“‘For much of 2018, investors tended to focus on other, higher-yielding asset classes [than gold],’ says a note from specialist analysts Metals Focus, ‘but we do expect this position to gradually change, especially during the latter part of 2019…[as] a slowdown in the US economy will encourage the Fed to adopt a far more dovish stance towards its interest rate policy.’ Forecasting that ‘a bull market in gold [will] emerge from late 2019 onwards,’ Metals Focus think that uptrend will then ‘remain in place for two to three years.'”
USAGOLD note (12-19-2019): Adrian Ash passes along another positive reading for the yellow metal for 2019, this time from London’s Metals Focus.
USAGOLD note (3-15-2019): This prediction from Metals Focus in December appears to have been prescient and unfolding on a timeline much sooner than originally anticipated. On December 19, the date Metals Focus released their study, gold was trading in the $1240 range. It reached $1340 February 19th, two months later, and is hovering now in the $1300 range.
Repost from 12-19-2018
“The next leg higher for Gold will see a price peak near $1450 before another brief sideways/stalling pattern sets up. After that, our research suggests a rally will quickly drive Gold prices above $1550 (or much higher). As we’ve been suggesting, Silver will likely lag behind Gold by about 20+ days. We believe Silver is going to see an incredible upside price move – even bigger than Gold in percentage terms. Our belief is that Silver will be trading above $26 to $28 per ounce – almost DOUBLE the recent low price level, when Gold will be trading just above $2000 per ounce. The reason for this is the relationship between the Gold/Silver/US Dollar pricing levels – called the Gold/Silver Ratio.”
USAGOLD note: A very optimistic forecast from a group that has made “some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.”
“Heng Koon How of United Overseas Bank says gold prices could rally in part because the ‘key central banks’ are allocating more into the safe haven asset.”
USAGOLD note: United Overseas Bank, a large multi-national financial institution located in Singapore, is bullish on gold for very sound, long-term reasons.
“A slowing global economy, stock market turmoil, delays to interest rate rises and potential U.S. dollar weakness are expected to boost average annual gold prices to their highest since 2013, a Reuters poll found.”
USAGOLD note: Though the price projections seem on the low side, as is the case often in these kinds of surveys, it is good to see that a poll of top analysts and traders gives gold a positive outlook for the rest of 2019 and going into 2020.
Repost from 5-2-2019
“Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22. We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.”
USAGOLD note: As we like to mention regularly, when we post an opinion like this it is not necessarily because we endorse it. Rather, we think it worth passing along so that the reader can make his or her own judgement as to its usefulness. We continue to advise ownership of gold and silver for long-term asset preservation purposes rather than as vehicles for speculation.
“Tsaklanos expects ‘the gold market to build up energy during the summer.’ Any breakthrough, he predicts, ‘is likely going to happen in October or November, and it would pave the way to $1,550.'”
USAGOLD note: There is much on the table with respect to the price of gold, as well as other markets, much requiring a squaring of the books – a coming to terms. Time will tell whether or not that happens before the end of the year, but there are a good many who have come public with the determination that we are now in the calm before the storm.
Gold could go to $1800 to $2200 in the long run
A number of technical analysts have reverted to a more bearish forecast over the past few weeks with the $1250 area once again being touted as the downside support area. Many of those same technical analysts, though, have a significantly more positive outlook for the longer term.
Among that group is Gary Wagner of the Wagner Financial Group who sees $1267 or even $1247 as possibilities in the short run, but also forecasts the possibility of $1800 to $2200 in the longer run. “Our research,” he explains in an article published recently at the Singapore Bullion Market Association website, “suggests that gold is in the final phase of a major long-term impulse cycle. This model also provides a look-back at the final major bullish wave could be traced back to end of 2015, following a correction to $1,040. This corrective fourth wave developed from the all-time high at $1,900 in 2011. The model suggests that gold could re-test the record highs that, if taken out, could see an extensive surge to between $1800 and $2200 per troy ounce.”
Caveat: At USAGOLD, it bears repeating, we have always advocated the ownership of both gold and silver coins and bullion for long-term asset preservation purposes rather than speculative gain. Though we pass along various projections, we do so with the caveat that anything can happen. The analyst who forecasts downside today can quickly change his or her outlook to the upside tomorrow – or vice versa. The long term charts for gold and silver, though, reveal a consistent upward trend that has served investors well in the period since 1971 when the global monetary system departed the gold standard and entered the fiat money era.
“Today, fear of a financial collapse has receded, and so have the prices of both precious metals. Gold sits at about $1,300 and silver languishes a little above $15. Is it time to buy at these bargain prices? The answer is yes, especially silver, but not for the reasons you think.”
USAGOLD note: We at USAGOLD have long advocated adding silver to the mix for portfolio insurance purposes especially at times like the present when the gold-silver ratio is high (now 85 to 1). At the same time, we do not advocate silver at the exclusion of gold, but more as an adjunct through which the investor conceivably can get more bang for his or her buck if silver outperforms gold to the upside.
Image courtesy of © Degussa Goldhandl 2019
Repost from 4-3-2019
“The second part of our forecast in 1981 said that according to our very long-term cycle study, that bear market would be followed by a 30-year rise in gold. We even said we had no idea what would cause it, but the cycles said it should happen. If the forecast I made in 1981 still holds true, gold could have a continued secular bull market until 2030. That means the gold bull market could have about 11 more years to go. Historically, the final phase of a bull market is the most spectacular.”
USAGOLD note: Dohmen’s conclusions are worth noting in that he called the twenty-year bear market for gold that began in 1981 and ended in 2001.
Repost from 4-23-2019
“With the setup for silver now looking at its most healthy for a long time, what do the latest COTs have to tell us? You are invited to directly compare the latest COT chart for silver with its 1-year chart above, which is another reason a 1-year timeframe for one of the silver charts was selected. This is edge of the chair stuff for as we can see silver’s COT is at its most bullish since last November when the silver price was down making the 2nd low of its Double Bottom.There was a big drop in Commercials’ short positions last week and the Large Specs, who love to give up at the bottom, have thrown in the towel and legged it for the hills, which is just what we want to see before a rally.”
USAGOLD note: No rally like a silver rally. . . .We have had a steady stream of silver buyers at USAGOLD over the past several weeks buying both bars and bullion coins. Maund offers TA insights at the link above . . . .
Image courtesy of DeGussaGoldHandl
Repost from 4-23-2019
“Essentially, the West will see fading growth. The Fed’s actions will be negative for the dollar and positive for the fear trade for gold. The East will see solid growth and that will be supportive for the love trade for gold.”
USAGOLD note: Stewart Thompson lays out the case for gold with 24 quick-read nuggets that tell why a huge relief rally is imminent. . . . .
“[Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper] expects the yellow metal to test last year’s closing high of $1362 an ounce in the final three months of the year. And, her forecast gets even more bullish by 2020. ‘We actually think gold prices are more likely to break upside further in 2020 averaging $1375 next year,’ said Cooper.”
USAGOLD note: A positive note on a negative day that improves as it wears on. . . . .
“‘Silver does not represent large components of end products,’ Smirnova explains, pointing out that electronics, cars, and medicines don’t use a lot of the metal per unit, so an economic slowdown probably won’t have a big impact on it. Its use in solar applications is also ‘insulated from economic growth” because that market is ‘more driven by government incentives and the need for renewable energy.’ Instead, it’s the ‘return of retail investment demand [that] will be the driving force behind an increase in the silver price,’ Smirnova predicts.”
USAGOLD note: Conclusions similar to our own. . . We will remind our readers that when silver moves to the upside, it tends to move in grand fashion. Please see chart above.
Repost from 4-15-2019
USAGOLD note: “Men, it has been well said,” says Charles Mackay in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, “think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” At present we are experiencing a modern-day version of that process at USAGOLD. We do not have a rush to buy gold at the moment. Instead, we are experiencing a steady stream of new clientele interested in hedging the extremes Polleit outlines in the report linked above. In addition, clients who bought early in gold’s secular bull market (the early 2000s) and then later sold at higher prices (2010-2015) are now returning to the market as buyers. Usually they cite a combination of attractive pricing and the presence of various underlying risks in the financial system as driving that decision
(USAGOLD-April 1, 2019) – The U.S. Mint reports sales of American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins running well ahead of last year’s pace at the end of March. Gold Eagle sales were up 33.3% over last year’s first quarter performance while Silver Eagle sales were up 37.9% over the same period. Month over month, Gold Eagle sales were more than three times higher than sales from March of last year. Silver Eagle sales were down 7% when compared to March of last year. Many analysts consider bullion coin sales a bellwether for interest in the precious metals. This year’s strong uptick indicates increased activity among American investors interested in including gold and silver in their holdings as safe-haven hedges and an underpriced asset class.
Repost from 4-3-2019
“The 7% increase in price [predicted recently by the Silver Institute] that is forecast to occur, if it will materialize, will be the beginning of a sustained silver price boom, which might last decades. The supply/demand dynamics make it imperative for this to happen, which is why I have been steadily buying physical silver in the past few years.”
USAGOLD note: We will remind our readers that when silver moves to the upside, it tends to move in grand fashion. Please see chart above.
Repost from 4-3-2019
“‘Gold is likely to rise to $1,400 per troy ounce by year’s end. . . ‘We expect a silver price of $16.50 per troy ounce at year’s end. This would mean a gold/silver ratio of 85.’”
USAGOLD note: Commerzbank believes that central banks continue to be a strong market for gold for the rest of 2019. . . .
Repost from 3-20-2019
“But, I think silver has been providing us with the clearest indications in the metals market. It had me looking higher as we caught that bottom in November of last year, and it had me looking for a pullback when we were topping out at the end of January. In fact, even in the smaller degree moves, we caught the top in silver last week, and have been looking down for a drop since then. But, now, silver is providing us with a bottoming indication rather than a selling indication.”
USAGOLD note: Giving credence to Gilburt’s prediction, we have had an influx of investors in recent weeks buying silver coins (usually American Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs) and bullion. A good portion of the volume is from investors buying for their Individual Retirement Accounts and other retirement plans.
“Gold is a highly liquid yet scarce asset, and it is no one’s liability. It is bought as a luxury good as much as an investment. As such, gold can play four fundamental roles in a portfolio:
–a source of long-term returns
–a diversifier that can mitigate losses in times of market stress
–a liquid asset with no credit risk that has outperformed fiat currencies
–a means to enhance overall portfolio performance.”
USAGOLD note: Why gold makes sense for private investors as a long-term, all-weather portfolio addition. . . . . . .
“In her latest precious-metals report Thursday, Georgette Boele, coordinator of foreign exchange and precious metals strategy at ABN AMRO, said that the metal’s technical outlook supports higher prices. ‘Despite the recent sharp decline in prices, prices are still above the 200-day moving average at around $1,250 per ounce,’ Boele said. ‘We are confident that prices will stay above this level. It is possible that prices drop towards this level and test it, but this would be an opportunity to position for higher gold prices.'”
USAGOLD note: Gold popped back over the $1300 mark in overnight trading . . . . Here at USAGOLD we are beginning to see a slow but sure return to a buy the dip mentality among investors.
“But there’s fashion and there’s style; they’re not the same thing. Fashion is temporary and changes. Style is permanent and adapts. Investing in stocks, outside of a clear strategy based on a buy-and-hold approach, is often a fashion. Gold may be traditional now, but it’s never out of style. And it may soon become fashionable again. Indeed, the change, or the shift, has already begun.”
USAGOLD note: The allusion to fashion reminds us of the old maxim that an ounce of gold from time immemorial would always buy a quality man’s suit. “The price of a fine suit of men’s clothes,” wrote the U.S. Geological Survey last year, “can be used to show anyone who is not familiar with the price history of gold just how very cheap gold is today. With an ounce of gold, a man could buy a fine suit of clothes in the time of Shakespeare, in that of Beethoven and Jefferson, and in the depression of the 1930s.” At present, a quality men’s off-the-rack suit at Brooks Brothers without the shoes and tie ranges in price from $1700 to $2500.
Repost from 11/5/2019
“The rather sharp drop in gold late last week, especially on Friday, came as something as a shock to many investors in the sector, yet as we will proceed to see it was set up to react back here or soon, and a period of consolidation or reaction at around this level will actually put it in a better technical condition to mount a sustainable breakout above the key $1400 level. On its latest 7-month chart the 1st point to observe is that gold is still well within our parabolic uptrend, whose lower boundary is coming into play and providing support, as is the rising 50-day moving average, with additional support being generated by premature sellers in the small Pennant pattern that formed during the first half of January. This is why it closed well off the lows on Friday, and why it could now resume the upward path again soon . . .”
USAGOLD note: Clive Maund weighs in with expert technical analysis following Friday’s breakdown. . . . . .The chart pattern below depicts what he calls a “building parabolic slingshot”.
Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com
“What this 40-year gold price chart learns for 2019 and 2020 is that there is a fair chance that gold’s price will rise to the top of this channel provided that 1200 holds strong as a monthly close. That’s also what we have been repeating recently: the importance of $1200. As gold is getting a bid now we expect gold to rise to $1650 at a certain point where it will meet heavy resistance. This might happen in 2019 already but, for this, we need the lower time frames.”
USAGOLD note: In this short, but fundamentally sound, study from Taki Tsaklanos, he makes a point we have emphasized for many years here at USAGOLD: “First, market-wise, the gold price started trading ‘freely’ with an open market in 1971, on August 15th. That’s when President Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard. So any historic gold price chart should be after that date, as before it was not really relevant.” That is why most of our work on the long-term outlook for gold includes charts beginning in 1970-1971.
Economic analysis should be split into two eras – BDL and ADL, before and after the 1971 delinking of the dollar and gold. (In a recent seminar, Grant Williams of Things That Make You Go. . ‘hmmm’ fame used a series of our long-term gold charts to make the same point.) Nixon commented at the time: “We are all Keynesians now.” The full implementation of Keynesian thought dreamed by academics had become an economic reality, and in the process and inadvertently cemented gold’s role as a long-term portfolio hedge.
Repost from 12-31-2019
“To summarise the point; far from there being a dollar shortage, as market participants believe, the world is awash with dollars to an extraordinary degree. The great dollar unwind is now overhanging markets, which will remove the principal depressant on the gold price. And when it begins, as a source of supply these hot-money dollars will be seen as the continuation of escalating supply, with the prospect of future US trade and budget deficits to be discounted. These dynamics are a duplication of those that led to the failure of the London gold pool in the late-sixties, which led to the abandonment of the Bretton Woods gold-dollar relationship in 1971. And as I argue later in this article, the supply of physical liquidity in bullion markets to satisfy demand arising from dollar liquidation is extremely tight.”
USAGOLD note: Alasdair Macleod covers much ground in this important essay. For those who would like to establish solid intellectual footing in a contemporary context for what many believe will be the next leg in gold’s secular bull market, Gold – A perfect storm for 2019 is a good place to start. His allusions to the late 1960s struck a chord with me – a time when an upward revaluation of gold was roiling under the placid surface of the global monetary scene. Only a handful noticed. According to Macleod, the revaluation process is scheduled to begin in 2019. His essay is highly recommended. . . . .
Repost from 12-23-2018
“They like gold on the idea that the Fed will erode real yields to spur the economy, undermining the dollar. . . ‘While we may continue to hold various trades that benefit from the broader macro and policy context, the ones less likely to be unwound until much later in the inflation cycle are these two,’ JPMorgan said, referring to gold and TIPS.”
USAGOLD note: JP Morgan looks to be on the gold bandwagon for the long term.
“Trading is a cycle and the next stage in the cycle is precious metals, say experts. . . We all know that gold is going to profit from the current situation,’ said one older trader whose market knowledge spanned five decades or more. ‘The moment of truth is coming very soon.'”
USAGOLD note: The time to buy gold is when everything is quiet – before gold cycles back into the headlines again.
“‘The market on a risk reward basis is dangerous,’ he said. ‘We do feel as if individuals ought to cut back their equity exposure. Instead, Tice recommends buying gold, an asset he holds. ‘I’m a believer that gold represents true money. We are in a fiat money world, and it’s dangerous not to have some gold in your portfolio,’ Tice said.”
USAGOLD note: Tice adds his name to the long list of fund managers hedging their exposure to stocks with an investment in gold.
Repost from 2-8-2018
“Gold has gotten a boost over the past three months, rising more than 4%, as investors flock to so-called “safe-haven” trades, and the commodity is headed even higher in 2019, according to strategists.”
USAGOLD note: A rundown on how various analysts at major trading firms see gold for 2019. Some interesting insights. . . . . . .Psychologically, at least, the tide seems to be turning in gold’s favor.
Repost from 12-23-2019
IGUK/VideoInterview of Ross Norman (Sharps Pixley)/1-30-2019
“As the price of gold storms to a new seven month high, Ross Norman, chief executive officer (CEO) at Sharps Pixley, discusses the London Bullion Market Association (LMBA) forecasts for 2019. Norman, who has been the best forecaster amongst the LMBA over the last 20 years, tells IG that he believes $1,360 is the price to watch. He discusses where the demand is coming from and why the retail investor and trader is the missing link.”
USAGOLD note: Ross Norman explains why the situation in 2019 looks a lot like 1999 at the link above and why a breach of $1360 to the upside could turn out to be an important development.
Repost from 2/6/2019
“Gold gets put forth as a hedge for inflation, a safety play in times of trouble and a commodity play. Whether that’s true is irrelevant to a technical trader. All that matters is the price action. And gold’s price action has been great.”
USAGOLD note: For the techies out there. . . .An interesting piece of very positive technical analysis from someone who once described gold as “nothing more than a shiny rock.”
Repost from 1/31/2019