Category: Economic Data

Why this ‘disappointing’ jobs report will soon look good

CNBC/Mark Zandi/01-05-18

While the disappointing job gain during the month is likely a statistical fluke and will eventually be revised higher, it does highlight an important point. Namely that after the temporary boost from the deficit-financed tax cuts fade later this year, job growth is destined to slow sharply.

With no more unemployed or underemployed to hire, fewer immigrants coming into the country to work, and the boomers retiring, job growth will significantly throttle back. By early in the next decade, months in which job growth comes anywhere near December’s 148,000 gain will be the fluke.

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Posted in Economic Data, Economy |

U.S. trade deficit widened to -$50.5 bln in Nov, outside expectations of -$49.1 bln, vs -$48.9 bln in Oct. This widening occurred despite a weakening dollar.

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Posted in Debt, Economic Data |

U.S. services ISM fell to 55.9 in Dec, below expectations of 57.6, vs 57.4 in Nov.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. factory orders +1.3% in Nov, above expectations of1.2%, vs positive revised +0.4% in Oct. Ex-trans +0.8%.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. job growth slows in December; wages increase

Reuters/Lucia Mutikani/01-05-18

U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in December amid a decline in retail employment, but a pick-up in monthly wage gains pointed to labor market strength that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in March.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 148,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday.

…Average hourly earnings rose 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, in December after gaining 0.1 percent in the prior month. That lifted the annual increase in wages to 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent in November. The unemployment rate was unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

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Posted in Economic Data, Economy |

U.S. nonfarm payrolls +148k in Dec, below expectations of +190k and well below the whisper of +225k, vs positive revised 252k in Nov. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. initial jobless claims +3k to 250k in the week ended 30-Dec, above expectations of 239k.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. ADP jobs survey +250k in Dec, above expectations of +185k, vs negative revised +185k in Nov.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. construction spending +0.8% in Nov, above expectations of +0.7%, vs negative revised +0.9% in Oct (was +1.4%).

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 59.7 in Dec, above expectations of 58.2, vs 58.2 Nov. Prices jump to 69.0, vs 65.5 in Nov.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. Q3 GDP revised down to 3.2%, below expectations of 3.3%, vs 3.3% previously and 3.1% in Q2.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. Philly Fed index surged to 26.2 in Dec, well above expectations of 20.5, vs 22.7 in Nov.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. initial jobless claims +20k to 245k in the week ended 16-Dec, above expectations of 232k.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. existing home sales +5.6% to 5.81M pace in Nov, above expectations of 5.50M, vs positive revised 5.50M in Oct.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. housing starts +3.3% to 1.297M pace in Nov, above expectations of 1.250M, vs 1.256 man in Oct.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. Q3 current account gap narrowed to -$100.6 bln, inside expectations of -$116.8 bln, vs revised -$124.4 bln in Q2.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. industrial production +0.2% in Nov, below expectations of +0.3%, vs positive revised +1.2% in Oct; cap use ticked up to 77.1%.

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Posted in Economic Data |

NY Empire State index slipped to 18.0 in Dec, in line with expectations, vs 19.4 in Nov.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. import prices +0.7% in Nov, in line with expectations, vs +0.1% in Oct. Export prices +0.5% on expectations of +0.3%.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. initial jobless claims -11k to 225k in the week ended 09-Dec, below expectations of 237k.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S retail sales +0.8% in Nov, above expectations of +0.3%, vs +0.2% in Oct. Ex-auto +1.0% on expectations of +0.6%.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. CPI +0.4% in Nov, in line with expectations, vs +0.1% Oct; +2.2% y/y. Core +0.1%, below expectations of +0.2%, vs +0.2% in Oct; +1.7% y/y.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. Treasury budget deficit widened to -$139 bln in Nov, outside expectations of -$135.0 bln, vs -$63.2 bln in Oct and -$137 bln a year-ago.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. PPI +0.4% in Nov, in line with expectations, vs +0.4% in Oct; +3.1% y/y. Core +0.3%, above expectations of +0.2%, vs +0.4% in Oct; +2.4% y/y.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. JOLTS job openings -181k to 5,996k in Oct, below expectations of 6,135k, vs positive revised 6,117k in Sep.

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Posted in Economic Data |

Hourly earnings +0.2% in Nov, below expectations of +0.3%, vs negative revised -0.1% (was unch). Average workweek steady at 34.4 hours.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. nonfarm payrolls +228k in Dec, above expectation s of +198k, vs negative revised +244k in Nov (was +261k). Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, as expected.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. consumer credit +$20.5 bln in Oct, above expectations of +$17.0 bln, vs revised +$19.2 bln in Sep.

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Posted in Economic Data |

North Korea: War is inevitable

The Hill/Mallory Shelbourne/11-07-17

North Korea has reportedly said that a nuclear conflict in the region is unavoidable, accusing CIA Director Mike Pompeo of provocation.

…“We do not wish for a war but shall not hide from it, and should the U.S. miscalculate our patience and light the fuse for a nuclear war, we will surely make the U.S. dearly pay the consequences with our mighty nuclear force which we have consistently strengthened,” the unidentified spokesperson said in remarks originally reported by the Korean Central News Agency.

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Posted in Economic Data, Geopolitical Risks, North Korea |

U.S. initial jobless claims -2k to 236k in the week ended 02-Dec, below expectations of 240k.

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Posted in Economic Data |