Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.
The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/8/2004 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Operative (01/08/04; 23:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 114928) @ Goldilox Your link to the dollar chart reminds me of a losing fighter (the dollar) who after laying on the mat decides to get back up. The next knock down ought to be a major one. I cannot help but wonder if this fight would have been over much earlier had the dollar not been on steriods supplied by Japan. Waverider (01/08/04; 23:58:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114927) Bank of Russia puts new gold and silver coins in circulation http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=286383&PageNum=0 "The Bank of Russia on Thursday put gold and silver memorable coins in circulation. The coins belong to the "Signs of the Zodiac" series and have the Aquarius sign depicted on their facial side. The golden coin has a value of 50 roubles while the silver coin has a value of three roubles, a source at the Bank of Russia's Foreign and Public Relations Department told Itar-Tass. The Bank of Russia will issue up to 30,000 coins of each type. The Central Bank officials say that these coins can be used as payment means any time with no restriction." Aristotle (01/08/04; 23:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 114926) Goldilox -- silver margins A sign of tighter liquidity in Ag??Tigher how? In the futures market or the physical? In either case how would higher margins provide beneficial relief?Seems to me higher margins would curb liquidity in the futures market by lessening its accessibility to Little Joe. And as far as the availability of silver to meet physical demand, how many of these Little Joe gamblers are taking delivery on their contracts? None. Or rather, not enough to matter a tinker's dam.So where are we now? I'm sorry, I guess I don't quite follow what you're driving at.When in doubt...Gold. Get you some. --- Ari Goldilox (01/08/04; 23:56:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114925) Limit UP @ SlingshotLimit up precursor the day Sir AG gives a public speech wearing a golden colored tie!!! slingshot (01/08/04; 23:50:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114924) Paint Me A Picture What parameters would cause gold to "Limit Up"? We have experienced the six dollar,ten dollar spikes. If I remember correctly, the limit up is $75.00.Except for the use of WMD's are there any indicators or precursers that would signal a large spike?As gold assends faster than previous years and the warnings of the IMF, I thought it would be prudent to have an idea of the triggers that would percipitate such an event.Slingshot----------------<> Goldilox (01/08/04; 23:50:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114923) BOJ http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 @ GandalfIs this the BOJ doing their morning calisthentics?"We must . . . we must . . . we must develop the bu$t!"I know - it's tacky!!! Operative (01/08/04; 23:49:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 114922) Increase of Margins ANOTHER sign of things/events to come. First, increase the margins on the paper, then at a time yet to come, will begin the increase of margin/premium of the physical. People who have learned of the facts will begin to scurry about for the physical only to find, none available, or available at prices far beyond reach. Goldilox (01/08/04; 23:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114921) New Silver Margins @ Ari, LW, RichMight the change in silver margins and NOT gold margins be a sign of tighter liquidity in Ag? Maybe some of the shortages that have defied market interest so far are being felt? Goldilox (01/08/04; 23:26:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114920) Metal Value of Coinage Not long ago, we had a short discussion on the value of coinage and some of the coin recycling being done by China, in particular. Here's a short rant from a neighboring castle that I found interesting - link omitted in resepct for our host.As we have reviled the great frauds of FDR and RMN, let us not forget the continued devaluation efforts of LBJ, who turned Kennedy halves into slugs within 18 months of their release. . . not to mention his huge Viet-Nam war deficits.snippit:"What's the Euro got that we ain't got?For starters, credibility. Which is amazing in and of itself, insofar as the Euro is minted with the same crummy non-precious metals as the USD.In coin denominations, the Euro comes out like this: pennies, tuppences and nickels are struck (cast?) in steel with a copper alloy. Dimes, quarters (actually 20-cent pieces) and halves are steel with a copper-zinc coating. The dollars are made of copper, nickel and brass.Duct-tape a few Euro coins to the propeller shaft or rudder of your boat and they will provide real value as an excellent protection from electrolysis. Otherwise they are as lacking in intrinsic value as their American cousins. They are slugs.American coins, by the way, are fabricated as follows: pennies, copper-plated zinc, with copper comprising 2.5 percent of the value by weight; nickels, dimes, quarters and halves, 8.33 percent nickel and 91.67 percent copper. Compare these metallic culls with the venerable Morgan silver dollar, which was 10 percent copper and 90 percent silver and weighed in at a little over three quarters of an ounce.The halves, quarters and dimes of the pre-Lyndon Baines Johnson era were of the same composition as the Morgan: 90 percent silver and 10 percent copper. LBJ and the Congress abdicated their Constitutional duty to keep the money clean and capitulated totally to the privately-held Federal Reserve Bank in 1965 by debasing the coinage and calling back the United States Notes that John F. Kennedy had ordered issued just prior to his assassination. In fact, the callback of this last non-Fed USD was LBJ's first executive order....The only coin in the realm that's even remotely worth its stated value is the U.S. penny. A hundred copper-plated zinc pennies produced by the U.S. Mint last year actually contained about 80 cents worth of metal - probably more now, given that copper, lead and zinc are all up 50 percent over last summer's commodity prices." steady (01/08/04; 23:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114919) hahaha i just got it. whoever posted zuma zoom hahahah ! I couldnt see your eys..... Goldilox (01/08/04; 23:17:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 114918) Healthcare costs @LHGovernment serves the insurance companies (the "banks" of the healthcare system well. Not only do the insurance companies bilk the public and raise rates drastically every time they lose a bundle in some stupid, incredibly risky investment (like Brazil), but they bilk the providers for incredible costs for things like mal-pactice insurance. The government "of the lawyers, for the lawyers, by the lawyers" refuses to pass reasonable tort reform, so one scummy lawyer can cry a jury into awarding multi-millions for a burgler injured by a guard dog and other such nonsense.We really are becoming a "service economy", but in generations past they called such "self-serve" practices larceny.It's just another nail in the coffin of the once mighty US economy.Better get gold - faith in US goobermint, banks, and insurance companies is nigh unto revealing its true worth. steady (01/08/04; 23:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114917) gold/ silver....... what else is there ? 68.26 and climbing! Liberty Head (01/08/04; 22:44:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 114916) RE: Goldilox - Health Care Costs rising Goldilox,Prices for healthcare are rising mainly due to extremely heavy government regulation of the industry. The cost of compliance is what you see, but the industry takes the hit for being the bad guy, not the government. It is typical government jive. The sheep then clamor for more government involvement and the spiral continues.The government does not want to privatize medical care, they want to privatize Medicare. This gives them another layer to the fall guy cushion.Healthcare used to be an attractive career field, but there is very little new blood, while many more retire early or move on.The government controls the cost of healthcare simply by denial of care. If you think it is HMO's that are the problem, guess who created the HMO system?The best medical insurance there is, is to take care of yourself. This would include owning some value insurance as well, the golden kind.Best Wishes Waverider (01/08/04; 22:36:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114915) Rising yen may stall Japan's recovery http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,104645,00.html "SIGNS of rising alarm are appearing among Japanese exporters as the yen continues to approach what a major business lobby group says is the critical defence line of 105 to the US dollar, beyond which Japan's export-led recovery could stall. Renewed intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has failed to prevent the yen climbing to around 106 and some analysts believe that the dollar's continuing fall could overwhelm Japan's massive efforts to 'buy' recovery. Even more worrying, say some economists, is what is implied by the fact that the price of gold surged this week to its highest level since 1988, when it pushed above US$430 an ounce. While this may reflect concern about general commodity inflation - with the price of oil hitting US$34 barrel and metal prices surging - it could also signal that a major 'disorderly' correction of the dollar is in view, they say. Some, such as Hong Kong-based Christopher Wood, who publishes the Greed and Fear newsletter, have suggested that gold price could top US$3,000 an ounce eventually, in line with a continuing decline in the dollar. But even with a less savage decline of the dollar, the ability of the heavily-indebted US to continue for long as the chief growth locomotive for Asia and the rest of world is becoming uncertain."Waverider: Yes - the alarm bells are sounding in Japan! Golden Era (01/08/04; 22:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114914) Bulldog I used the wrong word. What I meant was that the US$ is "backed" by Gold and PM, and not "pegged". So effectively the NEW US$ is worth the value in physical PM. Physical gold itself is not a practical form of transaction so some form of paper currencies will still be required.Yes, gold may need to be in the thousands of dollars based on existing US$. The other PM will also rise in value to create a new US$ currency.Is this a plausible outcome to avoid a possible world-wide economic disaster? Aristotle (01/08/04; 22:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114913) Waverider: "It's interesting that they didn't raise margins on Gold." Well, you see, they already played that solo act about a year ago; February 6th comes to mind, give or take a day.So why not do it again along with these others? Maybe the volitility seems well enough in hand. But also maybe the subtle vibe in the game is now to channel people not away but into INTO the paper, I say again, the *PAPER* Gold market. As if you can't keep their interests away from the Yellow, you can at least direct it into a more managable medium -- boundless paper contracts.I don't know when the end game will recognizably arrive, but I'm sure it'll bear this sorta resemblance. A ballroom where everyone is encouraged to dance with paper dolls.Gold metal, I say again, *METAL*. Get you some. --- Ari Gandalf the White (01/08/04; 22:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114912) Everyone has heard of "Streaming Charts" ---- YES ? http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 WELL --- please take a look at this "SCREAMING Chart" !!!!The US$ Index chart of TODAY ! Look fast or it will be gone -- It "Streams" too.Proof that Gold is going only in the NORTH direction for a while!<;-) Operative (01/08/04; 21:57:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114911) @ GAB Seeing, as through a dark glass, you have pointed some paths to the true light. Dollar Bill (01/08/04; 21:48:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114910) *>* "For monetary policy in the US, low money growth presents an even greater opportunity to stay easy. In the first stock market bubble back in 2000, the Fed's justification to run an easy monetary policy was productivity and the "New Economy". During and after the recession, the Fed's justification for super easy monetary policy was the "Fear of Deflation.Now, the low money growth in M1, M2 and M3, present another opportunity to keep monetary policy easy. If the Fed picks up on the low money growth - which is actually caused by people fleeing the dollar - as an excuse to really gear up the Fed printing press, people may flee the dollar even faster! In the short run, the Fed can point to low domestic money growth and sell us the idea that inflation can't pick up because money growth is low. In reality, money growth will be extraordinarily high. In addition, the US easy money policy encourages Asia and the rest of the World to reflate to counter the "phony rise" in their currencies, and competitive devaluation becomes the new game in the world currency markets."Sir GAB, Even the guy with self control and with most ducks in a row, finds that that biggest game of all, the one of well, let me put this not in my usual ways. You try to be a certain way, and find we cannot stay that way. We are unable to fix to a standard we decide on.Because we are under the game rules that keep us challenged to realign ourselves with the best character we can have.Challenged how? We cannot keep impurities away, troubles away, personal flaws away, no matter what we try, we are in an evironment where we will always be beset with challenges. The best approach is to recognise the coach of the heart, and ask fer help. My request? That things of the heart work out.I may look like the dummy in a hundred ways, surrounded by troubles, but the judgement of how I lived will be graded most likely by my very own heart. And its freedom can be there in any circumstance. Even if it looks like slavery.But its freedom take almost constant effort it seems. Waverider (01/08/04; 21:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114909) NYMEX raises electricity, silver, copper margins http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4096803&newsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets "The New York Mercantile Exchange said Thursday that it will increase the margins on its PJM monthly electricity futures contract and its COMEX Division silver and copper futures effective at Friday's close...Margins on the silver futures contract will increase to $1,500 from $1,000 for clearing members, to $1,650 from $1,100 for members, and to $2,025 from $1,350 for customers."Waverider: It's interesting that they didn't raise margins on Gold. Bulldog (01/08/04; 21:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114908) Golden Era If the $ gets pegged to gold, then given the amount of $,gold will be valued in 5 figures. I myself am waiting for gold to be its own standard, beyond merely fiat. I do expect the physical supplies to dry up sooner than later. When they say, gold get you some, it is the best advice to follow. If we live long enough, this "wealth" will come.If I get rid of any of my gold, it will not be for fiat, but to acquire assets. steady (01/08/04; 21:15:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114907) WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <:+)/`````~~ those who have acted profligately, face a renewal of habits and thoughts in order to comprehend and cope not only with whats up now but with whats coming down the pipe. Great Albino Bat (01/08/04; 20:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114906) Dark thoughts.... I hold these facts to be facts:That all men are NOT created equal.That they are NOT endowed by their Creator with any rights.That the Creator does NOT endow men with any right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.That governments are NOT instituted among men, to secure these rights.*******************All men are not created equal. Some are a) slaves by nature b) some are enslaved against their will and c) some men are free by nature. These are a small minority of mankind.Slaves by nature: most human beings; they want someone to tell them what to think, what to do, how to amuse themselves. They are satisfied with little: food, a shack, plenty of drink, free sex and games to entertain them; if not present at games, T.V. will do very well.Enslaved against their will: eventually, some of these can find their freedom either in their thoughts or, by their intelligence they can gain it from their masters.Free by nature: a very small percentage of mankind who can think for themselves, who can select what they want to do and what they want to achieve without anyone telling them, and who can discipline their passions – especially sex – and attain to self-control.Men have no rights by simply being born. Only the free men by nature can obtain rights at the cost of their blood if necessary. There is no other way to obtain rights but by fighting for them at risk of life and limb.Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are prizes for free men willing to fight to the death for them. No other price will suffice to gain them.Governments are instituted among men, in today's world, to keep the slaves and the enslaved, in their place. And to enslave as many as possible amongst the otherwise free.The mass of mankind have always been either slaves or enslaved men. In our time, this eternal situation is being reestablished. Democracy is merely theatrics to distract the slaves from what is really going on.In other ages, the ruler was King, or Monarch, and his rule was thought to be divinely determined. This is the rule of one.The aristocracy, rule of the best, became simply rule of the privileged and these were swept away two hundred years ago, amid the degeneracy of the aristocracy.In place of the aristocracy, we have seen oligarchy, rule of the few. But these few were supplanted by:Democracy, rule of the many. This is supposed to exist today, but it is actually PLUTOCRACY, rule of the rich.Most of today's plutocracy have forgotten that real wealth is possession of gold. They are really SLAVES who think they are rich, nothing more.The collapse of their stupidity – slaves are stupid – their thinking that paper numbers are wealth, will cull their numbers dramatically, when paper burns.The remaining more cunning of the plutocracy will eventually fight amongst themselves, for the rich are intensely jealous of anyone with more than they have, and this fighting will finally narrow down to a handful of plutocratic rulers of the world.Their lord, unlike the Lord of the Christian Kings, will not be God, but Satan; since they will deny any superior power (such is modern "thought") they must come under the influence of the inferior power, Satan.To this blind alley has humanity come, since installing the God of Reason in the French Revolution.I can see no further.You wish to attempt to be a free man? Start by owning gold, which makes you independent, to a degree. The GAB Goldilox (01/08/04; 20:28:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114905) Health Care Costs rising http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=domesticNews&storyID=4095317 snippit:"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. health care spending rose to $1.6 trillion in 2002, fueled by higher hospital and prescription drug costs, according to an annual government survey released on Thursday.Americans' spending on their health is rising more than twice as fast as the economy overall, according to the report by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. And consumers, businesses and the government can ill-afford it, the CMS said.Healthcare spending shot up 9.3 percent in 2002, more than double the growth rate of the gross domestic product or GDP, the sum of all output in the United States.But as the effects of the recession of past years kick in and as employers start paying less and less of workers' health care bills, this growth will start to flag, the CMS economists predicted."We've had two successive years of rather dramatic increases in the share of GDP going to health care," said Katharine Levit, who helped write the report published in the journal Health Affairs."This continued acceleration increases pressure into the health care system and everyone -- from businesses to government to consumers -- is affected," she said.Hospital spending was the biggest part of the growth pie, and its increases were in proportion to hospitals' overall share of the health care budget. But prescription spending grew 15.3 percent in 2002, out of proportion to its 10 percent share of overall health care spending, Levit said."Much of this growth is coming from the cost of prescription drugs and also the cost of insurance," Levit told a news conference. "It's growing much faster than other components of the health care sector."Goldilox:It's no wonder the government wants to privatize all medical care in the long run, as it's one of the most rapidly inflating of non-CPI costs. Goldilox (01/08/04; 20:16:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114904) poker PA-I don't think so. Paper Avalanche (01/08/04; 20:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 114903) @ Goldilox Regarding the poker game, have you seen Chris Moneymaker in the game?Sorry to be off topic Randy.PA Golden Era (01/08/04; 18:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114902) About Greenspan I suspect that Greenspan's hidden agenda is to intentionally create an environment that will "force" a situation for the US dollar to be pecked to Gold and other PM. A man of his stature is not known to be careless in speech as some may suggest and we all know how he feels about Gold. This has always been his "dream" but he cannot be upfront about what he is doing for political reasons until such time when he feels the world has reached that crossroad.A ridiculous hunch? Goldilox (01/08/04; 18:14:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 114901) Hole card @ PizzBeen watching the World Poker Championships on the tube from Vegas. Showing the hole cards early is a tactic used by a weaker opponent to close the betting early and rake a small quick pot to help even the stakes. They "called" early on to chase out weak players and lock potentially strong hands from futher commitment of funds. Then prayed that the "flop" didn't improve the opponents hand.If BOJ is playing these tactics, they are truly desperate to stay in the game!(:^) Goldilox Goldilox (01/08/04; 18:03:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114900) Metalor case @ GS, PAIt looks like US Customs didn't take the gold because it was exported. The South American cops probably took it or took a bribe to let it pass into more powerful hands. Imagine if Ken Lay or Skillings have to pay double their skim? Let's see - $15B x2 = a whole lot of semollians.Shampoo bottles? Geez . . . these 8 oz bottles feel like 10 lbs. I wonder what's up with that? "A pint's a pound . . . er 10 . . . the world around." Did the jack-onomists at the FED help them with their logistics and planning?Send a camera team from "America's Dumbest Criminals". Pizz (01/08/04; 17:14:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 114899) If you're going to expose your hole card. . . you might want to consider whether it's good enough to make the opponent turn and run.Or in other words, it just may have been that the announcement of Japan's massive budget for dollar intervention, that IMHO was publicized for the sole purpose of running in a few shorts and to rally the dollar, backfired just a bit.Maybe just a few dollar sellers now know they can unload billions without cascading the price down. . . Nice controlled crash we have going here, gettin a sore neck trying to keep up with the gyrations. What are half and three quarter cent moves on a 5 minute tickchart worth anyway? Trader's dream if your 'in the groove" or have inside info. Can't imagine playing the currency market with 7 figure gyrations . . .have to be a pure psycopath for that. . .gee boss, got a cup of java and missed my trade for 10 billion. . . .Pizz Kilo (01/08/04; 16:45:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114898) mdgc (01/08/04; 14:16:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114887) But "how" do those foreign governments obtain those dollars in the first place ? Trade defecits and surpluses are not ran up by governments, but by the collective businesses who actually make up "the markets". Governments themselves don't "produce" anything except more and more expenses and debt. These businesses, more often than not, need their own currencies rather than the dollars they are receiving in payments (unless they are returning those same dollars back to the U.S. in more trade), so in order for these businesses to do so, they have to "trade" dollars to their own government for their own currencies, i.e. their governments have to print (or produce electronically) the local currency needed to make the equal trades for local currencies possible.As much as we like to think so at times, it's not all about the dollar. Socrates964 (01/08/04; 16:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 114897) Ari/MDGC Ari - I think Doug Nolan made the same good point in November, as part of an argument that Japanese/Chinese trade surpluses were recycled directly into the long end of the US yield curve, bypassing the monetary aggregates (for which reason, the latter were no longer a reliable guide to overall credit creation).I just wonder about 2 things:-Would the Chinese play fast and loose by dumping their dollars in the market, knowing that the terribly obliging BOJ was out there as dollar buyer of the last resort.-There's that theorem in economics whose name I've forgotten about only being able to maximize 2 of 3 variables.The BOJ is already printing yen on demand from exporters and recycling the national trade surplus into longer-dated US paper. Presumably the demand for yen from the MOF to mop up $$ and support $/Y requires even more yen issuance, but once the MOF sells the Y for $ in the market, can it then use its acquired $ to buy more US debt or is it likely that when it sells its newly acquired dollars to buy bonds, the dollars leak straight back into the FX market and trigger another round of intervention?As such, until the US raises rates and actually inspires foreign investors to hold shorter-term US paper (which probably isn't going to happen this year), I wonder if the MOF doesn't get stuck with cash dollars and this actually starts to constrain their/the BOJ's ability to buy longer-dated US debt.In other words, Japanese efforts to stabilize the US exchange rate may actually raise the likelihood of a sell-off in US bonds.Any thoughts? steady (01/08/04; 15:53:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 114896) i dun been learnt today kilo, burp... excuse me i need to digest that food for thought. thanks.! 21mabry (01/08/04; 15:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114895) MAX RABBITZ Max, my undergrad work cost me 3700 a semester not counting books,which the school charges far above fair price for.My graduate work costs double my undergrad work.I did not need to get any loans these last 3 semesters I have been lucky,but I did get loans for most of my undergrad work and they will be a burden.I did not like taking them out but my family is not rich and even working fulltime while going to school I could not afford tuition without them.Maybe my pm investments will pay them off for me.21 P.S I attend a state school no way could I afford a private school TownCrier (01/08/04; 15:32:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 114894) ATTN new poster 'Lisa' http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html I have processed your request for a posting handle and sent to you your new posting password, but the email bounced back as undeliverable.You might want to contact me directly to verify your email address, or else resubmit the Forum registration form (at url above).Randysitemaster@usagold.com Great Albino Bat (01/08/04; 15:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 114893) The GAB feels a Haiku coming on... "Down the centuries...Paper for democracies;Gold for Charlemagne!"The GAB Aristotle (01/08/04; 15:15:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114892) Hold the phone, mdgc! Let's think this through... I believe you've got a gap in your model of the process.You said the J's and C's currencies are not kept low through fresh emission, but rather "They do it by using the greenback they have accummulated through their trade surpluses to buy US T-bill and bonds."Alrighty then, first let's get to the root of who you are referring to when you say "They."Do you mean the foreign Government?Or do you mean the foreign Businesses?Because, surely we'll agree, it is the Businesses, not the Governments, that are the ones EARNING/GETTING those dollars with their exporting activities that result in the Net Trade Surplus.So are you suggesting ALL those U.S. bonds headed toward China and Japan are being acquired by the Businesses?And yet, don't those same Businesses need to convert a lot of their dollar earnings into Yen or Yuan/renminbi in order to pay their employee wages and their local operating expenses?That's where we may ultimately see the dollars hit the foreign exchange windows, flowing to the money center banks and to the national central bank where the decision is made to issue new local currency against the acceptance of these new dollars as reserve assets (as oposed to the alternative of selling these dollars abroad to obtain (at higher prices) the Yen/Yuan being sought by the Exporters.)They'll only support this one-way system of wealth transfer (to the U.S.) for so long -- until economic structural changes (and social fabric) have evolved/strengthened to the point where workers get beyond eking out a survival existence and begin enjoying the fruits of their own labors. Why should they use dollars for a mattress when an actual MATTRESS makes a better mattress? See what I mean? Improvements to real wealth savings (and standard of living) requires them to seek real products -- including their own -- rather than U.S. dollar savings.Get it? Got it? Good!Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle CoBra(too) (01/08/04; 14:57:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 114891) Socrates - Baffled? ... Postpone the inevitable, I guess!Sorry for short reply - will try to find more time later...cb2PS: Re Trichet's ECB Q&A today - was a good show - especially his answer to a Q. about intervention levels allegedly mentioned by him at the Dubai G7 - "Not to my memory!" - Ha, level levels until the levels are levelling the playing field, eh, system! Paper Avalanche (01/08/04; 14:55:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114890) @ Gold Standard Interesting story.Note that they did not take the gold that was used as the vehicle for the crime but assessed the corporation a fine payable in paper dollars (bank credit). That causes me to think that corporations can only deal in fiat / bills / notes (or other paper promises) and sovereign men should deal only in physical gold.Take care.Paper Avalanche Socrates964 (01/08/04; 14:44:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114889) mdgc Sir mdgc,agree in general with your point about Japs/Chinese loaning trade surplus $$s back to the US Treasury, but surely the issue here is that this is no longer sufficient to stop the $ from sagging.Hence the story about MOF doing bond repos with the BOJ. Granted, this is just an internal transfer of bonds between 2 bits of the Japanese government, but what is the MOF getting in return? Presumably the newly printed yen that it needs to buy dollars with.Surely the BOJ is expanding domestic liquidity here in the vain hope that the dollar will levitate, allowing them to sell the dollars they bought at 106 back into the market for yen, which they then return to the BOJ and get their T-bonds back. Not a bet I'd take!The thing I find baffling about this whole exercise is what the Japanese hope to achieve with it. Gold Standard (01/08/04; 14:39:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114888) Drug money laundering in Gold http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0108GoldSmuggling08-ON.html Looks like it's time to start painting the gold longs with the same brush as drug-runners!Snip>One of the largest gold refiners in the United States has agreed to plead guilty to participating in an illegal, $4.5 million money-laundering operation involving tainted gold from South America for at least four months, U.S. authorities said Thursday.Court documents showed Metalor USA Refining Corp. of North Attleboro, Mass., a subsidiary of Swiss-based Metalor Group, agreed to a single charge of illegally engaging in financial transactions in excess of $10,000. It agreed to a fine of $9 million - twice the amount of the disputed transactions - plus the forfeiture of $423,000 in profits.<end snipCould be an interesting development!Cheers, GS mdgc (01/08/04; 14:16:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114887) Kilo (01/08/04; 13:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114886) The way the Japanese (and Chinese) keep their currencies down (ie support the dollar) is not by printing their own fresh paper. They do it by using the greenback they have accummulated through their trade surpluses to buy US T-bill and bonds. If they did not do so, the dollar would fall further to attract other buyers of US Treasury paper from elsewhere (like Europe). Kilo (01/08/04; 13:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114886) Sir Steady...... Relatively speaking I'm not sure I completely following your thinking on this one, but it seems you are trying to make it more complicated than it really is.When one governments central bank prints (or creates) more of their own currency in order to buy the currency of another country, the entire dilution (inflation) situation is worsened by the fact that there is now TWICE as much currency in the pipeline. More is printed or created, lessening the value of the rest already in circulation.The gold supression schemes have little to do with the creation of currency by one nation in order to "prop up" or support the currency of another. It's still a balancing act, and still very much relative when looking at the big picture. That newely created "money" is used to buy the "money" of the other nation they are attempting to support. Eventually though, so much "money" is in the pipeline, the financial markets and holdings throughout the world, that the "value" of everything adjusts accordingly, i.e. "higher prices". Whether that new addition to the money supply is "just created" out of thin air or not, it has the same effect in the long term.Let's suppose for a moment that we are talking about Japan, and their creating billions or trillions of Yen to buy and help support the dollar. They are effectively destroying their own currency in favor of keeping the dollar "high". That does nothing to keep the Yen price of gold "low", but only to help keep the dollar price lower than what it might otherwise be. Whether the other central bank uses those "bought dollars" to turn around and buy gold is another matter, but it's all still a big balancing act in the long term, meaning it is all still "relative" from the currencies to gold to all forms of markets and goods. Great Albino Bat (01/08/04; 13:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 114885) Alo, M. Belgian!, Comment ca va?.... M. Belgian, a great detective like your fictional compatriot M. Hercule Poirot, but devoted to the biggest mysteries, those regarding gold, oil, dollars and warfare on world scale -What do you have to say about disarray within the EU, now that the "Stability Pact" has been jettisoned unilaterally by France and Germany, in the face of political imperatives?I read in the F.T. where the French prime minister Jean Pierre Raffarin has said, with regard to EU rules regarding maximum deficits permitted (Portugal and Ireland were punished): "France is not a run-of-the-mill country." In other words, Portugal and Ireland are just run-of-the-mill countries! Tut-tut! Such arrogant behaviour.There are supposed to be penalties for violating rules, but - who is going to enforce them on France and Germany?Well, not to disparage the Euro, M. Belgian, but, here we have a rather severe test of a currency, which after all is just a paper currency. The gold policy in Europe is positive, perhaps. But things do not look good at all for the long term for the Euro, it seems to me.The F.T. article seems to gloat over EU problems, too. It's the Brits, you know; that's how they are and have been for centuries - against anything really BIG in Europe.Trouble for the Euro means - brighter prospects for gold, in the last analysis. The Europeans seem to be quite satisfied with the Euro, and gold is off their radar screens, completely. But, shocks are on the way and there will be a wakeup of the more intelligent, not far down the road. Half-glad that $420 appears to hold. Would have liked to purchase more further down; perhaps unlikely?The GAB Melting Pot (01/08/04; 12:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114884) Japan to sell Treasuries for intervention - Nikkei http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/08/rtr1203446.html NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Japan plans to sell several trillion yen worth of U.S. Treasuries as early as next week to make cash available for its massive dollar buying intervention, Nikkei's Nihon Keizai Shimbun Friday edition reported.The reported sale of Treasuries appears to be a stop-gap measure for the Japanese Ministry of Finance to bolster its foreign exchange account until new legislation, due in late January, provides them with more cash for intervention.The Nikkei report said the government would buy back the bonds later in such a manner that the central bank will not suffer any losses from the arrangement.EOS.Are we witnessing the destruction of the Dollar-Yen-Gold carry trade??? The Nippons must be very heavy on the wrong side of the trade! USAGOLD Daily Market Report (01/08/04; 12:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114883) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.A nice recovery as the ECB and BOE leave rates unchanged making the U.S. a for place for foreign investment. Thus the US dollar weakened again and the precious metals gained. It will be a tough fight with Japanese foreign intervention and a bit of "talking down" the hard assets by the Wall Streeters who don't have a clue as to what they are talking about. Still, "portfolio insurance" is more important now than ever.Jon H. Warner Melting Pot (01/08/04; 12:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114882) U.S. oil inventories last week slid to their lowest levels since 1975 http://www.qctimes.com/internal.php?story_id=1022658&t=Business&c=31,1022658 U.S. oil inventories last week slid to their lowest levels since 1975, the government said Wednesday in a report that suggests tight supplies in the energy sector will last at least through winter..In another report, the government raised its estimates for household heating costs for the winter..Supplies of crude oil, which is used to make heating oil, gasoline, diesel and other fuels, fell 0.6 percent in the week ended Jan. 2 to 269 million barrels, the Energy Department said. That was down 3.5 percent from a year ago and was the lowest level since September 1975. a nation of one (01/08/04; 12:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 114881) Re: RS (01/08/04; 11:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114876) Interesting, isn't it? The entity that made the American debt possible, and the IMF, and the Washington post are all pretty much in the same pocket.It is possibly more than a coicidence, don't you think? Gandalf the White (01/08/04; 11:45:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114880) WELCOME Sir Gargoyle !!!! gargoyle (01/08/04; 11:36:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114879)test===Yes, it is working !NOW, let us hear about what you SEE, from that HIGH POSITION !<;-) gargoyle (01/08/04; 11:36:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114879) test test RS (01/08/04; 11:33:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 114878) Article: I.M.F says U.S. debt is a danger to world economy http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040108-9999_1b8imf.html The same article may be freely accessed at the above link...----------------------------------------"look out! .... it's a STAMPEDE !!!" Gandalf the White (01/08/04; 11:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 114877) THANK you Sir Soc for your Gold P&F Chart review !! <;-) Socrates964 (1/8/04; 05:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 114858)P&F 2I should perhaps add that P&F is not infallible and is valuable for giving a rough and ready guide to the question of how much 'potential energy' a stock has. Sometimes stocks defy gravity. E.g. look at a chart of Intel.Socrates964 (1/8/04; 04:25:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114857)POG-P&FSir Gandalf may disagree with me on details, but on the P&F chart the $431 peak did more or less confirm that gold had run out of steam for the time being. As you will remember from previous posts, this method did forecast the top pretty accurately when gold was in the 390s.===Yes, indeed the old "triangle" formation did project well the coming of $430. and now --- I too agree that it should now be followed by a SLIGHT correction, ----- BUT, my Crystal Ball tells me that something else is going to change the timing and that we shall see $460. before the SLIGHT correction arrives to visit ! ----- WHAT is "that something" you ask ?I forsee that the MASTERS of Stock Market "PUMP & DUMP" have just about run as far as they can and that the DOW and Ducky are at the PINNACLE ! ---- THAT will cause the P&F chart to continue UP without the SLIGHT correction that should be coming.We shall see soon !<;-) RS (01/08/04; 11:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114876) I.M.F says U.S. debt is a danger to world economy http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/08/b.../08FUND.html?hp Note: The above link is to the N.Y. Times online edition, which requires a subscription to access it.I saw this story linked from another website ( a non-gold discussion forum) and I have not verified the link.--------------------------------------------------Snip:I.M.F says U.S. debt is a danger to world economy WASHINGTON, Jan. 7 — With its rising budget deficit and ballooning trade imbalance, the United States is running up a foreign debt of such record-breaking proportions that it threatens the financial stability of the global economy, according to a report released Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund. Prepared by a team of I.M.F. economists, the report sounded a loud alarm about the shaky fiscal foundation of the United States, questioning the wisdom of the Bush administration's tax cuts and warning that large budget deficits pose "significant risks" not just for the United States but for the rest of the world.The report warns that the United States' net financial obligations to the rest of the world could be equal to 40 percent of its total economy within a few years — "an unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country," according to the fund, that could play havoc with the value of the dollar and international exchange rates.----------------------------------------I wish everyone here a prosperous 2004.rs Mr Gresham (1/8/04; 10:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114875) Ten-ton Tet Corrections: Short, shallow -- from here on?Fewer weak hands holding, former weak hands scrambling to get back onboard.I wonder how many years Vietnam has waited to make an announcement like this.The car is here. It's only business, Tessio... a nation of one (1/8/04; 10:41:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114874) to Arcticfox (1/8/04; 09:31:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114867) Thanks for the link. Goldilox (1/8/04; 10:07:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114873) Jump Spot Jump http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1 $425 breached - off to the races!!! Mr Gresham (1/8/04; 09:52:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114872) Mercantilism I think I remember in reading Adam Smith how he argues against mercantilism, where the exporting class of the nation takes control of the official reins, the military adventures, and the monetary system, all to profit its own enterprises at the expense of the economic efficiency which creates a platform of benefit for all.We are used to speaking of nations, "Japan", "China", as if they were each a single interest. Isn't it more likely that one faction, probably the exporters with their focused program and political influence, has taken control of the fiat monetary power in each country?(Is this what Europe has learned to resist, offering instead a recommendation of golden savings?)When Japan dilutes its conscientious savers' accounts by printing Trillions of yen, and passes the equivalent value over to US Treasury and US consumers, who benefits?Japanese (and European, and every other exporting land) employees are told their jobs depend on US consumers continuing to buy, buy, buy. But real purchasing power cannot be created except by real work creating real products. Here in the yen-avalanche, the average Japanese (the worker's retired parents?) is being drained on net to support this exporting flow. It was a pot too rich to pass up pilfering.If the real efficiency-net loss in all of this is, say, a drain of 10% of the nation's real capital per year, what do the exporters care, if 5% ends up in their pockets?Same with China, only it's their cheap labor force, being used as a work farm (even though they may feel prosperous on the way up) to put that 5% into the exporters' private pockets. ("Communism" -- what a great facade it's been!) Whatever happens to the nation as a whole is incidental, in their view. They "internationalized" their outlook -- and assets -- long ago!When savers -- and workers -- wake up to the game, probably long after it's stalled, and their losses become painfully visible, they will choose savings in a real asset, and paychecks in real money.Ever see any FT or USAToday or NYTimes articles on the end result of export flows? "Cui bono?" is the question they all ignore as they report the deficit figures. Deep Throat still has the last word in all this: Follow the money. Buongiorno! (1/8/04; 09:40:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 114871) Black Blade --market report Bravo! One of the best of many, IMO, esp. the last few paras. A very good summary.Included was mention of the use of 22-4 carat gold as both jewelry and money in some parts of the world. I have always thought that was a great idea. The ladies get something they like and can pinch off a link or two if needed to make a purchase. This product is unforgetable, beautiful, and lesser carat product simply pales by comparison. Mining officials have indicated to me that they are receptive to the idea of pouring some of their production into simple bangles, chains, whatever--but just do not have the interest or capability to market them. If there were sufficient interest, would our host be willing to consider marketing such product through his excellent network? Gold sold this way may bring a somewhat better price to the producer, and would be "off the market", thus reducing the need for forward sales. Is there a "win-win" situation here....thoughts? BUONGIORNO! Goldilox (1/8/04; 09:40:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114870) DX @ LWWhen the DX hit 85.7 and stalled, my cat jumped off my lap and went back to bed. I think he finds "dead cat bounces unamusing!" Henri (1/8/04; 09:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114869) Comatose http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/gif/ First two animations from the left are impressive Gold and blue ones. Yes this type of thing has the potential to disrupt not only markets but other stuff...looking for decent auroral displays. MK (1/8/04; 09:34:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114868) News & Views http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Updated. Arcticfox (1/8/04; 09:31:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114867) Great forex chart here..real time http://www.netdania.com/QuoteList.asp eom Waverider (1/8/04; 09:05:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 114866) USDX http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=5&t=l&a=2 Boy, that 41 billion fix by the Japanese certainly didn't last long - like heroin, another injection is needed mightly quickly! Goldilox (1/8/04; 08:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114865) Viet-Nam It's nice to see someone "buying" to stabilize the price. Everyone using that term before was wearing short shorts! Cometose (1/8/04; 08:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114864) solar flares Just got word the two large solar flares went off yesterday and we just had two more today so far.....affecting our electromagnetic field here.....perhaps market activity as well commish (1/8/04; 07:13:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114863) Oriental Wisdom Japan pours their money down a rat hole and Vietnam is increasing it's Gold holding. In the world of international trade even a 12 year old can tell you who is the wiser of the two. Melting Pot (1/8/04; 07:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114862) BOJ spent Y3 trln in intervention this week-source http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040107/markets_forex_intervention_1.html SNIPS:TOKYO, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Japan, worried that a strong yen could hurt an export-led recovery in its economy, spent about three trillion yen ($28.3 billion) in the first two days of this week to hold the currency down, a market source said on Wednesday. That figure compares with some 20 trillion yen ($188 billion) spent on yen-selling currency market intervention in the whole of 2003. The source said the Bank of Japan, acting on behalf of the Ministry of Finance (MOF), sold about 2.6 trillion yen on Monday. Despite the massive intervention, the dollar (JPY=) hit a three-year low of 106.06 yen later that day.About 400 billion yen was spent on Tuesday when the dollar touched a low of 106.09 yen, the source said.In late Tokyo trade on Wednesday, the dollar was holding just above that level, at around 106.20 yen.The Japanese authorities are thought by some analysts to be desperate to prevent the dollar from falling below 105 yen, since that would trigger heavy options-related selling of the U.S. unit, but traders say it is only a matter of time before it breaks through 106 yen.More @ http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040107/markets_forex_intervention_1.html"Japanese authorities are thought by some analysts to be desperate to prevent the dollar from falling below 105 yen, since that would TRIGGER heavy options-related selling of the U.S. unit"So a 105 YEN is where all hell breaks loose, eh??? I guess the Nippons are realizing that $28 billion just doesn't go as far as it did last year, does it? steady (1/8/04; 06:58:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114861) headrush! whew gold was getting to high smoking thru 420, had to take a munchie break and find some more good stuff for the next event! steady (1/8/04; 06:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 114860) kilo! its not all relative though,since we deal in a paper game where its just created, central banks can print the heck out of there currency and buy the heck out of the dllar and therefore suppressing the pog in there unit of account in order to let those i n the know buy and buy gold at cheap prices, when all elites in that specific country get as much gold they need then trhe buying of american dollars will stop , and the selling of them same dollars wil begin exasperating the situation, so its not all relatve at the moment when one can leveerrage there printing press to print faster to b uy what the fed wants to sell so tehy can keep there pog lower. accumulation time in those countries, silver especially in the south american countries, whose culpitability will be redeemed when they spring the argem bomb.anyway at teh moment its not all relative not when trhe printing press races are one to keep ones price of gold lower so the elite of said country get there fill, no wonder physical demand is rising so fast! steady (1/8/04; 06:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114859) MR REG HOWE hey i rember reading one f the dispatches about the unintended consequences of the suit and the financial markets.we do not need to apolgize for pusing everything that is fair honest just and noble. no we dont have to be if the consequences of there folly is a burning of the resturants and starting over well them lets all take the medicine and get it over with but we certainly dont have to offer apologies for others transgressions agains others trust otherwise you wouldnt have had to file the suit in the first place , which migh not have lead to alot of the stuff that you and your outstanding compatriots have unearthed for those who still want to uphold the personal standards of fairness, and level playing fields for all. Socrates964 (1/8/04; 05:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 114858) P&F 2 I should perhaps add that P&F is not infallible and is valuable for giving a rough and ready guide to the question of how much 'potential energy' a stock has. Sometimes stocks defy gravity. E.g. look at a chart of Intel. Socrates964 (1/8/04; 04:25:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114857) POG-P&F Sir Gandalf may disagree with me on details, but on the P&F chart the $431 peak did more or less confirm that gold had run out of steam for the time being. As you will remember from previous posts, this method did forecast the top pretty accurately when gold was in the 390s.Theory as I interpret it (a la Dorsey) suggests that we need to go 3 boxes down, which on current form, means a move down to below 412 (intraday) is needed to recharge gold's batteries. Alternatively, we need to rally to somewhere between 432 and 436 and then come back to 416. At this point, a brief dip to 41i.50 or so seems more likely. Assuming this happens, we then have to rally back above 428 for the signal that will take us as high as 451.90.At least that's what the P&F chart is telling me.Now, in the greater Fibonacci scheme of things, we are still looking very good in that we trashed the 415 level in style. This means that we are still on track for a 127% retracement of the 415 to 255 downmove that takes us to 458 (the 127% level. This is only a minor resistance level, which once broken sets us up for the 161.8% level at 514. Sundeck (1/8/04; 03:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114856) Vietnam authorises more gold imports http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1517930-6078-0,00.html Snip:"HANOI - Vietnam's central bank says it has authorised the import of an additional 10 tonnes of gold during the first quarter of this year to stabilise gold prices which have soared in recent months. "This decision was made last week by the State Bank of Vietnam because of the rise of gold prices on the world market," said an official from the bank's foreign currency management department. He refused to reveal the total 2004 import quota awarded by the bank to traders. Vietnam imports 70% of its gold requirements every year. "Sundeck: Dang! Suddenly everyone is after the stuff... Sundeck (1/8/04; 03:26:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114855) Golden future for gold in China http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2004-01/08/content_296852.htm Good read on golden happenings in China... Knallgold (1/8/04; 02:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114854) euro intervention There is lot of talk in Europe about the pain level of the euro -on NTV one journalist wondered as it was already declared at 1.20 weeks ago,now it has been postponed to 1.30 by the experts "maybe we just shouldn't believe in the experts anymore" she said in a bright moment.What follows is usually talk about intervention by CB's (lowering IR,buying $'s).Sometimes it sounds a bit like begging-what a comfortable position the ECB is in!Even though I doubt they will buy Dollars,I guess they have Another plan to relieve pains.Ever heard of the Gold valve?FOA teached us Gold will serve as an alternative to the euro,preventing too many $'s chasing the euro to economically unhealthy levels.The mainstreamers surely will miss this scenario completely... have you noticed the statement recently about the US trade deficit now its own problem?Sounded like a preparation to me then.Plus we know the paper Gold market is driving in the red zones.Probably a good time for a "physical only market" relieve? Operative (1/8/04; 01:11:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114853) @ Goldilox Thanks For the Link That last link is a keeper. Adding it to my Research Folder and can see will have something to do this coming weekend. Good find. Operative (1/8/04; 00:50:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 114852) @ BB & Comatose RE; Yellowstone Area http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/ Just got on this puter, but noticed there was some quakes today near Yellowstone. Sorry if discussed earlier, but wanted to give you a heads up asap. Goldilox (1/8/04; 00:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 114851) Awesome eBook site http://www.web-books.com/eLibrary/Business.htm I just found this site in a search for eBooks. Links to all kinds of stuff. Goldilox (1/8/04; 00:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114850) Daily Reckoning - Bonner http://www.dailyreckoning.com snippit:Bill Bonner, back in England: *** From the King Report: "The dollar is in the toilet and gold is rallying on that jackass Fed Gov. Bernanke's comments that the risk of a dollar crisis is low and it's misleading to value the dollar only vs. the euro. The market construes the dolt's remarks as either the Fed is signaling that it wants to keep rates low for the foreseeable future and they're not concerned about the level of the dollar or Fed officials are clueless fools. In either case, one doesn't want dollar exposure. These clowns need some real world business experience."The dollar topped in Feb 1985 but traded slightly lower until mid-Sept 1985 when it collapsed after the Plaza Accord. Stocks crashed just over two years later in mid- October 1987. But stocks in 1985 were the mirror image of the dollar. They traded slightly higher until the dollar collapse in mid-Sept and then more than doubled by August 24, 1987. As we keep harping, stocks love inflation and a collapsing currency for awhile, but later there is hell to pay. 30 months after the Feb '85 dollar peak, stocks crashed. Or to look at it another way, 23 months after the dollar tanking commenced, stocks peaked."As we forecast months ago, we'd look for a stock market peak in January and then a rebound rally in March that should approach if not exceed the January high. But after that, look out."This view also coincides with the presidential cycle. Wall Street pundits stridently trumpeted the bullish propensity of the third year of a president's first term, but they've been silent about what ensues. That's because the following year, the election year, typically has a top in Q1, a decline into late spring, a sharp rally into the conventions, and then a severe decline that commences after the conventions."Goldilox:I seem to remember after the hoopla of 2000 elections, the Nasdaq belly flopped to the tune of a sixty-something percent haircut, followed by an additional 50% "trim" the following year. Look out below!!! Druid (1/8/04; 00:05:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114849) Black Blade (1/7/04; 23:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114845) http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2004/0104.html "Black Blade: The debt keeps soaring and more will be required to finance the growing debt. But we can just inflate our way out leaving the Japanese and Chinese holding the bag. ;-)"Druid: BB, I can't imagine Japan and China or any other country for that matter be willing targets of an inflation hose aimed right at them. At some point, they become a conduit for the newly inflated dollars, coupled with a portion of their existing dollar reserves, and feed directly towards the metals. At this point, the jig is up and your thoughtful warnings of being prepared come into serious play. Also, in addition to your excellent comments and analysis on oil and gas, if you hadn't the opportunity to read the posted URL, I thought you would enjoy it. It's a great read. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.