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Category: Silver News
Gold and Silver extend lower post-Fed with door for June hike still open, despite “transitory” Q1 weakness.
Gold is edged to a new 3-week low ahead of today’s Fed policy statement. That announcement comes at 2:00ET and while no change in actual policy is anticipated, the market will be looking for clues as to the Fed’s intentions for the next meeting in June.
Silver has extended to the downside, convincingly negating support at 16.80. That puts silver at a 14-week low and the gold/silver ratio has probed above 75; nearly a 1-year high. These losses seem to be a result of the unwinding of the reflation trade as the Trump agenda seemingly has stalled.
The ADP employment survey for April came in at +177k, below expectations of +185k, versus a negative revised +255k in March (was +263k). April nonfarm payrolls is out on Friday, with median expectations running at +188k. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.6%.
Markit services PMI and services ISM are out later this morning. EIA data for last week are out as well, which may add to oil’s woes.
Gold extends to the upside after Trump comments knock dollar lower. Silver pressures 18.48 Feb high.
Gold back within striking distance of Friday’s high for the year at 1270.94 on haven interest. Silver comfortably back above $18.
Matterhorn Asset Management’s Egon von Greyerz reckons prices for gold and silver are bargains and investors should be looking to buy given the risks in the global financial system.
In a new commentary, he’s taken a deeper look at the consequences of rising U.S. budget deficits, the growth in debt and the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar when measured against gold and currencies like the Swiss franc.
USAGOLD/Peter A. Grant/04-04-17
Gold is back within striking distance of key resistance at 1261.01/1263.87, where the highs for the year correspond closely with the 200-day moving average. Silver too is pressuring the high for the year set in February at 18.48.
Risk aversion seems to be driving the latest gains, with the dollar firm as well. U.S. stocks are called lower.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in February. Later this morning we’ll see Feb factory orders. ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt and we’ll hear Fedspeak from Governor Tarullo.
The RBA left its cash rate steady at 1.50%, as was widely expected. However, the statement implied that the RBA would like to keep the A$ weak.
Does that make Australia a currency manipulator?
USAGOLD/Peter A. Grant/03-01-17
Gold was under modest pressure to begin the U.S. session, weighed by a higher dollar and stock market. However, the pullback could not be sustained and the yellow metal quickly rebounded to trade higher on the day and more than $10 off the intraday low.
Stocks were encouraged by President Trump’s address to Congress yesterday; where he highlighted his plans to lower corporate taxes, deregulate and spend $1 trillion on infrastructure. While light on the details of how all this will be accomplished, stocks love that kind of talk.
The dollar took it’s cues from hawkish FedSpeak heard late on Tuesday, which upped the odds for a March rate hike and three hikes in total this year. San Fransisco Fed President Williams said he doesn’t “see any need to delay” raising rates further. Meanwhile, even NY Fed dove Dudley thinks the case for tighter policy “has become a lot more compelling” since the election of Donald Trump.Watch movie online The Transporter Refueled (2015)
The dollar index jumped to a seven week high as yields on U.S. Treasuries rebounded. However, the yellow metal continues to show good resilience in the face of this market action, likely on rising inflation expectations.
U.S. data were mixed again today: Personal income and manufacturing ISM came in better than expected. However, PCE and construction spending disappointed.
Silver is looking particularly good, keeping the pressure on 18.50. More than 50% of the entire decline from last summer’s high at 21.13 to the December low at 15.60 has already been retraced. With the 50-day moving average poised to cross above the 100-day and the 20-day MA attempting to cross the 200-day, we could see the dominant uptrend really validated.
Gold typically has an inverse relationship with the stock market but I believe this will change under Trump. I think that gold and quality stocks have a strong chance of both hitting new highs in due course.
Gold will go from being a “safe harbor” asset (financial/economic crisis) to an inflation hedge (too much spending/stimulus). As Trump spurs economic growth, this can ease some of the prior issues with potential crisis and replace the issue with expansive spending and trade competition, which can mean a weaker dollar and rising inflation. With rising inflation and economic growth, stocks and gold would have a bullish environment while it would become a bearish environment for the dollar.
…I believe that it will be a great year for precious metals. For reasons cited, I expect gold to go north of $1,300 later this year and I believe that silver should hit $25 before year-end. Because silver is experiencing another supply/demand deficit year, it has an outside chance of surpassing $40 in 2018.
While gold is languishing near unchanged on the day after this morning’s data misses, silver is up more than 30¢ (nearly 2%).
Market jitters sent precious metals soaring, with silver futures briefly touching their highest level since the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates on December 14.
The March contract for silver rose 23 cents, or 1.4%, to $17.00 a troy ounce at 7:49 am ET. It had reached an earlier high of $17.13 a troy ounce.
03-Jan (USAGOLD) — This morning’s sharp gains in oil have reversed course and crude is now sharpy lower on the day. Yields, stocks and the dollar have all backed off their earlier highs. Gold which held relatively steady in the face of those earlier gains is now on the rise, led by silver.
“Gold hit a two-week high on Friday on a weaker dollar and was set to close 2016 more than 9 percent higher, snapping three years of declines.
…Silver, up 0.2 percent at $16.18, was on track to end the year 17 percent higher.”
PG View: Late-year pullback not withstanding, it was still a pretty good year for the precious metals. Meanwhile, gains in the three major U.S. stock indexes will range “between 8% and 14%” according to CNNMoney.
“There is only one way to handle an event that is certain to occur, but at a time that can’t be pinpointed – by preparing for the certainty beforehand. JPMorgan’s downward manipulation of the silver price in order to accumulate the largest hoard of silver in history further assures the outcome. The whole manipulation is somewhat complex (until fully vetted), but the preparation for it is as simple as it gets – buy and hold silver, about as hard as falling off a log.”
PG View: JPMorgan holds more than half a billion ounces of physical silver and is still in accumulation mode. When they feel they have enough and lift their short positions in the futures market the price of silver will likely soar dramatically. It might be worth being along for that ride.
Gold has caught a bit of a bid, pressuring the high for the week that occurred on Monday, right after the Italian referendum defeat. Silver jumps to 3-week highs, reclaiming 17 handle.
02-Dec (Quartz) — Indians’ famous love for gold has created serious and ongoing economic issues for the nation. In 2011, Australian investment bank Macquarie estimated that 78% of India’s household savings were held in gold.
…And it seems a return to silver as a major investment for consumers in India may be on the cards. Following the recent import tax hikes for gold, 2015 saw Indian silver imports grow to almost 8,000 tonnes, 14% up on the previous 2014 record. At the same time, demand for gold jewellery, which accounts for 75% of all Indian gold demand, is down 30% for the 12 months to the end of September 2016, according to the World Gold Council. This points to a possible shift back to silver as a more prominent investment in India.
…Even a small substitution from gold to silver would result in a massive increase in the price of silver. A 10% reallocation from gold jewellery investment to silver in India would nearly double world silver jewellery demand. Mines and other sources would not be able to fill the gap immediately; prices would rise, further fuelling demand and creating a new, shiny headache for those trying to marshal India’s unusual economy.
PG View: The silver market is indeed substantially smaller than the gold market. If this trend continues (and is allowed to continue) the price implications will be significant.
08-Nov (CNBC) — The rebound rally in gold is well established with a move above $1,290. The upside target is near $1,350.
It’s good to see the gold uptrend continuing but the upside target delivers only 4.65% profit. Rather than trade gold there are more effective and profitable ways to trade this rebound. Gold’s companion, silver, has similar characteristics but offers a higher return for the same behavior.
Silver lags the gold price behavior. Silver has a resistance level near $18.75. This is the equivalent to the $1,290 resistance level on the gold chart. Silver lags gold so the silver price is only just moving above resistance near $18.75.
A breakout at this level has a target near $21.00. This trade offers a 12% return compared with a 4.65% return from gold for the same price behavior move.
Silver has a longer term upside target of $26.00. That’s 36.8% from the current price near $19.00.
Silver is slower to move but it has more room to move and this delivers better profits.
22-Aug (Kitco News) – Gold prices are down and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading Monday. Silver prices are sharply lower and hit a seven-week low overnight. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish daily posture for the precious metals to start the trading week, as the U.S. dollar index is higher and crude oil prices are lower. December Comex gold was last down $6.80 an ounce at $1,339.40. September Comex silver was last down $0.432 at $18.88 an ounce.
…The highlight of this week will be the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the event on Friday. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have been mixed, but the majority of their recent rhetoric has leaned toward the hawkish side of U.S. monetary policy. Fed Vice Chairman Stanely Fischer on Sunday gave a speech that was deemed hawkish. There are now increasing ideas in the marketplace that the Fed will raise interest rates yet this year. Such has put some upside pressure on the U.S. dollar index just recently.
PG View: Silver fell to an 8-week low, boosting the gold/silver ratio back above 70.
04-Aug (Bloomberg) — An ounce of gold buys the least amount of silver since 2014, which may signal to some investors that precious metals are set for further gains. In a bull market for precious metals, silver usually outperforms gold, and the reverse tends to be the case in a bear market. The ratio between the two fell to the lowest in three decades in 2011 when gold climbed to a record. Silver may continue to outperform its sister metal into 2017, according to Georgette Boele, a currency and commodity analyst at ABN Amro Bank NV.
Silver traded briefly back above $20, after trading as low as $19.19 post-NFP. Presently up a dime on the day.
07-Jul (CNBC) — The era of modern day monetary omniscience is coming to an end.
Look no further than the near 30-percent year-to-date rally in gold that has it sitting at 28-month highs and the almost 50-percent rise in silver this year to near two-year highs.
Look at gold as the anti-fiat currency. The one that can’t be manipulated, debased, and conjured up electronically at one’s whim. One has to actually dig it out from the ground. Thus, it is referred to as “precious” as there is a limited supply.
While all the gold that has ever been mined still exists, you can fit it all in two Olympic-size swimming pools. It is a rare commodity – actually, I’d rather refer to it as a currency. And rare is not something that can be said for the world’s paper currencies that have been and continue to be printed in the trillions.
05-Jul (MarketWatch) — Silver traded at two-year highs Tuesday, maintaining its status as the standout among metals as lingering post-Brexit economic uncertainty underpinned the relative safety of haven investments, including silver and gold.
September silver gained 17 cents, or 0.8%, to $19.75 an ounce. It earlier pushed above $21 an ounce on an intraday basis for the first time since July 21, 2014.
At least one analyst questioned if silver’s move had come too far, too fast, and was possibly driven by unusual factors, including thin volume surrounding the U.S. Independence Day holiday. U.S. markets were closed Monday.
“The metals may be taking a breather before the next leg, but I remain skeptical, especially on silver,” said Peter Hug, Kitco Metals global trading director, in a blog post. “It appears that the $3 move on silver from the $18.50 level last Thursday to $21.20 over the weekend was likely a large commercial that decided or was forced to cover a short position…”
…Gold and silver pushed higher after comments Tuesday from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. He said the U.K. is facing a “period of uncertainty and economic adjustment.” He justified the measures the central bank has taken to support the economy, though warned that they will not “fully and immediately” be able to offset market and economic volatility.
01-Jul (Reuters) — Gold rose 1 percent on Friday and was heading for its fifth weekly gain, supported by a weaker dollar and prospects for further monetary policy easing in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.
Spot gold rose to a session high of $1,338 an ounce, and was 0.8 percent higher at $1,332.76 an ounce by 1155 GMT. The metal gained 8.8 percent in June, its biggest monthly rise since February.
Gold’s strength benefited silver, which breached the $19 an ounce level on Friday for the first time since September 2014. It rose as much as 3.8 percent to $19.40 and traded 2.6 percent higher at $19.18. Silver was on track for its best week since August 2013 having gained more than 8 percent so far.
“For gold, the initial reaction was safe-haven demand due to the uncertain political situation in Europe, but then the latest move might be more of a reaction to comments from central banks that they are moving to an easing bias,” Danske Bank senior analyst Jens Pedersen said.
“Near term, the pivotal moment for gold will be next Friday’s (U.S.) jobs report, because a decent print will at least remove the uncertainty about the state of the U.S. jobs market and the Fed’s decision to postpone any rate hike would be more about the external effect of the Brexit vote on the U.S. economy,” Pedersen said.
The dollar fell 0.4 percent against a basket of six currencies, while European stocks recovered on signs that central banks such as the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will loosen monetary conditions even further.
Concerns about the global economy have made a U.S. rate rise in coming months less likely, analysts say, but much will depend on U.S. economic data and markets will be watching non-farm payrolls due on July 8 in particular for clues.
Low U.S. interest rates are positive for gold because the opportunity cost of holding it decreases and the dollar typically falls, making the metal cheaper.
Societe Generale raised its gold price forecasts on Thursday on concerns about the ongoing political, financial and economic fallout of Britain’s vote last week to leave the European Union.
“Looking ahead, it seems that gold will remain one of the major beneficiaries in the current backdrop, as heightened volatility and lingering uncertainty will keep investors’ risk
appetite in check,” the bank said in a note.
Silver funds have taken in a wave of new cash this year and assets are approaching an all-time high. Prices are up 23 percent in 2016, following a similar rally in gold on speculation the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising interest rates.
“We’re still seeing big chunks of managed money coming into the silver market,” Adrian Ash, head of research at online-trading service BullionVault, said by phone from London. “Inflows from our clients match those at the all-time highs of early 2011.”
“Silver has gone mental as it sometimes does,” he said. “It’s gold on steroids.”
Silver is often used as a more volatile play on gold’s inflation and risk-hedging properties. The performance this year has beaten other precious metals — gold, platinum and palladium. While silver funds have seen a surge in popularity, they’re still a tiny part of the market compared to gold.
29-Apr (Bloomberg) — Silver climbed to the highest in a year and headed for the best month since 2013, getting a boost from the dollar’s slump and an improving outlook for industrial demand. Gold neared a one-year high.
All precious metals rose as a gauge of the dollar touched an 11-month low after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth cut prospects for higher interest rates, adding to the appeal of non-yielding assets. Traders now see a 59 percent chance of the Federal Reserve raising borrowing costs this year, down from 64 percent at the start of this week.
Silver’s 15 percent surge this month has bettered gold’s advance amid optimism that industrial usage will increase as China’s economy shows signs of stabilizing. About half of the metal’s demand comes from products ranging from electronics to solar panels. The country’s silver imports climbed 39 percent in March, rebounding from the lowest since 2014, customs data show.
“Investors’ confidence that the Fed will increase the rate at the next meeting has declined, leading to the dollar weakening and driving the up the prices for the precious metals,” Dmitry Kolomystyn, the chief commodities strategist at Sberbank CIB, said by phone from Moscow. “Silver is rocketing” and has also benefited from improving Chinese demand, he said.
22-Apr (MarketWatch) — Gold futures were headed for back-to-back declines Friday but could salvage a weekly gain, while silver prices remain near their highest in about a year. Metals markets are consolidating late-week after a significant rise as traders contemplate what’s next for interest rates and their impact on holding nonyielding precious metals.
Financial markets assessed the European Central Bank’s decision to stand pat on its primary interest-rate tools and looked ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week. Metals trading remains largely reliant on the latest moves for the dollar trading pairs, with a focus on eurodollar. A stronger dollar tends to put pressure on metals priced in that currency.
“The euro has given up all its gain against the dollar after the ECB’s decision. This is despite the fact that the ECB has shown no immediate need to add stimulus, which should boost the value of the euro,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst with AvaTrade. “However, the trade hasn’t worked according to its logic and traders have decided to shave some profit this trade…the ECB president has said that the risk is still tilted towards the downside for global growth [and] the bank will continue to use its tools to combat this.”
PG View: With silver above $17, the downside in gold is likely to be quite limited.