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Welcome to USAGOLD's "Gilded
Opinion" pages.
We invite you to browse our index
of outstanding gold-based commentary.
(Back to Holger Jensen Index)
While we find Mr. Jensen's columns particularly informative with respect to foreign affairs, his opinions do not necessarily represent those of Centennial Precious Metals, USAGOLD, its management and clientele.
INSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Rebuilding Afghanistan more
daunting than war
by Holger Jensen, International Editor
The Taliban have been ousted from all but a few pockets of resistance in Afghanistan, a new government takes over Saturday and its leader vows to end "warlordism" and "the rule of the gun."
To help Prime Minister Hamid Karzai keep this pledge in a country torn apart by two decades of war, a United Nations force of 2,000 to 4,000 soldiers will be deployed to keep the peace in Kabul, the capital, and other cities while U.S. troops and their anti-Taliban allies mop up the last remnants of the enemy.
So has the war on terrorism been won? Or is Phase 1, at least, over?
No.
Although Taliban rule has ended and many in Osama bin Laden's terrorist network have been captured, bin Laden himself and his chief protector, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, are nowhere to be found. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told reporters in Washington they could have escaped across the Afghan border or died in some cave.
Furthermore, killing or capturing bin Laden will not end the global threat. With hundreds of operatives worldwide and a support structure of 70,000 to 80,000 sympathizers who are believed to have passed through his training camps, al-Qaida is too deep and far-flung to be shut down by neutralizing one man.
"To disrupt or dismantle the organization we need to go beyond one leader and get down into middle management, or at least upper-middle management," J.T. Caruso, acting head of the FBI's counterterrorism division, told a panel of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Although we may reduce the horrific consequences by 30 percent, we still have 70 percent to deal with."
Foreign governments, led by the United States, have rushed to reopen their embassies in Kabul and promise aid. All acknowledge that 10 years of international neglect fueled Afghanistan's civil war, helped bring Islamic fanatics to power and made the country a haven for terrorists.
"The Afghan people paid a great price for this decade of neglect and abuse," said U.S. special envoy James Dobbins. "On Sept. 11, the United States and the rest of the international community also paid a great price. We have an enlightened self-interest in helping Afghanistan."
But peacekeeping and postwar reconstruction may prove to be more daunting than the military campaign.
Already there have been arguments among European contributors to the U.N. force. Britain, which will lead the peacekeepers, suggested linking the command to that of American forces. Germany is adamantly against this.
"There must be strict separation between the ongoing U.S. military operation and the U.N. force," German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping told a NATO meeting in Brussels.
French Defense Minister Alain Richard adopted a more neutral tone, but pointed out that the peacekeepers will need "air cover and support from the U.S. fighting forces." They will also need major logistical backup and reconaissance help to guard against the risk of a rebel Afghan warlord deciding to raid Kabul.
That is not far-fetched.
Despite Karzai's pledge to stamp out gun rule, that is all Afghanistan has known since the end of Soviet occupation. The new government created at a meeting in Bonn is more the result of wishful thinking by outside powers than any real desire for power-sharing or unity among Afghanistan's rival warlords.
Many of its leaders, drawn from diverse ethnic groups, do not even know each other and Karzai's Cabinet was imposed on him.
Not only the warlords are a problem but also neighboring states that used them for their own ends. Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all played a role in Afghanistan's civil war and will be vying for influence with the post-Taliban government.
This prompts Robert Orr of the Center for Strategic and International Studies to worry that each Afghan warlord will align himself with a "favorite donor," leading to de facto partition.
Just who donates what will be determined in January, when Japan hosts a donors' conference. And Afghanistan won't come cheap. Estimates of what it will take to rebuild the country range from $20 billion to $56 billion.
December 20, 2001
Send your questions to international editor Holger Jensen, who will answer one each day. E-mail: hjens@aol.com
Copyright © 2001 The E.W. Scripps Co. All Rights Reserved.
Reprinted by USAGOLD with permission of Mr. Jensen. No further reproduction without permission.
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