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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/9/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Varda (7/9/01; 23:58:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57807)
With FOA/Another
I authorize the Tower to release my e-mail address to FOA as well.

Solomon Weaver (07/09/01; 23:12:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 57806)
RPowell - How I look at Silver
Mr. Powell

Let me give you a small example. I work in a company which is one of three primary suppliers of a proprietary component to the emerging industry of genetic and genomics. There has been enough competition in this product line to allow many "purchasing agents" to make choices on price alone. Contracts, if made, were agressively negotiated by buyers based on lowest price offering. Price reductions were the reason that one supplier is stepping out. At the same time, demand has risen dramatically. Now, we are in a position where there is virtually no "spot" market on this material.....some companies are actually going to go out of business (for a while).

The point here is that the "buyers" today are so used to the "supplier" submitting to all their needs, and the "idea" that a critical component to their business could simply become "unavailable by overnight express" let alone by any form of shipment in the next 4-6 months, is unheard of.

I am absolutely convinced that silver buyers in all of these electronics companies, medical companies, electroconductive companies, etc. etc. have literally no emotional concept as to the near term catastrophe which awaits them...just in time.

You see, (this is something I never really understood, but) the great financial turnaroud wizards somehow learned that raw material stock, work in process, and inventory of unsold goods was all "working capital" and they let managers take credit for "conversion of working capital into quarterly profits".

Any industrial silver buyer who is not sitting on one years worth of silver reserve for his products is putting himself in serious risk to the obvious dislocation in silver which will come (one of these years)...but that guy would be fired by his CEO for insisting on the "unproductive working capital" that it represents.

So, Mr. Powell...the unknown factor in your analysis is not really "how much silver is left (supply reserve)?" it is "how dramatic with the demand surge be normal industrial users of silver want to accumulate their own strategic reserves?". In a world that "uses" 800 million ounces per year, this could easily ramp to 200-300 million ounces just like that. It is exactly because silver demand is inelastic that many users may decide to accelerate their buying program to put in a few months reserve...i.e. it is something they will easily use or be able to liquidate.

This hasn't even touched the demand question of what "new investors" and "traders" will do when they jump on the trend..nor what the "buy back demand" from lease holders will be.

I would like to correct you slightly....my post on timing only stated that silver currently fits my "aggressive" catagory of "investments which have a good prospect of doubling within 3 years". You are correct in assuming that I am much more bullish (perhaps a little more reserved than Netking) but I am also patient.

I also point out that silver has very little real downside risk today.....one, it will never be worth nothing...two, you can buy it in refined form today (prestamped into little rounds that used to circulate in the great USofA with some Presidents printed on them), for less than true production costs....downside risk is the other half of making a good investment.

Poor old Solomon

Randy (@ The Tower) (07/09/01; 23:06:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 57805)
Canuck says, "I don't know if you saw my post 57633..."
Hello! Was that Friday or Saturday? I'll have something for you when the sun comes 'round again... and for KarenSue, too.

Randy (@ The Tower) (07/09/01; 22:27:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 57804)
Corners? I scarcely think so.... [Perplexed (msg#: 57782)]
P: --- "When Randy and TG decreed that theirs was the only correct answer to the question...on what is and what is not money he and Randy had painted themselves into a corner."---

Decreed??? Why the inflammatory tenor? Please be aware that I have thus far, since posing the question, merely been setting the stage for a larger presentation on the "Meaning of Money". I began by asking people to take an honest, inward assessment of their personal perceptions regarding the essential nature or meaning of money. Having only scratched the surface thus far in this presentation, I find it your characterization premature and unwarranted that I've somehow painted myself into a corner when in fact, I've been setting the stage.

P: --- "We discovered that there are as many definitions of money as there are participants to the Forum.....I stated then and I will state now that the definition of money, like the definition of beauty is in the eye of the beholder."----

To be sure, thus far we've only "discovered" that the singular essence of money has not been universally recognized for what it is. Rather, we have seen -- as I expected -- people putting forth various examples of Currencies and examples of Barterable Assets; none of them approaching the target of our scrutiny, the Essence of money.

Surprisingly, I've seen some people choose to pass this all off as trivial arguments in semantics. But in truth, if they are unwilling to probe into the core nature of Money, then they are likely to remain ill-equipped to make sound decisions in all places where money interacts with their lives. Why should we dare risk passing this off as semantical trivia? I can think of nothing else that is so important and ubiquitous as money, yet so woefully misunderstood and generally neglected as a subject worthy of deeper meditation.

I invite you to be patient and stay tuned...

Black Blade (07/09/01; 21:42:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 57803)
401(k) plans losing money - Retirement savings plans lose money for first time in 20 years
http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/07/09/investing/401k/

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The average account in the popular 401(k) retirement savings plan lo st money last year for the first time in the plan's 20-year history despite thousands of dollars in new contributions, according to an industry report Monday. The average account shrank to $41,919 in 2000 from $46,740 in 1999, according to consulting firm Cerulli Associates. Participants were highly exposed to company stock, which accounted for 18 percent of 401(k) assets, the firm said. They also had 31 percent of assets on average in retail mutual funds.

Black Blade: Investors have seen their portfolios rise for a long time. Imagine the shock for these "buy and hold" investors when their statements arrive in the mail. There was a time when most financial planners would recommend to their clients a 5% or better position in gold for portfolio insurance (wealth preservation).

Solomon - This could be the "shock" that you are waiting for. Cheers!

Chris Powell (07/09/01; 21:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 57802)
As GATA closes in, Treasury reclassifies West Point gold again
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/819
Latest "Midas" commentary from GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

silvercollector (07/09/01; 21:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 57801)
@ Sierra Madre
I saw your excellent post 57774.

I have been reading alot on the inflation/deflation debates and am quite aroused. Inflation and deflation of WHAT?
Relative to WHAT?

A recent article (possibly by Hamilton) was very good. The article went something like this. Money which is always being 'created' moves into the vehicle that, at that moment, is earning the highest rate of return.(ROI)

In 1998/99/00 the FED and the USG was fortunate (?) enough to 'steer' the 'money' into the stock market. This created 'inflated' the stock market. Yes, money went into the real estate and the US currency markets creating an inflated bubble but not to the same degree. As the stock market became 'crowded' money has left, deflating it and now the roar of money is moving to the next undervalued asset class.
Money is moving to bonds thus the newest inflated asset class. Money will inflate ANYTHING it chases, period. Money will deflate ANYTHING upon its exit.

So now as money crowds the US$, the dollar rises creating a RELATIVE depreciation(deflation) of EVERYTHING purchased with it. When we see the co-incident rise of US$ and gold (a la FOA) the end-game approaches. In the final stages of US$ death, the dollar falls creating an inflation, that is to say a higher cost to assets purchased with that currency.
In summary, 'inflation' is a lowering of a currency resulting in higher prices for other asset classes and 'deflation' is a rising currency resulting in lower prices for other asset classes. However, a falling dollar and a falling real estate market, for example, would not cause a 'flation' due to equal relativity.

From what I understand, the Inflation/Deflation issue is a discussion of relativity.

Secondly, from what I understand is that a 'flat' currency with a rising price in copper for example, is not necessarily inflation but a higher price set by fundamentals
such as supply/demand constraints and economic activity.

Thanks,

silvercollector

Netking (07/09/01; 21:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 57800)
Japan set to test new lows. . .
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c3&a=r14,m26-12-9&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l
The Nikkei-225 again fails to inspire today with the index looking set to test the March 2001 low for support. If we break through here then look for a move down to the 10,000 level last seen around the mid 80's.

Solomon Weaver (07/09/01; 21:09:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 57799)
Black Blade...on Fisher and O'Niell
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"I continue to believe that the prospects for long-term global prosperity are better now than at any time in our history." Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill July 2001
-----

Black Blade these are two very different statements....had Fisher used the words of O'Niell he would have been correct...From 1930 to 2000 (only 70 long term years) there was an immense period of prosperity driven by three things.

1. World Trade
2. Cheap Oil
3. Human Resourcfullness and Inventiveness.

Actually, my belief is that the coming long term period of global prosperity will be very improved by a decent shock now. It is scandalous how much money flows today into "financial growth" when many intellegent and hard working people lose decent jobs because the "make something the world can use".

Let us all pray that the shock causes enough fear but not undue suffering...and strong prayer it will need.

(by the way sir....I highly appreciate your daily efforts in following the Energy situation and posting all the links).

Poor old Solomon

Black Blade (07/09/01; 20:54:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 57798)
Oil prospects darken for Azerbaijan
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3M3FR4XOC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZFKOXOA0C&tagid=ZZZCWHK1B0C&subheading=energy%20%26%20utilities

Snippit:

Azerbaijan's position as the centre of the Caspian oil and gas industry this week suffered a further blow, after ExxonMobil reported a dry exploration well, and speculation rose of other failed offshore drilling. An ExxonMobil official announced this past week that the first exploration well in the Oguz offshore concession, once believed to contain some 95m tonnes of crude, would be abandoned because "no commercial accumulation of hydrocarbons were encountered". "At the moment there are no plans for future drilling," the official added. ExxonMobil, under its contract with Azerbaijan's state oil company Socar, is committed to drilling two wells in the structure or pay compensation. The US multinational's announcement is the third piece of bad news this year for the ex-Soviet state of Azerbaijan, which only a few years ago was being touted as the next Kuwait. It comes as industry analysts have raised expectations that Chevron is soon to announce similar bad results at offshore drilling sites.

Black Blade: This looks like a bust! As I said in "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man," the Super-Giants have been found. The next round is the exploitation of a few remaining Giants, small fields and nonconventional oil. Meanwhile, the Super-Giants are all in various stages of decline. The future looks bleak as petroleum prices will continue to rise as this finite resource is exploited and the more costly sources are exploited.

megatron (07/09/01; 20:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 57797)
Silver
If it was good enough for the Roman empire and the Athenians it's good enough for me. ;^)

Solomon Weaver (07/09/01; 20:24:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 57796)
Trail Guide
Trail Guide

There comes a time in the life of every great teacher when he shocks his students by announcing his departure.

It marks the day when they must rely on their own senses and their own minds.

There was a feeling of finality about yesterday's farewell post. And I sincerely believe it will be almost impossible to find any forum but private, where "some" students will not be "unruly".

If you have left us sir, I thank you for all those years amongst us. If you return, I remain your student. I will anyway forge ahead using my own senses and my own mind. You and Another have already taught me much to build upon.

Poor old Solomon

Canuck (07/09/01; 20:22:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 57795)
@ Randy
I don't know if you saw my post 57633 and therefore don't know if my questions are pertinent/relevant?

Thanks again for your 'mark-to-market' report.

Canuck (07/09/01; 20:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 57794)
@ Perplexed (#57782)
Good post!

Solomon Weaver (07/09/01; 20:05:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 57793)
Netking's Silver
And it will loose the name of "junk".

Poor old Solomon

auspec (07/09/01; 19:41:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 57792)
Netking
99.9 % of the silver I hold is in the form of MONEY. Money it was, is, and shall be.
It will cease to become money only when its melt value SOARS past its monetary value, MUCH more than currently. Then it may become someone else's form of money or simply an industrial commodity. I won't care in the least which it becomes.
Semantics aside, silver remains money, simply too valued to spend as same.

Tree in the Forest (07/09/01; 19:27:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 57791)
Some thoughts on Pandagold's opinions
I can't help thinking about Pandagold's contention that "they" wouldn't let gold go until the Euro was ready. I can't disagree with that. However, the question is, what criteria shall be used to determine when the Euro is ready? He appeared to believe that this could not occur until Euro currency was circulating ie 2002. But currency as we know is just a small part of any monetary system. Today, digital money is the biggest part. And if new digital debt is being denominated in Euros at a greater rate than dollars (it's there or almost there now), an argument could be made that the Euro is ready for prime time. If this is added on to certain other considerations (including Trail Guide's contention that we're almost there), I feel that there is a case for gold going now rather than waiting another 6 months. This is why I predicted gold action this summer. There is another reason which has to do with beesting's hypothesis but I need to see if I can come up with more information on this.

auspec (07/09/01; 19:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 57790)
MK and ?
I submit your best expression as putting in your 2 dwts worth of info, 20 pennyweights {dwts} per ounce.
Anyway, thats my 2 dwts. worth of advice.

Tree in the Forest (07/09/01; 19:12:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 57789)
Sierra Madre, uponroof
I read Fekete's article with great interest. His idea that bond speculation sucked up dollars during the 30's makes sense. The Fed can only pump money, not control how it's spent. But someone else here posted the other day that 47% of new debt was Euro denominated. If that's true it is a staggering amount. Since dollar debt can only be repaid by adding more debt, it would mean a marked reduction in new dollar debt, a severe shortage of dollars and a rising DXY0. When you consider that Greenspan has added almost 700 billion dollars in the last few months, the continued rise of the dollar must mean that one or both of the two above explanations must be quite extreme. I can imagine Greenspan with one eye on the dollar index and the other on the throttle, trying to let the dollar go as high as he can so that he doesn't have to print as much money but not daring to allow it to get too high. What do you think?

auspec (07/09/01; 19:10:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 57788)
Sierra and cb2
Antale E. Fekete
Gents, yes the bond markets are a significant magnitude greater than the stock markets. Clinton was much dismayed to learn that his economic policies would largely be dictated by the bond markets.
Per cb2: "The global economy needs more stimulus, so lower interest rates, boost monetsry aggregates and if you can't do more...you'll never be sore!"
My take on Antale Fekete's essay is that there is a point reached, when the bond lemming speculators have reached ground 'near zero', that there comes a point where "commodities are bought up, and all bids for bonds are withdrawn." Think the Japanese have had much of a bond play recently? As always, the speculators go to excess with their bond buying, taking advantage of the opportunities presented. When they reach the point of diminishing returns they reflexly head into commodities/hard assets. It then takes unbelievable interest rates to bring the bond guys back into the fold, as happened in the 1980s. These bond guys are definitely a special breed.
Money flows between the bond and commodity markets are the keys with these savvy investors. Smart money is fairly skittish to say the least. Commodities are at or near historic lows and at or near the various costs of production. At what point will the bond blokes be spooked into hard assets? Just about EVERYWHERE one looks there are solid reasons for the low cyclicality of precious metals to end.
Looking forward to some bonds to commodities switch out! Do you guys read this the same? Anyone?

Netking (07/09/01; 19:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 57787)
Money - What constitutes thereof, continued. . . .
Is SILVER Money?

(This, the latest from Dave Morgan of 'Silver Investor', continues Sir Randy's theme question of what constitutes 'sound money'- Netking)

I took out my Black's Law Dictionary and looked up money. Interesting when will look at the legal aspects of things. I will admit I have an old version 1968 to be exact. The reason is bias on my part. It seems the definition of things keep changing as we move forward in time. To quote Blacks Law Dictionary, Money." In usual and ordinary acceptation it means gold, silver, or paper money used as circulating medium of exchange, and does not embrace notes, bonds, evidence of debt, or other personal or real estate. Lane v. Railey, 280 Ky.319,133 S.W. 2d 74, 79, 81."

Reading further we find:
In its strict technical sense "money" means coined metal, usually gold or silver, upon which the government stamp has been impressed to indicate its value. In its more popular sense, "money" means any currency, tokens, bank-notes, or other circulation medium in general use as the representative of value. Then under that several more sites are named.

Silver has the six aspects of money in a classical sense. It is divisible, durable, convenient, consistent, has utility value, and cannot be created by fiat. Silver is used as a medium of exchange and as a store of value.

Before we get into a big argument about whether silver is money or not, I need to point out a couple of details. First, it is a recorded fact that silver has been used in more places and for longer periods of time for money than gold. Secondly, I would like to quote Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman, who stated "The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold."

Quoting from the Silver-Investor.com web site: It is impossible to write about silver without evoking emotions, although it is my goal to be as objective as possible. There are very strong views about this metal both positive and negative. One such area involves the silver as money issue. The facts are that precious metals are rare, fiat currencies can be printed at will, and have always been abused.

My projection for the ultimate price of silver would be meaningless, but the facts surrounding the value can be objectively studied. In the end we all have a vested interest in the monetary system holding together. Precious metals are a barometer of world financial health. If gold and silver start moving up in a manner similar to 1979-1980, then the paper money game is essentially finished . Will this happen? Objectively, I do not know! However, I do know, throughout all of recorded history when a country has adopted a monetary system founded on edict (fiat), the nation has had a financial collapse. As we enter the next Millennium, remember the gold window was closed in 1971 and for the first time in history, the reserve fiat currency is worldwide phenomena.

The price of silver is a function of the understanding of the market itself. When the market understands that money based on unsound principles cannot help but fail eventually, then the true value of silver will be determined. Until that time arrives it is prudent to prepare some savings in the form that best retains value.

It would be of tremendous importance to everyone if I were able to predict one event in the investment world that had a 100% certainty of being fulfilled. I cannot, however here is something to ponder. All fiat currencies have eventually reached their intrinsic value of zero. This implies that the dollar will reach zero as well. Now, we currently are under the influence of a "strong" dollar. We must ask ourselves; strong relative to what? If the Federal Reserve admits that today's dollar is worth the equivalent of five cents in 1913, we have lost 95% of the purchasing power. So I ask how strong is today's dollar? Is the dollar's strength based upon the restraint of the printing press, the rate of return ( interest rate), the productive capacity of the people, or faith?

Now, take the time to look at your "money" be it coin or currency. You will notice that all have the statement "In God We Trust". Are we to put our trust in Mr. Greenspan, the Fed, or any political affiliation? Or are we to trust the source? Before, I am accused of going religious on my readership, let me make my point. The source of all wealth is land. If you believe God created the Earth fine, if not fine, we all can agree we live in a physical universe and land composes part of the Earth's character. Let me repeat myself, the source of all wealth is land. That is an interesting concept is it not? Gold and silver are mined out of the earth, many foodstuffs are grown in soil, houses , apartments , and shopping centers are built on it. In fact most of the list of commodities are derived from the land in one way or another, from soybeans to cotton, from sugar to copper. However, there is one subset that trades on the commodities exchanges that are the sole creation of man- fiat currencies, bonds, notes, and bills. (Not money according to Black's).

The world has entered into a great economic shift from paper assets to hard assets. This cycle repeats itself and now is the time when investors should be or should have liquidated their stocks and bonds and begun to accumulate physical commodity type assets. This is the real thing, commodities cannot and will not go bankrupt, there is real tangible value and most commodities are required by mankind.

Now we have some insight into where we are in the economic cycle between paper assets and physical assets. What takes place at the end of great inflations? What does history teach us? Actually, at the end of the inflation two interesting things happen. First, real money as defined above begins to appear in the market for everyday transactions. Almost anyone on the internet is aware gold can and is used for transactions through e-gold, GoldMoney and a few others. Once a person or business has enrolled with an internet gold holding company transactions over the internet can be made using gold. There are also some actual warehouse receipts being used by NORFED and Millennium Money. These warehouse receipt are exchangeable by the bearer on demand for actual silver or gold. The receipts themselves can also be used to purchase everyday items.

The second issue is that man made instruments are exchanged for real wealth at an accelerating rate. Those that have saved U.S. "dollars" decide to buy something with them. The problem is that once this transfer begins there is not many places to find safety. Because money represents something that can be use presently or stored for future use this shift becomes very intriguing. Although the major shift is into commodities, which of the commodities are able to fulfill the ability to be spend presently or store value for future use?

Yes, land and real estate can and will be used, but land is not very liquid. The only real places to transfer the financial asset class is into the metals.

What would happen if one of our foreign exchange partners running a balance of trade surplus decided to use some US dollars ( bond holdings) to buy real wealth? It would have to funnel money into the area slowly because too big a buy at one time would move the market a great deal. Once this shift was seen by the market the tendency is for others to follow.

Mexico is considering using its silver as a financial store of value. Some banks actually offer their customers money as defined above. This is a noble and valiant act. Some economists in Mexico have argued that the Mexican people have imported about as much U. S. paper as ever need and it might be wise to recycle this paper.

Grupo Elektra, quoted on the NYSE under symbol EKT, and Banco de Mexico, Mexico's Central Bank, have signed a contract authorizing Grupo Elektra as a distributor of Banco de Mexico's "Libertad" one ounce silver .999 coin, which has no face value and is legal tender under certain circumstances.

Grupo Elektra operates 550 stores throughout Mexico. It will initiate operations in silver sales and repurchases from the public at five stores in the Cuernavaca area, for the purpose of gathering experience in this field, which is new to the company. National expansion will follow shortly thereafter.

An interesting question to ask yourself is "When or under what circumstances would silver ( or gold) be the most valuable? This question poses some interesting aspects because it tests your own belief system. Do you trust the government or the source? The most important time may be when the man made asset class loses value and is shunned in favor of something real. Since there are too many paper claims outstanding versus the amount of silver or gold available not everyone will be able to shift into a financial asset that has stood the test of five millennia.

Sooner or later, nearly everyone everywhere will catch on to the fact that the currency game is drawing to a close, that all fiat currencies are doomed. Action in the marketplace, suggests this recognition is spreading; using gold back internet currencies, and the potential for a major silver producer (Mexico) to encourage its people to obtain value based money. A flight from all national currencies into real values is developing and will gain momentum. Ultimately people not government determine what money is and what money is not.

July 10, 2001 - David Morgan

Spooky Tooth (07/09/01; 19:01:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 57786)
ORO
Is it possible for you to surface somewhere
with an eye to the continuing Von Mises saga.

Netking (7/9/01; 18:54:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 57785)
"Homestake & Barrick" continued - SJ Kaplan's view . . . .
Kaplan Question On Barrick:
What do you think of Barrick Gold's acquisition of Homestake Mining?

ANSWER:
Barrick could have saved at least 25% of their money simply by waiting a mere two weeks for a lower Homestake share price (savings of 15%), and by paying a premium of 20%, which would have been more than sufficient (the actual premium was 31%; this would have represented an additional savings of 11%). With real patience they could have saved 40%, simply by waiting for commercials to go heavily net long COMEX gold futures. I guess that Barrick doesn't follow (or simply chooses to ignore, as do 90% of gold investors) the traders' commitments, which is interesting, since they are one of the largest commercials represented in those commitments. Since Peter Munk's departure as CEO, Barrick has made several poor management decisions; this has to be worrisome to investors considering Barrick's status as a heavy player in the gold hedging market. Of course, real "goldbugs" don't own Barrick anyway, given their long-standing policy of essentially selling short gold whenever its price is perceived to be overvalued. Given the relatively large number of gold mining companies for its small total market capitalization, consolidation in the industry is likely to continue at about the same pace that it has proceeded over the past several years (i.e., about two or three mergers per year). A look at Royal Gold's (RGLD) stock price over the past week suggests that it is currently a possible takeover target, but that is just my guess, not based on any inside information.

Black Blade (7/9/01; 18:54:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 57784)
Yesterday and Today

YESTERDAY

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."

Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

TODAY:

"I continue to believe that the prospects for long-term global prosperity are better now than at any time in our history."

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill

Black Blade: Hmmm�

GOLD - Cheap Insurance - Proven Protection!

R Powell (7/9/01; 18:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 57783)
Sierra Madre
There are so many variables that will determine whether in or de flation awaits the U.S. dollar that I know only that I don't know.
But I might be able to give some thought on some of the pieces. A humongous amount of U.S. denominated paper debt (money) is being held outside the borders of the U.S. Japan alone is reported to hold trillions in U.S. treasuries. If/when this foreign held debt (sometimes called Bigfloat) returns, then it will definitely be inflation.
I also believe confidence in the percieved health of the U.S. as a whole and the U.S. economy in particular is essential to stabilize the world's currencies simply because the U.S. currency is so widely used and held as a comparitively safe store of value. Not as safe as gold or silver but, if you had to hold your wealth as currency, which would you choose? If the world decides to unload dollars, again I see inflation.
Also, should we limit our guesses to one or the other, inflation or deflation? How about one (deflation) for a short time followed by the other (inflation). How about an inflation of currency and at the same time a deflation (meaning scarcity) of tangible stores of value (gold).
Rich

Perplexed (7/9/01; 18:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57782)
TG and Another
I will perhaps raise the ire of some of the die hard TG and Another fans on the site, but is it possible that he/they just ran out of something new to add to the discussion?
In the recent discussion with ORO it was quite plain that his was not the only viable position.

When Randy and TG decreed that theirs was the only correct answer to the question
poised by Randy and the subsuquant discussion on what is and what is not money, he and Randy had painted themselves into a corner.

We discovered that there are as many definitions of money as there are participants to the Forum. Thus for TG to directly contridict a long standing statement by Another
and then attempt to reconcile that position by suggesting that perhaps it was not a contridiction, but a misinterpretation of Anothers statement by many of the other posters, it came across to me as less than a class act. I stated then and I will state now that the definition of money, like the definition of beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

It was quite clear to me then and even with out Kirks rather graphic presentation, it is clear to me now that circumstance and location play a major role in that
definition.

We all transcribe our thoughts, forged from our experiences into the written word, it can be no other way. TG can no more write from Kirks position than Kirk can from his.

We are headed into some times that will indeed try mens souls, this is the message transmitted so eloquently by TG and Another from a position overlooking virtually
unlimited power.

The subject matter of this forum derives it source from conduct more despicable than any thing described by Kirk.
While Kirk was describing sexual prostitution as the end product, the death, degradation, and vulgur conduct of the
expolitive political prostitution at the highest levels of "polite society" has set the world on a collision course with disaster.

If TG and Another harbor any illusion that what they are describing is going to come to pass peacefully, orderly and with no blood shed they are in for the surprise of
their lives.

With an economic system with the philosophy that regardless of how much "money" you have at your disposal it is not enough, it is inevitable, that the quest for power and wealth lead through a sewer in which the biggest turd floats to the top.

The result is that we have created millions of what those in polite society consider disposable people,and more are hatching daily. This is as it has always been, and has resulted in progressively uglier wars and uprisinging.
Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Amen, are just examples of this way of thinking that most of us can relate too.

Pick up the book Fatal Shore, relating the populating of Australia if you care to take a look at Great Britians view of the"underclass".

The world population is spiriling upward and the natural resourses required to just keep these uneeded people fed is spiriling downward even faster.

Anyone easily offened by a mere look into the gutter, is, in all likihood, facing a heart attack when the reality of the conditions required for gold and silver to fly finally materializes.

Presently a box of 50 9mm cartridges can be purchased for under $ 15.00 FRN. When it hits the fan, they will be one of the first items no longer available for FRN.

Question: If your life is depending upon a weapon for which you need ammunition how do you price it in gold?

WHICH IS MONEY AND WHICH IS MERCHANDISE--GOLD OR LEAD
APPROPRIATELY PACKAGED?

CIRCUMSTANCE MY FRIENDS, CIRCUMSTANCES!

TG I have learned much for your discussions and agree with most of it. However most of us know your way of thinking and if we have not gained the expertise from all the varied opinions expressed on this forum to derive a considered assessment, then it has been a waste of time.

If the task has become an ordeal and an irritation, then I understand, and agree with, your decision. And it is always a good feeling to know that you are missed.

Perplexed

GFD (7/9/01; 18:39:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 57781)
Mr. Kosares
You have my permission to release my email address to TG/FOA if the occasion should ever arise. As someone who has followed this story from the early days of Big Trader/The Writer on Kitco I would like to continue walking along this trail. Thank you.

Black Blade (7/9/01; 18:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 57780)
California Energy Crisis Tags Gold Miners

The high cost of energy due to the California energy crisis has taken a toll on Western miners. California has been the canary in the mine. Now we see how the higher costs of energy are causing ripple effects throughout the region. Energy has been diverted from other states in the Western US to provide energy for the state of California. This has had the effect of creating an energy shortage that has hit miners as well. Mining is an energy intensive venture. First we heard of Phelps Dodge's energy woes as the copper miner had to cut back operations due to high energy costs. Then other miners such as Montana Resources, another copper miner in Butte, Montana had to shutdown due higher costs. Next came the gold miners in Montana, California, and Nevada.

Newmont, Placer Dome, and Barrick had cut back some phases of their operations and laid off more workers due to lower gold prices and also because of high energy costs. Most of these miners have mature operations that have progressed to where sulfide and carbonaceous ores are being mined. These ores need to be processed by some of the most energy intensive methods. Usually in a "Shake and Bake" operation where the ores are milled and cooked in autoclaves before placed on the heaps for cyanide leaching. Some mines are underground and are even more costly to mine. It has been said that many recent top management meetings among Nevada miners focused on the high cost of energy.

The US is one of the world's top producers of gold and these mines are on the verge of closure, partly due to low gold prices and partly due to high energy costs. The net effect is that the supply of gold coming to markets is likely to drop. Miners that have sold forward are locked in to a price that will soon be well below the true costs (total cost) of production. If and when the free market comes around to gold, then the forward sold miners will also take a hit from a rising POG.

Snippit from GATA

NUCLEAR WINTER

A long time reliable source has informed The Caf� that Nuclear Winter is about to hit Elko, Nevada. Newmont Mining has shut down the giant Gold Quarry mine and a "strong rumor" has it that they will lay off 600 employees in August; that their geologists are worried about being laid off; and, lastly, that Yanacocha may sink due to Peruvian political problems.

Bill Murphy

It should also be noted that there have been several layoffs already for reasons outlined above. There are rumors that a series of layoffs are soon to hit Barrick's and Placer Dome's operations in Nevada as well. There is rumor that these miners will also shutdown a couple of their mines (placed on "Care and Maintenance"). Some operations will probably be sold if a buyer can be found or spun off and allowed to fail so that the companies won't likely be faced with reclamation and remediation costs above and beyond the reclamation bond, a cost that will be passed on to the taxpayer. This will probably not happen with the US based miners. In a sense, the California energy crisis will probably be cause for a rising POG, not just because of associated higher inflation, but because of reduced supply. We could easily be headed toward "Interesting Times."

Randy (@ The Tower) (7/9/01; 18:24:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 57779)
Have U.S. dollars, will sell.
http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Co0KSqb9DtJa5mtqWmdm2&FQ=p%25rco%20and%20c%25%25frx
In the face of a weak domestic currency the central bank of Brazil today opted to sell dollars for reals in the foreign exchange market.

How many other central banks stand ready to select and sell dollars (or bonds) when advantageous, preferentially keeping gold for a rainy day? The mark-to-market reserve model of the euro system offers an attractive alternative to the old IMF-supported dollar-based international reserve structure. Brazil's neighbor, Argentina, is already moving boldly away from dollars.

megatron (7/9/01; 17:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 57778)
Seirra Madre
The amount of bonds issued is truly staggering when you realize it's a 10 times larger 'market' than the present 'totally out of whack equity bubble'. As the 'money' flees or evaporates it will run to T-bills and Money market funds, all denominated in ,guess what, $US. As the market ramps down the mournful cries "help us, Easy Al, our savior"
will ring in his altruistic ears, and magic interest rate cuts will drive the bond prices higher yet.

Yes we will have wicked stagflation, not deflation,per se.

Randy (@ The Tower) (7/9/01; 17:37:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 57777)
G10 central bankers speak out
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010709/l0990631_3.html
Eddie George said after the meeting that the "strong dollar" was doing harm to the U.S. economy while causing inflationary pressures elsewhere, i.e., Europe. When asked if the group had discussed the concerns by US manufacturers against a strong dollar, he revealed how delicately their group of officials treads around these matters, even amongst themselves. He said, "No. I think that was absolutely recognized that the combination of exchange rates is having in many senses perverse effects. ... Equally it is a factor which is exerting a negative effect on the U.S. economy through the trade accounts. So we talk about it in that sense but not in more detail than that."

In keeping with this theme of "perverse", earlier in the week ECB vice president Christian Noyer described the current exchange rate with the euro as "ridiculous", pricing U.S. manufactures out of various markets.

Of particular interest to our clientele with substantial exposure to the dollar is that this article indicated that there yet remained room for additional rate cuts by the Fed (meaning, "easier money"), while at the same time no similar hint was made that the euro block could or should also be expected to lower rates.

Protect your purchasing power with a prudent diverisfication into gold at a this time when low gold prices reflect these "perverse" (and temporary) conditions.

CoBra(too) (07/09/01; 17:31:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 57776)
Some Quotes from Bill Buckler' Privateer ...
...And his early July 01 issue sounds right out of the horse's mouth and bears a similarity to what A/FOA were preaching here - but first let me comment on the preparation of the G7+1 Genoa head of state Summit over this last weekend in Rome - by the G7 +1 spectator finance ministers - resolution, if you'd like to call it that!

"The global economy needs more stimulus, so lower interest rates, boost monetary aggregates and if you can't do more ... you'll never be sore!"

I, personally wouldn't wonder if Mr. Koizumo of Japan would tell his counterpart Mr. G.W.B. - been there, tried that and more to correct our own bubblemania. Even though now I'm kinda' sore you guys don't accept the fact, there's more to keep an economy on even keel as the printing money of hegemon(e)y and pricing all real goods and services to the advantage of the consumers of last resort.
- After all, we're paying in real US$'s and not in any "Rea`l, Peso, Lira or Rub(b)le et al", and never mind if it's on credit, margin, or even the third home loan (not mentioning credit cards - far gone)- , yes real US$'s, ... keepin' the gobal economy afloat - as the last resort of 'import'!
- Hey, we've only doubled our external debt over the last 12 months and as it took us ten (10)years to increase our current account from 48 Billion to 449,3 Billion US$ , of course, we've still got the option to do worse.

... and as it's getting late to state some of the 'Privateer's' messages, I'll only state that the US aims to perpetuate the rule of its 'un-ruly' money - Honey, to monetary supremacy ... See you - after Genoa, or better believe in the battle of currency - cb2

PS: No real quotes from Bill B. - though I expect either he or me (great idiosyncrasy) will detect it's time to follow up, or I'll defect!

PH in LA (07/09/01; 17:24:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 57775)
Note to FOA/Another

Dear Kind Sirs:

I returned yesterday from several days spent sailing to find that you had decided to leave the forum. Please count my voice as one of the many who is dismayed that this should happen.

Certainly, you are both astute enough to know that one post (or perhaps two) do little to set the tone of this forum. Your own contributions, on the other hand, have been pivitol. Without them, this forum would never have become the beacon of understanding that it is. I hope that you will continue to think of us and even consider sharing your knowledge and perspectives as events unfold. From one who admittedly posts infrequently, rest assured that I will continue to monitor these pages looking forward to your return. As long as there is a USAgold forum, your place here will be reserved. And there is no way that you can keep us from "watching this gold market together" with you because we know, whatever happens, you will be watching it.

So will we!

Sierra Madre (07/09/01; 16:55:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 57774)
Bond Speculation...the incipient problem??
I'd like to return to a theme I have already mentioned, because I feel it should be examined by the best brains posting and lurking at this Forum.

I refer to the paper recently published by Prof. Antal E. Fekete, regarding the possible deflation that confronts the US.

The idea is that notwithstanding the aggressive pumping of money into the US economy, the dollar is NOT weaker, nor are prices rising as much as could be expected, nor is business recovering with increased sales. Why is this happening?

What is happening, Fekete suggests, if I understand him rightly, already happened in the massive deflation of the 30's; Roosevelt certainly did everything he and his advisers could think of, to get the US economy back on its feet, but failed; from 1930 to 1941, there was DEPRESSION. Why? Because the money went where it was not supposed to go. In the 20's, the excessive creation of credit went into the stock market, producing the great boom of the late 20's. After the crack, and Roosevelt came into office, money creation was stimulated as much as possible, but the money did not resuscitate the stock market, or the general economy. The problem was falling prices, everywhere. Where was the money going? (It took a war to break the jinx).

The money was going into BOND SPECULATION. As interest rates fell, bond prices rose; I am told the bond market is ten times the size of the stock market. The declared objective of lowering interest rates, meant that the declared policy of the Fed was to RAISE BOND PRICES; a guarantee of success for bond speculators, and that is where the money went.

It MAY be, that what we are witnessing is the beginning of such a process. Question: Bond speculation in US Treasuries is now, not just the only game in town, it's the only game in the world, if you think about it. (?) This market is drawing in speculative money from all corners of the world, for that reason. And this, is the new support for the dollar, now that the stock market binge is over. ----Any opinions on this at this Forum?

Keynesian doctrine is that the Central Bank buys bonds and puts money into circulation, to boost business. What that doctrine left out, is that new money put into circulation may go into such areas as Bond Speculation, and indeed, did that in the 30's, and can do that again. Keynes never touched on this possibility. The more the Fed lowers interest rates, the higher bond prices will go. The Fed creates such an incentive that Bond Market speculation acts like a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking up money from every corner - in Fekete's expression. This is nothing but DEFLATION for the economy, and inflation - of the Bond Market prices.

I am not about to become a bond speculator. But, this theory may portend a severe deflation where financial asset values (other than Treasuries and perhaps some AAA companies?) come into question, as the economy contracts under falling prices and massive bankruptcies. This will cause increasing fear of placing funds into such assets, and the only logical place for refuge will be - precious metals, especially gold - or government bonds.

These too, will eventually crack, and suddenly the deflation will turn into a virulent general inflation, as money flees the bonds for the only remaining refuge- tangible assets, and the prime tangible asset with unquestioned liquidity: meaning gold.

This is what I gather from Fekete's paper. I think it merits careful study. Would the brains on this Forum, kindly focus on this subject?

Thanks to ALL.

Sierra

Netking (07/09/01; 16:44:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 57773)
401-K Plans hit. . .
CNBC said that despite the fact American workers contributed $214 Billion into their 401-K REIREMENT PLANS last year, THEY LOST $72 BILLION IN VALUE OVER THE PREVIOUS YEAR.

CNBC also mentioned those employees who put their 401-K monies in the stock of their employer suffered the most. They gave the example of Lucent Technology employees, many of whose 401-K plans are chock-full of LU shares. Well, LU stock HAS LOST 88% of its 1999 high value.

There has NEVER been a better time to buy gold, go get you some!

Randy (@ The Tower) (07/09/01; 16:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 57772)
Fed says, "Strong dollar? Spend all you want... we'll make more."
A recap of today's open market operations in which debt-collateral is monetized to bolster reserves of the banking system. Was bolstering needed? Not from the standpoint of Monetary Policy! The market in overnight federal funds among banks was trading with ample liquidity -- at 3.31 percent, well under the FOMC target of 3.75 percent.

Fed adds $2 billion to banking reserves with overnight repurchase agreements.

Fed adds $4.755 billion through overnight repurchase agreements.

Fed permanently adds $469 million through the outright purchase of U.S. Treasuries dated November 2021 to February 2029.

Mountain Top (07/09/01; 15:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 57771)
FOA/TG
Sir, Allow me to add my voice to those asking that you stay and thanking you for services rendered beyond price. I am doubly pained to think that the loss of your voice on ths forum comes about because of a misunderstanding on the one hand and an obscene OT post on the other. Speaking as a long time lurker, I know that the offensive post is not typical of this forum or I would not be a long time lurker.

Except for the one defence of the tastless post as beng somehow acceptable since it came from a person percieved to be black,(a racist attitude to be sure) I saw no other post which supported such trash.

My mother (long since passed away) used to say, "Wise men change their minds, fools never do." I do not mean to infer that if you do not change your mind that you are a fool. Hardly, but sometimes sober reflection lets one see a particular situation in a different light

Mountain Top (07/09/01; 15:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 57770)
FOA/TG
Sir, Allow me to add my voice to those asking that you stay and thanking you for services rendered beyond price. I am doubly pained to think that the loss of your voice on ths forum comes about because of a misunderstanding on the one hand and an obscene OT post on the other. Speaking as a long time lurker, I know that the offensive post is not typical of this forum or I would not be a long time lurker.

Except for the one defence of the tastless post as beng somehow acceptable since it came from a person percieved to be black,(a racist attitude to be sure) I saw no other post which supported such trash.

My mother (long since passed away) used to say, "Wise men change their minds, fools never do." I do not mean to infer that if you do not change your mind that you are a fool. Hardly, but sometimes sober reflection lets one see a particular situation in a different light

sector (07/09/01; 14:58:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 57769)
@uponroof About the "Strong Dollar Policy"
How can there be a "Strong Dollar Policy" in a purported free currency market?

If one imagines the Exchange Stabilization Fund and it's $40 Billion as the official intervention vehicle then one is mistaken, since the ESF's funds are completely inadaquate to influence the trillions of daily money flows in the currency markets. So how do you get to establish a "Strong Dollar Policy" in the first instance?

Follow the money to the Interest Rate Derivative daily float...at ONE bank...JPMorgan Chase. Their $17.7 Trillion changing positions produce enough to "contro"l the currency markets. The free currency markets aren't free.

Indeed, the stupendous level of JPMC's IRD's is ample proof of the exteme distortion, stress and systemic risks which the master of the universe has delivered to the US. It has deteriorated so far that this IRD mountain is necessary to keep the game moving upward.

On Everest, above 26,000 feet, alpinists operate in the "Death Zone". They can't stay there for very long...even on pure oxygen since it's partial pressure at that altitude delivers so little O2 through the lining of the lungs. The Dollar has enetred the "Death Zone" at 120. Like alpinists, it can't stay too long and also like alpinists it will come down fast.

That is when gold floats.

goldfan (07/09/01; 13:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 57768)
Euro gold markets
This is a question I posed some time ago, and part of FOA's response plus my thoughts since...

ME------ "I do not understand FOA's statement that because the ECB decrees it, gold will not be anywhere, lent or borrowed. Seems to me that what I do with my gold is outside any jurisdiction of the ECB, and the same is true of many others" ---------------

FOA>>>>Actually GOLDFAN, your feelings were easily comparable to those of drinkers during our American prohibition. Alcohol was against the law but people did it anyway. In many ways
people's actions are the free market that is so powerful against government laws. During the war, everything from cigarettes to rubber was rationed and outlawed from typical use. Still, the market often overcame the law. Heck, even today, drugs and any number of other illegal activities are done as the law has little ability to stop the same.

But that's not the kind of law what this vision of a Free Gold market will depend on. These examples above outline rules and laws that restrict actions. For any wealth law to have an effect, it would have to be a known official protocol on the recourse side of disputed claims. Almost like how the dollar Legal Tender is a law in the US and mostly a protocol in the rest of the world. It regulates how you settle currency debts everywhere but has no real jurisdiction overseas. Except through IMF agreements.<<<<<

>>>>On gold settlement, the comex did as much when it changed it's rules on silver during the 1980 hunt fiasco. By stopping the hunts from settling their futures contracts in physical silver, they stopped real people from dealing silver thru contract. At least on that exchange.<<<<<

ME.....Yes but!! The Hunts were denied the silver they were owed. And their contract was not enforceable in law. Because the Comex, for that one transaction, was deemed to be above the law. If the Comex had always behaved this way, it would have ceased to exist If an exchange which exists for the sole purpose of facilitating trading in futures contracts on physical goods
routinely reneges on its commitments, it won't be used. Yet FOA says the EU is planning to set up just such an exchange??? I don't believe it!.....

FOA>>>>>>I don't expect the EBES (Euro Bullion Exchange System or whatever type name they use) to act exactly, but in the same spirit. No one is going to tell anyone they cannot enter into gold contracts. Sure, we will be able to borrow, lend, option or sell gold all we want. But, unlike those overt alcohol laws during prohibition, today's gold party people be able to drink all they want. (smile) That is deal in all the gold collateral you want. But, if any of those deals go bad because the other side wants to walk, instead of deliver, you will have to settle in cash. In a Euro court of law, no one could bind you to physical settlement if the deal was in Euro Legal Tender. Even if it was in the contract. You would have to accept cash, if contested.<<<<<

ME......To me, this says that if I buy gold from a big depository, a bank, or an exchange warehouse, I could be greatly at risk if I want to store my gold there, even for one day. The warehouse receipt I get will always be at risk of being defaulted on, and I have to accept a payment in Euros, maybe based on some "rigged price", when what I want and need is the gold I stored, for use in my business, or because I want to take it somewhere that I can get a better price for it than locally. This says the European courts will not recognize the existence of gold. It says, that those crazy enough to store their gold in a warehouse for safekeeping, may be given fictitious warehouse receipts. It allows the warehouse to print receipts like money, to expand the supply of paper gold once more!!! As long as they can legally deliver money, instead of gold, they'll never be found out. Surely this will lower the value of warehouse receipts in this jurisdiction, compared to the value of warehouse receipts in some country like Barbados, where they are smart enough to say that gold contracts are enforceable in law? Won't this result in a steady flow of gold into such jurisdictions, away from Europe? Surely it is stretching credulity to suppose that large holders of gold will always be willing and able to build and maintain their own secure storage facilities?

Elsewhere FOA says the EU plans to get international agreement to a scheme to tax gold heavily at the mines, and every time it is sold or traded by individuals. I suppose this could be like gasoline, or tobacco, except that gold is different. It isn't as easy to produce and it isn't used up the way these other commodities are. It's also easier to smuggle, 100's of times less volume for the same fiat value, and not detectable by sniffer dogs. What's to stop me selling my gold for slightly less in a jurisdiction where there is no tax on the transaction, and then using international banking facilities to access the funds?

Of course, the answer for me could be just to make sure my own stash is safe. But that leaves the question of what kind of an economic system were we going to be dealing with, and how can I envision using my small hoard, to assist in the survival of myself and family?......

FOA>>>>> But in the future the dollar reserve and it's credit gold market will be in a shambles with people running all over the globe just looking for a place to deal gold at all. Credit gold will be a joke by then as trillions of losses will be outstanding.

The effect of all this would be to drive most every portion of physical gold dealings into "on the spot" buying and selling. Mostly in Euros. A mine could still borrow, using the value of gold as collateral, but it would only be the "cash value" of that gold that could be used in settlement (if the deal went to court). OR physical settlement if both sides had no problem (and stayed out of court).<<<<<

ME....To me this says anyone loaning against gold as collateral could not expect to be delivered the gold in case of a default. The courts won't recognize gold to settle the debt. So if the debtor can't or won't pay cash, and has only gold, the creditor is shafted. Nobody would loan against collateral they can't recover and sell to pay the debt. I would be very interested to hear what a lawyer would make of this proposal.

Admit I'm fuzzy about all this. But I think ORO has a lot better handle on the outcome of the ECB schemes described by FOA, than FOA has. IMHO.

Sure would like some response to this

FWIW

Goldfan

justamereBear (07/09/01; 13:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 57767)
Test

Test

uponroof (07/09/01; 13:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 57766)
Just found a few more mainstream articles on the 'evil' strong dollar.
Within a few months the term 'strong dollar' will have a completely different meaning. How will the FED and O'Neill spin this!

Sorry to be repetitive but I am amazed at the bad ink now coming out on the 'strong dollar'. What disaster lies ahead when all investors, great and small, come to believe a strong dollar is bad for their wealth? Could this shift in understanding by the masses be the trigger that nukes the Stock Market?

I can see no other way out of this mess than competitive currency devaluations....otherwise known as worldwide inflation. Perfect soil for growing your gold wealth.

later

Old Yeller (07/09/01; 12:56:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 57765)
Financial chicken,American style
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html

Ah,the bastion of growth and free enterprise,no wonder the world can't get enough of the good ol'FRN.Pretty shocking statistic,net external debt skyrockets in 1 YEAR from 1.52 tr. to 2.19tr.,a mere 44% increase.Add to that this year's first half current account deficit of approx.$210bn.and the picture gets even more foreboding.It's a good thing the media shills and Mr.O'Neill are there to reassure all of the strong dollar policy.

Gold,the only currency that is not tainted by media spin,official deception and international duplicity.

Flatlander (07/09/01; 12:11:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 57764)
Clarification
By FOA's definition of a small holder of physical gold, I am a large holder of physical gold. Purchased from Michael by the way.

Flatlander (07/09/01; 12:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 57763)
The Traveler
Sir, I doubt that I have missed any of your previous posts at this forum. From them I had decided that you were educated, intellegent, and very successfull in your endeavors.

I find your last post to FOA, Trail Guide, and Another to be a complete disapointment. You attack all the posters as
rabble who have no brains and are incapable of an intelligent thought and certainly should be on the receiving end of your distain! You then list your wealth and request an entrance into FOA's private group since you would be of like mind!

For your edification, not all of the lurkers or posters are holders of small portions of physical gold. Given the definition posted earlier by FOA, I am certainly not one! I, however, do not hold this site, nor these many posters, in the same low esteem that you do!

If FOA does contact you and this is the way of the privelaged few to sip champagne and laugh at the unwashed, then I want to be with the unwashed.

Respectfully,
Flatlander

Econoclast (07/09/01; 12:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 57762)
Mr. Kosares
If/When TG/FOA contacts you, please offer him my email address if he feels he would ever desire to contact me. I would appreciate it.

uponroof (07/09/01; 11:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 57761)
Persona Non Grata Strong Dollar.......driven by "The Abyss Scenario"
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/08/business/08WATC.html?searchpv=day01
The N.Y. Times, mainstream as it gets, is attacking the strong dollar.

The Stock Market folks, the most important, select group in the world today, are finally coming to grips with the NEGATIVES of our strong dollar. Yes, the Stock Market media has begun attacking the strong dollar.

Will wonders ever cease! How long before we see Peter Jennings, with that irratating long puss of his, lamenting on the many complex problems our strong dollar is causing? My my my, how times are changing.

From the article:

"...The free fall in stock prices on Friday indicates that investors may finally be focusing on how much trouble the soaring currency means for corporate profits as well as the economy..."

What's driving the dollar?.....James Paulsen CIO of Wells Capital Management calls it "The Abyss Scenario". Simply put: "Whenever the nation's economy shows signs of further weakening, investors seem to fear that other world economies will fare far worse than that of the United States. As a result, they flock to the dollar."

I wonder how much of the investment world realizes that the negative global perception of the U.S. economy is responsible for the dollar's strength? Most smaller investors are under the assumption that the dollar is strong due to foreign investment, which is only half of the perception. The catch phrase 'safe haven', which the dollar now owns, does not explain the foreign reasoning which starts the negative ball rolling.

If we are to believe that the Stock Market is the most important segment of our economy, how does the FED deal with this changing perception and new awareness of it's investors?

My friends, this all adds up to: gold is about to be unleashed. The only question is, can they contain it?
*********************************

July 8, 2001

Market Watch: Robust Dollar May Be Too Mighty for Its Own Good

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

The strong dollar is burning a hole in the stock market's pocket. And it's likely to get bigger in the coming months.

Hitting a high for 2001 last Thursday, the trade-weighted United States dollar index is up 9.5 percent. The free fall in stock prices on Friday indicates that investors may finally be focusing on how much trouble the soaring currency means for corporate profits as well as the economy. The Dow Jones industrials lost 2.4 percent for the week, while the Nasdaq slumped 7.2 percent.

The dollar's impressive showing is all the more amazing as it has come despite aggressive policy moves by the Federal Reserve Board. The Fed has cut interest rates significantly this year and has also pumped up the supply of money in the financial system. Normally, such actions make the dollar less attractive to investors and keep it in check against other currencies.

The rising dollar has also defied the slowdown in the growth of the nation's gross domestic product and its trade deficit. Both developments typically put pressure on a currency.

This time, the dollar is reacting differently. And that means the second-half recovery that so many investors have been awaiting may take longer to arrive.

"A lower dollar has always been a crucial piece of exiting a slowdown," explained James Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "It takes the heat off domestic prices and puts manufacturing back into an expansionary mode, reducing job losses. We're getting none of that help now."

What's driving the dollar? The investor perception that even though the United States economy is slowing the dollar remains the world's safe-haven currency. Oddly, whenever the nation's economy shows signs of further weakening, investors seem to fear that other world economies will fare far worse than that of the United States. As a result, they flock to the dollar.

Mr. Paulsen calls this the abyss scenario. Whatever its name, it is playing havoc with the Fed's attempts to revitalize the economy. The year-over- year change in United States exports came in at a negative 1.2 percent in April, compared with a peak growth rate of 15.3 percent in June 2000. And the strong dollar is keeping commodity prices in the cellar, putting the manufacturing sector in a vise.

The lofty currency may also undermine consumer spending, which has been the only bright spot on the nation's dreary economic scene. With their profits squeezed by the dollar, companies will be more likely to cut additional jobs. "Consumer spending's relatively superb showing is being jeopardized by the slackening of the U.S. labor market," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service. "Household expenditures cannot forever evade the downward pull of rising unemployment."

Unfortunately, Mr. Paulsen sees little likelihood that the dollar will decline significantly soon. One reason for this is his expectation that Europe's central bank will move to lower its interest rates shortly, making the dollar even more attractive to investors. "If the dollar has gone up when our rates are falling and their rates are not, how strong will it get when they start dropping in a big way?" he asked.

Prices of some stocks already reflect the bad news relating to the dollar, according to Mr. Paulsen. These include consumer staples and health care companies with big overseas markets � Gillette, Coca-Cola and Merck are three. But stocks of automakers and companies in the basic materials sector are vulnerable if the strong dollar pushes a domestic economic recovery into 2002.

"The inability to weaken the U.S. dollar poses a daunting challenge for policy officials," Mr. Paulsen said.

Mr. Greenspan, meet Mr. Greenback.

BH (07/09/01; 11:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 57760)
FOA - Trail Guide - Another@The Traveler#57758
Great idea, Sir Traveler!

I'm only a lurker, but a real PGA. So, in any case, I authorize the Tower to release my e-mail address to FOA as well.

ROSEBUD99 (07/09/01; 11:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 57759)
Trail Guide / Another
I wish to thank you both for all you hard work here. Your teachings have truely been taken to heart. Without your visions my family and I would still be just a "western gold bug" . You have helped me make sense of a crazy economic world where all the signs were ponting in different directions. Please do not feel low.... This is one lurkers
life that you have made a difference in. THANK YOU !! :)
Wish that I was so fortuneate to be one of those that you will be debating with in private.

MK
A big THANK YOU for for having the forsight to have such a wonderful place where TG, Another, and others could provide their views. :)

Randy: Thanks for all your hard work too. Look forward to reading all your postings. :)

The Traveler (07/09/01; 10:49:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 57758)
FOA - Trail Guide - Another
I have long admired your patience and tolerance of the rabble at this site. So few posters have shown even a cursory understanding of the "big picture" presented in your strategic posts. Many of the ones who do grasp your visionary thoughts seem to reject them based upon understandings from the past. They simply don't understand the political and economic realities of today and tomorrow. A lot of national pride also blocks their path to enlightened understanding as do their values (the "rights" of the individual vs. the "rights" of the community being but one example).

Though I may not assign the same probability of outcome to certain tactical events that you foresee, I concur with your vision and have further positioned my wealth accordingly.

Most posters will rush to sell all their physical gold and mining shares long before gold cracks $400 an ounce and then cry in their beer as gold assumes its rightful place as the preeminent wealth asset.

As one who counts his golden wealth in kilos and his energy wealth in MBOE, I desire to stay in touch with a mind of your caliber. We shall toast to our good fortune and drink champagne together in the near future.

The Tower is hereby authorized to release my e-mail address to FOA. I look forward to a confidential communication from you. Until then, I remain,

Appreciatively yours....

Randy (@ The Tower) (07/09/01; 09:38:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 57757)
In the continuing pursuit for excellence against stiff odds in a tough environment...
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/MundellGresham.html
Thanks to the Saturday efforts of MK and our new Gilded Opinion Editor, we have been fortunate to receive the blessings of 1999 Nobel Laureate Dr. Robert Mundell for the use of his paper which demonstrates the working force of Gresham's Law upon money through history.

In a lecture four years ago delivered at St. Vincent College ("The International Monetary System in the 21st Century: Could Gold Make a Comeback"), Dr. Mundell warned, "After 1971, when the Golden Anchor was lifted, inflation control had to depend on the slender reed of Federal Reserve discipline. The result was pandemic inflation that has all the characteristics of becoming a permanent feature that future generations will have to cope with."

This paper on Gresham's law will help you understand how the "the theory of rational economic behavior" will lead people's actions as they cope with an inflationary supply of credit.

A string of excerpts from the URL given above:

-------Gresham's Law is not a statement about static conditions; it is a statement about dynamic process. "Good money drives out bad if they exchange for the same price" is an acceptable expression of Gresham's Law. But a better statement of it is that "Cheap money drives out dear, if they exchange for the same price." Put in this way, Gresham's Law becomes a theorem of the general law of economy, a consequence of the theory of rational economic behavior.

The motivating force underlying Gresham's Law is economy: we settle a debt or transaction with the cheapest means of payment. The introduction of paper money is a more extreme case of debased or lightened coins in the sense that the value of the material of which money is made is almost nil. Gresham's Law depends on two kinds of money being equivalent for some purposes but not for others. David Hume, writing in 1752, went to great pains to demonstrate that the existence of paper credit would mean a correspondingly lower quantity of gold, and that an increase in paper credit would drive out an equal quantity of gold. (T)he main function of hoards is as a store of value, a form of saving, which reflects a desire to preserve wealth for future use. The composition of hoards is determined partly by Gresham's Law. The profit motive will ensure that the best coins end up in hoards.-------

Thanks again to Dr. Mundell for sharing this with us, and thanks also to MK and our GO Editor for doing the legwork to secure his permission.

Editor, The Gilded Opinion (07/09/01; 09:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 57756)
Announcing
Nobel Prize winner Dr. Robert Mundell makes his second appearance, today, at the Guilded Opinion. The topic: The Uses and Abuses of Gresham's Law Throughout History.

An absorbing read for those who appreciate the difference between good money and bad. Don't miss this oportunity to increase your knowledge about gold.

Orville Goldenbacher (07/09/01; 09:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 57755)
@The Stranger/Trail Guide's Departure
http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/
I don't think he'll be back. He's been itching to quit for some time. T.G. had the "Gold Trail", he didn't have to associate or even acknoledge us lower forms of Gold bugs. The Working Kirk SEX as real money post and Journeyman percieved insult of Another posts were just an excuse to leave, IMHO. I wish T.G. and Another the very best in their future endeavors, i just hope they haven't sold their gold and left us for good!

Trail Guide (06/29/01; 19:56:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 57204)
(No Subject)
Randy,

Thank you, sir. As far as we are concerned,,,,,,,,

****** pull the plug when ready******!!

ge (07/09/01; 09:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 57754)
Trail Guide & Another
I have learned a lot from your analysis of the current situation. I would not be able to see the high probability of paper gold default without your help. Thank you.

It happens that I do not agree with your designs for the future. Classical gold standard is my choice. Bretton Woods with a different reserve currency without a gold anchor appears to be your choice.

Que sera, sera (What will be, will be)

Best Regards,

The Stranger (07/09/01; 09:13:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 57753)
Trail Guide's Departure
Trust me folks, he'll be back.

uponroof (07/09/01; 09:00:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 57752)
'Gold Rally Looms But Don't Get Greedy'
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A830071A050?OpenDocument
"The gold price has become far too predictable..." Mr. Byron Kennedy's opening line in the above article.

In hindsight it has, but what makes it predictable? Is it ongoing faithful TA? Not in my opinion. The euro was predictable last year as it was was subject to open intervention. Gold is subject to underlying political judgements of which are just now becomming more and more obvious.

He goes on to say the trading range (as of August 2000) is 260-280 with some abnormalities higher and lower from time to time. His words: "...With the precision of hindsight, had one simply bought gold shares when the metal dipped below $265/oz and closed out that position and then short-sold the metal at $272, do that a few times and the 60ft yacht in Monaco would have been long paid off..." (Hear that Pragmatic?)

Mr. Kennedy offers the "crack in lease rates to below 2%" as reason for current short side unpopularity. He goes on to quote a few fund managers who are thinking higher in the near future. Each one conveying in their forcasting the 'new' perspective/trading range. I've got to hand it to Mr. Kennedy for pointing out the now obvious and how it should have been played all along for big bucks. Unfortunately we here are all long bulls and just as painfully patient as the stock market folks who are "in it for the long haul".

His words: "...While the trend is there for everyone to see, the gift horse repeatedly gets asked to open wide. It's become so obvious that one fund manager even admitted that, had he been a trader, cashing in on the gold market is a "no-brainer". Never mind the well-documented GATA conspiracy. Forget about the much-awaited catapult to $320/oz and beyond. Had you simply followed that ghastly clich� - kept the trend your friend � it would have been akin to having exclusivity to print dollars..."

As simple as it sounds, lets not forget "the crack in lease rates" as pivotal, without which gold 'trading' would be much different, much more restricted. Lease rates being the best indicator of physical availability, verify the physical shortge GATA proclaims. The evidence in lopsided derivatives and abusive shorting is overwhelming. 'They' cannot honor their commitments without bankrupting much of the gold industry and several large banks. Whether or not actual conspiracy can be eventually proven 'without a shadow of doubt' is another story.

Regardless, there is a bigger picture to consider. The current comfort level between 260-280 being enjoyed by traders is little more than the cocoon stage as POG evolves from a short ugly caterpillar to a politically correct butterfly. The reason being this butterfly's appetite for paper.

It's the paper dollar's unbreakable strength, it's stranglehold on domestic exporting, equating to our incredible trade imbalance, that has taken control of all markets. Gold, in the middle of this mess, as the dollar's antithesis, is therefore political in every sense of the word. It is 'the answer' several powerful business lobbyists and a growing number of politicians now seek.

Intervention is being called for. The list of supporters growing almost daily. The potential for such political impact has always been there. Certainly not a freely traded commodity between 260-280 to be confidently calculated with TA. The mumblings of a 20 year old intern sleeping with the right politician would be far more credible.

Flatlander (7/9/01; 07:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 57751)
FOA, TG, Another
Your post yesterday brings me out of the shadows again. I am certain that you have been reading the many responses to your post. Most have told you how much they will miss you and the ability to "watch together" as the future of gold unfolds.

In your post you held out to MK an olive branch of sorts when you stated that you would be willing to stay in touch with him privately. I would hope that you do that, perhaps through Randy as you have noted in the past that he has a keen mind and is able to grasp what you are saying. Then they can relate to us your view of the upcoming changes.

You noted that you were experiencing a low because of the events mentioned in your post. After all of the work you have done over the years to "educate" we less connected souls to the inner workings of the international gold finance arena, you indeed must feel a lot of pain to be asked by Another to stop.

Please relay to him that all who read and study here are not crass or vulgar. We are just like him in many ways. We just want to make our futures and that of our families as good as we can.

Thank you for all of your hard work and please try to work something out with Michael.

Now back to the shadows where I sit on a stump of an old tree next to a trail that I hope does not become overgrown through lack of use.

Orville Goldenbacher (7/9/01; 07:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 57750)
M. Kosares
Sir,
Sorry for the misspelling of your name.

Sincerely,
Oreville

Orville Goldenbacher (7/9/01; 07:02:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 57749)
@Henri, Different venue???
How could there be a better venue than this one?

Thank you, CPM, M. Korsases for providing this most excellent venue!

Orville Goldenbacher (7/9/01; 06:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57748)
It is a sad day, indeed!
Trail Guide has made his own decission. It's like you are climbing Mt. Everest, you are 3/4 of the way up this huge mountain, one of the other climber's passes some gas and the Trail Guide quits.

What are we going to do, back down the mountain, or keep climbing? We must be careful whom we choose to lead us along the Golden Trail, I don't want a hot head to lead me and leave me stranded because somebody else cut the cheese.

Climb on fellow Gold hiker's, it won't be long now. The summit is just up ahead, only a few more obstacles in our way. Don't lose the faith now.

Henri (7/9/01; 06:28:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 57747)
On the departure of Another/FOA
I t is a sad day indeed. I feel a deep loss but appreciate the perspective provided and believe that in time it will be proven as the truth. It is my hope that the esteemed pair will reconsider or at least provide some input via a different venue.

Turnaround (7/9/01; 04:24:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 57746)
Trail Guide- unfortunate timing indeed

Sir, I do hope you are able to continue your efforts to educate here in some form, they are very much appreciated by many, as you know. It is very unfortunate that you and the rest of us had to view the foul language in the post you referred to. As you know, it is not at all part of the culture of this "clean and well-lit place", and is no one's responsibility save the poster's. The post from Journeyman does not refer to you.

All the best, and thank you once again for your illuminating prior work.

Turnaround (7/9/01; 04:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 57745)
slingshot- gold confiscation

slingshot (07/08/01; 17:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 57703)
How will they know you have the gold?
Awhile back I read an article which stated that when F.D. Roosevelt made it illegal to own gold that a Goverment person was with you when you opened your safety deposit box."

Sir Slingshot,

This is correct.
Specifically, an IRS 'agent' (which may or may not have been a deputized US officer), and the local banker, I think. There may have also been a Federal Reserve Bank representative present. I have found it extremely difficult to unearth reliable information on this most important historical subject. One of the very best, if not the best, studies I have located is-

"How You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation"
by George R. Cooper, J.D. and Michael J. Kosares

which is available at-
http://www.usagold.com/INFOPACKET.html

Any privately-owned gold coins or bullion found in the safety deposit boxes were removed and confiscated by the IRS agent or the Federal Reserve Bank agent, and replaced with Federal Reserve notes bearing an inscription such as:

REDEEMABLE IN GOLD ON DEMAND
AT THE UNITED STATES TREASURY,
OR IN GOLD OR LAWFUL MONEY
AT ANY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK.

WILL PAY TO THE BEARER ON DEMAND
FIVE DOLLARS

(above copied from a Series 1928 A FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE)
which only applied to non-Americans. Americans were classified as felons, penalty $10,000, 10 years in jail, for using or possessing gold. I have also heard that this was sometimes done without the depositor's knowledge or presence.

This subject is not taught or even mentioned in state-sponsored schools. Several books on that subject are linked at the article below-

=======
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north53.html

Bob Schulz's Dedicated, Misguided Fast Until Death
To: Bob Schulz
From: Gary North
Re: Your fast unto death against the IRS

"Your decision to begin a fast on July 1 reveals a dedication that few people possess. But you have made a bad decision. I pray that you will reverse yourself, not out of fear or discomfort, but out of principle. ..

"Then there is the question of the magnitude of the threat to our liberty posed by the IRS. This agency should not be at the top of any freedom-loving American's list of institutions to be eliminated. Decades ago, R. J. Rushdoony made the point that any call for a tax revolt is futile in modern American society. This nation has for too long placed enormous faith in government-run schools. He concluded: "Americans have willingly tithed their children to the State. They are not about to take a stand against the mere confiscation of their money."

"I implore you to continue your struggle by other means. Call off your fast. Use your Web site to make your case that the tax laws are rigged and technically illegitimate. Move your argument from the verifiable facts of illegal acts by politicians and their appointed bureaucrats to the broader issue of immoral law and immoral voters, who believe in a rewritten Mosaic commandment:

"Thou shalt not steal, except by majority vote."

July 9, 2001

Netking (7/9/01; 03:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 57744)
This week . . .
For those awake. . .looks positive for POG & POS thus far(famous last words). . . gold appears to be firming currently & silver is showing good volatility but with strong support. . .

Netking (7/9/01; 03:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 57743)
Deutsche Bank Keeps Buy On Normandy due to risk of POG up . . . .
Deutsche Bank retains Buy rating for Normandy Mining (NDY) due to "potential for a serious rise in the gold price," noting gold demand already well in excess of mined production; says that this together with a structural shift in bank gold lending, further industry consolidation, more return-focused gold mines and consequently tightened supply could be stimulus for gold price.

AllanC (07/09/01; 03:01:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 57742)
Farfel on ANOTHER FOA topic
My first words for you Mr Farfel is that while your writing style has sometimes packed a punch and left one wanting more, your most recent attack on FOA aka ANOTHER (as you put it) only shows us readers how devoid of substance you really are.

Only a very simple mind would have expected their predictions to bear fruit within their own convenient time frame. At least they have defended their views admirably, unlike yourself who rants and raves because "my gold has gone nowhere...someone must be to blame for it, darn it!."

Of course all the readers remember your little bidding contest promising to deliver the response of one South African mining executive to one of your letters, getting a lot of people here worked up for nothing, and after the flood of responses, what did we hear from you? Absolutely nothing. It seems you only wanted to create a stir, for your own reasons, no doubt.

No sir, you have very little in your character for one to admire, and therefore your pointing the finger on this occasion has essentially no importance. Therefore please continue to refrain from posting here if you wish, and I will not have lost anything for it.

To all:

I would hate to see the posts by J-man and W-Kirk result in these gentlemen (ANOTHER and FOA) leaving the forum. I for one saw no insults directed to anyone in them (though the latter post contained a lot of unnecessary garbage.) In fact it wasn't too long ago Aristotle stopped posting here, for what reason I don't know but I for one miss him. Should we lose any more posters of this caliber this forum will be additionally impoverished.

And finally to ANOTHER and FOA, I am thankful for the time you gentlemen have taken describing your views, I have always been impressed with your rationality and reasonableness and while the outcomes you predict are by no means absolute, they are certainly within the realm of possibility. But I cannot accept your reasons for leaving. Please continue to define your views here. You must.

IronHead (07/09/01; 00:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 57741)
To FOA and Another - "Being There...."
Along with all other's whom posted today, my thoughts and emotions have run the gamut.

There is one simple parable that comes to mind, of Eastern origin, that sums up my feelings best.

Perhaps you each have familiarity with the old zen master, whom is questioned by the young student, about his prowess in dealing with perceived opposition and threats or revulsive behavior - perhaps not with respect to todays events?

So, the young scribe asks the master, "how would you deal with a slew of detractors that constantly challenged your position?" "That would be no problem" - answered the master.

So, the young student asks the master, "what if a small number of them came at you, with bodily harm in mind?" "That would be no problem" - answered the master.

So, the young frustrated pupil asks the master, "what if a hundred men surrounded and attacked you?" "That would be no problem" - answered the master.

So, the quite agitated seito asks the master, "what if an army came at you in the middle of the night, while you slept?" "That would be no problem" - answered the master.

So, now the quite bewildered student pleads with the master, "how can you so easily ignore such brutal attacks and still maintain your position of complete serenity and confidence?"

"This is easy, my inquisitive one.........
I would not be there" - answered the master.

IronHead's thoughts - The story can be interpreted with a number of meanings, please receive it in the manner that best serves you. The converse of this story is the internal requirement to "be there" when personal conviction, reason, and inclination dictate.

Although I have not blindly agreed with, or even fully grasped all that you've both shared during my years of study, I've appreciated your conceptualizations, presentations, and convictions. Be with cool hearts.

IronHead

Mr Gresham (07/09/01; 00:37:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 57740)
FOA/Another
Today seemed like a bad dream for me for awhile -- enduring some physical pain, and now the threatened loss of friends, or at least companions, along the way. Hey -- but at least I got the lawnmower working again today! Small victories...

I hope you've read the posts below. You brought out the best in so many. I could echo some, but they've really said it well for themselves. If these be average men, then my cynicism about humankind must take a few steps back. They are Giants in their own right, I believe.

You may be professionally bound to some standard other than what we are able to maintain here. If so, I hope you will re-introduce the Trail in some format you can control directly. Your anonymity can be maintained in other ways, gentlemen. But you know Michael is the man with an integrity that will in certainty guard your project in the way it needs to be.

You set out together to do an unselfish deed for many, and from the words of all here today, you have been succeeding. Why bring a good thing to a bad ending, over nothing? It does not fit the logic with which you have brought your THOUGHTS to us over these many years now. Please talk to each other about an alternative course of action...

Elwood (07/09/01; 00:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 57739)
West Point Gold Reclassified Again
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html
Looks like all the gold at the mint locations is now called either "Deep Storage" or "Working Stock." It's labelled "Treasury Owned Gold" at the bottom of the report.

From the notes at the bottom of May's report:

"Deep Storage Gold - formerly called Gold Bullion Reserve or Custodial Gold Bullion Reserve. This gold is owned by the U.S. Government and held for safekeeping by the U.S. Mint at the locations listed.

Working Stock - formerly listed as specific coins and blanks or called "PEF Gold." This is the portion of U.S. Government owned gold that is used as the operating inventory for minting gold coins. Working stock includes bars, blanks, and finished coins."

The May report (updated 2 July) is the first month of the new classification.

Trail Guide, Another, thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Regards,
Elwood

SHIFTY (07/09/01; 00:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57738)
NIKKEI 225 INDEX
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c4&t=1d
Japan was down -107.12 with one minute to go ( and that was quite a comeback in itself ) and then ended up closing down -66.40
?????

How do you say " The fix is in" in Japanese?

$hifty

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