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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/9/2005 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) ski (12/9/05; 23:52:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 139043) @ Galearis, Rhody, Flatliner, R. Powell etc. Thanks for the recent discussion and facts concerning the Comex physical silver withdrawls. I understand the silver story, but my Comex knowledge is a blind spot. I suspect the Comex is a "house of mystery" for many of us and is a big reason for the lack of active discussion on the recent physical movements. The fact that some 48% of all registered silver has changed hands "sounds impressive".... but I still wonder what this actually means. After all, if we saw the trucks hauling off all that delivered silver it would really mean something wouldn't it? But actual physical withdrawls are not yet in evidence from what I gather from the posts.Isn't it possible that we could view the new silver owners as nothing more than a single poker chip changing hands during a long night of poker playing? Whatever the case, any further Comex information would be most helpful.Perhaps other forum readers know of PM's being in short supply in their area??.................You should be careful of what you hope for. Case in point. Long ago, Ted Butler pointed out that one of the complaints concerning silver was that YOU GOT TOO MUCH FOR YOUR MONEY. Well, these people are getting their wish. You are getting less and less for your money nearly everyday!!!! Chris Powell (12/9/05; 23:30:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 139042) Thinking Americans and other Americans Pritcho's remark about "thinking Americans" recalls the famous story about Adlai Stevenson, who, campaigning for president, was told by an admirer, "All thinking Americans are behind you.""It's not enough," Stevenson replied. "I need a majority."Yes, many people are ignorant, especially about economic issues, having not had much education in that respect. But we're not going to educate people much if we begin by calling them stupid and heaping contempt on them as if they are hopeless. They have their reasons for thinking and voting as they do. We have to give them better reasons. If they don't come around, it may be just as much our fault as theirs. Rook (12/9/05; 23:21:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 139041) iffins Pritcho, well, "socialists" was the wrong term actually. Those that view our present system as too much of a rich mans game, might say it better? Those that dont like bad behaviour, environmentally, culturally, economically. Those folks. You fit in there I believe.The Bush guys do work for multiple goals, forgive the iffy writing skills, the idea is that despite the mess, in all its varied ramifications, maybe good could come out of the reserve currency guys drive for power and control. If it is possible to elect a guy in there next who sees the shot we have at doing a equitable global thing, and if all factors needed line up, some global money rain communism laced with capitalism might be best for people as a whole.It is a chance that has slim odds, seeing how we are made.But we are darn close. So called right wing guys can make a strong case that freedom and American independence is at stake in avoiding a shared money rain because the power and control that the financial overlord will have.Without Jedi to enforce it, can it be done? On a planetwide scale? Done in a way that works? Can you get there from this phantom derivitive based present system? Does the greenspan/bereneke type guys even care too? I hear him talk about the US printing press, I dont find any sentences about how globalism leads us to a result. Are/Will those guys give the reserve currency to the UN? Will they go full permanent Fiat? Or is MK the guy who first planted the flag in the vision of the future.Chaos is a future option, Community might be, MK's gold based structure could very well be it, and perhaps has the most chance. I would like to see us try the community route. If all the factors line up for it, does all it requre at that point is for there to be a leader there? goldquest (12/9/05; 23:11:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 139040) @PRITCHO As a "Thinking American," I can assure you that I feel no guilt when it comes to the so called election of the present administration.I do however, feel anger that the last two American presidential elections turned into a mockery and a freak side show.In the case of the last election, when a biased Supreme Court got to choose the president, the American system and constitution, is in dire straits and in jeopardy of total collapse. Liberty Head (12/9/05; 23:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 139039) @Rook Perhaps the ignorant, bumbling do gooders aren't that at all.Perhaps they are very clever do baders, more like wolves in sheeps clothing.The ignorant, bumbling part is played by their sheepish flockers.Oh well, either way there is plenty of drama for the gods to feast upon. Our drama is their cat food. The worse it smells the more they like it, or so I've heard.Best Wishes Rook (12/9/05; 22:55:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 139038) Give that model a name. MK, what has got me is your post of a month ago. Your model for the future gold basis. I view it as meritorious.Tweaking is required, as govt's enforcing decisions, and govts coming to general agreements is subject to lots of factors, but heck, it is plausible.We could go that way. I have read of no other model being presented by anyone. The guy that wrote the DOS program that Bill Gates bought had no way to predict that his program would be the right thing at the right time, and would be the engine for so much. Your like that guy, building a model that could fit depending if factors allow.You get an A plus, really. Who am I of course, but I dont think I am wrong to see it as a dang impressive piece of work. Congrats. I am still looking at it. PRITCHO (12/9/05; 22:48:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 139037) @Rook -- Re "gods love of drama I suppose" What was that all about ? Are you saying that ALL should be with the Bushies as you cannot have more than one controlling power? I hope you didn't mean that.Thinking Americans should all feel guilty enough as is, with electing that gang of criminals who are despised world wide. The "I vote for the possibility of a controlled money rain that shares all more evenly " from your earlier post is also scary thinking.This is a site where you can learmn about Gold. I'd suggest you do so. Rook (12/9/05; 22:32:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 139036) gods love of drama I suppose. Is is not the case that in typically human paradoxical behaviour, our efforts seem to circle around and end up being in front of us and we push against ourselves?Those that appear to be on the side of a globalist shared financial future, oppose for other reasons, those whose help they need to bring about that future. The one world communism requres actions that present socialists oppose.To get there, you need to have one reserve currency, one power center, and yet socialists only see Bush actions as empire. Is it true that to get to that decision point, to even get there, if we do, and we are close perhaps, well, we are actually, you cannot have more than one controlling force? One reserve currency power center that is capable of being the basis of a one world financial order.Shouldnt the do gooders know this, see that it is only at the decision point that thier fight is, and work to win at that point. Rather than fight the drive for power and control that is our only hope of getting to that point, and getting us into a more equitable future. Mr Gresham (12/9/05; 22:31:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 139035) C-B2 Thanks! I'm tunning over to my Yahoo scorecard now to see if our little stinker is returning to par... Liberty Head (12/9/05; 22:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 139034) Wow! What a month! POG up more than 16% in 30 days. We passed $500 and the turbos kicked on. We all know there will be some corrections along the way and volatilty is a given, but what a ride, huh? The steepest climb I've seen and it happened above $500.These spikes are like hor'deurves before the main meal begins. Savor them. Have a glass of wine. Share jokes and stories with friends. Good things are cooking in the kitchen. Before this party is over, the urge to dance will be irresistable.Dun, dun dun, dun dun dunDun, dun dun, dun dun dunay ay ayDun, dun dun, dun dun dunOh yeah!I hope you all got your dancin' shoes on.Best Wishes Rook (12/9/05; 22:09:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 139033) FT is leading where? Towncrier, This comment from the FT you posted, Thanks for doing that. I must be riddled with doubt in even the most august of financial bodies. "The truth is that all the major currency areas are burdened by debt and fiscal commitments that cannot be met out of their income. Some of these commitments will be paid. Some, such as US housing and consumer loans or European pension promises, will be defaulted on and some will be inflated away. The gold market has been anticipating the inflation component of this adjustment."Doesnt that apply only to non us countries? The fed can undergird the loans and also the loans FT mentioned that the third world is making. On the other hand, stupendous amounts have been lost by investors in enron, worldcom, that italian company, and the list just goes on and on.I guess it comes down to as the FT says, SOME of these committments will be paid.I guess if/when the hard time hits in a systemic way, the big boys will cherry pick who gets saved, and how, and with what kind of strings attached for whatever overall goal. Those with the connections, those with the elements that must be sustained, those that fit into the next great new deal plan, will be those that are called the "some of the committments will be paid."Is that what keeps countries in line? Or one of the things?The knowledge that if hard times hit, those countries that have toed the line will not be shut out of the money loop by the controllers at that time? If not shut out totally, but not favored. There is no international "controlling authority" (to use a goreism), that garuntees some fair system of allocation of money in a future depression.The promise of a controlling authority might be keeping a lot of countries in line now.That thing of "for us or against us" really seemed to mean something to countries around the world. Reserve currency does come with powers. And guys at the top do wield them, and do let others know that they COULD wield them in a tougher way. I cannot take FT comments without wondering how are they manipulating. Not always do they, but I dont know when they do or dont, so all are suspect.When the last? treasury secretary did that study on debt of the us, and left treasury talking like he did, all I could think was, Is he a total actor? Seemed like he was not, so is it the case that even a Treasury sect. could be out of the loop, or is there no loop at all? No loop at all is like saying there is no god. No overall controlling authority. However popular that view is or is not on the forum, that view is scary. There must be two factions in the financial world and govt. one for the globalization one world model, which debt embrace leads us to, and one faction that figures, "get it while you can" and doesnt mind using the mirage of a one world future because it assists in the beneficial period now, where in effect, we bleed the world of goods and minerals and raw materials, wants the US to go along into the future maintaining an independent, tough luck to you lesser folk, have and have not permanent future. Or maybe they figure the one world thing is impossible to pull off anyway given human nature, and just plain old bad luck, or good luck depending on your view, dont care what happens as long as reserve currency stays put, and want the US to stay in a debt level that works for the longest amount of time, and play the game which has as its inevitable end, the disappointment of any hopes of poorer folks to join haves in a new world order, but is merely a phase of incredible plunder without a goal of a new financial structure that shares future hard times more evenly. I vote for the possibility of a controlled money rain that shares all more evenly, but is that Gods idea on a good future? It just seems like the fork in the road we face is not metioned, globalization gets the muted nod, the approving nod, but that does not mean we have reached the fork where the decision really is. Which way will we go? If we were really headed knowingly to a shared money rain different financial model, wouldnt we see different behaviours from powers that be? Maybe there is no chance we will make that decision and will straddle the two pushing the decision point again and again off into the future. That is probably the route. We will muddle unless forced. Circumstance will determine. Combined with how good we are at that time. Rook (12/9/05; 20:46:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 139032) 51 If the Japanese are the ones buying 125 tones of gold, with 125 more stated to be bought next by them, I can only say that this needs analyzing from the perspective of why does the fed want the Japanese to do this.The Japanese are basically employees of the Fed. If the Fed wants gold to rise by the Japanese efforts, why?Having the Japanese buy gold might be to counter another central bank that is buying gold against the rules. Make that other central bank pay more? Are countries like Iran and venezuala buying? I dont know, I figure there are lots of reasons for the regular guy to buy, but for Japan to buy, maybe central banks are not out of line, but perhaps individual investors are buying more, so the Fed wants to run the price up sooner rather than later, thereby getting investors to think the run up happened already, and on and on. Whatever, I just think finding out the Japanese are big buyers deserves some attention. What is the Fed up to. Goldilox (12/9/05; 19:56:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 139031) Why Coffee, indeed @RP,In 2001, I was looking at small coffee farms on the south shore of Hawaii. Most of the 5-10 acre variety were in the $250-300K range with a nice living quarters and view. Since then, as the bottom has dropped out of coffee, I've seen some discounts to those prices, though some have been propped up by the RE bubble. Hawaii is still "resort" property, after all.Coffee shows a lot of signs of bottoming, especially the public distaste for coffee as an investment class. Probably not a bad time to get into a healthy long-term investment, although I would prefer a "gentleman" farm with Pacific Ocean views to any paper equivalents.My other concern was my affinity to Kona peaberry, as I might find myself pretty strung out! My last trip I brought home a pound for my roomie, and he made his typical "truck driver" pot of morning drip. I thought he had eaten a whole bag of chocolate espresso beans, as I peeled him from the ceiling. Goldilox (12/9/05; 19:40:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 139030) Gold and Fractals http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm snip:George, gold, like other fluid tradeable commodities, equities, and bonds has its own interested group of investors and supporting money. Gold, while recently surging to multiyearly highs with the help of Chinese and Indian acquired dollars for Xmas foo foo snow bears and onerous dinnertime telemarketing sales respectively, is remarkably about 300 dollars shy of its spectacular second-cycle second fractal growth in 1980. Considering the sky high amount of dollars created since 1980, and their puny and weakened purchasing power (consider the cost of a San Diego house in 1980), gold's recent performance in its third 13-14 year fractal growth has been underwhelmingly anemic and unimpressive.Gold has roughly followed the CRB since commodities lows were made in concert with equities in 1932, the end of the first half equity fractal cycle of the Second Grand Fractal starting in 1858. 36 years later a slight fractal stir was made with a detectable initiating growth fractal in gold from 1968 to 1970. This initiating fractal sequence was shared somewhat between the concluding sequence of the first fractal growth cycle from 1932 to 1970 and the second cycle growth from 1968/70 to present. From 1970 the three phase multiyearly growth fractal sequence has occurred: 6-7/16-17 (ending in 1992/93)/ and 13-14 years ending in 2005/06. The weakest of this final 13-14 year third fractal sequence is profoundly demonstrated by its intermediate timeframe breakdown in dollar-based gold prices between 1996-2001 where the price dipped below 300 US dollars. (where we bought in big - GU)At the end of this current fractal 2x 13-14 year growth sequence, a good portion of creditors owning US bonds and cash equivalents are members of the eastern world who have traditionally measured wealth in units of the yellow metal. Considering the inherent traditional eastern propensity to acquire gold, it is quite amazing, that with their dollar and dollar equivalent holdings, gold's price has not exceeded its 1980 second fractal price. While the total quantity of world gold in last twenty-five years has not changed appreciably, the 1980 price was supported by perhaps less than ten percent of the currently available dollars and dollar equivalents. This paradox is indicative of the amount of debt that is asset and official debt instrument obligated and which depresses and determines the real amount of investment money available in the complex money system.If, as the current gestalt fractal macro progression strongly suggests, credit soon will contract - as macroeconomically determined by debt load, asset overproduction, and asset and service inflation relative to inadequately increasing consumer wages - all asset classes will suffer the concrete reality effects of contracting values of assets and ubiquitous asset devaluation, just as has occurred in every preceding major 60-80 year cyclical, fractal, and macroeconomic devolution. At the end of the decay process, the East will still have its indestructible dollars and bonds, which will be useful in acquiring the world's residual and finite energy stores. At or near the bottom of the devolution, the only other politically allowable cash conversion for foreign held dollars will be towards the acquisition of the barbaric yellow relic. And even more so after the conclusion of prior major credit cycles, gold (and oil) will lead the depressed commodities in the next rising phoenix of fractal growth evolution.While the first terminal equity fractal cycle of XAU and NEM was 56 days in length , their second fractal cycles exceeded 140 days to their nodal lows with an expected third fractal equaling the integrative maximal 2.5x as determined by the averaged first and second fractals respectively. The recent gap in XAU is suggestive that the third terminal 2.5 x fractal is in its finals days. The daily count for physical COMEX gold is 8/17 of16-20. For those thinking the apex of the third 13-14 year fractal will challenge its second fractal high in 1980, think again. The coming devolution in asset prices will completely and rapidly suck out the smaller volume of hot air and available cash that is supporting the 2005 gold balloon. Relative to its remarkable performance in 1980, which was uninfluenced and unsupported by the now massive dollars holdings of the Eastern aurophiles, the apical conclusion of the third fractal will retrospectively, in a grand context, be seen as going out with a moderate hiccup and whimper, rather than a boom. Gary Lammert-GoldiloxStill digesting, but I thought it worth a post. Goldilox (12/9/05; 19:31:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 139029) Gold Chatter I must admit, a few, but not many, of my friends are taking notice of POG > $500. Mostly I smile and say little, but I had a long phone call with one tonight who wondered if he had "missed the boat." We may have a new recruit, as I sent him here for information.The higher POG rises, the less we need to say, as it is (and always has been) its own best ambassador. Goldilox (12/9/05; 19:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 139028) Gold Chart TC, It looks like your L-T gold chart is in serious need of revision, as it doesn't even reflect $500 yet. TownCrier (12/9/05; 18:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 139027) GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold is king in U.S. markets, oil down http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh65139_2005-12-09_22-51-59_n09255577_newsml NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Gold was unstoppable yet again on Friday, hitting levels not seen in a quarter century...Stocks gained as oil prices slipped below $60 ... but despite the good news, all three major indexes ended the week lower, with the Nasdaq snapping a 7-week winning streak...Treasury debt ended lower, capping a week of see-saw trading by wary investors ahead of next Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting ... which could be a turning point in the dollar's year-long rally."The technical and fundamental tone of the dollar has deteriorated in recent sessions and further losses are likely in the week ahead," said Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman. "The fact the dollar was not bought on either good news from the United States or poor news from Europe and Japan illustrates a potentially important shift in market psychology."Gold fever sent prices as high as $530.40 an ounce for the first time in nearly 25 years as investors, particularly in Asia, rushed to buy an asset that has gained over 16 percent in the past month alone."This buying is just more of the same of what we have been seeing. I suspect also that it may be central bank buying that is supporting it on the dips," said Paul Merrick of RBC Capital Markets.^---(from url)---^Any guesses what these various Asian investors might be talking about with their friends over the weekend?What will YOU be talking about? And still, "Main Street" has yet to catch on and consider diversification.R. USAGOLD Daily Market Report (12/9/05; 17:28:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 139026) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.FRIDAY Market ExcerptsGold higher on 'massive' fund buyingDecember 9 (from DowJones) -- COMEX February gold futures settled up $7.50 to $530.20, reaching an intraday high of $534.30. Gold has risen all seven business days of December. At the session high, the market was up $35.60, or 7% since its end-of-November price.Frank Lesh, futures analyst with Rand Financial Services, said much of the buying is based on the market's momentum. "Specs are buying and funds are buying," he said.One dealer referred to the fund buying as "massive" and said his trading desk has been "swamped."Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, pointed to increasing money supply from the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world."That's making money less valuable, and you can see the value of money declining relative to gold," he said. "Gold is how you measure paper currency. When gold is rising, it means currencies are losing value and purchasing power."Schiff offered the view that inflation is a bigger problem than official government statistics would suggest. "Look at the money-supply growth around the world. That is the definition of inflation. And there is fear of future inflation."People around the world are saying, 'I want to hold my savings in gold'."When gold is going up like this, that's telling you something."---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)--- R Powell (12/9/05; 15:58:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 139025) OvS // Druid OvS, you asked, "why coffee"? I thought I'd wait to reply until the weekend since it's mighty hard to connect coffee to precious metals. I speculate in many markets, always on long term fundamentals, as I perceive them, and I trade on a long term basis...since fundamentals do not provide an appreciable increase in the probability of being correct, in most markets, over any short time frame. Or, if they do, I haven't figured it out. But over a long enough time frame, markets are moved by supply and demand. Gold is maybe one of the hardest markets to analyse, much harder than transparent markets where year end carryover supply, new production + next year's demand are somewhat more easily estimated. But the same qualities that cloud transparency also amplify potential gains, especially in leveraged investments. Danger + opportunity, you know. Druid, concerning changes in exchange rules, yes, the Exchange initiated a "liquidation only" situation in Comex shortly after the Hunts + middle eastern buyers ran the POS up to about $50.00/ounce. The Hunts had agreed to accept less than minimum quality metal + had agreed to roll over positions to ease the delivery problem, but to no avail. This rule change crashed the price immediately. Will it ever happen again? I don't know, I still have only death + taxes on my for-certain list, and I'm still searching for a way to cheat both. But I already own physical in hand. I play the casino with investment capital + expect to gain or lose only the same. If I wanted more physical, I'd buy it for cash on the barrelhead. My physical is personal property, my investments are speculative investments. They are quite different, especially with regards to risk. happy weekend to all ! rich TownCrier (12/9/05; 15:20:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 139024) Lustrous gold outshines the big currencies (a MUST read) http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5a4fecfe-6858-11da-bfce-0000779e2340.html (Financial Times) December 9 2005 -- The dramatic rise in the gold price over the past two weeks caught even the gold bulls by surprise. Many in the slowly growing ranks of gold enthusiasts had been expecting a short-term decline in the gold price, as a punctuation in a long-term rise.Instead, they were caught by a sudden wave of buying on the Tokyo futures market. As with the rest of the world gold market, that had both an immediate and a long-term cause.The immediate cause was the move by the Japanese investing public into gold futures as the most highly leveraged vehicle through which they could sell their currency short.That is the short-term technical explanation. It obscures the larger trend that is emerging. While the immediate rise in gold has really been a decline in the yen, the rise in the price of gold is a sign of the markets' displeasure with all the major developed world currencies. Right now, the gold rise is pointing out the dilemma for the Japanese authorities in accommodating both the borrowing required by the recovery in private sector activity and a need to keep the enormous public debt refinanced at low interest rates.* * * The truth is that all the major currency areas are burdened by debt and fiscal commitments that cannot be met out of their income. Some of these commitments will be paid. Some, such as US housing and consumer loans or European pension promises, will be defaulted on and some will be inflated away. The gold market has been anticipating the inflation component of this adjustment.Furthermore, the chronic developing world debt crisis has now been turned on its head. No one seems to have told Bono, but the real debt problem is the developing world's growing holdings of shaky rich world debt. The developed currencies need to be collectively devalued relative to those of the rising powers. During the coming years of the gold bull market, the world monetary system will be reconfigured with a much larger role for emerging market currencies and a much more frugal life, relatively speaking, for people in developed countries.The effect of advanced financial analysis, data gathering and computation has been to build ever larger inverted pyramids of debt and promises teetering on ever smaller bases of tangible assets.The gold price in the major currencies may soon correct from the rapid rise of the past two weeks. After that, though, it will continue a fitful, but dramatic, increase over the next several years.^---(from url)---^Why take my word for it, when you can have a columnist in the Financial Times tell you very nearly the same thing.Continue to ignore this at your own financial peril, or else do the heads up thing and get yourself a healthy diversification in gold to the maximum extent that your understanding of these conditions will comfortably allow.USAGOLD-Centennial can help -- brokering gold deals with good advice and great prices since 1973!The call is free. 1-800-869-5115R. TownCrier (12/9/05; 14:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 139023) International gold http://www.business-standard.com/bsonline/storypage.php?&autono=208059 Mumbai December 10, 2005 -- The international rally sprung from the gold buying spree of the Japanese government, treasurers and funds. They have bought about 125 tonne of gold in the last 15 days and they are set to buy another 125 tonne (open interest is 125 tonne). Therefore, as long as the Japanese investors are active, gold prices are not expected to ease, say experts. The Japanese yen weakened further on Friday by about 2 yens against the dollar which is expected to strengthen their economy. However, interest rate is zero for the investor. Therefore, everybody has diverted their funds to buy gold as the metal is considered a safe haven. Another reason for the spectacular rise in prices is that gold demand is seen surpassing the mine supply. Miners are not very keen on developing new sites since production costs have sharply risen. This year spot gold prices have risen nearly 20 per cent on heavy buying by funds who have been diversifying their portfolios into commodities for better returns and on fears of inflation and economic growth. The trend is expected to continue in 2006 too and $850 an ounce is not an impossible level in 12-18 months, say analysts.^---(from url)---^I think it highly unlikely that you hear the Fed chairman suggest "irrational exuberance" as he once infamously did with regard to stocks. Fundamentally gold is the perfect reserve asset, and any central banker worth his salt should know that the price rise thus far is but a mere droplet in the bucket.R. CoBra(too) (12/9/05; 14:24:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 139022) @ Mr. Gresham - Good to see you back - There's no Bull like a Gold Bull - True enough; And for me it was proven again today as the "Co" in my handle went up more than 100% today in fiat currency, of course ... but still ... it's kind'a remarkable, even if the outcome is still a far cry of the original intent.At least it's a first step towards again reaching for the sky - and it's definitely not blue sky!Thanks and regards - cb2 TownCrier (12/9/05; 14:14:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 139021) Past, present, future http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/history.html Given the growth of global population and money creation over the past 25 years since gold's previous flirtation with price freedom (reaching $850 in 1980), using the linked graph as a visual aid you can easily see that the future is wide open and gold has plenty of upward room to explore.Bottom line: price is nice, but ultimately it is utility that counts, and PHYSICAL gold is where it's at as gold is being returned to the throne as the principal international reserve asset. Dollar-bond holders beware.R. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/9/05; 13:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 139020) FREE Gold Information Packet -- to help you enter the market with grace and confidence! http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Flatliner (12/9/05; 12:42:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 139019) @Smeagol, Thank you. Value will be discovered. White Rose (12/9/05; 10:52:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 139018) Asian gold trading may still rule Comex Based on my "asia rules" rule, I predicted (to my wife) that NY gold would close $6.30 up from yesterday. I just logged on and caught the $9 plus spike. We still have 40 minutes to go, and I think we may end up close to my prediction.I think who-ever is buying on Comex is being very clever and trying not to spook the herd. I think the high end of th trading range in asia can be considered a value that is considered realistic by the current gold market.No one wants a $50 spike that will upset the applecart. Gold is powering ahead, using asian money as price guidance. Smeagol (12/9/05; 10:20:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 139017) argh... remove the "u" from our lasst... Smeagol (12/9/05; 10:11:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 139016) Yesss... ...a ten dollar move now is the same as five dollars back when It was 250... ssteady as she goes, Captain Goldheart!S.KoyaanisquatsiTEOTWAKIDYODD Flatliner (12/9/05; 10:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 139015) 19 years? IMHO, more like 412 days You will not find me talking about the price of gold often. IMO, its value goes far beyond price and all will see this in due time. But, do not delay if you want some.Organisms, like the price of gold, tend to move in a trading range. You all know that and see that happening daily. Does it wobble 5 bucks, or 1%? 1.5%? 2%? I do not know the absolute number, but I have observed that price is relative to the underlying item. Thus, if I see something that trades for 500 move 5, I don't think of it as a five dollar move, but a 1% move.Bring up excel, (or your favorite spreadsheet) and run the numbers at 1% growth per day. You will find that 412 days of 1% growth will change 500 to 30,000. Mr Gresham (12/9/05; 09:56:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 139014) No Bull! ...like a Gold Bull!Or I guess the old expression was "There's no rush like a Gold Rush."Me, I've sort of targeted "no sales until it equals my mortgage payment" (smile) In case any PTB are listening, I won't specify that and allow them to target such a major resistance point (wink), but it's not a very fancy house, although it is a recent mortgage.Just your average American, tryin' to catch a break... Knallgold (12/9/05; 09:37:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 139013) Paper/physical And where is the paper Gold smoke,predicted since 360$?Can this just be covered under a carpet ad finitum?Altough the Gold shares,in my humble contrarian opinion,just doesen't show the returns predicted/used to be/to be expected,you can argue as much you can.Any Goldshare holders already converting to physical?Every other week I seem to earn Another 1000sFr. per kilo.I hear people already saying "take profit'sell some"-not the best sign (I might rather wait until they want to buy from me)But then,why should I sell my wealth at all??? Druid (12/9/05; 09:10:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 139012) (No Subject) Druid: For a future price guessing contest here at the Castle, what price will gold be at when "Helicopter" Ben takes over and will this be construed as his initiation into the fire? The Hoople (12/9/05; 08:59:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 139011) $12 collar? While I jested about expanded collar limits I noticed it did repel and sell off from +$12. Jeez, don't they know these computer program trades are what got Meriwether and his LTCM buddies in trouble. Attn. cabal: The old model doesn't work anymore. Time to call the Fed. Get a bail out now before you lose that East Hampton property. You might lose that Palm Beach gig but hey southern coastal properties are getting dicier anyway. Galearis (12/9/05; 08:51:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 139010) the big one? We seem to have a flurry of massive margin calls and short covering going on in NY! We have lift-off!? James Sinclair will be feeling very ambiguous about this as $529 is his gold price that spells calamity for the US. As this figure is not inflation adjusted in value terms, he is probably incorrect,,,but others out there might buy (smile) into his scenario. At any rate,,,this is probably the day that all will remember (incorrectly) where gold broke out. We will likely be to $600 (after fewer retracements) in relatively faster order. Silver's rise, of course does not look as impressive, but has out performed the yellow this month. Oh, and I believe that this is a breakout for silver against CAD (Canadian $). So now we play catch-up in silver as well.Unless the PPT gets this under control, we could be in commercial signal failure in these metals....And I think the boyos who were running on the metals in COMEX knew that this was coming!So did we! contrarian (12/9/05; 08:41:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 139009) Holy Smokes!--$530!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >$10 spike, so the old $6 rule has bitten the dust for good! OvS (12/9/05; 08:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 139008) Something IS happening. Gold and Silver are blowingpast all technical indicatorswith a vengance.A Sinclair follower complaint,that since he sold his 1/3he can't find a lower entry-point to buy it back. Sinclair'sadvise: bank the proceeds witha smile and buy Canadian trea-suries. The Hoople (12/9/05; 08:29:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 139007) Rational exuberance It's funny to me how these $6 collars show up at alleged resistance levels - $500, $517 (about 3-$6 collars) $529 (2-$6 collars) $547 (3-$6 collars). It's very mathematical, almost like some Myron - Scholes LTCM genius discovered the power of 6 in price management. Hopefully they are tallying about 8-$6 collars to $600 and they probably didn't program the computer for how many collars $2,000 would take. Maybe after today they will have to go to expanded collar limits- $12, $18, $54. I remain, Rationally exuberant OvS (12/9/05; 08:18:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 139006) Gold stocks getting more attention. Among the NY Stock Exchange's25 most active stocks, Newmontand today also Coeur d'Aleneare popping up. Things area'changing. contrarian (12/9/05; 08:16:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 139005) David Linkley--Could not agree with you more! The message is a valuable one and worth repeating. There is absolutely no leadership and awareness of the problems the country is facing. Even if you were to look back to the 70s, there was at least an attempt (via the much maligned and perhaps not looking so bad now in comparison, Jimmy Carter) to address the fossil fuel issue.(12/8/05; 21:08:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 138989)The light shines throughUnbacked fiat is no match for gold as the Comex paper pushers are being smoked. At some point expect an attempt at a counterpunch but how much will it matter? Our Congress merrily assures a higher deficit going forward with goodies for everyone. Lets see our great leadership in action: * No efforts to move away from fossil fuels* No effort to bring the budget under control* No effort to address the trade deficit* No efforts to address illegal immigration* No efforts to address the pension crisesI could go on and on but you get the point, buy gold now while you can still pay dollars for it. We may reach a point where it's not available at any price. OvS (12/9/05; 07:35:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 139004) A certain dark feeling. Gold deals are made amongthe well connected. With ahandshake, but eyes averted.Is there a monster derivativecliff-hanger darkening thelandscape?I'd rather have a 5 year45 degree ascending slopeof a goldprice increase,then a sudden blow-up intothe thousands. Let's hopeit can be managed. OvS slingshot (12/9/05; 07:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 139003) Premiums, Dips and POG How long till we reach that point of "Gold at any Price?" "What you going to do when it all goes down" " Don't look back, don't ever turn around" " Heat of the Night" By Brian AdamsSlingshot---------<> PRITCHO (12/9/05; 05:29:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 139002) The Ant Farm - - - A Very Good Read http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/stott120805.html I'm not a big fan of Don Stott but he has excelled himself here with a very simple message. Well worth the read. Ned (12/9/05; 03:59:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 139001) Holy Smokes !! Just got up on this golden Friday morn, 5:45 eastern, to see precious up Another 4 1/2 bucks. $524 is getting serious. Silver nudging 9 beans. Cool!Wonder if we get one of those 'throw in the towel' crazy, $30/40/50 'short-covering, RWE days?Wouldn't that be awesome.Have a golden day. TownCrier (12/9/05; 03:35:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 139000) Analysts see gold strong on funds and fundamentals http://www.borsaitaliana.reuters.it/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=fundsNewsUK&storyID=2005-12-09T081056Z_01_NOA929389_RTRUKOC_0_ANALYSIS-GOLD.xml&archived=False LONDON (Reuters) - Gold's bull run is likely to continue in the near term as the metal is getting tremendous support from investment funds and positive fundamental factors, analysts said on Thursday.Gold demand was seen surpassing the mine supply..."We have got a very positive scenario in the short term. From a trading point of view, there is still room for further strengths in prices," said Alan Williamson, head of commodity research at HSBC Bank."At the moment, gold is clearly very much in flavour. Gold is now rallying in all currencies."Spot gold prices have risen nearly 20 percent this year on heavy buying by funds who have been diversifying their portfolios into commodities for better returns and on fears of inflation and economic growth....gold prices were expected to continue to rise in 2006 and it was not impossible to see gold spiking to $850 an ounce in 12 to 18 months. Physical markets have also been supporting the price rise..."Diminishing rate of primary supply of gold to total above-ground pool is reviving gold's scarcity properties," said Georges Lequime, precious metals analyst at RBC Capital Markets.Industry experts said mining costs had risen significantly over the past years because of more costly fuel, power, freight and labour.^---(from url)---^To ride this bull all the way to the final destination, it would be wise to choose the indomitable product instead of the beleaguered producers.R. TownCrier (12/9/05; 03:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 138999) A numerical reality check, or call it food for (ANOTHER's School of) Thought On the one hand, some gold skeptics think that gold's recent gains have grossly outpaced the underlying fundamentals, whereas a lot of other people who have been quite pleased and are somewhat excitable by gold's recent price performance, thinking also perhaps that it is too good to be true with half of their mind while anticipating further gains with the other half.Indulge the numbers for a moment, and imaginine a continuation of this recent trend. With a steady rate of $5 gains per trading day (and without wasting ANY time on retracements), it would take 19 years(!) for the price of gold to attain the $30,000 suggested price level that ANOTHER used as his talking point.If, indeed, the giants of the world (central banks figuring highly among them) anticipate that $30k per ounce is a reasonable ballpark revaluation level for gold in its new role (a primary MTM reserve), I think we can all agree that the CBs aren't going to get too terribly bent out of shape watching gold get there at the current snail's pace.More to the point, I could EASILY imagine there to be ample latitude and incentive among them for not only casual acceptance of this price rise pace, but at some point for actually putting an accelerant under it to hasten the arrival.It's impossible to say where we might currently be in the grand scheme of things, but it's quite possible that we shall one day be at a point where you are sitting on the sidelines with fistfuls of ready cash and a finger on the telephone, waiting for a retracement that never comes.If you subscribe to ANOTHER's thesis, then ahead of us is nineteen years at +$5 per day gains on average, or else more likely than that a much more stunning arrival.The goldenaire question of the day: Will you be a gold owner as things heat up, or will you be a pouting sidelined papermeister?R. Usul (12/9/05; 01:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 138998) Interesting Thoughts http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html Sun Nov 23 1997 10:51:"When the change in direction of gold starts, it will be hyper fast! A good many will run to the US$ first, making that currency rise with gold and misleading much people...Many gold stocks will rise with gold and most people will hold for gains. But they will never see then converted to value. If the gold markets lock before they reach $1,000 , all mining stocks will be consumed in the paper fire. A sad day for many."Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52:"Do you think in these terms: "if gold goes up $100+ next week I'll sell my futures, gold stocks and 10 K-rands for a fat profit and laugh all the way to the bank" If the gold market was the same as in the 70s and 80s, that might be a good move. But this market is not the same."Sun Oct 19 1997 23:08:"Watch oil! If it rises much and gold isn't sold off then the game is over."Sun Apr 19 1998 00:08:"The gold market may lock at $400? Or $4,000! When the public perception does come to understand, many entities I know of will not be buying "at the market" as your broker will. These ones, they will be "above the market", "well above the market"! Will you bid $1,000 when your broker screen shows $475? I myself, as a country will be "there"! You sir, will stand well behind most in line."6/29/98"The last gold war of 1980 ended as the choice was between "gold as a currency" and the US dollar. The dollar was accepted as the world reserve and trading currency. Many did not believe this reserve would hold in the test of time. It was "expected" that from twenty years in the past, any inflation of dollar debt would send all persons in a run to gold. This be the "flaw" in thinking of many analysis and investors. For it was in this time that all the governments of the world began to "play a currency game". Yes, a contest for many, even most, but not all! This game was offered to the rich, the working and the poor. It was even for the wealthy to play as they watch to see who will remain the longest. But history has shown that as the sun sets in the east, so must also conclude games of men, these "games of chance"."8/10/98 Friend of ANOTHER"...$30,000 US will reflect the American debt as the negative reserve asset it truly is..."9/3/98"Physical gold will not reach $30,000/oz because noone is buying it! It will come to this level because the dollar, today, is already inflated to level that will bring this price. The perception that this dollar is "no longer a good reserve", it will bring the flood of buying. This "already printed and in circulation today" currency will seek gold!" ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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