DMR–Gold regains initiative as we start the week

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold regained the initiative as we start the week after Friday’s modest drop – up $11 in the early going at $1229.  Silver is up 18¢ at $14.76. Concerns that the China-U.S. trade war could escalate to a more generalized ‘cold war’ are playing a key role in gold’s turnaround that began last Thursday. Potential sanctions against Saudi Arabia and the implications for the oil market are also preying on investors’ minds.  Underlying all, though, is the rising interest rate environment and its generalized effect on a number of markets ranging from emerging countries to global debt markets and U.S., Asian and European stock markets.  Gold is trading at a 3-month high.

Quote of the Day
“Take some advice from two observers who have been around for awhile: The long term gets here before you know it. . . .Instead, we’d be dependent on foreign investors’ acquiring most of our debt — making the government dependent on the ‘kindness of strangers’ who may not be so kind as the I.O.U.s mount up. We can’t let that happen — not if we want an America that is able to provide growth and stability at home while maintaining global leadership. We would risk returning with a vengeance to stagflation — the ugly combination of inflation and economic stagnation that we tasted in the 1970s.” – Paul A. Volker and Peter G. Peterson

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  Popular belief holds that foreign investors and central banks hold the lion’s share of the nearly $22 trillion federal debt.  These charts from the St. Louis Federal Reserve tell the real story.  Though it has not always been the case, private domestic investors now hold the largest share of the national debt at $13.1 trillion. Foreign investors are number two at $6.2 trillion. Federal Reserve banks are number three at $2.8 trillion.  As you can see, federal debt held by private investors is on an ascending curve while both foreign and Federal Reserve banks’ purchases have leveled off. At present, private investors hold more than half the national debt (59.3%)  as shown in the pie chart at the very top. Foreign investors hold 28.1% of the U.S. federal debt.

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Gold 7-year bear market phase over

Gold Eagle/Clive Maund/1-15-2018

“Thursday last week was a momentous day for the Precious Metals sector with gold, GDX and other índices, and giant gold ETF, GLD all breaking out on impressive volume, and this development was all the more extraordinary because it happened when the broad stockmarket was crashing. This is viewed as a strong sign that instead of being dragged lower still by a crashing stockmarket, the PM sector will soar. Silver hasn’t broken out yet, but it should soon follow suit.”

USAGOLD note:  Clive Maund sees the technical factors lining-up in gold’s favor and a couple of major differences between now and 2008 when gold declined at the start of a financial crisis.  One is currently depressed price levels compared to elevated levels in 2008.  The other is a “grimmer” long term outlook for gold based on geopolitical factors. Details at the link. . . . . .

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Global crisis enters ‘critical third phase’

Credit Bubble Bulletin/Doug Noland/10-13-2018

“I posited some months back that tumult in the emerging markets marked the second phase of unfolding Crisis Dynamics. I have argued that the global government finance Bubble, history’s greatest Bubble, has been pierced at the ‘periphery.’ More recently, the analytical focus has been on ‘Periphery to Core Crisis Dynamics.’ I’ve chronicled de-risking/deleveraging dynamics making headway toward the ‘Core.’ This week the ‘Core’ became fully enveloped, as the unfolding global crisis entered a critical third phase.”

USAGOLD note:  We have been following Doug Noland’s writings of late with a great deal of interest.  Here is the latest chapter.  Noland understands credit markets – the make-up and unwinding of financial bubbles.

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China central bank governor promises to keep yuan ‘broadly stable’

Reuters/David Lawder and Yawen Chen/10-14-2018

“China will continue to let the market play a decisive role in the formation of the RMB exchange rate. We will not engage in competitive devaluation, and will not use the exchange rate as a tool to deal with trade frictions.” – Yi Gang, governor, Peoples Bank of China (as reported by Reuters at the link above)

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Inflation and deflation: Keep your portfolio safe

Investopedia/Lisa Smith

“Sometimes it’s hard to tell whether inflation or deflation is the bigger threat. When you can’t tell what to do, plan for both. A diversified portfolio that includes allocation to investments that fare well during inflationary periods and investments that fare well during deflationary periods can provide a measure of protection regardless of what happens in the economy.”

USAGOLD note: A gold diversification can go a long way in protecting against either or both and all the hybrids in between. Please see: Black Swans, Yellow Gold – How gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation.


Repost from July, 2018

 

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Gold tracking higher in overnight markets . . .

 . . . as Asian stocks, Dow futures drop.  Trade concerns dominate.  Worries about oil, possible Saudi sanctions also a factor.

Dow futures down almost 200. Gold trading at the $1232 level, up $13.50.  Silver, $14.76 – up 18¢.

USAGOLD Online Order Desk taking orders – open 24/7.

More later –

 

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Rally erupted in gold market days after funds made big bear bet

Bloomberg/Susanne Barton and Mavin G. Perez/10-12-2018

“For a measure of how much this week’s surge in gold prices may have caught many in the market by surprise, consider that hedge funds had just made their biggest-ever bearish wager on the metal days before.”

USAGOLD  note:  Some of the abrupt turnaround, as we suggested in our Thursday update, might have been due to some of those same players reversing short positions.  Here is what it looked like on the chart including volume bars (bottom) and a partial repost of Thursday’s update for those who missed it:

“This is the first time in 2018, a cursory review tells us, that gold has gone up when the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone down more than 1000 points – a break with recent trends that speaks to a possible resurgence of gold’s safe haven status. Too, we should not overlook the possible role of short-covering in today’s rally. Speculators have built-up a record short volume on the COMEX and will need to reverse those positions in order to lock-in profits. As an early indicator that sentiment might be shifting among funds and institutions, gold ETFs yesterday recorded net purchases of eight tonnes – “the first daily inflow since July” according to Commerzbank.”

More below. . . . .

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Last week was just a taste of the coming gold short squeeze

Dollar Collapse/John Rubino/10-13-2018

“These are historically huge imbalances that – if the action in the paper markets still has predictive value – point to a gold short squeeze in which the speculators who are now betting that precious metals will fall are forced to cover those positions by buying, in the process sending the price up dramatically. On Thursday we got a sense of what that might look like. Stock markets around the world sold off, which sent capital scurrying for cover. Some of that capital flowed into gold, which chased futures speculators out of some of their shorts. The result was a nice pop in gold. . .”

USAGOLD note:  The link above offers some details from John Rubino on the possibility of a short squeeze in the COMEX gold market. It includes a review of Friday’s Commitment of Traders numbers.

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Favorite web pages

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Black Swans
A chronology of panics, mania, crashes
and collapses
–– 400 BC to present ––

Those who think it can’t happen here, or that this time around it’s different, should take note of the number of black swan events in American history alone. The record is formidable. Gold ownership is traditionally a form of battening down the hatches against these recurring storms and, for the minority who adhere to it, an effective and ever-ready defense. Nialls Ferguson, the economic philosopher, summed up what a good many were thinking in the wake of the 2008 meltdown when he said, “Those few goldbugs who always doubted the soundness of fiat money — paper currency without a metal anchor — have in large measure been vindicated. But why were the rest of us so blinded by money illusion?” Why indeed. . .

[LINK]

_________________________________________________

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Has the derivatives volcano already begun to erupt?

AsiaTimes/David P. Goldman/10-9-2018

Hedging the foreign exchange risk in this half-trillion-dollar per year business has exhausted the balance sheet of the global banking system. That explains a large part of the jump in the US 10-year note yield to 3.2% last Friday from 2.85% in early September. Hedging the foreign exchange risk in these massive flows created a derivatives mountain, and it has started to spew smoke and lava.

USAGOLD note:  We mentioned derivatives earlier today (please scroll).  This article zeroes in on one major area of concern as outlined in the snippet above.  Remember, this is only one area of concern among many. . . albeit a large one.

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America is overdue for another economic disaster

National  Review/George Will

“The durable market rise that began March 6, 2009, is as intoxicating as the Lehman anniversary should be sobering: Nothing lasts. Those who see no Lehman-like episode on the horizon did not see the last one.”

USAGOLD note:  This time around no one can claim that they weren’t warned or that they didn’t see it coming as was universally the case in 2008.  Now  the warnings come almost daily.


Repost from August 19, 2018

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Yap Money – A quick lesson on inflation

Monetarily speaking, everything progressed smoothly on the island of Yap where large stones weighing hundreds of pounds were transported around to serve as money. That is until something unforeseen happened to the value of the money. For centuries, the stones served in exchange because there wasn’t much of this type of rock on Yap itself. The depreciation of the stone money began when an enterprising Western businessman realized he could produce stone money cheaply and in copious quantities on a neighboring island and transport it to Yap, where it could be used to procure goods in demand elsewhere. In other words, this oceanic cousin of John Law printed Yap stone money to buy his wares at what might be called a “favorable” discount. By this process, the yap stone money was debased until it became worthless. Little did the citizens of Yap know that they were deprived of their wealth, and their money destroyed, by the process of monetary inflation.

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Get the jump on inflation with an investment in graded, historic U.S. $20 gold pieces

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“Historically rare coins as a grouping have enjoyed a well-earned reputation as an inflation hedge. USAGOLD has had direct experience in that regard as we recommended this investment area during the 1970s’ inflation and the accompanying coin market boom – a strategy we suggested then as “a diversification within a diversification.” For investors looking to get a jump on a possible resurgence of inflation, we are again recommending this area of investment. This time, however, we suggest acquisitions in a narrower frame of reference. . . . .”

CLIENT ALERT
by Michael J. Kosares
Founder – USAGOLD
Author – The ABCs of Gold Investing–How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold

_________________________________________________

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The USAGOLD Website – A guiding light for current and would-be clientele since 1997

Welcome newcomers!  We invite you to kick back, stay awhile, do some interest-driven browsing

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.  If you would like to witness that piece of technology in action, you can see it here at the WaybackMachine.  (Don’t laugh.)

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1996), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 22-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning (When you visit the WayBackMachine, take special note of the number of visitors registered on our counter!) we have grown to over 600,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is good place to start.  For a full site outline including links and page descriptions. . . . . .

We invite you to visit our
Table of Contents

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs bullish on gold

The Gold Telegraph/Tom Lewis/10-11-2018

“The head of global commodities and derivatives research [Bank of America Merrill Lynch], Francisco Blanch has stated that gold could average $1,350 an ounce of 2019 due to the U.S fiscal balance. . . .Goldman Sachs has also expressed their concern and has recently turned bullish on gold as they have forecasted a price target of $1,325 in 12 months.

USAGOLD note: Both firms cite the growing U.S. national debt as the primary impetus.

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No DMR today

Please check back though. We will post an update if circumstances warrant it.

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Squall for stocks rooted in rise for US bond yields

Financial Times/Joe Rennison, Nicole Bullock and Robin Wigglesworth/10-12-2018

“Weakness in Treasuries undermines the appeal of the long bull run in equities. . .”

USAGOLD note:  Rising rates present problems at many levels in financial markets, not least the cost of carry on all sorts of trades and positions, corporate debt of all kinds and sovereign debt.  Positions established in the zero per cent interest rate environment become increasingly a burden as rates rise and create the potential for significant, rapid liquidations – particularly if/when counter-parties make margin calls forcing asset sales.  The events of the past two days  serve as a healthy reminder of the dangers that come with leverage and derivatives.

As for gold, the potential for a leverage problem is on the short side of the market.  For details on what it might unleash, please see. . . .

Gold – A reverse bubble in search of a pin
The victim could quickly find itself the beneficiary

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Will gold get the last laugh?

FXStreet/Matt Simpson/10-12-2018

“At the beginning of the month we highlighted Gold’s potential to break higher. Noting the general lack of mean reversion throughout 2018’s decline, signs of bearish capitulation at the lows along with extreme short positioning, we felt gold was ‘vulnerable to rapid short-covering if market sentiment changes abruptly’. Well, sentiment certainly changed and gold’s prospects have picked up.”

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Fed’s role in ‘long overdue correction’

Bloomberg/Video/10-11-2018

Video interview of John Authers on the effects of quantitative tightening on the markets, the FANGS – whether or not they will lead the market lower – and where we are in the corrective part of the stock market cycle.

USAGOLD note:  John Authers, the British market commentator, was one of my favorite analysts at the Financial Times for many years. He is now offering his unique and insightful analysis at Bloomberg and this is among his first video interviews.  Worth the time spent. . . . .

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What trade war? China racks up a record $34.13 billion surplus on the USA

CNBC/Huileng Tan/10-11-2018

“China recorded a record trade surplus of $34.13 billion with the U.S. in September amid intense trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.”

USAGOLD note:  The Trump administration is not likely to be thrilled with this report. As noted below, the larger tariff scheme just went into effect late September with the remainder scheduled to go into effect January, 2019, so these are pre-tariff numbers.  Unless China finds some way to absorb the tariffs without raising its prices, the surplus is likely to shrink.

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Trade war threatens Walmart’s low prices

Mises Institute/Andrew Moran/10-10-2018

“As the largest retailer in the United States and a major buyer of U.S. manufactured goods, we are very concerned about the impacts these tariffs would have on our business, our customers, our suppliers and the U.S. economy as a whole. Should the tariffs go into effect, Walmart customers will face cost increases for essential items like car seats, cribs, backpacks, hats, pet products and bicycles. Either consumers will pay more, suppliers will receive less, retail margins will be lower, or consumers will buy fewer products or forego purchases altogether.”

USAGOLD note:  The above is an extract from a letter Walmart sent U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. It speaks to the connection between rising tariffs on Chinese imports and rising consumer prices in the United States – a probability we emphasized early-on in the trade dispute. Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index release showed little or no effect at this juncture, but part of the larger tariff scheme just went into effect late September with the remainder scheduled to go into effect January, 2019.  It will take time for those increases to show-up in consumer prices.


Image by Walmart Corporate [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons [Edited]

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Gold finishes up $30 on the day on safe-haven buying, possible short covering

AFTERNOON UPDATE

Gold finished the day up a solid $30 and well over the $1200 mark at $1224.50.  Silver finished 27¢ higher at $14.60.  The mainstream financial media was in a huff all day on who to blame for the stock market plunge – the White House or the Fed.  The markets though, with all due respect, do not care who’s to blame.  It is the effect that has investors worried, not the cause.

This is the first time in 2018, a cursory review tells us, that gold has gone up when the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone down more than 1000 points – a break with recent trends that speaks to a possible resurgence of gold’s safe haven status.  Too, we should not overlook the possible role of short-covering in today’s rally.  Speculators have built-up a record short volume on the COMEX and will need to reverse those positions in order to lock-in profits. As an early indicator that sentiment might be shifting among funds and institutions, gold ETFs yesterday recorded net purchases of eight tonnes – “the first daily inflow since July” according to Commerzbank.

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IMF readies for further danger signals in emerging markets

Financial Times/James Politi and Stefania Palma/10-11-2018

“Fears grow that more countries will require loans as currency and debt woes pile up . . .”

USAGOLD note:  How many bailouts can the IMF handle?  The problem is deep, but how deep are the IMF’s pockets??

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Update later

FYI – We will post a DMR update later this afternoon.  Please check back.

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That isn’t how it works

“Simple, compelling language describing cause and effect is both comforting and reassuring. The alternative to this soothing narrative is an unimaginable world of random disconcerting events. This stands in stark contrast to how we prefer to see the world around us: orderly, predictable, subject to expert management and prediction. Sorry, to say, but that isn’t how it works.” – Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg, 10-11-2018

Dr. Moneywise says. . . . . .It is precisely because of the ‘random disconcerting events’ of life, economy and markets that shrewd investors are always on the lookout and why they include gold and silver in their portfolio plan.   Barry Ritholtz, I might add, is the author of the book, Bailout Nation. We recommend a visit to the article linked for more of Mr. Ritholtz’ deep-thinking.

 

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Ron Paul: US is barreling towards a stock market drop of 50% or more, and there’s no way to prevent it

CNBC/Stephanie Landsman/10-7-2018

“‘It can be pretty well validated by looking at monetary history that when you inflate the currency, distort interest rates and live beyond your means and spend too much, there has to be an adjustment,’ he said. ‘We have the biggest bubble in the history of mankind.'”

USAGOLD note:  I can still remember the first time I listened to a Ron Paul analysis.  As a young Congressman from Texas, he would speak to the issues of the day – mostly economic – on an automated hot line. There he spoke to views the mainstream media and other politicians largely ignored – the deficit, the value of the dollar, Fed policy, etc. I have always admired his ability to explain complicated subject matter in a way just about anyone can understand. He has been steadfast in his views and a staunch advocate of gold and silver ownership for a lot of years.

Repost from 10/8/2018


Image by madwurmmadwurm (Image:Ron paul blimp.jpgFlickr) [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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USAGOLD – Quality service and pricing since 1973

USAGOLD ranks among the most reputable gold companies in the United States with several thousand clients and multi-millions in annual revenue. Founded in the 1970s and still family-owned, we are one of the oldest and most respected names in the gold industry. Our unblemished, zero-complaints record and solid reviews with the Better Business Bureau testify to the exceptional customer service and professional excellence which sets us apart from the competition.

USAGOLD specializes in gold and silver coins and bullion delivered to our client’s safekeeping. For over 45 years, we have resolutely advocated owning precious metals for asset preservation purposes rather than speculation. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold and silver owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find our firm a kindred spirit.

When it comes time to pursue your first (or next) purchase, we invite you to learn first-hand why so many have chosen USAGOLD as their precious metals firm.

Call or drop us an e-mail.

1-800-869-5115
Ext#100
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To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.
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DMR–Gold moves convincingly to the upside in wake of global stock turmoil

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Having steadied itself the past few trading sessions, gold moved convincingly to the upside in the wake of yesterday’s global stock market turmoil.  It is up $14 in the early going at $1208.50.  Silver is up 15¢ at $14.47.  The fact that gold broke ranks with other investment markets at a time of crisis is notable.  In the recent past, its reaction to major disruptions has been to follow along with the crowd in the first stages – at least until the nature of the crisis took form.  Capital this time around is moving in the direction of gold on short notice.

A significant portion of today’s upside occurred during Asian and European trading hours, but there was an additional surge higher (about $6) coming at New York’s open. “It was the perfect storm that gave U.S. stocks their worst day in eight months,” reports Bloomberg’s Justina Lee, sending European shares to the lowest since December 2016 and driving more than 1,000 Chinese companies to fall by the daily limit.”

We have reported on the “perfect storm” brewing in the global economy consistently over the past several months including the items mentioned in this Bloomberg report – interest rates, the trade war, the crisis among emerging countries, etc.  What is particularly alarming about the current market situation is the widespread unleashing of primal forces all at the same time each fed by and contingent on the other – a pandora’s box that defies simple solution.  Even if the current sell-off is contained over the next few days, we are likely to be left with a sense that it isn’t over, that there is more to come.

Quote of the Day
“A common feature of all these earlier troubles was that, having happened, they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a record 12,894,650 shares sold on 24 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash: 1929

Chart[s] of the Day

Chart note:  Gold’s strong performance this morning after the stock market dropped almost 5% yesterday is notable because it breaks with the recent past and demonstrates, if the trend gains momentum, a resurgence of the safe-haven trade. (See the full DMR above for details.)

 

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A $1 trillion powder keg threatens the corporate bond market

Bloomberg/Molly Smith and Christopher Cannon/10-11-2018

“The worry now is that, with so many of those BBB ratings dependent on the ability of companies to deliver on their debt-cutting promises, any hiccup in the economy or exodus of investor cash will lead to a surge of downgrades to junk. That could lift companies’ borrowing costs substantially, adding new strains to those companies. And if it were to happen en masse, it could overwhelm the $1.3 trillion U.S. speculative-grade debt market and potentially cause the weakest borrowers to lose access to capital.”

USAGOLD note:  Is the corporate bond market the next sub-prime crisis? As if the markets needs something else to worry about. . . . This article is highly recommended for those who like to stay ahead of the curve.

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Trump doubles down on Fed attacks, saying it’s ‘going loco’

CNBC/Christina Wilkie and Everett Rosenfeld/10-10-2018

“The problem I have is with the Fed. The Fed is going wild. I mean, I don’t know what their problem is that they are raising interest rates and it’s ridiculous,” Trump said during a telephone interview with Fox host Shannon Bream. “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

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