Category: Markets

Gold higher at 1288.16 (+4.27). Silver 17.05 (+0.071). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called easier. U.S. 10-year 2.18% (-1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1296.00 (+6.98). Silver 17.20 (+0.146). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.18% (unch).

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Posted in Markets |

A Gary Cohn resignation would ‘crash the markets,’ management guru Jeffrey Sonnenfeld says

CNBC/Berkeley Lovelace Jr./08-17-17

The markets would crash if top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn resigns, Yale School of Management’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld told CNBC on Thursday.

“I don’t want to be an alarmist, but there is a lot of faith that he is going to help carry through the tax reform that people are looking for,” Sonnenfeld said on “Squawk Box.”

“I think if he steps away, it would crash the markets,” he said.

PG View: Risk appetite has been diminished on yet another layer of political uncertainty, which is weighing on stocks and providing a tailwind for gold.

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Posted in Markets, Politics |

Gold better at 1285.57 (+2.40). Silver 17.08 (-0.044). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.24% (+2 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold steady at 1272.59 (-0.69). Silver 16.76 (+0.058). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called mixed. U.S. 10-year 2.27% (unch).

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Posted in Markets |

Political ‘Angst’ Turns Fund Managers Against U.K., U.S. Stocks

Bloomberg/Cecile Gutscher/08-15-17

“Anglo-Saxon political angst” is spurring a shift in investment from U.S. and British equities to Europe, according to the latest survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The most important market news of the day.

Money managers of $587 billion polled from Aug. 4 to 10 cut allocations to the two nations to a post-financial crisis low, while boosting positions in European shares. They cite the risk of policy blunders by major central banks as their foremost concerns, followed by a bond crash and escalating tensions with North Korea.

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Posted in Economy, Markets |

Gold lower at 1273.85 (-5.72). Silver 16.83 (-0.18). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.25% (+4 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold lower at 1282.76 (-6.12). Silver 17.03 (-0.082). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.22% (+3 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

VIX’s Highest Close Since Election Sparks Record Rush to Protect

Bloomberg/Elena Popina/08-10-17

The biggest selloff in U.S. equities since May sparked an unprecedented rush for protection in the options market.

About 2.6 million puts and calls tied to the CBOE Volatility Index changed hands on Thursday, the most on record, as the VIX spiked 44 percent to close at the highest level since Nov. 8. About 3.4 call volatility options – a bearish equities trade – have changed hands for every put contract.

The scramble to hedge against further losses came as President Donald Trump ratcheted up his saber rattling against North Korea, warning that his threat to deliver “fire and fury” might not have been tough enough.

The S&P 500 Index sank 1.5 percent, shattering an unprecedented calm in equity markets, while Treasuries rallied with gold and the yen as investors sought haven assets.

PG View: When it comes to real protection, consider some gold rather than an option on an index that measures market volatility.

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1291.26 (+4.45). Silver 17.17 (+0.011). Dollar steady. Euro higher. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.19% (-1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1283.48 (+6.92). Silver 17.18 (+0.273). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.23% (-2 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

There’s a ‘supervolcano’ waiting to erupt beneath a seemingly ‘beautiful’ market, according to a portfolio manager

CNBC/Annie Pei/08-06-17

Warning: A correction in the market is “inevitable” and there are three key factors that could spark chaos on Wall Street, according to James Advantage Fund president Barry James.

The investor likened the market to Yellowstone National Park’s famous supervolcano, which many believe is close to eruption. Stocks continued to hit record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting its 8th consecutive all-time high.

“Even though [the market] looks beautiful—setting new highs, good momentum, and earnings have been coming in strong, [there are] things to worry about,” explained the portfolio manager recently on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1273.49 (+11.32). Silver 16.79 (+0.264). Dollar steady. Euro lower. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.22% (-4 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1264.16 (+6.39). Silver 16.42 (+0.148). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.25% (unch).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold easier at 1257.21 (-1.60). Silver 16.21 (-0.084). Dollar steady. Euro better. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.27% (+1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold firm at 1268.36 (-1.08). Silver 16.76 (+0.044). Dollar better. Euro lower. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.25% (+3 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Why Investors Shouldn’t Trust Low Volatility

Bloomberg/Peter Coy/08-03-17

…[A]s the late economist Hyman Minsky observed, stability creates its own instability. People get overconfident in their investing savvy and overpay. Professional investors who thrive on volatility find it harder to make a living when markets are calm, so they invest with borrowed money to amplify their meager returns. That makes them as vulnerable to a price decline as any indebted homeowner; margin debt has grown as rapidly as stock prices since the 2009 market nadir.

The VIX, a gauge of expected stock market volatility, finished below 10 on only 26 trading days from 1990 through Aug. 2, 2017, and 17 of those placid days occurred since the start of May. The persistence of extreme calm may have pushed investors toward strategies that could blow up if volatility returns. “It’s not that volatility is low. It’s how long it’s been low,” says Ramon Verastegui, a managing director at Société Générale SA in New York. The bottom line is that highflying stock markets in the U.S. and other countries are more vulnerable to a big selloff than one would think from looking at the VIX alone.

PG View: Don’t be complacent!

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1267.16 (+3.83). Silver 16.63 (+0.078). Dollar weak. Euro better. Stocks called mixed. U.S. 10-year 2.24% (-3 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold firm at 1267.40 (-0.25). Silver 16.72 (+0.026). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.27% (+2 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold flat at 1266.72 (-0.94). Silver 16.70 (-0.095). Dollar higher. Euro easier. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.30% (+1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold easier at 1267.94 (-1.00). Silver 16.88 (+0.132). Dollar better. Euro lower. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.29% (+1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1265.72 (+5.34). Silver +16.74 (+0.137). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.32% (+1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Market hype triggers ‘new major warning’ sign for stocks

CNBC/Jeff Cox/07-26-17

With a fresh round of record-breaking highs in the stock market has come a surge in investor optimism, and that eventually could create problems.

Bullishness in the most recent Investors Intelligence survey hit 60.2 percent, the highest level since late February. The survey comes from editors of market newsletters and thus provides a snapshot of what professional investors are thinking.

Elevated levels of optimism often coincide with market dips. The last time the II survey hit this level, the S&P 500 proceeded to fall nearly 3 percent.

John Gray, editor at II, cautions that the big spread between bulls and bears, who are at just 16.5 percent, is an indicator of potential danger ahead.

PG View
: Stocks are looking awful frothy, rising on both good news and bad…

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1263.68 (+3.18). Silver 16.81 (+0.187). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.30% (+1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold steady at 1247.34 (+0.40). Silver 16.44 (+0.031). Dollar and euro flat. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.32% (-2 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold steady at 1253.46 (-0.34). Silver 16.46 (-0.016). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.28% (+2 bps).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold better at 1257.43 (+2.52). Silver 16.58 (+0.087). Dollar weak. Euro easier. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.24% (+1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold higher at 1250.00 (+5.95). Silver 16.48 (+0.157). Dollar lower. Euro firm. Stocks called lower. U.S. 10-year 2.25% (-1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

Gold lower at 1237.54 (-3.97). Silver 16.22 (-0.07). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called better. U.S. 10-year 2.26% (-1 bp).

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Posted in Markets |

A $30 billion hedge fund identified a potential trigger for ‘the next financial crisis’

BusinessInsider/Rachael Levy/07-18-17

Baupost Group, a $30 billion hedge fund, has laid out a road map for market chaos.

In a second quarterly private letter that was reviewed by Business Insider, Baupost said that the problem lies with a signature feature of current markets: low volatility.

That low volatility could be the harbinger of a crisis to come.

That’s because when there is low volatility, investors tend to take on more leverage – borrowing money to juice bets – which could trigger problems later on.

“While leverage is not directly responsible for every financial disaster, it usually can be found near the scene of the crime,” Jim Mooney, Baupost’s president and head of public investments, wrote in the letter. “The lower the volatility, the more risk investors are willing to or, in some cases, required to incur.”

He added: “Structural leverage linked to low realized volatility may well prove destabilizing and the precipitant, or at least an accelerant for the next financial crisis.”

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Posted in Markets |