Category: Economic Data

University of Michigan sentiment (prelim) jumped to 97.6 in Aug, above expectations of 94.0, vs 93.4 in Jul.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. leading indicators +0.3% in Jul, near in line with expectations, vs +0.6% in Jun.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. industrial production +0.2% in Jul, below expectations of +0.3%, vs +0.4% in Jun; cap use steady at 76.7%.

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Posted in Economic Data |

Philly Fed index fell to 18.9 in Aug, above expectations of 18.0, vs 19.5 in Jul.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. initial jobless claims -12k to 232k in the week ended 12-Aug, below expectations of 240k.

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U.S. housing starts -4.8% to 1.155M in Jul, below expectations of 1.220M, vs negative revised 1.213M in Jun.

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U.S. business inventories +0.5% in Aug, above expectations of +0.4%, vs +0.3% in Jul.

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U.S. NAHB housing market index rose to 68 in Aug, above expectations of 64, vs 64 in Jul.

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U.S. export price index +0.4% in Jul, above expectations of +0.2%, vs -0.2% in Jun. Import prices +0.1%, in line with expectations.

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Empire State Index jumped to 25.2 in Aug, above expectations of 10.1, vs 9.8 in Jul.

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U.S. retail sales +0.6% in in Jul, above expectations of +0.4%, vs positive revised +0.3% in Jun; ex-autos +0.5% on expectations of +0.3%.

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U.S. CPI +0.1% in Jul, below expectations of +0.2%, vs unch in Jun; 1.7% y/y. Core +0.1% on expectations of +0.2%, vs +0.1 in Jun; 1.7% y/y.

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U.S. producer prices record biggest drop in 11 months

Reuters/Lucia Mutikani/08-10-17

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in July, recording their biggest drop in nearly a year and pointing to a further moderation in inflation that could delay a Federal Reserve interest rate increase.

…Though the link between the PPI and the consumer price index has weakened, last month’s drop in producer prices could worry Fed officials who have long argued that the moderation in inflation was temporary.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers last month that “some special factors” were partly responsible for the low inflation readings. Inflation, which has remained below the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target for five years, is being watched for clues on the timing of the next Fed interest rate increase.

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Posted in Deflation, Economic Data, inflation |

U.S. PPI -0.1% in Jul, below expectations of +0.1%, vs +0.1% in Jun; 1.9% y/y. Core -0.1%, below expectations of +0.2%, vs +0.1% in Jun; 1.8% y/y.

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U.S. initial jobless claims +3k to 244k in the week ended 05-Aug, above expectations of 240k.

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U.S. wholesale sales +0.7% in Jun, above expectations of +0.1%, vs positive revised -0.1% in May; inventories +0.7%.

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U.S. Q2 productivity (prelim) +0.9%, above expectations of +0.7%, vs +0.1% in Q1; ULCs +0.6%, below expectations of +1.5%, vs upward revised +5.4% in Q1 (was +2.2%).

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. JOLTS job openings surge to 6.163M in Jun, well above expectations of 5.750M, vs upward revised 5.702M in May.

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The jobs numbers aren’t as good as they look

BusinessInsider/Komal Sri-Kumar/08-07-17

Financial markets reacted positively to Friday’s jobs numbers. 209,000 jobs were created in July, higher than consensus, and the two previous months’ figures were revised upward. The U3 unemployment rate, which most investors are fixated on, fell to 4.3%, matching a 16-year low set in May.

The headlines were sufficient to cause the 10-year US Treasury yield to increase 4 basis points to 2.26%, and for the 2-10 year Treasury spread to rise by 3 basis points. But after you experience the euphoria, look closely below the headlines. There is enough information for the yellow light to flash for investors, the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. trade deficit narrowed to -$43.6 bln in Jun, inside expectations of -$45.5, vs -$46.4 bln in May.

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Posted in Economic Data |

Hourly earnings +0.3% in Jul, in line with expectations. Average workweek steady at 34.5 hours.

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U.S. nonfarm payrolls +209k in Jul, above expectations of +181k, vs positive revised +231k in June; jobless rate ticks down to 4.3%, in line with expectations.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. services ISM index fell to 53.9 in Jul, below expectations of 57.0, vs 57.4 Jun. Prices rose to 55.7.

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U.S. factory orders +3.0% in Jun, above expectations of +2.7%, vs positive revised -0.3% in May.

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U.S. Markit service PMI (final) rose to 54.7 in Jul, above expectations of 54.2, vs 54.2 in Jun.

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U.S. initial jobless claims -5k to 240k in the week ended 29-Jul, in line with expectations.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. ADP employment survey +178k in Jul, below expectations of +182k, vs positive revised +191k in Jun (was +158k).

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U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI ticked up to 53.3 in Jul, on expectations of 53.2, vs 53.2 in Jun.

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U.S. manufacturing ISM fell to 56.3 in Jul, just below expectations of 56.4, vs 57.8 in Jun. Prices jump to 62.0.

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Posted in Economic Data |

U.S. construction spending -1.3% in Jun, well below expectations of +0.4%, vs positive revised +0.3% in May.

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