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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/9/1999
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View Yesterday's Discussion.

Simply Me (12/9/99; 23:58:10MDT - Msg ID:20672)
To Peter Asher, re: the Narrator
I used to own (and may still have it..somewhere) a 78rpm record album of Basil Rathbone narrating the story of Peter and the Wolf. I don't recall the symphony that backed him.
It was beautiful. Basil Rathbone was fairly famous movie star in the....40's I think. This may be the album you are referring to. Maybe someone else has other pieces of the puzzle. The conductor of the orchestra may have been another famous name of the past...Stravinsky, maybe? Wish someone would put these old classical artists out on CD.



YGM (12/9/99; 23:21:12MDT - Msg ID:20671)
Stranger..
If you're around...
Glad to read you over there...you got heart and we'll all have battle scars before this wild ride is over.....take the overstuffed easy chair....the recliner...that was my favorite..................YGM :-)

YGM (12/9/99; 23:09:38MDT - Msg ID:20670)
Peter..
Truly Troubling Times...
Scared to be right and scared to be wrong....either way we lose in the short term at least.......

Just imagine...Linux comes public at $30. and goes to $240. the same day....and we thought Bre-ex was bizzare........

THX-1138 (12/9/99; 23:02:25MDT - Msg ID:20669)
YAHOO Stock
Anyone noticed that Yahoo stock went to $340. This market is going to blow. When a stock is worth more than one ounce of gold, it's time to sell and get physical. Who in their right mind would buy one piece of stock at $340? Shoot, that would pay my apartment rent for a month.

THX-1138 (12/9/99; 22:55:48MDT - Msg ID:20668)
Re: KiwiChick
I think you Another/FOA said that the reason for the decline in the $ price of Gold was because so many people were selling. Mainly, selling off their paper contracts not physical.

Peter Asher (12/9/99; 22:18:20MDT - Msg ID:20667)
YGM (12/9/99; 21:43:07MDT - Msg ID:20665)

Yes Ken, that too.

The point I was alluding to was: It may be that the portfolios of the E-trade world won't disappear into cyberspace, but what if they do? The E-trade investment public won't ALL liquidate this month like that fellow, but what if they do?

I talk to many people these days who admit the worst could happen but don't consider they should cash out. I think the viewpoint is that it is better to be wiped out in the company of the rest of the herd, then to be caught out as being the fool that protected himself for nothing.

Re- "Peter and The Wolf" - Long ago (In the time of 78 rpm wax records) It was narrated by a famous radio personality with the instrumentation for each story character first individually set out, and then blended into the original symphony as the story progressed. The whole effect was to entertain children and in doing so focus them on both some good survival morals, and some basic training in musical composition. I wonder if this album is in print. Does any one know of it?

Peter Asher (12/9/99; 21:50:54MDT - Msg ID:20666)
This just came in my E-mail

David Kupelian had a column on Y2K titled "A Wild Ride
Coming" (WorldNetDaily.com 08/11/1999)
. Following is taken from near the end of the column:

============================================

Because when all is said and done, there is one future
scenario that is conspicuously scarier than all the rest. The
worst possible scenario we could experience is the one in
which ... nothing happens.

Nothing. The stock market just goes up forever and
everyone's 401Ks continue to get fatter, continually
anesthetizing them -- like a morphine IV drip -- against
caring about the brazen theft of their country, culture and
freedom. (Remember: "It's the economy, stupid"?)
Hollywood just continues to corrupt the nation's youth with
films like "American Pie." Children continue to have sex
and shoot each other at an ever-earlier age. We continue to
allow government to chip away, no, make that hack away at
our fundamental rights as a free people. Yes, the most
dangerous future scenario is that we just continue on the
way we are going, with the slow, steady, disintegration of
our nation into a fragmented, hedonistic, selfish, valueless,
nothing society. And roaring in to fill this moral vacuum,
with the same force as the mile-wide monster tornado that
devastated Oklahoma recently, tyranny will overtake this
once-free country. And that will be the wildest ride of all.
"If men are not ruled by God," wrote William Penn, "they
will be ruled by tyrants." We are about to discover that
truth -- big time. It may be that before too long Americans
will walk through the concentration camps of their own
making, and see what has become of their beloved country,
their families, and their own lives.


YGM (12/9/99; 21:43:07MDT - Msg ID:20665)
Peter...
You had me there for a minute...
But my little miss just happened to have the book...Ah-Ha..
Peter, with the help of his little friends caught the Wolf......
:-))

****Good thing for us we have our forum friends...maybe we'll catch a wolf also, maybe even the whole pack...
Regards...Ken

beesting (12/9/99; 21:22:33MDT - Msg ID:20664)
KiwiChick---KIORA----Reason for POG falling!
The current world Gold markets are dominated by players that are seeking paper profits.Percentage wise very few take delivery of Gold. The Gold trading is done with paper(contracts)that represent ownership of Gold. Most on these Gold forums believe there are more paper contracts in circulation than there is real Gold to back them.(See Sir Aristotle's fine piece on fractional lending,at the top of this page(forum archives)
To make a long story short,every time the price of Gold starts to rise by natural supply and demand,most believe paper Gold contracts are dumped on the markets to force the price down,by big players.The Goldhearts thru a group called GATA,is desperately trying to get the U.S. Government to investigate illegal activity.
Many feel with the current low price of Gold it is the time to accumulate for the long term.
If you have time,KiwiChick, read the archives section of this site to get a free education about Gold and Gold ownership.
Hope I have been of some assistance,by the way,I have relatives in Hastings and Napier......beesting.

Peter Asher (12/9/99; 21:12:10MDT - Msg ID:20663)
YGM (12/9/99; 20:57:16MDT - Msg ID:20662)

From "Peter and The Wolf" >>> "But what if a wolf DOES come out of the forest? What then?" said Grandfather.

YGM (12/9/99; 20:57:16MDT - Msg ID:20662)
Online Investing...
I'd Be Worried Too....."Too Many -'Weakest'- Links"
Y2K - Some Online Investors
Selling Entire Portfolios
http://news.excite.com/news/r/991208/12/y2k-internet-brokers

12-9-99





 
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Given the intermittent problems he has had trading stocks through his online broker's system, Bob Schreier does not want to take any chances when the calendar turns to Jan. 1, 2000 -- so he is selling all his stocks.
 
Despite assurances from Charles Schwab & Co. that it is ready for any computer troubles that might arise when the new year comes around, the 50-year-old accountant from Orland Park, Illinois, doubts it can deal with the very remote possibility that its system will crash at the stroke of midnight.
 
"I don't trust Schwab's system," he said, explaining that it has sometimes been slow to execute his buy and sell orders and, on occasion, lost them altogether when it crashed.
 
Schwab and other online brokers such as TD Waterhouse Group Inc. have gone to great lengths to dissuade customers from cashing out as Schreier did in the face of the Year 2000 or Y2K problem, in which computers could confuse 2000 for 1900, leading to errors or crashes.
 
Embarrassed by a series of system crashes in the past year, they say they have spent millions of dollars running tests, upgrading software and replacing computers to make sure that everything runs smoothly when the date changes.
 
And they have assured millions of investors who trade stocks through their respective Web sites that Y2K will be a nonevent: a boring alternative to the apocalyptic scenarios envisioned by survivalists who have stocked up on guns and canned tuna in their bunkers up in the hills.
 
NO DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER DAY
 
"I'm confident that customers will not see anything different from what they would see on any other day," said Bill Sherman, the Year 2000 project coordinator at TD Waterhouse, the world's No. 2 discount broker.
 
Sherman dismissed the possibility of accounts disappearing into cyberspace on New Year's Day, among other fears. "We maintain a record of client holdings on a daily basis," he said, referring to the broker's nearly 3 million accounts and $121 billion in assets.
 
Online brokers have hired more people to answer phones and keep branch offices open over the New Year's weekend in anticipation of a flood of questions from investors about the status of their accounts. The brokers do not expect to handle any trades since markets will be closed.
 
Schwab and its competitors are the fastest-growing members of the financial services industry in terms of customer accounts. Riding a bull market and a surge in interest in stocks, they have come to rival traditional houses like Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. Charging as little as $5 a trade -- a fraction of a full-service broker's commission -- they process about 37 percent of all retail stock trades, or slightly less than 500,000 trades per day.
 
But the online brokers and other securities firms set aside their rivalries in preparing for Y2K, spending a combined total of $5 billion in the last four years, often coordinating their efforts through a committee set up by the industry's trade group, the Securities Industry Association.
 
Should anything happen despite their efforts, it will probably be an outside factor such as a power failure rather than an internal one, Arthur Thomas, chairman of the SIA's Year 2000 steering committee, said.
 
Greg Smith, an analyst at West Coast investment bank Hambrecht & Quist LLC, said he was worried about the prospect of a problem from outside. "It can get a little scary," he said. "You're only as strong as your weakest link."
 
But the North American Electric Reliability Council, which oversees the continent's power grid, recently said all but a handful of utilities were ready for Y2K and none of the remaining problems were severe enough to cause outages.
 
The SIA committee will run a communications center before and after the date change to keep brokers, stock exchanges and other industry members in touch with each other, Thomas said. He said the committee was determined to prevent rumors from spreading confusion or sparking panic. "Technical problems that are not Y2K-related could become Y2K problems with rumors."
 
READY FOR ANYTHING
 
Schwab, the No. 1 U.S. Web broker with 6.4 million active customer accounts and more than $620 billion in assets, is ready for just about anything that Y2K might throw at it, given the disasters it has survived, spokesman Greg Gable said.
 
"We've been through earthquakes in San Francisco, fires in the (San Francisco) Bay Area, storms in Florida and snowstorms in Denver," he said.
 
But some customers still have doubts, given the problems Schwab has had, including a series of outages in October that kept investors from placing trades through the broker's Web site. "They can't even handle the present century let alone the next one," said Schwab customer and advertising freelancer Craig Ferguson of Orlando, Florida.
 
Gable said the crashes were not related to the broker's Y2K preparations, which were expected to cost about $90 million."Those had to do with difficulties we encountered installing new software and additional capacity and they are now fixed."
 
Michal Daniel, a Minneapolis freelance photographer, said he took his online broker, industry pioneer <http://quicken.excite.com/investments/quotes/?symbol=EGRPE+Trade Group Inc., at its word on being Y2K-compliant. "I'm not going to worry about it," he said, vowing to stay away from his computer for the entire weekend.
 
Daniel, 42, said he planned to bring in the new year with friends and family at a chalet in the woods that he bought with money earned from trading in Y2K companies, whose business is to make computers compliant.
 
"It's at the end of a one-mile-long dead-end road," he said of his solar-powered refuge. "The only connection to the (power and communications) grid is the phone."

ORO (12/9/99; 20:35:41MDT - Msg ID:20661)
Robert Gordon Corrections
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/329.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/331.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/337.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/334.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/338.pdf

See above URLs to understand some of what Riechenbacher was talking about.

I am working on the connection of Gordon's and Riechenbacher's work to my own "productivity theft" concept. The result so far indicates that the US has had a significant DROP in productivity since the 70s.

I am running the latest data from the OCC through my spreadsheets.

Original data is available through the OCC site:
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq399.xls



ORO (12/9/99; 20:31:29MDT - Msg ID:20660)
Robert Gordon
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/329.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/331.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/327.pdf
http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/324.pdf

See above URLs to understand some of what Riechenbacher was talking about.

I am working on the connection of Gordon's and Riechenbacher's work to my own "productivity theft" concept. The result so far indicates that the US has had a significant DROP in productivity since the 70s.

I am running the latest data from the OCC through my spreadsheets.

Original data is available through the OCC site:
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq399.xls



ORO (12/9/99; 20:24:39MDT - Msg ID:20659)
USAGOLD - militariztion of EU
I understand the "logic" of taking idle hands and putting them to work in the pursuit of military self sufficiency and fiscal stimulus. However, military spending is the most horrendously unproductive use of capital and human and other resources. Once a force is available, the temptation to make use of it becomes too great when faced with situations such as a squeeze on resources (which I expect to happen sooner rather than later - to gather steam within a couple of years). This was the background to two world wars. Needless to say, it will be the seed from which comes the next. In WWII, the use of gas was not initiated by any of the sides - despite both having it. The nuclear capabilities would probably not be used by anyone in the next war for the same reasons. It may be used by the ones losing the contest as Samson type retalliation.
In any case, there is good reason for the EU to come up with a program for their own defense. They obviously do not relish the thought of supporting the US war machine any further considering what this entails in the realm of political dependence and economic subservience - that can no longer be maintained anyway (Arab oil production should peak this year or next if I memory serves me right, and they will soon need to use their gold rather than accumulate more). The reduced need for both external military support (USSR going under) and of a reserve currency system, leads to their exit from the US fold. The Wall Street lunacy of the past few years msut be sealing the fate of the dollar.

Considering our current glut of natural resources making the concept of a resource war seem absurd, some explanation should be given. The shortest version of my explanation is this, with a cash based trade system lacking a major currency enjoying a seignorage, the vast majority of the world's population would enjoy bidding for goods on equal terms with us, Europe and Japan. Despite heavy investment in technology through its subsidy (by the ESOP tax credit system and compensation substitution,) the US will not have the capacity to replace lost import sources internally. Perhaps because of the government support of technology investment we have at once prevented our businesses from investing in more worthwhile endeavors and gave the world "for free" the product of R&D that was subsidized to the hilt - in some cases up to 75% of revenue in indirect subsidy. The West will be compeeting with all productive people on earth rather than having the developing nations compete for Western currency, as has been the case since volcker sucked the "excess" dollars out of the system in 1980 and ushered in the dollar chase era in which we live.

KiwiChick (12/9/99; 20:23:25MDT - Msg ID:20658)
Reason POG falling?
I don't know much about POG but it seems to me that the POG is that of paper gold. As a lot of owners of paper must be bailing out at the moment then of course the price is going to fall - and for who knows how long or how much. Is this right?

Bonedaddy (12/9/99; 19:32:05MDT - Msg ID:20657)
gold & oil
Thanks to all for the posts on oil price predictions for the near term. I find this enormously interesting for the following reason. The true gold supply/demand has been effectively maksed for many years by the clever sales of paper gold and derivatives. Investors assume a surplus, in th eface of an actual shortfall. How will a shortage of oil be disguised?

USAGOLD (12/9/99; 19:00:34MDT - Msg ID:20656)
Some Mail....
I thought I might start publishing from time to time some of the incredible mail we get. Those of you who are lurkers and would like to send Christmas/Holiday greetings to this great group of selfless, dedicated and learned posters, please e-mail me and I'll try to get on the board as soon as possible. I happen to think this place is something special. What do you say, we let these folk know how we feel about them at this special time of year!
_____________________

"Regarding your forum on gold, it is indeed excellent, the best I think of any, with some of the sharpest minds in earnest seriousness discussing their views of the world. I am not in their league but I can say this-when this internet bubble pops the last recession is going to look like one of our best economic periods. Those who hung on by their
fingernails in the 80's for awhile before losing everything won't even try this next time around." Lakewood01

******************

thanks for the great value.
I received that order from East Coast yesterday about the time I was Emailing your office. Thje order appears exactly as offered, a great buy. low premium great quality...uncirculated..(but you knew that) just as you said it would be....and thanks for handling such a small order. To me it's not so small.
I'm thinking over another order just as the newletter says by the 10th....and thanks for the newsletters too.
Your (MK's) book, and newsletter has been my only rational source of education.

I am suspect of most other sources of "sky falling" mentalities.
Again .....THANK YOU JNM

*******************

".... it's 2:45 am and I'm still pouring over all these posts! I've been trading Gold, Silver and Platinum this past year and have done really, really well....in my opinion, but as the millenium approaches, I find it harder and hard to get a feel for the markets. Just like today, gold and silver getting smitten. It's like we are entering into uncharted territory. But, I've been sitting here on the floor with my laptop until I'm numb, soaking in all this info from people that know more than I do. I feel like I have a family!

Could I go so far as to say that I am in love? I'm not sure what the most intriguing part of it is......the really newsy news about what's happening in London and Japan or the little tid bits of conspiracies with just enough info
to make you stop and and really wonder at what kind of world we are living in....or, the ideas of gold being 10,000 and ounce and how much money I could make.....

Anyway, I can assure you that I will be signing up as a member...

So, thanks for such a great site. I look forward to reading it daily, as I do several other gold sites in hopes to gain more knowledge and understanding on how this alien world of finance works."


*****************

"Merry Christmas to all the team and posters at USAGOLD from davao city in the Philippines, keep up the good work, rgds, steve carty ( 'under'employed exploration geologist!" Normandy



YGM (12/9/99; 17:56:29MDT - Msg ID:20655)
Internet Virus/Newsgroups at Risk! (link is for anti-virus free download..)
http://www.symantec.com
Daily News
Unique Y2K Virus Discovered
By Sherman Fridman, Newsbytes.
December 08, 1999



It's unclear whether the biblical nomenclature was intended to invoke images of Armageddon, but a new and unique type of virus, called "W95.Babylonia" has just been detected according to the Symantec Antivirus Research Center (SARC).

In an interview with Newsbytes, Vincent Weafer, director of SARC, said that that this virus is very complex, that infected computers   would be very difficult to fix, and that it is unique in its method of operation.

According to Weafer, the virus, which was first reported to Symantec Monday, was planted in various Internet newsgroups and spread from there. Due to this fact, most of the reports of virus infection have come from home users, rather than business users.

Geographically, the virus has been reported in Europe, the US, and in the Asia/Pacific areas.

The virus is unique because it has the ability to download its viral components from the Internet. When the virus arrives on a PC user's system it will wait until the user makes an Internet connection. When the virus detects that the computer has accessed the Internet, it causes access to be made with a Web server located in Japan. Because the virus has such capability, Weafer said that it is possible for the virus writer to update the virus - and its effects on infected PCs - daily, hourly, or every second.

And, because the virus is updateable, the results of being infected with the virus can also change.

Weafer confirmed that W95.Babylonia is not spread primarily by opening infected e-mail. Rather, the virus is very complex, propagating to other computer users mainly via MIRC, a text-based communications application used to chat over the Internet. When an infected user logs onto MIRC, it will automatically send the virus to everyone within the same MIRC chat room as the infected user.

The virus will be sent as a Y2K bug fix, and once this purported bug fix is executed, it will infect 32-bit EXE program files and also Windows Help files.

According to SARC, the virus will try to modify an infected system to display the following message when the computer is booted:

W95/Babylonia by Vecna (c) 1999 Greetz to RoadKil and VirusBuster Big thankz to sok4ever webmaster Abracos pra galera brazuca!!! --- Eu boto fogo na Babilonia!

Weafer said that the virus, which has gotten a "Medium/High Risk" rating from SARC, can be blocked with a download available from Symantec at http://www.symantec.com .

Reported by Newsbytes.com

Phos (12/9/99; 17:09:49MDT - Msg ID:20654)
Goldfly (12/09/99; 16:11:56MDT - Msg ID:20649)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/energy.overview/aer98/txt/aer0504.txt
Re US imports of crude. It's not quite true that the mid-east imports are small. They are not the largest but still substantial. See the link. The US imported 10,382,000 bbl/day in 1998 (up about 500,000 bbl this year I think). Of that 5.6 mm bbl was non-opec, 4.8 mm bbl opec. Of the OPEC figure, 3.6 mm bbl was middle east. The US now imports 1.6 mm bbl/day from Canada (this has been growing) and 1.4 from Mexico. So the Middle East is roughly 1/3 of imports. Pretty significant.

AEL (12/9/99; 16:56:23MDT - Msg ID:20653)
look of currency
CV: did I miss something? what does the appearance of currency have to do with rø

YGM (12/9/99; 16:42:32MDT - Msg ID:20652)
Sorry for this long post, but it needs reading even if link previously posted...
The Harry Schultz Newsletter....From Gold Eagle Editorials...
Editor's Note: HSL is written by the world's highest-paid investment consultant, Chevalier Harry Schultz (Guinness Book of Records- International Editions: 1981-1997). The HSL was the leading gold advocate in the early 1970s, when it called the Great Gold Bull market. Interestingly, HSL is again bullish on gold.

The International Harry Schultz Letter
<Picture>
"The premier international financial, socio, geopolitical & philosophical newsletter"

Gold & Black Gold Per Harry Schultz


Gold "should" move up in late Dec, due to a likely pre-Y2K stk mkt fear selloff & a likely US$ price peaking out. Stks-down, $-down normally equal: gold-up. But gold's supply/demand forces have been both openly & covertly blocked by the establishment so far this year. They simply can't afford to allow a free-mkt gold price. The stakes are too high for them. And "them" hold the levers of power--political, financial, media. They manipulate not only the gold price but the media to squash any Y2K fears, thus inhibiting a rush to quality. But gold's chart shows a bullish downwedge pattern & its correction has almost reached the vital 61.8% retracement number of 280, basis London PM fix. Price should hold there. If not, odds shift to test the summer low around 253.

The bullion-bank cannibals, who have been shorting gold (with the help of NY Fed Reserve Bank, & an OK from Greenspan), to cap the price & prevent a free mkt in gold, are unlikely to want to hold short positions during the year-end & year-start. BUT while speculators, hedge funds & private bullion banks may not want to be gold-short over year-end, the US govt may not mind. It has deep pockets (yours!) & doesn't mind the risk. It can spend all of your money it desires, to prevent a free gold mkt. Spitting into the wind doesn't bother govts.

But this is now becoming transparent & abhorrent to a growing number, so this illegal maneuvering by man&beast will be coming to an end soon. Either via a Y2K-meltdown of many banks &/or via a legal attack by GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Assn), who aim to bring into court the anti-trust violators, the mkt/price-fixers. A war chest is being filled to fund this. A major gold mine (whose name I haven't permission to quote) threw its $upport behind GATA last month. Others will follow. U too? Everyone should. Thanks Hugo for your $upport.

After decades of eating their young, gold producers have discovered something new: betting on gold, not against it. And gold shareholders have found their brains, & are demanding gold miners stop selling forward. When people buy a gold share they want a pure gold play, not a derivative crap shoot! People are selling Barrick (a derivative cutesy) & buying Agnico (a pure gold nugget). The charts prove which way the tide is turning: Barrick down, Agnico up. (Paul Penna is smiling down J)

Another good gold miner is Gold Fields of SoAfr. They disavow hedging, bought 12.5% of BofE 1st auction gold & big chunk of 2nd. Chairman Chris Thompson says "Hedges have largely contributed to low gold prices. It's folly for us all to continue to do so." 3 cheers! GF also listed on Nasdaq; Symbol: GOLD (catchy name, eh?). Chart says buy. ••Harmony of SoAfr is unhedged, disapproves of hedging. Newmont says never again will it do any hedging. ••Robt Chapman, Intl Forecaster, says (on gold-eagle.com): "From now, producers must reveal their hedges, or be sued. Unless demanded as a loan condition, producers should have under 12% hedged. Otherwise, they're gambling. Managers who hedge beyond that should be replaced & legal action brought against them." Amen. HSL instigated this attack on gold hedging 3 yrs ago, as a lone voice. Now it's almost mainstream, finally paying off. J

••Felix Freeman, ScotiaMcLeod analyst, reports "The nature of gold buying is changing. Wealthier investors are buying large lots, often US$1-10mil, not for Y2K reasons but to exit equity mkts for capital preservation. Such buying hasn't been seen in size for 10 yrs." Big money smells a stk mkt meltdown. ••Café le Metropole reports drug dealers & money launderers are increasingly switching from $'s to gold as "gold gives them certainty." There's so much more to tell & not enough space. Always access gold news twice-wkly from gold-eagle.com & Tocqueville.com ••New bull mkts need a Wall of Worry to grow on. Gold has a big one. ••Vronsky of gold-eagle.com says "In early 1970's only 1 in 1000 were invested in gold. When gold hit $800, it was 50 per 1000. Now it's back to 1 in 1000. We predict the new gold bull mkt will increase that, thanks to the Net, to 100 per 1000." I agree. ••Buy the gold dips; they'll become gold chips!

Black Gold (crude oil)

<Picture>The hard-core inflation fact is that commodities are rising, money supply is rocketing at historic rates, interest rates continue to rise month after month, incomes rise, & govt inflation indexes are being exposed as fraudulent. Money supply is quietly slipping into speculative stocks, artificially inflating mkt prices.

Oil is the giveaway clue. It has doubled in just a few months. I predict it will double very soon again, probably by Dec 31, to aprox US$50. And then rise another 50-100% to US$75-100 in early 2000. Only a govt price freeze & rationing can restrain/modify such a rise. Black mkts will flourish.

Oil brings us to the Y2K link in all this. The evidence is overwhelming for those willing to dig & then to believe what they find. Oil production & refining, due to Y2K unfixed & unfixable embedded chip systems, in every nation, will almost certainly suffer acutely. I forecast a drop in production of approximately 20%, & 25-30% is not unlikely. Many oil men admit privately they're scared & most confess Y2K compliance is impossible so they're on a FOF program (Fix-On-Failure). If U read, as I have, the big oil companies reports to the US SEC (which must be honest as they are legally binding) they admit they can't assure production. Chevron tells SEC: "It's impractical to eliminate all potential Y2K problems before they arise." Shell says "no precedent exists as to the manner in which to fully detect & eliminate Y2K risks."

Exxon says critical operations or delivery failures may occur in the first few wks of 2000. And "Disruptions can't be reasonably estimated." Mobil tells SEC (but not the public): "There are an almost infinite number of additional risks which are simply not assessable & for which therefore contingency plans can't be developed. " And "A combination of failures could have a material adverse effect on Mobil's results of operations, liquidity &/or financial condition." Texaco says much the same as the others. Their PR depts however sing a different song. They say none of the above. Mike Adams, editor of Y2K Newswire, says the oil press releases will not use the phrase "Y2K-compliant". All will use qualifiers such as "Things should work" or "We believe things will work." None will guarantee the worst-case scenarios in their SEC filings won't happen.

A key point here is that govts (eg, the US) are saying everything is under control, whereas the oil companies have said (to the SEC) the worst-case scenarios are largely outside their control. •Oil must be pumped, delivered (eg, by tankers & pipelines) & refined. All 3 processes are extremely Y2K- vulnerable. Every oil producing nation claims compliance; all are lying. What country, asks analyst Mike Adams, will stand up & say "We're not compliant" & instantly lose its export mkt? If U recall it was an oil supply drop of only 6% in 1973 that resulted in the sharp 1973-74 recession & mkt crash of those years. An oil supply cut of 20% guarantees a depression, not a recession. Most oil comes from 3rd world nations which all agree are not Y2K-ready. But neither are US oil producers. If U are a raging optimist, cut my projection in half, to 10%. That's still far worse than 1973-74 recession's cause. And this time stock mkts are in la-la land, making them capable of folding the global house of financial cards.

There are enough insiders who are not blind who have been buying oil futures/options to keep the spot price moving as far as the eye can see. I've recommended it as my #1 pick in HSL for months (oil, not oil shares). Amex Oil Index is at all-time high. Oil distillate stocks (supply), including heating oil, recently fell sharply. WSJ reports petrol stockpiling. Oil-dependent airlines are hedging in oil--that pushes price up. Are airlines a logical shortsale? One study shows 75% of embedded devices in large oil wells & pipelines are inaccessible for compliance testing. Petrol rationing is possible, as pump prices rise. Will oil alone cause inflation? And how can U have depression & inflation at the same time? Inflation is already well underway, underneath govt's faultily structured indexes. And govt wants them that way, for fiscal & political reasons. Inflation is really currency devaluation, is ongoing, has destroyed savings for 2 generations, & is part of govt policy, since 1913. I'll reveal more when space allows. But oil shortages will cause shortages of thousands of products that are made from oil &/or need oil to move goods from A to B. So scarcity will crop up all over the place, but spotty. Many prices will fall, where scarcity isn't a factor (eg, property, jewelry, luxury goods), while others rise—like many foodstuffs.




Harry Schultz
http://www.HSLetter.com
hsl.mentor@skynet.be
Tel +32 (for Belgium) 16 533 684 -- Fax +32 16 535 777
Postal address: HSL, PO Box 622, CH-1001 Lausanne, Switzerland

8 December 1999

Gandalf the White (12/9/99; 16:34:38MDT - Msg ID:20651)
Goldfly !
NOT !!!!!
Be carefull of what one reads.
Should one judge by parts or the whole ?
<;-)

Cavan Man (12/9/99; 16:21:16MDT - Msg ID:20650)
CM 20646
Having said that; the timing couldn't be better for PM ownership and serious consideration of honest money.

Goldfly (12/09/99; 16:11:56MDT - Msg ID:20649)
FOA or (or anyone) - YGM's post.......
"6. The Middle Eastern producing countries export very little crude to the U.S"

Is this true?



rsjacksr (12/09/99; 16:11:30MDT - Msg ID:20648)
Rising oil prices drawing scrutiny
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncsthu07.htm
The President is unhappy ..... A little fist waving.
[snip] WASHINGTON (AP) - The Clinton administration warned Thursday that "dangerously high" oil prices could affect economic growth and said it was prepared to intervene if costs continue to soar.
Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said little about what actions might be taken, and some analysts said the administration's options are limited largely to jawboning friendly producing nations.
Richardson told reporters he wanted to send a message to the oil markets that the administration will take "whatever steps are necessary" to ensure continued economic growth and to protect U.S. consumers.


YGM (12/09/99; 15:49:32MDT - Msg ID:20647)
VERY Worthy Repost......
From Gold-Eagle forum........




  Y2K, Oil & Bill Richardson 
(GOLDFINGER)Dec 09, 17:16 Forum,

Bill Richardson should be concerned about rising crude prices, but in reality there will be very little the U.S. can do to influence oil prices. The past 30 years have demonstrated this time and time again.

Here are some points to consider: Bear in mind I have been working as a Senior Petroleum Engineering Consultant in South America for the past 3 year (mostly in Venezuela and Colombia.....currently with one of the largest multi-nationals in the world), and previous to that I worked in the Persian Gulf.

1. First of all, I am very much inclined to agree with Harry Schultz's article from yesterday regarding his prediction that crude oil could doubled in price very soon (he is predicting possibly $50/bbl by Dec. 31st and $75 to $100 early in 2000). I think the following scenario will un-fold:.

a. Y2K creates oil shock.

b. stock market collapses due to oil shock....similiar to 1973/74 scenario.

c. precious metal prices go ballastic in reaction to collapsing stock markets.

2. Venezuela is by far the single largest supplier of crude oil imports to the U.S. Having worked there recently I observed the following;

a. majority of the wells require artificial lift. There are literally 10s of thousands of wells producing via gas lift and electric submersible pumps. Power outages are frequent at the best of times in Venezuela.

b. the words "equipment maintainence" are virtually non-existent in Venezuela.

c. Venezuela was 100% non Y2K compliant in March of this year, now they claim to be 100% Y2K compliant. I don't believe them for one moment! To my knowledge, they have done nothing in regards to Y2K testing.

d. Venezuela is severely cash-strapped. The government can barely pay it's workers.....so how can they check for Y2K compliance.

e. Because of artificial lift requirements (i.e. electrical power requirements) and lower well production rates I think the logistical infastructure is much more complicated, thus more vunerable, to Y2K than in many other producing nations around the globe.

3. The basket price for Venezuelan Crude (heavy oil) is considerally cheaper than West Texas Intermediate, Brent or Saudi light crudes. The U.S. has a cheap sources of crude, which they up-grade in U.S. domestic refineries for commercial purposes. I believe the real motive of Richardson to "drive down" energy prices is to conceal that inflation is here, and Y2K problems and a cold winter will exasperate the problem.

4. The Oil Company I am currently working with are anticipating problems (in their oversea operation in particular). To the best of my knowledge, they have conducted little if any Y2K testing. I am under the impression they shall fix the problems as they come up. So let me ask you all this: If a major multi-national company has spent minimal money on Y2K testing, what would you think cash strapped National Oil Companies have spent..........nothing!

5. On November 30th, 1999, the International Energy Agency (as reported by Reuters) has drawn up plans for global rationing of oil production.

6. The Middle Eastern producing countries export very little crude to the U.S. They could care less what the U.S. thinks, unless of course a problem were to spring up that would shut-off their taps (which would take another war). Some how I doubt that shall happen in the next 3 months.

Sorry Mr. Richardson, but unlike your buddies being able to manipulate the POG down they will not be able to do the same with the price of crude. Middle Eastern countries are wise enough not to trust the West. Historically, OPEC has only intervened in collapsing oil prices, not rising prices. Unlike the past when Middle Eastern producers were awash in petro-dollars, they now have debts to pay........Gulf War for example.

It is my understanding OPEC will not meet again until March 2000. I believe OPEC has stalled and will continue to stall their meetings due to Y2K concerns. OPEC is very much a re-active as opposed to pro-active organization. A collapsing stock market, thus a collapsing dollar would be in their interest so as to monitize U.S. dollar debts (similiar to what the U.S. did to Japan in the early '80s). As the dollar collapses relative to the Euro, producers can agree to be paid in Euros.

Saudi's Maaden purchasing the other half of Boliden Gold Mining Company (just before Y2K) is a tip-off (in my opinion) this game is coming to a conclusion.

Cavan Man (12/09/99; 15:25:31MDT - Msg ID:20646)
AEL 20465
Your colleague forgot to make mention of the new paper FRN and the new, cladded coins. I am of the opinion that, all things considered as discussed here, timing could not be worse to change the look of the currency.

AEL (12/09/99; 14:29:43MDT - Msg ID:20645)
May 2000
"... perhaps not dramatically until May 2000."

hehe! Can't wait. Gonna sell out now.

;)


AEL (12/09/99; 14:22:05MDT - Msg ID:20644)
Barclay Leib (Martin Armstrong)


I have had a little correspondence with one Barclay Leib -- a former
associate/employee of Martin Armstrong. Here is what he just wrote to
me, FYI:

From: ...@aol.com
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 1999 12:40:42 EST
Subject: Re: Query

Having worked there, this I can tell you about Armstrong over the 1998-99
period: he barely traded gold or silver at all. He did trade the stock
indices a lot in Aug-Sep 1998 (doing very well), and then pissed away a bit
of dough taking a shot at the short side of stock indeces two or three times
since -- but nothing big. With hindsight, increasingly over 1998-99 I think
he was becoming distracted by his exposure to usd-yen and the currency
overlay program for his japanese accounts that in the end did get him in
mucho trouble (although I did not know there was any problem here at the
time).

Bottom line on metals: HE WAS COMPLETELY UNINVOLVED IN GOLD for the last two
years, so put your conspiracy theories away. What he did know about was the
1997 attempt by Buffett, Republic, Deutsche Bank and others to try to
manipulate silver upwards. In his civil suit vs. republic, i understand that
he requested to have the phone lines of Republic suboenoad, which could be of
some embarrassment to Republic. Armstrong himself was invited to join the
silver manipulation by Republic, but declined, telling them that what they
were doing was instead going to slowly destroy any interest in that market
when the manipulation fell apart.

Personally, I like the gold market. I think that it is slowlt turning the
corner -- forming a platform from which it is likely to eventually advcance,
but perhaps not dramatically until May 2000. I think the catalyst for such
an advance will be something driven by a natural disaster -- like a major
earthquake in California that quite literally wipe out the Internet stocks
and send what wealth that is left scurrying into other things. The gold
market is really so small in size vis a vis the equity market, just a 5%
shift in asset allocation in its favor would be dramatic.

Also -- anecdotally, anytime a country starts changing the look and feel of
its currency, it has been a harbinger for more inflation (not deflation) on
the way. This happened when France went from 10 F note to 10 F coin, ditto
Britain and the 1 pound note to the 1 pound coin, ditto Canada and their move
to the poorly respected Loonie and Two-nee coins. This "gold colored" $1
coin that the Treasury is due to introduce in the 1st. quarter of 2000 should
make you a happy man with time.

Best for now,

Barclay Leib



Cavan Man (12/09/99; 13:44:19MDT - Msg ID:20643)
USAGOLD
Mike-Wish you'd post as well as host more often. You are one of the smartest and wisest men I know.

Nightrider (12/09/99; 13:42:37MDT - Msg ID:20642)
Y2K gold Rush
The year 2000 is just weeks away "Were is the Gold Rush"?

USAGOLD (12/09/99; 13:23:11MDT - Msg ID:20641)
FOA, ORO, Cavan Man
On a slow morning here at the office (everybody's must be getting with the Christmas gift program), I thought I might get in the middle of this discussion about Euro-militarization, as I share your common apprehensions.

Let me start by way of some local economic history (hopefully I won't bore you, but there's a point amidst all this) and then try to apply it to what's going in Europe. Here in Denver, we are experiencing probably the greatest economic boom in our history. Back in the 1980s when big oil pulled out of Colorado, the economy was left in shambles. Unemployment and bankrupticies skyrocketed and when you drove down 17th Street -- the Wall Street of the West -- you encountered one empty bankfront after another. It looked like a modern version of the ghost town.

When Federico Pena became mayor (because the incumbent failed to handle a snowstorm properly -- believe it or not), he exhorted all to imagine a Great City amidst the financial ruin and pretty much was laughed off by the populace. But a Keynsian style stimulation was put into motion that not only energized the city but led to the boom now in progress. Now, those of you who know me, understand that I am no promoter of Keynsian economics, but at the same time there can be no denying the material benefits. Public works projects were the driving force -- Denver International Airport, Coors Field, a massive downtown Convention Center, an Aquarium, additions to the museums, an new building and expansion of texts for the Denver Public Library (also downtown) and now we just opened the beautiful, ultra-mnodern Pepsi Center for basketball and hockey and the new Bronco's stadium (a group headed by John Elway is now in talks with the city about buying the teams and leasing the Center). Pena went off to work for the Clintons and we now have zero unemployment in Colorado. It has become one of America's technological meccas. The new governor -- a conservative Republican -- is meeting this week with Bill Gates about a public/private Colorado Institute of Technology. This same Republican governor pushed hard for a light rail system and highway improvements that also passed referendum. So it isn't just Democrats interested in this type of economic stimulation. All of this was approved by voter referendum and financed by bond issuance. I don't offer this to launch a discussion about putting future generations in debt (and all that), because much of this debt will be paid from revenue generated by the projects, but I do bring it up for a reason that relates to the situation in Europe and ties into the Washington Agreement and gold.

As I have discussed with FOA and Another in the past, the problem with the new European currency is getting it into circulation. You can't just issue it and hope for the best; it must be issued within some type of framework that enhances it acceptability and usability. Robert Mundell hinted at this concern when he lauded Hong Kong the other day for purchasing euros for their reserves. This situation is interesting from a number of perspectives not the least of which being that the Hong Kong dollar is regulated by a currency board and that currency is tied to the dollar. Now Hong Kong has added the euro to that tie and it will be interesting to see how all this works out. I am certain that New Europe would like to see others follow suit.

Here's where the Washington Agreement comes into play. By limiting EU activity in the gold market and acting to push gold higher (or at least not to damage it), the EU puts itself in a position of enhancing its own reserves (with a rising or stable gold valuation marked to market) which will also give Europe the ability to issue bonds and get their currency into circulation. In the Mundell model, gold serves a reserve asset that helps defend the currency. You cannot defend the euro with the euro, and if the dollar fades, what do you use? Gold. The yellow stuff. And in so doing you enhance the currency in which you have issued the bonds. This is great for marketing.

The militarization announcement frowned upon by Margaret Thatcher in Churchillian terms is a major, major, major pronouncement for many reasons (Three "majors" makes it "major" in anyone's book.) but there are two I would like to briefly touch upon:

First, the big problem in Europe as we have discussed here before is unemployment. What better way to stimulate the economy than to go into a massive bond issuance to rearm Europe. A rising gold price in dollar terms, and by proxy rising value of ECB reserves, would provide good cover for that bond issuance. Since about one third of Euro reserves are gold already, a stair step approach of taking the metal higher over a number of years while simultaneously increasing the bond issue would work wonders for the European economy, just as it has the Denver Economy.

Second, in the case of Denver, the public works projects become assets which generate revenue to repay the debt. In Europe's case, the payoff would be less direct (more subtle) but revolutionary in terms of global politics and finance. The building of a new military machine would add a great deal of confidence to the currency as the government will be able in the future to defend the interests of Europe wherever the currency is being used. The economic advantage of a strong and responsive U.S. military has not been lost on Europe, and the foriegn policy advantages of both a strong currency and military could make Europe a viable competitor to the United States and the dollar in a relatively short period of time -- all financed by an international debt issuance that puts the currency into circulation as a reserve.

There are so many nooks and crannies to this discussion, that I won't even attempt to take this any further at this time, but simply allow this to roll around out there for awhile. Let me just say though, that with respect to gold these developments hold enormous implication for both British and U.S. based investors. The dollar price could be driven higher just to augment the program just outlined. Mundell alluded to this over the past thiry days when he said that gold rise to the $600 level over the next decade. In my view, he was trying to be conservative to make a point. If the dollar were to be dumped internationally in favor of the euro, that price could be much higher as speculators moved to take advantage of the situation.

As for Britain, Margaret Thatcher being a student of history she understood what all this talk about militarization meant immediately. Britain is caught in the middle and may be forced to make a choice it would rather avoid -- the United States or Europe. NATO as she said would be history if Europe goes in this direction.

Europe, in fact, would begin to develop its own foreign policy sans the U.S. and Britain -- if that is what it wanted to do. It is not pre-ordained that the United States and Europe would become aggressively competitive, but Britain will not be able to play both ends against the middle for long. Her days of sitting on the fence are rapidly coming to an end, and all this talk of being a bridge between the two is just that -- talk.

Britain might end up being the first state to be admitted to the Union with a Queen -- assuming of course she doesn't abdicate as has been the rumor.

FOA...the bet is still on and we might have closure faster than either of us thought with this talk of Euro-militarization.

beesting (12/09/99; 12:23:43MDT - Msg ID:20640)
Storage of U.S. Gold---From link at the U.S. Mint.
http://www.usmint.gov/facts/facts.htm
The U.S. Mint takes responsibility for storage and safe-keeping of U.S. Gold and Silver assets. From their site:

Denver Mint, Colorado:
Storage of Gold and Silver Bullion.
Philadelphia Mint, Pennsylvania:
Storage of Gold and Silver Bullion.
U.S. Bullion Depository Fort Knox, Kentucky:
Storage of U.S. Gold Bullion.
Mints Responsibility:
Maintaining physical custody of the nations 100 billion of U.S. Gold and Silver assets.

Looks O.K. so far right!-----WRONG-----The figures don't add up right!

Using the formula 1 tonne=32,150 ounces Gold X 8000 tonnes=257,200,000 approx. ounces of Gold in the U.S. Governments care. With me so far?

Now, it's my understanding as per Sir Aristotle and many others that have posted here, the U.S.'s Gold hoard is valued on the Governments books at Approx. $42.00 per ounce.
If we multiply 257,200,000(million ounces of Gold) times $42.00 I get 1,549,400,000. Thats 1.55 Billion Folks!!!

So,lets multiply the 257,200,000 ounces of Gold by $300.00(above todays spot price) It equals 77,160,000,000.
Thats 77.2 Billion.

The figure the mint gave(and these are approximate figures) was 100 Billion in Gold and Silver. So,maybe we do have 22.8 Billion in Silver,at $5.00 per ounce that gives us 4.56 Billion ounces of Silver.

Now,here is the point of this whole long post;
Has The U.S. Government already REVALUED TO MARKET the dollar value of the U.S. Gold hoard???? Inquiring minds want to know,it technically belongs to WE THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA....Thank You.....beesting.

Ed.note.The U.S.Mint is an agency of the U.S. Government!

rsjacksr (12/09/99; 11:15:17MDT - Msg ID:20639)
SOMETHING TO SMILE ABOUT
Two atricles worth reading
http://members.home.net/goldandsilver/joke.htm
Nightly Prayer
[snip] Now I lay me down to sleep
I pray the markets will not retreat
Thank you lord for my special gifts
That allow me to buy on the hottest tips
Follow my portfolio through dips and droughts
Allowing my genius to show no doubts
Give me margin for just one more day
And I'll double my money and begin to say….
"I am an investment god and will never lose!".
Amen


Gods Recall 1,000 Years of Investing: John Dorfman
(Correct)
By John Dorfman
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=John%20Dorfman&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=1e756565c86603a6ebe0db92868a6d5f

You gotta love it.

nickel62 (12/09/99; 10:48:11MDT - Msg ID:20638)
Thanks Journeyman for your response!
I agree with much of your reply. As far a 1-2% depreciation of the falue of money or government sponsered unlimited debasement I think you and I are clearly in the same camp. The fact that history is often wpun to accomodate the positions of the speaker is also a point I agree with without question. that is probably why so many of us come here to this forum to learn even though many of us are far from young in years. We have found it so difficult to find the truth in our prior attemts at learning that only the stubborn and very determined ever get anywhere near it. Or at least so it seems at times.What got me to thinking about this subject was a comment that Antal Fekete made in the brilliant "Whither Gold". Regarding that money was that which had a marginal utility which was so constant that the reciever would be willing to take more without discounting his "price" on an almost unlimited basis. This is of course why most of us on this forum regard gold as money rather than the various paper currencies we are presented in the world.We would take more regardless of how much we already had. This statement reminded me of a period back in the early nineties when as a large holder of gold mining stocks I had read the writing of Andy Smith then with one of the Swiss banks and when hearing his arguement about the demonetization of gold the fear that rose up in my gut was that maybe the ba#tard was right and the "unlimited" gold holdings of the worlds central banks were about to be dumped on my head.And the heads of all other gold stock and physical holders.That fear was that maybe the marginal utility of gold was no longer constant. In other words if the value of your gold was about to be undercut permanently than it was no longer "money" and that in and of itself would bring about the dishoarding of the worlds population as they moved away from a no longer constant store of value. This of course was exactly what MR. Andy Smith and his other spin meisters wanted to create in their audience. They were in the process of actuallizing one of the great hiests in history by the conduit of the gold carry trade to slip the gold basis from the fingers of the world's savers and by diverting the attention toward the ephemeral "wealth of stock and bond investing"clean up big time. In the end they end up with all the gold at ridiculously low prices brought about by the pressure of their own manipulations and the rest of the public end up with the 50 to 500 times price easrnings ratios of various stock frauds from Microsoft to General Electric.
Which most of them don't even understand are owned to a high percentage in each of their retirement plans thanks to the mindless computer buying of their low cost(?) index fund investing strategies.

The only lifeboat that will leave this Titanic will be gold or some comparable store of value that will be largely owned by the very crooks that have spun the game in the first place. Nobody ever said they were stupid.

Which gets me back to the silver situation in the last thirty years of the last century. What ultimately led to the demonetization of silver was the abiltiy to produce much more of it in the last three decades of the 1800s than before in history. This is very similar to the current dramatic reduction of the costs of producing gold in the last twenty years. The advent of heap leaching and open pit mining technology significantly reduced the cost of mining a given ounce of gold.This set the stage for Barrick and the investment bankers to begin the manipulation that we all are very familiar with.The bigger question for all of us is what would happen to gold production should gold rise to higher price levels and would the out flow undercut the very price rise we are expecting.This is a subject well worth further discussion.Because it focusses our attention on a critical component of all of our analysis. Will gold continue to have a constant marginal utility going forward. In other words will it still be money? Dangerous stuff for a gold bug.Most of us feel confident that gold will hold it's value versus paper money. I conceed that point. Will it hold its value as money is a much deeper question having to do with the supply and demand going forward,versus the changing willingness of various societies to hold a substantial portion of their wealth in gold.Anyone with opinions please join in.

Much of the thrust of this question turns on whether or not we are about to see another significant break through in the production economics of gold similar to that brought on with the introduction of the cyanide processs in the 1890s.

Goldiehawk (12/09/99; 10:00:39MDT - Msg ID:20637)
Greenspan and Triffin from Captainfreddy1
This was posted on the Yahoo TVX board, I have previously invited Captainfreddy1 to post here, he has never replied.

Greenspan and Triffin:
by: Captainfreddy1 12/9/1999 8:10 am EST
Msg: 25789 of 25790
We have previously discussed the fact that the late Professor Robert Triffin of Yale, with whom we had a dialogue, maintained that the trade deficit and the current account deficit are an inflationary reflection of overcreation of credit by the Federal Reserve even if the CPI shows no inflation, and that overcreation of credit created the excess demand for goods and services that spilled over into the excess demand for imports as the domestic economy was not able to supply the demand. Now, if we follow the logic of that line of reasoning further, the current account deficit is being offset by inflows of capital much of which is going into the stock market and bond market. There are presently 4.4 trillion plus dollar credits owned by foreigners that you can call hot money because it can flow out of the U.S. overnight as the money is lodged in liquid securities. So what we have is a euphoric stock market boosted up by these foreign inflows, and a lower bond interest rate than would be otherwise as the inflows also go into bonds--thereby boosting the stock market yet the more with lower interest rates, and this is where the contemporary inflation lies. Now, Mr. Greenspan says he wants demand for U.S. goods abroad to rise, especially in Asia, to cure this trade and current account deficit, and then our exports will rise. If that happens, then the money that was flowing into bonds and the stock market will go into the purchase of our exports, and the stock market will begin to sag. There is a problem with this logic in that if employment in manufacturing starts to rise in a tight labor market, then wage rates will start to rise as inflation in the U.S. comes home to roost. To be cont.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Greenspan, Triffin and Rubin:
by: Captainfreddy1 12/9/1999 8:28 am EST
Msg: 25790 of 25795
If the stock market starts to fall, much of this hot money may leave our shores. It would seem that Mr. Greenspan would be forced to raise interest rates, though, not so much as to defend the dollar, but to restrain demand in the U.S. because as our U.S. exports grew it would create inflationary wage pressures in the U.S. The increasing of interest rates would cause the stock market to fall yet the more, and as more foreign funds fled our declining bond market and stock market, the dollar would sag yet the more. Now, the foreign Central Banks, remember our friends the Central Banks, might be reluctant this time around if their economies are overheating to support the dollar so they could export here, as they would not need to in order to foster their economies as their economies would be booming. So we could have a falling stock market and bond market, and a falling dollar to boot. The U.S. economy would be more sound as the manufacturing sector grew at the expense of the parasitic stock market sector of our Manhattan denizens much discussed on this board. If this can be facilitated in a slow manner, all to the good, but the declining dollar should then reestablish the price of gold at a higher level in relation to the dollar, as the dollar's value was terribly inflated by Rubin's and Greenspan's high dollar policy in the face of huge trade deficits. I have long maintained that this high dollar policy had a lot to do with the sucking of investment away from Asia and South America, and in a sense Rubin paved the way for Soros to make a fortune tanking the Asian currencies by setting up the structural setting that the shorting of currencies by Soros could work in. As we have earlier related, Mr. Rubin was challenged in a group that we were present at suggesting that these artificial inflows were reminiscent of the artificial inflows that created the German prosperity in l929 that caused Dr. Schacht to resign as Reichbank President in Germany. Rubin was about to resign himself, and joked "let the crash happen after me!" He later went on to say the U.S. was following the sound policies to instill confidence in its economy that will keep the flows coming. Well, we doubt it as we have just related, but we hope change will come slowly and not in a panic.


Journeyman (12/09/99; 09:46:16MDT - Msg ID:20636)
Fort Knox gold source?
What was the ultimate source of the Fort Knox gold? Was this the destination of the gold stolen from the American people by FDR beginning in 1933?

Why is it "unprecedented" to have "our" congress critters check-out or audit "our" gold? It isn't even claimed to belong to the Federal Reserve!!
Duh,
Journeyman


USAGOLD (12/09/99; 09:29:55MDT - Msg ID:20635)
Today's Market Report
MARKET REPORT(12/9/99): Gold was down in early New York trading.
Bridge News cites "fresh fund selling" for the dip. How often have we
seen that in the daily description of gold activity? Coincidentally, the
Comptroller of the Currency statistics on gold derivative trading are
out for the third quarter. Keep in mind this is the period just before
the Washington Agreement when gold was mired in the $250s. During that
period, the notional derivative amount rose from $61.4 billion to $83.4
billion -- a nearly 36% increase! There's more nonsense from the
anti-gold spinmeisters in today's London Reuters -- this time from GNI
Research, another London gold bear. Noting the Washington Agreement to
limit leases and sales, they claim "plenty of other central banks will
fill the void." Russia didn't sell gold in November "to fill the void."
It sold 20% of its gold because the ruble had collapsed; it had little
in the way of hard currency reserves; and it had to sell the 80 tons to
raise capital. Countries rarely sell gold because they want to; and
almost always because they have to. Those of you who follow this report
on a daily basis know that I list Britain and the Netherlands in the
forced sale category -- despite their claims to the contrary.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

Those visiting this report with an interest in the type of analysis you
see in these pages on a daily basis might be tempted to try a trial
subscription of our widely read, quoted, and acclaimed monthly
newsletter, News & Views. It is offered free of charge and without
obligation or encumbrance save the desire to get to the bottom of what's
going on in the gold market. It will offer some insights on why you
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Just click here ---> ORDER FORM <--- and make the appropriate entries.
This month

we go behind the scenes in the gold market to tell what's
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A New Millennium Gold Rush: The Bull Market is
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give a helpful and current Review of Recommend- ations,

and eloquently though somewhat irreverently discuss the
state of the American economic, political and cultural
scene throughout.

If you haven't been part of the News & Views experience, you haven't
gotten the whole story on gold.

Felix the Cat (12/09/99; 09:19:20MDT - Msg ID:20634)
Re: Simple Me
Sir, now, I can understood what you need!
well, "xie xie" means "Thanks" (in Madarin)
<:-)

F. C

Journeyman (12/09/99; 08:25:06MDT - Msg ID:20633)
1870s monetary appreciation @nickel62
Re: MID:2630. Haven't had time to check the url, but ---
As Murray Rothbard used to say, "What's wrong with a little deflation.?" He was, naturally meaning monetary vehicle appreciation, which leads to gradual generalprice decreases.

I suspect ORO or perhaps Aristotle may want to set me strait on this, but while classicly this appreciation was connected to recession and depression, tain't necessarily so. Contrast a 1% yearly appreciation in monetary token value with today's "no inflation" rate of approximately 2% yearly currency token depreciation.

There are other ways of trading than using the official monetary vehicles -- at the time, but many of these hadn't matured yet.

Finally, the economic upheavals of the period were mild in comparison to what we are now used to, (the worst bank panic of the period saw only about 2.8% of banks fail as compared to ~50% of banks being unsound in 1933 after 20 years of the Federal Reserve and defacto paper money)though to the citizens of the period, I'm sure they seemed harsh and it was undoubtedly this perception that fueled the move to the "paper standard."

Finally, be careful of history, particularly financial history -- there's a strong economic motivation (seigniorage) to have it spun, groomed and emphasised to fit the interests and profits of the government/bank cliques. It doesn't necessarily have to be done or paid for by a clique member, just spun that way by popular percetption, egged on by the media, etc. Remember, the "central bank" crowd had been trying to "get it on" since the 1st American Revolution & Hamilton and his creature, the First Bank of The US. President Andrew Jackson nearly lost his presidency -- was nearly impeached -- because of his ultimately successful opposition to the central bank forces of his era.

Remember, these forces were constantly agitating against the dicipline and low seigniorage of "hard" money, and never missed a chance to diss it. "History" includes such disses as if they were not only facts, but momentous facts. 1% monetary token appreciation or 2% to infinity% monetary token depreciation. Which do you prefer?

Regards,
Journeyman


PH in LA (12/09/99; 08:21:12MDT - Msg ID:20632)
As Time Runs Out
FOA:
Today Bill Murphy writes: "Some in our gold crowd talk of settlements of physical gold. The Frank Veneroso's of the world believe the big guys are SO SHORT gold they cannot get out. That is the reason for this continued manipulation. The gold loans are over 10,000 tonnes now. The shorts
are trapped. Thus the gold loans are not loans because they cannot give back the asset. Ted Butler (I Accuse) is right. The loans are a fraud. THERE CAN BE NO SETTLEMENT - what BANK makes loans on something that cannot be paid back?"

If I read your thoughts correctly, the evolution of this situation has been as the intentional laying of groundwork in preparation for the new reserve currency status of the Euro as it takes over from the dollar. If the above-mentioned 10,000+ tonnes is truly "unrepayable" and the ultimate solution (after the collapse of the current dollar-based settlement system) is intended to be the establishment of a Euro-based gold trading mechanism with final settlement being allowed in Euros to establish it as a viable reserve currency, would it not be fair to say that the new trading/market system in Euros must be openly established soon to provide for a (quasi-?)orderly transition as this all unravels? With the public accusations now being launched at Congress by GATA, isn't time running out even faster for the Euro organizers? It seems unlikely that they would have anticipated such a developement to be coming from within the United States in this way.

What a story!

Peter Asher (12/09/99; 07:58:04MDT - Msg ID:20631)
Virtual Gold
Contiuation of Peter Asher (12/08/99; 22:34:04MDT - Msg ID:20614)
Perhaps 50% of the 5000 or of pages written here over the last year and a quarter have been about driving the price of physical gold down by selling paper contacts of delivery promises. That game has become so large as to be unmanageable and so another method must be sought to create more sales volume to continue the downward price moment. The IMF has obligingly come up with a "Cutting edge of monetary technology" --Virtual Gold Sales!

9 million ounces "Coming on the market" would naturally depress the POG. Of course no Gold is really being sold here, its just being passed over and back. But, the game will create an apparency of a sale and probably it's effect will be seen as a market influence by all the fools out there who think things like money is in the stock market and the baby boomers are going to take it to 20,000.

nickel62 (12/09/99; 07:40:28MDT - Msg ID:20630)
What happened to my last post?
I would appreciate it if you could explain what happened to the last post I submitted. Thank you.

nickel62 (12/09/99; 07:29:19MDT - Msg ID:20629)
Anyone who hasn't read the essays on money at the below URL should partake. Perhaps the clearest most insightful treatment of the problems of a fiat currency and the variousconflicts with a commodity based monetary system I've ever read.
www.micheloud.com/FXM/MH/index.htm
The above sight has a basic interactive course in understanding the Bimetallic Monetary system of the 19th century which may not sound that interesting until one realizes that the "revelations"we have been alluding to about the possible emergence of a physical market for gold revolving around the BIS versus the paper oriented current system has many similarities in the systems that clashed in the last century. Perhaps the most telling comment in the presentation is the following:

Effects on the Money Stock, Output and Prices 1873-1896

Between 1873 and 1896 the strong worldwide deflation struck
especially hard in the US, with a 1% annual decline in the general
CPI for the whole period.

The money stock could not keep pace with the tremendous rise in
output during that period (?? % a year) and the spreading
monetization of the economy. Even with a more efficient banking
system, the total money stock could not be stretched far enough
on the currency base, the increase in the rate of increase of which
had declined, to avoid deflation.

The current era of rapid growth of output over the last fifty years might well have caught us in a similar situation if the advent of fiat currency had not expanded the money supply rapidly enough to keep up with the needs of the world economies. As musch as it pains a gold bug there are lessons to be learned from the last thirty years of the nineteenth century that may make us more able to understand the current rapidly evolving monetary situation. The basic fact of the monetary dynamics of the nineteenth century was that the production of silver on an annual basis increased three fold during the last thirty years of the nineteenth century and this over production led/contributed to the demonetization of silver which removed the largest single usage of silver and greatly contributed to the rapid decline in its value.This left only a gold standard which because of relative scarcity constricted the money supply during a period when mass production techniques were first being introduced and led to thirty years of falling prices and depression. The subsequent developement of the ability to produce gold in molar (fine granular particles)form from the introduction of the cyanide process in the 1890s caused a tremendous increase in the supply of gold world wide and thus the monetary base which led to a general world wide inflation from the 1896 to the First World War. The dynamics that I found starteling was the nature of the imiportance of maintaining a very fine balance between the need for monetary looseness and the necessity to keep the value of the currency over time. The play out in the relative shifts of wealth between lenders of capital and the borrowers of capital and the poducers of commodities is particularily pertinent to today. I founs it most informative and thought provoking.

Al Fulchino (12/09/99; 06:59:07MDT - Msg ID:20628)
Mix liberally with your morning coffee
FINANCE
The News
México City, December 9, 1999.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OPEC BITING INTO WORLD OIL RESERVES
By RICHARD MABLY

Reuters

LONDON -- World oil inventories now are being drawn down so rapidly that consumers in the West might even be hit by retail supply outages this winter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Wednesday.

Stockpiles already depleted by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) supply curbs are being drawn down more quickly than expected by Iraq's decision to suspend exports because of a wrangle at the United Nations over a new resolution on sanctions.

"Without Iraqi output in December we run the danger of seeing some spot outages to consumers in the supply of heating oil or gasoline this winter," said David Knapp, the head of the oil markets division at the West's Paris-based oil watchdog.

Iraq previously was supplying 2.3 million barrels a day (bpd) to the 75 million bpd world market and says it will only resume sales under the original conditions of the U.N.'s oil-for-food exchange. The U.N. is likely to vote on a new sanctions resolution later this week.

Robert Priddle, the IEA's executive director, said in Washington on Tuesday that the agency was projecting a five million bpd shortfall in global oil supplies during December.

Priddle told reporters that if the millennium computer bug were to disrupt deliveries at the end of the year the agency was prepared to order the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) governments which it represents to tap their strategic reserves.

In its monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday, the IEA said commercial inventories among industrialized nations fell 440,000 barrels a day in October after an unusually large 1.56 million bpd draw in September.

"This is a thirsty oil market waiting for more oil which will have to come from OPEC," said the IEA.

OPEC has maintained unusually tight compliance with the export limits it put in place in March and according to latest IEA data reduced supply further in November.

Cartel output fell 700,000 bpd to 25.8 million bpd during the month, partly because of Iraq's absence, and compliance with supply curbs rose to 89 percent of targeted levels.

OPEC officials in public insist they have no plans to change output policy before next April, when their year-long agreement expires.

However, OPEC insiders say big producers like Saudi Arabia are worried about stoking inflationary pressures in the West and don't want to see the market get out of hand. The IEA said this year's recovery in oil prices has yet to make any major impact on commercial upstream activity, leaving OPEC as the only source of extra supply to meet rising demand.

"Oil supply from outside OPEC is increasing much less rapidly than demand," it said. "Little of the production that was shut in or lost due to lack of workovers and other upstream investment during last year's price collapse has reappeared." The IEA said OECD industry stocks by the end of October stood 15 million barrels below the end of October 1997 and within 100 million barrels of their lows in October 1996.

"Continued rapid declines in November may indeed have brought OECD industry stocks almost to the 1996 level," it added.

Oil prices, at 25 dollars a barrel for benchmark Brent blend on Wednesday, were last as high in 1996 when oil companies chose to save money by slicing inventories.

Analysts have warned that 30 dollars a barrel for Brent, a threefold rise from February's lows, could be on the cards.

The IEA said North America, the world's largest oil consuming region, bore the brunt of the October stockdraw.

Inventories in the United States dipped 755,000 bpd in October and 1.25 million bpd through most of November.

"The U.S. stockdraw in December could approach two million bpd," it added.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[FINANCE]

Cavan Man (12/09/99; 06:55:30MDT - Msg ID:20627)
FOA 20625/ORO 20619
Hello FOA. ORO's questions are good ones. I hope you will answer them in great detail as you time permits. A similar thought sequence and corresponding question, not nearly as comprehensive as ORO, occurred to me last night as well and I will ask it here.

Those THOUGHTS we discuss here; are Mssrs. Greenspan, Summers, Clinton intimately aware of current, international monetary events? Or, are they in denial (not just a river in Egypt)? If they see the "handwriting on the wall", what might be their contingency plans if events continue to unfold as you predict?

As an aside and on the subject of UK monetary union with the Euro, I recently had dinner in London with a retired London banker and his wife. This topic was discussed at length. The banker was very objective and conceded the eventuality of Sterling giving way. His wife was quite the opposite and voiced her dismay over the loss of sovereignty etc. I believe this discussion to be a window into both current and future events for GB. Key decision makers will, of necessity, move the general populace albeit painstakingly toward full integration with the Euro. Comments? Thanks.

Hipplebeck (12/09/99; 05:23:16MDT - Msg ID:20626)
IMF deal
Isn't this just a way to "print up" 2 Billion more dollars?

FOA (12/09/99; 05:05:18MDT - Msg ID:20625)
Reply
ORO (12/09/99; 00:38:13MDT - Msg ID:20619)
FOA - Iron Lady and EU arms - Questions of the LBMA

ORO,
GOOD discussion! I'll be back much later with my thinking and some of Another's (if he is around). The whole question of the very power and existence of the London gold market is whether they can function using a realigned price? I doubt it. In the same way a newer software
package makes the old "unneeded"? Be back late,, FOA

Netking (12/09/99; 02:06:10MDT - Msg ID:20624)
'Sheriff' CHRIS of GATA
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In a few hours GATA's two-page advertisement will be
published in Roll Call, the twice-weekly newspaper
that covers the U.S. Congress and is very well read
at the U.S. Capitol. We are demanding answers from
the U.S. Federal Reserve System and the U.S.
Treasury Department about U.S. policy toward gold.
We also are calling for an audit of U.S. gold reserves
at Fort Knox, Kentucky.

For the ad to work, we need our American friends
to help by contacting their U.S. senators and
representatives, calling their attention to GATA's ad
in Roll Call, and asking them to seek DIRECT answers
to GATA's questions.

That is, the Fed and the Treasury may not take GATA
or any particular U.S. citizen very seriously. They may
be ready to give misleading answers. But the Fed and
the Treasury will think twice about being less than
forthcoming with a member of Congress who is asking
his own questions.

Please get in touch with your senators and representative
immediately and ask them to read GATA's ad in the
December 9 issue of Roll Call, seek answers to GATA's
questions themselves, and then provide those answers
to you. Stress, cordially, your request that the Fed and
the Treasury provide the answers directly to your
senators and representatives and that your senators and
representatives in turn forward the answers to you.

This citizen action is especially important in states
where mining operations and mining company headquarters
are located. Congressmen from those states are likely
to be more helpful and persistent.

Never underestimate the power of an informed,
persistent, and well-mannered citizen in our democracy.

Gold, the integrity it stands for, and the mining industry
have been abused in recent years precisely because
they have declined to fight back against some powerful
interests.

Now gold is fighting back.

Please help us.

You can find all the contact information you need
for your senators and representative by going to:

http://www.vote-smart.org

Scroll to the bottom of the page, type in your
ZIP code, and click on "GO." You can figure out
the rest.

You may refer to the text of the GATA ad at:

http://www.gata.org/latest.html

or at:

http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/309.html?

The former site contains an image of the advertisement,
as well as the text. I hope you'll find it as attractively
designed as I do!

The economic policy of the United States is public policy,
not private policy. Please help us discover just what that
policy is. If it is what we suspect it is, it won't be able to
withstand the light of day.

Please post this as seems useful.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


ORO (12/09/99; 01:30:55MDT - Msg ID:20623)
Non-Productivity From Veneroso
http://www.venerosoassociates.com/PDF/0921%20Part%202.PDF
http://www.venerosoassociates.com/PDF/0921%20Procuctivity%20Part%203.pdf

For part 2

Like the Economist article, he quotes Dr Gordon at Northwestern.

Highlights:

· We present Robert Gordon's comparisons of productivity in the non-farm private business
economy.
Sector 1950:2-1972:2 1972:2-1995:4 1995:4-1999:1
Nonfarm Private Business 2.63 1.13 2.15
· Productivity is pro cyclical, that is, it exceeds trend in strong business expansions. Gordon
estimates that the cyclical expansion since 1995 added .3% per annum to non-farm private
business labor productivity.
· A series of changes in the measurement of the CPI starting in the early 1990's has reduced
inflation and raised real output. Gordon concludes that these changes have increased labor
productivity by .43 percent.
· Adjusting for the above two factors, it appears that labor productivity has only been .29% higher
in the last several years versus the productivity bust years from the early 1970's to the mid
1990's.


YGM (12/09/99; 01:14:00MDT - Msg ID:20622)
From Bill Murphy
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
Le Metropole members,

Before the servings, a bit of chit chat.
Could not get to a Midas tonight as there
was too much effort that had to be put into
our "Open Letter" campaign tomorrow. First
feedback came late today from the Senate
Banking Committee. They liked it and were
very impressed. I know at least 3 Cafe
members that know Senate Banking Chairman,
Phil Gramm. Make sure that you contact him.

However, the best feedback came from Café
members. Money has poured in. Thanks so much
from so MANY of you that have responded to
the call for action. And THANKS to so many of
you that have already emailed Congress. We are
all doing what we can do. Collectively, it
can make a BIG difference. "Shake a Tailfeather"
TEAM - GO FOR IT - NOW!

The "Hannibal Cannibal" crowd and their sugar daddies
are arrogant and not expecting this kind of
surprise attack. Another Pearl Harbor GATA
special. Be relentless.! GATA is -why not you?
- that is you have an interest in the gold an
silver markets? It is time for us to WIN THE
DAY - we can and we will! BIG money is on the
table for you. Make YOUR OWN DAY.

OK - Briefly the news of the day was crude
oil's comeback to close a good bit higher
after being down nearly a dollar. Harry
Schultz here we come. More on that soon.

The other was the BANK INDEX - down over 19
POINTS AGAIN. Hello out there stock
market world. The banking shares are dive
bombing. Hail Peabody!

Speaking of hailing. I just had dinner with
Marshall Auerback, an associate of Frank
Veneroso, who flew in from London and Doug
Noland who works with David Tice. Big Time
winners these guys and they are suffering
like all of us who believe in gold market
investments and that the stock market is
a giant bubble.

This is what hit me market talk most of
our dinner:

Some in our gold crowd talk of settlements
of physical gold. The Frank Veneroso's of
the world believe the big guys are SO SHORT
gold they cannot get out. That is the reason
for this continued manipulation. The gold
loans are over 10,000 tonnes now. The shorts
are trapped. Thus the gold loans are not
loans because they cannot give back the
asset. Ted Butler (I Accuse) is right. The
loans are a fraud. THERE CAN BE NO SETTLEMENT
- what BANK makes loans on something that
cannot be paid back?

Doug Noland pointed out that this may be one
big money game out of control game. FANNY MAE has $15
billion in equity and $450 billion of debt.
Just like gold, there is a question of
SETTLEMENT. Only the good faith of our
government guarantees, SETTLEMENT. Can
they make it and guarantee it? Who knows?

Maybe that is why Greenspan and Summers are
panicked over gold. Getting too late- more
on this soon. Tomorrow, our troops launch
an early strike at dawn. Our day is coming
big time. Keep the Faith.


Peter Grandich has served commentary at
The Dos Passos Table entitled, " Grandich
Newsletter Flash.

"Bonds- Are in a classical bear market mode
of one step up and two steps back. I continue
to see a 7% yield on the 30 year T-bond. Only
on a break below 5.95% would I turn bullish.

Gold- Can you recall what President Roosevelt
said forty-eight years ago today? It had to do
with what was then considered a
sneak attack on Pearl Harbor (but we learned
later on that our government had sufficient
warning). Before the attack, there was a virtual
tidal wave of interest against us entering the War.
There were, of course, a few lone voices warning
us of the impending dangers."

Charles Peabody has served commentary
at the Toulouse-Lautrec Table entitled,
"SunTrust - "Another Fourth Quarter Shortfall."

"In past reports (see reports entitled
"You Get What You See"), I have often referred to
SunTrust as the bank that delivers what the
marketplace permits. In other words,
management did not resort to financial engineering
gimmicks to produce earnings that weren't
natural. However, ever since the Crestar merger
that aspect of this bank has changed
(see report entitled "Inconsistencies Abound"
dated April 14, 1999). I suspect that management
is desperately trying to avoid the pitfalls
that befell other organizations
like First Union (FTU-$37-HOLD) and Bank One
(ONE-$34-SELL)."

David Tice has served commentary at the
Hemingway Table entitled, " Mount Everest -
Day 29"

"Actually, today is the 29th trading day
of the historic speculative run that began
on October 28th. Since the lows of October 27th,
the NASDAQ100 has surged 31%. The Morgan Stanley
Technology index has gained 41%, the
Semiconductors 36%, The Street.com Internet
index 55% and the NASDAQ Telecommunications index
28%. Gains for many stocks have been truly
breathtaking. Red Hat has gained 230%, Exodus
Communications 123%, QUALCOMM 92%, and Yahoo!
86%; just to name a few."






<A HREF="http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com/scripts/products.cfm">Le Metropole Cafe</A>

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Le Patron
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com




PH in LA (12/09/99; 00:52:07MDT - Msg ID:20621)
More Fort Knox Gold (reply to aurator @ Kitco)
Date: Thu Dec 09 1999 00:49
aurator (Did ya paint them lead bars with Bessemer's brass paint? No? Well, let's have a look....) ID#251181:
Copyright © 1999 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bart/Murphy
That's good news. In the interests of keeping informed, I found this a while ago in one of my books, and posted it. Perhaps, if Murphy is gonna focus on Fort Knox, it may be of use.

------

" ( In the Washington post ) of Friday July 1974. There was a report that the Treasury Secretary, William E Simon, had agreed to allow a delegation of Congressmen, to inspect the gold in Fort Knox. ....Tuesday 24 September, a picture of Mrs Mary Brooks, the director of the Federal Mint, standing in front of a stack of gold bars and grinning. The report, beneath the picture quoted Representative Crane as having said "The gold is safe. The gold is here." It also stated that the US Treasurer, Francine Neff, had announced that the bullion would be audited.

"It never was, as far as I know…"
John Goldsmith Bullion

=====

I got the full reference somewhere. Can anyone get the Washington post copied on-line Tuesday 24 September 1974? Is there a story?

•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Aurator:
This whole story is discussed at great length in the Beter Radio Broadcasts. See: http://www.l0pht.com/pub/tezcat/Beter/

Also (and easier to navigater):
http://www.in-search-of.com/frames/government/articles/peter_beter.shtml

""In September 1974 Dr. Beter acquired a new distinction as "the man who opened Fort Knox." The previous April Dr. Beter had charged in congressional testimony that the legendary U.S. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox had been looted of America's monetary gold hoard allegedly stored there. He stood ready to present evidence and witnesses to substantiate his charges. But neither a grand jury nor a congressional inquiry into the matter materialized...so Dr. Beter then took his case directly to the public. Through lectures, radio talk shows, and publication of his charges in a tabloid newspaper (National Tattler), he was able to put such intense pressure on the federal government that a completely unprecedented step was taken in order to still the public outcry. The U.S. Treasury Department arranged a so-called "gold inspection" visit for a few Congressmen and 100 invited newsmen on September 23, 1974. Significantly, however, Dr. Beter himself was not among those invited...nor was any other outside expert on gold. The celebrated Fort Knox visit and the so-called "gold audit" which followed contained many irregularities which the Treasury Department has never explained.""


Netking (12/09/99; 00:46:23MDT - Msg ID:20620)
Volatility
http://www.kitco.com/gold.graph.html
Is this volatility or what?

ORO (12/09/99; 00:38:13MDT - Msg ID:20619)
FOA - Iron Lady and EU arms - Questions of the LBMA
FOA, I believe that the EU countries will find it difficult to cooperate, which is allways a plus when attempting to minimize war driven monetary inflation. But as a defense system, the independent EU military may be a positive in a way not possible before. Namely, to supply the world with a military force that only operates by wide consensus and is sensitive to issues of sovereignty, as opposed to the current US/UK system that tends to act in the interest of odd humanitarian concepts and for the furtherance of the misunderstood and misapplied concepts.
The world is suffering today from the tyranny of the US humanitarian conscience. Being blurry in focus and misguided by self delusions of its own propagandists (particularly of Ted Turner and bride Fonda) they may well level a country that has done no one any harm. With the example of Yugoslavia behind us, I am certain that the whole of the sovereignty minded world will obtain the needed "weapons of mass destruction" to protect against the US delusions of sainthood. I would not be surprised to find Latin American buyers in Russian, Chinese, Paki, South African, and other military shows - perhaps in Europe too - looking for the very weapons they are prohibited from obtaining by the non-proliferation treaties.

FOA, do you think that this is the trend before us? How do you view the outcome?

You indicate that the UK has understood that its economic future is with the EU and the BIS organization, and has been dragged kicking and screaming (however muffled these screams may be) into the fold. The Iron Lady seems to have been left out of the loop, and I would venture a guess as to the Torries' being in the dark as well, all but the few in key leadership ("king making") positions.
FOA, how much of a done deal is the inclusion of the UK into the EU? The LBMA, would it be "saved" if it were willing, under the BOE leadership, to play along with the EU plan?
Another question: The level of awareness of the bullion banks as to their vulnerability to a "bank run" is obviously high, the question is whether they are aware of the closeness of the end of the line. (1) Do they understand that the EU is no longer aligned with the US in protecting the dollar? (2) Are they aware of the gold revaluation concept for backing the Euro? (3) Do they understand the situation which they are in regarding the consequences of the Arab Oil being pulled away from its role of supporting the dollar? (4) Are they aware that the Oil Royal's gold will be both pulled out from further cycling through the lending schemes and revalued by the direct trade of oil for gold without 100% transit through the dollar?
Finally, do the bankers that run the bullion banking business understand that the days of the dollar are numbered? That the dollar has no intrinsic value, and that it can't obtain value from being a medium of exchange? That the quality of the cash dollar is undergoing a substantial and fundumental change from that of being, in effect, an oil receipt backed by gold exchange (at a controlled exchange rate approximating redeemability) in the LBMA, to that of being nothing in particular at all finally trading as fully floating currency as it had before 1980?
Is the gold redeemability point lost on the LBMA members as it was lost on most actors in the financial markets? Is the "de facto" dollar redeemability (into paper gold) - through exchange at the LBMA - a true representation of the system till the advent of the Euro?


PH in LA (12/09/99; 00:26:59MDT - Msg ID:20618)
Fort Knox Gold and GATA
Interesting that GATA is just now getting around to wondering about the gold in Fort Knox. This is a question that was already discussed here at USAGold almost a year ago. I am citing the original reference which can be accessed directly in our own archives: http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/24199812/day2.html

Anyone interested in the topic might also want to check out: PH in LA (12/26/98; 13:35:30MDT - Msg ID:1507) Has the gold in Fort Knox disappeared?
(http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/26199812day2.html)

The question seems to have been raised by a Dr. Beter (see above archive posts for complete details) in a 1975 series of radio broadcasts. Dr. Beter made some very serious allegations and called for an official public audit of the Fort Knox gold reserves... something that has still not been done to this day.

GATA seems to be smelling a rat here. And it is worth noting that they are not the first to have done so. The whole question of the US Treasury's gold reserves which seem to be under the care and custodianship of the Federal Reserve is a very complicated can of worms. With GATA's very public assault on the Fed's actions in the gold arena, now would be a very good time to bring some of these worms out into the public gaze.

It seems to me that I have a vague recollection of reading somewhere how during the depression, there were secret negotiations carried out between the federal government and the Federal Reserve to reorganize the world financial system in light of the bankruptcy of the federal government. The gold in Fort Knox was involved somehow... certain encumbrances were placed on it by the Federal Reserve, although I seem to recall that outright ownership was not transferred to the Federal Reserve. I believe FOA has referred to this in the past.

Does anyone else know about this? Certainly, backround information would be appreciated in case Alan Greenspan does become persuaded (by GATA directly, or by members of Congress) to speak to this question.



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