Editor's note: What caught my eye about this analysis was not just the $25,000 target, but the fifty year timeline. It infers, if Mr. Gilburt is correct, a long-term Kondratieff-like process rather than an event. Of course, such a process will not occur in a vacuum. In fact, it suggests a major, long-term reconfiguration of the monetary system as we know it – an historical trend best hedged by holding the physical metal in the form of coins and bullion as an alternative savings vehicle. Said physical ownership should be established in concert with, or before, exploring any speculative opportunities. MK
by Avi Gilburt
Suppose someone approached you in the year 2000, when the price of gold was around $250 an ounce and suggested that it would be worth almost eight times its current value within the next decade. I am sure most people would have thought that person to be less than credible making such an outrageous market call. Think about it. An asset being expected to multiply by eightfold within a decade? But as we all know now, gold went from $250 an ounce to just over $1,900 an ounce in just that amount of time.
What if I was to tell you that gold could make another such run over the next decade plus? Does it seem that outrageous now? Well, I think the math shows it can and will, with the price of gold futures surpassing $25,000, and more specifically for this column, the price on the Gold Bug Index HUI, -0.85% eclipsing 15,000. But let's take a look back before we go forward.
It's the middle of 2011. Gold was rising parabolically — some days even advancing by $50 per day — and heading over $1,900. Breaking the $2000 mark to most was a sure thing.
Think if someone walked up to you then and stated that the price of gold would be cut in half within four years. It would be an outrageous market call. In many ways, it would be no different than the person suggesting that gold would go from $250-$1900 within a little over a decade.
Well, in August 2011, I was that person. In fact, in my first gold column on Seeking Alpha, I warned investors:
"Since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave 'blow-off-top,' I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time."
At the time, everyone was so intoxicated with expectations of eclipsing the $2,000 mark that they failed to see the impending top. As we now know, gold topped in September of 2011, at just under $1,921, which was within $6 dollars of my target. We then began this multi-year correction within which we now find ourselves.
Many are probably wondering how I came up with such an accurate target for a top to a market that was rising parabolically. My answer is that the topping target was calculated using a 200-year Elliott Wave and Fibonacci mathematics study. To make this market call even more prescient, before we even topped, I identified the downside targets for gold within the correction I expected. I was looking for gold to drop from the 1900 region, down to a minimum of $1,400 an ounce, but, more likely, the $700-$1000 region.
For those who still question how well Elliott Wave can really provide long-term accurate predictions of market direction relative to all other methodologies, allow me to present you with the following prediction made by Ralph Nelson Elliott in August of 1941:
" should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012."
For those of you who do not understand this quote, Elliott was predicting the start of a 70-year bull market in the face of World War II raging around him. Quite an amazing prediction, no?
Let's come back to the year 2015. Now, someone stands before you and tells you that gold will be worth almost 10 times the current value within a decade. What would you think?
I stand before you today, almost feeling like Elliott did back in 1941. Yes, in 2015, I am seeing this correction finally completing (but at much lower levels) and starting a major bull market phase that can last the next 50 years.
So, while many that have read my analysis over the last three years have viewed me as being the staunchest of bears in the metals world, I will be switching sides and moving strongly into the bull camp, especially after we see the next and final decline which will likely take place over the next half a year.
In fact, if you look at the Gold Bugs Index HUI, -0.85% chart linked at the bottom of this column, you will see that our projections are calling for an almost tenfold increase in this index over the next decade or so, which will likely increase to a fifty-fold increase in the index over the next 20 or so years, and well beyond that in 50 years. Ultimately, we see the HUI over 15,000.
Yes, I know that this is quite a bold prediction. However, please remember that, for me, it is all a matter of mathematics and nothing more.
Now, let's put this market prediction within the context of Elliott's back in 1941. At that time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 100. Yes, you heard me right. 100. Seventy years later, we are at a multiple of more than 180 times that baseline. Our base line in the Gold Bugs Index will likely be in the 100-125 region when it finally bottoms. So, based upon this relative perspective, does it seem so unreasonable to foresee this index as high as 15,000 within 50 years?
When the market was setting up to top in 2011, I was going so far as to even be looking for the market to be cut in half. Now, in 2015, I am likely going to begin looking up — especially after we strike the lower lows I still expect. I wonder if I will be standing alone again. But with the upside truly no different than the impending major bull market that Elliott foresaw in 1941, I would hope that some of you will be joining me for this ride. Yes, my friends and fellow investors, we are now on the cusp of the next major bull market in the investing world.
See chart illustrating the wave count on the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI).
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.
Reprinted with permission.
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