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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/8/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
SHIFTY
(04/08/01; 22:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51603)
Getting ugly in Japan
Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:13AM 12943.44 -440.32 -3.29%
Lafisrap
(04/08/01; 22:15:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51602)
ECB about to "blink"?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOtAT8BSyRUNCIExp
I remember FOA stating in explaining the euro vs US-dollar currency war, it was very significant that when the Fed began lowering interest rates the ECB did not "blink." Looks like the ECB is about to "blink."
excerpt from link
***
04/08 03:32
ECB Likely to Cut Key Interest Rate Wednesday, Analysts Say
By Sonja Dieckhoefer
Frankfurt, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will probably cut interest rates for the first time in two years this week, as slowing economic growth raises the likelihood of inflation in the euro region receding, analysts say.
***
Chris Powell
(04/08/01; 21:59:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51601)
Defendants' replies in GATA/Howe case posted
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/729
Note that the U.S. government claims
the power to manipulate the price of
gold as the GATA lawsuit complains it
has been doing.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
SHIFTY
(04/08/01; 21:36:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51600)
Inside the Beltway
http://www.washtimes.com/national/inbeltway-200144212910.htm
A snipit about GOLD.
==================================
Bullion bull
An old debate has resurfaced on Capitol Hill as to what is a collectible and what is not, including coins.
As far as Congress has been concerned, bullion coins and bars issued by the U.S. Mint "are the same as a rare wine, or a piece of art," says Mike DiRienzo, vice president of the Gold Institute.
But they're not collectibles, Mr. DiRienzo tells Inside the Beltway. "They are investment tools."
Agreeing is a prominent group of Republican congressmen, who have introduced a bill that would provide capital-gains treatment for gold, silver and platinum bullion investment products, in coin or bar form.
"As you know, for long-term capital gains attributable to collectibles, the tax rate remains at the maximum rate of 28 percent," says Mr. DiRienzo. "Unfortunately, gold, silver and platinum bullion has been classified as a collectible by Congress, thereby precluding it from the long-term capital gains tax relief preference."
Popular bullion coins include the American Eagle, the Australian Kangaroo Nugget, the Canadian Maple Leaf, the South African Krugerrand and the Austrian Philharmonic. American Eagle bullion coins have become one of the world's leading bullion investment coins.
"Basically, this is a technical correction bill, but it has a funny angle, given Congress' classification of these products as a collectible," says Mr. DiRienzo.
SHIFTY
(04/08/01; 20:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 51599)
Asia is a bit RED
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u
Japan down -349.92 2.61 %
slingshot
(04/08/01; 19:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 51598)
Belgian Msg#51586
Hard Core Goldbugs
Awhile back I came across an article stating that the Powers to Be want to take Gold to "zero". No value at all. This would percipitate the crossover to an electronic money system easier. After reading this news, I said to myself,
Ain't this some crap! Can you see some CBer who has been buying his wife for years GOLD bracelets, rings neckleces and other jewelry say, "That is not worth anything". Zero,ZIP, dump it all in the trash. So, maybe they should be concerned at what their wives would do to them. I plan to ride this market all the way. I came in at a good price of Gold and if it falls Good if it rises Good. I do not over extend myself yet, accumulate Gold slowly.
"but a more extreme undervaluation will provoque another approach in Valuation-Timing".
For me, "This is it" Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!
The discussion at this forum has IMHO, covered many scenarios which could affect the price of Gold. The percentage for the price of gold to rise is in our favor.
Time is our only enemy. I have no Gold Fear. I do have confidence. More confidence than those in the stock market.
My bullion dealer told me that since the price of gold is so low, shareholders are buying gold with profits from the stock market! WHOA!
Slingshot
Tree in the Forest
(04/08/01; 19:20:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51597)
Goldbugs: Keep the faith
From a fortune cookie: Life always gets harder near the summit.
Tree in the Forest
(04/08/01; 19:17:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 51596)
Rockgrabber
I've always liked California. Anyone who loves motorcycles, has to love that great weather. The problem is CA has become totally pink. How can the same people who wisely elected Ronald Reagan as governor, elect these socialists Davis, Feinstein et al? Rigged elections? They're certainly paying for it now.
Sancho
(04/08/01; 18:34:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51595)
Nickel62, All
Excellent reposting at message 5l582 on Bob Chapman article. He seems to be an astute observer-especially on the end result of all these easy loans and attendant graft. As it is now about all a buyer of a manufactured home needs to qualify for a loan is to be able to breathe. Any credit "problems" get "fixed". These are somewhere around 35% of new home market. Start imagining several hundred acre fields filled with re-poed mobiles. Site built homes are not much tighter on qualifying as they have so many special programs tailored to the economically disadvantaged (read someone who cannot on their own volition save over $500 of their own) and credit damaged that creditors run out of potential customers. You will see a repeat of FDIC and RTC type foreclosures, only much more so.
SHIFTY
(04/08/01; 18:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 51594)
R Powell
R Powell : non-California grown prunes will not have any numismatic value. LOL
Living in Florida I should watch the prune supply . If it starts to DRY UP there could a run on prunes!
$hifty
CoBra(too)
(04/08/01; 16:19:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51593)
There is Something in the Air ... Tonight ...
... Is it the smell of singed SM's right after a heroic relief (counter-) action by the last? try of a bull stampede, aborted in view of no takers of Del(l-inquent)'s
status quo, which was a lot better reading than the now becoming business as usual warnings of no (ever) earnings by the rest of the techs - or is it that the the real fundamentals of the credit, debt and SM bubble are beginning to sink in and the good ship Titanic.
After all and after hours PGE took shelter from creditors and filed chapter 11 - kind of a shocker to BB's grasshopper - and considering UTE's have been the safest havens and assured yield provider for the retired - this just may prove to be the last drop in the leaky tub and even the call for all men to the (FED) pump, won't forestall the overall slump of SM's, $'s, TB's and bonds.
The US situation may have reached the same state, as Japan's Tankan report has painted of late - as the overall debt surpasses GDP - 11 years of stagnant economy with the banks remaining in jeopardy! Woe is me, shame and scandal to the eco-policy! - while all those cranks at CB's and Bullion Banks were playing Black (Sholes) Jack with derivatives - sans the intellect of counterparty thieves.
And in the end they even played paper gold as poker chips for match sticks in their quest to make a penny more on their money as a proxy for the physical, the last and lost treshhold of the $-hegemony. Systemic risk, we've heard the story, was averted by gory and ineffectual paper banding, until we're back close to stranding.
So go ahead and save the hedges, triple the global economy, as markets fray at the edges, Greenie is all they can see. ... and the brutal reality of virtuality - same as a hangover - is the waking up process - to the factuality of actually having mistaken progress for success ... as happended before (1929?) and there is a surprising hush from the administration of Bush, as it may slowly sink in, you can't even save kin from the dust bin of history, where in the end we're all in.
... The still intact, value of gold will cushion the "Deep Impact" of the (asteroid) debt load - be sure to secure a place in the last life boat ... of the Titanic - happy Easter to all of you - cb2
R Powell
(04/08/01; 15:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51592)
Shifty and RossL
Thanks for the Ponzi chart.
I asked the misses to buy some prunes today buy she came home with non-California grown prunes. Are these acceptable or should we return them?
Rich
R Powell
(04/08/01; 15:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 51591)
Ray Patten
Thanks for the report and the link. I have it but when it's right there, a click is so much easier than having to find it among all the paperwork my wife wants cleaned up.
Those numbers were as of 4/3/01, last Tuesday.
I still believe this huge short position held by the non-commercials or funds is the result of chart watchers or those who base their positions on technical analysis. Most of these analysts have little to no knowledge of the matters discussed here every day whether related to gold or the general economy.
61,580 short contracts
10,226 long
This leaves a net short position of 41,354 contracts. That's plenty of powder for a good short covering rally (as in Sept.-Oct. 1999). Add in the thousands of tons from years of the gold trade and we'll have a wonderful time.
The powders there and ready. Has anyone got a match?
Rich
Mr Gresham
(04/08/01; 15:06:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51590)
Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
Took me most of the weekend to get through this one -- Hayek & Keynes, lots of '30s perspectives. But it is Econo-speak, and my brain is just in eye-scanning mode, not registering much. Need a second going-over.
Belgian -- I will also re-read your earlier "TA" post with some relish, as I enjoy your many turns of phrase that land right on my intuitions of the situation, just never saw them in words before. I think it comes from the European experience of thinking in more than one language, and it keeps the brain more nimble. (as does our long-time friend, Cobra2)
The T-bonds do tend to show long trends. But we have heard news of the Rubin-era (&post) of manipulation in their issuance and redemption. I'm watching 10-year more now. Manipulations (as with gold) are subject to a sudden withdrawal of that program, as well as -- in both T-bonds and gold -- the dual spectres of Government and Monetary defaults. Those psychological reversals may or may not be "news" already incorporated in the charts. The "3-sigma" that returns economic numbers to crash-fundamentals instead of TA waves.... One window larger than we've been watching... Hmmmmm....
Ray Patten
(04/08/01; 14:47:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51589)
The link.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
This is the link to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission site.
Ray Patten
(04/08/01; 14:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51588)
VERY bullish committment of traders report for Gold!!
Friday's committment of traders report showed that the commodity funds increased their shorts over 16,000 and the commercials decreased their short contracts outstanding by over 20,000 to only 16,000. That is the smallest commercial short position in almost 10 years, probably over 20 years. My records only go back to 1993.
It looked like nothing was happening in the last week of trading because there was little change in open interest. So this report is a big suprise, especially to the commodity funds, who just let major commercials out of what has apparently become an uncomfortable position.
I predict that Gold will close at least $5 higher on Monday.
Hopefully, these cheap prices for Gold will now become part of history.
SHIFTY
(04/08/01; 14:13:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51587)
Periodic Ponzi Update PPU
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Nasdaq 1,720.36 + Dow 9,791.09 = 11,511.45 divide by 2 = 5,755.72 Ponzi
Down 103.80 from last week
Things are looking interesting for this week.
Got Prunes?
Get U some !
:-)
RossL thank you as always for the link.
All jokes aside
Got Gold?
You still have time to get you some.
$hifty
Belgian
(04/08/01; 13:52:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51586)
Gresham/Buena Fe/Slingshot
USTB30 : No Sir, I am sure of nothing ! But piercing a 13 yrs downtrend line (at 6,5%) is significant, especially in a context where interest rates were pushed down in a strike of panic (A.G.). This is "INTERVENTION" à la carte. Again a free market could not decide for its own good. Natural behaviour was curtailed. This low rates are not justified now and add to hiding the currency-erosion. And masks the signal function of the Gold-Indicator. We must again conclude that both forces : 1/interventionists and 2/free market, are in doubt as to decide and show the infla/defla/stagfla...lalalas. This "doubt", must point to the cumulation-point of denial/acceptance in the SM (and dollar). If interest rates, manage to move higher (7%)...they might facilitate the choice for the marketmovers to lock in, SM-recuperated money into the save (?) harbor of USTB-30. Derivatives will cover a potential dollar-decline.
The recent Low of 5% ('99)(USTB30) and corresponding Low in POG (252$) is again a positive divergence for POG, compared to the same 5% (UST30) in 1972 (POG between 50$-100$)
Don't know if it is relevant, due to the 1971 window event.
A weakening dollar will automatically be defended with higher rates. Higher rates will kill the overvalued SM. And weak dollar might provoque POG signals. Catch 22 ?
And what is the weakest shackle into this chain...? yes, Gold !
To avoid the above scenario...what has to be done ?
Lower interest rates (again) by Interventionnist force...wich might support the SM at these levels and prevent the dollar from sliding. My guess is that if they succeed in such a bold move...it will only be the building of wave IV (rates down) waiting for wave V up to break the 6,5%-7% psychological and technical breaking point. In this scenario, I take the previous 5% low as ATL, from wich an EW impuls wave has started.
Gresham : do you really think there are so much -SM- Big Winners out there ? I have strong doubts about the amount of winners at the final outcome.
Slingshot : I'm convinced there are only a fistfull of hard core goldbugs left. Perhaps most of us remain goldbug for the wrong reasons. Only the strong believers and cognant are prepared to act on physical and wait for the unevitable outcome. It takes an enormous amount of patience, to lead a friend onto the Goldpath. There is something like Gold-Fear. Once you bought into physical, it feels as if you have to stick with it. Stock investing doesn't seem to have this Fear-Reflex. Strange isn't it ?
It is this element of Fear that makes the paper-ravage, possible. That's why I repeat that the "Goldmovers" will decide when that Gold-Fear will be turned into Gold-Rush.
I cannot name these goldmovers. But I know they exist.
They have been manifesting their existance very regulary within the 21 year decline. They will never disappear, because "GOLD" is fore ever. Not supposed to be interpreted as kind off Gold-romance blablablah...but when I see 3 years of rounding bottom-accumulation with corresponding volume-accumulation in the Big five goldmines...goldmovers in action. Announcements of Austrian sales, hadn't any effect on mines. If you compare POG and Dollar-index since 1997 : POG's behaviour is positively diverging to the outright dollar-index surge. This is goldmovers, physical accumulation to me. As if they want to give a strong signal for not falling into the minus 200$ dollar trap. These chart-observations are mostly intuitive interpretations.
The signals are whispered and difficult to comprehend.
The above rhethoric falls or stands with the number 250$ for POG. A brutal breakdown, will hurt reigning prudent optimistic perception. Goldbugs are not speculators by definition. But a more extreme undervalution will provoque another approach in Valuation-Timing. If the bulk of official gold is planned to be distributed into private hands...I will never, never, never sell it. But it is not on the order of the day, isn't it ?
Journeyman
(04/08/01; 12:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51585)
PROFOUND if conrtary musings @nickel62 msg#: 51583
Hi nickel62!!
Very profound "if contrary musings" indeed! If they (CBs) keep gold "leasing" up (and remember we had pretty good evidence thru TheStranger's correspondence that BOE at least, practices fractional reserve gold banking) they may have little of their gold "on permisis!"
Once the "spoiler" gold (the gold actually held by the CBs)is no longer an adaquate amount to threaten an exchangable gold currency - - - AND that situation becomes somewhat common knowledge, that would certainly drop a significant barricade to a return to transactional gold.
And then, yes, "What if they gave a [fiat] currency and no one came."
But it occurs to me "they" may have nothing to fear - - - if they are merely switching around ownership papers to gold already in their vaults which only has it's title changed from time to time but not it's location.
This is something that's difficult to determine, probably even for most insiders. Anyone know how to find out the actual gold balance sheet figures for BOE?
Regards,
Journeyman
slingshot
(04/08/01; 11:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51584)
What is a Goldbug?
There has been many an hour that I have spent reading the posts at this forum. So much so that my wife says that I am obsessed with it. How did it all start? Chance maybe luck.
Happen to look in the business section of the paper and found GOLD at good price to buy. $325.00 I believe. Off I went to trade FIAT for GOLD. My curiosity got the best of me as to how others thought of Gold and my search upon the web took me here. For some time I stayed in the shadows and read
all your posts. Learning the acronyms was the hardest as being new to the forum. Where do I rate USAGOLD? TOP NOTCH and PROFESSIONAL. No newspaper, magazine or TV Can do a better job informing on the subject of GOLD. How can I say this? Simply that information is supported by optional links whereby further research can be done by the reader.The debate among posters alone is sufficent to weed out poor statements. So what is a Goldbug? IMHO. He is a person interested not only preserving his wealth but also his freedom. He is concerned about what is going on in the world
for he knows it may have an impact upon his life. His tenacity to expore theory leads to the facts. Most of all he has a willingness to share with others his veiws.Pointing out that these veiws can come from around the world!
To those first time lurkers I say stick around and find out what is a Goldbug. You won't be disappointed.
To all at the forum "Thanks"
Slingshot
nickel62
(04/08/01; 11:31:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51583)
Just contrary musings :
Maybe the outcome of all of this financial gerryrigging will ultimately be gold turns out to once again be a private only asset. Or in other words the Central Bank holdings will be so small that they will not matter. The inflection point could well have already been reached. It is quite possible that the public demand to have some stability behind their currency could reoccurr and the banks I would believe have most likely already already sold or leased the majority of their actual holdings. It is one of those silly simple things that change the world. What if they held a currency and no one came?
nickel62
(04/08/01; 11:16:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51582)
While long this article from Bob Chapman and Le Metropole Cafe is well worth the time..
US MARKETS
The average price for a branded drug rose from $30.43 in 1991 to $54.78 in 1998. That is an 8.8% annual increase compared with 2.6% for the CPI. Americans are allowed by the drug companies to subsidize the cost of drugs for everyone else in the world. Consequently our elderly and sick either venture across our borders to Canada or Mexico to obtain cheap drugs illegally or go without food or shelter in order to be able to try to stay alive. This is a national tragedy and we should quickly find a solution.
The pharmaceutical industry makes an 18.6% return, which is the best among 41 industries and double to triple most of the best. From January 1995 to February 2001 leading drug stocks have produced total returns, price appreciation and dividends, averaging more then 450%. That is roughly twice the return of stocks in the three major Wall Street Indexes. Yet these companies have to gouge the American people. They are allowed to so do by our Congress upon which drug companies spend almost $100 million a year influencing.
The government has charged Shering-Plough, the pharmaceutical group, with making $90 million in pay-offs to generic drug manufacturers as part of a scheme to prevent cheaper alternatives to K-DUR, a potassium chloride supplement used mainly by patients on blood pressure medication. Abbott Labs and Aventis have been accused of similar breaches of the law.
The analytical community of major brokerage houses resembles the inhabitants of a bordello. They are not in denial. They are paid enormous sums to lie to the public in behalf of their firms’ investment banking clients. They ostensibly have no insight into the quality of earnings of the stocks, which they follow. If they did they would have been announcing sell recommendations such as we did. Their malfeasance has led to market shocks each time a major company doesn't meet their earnings estimates. We suppose they also conveniently overlook the negative earnings impact as a result of an outrageously overvalued dollar. You can't have it both ways.
Unfortunately, we believe that the Bush administration knew full well what manipulation had been going on prior to their assuming executive power. Since they have come to power gold is still under immense pressure, the dollar is still ridiculously strong and the Plunge Protection Team is still rigging the stock market. Thus it looks like the Bush faction is about to assume responsibility for past and future manipulations.
It is obvious that the American economy is continuing to deteriorate; as unemployment climbs consumption will decline. If bankruptcy legislation passes and people cannot write-off their credit card debt they'll stop incurring debt and pay off balances. Those who have no hope will still go bankrupt and either go on welfare or enter the underground economy, which presently constitutes over 35% of economic activity. Interest rates can continue lower but during the 1930s when rates went from 6% to 0.75% it did little good. Japan is another excellent recent example. It's too late because profit growth is gone and profit margins are sure to follow. During the late 1930s the economy picked up slightly, but because we stimulated manufacturing output and instituted the C.C.C. Today manufacturing only makes up 16% of the economy. The FED is increasing aggregates at over a 15% rate. That is probably going to be offset by the losses in liquidity from stock market losses. That will hold inflation at 3.5%. That will give us stagflation. We know Alan Greenspan will attempt to wildly create aggregates to bail out the economy, because he has said he will. The problem is he really doesn't know whether it will work or not, because in the 1930s they didn't increase aggregates anywhere near as much as they have presently and will in the future. Thus, we enter a great experiment with the possibility of a collapse in the derivative market that didn't exist until just recently. This bear market has just begun to grow.
Alan Greenspan was responsible for the greatest stock market boom in history. He will also be held responsible for what could become the greatest economic collapse since the collapse of the Lombard system in 1338. Both were born of greed and the power to control and both are doomed to failure. The elitist power behind Mr. Greenspan and the central banks orchestrated the economic and financial charade of the 1990's. Booms and busts don't just happen they are engineered by central banks. They are not normal. They are created by the flooding of the market place with money and credit, which perennially are accompanied by the manipulation of interest rates all of which end up in unproductive hands. That is why the market has lost well over $4 trillion in value and we feel the ultimate losses will be between $10 and $20 trillion. History tells us lower interest rates are not going to save the US and world economy. No one who has studied economic and financial history can think for a moment that Alan Greenspan can control the financial carnage that is in store for us. To our way of thinking he and his mentors know that and this is a game being played to bring about the New World Order. Why else would such tremendous amounts of aggregates be created and why else would they allow individuals and businesses to build up such unpayable amounts of debt? They know eventually the stock and bond markets are going lower and the banks, other lenders and corporations will go bankrupt on a wholesale basis. Why else would banks buy congressional legislation assuring repayment of credit card debt? Next they'll get their paid stooges in congress to reopen debtors’ prisons. There goes the Magna Carta and our Constitution straight out of the window. The FED has no solutions. That is why the dollar must be strong and gold trashed. That is why we have no gold backing on our currency. We supposedly, the public, have no place to financially hide. The central banks prescription for price stability not only includes goods and services, but interest rates, currency values and gold. Through market manipulation assisted by the use of derivatives the dollar remains strong as the price of gold is deliberately reduced in value. Once the dollar is extraordinarily overvalued and credit expansion at its zenith, as they are now, gold will bottom and proceed back upward in value as the dollar declines, which will be accompanied by recession or depression. As that evolves the FED and the US Treasury will be forced to bail out the bankrupt bullion banks. If gold goes up several hundred dollars an ounce the banks may not be savable or worse the government may have a real revolution on their hands. The friends and relatives of those in debtors prison aren't going to be to happy about that and the elitists could all end up like Benito Mussolini. We see no halt by central banks, particularly the FED, to printing fiat money. Consequently the system is terminal. What you have seen in the stock market over the past year is but phase one of a long drawn out monetary nightmare.
Financial news is replete with instances of corporate officers of public corporations selling stock while recommending that the public purchase shares. We expect many shareholders suits regarding this and other issues. Over this and next year we expect hundreds of thousands of suits and complaints to be filed against corporate insiders as well as stockbrokers and stock brokerage firms. We predicted this over a year ago and the legal actions are well underway.
When people go bankrupt they raise the costs for other debtors, because lenders raise interest rates and fees to cover their losses. Last year there were 1.2 million personal bankruptcies and this year they'll be a lot more. Credit card bankruptcies filings increased 20% from 1/1/01 to 3/3/01 over a like 2000 time frame. Median household income for personal bankruptcies was $21,540 about $15,000 below the national median. The average age of the debtors’ cars was 6 to 9 years and that 25% had medical debts exceeding $1,000. The operating premise of proponents of the new bankruptcy law is that the system is filled with people who are able to pay their debts and choose not to do so. That is simply untrue. Many people sit on the edge because banks and other lenders should have never lent to them in the first place. They have low wage service and retail jobs, most of them temporary. Just turn on your TV and you'll see, buy a new car on sale, no down, no credit check and no finance charges. Far from abusing the economy these poor souls are being abused by the economy. They have been betrayed by the credit card industry. Banks have paid off congress telling them to believe that fraud is running rampant, when it is not. You don't need an elephant gun to kill a few cheats. Congress should be considering legislation to bring action against the bankers, but that won't happen because Congress doesn't give a damn about the public. They only care about being reelected and the banks have plenty of money to assure that.
Fannie Mae sold $125 million in bonds on 4/1/01 and the FHLB sold $115 million on 4/15/01.
Fannie Mae will sell $100 million in bonds on 4/24/01. The FHLB on 4/24/01 will sell $100 million in bonds and sold $125 million worth on 4/4/01. Fannie Mae will sell $300 million in bonds on 4/8/01. Fannie Mae will sell $100 million in bonds on 4/11/01. The FFCB will sell $100 million on 4/11/01, Freddie Mac will sell $150 million on 4/11/01 and FHLB will sell $100 million on 4/17/01 and $50 million in bonds on4/16/01. Ginnie Mae is selling $650 million in bonds in April.
New legislation has been introduced to put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the control of the FED and phase out corrupt HUD's office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. The FED would set minimum-capital requirements and approve any new activities. We see this as a phase out of Fannie and Freddie. We also see it as an instrument to bail them out as too big to fail in the coming recession.
Freddie Mac's automated-underwriting system, used by mortgage companies, is wiping out the role of other lenders and eventually gives Freddie and Fannie a monopoly. The system requires minimal information about a client's income, the value of property bought and its location. Information is then taken from credit agencies and a statistical model is used to predict the likelihood of default. This has made getting a loan a piece of cake. The bottom line is if there is a remote chance of a loan being made Fannie and Freddie will write it. They want a monopoly and then they'll be too big to fail in the event of a real estate collapse. This is where all this is leading. Oversight and due diligence is minimal. Banks and other lenders having no implied guarantees from the public can't write such marginal paper. Politicians love Freddie and Fannie it spells prosperity and reelection. We predict that once real estate values begin to fall and fall they must, there is going to be a financial bloodbath, and a major part of that will be attributed to their automated-underwriting system. Together Fannie and Freddie hold $2.3 trillion in loans. What they are is subsidized government agencies that happen to be publicly traded. In a 20% to 50% decline in the real estate market they could end up like PG&E and SCE, virtually bankrupt. Making matters worse they are lending their subsidized liquidity base to non-bank lenders. Fannie Mae encourages unsecured home improvement loans. Brokers, with whom Fannie and Freddie deal with, are originating over 50% of loans, up from 20% ten years ago. Thirty-eight percent of their loans are either no down payment, 125% of equity or $5,000 down. Hardly a way to run a business.
Due to fears of lawsuits Wall Street analysts recommended sell recommendations on 11% of stocks in the first quarter. Perhaps someday HOLD will mean hold again and not sell.
At 1160 the S&P 500 Index is almost 25% below its peak. Its P/E ratio is just below 20 times earnings. Historically its P/E has averaged 15. We think that level will be reached. Taking the S&P 50% off its highs would put it 25% lower at 870, that is if earnings projections hold up, which we are sure they won't. The Dow Jones Industrial average is a continual subject of manipulation as is the S&P 500. As bad as the outlook is statistically it is really worse because they keep changing the formula and the rules. They call it juicing.
Moody's credit rating downgrades have again outnumbered upgrades in the first quarter. 76 investment-grade downgrades compared with 16 upgrades. That is a 3.43-1 ratio if you discount the 21 downgrades related to the impact of the California power crisis. Corporations are in trouble and are selling paper in the bond market as fast as they can. This is major deterioration.
Program trading now represents 26.5% of the NYSE's daily average volume. Most of this is generated by index arbitrage, which involves multi-stock trades in which professionals try to take advantage of fleeting price differences between stocks and stock futures. This opportuning of markets is akin to that of a gambling casino. In the week of 12/11/00 and 12/15/00 program trading accounted for 33% of total NYSE volume.
Statistics show that the only plus for the economy during the 1990's was phenomenal profits by corporations, which was the result of creative accounting. What we thought were great leaps in productivity was the result of massive liquidity injections and cooking the books. Part of the phantom gains came from restructuring, which in most cases was done to enhance the value of company shares, so insiders could sell their options. That was accompanied by laying off anyone over 40, cost cutting and general downsizing. This wasn't a free market or capitalism it was a simple manipulation. Wealth is created by physical economy. We are witnessing the degeneration and destruction of physical economy in America. There is no easy way to profits and wealth. You have to work for it. You can't create it through subterfuge. As a result, 10 years after we should have had a severe recession, we are going to have a severe recession, because the economy is far weaker now than it was in 1989-91 and the debt increases are staggering. For the rest of the year the economic numbers are going to be simply horrible and as a result the economy will slow further and the stock market will fall further.
We expect E-Bay will soon be sued for invasion of privacy. They have broken their word to the public and will sell its users information if the company is acquired or merges with another business. We'd short E-Bay at 35 3/8, and cover at 27.
As an example of the slaughter in mutual funds, Janus Capital Corp. has lost $100 billion in assets without losing many of its four million investors. Some of their funds are off over 50%. These are professional managers. With this kind of management they should hire a garbage collector to manage the funds. As you can see the public has been deceived and brainwashed by the brokerage community, government and the media, particularly CNBC. These investors have to be either stupid or brain-dead.
JMB
(04/08/01; 10:56:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 51581)
Prune Picker
The term "Prune Picker" came out of the Depression and refers to a native Californian. This has been my understanding for many years, but is it correct?
[USAGold has to be the most incredible forum in the entire world...now we're on a prune thing.]
turkey hunter
(04/08/01; 10:29:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51580)
Excerpt from up coming movie called "Golden Moon"
coming to a theatre near you.
Golden Control Room : "Golden Rocket T-60 seconds all systems go."
Golden Rocket: "Roger that, all systems up and ready. Golden engines online and ready to burn".
GCR: "T-30 seconds all systems on line and running."
GR: "Fuel pumps up and running. This is going to be one hell of a ride boys and girls.Buckle up."
GCR: "10 9 8 7 6 5 4 we have ignition 3 2 1 BLASTOFF All golden engines online and burning."
GR: "GCR this is GR. Altitude is 6000 ft and velocity is 1000ft per sec all systems go.Golden stage one coming in 15 sec. All systems go. Pulling 4 G's this golden rocket is
going what a feeling!!! 5 4 3 2 1 Golden Stage one completed burning 2nd stage golden engines. All systems go. Altitude 15,000 ft velocity 3000 feet per sec.
GCR : Roger that GR. All systems go.
GR: Stage 2 golden burn coming in 5 sec. 5 4 3 2 1; stage 2 golden burn done. All system go. We are in earth's golden orbit. Velocity 15,000 ft per sec.
GCR: OK GR keep it at that speed and in that orbit.
GCR: You copy that GR?
GCR: Come in GR. You are veering off course. Reset your GPS to standard orbit. Come in GR!!! Come in GR!!!!!!!!!
GR: "This is GR. WE have "Another" Astronaut that ye know not of. He says dare is gold on dat dare moon. So dis is where dis GR is gonna go. `Yes`. OUT!!
All engines shut down!!!! FOA tap that left golden thruster switch til ya can see dat moon in dat dare window and make sure it is in-line with dem dare cross hairs will ya. Break out the tata chips and salsa boys and girls. Enjoy the ride! Be careful of dat dare floating puke.
Some of the newbies got more than they could handle.
GR: "Come in GCR."
GCR: "We read you."
GR: "Hey boys don't call us will call you in 13 hrs. Over and out!!!"
Mr Gresham
(04/08/01; 10:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 51579)
Belgian
Better and better!
(I think we all welcome the intuition that you bring from the charts. Indeed, catching almost any of those trends in strength would have made us very comfortable. Those who did are probably enjoying sunny ocean views from a warm deck right now, rather than staring at a computer screen...)
(P.S. Are you sure about the T-bond?)
tedw
(04/08/01; 10:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51578)
day 8
http://www.usagold.com
Day 8
Remember, dont buy anything made in Red China today.
Spread the word.
Dont buy from the Butchers of Beijeng
Buena Fe
(04/08/01; 09:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51577)
Belgian (04/08/01; 04:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51573)
"I translate the charts with a building up of silent forces and tensions. As if everything is in the progress of comming into synchronisation and reciproque confirmation."
MY SENTIMENTS EXACTLY.........ALSO AGREE WITH YOUR ROUGH CONCLUSIONS!
KEEP WELL
slingshot
(04/08/01; 08:34:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51576)
VanRip Msg#51562 Rockgrabber Msg#51565
VanRip. I was referring to an E-Mail that was forwarded to
Peter Asher by a Californian and was not implying Peter Asher is from California. Sorry, Peter Asher, I will endeaver to make my posts more clearer.
Rockgrabber, Things sure are changeing and maybe not for the better. I agree this energy crisis is coming our way. Gold is DIRT CHEAP! Put some away for a rainy day.
Slingshot
Peter Asher
(04/08/01; 07:11:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51575)
Working Kirk
Not to worry
The mainstream E-media at least, has a plan!! Teach the "one way market herd" a new game. Now they can go after each other's money on the way down. This could be the ultimate suckers (Reverse) rally. A sheeple driven, momentum to the downside.
The hilarity of this is that when they get caught in a buy and hold short trap they will suddenly discover the difference between zero on the down side of a long position and infinity on the upside of a short!
Here's the spin---
Taking Advantage of Bear Market
Saturday April 7, 3:53 PM EDT
By Brendan Intindola
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Have you lost faith, and money, waiting for a stock
market turnaround?
Then maybe it's time to join the short sellers, the bears who have found a
honey pot in the U.S. equity rout, profiting from falling prices while most other
investors are swilling red ink.
Mutual funds that "short" the market, an easy way for individuals to profit from
market declines, have posted big gains in recent months, as stock prices have
declined.
By contrast, in the first quarter U.S. stock funds that own stocks, or are
"long" the market, have had the worst returns in more than two years as the
bearishness in technology stocks spread to the broader market.
But when the market is dropping, short sellers come out on top because they
have borrowed stock and then resold it on a bet the price will fall. If their bet
is right, they can buy the stock again after the price drops and then return it
to the lender, pocketing the difference as profit.
HEDGE LIKE THE PROS
Michael Sapir, chief executive of ProFunds in Bethesda, Md., a fund family with
$2 billion in assets that includes the red-hot UltraShort OTC, said these types
of short-selling investments are best used as a tactical, short-term hedge
within a larger portfolio.
The UltraShort OTC fund, up nearly 62 percent in the first quarter, is an
"inverse index fund" with a stated goal of returning twice the opposite
performance of the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). If the Nasdaq 100 index falls,
say, 50 percent in a given period, the fund would rise 100 percent.
"It is like an index fund on a mirror," Sapir said. "We can short individual
stocks, but that is not the most efficient way."
Short-fund portfolio managers often rely on so-called "put" options, which act
like insurance policies by giving the right to sell a stock at a set price by a
certain date.
Suppose IBM is trading at $92 per share and an investor thinks it will fall to
$90 by June. She might buy an IBM June 90 put, giving her the right to sell the
stock at $90. If the price goes to $82 per share, the value of that option
would increase. If the stock price rises, the investor would book the cost of
the contract as a loss.
Similar instruments exist for equity indexes, like the Standard & Poor's 500,
allowing portfolio managers to make bets covering broad market moves.
"We think these funds are good short-term tools. We don't think they are
buy-and-hold funds. People are using these funds to hedge a portfolio, just
like professionals have been doing for a long time," Sapir said.
"So if investors believe in the long-term prospects for tech stocks and would
rather not sell, they may want to put a hedge on for three to six months. So
you can have a good hedge against a market decline. It limits your upside
obviously, but it limits your downside too," Sapir said.
WEAKNESS IN NUMBERS
U.S. diversified stock funds fell 13.1 percent in the first quarter, according to
data from mutual funds tracking firm Lipper Inc. The decline is the worst since
the third quarter of 1998 when Russia's financial crisis and the near-collapse of
hedge fund Long Term Capital Management drove markets lower.
An average of about a dozen U.S. short funds prepared by Lipper showed a
gain of 28.6 percent in the first three months of 2001. And for the 12 months
ended March 31, the average gain was 75.2 percent.
From all-time highs reached in the first quarter of 2000, the Nasdaq composite
has fallen 67 percent, the Dow is off nearly 19 percent and the S&P 500, the
benchmark for judging investing pros, is down nearly 28 percent.
A NEWER OPTION, NOT WIDELY KNOWN
Over the last six months to a year, Sapir said, there are many relatively new
investors who have not experienced such sharp declines in stock prices. These
types of funds were not available during the last bear market.
"Most retail investors do not know how to short the bear market, and they
may not have the margin account to allow them to short. And if you are
dealing pension assets, even down to the individual level in IRA accounts,
generally you cannot short these accounts, but you can buy mutual funds," he
said.
PRUDENT BEAR: LOOK FOR DOW 3,000
David Tice, the Dallas-based manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, said he
believes U.S. stocks are just "in the early innings" of a significant decline.
Tice, whose $175 million fund gained nearly 16 percent in the first quarter,
said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial average to drop below 3,000 over
the next 12 to 18 months, and the Nasdaq composite to skid to below 500
over the same time period.
The Wall Street establishment, however, is betting on a comeback by stocks,
although targets for major indexes set by the brokerages have been pared
back recently.
An average of year-end targets forecast by the major sell-side houses has the
S&P 500 up 40 percent in 2001, the Dow gaining 33 percent, and the Nasdaq
composite rising 80 percent.
But in the bull-bear fight that is as old as the stock market, Tice swings a
clawed paw at the optimists. He points out the price-earnings ratio of the
broad market -- or the share prices of all S&P 500 stocks divided by the
group's combined "trailing" earnings per share for the previous 12 months -- is
still very high in historical terms.
"We started our fund (in 1996) because we felt the market was overvalued.
We still believe that we are just in the early innings of a decline," Tice said.
In bear cycles, as markets typically fall, rise, and fall again, price-earnings
multiples proceed from low to high and back to low, Tice said.
"Even with the Nasdaq down significantly, we believe this is nowhere close to
a bottom because we are selling at 24 times trailing earnings for the Standard
& Poor's 500." That is only 6 notches lower than the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 30
at the market's peak in 1999. In 1982, the ratio was as low as 7.
"It is like a pendulum -- you swing too far to the right, it is going to swing
back to the left. It was extreme euphoria that will probably end in extreme
despair," Tice said.
What about the longer-term benefits investors are expecting from three
interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to juice up the tottering
U.S. economy?
Tice hearkened back to the bear market of 1973-74.
The conventional wisdom "is after three cuts, the market has no where to go
but up. But, if you look at the 1973-74 period, by the time the market started
higher, the market was 70 percent off its highs and was selling at a P/E ratio
of 7."
The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates repeatedly over two years
beginning in late 1974. For the S&P 500, 1973 and 1974 are the only two
straight down years since 1950. The index fell 17.4 percent in 1973, and
nearly 30 percent in 1974. As the economy recovered, the S&P 500 gained
31.5 percent in 1975 and 19.1 percent in 1976.
While he declined to name specific short positions held by his fund, Tice said it
is "still short semiconductors, lots of tech companies, semiconductor
equipment manufacturers, and we are short financials -- subprime lenders,
money center banks and brokers."
What areas of the market will be spared the further mauling predicted by Tice?
"We think gold and silver mining companies will go higher, and defense
contractors will go higher," he said.
For the week, the Nasdaq Composite index fell about 120 points, or 6.5
percent to 1,720, the Dow Jones Industrial average lost nearly 90 points, or
0.9 percent, to 9,791 and the S&P 500 dropped almost 32 points, or 2.7
percent to 1,128.
©2000 Reuters Limited.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/08/01; 06:29:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51574)
2 Californias – courtesy of tedw's insight
There are 2 Californias (California and Kalifornia)
Rockgrabber is from California - Gray Davis is from Kalifornia
There are 2 Missouris
John Ashcroft is from Missouri - Mrs. Mel Carnahan is from Moscow
Respectfully
HBM
Belgian
(04/08/01; 04:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51573)
Understanding History, without its details ?
Yes Sir Gresham and Parsifal...that's what I'm trying to achieve, about Gold. Is 30 Years of Gold, already enough history or a detail ? Is 150 years reliable Dow figures, history or detail ? Don't think so...but the fall of the pound is an historical fact. I don't need its details and allow me to justify this unwilled arrogance.
The more we can " CHART ", a given amount of history,...the less details we need to guess its probabilities.
We were not able to chart the rise or fall of the Berlin wall. We cannot chart the outcome of the US/China acci(inci)dent.
But we can chart and inter-related (!) POG / DOLLAR/ OIL/ EURO/ etc...These charts are dipped into the sauce of Fundamentals and possible Theories. The academic work must be encapsuled with large amounts of intuition and gutfeeling, abundly provided on this forum.
This way, we are able to project future outcomes as we proceed in time. Trail fundamentals and Forum-ideas + Long Term charts are the tool-combination.
"Charts" are visual confirmation or contradiction of our detail-jigsaw. Charts are not to be mixed with statistics !
We are not looking for relationships "by chance".
The WA event is as important as the effect we visualised on the POG-chart. The impact and magnitude of importance is put into perspective of short and long time. What does the spike of 80$ in 1 month mean in the last 5 years of suspected strong manipulation ? And how does this event relates to the 30 years of charted POG. And do our conclusions fit into our different theories and fundamentals about gold ?
For this reason, I daily stare, repeatedly, at these Long Term charts, looking out for the dramatic changes I believe are in progress. It is not the news that is affecting things, but the reaction on this news that is ohhhh sooooo important. It is much more important to spot when and how the inter-relation between POG/POO, disrupted...than exactly knowing "WHY" it happened. Academics against Pragmatics. It is a pity that we cannot discuss these all important charts and their inter-relationships here on the forum.
Charting and interpretation of these numerical facts are often regarded as Voodoo. I am convinced it is not.
Will the dollar imitate the pound ? No idea. The pound-history only provides us with the knowledge that these things can happen. So, lets take the dollar-index chart from the lastest 30 years. Is this chart reliable ? No, because we can adjust the weighings of the different currencies over time. No problem, we filter this out by adding the USTB-30yrs + POG + DOW charts. And then we start the "interpretations" and linking them to our Fundamentals data bank. We all together see the 1980 milestone. The year of confluencing extremes : Dow/dollarindex Low - POG/IR High
Add the grams Au/Barril-chart and let's start the interpretation and relationship-speculation of the 30 year report on how was reacted (results) on all the news.
- Do we agree on a US-SM extreme ? Is the build-up of this extreme related to other parameters ? Yes it is. The exponential surge of SM-indices started in 1995. A corresponding ATL for the dollar-index and of course a high in POG (414$) and an heavenly environment of 15 years declining interest rates ( with a possible ATL in = ?)
Looking at POG ('80-'00) chart...it doesn't look as dramatic as we feel it is. The time lapse of 21 years is the dramatic factor, rather than an extreme in price. It is important to realise that the 10 years up ('71/'80) were much more dramatic, inclusive extreme, than the 21 year decline. This is telling us something fundamental. The POG chart(20 yrs) has the pattern of a Dome, without an explicit price spike. This corresponds with an opposite grail in the dollar-index with " NOT " the same characteristics ! The 1985 extreme (ATH). Intuitively, this is the reason why I'm expecting another extreme has to compensate the 1985 excess with an ATL. And there is no lack of fundamental reasons to avoid this from happening.
On top of this : SM-indexes are still very far from the bottom...the USTB-y30 is on the brink of an up-break (!?) and could confirm that the ATL is already in !?
Knowing very well that the charting and interpretation stuff is still very controversial, I will leave it here.
But not without the conclusion that we are indeed approaching some dramatic changes. I translate the charts with a building up of silent forces and tensions. As if everything is in the progress of comming into synchronisation and reciproque confirmation.
Practical gamblings (oeeegghfff) : POG : 250$ - 350$ (450$-zoefff)) breaking ranges. Dow/NAS/SP500 : Low-projections : 3.000/500/350 (don't shoot the pianist, please). USTB30 : concentrating on the 6,5% upbreak.
USdollar-index : 100 break >> disaster. POO is the joker.
USD/EURO : inverse SHS is intact. Leading goldmine-valuations show a 3 year (rocksolid=?) rounding saucer bottom. A rightout positive divergence with the 5 yrs dollar-index rise.
What has all this to do with the fundamental valuation of gold ? IMO it has everything to do with the UNDER_VALUATION of gold. They simply forgot to keep up with gold as an permanent Value. These things happen. We divorced Gold and will soon been remarried. Don't miss the wedding. Gone a be
a wonderfull feast.
working-kirk
(04/08/01; 03:37:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51572)
It going to be worse than you think
Hello, reading the posts, many seem to be gearing up for disaster. I think it will be worse than you think possible.
And the people here don't have a reputation as cheery
MSNBC commentators
I make this statement because from my observations, many of the sheeple are superstitious. Now with the one day sucker
rally on Thursday and the drop on Friday, the announcement of PGE bankruptcy, the tensions over between China and the United States, Everything but outright declaration of war in the Mid-East and more bad new I may have missed -
The sheeple are spooked. It will so little to have them stampede the stock market to a super crash.
So what so special about next week? It occurred to me, next week will have a Friday the 13th. If that didn't occurred to you, it a bet it will occur to the sheeple before Friday.
So what will be the bad news that happens next week?
1.) The major banks suffer financial crisis due to PGE
bankruptcy. Black Bart mentioned this has already started.
2.) The sheeple will get their 401k quarterly statement from the mutual funds and be shocked how much has
been lost.
3.) What would the week be without more earning warnings
and layoff news
4.) COMEX expiration is next Friday (guess who hasn't got
gold or silver especially silver. Comex was barely
able to squeak by last month. But I suspect a lot of
people will be taking during April a lot of delivery
of silver. Like Kodak for instance. There will be
June Weddings and Graduations and people will want to
take pictures. So for the just in time manufacturing
Kodak needs to take delivery now in April for those
June photos. There are other manufacturer who also
will need silver and take delivery in April. Plus
you have a whole lot bulls who want to drive their
truck to the nearest comex silver warehouse and haul
out anything not nailed down. There been one poster
here worried about somebody trying to stop here if he does that. Plus, randy or USAGOLD may confirm but
I hearing it is getting very hard for coin dealer to find silver to meet the demand.
My guess is Easy Al, will probably drop a 1/2 point between sessions. Many also have had their jaws drop open at the
open manipulation that went on last Thursday/Friday. I
tell you that piece of chicanery and others by the Price Protection team that made me wonder just what these people were capable of doing will look like bad card trick. You haven't seen nothing! The magcian/maestro has been warming up his audience. Now it is time for the grand act. You may have seen David Copperfield make Elephants, planes, buildings and other big things disappear.
Well the Maestro has bigger plans. He plans to make the entire world economy disappear. May I suggest you get all
the gold and silver you can before precious metals disappear
But I was talking about the upcoming Friday the 13th. Now imagine you're a sheeple and you get hit with all this bad news. It doesn't take much predictive power to see what they will do; those superstitious enough to believe:
Buy the dips
There will be a recovery in the second half
Don't panic
But there's two more big events coming. On April 15, the
tax man cometh. Because of all the bad news, what do the
sheeple do when they find out because of the bad quarter they
a.) Have a lot less money they thought they had
(You don't need to save in a bank, why a mutual fund is
just as safe)
b.) Because of creative accounting and the ever-changing
tax code not only do they own money, but thank to deferred payment, unpaid options on capital gains
they own 3 to 10 times more in taxes then they calculated?
The last event is China and the possibility of the situation
worsening. Now remember the Chinese are already upset about
our nagging them on Human rights and Taiwan, our bombing of their embassy a few years back, not to mention the subtle (and sometimes not so subtle racism.) that is displayed to Asians. They have long memories. Plus the fact the service personnel were spying and from my understanding of International law, China has the right to lock them up and throw away the key. I don't see how this situation can get better. I can see it getting a lot worse but not better.
For I remember it was the Chinese who gave us the curse: "May you live in Interesting Times." I think they are about to show us just
"How interesting!"
Artie Farkle
(04/08/01; 01:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 51571)
More prunes
Fresh or dried, a prune is a prune and is also a plumb but, not all plumbs are prunes. They are also gold on the inside just like the metal discussed here.
At one time I lived in the middle of a large prune orchard. Although I have eaten many and, they are quite good, I am not full of them. : )
All of that aside, I enjoy the depth and breadth of ideas expressed here.
Peter Asher
(04/08/01; 00:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51570)
VanRip (04/07/01; 20:18:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51564)
Thanks for straightening that out, I have only lived here twelve years but a native Oregonian would be really upset to be called a Californian even though his Granddad may have come from there. It's all part of the rivalry syndrome.
When I was in 1st grade the kids squared off over Roosevelt/Wilkie then in 5th grade it was Crosby/Sinatra and Yankee/Dodger. All part of the conditioning to divide and conquer.
One of my favorite philosophers wrote "Competition is a trick of the weak to fetter the strong."
Peter Asher
(04/08/01; 00:21:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51569)
Artie Farkle (04/07/01; 23:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51567)
Uhm, Artie, Prunes are dried plumbs. They may grow on trees in a sense, as only certain plumbs are prune plumbs. And, I suppose that when you prune a prune plumb tree you get more plumbs to dry into prunes. (:-)
tedw
(04/08/01; 00:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51568)
Truth
http://www.usagold.com
Al Fuchino:
No, we cant go around telling people the truth.There is no telling what might happen if we do.
Black Blade:
What does your crystal ball say about natural gas?
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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