–– Now posted ––
Commitment of Traders reports for Tuesday, April 16, 2019
GOLD • SILVER • US DOLLAR INDEX
Commentary by Zac Storella, CountingPips
Toward a better understanding of the U.S. national debt . . .
and its consequences
“As of Friday, April 12, 2019, the national debt stood at $22,027,837,127,788.04 – $966 billion higher than a year ago, $2.081 trillion higher than when Donald Trump took office January 20, 2017, and nearly double where it was ten years ago. It is no doubt much higher now than it was then as that is the nature of the national debt. It always grows. It never shrinks. And that has consequences for the country and for you as an investor.”
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How gold performs during periods of deflation,
disinflation, stagflation and hyperinflation
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” – Aldous Huxley
Though Huxley’s observation is readily applied to humanity collectively, it does not apply so easily to individual investors. As justification, we offer the ongoing (and long-term) success of the USAGOLD website as well as the soaring statistics on the growth of private gold ownership over the past decade both in the United States and abroad, inspired directly by the lessons learned over the past decade of financial market upheaval. The following short essays are dedicated to the safe-haven gold investor who, like noted financial author Nicholas Taleb, believes that it is just as important to prepare for what we cannot foresee as what we can.
Gold as a deflation hedge
Gold as a disinflation hedge
Gold as a stagflation hedge
Gold as hyperinflation hedge
Gold as the portfolio choice for all seasons
A chronology of panics, mania, crashes and collapses
(400 BC to present)
‘Gold shone with the placid certainty of received tradition’
“I had the happy occasion recently of receiving a telephone call from an old client and friend – a physician safely retired near the sea and alongside one of the South’s oldest golf clubs. It was good to hear from this student of the markets – one of life’s steady and thoughtful practitioners. Back at the turn of the century, Doc foresaw much of what would happen economically in the United States and purchased what he considered enough gold to see him through it.”
[For the rest of Doc’s story we invite you to visit this link.]
The Power of Gold Diversification
“Although it is needed in good times,
it can be vital when times are difficult.”
Enlarged version at link
This short article begins with reference to a speech by Sir Peter Tapsell on the merits of gold ownership before the House of Commons in 1999. The occasion was Britain’s proposed sale of over half of its gold reserves at under $300 per ounce. It ends by comparing the performance of two investment portfolios from the time of that speech to present. One portfolio – the more successful of the two – included a diversification with gold; the other did not. Sir Tapsell, who passed away this past August, lived to see his defense of gold vindicated. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.
The $12 trillion federal debt bombshell
“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy
this looming mountain of Treasuries”
In a recent Financial Times editorial, Gillian Tett, who rose to prominence for her coverage of the 2008 financial crisis, raised the question of financing the U.S. debt. Headlined America faces a battle to find buyers for its bonds, her article begins by referencing a letter to Secretary Mnuchin from Beth Hammack, a Goldman Sachs banker who also chairs the Treasury Bond Advisory Committee. The letter, she says, contains a bombshell . . .
NEWS & VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
The contemporary, web-based version of our client letter traces its beginnings to the early 1990s as a hard-copy newsletter mailed to our clientele. Its principal objectives have always been the same – to keep our clients informed on important developments in the gold market, condense the available gold-based news and opinion into a brief, readable digest, and to counter the traditional anti-gold bias in the mainstream media. That formula has won it a five-figure subscription base. In addition to our regular newsletters, we occasionally publish in-depth special reports that focus on events and developments of interest to gold owners. Valued for their insight, accuracy and reliability, our publications are linked and reprinted by a large number of websites both in the United States and around the globe.
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We invite your visit. We encourage your bookmark.
Monthly Client Letter
Back first week of April.
Bridging the ‘Fourth Turning’ with Gold
It began in 2008. It is scheduled to end in 2028.
What happens between now and then?
“Howe designates 2008 as the start date for the current fourth turning. Since turnings typically last 20-23 years, it will end sometime between 2028 and 2031. That puts us about midway through the cycle. At the moment, if the politicians, Wall Street and press accounts on the status of the economy are to be believed, the good times have arrived. For many Americans, though, that arrival has some pretty dark clouds hanging over it – the deep political divisions, the escalating trade wars, the emerging nation debt and currency crisis, the overvalued stock market, the threat of rising interest rates – and that is just a sampling of fourth-turning strata that worries global investors. The nation despite the rosy outlook is a bit unnerved by it all. For his part, Howe, who saw it coming, believes things could get much worse before before they get better.”
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NEWS & VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis
on the Economy and Precious Metals
Gold in the age of high-speed electronic trading
The March issue of News & Views is now out to subscribers. This month we delve into the reasons why gold makes a great deal of sense in the age of machine-driven financial markets.
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If you appreciate analysis that is a bit off the beaten track and concentrates on the long term merits of gold and silver ownership, you might appreciate receiving our monthly newsletter on an on-going basis. It is offered free-of-charge as a service to our regular clientele and as a courtesy to prospective clients.
The National Debt and Gold
Here’s why the two have risen together since the 1970s
and why the correlation is likely to continue
“It is a fact that when your national debt gets to the level ours is, that it constitutes an economic threat to the society, and that kind of threat ultimately has a national security consequence for it.” – John Bolton, U.S. National Security Adviser to President Trump
“Last month, as the US midterm elections approached, Deutsche Bank analysts released a calculation that should have made American voters wince. It shows that the US government currently pays $1.43bn each day (yes, day) to service its public debt — 10 times more than any other G7 country (Italy is a distant second in this grim league).” – Gillian Tett, Financial Times
Gold – A reverse bubble in search of a pin
The victim could quickly find itself the beneficiary
“The current COMEX short position in gold is a computer-driven market bubble blown to enormous proportions. Now at a record level, it is a different kind of bubble, though, from the type we usually associate with the term – a reverse bubble brought to life and nurtured through excessive selling rather than buying. Nevertheless, it is just as deadly and opportunistic as the proverbial kind – a bubble in search of a pin.”
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A Gold Classics Library Selection
Money and politics in the land of Oz
The extraordinary story behind the extraordinary story of
“The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”
by Professor Quentin Taylor, Rogers State University
Year in, year out, Money and politics in the land of Oz is among our most highly-visited Gold Classics Library selections. Here is the extraordinary story behind the extraordinary story of ‘The Wonderful Wizard of Oz’. Most have seen the movie version of this allegorical tale, but few are aware of what the various characters, places and things represented in the mind of Frank Baum, the tale’s author. Though ‘The Wonderful Wizard of Oz’ was written over 100 years ago, the themes will be recognizable to those with an interest in golden matters. While many today consider gold an instrument of financial and personal freedom, in Baum’s tale, it is painted as a villain — the tool of oppression. So, as you are about to see, we have come full circle, and gold has traveled a yellow brick road of its own.
[Gold Classics Library Index]
During the month of January, pundits and prognosticators cast the runes on gold and silver prices for the upcoming year. We collected their predictions and accompanying analysis at the page linked below and invite your visit. Though the early-in-the-year prediction frenzy is now pretty much over, we will update the page as new entries surface.
We invite you bookmark. We invite your return visit.