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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/8/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (05/08/02; 23:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 75259) Andersen: 2,000 Workers to Join Deloitte http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020508/financial_andersen_deloitte_2.html Snippit:CHICAGO (Reuters) - Embattled accounting firm Andersen LLP said on Wednesday about 2,000 of its workers will join rival Deloitte & Touche, as it reshapes itself while facing a criminal charge from its role as auditor for bankrupt energy trader Enron Corp. Black Blade: That's 2,000 rats jumping off the burning derelict Arthur Andersen. Black Blade (05/08/02; 23:28:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 75258) Louisiana-Pacific to Cut 4,400 Jobs http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020508/manufacturing_louisiana_pacific_3.html Snippit:PORTLAND (Reuters) - Loss-making building products company Louisiana-Pacific Corp. announced a radical restructuring on Wednesday to cut debt that included the sale of several businesses and the loss of 4,400 jobs. The company said it would divest 935,000 acres of timberland in three states, along with its lumber and industrial panels operations, in a move to maintain investment grade credit ratings and focus on profitable businesses. Black Blade: Logging company whittles down work force. Sending off more to the growing "Bone Pile". Goldfly (05/08/02; 23:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75257) YGM.... a link http://iafrica.com/news/sa/938703.htm FWIW RobotGuy (05/08/02; 23:23:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 75256) Dear Golden Bear, An opinion in this forum,to me,is just as valid as a fact. As far as I'm concerned there is nobody who might predict the future accurately no matter what calculation you choose to endeavor upon. E = m c/squared is a formula that humans have accepted as truth, but in reality it is a formula that will be proven wrong before long. I am very greatful of the opinion of my fellow human, as to me it is just as valid as a written law. Thank-you for your continued support.RobotGuy. The Invisible Hand (05/08/02; 23:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75255) Look at the title! http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Market+Summary&content_idx=11468 Market Summary, by Rob PeeblesAtlas shrugs, stocks rocketMay 8, 2002---Is it really that near? Black Blade (05/08/02; 23:00:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75254) Barrick dismisses rumors of Gold Fields deal http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_ge.jsp?section=news&news_id=reu-n08379246&feed=reu&date=20020508&cat=USMARKET Snippit:TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), which has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold producer through a series of acquisitions over the past 20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it was poised to swell further by taking over a South African producer. "The rumors about South Africa are just that. While we assess opportunities and we are familiar with opportunities, they are just rumors," Randall Oliphant, president of Toronto-based Barrick told shareholders at the company's annual meeting.Earlier this week a prominent mining Internet site reported that Barrick and AngloGold Ltd. (ANGJ), the third-largest gold company, would team up to buy Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ), the fourth-largest producer. "These rumors are creative, but it's just somebody creating this stuff at home in their basement," Oliphant told reporters after the meeting.Black Blade: As I had pointed out to Tim Wood on the miningweb.com, the rumor was senseless as Barrick does not have the means to takeover Goldfields and such a merger would not likely pass muster with the largely anti-hedge shareholder base. Besides, the Goldfields share price has rocketed higher while the Barrick share price has barely budged by comparison. No Goldfields shareholder wants that Barrick albatross hanging around their neck. balzac (05/08/02; 22:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 75253) Inconsistencies ??? An interesting observation: Dow up 300 pts,Gold down $3.00.However my 4 PM Funds lost only 2 cents.Just previously when gold jumped $3.00 , the Fundswent up 25 to 30 cents. Explain that one. PLS.Balzac. Black Blade (05/08/02; 22:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75252) Price rally puts gold hedging out of fashion http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3WZ2VBY0D Snippit: Gold companies are famously divided into hedgers and non-hedgers. Those in the hedging camp have been on the defensive lately, while the others are gloating. The sustained rise in the gold price and a rosier outlook for the metal have made selling forward less attractive to both producers and shareholders. Black Blade: The day of the hedger is over. It's the dawn of a new age where hedgers are irrelevant. Black Blade (05/08/02; 22:33:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75251) YGM That's a story from South Africa. Black Blade (05/08/02; 22:31:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 75250) Ex Nippon Mining & Metals workers arrested in gold fraud http://asia.news.yahoo.com/020507/kyodo/d7jbpblo1.html Snippit: Police on Tuesday arrested former employees of Nippon Mining & Metals Co. and scrap suppliers in Oita City on suspicion of defrauding the company out of more than 300 million yen by misrepresenting gold levels in scrap it bought. In the scam, they took samples from delivered scrap in September and October last year to add gold to them, creating the impression that the overall gold content was higher, according to the police. Nippon Mining & Metals decides the purchase price of scrap based on the gold content of samples. An in-house investigation by the firm found the overall gold content of the scrap was lower than the samples, prompting it to file a complaint with the police at the end of last year. Black Blade: Going to prison over a "barbarous relic"? What's the point? Hmmm… YGM (05/08/02; 22:25:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 75249) Black Blade 521 KG of Flour Gold...... Well now I'm drooling...The fineness would make it almost pure Gold....@ 2.2 lbs p/kg uuuugh! I shall have nightmares tonite....Where the heck was this place Welkom? Black Blade (05/08/02; 22:19:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 75248) The Barbarous Relic Files – 521kg of gold dust seized Welkom - The Free State's infamous G-hostel near Welkom, and parts of Moletsi Hostel, were raided on Tuesday and 521kg of gold dust were confiscated, police said. Police, intent on ending the hostels' illegal melting activities, also confiscated gas cylinders, scales and other equipment used to process the gold concentrate. Superintendent Sam Sesing said although nobody was arrested during the Operation, called "Shapa", police were dedicated to dealing a hard blow to gold theft and would continue their raid on Wednesday. "G-hostel will never be a safe haven for criminals anymore. Disruptive actions like Operation Shapa will be sent from time to time and will hit the criminals where it hurts most," said provincial commissioner Moranodi Gaobepe.Black Blade: The police sure waste a lot of time over a "barbarous relic" destined for the dustbin of history. Hmmm… mikal (05/08/02; 21:50:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 75247) My, my. Asian eye. Something seems the better buy. (AFX-Focus) 2002-05-09 03:10 GMT: Forex - Dollar eases in late morning Tokyo after earlier short-coveringTOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar eased in late morning after sharp gains made overnight on short-covering...... "The market was obviously short the dollar. It's only a correction so far," said Nami Ito of the forex division at Barclays Bank...................Ito noted recent talk that Japanese portfolio investors may have started to send funds overseas for the new fiscal year after disappointing speculators earlier in April."Some say that, but we haven't seen much yet," she said."People are talking about Moody's. Some say that if they cut by two notches, that will be the end ... and the dollar will go down," she added.Moody's said it may cut Japan's sovereign rating by up to two notches, adding that an early decision may be made, with speculation that an announcement is likely this month.....click USAGOLD news link for more YGM (05/08/02; 21:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 75246) Canuck..... What Profits? My man if I had 50,000 oz of Au and had a $10.00 profit I'd probably sell and forget all this financial crap and crime perpetrated by scumbag bankers...Kinda get on with what's left of my life @ age 53. I'm as much of a cynic when it comes to the power of the Bankers and the Elite over our lives as I am the optimist on the future of Gold. The last few years have bin an emotional roller coaster for us all....Now as I'm no longer involved in Mining or playing the SM, I'm kinda content to wait & see if all I am optimistic about (Gold) will win over the cynical side (Bankers & Scumbags). I think I'll just rattle along & do my little part til the SHTF & the Car-tel runs out of gas.........If anyone can play the swings in PMs and the SM & win w/o having a nervous breakdown...Well more power to them.....As I've mentioned in past "GREED IS IT'S OWN EXECUTIONER""PHYSICAL GOLD" Buy It, Hide It, & carry on with life! Canuck (05/08/02; 20:58:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 75245) I don't get it Checking the Kitco chart for the billionth time today, one sees that gold powered to a New York, three day high of $312.60 at 11:15 where it was whacked four bucks. Unlike Tuesday it was unable to recover.If I recall Cisco released last night afterhours and while the Dow surged ahead this morning so did gold.So, checking the graph again, what would explain a $3.60 surge from 8:45 to 11:15 followed by a 4 dollar crash from 11:15 to noon?So given that Cisco was a known and the SM was a known what explains the sudden reversal except for blatant manipulation. Ask yourself this, given that everything else was in a constant linear slope, what causes gold to reverse in so much a drastic fashion at such an obscure time of day?What is that? What happened at 11:15 that was so anti-gold?? GOLDENPROPHECY (05/08/02; 20:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75244) mahendra sharma SINCE MAHENDRA SHARMA SAYS GOLD WILL REACH $350 BY MID YEAR 2002, I DO NOT THINK WE HAVE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT THIS LITTLE CORRECTION. AGAIN HE WAS RIGHT ON NASDAQ AS WLL.HIS WEBSITE HAS MORE DETAILS Canuck (5/8/02; 20:41:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 75243) Ten o'clock news just on Here's the lead:"Stock markets had their best day in a long, long time. Housing starts were down 10.4% in April and 2 of the country's banks have lowered long term rates by 15/100 of a percent."Forget all the conjecture and speculation, this is a three-fold reversal:a)SMb)housing startsc)trend of long-term interest ratesWhat does this mean? Banks don't reverse trend all of a sudden. mikal (5/8/02; 20:37:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75242) Media spinning with a new twist-"Cover your backside" http://www.business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=500922002 Say it isn't so! Yes, you've done it again. Reporting from both sides of your mouth. Never mind, these days you're running par for the course. But this one is so gold bullish, it's a wonder where you ever came up with that title: "Where dollar leads, Euro follows", LOL! Click link or USAGOLD News Link mikal (5/8/02; 20:11:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 75241) Bullish story from a stealth headline http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&t... Media speculation is yet again heralding a totally new currency environment! You gotta love the second half of this: 05/09 02:02Dollar, Little Changed, May Extend Gain After Rally in Stocks.....snippit.......................................The U.S. currency hovered at 128.95 yen after touching 129.07, its highest since April 25. Against the euro, it was little changed at 90.47 U.S. cents, after having its biggest gain in 3 1/2 months yesterday........................... ...``The current level is likely to persuade Japanese companies to buy the yen,´´ said Kenji Takei, a currency sales vice president at the Tokyo branch of Societe Generale SA. The yen also may be helped by expectations a report due today will show Japan's index of coincident economic indicators in March rose to the level that signals growth, suggesting the nation's recession has passed the worst. The index, which measures current conditions by tracking indicators such as power usage, wholesale sales and production, probably rose to 50 for the first time in 15 months, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The report is due at 2:00 p.m. Japan time. Latest reports showed March Japanese factory production rose for a second month, the jobless rate unexpectedly fell, and salaried worker-led households' spending rose. In other trading, the dollar was little changed at 1.6087 Swiss francs and at $1.4563 per the British pound.END...... Yes, it looks like your writers ended up far from where they started, Mr. Bloomberg. Black Blade (5/8/02; 20:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 75240) Flap over gold derivative "firings" http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256BB30072242F?OpenDocument Snippit: PRINCETON, New Jersey Gold bug extraordinaire Bill Murphy reported in a circular to readers of the LeMetropole Web site that JP Morgan Chase's derivatives operations are in chaos. The bank flatly denies the claims and Miningweb has verified that at least one of the executives said to have been "fired" is still on staff. Donald Eckert, global bullion risk manager at JPMC New York, was contemptuous of the claims and says nobody has been fired in the derivatives or bullion trading departments. He also denied Murphy's report that JPMC managing director of global commodities, Dinsa Mehta, was axed "two weeks ago". Eckert says Mehta volunteered for retirement after the global forex options, forex and gold trading desks were rationalized into a single department. "He was not fired at all, he chose to resign."Another wrinkle is Mehta's involvement in the Enron fiasco. The House Committee on Energy and Commerce in March called on JPMC to provide copies of any correspondence involving Mehta and Enron's Mahonia subsidiary. When Enron collapsed, Mahonia owed JPMC billions of dollars, which insurers are now refusing to cover because they say the energy transactions were fraudulent. Mehta's precise role in Mahonia is unclear, but he is said to have boasted to colleagues about the fees the transactions generated for JPMC, and which presumably translated into handsome bonuses. The structure of the energy trades was nearly identical to gold hedging with which Mehta would have been especially familiar.Indeed, Mehta is well known as an arch proponent of hedging and says routinely that gold has been "stripped of its monetary attribute by the globalisation of the international financial system" and that gold has lost its "crisis currency" role. Black Blade: A lot of damage control perhaps. Mehta left to "pursue other interests". It is apparent that miningweb.com has served as apologists for the hedge fund miners for some time. Black Blade (5/8/02; 19:44:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 75239) Experts predict fuel crunch for developing countries http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=143231 Snippit: HOUSTON, May 8 -- Energy demand is growing in developing countries that may be hindered by the lack of investment in exploiting their own energy resources, said a panel of industry experts at the opening of the 4-day Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. That demand is growing fastest in China and India, with their burgeoning populations. But in focusing on India and China, "we may be forgetting other parts of the world," warned Matthew R. Simmons, president and founder of Simmons & Co. International, who mediated the invitation-only 2002 OTC Energy Roundtable on Monday. The combined populations of the 13 member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Mexico, have escalated to some 600 million today from 180 million in 1970, said Simmons at a press conference following that 4-hour session."By 2030, their [combined] population could be larger than [that of] India," he said. "History shows that countries only begin to slow their population growth after they become prosperous." Regions of Asia—China, India, and South Korea—and of Central and South America will be hot spots for future demand growth, with consuming patterns increasingly similar to that of industrialized nations, EIA officials predicted. Those areas are expected to account for about half of the projected new increment in world energy consumption and 83% of the increase for developing countries. He [Simmons] said, "Over the last 30 years, world oil demand has grown by about 25 million b/d, and maybe 60% of that has come from offshore." But maintaining that level of supply over the next 20 years will be difficult at best, especially from conventional sources. "Many [of the roundtable participants] said, 'Thank goodness for unconventional oil resources, such as oil sands,'" Simmons reported. Such resources will become a bigger factor in supplying the world's growing demand in the future, "unless demand peters out, which means our economy will have petered out." Black Blade: With most Oil fields in decline, growing populations, modernization and industrialization, most Third world nations will demand their "fair share" of the Earth's dwindling energy supply. Costs are rising and if we must depend on costly unconventional energy supply we will never again see the economic growth of the past several years. Canuck (5/8/02; 19:40:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 75238) BB just nailed it Oil is at $27 and NG is at $3.75.The 'energy' bears say there is a $5 war premium built in. So let's be bearish, oil $22, NG $3.25.The economy has lots of room to rock, the failure zone last time was $37, $10. Will Russian oil play a role this time? Will Canadian NG play a role this time?Is energy a stopper again this time, probably, is gold a 'walker' until then or do we see a sub-300 gold again?Curious, devil's advocate if you will? Canuck (5/8/02; 19:26:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75237) @ YGM ..and all those investments banks, they will be cleared of all wrongdoings. An article in the Globe and Mail alluded to ML's plea bargaining already. Enron and AA will be slapped 'on the wrist'.I guess what I am saying is, "to what danger is the USD in at this present moment?"Really? Black Blade (5/8/02; 19:21:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75236) Crude Oil Jumps as Israel Considers Response to Suicide Bombing http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNlgLhbaQ3J1ZGUg Snippit:New York, May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil jumped to a one- month high after a suicide bombing that killed 15 Israelis renewed concern that escalating violence might disrupt supplies from the Middle East, which pumps a third of the world's oil. Inventory Decline Oil prices also rose after the American Petroleum Institute reported a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. inventories. Supplies last week fell 4.5 million barrels, or 1.4 percent, to 321.1 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the report expected a decline of about 750,000 barrels. Black Blade: The Oil inventory level is not much different from last year's energy crisis levels. Meanwhile Oil hovers just below $28.00/bbl and NG is at $3.75 Mbtu. Canuck (5/8/02; 19:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 75235) @ YGM Best to take profits now.I have been watching the POG for 4 years now. IT IS A FUNCTION OF THE US DOLLAR. I am sure there is a linear equation of POG/USD/YEN/POUND/EURO/FRANC.Study that question and answer yes or no before proceeding to fact #2. If yes proceed to #2.Gold is inverse to the USD, so should the USD rise gold will fall. We witnessed that large today. Should there be a demand for gold and a supply of dollars gold will rise. We saw a frenzy in Japan in Jan. and Feb. but there are no stories in March or April. Demand has wained. If yes proceed to #3.The economic recovery is about as clear as the non-economic recovery. Stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, who have taken a 60-80% beating, as a whole, have been trending the 1500-1800 mark for a long, long time. It is entirely possible that the bottom is in for tech shares? If yes, proceed to #4.Let's say, for the most part that gold stocks have doubled (100%). Let's say that tech stocks have been quartered (25%). By virtue of the CONTRARIAN definition, should we buy tech stocks? By virtue of currency valuation and import/export imperatives must Japan and its equals export to maintain economic viability. How could a valuation of say, 100 yen to the dollar possible exist? If yes, proceed to #5.As a student of demographics, and the reader of "DOW, 36,000" I understand that governments will twist the numbers in a grotesque fashion to acheive the results demanded. Governments must provide 'old-timers' will mega-fiat-bucks in as little as 10 years. Everyone must be rich for there will be no hand-outs. If yes, proceed to #6.There is no alternative to the USD. Not at this point. Gold is cool but not today. The world is dollarized, there are trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed. Gold had its run but things were not GRIM enough. The US would not BLOW its international standing over 2 huge skyscrapers. The rowdy Islamic community will be beaten into submission, Iraq may or may not take a major hit. Maybe it should? It would be in the best interests for the US to whittle Hussein back a notch or 7. A major chartered bank lowered long-term interests rates today, usually the major CDN chartered banks follow suit. Why would CDN banks lower mortgage rates today? Well, one housing starts fell off a cliff today. (10.4%) They are not worried about inflation? They sense a switch, mortage money demand is waining, money is moving somewhere? JPM had a stellar day today, contrary to the isssues raised last night. The market expects JPM to increase profits. A shift back to the bubble?Take profits now?? Black Blade (5/8/02; 19:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 75234) Gold prices seen set to climb further http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020508&dateOffset=&hub=headdex&title=Headlines&cache_key=headdexBusiness¤t_row=27&start_row=27&num_rows=1 Snippit:Investing in gold and gold stocks has provided rich returns so far in 2002, but one Bay Street strategist believes the yellow metal has not finished its run yet. David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., sees potential for a run-up in the gold price to as high as $325 (U.S.) an ounce, and a further 10-per-cent gain in the shares of gold producers. "Consider that a conservative call," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note to clients yesterday. Mr. Rosenberg says gold serves as good, low-cost portfolio insurance. Black Blade: No argument from me. Black Blade (5/8/02; 18:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 75233) Merrill, Goldman Bond Default Insurance Soars: Rates of Return http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=APNhOpxZLTWVycmls Snippit:New York, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., are among Wall Street firms that may pose growing risks for bond investors. The cost of insuring Merrill Lynch's $71 billion of notes and bonds against default has jumped 80 percent since last month. That's when New York state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer began an investigation into Wall Street's conflicts of interest between analyst research and investment banking. Other securities firms' credit default swaps are also rising. Black Blade: Some analysts claim that the improvement in financial share prices are based on the rumor of a deal between NY state AG Spitzer and Merrill Lynch that will allow the Wall Street Investment firm to pay a fine without admitting guilt. That does not mean that the other 19 states now seeking redress will follow through and there still exists the numerous lawsuits from investors that are sure to follow. canamami (5/8/02; 18:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75232) "Day of Reckoning" is coming (looming U.S. credit crisis) http://www.canada.com/halifax/dailynews/columnists/story.asp?id={29B55F66-3829-4285-B6BA-AC2AD7E3DABA} This is from Brian Flemming of the Halifax Daily News:'Day of reckoning' comingLooming deficit crisis in U.S. bad news for world's economy By Brian Flemming The Daily News Last week, in the world of G7 economies, there was good news and not-so-good news. The best news for Canada was its return to grace and favour in the bond market. Moody's gave our bonds an AAA rating for the first time in nearly a decade. Too bad we're not issuing new bonds any more.Also, with the growth in Canada's GDP plus paydowns of our debt, Canada's indebtedness is approaching 50 per cent of GDP. Finally, this country is within spitting distance of the 40 per cent mark, considered by most economists to be an appropriate and safe level for an economy like Canada's.The not-so-good news emerged from America. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) claimed the American current account deficit — borrowing from abroad to cover domestic budgetary shortfalls — now represents one of the largest risks to the world's economy.The hitherto bulletproof U.S. greenback hit some six-month lows against major currency competitors. The euro climbed through the 90 to the dollar mark for the first time in many moons. Even the long-suffering loonie finally began to show strength against the mighty American currency.Louis Crandall, economist for a leading American bond market research firm, said, "The day of reckoning is certainly coming ... I've been looking for it for quite some time." What Crandall and the IMF are worried about is the fact that the American economy, to keep cranking along at current levels, needs to borrow almost two billion bucks a day (!) from foreigners. So far, these foreigners still seem to have an appetite for greenbacks.For years now, major foreign investors have gorged themselves on American assets — stocks, bonds, real estate. Smaller players have stuffed American dollars under mattresses or in cookie jars. Even the international drug market has helped; it runs entirely on American currency that will never return to the U.S.If, for any reason, those habits of investing or saving of American dollars should shift, the current account deficit would then have to shrink. That, in a nutshell, is what happened in Argentina last year. U.S. dollars evaporated and, of course, the Argentinians had no way of printing American dollars. (Canada, in stark contrast to the U.S., has a huge international current account surplus.)A sudden shrinkage of the American current account deficit would trigger a collapse in domestic demand (i.e. cause a recession) and/or would push the dollar down from its current pinnacle.The Economist last week quoted a study of current account deficits in developed economies from Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed found that "deficits usually began to reverse when they exceeded five per cent of GDP. And this adjustment was accompanied by an average fall in the nominal exchange rate of forty per cent, along with a sharp slowdown in GDP growth."America's economy is fast approaching the five per cent level. That's the "day of reckoning" Crandall is referring to; it's expected to arrive in December. Morgan Stanley says it could even reach six per cent by 2003. That, said The Economist, would be the largest deficit run by any G7 economy in 30 years.American treasury secretary Paul O’Neill, one of George W. Bush's weakest cabinet ministers, poopoos these concerns and says the current account deficit is a "meaningless concept." That's what British chancellor of the exchequer Nigel Lawson used to say until his economy tanked in the late 80s.What has changed recently in America has been the passage of a Bush tax cut for the wealthy plus a post-9/11 increase in defence spending. Suddenly the Clinton domestic surplus has evaporated like the morning dew. And if the stock market is performing its historic function — namely, giving a six-month-out snapshot of the economy — then even the most dedicated Bushies should be sweating. The Dow can't stay over 10,000; p/e ratios are still high; Nasdaq has returned to the basement.On top of that, the increasingly protectionist Bush administration — driven almost entirely by short-term domestic political advantage — may soon give foreign lenders pause too.Should Canadians worry too? Or just exult in the coming ascent of the loonie? I think we should do both. Any current account deficit crisis in America would cause major disruption in Canadian exports. On the other hand, the loonie could finally move to where The Economist's famed, and accurate, Big Mac Index says it should be: at about 80 U.S. cents. Speed the day. Waverider (5/8/02; 18:35:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 75231) IDF massing troops near Gaza in preparation for retaliatory strike http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=161125&contrassID=1&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=0 Snippit:"The IDF began massing forces on the border with the Gaza Strip late Wednesday night, in preparation for a retaliatory operation following the suicide bomb attack in Rishon Letzion which killed 15 people."Waverider: Hipplebeck - "what's Sharon going to do?" I've found the newslink above, the "Haaretz" the best for news on Isreal, and the most current as it has frequent updates. Cheers! TownCrier (5/8/02; 17:54:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75230) Today's rally in stock prices... http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/10021533.html Simple short covering ranks right up there among the excuses.Excerpt from TheStreet.com:-------In a rally of near biblical proportions, what had been last for so long was first today. Still, it is only the true believers who are convinced that it was anything more than a token offering to the long-dead bull market....a great many market participants believe a rally was primed to occur at the slightest provocation.Heading into today's session, the Nasdaq Composite had closed down in 14 of the past 16 sessions and the S&P 500 in 10 of 12, noted Jeffrey Saut, chief equity strategist at Raymond James. Meanwhile most major averages were well below various moving averages and thus oversold."Consequently, the market was set up [as] complacent shorts had crowded into the theater and Cisco shouted 'fire,'" Saut quipped...."In markets like this, err on being conservative," he said. "Fundamentals haven't changed one iota. I still think it's a muted [economic] recovery, and stocks are not priced for muted."----------The healthy portfolio is the one that is prudently diversified. Call USAGOLD / Centennial for help with the gold component.R. YGM (5/8/02; 17:52:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 75229) THOSE BEING INVESTIGATED>>>>>>> Previous Link @ Energy Commerce Inquiry MERRILL LYNCH,CITIGROUP,GOLDMAN SACHS,CREDIT SUISSE BOSTON,JP MORGAN CHASE,LEHMAN BROS,MORGAN STANLEY,DEUTSCHE BANK,STANDARD & POORS,MOODY'S,UBS PAINE WEBBER.***Also noteworthy is the Bush Whitehouse is in full support of hearings/inquiries and of criminal charges of "ANY" Manipulations......ENRON is/was involved the the Gold Markets Manipulation scam as sure as there's sky above!There was just too much collusion for them to resist!An awful lot going on at the present, so much as to give one a headache trying to sort & keep up....Black Blades "BONE PILE" will feed all the Bears in N America before it's over.........YGM. Pizz (5/8/02; 17:40:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75228) Aristotle Darn good ramblings. YGM (5/8/02; 17:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75227) Rich.....JPM Chase, Dinsa Menta. Enron http://energycommerce.house.gov/107/news/03072002_508.htm Energy and Commerce Committee Seeks Details From Wall Street on Enron Washington (March 6) - As part of their continuing investigation into the financial collapse of Enron Corporation, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Billy Tauzin (R-LA), along with Ranking Member John Dingell (D-MI), Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman James Greenwood (R-PA) and Subcommittee Ranking Member Peter Deutsch (D-FL), today called on more than a dozen Wall Street investment and credit-rating firms to turn over records linked to Enron and its related partnerships, as well as services provided for the bankrupt company.(Attached below are copies of the letters sent today to more than a dozen Wall Street investment and credit-rating firms)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HERE'S THE LETTER TO JP MORGAN/CHASE.*NOTE* DINSA MENTA NAMED AND ALL RECORDS REQUESTED...The rest of the letters are linked...BTW...Many if not most named in inquiry are part of the Gold Suppression Cabal..FWIW..YGM--------------------March 6, 2002Mr. William B. Harrison, Jr.President and Chief Executive OfficerJ.P. Morgan Chase & Co.270 Park AvenueNew York, NY 10017-2070 Dear Mr. Harrison:The Committee on Energy and Commerce is investigating matters relating to the financial collapse of Enron Corp. ("Enron"). To date, the Committee's investigation has revealed or learned, among other things, about information relating to the manipulation of Enron's financial statements to artificially inflate Enron's stock value; reports that Enron accounted for large loans from financial institutions as financial hedges instead of debt on its balance sheet in order to mask its weakening financial condition (Enron's "derivative contracts"); evidence developed by the Committee that for financial institutions, future business with Enron, or the lack thereof, was linked to investment in Enron's "special purpose entities" ("SPEs") or related partnerships; and, that individuals employed by various financial institutions were offered the opportunity to, and did invest in, these SPEs and Enron-related partnerships controlled by Andrew Fastow, Enron's former Chief Financial Officer, and/or Michael Kopper, namely, LJM Cayman LP (LJM1) and LJM2 Co-Investment LP (LJM2).To assist in the Committee's investigation, please provide, pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, the following information to the Committee by no later than Wednesday, March 20, 2002:Please list all securities underwriting, advisory services, including, but not limited to, mergers and acquisitions advisory services, and credit facilities services provided by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., and/or Stoneville Aegean Ltd. for Enron or its SPEs or related partnerships from 1997 to present. Please list the date of each contract or other commitment for such services, the fee or compensation earned by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. with respect to each such contract, and the date and amount of the underlying transactions. Did J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. invest in, or otherwise provide financing for, any Enron SPEs or related partnerships, including, but not limited to, the Raptor and Whitewing entities, the Marlin Water Trust, the Osprey Trust and related SPEs, the Nighthawk SPE, the Firefly SPE, the Sequoia SPE, the Choctaw SPE, the Cherokee SPE, the Cheyenne SPE, Chewco Investments, LP, JEDI I and II, LJM1 and LJM2? If so, please provide the dates and amounts of the investments or financing, who authorized them, and the fees or compensation earned by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Did any J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director invest in any Enron SPEs or related partnerships, including, but not limited to, the Raptor and Whitewing entities, the Marlin Water Trust, the Osprey Trust and related SPEs, the Nighthawk SPE, the Sequoia SPE, the Choctaw SPE, the Cherokee SPE, the Cheyenne SPE, Chewco Investments, LP, JEDI I and II, LJM1 and LJM2? If so, please identify the individuals making the investments, and the date and amount of each investment, and state J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s policy regarding investments by its employees, officers, or directors in entities for which J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. provided investment services or advice. Please provide a copy of this policy to the Committee. Committee interviews with, and testimony from, Jeffrey McMahon and Sherron Watkins, as well as other information learned by the Committee, indicate that several financial institutions and their employees claimed to have received promises, inferences, or suggestions from Enron and/or LJM employees that the financial institutions would receive future Enron business if they invested in the LJM partnerships. Please state whether any officer or employee of Enron or the LJM partnerships made any guarantee, promise, suggestion, innuendo or other communication that suggests or otherwise indicates that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would receive future business from Enron, or that the likelihood of receiving such business would increase, if J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. or its employees, officers, or directors invested in, or provided financing to, any Enron SPE or related partnership. If so: Identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above; Identify each transaction associated with any business received from Enron as a result of investments made by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. or its employees, officers, or directors; and Provide all records relating to these transactions. Committee interviews with, and testimony from, Jeffrey McMahon and Sherron Watkins, as well as other information learned by the Committee, indicate that several financial institutions and their employees claimed to have received threats, suggestions, or innuendo that a failure to invest in the LJM partnerships would have a negative impact on the likelihood that they would receive future Enron business. Please state whether any officer or employee of Enron or the LJM partnerships made any threat, suggestion, or innuendo that suggests or otherwise indicates that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would not receive future Enron business if it or its employees, officers, or directors did not invest in any Enron SPE or related partnership. If so, please identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above. If so: Identify and provide any records relating to such communications described above; Identify any Enron related transaction J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.. believes it was denied as a result of a failure to invest in the LJM partnerships, or other Enron-related partnerships; and Provide all records relating to these lost transactions. Reportedly, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. earned over $100 million in revenue from its relationship with Mahonia, Ltd. and Mahonia Natural Gas, Ltd. Please describe what interest, economic or otherwise, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has in Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Lively Ltd., and/or Justice Ltd., and the dates those interests were obtained. Reportedly, from 1997 to 2000, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. used Mahonia Ltd. and its related companies provided for or arranged more than $2.2 billion of "back-to-back" transactions where Mahonia-related companies signed forward contracts for delivery of oil and gas from Enron, and contemporaneously, J.P. Morgan would sign identical contracts with the Mahonia-related companies. Please provide all records relating to such transactions. Please describe any ownership or economic interest that persons, charitable trusts, or entities/shareholders other than J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. may have in Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Justice Ltd., and/or Lively Ltd. Please provide the names of these persons, charitable trusts, or other entities/shareholders of Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., Stoneville Aegean Ltd., Justice Ltd., and/or Lively Ltd. Reportedly, Mahonia Ltd. and Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd. are owned or controlled by two entities, Mourant & Co. and Mourant & Co. Secretaries. Please describe J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s relationship with Mourant & Co. and Mourant & Co. Secretaries. Please provide all records relating to communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Jeffrey McMahon, Andrew Fastow, Richard Causey, Richard Buy, or Joseph Deffner, relating to any Enron SPEs, trusts, or related partnerships. Please provide copies of all communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., Dinsa Mehta, associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling, Cliff Baxter, Jeffrey McMahon, Andrew Fastow, Richard Causey, Richard Buy, or Joseph Deffner, relating to any investment, loan, or derivative contract that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and/or Mahonia Ltd., Mahonia Natural Gas Ltd., or Stoneville Aegean Ltd. made with or to Enron or its related SPEs, trusts, or partnerships. Please provide all records relating to communications from 1997 to the present between Vice Chairman Mark Shapiro, Vice Chairman James Lee, Jr., Dinsa Mehta, associate general counsel Phillip Levy, David Pflug, or any other J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employee, officer, or director, and Ian James, reportedly a director of Mahonia Ltd. Finally, please identify all senior J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. employees or officers who worked on or were responsible for its Enron-related transactions, and make them available for interviews with Committee staff.Please note that, for the purpose of responding to these requests, the term "Enron," as used above, means Enron Corp., or one or more of its divisions, subsidiaries or affiliates, or related entities. The term "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.," as used above, means, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. since its merger on December 31, 2000, and includes the separate companies, J.P. Morgan & Co., and The Chase Manhattan Corporation, that existed prior to the merger, and any of their respective related and affiliated businesses. The terms "records" and "relating" should be interpreted in accordance with the attachment to this letter.If you have any questions, please contact Mark Paoletta, Chief Counsel for Oversight and Investigations, at (202) 225-2927, or Edith Holleman, Minority Counsel, at (202) 226-3400.Sincerely, W.J. "Billy" Tauzin Chairman John D. DingellRanking MemberJames C. Greenwood Chairman, Subcommittee on Oversight and InvestigationsPeter Deutsch Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Arcticfox (5/8/02; 17:36:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 75226) Gold outlook.... http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020508&dateOffset=&hub=headdex&title=Headlines&cache_key=headdexBusiness¤t_row=27&start_row=27&num_rows=1 Snip..By CAROLYN LEITCHINVESTMENT REPORTER The Globe and Mail Wednesday, May 8, 2002 – Page B15 Investing in gold and gold stocks has provided rich returns so far in 2002, but one Bay Street strategist believes the yellow metal has not finished its run yet.David Rosenberg, chief Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., sees potential for a run-up in the gold price to as high as $325 (U.S.) an ounce, and a further 10-per-cent gain in the shares of gold producers."Consider that a conservative call," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note to clients yesterday. Hipplebeck (5/8/02; 17:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75225) schizoid markets Man, there is a lot of money out there just swashing about looking for somewhere safe. How much poured out of the bonds market and ran for stocks today? The treasury put a big dump on the bond market today. Rates are going up.Sharon's move. What's he gonna do? Are we already in a financial war? In this corner we have the USA and Isreal, and in this corner we have the Arabs and Islam. Have we come that far? Aristotle (5/8/02; 17:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 75224) A change in the wind? Very wisely there's been a lot of close scrutiny among our hosts and forum members of the Argeninian crisis and the outcome of the peso devaluation. Roughly measuring the benchmarks since the January devaluation, the peso has lost 2/3rds of its value against the dollar and the primary index of the Buenos Aires stock exchange is up more than one-third (33-40%.)By the way, the local price of Gold in Argentina has more than tripled during this time.This is all worth considering as we begin to look for non-traditional explanations of today's 3% gains on the DOW and 8% gains on the Nasdaq.The relationships between the big wigs on Wall Street and those in Washington being what they are, it's not hard to imagine early trading by the big investment houses on tightly held rumors that the government has shifted its stance on the dollar, whether it be willingly or helplessly.IF (a big if) the JPM rumors have substance, then as the Gold metal market explodes, the U.S. banking system in general will need plenty of liquidity (lots of cheap dollars) to avoid widespread insolvency on several conceivable fronts.Continuing with the big "IF", these investment houses, aware of Morgan's problems and knowing therefore that Gold in quantity is unobtainable, would also that any additional interest would only add fuel to the fire. One of the natural reactions we might expect to see under limited options would in fact be a seemingly unnatural rise in the stock markets that can't otherwise be justified by the public economic news of the day.Sometimes it's a blessing to be small. Its easier to shift your funds to target the best avenues without worrying about single-handedly moving (and exploding) the targeted market. In light of the experiences of Argentina in the wake of a real currency devaluation, I'd rather be small and thus able to shift my thousands into Gold (300%) than to be a huge institution whose millions are only able to slosh (responsibly) into the runner-up prize of the stock market (40%).Hmmmmmmm. What did we see here today... and why?Some idle ramblings, full of holes, but something you should consider anyway.Gold. Get you some. STILL very heavy for the price. --- Aristotle Golden Bear (5/8/02; 16:57:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75223) RobotGuy (msg#: 75202) Greetings RobotGuy,That prediction was a short term prediction as a probable upside target before the next move down. The market was so weak last week that it did not even get there before it plunged later in the week. That level was a resistence level as I view the charts and would have been a major short term test as the markets looked then...As we have seen a short term bottom has been put in place and the market is now rallying. Not that I'm saying anything revolutionary to many here who are probably market veterans.I have been extremely busy the last few day and haven't been able to contribute to the forum, but I will have a closer look at the markets tonight and make a comment.By the way, I hope I didn't say "must" in my prediction, as there are no definites in the markets, only probabilities...Cheers,Golden Bear. R Powell (5/8/02; 16:47:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 75222) Interest rates Waverider posted the first message of the day today with a link to metal interest rates. The silver rates were up substantially. This bears watching. The last time these rates skied upward the cause was attributed to a shortage on the spot market in London. I heard rumors that this was finally eased with the arrival of 12 million ounces from a private source. I've often wondered if the rumor was true and, if so, how long 12 million ounces would keep the wolf away from the door. I've wondered about the rumor which was information given to me by telephone from a trader working for a huge world wide metals' refiner which just happens to have their USA base here in Massachusetts. He wouldn't say any more than what I reported. Waverider, thanks for the heads-up! Rich Rock (5/8/02; 16:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 75221) Mr. Gresham Mr. G quotes, "How many more bullets in PPT's revolver? "Now you're probably asking yourself -- did he fire five rounds, or six..."Thats a good one Mr. G, I learn alot and laugh alot at this forum. One of our fine minds said it well a few weeks ago when they said, "I'm working on my masters in economics and international finance right here at USA Gold," my sentiments exactly.About today's spike in the Dow and Nasdaq, what me worry? The way they are hyping it up on the news channels you'd think that we're back in a bull market like in the 90's.Heck it's only a one day bounce, and even though gold dropped a few bucks today, gold will take a dip from time to time as it has over the past few years but look where its at today. From 270.00 an oz in January 2002 to 309.00 in May 2002, that's a clean $39.00 jump this year. I'm happy with that, I don't know anyone showing me those kinds of returns on Qualcom ect. The problem with the stock market today is you have great expetations in war with reality. Cheers, Rock Pizz (5/8/02; 16:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 75220) R Powell Re: DebtThey wouldn't be smart enough to use the Visa Checks, more like an 18% card and then scoop the frequent flyer miles (smile). R Powell (5/8/02; 16:18:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75219) YGM Debt In regards to that $5.95 trillion. Couldn't O'Neill just pay it with a Visa or Master card to delay the billing for another month. This would give Congress time for a well-deserved two week vacation and still time to raise the national debt ceiling. Maybe we could pay it with one of those 1.9% credit card checks that everyone gets weekly in the mail. This lower rate would safe the taxpayers some money. Any more news about JPM's gold trading department?? Rich YGM (5/8/02; 15:41:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 75218) As We Near The Abyss......................... Yahoo News... Treasury Chief Warns on US Default Wed May 8,11:17 AM ET By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - Congress needs to extend the government's authority to borrow or risk an unprecedented default on the national debt, something that would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill warned Wednesday. O'Neill made his latest pitch for swift congressional action on raising the debt ceiling in a speech to Republicans gathered at the Capitol Hill Club.He has repeatedly asked Congress to boost the debt ceiling by $750 billion, but the request has become stuck in a political fight over the budget. The limit now stands at $5.95 trillion.Treasury last week said it can shift some funds to avoid hitting the debt ceiling in mid-May. But those maneuvers won't be useful in late June, raising the prospect of a default on payments to bondholders."If we run into the ceiling that's really bad," O'Neill said in remarks to the Republican Main Street Partnership. "Because world capital markets will say they knew they needed to do it and they've know for six months that they needed to do it and they didn't do it and that casts a shadow on the good faith and credit of the United States."If the government were to miss payments on debt coming due, it would be technically in default on the $5.95 trillion national debt, something that has never happened in the country's history. That would cast a cloud over U.S. securities, now considered the world's safest investment, and would mean the government would be forced to pay billions of dollars in higher interest payments on the national debt in future years.Economists and other experts don't think that would happen because Congress is sure to eventually raise the debt ceiling.O'Neill appeared to agree."It's not a question of whether we are going to do it or not. It's just a question of how close to the cliff we're going to run before we do what we know we need to do," he said.__On the Net:Treasury: http://www.ustreas.gov/ YGM (5/8/02; 15:23:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 75217) GATA EMAIL.............. http://www.gata.org 3p Wednesday, May 8, 2002Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:Here are a couple of today's dispatches of specialinterest.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.* * *To Members of www.LeMetropoleCafe.com:Two sources in various parts of the world informed me today that J.P. Morgan Chase is closing down its gold derivative operations. It appears that GATA has run them out of town. I will have more on this in my "Midas" commentary tonight at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com.-- Bill Murphy* * *Barrick comments on Gold Fields speculationTORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. , which has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold producer through a series of acquisitions over the past 20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it was poised to swell further by taking over a South African producer."The rumors about South Africa are just that. While we assess opportunities and we are familiar with opportunities, they are just rumors," Randall Oliphant, president of Toronto-based Barrick told shareholders at the company's annual meeting."Because Barrick has been so acquisitive, we're always associated with taking advantage of each of the opportunities. Although we're proud to be dynamic, I don't think that we can jump that fast between days from one opportunity to another."Earlier this week a prominent mining Internet site reported that Barrick and AngloGold Ltd., the third-largest gold company, would team up to buy Gold Fields Ltd., the fourth-largest producer."These rumors are creative, but it's just somebody creating this stuff at home in their basement," Oliphant told reporters after the meeting.Gold Fields has been a favorite of takeover rumors since its failed merger with Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. Ltd. almost two years ago. Franco-Nevada has subsequently merged with Newmont Mining Corp. and Normandy Mining.Over the past two decades, Barrick has grown from a small company with one mine to become an industry leader with annual production of about 6 million ounces of gold.Its acquisitions include the 1999 purchase of Sutton Resources, giving it the Bulyanhulu property in Tanzania, and the takeover of Homestake Mining last year, which helped Barrick develop a foothold in Australia.-END- Boilermaker (5/8/02; 15:22:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 75216) @ White Rose Thanks for your take on Barrick's investments. I guess I was looking for something a bit more spicy like incest with ones banker. Oh well, I'm sure they're in love. YGM (5/8/02; 15:04:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 75215) Gandalf the White (5/8/02; 13:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75205) Spot Buried in Paper..... .....is that the same paper we use to housetrain Spot??? White Rose (5/8/02; 14:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 75213) Barrick's investments Sometimes things are confusing because people are just plain embarrassed. Barrick's lost some money (not a huge amount, but enough to be an irritation) on Enron bonds.Now, they do not want to say ... "Gee, with 20/20 hindsight, those Enron bonds were not our shining moment".So they say "we are no longer investing in corporate bonds anymore". I suspect that the reason they are using their counterparties is because they are forced into it by other measures.You already know you do not want to invest in this piece of junk. They sell forward their gold and invest in Enron bonds. What else are they doing that they are not admitting to? Boilermaker (5/8/02; 14:32:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75212) ABX Press Release http://www.barrick.com/pdfwindow.asp?src=http://www.barrick.com/word/pressreleases/press5_8_2002_a8baba.pdf When reading Barrick's press release the follwing caught my eye;"Secondly, the company will no longer invest a portion of its spot-deferred contracts in corporate bond funds, and will instead leave all proceeds invested with its average AA-rated bank counterparties. "I'm not sure why they're doing this but it sounds a little risky to put your money with the same people who have the other side of your contracts. Can anyone help me with this? Pizz (5/8/02; 14:27:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75211) JPM A trader interviewed on WebFn said JPM was in the S&P futures market HEAVY today on the buy side.Workin' for the PPT and switching gears from shorting gold to pumping the SM??? Or rear-end covering for both due to up coming losses??Free markets my _____. this isn't even humorous anymore.My objectivity attributes are being severly tested. (more so than usual) sector (5/8/02; 14:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 75209) Get Ready for Friday's Option Expiry... ...That Means a Fat Buying Opportunity...Prehaps the Last Best Chance to Get on the Train With seemingly every producer announcing hedge closures, who exactly is left to sell forward? Not many I'd say. So Friday's end-of-day COMEX expiry presents a neat opportunity.If I were the cabal, with all my dirty JPM laundry waving in the breeze [Chief Derivatives manager Dinsa Mehta canned and $40Billion in gold derivatives being closed], I would be one mad puppy and probably lash out in sheer frustration. Something like we saw today in the markets. The DOW, NASDAQ and Gold must have cost the Fed dearly indeed! What a tantrum!So...the cabal likely floats into Friday and punchs pog down to maybe $300, maybe $305 in the early Friday PM....THAT'S when to move!All this derivative closure has to move the COMEX gold price ...unless of course the FED has pushed their JPM gold losses onto some offshore entity who will just default and not deliver their borrowed gold.What about their counter parties? We're the government…Sue us if you can!On second thought…who ever reads the Cayman Islands Gazette anyway? Pizz (5/8/02; 14:06:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 75208) Correction sorry, the 2nd half treasury auction was today. Still doesn't change my basic premise - money is still moving out of US financial assets (net). Pizz (5/8/02; 14:00:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75207) Money's moving out of the US no matter how they spin it http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020508&ID=1623147 Wasn't there supposed to be the first half of a treasury auction today. Bond market seems to be rather down while all interest is focused on SM.....hmmm. Based upon realitive size of the markets, I feel US financial assets have taken a rather large negative hit, even with the SM rally. Doesn't appear that it was a full house at the treasry auction. Oh, well, probably just means we'll (have to???)lower prices a bit for tomorrow. Nothing like a fire sale to attract customers. I'm just positive as heck the bond market's drop was due to such a turn of events in the SM as a penny or two in Cisco's earnings - yea right.Another "bullish" news item I heard today was that the war in Afganistan is winding down sooner than expected. Didn't bother to say where the troops were going . . . .hmmmm again.Guess it's all just in the way you look at it . . . or spin it!Pizz Boilermaker (5/8/02; 13:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 75206) Potlatch Folds Plant Potlatch to close mill, exit a business next weekSPOKANE, Wash., May 8 (Reuters) - Wood products company Potlatch Corp. (NYSE:PCH - news) on Wednesday said it will close a Minnesota mill and exit the coated printing papers business, as previously announced, at the beginning of next week. Spokane, Washington-based Potlatch said 616 employees will lose their jobs as a result of the mill closing in Brainerd, Minnesota. The closing will take place on Monday but parts of the mill will operate until May 17. It will also exit the coated printing papers business that day. Potlatch had said in March that it would sell its coated-papers facilities in Cloquet, Minnesota, to South Africa's Sappi Ltd. (SAPJ.J) for $480 million. The company also said at that time that it would close its remaining coated printing papers mill in BrainerdBoilermaker comment:The "strong recovery" is derailed for 616 more unfortunate ones off to the boneyard. Gandalf the White (5/8/02; 13:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75205) BIG DOWNFLAGS on the DOW and Duck !! & SPOT buried in PAPER WHAT a show the PPT is having today !Not to worry, SPOT is eating this PAPER BLIZZARD !BUY the REAL physical while the price is cheap.<;-) YGM (5/8/02; 12:47:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 75204) US BANKING NEWS SITE...... http://breakingnews.datasegment.com/finance/us_banking/ Good place for a daily visit...... Jon (5/8/02; 12:46:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 75203) Mahendra Sharma Predicted Nasdaq Rise On April 29, predicted 30% increase in Nasdaq within 30 days! Up over 100 so far today. Going up another 500 this month? Wonder if he's member of PPT team. RobotGuy (5/8/02; 12:46:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 75202) Golden Bear (5/3/02; 06:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74820) I never did enquire as to why the S&P had to return to '1100 to 1110' value before 'the next onslaught.' I have been thinking about it, but I am not sure I know why. Could you please elaborate on why the S&P must return to this level before residing? I'll tell you one thing I know for sure, is that this market has the appearance of going anywhere today, and I'm sure that is the intended effect. Didn't we just see a 2% drop recently in the DOW? Today she's up a little, and it looks like the cheerleaders might get laryngitis if they don't calm down :) What a wonderfully volatile market it has been, the entertainment is extremely gratifying. It's similar to fishing, when you feel a little tug on the line, and you know there's activity down there. You don't set the hook right away, but you wait until the next tug. As soon as the next tug happens, you set the hook, and then relax the line just in case you missed you don't want to frustrate the fish from trying again. That moment of suspense while you let the line sit slack wondering if it's there or not is the entertainment I speak of. We're sitting on a slack line with a trophy catch preparing for battle! The confidence that brings us our daily ripples in the pool of endless fiat is about to be swallowed in a whirlpool. I hope at least the smart ones know to get out very soon, lemmings will suffer direly for their lack of willingness to investigate the true meaning of their investments. We will suffer the recession that we have not suffered, it's just been put off for awhile. Gold may sink, but it always shines!Cheers!!RobotGuy. Pizz (5/8/02; 12:32:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 75201) Mr. Gresham Aren't there a couple different types of dead-cat bounces?Normal, and then the ones where you have to scrape the road-kill up with a flat-nosed shovel and throw it in the air?? (kind of like this one??)Pizz Mr Gresham (5/8/02; 12:24:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 75200) Market surge http://mrci.com/djindus.asp And look at the ones booming today -- all of the greatest 52-week losers in the Dow -- financials & techs (MSFT, IBM) -- a little too coincidental? This is to stem a rout and give a last lifeboat to certain parties? How many more bullets in PPT's revolver? "Now you're probably asking yourself -- did he fire five rounds, or six..." Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (5/8/02; 12:02:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 75199) buy the RUMOR! http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=$COMPX&read=74607 a great day to buy more gold. JPM bank crisis link above Pizz (5/8/02; 11:41:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 75198) The War may be starting in earnest Keep the big picture in mind.We've been at war since 911. After the opening salvo, IMO the first front has been and still is financial, and the intensity is increasing.Nobody will take the US on head-to-head militarily without a second front. Our financial underpinnings are our Achilles Heal.It is my opinion right now that the Gold Cartel is being hammered into submission with the goal of taking down the financial system thru a derivitives/banking implosion. The PTB is throwing everything they have at the markets today trying to drive gold down (and not being too successful) and the SM's up (more successful, but upside gaps tend to be filled and the bulk is short covering right now).Our opponents are buying gold by the ton and selling the SM's and the PTB is obliging out of what may be sheer desperation. We're at least one move behind on the war chessboard. If someone can buy gold and sell US assets to the benefit of their goal of taking us down, IT'S A WIN - WIN SENARIO. Think About It! Can you think of a better way to get your assets out of the US and into gold than what appears to be happening right now???Actual war? Our opponents just keep Israel twisting in the wind. Look at the timing of the latest two suicide attacks.We're being forced into a confrontation along with Israel and we don't have the luxury of another terrorist attack as justification. A few weeks back the administration said an attack on Iraq was not in the near term offing. It was figured that we would not fight in the heat of the summer. Rumors have it now that MASH units are being called up. That says 60 days or so - in the dead of summer??? Not our choice, but if it's going to happen, our opponent(s) want the best advantage they can get.We weren't all that popular in the world going after Bin Laden (the way we did it), less popular if we go into Iraq, but one whole heck of a lot less popular if we get drug into Israel's agenda, and it sure is starting to appear that we will. Sharon is enraged, and will probably be forced to do something major.The US is being forced from a somewhat justifiable crusade on the axis of terror, to an unpopular US/Israel coalition against the Palestines and/or Islam. Gee, is this happening by accident????When the bullets and bombs start flying in earnest, expect the terrorists to shift to the US in a big way. Use your own imagination to figure out what it will do to the "recovery" and gold. A physical war in the ME, terrorist at home, and a dollar/fiat financial war in the backround and running hard for the forefront.I personally hope I'm wrong, but we're not playing this too smart (we're not in control). We appear to be trying to run a bluff against a straight with a pair of jokers in our hand and nothing up our sleeve. I for one am not underestimating our opponents.Stick the course. Buy and hold PM's. Next four to six months may make 1980 look like a small blip on the chart.Pizz Graefin (5/8/02; 11:28:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 75197) Missouri Tax... Schiesse!!! And I hope I'm not one of those 400,000 Missouri tax payers who won't see their money because I haven't received my refund yet! Schiesse!- Arme Gräfin Cavan Man (5/8/02; 11:12:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 75196) JPM Rumor From LeMet JPM closing down gold derivative ops? Please confiem independently as I have heard and read so many "blockbuster" stories like this over the last three years I am a bit jaundiced. YGM (5/8/02; 10:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75195) End Result of Gold Confiscation....... From Safe Haven article..... Excerpt:Without the gold ban the recession that started with the 1929 stock market crash would have been over by 1932. With the gold ban, the recession was turned into the greatest depression of all times. The man who was celebrated as savior ridding the nation of the curse of depression was in fact the one who had brought about the disaster in the first place. He pulled the gold trigger releasing the murderous forces of bond speculation to prey upon the productive sector. It heralded the continuing fall of the rate of interest. Bond speculators, first and foremost the banks among them, were ready to move in for the killing. The vultures picked the bones of productive enterprise clean. All this was done under the veil of anonymity. Nobody could have guessed that the Great Depression was a happy time for some. Well, for the bankers it was time for popping corks. Not only was their skin saved, but they became so strong financially that they could thereafter dictate government policy.**Well I say the latest Gold Manipulation Scam by Bankers and their minions might well result in the demise and restructuring of the entire Fed Res system before the smoke clears away....Greed "IS" it's own executioner!!!....YGM. darkhorse (5/8/02; 10:53:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 75194) OK, what'd I miss? 1) I've lost several more marbles than I'd been told in the past2) I missed some extraordinarily good news today3) The PPT work is now being added into quarterly production numbers and they're working hard to make sure it's up again this quarterThese are the only reasons I can see the DOW +280, SP500 up almost 35 and the NASDAQ up almost 100. What'd I miss? YGM (5/8/02; 10:31:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 75193) BARRICK........BY HALF TO 3 M oz...Give us a break, There's 18 M oz showing on the books! BOYCOTT....ABX< PDG< JPM Barrick trims hedges again to 'take greater advantage of rising gold prices? Canadian Press Wednesday, May 08, 2002 TORONTO (CP) - Barrick Gold Corp. is further scaling back its forward selling, announcing Wednesday it is "simplifying" its so-called premium gold sales program. The company said it will not renew its gold call and variable price sales contracts, a move which is expected to reduce these hedging positions by half, to three million ounces by year-end. "A simple spot deferred program makes more sense in today's environment," stated Jamie Sokalsky, chief financial officer of Canada's largest gold company. "The overall program will be simpler, smaller and better positioned to take greater advantage of rising gold prices. At the same time, it will continue to generate significant additional revenues and provide secure and predictable cash flows." These changes are in addition to Barrick's previously announced decision to sell half of its output at the spot price for the first time in 14 years. In recent years, all of its production was delivered against the hedging program at prices far in excess of the spot market bullion price. © Copyright 2002 The Canadian Press ***Smoke and Mirrors, fancy accounting and pure BS from Barrick will not fool many......Bah! YGM (5/8/02; 10:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75192) SAFE HAVEN.....Revisionist View of The Great Depression..... http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htm EXCERPT:Revisionist View of the Great DepressionSummaryFollowing John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by ‘contractionist tendencies’ of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks’ risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.Using fundamental principles of accounting we shall prove our main thesis asserting that falling interest rates squeeze the profits of productive enterprise. Worse still, in the 1930's the squeeze was concealed by the accounting code which ill-advised politicians had relaxed at the start of World War I. As a result losses were reported as profits and phantom profits were paid out as dividends to shareholders. There was a hidden destruction of capital across the board. More precisely, capital was clandestinely siphoned off from the balance sheet of the productive sector to show up in the form of capital gains in the balance sheet of the financial sector. The collapse of production was not caused by the collapse of demand as asserted by Keynes. Rather, the collapse of demand was caused by the collapse of production, which could have been avoided by keeping the interest-rate structure stable, as it has always been under the gold standard, shutting out bond speculation. The economists’ profession would do well to re-examine its prejudices and prepossessions about the gold standard. The urgency of this task is all the more pressing in view of the unfolding deflationary scenario. Once more, the interest-rate structure appears to be falling inexorably, driven by another tsunami of bull speculation in bonds in which the big American and Japanese banks are calling the shots. Far from being able to control the situation, central banks are helpless. Their financial resources are no match for those of the bond speculators.The only way to avert another tragedy is to stabilize the interest-rate structure. This the United States government could accomplish overnight, by opening the Mint to gold.*Cont'd @ Link.......... Solomon Weaver (5/8/02; 10:19:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 75191) Black Blade: Here's a little face time for the "other energy" http://www.frtechbiz.com/displayarticledetail.asp?Art_ID=57062 5/3/2002 5:51:00 PM By Rod Franklin Three Colorado State University researchers have invented a machine they say increases the speed of photovoltaic (PV) solar cell manufacturing by a factor of 10, compared with other systems.Mechanical engineers W.S. Sam-path, Kurt Barth and Robert Enzenroth have tested a prototype that spits out one 3-inch-square thin-film PV cell every two minutes — and does it cheaply.Their next goal is to produce a version of the machine that can make 1-foot-square cells. Eventually, they want to commercialize the hardware. "We do want to see this thing happen," Sampath said. "We want to see (PV) modules at Home Depot and Builder's Square (priced) as low as they can be."But they face tough odds, according to the locally based manager of a national thin film partnership program. Sampath's research group at the CSU Materials Engineering Laboratory linked together seven PV manufacturing steps into one in-line process. Its machine makes solar cells by depositing thin layers of highly conductive cadmium sulfide and cadmium telluride, two of the most advanced materials used in modern thin film production, onto glass.By comparison, Barth said, one major manufacturer employs five or six discreet wet chemistry steps as part of its process. And though existing manufacturers have been able to link together some or all of the seven steps, the consolidation doesn't occur in one machine, he added.The group has achieved a respectable sunlight-to-electric-current conversion efficiency of 12.5 percent in its cells, and Sampath claimed they boast among the toughest resistance to degradation of any thin film PV.Even so, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) expert who maintains regular contact with domestic and foreign PV producers doesn't rate CSU's process optimization at the top of his list."They're not the best in the world, but they're topnotch devices," said NREL's Ken Zweibel. "I think they are an adequate representative of a technology which has good potential."Zweibel manages the Thin Film Partnership Program for NREL, which funded a portion of the CSU research. He said existing PV manufacturers are way ahead of the university in terms of financial backing and production infrastructure. "Competing with them is going to be difficult," Zweibel said. "You're going to have to have substantial backing."Big players such as BP Solar and First Solar are pumping millions into high-throughput assembly methods. First Solar has a plant near Toledo, Ohio, that is being scaled up to produce 100 megawatts of thin film PV modules each year — about half the world's 1999 output."They have a similar process, actually," Zweibel said. "If anything, it's faster than the one at CSU."A healthy global demand already exists for PV cells in third-world countries where off-grid power is nonexistent or substandard. Village electrification using PV modules (containing many cells) and arrays of modules is a promising market. Yet current production volumes don't begin to sate the power appetites of the estimated 2 billion people around the world who get by without electricity. According to Photovoltaic News, Japan led in global manufacturing last year with 128.6 megawatts of PV. The United States was second with 75. Europe followed with about 61. But producing larger volumes of PV cells and modules is just one missing link in the economic equation for PV, which has struggled for years to improve its standing vis-à-vis wind generation and cheap hydrocarbon energy sources, such as natural gas. Economies of scale are just as important as volume, especially in the domestic market, Sampath said. Current manufacturing costs stand at $4 to $5 per watt."That's about what the selling price is, so the industry is not very profitable at all," he said. "The thought is, if you can get it on your roof for under $3 a watt, the market is semi-infinite."For that to happen, manufacturers would need to shave production costs to $1 or $1.50 per watt. Significant progress has been made in PV economics. The cost of electricity from solar cells has dropped from more than $1 per kilowatt-hour in 1980 to a current price of about 20 cents. Patents associated with the CSU invention have been signed over to the three engineers, who have begun to explore technology transfer options through an advisory committee."We have made contacts with some of the more noted names in the field," Barth said. RobotGuy (5/8/02; 09:45:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75190) YGM - - - - Man!! There's going to be 400,000 very disappointed individuals! YGM (5/8/02; 09:30:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 75189) Missouri must use A Anderson Accounting Firm.... Shades of the future for Gov't....."They're ALL Broke"! We just need honest accounting to see it! May 7, 2002 THE NATIONMissouri Stops Payments of Tax Refund Checks Budget: The state cites a cash flow crisis in taking the extreme measure. More than 400,000 have been told that they won't get the money owed them any time soon. By STEPHANIE SIMON, TIMES STAFF WRITERST. LOUIS -- The budget deficit is huge. Tax collection has been unexpectedly skimpy. And the treasury is all but tapped out.So the state of Missouri has stopped sending out income tax refunds. And there are no plans to put the checks in the mail any time soon.State officials have told 415,500 taxpayers that their refund checks--worth a total of $167 million--are on indefinite hold because of an extreme cash flow crisis. "We really don't know how long it will be," budget director Brian Long said. The move announced late last week is extreme. Illinois has delayed refund payments a week or two because of a cash flow crunch. And Alabama has put off paying most corporate tax refunds until the economy rebounds. But several national experts on state finances said Missouri appears to be alone in cutting off personal income tax refunds.Or at least it's the only state to have announced such an unpopular policy."I have to think that the same discussion about at what point or when [the treasury] can pay tax refunds is going on in several other states right now ... because their circumstances are similar to those in Missouri," said Harley Duncan, who directs the Federation of Tax Administrators.Or, as budget analyst Arturo Perez put it: "Opening the [tax return] mail can be slowed way down. That's the crude method of delaying refunds."Several States Face Similar Fiscal CrunchesPerez, a senior specialist with the National Conference of State Legislatures, plans to start surveying budget directors today to find out just how bad the April tax season has been--and how refunds are being handled. California refunds are going out on schedule; taxpayers who filed in mid-April should receive checks within six weeks, according to the Franchise Tax Board.Evidence collected informally so far shows states across the nation reporting an anemic tax collection season, at best.The reasons are obvious: With the economy in recession, many people worked fewer hours or at lower-paying jobs last year, so they owed the state less income tax. Even more significant, the drooping stock market ensured that few investors had capital gains to report--or pay taxes on.Budget directors anticipated such a downtick, of course, especially after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks slammed an already weak economy.But in many states the gloomy forecasts turned out to be not gloomy enough.Missouri, for instance, predicted income tax collection in April would run about $525 million, down 13% from the previous year. "Frankly," Long said, "I thought we were being pessimistic enough." He was wrong: The state took in just $420 million in April.Even in her small private practice, accountant Michelle Moon could see the plunge. Client after client was getting unexpectedly large refunds. Those who owed the state owed much less than in years past."You could see the writing on the wall," said Moon, who works in St. Charles, Mo. "You could tell the state was going to have to make some drastic cuts because the money was not going to be there."'You Can't Spend What You Don't Take In'Indeed, despite a painful round of cuts last winter, Missouri is facing a deficit of up to $250 million for the fiscal year ending June 30.Lawmakers are now debating how to plug that hole. If they can reach consensus, the state might have enough cash on hand to resume refund payments next month. That's a big if, however, as the chief proposal--to tap a rainy-day fund--has drawn ferocious opposition from conservatives. House Republicans have already voted it down once.Which leaves budget director Long in a tight spot."You can't spend what you don't take in," he said, sighing.If the refund checks are delayed past Aug. 15, the state will owe taxpayers interest at the rate of 6% a year. But that's small consolation to the families who were counting on their money now, to pay off credit card bills or remodel a bathroom or cover a summer vacation.The Department of Revenue estimates that 26% of those taxpayers who are owed refunds are caught in the limbo.Among them is Tony Salvatore, an airline pilot from the St. Louis suburbs who was expecting a $979 refund."I think this is terrible," he said.He's particularly steamed that lawmakers are considering a $644-million plan to build a new baseball stadium for the St. Louis Cardinals and refurbish stadiums in Kansas City when they cannot even return him the $979 he overpaid in state taxes last year."I'm not an accountant," Salvatore said, "but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this state is going to get into serious trouble if we keep going like this." RobotGuy (5/8/02; 09:02:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 75188) Volatile Everything!! Sweet!! Chris Powell (5/8/02; 08:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75187) Barrick is covering more of its shorts http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1100 Barrick increases the covering of its short positionin gold:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1100To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com USAGOLD Market Commentary (5/8/02; 07:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 75186) Taking a break. . . .NEWS & VIEWS Update! Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.
Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)
New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.
If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.To all my readers:I will be taking an extended break from these (almost) daily ministrations to see what it's like to view the world of gold and finance once again as a disengaged observer. To keep up with the news and views surrounding the yellow metal, I would suggest both following the Discussion Forum and scrolling through Live News at the Daily Market Report page. Nothing will change, however, with respect to my duties and involvement on the brokerage side of the business. Those of you accustomed to putting up with my ruminations and complaints about the ways of the world will find the line still open at Extension 101 and business proceeding as usual. MK Henri (5/8/02; 07:34:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 75185) Black Blade Yes, the PBR's do look promising for both small and large scale applications. I believe Excelon is in the process of designing and building a prototype in South Africa. Hipplebeck (5/8/02; 07:32:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75184) can a country retire? After talking to my wife about trade deficits and current account balances etc., she asked a good question.If things keep up and Japan keeps growing their savings in US treasuries, will they ever reach a point where they will be able to retire on the interest income and never have to touch the principle? Funny huh? Black Blade (5/8/02; 07:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 75183) Henri – Nuclear Reactors I agree. The main point about the current reactor problems was the additional shutdown time for inspections and repairs. It is unlikely that the shutdowns will be much of a problem overall, but will add to the demand for other energy supply in the interim. However, I think that the next wave of the Nuclear power industry will likely involve "Pebble Bed Reactors" (PBR). PBR's are purported to be safer and are smaller so they can be located for use closer to the end user. At some point Nuclear power will have to take on a more prominent role as "cheap" hydrocarbons are depleted and energy demand grows. Cheers!- Black Blade Canuck Gold (5/8/02; 07:12:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 75182) Commentary by Bill Murphy on derivative market By Bill Murphywww.LeMetropoleCafe.comMay 7, 2002This morning I received a phone call from the best ofsources in South Africa. The source has a friend whospent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chasesenior bankers. The friend was told by the Morganpeople that they have "lost control of the gold marketand that the gold derivative department was a mess."The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P.Morgan Chase -- the bank itself -- might not make itthrough the year. They suggested that my source buy$330 February gold calls.Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my sourcereceived the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of the Gold Cartel bullionbanks:* The gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chaseis being investigated.* The man who ran the department has been fired.* This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but wascalled "still a rumor" by the program host.* It appears the "conspiracy guys" were right all along.A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that theman who ran Morgan's gold derivative department hadindeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?Subsequently, another outstanding source informs mehe hears that Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts a couple of years ago when Reg Howe revealed Chase's gold derivative position as reported to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.Mehta called in his accountants and others to find out how that disclosure happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell, and I presented that document to the speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. The following day I delivered it to every member of the House and Senate banking committees.Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we hadto say.This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and JimSinclair have alerted Café members to:* The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.* A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.* Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.* The price of gold is going to explode.* There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets, and the Fed must all be in a state of sheer panic over gold. There is a feeling by some in the GATA camp that they will orchestrate a massive bailout -- like ask the International Monetary Fund tosell its gold. Anything is possible, but to do anything now might be folly and tip their hand that GATA was right all along. Why should anyone care if gold goes to $400 or $500, much less $350? All that a price rise would do is be a boon for theeconomies of sub-Saharan Africa.The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's credibility is very good in Africa. If The Gold Cartel comes up with some trumped-up reason to sell gold, I shall try and see some of the leaders of the gold-producing countries and point out what has been done to them and why.CG: Following yesterday's events in Israel, the US dollar is up and gold is sharply down. And TPTB would have us believe that the markets are not manipulated. I take solace from the fact that they though Canute could stem the tides. The reality is that they cannot control nature, but they can maybe slow it down a little. nickel62 (5/8/02; 06:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 75181) Merrill settlement looms....Spitzer declares canidacy for Govenor! 05/08 07:38Merrill Drawing Near Accord to Settle Spitzer Probe (Update2)By Stephen CohenNew York, May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. is close to an agreement to settle charges by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer that the biggest securities firm by capital misled investors with biased stock research. The firm hopes to reach an agreement soon to settle Spitzer's claims. Negotiations so far have been ``productive,'' said Merrill spokesman Tim Cobb and a statement from Spitzer's office. Merrill has offered to pay about $50 million, though a final figure is still being discussed, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Spitzer yesterday postponed a court appearance on the matter until May 16. An agreement that separates research and investment banking within the firm could keep the attorney general from seeking civil or criminal charges against the firm, the paper said. Merrill's shares have fallen 24 percent, losing about $11 billion in market value, in the month since Spitzer released e-mails from Merrill analysts that indicated its research was influenced by investment banking relationships. ``This shouldn't be too big of a financial burden, especially because the failure to reach settlement involves much higher risks,'' said Yoshiaki Asada, who manages 50 billion yen in U.S. equities at Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance Co. ``Investors would even find the news positive.'' Merrill shares climbed $2, or 4.9 percent, to $42.80 on Instinet. A $100 million settlement would be the same as what Credit Suisse First Boston agreed to pay earlier this year to settle regulatory charges that it allotted sought-after shares of initial public offering in exchange for investor kickbacks in the form of higher commissions. Criticism Spitzer wants Merrill's analysts to be paid from a pool of money separate from that generated from investment banking fees. He also wants to stop analysts from participating in pitches to win business, and wants Merrill to publicly recognize that it misled investors and pay a fine. Merrill doesn't want to agree to new research policies unless its Wall Street rivals also adopt such changes. Spitzer's investigation, which began with Merrill, has widened to include other securities firms. Other regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Association of Securities Dealers and the New York Stock Exchange, have joined the investigation. Spitzer had criticized Merrill's research, releasing an October 2000 e-mail about Internet Capital Group Inc. in which analyst Henry Blodget said there was ``nothing to turn this around'' and ``nothing positive to say.'' At the time, though, Merrill rated Internet Capital ``accumulate,'' its second-highest rating. Merrill has said the e-mails were taken out of context. ``Wall Street has had a basic conflict of interest for some time,'' said Howard Ward, who manages the $2.95 billion Gabelli Growth Fund and owns shares of Merrill and other securities firms. ``The most likely case is a settlement with maybe a fine and a change of practices.'' Merrill is a passive, minority investor in Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News. nickel62 (5/8/02; 06:55:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 75180) Tough talker Spitzer is going to maybe ask Merrill Lynch to go to bed without supper for ripping Merrill Lynch clients off for billions!!!! Wall Street loudly protests that punishment is too harsh. Merrill lawyers argue that maybe the punishment should simply be going to bed without dessert. Spitzer plans new political campaign as "Defender of Public Interest" Mattel and MGM plan new Spitzer action figure and sequel/follow on to Spiderman movie with "Attorney General Man". Blows smoke up publics butt while secretly blackmailing Wall Street for campaing contributions to fund future politcal campaign. $50,000,000 fine stated to be on par with $100,000,000 fine that Credit Swiss First Boston payed for rigging IPO market...Other Wall Street firms think Credit Swiss and Merrill shouldn't have gotten caught...Other politicans wish they had thougth of it. Game continues..Sheeple are now sleeping on public park benches and using gas station bathrooms as needed and that is the only part of this settlement they will ever see. Spitzer thinks that this subsidy of the on going care of former Merrill investors is warranted in light of the obvious abuse by some rogue analysts that happened to be working for Merrill Lynch when they sent emails later to prove embarassing to Merrill and very lucrative to self serving pubic frauds. Henri (5/8/02; 06:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 75179) Blak Blade msg #75163 The Oconee (SC)and Davis Besse (OH)Reactors are the same design by Babcock & Wilcox. While there are a number of issues surrounding reactor head nozzle integrity in pressurized water reactors PWR), the call for detailed inspections was mostly fulfilled at the time the DB "hole" was discovered. Perhaps the DB folks were dragging their feet a bit knowing that they would not pass the mandated inspections? The Oconee site has 3 identical B&W reactors and it appears that only one had issues significant enough to be specifically noted. Other sites which have B&W reactors that I know of are Three Mile Island, PA (2 nay 1 now), Crystal River, FL (1)...there may be others. Most other pressurized water reactors are of a different design and were designed by Westinghouse or Combustion Engineering. A sizable portion of US reactors are of the boiling water reactor (BWR) type designed by General Electric.The older PWR plants had been undergoing extensive testing to qualify their pressure boundaries for recertification as they were approaching their operational design lifetime. Due to "overengineering" on the safety side many were found not only suitable for life extension but were also given permission to upgrade their power output. Several have already ordered new reactor heads rather than deal with the minor issues identified during the inspection mandate as they could forsee long downtimes and the economics favored head replacement.I personally don't see this causing a lot of disruption of nuclear generating capacity in the future, nor do I see it as a death knell for nuclear power in general. On the contrary, I see it as a tribute to oversight provided by industry self regulation and the Nuclear insurers that brought these problems out into the daylight. Also the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for reacting to this news in a proactive way that facilitates evolution of the industry.Much smaller and safer (town scale) reactors on street corners would seem to be the next sane direction given the aging transmission infrastructure and the tendancy for large power block manipulation by companies like Enron. Boilermaker (5/8/02; 06:49:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 75178) Trebuchet Seige http://trebuchet.com/ One way to get some press attention would be to drag a trebuchet to the front entrance of the FED and the Treasury with great fanfare, draped with GATA's army colors and deliver an ultimatum to Greenspan and O'Neil that they cease their captivity of the barbarous metal or else a seige will be loosed to tear down their corrupt castles.See site above for obtaining weapons. Gold Standard (5/8/02; 06:44:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 75177) Another day in the Cabal's headquarters..... http://japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=8&id=214675 The scene: A dark and cigar-smoke heavy boardroom in London, just off Threadneedle Street. Twelve cigar-chomping, pinstripe-suited, overweight "Captains of Industry" are seated in varying poses of despair around the mahogany boardroom table.The time: Early Wednesday morning, 8th May, 2002.The characters: Twelve members of what is commonly known as "The Cabal", bullion bankers, Reserve Bank representatives, and top intermediaries.The issue of despair: The irrepressible price of gold.Chairman: "Gentlemen, thank you for making the time to meet at extraordinary inconvenience. As you know, the price of gold has been almost a week over $310 US dollars, and despite selling and selling into the market, the price has established what I can only see as long-term support. I have called this emergency meeting to see whether any of you have any viable alternatives."Faceless Cabal Member: "Mr Chairman, what about more Central Bank sales?"Chairman: "NO! We've got the Swiss making Swiss Cheese out of their hoard, and they're selling far more than they should under that blasted Washington Accord. They've got a quota of only 1300 toinnes, you know. Their sales are going to dry up well before September 2004, and who else have we got to replace them?"Another Faceless Cabal Member: "Of course! Good old Wim. He's always a value play, and the press are always waiting for his next pearls of wisdom. Let's get Wim to talk about Bundesbank sales again..."Chairman: "NO! You IDIOT! We tried that two weeks ago under your advice, and look where it has now got us, you fool! The market ignored any threat of Bundesbank sales, and swept to a higher mark regardless. Plus Wim ended up with egg on his face, when those blighted Gold Bugs pointed out that any sales had to be after September 2004, he sank like a deflating balloon. No, there must be something else....."12 Faceless Cabal Members: rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb.......Chariman: "SILENCE YOU FOOLS - I've got it!!! Let's do the old Spanish Galleon shipwreck trick - that's alwys good for peeling a dollar or more off the spot price."Faceless Cabal Member: "Didn't we do that a couple of months ago with that Korean shipwreck?"Chairman: "Yes, and didn't that work a treat!"Faceless Cabal Member: "But, that was only a couple of months ago - isn't it too soon?"Chairman: "NO! No-one will remember that, except for those blasted Gold Bugs - but no-one listens to them anyway! A perfect scheme!!!"Faceless Cabal Members: (muttered sounds of general agreement....) Black Blade (5/8/02; 06:43:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75176) Jimbo – Fidelity Select Funds One thing to keep in mind about the Select Funds, they are managed by entry level analysts and usually stay on the job for about a year before they move on to manage another fund. These Select Funds are really run by the analyst pools who really make the share selections for final approval by the manager. If you get the Select Portfolio guide (semi-annual mailing) you will read about how long the manager has been on the job. You might think of Select Fund managers as being on the "Farm Team" before they are considered for advancement into the "Big Leagues" of the Fidelity family. As far a Gold Funds are concerned, Fidelity (FSAGX) is not that bad as they focus more on non-hedgers, but due to the 3% load, why not invest in a "no load" fund that relies on gains from non-hedgers (Toqueville maybe?) if that's your game plan? I have nominal (IRA) investments in Fidelity Select Electronics (FSELX), Fidelity Select Natural Gas (FSNGX), Energy Fidelity Select Energy Services (FSESX), and Fidelity Select Home Finance (FSVLX). Fidelity is also one of my brokerages. But I have other selections for my Gold investments (like physical and a smattering of non-hedger shares) and even a physical Gold IRA (I know that USAGOLD have a physical Gold IRA option available). Anyway, that's my take on it. Cheers!- Black Blade nickel62 (5/8/02; 06:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 75175) JIMBO Fidelity Gold Manager is talking the company book not his! With $450 Billion plus in Equity and Bond mutual fund assets Fidelity is not stupid enough to allow a gold fund manager of a minor sector fund to start a stampede into his fund by talking straight. He would be reassigned the next day. It is not in the interest of Fidelity to attract money to a gold fund and kill the marketing line they are pumping out to millions of skittish mutual fund holders who are already concerned enough about the rational of keeping their over exposed IRAs and 401Ks tilted toward a collapsing stock and bond market. Been there done that. Jimbo (5/8/02; 06:16:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 75174) Fidelity on gold Fidelity recently mailed to investors a booklet summarizing its "select portfolios." Niel Marotta, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio, commented on the outlook for gold as follows: "…if the equity markets improve meaningfully and interest rates begin to climb, investing in gold could appear less attractive and we might see mining companies increase their hedging activities, which would tend to keep a lid on any gold rallies. Inflation and the direction of the U.S. dollar also must be factored into the mix—right now, neither is supportive of higher gold prices." Marotta's thinking seems to run contrary to what I'm observing in the economy and the gold market. Nevertheless, it makes me wonder why the manager of a successful gold fund would make such contrarian statements? Would anyone care to comment? nickel62 (5/8/02; 05:00:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75173) Black Blade, Maybe the AngloGold people have been whispering in the ears of the South African politicans? Nopthing would make AngloGOld's attempted defence of an unfriendly takeover of a South African mine more credible then a rise in the price of gold, especially if Barrick is the acquirer. A shut down or a threatened shut down of any portion of South African gold mine production would certainly throw a scare into the gold trading desks of the hedged producers. This could be good news, especially in light of the rumours coming out of GATA that Gold Fields and/or AngloGold are being targeted by Barrick and their bankster buddies for a hostile takeover. Black Blade (5/8/02; 04:45:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 75172) Trash Currencies Plummet Against USD http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp The USD hammers the hell out of world currencies. It appears that domestic manufacturers better pray for tariffs on imports now. So far we have tariffs on steel, and soft wood lumber. Maybe autos are next. Meanwhile the market indices are going ballistic - the DOW (+128), NASDAQ (+35), and S&P 500 (+15) are set to rocket higher at the open. "Cisco Effect" - Hmmm...- Black Blade Black Blade (5/8/02; 03:46:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75171) Revisionist View of the Great Depression http://www.safehaven.ca/Editorials/Fekete050702.htm SummaryFollowing John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by ‘contractionist tendencies’ of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks’ risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.Using fundamental principles of accounting we shall prove our main thesis asserting that falling interest rates squeeze the profits of productive enterprise. Worse still, in the 1930's the squeeze was concealed by the accounting code which ill-advised politicians had relaxed at the start of World War I. As a result losses were reported as profits and phantom profits were paid out as dividends to shareholders. There was a hidden destruction of capital across the board. More precisely, capital was clandestinely siphoned off from the balance sheet of the productive sector to show up in the form of capital gains in the balance sheet of the financial sector. The collapse of production was not caused by the collapse of demand as asserted by Keynes. Rather, the collapse of demand was caused by the collapse of production, which could have been avoided by keeping the interest-rate structure stable, as it has always been under the gold standard, shutting out bond speculation. The economists’ profession would do well to re-examine its prejudices and prepossessions about the gold standard. The urgency of this task is all the more pressing in view of the unfolding deflationary scenario. Once more, the interest-rate structure appears to be falling inexorably, driven by another tsunami of bull speculation in bonds in which the big American and Japanese banks are calling the shots. Far from being able to control the situation, central banks are helpless. Their financial resources are no match for those of the bond speculators.The only way to avert another tragedy is to stabilize the interest-rate structure. This the United States government could accomplish overnight, by opening the Mint to gold.Black Blade: Interesting article. A return to the "barbarous relic"? Black Blade (5/8/02; 03:37:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 75170) Productivity – All And Nothing http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=07052002-021719-9582r Snippit:In theory, high productivity growth is very good news. Firms are producing more per worker. Their labor costs are therefore kept in check, and they will be more profitable. And they can keep the prices of their goods flat, so that inflation need not rise. In recent years Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has often pointed to high productivity growth in the United States and expressed his confidence in future economic prospects because of it. But more recently, Greenspan and others have started to get more skeptical. "The numbers look just too large to be credible," Greenspan said earlier this year. The question is whether productivity numbers can be relied on. In the short-term, problems of measurement seem to mean that the productivity numbers are not very helpful. Robert Gordon, a professor at Northwestern University in Illinois who has made a special study of productivity in the United States, goes one step farther. He finds that the supposed trend increase in U.S. productivity growth is a mirage. In a study in 2000 he wrote the "entire trend acceleration" in U.S. productivity was confined to the computer durables and telecommunications sectors and that "there is no revival of productivity growth in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of durables." Even if one takes the numbers at face value, they may not say very much. The U.S. government measures productivity by dividing output by hours worked. In the first quarter, U.S. companies cut jobs. The total number of hours worked fell at a rate of 1.9 percent. But companies' output increased by 6.5 percent. Divide the two and you have an impressive-looking surge in output per hour worked. Black Blade: My thoughts exactly. The again, we already know that the BLS is a bogus organization that pumps out meaningless, bogus, and statistically massaged data. Add in unemployment, employees working longer hours and doing the work of more employees, and toss in a pinch of hedonic filtering for good measure. I take the BLS data with a grain of skeptical salt. Black Blade (5/8/02; 03:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75169) Market Indices Scream Higher, USD Higher, Petroleum Higher, ....Uh Oh - Gold Lower http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp The market indices are rocketing higher on Cisco's "Home Run" earnings of 11 cents a share (Pro Forma of course). The net is listed as 10 cents, though that does not accout for a number of costs including employee options, etc. The DOW Futures are up over 110 pts., the NASDAQ Futures are up about 30 pts., and the S&P 500 Futures are up about 12. The CNBC anchors are calling it the "Cisco effect". Looks like blast off for the markets at the open if these numbers hold.Another suicide bomber detonated in Israel this morning (the second one in 12 hours). This may have an effect on petroleum as NY Crude is up at $27.00/bbl and NG at $3.75 Mbtu. The USD is charging ahead while other major currencies are crumbling apart (the Euro is close to falling below 90 cents). Gold appears to be unable to hold up this morning and is lower about a dollar.- Black Blade Black Blade (5/8/02; 02:44:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 75168) S. Africa May Close Unsafe Mines After Deaths Rise http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Mining%20News&tp=ad_mine&T=au_storypage99.ht&s=APNd3thUkUy4gQWZy Snippit:Johannesburg, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa's mine safety regulator said it may close down unsafe mines after 91 workers died in the country's mines in the first quarter, an average of one a day, Business Report said, citing a study by the department of mineral and energy affairs Black Blade: If they do shut down those mines, then that is less supply to market. However, mining is critical to the SA economy. Black Blade (5/8/02; 02:03:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75167) Rocky Mountain methane opens new US energy fight http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020507/energy_rockies_gas_1.html Snippit:SAN FRANCISCO, May 7 (Reuters) - Environmentalists and the U.S. energy industry are pitching their tents over Rocky Mountain gas fields, each camp preparing for the next battle over where to secure the nation's energy supplies. Since the Senate in April extended a ban on drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), at the core of the Bush administration's energy policy, the focus has shifted to vast gas resources trapped in coal seams under the Rockies. As conservationists and supporters of energy independence square off, two federal agencies have already thrown up roadblocks to tapping that gas -- much of it tucked away on federal land in some of the nation's most scenic terrain. "I think you can see the debate shifting now. And these recent decisions could be a major setback to future (energy) development in the Rockies," Charles Mankin, director of the Oklahoma Geological Survey, told Reuters. "If that happens it's going to be much more difficult to meet this country's growing energy needs," he said. The Rockies' role in meeting U.S. energy demand is raised by the nation's growing use of natural gas, which industry analysts predict will fuel most of the country's new power plants and heat most of its new homes for the next decade. Geologists estimate about 346 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable gas lie under the surface of the Rocky Mountain states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico. The Interior Department is expected to decide by November whether to make changes to its environmental impact report. Black Blade: Of course by November it's too late to offset an energy crisis late this year. Environmentalists stopped ANWR, they will likely stop the Rocky Mtn petroleum projects, and they stated they will next move on to stop new leases offshore. We are likely facing an energy crisis of epic proportions or else get used to an emergency massive build up of coal-fired power plants and emergency issue of "carbon credits". It will look especially grim for California. Of course Sec. Gail Norton of the Dept. of Interior could just overide the EPA decision regardless of Sec. Christine Whitman (cat fight? - Hmmm...). "Interesting Times" Black Blade (5/8/02; 01:27:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 75166) Textron Says Job Cuts To Reach 7,300 Amid Restructuring http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020507/200205071555000778_1.html Snippit:WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Textron Inc. (TXT) said it expects its job cuts will total 7,300, excluding the Automotive Trim unit, as a result of the company's restructuring.Black Blade: Yep, more "Bones" shuffle off to the growing "Bone Pile" and plants shut down. Black Blade (5/8/02; 01:18:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 75165) Providian Cuts 2,600 Jobs, Stock Rises http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020507/earns_providian_2.html Providian Stock Rises Almost 9 Percent After Announcement of Job CutsSnippit:SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Shares in Providian Financial Corp. gained nearly 9 percent Tuesday, a day after the company announced more job cuts. The credit card issuer expects to dump nearly 2,600 workers this year as a new management team continues to dig out from loan losses that nearly buried the company last year. Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows. Spartacus (5/8/02; 01:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 75164) Tax Refund Checks http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-000032345may07.story?coll=la-headlines-nation-manual ST. LOUIS -- The budget deficit is huge. Tax collection has been unexpectedly skimpy. And the treasury is all but tapped out.So the state of Missouri has stopped sending out income tax refunds. And there are no plans to put the checks in the mail any time soon.State officials have told 415,500 taxpayers that their refund checks--worth a total of $167 million--are on indefinite hold because of an extreme cash flow crisis. "We really don't know how long it will be," budget director Brian Long said. The move announced late last week is extreme. Illinois has delayed refund payments a week or two because of a cash flow crunch. And Alabama has put off paying most corporate tax refunds until the economy rebounds. But several national experts on state finances said Missouri appears to be alone in cutting off personal income tax refunds.-----If the refund checks are delayed past Aug. 15, the state will owe taxpayers interest at the rate of 6% a year. But that's small consolation to the families who were counting on their money now, to pay off credit card bills or remodel a bathroom or cover a summer vacation. Black Blade (5/8/02; 01:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 75163) Events Raise Nuclear Safety Questions http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020507/ap_on_re_us/reactor_worries_6 Snippit:WASHINGTON (AP) - Severe cracks found at one nuclear power reactor and the stunning discovery of a hole that nearly breached the six-inch steel dome of another facility are raising new questions about aging nuclear plants and whether they are being inspected closely enough. The hole that went through most of the heavy reactor cover of the Davis-Besse power plant in Ohio and the severity of cracks found about a year earlier at a reactor in South Carolina surprised federal safety regulators and the industry.Only a thin noncorrosive stainless steel membrane kept the hole at the Ohio reactor from bursting open. And nuclear experts say if the cracks at the Oconee plant had been allowed to continue, the nozzle might have separated. In both cases, thousands of gallons of radioactive water would have escaped from the reactor, raising the risk of the core's radioactive fuel overheating and — in a worst-case scenario — possibly a meltdown and a release of radiation from the larger concrete containment building.Black Blade: There are 68 other nuclear facilities of similar design. Spartacus (5/8/02; 00:22:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 75162) New bear leg underway http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=5014 By Charlie MinterSignaling continued weakness, the market was unable to hold onto its early gains despite the biggest increase in quarterly productivity in 19 years and a widely expected no-decision from the Fed. Productivity numbers are notoriously unreliable to begin with, and the current improvement was helped significantly by the massive layoffs of the past two years. In addition the government is overly generous in the way it calculates quality improvements. For instance, a PC with ten times the speed, memory and drive of one made five years ago is considered to be ten times more productive. That helps explain why first quarter output, according to the productivity calculation, increased at an annual rate of 6.5% at a time when year-to-year revenues of the S&P 500 decreased about 6%. We can't help thinking that the difference between these two numbers needs some explaining. ----The problem for this highly overvalued market is that a tightening is viewed with great pessimism, while a continuation of the present monetary policy is made possible only by more economic weakness that will also be disappointing. We believe that the market has nowhere to go but down, and it looks as if that is happening now. Waverider (05/08/02; 00:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 75161) Silver Lease Rates http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html Little discussion lately re: silver but it looks worthwhile to keep an eye on the lease rates which have edged up since Friday. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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