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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/8/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Goldendome
(08/08/05; 23:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 134759)
Sirs Goldi & Ned
Goldilox: Isn't it interesting how the inflation or hyperinflation arguments clash with the deflationist views? Yet they both travel the same direction--toward disaster, along what may be parallel paths within sight of one another.
As J. Puplava has stated many times on his Financial Sense Newshour, he feels that we will suffer both inflation in required items (food, energy, health care, etc.) and deflation in leveraged financial items (real estate, bonds, stocks, etc.) both at the same time!
The question has been asked: How can you have deflation with $60 dollar oil? Why not with $100 oil? I think we can see that this could happen. The price of oil affects the pricing or profitability of a highly leveraged entity, group, or risk exposure, causing a large "hole" to appear where once was perceived a great fiat currency valuation---that is a deflation!
And should it spread, affect other markets and participants...well, who can say how many financial dominos could be threatened and fall. I have come to think that a deflationary "event" could cause a great knee-jerk movement into the monetary metals, faster than an inflation. So, yes, I think Puplava may be largely correct in his assertions that high rates of inflation and deflation may be able to exist together.
I was going to post a link for Ned, to a June 18th interview by Puplava with Robert Prechter at the Financial Sense Newshour, but my computer is acting up, not wanting to show URL's and I may need the assistance of second offspring to correct the mal-function. You know how that can be with we older technophobes. I listened to that interview again yesterday. Thought it good; it's little wonder that they agree on many and most things. Just how things progress and develop is a friendly point of controversy. So, Ned, if your interested, go to the "Ask the Experts" then click the 2005 Experts and look for the date 6-18-05 with Prechter. You can either listen or get a written transcript of the interview.
Have a great evening. Gdome
Goldilox
(08/08/05; 22:50:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 134758)
Simmons
@ Goldendome,
I especially liked the irony in his globalization remarks.
Increased localization being empowered by stifling fuel costs.
Who says market self-balancing principles are dead?
If this somes about, obviously, some new energy algorithms are gonna be needed.
Goldendome
(08/08/05; 22:33:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 134757)
World economy may well decline.
Sir Mas: Remove 25% of world consumption and we will certainly have a different economy; not necessarily for the better prosperity of all. But your points are well taken and may happen in the natural course of events.
Matt Simmons made a point in the interview, that I don't think has been presented here yet.
It is, that the developed nations, in particular, have deluded themselves forever about the perpetual supply of cheap fossil fuels. They have developed cities, mass infrastructure, and business and industry that will now, in the near future, be unsustainable, as fossil fuels inexorably increase in price. By not insisting earlier on, that real prices be higher--by forcing production ever higher--developed nations have built their economies on false cost structures that may shortly lead to disaster.
He further opined that the Globalization of trade is coming at precisely the wrong time. His view, that soon companies aren't going to be able to afford to outsource world wide for every facet of their production components. Localization will be coming back into vogue.
Goldilox
(08/08/05; 21:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 134756)
Ilusions
@ Flaccus,
Interesting that use the word "illusion" in this "Made for TV" world situation.
Don't know how much time you've spent in third world countries, but I found just getting off the plane quite an experience. The mass migrations from "poor" agrarian lifestyles have filled the city streets with hungry beggers in most major cities. At least as poor farmers they had a chance to feed themselves.
I guess the bottom line is whether we really want to "build self-sufficiency" or just make everyone "beholding" to the IMF/WB model.
The IMF history (well documented) as been to "advance" huge sums to friendly junta governments - the lion's share of which is used for "police weapons" to protect the generalissimo's power. Little of it actually goes to "development". Once the locals realise thay have been hood-winked by those in power, the junta is overthrown and flees, leaving behind huge debts to the banks that propped up the generalissimo in the first place. The "renegotiations" of that debt includes "privatization" of their resources (selling them to foreign interests) so the process can begin anew.
NAFTA and CAFTA hold great promise to reduce the US work force to similar conditions of debt burden as soon as foreign interests decide to stop funding the "consumer miracle". ARMs have reached 40% of new home mortgages, setting new home buyers up for a serious ravaging of their last vestige of "savings".
The bottom line is that the 20th Century, aside from being the bloodiest in human history, with over 100M deaths by human hands, in addition to some of the most deadly famines in history, has actually aided the transfer of more assets to the smallest percentage of individuals in history.
While those of us with some open eyes on this forum struggle to obtain what we hope to sustain us in later years in a "safer" form of savings, our taxation resources, originally earmarked for domestic services, are being redistibuted to the collaborators of world-wide resource plunder. How much of our SSI contributions have funded the oil admin's resource wars?
Now that admin wants to give the SSI proceeds to the same brokers who destroyed our 401k's with their ENRON facade and "Y2K bubble. I get no sense of financial security from that plan.
I recommend you find a copy of "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" for further documentation.
mas
(08/08/05; 21:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 134755)
Flaccus
Remove 25% consumption from the world today and what do we have? Lower oil prices? Better economies? Stability? No war in Iraq, thats for sure. No reserve currency? Pollution, no melting Greenland Ice lake. What else?
Take your pick. I may have it wrong, but that's the way I see it. We need better conservation methods, and that all points towards lower consumption. Or maybe we are reading this all wrong, could it be that the oil price isn't going up but the dollar is going down?
We wait and watch. Fed should have dropped the gold price yesterday by at least 10 USD's, will they be able to do it tonight? Be interesting if the gold price went up, that would really start to raise some questions about what is really going on with interest rate rises. (Junk bonds comes to mind).
Flaccus
(08/08/05; 20:52:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 134754)
Goldilox
I would argue the opposite. American consumption elevates the world's workers, moreso than Marxist dogma could have dreamed. For every skyscraper built there are thousands in Africa fed. As for the debt, how much of this economy is an illusion; how much reality? Would you rather live in a prosperous illusion or a poverty stricken reality? Now there's a question the philosophers hanging on the periphery of this table might take pains to address.
R Powell
(08/08/05; 20:16:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 134753)
BB
Thanks for the link..!
R Powell
(08/08/05; 20:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 134752)
Basic silver fundamentals
http://www.silverinstitute.org/wssum05.pdf
I've always been a believer that over the long, looong term, the law of supply and demand would set prices or, at least, highly influence them. In extreme situations, higher prices should be necessary to curb demand or channel smaller supplies to those who need that supply the most. Conversely, lower prices (sometimes below production costs) should discourage production when that production becomes too excessive. Coffee prices from about 2000 until mid-late 2004 are an example of a commodity priced below the cost of production. But the longer I study economics, the more convinced I become that I know very little.
But I'll post this link for what it's worth + for whoever is interested. The sources are suspect, as usual, but there isn't much of an alternative for number crunchers like myself. Anybody got any others..???
rich
Goldilox
(08/08/05; 19:31:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 134751)
Less oil consumption
@ Flaccus,
Fewer skyscrapers and less debt, perhaps?
One thing the economic boom of the Strong Dollar Reserve has enabled is the transfer of more wealth to billionaires and the nearly constant lowering of living conditions for most of the workers of the world (first world included).
With rebellion from the IMF/WB strangleholds growing in third world countries, we are now seeing a second wave of resource transfer in the NAFTA and CAFTA debacles, that also further erode US manufacturing strength.
The RE bubble exhibits some very concerning risks, as struggling US homeowners will likely find the banks owning their property and renting it back as in the 1930's.
Hedonistic BLS figures hide the unemployed behind their official epithets of "underutilized" and "not looking for work". Adding these numbers in from the footnotes of their own reports brings unemployment well into double digits - certainly not conducive to stability in an exploding RE market. Latest RE numbers show that upward of 50% of homebuyers are in the "speculative investment" market, not purchasing their own dwelling.
This debt balloon thingy will likely end badly!
Flaccus
(08/08/05; 19:20:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134750)
mas
Sorry. Misunderstood your post on first reading. Point remains but not directed at you.
Goldilox
(08/08/05; 19:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 134749)
Daily Wrapup - Rob Kirby
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:
I have gone on enough about oil, but did so because in many regards, I feel the oil story parallels the same type of unsustainable structure we are currently facing in the world's fiat money regime. Too much un-backed money and credit is being produced for currency to maintain its value. Amazingly, there has been no credible audit of the U.S. sovereign gold reserve alleged to be largely stored at Fort Knox, West Point and the Denver Mint – for 50 years, coincidence ehh? The bulk of mainstream economists and media ‘have always assumed’ the Wizard – Easy Al Greenspan has everything under control and the Federal Reserve is really an inflation fighting do good organization. Great efforts are made on the part of officialdom to marginalize folks who challenge these long held views. Gold bugs contend that officialdom is selling gold - rigging its price to perpetuate an unsustainable fiat money system that is doomed to fail and obscuring their actions through obfuscation including everything from creative accounting to fudging numbers to outright lies and deceit. The claims from officialdom center on their proclamations that ‘they too have done the numbers and everything looks fine’ – with official reports of a strong economy, low unemployment and low levels of inflation. If the bugs are correct, officialdom has done the number alright, and the Achilles heel in the illicit rigging game is officialdom's bleeding stocks of physical metal required to perpetuate the game. If history is a guide and the fiat game plays out in the same manner as the oil game, officialdom will sweep the gold cupboard bare – right to the last bar – before they say uncle. If this is really what is happening, by the time the game is over, the price of gold will categorically go up geometrically. Count on it.
-Goldilox
After a powerful commentary about Simmons weekend interview, Kirby compares the state of oil analysis with that on the financial front.
Flaccus
(08/08/05; 19:12:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 134748)
mas
Americans are expected to beat their breasts about that sort of thing in this politically correct world. But let me put it this way:
What if the United States did not consume 25% of the daily oil production? Where would the rest of the world be economically?
mas
(08/08/05; 19:06:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 134747)
Bush sign's massive energy bill into law
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050808/bush.html?.v=7
Out of the whole article, I like this bit the best.
"The bill recognizes that America is the world's leader in technology, and that we've got to use technology to be the world's leader in energy conservation," Bush said.
BB, you just mentioned that the last refinery built was when, 1976? Guess getting into the refinery business for heavy crude processing would be a good idea.
Isn't 25% of all the oil is consumed by the USA every day?
Black Blade
(08/08/05; 17:57:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 134746)
re: R Powell
http://p100.ezboard.com/fpeakoilpetroleumandpreciousmetalsfrm1.showMessage?topicID=6.topic
I doubt that this is "the big one". Just a realization among many that we are near "peak production", have refinery constraints, "peaked" on light sweet crude capacity, have at the very least bumped up against "production capacity", and that to keep the treadmill steady we have to pay more to produce "higher cost" oil to meet global demand amid the surge in demand from the world's new manufacturing powerhouses - "Chindia".
Also, note that many producing regions have recently "peaked" - North Sea, Mexico's Cantarell Field, and even Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Field. No new discoveries of "Super Giant" fields have been made since Cantarell in 1976. You need to find several smaller "Giants" to make up for the decline of the easy to find and produce "Super Giants". So far that has not happened as we lose 5 barrels of oil for every 3 we find (a losing proposition).
- Black Blade (Dennis Erectus)
Gotta hit the dojo for a couple of hours (link)
R Powell
(08/08/05; 17:28:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 134745)
Black Blade
Welcome back. You have been AWOL too long.
Your opinions on the approach of peak oil have been known for years. What's your opinion of this current run-up? Is this current move based on real supply/demand fundamentals OR just a majority belief that peak oil has arrived (as in speculative in nature)? Or, is it political in nature?
Rephrased: is this the big one? Real bull markets sometimes don't like to let too many people on board and I doubt that anyone has the nerve to short energy right now. If this is so, is there a down side move ahead? Just wondering as usual.....?????
rich
melda laure
(08/08/05; 17:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 134744)
Here's a corker, POG/POO ratio of unity.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Well talk about your "unredeemable" the sweet little troglodyte behind the banking counter wouldn't cash my paycheck. She said I need a "driver's license". or something like that. I tried to tell here I'm a retired sailor (wink!) and I never took up animal husbandry....
It is increasingly hard to get green stamps. It is almost silly. SNIP:
"If world demand for oil grows to say, 86 – 88 million barrels per day this winter heating season [from its current 83 - 84] without a corresponding ramp in supply, Simmons reckons the price of crude could spiral up in the magnitude of 5 or 10 times"
And that, my duckies, is at a constant dollar index value. The retro rockets are primed and ready. Which will explode first? POG? POO? Comex AG? Well, it wont matter. Orcs love explosions, and once they start, they'll use up the lot. And they wont have Goldman Sachs to call the top at 800 dollars the barrel.
R Powell
(08/08/05; 17:11:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 134743)
Relative to what..?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
I posted the MRCI night quotes link for anyone interested in watching the prices of crude, heating oil + unleaded climb. Crude is now over $64.00.
Every once in a while I see ALL the currencies down and it's then that I wonder what the relative values are relative to. They're all down now (site updates every few minutes) with gold up $0.10. I know it's just market noise but still I wonder (who'll stop the rain).
Black Blade
(08/08/05; 16:54:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 134742)
Matt Simmons - Twilight In The Desert
I have the book and am taking it slow to analize the material closely. It is very good and I see a real debate developing between Matt Simmons (Simmons and Co. Intl.) and Daniel Yergin (CERA - Cambridge Energy Research Associates). I tend to lean more toward Simmons on the "Peak oil" issue as he has researched the subject quite well. I think that Yergin is just a bit too trusting of Saudi claims despite the lack of "transparency". One thing is certain - that light sweet crude production has definitely "peaked".
Another book I have, but yet to read is "The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World" by Paul Roberts, and a re-read of "The House of Nomura" by Albert Alletzhauser for fun.
- Black Blade
Topaz
(08/08/05; 16:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134741)
Bond/Dollar
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=TYXY&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=
Icessant anti-Dollar jawboning over the last several weeks has "finally" resulted in slightly negative (soft DX-soft Yield) market action.
Not what I'd call convincing though!
Goldilox
(08/08/05; 16:34:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 134740)
Simmons interview
@ BB (aka Dennis Erectus) - there's a blast from the past!
Puplava interviewed Matt Simmons over the weekend for his final pre-sailing spot this summer.
Have you read "Twilight in the Desert" or listened to any of Simmons' talks?
I think I speak for the majority of posters in that we would highly regard your impressions of either or both.
-G
Black Blade
(08/08/05; 16:00:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 134739)
Licking Lips?
WTI Crude at $64 and NG at $8.75
The problem for Crude is that production is at capacity and light sweet crude has hit "peak oil" production. Also note that refinery capacity is extremely tight as we in the US have not built a new refinery since 1976. Most of those refineries handle light sweet crude. We have nice inventories (including the SPR) but it is all heavy and heavy sour crude. It takes more heavy oil to get the same yield of distillate and gasoline than from light sweet crude.
Competition for remaining global oil (and natgas, coal, uranium, etc.) supply is intense with China and India ("Chindia") entering the market as new industrial powerhouses. This along with emerging middle classes in the Third World demanding a piece of the good life (cars, computers, cell phones, household appliances, etc.). Just tell Chang and Raj they can't have the same comforts in life as we do in the west and see where that gets you.
Today the most cited reason for the rise in the price of oil is the closure of the US embassy and two consulates in Saudi Arabia on security threats. Add to this possible terrorism with the change in Saudi leadership (although not considered a problem for US-Saudi relations). Al Qaeda would love to drive a wedge between the two governments now as there is speculation what changes in that relationship may be down the road when the next generation of the House of Saud takes over as the old generation dies off.
NatGas is already a concern due to limited land access to Federally owned lands and limits on drilling permits. But more important this summer is a return to normal summer temperatures that have "natural gas peakers" firing up to generate electricity on increased power demand (mostly air conditioning). NatGas injections are low and Canada's storage levels have fallen fast (they contribute 15% of US winter heating demand). The housing boom has also been a concern in the industry because virtually all new housing is heated with natgas. Meanwhile siting for LNG offloading terminals has been been another problem with NIMBY and safety concerns.
On the bright side, energy investors have made good money and energy workers have been fully employed for the first time in many years. I have been quite busy with up to five drill rigs at a time and running along with a couple of other projects for clients. This is quite a change when I was out of work for over a year a couple of years back (essentially living off dividends and funds from operations from royalties). In the US we have not prepared for the inevitable oil crunch and that has been quite beneficial for those in natural resource investments. In the end it will help to crush the USD and it is imperative to have a bit of "Portfolio Insurance" in Gold and Silver.
As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurnace", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic goods.
Licking my lips? You betcha!!!
- Black Blade (aka Dennis Erectus)
TownCrier
(8/8/05; 15:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 134738)
Oil hits record on Saudi security threat
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-08T193715Z_01_L08675543_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MARKETS-OIL-DC.XML
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices hit a record high $64 Monday after warnings of militant attacks in the world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia and on worries about refinery outages in the United States.
Concerns over the Saudi security situation coincided with news that another U.S. refinery had run into output problems, adding to pressure on gasoline supplies in the world's biggest consumer during peak summer demand.
News that OPEC's second largest producer Iran had resumed its nuclear work, despite European Union warnings of possible United Nations sanctions, further strained nerves.
In real terms, stripping out inflation, oil is still below the $80 a barrel on average for the year after the 1979 Iranian revolution.
But at an average of more than $53 for the year to date for U.S. crude, prices are well above those during the 1974 Arab oil embargo.
^----(from url)----^
Two things. Although oil ITSELF hasn't changed, there are more USES for a barrel of oil today than there was back then. On the other hand, the dollar, while still the same in name, is certainly not the same in spirit as it was back then.
And by extension of these thoughts, therein can be found the rationale in choosing gold (instead of dollars) as your form of savings. Anticipate the scenario where gold comes more fully into vogue through improved usage as a MTM reserve asset in place of the intellectually and morally bankrupted post-Bretton Woods system.
R.
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(8/8/05; 14:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134737)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been
updated.
If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to
request our free
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Monday Market Excerpts
August 8 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures drifted to a softer close on Monday, hit by speculative liquidation as a strike by gold miners began as expected.
Summer volume in the market remained thin before a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Tuesday, dealers said.
At a U.S. Fed meeting on Tuesday, policymakers are seen delivering a tenth straight 25 basis-point increase in the benchmark funds rate, taking it to 3.5 percent.
Gold traders said the market also had priced such a rise.
COMEX December contracts slipped $2.50 to $440.30.
Meanwhile in South Africa, gold miners who are demanding higher wages stayed off work on Monday, bringing gold pits in the world's biggest bullion producer to a standstill.
The strike was the latest action in recent weeks in a nation plagued by huge income gaps between the rich and mostly black poor, more than a decade after apartheid's official end.
One lead negotiator representing gold producers estimated a daily loss of around 40,000 ounces and 130 million rand ($20.2 million) in lost revenue per day due to the strike.
"The strike was priced in and the fund buying from last week in gold and silver stopped -- that's why we came off on liquidation-type selling," said a desk trader in New York.
"It's range-trading now, and we'll wait to see what the dealers want to do," he added. "They might buy a little down here, but you don't know where the next big move is going to be."
---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---
Goldilox
(8/8/05; 13:51:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 134736)
Ag action
Silver is "clinging" to Seven bucks today!
TownCrier
(8/8/05; 13:50:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 134735)
Latest arrival from von Braun ---- Central Banks and 'Reserves'
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/20050808.html
(excerpts)
"If the American people ever allow banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property, until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. The issuing of money should be taken from the banks and restored to Congress and the people to whom it belongs." -- Thomas Jefferson.
What exactly are central bank reserves? Not too long ago the answer would have been gold or a combination of gold and silver. Today it's different, so we are told, and the dominant reserve held by the central banks of the world are US dollars, which are estimated to comprise 70% of CB's total reserves, the balance being some gold and other paper currencies such as the Euro, the Yen and the Swiss franc. There are also other regional based currencies that make up a small portion of these reserves.
...The US currently is dependant upon its trading partners to finance its deficits and continue to hold these units which in turn are classified by these 'partners' as 'reserves'.
Recently, China has been told by the US Congress that it can't spend its reserves as it sees fit. The anti-China stance, when it came to the proposed acquisition by China of Unocal, is only the beginnings of a movement that can only affect the US itself, since it brings into doubt the very idea of the US dollar being the world's reserve currency. This privileged position has been impaired since 1971, and has been abused on an ever increasing basis by the issuing of debt, partially enabled by a willingness of other central bankers to continue to accumulate ever more of these non redeemable instruments.
For Congress to tell a large holder of these peculiar instruments that they can not even redeem them by buying assets priced in US dollars is tantamount to saying "yes, you have the money, but, no, you cannot spend it." Now what sort of a reserve is that?
Should China be concerned about what it called 'undue political pressure?' One would think so. And would not a signal be sent to the Chinese to say 'OK, let's buy something else!' But what?
Much talk is heard about diversification by central banks but as the US has the monopoly on central bank reserves, what exactly could other central banks diversify into? They have to find somebody else to be willing to buy or exchange their dollars first and that's the tricky part when it comes to the actuality of diversification.
Are they holding reserves in the true sense of the word, or are they merely holding liabilities that are uncollectible, unenforceable and unredeemable at that? And is this not what Thomas Jefferson was referring to all those years ago, failing only to estimate the size of the potential fallout by not including other countries as well?
^-----(see url for full commentary)-----^
I think that final point made by von Braun is a particularly good one. That is, no matter WHERE you live, if you have chosen an unwise type of reserve, the 'wrong' form of savings, then you may actually be much closer to 'homeless' than your assets currently seem to say you are.
The bottom line: a house that cannot stand the test of the storm is really no house at all.
Choose your savings/reserves wisely. Choose gold.
R.
Goldilox
(8/8/05; 13:50:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 134734)
Saudi repat
@ mikal,
One might almost think they don't quite "trust" the banksters from an announcement like that.
Was it Another/FOA who reminded us that the banksters taught the oil-rich Arabs how to invest in Latin America and lose their robes?
R Powell
(8/8/05; 13:04:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 134733)
Ned
Your words here...
"Hmmmm? Peak oil being confirmed as we speak? Wonder if BB (Mr. Erectus) is licking his lips? And just at the front end of hurricane season. Should be an ugly fall."
An ugly fall indeed, if/when it does retract and markets do retract, even in the face of supportive supply/demand numbers. Although, if one believes the government numbers, domestic oil supplies are NOT scarce right now and the strategic reserves (which Bush has been filling) are due to be topped off soon! Or perhaps that "ugly fall" you refer to is a prediction for the economy as oil prices climb even higher...? How expensive before the economy seizes up? Where then does the POG go?
But, as someone on another forum asked..."Who has the gonads to short crude, heating oil or unleaded RIGHT NOW?"
This refers to paper games, of course, but such speculation is often the mover of the markets.
It's often been mentioned that no one knows for sure what might trigger such a mania in the precious metals arena (even though many causes are cited as potentials), and perhaps little will it matter after the fact. But, once triggered, it should provide quite a show. Then we'll need to decide if it is speculation or if the monetary situation has indeed fundamentally changed or maybe (probably) both. Or, perhaps gold + silver simply continue to be priced higher in a gradual manner as time goes by. I certainly don't know but don't believe they will go down substantially for a good long time. Are the Elliot Wave believers still calling for sub $300 prices? Silly chartist predictions or severe Deflation? Won't it be tough to have deflation with +$60/barrel oil prices or ...?
rich
Ned
(8/8/05; 11:40:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 134732)
Animals & Oil
Are oil traders animals? We'll save that for Another day !
Funny you mention the animal thing Goldi. I was at the good doctor's office Saturday, our conversations often drift, this visit was no different. He was explaining the weight of a human reaches it's low right now and then reaches its high in late March. Sounds right, right?
So I said to him we're opposite of bears, peaking in fall and reaching its low in March/April. Humans, the unusual mammal.
So I see oil raging again......or at least I assume that. The Toronto exchange has tacked on another 100+ pts. while the Dow has stalled. Can only mean one thing either oil is booming today or commodities in general. And I see the TSX has nosed ahead of the DOW.
Hmmmm? Peak oil being confirmed as we speak? Wonder if BB (Mr. Erectus) is licking his lips? And just at the front end of hurricane season. Should be an ugly fall.
Have a golden day.
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(8/8/05; 11:14:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 134731)
Austrian 100 Schilling gold coins
http://www.usagold.com/bulletin/board.html
Congrats to those who acted swiftly enough to secure for themselves a few of these rare beauties -- they are now sold out.
A 'Summer Special' remains for additional savings on U.S. $20 Liberties and St. Gaudens. See the Bulletin Board (URL given above) or call for details on these or any other gold coins and bullion.
mikal
(8/8/05; 10:32:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134730)
Royal treatments in Saudi Arabia
http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/08070000aaa02f00.upi&Sys=rmmiller&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20News
Saudis to retrieve $360 billion abroad- UPI - August 7, 2005
Goldilox- Don't they WISH it were a "quiet day in the gold pits".
"Janitor, get me another mop!"
Goldilox
(8/8/05; 10:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 134729)
NY gold retreats early on broker selling, eyes Fed
snip:
August 08, 2005 09:09:03 (ET)
NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures edged down before stalling on Monday morning, and traders were reluctant to pressure prices sharply due to the start of a huge strike by gold miners and thin volumes before a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Tuesday, dealers said.
Roughly 100,000 workers in South Africa began their first industry-wide strike in 18 years over the weekend, but little impact on gold prices was seen amid plenty of supply.
George Nickas, vice president of sales at FC Stone in New York, said gold prices had underlying support from the strike and also from a firm euro against the dollar, but activity was at a low ebb due to the summer doldrums.
"The ring capitalized on the quiet market and tested the downside earlier. Don't be surprised to see it test the upside later on in the day," said Nickas.
-Goldilox
$ down, gold down, HUI up, SM flat - it looks like no one has a direction firmly in hand.
Knallgold
(8/8/05; 06:00:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 134728)
$ future
...and now that CONgress officially announced that large $ piles are worthless-... (fill in your POG target/Gold to da moon rhetoric)
Sundeck
(8/8/05; 05:13:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 134727)
For whom the bell tolls...
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/content/101980/content.asp?menu=review&dia=882005
Snips:
"...
In the second week since China's announcement of its decision to abandon the yuan's peg to the dollar, the reaction in global financial markets has intensified. Those who have underestimated
the significance of this policy shift are running out of time to reassess their complacency. If holders of U.S. dollars were wondering for whom this bell tolled, the markets themselves are crying in crystal clarity "It tolls for thee."
During the week the price of gold gained about $10 per ounce, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) surging over 7% at its intra-week peak, its highest level since March. In additional, oil prices rose sharply as well, reaching a new all-time record high above $62 per barrel. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar posted its largest weekly decline this year, with the euro rising about 2%.
...
The fact that demand is increasing for non-U.S. dollar, high yielding, safe-haven investments, as well as for traditional inflation and financial hedges while simultaneously decreasing for dollar denominated securities, reveals a major flow of funds taking place.
..."
Sundeck: I'll be Earnest with you... What's Donne cannot be un-Donne...and as I see it, China's bell is ringing out the dollar's year, loud and clear. You might say that the dollar is Donne-for Papa... My guess is dollar index below 80 by end October...
:-)
Sundeck
(8/8/05; 04:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 134726)
One Nation Under Debt
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=45657
Snips:
"...
First it was Warren Buffet, then Bill Gates, then George Soros, now even our allies like the Korean central bank and, most recently, Saudi Arabia have been dumping dollar holdings in favor of other currencies. Why? Because we've become One Nation Under Debt.
....
Is the U.S. dollar really at risk of losing its status as the world's main "reserve" currency? Yes, the dollar's share of global reserves has already fallen from 80 percent in the mid-1970s to around 65 percent today.
...
Over the past 2,000 years the leading international currency has changed many times, from the Roman denarius to the Dutch guilder and then to the British sterling.
In 1913, at the height of its empire, Britain was the world's biggest creditor. Within 40 years, after two costly world wars and economic mismanagement, it became a net debtor and the dollar usurped the sterling's role.
The dollar has been the dominant reserve currency for more than 60 years, delivering big economic benefits to Americans, which can pay for imports and borrow at low interest costs. But never before in history has the guardian of the world's main "reserve" currency also been the world's biggest net debtor. If America continues on its current path, the dollar is likely to suffer a fate similar to the sterling.
Here are a few tips on how you can prepare for a dollar meltdown:
Reduce debt, live within your means.
Increase income, develop your talents.
Diversify some assets out of U.S. dollars.
Vote to cut government tax-and-spend policies.
Pray that God's providential judgment upon America will teach our nation the benefits of righteous living before we face more social-economic consequences.
..."
Sundeck: Dang it all...this guy has been readin' Black Blade! (Where is Black Blade?) Mmmmm...I like that last one... Can you please include Australia in your prayers? (We have similar sinful ways with credit cards and home equity.) What's the betting that gold will top $470 by end of October?
Sundeck
(8/8/05; 04:12:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 134725)
Diggers and Dealers 2005
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16183274%255E643,00.html
Snip:
"...
The 1300 or so tickets to the three-day shindig sold out months ago. Accommodation in the Goldfields capital is tight.
The forum is popular not only for what happens on the stage and in the sponsor's marquee, but because of where it is held.
On the edge of the western desert 600km east of Perth, Kalgoorlie-Boulder has a reputation as a hard-drinking town famous for gold and scantily clad waitresses called skimpies pouring beer in most of 32 pubs.
..."
Sundeck: Held every year in August... For those of you who are not atttending (like me), the program can be found here:
http://www.diggersndealers.com.au/
:-)
Sundeck
(8/8/05; 03:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 134724)
'China to fuel gold to $725'
http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=98692
Snip:
"...
Chinese retail sales of gold jewellery rose more than 11 per cent to 224 tons in 2004, according to GFMS. Sales may increase to as much as 600 tons within five years, according to Merrill Lynch's Birch, leading China to surpass India as the biggest consumer. Indian demand for gold jewellery totaled 517.5 tons last year, GFMS figures show.
..."
Sundeck: No argument there...
Topaz
(8/8/05; 02:03:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 134723)
@ned.
I'm aware we've been over all this before ...once or twice eh? ...but it might bear repeating as you have obviously been taken with Mr Prector's tome.
My 02: - FWIW and hope it helps.
Yin-Yang ...Inflation-Disinflation ...Deflation-Hyperinflation.
Stage 1 ...A clear and prolonged loss of faith in the markets ability to determine/engineer "future" expectations. (Def)
Stage 2 ...A clear loss of Faith in the Fiat Numeraire as a tangible/viable transaction medium (Hyp)
WE will decide our fate and level of Faith ...THEY are doing all they are physically/technically able to do to forestall OUR decision ...and they're going to "extreme" lengths!
I haven't read Mr Prector's work as yet Ned, but by the sound of it, imo he's on the Money.
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