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Welcome to USAGOLD's "Gilded
Opinion" pages.
We invite you to browse our index
of outstanding gold-based commentary.
(Back to Holger Jensen Index)
While we find Mr. Jensen's columns particularly informative with respect to foreign affairs, his opinions do not necessarily represent those of Centennial Precious Metals, USAGOLD, its management and clientele.
INSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Euro launch, 59 conflicts,
huge debt default greet '02
by Holger Jensen, International Editor
The world enters the New Year with history's largest currency changeover, the biggest debt default, an open-ended war on terrorism and at least 58 other unresolved conflicts of varying intensity.
Today's euro launch brings 15 billion new bank notes and 52 billion coins into circulation in 12 European nations. Their total value: 646 billion euros, or $568 billion.
The new money was actually introduced in 1999 but existed only as an exchange rate for national currencies to let the Europeans get used to it. Now that it's physically a common currency, residents of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain will have two months to surrender their marks, francs, guilders, lira, escudos and pesos.
Three members of the 15-nation European Union -- Britain, Sweden and Denmark -- opted out of the euro. But it will enter their borders through tourism and trade, increasing pressure on them to join. Helmut Kohl, who pushed hard for the euro when he was chancellor of Germany, expects all to adopt the common currency, along with non-EU member Switzerland, within six to 10 years.
While many of the 306 million Europeans affected by the change express nostalgia for their old money, Wim Duisenberg, president of the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank, says it will help them think of themselves as citizens of a continent rather than a nation, "strengthening the process of European integration and contributing to peace and prosperity."
Skeptics question the prosperity part, pointing out that the euro has fallen steadily in value over the past three years. It was worth $1.17 in Jan.1, 1999, and now hovers at about 88 cents. But economists say this has helped rather than hurt the European economy, which has enjoyed low inflation and steady growth.
As proof of this, they cite the fact that euro nations were relatively unscathed by the global economic turmoil following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States. Elsewhere in the world, according to the International Labor Organization, 24 million people lost their jobs and 15 million sank deeper into poverty.
Argentina's $132 billion debt default was the largest the world had ever seen. It sparked bloody riots, toppled two governments in 10 days and sent shock waves throughout Latin America.
Exactly what the default will mean for South America's second largest economy is unclear. Optimists say Argentina could rebound as quickly as Russia did after its 1998 default. Pessimists predict a messy devaluation, a return to hyperinflation and spiraling poverty, sparking further unrest and violence.
The war on terrorism ranked as the "most dangerous conflict" around the world last year, not only because of the attacks on New York and Washington but also because of a probability of future attacks on American soil.
The designation was made by the National Defense Council Foundation, a Washington think tank headed by a former Special Forces officer. It cited threats from "multiple terrorist groups out there beyond Osama bin Laden," who may take advantage of U.S. vulnerabilities by staging, for example, "a catastrophic attack against one of our nation's ports."
Overall, the foundation counted 59 conflicts, 21 of them in Africa. Not all are wars, since the list includes countries racked by terrorism, tribal or religious fighting, political violence, coups, such as a successful one in the Comoros islands and an unsuccessful one in Haiti, army mutinies and even high crime rates.
The CIA has a more conservative list of 30 real wars while the Washington-based Center for Defense Information, another think tank, counts 38 major conflicts in which casualties have exceeded 1,000.
The worst of these are in Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Colombia, Congo, Kashmir, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka and Sudan. But Indonesia, while not technically at war, suffers recurring fighting between Muslims and Christians, while the Philippines, and China also have to contend with Muslim separatists.
Ghana snagged the dubious honor of "stupidest conflict" when a quarrel between two young men over an act of vandalism escalated into an ethnic war between the Mamprusi and Kusasi tribes.
January 1, 2002
Send your questions to international editor Holger Jensen, who will answer one each day. E-mail: hjens@aol.com
Copyright © 2001 The E.W. Scripps Co. All Rights Reserved.
Reprinted by USAGOLD with permission of Mr. Jensen. No further reproduction without permission.
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