Middle East. Or, more promising, maybe he will take on the face of the Euro and threaten to destroy the US Dollars economic supremacy. But most likely, he will take the face of China...a triple threat if ever there was one! Industrial competition, military opposition, AND a natural appetite for gold in newly opened markets, just now making it's power known to the rest of the world!
But as I said, this is only one of the Fifth Horseman's illusory names and faces. Strip away his veils and illusions and you will see only FEAR. Fear is his true name. Fear for livelihoods. Fear for safety. Fear for the ability to provide food and shelter for our families.
Fear made thousands buy gold in 1999 in preparation for in Y2k meltdown. And along with his brother Horsemen, Fear will drive all of our economic preparations again, in the US and in every other part of the world. Fear is known everywhere; he wears different names and faces for different coutries and cultures, but there he is nonetheless. Fear drives gold demand, which in turn creates scarcity and higher prices. Fear is the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalyptic Reign of Gold.
Thanks for the opportunity to participate,
AUgustUS (04/02/01; 23:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51302)
********The New Fifth Horseman***********
Throughout these past few months, several "lone" horseman have been sent out into the world of gold. "Y2K" was but one of several knights sent out by our fifth horseman to create a subtle diversion. "Y2K's" mission has been accomplished. "Y2K" merely revealed one of the many "faces" of our 5th horseman. The face revealed was that of ........"complacency". Do not be fooled. Complacency is not our 5th horseman. Complacency is but one of his "fallible" attributes.
The doom and gloom predictions surrounding Y2K - were NOT "fulfilled". Numerous doom and gloom scenarios that have "threatened" the worlds' financial system over the past few years - have apparently - NOT been "fulfilled". This may well be wishful thinking.
The Euro's introduction is still being debated in the "media" in terms of whether it is going to be successfully launched or not. The fact that the EU is "managing" it's currency on a "sound" monetary basis is lost to the "economists" of the world. The fact that the EU has been following a "stricter" interest rate policy than the US these past few months indicates their commitment to the long-term standing of the Euro as a worthy "international" trade currency substitute to the US dollar. The merits of the Euro and it's functioning have been well explained by others more proficient than myself.
Oil has been delivering on his promise - yet his effects are still being labeled by the "media" as a short-term anomaly. The repercussions of his actions are being "massaged away" through "trusted statistics". Improvements in PC processing power and now the possibility of improved medical technology are being labeled as "cost saving" and "productivity enhancing" indicators. Given that food and energy are not important to anybody - these are conveniently left out of the equations. However, just as the Euro is well on the road to fulfill it's international monetary role, so has the soft underbelly of the entire "real economic production chain" been exposed by the superb "disguised" performance of oil.
The stock market meltdown is still being debated in terms of whether it is - or is not - in a bear market. The media has not made much fuss about Cisco. Just over a year ago, Cisco was apparently the largest company in the world by market capitalization. As of last week (only 1 year later), it is now some 70-80 % down from it's high's. Think about that for a minute. The largest company in the world just over a year ago is now down 70-80 %. Are we in a bear market or not ? Does the performance of Cisco as the largest company in the world just over a year ago not give us some idea of what we can expect ? "Complacency" and "rationalisation" (another face of our 5th horseman) suggests that Cisco was just another anomaly.
The Asian contango has also merely been brushed under the carpet by the "media". Many skeletons still hang in those dusty "old" cupboards. They have all been declared "dead" by the media - while "complacency", "rationalisation" and "hope" (yet another face of our 5th horseman) have not bothered to follow up with the burials. These skeletons are all going to need to be "buried" before the living can continue on their journeys. As with all things in life, the chapters of life can only continue once the previous ones have been properly closed. There are still many chapters to be written. However, there are many chapters that first need to be properly closed. The burials are going to painful, but necessary.
So then, what do these few faces (complacency, rationalisation & hope) reveal about the identity of our 5th horseman and his much anticipated rush to physical gold ownership ? The revealed faces are those of "the man in the street". Our 5th horseman is no one other than "the man in the street".
All the "permanent" and "temporary" horseman todate have simply been preparing the battle lines along which the final rush to gold will play itself out. The 5th horseman is waiting in the wings. He has been using every "face" available to "avoid" joining the fray. Once the "stage has been set" - our 5th horseman will be set loose to "play his part".
The final catalyst to the unfolding world events will be the full participation of our 5th horseman racing down centre stage. Through the harnessing of the "uncontrollable (yet directable) animal instincts" of our 5th horseman - the "landscape" as we currently know it will be permanently changed.