Category Archives: investments

Growth outside QE required to curb distortions in asset prices

Regression
03-May (Financial Times) —We are all bond investors at the moment, and that is not ideal. As the calendar flipped into May this week, the S&P 500 notched up six straight months of gains, its best run since September 2009, and on Friday crowned it by surging beyond 1,600 for the first time.

Heady stuff for equity investors, but it’s a rally that defies the usual characteristics of a bull run, with leadership coming from quality defensive stocks that look like bonds. One only has to look at the performance of Johnson & Johnson, up more than 22 per cent this year, and well in front of the S&P 500’s 13 per cent rise, to see how investors are betting on quality companies that boost their dividends.

Some even term this the ‘SHUT’ rally, as companies in the Staples, Healthcare, Utilities and Telecom sectors have led from the front and remain in favour in spite of trading at lofty valuations, which should raise alarm.

[source]

PG View: While the DJIA ends the week near 15,000 and the S&P closed above 1600, a degree of caution is warranted. As investors celebrate these new highs in the stock market, it might be time to actually start bolstering your hedges. Think gold…

Posted in investments |

The Libor Scandal In Full Perspective

by Paul Craig Roberts
19-Jul (Institute for Political Economy) — The article about the Libor scandal, coauthored with Nomi Prins, received much attention, with Internet repostings, foreign translation, and video interviews. To further clarify the situation, this article brings to the forefront implications that might not be obvious to those without insider experience and knowledge.

The price of Treasury bonds is supported by the Federal Reserve’s large purchases. The Federal Reserve’s purchases are often misread as demand arising from a “flight to quality” due to concern about the EU sovereign debt problem and possible failure of the euro.

…The lower is Libor, the higher is the price or evaluations of floating-rate debt instruments, such as CDOs, and thus the stronger the banks’ balance sheets appear.

Does this mean that the US and UK financial systems can only be kept afloat by fraud that harms purchasers of interest rate swaps, which include municipalities advised by sellers of interest rate swaps, and those with saving accounts?

The answer is yes, but the Libor scandal is only a small part of the interest rate rigging scandal. The Federal Reserve itself has been rigging interest rates. How else could debt issued in profusion be bearing negative interest rates?

…How long can the regime of negative interest rates continue while debt explodes upward? Currently, everyone in the US who counts and most who don’t have an interest in holding off armageddon. No one wants to tip over the boat. If the banks are sued for damages and lack the money to pay, the Federal Reserve can create the money for the banks to pay.

…To sum up, what has happened is that irresponsible and thoughtless–in fact, ideological–deregulation of the financial sector has caused a financial crisis that can only be managed by fraud. Civil damages might be paid, but to halt the fraud itself would mean the collapse of the financial system. Those in charge of the system would prefer the collapse to come from outside, such as from a collapse in the value of the dollar that could be blamed on foreigners, because an outside cause gives them something to blame other than themselves.

[source]

PG View: An excellent article that illustrates just how far beyond the Libor scandal the “fraud” seems to extend. Discussions about the manipulation of global financial markets are no longer relegated to just the tin-hat crowd, and Roberts calls the Fed’s zero interest rate policy what it is: “Rigging interest rates”, which is fundamentally little different from what Barclays and the other setters of Libor where engaged in.

Perhaps now is a good opportunity to take a portion of your assets outside of the traditional financial markets, which are increasingly acknowledged as being “rigged.”

Posted in Economy, Gold News, Politics, U.S. Dollar, investments |

The Alternative Portfolio: Diversifying Away From a Traditional Allocation


June 2012 (AAII) — “How can I construct a portfolio that is capable of producing returns different than those of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries and that is also capable of warding off the threat of inflation?” This is what many AAII members have asked me for.

The good news is that I was able to create such a portfolio. In fact, over the time period tested, its performance topped that of a traditional large-cap/long-term bond portfolio. The portfolio can be replicated using exchange-traded funds. Unfortunately, this alternative portfolio is more volatile than a traditional portfolio comprised of large-cap stocks and long-term bonds. Furthermore, the time period used to test the portfolio may not be long enough to show whether its performance advantage will last well into the future.

…So, I started with a bit of brainstorming to figure out what assets would make sense. On the equity side, I chose master limited partnerships (MLPs), real estate investment trusts (REITs) and micro-cap stocks. On the bond and income side, I chose Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), high-yield corporate bonds and preferred stocks. Finally, I selected gold to provide exposure to commodities via a physical asset.

Physical gold avoids the transaction costs and use of leverage involved with investing in futures contracts or funds that invest in futures contracts. It can also provide a hedge against the deterioration of a currency’s purchasing power.

Gold produced the highest returns over the period studied, while preferred stocks produced the lowest return.

[source]

PG View: I post this because I took a bit of a swipe at the AAII in a recent article I wrote, for declaring in a recent article on their site that “the three most important asset classes for individuals are stocks, bonds and cash.” I’m encouraged to read that the AAII does indeed appreciate what gold can bring to a diversified portfolio.

Posted in Gold News, Gold Views, investments |

JPMorgan Trading Loss May Reach $9 Billion

28-Jun (The New York Times) — Losses on JPMorgan Chase’s bungled trade could total as much as $9 billion, far exceeding earlier public estimates, according to people who have been briefed on the situation.

When Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, announced in May that the bank had lost $2 billion in a bet on credit derivatives, he estimated that losses could double within the next few quarters. But the red ink has been mounting in recent weeks, as the bank has been unwinding its positions, according to interviews with current and former traders and executives at the bank who asked not to be named because of investigations into the bank.

…As JPMorgan has moved rapidly to unwind the position — its most volatile assets in particular — internal models at the bank have recently projected losses of as much as $9 billion. In April, the bank generated an internal report that showed that the losses, assuming worst-case conditions, could reach $8 billion to $9 billion, according to a person who reviewed the report.

[source]

PG View: Yeah…nice “hedge.”

Posted in investments |

China’s Middle Class Projected to Grow 146% by 2020

15-Jun (USAGOLD) — An article in The Wall Street Journal this week highlighted an expected dramatic rise in the size of China’s middle class. Over the next 8-years, the middle class is projected to grow by 146% to 607 million.

“The potential buying power of China’s middle class is vast. About 247 million Chinese, 18.2% of the population, qualify as middle class, meaning their households spend between $10 and $100 a day on average, according to Brookings Institution economist Homi Kharas.

If current patterns continue, the number will soar to 607 million by 2020, and spending by China’s middle class will rival that of the U.S., after adjusting for inflation and purchasing power.”

When you consider that China has a very gold-centric culture, the implications for the yellow metal are staggering.

On top of that, according to the US State Department the middle class of another gold-centric nation, India, is expected to “grow tenfold by 2025″.

Perhaps, “staggering” is too tepid an adjective…

Posted in Economy, Gold News, Gold Views, investments |