Category: ECB

Lower than expected inflation sets scene for ECB balancing act

FY/Laura Noonan/09-29-17

Eurozone inflation rose at an annual rate of 1.5 per cent cent in September, missing economists’ forecasts and leaving the ECB with a dilemma as it weighs whether the economy is strong enough for it to roll back its bond-buying programme.

PG View: I’m sure, here too this is transitory. But keep in mind, weak inflation has been “transitory” for nearly two-decades in Japan, despite massive monetary accommodations.

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Posted in Central Banks, ECB, inflation |

Outside the Box Low Inflation Is No “Mystery”

Mauldin Economics/John Mauldin/09-27-17

When is a mystery not a mystery? When Janet Yellen is puzzling over a lack of inflation, that’s when. So say Brian Wesbury, chief economist, and Robert Stein, deputy chief economist of First Trust, in today’s Outside the Box. The bottom line: QE didn’t work, and Janet knew it was unlikely to work, from the start.

…So forgive us for asking, but after unprecedented expansion of banking reserves and the Fed balance sheet, with little inflation, is it really a “mystery?” Or, is it proof of what we believed all along: QE didn’t work?

…instead of boosting Milton Friedman’s key money number (M2), the excess monetary base growth went into “excess reserves” – money the banks hold as deposits, but don’t lend out. Money in the warehouse (or in this case, credits on a computer) doesn’t boost demand! This is why real GDP and inflation (nominal GDP) never accelerated in line with monetary base growth.

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Posted in BoE, BoJ, Central Banks, ECB, Fed, inflation, Monetary Policy, QE |

ECB seen keeping option to prolong bond-buying again in 2018: sources


Reuters/Francesco Canepa & Balazs Koranyi/09-19-17

European Central Bank policymakers disagree on whether to set a definitive end-date for their money-printing program when they meet in October, raising the chance that they will keep open at least the option of prolonging it again, six sources told Reuters.

A stubbornly strong euro, with its dampening effect on inflation, is driving a rift among ECB policymakers, the sources on the ECB’s Governing Council with direct knowledge of its thinking said.

…“The strength of the euro is the number one problem,” one of the sources said.

PG View: Some see euro strength not so much as evidence that the European economy is on firmer ground, but more that the U.S. and UK economies are weakening.

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Posted in Central Banks, ECB |

ECB steady on policy, remains prepared to extend QE if necessary. Inflation forecast trimmed for 2018 and 2019 on strong EUR. Draghi presser underway.

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Posted in Central Banks, ECB, Monetary Policy, QE |