Author Archives: USAGOLD

Short and Sweet

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Gold suitably undervalued

“The price of a fine suit of men’s clothes,” says the U.S. Geological Survey, “can be used to show anyone who is not familiar with the price history of gold just how very cheap gold is today. With an ounce of gold, a man could buy a fine suit of clothes in the time of Shakespeare, in that of Beethoven and Jefferson, and in the depression of the 1930s.”

So where do we stand in 2019 with respect to The Quality Man’s Attire-Gold Ratio? At Brooks Brothers a top quality, off-the-rack suit ranges between $2625 and $3122 without a vest. Brooks Brothers does carry a less expensive suit at about $1250, but the ratio requires a top (not lower or middle) quality man’s suit. On London’s Saville Row – the standard for quality men’s attire – a hand-tailored men’s suit ranges in price from £3500 ($4620) at Huntsman to £4950 ($6534) at Kilgour (as published in Gentleman’s Quarterly). By any of those measures, gold at $1300 per ounce is suitably undervalued.

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Gold specs boost bullish bets most since October

Through Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.

Gold specs boost bullish bets most since October

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators strongly lifted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 124,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 14th. This was a weekly gain of 49,125 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,411 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 40,560 contracts (to a weekly total of 226,361 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by -8,565 contracts for the week (to a total of 101,825 contracts).

The Gold speculator position jumped this week and rose for a third consecutive week – gaining by +87,141 in that period. This week’s gain was the most since October 16th when the net position rose by 55,842 contracts. The Gold spec standing is now at the highest level since February 26th.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -137,183 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -40,824 contracts from the total net of -96,359 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1296.30 which was a gain of $10.70 from the previous close of $1285.60, according to unofficial market data


Silver speculator bets dip lower into bearish territory

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators slightly added to their bearish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -2,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 14th. This was a weekly change of -1,252 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -957 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 196 contracts (to a weekly total of 77,542 contracts) but being overcome by the gross bearish position (shorts) that increased by 1,448 contracts for the week (to a total of 79,751 contracts).

The Silver net position has declined lower for six out of the past seven weeks and now sits in a small bearish position at -2,209 contracts. Spec positions have fallen by over -60,000 contracts in just the past 11 weeks after reaching a strong bullish level on February 26th at a total +58,313 contracts.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -12,778 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 3,881 contracts from the total net of -16,659 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1481.20 which was a shortfall of $-11.40 from the previous close of $1492.60, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index speculator bets fell this week

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 26,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 14th. This was a weekly decrease of -1,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,233 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position lowering by -6,691 contracts (to a weekly total of 40,211 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position which decreased by -5,135 contracts for the week (to a total of 13,534 contracts).

US dollar speculators cut back on their bullish positions for the second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The overall standing has now fallen to the lowest level in seven weeks and the overall USD Index sentiment is below the 30,000 contract level for the past nine weeks after a previous streak above this threshold for thirty-two weeks.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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COT–Gold specs boost bullish bets most since October


–– Now posted ––
Commitment of Traders reports for Tuesday, May 14, 2019
GOLD • SILVER • US DOLLAR INDEX

Commentary by Zac Storella, CountingPips

[LINK]


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Recent client testimonial

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“Thank you! It has been a pleasure doing business with your Company! You’ve treated the small investor (me) just like you would a millionaire. Best wishes, and I hope I can make some purchases in the future.” – L.W., Savannah, Georgia

We also treat millionaires . . . well. . . like millionaires – whether they admit to being millionaires or not [smile].

We receive unsolicited testimonials like L.W.’s routinely. Please see our Client Testimonials page for more feedback, and be sure to visit the Better Business Bureau for even more in the way of FIVE-STAR reviews.  Don’t do business with any gold company until you have checked it out.

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Gold Classics Library

A Gold Classics Library Selection


A Layman’s Guide to Golden Guidelines
for Wise Money Management
Gresham’s Law, Say’s Law, Rule of 72, Marginal Utility, Diminishing Returns, Regression to the Mean, Unintended Consequences, Murphy’s Law, Occam’s Razor, Law of Attraction, Law of Polarity, and more

by R.E. McMaster, former editor of The Reaper newsletter

There is an old saying that not all that glitters is gold — as in the gold coins many of you have held in your hands. There is another kind of gold that inhabits the practical wisdom of the ages. In today’s “go-get-’em,” “read-it-and-forget-it” world of everyday web browsing, it can be a challenge to separate the run of the mill from the meaningful. It is with that thought in mind we offer this compendium of the rules and laws of finance and investment by long-time market analyst R.E. McMaster. Formerly the writer/editor of the widely-circulated The Reaper newsletter, McMaster is known for his occasional forays into the realm of economic philosophy and history. I think you will agree with me that these skillfully condensed descriptions are indeed meaningful — a wellspring of knowledge worth reading, re-reading and passing along to friends and family, especially the kids and grandkids.

(Illustrations by Ed Stein)

[LINK]

[Gold Classics Library Index]

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Short and Sweet

Gold in six easy lessons

1. Don’t buy it because you need to make money; buy it to protect the money you already made.

2. Don’t look at price as a barrier; look at it as an incentive.

3. Don’t buy the paper pretenders; buy the real thing in the form of coins and bullion.

4. Don’t fall prey to glitzy TV ads; do your due diligence instead.

5. Don’t allow naysayers to divert your interest; allow yourself the right to protect your interests as you see fit.

6. Don’t forget the golden rule: Those who own the gold make the rules!

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EASY REFERENCE PAGE!


This page catalogs price predictions on gold and silver prices from top pundits and prognosticators – a casting of the runes that begins in January and is updated regularly as new additions surface.

[LINK]

We invite your bookmark. We invite your return visit.

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USAGOLD – Quality service and pricing since 1973

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USAGOLD ranks among the most reputable gold companies in the United States with several thousand clients and multi-millions in annual revenue. Founded in the 1970s and still family-owned, we are one of the oldest and most respected names in the gold industry. Our unblemished, zero-complaints record and solid reviews with the Better Business Bureau testify to the exceptional customer service and professional excellence which sets us apart from the competition.

USAGOLD specializes in gold and silver coins and bullion delivered to our client’s safekeeping. For over 45 years, we have resolutely advocated owning precious metals for asset preservation purposes rather than speculation. Admittedly, this philosophy does not resonate with all prospective gold and silver owners, but if it does with you, we think you will find our firm a kindred spirit.

When it comes time to pursue your first (or next) purchase, we invite you to learn first-hand why so many have chosen USAGOLD as their precious metals firm.

Call or drop us an e-mail.

1-800-869-5115
Ext#100
orderdesk@usagold.com


To end right, start right.

Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD – reliably serving physical gold and silver investors since 1973.

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A USAGOLD Special Report

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CHART STUDY

Toward a better understanding
of the U.S. national debt . . .
and its consequences

“As of Friday, April 12, 2019, the national debt stood at $22,027,837,127,788.04 – $966 billion higher than a year ago, $2.081 trillion higher than when Donald Trump took office January 20, 2017, and nearly double where it was ten years ago. It is no doubt much higher now than it was then as that is the nature of the national debt. It always grows. It never shrinks. And that has consequences for the country and for you as an investor.”

–– Full Study ––

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USAGOLD Special Report

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Bridging the ‘Fourth Turning’ with Gold
It began in 2008.  It is scheduled to end in 2028.
What happens between now and then?

“Howe designates 2008 as the start date for the current fourth turning. Since turnings typically last 20-23 years, it will end sometime between 2028 and 2031. That puts us about midway through the cycle. At the moment, if the politicians, Wall Street and press accounts on the status of the economy are to be believed, the good times have arrived. For many Americans, though, that arrival has some pretty dark clouds hanging over it – the deep political divisions, the escalating trade wars, the emerging nation debt and currency crisis, the overvalued stock market, the threat of rising interest rates – and that is just a sampling of fourth-turning strata that worries global investors. The nation despite the rosy outlook is a bit unnerved by it all. For his part, Howe, who saw it coming, believes things could get much worse before before they get better.”

–– Full Article ––

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Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“For more than a year now, I have been very concerned about an impending crisis in the financial markets and decided to diversify into gold coins. Thus, I visited a couple of high profile online-coin shops/discount dealers which advertise extensively over the internet and was immediately overwhelmed by the confusion and large spread in prices for the same coin. I also noticed that the BBB reviews of these firms were far from stellar with complaints about quality of the merchandise, spotted and/or marked coins, incomplete orders with substituted items, etc.

Since I was interested in a large order of several hundreds one-ounce coins, I got really concerned and realized that it is truly a wild world out there in the gold coin business. I needed to look for a trustworthy firm and went to the BBB. I immediately found USAGOLD which had received an A+ rating and had ZERO consumer complaint. I got in touch with Jonathan Kosares who immediately inspired me confidence.

I explained to him that I am a “safe-haven” investor not interested in a collection of exotic rare coins but rather in a Krugerrand-type of investment which ensures liquidity and price appreciation. After numerous phone conversations, Jonathan got a better understanding of my investment goals and slowly directed me towards pre-1933 certified coins which had added premiums currently at historic lows. He also explained to me, referring to the graphs on the USAGOLD website, that these premiums can typically reach values 2 to 3 times that of the underlying gold itself in times of financial crisis!

For someone like me, concerned by an impending meltdown of the markets, this was an ‘Eureka’ moment. Jonathan had truly identified – better than I could articulate myself – my investment goals. So far this year, I have made two purchases, the last one being very significant. Throughout, service was impeccable, delivery was fast and the coins were exactly as described. I could not be happier and I am looking forward to more purchases in the future, assuming the financial markets still hold…”

Scorecard: 38 45 48 53 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Short and Sweet

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Worry about the return ‘of’ your money,
not just the return ‘on’ it

“To be fair, the fiscal side of our current system has been nonexistent. We’re not all dead, but Keynes certainly is. Until governments can spend money and replace the animal spirits lacking in the private sector, then the Monopoly board and meager credit growth shrinks as a future deflationary weapon. But investors should not hope unrealistically for deficit spending any time soon. To me, that means at best, a ceiling on risk asset prices (stocks, high yield bonds, private equity, real estate) and at worst, minus signs at year’s end that force investors to abandon hope for future returns compared to historic examples. Worry for now about the return ‘of’ your money, not the return ‘on’ it. Our Monopoly-based economy requires credit creation and if it stays low, the future losers will grow in number.”

Bond-fund guru Bill Gross posted that piece of advice in his Investment Outlook column back in 2016.  It still applies today – maybe even more so now than it did then. In the wealth game, emphasize defense when you need to, offense when it makes sense. At all times, remain diversified. And by that, we mean real diversification in the form of physical gold and silver coins and/or bullion outside the current fiat money system. There is nothing wrong with owning stocks and bonds. Realize though that these assets are denominated in the domestic currency.  If it erodes in value, the underlying value of those assets erodes along with it.  A proper diversification addresses that problem now and in the future.  Bill Gross, by the way, has recommended buying gold on a number of occasions over the years.

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Favorite web pages

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NEWS & VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals

May issue released today.
New visitor? We invite you to sign-up to receive our newsletter monthly at no cost or obligation.

This month’s issue is timely.  It explores John Exter’s Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity as it relates to gold, why a 60%-65% stock market loss would be run-of-the-mill, and more. 



The contemporary, web-based version of our client letter traces its beginnings to the early 1990s as a hard-copy newsletter mailed to our clientele. Its principal objectives have always been the same – to keep our clients informed on important developments in the gold market, condense the available gold-based news and opinion into a brief, readable digest, and to counter the traditional anti-gold bias in the mainstream media. That formula has won it a five-figure subscription base. In addition to our regular newsletters, we occasionally publish in-depth special reports that focus on events and developments of interest to gold owners. Valued for their insight, accuracy and reliability, our publications are linked and reprinted by a large number of websites both in the United States and around the globe.

FREE SUBSCRIPTION SIGN UP • • • ARCHIVE
We invite your visit.  We encourage your bookmark.

USAGOLD’s
Monthly Client Letter
Sign-up today to make sure you receive the upcoming issue.

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Gold speculators increased their bullish bets for a 2nd week

Through Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold speculators increased their bullish bets for a 2nd week

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lifted their bullish bets higher in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 75,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 7th. This was a weekly gain of 9,192 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,219 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 8,526 contracts to a weekly total of 185,801 contracts while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -666 contracts for the week to a total of 110,390 contracts.

The net speculative position got a boost for a second straight week and has now risen to the best level in the past four weeks. Overall, gold speculator sentiment has remained positive since late October save for one bearish week in mid-January. Gold bets have fared much better than silver and copper which are both in bearish positions currently.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -96,359 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -8,047 contracts from the total net of -88,312 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1285.60 which was a fall of $-0.10 from the previous close of $1285.70, according to unofficial market data.


Silver speculators lowered their bets into bearish territory this week

 

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators dropped their bets back into a bearish position in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 7th. This was a weekly lowering of -3,093 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,136 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 226 contracts to a weekly total of 77,346 contracts compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which increased by 3,319 contracts for the week to a total of 78,303 contracts.

The net speculative position dipped back into a bearish position after a small rise into a bullish level last week. This was the second time in the past three weeks that bets having fallen into bearish territory.

Speculator sentiment has declined quickly after having spent nineteen straight weeks in bullish territory from December 11th through April 16th. The net position had reached a high of +58,313 contracts as recently as February 26th.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -16,659 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 4,701 contracts from the total net of -21,360 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1492.60 which was a shortfall of $-5.80 from the previous close of $1498.40, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index speculators trim bullish bets

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators slightly cut back on their bullish bets in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 28,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday May 7th. This was a weekly decline of -716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,949 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position dropping by -4,310 contracts that overcame a decline in the gross bearish position which decreased by -3,594 contracts for the week.

The net speculative position has now fallen for the third time in the past four weeks. The speculator sentiment has slid slightly lower over the past few months and is below the +30,000 contract level for an eighth straight week after previously staying above this threshold for thirty-two straight weeks.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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Short and Sweet

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Doomsday prep for the super-rich



“Survivalism, the practice of preparing for a crackup of civilization, tends to evoke a certain picture: the woodsman in the tinfoil hat, the hysteric with the hoard of beans, the religious doomsayer. But in recent years survivalism has expanded to more affluent quarters, taking root in Silicon Valley and New York City, among technology executives, hedge-fund managers, and others in their economic cohort.” – Evan Osnos, The New Yorker

Everyday on this page we report on the reasons why gold ownership makes a great deal of sense to ordinary investors.  In doing so, we have always taken exception to the mainstream media’s portrayal of the ordinary gold owner as “the woodsman in the tinfoil hat”. . . etc.  I would think that many among the media are utterly amazed that people like Steve Huffman (Reddit, CEO), Peter Thiel (PayPal founder) and the long roster of other luminaries mentioned in this New Yorker article are identified as “preppers” in one capacity or another.

They would probably be even more amazed to find that a good many of this same group are likely to be gold and silver owners as well. As such, they take their place alongside a wide range of Americans who own gold – physicians and dentists, nurses and teachers, plumbers, carpenters and building contractors, business owners, attorneys, engineers and university professors (to name a few.)  We know because that is the description of our clientele. In other words, gold ownership is pretty much a Main Street endeavor. One Gallup poll a few years back found that 34% of American investors rated gold the best investment “regardless of gender, age, income or party ID. . .” In that survey, investors rated gold higher than stocks, bonds, real estate and bank savings.

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What you need to know before you launch your gold and silver IRA

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“A customer of mine who is 55 years old recently asked if it was not too late for him to get into precious metals. The answer is no—it is not too late to invest in gold and make a profit at any age. Quite the contrary, with the market showing the early signs of a correction, it is, in my humble opinion, a perfect time to invest in precious metals.” – Oliver Garret, Forbes

Time to diversify?
How to hedge market uncertainty in your
retirement plan with gold and silver

As the ultimate asset preservation vehicles, gold and silver are also important retirement investments especially in these precarious times. Find safe harbor –– and some retirement peace of mind.

To end right, start right.
Choose the right portfolio mix with the right firm at the right price.
Choose USAGOLD serving gold and silver investors since 1973

We have helped hundreds of investors include precious metals in
their IRA and other retirement plans. We can help you.


Coins & bullion since 1973

1-800-869-5115
Ext#100

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A telephone call from an old client and friend

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‘Gold shone with the placid certainty of received tradition’

“I had the happy occasion recently of receiving a telephone call from an old client and friend – a physician safely retired near the sea and alongside one of the South’s oldest golf clubs. It was good to hear from this student of the markets – one of life’s steady and thoughtful practitioners.  Back at the turn of the century, Doc foresaw much of what would happen economically in the United States and purchased what he considered enough gold to see him through it.”

[For the rest of Doc’s story we invite you to visit this link.]

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Short and Sweet

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The inverted yield curve as a harbinger
of higher gold prices

(Grey vertical bars indicate recessions.)

During the course of the past several weeks, we have heard much about the inverted yield curve in three-month and ten-year Treasuries as a harbinger of recessions. Missed in the press reports is the fact that it has also been a harbinger of higher gold prices. In the chart above, please note the upward surges in the price of gold in the five-year periods following the two most recent yield inversions in 2000 and 2006.  The first occurred with gold trading in the $300 range.  It subsequently rose to the $600-650 level in 2006.  The second occurred with gold priced in the $600-650 range.  It subsequently rose to over $1900 per ounce in 2011 – its all-time high.

“Ominously,” writes Robin Wigglesworth and Joe Rennison in a recent Financial Times editorial, “the US yield curve has now inverted once again, with the 10-year Treasury yield on March 22 dipping below the three-month T-bill yield for the first time since 2007. Combined with the length of the post-crisis expansion — this summer it will become the longest growth spurt in US history — and deteriorating economic data, the inverted yield curve has stirred fears that the countdown to the next downturn has already begun.”

Peter Fisher, formerly head of fixed income at BlackRock and currently a professor at Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, puts it succinctly in that same Financial Times editorial.  “The mistake,” he says, “is to think it [an inverted yield curve] is a predictor of recessions. I think it causes recessions.”  The rise in the price of gold following the two prior instances of yield inversion, it is now well understood, came in response to aggressive central bank monetary easing and the sudden emergence of credit-related systemic risks.

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USAGOLD Special Report

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The $12 trillion federal debt bombshell
“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy
this looming mountain of Treasuries”


In a recent Financial Times editorial, Gillian Tett, who rose to prominence for her coverage of the 2008 financial crisis, raised the question of financing the U.S. debt. Headlined America faces a battle to find buyers for its bonds, her article begins by referencing a letter to Secretary Mnuchin from Beth Hammack, a Goldman Sachs banker who also chairs the Treasury Bond Advisory Committee. The letter, she says, contains a bombshell . . .

[LINK]

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Short and Sweet

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A very old yet very new thought
from Mr. Charles Dickens

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.” – Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities (1859)

Things change little.  Things change a great deal.  The opening passage to A Tale of Two Cities – a very old yet very new thought.

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Historic U.S. $20 Gold Pieces
A solid hedge and  potential profit-maker under a variety of economic scenarios

Here at USAGOLD, we see 19th and 20th century-minted U.S. $20 gold pieces as a “diversification within a diversification” – something to augment the overall gold portfolio and provide an investor the opportunity for premium gains above and beyond what an ordinary investment in gold bullion coins might provide.

[An In-Depth USAGOLD Client Alert]

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BlackSwansYellowGold
Gold as the portfolio choice for all seasons

Deflation • Disinflation • Stagflation • Hyperinflation

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” – Aldous Huxley

Though Huxley’s observation is readily applied to humanity collectively, it does not apply so easily to individual investors. As justification, we offer the ongoing (and long-term) success of the USAGOLD website as well as the soaring statistics on the growth of private gold ownership over the past decade both in the United States and abroad, inspired directly by the lessons learned over the past decade of financial market upheaval. The following short essays are dedicated to the safe-haven gold investor who, like noted financial author Nicholas Taleb, believes that it is just as important to prepare for what we cannot foresee as what we can.

BlackSwansYellowGold Series
Gold as a deflation hedge
Gold as a disinflation hedge
Gold as a stagflation hedge
Gold as hyperinflation hedge
Gold as the portfolio choice for all seasons
A chronology of panics, mania, crashes and collapses
(400 BC to present)

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Historic World Gold Coins
O
ne of the great, largely untouched and potentially lucrative
opportunities in the field of gold investing today

There are four ways in which the investor might benefit from owning these items beyond our standard recommendation of precious metals primarily as a store of value and for asset preservation purposes.

[An In-Depth USAGOLD Client Alert]

 

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Gold Classics Library

Britain’s Gold Sales ‘a Reckless Act’
(Sir Peter Tapsell’s speech before the House of Commons, June 16, 1999, on the partial sale of United Kingdom’s gold reserves)

We do not update our Gold Classics Library often, but when we do we try to choose items that have a timeless quality.  This latest selection certainly meets that standard. It comes to us unexpectedly as a by-product of research for the recently published article, The Power of Gold Diversification, and with the kind permission of the United Kingdom Parliamentary Archives.

Many associate Britain’s sale of nearly 60% of its gold reserves in 1999 with the beginnings of gold’s secular bull market. The government’s rationale for the sale, as explained by then Economic Secretary to the Treasury Patricia Hewitt, was to “achieve a better balance” in its reserves by going to foreign currencies.  Sir Peter Tapsell took the opposite tack.  “The Chancellor [of the Exchequer] may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist’s stone,” he argued, “but his dollars, yen and euros will not always glitter in a storm and they will never be mistaken for gold.”

History’s indisputable verdict is that Tapsell was correct and the British government wrong.  The ensuing nearly two decades featured a global financial crisis, low-to-zero-percent interest rates, scrambling central banks, and the consistent depreciation of global currencies against gold. Currencies did not glitter in the storm, and they could not have been mistaken for gold which rose relentlessly from $287 per ounce at the time of his speech to the current price of over $1300 (at one point reaching almost $1900 per ounce in 2011).  Though his speech before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.

[LINK]

[Gold Classics Library Index]

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The USAGOLD Website – A guiding light for current and would-be clientele since 1997

Welcome newcomers!

When the USAGOLD website was established in 1997, there was no Google, no Facebook, no I-Tunes, no Amazon. Instead there was just a handful of scattered websites trying to figure what this new technology was all about and how it could be used to some advantage.  We were among that group.  Our idea of innovation in those early days was two spinning globes on either side of the USAGOLD logo.  We marveled at it; considered it state of the art.  If you would like to witness that piece of technology in action, you can see it here at the WaybackMachine.  (Don’t laugh.)

But being among the first on the internet to have spinning globes was not our only achievement. We were also among the first to sponsor a Daily Market Report (1996), a Discussion Group (1997), Live Prices and Charts (2007) and a Mobile Website (2011) – to mention just a few of our ground-breaking internet ventures.  We await the next wave of innovation so that we can offer even more value to our regular visitors.

Through our 22-year presence on the world wide web, the philosophy underlying our website has always been a simple one – to act as a guiding light for our current and prospective clientele by providing a state of the art information portal coupled with a reliable and competitive brokerage service.  We had and still have no aspirations beyond that, and that pinpoint focus has paid dividends beyond anything we would have imagined in 1996.

From a humble beginning (When you visit the WayBackMachine, take special note of the number of visitors registered on our counter!) we have grown to over 600,000 visitors per month currently and there have been times when that count has been significantly higher. USAGOLD today remains one of the most highly referenced and visited web portals in the gold business. We once had a client tell us of visiting the Gold Souk in Dubai and being surprised that so many merchant stalls had USAGOLD on their computer screens. 

If you would like to gain a better understanding of what USAGOLD has to offer to you as a current or prospective client, the menu at the top of the page is good place to start.  For a full site outline including links and page descriptions. . . . . .

We invite you to visit our
Table of Contents

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Short and Sweet

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Is Buffett wrong about gold?

“While I very often agree with Warren Buffett’s views regarding, for example, the level of cash in portfolio or migration from growth to value stocks,” says Independent Trader for ETF Trends, “I absolutely can not agree with what he wrote in the letter to shareholders about gold, once again showing how badly it performs in comparison to the US shares.” The article goes on from there to do a good job of debunking Buffett’s latest attack on gold  – one of many he has conducted over the years – while drawing on cyclical analysis to lay out a solid longer-term future for the metal. It concludes with the opinion that Buffett’s stance on gold is “part of a deal with the establishment of the United States.”

That could be true, but it could also be little more than an old professional bias on Buffett’s part going back decades combined with a classic talking of one’s book.  We counter with a single chart that refutes his arguments at a glance. It tells the story of gold and stocks in the times in which we live – the historically distinct fiat money era that began in 1971 – not some other timeline that carries little relationship to the present.  To make a very long story short, gold has appreciated 3,399% since January 1971. Stocks have appreciated 2,884%.  What’s more stocks are bumping against all time highs while gold looks like it might be recovering from cyclical lows.

Chart courtesy of MacroTrends

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Short and Sweet

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Will 2019 be the year of the big breakout for gold?

“In each of the last three years, gold has gotten off to a strong start only to fizzle as the year moved along.  Will 2019 be the year gold finally breaks the pattern? A good many investors, fund managers and analysts think that 2019 might very well be the year when gold breaks the restraints and pushes to higher ground.  One of those is Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro in New York who CNBC’s Melissa Lee refers to as “the chart master.”  In a recent interview with Lee, Worth referred to a rendition of the long-term chart below saying that there is “a well-defined set-up and a lot of tension.” He says that combination is going to resolve to the upside – “a breakout to all-time highs.” With respect to gold’s relationship to the dollar, Worth says “Gold’s got its own momentum now. . .It is all setting-up for higher gold prices and trouble for equities, trouble for the economy.”

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Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

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Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“Thank you so much for your high rating for USAGOLD, Denver. They were recommended by a close friend and I researched them on your website in Oct 2009 and have been in touch with them ever since. I am now in full trust with their extraordinary business of great integrity and expertise. I will always deal with them . . Again, thank you for your expert ratings.” – Elan C.

Scorecard: 38 45 48 53 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

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Gold spec bets rebound this week as shorts pull back

Through Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Charts and commentary courtesy of CountingPips.com
Tables courtesy of GoldSeek

Note: Commitment of Traders reports are published Friday with data from the previous Tuesday.


Gold spec bets rebound this week as shorts pull back

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators raised their bullish net positions this week in the Gold futures markets after a couple of down weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 66,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 30th. This was a weekly rise of 28,824 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,395 net contracts.

The week’s net position was primarily the result of the shorts (gross bearish position) pulling back on their bets by -28,240 contracts this week to a total of 111,056 contracts. The longs (gross bullish position), meanwhile, only increased their bullish bets by 584 contracts to a weekly total of 177,275 contracts.

The net speculative position had declined for two straight weeks and for three out of the past four weeks before this week’s rebound. The current standing for speculator sentiment is now at the highest level of the past three weeks and has remained in an overall bullish position for twenty-four straight weeks.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -88,312 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -30,916 contracts from the total net of -57,396 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1285.70 which was an uptick of $12.50 from the previous close of $1273.20, according to unofficial market data.


Silver spec bets edge up into a small bullish position

 

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators lifted their net positions in the Silver futures markets this week into a small bullish position after declining in the previous four weeks, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 2,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 30th. This was a weekly rise of 2,246 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) advancing by 1,231 contracts to a weekly total of 77,120 contracts in addition to the gross bearish position (shorts) which declined by -1,015 contracts for the week to a total of 74,984 contracts.

The net speculative position had fallen for four straight weeks and in seven out of the previous eight weeks before this week’s slight rebound. Silver bets are now back into a small bullish level after dipping into bearish territory last week for the first time in twenty weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -21,360 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -1,368 contracts from the total net of -19,992 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1498.40 which was an uptick of $19.30 from the previous close of $1479.10, according to unofficial market data.


US Dollar Index bets edge higher

 

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators added to their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 28,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday April 30th. This was a weekly gain of 194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,755 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position gaining by 2,040 contracts to a weekly total of 51,212 contracts and outnumbered the gross bearish position total of 22,263 contracts that increased by 1,846 contracts for the week.

The net speculative position edged a bit higher this week after having declined in the previous two weeks. The current speculator sentiment remains firmly bullish although the overall position has now been under the +30,000 net contract level for seven consecutive weeks. Previously, the net positioning had stayed above this threshold for thirty-two straight weeks through March 12th.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
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The Power of Gold Diversification
“Although it is needed in good times,
it can be vital when times are difficult.”

Enlarged version at link

This short article begins with reference to a speech by Sir Peter Tapsell on the merits of gold ownership before the House of Commons in 1999. The occasion was Britain’s proposed sale of over half of its gold reserves at under $300 per ounce. It ends by comparing the performance of two investment portfolios from the time of that speech to present.  One portfolio – the more successful of the two – included a diversification with gold; the other did not. Sir Tapsell, who passed away this past August, lived to see his defense of gold vindicated. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.

[LINK]

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