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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/8/2005 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Goldilox (12/8/05; 23:59:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 138997) Epsilon Effect http:www.jmccanneyscience.com @ Rook,McCanney had plenty to say about Epsilon on his weekly broadcast tonight.Of course, in his Principia Meteorologia, he asks: "If hurricanes form in 'warm water', how is it that said water loses no heat energy and often immediately spawns another hurricane in the same region, and yet the first hurricane packed enough energy to power NY for a year". and "How do hurricanes stronger than ours form on Mars, with virually no liquid water and less than 10% of our atmosphere."Yes, we have much to learn about storm formation! From whence came that energy?But I am not surprised. As a physical science major in University, I always wondered that Nurses took "bonehead" Chemistry and Meteorologists took "bonehead" Physics, as we called them.Unfortunately, whether or not we truly understand the mechamism, changes are coming about, and they will most likely affect agriculture, energy, and shipping in big ways.I have also been tracking EQ activity, which seems to be increasing in a lot of mining regions, another hit to supply concerns. Goldilox (12/8/05; 23:35:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 138996) Sarbanes-Oxley @ mikal,My team is hosting a Sarbanes-Oxley seminar in February. Since the World Series, most are calling it SOX now, replacing SarbOx.I told the moderator he should open the conference with a slide that says,2006 the year of SOX, not[next slide] Red Sox, or[next slide] White SoxHe wouldn't even let me get to the Black Sox analogy, as it was too far below the belt.Lawyers spoil all the fun. Goldilox (12/8/05; 23:24:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 138995) Hyperinflafla @ White Hills,No - Bennie the Blade wants "controlled" hyperinflation.whoopwhoopwhoopwhoopwhoopwhoop! TownCrier (12/8/05; 23:21:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 138994) Gold is sparkling as never before http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,16781,1663233,00.html December 9, 2005; The Guardian -- ...So rapid has gold's rise been that at the Bank of England Museum in Bartholomew Lane, near the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, staff had yet to update the wooden counter recording the value of their prize exhibit: a 13kg (28lb) London Good Delivery bar, containing 99.5% pure gold, the worldwide benchmark for quality.It's not only bullion traders who are excited by gold's performance. From Marc Jacobs' gold-chain bag - the "must-have" fashion item this Christmas - to Selfridges' gold wallpaper-themed store windows courtesy of Cole & Son and soul singer Joss Stone modelling jewellery from the Italian designer Dino Modolo's new range at September's Fashion Rock's awards, gold is pretty much everywhere....it is music to the ears of the attendant at the Bank of England museum. Leading a tour group to the 13kg ingot on Wednesday morning, she announced: "This bar cost us £100,000 when we brought it 17 years ago. I think at one point the value sank to £68,000, but that was some time ago now."She points out a display recording the ingot's value as £117,324. By yesterday, however, once the counter had been adjusted for the most recent London fix, it read £118,263 - a healthy overnight profit for the museum.Some gold facts to amaze your friends...-- If you gathered together all the gold ever mined it would weight approximately 153,000 tonnes. The same volume, in steel, can be turned out by the US in a single day.-- Because gold is so dense, those 153,000 tonnes could be contained in a cube with 20-metre (65ft) sides. The Italian artist Giancarlo Neri is planning to create a full-size model of such a cube, entitled All is Gold, with a view to installing it somewhere in the City. Right is the maquette he created.-- Gold is extremely malleable. You could draw an ounce of gold into a wire 50 metres in length, while a tonne of gold could be stretched to the moon and back.^---(from url)---^Or, for those keeping score, all of the gold ever mined could be stretched to the moon and back 153,000 times. That's a lot of utility from a mere 20m cube.It truly boggles the mind.R. Goldilox (12/8/05; 23:21:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 138993) Larry the Lounge-lizard They had to take Larry off the morning show, because Mark kept rolling his eyes whenever Larry opened his mouth, and could NOT restrain himself when Larry swallowed his own foot.Not sure why they dumped "Kudlow and Cramer", but I'm sure it had something to do with mixing "water and oil".Now they both have a show, Cramer as "Carnival Barker Extrordinaire", in the Dick Vitale style, "Totally, Baby". Pass the crack pipe, man, and don't Bogart! He even controls his own foley rack! zonk, pow, whoopawhoopa!Larry is more the "Mr. Roger's" style. "Now children, let's all say HI to Mr Treasury, and thank him for all that money he prints."All this followed by "the Donald" and Donnie Deutch. I've seen better lineups on Dragnet reruns! White Hills (12/8/05; 22:44:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 138992) contrarian Hyperinflation? The PTB will not permit that. One Historic Monday morning---. White Hills Rook (12/8/05; 22:26:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 138991) Epsilon effect http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/33773/story.htm The weather folks are doing quite a spin job on the hurricane that is?was in the mid atlantic last week. They said it was "tenatious" and "guess we have more to learn about hurricanes" because they were claiming it was over cold water.Well, hurricanes cannot be tenatious, and truth be told, the water is not cold where the hurricane is. It SHOULD be cold, but it aint. Fresh water melt off the north is causing the gulfstream to not only slow, but causing some percentage of it to stop its normal sinking, thereby slowing the gulfstream, blocking off some percentage of its normal downward courses, and causing the warm water to bunch up in the mid atlantic. That alone is plenty enough reason to buy gold. mdgc (12/8/05; 21:40:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 138990) Canadian gold stocks The lagging S&P Toronto gold index is finally confirming the break out in XAU and HUI indices and gold zipping through $500. The strong Canadian dollar slowed the rise of the index. Recently XAU and HUI broke though double tops in December 2003 and December 2004. Canadian gold stocks have had an earlier top in mid 2002. The Canadian dollar dropped to the 60's at that time, compared with 86 cents today.Compare these three five year charts of the TSX Gold, XAU and HUI http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESPTTGD&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EXAU&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHUI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= David Linkley (12/8/05; 21:08:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 138989) The light shines through Unbacked fiat is no match for gold as the Comex paper pushers are being smoked. At some point expect an attempt at a counterpunch but how much will it matter? Our Congress merrily assures a higher deficit going forward with goodies for everyone. Lets see our great leadership in action: No efforts to move away from fossil fuels No effort to bring the budget under control No effort to address the trade deficit No efforts to address illegal immigration No efforts to address the pension crisesI could go on and on but you get the point, buy gold now while you can still pay dollars for it. We may reach a point where it's not available at any price. Sundeck (12/8/05; 20:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 138988) Carnival Barkers I seldom listen to or watch the financial/investment extravaganzas that pervade radio and TV media...the reason is that I believe they are nearly always very shallow in substance; with the emphasis on "feel-good glitz".Partly for this reason, and partly because I live in Australia, I was unfamiliar with Mr Kudlow's style and substance...my knowledge being resticted to the occasional comments by participants in this forum.However, I recently spent a week in Los Angeles and while travelling in a taxi one day I had the pleasure of listening to a somewhat strident investment commentary on the radio station which the cab-driver was tuned into. The commentator was pushing a particular stock; rather hard I thought, and for reasons that struck me as rather simplistic. Since I know a little bit about trading stocks, I was interested in who the self-proclaimed wizzard on the radio was. The cab-driver informed me it was: "Mr Kudlow...he's quite famous!"I now have a better basis for understanding Black Blade's term "carnival barker", and the sentiment with which Mr Kudlow seems to be regarded hereabouts...;-) Black Blade (12/8/05; 20:38:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 138987) @Omegaman I see your point. I certainly would not want to sully the reputations of pimps and prostitutes. Not fair to suggest guilt by association ya know. That said, one of my favorite movies is "Doctor Detroit". ;)- Black Blade Galearis (12/8/05; 20:30:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 138986) @ Flatliner, all re delivery problems http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=428 A pretty good article on delivery by Bud Conrad, and he covered most of the points of interest. However, I do not know how he could say that the spec longs were mainly taking delivery. I would put my money on most of this being the commercials taking ownership. It's been a strange day all round. I did not even check the deliveries today and my brother sends me the following info: Meanwhile over on COMEX, 296 silver contracts were delivered (1.5 Moz) today to bring the total delivered this month to 33 Moz. Gold had 284 contracts stand for delivery (28,400 oz) to bring December's total to 1,781,200 oz. COMEX has about 3 Moz in the registered category in its stockpile. It might be interesting to see if the gold Open Interest for December is still rising. That means that over half of all the registered metal for both gold and silver stockpiles have been called for delivery. That seems like a lot to me.Rhody*****And I should correct Rich while I'm on about my brother, but it was a piece of the Rhody insert that he quoted, not moi.Note however, that Rhody only speaks to the current delivery month. But the same buyers were involved this month as for the past 4. And we still do not know who these entities were buying for,,,,if not for themselves.But I think we should all be on the lookout for defaulters.Best regards,G. Sundeck (12/8/05; 20:20:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 138985) Dow and CPI...Gold Injections @ Rich Powell #138932 Dow and CPII remember reading a study a few years ago (and posting comments here) from which it was apparent to me that, once CPI was taken into account, the Dow index was pretty near flat over several decades...sometimes ahead of the CPI and sometimes trailing the CPI. The composite index (including dividends) was up. That is, "real" profits were restricted to takings in dividends alone.However, as has been pointed out often enough, the CPI is only one indication of inflation. the term "inflation" is used willy-nilly by all and sundry as if it actually means something specific, concrete and of unique form. It does not. "Inflation" is rather like "weather"...sunny and calm over here, but category-5 typhoon over there. It is meaningful insofar as we all know it exists, but in reality its focus and its importance varies substantially from person to person. For example, suppose one is into computers and nothing else...then the price of a "standard" computer has been plummeting for decades and will continue to plummet...whoopeee, sunny days forever...negative inflation and the purchasing power and "value" of one's dollars appears to be forever increasing.However, suppose one is less-techno-gratified and just wants to live in a normal house. Different story!! Standard house prices have increased probably more than 50 times since 1970. Therefore, THIS humble person's dollar has been going down like a lead baloon.Take the Dow...it has increased about 14 times since 1970 (similar to gold), probably about the same as the CPI, but way less than housing. @Clink! #138950 Gold and RAGold injections have been used to treat RA for at least 25 years. I had a good friend who suffered from RA who used to have regular gold injections. Did it do any good? Impossible to be sure, but hopefully the treatment has been tested using controls with some measure of success.Cheers omegaman (12/8/05; 20:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 138984) BlackBlade and reference "Pimp and Prostitute" Hi BlackBlade, I like your comments about CNBC carnival barkers and Lawrence Kudlow. But please, could you stop insulting pimps and prostitutes as they at least provide SOME KIND of service. I mean, really. Real-istically speaking, Omegaman Black Blade (12/8/05; 19:27:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 138983) Waiting On "Spot" http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp OK, to avoid confusion, I am referring to the Feb. contract. "Spot" is still watching the bar before he jumps. Somebody please toss "Spot" a Milk Bone. ;)- Black Blade Druid (12/8/05; 19:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 138982) Kuhl http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html Druid: Check out the prices at the link. Gold @ $526, Silver over $9. Black Blade (12/8/05; 19:20:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 138981) Gold Breaks Above $525 As soon as I heard Larry Kudlow and his anti-gold Carnival Barkers on CNBC say that the POG has topped out, I just had to wait and see how much higher the POG would go in after hours. As expected, Gold is up by another $4. The tremble in his voice and the need for 2 anti-gold prostitutes to help him argue against the lone Goldbug on his show was a definite sign of desperation. I expect to see the full court press against precious metals and energy the rest of this week in the financial media. If that does not work then next week should be rather amusing as they will pull out all the stops and every available anti-gold pimp and prostitute will be beating the drums. ;)- Black Blade Goldilox (12/8/05; 19:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 138980) Inflafla If the dollar loses, say, 50% of its purchasing power, and the SM rises, say, 75%, then the owner of those stocks has essentially lost 12.5% of his equity.We can expect the pundits to remind us more often of the 75% gain than the actual 12.5% loss, as it is their job to continue selling stocks.One of the difficult things about moving-target inflation is figuring our if any asset's value gain actually exceeds the ongoing inflation. Especially so when the published inflation numbers are so skewed by "hedonics" that they hardly make any sense anyway.I don't know if was purposeful, but the inventors of the term "stagflation" wanted to describe an environment of inflation mixed with deflation. Others have called it general inflation coupled with asset deflation, or whatever. We will certainly see both orchestrations and reactions that fit this scenario.One thing that appears likely to me. The 1978-1980 inflationary run will not be exactly repreated, as the manipulators, good and bad, have waited their whole career to attack that scenario. More likely, the band-aids they apply will create some new side-effects that no one expects, and we'll hear even more "this time it's different" explanations. In less manipulative markets, gold would be one of the best inflation markers. As most of us believe, the manipulation of POG makes even that a difficult task. We watch it try to decouple from the "bugger thy neighbor's currency" shenanigans, only to see the manipulators reassert moments of control.Exciting times, indeed. Flatliner (12/8/05; 18:20:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 138979) @hit me. ;) TownCrier, I do appreciate your balanced approach to valuing stocks. Having actively participated in the markets through the 90's, I seriously question whether others actually investigate to determine the value of a company (or any stock). I have come to the belief that people just jump into a rising commodity without thinking. Heck, if the price is going up and keeps going up, why not get in on the action? If people were like you, they would have applied reason left the market long ago. We would not have high P/E ratios and, savings would be as good as gold. Thanks for the ‘plausible’ comment. I feel like I'm starting to get the hang of interpreting your words. I take ‘plausible’ to mean ‘it will not happen like this, thank you for playing." Druid (12/8/05; 18:17:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 138978) @Rich "Well said but I still opine that, although possible, the Comex will not default. Remember the Comex is just the exchange. If there are defaults, it would be the naked sellers, not the exchange. But I believe that much higher prices will rebalance the buying and selling pressure, without any defaults. But hey, if the "silver of last resort" is desparately needed, so that even say $20/ounce silver could not intice the longs to sell, then ?? Also, short covering will now be on our side. So much to watch, so much fun. Maybe this is when the market awakens!rich"Druid: Do you not think that the exchange will, once again as happened with the Hunts, change the rules to protect the naked shorts? contrarian (12/8/05; 18:08:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 138977) flatlining stocks Yes, that is a corrolary argument. That markets really are NOT efficient as they are claimed to be, and are rather psychological markers as to the imputed value of an entity. They are built on expectations of earnings, not the actual earnings themselves. The old buy the rumor, sell the news adage still works to this day.So a simple arithmetic interpolation of dollar inflation to the stock market may not hold water. Dow 10,000 worked because the psychology of belief held up during that time period--there was a wholesale belief that we were in a "new" era.But if economic conditions deteriorate catastrophically and inflation takes hold in an awful way, how can that make people feel optimistic about the future earnings of stocks so as to boost their values? I think it would actually have the opposite effect and collapse the stock market.Interesting discussion nevertheless. TownCrier (12/8/05; 17:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 138976) Flatliner, on flatlining stocks At first blush your rationale seems plausible... a person might be inclined to think that a weaker dollar would result in higher prices for everything, stocks included.However, that may or equally may not be the case for any given stock.When you buy stocks, the price you pay is reflective of more than just a simple share of the company's tangible brick and mortar. As is often the case, the aggregate share value is considerably higher than can be accounted for by the company's tangibles -- a goodly amount of the price is reflective of the company's specific business model and the profitabilty projections for the future. In other words, depending on the company, a large fraction of the share price reflects the judgement of value that investors put on the company's operating plan and everything that factors into its net cashflow and future expectations.Recall that companies not only sell a final product or service, but that they also have cost of imputs to contend with. If the dollar devalues, and a company is heavily dependent upon imported raw materials or energy, investor expectations of profitablity may be seriously discounted in the share price, despite the fact that the brick and mortar portion may merit a higher pricetag.There's more, but that's all I have time to say. Hope it helps you think further along a more balanced overall view.R. contrarian (12/8/05; 17:46:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 138975) Ay, Hyperinflation Well if hyperinflation enters the picture such as Germany between the wars, well, I would say all bets are off.But then, wouldn't most companies split their stocks before they reach such exorbitant heights so as to cause a Dow 30,000? I mean are we talking about Dow component stocks literally being three times the price per stock they are now?Wouldn't the banksters and government try to maintain a veneer of normalcy, as they are doing now with manipulation of statistics, CPI, employment figures, GDP, etc. And wouldn't stocks at three times current price be too much of a red flag (which would lead them to split the shares), i.e., Google at $1200 per share.It would be interesting to find out what happened to the German stock market prices during that time period of hyperinflation. Did they go up to crazy amounts such as a billion marks, etc? I remember reading a nugget quoting a German man from that era as saying he just had cashed in his retirement fund, and with the proceeds, he bought a loaf of bread. True story! Flatliner (12/8/05; 17:33:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 138974) @Dow 30,000? And revolutionary technology (printing press) I'm still having a hard time *not* seeing dow > 30,000+, gold > 30,000+ and houses > 100's of % higher then today's prices. Why? Because of the bankers. I mean, if I were a bank, I would rather inflate the money supply to keep my customers servicing their loans then to not inflate (the money supply) and see them default. It gets messy when the customers default. Nope, if times got tuff, I'd give away money, to make myself look like the hero (to my customers) and keep them paying the bills. All the while, I would buy gold with my profits. At the same time, if you take the value of the dollar and compare it against the value of the entire stock market (not the price of each) you will see that they trade at a particular price today. Now, if the value of the dollar falls, say, 50%, it will take twice as many dollars to buy the same combined value of the stock market. Thus, dollar falls 50% and the stock market price doubles.Ok hit me! But before you do, have a little mercy. I'm frail and innocent and, for what it's worth, don't really like bankers. contrarian (12/8/05; 16:51:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 138973) Galearis--Dow 30,000? I've heard this contention about a highly inflated stock market before, and after some thought, I would say highly likely due to demographic changes happening soon, and coming of retirement age (and therefore stock selling) of baby boom bulge in the population.Part of the reason of the run up in stocks between 82 and 2000, of course, was the entry into investing age of the baby boomers, and their wholesale embrace of stocks. This is explained as one of the reasons in Robert Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance."Also, any major run up, or new era in the stock market requires some sort of revolutionary technology to drive things forward with momentum, such as railroads in the mid 1800's, electricity around the turn of the nineteenth century, cars and mass production in the twenties, and internet in the 90s. Lacking that, there's not much to move things up in a big way.So I would say again there's nothing new under the sun in the stock market, and the long term secular bear market is still in force. Galearis (12/8/05; 16:00:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 138972) @all re gold and silver deliveries Rich, Flatliner, YGM, contrarian Just got back from Christmas tree chopping and found that Santa came early to the gold (and silver) market!Nice run up for a (gold) market that is supposedly over-bought right now! The T.A. crowd must be mystified,,,,but REALLY, this panic has been growing since last December when we first started watching that data page that listed deliveries on the COMEX. Even then the deliveries jumped doubling and tripling…That is when Rhody and I started to watch closely. It was only initially 8 or nine million ounces involved,,,,and the registered stocks were at first, at the 50 M.oz level, then topped off by new supplies….But the new supplies just kept up with deliveries. It was obvious that the management was bringing metal in to satisfy new delivery pressure and to keep the stockpile seemingly health. Actually these new supplies brought in meant that there was not silver available at the time – at THAT PRICE, at a low enough price to satisfy this new delivery demand. We saw the registered stocks go up,,,,but so did the deliveries over the same one year period. To date,,,and I repeat,,,,virtually all the metal in the registered stockpile has changed ownership since September. There were even silver deliveries in non-delivery month November totalling over two million ounces. It has now virtually all changed hands with 1476 O.I. remaining for the December delivery month. That represents 7,380,000 ounces pending,,,,and lots of room for default. The phones will be ringing furiously at those who are still standing for delivery. It stands to reason that some of this crowd will be after real metal, not cash, or are not prepared to roll into a future month. I suspect that some of these folks might have noticed a lot of deliveries going on too,,,and, well, that's sorta why they call it a run, isn't it ,...?Maybe Ted Butler is right and it is about copper. It may be that a lot of these players are actually worried about corporate COMEX running into a real default mess over the next few months. This could be over a short metal commodity problem, an anxiety that is spilling over into gold and silver. Sure. But Ted Butler does not recognize any monetary demand for gold or silver. It is definitely not his worldview. He is a "by definition (they aren't by law) kind of a fellow", a commodities market guy, and would not appreciate that perhaps the monetary problems out there are forcing people to hedge back to a by-gone era….Just like we of this forum believe. During this period Ted Butler mentioned a possible default risk and questioned from time to time the obvious trouble the management was having scrounging up the silver to fulfil obligations. That was the first tickle of wind before the storm in our opinion and we have been watching this build ever since. That is why I said earlier that December would really be interesting!Flatliner: Historical data has been a problem. We have been watching deliveries for a year and an argument could be made that this is a tempest in a tea pot,,,and that this delivery stuff goes on from time to time. There really isn't the data because the entities really taking deliveries are not necessarily first parties.,,, But we do know the averages and these are a clean-out-the-cupboard extensive. And we find the context of other events outside of the COMEX,,,,rather telling.Plus nobody watches this delivery stuff.I'll check out Casey's graph. Thanks!The mindset is that only physical withdrawals count. But first the stocks have to turn over in ownership, yes? We have what I would call ignition,,,,the first stage of the run has been exercised. What the new owners,,,,be they specs or commercials,,,, do with the stuff will be the test. If the specs are heavily involved, then management will likely move to impede their removing metal from the vaults. If the commercials are involved,,,,they would want to leave the metal there,,,,in their safer hands,,,,to either sell off in deliveries at a low price,,, (implies naked shorting is dead) or address their physical shorts – lease obligations perhaps…Either way the management will likely not like to see this metal move out of the vaults lest it precipitate a melt up in price that is infinitely worse than what we have at hand. We will have to wait and see what happens to this remaining stockpile of silver. Gee maybe Barclays is going to get its ETF and these folks know it…and are positioned in advance. It's we wait and see time. This thing will take months to unfold IMO.Contrarian: If you read FOA you will find his views on what will transpire in the equities side of financialand to be quite interesting through this period. He predicted the great sideways motion of the DOW etc as the PPT moved in to provide a liquidity base for what should have been much more volatility and downward movement of the equity markets. Now we see the DOW go up, and to me that just indicates manipulation and inflation. The USD is poised to (in all probability) descend once more once the Homeland Financial Act runs out at the end of the month….The flurry of deliveries of silver (and gold too) may be in anticipation of a rather precipitous decline in the dollar. We may see the DOW etc continue to rise all through the fall of the dollar,,,,and, of course inflation will continue at a higher rate,,,,BUT the equities will pay off in shrinking currency. This is what ANOTHER referred to when he said some of the miner share enthusiasts would be in a long line trying to sell their shares. The "profits? will not keep up with this erosion. The extreme of this might even be reached as the DOW meets parity with the DOW at 30,000. Gold at $30,000 and the DOW at 30,000. Which would you like to be in at the time?The point of collapse was perhaps a bit of an overstatement,,,and I should have said that we live at a very interesting point of time historically for these markets.YGM: $510 gold was key. Buy stops kicked in and off gold went. Gold had to go 2% over $500 to trigger them. Safe buys at that. I rather think they were right – in a kind of self-fulfilling way.Rich: I just got back on to find your post response to the discussion. Good words! And I do understand the default definition; my pardon for typing thoughts too quickly for accurate statements. But the CFTC IS not unbiased in the silver and gold markets. They actually deplore a rise in prices and have been caught out with stating this attitude. I have no doubt that the CFTC is in bed with the COMEX management. In fact they go back and forth from one to the other in management positions. One such was heard to give the unbiased view to a question (a timely one for this particular discussion):"What would happen if people started to take delivery?" Oh, you wouldn't want that to happen!" "The price would rise!" he said.We have David Morgan to thank for that little piece. No, they are all playing in the same sand box when it comes to rigging. Oh, yes!Hope I covered everything. Things are starting in earnest now and the world will never be the same! Last chance for cheap gold and silver! Gotta run!Best regards,G. mikal (12/8/05; 15:59:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 138971) Distortions, imbalances lead to corrections, gold http://www.cfo.com/blogs/index.cfm/l_detail/5278520?f=home_todayinfinance Pithy observation on accounting fraud hints at the consequences of now widespread abuse and fraud. In fragile and interdependent economies, local and transnational business and financial decisions alike depend on basic assumptions and decorum.Lack of oversight and accountability leading to fraud distort official and corporate outputs in as many ways as you can structure an exotic derivative or phrase pablum on the podium. The resulting imbalances and myriad consequences are why so many return to standards such as gold.CFO Blog - Ron's Rant - REGULATORY ISSUESNot Just Accounting - Ronald Fink - 12/07/05 - Snippit:"The New Yorker this week weighs in on Sarbox (though in its grammatically hair-splitting fashion chooses to spell it "SarbOx") and reminds those who think the cost of compliance outweighs the benefits of an interesting point: Competitors of a fraudulent company may suffer from inflated results no less than its shareholders and other stakeholders.In fact, the article cites new research that finds WorldCom's fraud was at least partly responsible for overinvestment in capacity by other telecom companies. That still dogs the industry and the economy four years after WorldCom failed because it chose to violate U.S. GAAP and capitalize expenses." Pan (12/8/05; 15:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 138970) Thailand is said to have importetd 1617 Tonnes of Gold in Oktober 2005! http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2005/12/09/business/index.php?news=business_19375657.html "The Nation" - ThailandTighter gold import controls plannedPublished on December 09, 2005"The ministry will meet with gold traders to establish an acceptable import volume for the rest of the year." "The ministry reported that the value of gold imports had shot up to 1,617 tonnes in October from just 6.5 tonnes in September." "A ministry source said imports had jumped this year due to speculation. Consequently, it has to establish measures to control the situation as soon as possible." ***********************************************************If this "The Nation" press article is genuine, then we will have soon a lot more fun, as we now can think about.1617 tonnes of Gold imports in one month time! Where are they comming from? Can it be true? R Powell (12/8/05; 15:35:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 138969) Galearis.... Thanks for the info + opinions. As to exactly why the silver price is moving up, we both agree that it is being driven by physical demand. However, I'm always cautious since physical demand price moves may look oh so much like speculative price moves. Many big speculative funds and smaller speculative monies simply invest with the current trend, which now is up, praise be. So, even with physical demand the market will also move with speculative investments, often from fund managers who know absolutely nothing of fundamentals. I've often mentioned that these technical traders freely admit that they are ignorant of fundamentals and some opine that any such infomation is dangerous to them as it might bias their chart readings! This similarity between speculative moves and demand driven market moves is one reason why copper has interested me recently. I'm looking for indications that might differentiate between speculative and real demand driven markets although demand (shown as price movement up) will always atract speculation. Existing copper supply numbers are available and have been severely drawn down. So I guess Ted Butler, you and I all agree there. Also, copper production numbers have not increased anywhere near enough to cover the increased demand. End result = price rationing!Interesting also is that COT reports have NOT shown any lopsided positions in copper in any category, at least not while the price was rising from 135 or so to about 200. No speculative mania?? A quick observation on our market theories concerning manipulation or no: If market selling is limited by existing supply (no naked shorts), then it follows that there can be no selling after a certain (small in silver!) amount has been sold. No selling means no buying as the contracts short always equal the contracts long...and vice-versa, of course. How does a market react when there can be no buying and no naked selling after that small limit is reached? It means liquidation only...only offset selling and no buying without offset selling. Without buying there is absolutely no upward price pressure..and with only offset selling allowed, there IS downward price pressure. No liquidity...no free market...perhaps no market at all? The CFTC is not interested in such but simply oversees normal trading...hopefully having to do nothing to interfer with free capitalism. I guess I advocate keeping government out of free enterprise. AS to the volume of silver contracts (amounts of metal) trading, I thank you for watching. Open interest varies, usually falling with price as speculative money bails out. The specs are more often long than short! Hedgers are more often short than long, as they are hedging the price they pay for physical bought. Any decrease in open interest can be caused by a variety of reasons. Again, I'll mention Kaplan as someone who opined that the last big run-up was speculative. How did he know? Lucky guess from a silver bear or market insight? He never explained the whyfor of his opinion. I hope I'm among that small group you mentioned who have opined about Comex physical offtake. Years ago I speculated that the small available Comex stores (about 50 million in the registered category?), might be called "the silver of last resort". Most physical silver use does not pass through Comex but perhaps those who need it have now come knocking at the door. If so, and they want physical as your study indicates, then we're about to see some real fireworks. I'm ready!!!(outrageous, somewhat evil grin here). Your words here, worthy of repeating.. "For the first time in twenty years, thismarket is beginning to respond like a physical market. Gold and silverare both in deficits of supply, so you know what that will do to the price.Even the paper price. Now that there is a raid on COMEX stockpiles, itremains to be seen if we will get a default. From here, it looks like thesilver market is at risk of default." Well said but I still opine that, although possible, the Comex will not default. Remember the Comex is just the exchange. If there are defaults, it would be the naked sellers, not the exchange. But I believe that much higher prices will rebalance the buying and selling pressure, without any defaults. But hey, if the "silver of last resort" is desparately needed, so that even say $20/ounce silver could not intice the longs to sell, then ?? Also, short covering will now be on our side. So much to watch, so much fun. Maybe this is when the market awakens! rich Goldilox (12/8/05; 14:52:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 138968) Hanukkah Gelt When my Marketing VP bought gold-wrapped chocolate coins for our trade show spif, he told me the story behind Hanukkah Gelt, while I personally worked on reducing his supply glut. I forwarded that picture to him just now!The STRTRKs picture reminds me of the old vitamin jingle:"2 billion strong . . . and grow-ow-ing" Flatliner (12/8/05; 14:31:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 138967) Banking has it's purpose (From the Hall of Fame) http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html#anchor914619 Here is a very small snippet from over 10k words from Aristotle in feb of 2000.Start snippet:*** What then is the role for Gold? Gold qualifies as MORE TRUE than money. Among the many national currencies, only Gold in physical form fills the three standard monetary criteria (store of value; medium of exchange; and unit of account) without *WITHOUT* the associated risk of default. Gold, therefore, remains the ultimate, sovereign king of them all and subject to none... as long as it isn't attached in any official capacity to the fate or fortune of any one of them. Therefore, the monetary system architecture must be such that Governments find no temptation -- that they are unable to derive any benefit to their own situation through any efforts to "keep a lid" on Gold.[… after thousands of words…]Although I've seemingly cut Gold out of the monetary system, that is not the case at all. Gold qualifies as the only true money; being able to function as a unit of account, as a medium of exchange, and as a store of value. A fiat currency only meets the first two elements, but they fail as a store of value. Therefore, Gold will be be the money of savings, while national currencies will be the currency of commerce. They will all float relative to each other, and constantly seek out their proper value. Kept with special status as an independent and unlendable currency, Gold will be the ever-rising North Star of the monetary system. Central banks would be inclined to hold only Gold in reserves of any significant size--because Gold is not the liability of any other nation, and its real-world value would continue to grow over time. As said before, quantities held in other national currencies would be done only to the extent that they facilitate trade between active partners. Individuals across the Earth would also choose to hold Gold as their savings; their life's productivity forever protected from inflation and deflation, and from reliance upon another person's (or nation's) liability.:End snippet.Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that Aristotle argues 1) for the existence of a banking system, 2) that savings should be held in gold, and 3) when governments manipulate the price of gold in order to set it in their favor, prices rise to the point where the fiat money becomes worthless.Have I simplified too much?If this is the case, any future banking system will have to differentiate between savings and other banking services. I would take this to mean what's saved is not lent out.My advice to anyone new to this forum is to read the postings behind the Gold Trail, Thoughts and Hall of Fame links. These articles will give the fearful inflationist hope. Goldilox (12/8/05; 14:29:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 138966) Santa's Gold @YGM64 bars/pallet X 6 tall X 9 deep X 3 rows, minus a few racks not completely full.Whew!I count nearly 10,000 bars in that picture!Go Santa, you get them bad boys delivered!Cookies and milk are waiting! USAGOLD Daily Market Report (12/8/05; 14:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 138965) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.THURSDAY Market ExcerptsGold reaches for quarter-century markDecember 8 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed near $524 an ounce Thursday to trade at their highest level since 1981, chalking up a sixth consecutive session of gains on the heels of strong physical demand and concerns about inflation.Gold for February delivery traded as high as $523.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at $522.70, up $4.90."Momentum is definitely accelerating as February gold has now tacked on $60 in just a little over a month's time," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities."All the markets need now is some extraordinary event to occur, like a stock market meltdown or a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, and we could see a quick $50-$100 pop(up) in the price of gold," he said."The fact is, the technicals, fundamentals, and market sentiment are all aligned right now and that is what provides real 'legs' to markets.""From a long-term perspective, I don't think it's too late to enter the game for those who are still on the sidelines," said Doelling.---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)--- Goldilox (12/8/05; 14:22:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 138964) Globe says Newmont, rivals see yellow turning green http://new.stockwatch.com/swnet/newsit/newsit_newsit.aspx?bid=B-507036-C:NMC&symbol=NMC&news_region=C snip:The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Dec. 8, edition that employees at precious-metals dealer X were scrambling Wednesday. The Globe's Wendy Stueck writes that X workers were fielding hundreds of calls on one of the busiest days in the firm's history. Customers clamoured to buy everything from bars of gold to certificates for precious metal stored at an Australian mint. J, X's investment products manager, said Wednesday's near 25-year high for gold -- after its recent breakthrough to the psychologically important $500 (U.S.) an ounce mark -- shows the public is waking up to gold's allure. Gold is back. Firms such as X are on the front lines of a global trend that some say could see gold emerge as a "fourth global currency" that could challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and the euro on the world financial stage. Analysts say a supply-demand crunch is driving gold prices. Analysts say a ballooning United States government deficit is lessening confidence in the American dollar. Mined-gold production has fallen by an average 2 per cent a year between 2001 and 2004, Newmont Mining said Wednesday.-GoldiloxSounds more like the smart ones were turning green to gold! Names were changed to honor the sponsor! YGM (12/8/05; 14:18:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 138963) Santas Gold (Picture) WOW!!! http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/images/DSC_0061_800.jpg This for the good girls and boys who wrote Santa. Coal for the rest of you. Joepmbull (12/8/05; 14:14:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 138962) Gold compounds Alloys are not compounds, they are mixtures.There are many compounds of gold, for example, auric chlorideThere are also many compounds of gold containing carbon. One type is called "gold alkyls" and they have the formula R2AuX where R is an alkyl group made up of carbon and X is a anion like chloride Goldilox (12/8/05; 14:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 138961) Gold Chemistry I don't think alloys are "compounds" in the chemical nomenclature, but rather mixtures. Compounds require shared electron shells.Gold is not completely inert, although not very reactive, either. It takes some really strong reagents to get its attention.http://matsci.uah.edu/CourseWare/mts501/reports/sschwitalla.htmlhttp://www.webelements.com/webelements/elements/text/Au/comp.htmlhttp://www.webelements.com/webelements/compounds/text/Au/Au2O3-1303588.htmlHere's enough reference material to gag a golden calf! Survivor (12/8/05; 13:57:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 138960) Gold Compounds @ Clink! - ". . . never even knew that gold could form compounds. . ."Reaching back to some ancient memories of basic chemistry - I seem to remember that alloys are compounds. That means white gold, and the xx-carat jewelry golds are all compounds of gold.Anyone know of gold compounds that include elements that aren't other metals? I'm pretty sure there aren't any gold-oxides or gold-carbon compounds.- SurvivorPS - Watching the charts is lots of fun right now. . . but where did I put my dramamine?? Whew!- S YGM (12/8/05; 13:53:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 138959) Financial Times Comment on CB Gold Buying By Kevin MorrisonFinancial Times, LondonWednesday, December 7, 2005news.ft.com/cms/s/b50079a8-6712-11da-a650-0000779e2340.htmlGold rose to a 24½-year high on Wednesday, touching $516.50 a troy ounce on Japanese private investor buying as well as benefiting from the flow of investment funds into commodities markets, which has pushed many metal prices to record peaks.Paul Merrick, vice president commodities at RBC Capital, said the strength in the gold market has raised the possibility of central bank buying."There is concerted buying by a significant buyer, and it could be a central bank," said Mr Merrick. Central banks have been net sellers of gold for the last 40 years, although there have been occasional purchases. However, recent positive comments on gold by officials from Argentinian, Russian and South African central banks have given bullion traders hope that some banks may start buying again.Mr Merrick said the 10 per cent rise in the gold price in the past three weeks has not been accompanied by a significant lift in buying of Comex gold futures in New York. Turnover in gold futures on the Tocom exchange in Tokyo was 7.5m ounces, exceeding Comex in New York by nearly 3m ounces. Normally, Tocom volumes are only one third of those traded on Comex."This suggests that there could be another large buyer out there, as there is a concerted effort to buy on any dips in the prices," Mr Merrick said.Gold also reached a record high of €440.53 a troy ounce in single currency terms, and neared £300 sterling for the first time in almost 20 years.Silver reached another 18-year high when it hit $8.86 a troy ounce.Base metals also had a record breaking day. The three-month copper price hit a record high of $4,452 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange after Chilean rail workers that serve the country's top copper mines went on strike on Wednesday, prompting concerns that output of the metal could be affected. Black Blade (12/8/05; 13:38:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 138958) MK, Rich, and All MK - Thank much, and yes of course permission granted. Always like to check in and keep abreast of things. Been a bit busy with the colder weather and natgas drill rigs turning steel. Rich - I have read a couple of reports lately that silver is a bit in short supply. Just heard some bubble head say that digital cameras are making silver obsolete. Gimme a break! The new apps for silver in wood treatment and medical materials have already surpassed the losses in silver-nitrate uses.- Black Blade Goldilox (12/8/05; 13:34:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 138957) More "Peak Government" Isn't it interesting that non-money-printing governments (especially State and local) are suffering similar fates of insovency as some corporations - due to pension obligations. San Diego is a MESS, and anot too long ago, Orange County lost their kiesters in the Bond Market.It's not surprising the gubmint employees want nothing to do with public retirement schemes or busted unions, but their "retirement obligations" are busting the budget at most civic and state levels.As we see more and more "obligations" deferred to "future revenues", the crap tables are returning to government funding. No wonder they want more and more to become the Casino House with their "lotteries", where the gubmint keeps 50% margin to control the game.Nothing short of massive spending cuts can save us from hyperinflafla, but the unemployment resulting from reduction in the government trough will glut the already strained labor market with the "underutilized" (aka bonepile)!Deflationists, your worries are no more than fuel for "Bernanke's Blades!Can you hear them? whoopwhoopwhooopwhoopwhoopwhoop! USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/8/05; 11:53:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 138956) A timely restatement of our "Open Forum" guidelines/policy A previous trial period of weekend "Open Forum" has generally shown us that widening the range of topics does not immediately degrade into a free-for-all and detract from the quality of relevant gold discussion as we originally feared it might. This cleared the way for a relaxation of our past standard -- that posts should always have a detectible relation or insight with respect to gold ownership.Therefore, on July 5th we amended our "open forum" policy to widen the range of discussion throughout the weekdays as well.Permissible discussion topics were broadened to include economics, the political economy and financial markets without necessarily having a gold component tied directly to the train of thought.We felt that this makes for a more interesting and dynamic discussion group. At the same time, we want to continue to emphasize that this remains a gold forum, intended for individuals who either own gold, contemplate ownership or advocate gold as a key element in the domestic or international monetary system. We simply ask posters to keep that in mind when composing their posts.The rules having to do with forum decorum remain in place as do the rules prohibiting the touting of specific stocks or promotion of any kind.We remain thankful to all the posters who have made this a special place to gather on the internet. We hope you find these "open forum" guidelines amenable, and we look forward to your continued participation within these guidelines. OvS (12/8/05; 11:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 138955) Oh yes. And if and when the Asian fluhits, I'll overdose on garlicand walk around with my silver-spoon, oops, I mean a silver-dollar in my mouth; I'll getthem buggers...:-).........OvS OvS (12/8/05; 11:46:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 138954) Clink. Back in the 70's and 80's Iknew a very high rankingIndian Swami in NYC who al-ways wore a golden braceletinsisting it had preventativepowers against arthritis.He also used a silver scraperto clean his tongue. Now weknow of the anti-bacterialproperties of silver...Thereare hundreds of these socalledfarfetched applications andremedies; thank God I have noneed to check them out...yet..Cheers, and up and away....OvS TownCrier (12/8/05; 11:40:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 138953) Russia's gold and currency reserves up http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20051208132412.shtml RBC, 08.12.2005, Moscow -- The Bank of Russia's gold and currency reserves reached $168.4 bn on December 2, up $1.2 bn compared to the previous week.... As a result, the Russian Bank's gold and currency reserves are close to those of South Korea, which ranks fourth in the world in terms of the reserves volume.^---(from url)---^Please recall only two weeks ago that Alexei Ulyukayev, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian central bank, said the bank would be purchasing gold "on all markets on which it is available," (meaning both domestic and foreign markets), and also anticipated at the time that the level of gold and currency reserves would increase by $60 billion by year's end -- which would put the reserves somewhat north of $200 billion.You'll also recall that these comments were made in conjunction with a larger, coordinated media blitz in which several Russian official (including Putin himself) indicated in a combined effort that the weight of gold reserves ought to be more than doubled as necessary to bring their proportion to 10 percent of the total forex reserves.By my back of the envelope calculations, this would be around $20 billion in gold, whereas as of October's official statistics Russia had 387 tonnes of gold in reserves, amounting to only $3.73 billion as officially valued on the books at $300/oz.Therefore, even WITH revaluation opportunities fully accounted for (can't say exactly when the M-T-M switch will happen), this still leaves Russia in search of approximately $15 billion in gold (900 tonnes) "on all markets on which it is available".And this is to say nothing of other recent expressions of potential gold demand by the central banks of Argentina, South Africa, and assorted Asian nations.This is but a small portion of the big picture, but even when taken by itself there really need be no doubt about WHY gold is moving to significantly higher levels.Don't delay, by your gold as available today. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for price quotes and consultation.Toll Free 1-800-869-5115R. Gandalf the White (12/8/05; 11:36:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 138952) look at this LINK http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0 FAB US$ Waterfalls today !!!GO YELLOW<;-) OvS (12/8/05; 11:33:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 138951) R. Powell Perhaps the shorts will saveyour coffee position; theyare working day and night tosave their hide and coffee is flowing freely. The Comexlights are on day and night;the starbuck truck pulls upevery few hours but soon they'll be broke and do theirown dripping...Why coffee? ... I know,I know.There isn't enough action goingon with Silver and Gold..?!!OvS Clink! (12/8/05; 11:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 138950) For the ultimate in gold portability .... http://www.orthop.washington.edu/uw/tabID__3376/print__full/ItemID__76/mid__0/Articles/Default.aspx don't carry it on you, but IN you ! Seriosly, there is currently an article at 321gold which tells of a lion which was injected with a gold compound to help arthritis. I never even knew that gold could form compounds, let alone be used medicinally. A quick Google produced half a million hits so do your own DD ! I know that there are some more senior posters here, so if rheumatoid arthritis is your bane, as it is with my near and dear, then just the thought of being injected might help some, psychosomatically-speaking. Does anyone have any direct experience of the treatment ?C! Druid (12/8/05; 11:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 138949) Galearis (12/8/05; 08:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 138938) http://www.almartinraw.com/ Druid: A chess game where all the pieces might move simultaneously. If you're not a paying member of Mr. Martin's Pay-to-Read site, you might consider it. I don't know how credible this person is but he is suggesting copper prices falling due to under the table deals. The Gold Conundrum & the Chinese Copper Scam (11-21-05) Gold is now approaching $490/ounce, equaling its 18-year high (almost to the day) in 1987.There is much talk in financial media of the great gold conundrum. That is, we are seeing an unusual confluence of economic events, which classically cannot be accounted for. Namely, the price of gold, the dollar and interest rates are all rising at the same time. What does this mean? Flatliner (12/8/05; 10:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 138948) @... delivery problems at COMEX http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=428 Here is a graph that compares Oct to Dec. Still looking for more historical data. mikal (12/8/05; 10:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 138947) Enigmatic gold buyers elicit speculation http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c19769ce-67d5-11da-bfce-0000779e2340.html Gold hits fresh record as private investors buy Kevin Morrison - FT - December 8 2005 - Snippit:"Mr Merrick said the gold price performance is a combination of three factors. "Strong fundamentals, a rampant commodities sector with most base and all precious metals at multi-year or all-time highs, and massive investor interest led by the Japanese and our suspected ‘significant buyer’," Mr Merrick said. He said there had been concerted buying when the gold price dipped and it looked as if it was coming from one particularly party, which could be a central bank. Positive comments on gold by officials from the central banks of Argentina, Russia and South Africa have given bullion traders hope that some central banks may start buying again. However, central banks have been net sellers of gold for the past 40 years, except for the occasional official purchase. Mr Merrick said momentum traders would not want to sell if this month's trajectory continues as gold would be at $568 by year-end and $649 by the end of February." YGM (12/8/05; 10:28:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 138946) Galearis...Paper Breakdown I'm 110% in that camp and have expected it to happen for years. I'm also of the mind that all those Funds etc with Gold loans on the books of CB's are nervous as hell and the Central Banks are probably moreso. I believe any Gold loan contract has a repayment trigger that kicks in if Gold reaches certain price points. Now whether the CB's will kite them, take cash or demand the Physical Gold back is the real question. The facts remain that literally thousands of T's of Gold have been sold on paper (which has yet to see the sunlight above ground) and 100's of T's has been borrowed from CB's over the last few years and sold into the physical market subsequent to short positions being established by the lessee's. The chickens are coming home to roost and it will be an ugly mess before the dust settles. We 'ARE' living in those interesting times the Asians speak of IMHO. Now we'll see CB's become net buyers instead of the other way around maybe! contrarian (12/8/05; 10:20:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 138945) Galearis--equities market at the point of collapse After much reflection on this issue, I do still think we are in a secular bear market in equities, and the last three or so years has just been a short-term bull, although trememdously dragged out due to manipulation techniques learned after 87.And irrespective of what a certain female Bloomberg analyst who has a book out, what's her face says, whose initials are CB, I think, I do still think there is a propping up. People like that are just toeing the party line, and you fast learn on Wall Street that the nail that sticks out quickly gets hammered in. Believe me, I've been there! Sitting next to an "expert" and hearing him say we have low inflation. Ok, he's a guy, and so, he's not like the females who do all the tedious shopping anyways, so what does he know! It's like when George Bush the first went shopping with wifey (probably for the first time in years) and was in wonderment at all the new fangled cash registers. That showed the public how out of touch he was, and one of the reasons he was booted out of 160 Pennsylvania Avenue.But per Tim Wood at Financial Sense, they certainly can influence the short-term trends, but have no influence over the long-term trend, which is larger that any government or manipulator.After going back and forth about this, this is my conclusion, that they're trying to manipulate of course, but they're efforts will ultimately fail.They were, or course, able to beat back the Hindenburg Omen in November, and also Prechter's call for a crash, so their short term tricks are working, but I think long term they're doomed, at at some point it will go down to Dow 3000, first perhaps stopping at 6000 or 7000 on the way.And it's obvious that stocks will rally, perhaps going over 11,000 by end of year, but that this could be a real nasty bear market trap. But who know, I've been waiting for a resumption of the bear in Autumn 2004, then Autumn 2005 and haven't been right yet! But the third time, in the first quarter, could do the trick, and what a surprise it would be!Would be interesting to get other thoughts on this. Gold's shocking upswing does seem to put the pedal to the metal, and is the canary in the mine and chirps all is not well, despite the managed media pablum. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time! ge (12/8/05; 10:19:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 138944) Reuters : NY gold gains early, near new quarter-century peak http://tinyurl.com/d3alu "... the loftiest price [...] since April 1981." Flatliner (12/8/05; 10:17:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 138943) @... delivery problems at COMEX Galearis, Thank you very much for posting your insights into the COMEX delivery situation in this forum. It is very interesting and seems more then relevant for discussion here (if not, I may find my keister polishing boots). In an effort to separate hype, from normality, do you, or does anyone on the forum, have access to historical delivery data? It is one thing to be told that, today, there are 6,603 silver contracts up for delivery (over 33 M. oz). But it is quite different to see it in context with the past (graphically). Can anyone create a bar graph that might cover the last 10 years or so? If not, time will be our teacher. White Rose (12/8/05; 10:08:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 138942) Predicting gold (see previous message) Asia traded gold at $519 last night. We are just under this now. I would predict we will close Comex between $519 and $520.If this system really works, you could make a fortune day trading gold. TownCrier (12/8/05; 09:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 138941) South American Gold http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/south.html Passing along a quick note that the 'South of the Border' December Buyers' Group special has sold out.However, it may not yet be too late for you to still get a small piece of the action. Whereas specific shortages have now made full groupings of the five national coins no longer available, assorted components may yet be on an individual or mix-n-match basis, depending upon specific availability.Call to inquire. 1-800-869-5115R. slingshot (12/8/05; 09:26:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 138939) Great Day to be a Goldbug! Gold had to pass a certain dollar amount for it to catch the eye of small time investors. There is a change in the air when we, Doom and Gloom Goldbugs, become Respectable Goldbugs. It's not here yet but, it is not too far in the future. In my conversations, with friends on the subject of gold, there has always been a stickler. We can talk all about the reasons ,pro and con, till you say it. The PRICE! The two remarks that followed really bowled me over. "I remember when gold was $35.00 an ounce." "I remember when gold was $800.00 an ounce."So I am thinking, Wow, $35 dollars an ounce. And again, Wow $800 an ounce. If things cost 10x more than they when gold was $35 then the GOLD TRAIN was blowing its whistle at $350.There are many people at the station and a few are making their way to the platforms to board the train.The only thing they have to overcome is the price of the ticket.I wonder if that Japanese Investor was Japango (spell) whom was in the news awhile back?Slingshot-------------<> Galearis (12/8/05; 08:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 138938) @Rich re Ag naked shorting - and delivery problems at COMEX Hi Rich,I ran into another uptick on another forum,,,and it would seem that the USAGOLD may have to put up with my outlandish points of view a wee bit more than average. (Smile) But the need for politeness and respect of different points of view within the framework of discussions is very important to the health of forums. Food fights are poison to forums. Injured feelings lead to the position like: "why would I post anything to help THAT so-and-so!" The Kitco forum has lost any number of posters because of this and Bart finally had to rein in some of the excessive types posting there. Yep, and USAGOLD does not have these problems.But as for the paper market,,,I still side with Ted Butler's view: unrestrained naked shorting is an illegal act and a manipulation of markets. I don't have a problem with selling short,,,,but I do when it breaks basic commodity law. The silver market commercial short population has been doing it for years. Just because the CFTC refuses to acknowledge that this is going on (politics again) does not refute the fact of it. There is something similar going on the equities side,,,with a pending (?) scandal involving massive short attacks (it is even alleged that the shorts do not have to cover - I don't understand why ) that may turn out to be just a part of the continuum malaise of the American equities markets at the (a) point of collapse (?) I feel that this will be my position on the whole abusive shorting scheme, and an area (at least in the silver and gold markets) about which we can easily agree to disagree. But the theme may be a moot one anyway:You mentioned news/insights, I think? Just in from my brother, Rhody. At long last there is just an inkling of interest in this subject from another forum and the following timely (for this task at hand) email discussion ensued:Hello: [I guess this chap doesn't get Midas.] My brother and I, and now NickLaird have been all over this data for three months. It does explain whygold and silver are trading differently. Simply put, instead of the usual2% of OI delivery rate, large percentages of the OI are being called fordelivery, at prices that have been suppressed by those same futures (papergold) pricing system. If only 2% of people buying futures typically takedelivery, a large commercial short can naked short the futures market (sellfutures for which he has no actual metal to deliver if called) withimpunity. It is now obvious to these mega short sellers that to sell nakedshort is lethal. That means the volume of selling is imploding and goldand silver are doing a melt up. For the first time in twenty years, thismarket is beginning to respond like a physical market. Gold and silverare both in deficits of supply, so you know what that will do to the price.Even the paper price. Now that there is a raid on COMEX stockpiles, itremains to be seen if we will get a default. From here, it looks like thesilver market is at risk of default.Regards Rhody.********And of course with the usual big FWIW tacked on at the end. Note, however, that Ted Butler considers copper to be much more critical with its current difficulties than what is going on with silver (and I presume, gold) deliveries. Maybe this sort of thing happens behind the scenes every decade or so. What do you think? I rather agree that the commercials are positioning themselves for the new evolution in this market. If even half of what their short exposure is true, it won't help most of them. Keep in mind that the COMEX management will probably limit the size of physical withdrawals. I actually expect this ploy as an attempt to keep the paper market in the metals solvent. Heck if they can do what they do to the POS based on physical WITHDRAWALS out of COMEX ,,,,on average amounting to 1 to 2 million ounces each delivery month,,,then it is not a stretch to expect them to carry on the paper market scheme with (for example) actually limiting the physical withdrawals BY POLICY to exactly these same numbers. Or maybe LESS. But that's conjecture, of course…Apt conjecture, perhaps,,,,but conjecture none the less.I think the COMEX management is going to try anything to solve this mess!Lots of room for different views about THESE markets, yes? By my count only 4 people have even commented on what appears to be a run on gold and silver on the COMEX. Go figure! We must be wrong by reason of omission of consensus. (smile)But I think at least a few of us are watching this breakdown of the paper market,,,and I intend to enjoy it. I've waited a long time for it. Who needs company for something like this? (smile)Except for a,,,smug fest.Best regards,G. R Powell (12/8/05; 08:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 138937) OvS Please drip a few extra cups of coffee. I'm long (and have been wrong) coffee. Yah, I know, I should have invested those funds in gold + silver, but there is some there as well and, maybe, as Karen Carpenter said, we've only just begun. OvS (12/8/05; 08:20:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 138936) I need a second cup of coffee. Apolitical Worldbank, intoA political Worldbank. Mea culpa. OvS (12/8/05; 08:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 138935) Goldilox. Wolfowitz's re-interpretation:Apolitican Worldbank, intoA politican Worldbank.I was also unaware that MK changed the forum policy. Isuppose it's when the politicaldebate overwhelms our goldforumsome people feel like kicking..If the policy was not changedback to the previous one, itmakes sense to voluntarily holdback. I'd prefer that kind ofself-policing...Up and away.OvS Chris Powell (12/8/05; 08:05:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 138933) Financial Times notes that there's a 'substantial buyer' for gold, maybe a central bank news.ft.com/cms/s/b50079a8-6712-11da-a650-0000779e2340.html By Kevin MorrisonFinancial Times, LondonWednesday, December 7, 2005Gold rose to a 24½-year high on Wednesday, touching $516.50 a troy ounce on Japanese private investor buying as well as benefiting from the flow of investment funds into commodities markets, which has pushed many metal prices to record peaks.Paul Merrick, vice president commodities at RBC Capital, said the strength in the gold market has raised the possibility of central bank buying."There is concerted buying by a significant buyer, and it could be a central bank," said Mr Merrick. Central banks have been net sellers of gold for the last 40 years, although there have been occasional purchases. However, recent positive comments on gold by officials from Argentinian, Russian and South African central banks have given bullion traders hope that some banks may start buying again.Mr Merrick said the 10 per cent rise in the gold price in the past three weeks has not been accompanied by a significant lift in buying of Comex gold futures in New York. Turnover in gold futures on the Tocom exchange in Tokyo was 7.5m ounces, exceeding Comex in New Yorkby nearly 3m ounces. Normally, Tocom volumes are only one third of those traded on Comex. "This suggests that there could be another large buyer out there, as there is a concerted effort to buy on any dips in the prices," Mr Merrick said. ... R Powell (12/8/05; 07:29:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 138932) Black blade Thanks for the thoughts, always look for them. May I add that the composite index numbers you mentioned are also somewhat altered or massaged toward the upside every time a company falters and is simply dropped from the index, replaced by another. I believe (not sure?) that an index like the S+P 500 is simply the 500 companies that trade on the exchange with the highest market cap. If I'm right about this, (someone please correct me if I'm not) and if market cap is a valid indication that a company is doing well, then a company that doesn't prosper is replaced by one that does. This tends to keep the index membership filled by those who are doing well as opposed to those who are not. I also have never seen anyone mention an inflation adjusted index gain. After all, if a true value is one represented by an inflation adjusted number when long term comparisons are used to support arguments, shouldn't these index numbers also be so adjusted? If so, then perhaps stocks are not even holding even...?? Thanks also for sharing your opinion that the metals' upside is based on fundamentals, rather than what those peoples' television stock promoters usually attribute any gold price rise to. Why must a rising POG always only mean doom + gloom, why overlook the obvious? Gold trades as a commodity and must respond to supply/demand as surely as wheat, coffee, crude or soybeans do, no? Perhaps it's just that the idea of a gold or especially silver shortage in the physical market hasn't occured in our lifetimes..? But one day, I suspect, the sleeper will awaken. Have you any information, news or overheard opinions of the supply/demand situation with silver? TIA rich White Rose (12/8/05; 07:19:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 138931) How to predict the gold market these days Step one: remember the general trading area for gold in asia around 8-11 pm EST.Step two: expect gold to be about $1-$2 above the previous Comex close at 6-7 am ESTStep three: expect gold to be about $1-$2 below the previous close just after the Comex open at 8:20 PM Step four: gold goes above water in 1-3 hours of Comex tradingStep five: gold closes on the Comex at the number observed in step one.I do expect a real breakdown after gold hits $560-$580. In the meantime, it is fun to see how predictiable it is getting. MK (12/8/05; 06:39:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 138930) Black Blade With your permission, I would like to put your last post up at the Daily Market Report. Good analysis. Ned (12/8/05; 04:26:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 138929) If you are watching the London PM fix.... London PM fix yesterday, Dec. 7, 2005:$515.40takes out 22 year high on Feb. 16, 1983:$509.25Next stop, 24 year high on March 26, 1981:$539.50Then some "open air" to Jan. 21, 1981:$578.00 YGM (12/8/05; 03:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 138928) Black Blade .... Thanks! Nice late nite treat to read your accumulated musings when you arrive home from work. You are missed in your absences...YGM Black Blade (12/8/05; 03:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 138927) Of Carnival Barkers, Cannibals, Stocks and Gold The Carnival Barkers on CNBC are a bit frightened lately as they watch Gold push through $500/oz. Yesterday Joe Kernan "squawked" about all the email he gets from "Goldbugs" waiting for the apocalypse. Personally I doubt that "Goldbugs" are anxiously hoping for end-of-the-world scenarios but apparently Joe buys into the stereotype. The reason the POG has rocketed has not been because of the flat-lining US Dollar – although that is a small part of it, nor has it been on inflation concerns. Note that the POG has risen in spite of the US Dollar gaining against all other currencies and the government agencies releasing "data" suggesting "benign" inflation. That Gold is rising against a supposedly "strong" dollar really has the Carnival Barkers bummed. True, all currencies are weak and getting weaker. The US Dollar is gaining against even weaker currencies. So what! No, the reason that Gold is rising is because of very strong physical demand from China, India, and the Middle East, and now even here in the west more and more investors are looking for other hard assets including precious metals now that the real estate bubble is deflating. China has liberalized laws governing personal gold ownership. A rapidly emerging middle class in India with more wealth and an affinity toward savings in Gold. Petrodollars looking for a home in the Middle East where the culture here too favors Gold. Miners have yet to make much headway in exploration efforts and to get new mines into production. Obviously demand will outstrip supply for many years. What the Carnival Barkers do not understand are the most basic principles of "demand and supply". We can forgive them though as nearly all of CNBC's Carnival Barkers have degrees in journalism (or biochemistry in the case of Joe Kernan). These people are not "experts" but simply salesmen pitching stocks and stock market cheerleaders. The last thing they want to see is Gold rise to fair market value and compete against stocks and bonds for consumer dollars. I always get a good chuckle when they say Gold is in a bear market and has not recovered to the temporary spike to $850/oz in 1980. Joe Kernan did say that Gold was a bad investment because it did not recover to $800/oz. Well that's nice, but all that tells me is that we have at least another $300/oz to the upside and perhaps another $800/oz beyond that adjusted for inflation. The argument Joe makes is utterly meaningless. Gold was also held down as mega-hedgers conspired with bullion banks to drive competitors out of business. Today I get a good laugh as mega-hedgers Barrick and Placer Dome argue over the cost of a merger. To me that is like two cannibals on a deserted island arguing over who to have for dinner! Heck, the Nasdaq has not recovered to its high of about 5050. I mean the Nasdaq is over 55% off its high! Using Joe's reasoning, the last thing you would want to invest in are stocks! They have been horrible investments since March 2000! The DOW is still quite a bit off its high as well. The DOW wallows at 10811, well off its all time high of 11,908.50 on January 14, 2000. That is still over 9.2% off its high. Not bad for an index of a mere 30 stocks but still a loser. Then there is the S&P 500 closing at 1257, just 18% off its all time high of 1527 in March 2000! Yessirree, the stock indices have been horrible investments since the crash 6 years ago. Of course many people lost their retirements, hopes and dreams back then. Those who bailed out of techs, dot.bombs, and tele.gones and turned to precious metals and energy like many of us did very well. Those who remained as Joe Kernan and his fellow Carnival Barkers directed lost everything. Oh yeah – "booyah"! Yep, the Carnival Barkers are running scared as they watch Gold and Silver streak higher, and they are also wetting themselves as they watch energy prices defy gravity. Yet these clowns tell us "all is well" and the economy is doing just fine. In the same breath they tremble with fear as the prices of hard assets rise and stocks look weak once again. Another amusing point is that they always trott out some alleged investing "expert" who predicts some higher sticker price for the DOW by year-end. I admit that I was amused that the DOW has been trickling down for several days now. No, all the CNBC Carnival Barkers whining about the Gold price have done nothing but point out that Gold remains grossly under-valued. This secular bull has a long way to go. We are still in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market for precious metals and energy. So cheer up. We can expect a couple of minor corrections with each leg up but the trend is our friend!- Black Blade Knallgold (12/8/05; 01:29:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 138926) Gold geplapper Heard yesterday on TV,analysts warn that the Goldbubble might soon pop.If I would have to give a # for Gold being in a bubble,it would be,conservatively,about 100'000$/oz. Goldilox (12/8/05; 01:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 138925) Why we may NEED inflafla http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Shadowlands/6583/project162.html I ran across this snip from Ike's oft-quoted farewell speech.In his farewell address to the nation in 1961, President Eisenhower said:"...we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations."-GoldiloxAside from the M-I complex warnings we usually hear, this morsel contains an even more compelling story. If the expenditures of just one part of government exceeded all Corp income in the US 45 years ago, what mechanism other than inflation could keep it afloat? Perhaps Bernanke's "measured inflafla" theories are not so obtuse, but actually reflect the only means possible to continue funding a government spending machine that is exponentially out-growing the economy.We talk often about "peak oil". Is our world-wide burgeoning debt burden an example of "peak government"? Is an appropriate proportion of blame for our current problems placed on the consumer's "gotta have it now" philosophy, when the government's (overt + covert) borrowed expenditures take more money than a healthy economy can produce?One of Bucky Fuller's (who is often labeled a socialist) warnings was that government spending cannot outpace private production without civilization experiencing retardation as a direct effect.These are pretty "topical" questions if anyone wants to take a stab at them.P.S. The link is about something entirely different, but the quote is real. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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