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Welcome to USAGOLD's "Gilded
Opinion" pages.
We invite you to browse our index
of outstanding gold-based commentary.
(Back to Holger Jensen Index)
While we find Mr. Jensen's columns particularly informative with respect to foreign affairs, his opinions do not necessarily represent those of Centennial Precious Metals, USAGOLD, its management and clientele.
INSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS
U.S., China agree on business
ideas
by Holger Jensen, International Editor
When President Bush stopped calling China a "strategic competitor" and made it a "partner," he had more than terrorism on his mind.
China, which regards all separatists and "splittists" as terrorists, offers certain economic benefits to the United States that outweigh Beijing's mistreatment of rebellious Tibetans or Muslim Uighurs seeking to create an independent "East Turkestan" in Xinjiang province.
Sino-American trade now totals $120 billion a year, making the two countries interdependent. With the world sliding into recession and China likely to be least affected, it offers a cushion for U.S. business and a prospect of earlier recovery from the economic downturn that accelerated after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11.
The figures coming out of Washington and New York last week were certainly grim.
The Labor Department reported that 415,000 workers lost their jobs in October, the largest number in two decades. This raised the unemployment rate to 5.4 percent, a five-year high. The consumer-confidence index of the Conference Board, a closely watched business-research group, dropped from 97 in September to 85.5 in October, a seven-year low.
The factory index of the National Association of Purchasing Management also sank from 47 in September to 39.8 in October, a 10-year low. That marked the 15th straight month the index has held below the key level of 50, which signals contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Economists who had previously predicted a fourth-quarter fall of 1 percent to 1.5 percent in gross domestic product are now talking of a 2 percent or 3 percent plunge on top of the 0.4 percent third-quarter drop registered in September. That would confirm a recession, one almost certain to be worsened by simultaneous downturns in Europe and Japan.
In contrast, China's projected growth rate of more than 7 percent this year is expected to lose only half a percentage point. Which may explain why major U.S. corporations such as Microsoft, General Motors, Hewlett-Packard and Applied Materials all announced major investments in China, while Bush was wooing Chinese President Jiang Zemin.
The war on terrorism brought the two leaders together, but shared economic interests may, in the long run, provide a firmer foundation for the partnership they announced at the end of their three-hour summit in Shanghai.
Even before they met, Washington had toned down its rhetoric on support for Taiwan and criticism of China's human-rights record. Beijing, for its part, let it be known that it no longer held a grudge over the April 1 collison between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet, whose pilot was killed while the American aircraft had to make a forced landing on Hainan island.
The tenor of the new relationship became readily apparent when Bush did not jump to the defense of Taiwan after China tried to exclude the Nationalist island from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, eventually provoking a walkout by the Taiwanese delegation. Bush made no mention of it to Jiang and simply reaffirmed Washington's "one-China" policy -- i.e., that Taiwan is part of China and will eventually reunify with the mainland.
He did gently tell Jiang that the war on terrorism should not be used as an "excuse to persecute minorities." And Jiang did tell Bush that U.S. bombing of Afghanistan should have "clearly defined targets and hit accurately to avoid innocent casualties." But both were pro forma admonitions quickly overshadowed by Bush's praise of Jiang for standing "side by side with the American people" and Jiang's prediction of "a bright future" for U.S.-Chinese relations.
Just how bright may depend on the actions of two commissions mandated by Congress as conditions for permanent normal trade relations with China. Both have their China critics, who fear Bush is currying favor with Beijing at the expense of Taiwan. And with China about to join the World Trade Organization, both are about to go into high gear.
The Congressional-Executive Commission on China monitors human rights and such practices as the use of prison labor. The U.S.-China Security Review Commission monitors Chinese trade and investment patterns that may be harmful to U.S. national security. It must also determine how much China's trade surplus with the United States enhances its military capabilities.
"Partner" or "threat?"
November 6, 2001
Send your questions to international editor Holger Jensen, who will answer one each day. E-mail: hjens@aol.com
Copyright © 2001 The E.W. Scripps Co. All Rights Reserved.
Reprinted by USAGOLD with permission of Mr. Jensen. No further reproduction without permission.
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