Author Archives: USAGOLD

Gold trades lower on Friday the thirteenth

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Friday the thirteenth. . . . . .Gold is trading at the $1242 mark this morning (down $4.00) after having gotten as low as $1238 in European markets. Which way it will break from here remains an open question as the annual summer slowdown lingers, commodities continue to track lower, and the dollar, at least for now, reigns supreme in currency markets. In its market report this morning, Investing.com poses an interesting scenario, “Interestingly, Asian and European stocks were mostly higher today as investors yet again attempted to shrug off trade tensions. Could markets be turning increasingly numb to global trade developments? This may be the question of the quarter if stock markets and riskier assets continue to push higher despite trade tensions escalating.” And, by the way, if the one asset that should be flourishing in this environment continues to languish . . . .

With that thought we will leave you for the week and alert you that we will be posting only intermittently for the next couple of weeks as we move to a mid-summer schedule.

Quote of the Day
“Buying gold today is a statement that you believe that global economic events may spiral out of the control of Central Bankers. It is insurance against some sort of massive monetary policy mistake that cannot be fixed without re-conceptualizing the global economic regime – hyperinflation in a developed nation, the collapse of the Euro, something like that – not an expression of a commonly shared belief in some inherent value of gold.. . . . The stronger the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence, the more likely it is that the price of gold goes down. The weaker the Narrative – the less established the Common Knowledge that central bank policy determines market outcomes – the more likely it is that the price of gold will go up. In other words, it’s not central bank policy per se that makes the price of gold go up or down, it’s Common Knowledge regarding the ability of central banks to control economic outcomes that makes the price of gold go up or down.” – W. Ben Hunt, Epsilon Theory

Chart of the Day

Chart note: There is much concern about the flattening yield curve, i.e., the convergence of rates in various U.S. sovereign debt instruments and what it might portend for the future. In pulling together the data for these charts, we could not help but take special note of the two previous occasions in which there was a similar convergence – in 2000 just before and during the bursting of the dotcom bubble and in 2007-2008 just before and during the Bear Sterns/Lehman Brothers’ implosions. Both breakdowns, by the way, occurred coincident with an upswing in interest rates.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–Gold trades lower on Friday the thirteenth

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Friday the thirteenth. . . . . .Gold is trading at the $1242 mark this morning (down $4.00) after having gotten as low as $1238 in European markets.  Which way it will break from here remains an open question as the annual summer slowdown lingers, commodities continue to track lower, and the dollar, at least for now, reigns supreme in currency markets. In its market report this morning, Investing.com poses an interesting scenario, “Interestingly, Asian and European stocks were mostly higher today as investors yet again attempted to shrug off trade tensions. Could markets be turning increasingly numb to global trade developments? This may be the question of the quarter if stock markets and riskier assets continue to push higher despite trade tensions escalating.”  And, by the way,  if the one asset that should be flourishing in this environment continues to languish . . . .

With that thought we will leave you for the week and alert you that we will be posting only intermittently for the next couple of weeks as we move to a mid-summer schedule. 

Quote of the Day
“Buying gold today is a statement that you believe that global economic events may spiral out of the control of Central Bankers. It is insurance against some sort of massive monetary policy mistake that cannot be fixed without re-conceptualizing the global economic regime – hyperinflation in a developed nation, the collapse of the Euro, something like that – not an expression of a commonly shared belief in some inherent value of gold.. . . . The stronger the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence, the more likely it is that the price of gold goes down. The weaker the Narrative – the less established the Common Knowledge that central bank policy determines market outcomes – the more likely it is that the price of gold will go up.  In other words, it’s not central bank policy per se that makes the price of gold go up or down, it’s Common Knowledge regarding the ability of central banks to control economic outcomes that makes the price of gold go up or down.” – W. Ben Hunt, Epsilon Theory

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  There is much concern about the flattening yield curve, i.e., the convergence of rates in various U.S. sovereign debt instruments and what it might portend for the future.  In pulling together the data for these charts, we could not help but take special note of the two previous occasions in which there was a similar convergence – in 2000 just before and during the bursting of the dotcom bubble and in 2007-2008 just before and during the Bear Sterns/Lehman Brothers’ implosions. Both breakdowns, by the way, occurred coincident with an upswing in interest rates.

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold shifts to higher ground, real rate of return goes negative on U.S. government paper

Gold shifted to higher ground this morning after the government released its latest consumer price report which showed inflation pushing the 3% mark – a rate that puts the real rate of return on government paper in negative territory, even the 30-year bond. Such stirrings are the sort of thing that can motivate a shift in investor perceptions – with commodities and gold being among the usual beneficiaries in a negative return environment. Today’s inflation number might mark something of a turning point in that regard, particularly when you take into consideration that sentiment favors rising inflation as a probable outcome of the trade war. As it stands, gold is up $4 on the day at $1247 and silver is up 12¢ at $15.94.

Quote of the Day
“Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette – and calling it by some alternative ‘low risk’ game.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Chart of the Day

Chart note: Few correlations in the financial markets ring truer and more consistently than the one between the federal debt and gold. That relationship between the two is about as fundamental as it gets. For those with capital preservation as the goal, gold has been a stalwart and productive ally since the United States went off the gold standard in 1971 and launched the era of fiat money, federal deficits and the massive federal debt. As for the future, we should keep in mind that the very same conditions which created the long-term secular trend for both the national debt and gold are still in place today – nothing has changed fundamentally. As long as that is the case, we can assume gold will continue to attract capital as a long-term portfolio hedge just as it has, to varying degrees, through the first 47 years of the fiat money system. Please note, too, that gold is trading below the federal debt’s trend line, an indication that it might have some catching up to do in the months and years ahead.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–Gold shifts to higher ground, real rate of return goes negative on U.S. government paper

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold shifted to higher ground this morning after the government released its latest consumer price report which showed inflation pushing the 3% mark – a rate that puts the real rate of return on government paper in negative territory, even the 30-year bond.  Such stirrings are the sort of thing that can motivate a shift in investor perceptions – with commodities and gold being among the usual beneficiaries in a negative return environment. Today’s inflation number might mark something of a turning point in that regard, particularly when you take into consideration that sentiment favors rising inflation as a probable outcome of the trade war.   As it stands, gold is up $4 on the day at $1247 and silver is up 12¢ at $15.94.

Quote of the Day
“Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette – and calling it by some alternative ‘low risk’ game.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Chart of the Day

Chart note: Few correlations in the financial markets ring truer and more consistently than the one between the federal debt and gold. That relationship between the two is about as fundamental as it gets. For those with capital preservation as the goal, gold has been a stalwart and productive ally since the United States went off the gold standard in 1971 and launched the era of fiat money, federal deficits and the massive federal debt. As for the future, we should keep in mind that the very same conditions which created the long-term secular trend for both the national debt and gold are still in place today – nothing has changed fundamentally. As long as that is the case, we can assume gold will continue to attract capital as a long-term portfolio hedge just as it has, to varying degrees, through the first 47 years of the fiat money system. Please note, too, that gold is trading below the federal debt’s trend line, an indication that it might have some catching up to do in the months and years ahead.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, Today's top gold news and opinion |

Traders hammer gold back to December levels

DAILY MARKET REPORT – AFTERNOON UPDATE

Traders hammered gold back to last December’s levels as commodities across the board took a hit on elevated concerns about a heavy escalation in the trade war between the United States and China. Bloomberg is reporting that China-US trade talks have ground to a complete halt.  Stocks markets across the globe also took a hit with the Dow finishing down 219 on the day.  The yuan, which has led currencies lower against the dollar over the past few days, finished at its lowest level since late 2016. Gold finished the day down $14 at $1242. Silver was down 21¢ at $15.79.

In a Reuters report this afternoon, William Rhind, chief executive officer at fund manager GraniteShares Inc, took a longer term view: “At the moment,” he said, “the positive inflationary pressures caused by trade tariffs are being beaten back by dollar strength. As the tariffs take hold and the market adjusts to the effects, we expect inflationary pressures to increase, which will benefit holders of gold and commodities.” Pushed to background today, producer prices logged a 3.4% gain led by rising oil and gasoline prices. Tomorrow we have the consumer price index report. MK

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Posted in dailyquotes |

Traders hammer gold back to December levels

DAILY MARKET REPORT – AFTERNOON UPDATE

Traders hammered gold back to last December’s levels as commodities across the board took a hit on elevated concerns about a heavy escalation in the trade war between the United States and China. Bloomberg is reporting that China-US trade talks have ground to a complete halt.  Stocks markets across the globe also took a hit with the Dow finishing down 219 on the day.  The yuan, which has led currencies lower against the dollar over the past few days, finished at its lowest level since late 2016. Gold finished the day down $14 at $1242. Silver was down 21¢ at $15.79.

In a Reuters report this afternoon, William Rhind, chief executive officer at fund manager GraniteShares Inc, took a longer term view: “At the moment,” he said, “the positive inflationary pressures caused by trade tariffs are being beaten back by dollar strength. As the tariffs take hold and the market adjusts to the effects, we expect inflationary pressures to increase, which will benefit holders of gold and commodities.” Pushed to background today, producer prices logged a 3.4% gain led by rising oil and gasoline prices. Tomorrow we have the consumer price index report. MK

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold drops with rest of commodities complex, producer prices signal possible inflationary trend

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold dropped in early trading today in sympathy with the rest of the commodities complex. Using the Bloomberg Commodity Index as a reference, raw commodities are down 1.25% as the markets attempt to factor in the impact of the latest round of tariff threats and counter-threats. Gold is down $5 at $1251 and silver is down 10¢ at $15.94. Echoing a theme we raised earlier today (see below), Bloomberg headlines a growing concern that the latest “tariff barrage” will push “China fight to the point of no return.” Meanwhile, the producer price index registered a 3.4% gain over the past 12 months – an indication, when coupled with last month’s 3.1% annualized gain, that an inflationary trend might be in motion. Tomorrow the BLS will release the consumer price index report.

Quote of the Day
“If you could go back to 2007 would you really choose these policies again? Had they been used as short-term shock therapy only, the central bankers might have got away with it. As it is they now made our economies more dysfunctional than ever – and, worse, they can’t find a way out. . .They helped get us into this. They are not having much luck getting us out. But our elected governments have still ceded such enormous power over our financial system to them that we have no choice but to listen to their every word – if we want to have a chance of figuring out how the next (inevitable) crisis will play out, that is. Of all the things that have happened since 2007 that, I think, is the one that makes the least sense of all.” – Merryn Somerset Webb, Editor-in-Chief, Money Week

Chart of the Day

Chart note: Much has been written and said about the lack of volatility in the financial markets over the past couple of years, but the volatility index can change direction abruptly and without notice. A single, negative event can send it soaring. If and when that happens, gold is likely to begin climbing as well as illustrated in the chart. Note how quickly the volatility index bolted higher in the early months of the 2008 financial crisis. Two months later, gold bottomed and began its historic run from the $750 level to nearly $1900 per ounce.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–Gold drops with rest of commodities complex, producer prices signal possible inflationary trend

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold dropped in early trading today in sympathy with the rest of the commodities complex.  Using the Bloomberg Commodity Index as a reference, raw commodities are down 1.25% as the markets attempt to factor in the impact of the latest round of tariff threats and counter-threats.  Gold is down $5 at $1251 and silver is down 10¢ at $15.94. Echoing a theme we raised earlier today (see below), Bloomberg headlines a growing concern that the latest “tariff barrage” will push “China fight to the point of no return.” Meanwhile, the producer price index registered a 3.4% gain over the past 12 months – an indication, when coupled with last month’s 3.1% annualized gain, that an inflationary trend might be in motion.  Tomorrow the  BLS will release the consumer price index report.

Quote of the Day
“If you could go back to 2007 would you really choose these policies again? Had they been used as short-term shock therapy only, the central bankers might have got away with it. As it is they now made our economies more dysfunctional than ever – and, worse, they can’t find a way out. . .They helped get us into this. They are not having much luck getting us out. But our elected governments have still ceded such enormous power over our financial system to them that we have no choice but to listen to their every word – if we want to have a chance of figuring out how the next (inevitable) crisis will play out, that is. Of all the things that have happened since 2007 that, I think, is the one that makes the least sense of all.” – Merryn Somerset Webb, Editor-in-Chief, Money Week

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  Much has been written and said about the lack of volatility in the financial markets over the past couple of years, but the volatility index can change direction abruptly and without notice. A single, negative event can send it soaring. If and when that happens, gold is likely to begin climbing as well as illustrated in the chart. Note how quickly the volatility index bolted higher in the early months of the 2008 financial crisis. Two months later, gold bottomed and began its historic run from the $750 level to nearly $1900 per ounce.

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Posted in Daily Market Report |

Gold recovers from $1248 low in European trading, awaiting producer and consumer price reports

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold is down $4.50 on the day at $1254 after dipping below the $1250 level for the second time since this latest break began in early June. Gold turned around sharply during European trading hours after hitting a low of $1248. Silver is trading at $16.03 and down 7¢ on the day. Trading in both metals is irresolute and lacks clear direction – in short a typical day in the annual summer doldrums. It looks like short-sellers are looking to reverse their positions on dips at or below the $1250 level and may be a sign that the price has reached a bottom. Too, the precious metals could simply be in a wait and see mode with producer prices out tomorrow and consumer prices Thursday.

Quote of the Day
“I’m in the inflation camp. I think it’s coming. I have thought this for a while. People have looked all over for it as if looking for a lost sock or a hairpin: Where did it go? Where is that thing? But I do believe that the central bankers who have been kind of begging for inflation will be surprised at the generosity of the inflation gods over what they will ultimately be handed.” – James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Chart of the Day

Chart note: Since 1971, the year the United States went off the gold standard, freed the dollar to float against other national currencies and ushered in the fiat dollar international monetary system, gold has appreciated over 3000%. In “Essay on the Coinage of Money” (1526), Conpernicus, the famed astronomer, noted: “Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms, principalities, and republics, the four most important (in my judgment) are dissension, [abnormal] mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once, but gradually and in a certain covert manner.” Today gold protects its owners against the nemesis of currency debasement as it has over the centuries and during the Copernicus’ times.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–Gold recovers from $1248 low in European trading, awaiting producer and consumer price reports

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold is down $4.50 on the day at $1254 after dipping below the $1250 level for the second time since this latest break began in early June. Gold turned around sharply during European trading hours after hitting a low of $1248.  Silver is trading at $16.03 and down 7¢ on the day. Trading in both metals is irresolute and lacks clear direction – in short a typical day in the annual summer doldrums. It looks like short-sellers are looking to reverse their positions on dips at or below the $1250 level and may be a sign that the price has reached a bottom.  Too, the precious metals could simply be in a wait and see mode with producer prices out tomorrow and consumer prices Thursday.

Quote of the Day
“I’m in the inflation camp. I think it’s coming. I have thought this for a while. People have looked all over for it as if looking for a lost sock or a hairpin: Where did it go? Where is that thing? But I do believe that the central bankers who have been kind of begging for inflation will be surprised at the generosity of the inflation gods over what they will ultimately be handed.” – James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  Since 1971, the year the United States went off the gold standard, freed the dollar to float against other national currencies and ushered in the fiat dollar international monetary system, gold has appreciated over 3000%. In “Essay on the Coinage of Money” (1526), Conpernicus, the famed astronomer, noted: “Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms, principalities, and republics, the four most important (in my judgment) are dissension, [abnormal] mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once, but gradually and in a certain covert manner.” Today gold protects its owners against the nemesis of currency debasement as it has over the centuries and during the Copernicus’ times.

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Posted in Daily Market Report, Today's top gold news and opinion |

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DMR–Gold jumps on North Korea tensions, possible trade war escalation

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold is moving higher in international markets this morning.  According to a Reuters report from London, the upside is the result of investors covering short positions.  That short covering, which began in Asia overnight and carried over to European trading, is likely the result of rekindled tensions with North Korea and the escalating trade war between the United States and China.  Gold is up nearly $11 at $1265.50.  Silver is up 19¢ at $16.22.  A firmer Chinese yuan is also helping gold this morning.

Senator Lindsay Graham yesterday blamed China for the breakdown in talks with North Korea. If he is right, it would represent a rapid and dangerous escalation that puts a whole new twist on the trade war. If China is willing to move its response outside reciprocal tariffs and trade sanctions to the political and military realms, then we are in a whole different ball game than what has already been priced into financial markets. “I see China’s hands all over this,” he told Fox News yesterday. “We’re in a fight with China. We buy $500 billion worth of goods from the Chinese. They buy $100 billion from us. They cheat. President Trump wants to change the economic relationship with China.”

Quote of the Day
“The cost of living has skyrocketed in recent years. Let’s look at the cost of goods in services in terms of a salary earned by a full college professor. In the 1980s, our ‘full professor’ needed to pay almost 15 minutes of his salary to buy one kilogram of beef. Today, in July 2017, our full professor needs to pay the equivalent of 18 hours to buy the same amount of beef. During the 1980s, our full professor needed to pay almost one year’s salary for a new sedan. Today, he must pay the equivalent of 25 years of his salary. In the 1980s, a full professor with his monthly salary could buy 17 basic baskets of essential goods. Today, he can buy just one-quarter of a basic basket. And what about the value of our money? Well, in March 2007, the largest denomination of paper money in Venezuela was the 100 bolivar bill. With it, you could buy 28 US dollars, 288 eggs, or 56 kilograms of rice. Today, you can buy .01 dollars, 0.2 eggs, and 0.08 kilograms of rice. In July 2017, you need five 100-bolivar bills to buy just one egg.” – Timothy D. Terrell, on life in Venezuela (2018)

Chart of the Day

USAGOLD note:  The inflation rate in Venezuela is 24, 571%.

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Posted in Daily Market Report |

Gold jumps on North Korea tensions, possible trade war escalation

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Gold is moving higher in international markets this morning. According to a Reuters report from London, the upside is the result of investors covering short positions. That short covering, which began in Asia overnight and carried over to European trading, is likely the result of rekindled tensions with North Korea and the escalating trade war between the United States and China. Gold is up nearly $11 at $1265.50. Silver is up 19¢ at $16.22. A firmer Chinese yuan is also helping gold this morning.

Senator Lindsay Graham yesterday blamed China for the breakdown in talks with North Korea. If he is right, it would represent a rapid and dangerous escalation that puts a whole new twist on the trade war. If China is willing to move its response outside reciprocal tariffs and trade sanctions to the political and military realms, then we are in a whole different ball game than what has already been priced into financial markets. “I see China’s hands all over this,” he told Fox News yesterday. “We’re in a fight with China. We buy $500 billion worth of goods from the Chinese. They buy $100 billion from us. They cheat. President Trump wants to change the economic relationship with China.”

Quote of the Day
“The cost of living has skyrocketed in recent years. Let’s look at the cost of goods in services in terms of a salary earned by a full college professor. In the 1980s, our ‘full professor’ needed to pay almost 15 minutes of his salary to buy one kilogram of beef. Today, in July 2017, our full professor needs to pay the equivalent of 18 hours to buy the same amount of beef. During the 1980s, our full professor needed to pay almost one year’s salary for a new sedan. Today, he must pay the equivalent of 25 years of his salary. In the 1980s, a full professor with his monthly salary could buy 17 basic baskets of essential goods. Today, he can buy just one-quarter of a basic basket. And what about the value of our money? Well, in March 2007, the largest denomination of paper money in Venezuela was the 100 bolivar bill. With it, you could buy 28 US dollars, 288 eggs, or 56 kilograms of rice. Today, you can buy .01 dollars, 0.2 eggs, and 0.08 kilograms of rice. In July 2017, you need five 100-bolivar bills to buy just one egg.” – Timothy D. Terrell, on life in Venezuela (2018)

Chart of the Day

USAGOLD note: The inflation rate in Venezuela is 24,571%.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

Quiet, sideways day in gold market

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Along with the rest of the markets, it has been a quiet day thus far for gold – down about $1.50 at $1256. Silver is off 8¢ at $16.01. With the collateral effects of the first salvos in the trade war settling in and the dollar taking an abrupt turn to the south, something could develop by the end of the day, even though most market-participants are headed to their favorite summer retreats for the weekend. Still, we will post an update if anything develops.

Quote of the Day
“This is a terrible fiscal situation we’ve got ourselves into. The administration is doing tax cuts and a spending decrease, but he’s doing them in the wrong order. What we need right now is to focus totally on reducing the debt. We’re in a stage where if nothing is changed, we’re about to go from stagnation to stagflation, with a significant rise in inflation and a wholly significant imbalance in the economy, which is very difficult to anticipate at this stage. But the outlook is not exactly terrific.” – Alan Greenspan, 12/2017, CNBC interview

Chart of the Day

Chart note: The St. Louis Federal Reserve recently released this new chart on tax receipts. It shows corporate tax receipts plummeting and taxes on production and imports rising. This might be a new set of circumstances brought about by the Trump administration’s tax cuts and tariff programs. In the aggregate, tax receipts represented by the thick black line are falling at a time when government debt is expected to increase – and by some accounts increase significantly. For a prescient observation as to what all of this might lead to, we refer you to the quote from Mr. Greenspan immediately above. We will be monitoring this new chart at the St. Louis Federal Reserve and updating this report with any significant changes.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–Quiet, sideways day in gold market

DAILY MARKET REPORT

Along with the rest of the markets, it has been a quiet day thus far for gold – down about $1.50 at $1256.  Silver is off 8¢ at $16.01.  With the collateral effects of the first salvos in the trade war settling in and the dollar taking an abrupt turn to the south, something could develop by the end of the day, even though most market-participants are headed to their favorite summer retreats for the weekend. Still, we will post an update if anything develops.

Quote of the Day
“This is a terrible fiscal situation we’ve got ourselves into. The administration is doing tax cuts and a spending decrease, but he’s doing them in the wrong order. What we need right now is to focus totally on reducing the debt. We’re in a stage where if nothing is changed, we’re about to go from stagnation to stagflation, with a significant rise in inflation and a wholly significant imbalance in the economy, which is very difficult to anticipate at this stage. But the outlook is not exactly terrific.” – Alan Greenspan, 12/2017, CNBC interview

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  The St. Louis Federal Reserve recently released this new chart on tax receipts.  It shows corporate tax receipts plummeting and taxes on production and imports rising.  This might be a new set of circumstances brought about by the Trump administration’s tax cuts and tariff programs.  In the aggregate, tax receipts represented by the thick black line are falling at a time when government debt is expected to increase – and by some accounts increase significantly. For a prescient observation as to what all of this might lead to, we refer you to the quote from Mr. Greenspan immediately above.  We will be monitoring this new chart at the St. Louis Federal Reserve and updating this report with any significant changes.

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Invest in gold and silver through a company you can trust

How to choose a gold firm
A quick guideline for beginning investors

It is surprising how many prospective investors simply dive into gold and silver investing without much in the way of a consumer inquiry. That lack of simple due diligence has ended up costing a good many investors thousands of dollars, and sometimes even hundreds of thousands, before the damage is detected.

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DMR–Gold treading water in lethargic post-holiday market

Gold is treading water this morning in a lethargic post-holiday market – unchanged at $1257.50 in FOREX trading.  It moved about $4.50 higher yesterday in overseas markets.  Silver is equally noncommittal this morning at $16.05, down 4¢ on the day.  At this hour, the markets await the release of Fed minutes as if nothing else in the world mattered.

One wonders why the mercurial musings of central bankers on an intrinsically mercurial economy should be seriously factored into the market equation. Nothing – no law, no ethical standard, no top-down directive – can or should prevent any one of the Fed’s governors from changing their minds instantly should it be required.  In fact, nothing says some haven’t changed their minds already. Those minutes were taken nearly a month ago, yet all the world awaits their publication and perhaps even a clue as to what might lie ahead. . . . . . . . .

Quote of the Day
“I spoke to bankers at the time who said that what happened was supposed to be impossible, it was like the tide going out everywhere on Earth simultaneously. People had lived through crises before – the sudden crash of October 1987, the emerging markets crises and the Russian crisis of the 1990s, the dotcom bubble – but what happened in those cases was that capital fled from one place to another. No one had ever lived through, and no one thought possible, a situation where all the credit simultaneously disappeared from everywhere and the entire system teetered on the brink. The first weekend of October 2008 was a point when people at the top of the global financial system genuinely thought, in the words of George W. Bush, ‘This sucker could go down.’ RBS, at one point the biggest bank in the world according to the size of its balance sheet, was within hours of collapsing. And by collapsing I mean cashpoint machines would have stopped working, and insolvencies would have spread from RBS to other banks – and no one alive knows what that would have looked like or how it would have ended.” – John Lanchester, After the Fall

Chart of the Day

Chart note 1: With oil on a tear of late – up 15% in 2018 – we thought it would be a good time to take a look at the gold-oil overlay chart.  The historical association between the two is well-known, but since early May, yellow gold took a turn south while black gold continued to head north.  Oil has clearly outperformed gold since the Fed launched its increased interest rate policy in 2016 – nearly doubling while gold has risen about 25%.  At the same time, the two have tracked higher in tandem though not at the same rate, a departure from the norm leading some to think that perhaps gold is due for a make-up rally.

Chart note 2: On a related note, some wonder why oil and gasoline prices are rising in the United States at a time when domestic production has been hailed as making the country energy independent.  Columbia University’s Jason Bordoff offers an insight on the matter in a recent Financial Times article. “The US still needs OPEC to provide relief on oil prices,” he says. He goes on to explain that in an integrated global market, U.S. prices are still affected by global supply and demand issues regardless of import and export volumes.  In short, the price is determined globally and applied locally – an important factor to keep in mind with respect to the potential for oil-generated inflation both now and in the future.

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Gold treading water in lethargic post-holiday market

Gold is treading water this morning in a lethargic post-holiday market – unchanged at $1257.50 in FOREX trading. It moved about $4.50 higher yesterday in overseas markets. Silver is equally noncommittal this morning at $16.05, down 4¢ on the day. At this hour, the markets await the release of Fed minutes as if nothing else in the world mattered.

One wonders why the mercurial musings of central bankers on an intrinsically mercurial economy should be seriously factored into the market equation. Nothing – no law, no ethical standard, no top-down directive – can or should prevent any one of the Fed’s governors from changing their minds instantly should it be required. In fact, nothing says some haven’t changed their minds already. Those minutes were taken nearly a month ago, yet all the world awaits their publication and perhaps even a clue as to what might lie ahead. . . . . . . . .

Quote of the Day
“I spoke to bankers at the time who said that what happened was supposed to be impossible, it was like the tide going out everywhere on Earth simultaneously. People had lived through crises before – the sudden crash of October 1987, the emerging markets crises and the Russian crisis of the 1990s, the dotcom bubble – but what happened in those cases was that capital fled from one place to another. No one had ever lived through, and no one thought possible, a situation where all the credit simultaneously disappeared from everywhere and the entire system teetered on the brink. The first weekend of October 2008 was a point when people at the top of the global financial system genuinely thought, in the words of George W. Bush, ‘This sucker could go down.’ RBS, at one point the biggest bank in the world according to the size of its balance sheet, was within hours of collapsing. And by collapsing I mean cashpoint machines would have stopped working, and insolvencies would have spread from RBS to other banks – and no one alive knows what that would have looked like or how it would have ended.” – John Lanchester, After the Fall

Chart of the Day

Chart note 1: With oil on a tear of late – up 15% in 2018 – we thought it would be a good time to take a look at the gold-oil overlay chart. The historical association between the two is well-known, but since early May, yellow gold took a turn south while black gold continued to head north. Oil has clearly outperformed gold since the Fed launched its increased interest rate policy in 2016 – nearly doubling while gold has risen about 25%. At the same time, the two have tracked higher in tandem though not at the same rate, a departure from the norm leading some to think that perhaps gold is due for a make-up rally.

Chart note 2: On a related note, some wonder why oil and gasoline prices are rising in the United States at a time when domestic production has been hailed as making the country energy independent. Columbia University’s Jason Bordoff offers an insight on the matter in a recent Financial Times article. “The US still needs OPEC to provide relief on oil prices,” he says. He goes on to explain that in an integrated global market, U.S. prices are still affected by global supply and demand issues regardless of import and export volumes. In short, the price is determined globally and applied locally – an important factor to keep in mind with respect to the potential for oil-generated inflation both now and in the future.

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PBoC clarity on yuan and political resolution in Germany push gold higher

We ended yesterday’s DMR with the observation that much appears to be up in the air as we begin the day, the week and the month. . . .Two of those items came to a resolution overnight bringing clarity and positive consequences to the gold market. This morning gold is up $10.50 at $1253 and silver is up 15¢ at $16.02.

First, and most importantly, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang announced that China would keep its “currency stable and not deploy it as a weapon in the trade conflict with the U.S.,” according to a Bloomberg report. That statement put to rest concerns of a deep and rapid devaluation of the yuan. Second, the ruling political party in Germany seemed to resolve its differences on immigration policies thus stabilizing its government for the time being. The yuan and euro both firmed as a result. The dollar, as a result, went into reverse and gold moved higher

Quote of the Day
“It’s been a while since I’ve covered the precious metals in an article. They’ve been range-bound for much of the past year, with few notable sector developments to report. But I feel compelled to write about them today for two reasons: (1.) The probability of an upwards re-pricing of the precious metals is rising, and (2.) Both gold & silver are quite over-sold right now, technically-speaking. With technical and fundamental indicators flashing green simultaneously like this, now is an advantageous time to consider increasing your PM exposure (I did so myself yesterday).” – Adam Taggart, Peak Prosperity

Chart of the Day

Chart note: This chart shows the gains or losses in gold from the same month a year earlier. Since the Fed began raising interest rates in early 2016, gold has gone higher in 22 out of the past 30 months. That means that you could have purchased gold in any one of those months a year earlier and showed a gain 12 months later, and sometimes that gain was significant – as much as 10% to 22%!

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DMR–PBoC clarity on yuan and political resolution in Germany push gold higher

We ended yesterday’s DMR with the observation that much appears to be up in the air as we begin the day, the week and the month. . . .Two of those items came to a resolution overnight bringing clarity and positive consequences to the gold market. This morning gold is up $10.50 at $1253 and silver is up 15¢ at $16.02.

First, and most importantly, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang announced that China would keep its “currency stable and not deploy it as a weapon in the trade conflict with the U.S.,” according to a Bloomberg report.  That statement put to rest concerns of a deep and rapid devaluation of the yuan. Second, the ruling political party in Germany seemed to resolve its differences on immigration policies thus stabilizing its government for the time being. The yuan and euro both firmed as a result. The dollar, as a result, went into reverse and gold moved higher

Quote of the Day
“It’s been a while since I’ve covered the precious metals in an article. They’ve been range-bound for much of the past year, with few notable sector developments to report. But I feel compelled to write about them today for two reasons: (1.) The probability of an upwards re-pricing of the precious metals is rising, and (2.) Both gold & silver are quite over-sold right now, technically-speaking. With technical and fundamental indicators flashing green simultaneously like this, now is an advantageous time to consider increasing your PM exposure (I did so myself yesterday).” – Adam Taggart, Peak Prosperity

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  This chart shows the gains or losses in gold from the same month a year earlier. Since the Fed began raising interest rates in early 2016, gold has gone higher in 22 out of the past 30 months.  That means that you could have purchased gold in any one of those months a year earlier and showed a gain 12 months later, and sometimes that gain was significant – as much as 10% to 22%!

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

NEWS & VIEWS
Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals
Celebrating our 45th year in the gold business


Reflections in a Golden Eye
SUMMER, 2018

The July issue of News & Views is now out to subscribers. This month we cover a range of interesting gold market topics:

On the law of long-term time preference and gold ownership
On getting out of stocks and into gold
On the huge growth in COMEX gold volumes since 2008
On a Gallup Poll finding that 17% still choose
gold as the best long-term investment

And more. . . . . .

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If you appreciate analysis that is a bit off the beaten track and concentrates on the long term merits of gold and silver ownership, you might appreciate receiving our monthly newsletter on an on-going basis. It is offered free-of-charge as a service to our regular clientele and an incentive to prospective clients.

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DMR–Gold retreats on euro weakness, German government instability

Gold retreated further in early trading today on concerns about stability in Germany’s government that sent the euro into a tailspin. Simultaneously, the yuan is down sharply against the dollar.  Analysts are uncertain if the yuan downside is part of a Chinese attempt to devalue or natural market forces at work. The dollar consequently spiked higher – dragging gold lower.  It is down $8.50 on the day at $1244.50.  Silver is down 25¢ at $15.88.

The downdrafts in the euro and yuan overshadowed a sharp drop in Asian stock markets overnight and a weak open for Wall Street that might otherwise have been a positive influence on precious metals prices.  Oil appears to be taking a breather today despite Saudi Arabia’s break with the Trump administration on production increases. Much appears to be up in the air as we begin the day, the week and the month. . . .

Quote of the Day
“A common feature of all these earlier troubles was that, having happened, they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a record 12,894,650 shares sold on 24 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash: 1929

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of Palisade Research/Adem Tumerkan

Chart note:  As Palisade Research’s Adem Tumerkan says in the article accompanying this chart, “Take advantage of the low-implied volatility the market is pricing in while ignoring the smart money rotating out of equities. The Smart Money knows that all this ‘peace’ will be followed by spurts of high turbulence – eventually. During this period of mispriced risk, complacent markets, and false confidence – be long anything with positive optionality.” Tumerkan, according to his Seeking Alpha disclosure statement, is a gold owner.

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold retreats on euro weakness, German government instability

Gold retreated further in early trading today on concerns about stability in Germany’s government that sent the euro into a tailspin. Simultaneously, the yuan is also down sharply against the dollar.  Analysts are uncertain if the yuan downside is part of a Chinese attempt to devalue or natural market forces at work. The dollar consequently spiked higher – dragging gold lower. It is down $8.50 on the day at $1244.50. Silver is down 25¢ at $15.88.

The downdrafts in the euro and yuan overshadowed a sharp drop in Asian stock markets overnight and a weak open for Wall Street that might otherwise have been a positive influence on precious metals prices.  Oil appears to be taking a breather today despite Saudi Arabia’s break with the Trump administration on production increases. Much appears to be up in the air as we begin the day, the week and the month. . . .

Quote of the Day
“A common feature of all these earlier troubles was that, having happened, they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a record 12,894,650 shares sold on 24 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable.” – John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash: 1929

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of Palisade Research/Adem Tumerkan

Chart note: As Palisade Research’s Adem Tumerkan says in the article accompanying this chart, “Take advantage of the low-implied volatility the market is pricing in while ignoring the smart money rotating out of equities. The Smart Money knows that all this ‘peace’ will be followed by spurts of high turbulence – eventually. During this period of mispriced risk, complacent markets, and false confidence – be long anything with positive optionality.” Tumerkan, according to his Seeking Alpha disclosure statement, is a gold owner.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

EU warns of $300bn hit to US over car import tariffs

Financial Times/Jim Brunsden/7-1-2018

“Donald Trump’s threat to hit car imports with punitive tariffs risks sparking global retaliation against as much as $300bn of US products, Brussels has warned.”

USAGOLD note: It does not appear that Trump has any notion of backing down.  He told Fox News today that “The European Union is possibly as bad as China, just smaller.”  U.S.-imposed auto-tariffs appear closer to certainty by each passing day.

 

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A sliver of light today at the end of the tunnel

DAILY MARKET REPORT

A tiny sliver of light flickered at the end of the tunnel this morning with gold bumping $2.50 higher at $1251.50. A slight improvement in China’s yuan was a help as was Europe’s coming to an agreement on immigration policy – an outcome that sent the euro higher on international markets.

The PCE Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, also offered a glimmer of hope by rising 2.3% (yoy) in May and exceeding the central bank’s 2% target level for the first time in six years. Chairman Powell mentioned recently interest rate policies would not be thrown off course if inflation were to exceed the target level, so the effect on gold and the dollar are likely to be limited in the short term.

Over the longer term though if inflation expectations begin to gather some momentum, current prices might attract some fresh buying in the gold market. MineLife’s Gavin Wendt summed it up this way for Bloomberg this morning, “The U.S. dollar has been the biggest beneficiary as investors’ first choice safe haven. This has indirectly led to gold-price weakness, as the dollar and gold typically move inversely to each other. With the emergence of inflation, gold is likely to find a bottom, as the dollar’s gains weaken.”

Quote of the Day
“If history teaches anything, it is that government cannot be trusted to manage money. When currency is not redeemable in gold, its value depends entirely on the judgment and the conscience of the politicians. (That is the situation in this country today.) Especially in an economic crisis or a war, the pressure to inflate becomes overwhelming. Any alternative may seem politically disastrous. Whether it be the Roman emperors repeatedly debasing their coinage, the French revolutionary government printing a flood of assignats, John Law flooding France with debased money, or the Continental Congress issuing money until it was literally “not worth a Continental,” the story is similar. A government in financial straits finds its easiest recourse is to issue more and more money until the money loses its value. The entire process is accompanied by a barrage of explanations, propaganda and new regulations which hide the true situation from the eyes of most people until they have lost all their savings.” – Scientific Market Analysis

Chart of the Day

Chart note: “In 1982, back when I was a toddler,” says Sovereign Man’s Simon Black, “the price of a Ford Mustang was $6,572. Today the cheapest Mustang starts at $25,680 according to Ford’s website. So a Mustang today is around 4x as expensive as it was 36 years ago. US Labor Department data from 1982 shows that average earnings were $309 per week, or $16,086 per year. That was enough to buy 2.45 Mustangs. Today’s earnings are $881 per week, or $45,812 per year. That’s only enough to buy 1.78 Mustangs.” A good way to fill the gap is through gold ownership. A long-term gold holding has more than compensated for the destruction of the currency for those with patience and an understanding of the forces at work in the modern economy. The chart above on the purchasing power of the dollar and gold since 1971 speaks volumes.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–A sliver of light today at the end of the tunnel

DAILY MARKET REPORT

A tiny sliver of light flickered at the end of the tunnel this morning with gold bumping $2.50 higher at $1251.50. A slight improvement in China’s yuan was a help as was Europe’s coming to an agreement on immigration policy – an outcome that sent the euro higher on international markets.

The PCE Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, also offered a glimmer of hope by rising 2.3% (yoy) in May and exceeding the central bank’s 2% target level for the first time in six years. Chairman Powell mentioned recently interest rate policies would not be thrown off course if inflation were to exceed the target level, so the effect on gold and the dollar are likely to be limited in the short term.

Over the longer term though if inflation expectations begin to gather some momentum, current prices might attract some fresh buying in the gold market. MineLife’s Gavin Wendt summed it up this way for Bloomberg this morning, “The U.S. dollar has been the biggest beneficiary as investors’ first choice safe haven. This has indirectly led to gold-price weakness, as the dollar and gold typically move inversely to each other. With the emergence of inflation, gold is likely to find a bottom, as the dollar’s gains weaken.”

Quote of the Day
“If history teaches anything, it is that government cannot be trusted to manage money. When currency is not redeemable in gold, its value depends entirely on the judgment and the conscience of the politicians. (That is the situation in this country today.) Especially in an economic crisis or a war, the pressure to inflate becomes overwhelming. Any alternative may seem politically disastrous. Whether it be the Roman emperors repeatedly debasing their coinage, the French revolutionary government printing a flood of assignats, John Law flooding France with debased money, or the Continental Congress issuing money until it was literally “not worth a Continental,” the story is similar. A government in financial straits finds its easiest recourse is to issue more and more money until the money loses its value. The entire process is accompanied by a barrage of explanations, propaganda and new regulations which hide the true situation from the eyes of most people until they have lost all their savings.” – Scientific Market Analysis

Chart of the Day

Chart note:  “In 1982, back when I was a toddler,” says Sovereign Man’s Simon Black,  “the price of a Ford Mustang was $6,572. Today the cheapest Mustang starts at $25,680 according to Ford’s website. So a Mustang today is around 4x as expensive as it was 36 years ago. US Labor Department data from 1982 shows that average earnings were $309 per week, or $16,086 per year. That was enough to buy 2.45 Mustangs. Today’s earnings are $881 per week, or $45,812 per year. That’s only enough to buy 1.78 Mustangs.” A good way to fill the gap is through gold ownership.  A long-term gold holding has more than compensated for the destruction of the currency for those with patience and an understanding of the forces at work in the modern economy.  The chart above on the purchasing power of the dollar and gold since 1971 speaks volumes.

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Gold nudges lower as dollar seesaws and problems mount in Europe and China

Gold nudged slightly lower again today as the U.S. dollar seesawed in international markets. It dipped briefly below the $1250 mark overnight and is now trading at $1252.50, down 75¢ on the day. Silver is trading at $16.00, off 12¢ on the day. If gold finishes lower again today, it will be the fourth day in a row it has lost ground.

With the immigration problem in Europe threatening Angel Merkel’s German government and the trade wars doing damage to China’s stock market and currency, the dollar at the moment is the chief beneficiary of safe-haven capital flow. That could all come to a screeching halt though if the Trump administration were to suddenly decide that the strong dollar is undermining its trade policies. Conversely, China and Europe might decide that a stronger euro and yuan might be in their best interest. We invite you to scroll below for details.

Quote of the Day
“Monetary units have always been closely tied up with units of weight. For instance, the word ‘pound’ has been used to describe both the British monetary unit (£) and the weight (lb). The pound weight was originally based on wheat. In 1266, King Henry III decreed that the British unit referred to as the grain should be defined as the weight of a corn of wheat ‘well dried, and gathered out of the middle of the ear.’ Thirty-two grains were to be equal to a pennyweight, twenty pennyweights equal to an ounce, and twelve ounces added up to a pound. So the early English pound, otherwise known as the Tower pound, was comprised of 7,680 ‘well-dried’ grains from the middle of an ear of wheat.” – JP Koning, Bullion Star

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

Chart note: China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped another 27 points overnight to close at 2786. It is down about 9% since the January interim top at the 3550 level as part of downtrend in what some analysts have dubbed a bear market for Chinese stocks. A report from the National Institute for Finance and Development, a China government-sponsored think tank, warned yesterday that “. . .China is currently very likely to see a financial panic. Preventing its occurrence and spread should be the top priority for our financial and macroeconomic regulators over the next few years.” The report was published on the internet then subsequently removed. As reported here yesterday, China intervened in currency markets on Wednesday to slow the fall of the yuan but met with limited success. The currency was down sharply again today in Asian trading.

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Posted in dailyquotes |

DMR–Gold nudges lower as dollar seesaws and problems mount in Europe and China

Gold nudged slightly lower again today as the U.S. dollar seesawed in international markets. It dipped briefly below the $1250 mark overnight and is now trading at $1252.50, down 75¢ on the day.  Silver is trading at $16.00, off 12¢ on the day. If gold finishes lower again today, it will be the fourth day in a row it has lost ground.

With the immigration problem in Europe threatening Angel Merkel’s German government and the trade wars doing damage to China’s stock market and currency, the dollar at the moment is the chief beneficiary of safe-haven capital flow. That could all come to a screeching halt though if the Trump administration were to suddenly decide that the strong dollar is undermining its trade policies.  Conversely, China and Europe might decide that a stronger euro and yuan might be in their best interest. We invite you to scroll below for details.

Quote of the Day
“Monetary units have always been closely tied up with units of weight. For instance, the word ‘pound’ has been used to describe both the British monetary unit (£) and the weight (lb). The pound weight was originally based on wheat. In 1266, King Henry III decreed that the British unit referred to as the grain should be defined as the weight of a corn of wheat ‘well dried, and gathered out of the middle of the ear.’ Thirty-two grains were to be equal to a pennyweight, twenty pennyweights equal to an ounce, and twelve ounces added up to a pound. So the early English pound, otherwise known as the Tower pound, was comprised of 7,680 ‘well-dried’ grains from the middle of an ear of wheat.” – JP Koning, Bullion Star

Chart of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

Chart note: China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped another 27 points overnight to close at 2786.  It is down about 9% since the January interim top at the 3550 level as part of downtrend in what some analysts have dubbed a bear market for Chinese stocks.  A report from the National Institute for Finance and Development, a China government-sponsored think tank, warned yesterday that “. . .China is currently very likely to see a financial panic. Preventing its occurrence and spread should be the top priority for our financial and macroeconomic regulators over the next few years.” The report was published on the internet then subsequently removed.  As reported here yesterday, China intervened in currency markets on Wednesday to slow the fall of the yuan but met with limited success.  The currency was down sharply again today in Asian trading.

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Posted in Today's top gold news and opinion |

Better Business Bureau Five Star Review

__________________________________________________

Recent Better Business Bureau Client Review

“When I first became interested in purchasing gold, I merely followed the advertising recommendation of a conservative national personality. This experience was not favorable, as the recommended firm seemed to be just another high pressure marketing boiler room, only interested in making a sale at the highest possible commission. Of course I was disenchanted, and thus lumped (unfairly) all gold brokers into the same category.

A few years later, my interest in purchasing gold overcame my earlier experience and I began seeking a trustworthy firm. As I researched various options, USAGOLD caught my attention. After a few weeks of following their website presence (the Live Daily Newsletter and their weekly video), I began a telephonic dialog with Jonathan Kosares. Recognizing that I was a novice, Jonathan patiently provided general precious metals background and technical information, while also directing me to various educational resources. Since I sought a long term relationship with a stable firm, and because of my earlier experience purchasing gold, my next step was to schedule a personal visit to USAGOLD’s offices in Denver. The meeting at USAGOLD was quite comforting and further instilled a deep sense of trust. . . All that I encountered underscored and reinforced USAGOLD’s unique history and competency with regard to gold and precious metals.

Over the next few months, I engaged in several significant transactions, and all aspects of those transactions could not have been better. I could not have been more pleased with the specific recommendations and pricing, strategies related to IRA/HSA alternatives, balancing exposures to both gold and silver, and the execution of shipping and delivery. I intend to be a lifelong customer, and to this day Jonathan is always available to share his knowledge of precious metals and his perspective on the markets. If you are looking for personal attention from a trustworthy firm that has decades of impeccable history along with a focused depth of expertise, you have found it in USAGOLD.” – R.N., 1/29/2017

Scorecard: 38 45  47 five star reviews. Zero complaints.
A+ rating. Accredited since 1991.

[Link]

USAGOLD Recommendation: The precious metals industry is unique in the financial industry in that it is not subject to oversight or regulation by third-party government entities like the SEC or CFTC. As such, marketplace forums and feedback sites often serve as a replacement for investors attempting due diligence. While several options can be found, by far the most impartial and least susceptible to vested influence is the Better Business Bureau. When looking at a company’s BBB profile, don’t focus solely on the rating. To be honest, pretty much everybody has an ‘A’ or ‘A+’ rating. What is far more important to assess is the number and nature of complaints, number and caliber of positive and negative reviews, longevity with the BBB, as well as the number of ‘stars’ given a company through the actual customer review system.

__________________________________________________

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Gold off this morning, not much in the way of news

Gold is off another $2.50 this morning at $1256.00 in a minor continuation of yesterday’s downtrend. Silver is down 8¢ at $16.21. Nothing new has surfaced in the way of market-altering news. Gold seems to be looking for direction in early trading. We will keep the DMR short today as there isn’t much to report, and point you immediately below for a couple quick, but interesting reads.

Quote of the Day
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impassible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – William Strauss & Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning [1997]

Charts[s] of the Day

Chart courtesy of TradingEconomics.com

Chart note: Though China might be tempted to choose devaluation over selling U.S. debt as a tactic in the trade war, as Goldman Sach’s economists suggested yesterday, it creates other problems for the country that it has tried to avoid in the past – most notably capital flight. The fact of the matter is that China has chosen to do just the opposite since early 2014: It has sold U.S. debt and tried to keep the yuan in a tight band against the U.S. dollar. China’s foreign exchange reserves as a result went from nearly $4 trillion to just above $3 trillion. Meanwhile, the yuan has traded in a narrow channel between 14¢ and 16¢. Noted gold analyst, Martin Murenbeeld, in fact, recently suggested that the trade war would inevitably force the U.S. to devalue the dollar. (Please scroll below) Also, the Wall Street Journal reports this morning that today “China’s central bank appeared to intervene to stem the yuan’s decline.”

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