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- Trump lays into the Federal Reserve, says he’s ‘not thrilled’ about interest rate hikes
- Update Thursday–Gold drops sharply on weak Chinese yuan fix
- Some speculation on yesterday’s sell-off in the gold market
- Gold at one-year low and a record number of investors in survey say it’s a buy
- Gold’s seasonality. . . The best time to buy gold is when everything is quiet.
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Disclaimer - Opinions expressed on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset-preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here. (Please see our Risk Disclosure here.)
Sales of our Canadian Silver Polar Bear 1.5 ounce coins have been brisk, with well over 4000 units sold in just under two days of availability, leaving about 1500 units still available for sale. Silver prices have come down nicely as well, making these an even more attractive entry point than when initially offered.
At just $2.75/oz over the spot price of silver per ounce, these limited run (only 17500 struck), first year of issue (2013) Polar Bears are LESS per troy silver ounce than either a modern Silver Eagle or Silver Maple Leaf. Moreover, at roughly $30.50 per coin, they are a full $4 per coin cheaper than our nearest competitor. At such a great price, it’s no wonder these have been so popular.
Please visit our special offers page link for more details.
• All coins dated 2013, which is the first year these were produced. Only 17,500 total coins were minted in 2013, which means the grouping offered here is roughly 1/3 of all the coins made during that inaugural run.
• Other dealers are charging $35-$36 per coin at best (and in some cases substantially more), making this offer the absolute lowest price for this product in the market right now by a wide margin.
Why gold coins and bullion are the better option for most investors.
Editor’s Note: You decide that the time has come to include gold in your investment portfolio. You contact your investment advisor and he or she puts you into a gold ETF. Did you do the right thing? In this article, which originally appeared at Forbes magazine, Olivier Garret tells why gold coins and bullion owned outright are the better option.
Gold ETFs are rising in popularity due to their convenience. They’re easy to trade, there’s no need to store anything, and no one is going to break into your house to steal your GLD shares.
But there are a lot of hidden dangers inherent in the structure and operation of gold ETFs that few investors are aware of — and these risks are more pronounced than ever, as the threat of another financial crisis is always around the corner.
Considering the public’s waning trust in the banking system, many investors find themselves wondering how GLD stacks up to owning the real thing. When you look at both assets more closely, it’s clear that gold ETFs and gold bullion are very different investments.
Why GLD is not the same as gold
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the largest, most popular gold ETF, is an investment fund that holds physical gold to back its shares. The share price tracks the price of gold, and it trades like a stock, but the vast majority of investors don’t have a claim on the underlying gold.
The reason for this is that you can only request physical delivery of metal if you own a minimum of 100,000 GLD shares (most investors don’t: at $1,000 gold, 100,000 shares is more than a million dollars). Even if you do own enough shares, the GLD ETF reserves the right to settle your delivery request in cash.
So why is GLD appealing to investors if you never actually own any gold?
For one, the fund is both convenient and low cost. If you’re looking for an inexpensive way to invest in the direction of the gold price, GLD is ideal.
The other advantage is you can employ leverage with options, which can be risky, but it’s something you can’t do with gold bullion. If you’re an investor who doesn’t plan to take delivery and you’re comfortable with a higher degree of risk, GLD can be a good way to gain exposure to the price of gold.
Counterparty risk on all levels
While gold ETFs can be a fine investment, they come with a lot of counterparty risk inherent in their chain of custody. And this risk will only grow commensurately with systemic uncertainties.
Think about it: If you own GLD, you must rely on a counterparty to make good on your investment. If the fund’s management, structure, chain of custody, operational integrity, regulatory oversight, or delivery protocols break down, your investment is at risk.
It all raises too many questions. Can you be sure the bank doesn’t front-run its customers? How safe are the fund’s holdings? Is the fund protected by adequate insurance? Is the custodian bank trustworthy enough to safeguard the gold?
The best reason to own gold is as a hedge against risk. It can be your last line of defense in an economic crisis—a form of wealth insurance, if you will. But since gold ETFs are part of the very banking system you need protection from, you must ask yourself if they serve one of the primary purposes for owning gold.
In a period of financial crisis, the risks inherent in holding GLD would only rise. In fact, the frequency and severity of counterparty risks with gold ETFs are already rising.
When you consider how these ETFs function, the problem of counterparties quickly becomes apparent:
When you invest in GLD, you buy shares through an Authorized Participant, which is usually a large financial institution responsible for obtaining the underlying assets necessary to create ETF shares.
When it does so, it is buying shares in the fund’s trustee, the SPDR Gold Trust. The trustee then uses a custodian (HSBC) to source and store the gold for it.
Trust in the custodian is paramount: If you’re buying gold as a hedge against a failure in the financial system, you must be confident that the custodian would not be impaired if a crisis were to happen.
As HSBC is one of the world’s largest banks, you simply don’t have that assurance. If there’s a systemic disruption, your GLD shares would likely be negatively affected.
Custodians like HSBC can use sub-custodians, such as another bank, to source and store gold. So in addition to the risk you assume with the fund’s primary custodian, you’re now exposed to even more risk because it has added another counterparty.
There are no written contractual agreements between sub-custodians and the trustees or the custodians, which means if a sub-custodian drops the ball, the ability of the trustee or the custodian to take legal action is limited.
This leaves the trustee on the hook for any negligence. But trustees don’t insure the gold for gross negligence; they leave that to the custodian, who secures limited general insurance coverage for the contents of the vaults. The value of the gold in the vaults is likely to be much greater than this limited policy would cover.
What this all boils down to is that if anything happens to any of the counterparties, you’re the one who loses. And you have zero recourse.
This article originally appeared at GoldSeek and is reprinted at USAGOLD with permission.
Speculators reduced bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight week, as net longs fell to their lowest since late October, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday and calculations by Reuters.
The value of the dollar’s net long position totaled $18.47 billion in the week ended Jan. 31, down from $20.04 billion the previous week.
by Michael J. Kosares
Founder, USAGOLD and author of The ABCs of Gold Investing – How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold
“Gold prices have enjoyed a hefty climb so far this year as the market continues to guess the pace and timing of the next U.S. interest-rate hike, but the battle for the U.S. presidency is set to take center stage as Election Day nears. And it doesn’t matter if Republican Party nominee Donald Trump or Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton moves on to be the next president of the United States—gold is likely to come out a winner, George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investment strategy at State Street Global Advisors.” –– Myra Saefong/MarketWatch/10-19-2016
Gold is not just an inert metal, it is also an indifferent metal. It doesn’t care who wins the election. It is apolitical – one might even call it politically agnostic. In the end, it will respond to the macro-economic situation globally as it unfolds no matter who sits behind the desk in the Oval Office. It will assume, as it has in the past, that presidents can only do so much no matter what political agenda he or she intends. Washington, it says, is not Mount Olympus where the gods dwell, but the place where a mere mortal will take the stage January 20, 2017 – for better or worse.
Yesterday, Bloomberg posted a somewhat unbelievable headline for those of us who still adhere to a more or less classical view of economics:
Central bankers rejoice: There are signs that inflation is actually arriving
A decade ago, the posting of such a sentiment would have been full-proof that economic policy makers had finally gone collectively mad. Now it is greeted with enthusiasm amongst the mainstream media and Wall Street as well as apparently (if Bloomberg is right) within the Federal Reserve and the rest of Washington. This might fall under the category of being careful what one should wish for, or it might be just another piece of hopeful propaganda. And then again, the hoped for incipient inflation might simply turn out to be another in a long line of non-starters.
In the end, the same intractable demographic problems outlined here at length over the past several weeks will greet the next president day one of his or her presidency. The baby boomers will continue to eschew spending and attempt to save for retirement. The succeeding generations will continue to be mired in student debt and low-paying jobs that make it difficult to own a home and thereby pump up general demand. And Congress and Washington D.C. are likely to slip into the same institutional tension that has gridlocked the nation politically and economically for more years than any of us care to count.
The combined effect will be continuing weak demand, disinflation and the accompanying systemic risks. Secular stagnation, as some have come to call it, will remain a steep hill to climb for the next president. Should we hit another rut in the road as we did in 2007-2008, gold will be there to help its owners pick up the pieces. It doesn’t care who wins the election and it is indifferent as to which presidential candidate’s name will be attached to the next economic crisis. We might get a bump in one direction or the other after November 8th, but thereafter gold will likely settle into a pattern driven by the big, overarching themes dominating all the financial markets, and the same inducements that have driven its pricing since its secular bull market began in the early 2000s.
One man’s opinion. . .and all I care to say publicly about the upcoming election.
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06-May (USAGOLD) — Unfortunately we experienced some technical difficulties in filming the Week in Review Video this morning.
We’ll catch up with you next week.
Jonathan and Pete
Our March offer features special pricing on the elusive BU pre-1933 Swiss 20 Franc gold coins. Please see details below, or click here for immediate access to the offer page.
Actual Gold Content: .1867 troy ounce
The Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia has always been a highly sought after cornerstone of any historic bullion coin position. It evokes the sound monetary and banking principles for which Switzerland is known, and has long been recognized as an international standard for portability and liquidity. As such, when demand for gold spiked in 2008/9, the Swiss Francs were heavily subscribed and supplies simply never recovered. We were occasionally offered smaller lots, but always at oppressively high premiums, to the point that, in many ways, we gave up on recommending Swiss 20 Francs for inclusion in safe-haven oriented gold positioning and pursuing them for our inventory.
But that said, it would appear the stars have finally aligned, if only for this one moment. It took four sources and some stingy negotiations, but we are now prepared to make available the largest (and least expensive) lot of pre-1933 Brilliant Uncirculated Swiss 20 Franc’s since before the financial crisis.
All participants purchasing ten coins or more will be entered into a raffle to win this Swiss Confederatio Helvetica (minted 1883-1895 – total mintage 1.5 million – BU condition).
Buy more and increase your odds of winning!
On Monday, Goldman Sachs’ global head of commodities Jeffrey Currie released a statement urging anyone who would listen to “short gold”, stating, “We maintain our view of rising U.S. rates and hence lower gold prices with a 3-month target of $1100 and 12-month target of $1000.”
It’s not the Goldman is never right. In fact, more often than not, their calls are fairly accurate.
- But when it comes to gold, Goldman has an awful knack for getting it wrong at the absolute worst times:
Case #1: August 14, 2008:
“Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast on gold prices on Thursday, citing overvalued bullion and expected strength of the dollar against major currencies. The U.S. brokerage said it lowered its 3-month outlook to $745 an ounce from its previous view of $890 an ounce. Goldman also cut its gold forecast to $810 from $905 on a 6-month basis and to $740 from $810 on a 12-month basis.
Let’s see how that worked out:
(3-month) November 14, 2008: Price of gold: $743.10 (GS Prediction $745)
(6-month) February 14, 2009: Price of gold: $940.30 (GS Prediction $810)
(12-month) August 14, 2009: Price of gold: $945.85 (GS Prediction $740)
So Goldman was actually correct short-term, but egregiously wrong in the 6 and 12 month forecasts. Moreover, and much more importantly, look again at those dates: Goldman suggested a falling price (akin to a recommendation to “short gold”) right before the financial crisis!!
Case #2: May 14, 2012 :
“Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stood by its forecast for a rally in gold this year, saying the the precious metal will advance to $1840 an ounce over six months as the U.S. central bank marks on a third round of stimulus in June. Gold remains the ‘currency of last resort” according to analysts led by Jeffrey Currie in a report dated yesterday, the same day that prices sank to the lowest level in four moths….
I’ll have to concede that this one was actually pretty right on the money in terms of price, but what I found striking was the words used by Jeffrey Currie (seeing as how he’s the one making the latest prediction as well). My how things change in just 4 short years. No need for that ‘currency of last resort’ now, in fact, “short it!” Everything is fine!!
Case #3 – December 6, 2012:
Goldman has cut its three, six and 12 month forecasts for gold prices to $1825 an ounce, $1805 an ounce and $1800 an ounce respectively. It also introduced a 2014 price forecast of $1750 an ounce, suggesting price growth could tail off. “Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving U.S. growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013.” The bank added however, that with risks to its growth outlook still elevated, especially given uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, calling a price peak was ‘a difficult exercise.'”
Translation: Gold might be topping, but also might not be, but if its going to go down, it won’t go down much.
Let’s see how this one worked out:
(3-Month) March 6, 2013: $1590.00 (GS Prediction $1825)
(6-month) June 6, 2013: $1390.50 (GS Prediction $1805)
(12-month) December 6, 2013: $1238.35 (GS Prediction $1800)
So in this case, while Goldman Sachs was directionally correct, they were about as far off as you can be in terms of the price magnitude.
And last, but certainly not least, Case #4: April 2014
Currie called gold the “Slam Dunk Sell for 2014” stating prices would end the year at $1050 per ounce. Instead, prices ended the year at $1181.00. While gold eventually did fall to $1060, it wasn’t until late 2015.
Pulling it all together, it boils down to this. Goldman essentially predicted gold prices would fall and the dollar would strengthen (in essence an urging not to buy gold – or even potentially short it) at the exact moment when investors should have been buying gold with both hands (2008). Then Currie/Goldman turned around and grossly under-predicted the decline in gold prices in 2013. In fact, if you look at their cautious outlook, and the narrowly bound price predictions contained in their December 2012 statement, any reasonable individual would conclude that they are probably recommending one ‘Hold’ their position in gold. But again, they missed dramatically.
So when Goldman trots out another recommendation to short gold, and that ‘fears are overblown’, I can’t help but wonder if they once again are on the cusp of an extraordinarily bad prediction – like the one they made in 2008. I’m also struck by the inconsistency between this prediction for gold, and Goldman’s prediction of $20 oil. Make no mistake about it, if oil falls to $20 and stays there, the systemic burden will be immense, headwinds to raising interest rates will reach gale force – and it won’t be long until we’re calling gold the ‘currency of last resort’ all over again.
Minted 1866 – 1907
Actual Gold Content: .48375 troy ounce
When buying gold, most know the fractional rule of thumb: Anything smaller is almost always more expensive that its larger alternative. Take any grouping of modern bullion coins as an example. With historic U.S. coinage, its no different – perhaps exaggerated even. This is due in part to a lower total original mintage for the smaller units – in late 1800’s and early 1900’s about half as many $10 Liberties were produced as $20 Liberties – though the more significant contributing factor was the impact the 1933 recall had on the population of these more negotiable coins. The greater role of $2.5’s, $5’s and $10’s in active circulation at the time left them more readily exposed to the melting pot in 1933 than $20’s. This resulted in an environment today where surviving populations are comparatively even lower than original mintage figures might suggest.
So by and large, $10 Liberties trade at fairly significant premiums to their $20 counterparts month over month, and year over year. This time last year, for example, two $10’s were about $100 more than a single $20 gold piece. It is worth noting as well, that for the first time of tracking this anomaly, it coincides with an environment where the average premiums on historic US coins are simultaneously hovering near multi-year lows. To give you an idea, if you had purchased one of these coins the first time gold approached $1200/oz – in May of 2010 – you would have paid about $785/coin, a whopping $180/ounce or 15% more than you’d pay for the same coins today! Gold may have risen fairly quickly over the past few weeks, but in many ways, this is an opportunity that lets you turn back the clock.
PG View: We still have about 150 of these beautiful coins remaining. They are a great deal, even at the higher price of gold.
14-May (USAGOLD) — Gold surged above resistance at 1224.23 to establish new 12-week highs. The yellow metals is being supported by a weakening economic outlook for the U.S., which has eroded expectations of a Fed rate hike, and consequently weighed on the dollar.
Initial jobless claims remain pretty low, but the latest PPI print of -0.4% continues to reflect a general weakness in the economy. The annualized pace of producer price inflation fell to -1.3% in April, from -0.8% y/y in March. The inability of the Fed to generate the inflation it desires provides little incentive to raise interest rates.
The World Gold Council released their quarterly report on gold demand late yesterday. The report categorized demand for the yellow metal in Q1 as “broadly stable”. The WGC noted that central banks were net buyers of gold for a 17th consecutive quarter, and are expected to continue accumulating through this year.
The WGC also noted an improved view of gold by Western investors, as evidence by the first quarterly rise in ETF holdings since Q4 2012. I think those investors would be far better served in owning physical rather than an ETF, but it is reflective of perhaps a rising level of concern and expectations of gold price appreciation. And here we are early in Q2 at 12-week highs.
We have reported frequently on the flow of gold in recent years from weak hands in the west to strong hands in the east. Financial attorney Avery Goodman, writing over at Seeking Alpha, presents an interesting explanation as to why China in particular has been so aggressively acquiring gold.
I don’t think there is any doubt that China is seeking to eventually establish the yuan as a global reserve currency. Having a large amount of gold as a reserve asset advances the yuan toward that goal. Unseating the dollar as the primary reserve asset would unquestionably hasten the ascent of China.
04-Aug (USAGOLD) — Gold starts the week on a modestly defensive footing below $1300, but still well within the recent range. Thoughts that the Fed may commence tightening sooner than expected are seen by many as weighing on gold. Geopolitical risks, the Argentine default and the latest bailout of a European bank are likely to limit the downside.
While I don’t disagree that many ‘think’ gold will suffer if the Fed starts raising rates, I think I pretty convincingly debunked the notion that this is a hard-and-fast rule in
commentary last week. In fact, the thing most likely to trigger rate hikes is inflation. If the Fed starts chasing prices higher, they’ll likely be chasing gold higher as well.
The Portugal Central Bank has taken over Banco Espírito Santo, the country’s largest bank, in a €4.9 bln bailout. That’s the same central bank that declared with certainty just three-weeks ago that Banco Espírito Santo had enough capital to withstand even ‘a worst-case scenario’. Apparently they flat-out lied, or they severely underestimated just how bad the situation at BES was. Either way, it marks another strike against central bank credibility.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported today that they were launching a new exercise on the Ukrainian border, involving 100 aircraft, to include fighters, bombers and helicopters. This escalation of tensions comes as the Ukrainian military presses its advantage against the last remaining strongholds of the pro-Moscow separatists in the east of the country.
The fighting in Gaza continues amid repeated attempts to secure a cease fire that will last. In Iraq, ISIS forces are getting ‘dangerously close to Baghdad’ according to a Reuters report. ISIS is now threatening the nation’s capitol from both the north and south.
Does the stock market’s relentless push higher seem unbelievable?
Now might be the time to listen to your intuition…
by Jonathan Kosares
“Like the nearly religious belief in the technology bubble, the dot-com boom, the housing bubble, and countless other bubbles across history, people are going to believe what they believe here until reality catches up in the most unpleasant way. The resilience of the market late in a bubble is part of the reason investors keep holding and hoping all the way down. In this market cycle, as in all market cycles, few investors will be able to unload their holdings to the last of the greater fools just after the market’s peak”. – John P. Hussman, Ph.D, Hussman Funds
Over the past month or so, we have received an inordinate number of calls from clients saying some version of ‘this doesn’t feel right.’ Stocks charge higher almost daily, yet consumer confidence is at its lowest level in nine months, Morgan Stanley is predicting the worst holiday shopping season since 2008 (source), GDP growth remains anemic and unemployment stubbornly high. The foundation upon which rising stocks is dependent — a healthy, strong economy — has been thrown out the window as the Fed’s commitment to QE has displaced rational, fundamentals’ driven analysis. So it is no wonder you might feel a little queasy.
And digging deeper, there are a number of ‘coincidences’ that suggest such feelings might not be too far off the mark.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above its 200-day moving average (red line in graph above) for 24 consecutive months, dating back to November of 2011(annotated). The most recent period of sustained growth above the 200-day moving average occurred between October, 2005 – November, 2007 – a 25-month period (annotated). No one needs to be reminded of what happened to stocks in 2008.
Another interesting parallel deals with the percentage extension above the 200-day moving average. The DJIA, by and large, trades in a narrow range within 5% of its 200-day moving average. Deviations outside of this 5% range are typically followed by corrections. Most recently, in April, 2011, the DJIA closed 12.4% above its 200-day moving average. By September it had shed nearly 2000 points, declining from 12810.50 to 10913.4. Today, the DJIA is trading just shy of 7% over its 200-day moving average – not as high in percentage terms as it was in April 2011, but interestingly enough, almost identical to its magnitude in November 2007.
Ben Inker of GMO released some interesting analysis regarding stocks in the firm’s quarterly letter this past month. GMO has a reputation for impartiality, never being too bullish or too bearish, while controlling over $100 billion in assets for pension funds, endowments and accredited investors.
In his report Inker writes:
‘Combining the current P/E of over 19 for the S&P 500 and a return on sales about 42% over the historical average, we would get an estimate that the S&P 500 is approximately 75% overvalued.’
‘But enough about the details. The basic point for us remains the same – the U.S. stock market is trading at levels that do not seem capable of supporting the type of returns that investors have gotten used to receiving from equities. Our additional work does nothing but conﬁrm our prior beliefs about the current attractiveness – or rather lack of attractiveness – of the U.S. stock market.’
Inker is not alone. While the bullish roar still drowns out the naysayers, this kind of analysis is popping up more and more frequently.
So what about gold?
Gold has been holding steady ever since its large drops back in April and June. With stocks performing so well, a lot of the attention gold had seen as it accelerated to $1900 in September 2011 has, for the time being, faded away. We have all heard the investment maxims: “Buy low, sell high. Don’t chase markets and, most of all always hedge your bets.” The only challenge is following that advice without being able to predict the future. All told, there is no way to know if stocks will push higher or sell-off, just as much as there is no way to know if gold has bottomed. But what we do know is that gold looks like a good value relative to stocks. Ironically enough, it is at its best relative value to stocks since…wait for it… January 2008 (see chart below) – two months after the DJIA reversed course after 25 months above its 200-day moving average.
Copyright © 2013 theChartStore.com
In short, the parallels between the current environment in stocks and the one in late 2007 are considerable. Even the ‘gut feeling’ my clients refer to today reminds me of conversations I had with clients back then. While I can’t say that I realistically think another 2008-style collapse is around the corner, I simultaneously can’t rule out the possibility. It seems the Fed is willing to throw any amount of money at the problem, and such circumstances may be sufficient in preventing such profound decimations of wealth as we saw then. But the old saying, “This can’t go on forever” seems more apt than ever.
It could start as small as ‘window dressing’ into the end of this year, gain steam with another debt debate this January, and reach a full-fledged outbreak if fractures in our recovery illuminate the reality that Fed intervention has had little to no meaningful impact on the actual economy. With such a realization, even expansions in QE may not be enough to save the stock market.
I’ll conclude with two parting thoughts:
1. It is better to be a little too early than even a moment too late. Most investors believe that they will always be able to liquidate their positions – to get out in time. In a market panic, desperate sellers will quickly outnumber willing buyers and liquidity can effectively disappear.
2. You’d be hard pressed to find a single investor who didn’t wish they had divested from stocks in favor of gold the last time the investment landscape looks like it does today – November 2007 – January 2008.
If you are looking for a gold-based analysis of the financial markets and economy, we invite you to subscribe to our FREE newsletter – USAGOLD’s Review & Outlook, edited by Michael J. Kosares, the author of the preceding post, the founder of USAGOLD and the author of “The ABCs of Gold Investing: How To Protect And Build Your Wealth With Gold.” You can opt out any time and we won’t deluge you with junk e-mails.
Jonathan Kosares graduated cum laude from the University of Notre Dame with a dual major in Finance and Computer Applications. He has been with USAGOLD since 2002, and currently holds the position of Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing. He is the moderator of the USAGOLD RoundTable series, has authored numerous articles on the gold market and manages client activity for the high net worth division as well as the USAGOLD Trading and Storage Program.
USAGOLD Review & Outlook is the contemporary, web-based version of our client letter, which traces its beginnings to the early 1990s under the News & Views banner. Its principle objectives have always been to keep our clients informed of important developments in the gold market; condense the available gold-based news and opinion into a brief, readable digest; and counter the traditional anti-gold bias in the mainstream media. That formula has won it a five-figure subscription base (and growing). In addition to our regular newsletters, we occasionally publish in-depth special reports that focus on events and developments of interest to gold owners.
Valued for its insight, accuracy and reliability, this pubilcation is linked and reprinted regularly by a large number of websites both in the United States and around the globe. It also enjoys the goodwill of countless websites, individuals and organizations who contribute regularly to its content. To this group, we owe a deep debt of gratitude.
Disclaimer – Opinions expressed on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.
“The Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to raise short-term interest rates, even after the unemployment rate falls to the central bank’s threshold of 6.5%, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday. . .
The Fed chairman sounded several dovish notes. He said that the unemployment rate probably understates the weak condition of the labor market. And he stressed that the Fed was concerned about the current very low inflation rate.”
Richard Dyson/The Telegraph/7-05-2013
“There are also some seriously credible professionals currently buying, albeit quietly. One is Sebastian Lyon, the fund manager overseeing Personal Assets Trust, a unique, quoted £600m investment fund whose overriding aim is to preserve shareholders’ capital. . . Personal Assets Trust’s excellent performance during the worst of the crisis was largely due to its big investment in bullion – currently more than 12pc of its portfolio. In recent months, as the price has fallen, Mr Lyon has topped up gold holdings. That someone who follows such a cautious mandate, and has done so with such success, is today a buyer of gold is worth noting.”
Clients and Friends,
Many thanks to those who participated in our special offers over the past few days. We are now sold out of both our 4000 Silver Maple Leaf allotment, as well as the 500 British Sovereigns referenced in this month’s newsletter. We will continue to keep you posted on items of interest and good deals as they come available.
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26-Oct (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell at the close on Friday, to mark their third-weekly decline in row, as investors scrutinized U.S. data on GDP and consumer sentiment as well as economic indicators from Spain and South Korea.
Gold rebounded from the day’s lows after a modestly better-than-expected rise in third-quarter U.S. GDP print “improved risk appetite,” said Peter Grant, chief market analyst at USAGOLD, but “but the negative revision to October sentiment tempered enthusiasm somewhat.”
… “Gold has indeed been inversely correlated to the dollar of late.,” said Grant. But ”one should not get married to the inverse correlation between the greenback and gold.”
The dollar index has passed back and forth across the 80 level many times in the years after it first approached it in 2004, he said. “The midpoint of the range that has developed is 80.20, so essentially the dollar … is unchanged” since then, and “yet gold has quadrupled in value over the same period.”