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Category: Silver Price
Gold lower at 1317.52 (-3.75). Silver 17.17 (-0.02). Dollar higher. Euro lower. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.46% (+1 bp).
Gold higher at 1314.77 (+3.51). Silver 17.18 (+0.04). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.47% (+2 bps).
Gold is down modestly this morning, weighed by a bit of corrective bounce in the beleaguered dollar. However, the solid gains into year-end 2017 and yesterday’s follow-through to fresh 3½-month highs continues to bode well for the dominant uptrend.
With more than 61.8% of the entire decline off the September high at 1357.50 retraced, that peak is looking increasingly attractive from a technical standpoint. The move back above the 100-day moving average last week gives further credence to the uptrend.
The U.S. economic calendar has December manufacturing ISM, November construction spending and December auto sales. The minutes of the December FOMC meeting will also be released. Friday is the December jobs report. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls is +185k. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
Silver remains well bid above $17. The white metal remains attractively undervalued, but the consolidation band at 17.38/47 likely needs to be cleared to put silver in catch-up mode. Such a move would shift focus to 18.00/18.21 initially, but potential would be toward $20 and beyond. See Mike’s Gold, Silver Predictions 2018.
Gold lower at 1316.19 (-4.31). Silver 17.16 (-0.04). Dollar higher. Euro lower. #Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.45% (-2 bps).
Gold is up in early New York trading, reaching levels last seen in mid-September. The yellow metal is being buoyed by heightened geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar.
Gold ended 2017 up more than 13%, driven largely by these two factors. U.S. political uncertainty was another driving force. The dollar index posted a 9.4% loss in 2017, its biggest annual decline since 2003.
Mounting political unrest in Iran has sparked additional haven interest in gold. The rise in oil prices to a 2½-year high above $60 is also stoking inflation concerns.
The technical picture improved significantly in the final week of 2017. The yellow metal is now trading comfortably above the 20-/50-/100- and 200-day moving average complex, which has returned considerable confidence to the underlying uptrend that dominated last year. This morning, the 61.8% retracement level of the decline off the early-September high at 1357.50 was exceeded.
Silver has eked out a 5-week high, returning to the consolidative range that dominated trading in October/November last year. Focus is now on resistance at 17.38/46.
Gold higher at 1313.49 (+6.51). Silver 17.12 (+0.11). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.43% (+2 bps).
Gold easier at 1264.20 (-2.76). Silver 16.13 (-0.07). Dollar better. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.49% (-1 bp).
Gold better at 1265.20 (+3.14). Silver 16.22 (+0.06). Dollar and euro steady. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.49% (+2 bps).
Gold better at 1262.36 (+0.70). Silver 16.17 (+0.03). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called mixed. U.S. 10-year 2.42% (+3 bps).
Gold is up in early U.S. trading, buoyed by a weaker dollar. The rise in the yellow metal comes despite continued gains in shares and firmer yields, as cyclical forces seem to have taken hold.
The stock market is eagerly anticipating final passage of the GOP tax bill early this week, despite swirling doubts about the positive economic impact of the legislation and a certainty that the debt level is going to rise. Congress also needs to pass a budget agreement and address the debt ceiling this week, or face a partial government shutdown.
While the tax bill can get passed without any support from Democrats, the budget/debt ceiling agreement is going to require at least a little bipartisanship. The more likely scenario is that they kick-the-can yet again with another short-term deal.
Silver is back above $16, but remains comparatively soft. However, there is a growing recognition that silver is quite undervalued relative to gold. Kitco reported late last week that “both TD Securities and Bank of Montreal came out and said that they see silver prices pushing to $20 an ounce next year.”
Gold higher at 1259.57 (+4.51). Silver 16.10 (+0.05). Dollar lower. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.37% (+2 bps).
Gold higher at 1261.31 (+7.56). Silver 16.09 (+0.16). Dollar easier. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.35% (unch).
Gold higher at 1257.51 (+3.21) Silver 16.04 (+0.02). Dollar lower. Euro steady. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.36% (+2 bps).
Gold better at 1245.42 (+1.71). Silver 15.76 (+0.02). Dollar steady. Euro higher. Stocks called higher. U.S. 10-year 2.38% (-2 bps).
Gold steady at 1242.72 (-0.28). Silver 15.75 (unch). Dollar and euro steady. Stocks called mixed. U.S. 10-year 2.40% (+1 bp).
Gold is trading near unchanged in early New York trading after overseas uptick faded. The yellow metal remains defensive near the 4-month plus lows that were set last week as markets await the Fed decision on Wednesday this week, with a softer dollar offering some support.
The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps, despite persistently soft earnings and inflation. Fed funds futures continue to put the probability of a hike in excess of 90%.
Today’s calendar is light with JOLTS job openings for October and 3- and 10-year auctions. November PPI and CPI come out on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Headline numbers are expected to edge higher, while core readings are likely to remain sluggish.
Silver is down modestly and remains on the ropes below $16 after posting a third consecutive weekly decline. With the gold/silver ratio elevated above 79, silver is arguably quite undervalued. A move back above $16 would ease short-term pressure on the downside.
Gold steady at 1249.00 (+0.70). Silver 15.81 (-0.05). Dollar easier. Euro higher. Stocks called mixed. U.S. 10-year 2.36% (-2 bps).
Gold remains defensive at the low-end of yesterday’s range. The yellow metal continues to be weighed by a firmer dollar and heightened risk appetite.
The greenback has risen more than 1% this week on expectations that the Fed will come off “pause” next week and hike the Fed funds rate by 25 bps. The current ‘risk-on’ environment is keeping focus on stocks and bitcoin.
Today’s better than expected nonfarm payrolls number lends credence to the anticipated rate hike. However, there continues to be reason for concern in the earnings data.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 228k in November, above expectations of +198k, versus a negative revised +244k in October (was +261k). The unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, as expected.
Hourly earnings rose 0.2%, below expectations of +0.3%, versus a negative revised -0.1% (was unch) in October. That does not bode well for an imminent end to this allegedly “transitory” period of low inflation.
Congress passed a stopgap spending measure late yesterday, which will keep the government funded for an additional two-weeks until December 22. A kick of the can, albeit a short one.
Silver remains defensive below $16, but is trading slightly higher this morning. The gold/silver ratio reached a high of 79.53 yesterday, suggesting that silver is very undervalued relative to gold. A rebound above $16 is needed to ease short-term pressure on the downside.