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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/8/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

tedw (02/08/01; 23:37:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 47839)
Thanks
http://www.usagold.com
ET
Thanks for the Noland link

Lafisrap (02/08/01; 23:27:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47838)
Randy, RE: repo postings

In case you think it a good idea to include along with your Fed repo postings a short description of what a Fed repo is, here is the start of a short definition. It may need some changes, correction, touch up.

***
A Fed repo is a short-term loan from the Fed to a bank that would not otherwise meet the Federal Reserve requirements for checking/savings/etc. deposits. A repo is somewhat of an emergency loan wherein the Fed accepts collateral for the loan in the form of financial securities, [which are typically of what nature? bundled mortagaes? bundled credit card debt? T bills?]. When the bank is ready to pay back the Fed for the short-term loan, the Fed buys from the bank whatever was put up as collateral and then immediately turns around and sells the collateral back to the bank at a slightly higher price. In this way, the Fed collects its fee for the loan.

DaveC (02/08/01; 23:26:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 47837)
Pandagold, SLATT
Reread your post, "is no idiot" and this is what happens when we try to do three things at once.

No wild rides necessary. But no comment on my quote from Dr. Kurt?

Easy Al will be the most hated man in his country and maybe elsewhere. But to the sheeple, it will be for the wrong reasons. It will be for raising interest rates too much on 2000, not for the massive monetary and credit expansion.

ET (02/08/01; 22:57:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 47836)
Rich

Hey Rich P - sorry, I don't think it is available in text. A hundred bucks will get you in the sound biz. RealPlayer is available from the website listed in the previous post. Good luck!

Noland said he expects the credit bubble to burst within a few months but is quick to say he is astounded at the ability of the GSE's to continue to underwrite credit and the Fed's ability to reflate at will. He also said gold is the buy of a lifetime. He likes coins.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/08/01; 22:48:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 47835)
Well, we can see one reason why the Fed might have been so actively adding reserves via repos
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/nat017541.html
A review of the Federal Reserve's latest money supply report for the January 29 week...

We wonder if the $11.7 billion decline we see (which is largely contained within the M2 component of savings and small time deposits (and is therefore also reflected in the M3 decline shown)) represents foreign owned accounts leaving town. It's not so easy to otherwise explain how this specific element of the aggregate measurements can fall off the radar screen as we see happening here.

Quantities are expressed as $ billions

M1 = 1,106.3 . . . down 0.9
M2 = 5,000.2 . . . down 11.7
M3 = 7,194.2 . . . down 14.7

ORO (02/08/01; 22:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 47834)
Curious - Wanninski's error
Wanninsky is correct in his uderstanding of gold serving as the price guide for real goods and services on the international markets. The problems he does not address are those of disproportionate international debt and interest rate allocations on the one hand, and of the paper gold inflation and deflation cycles.

Thus, while dollar debt in America is serviceable by dollars created through fresh borrowing and by Fed "printing" liquidity, dollars are available abroad only from exports to the US and countries with a net positive financial dollar cash flow (holders of US and other dollar assets) and by creation of fresh dollar credit. There is no "printer of last resort" to replace dead dollars while dollar debt is paid down.

While he is right that the gold price is indicating a strong deflationary aspect of the dollar sector in the internaitonal monetary scene, he does not see the other side of the picture, that of a paper gold inflation ongoing since the dollar went off the gold standard in the progression 1968, 1971 and 1973. Which dates mark the following events, respectively, gold pool closes, dollar debased to 42 per oz instead of 35 and the exchange window closes, and finally, the dollar goes off the gold standard altogether.

Additionally, he does not see that the paper gold inflation is the result of the operation of central banks and is similar to the dollar inflation preceding the crack up of Bretton Woods - the "floating" of the dollar when no further dollars could be issued without a drain of gold reserves that would eliminate the reserves quickly and completely. Just as the gold pool operation drawing down gold reserves was hidden for over a decade, thus the draw down of bank's (and central bank's) reserves ongoing since 1980 is not being addressed by any of Wanninsky's papers.

He does not see the artificial low gold lease rate set by central bankers as causing a gold lending expansion greater than that of the 1920s, and that the gold credit bubble it created - where paper gold assets (both official and "black") have expanded to the point of setting a gold market price devoid of supply and demand effects for the metal itself. A system where dollar-gold contracts have expanded and displaced gold assets held by the global public with paper gold.

As a result of this, he does not see that the paper gold world is undergoing the initial stage of a bank run, where gold reserves are being spent quickly to supply gold for redemption of paper. This while fresh paper gold is still issued for liquidity purposes.

While real world pricing is adjusting to the gold price induced by paper gold inflation, there is a concurrent dollar deflation outside the US, which was strongly exacerbated by the initial Euro expansion displacing the normal dollar expansion, and the inability of the US consumer to absorb the product of new export production capacity in SE Asia, S America, and E Europe at the prices prevailing when the contracts to build this capacity were negotiated, financed (in dollars) and signed.

The main stumbling block to Wanninski's vision is the past paper gold inflation that is below his radar. Had central banks not caused it by supplying gold liquidity to support it, the paper gold bubble would have never occurred, and gold prices could have reflected the actual overall inflation of the dollar as it happened. Another and FOA, join Murphy and Veneroso in warning that the paper gold banking system has become unstable, and we are all awaiting the event of the gold bank run, the day when the last available gold in reserve is tapped and remaining reserves are locked up. When the event happens, no amount of tightening by the Fed will have an effect on the dollar-gold exchange rate, and with gold prices reflecting actual supply and demand at a time when demand for gold to replace defaulted gold paper is higher and supply is limited by low grading practices in the mines, the shock to general prices will be horrendous. Not only in dollar terms.

megatron (02/08/01; 22:42:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 47833)
Curious
Jude Wanniski wrote a book called "How the World works" which has a fantastic chapter about Bretton Woods. When you read the book though, you get the overwhelming impression that Mr. Wanniski LOVES GOV'T and LOTS OF IT!! Total central control junkie. Believes in a strange oxymoronic combination of gold standard and protectorate gov't stranglehold over economics(monitarist). Weird guy.

elevator guy (02/08/01; 22:17:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 47832)
@Pandagold
Yes, I also feel as if I am watching a stage show.

A few months back, I gave an opinion that met complete silence, where I stated that before the shorts give up theri positions, there would likely be a war. The foundation of the West, (the Fed), is not going to give up the dollar game which has benefitted them so well, so long.

Before they have to give it up, they will likely cause some war to happen, which will extend the timeframe of the dollar, as a worldwide reserve currency. (thanks, Trail Guide)

They have a lot of tricks up their sleeve yet, and lots of resources at their disposal.

Chris Powell (02/08/01; 21:50:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 47831)
More from South Africa, plus a big article in Afrikaans-language paper
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/648
GATA going right to the top in the
gold capital of the world.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Canuck (02/08/01; 21:32:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47830)
Gold Producers
Belgian took a friendly, little shot at AngloGold this morning and well I'm going to join in. I think it's a good time to take a few shots at the suppliers.

I'm sure the odd CEO wanders through this site from time to time just to see what the ACCUMULATORS are saying.

I would like to start with Pam Am Silver, yeah, PAA.TO. Your PR people told me that GATA was a 'gold thing', could not support GATA. Your stocks were sold.

Next is Placer; apparently you gave GATA $10,000 then recently, 'were neutral' on the 'Reg Howe' thing. Your stocks were sold.

My only US holding HGMCY, sold this morning due to break of promise 'never to hedge'.

ABX, dear ABX. AS a Canadian I am so proud to call you Canadian, not!!

AngloGold, the monster, number one, numero uno, chasing the S.A. darlings like my friend ABX; covering mon amies??

'THE PRODUCERS', in Feb. 2000 you guys dared the Masters into a 'short covering' rally and you failed. Now you are scared. I will tell you what's scarier, the ACCUMULATORS are wiser today, we pick and peck, and pick and peck at PHYSICAL and soon PHYSICAL will be scarcer and scarcer and one day, all of a sudden there will be NO PHYSICAL LEFT!!

Is this a threat, not by me of course, I'm a little guy scooping a ounce or two at a time. It's the thousands of us that's the issue. It is becoming quite clear that aligning oneself with an entity 'forward sold' NOT LEVERAGED to the imminent upturn in gold is not in one's best interest.

Watch and see, PHYSICAL is where it will be, mon ami.

SO what is your next ingenius step, SIRS? The situation grows urgent, yes? And don't shoot the messanger, I will buy mining stock if it's going up, this is a major predicament for all of us.

Show us 'future guidance'. This is a Y2K compliant rendition of 'show us the money'.

No hard feelings?

Canuck.

SHIFTY (02/08/01; 21:04:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 47829)
What's going on?
http://www.artbell.com/mediafiles/goingon.ram
I just saw how gold did today. The link says it all.

$hifty

R Powell (02/08/01; 20:51:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 47828)
E.T.
Written Noland report?

Help! I saw that Doug Noland interview mentioned elsewhere but my computer does not speak. If you know where, if at all, there is a text to access, please post.
This borg-like machine of mine will probably take total control when it learns how to talk. It's evolution is barely under control now. TIA
Rich

R Powell (02/08/01; 20:41:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 47827)
Article on George Soros

on page 45 of Time Magazine, Feb. 5th 2001 says that George is worried but making money.
"What if we are foolish to be congratulating ourselves on having cured recessions in the same way we once tackled smallpox? Soros, who made a fortune looking for and finding mistakes, worries we are making one now. He picks up on these errors by listening to his money. These days he doesn't like what he hears."
The article says he makes money by spoting mistakes and then capitalizing on them. He sees a big one in the economy now. Wonder where his money is now?
Rich

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (02/08/01; 20:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 47826)
Curious,.........Mideast Oil
At this point only the depth of the ocean limits those areas for intensive exploration. Also, when the POO reaches $50+ secondary production from spent fields will commence.

When one considers the ability of the Persian Gulf states to manipulate the price of oil, they have their greatest weapon in the price of production. The price of production is as close to nothing as it gets. It is not uncommon for their fields to possess oil columns of over 500 feet. The wells are also pressure driven. It does not get any simpler. Open the spigot. Close the spigot. Only their exercising discipline in limiting income in the short term is needed in order to put strong upward pressure on the POO. If the gulf state members of OPEC tow the line, the world will pay.

ET (02/08/01; 20:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 47825)
Doug Noland
http://www.mcalvany.com/mir.html

A must listen - the credit bubble, energy, equities, the dollar, gold, derivatives, interest rates and more!

goldfan (02/08/01; 20:32:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 47824)
The currency rewards of wealth

In 1970 or thereabouts, I bought some cases of a first growth Bordeaux for $12 per bottle. I see the same growth today, vintage 1996, advertised at $495 per bottle. So my wine, which I count as "wealth" and which I drink on high celebration occasions, has appreciated at the annual rate of 13%. Not bad! But this is just at the replace cost. And I have been offered sums in the neighbourhhood of $1500 per bottle for my wine by a restaurateur friend, so nicely finished and incredibly drinkable as it now is. I have no idea whether this is a fair price, I don't have to go to a restaurant to dine well and need not pay for a 30 year old wine in any case. However, this "market value" has appreciated at the rate of 19% per year!!!

Now in 1970 I would have exchanged about 1/3 oz. of gold per bottle for a wine which today would equate to about 5 oz. gold per bottle. So having stored my gold as wine, without requiring of myself any of the fearful calculations and anxieties of any of the "paper" methods of holding it, I can have, if I choose, 15 oz. of gold for every oz. I laid down then. Never mind that, I get a huge pleasure at drinking up my liquid gold. And I may leave a couple bottles for my children and friends to remember me with.

FWIW

Goldfan

Mountain Top (02/08/01; 20:13:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47823)
Don't Look back, something may be following you.
Despite the many parallels between today's economy and 1929 as most ably laid out by many on this forum, most people determinedly elect not to see the perils of repeating those same actions. At the same time, despite the fact that fiat money has precipitated a disaster every single time throughout history that it
has been instituted is completely ignored. I am in awe of the lemming-like attitude of otherwise intelligent and discerning creatures who can will themselves not to look back because it does not fit in with their view of the world. They also refuse to see the precipice they are rushing toward for the same delusional reason. An unbiased glance over the shoulder at what has gone before shows us that gold has been the store of wealth that has bridged human tragedy for millenia.

Curious (02/08/01; 19:59:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 47822)
previous post link did not work. http is not capitalized.
http://www.polyconomics.com
Works better if http is not capitalized.

Curious (02/08/01; 19:45:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47821)
The relationship of the price of gold, oil and the dollar and the supply of oil.
HTTP:www.polyconomics.com/
I have been lurking here for several months and this is my first post. I have followed the writings of Another, FOA, Trail Guide and the other fine posters here and thought I was beginning to understand. I had bought the premise that the supply of oil in the ground is declining, production will peak between 2005 and 2010 and energy scarcity will have a major impact on our future. That may be an incorrect premise. I have recently found information in the articles listed below that the United States is the only country where the minerial rights are owned by the surface owner while the government owns the mineral rights in almost every other country. This has a drastic impact on the desire to look for and produce the oil and natural gas that may be there. Future energy supplies here will depend on Mexico. The premise is that Mexico has similar geology to Texas and has vast undiscovered reserves of oil and natural gas that have not been explored, found and exploited. A government agency does not have the incentive, resources, and political will to risk limited resources to find, develop and produce the mineral resources and there may have been a reluctance by foreign investors to risk money there and risk confiscation at a later date. The new Mexican President Vincente Fox appears to be relatively free of corruption compared to previous leaders so the risk may be less now than before.

The main question considering these articles is what is the potential oil and natural gas supply in Mexico, South America and other areas that have not been fully explored? Are these resources waiting to be found or is this premise in error and energy supplies will peak and decline by 2010 according to the Hulbert curve? It will be difficult to accurately project the value of the dollar, the availability and price of oil and natural gas, the price of gold, and the direction that the economy is going (inflation, deflation, stagflation, energy shortages, energy abundance etc.) until this is figured out. If the major players assume that there will be no oil shortages, or if there will be shortages that have not been considered, the predictions and assumptions will be less than reliable.

These comments are based on 3 articles on the Polyconomics site in the above link entitled: Memo on the Margin Getting Energy from Mexico dated February 6, 2001, a related link Supply Side University, Summer Session, Lesson # 8 dated September 3, 1999, and Memo on the Margin The Drag of Monetary Deflation dated February 7, 2001. The author is Jude Wanniski. Is he a reliable writer or does he have a poor grasp of the situation such as may be indicated by his lack of consideration and discussion of the fact that gold prices may be manipulated?

The third article above makes the point that the gold price over time determines the general price level with a similar relationship between oil, gold and the dollar as explained by Another and FOA. The article stated that the gold price -over time- determines the general price level. When it was at $35 per oz. in 1950, a surburban tract home sold for $10,000. When it went to $350, the same tract home sold for $100,000. The average gold price over the last decade is $350. If prices have to adjust to $265, the adjustment will require a series of declines in corporate earnings, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, until the whole economy is adjusted to the lower gold price. It should be noted that this article ignores or does not appear to believe in the premise that the price of gold is manipulated so the whole analysis may be in error for the failure to recognize that things are not as they were.

The middle of the first page of the September 3, 1999 article is an interesting discussion of how future oil prices are established and of the 300 million missing barrels of oil. This may help explain the wide swings in prices.

The availability or nonavailable of significant oil and natural gas in Mexico that could possibly start coming on line in 5 or 10 years could have a substantial impact on fuel and electricity costs in California which will also impact the economy of the remainder of the United States.

I would like to throw this up for discussion on this forum. Are there huge undiscovered oil and natural gas resources in Mexico or is this wishful thinking? Is this availability or nonavailability already factored into the current price of oil, natural gas, gold and the dollar or is it a left field event not yet considered? If true, this could substantially reduce dependence on Middle East oil.

Perhaps Shiek Yamanni, former Oil Minister in Saudi Arabia during the 1973 Oil Crisis was on target when he predicted last fall that oil prices would fall substantially again within the next 5 years to around $10 per barrel? I do not remember the details but I thought it odd that a person with his knowledge, background and former position as an official in Saudia Arabia would make such a statement.

I will be looking forward to responses to these articles as they should generate a lively debate.

goldfan (02/08/01; 18:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 47820)
@Randy (@ The Tower) msg#: 47720)
Randy (@ The Tower) msg#: 47720)
but "profit"?

Thanks for your many contributions to our understanding of the monster of recording, calculating, and regulatory and trading artifice we have built in our time, which we loosely term economics (what do we "economize", except maybe common sense?).

I've put some quotes from your stuff in>>><<< and my thoughts following.

>>>>I believe as people come to better terms with the meaning of "profit", their enhanced understanding will clarify the important role of gold in their financial lives.

Many people make a big mistake when they buy into the notion that "money makes money". How, by "profits"? What is that, interest or something else?<<<<

Concerning "profit". I have thought that making money on money, that is "usury", maybe in the long run creates more problems than it solves. If a person lends 5 pieces of gold and gets six in return, either he/she has concentrated the gold ownership, which is not a good thing, or , he/she has contributed to inflation, also not a good thing. Its better to gift the five pieces, and get repayment only, when that can occur from a productive investment of the gold. I'm not sure why I believe this, but I note than in a recent piece about ancient economic habits, Trail Guide said the gold pieces were used daily to facilitate trade, not as stores of wealth. Some how I think this is in line with my ideal of a "no interest" economic regime.

Also this bit from a recent post by yourself is also relevant, and a thought I am really attracted to.

>>>A thinking person recognizes that currency serves only to lubricate the system of trade by eliminating the inefficient constraints of barter. As it can be borrowed easily into existence, this person knows currency is no manner of wealth. The distinction is subtle but important. This person strives with lifelong effort to accumulate *wealth* for its meaningful role in securing the wellness of being in an ever-changing and uncertain world. But where this "lubricant" is concerned in the course of his life's wealth-building efforts, our thinking person's great understanding results in a desire to accumulate and retain a quantity of currency that does not significantly exceed the needs to facilitate his immediate purchases.<<<

Economists would never define wealth the way you do. If they did,their discipline, would be seen as no science, they would have nothing out of which to spin their elaborate weavings of theories, no way to extract enormous sums from the universities and governments and corporations who hire them. Out of a job!! O woe!! Have to sharp up the web design skills (Even there, the most widely used tool is named "dreamweaver").

Many years ago a First Nations Elder named Black Elk said that on his first journey as a young man into the white man's great city of New York, he was astonished to find the place absolutely full of people swarming like ants, more than he had ever imagined could exist in one place, all striving to get more than they needed.

To me, this better defines the culture in which I mostly live, than any other single observation. Your thought quoted here echoed Black Elk in my mind.

FWIW

Goldfan

Trail Guide (02/08/01; 17:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47819)
I must post tomorrow.
TrailGuide

RossL (02/08/01; 16:36:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 47818)
Carl H - your #47727 from yesterday

It's a nice scenario, but I have a different hypothesis for section 4:

The central bankers believe that gold can be held down forever. They are filled with arrogance and hubris, and believe their lies just like Clinton believed his lies. The central bankers believe that a fiat money system based on debt can be controlled if the right buttons are pushed and levers pressed. They believe the lie about the "barbarous relic".

I believe that the fiat debt money system will inevitably fail just like it has every other time in the history of the world. The system requires exponential increases in the money supply to pay the interest on the debt, while the central bank attempts to control the money supply with market interventions are crude and heavy-handed interventions that lack the knowledge that would come from a free market in money.

The market interventions will fail, ultimately, because politics will not allow the bank to contract the money supply for any length of time. The central bank system is an attempt at central planning just like the economies of communist countries are centrally planned.

Sorry for the rant, <grin> but the central bankers will not voluntarily let gold free because their world will crash down if and when it is set free.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/08/01; 16:08:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 47817)
Rich, my reply on this euro biz with the Fed
You asked, "is this a Fed policy statement in general or is it specific just to the Reserve Bank of New York?"

The New York Reserve Bank is the single bank designated by the System's Federal Open Market Committee to directly manage the joint System Account with all such operations conducted by the Special Manager for foreign currency on behalf of the 12 Reserve Banks.

You asked, "Do you view this new policy (if that's what it is) coming from a new administration in Washington?"

I see it more than anything else as growing acknowledgement that the euro is here to stay, and further to that end, as acknowledgement that "a euro by any other (legacy) name (e.g. mark, franc, guilder, schilling) is still a euro."

SALMON (02/08/01; 15:54:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 47816)
Abby's right - it's too cold to shop
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010208/c6.html

I was just on my way out the door to test drive a new Bently and happened to notice the outside thermometer was -10 degree Celsius. No way - definitely too cold for a test drive - and as for shopping, that will have to wait until July.

R Powell (02/08/01; 15:35:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47815)
Feds buying Euro debt
Randy

Concerning the Fed's plan "to widen their holdings of foreign government securities to include debt issued by euro countries", is this an increase of holdings or did the Fed not have any euro securities before. Also, is this a Fed policy statement in general or is it specific just to the Reserve Bank of New York?
Do you view this new policy (if that's what it is) coming from a new administration in Washington?
As always, thanks for the daily money supply watch and for all your excellent efforts. I'm reading and learning as best as I can.
Rich

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/08/01; 15:24:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47814)
Give the gift of gold. Any putz can give chocolate and roses.
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
And this holds true throughout the year...birthdays, graduations, anniversaries, etc.

But for Valentine's Day specifically (which is next Wednesday), you've got less than two hours to call Marie for timely delivery. Get after it!

R Powell (02/08/01; 15:22:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 47813)
Sierra Madre, tedw and all

Reading yesterday's discussion from Ross L's #47721 to the end should clarify a good many questions concerning market "stoppers" and "delivery". This discusses some of the workings of the paper gold market.
Also, please note Carl H's #47727 which I believe presents a plausible scenario in which the powers-that-be that have been hammering the POG for so many years might want (and be working toward) to reverse entirely. Imagine the Central and Bullion Banks actively promoting higher prices!? Worth thinking about.
Hope this helps
Rich

Pandagold (02/08/01; 15:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 47812)
It may happen quicker than I expected

When I posted my #47044 "Turbulent Year Ahead" I said the odds of what I fear will happen were about 50/50 I now raise the odds 60/40.

A car bomb went off in the Jewish quarter of Jerusalem. The Israelis were dancing in the streets with joy. No one was killed � just a few minor cuts and bruises. (Now I wonder who set that one off?)

Immediately Sharon makes a threatening speech � and that is why they were dancing and singing in the street as they held aloft a supposed piece of the car.

Here is the powder keg if ever there was one.

If trouble does flare up this time, it will inflame the whole region. Now I wonder what the US will do? It presents so many opportunities, and this is what worries me.

The choreography is so predictable, but so professional, and well timed

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/08/01; 15:15:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 47811)
U.S. central bank moves toward euro
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/nat017540.html
HEADLINE: NY Fed says U.S. to diversify euro zone securities

From Reuters---

NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday that U.S. monetary authorities plan to widen their holdings of foreign government securities to include debt issued by euro zone countries other than Germany.
+
Historically, the German mark and the Japanese yen were the only foreign currencies held by U.S. monetary authorities, along with securities issued by Japan and Germany, the world's No. 2 and No. 3 economies after the United States.
+
But given the introduction of the euro in January 1999, authorities plan to reflect a broader spectrum of euro-denominated securities issued by sovereign euro zone nations, the New York Fed said in its quarterly report to Congress.
-----------

From the article, we are told that at the end of the fourth quarter U.S. monetary authorites (Fed and Treasury) held $16.5 billion in yen and $14.75 billion in euros.

((By way of contrast with the U.S., the Eurosystem of Central Banks holds a massive 260.8 billion euro value in foreign currency assets...and an unparalleled quantity of gold assets carried at 118.6 billion euros in value.))

Further, during that past quarter the value of the euros rose while the value of the yen fell. Translated, the dollar depreciated against the euro by 6.4 percent, whereas the dollar rose against the yen by 5.7 percent. Against currencies of our other trading partners, the dollar fell by an average of one percent on a trade-weighted basis.

tg (02/08/01; 15:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 47810)
aztec d'oro - article from Le Metropole
A GOOD READ

Worrisome FIG....Productivity, What Productivity ? !!!!
At the end of October 2000, we were discussing the then alarming trend of the Future Inflation Gauge, as it stood then at -2.4% revised for September 2000, down from a high of 14.4% in April. In the space of just 5 months, the FIG had reversed course to by a staggering 16.8 points.

The trend continued, and four months later, the FIG for January 2001 stands at -12.3%, down a whopping 9.9% in just 4 months.

The ECRI said that inflationary pressures in the economy appear to be easing as economic activity continues its downward swing. To the author that is an understatement of a large magnitude. Prices are going to collapse as debt collapses if the FED eases even a little bit of the pressure exerted on the gas pedal of monetary creation.

The ECRI's index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation fell to 112.4 in January from an upwardly revised 114.5 in December. The smoothed annualized growth rate of the index fell to -12.3% in January from -10.0% in December.

The gauge was pulled down in January by slower growth in real estate loans, a drop in purchasing managers reporting slower deliveries and the return of the yield spread to positive territory.

It seems to the author that the economic variables are fluctuating wildly and in a short period of time as a consequence of the failed monetary inflationary policies of the FED. The system is starting to become Unstable and in need of ever increasing quantities of attention and liquidity, as M3 has increased the not insignificant quantity of 210 billion over the last weeks, or 19.6% yearly growth rate.

As we have seen previously, the Personal Savings rate is on a negative downtrend that started about 5 years ago and it stood at -0.8% in December of 2000. That means Americans spent more than they were making. Funny how they started to go down as Mr. Rubin became Treasury Secretary and the stock market started to rocket at the same time following the M3 explosion.

No savings, no available funds for investment. Now, the FED is furiously trying to convince the consumer that they should spend. At least that is what the latest 1% cut in interest rates suggests, and this is confirmed by the comments of Mr. McTeer of the Dallas Fed. They are trying for the consumer to recover a bit of lost confidence with these measures.

But how is the consumer going to spend more if he is already spending more than what he makes ? And what about the sinking Financial Investments in the stock market ? More Debt ? Doesn't that mater ? And the Dollar which is in the verge of a major collapse in purchasing power ?

Meanwhile the strong dollar policy continues to wreak havoc on the external accounts with a huge Trade Deficit. And the Capital account must be turning south now together with the fortunes of the Stock Market.

An Economic System must be able to produce capital, if it is to satisfy the wants and needs of its people. To produce capital, people must be willing to save, which releases resources for use elsewhere. To the economist, saving means the absence of spending, while savings refers to the dollars that become available in the absence of consumption.

Therefore, the author sees a contradiction from the part of the FED. They are trying to arrest Recession, or Depression for that matter, by exacerbating consumer spending, which in turn will assure that our landing is an Impossible one as no savings will be made at all !!!!

Where is the FED going to get the necessary savings now to prop up the economy ? Since they are not being produced internally, perhaps they could be found externally. However, the Stock Market vacuum cleaner is not being too successful lately in bringing foreign savings. So, perhaps they could try to raid some unsuspecting country like South Africa ?

The Weekly Leading Indicator Index, is a composite index made of 7 statistical series that usually turns turns down before real GDP turns down, and turns up before real GDP turns up. The WLI was a disaster during December, with an average growth for the month of -3.7. That would mean, all things being equal, that March or April GDP growth rate would be about 3.7% less than it was in December.

The author has plotted some variables since 1994 to try to predict some trends. In all that time, never have the three variables plotted gone down at the same time, except in Q2 of 1998 and Q4 2000. However, this time it looks as if the trend of Q4 2000 is going to be continued in Q1 2001 and with much steeper falls as compared to 1998.

GDP and FIG have been on a steady down trend since December 1999. Apparently the high values of December can be attributed at least partly to the massive Y2K monetary explosion. However, the Weekly Leading Indicator WLI, joined the FIG and actual GDP trend in October 2000. Too many variables going down at the same time. NAPM, Confidence indicators, you name them. The only indicator left to correct appreciably is the dollar.

In order to try to avoid this from happening, the Cabal is desperately trying to hammer Gold one more time.

Last week, economist Lawrence Kudlow went on the air on CNBC hammering repeatedly that since the price of gold was low it meant that inflation was contained; therefore he argued that the FED had even more room to maneuver with monetary policy and he suggested that they should continue to ease for this reason in the near future.

Then last Tuesday, CNBC went on air again with a lot of Gold commentary, this time suggesting that the price would stay subdued or that it would go down due to increased hedging by some South African mining companies, perhaps encouraged by the fall of the Rand. Apparently, now they are too savvy and comment on the hedging as a matter of fact as they are trying to convince the few out there that know the truth, that it isn't worth it to go against the current.

All that the author can say, is that they were wrong with the Nasdaq, wrong with their calls on Tech and Internet (Cisco for example, or perhaps Etoys, Amazon, etc.) and the "New" Economy. Therefore, they are apt to be wrong in the Gold issue of hedging and its price as they have been wrong about energy. They do not even want to mention GATA or the lawsuit against the Gold Suppressors. It appears that they cannot pinpoint the position of the sun even in broad day-light. They will be wrong about the Dow, the Dollar and Gold. And they will have their excuse, make no mistake about it: An unforeseen "exogenous" event.

Now, let's go back to one of Mr. Greenspan's and the BLS favorite numbers. Labor Productivity can be defined as the rate of growth of output per unit of labor input. Yesterday, Productivity for Q4 was released and it came at 2.4%. Last month we forecasted it would not exceed 2.5%.

Productivity.....the magic word. Even the FED keeps bolstering this myth as in their last Press Release on January 31st, to justify their cut of 50 basis points on interest rates, they said: "The longer-term advances in technology and accompanying gains in productivity, however, exhibit few signs of abating, and these gains, along with the lower interest rates, should support growth of the economy over time".

Well, the author has some news for the reader. We can play and read statistics as well, and we are not buying the FED statement for one minute.

History tells us that the growth of labor productivity has been somewhat uneven. From 1959 to 1973, the labor productivity index increased at an annual compound growth rate of 2.36% a year. From 1974 to 1998, however, the productivity rate averaged only 1.15 % a year, or about half of the previous trend.

Could it be that the higher energy prices, as in the 1973 oil shock, brought on by the dollar collapse as it defaulted on GOLD had anything to do with it ? We have stated on previous essays that productivity and therefore GDP seemed to be Hedonized by the relentless understatement of TRUE Inflation.

And what about the fabulous 2000 productivity figures of 3.6% or 4.3 annualized rate as per the BLS report ? Suspect numbers to say the least....

Because how can they be true if the economy is imploding right now ? Garbage in, Garbage out. Even the 1% cut in interest rates is not working as expected, as banks have tightened their credit standards and it is getting more difficult to get a loan. What is happening is that Banks and Financial Institutions in trouble are being bailed out once more by the increasing spreads.

The current Gas and Oil prices readjustments are no more than the expression of what is wrong in the US economy and the reflection of the policies that are being implemented. Yesterday, oil went up again above $31 per barrel, even though inventories rose by 3 million barrels.

Could it be that the markets are nervous as the North Sea had a shutdown for 1 day of about 1 million barrels a day due to cold weather a couple of days ago ? Or could it be that there are simply too many M3 freshly minted dollars available to pay for it ?

The current Energy Crisis of California will pale to what will be experienced next summer, as air conditioners are put on across the nation. The Final Days of reckoning have arrived and only those prepared and with knowledge will survive.

Go GATA, Go Physical Gold !

"Azteca de Oro"

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/08/01; 14:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 47809)
Pick up the real wealth of metal in the shadow of the latest derivatives selloff.
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
Thanks again to the selling of paper gold during New York trade, metal can be had (while it lasts) at very friendly prices. Centennial's online offer of Swiss Confederatios now reflect this latest gift from NY. Order online, or call the office for access to the complete line of gold available. Get you some!

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (02/08/01; 14:42:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 47808)
ALL, .....ref. #47803
I have not been able to read much about deflation other than the effects in the US during the Great Depression. The article references the declining POG as proof of deflation. What I do not understand is: How can deflation in a economy as a whole persist if there is no control on the pumping of fiat currency into the system?

I thought the deflation experienced by the US in the 1930s was a result of the strangulation of credit which removed liquidity. I can't see how the politicians could display such discipline with the printing presses, if their constituents were experiencing their real assets plummeting in value by 90%. The last such upheaval brought us the New Deal, and robbed politicians and most voters of any common sense in its continuance. Other than a war that devastates the economies of your competitors (i.e. a "clean" wiping of the slate if you will) how does an economy as large as the US escape systemic true deflation of the 1930s variety or worse?

Pandagold (02/08/01; 14:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 47807)
SLATT DaveC

Now before we get into another one of these wild rides. I know exactly what DaveC means. I think (I hope) he knew what I meant. Remember the difference between a terrorist and a freedom fighter is decided by which side of the fence you are sitting on - or something like that.

Greenspan is a nutcase from most of our points of view - though, no doubt a very educated one. But to those he is working for - they don't come any better.

This is why I keep saying you have to understand everything in context and not pick one piece and translate literally.

The same when translating from a foreign language.

As I say, I believe that Dave C was commenting from understanding the essence of the message

Also read my post - going down with his ship

Pheew ( I hope I got in in time)

Gandalf the White (02/08/01; 14:21:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 47806)
OK -- So the April COMEX contract is not SPOT !
But SPOT the dog was the only one that was effected !
<;-(

Gandalf the White (02/08/01; 14:19:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 47805)
WOWERS ! Who dumped on SPOT in the last half hour ?
http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/applet.asp?symbols=&mode=
TYPE "gc1j" in the "sym" box, hit return, and look at that !
Send out the sluths !
GS selling those "stops" (calls for delivery) they made on those Feb contracts ?

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (02/08/01; 14:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 47804)
DaveC,.......check Pandagold's post #47782 again
He stated in reference to AG that ".....I believe the man is no idiot."

AG IMHO has secured himself a sad place in history.

Pandagold (02/08/01; 14:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 47803)
DaveC and All It's that man again
www.miningweb.com (kitco)

Posted: 2001/02/9 12:00 AM EST
Low gold price shouts for Greenspan's attention

NEW YORK -- Is it my imagination, or is there a resurgence of interest in the gold standard? I'm not talking about theories of a conspiracy to make gold about as valuable as tin, but earnest debate about the need to stabilize the international financial system by fixing it to a neutral commodity.

Gold couldn't be neutral in the 1970s and 1980s because it would have rewarded the Soviet Union and South Africa � the world's primary gold producers at the time � for unacceptable behaviour. Both systems have since been reformed and there is no obvious argument for continuing to rely on the US Federal Reserve to keep the dollar honest.

The dollar's honesty is at the heart of the debate. Its fortunes are a function of American political activity whereas gold has relative independence. It's a commercial bridge between nations without treading on their sovereignty. At the same time it is immune from the stupidity of governments and imposes external discipline. For example, had the dollar remained as good as gold, the US would not have been able to finance the Vietnam War and shift the burden to the rest of the world.

The stop-and-go gyrations of the last few years where successive Asian crises paralleled an unprecedented speculative bubble on Wall Street, seems to be driving dissatisfaction with the dollar as numeraire. Also, don't underestimate the impact of the Nobel Prize for economics awarded to Canadian economist Robert Mundell in 1999.

When the US disconnected the dollar from gold in the late 1960s, Mundell was a lone voice warning of the danger of floating exchange rates. He predicted, in the face of considerable ridicule, that the world would eventually shift back to a gold standard by 1980. He was dead wrong on that account, but his work on gold as an independent monetary marker is remarkably prescient.

Jude Wanniski, one-time editor of the Wall Street Journal and advisor to Ronald Reagan who coined the term "supply side economics" underscored the importance of Mundell's work this week in a note he circulated to subscribers to his Polyconomics site.

Mundell identifies gold as an exact price level indicator independent of the real economy. A declining price can mean only one thing � deflation. Even though gold is no longer a unit of official exchange, Wanniski shows that it still retains its price function.

For example, the change in the gold price from $35 in 1950 to $350 an ounce into the 80s matched precisely a tenfold increase in US national debt. Similarly, homes that cost $10,000 in 1950 increased to $100,000 over the same period. Gold's decline to less than $300 an ounce since 1996 has been matched by rising US budget surpluses.

Wanniski warns that if the US government tolerates gold drifting below $270 an ounce, then we can expect: "a series of declines in corporate earnings, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, until the whole economy is adjusted to the lower gold price. Unless the problem is fixed, it could drag the administration down with it."

In other words, if Greenspan paid attention to gold, he would have realized that excess liquidity was not the problem over the last two years, but quite the reverse. The Fed has been supplying the markets with the wrong medicine because its diagnostic tools are wrong. It was intent on fighting inflation when it was already deceased.

Wanniski argues that interest rates were cut unnecessarily since the inverted yield curve on US Treasuries was already doing its job. By cutting rates, Greenspan caused a contraction on top of deflation which is going to take a mighty effort to undo.

"The contraction part can be overcome by lowering short-term interest rates or cutting marginal income-tax rates and capital-gains taxation. The deflation part of the problem can only be rectified by having the Fed add sufficient liquidity to cause gold to climb back over $300. Otherwise, there will be an slow, grinding, downward adjustment of all dollar prices -- the mirror image of the slow, grinding upward adjustment of all dollar prices that we knew as
the inflation of the 1970s."

Wanniski says the problem can be corrected quickly by stabilizing "the dollar value of international gold reserves (in Fort Knox) at perhaps $300 or $320."

This is not quite a return to the gold standard, which even Mundell now thinks is unachievable in an official sense, but it would be a significant step closer. By the way, Mundell believes gold can "become a non-governmental unit of account and means of payment for ordinary transactions and the Internet. It would then serve as a check on inflationary governments."

Wanniski's wish is unlikely to ever get a serious hearing since Milton Friedman still has such a grip on official economic thinking. He despises gold in the modern context where governments play such a central role in the economy and has advocated the sale of all gold reserves over five years.

"No major country would tolerate the discipline of a real, effective gold standard," Friedman said last year in an interview with Canada's National Post. Indeed, but that just reinforces the point that it is politically undesirable when it may in fact be financially necessary.

DaveC (02/08/01; 13:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 47802)
Pandagold (2/8/2001; 7:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 47782)
Pandagold, not only do I agree with you that Easy Al is an idiot, but he is a 74-years-old dangerous idiot.

Here is a quote from Dr Richebacher's newsletter last year. It's one of my favorites:

In the 1970s, "Easy" Al (running his own economic advisory service) stated that he would love to be head of the Fed when the Kondratieff Cycle was due to end in the late 1980s. He was quite sure that he could overcome the deflationary impact of the cycle by injecting sufficient credit (debt) into the system to offset deflation. He ended by saying that should he fail to achieve his objective, there was a chance that when the cycle did end, the resulting depression would be by far the biggest the world has ever known.

He did become head of the Fed. The amount of credit he has pumped into the system has been on a scale never before seen in economic history. So far, he has been successful. In the end, his final statement will prove correct. END

Greenspan thinks he can continue to pump money just at higher costs. He is doomed to fail and go down in history as the best known and most hated fed chairman ever.

Belgian (02/08/01; 12:51:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 47801)
Overhang....Conspiracy...adult fantasy !!
Yes, non Washington Agreeers, sold and/or are still selling goldreserves ! This was surely unexpected ? Were these, generally poor nations, forced to dollarise ? Was (is) their goldsale a conditio qua non ? The interesting part of the story is not ment for Indaba-ears. And we still are not hinted about the goldseller nations for the next 5 (hedging) years. Do the Indaba boys have a plan of action to counter these disturbing sales ? Yes,! Anglogold urges them to close ailing mines ! They give the good example and sell their (unprofitable) mines to entrepeneurs (Swaenepoel) who are going to dig, eagerly, for more gold on offer. After all, they have to pay back as fast as possible...with increased ...hedging, yes again !
PPPFFFFTTTT...what a logic ! Boring isn't it.

It is the complete irrationnal behaviour of goldproducers and Central Banks, that is a wellcome feeding bottom for conspiracy and other theories.
If the gold, above ground, on offer is so hughe in amount and time...why don't they simply reduce the underground amount, offered ? Is the 1% lease rate so irresistable ?
Is there a possibility of intense intro-spection, at the Indaba conference ?! Is "adult fantasy" an appropiate insult on the right moment ? Are we getting infantilisized ?

Gresham/Sierra/Canuck/Carl/Panda :

Banking crisis : over-papered with you know what fiat.Cfr.
Japanese bankrun of '95. It was '29 revisited with long cues waiting at closed banks, relieved when the trucks of freshlu printed paper arrived !

Supranational financial masters : give me one (1) piece of evidence that secret forces are accumulating gold ! Sorry, IMO, you can't impossibly accumulate large amounts of physical gold without a price-spike. If someone has a clear cut system on this, please feel free to communicate. The goldworld is tooooooo small to be succesfull in such an attempt. Remember what happened sept. '99 !

Bancrupting miners: Anglogold and the majority of its unknown (nominees) shareholders, is not the kind of underdog you can fool around. They have the force to make or break governments. (Ghana and Ashanti)(De Beers and Angola/Liberia/Congo). Let us be realistic.
On top of that...another 100 years of gold exploration-reserves is proven in SA's underground.

Scary Low prices : Low prices are not at all scary for gold-investors and movers ! On the contrary...they adore it.
But if the expressed "OVERHANG" is Known...why entering the market NOW, for the rocket trip to da moon ?
Most probably, they have been focussing on Palladium/Rhodium and Platina. They know the Norilsk boys as their pocket.

Plan : we, as little fish, just have to quess where POG will find his bottom-zone. And continiue to accumulate modestly. It looks as if 261$ is not holding...250$ and...

Buena Fe (02/08/01; 12:49:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 47800)
under pressure?
Comex p-au is spiking lower............PPT seems like it has been under pressure these last few days to keep nasduck aflot/US banana up........maybe they (BBanks) need profits/margins on short gold positions to offset the wieght of the deflating baloon!

Pandagold (02/08/01; 12:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 47799)
Australia & Gold
www.fallstreet.com (Glamorous side to gold)

- BUSINESS

Glamorous side to gold polished up

By Jane Counsel

The Australian gold industry is about to undergo a marketing revolution with moves afoot by industry bodies the Australian Gold Council and the World Gold Council to "rebrand" gold.

With the precious metal no longer seen as a stable investment and facing stiff competition in the fashion stakes the World Gold Council has appointed high profile London advertising agency Bartle Bogle Hegarty to spearhead an international promotional campaign. The Australian Gold Council is also pursuing several initiatives involving the fashion and jewellery industries in an attempt to lift gold's profile.

The growing economic stability of world markets continues to erode the use of gold as an investment. Governments and central banks across the world have been reducing their gold holdings, sending the price into a tailspin.

Since 1989, central bank gold holdings have fallen every year and so has the spot price. In the past five years alone, the price has fallen by more than $US140 an ounce to $US266 an ounce.

The World Gold Council wants to inject some stability into the price by promoting gold's appeal and encouraging demand in the jewellery market. It hopes ad agency BBH will achieve the same success it has had with Levi jeans and Audi car brands.

"We are confident that in BBH we have found an agency that can create highly original and exciting advertising for gold," World Gold Council chief Ms Haruko Fukuda said.

"Although consumption is already increasing around the world this campaign will help stimulate even greater degrees of consumer demand for gold."

Australia is the world's third biggest producer of gold and produces more than 300 tonnes a year, the majority of which is turned into bullion and traded on the international spot market.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/08/01; 12:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 47798)
Lafisrap (msg#47790) RE: repos...
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html
"...what is being "repo"ed? ... You post these Fed repo updates often. ... Your updates would be much more useful if you were to periodically include an explanation of these special terms listed above."

Good question, and thank you for stepping forward. This is truly a fine example were the Hall of Fame might serve its intended purpose...providing easy-to-find archived material for which we may expect to make periodic revisitations.

Click the link above. It should lead you to a post that I see (in hindsight) is somewhat lacking, but should nonetheless deliver the basic understanding being sought. Go to this post listed near the top of the Index:

"TownCrier (11/05/99) -- An Easy Lesson on the Fed's Repo Operations and Banking System Reserves"

Randy (@ The Tower) (2/8/2001; 12:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 47797)
Consider this... (it will come in useful in later discussion)
Wealth cannot be borrowed into existence.

(If you think it can, then you do not understand the meaning of wealth.)

Free trade involves the uncoerced exchange of quantities of items (goods, services, currency) seen as having equivalent instantaneous values in the eyes of the marketplace.

Now, dwell on this: If four quarters are exchanged for ten dimes, we see an example (albeit frivolous?) of free trade. (Perhaps someone needed exact change for a vending machine?) Where in this trade do we see any manner of "profit"? We don't. In truth, the trade occurred because at least one side was seeking an advantage while the other side, if not also somehow advantaged, at the very least felt his final position to be equivalent as before the trade. Otherwise, that side would not participate, or willingly contributed to "charity".

In a world where "like trades for like", there are no profits, but rather, only ENHANCEMENTS to personal/business advantage through this economical redistribution of goods, services, and monies.

Again, wealth cannot be borrowed into existence. It grows only through time and effort as applied to the goods of earthly life. A candlestick maker, trading his candles for an equivalent value (as seen by the marketplace) in bread from the baker, does so not for unmeasurable "profit", but for the "advantage" (i.e., "well-being") revealed by his personal need for bread beyond his wealth in candles. And correspondingly, likewise for the baker. This is representative of the equal and advantageous trade that occurs at all scales and at all steps, such as for the raw materials needed in the making of candles and bread.

The use of currency merely lubricates the smooth functioning of this system of commerce, but does not change the underlying truth of equivalent trade occurring for the sake of enhancing personal advantage (or "wellness"). The use of currency does, however, allow a degree of quantification (measurement) that misguides many casual thinkers into notions of trading for "profit", when in truth, by definition all trade occurs at instantaneously equivalent value (like for like) and is motivated by the comparative advantage gained from the redistribution of the items being traded.

A thinking person recognizes that currency serves only to lubricate the system of trade by eliminating the inefficient constraints of barter. As it can be borrowed easily into existence, this person knows currency is no manner of wealth. The distinction is subtle but important. This person strives with lifelong effort to accumulate *wealth* for its meaningful role in securing the wellness of being in an ever-changing and uncertain world. But where this "lubricant" is concerned in the course of his life's wealth-building efforts, our thinking person's great understanding results in a desire to accumulate and retain a quantity of currency that does not significantly exceed the needs to facilitate his immediate purchases.

Currency is a contrivance of modern man, and can be borrowed into existence. Wealth cannot.
Wealth must be "built" through effort over time.
Currency is not the goal of production. Wealth is.
Wealth is, loosely, what we call the necessities of life....food, clothing, shelter, energy.
People redistribute wealth through fair equivalent trade to attain advantage (enhance wellness). If you want to measure and call this advantage "profit", then so be it. But recognize this: your "profit" is not in excess or external to the wealth traded for the comparative advantage....unless you are silly enough to keep it in currency form, in which case it is not wealth at all!

This next text was offered a few days ago, and it might now mean more following this background of thought.
-------------
When looking to buy and sell gold versus dollars, moreso than being guided by the motive to make a score in dollar profits, some bright thinkers living in the "here and now" with a mind for "tomorrow" buy gold at every turn for the security advantage not found in the paper dollars representing the equal market price.

As a market participant, when we sell our dollars for gold instead, we trade for this advantage, today. What comes tomorrow, if our thoughts have served us well, is icing on the cake. Lots of icing!

got advantage?
-----------------

Call Centennial. They will help you take advantage of the uniquely advantageous prices currently available through the market's misplaced and temporary confidence in paper gold...(a judgement error as grievous as confusing simple currency with real wealth.)

JMB (2/8/2001; 11:41:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 47796)
tedw
Hi Ted, I hope it means were all going to get rich:)
and I also hope I've answered your question in my response to Sierra Madre.

JMB (2/8/2001; 11:33:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 47795)
Sierra Madre
http://207.96.251.155/scripts/news/search.pl?headline=comex+delivery
Goldman Sachs has been receiving delivery notices and not retendering them, or throwing them back to the next guy, so to speak. They have been the premier force in the Gold cabal.

Bill Murphy, the Chairman of GATA, has wondered out loud who the first rat would be to jump from the Gold cabal ship. Bill actually predicted that it would be GS. Some of us are excited to see this "possibly" taking place. These guys are the most devious sons-of-bitches in the world but it appears that they see something that indicates that Gold is going higher...soon.

Four contracts are a small number to GS, but scroll to 31 Jan and look at that number. Then check 1 Feb. That's a pretty big number. They have stopped Gold each day. Their percentage of total stops is impressive. I really don't hate the filthy pukes, I just like to call them dirty names. I smile when I do it. But now that they seem to be on our side...they're our buddies.

I've enjoyed reading your posts for some time. You're one of the Giants on this Forum, in my opinion. I hope the above helps a little bit. There are others here who understand this topic much better than me. HELP!

beesting (2/8/2001; 11:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 47794)
More on Japan in retrospect and Gold.
The View From the Eyes of the Insignifacant Workers.
As we've discussed already Japan built herself up financially after WWII using labor only, as almost all raw products were imported. Useful products were assembled and exported and foriegn money(mostly American) poured into the country at such a fast pace(20 years) that the Yen appriciated by about 400%. This caused the problem of exports from Japan becoming so expensive to the rest of the world,that no one could afford to buy as much as before.

So, lets examine the causes and what might have been a possible remedy.

The companies of Japan rewarded the workers in every possible way, including buying houses for them and investing for their retirement years.
Much of the investments the way I understand it were U.S. Government debt obligations(T-bills & Bonds). This influx of interest bearing notes got so large($4 Trillion U.S.??) that the annual interest alone on 4 trillion at 6% is $240 billion(if my math is right). So, with this extra interest income coming into the country they could afford to sell products below production costs.This worked for awhile, but other countries(the U.S.)complained their workers couldn't fairly compete on prices for finished products.(automobiles)

You see some of the American workers wages were being consficated thru taxation to pay the debt on the U.S. Govt. debt the Japanese held. Taxation was and is killing the American worker in two ways in this case!

I think Japan,with no natural resources'sees what happened to the U.S. workers and doesn't want the Japanese workers falling into the same debt trap. Thats why almost no interest loans are offered by the Japanese Government, as interest on Gvt. loans is paid off thru taxation of the people.(workers)
****************************
Now, lets present a different scenario. What if the Japanese retirement plans had been investing in physical Gold and the Japanese Government had started minting some Gold to be used by the people and in trade. Yes, over a period of time if there was a trade imbalance the Yen would still go up in value, but they wouldn't have had the benifit of compound interest from their trading partners, and they would have used Gold to purchase raw materials. The people could store or spend their Golden wealth any way they wanted to.The other benifit as I see it is, if Gold was being used on the street, inflation wouldn't have been so great for the Japanese consumer, and they also might get a lot more foriegn tourists to visit.

The bottom line is; The dollar numbers of retirement money for the Japanese workers would not be as great, but the proven value of physical Gold has historically out performed currency as a store of wealth which as we've all seen can be horribly manipulated. It looks like 4 trillion U.S. dollars in earned wealth depends on the stability of the U.S. dollar and the ability of the U.S. Gvt. to collect taxes from the American workers.
Who won WWII???

For Trail Guide, hyperinflation in Japanese; Kwabun fukurasu koto (Superabundance Inflation) (From my Japanese American dictionary.) But, you better ask Sir Ironheads wife if this is correct.
Thank for Reading....beesting.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 11:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 47793)
Gondalph the White

Sorry about that but I did not think anyone would be interested in the full article. It was just the humour in the headlines and the thought it provoked that caught my eye.

I picked it up from Kitco News and they picked it up from some Canadian paper.
The surprising thing is, it is not showing now in their list, and I tried to pull it up using their keywords - but no luck. This is so unusual as I always found stuff there I needed to refer to again.

SORRY!

Old Yeller (2/8/2001; 10:34:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 47792)
Revert to the mean

I've been noticing this scenario seems to be appearing more.High tech companies are reaching a plateau in growth terms;the thrill is gone,but the high multiples are not.If the NASDAQ retreats to the mean,it will probably trade between 800 and 1000.

That makes for pretty scary thoughts if this were to occur.Could the dollar derivative structure possibly survive this? The NASDAQ has traded at these or at much higher levels for over two years now.In terms of market cap, this number is immense.There must be huge debt commitments tied to this.

Any thoughts?

tedw (2/8/2001; 10:19:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 47791)
delivery notices
WWW.USA.GOLD
JMB

Explain to us about Goldman Sach stopping delivery notices
and what it means.

Lafisrap (2/8/2001; 10:18:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 47790)
Randy msg#: 47789)

Randy posted:
***
Following yesterday's five-and-a-half billion dollar add via 15 day repos, the Fed's Account Manager again today took action in open market operations. Twice. And at the time, the fed funds market was trading nicely near the 5.5% target. (It doesn't take Davey Crockett to see what is afoot by these tracks in the winter snow.) First was a $2.015 billion add via 28-day repurchase agreements, followed shortly thereafter by an additional $1.75 billion operation with overnight repos.
***

Thanks Randy. Perhaps you will explain the meaning of these terms:

* 15 day repo
* 28-day repurchase agreement
* overnight repo

For example, what is being "repo"ed? The "repurchase agreements," who is agreeing to what, and what is being repurchased? Was something previously purchased, and now being "repurchased"; thus, a "repurchase?" Who originally purchased what from whom? And when something is "repo"ed overnight, is it just simply returned the next morning, like an automobile reposessed at midnight and returned to the delinquent owner the next day?

You post these Fed repo updates often. And you always seem to imply that they are very significant; however, you have forgotten to show how that is so. Your updates would be much more useful if you were to periodically include an explanation of these special terms listed above.

Thanks,

Lafisrap

Randy (@ The Tower) (2/8/2001; 9:59:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 47789)
Wading through ankle-deep currency...Fed adds more to banking reserves
Following yesterday's five-and-a-half billion dollar add via 15 day repos, the Fed's Account Manager again today took action in open market operations. Twice. And at the time, the fed funds market was trading nicely near the 5.5% target. (It doesn't take Davey Crockett to see what is afoot by these tracks in the winter snow.)

First was a $2.015 billion add via 28-day repurchase agreements, followed shortly thereafter by an additional $1.75 billion operation with overnight repos.

Later today we should have the Fed's report on the latest measurements of the aggregate money supply.
"How high's the currency, Momma?"
"Well, it's past your ankles and risin'!"

Gandalf the White (2/8/2001; 9:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 47788)
LINKS please Pandagold !
PANDA ---THIS IT THE LINK area for your use !
Pandagold (2/8/2001; 4:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47768)
on a lighter note
Vacuum cleaner salesman pitched mining company stocks to elderly investors
VANCOUVER, Feb. 7 /CNW/ - Two men who allegedly convinced 11 elderly investors to put more than $148,000 into a mining company have been ordered to
appear before a British Columbia Securities Commission panel
********It is not that the Hobbits do not believe EVERYTHING that you say and do, Panda, it is just that they would like to see more on this items that you toss about ! PLEASE PLEASE link you items !
<;-)

Sierra Madre (2/8/2001; 9:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 47787)
JMB...COULD YOU CLARIFY?
I have noticed that you post data which is probably interesting; however, you write in a kind of code - lingo familiar to traders, not to the rest of us.

What do you mean by "our friends stopped 4 of them" (delivery notices for February)?

What is particularly interesting about the actions of "our friends"? WHO are you referring to, anyway? Is four a lot, or a little? What is "stopping" a delivery notice?

I would appreciate clarification, and if you would spell everything out as for a 12-year-old, in future posts, it would be very helpful. Excuse my ignorance! I do want to learn.

Sierra.

JMB (2/8/2001; 9:35:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 47786)
Goldman Sachs
Only 20 delivery notices today at Comex for the Feb. Gold contract. Our fun loving friends stopped 4 of them.

TREE in THE FOREST: "...they can get a pick and shovel and start digging." That's a good one. However, they could call MK....he MIGHT deal with them in a pinch.

sstins (2/8/2001; 9:24:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 47785)
America's gold is safe in KY ???
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/p/nm/20010131/ts/imdf07662.html
We take all kinds of paper in KY.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 8:17:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47784)
Taking its toll

I have noticed a number of silly little errors made by me today (and other days). In my last post - going down with his ship. I use the word 'both' then go on to mention three items. I won't highlight the others, some of which I corrected.

I can only surmise that this constant battle in the daily 'gold arena' in which I have staked so much time, energy, and money, is beginning to take its toll.

I wouldn't mind if we could get a little volatility, in fact, that is what I counted on, not a rocket surge upwards.

But watching grass grow is for cows. Moo-oo

Tree in the Forest (2/8/2001; 7:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 47783)
JMB, R Powell, Journeyman, Ross L and anyone else following this
Please excuse me. My last post was late at night and I was thinking very fuzzily. Yes the 4897 stoppers are for February. Just 150 contracts still open in the near month. The problem is that only some 90,000 oz of gold are eligible, not enough to cover their contracts. They will have to "convince" someone else to sell them gold, probably from their registered pile by the end of Feb. You are quite correct Rich. The question is indeed "at what price?". We shall see. They better hope that the vast majority of April contracts get rolled over. Either that or they can get a pick and shovel and start digging! For gold that is. You are also right about delivery. Delivery is you roll up a truck to one of there warehouses and take delivery. If you don't, they charge you storage fees like any warehouse would. Sometimes, if the price is still rising, it pays for a trader to actually store product that way. FOA has said that contracts would be honored but whose contracts? "Oils" contracts for sure. Wouldn't want to tick them off. But the sheeples? Ha! Besides, "oils" contracts maybe OTC, not a standard contract. Later.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 7:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 47782)
Going down with his ship?

In spite of how one may personally feel about what Greenspan is doing, I believe the man is no idiot. He is well versed in both Academic theory of economics, real world economics, and accountancy.

There is also a wealth of voiced feeling, in high places, that the man is doing fine job (though, for whom, we are not quite sure).

Of course, everyone could have said that about Captain Smith, just before it struck the Iceberg. And probably until some time after it had hit the iceberg, because no one could accept this fine, huge ship could really go down.

Well, Captain Smith was an old hand, and was overdue for retirement. He probably didn't shorten his life by very much by going down with the ship. Maybe he went down with a smile on his face as he was facing an honourable death that befits a man of naval tradition.

Now, how old is Greenspan? And why does he have that smile on his face?

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (2/8/2001; 7:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 47781)
Black Blade,........Disease of Grasshopperism
You post early and it makes it difficult to eat breakfast while I'm laughing so hard! The "talking heads bleat" is a nice touch too!

It is frustrating to see what has happened to Kalifornia. Frustrating in so many areas , though I will limit this to the environmental movement. They all read Silent Spring. If they read Cadillac Desert, it conveniently doesn't apply to them! The shear stupidity is breathtaking. Southern Kalifornia is a desert, yet that is where most choose to live. People need water, so do their swimming pools, so do crops grown in the desert, etc. Yet providing the necessary infrastructure to provide the water (or power, or roads etc.) meets with fanatical opposition that has found itself to date firmly entrenched politically, academically and increasingly culturally.

Yet the doors are wide open for more to move into their desert, and the thought of pulling back on the famous lifestyle (for the poor this may just be limited to enjoying the "mild" climate) is never considered. A true plague of locusts! Of greater consequence to the rest of the nation where there is enough water to support the population is the insane environmental regs promulgated in Kalifornia and through swinging their political and celebrity broadswords finds its way into law elsewhere.

Earthquakes, mudslides, wild brush fires, flash floods, temperature inversion induced smog, urban sprawl, runaway taxation, the ever increasing need for welfare programs, and now rolling blackouts!

The problem rests with the people. Too many people. Too many selfish people. Too many naive and overly impressionable people. When they finally wake up to the economic realities of the world, they sell their house for a overly inflated price and move elsewhere. Unfortunately many bring their bad habits with them, and the same environmental/political ideology is thus transmitted like a goofy, expensive, socialist virus.

If only there was a Howard Jarvis in Kalifornia today! (Imagine a Howard Jarvis promoting the gold standard!) Perhaps there is and the media suppresses their voice. A voice of common sense coupled with addressing the root cause of their problem, overpopulation and a lifestyle the environment and economy cannot support, needs to come to the fore.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 6:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 47780)
SORRY: Now why are they rushing this through, I wonder?

SORRY, THIS IS HOW IT SHOULD READ. HAVING PROBLEMS WITH EYESIGHT, AND PC

Bankruptcy Bill Put on Fast Track
Republicans Say Law Would Curb Abuses
By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 8, 2001; Page E01

Sweeping bankruptcy legislation that would make it harder for consumers to wipe out debts in court is on a fast track in Congress, where Republican leaders hope to quickly push through the same measure vetoed at the end of the Clinton presidency.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 6:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 47779)
Now why are they rushing this through, I wonder?
Bankruptcy Bill Put on Fast Track
Republicans Say Law Would Curb Abuses
_____Business Live Online_____

� Noon ET: Live discussion of gun locks with Post reporter Caroline Mayer, Bill Brassard Jr. of Project Home Safe and Laurence Keane of the National Shooting Sports Foundation. Submit questions now.

_____Updated News_____

� Business
� Washtech.com

_____Web Special_____

� Keep track of the profits with the Earnings Watch Special Report.

E-Mail This Article

Printer-Friendly Version

Subscribe to The Post

By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 8, 2001; Page E01

Sweeping bankruptcy legislation that would make it harder for consumers to wipe out debts in court is on a fast track in Congress, where Republican leaders hope to quickly push through the same measure vetoed at the end of the Clinton presidency.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 6:47:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 47778)
Now why are they rushing this through, I wonder?
Bankruptcy Bill Put on Fast Track
Republicans Say Law Would Curb Abuses
_____Business Live Online_____

� Noon ET: Live discussion of gun locks with Post reporter Caroline Mayer, Bill Brassard Jr. of Project Home Safe and Laurence Keane of the National Shooting Sports Foundation. Submit questions now.

_____Updated News_____

� Business
� Washtech.com

_____Web Special_____

� Keep track of the profits with the Earnings Watch Special Report.

E-Mail This Article

Printer-Friendly Version

Subscribe to The Post

By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 8, 2001; Page E01

Sweeping bankruptcy legislation that would make it harder for consumers to wipe out debts in court is on a fast track in Congress, where Republican leaders hope to quickly push through the same measure vetoed at the end of the Clinton presidency.

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 6:39:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47777)
Barnacle Bill

Yes, you would (mining companies buying back and the rest of the sordid scenario), if this 'financial world' performed as a 'free market,' all transparent, 'above board' system run by men of integrity with the welfare of the common man (oo-oo-ps and woman) at the forefront of their. endeavours.

But even where small amounts of money are concerned, even within families, we get devious goings on. Are we really that naive we can expect it when such high stakes on a grand plain are concerned?

I suppose we want to grow up, yet still cling to our childhood beliefs - Santa and toothfairies etc. We are just big kids at heart and don't like accept the realities of this bag bad world.

Now lets see, shall I go put on my "Bambi" video, or play on my rocking horse.

Trail Guide (2/8/2001; 6:23:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 47776)
Comment
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
I will have time later today for several comments. One, in particular, is to point out MK's observations on his Live News Feed Page (see link).

Also note this item from the same feed:

Japan's Economy Contracts
Revised Quarterly Figures Confirm Recovery Has Stalled

-----
TOKYO, Feb. 8 (Thursday) -- The Japanese government said today that the nation's economy contracted by an annualized rate of 2.4 percent during the July-September quarter of last year, confirming fears that recovery has stalled ---------------------- Today's forecast may also force
Bush administration officials to rethink their promise to forswear badgering Japanese policymakers about how they manage their economy.----------

TrailGuide

DaveC (2/8/2001; 6:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 47775)
Topaz, SLATT
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010206/ca_homesta.html
Topaz: Au by the molecule? I guess I missed that one. Info overload.

SLATT, you are welcome.

I scan the Yahoo headlines a couple of times a day. I notice a lot of "negatice slanting" headlines. But you can dig and find things like this:

Tuesday Homestake announced a record quarter.
Fourth quarter 2000 summary: - Net income of $5.2 million, compared to net income of $4.0 million for the corresponding 1999 period. Net income per share remained unchanged at $0.02. - Cash flow from operations of $32.6 million, compared to $17.2 million in the fourth quarter of 1999. - Total attributable gold production at an all-time Company record of 589,100 ounces, 48,200 ounces more than in the fourth quarter of 1999. - Average cash cost of $168 per ounce, $20 per ounce lower than in the same quarter of 1999. - Attributable proven and probable gold reserves at December 31, 2000 of 20.8 million ounces, 11% higher than a year earlier.

Then ther's this from Newmont yesterday:
Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM - news), North America's biggest gold mining company, said on Wednesday its fourth-quarter earnings fell as a stagnant gold price and rising energy costs hit the company hard.

Newmont, which has operations in the United States, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Indonesia, reported earnings of $19.7 million, or 12 cents a share, on revenues of $476.8 million. In the year-earlier quarter it reported a profit of $46.8 million, or 28 cents a share, on revenues of $430.5 million.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010207/cx.html

I'll have to look into this Au "by the molecule" idea.
Next it will be "air by the breath."
BTUN tax - Breathing Thru Ur Nose Tax.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (2/8/2001; 6:03:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 47774)
DaveC,.....precious metals usage
Thanks for the info!

barnacle bill (2/8/2001; 5:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 47773)
Pandagold Msg#47766
Belgium and All
I havn't looked into it at any great depth, but I've been reading that the historic users; Saudis, India, China have been buying it. These people know a bargain when they see one.
What has me stumped is that a lot of the mining companies are still short. If you were CEO of a mining company, wouldn't you have bought back your shorts by now?

Maybe the PTB have told them that there is more downside coming?

Topaz (2/8/2001; 5:23:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 47772)
DaveC
Dave, you forgot (Normandys) DeCrespigny's grand plan to resurrect the Au industry - sell it by the molecule for medical applications....Yeh right!

Topaz (2/8/2001; 5:17:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 47771)
further....
If below is anywhere near reality, doesn't your heart go out to Bill, George etc....
.....Poor Buggers!!

Topaz (2/8/2001; 5:04:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 47770)
General---Belgian
Theres an issue here I consider VERY relevant. Security/Storage/Secrecy of Large Gold holdings as opposed to Small.
I believe we (as small purchasers/holders of metal) are in an envious position vis-a-vis large holders.
We can acquire $10Mil Au (I wish!) and hide it in the proverbial shoebox (or 2) however large amounts stick out like a sore thumb. As such they gravitate to "facilities" for same.
As these facilities are (in)directly related to the PTB, not only are you up for storage fees, you also have to live with the fact that "maybe" your stash has been misappropriated/paperised in the grand Fiat adventure.
Also one can confidently assume most large hoards are privately accounted for and are common knowledge in the Circle.
OK, a Gates, Soros etc cannot enter this domain (Safra) and are reduced to coat-tailing with (paper) Silver - while we can merrily accumulate in dribs and drabs to our hearts content, YES?

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 4:57:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 47769)
FOR 'HE' READ 'THEY'
slight adjustment

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 4:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47768)
on a lighter note

Vacuum cleaner salesman pitched mining company stocks to elderly investors

VANCOUVER, Feb. 7 /CNW/ - Two men who allegedly convinced 11 elderly investors to put more than $148,000 into a mining company have been ordered to
appear before a British Columbia Securities Commission panel

I SUPPOSE YOU COULD SAY - HE 'SUCKERED' THEM INTO IT. I GUESS HE QUIT ONLY WHEN HE HAD THEM ALL IN THE BAG?

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 4:46:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 47767)
Probably the most important question

I left off probably the most important question - AND WHY ON EARTH ARE THEY BUYING IT - EVEN AT THESE PRICES?

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 4:35:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 47766)
Belgium and All

This is the question we all want to know - who is buying all this 'crappy yellow stuff' - this barbaric relic, that there is so much of, and nobody seems to want or have a good word for?

Even WGC, or any source only tells us that such and such country imported so much. But the real buyers, we know, do it through various channels (countries), that hide the real purchasers.

Why is the media so concerted in its efforts to let everyone know who sold a load - but never who bought it?

To me, these are more or less rhetorical questions, but I would like see some 'authority' confirm them, or, at least,
the media ask them.

LeSin (2/8/2001; 4:33:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47765)
Test
test

DaveC (2/8/2001; 4:26:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 47764)
Use of Metals?
Platinum disk drives.
Zinc batteries.
Gold catalytic converters.

No wonder Jim Rogers says this will be the decade of raw materials.

DaveC (2/8/2001; 4:22:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 47763)
Zinc-oxygen batteries get a charge out of air
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/l24526755_2.html
Zinc-oxygen batteries get a charge out of air
By Niala Boodhoo

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - A battery that creates energy out of thin air may give traditional nickel and lithium-ion powered devices a run for their money.

Zinc-air batteries, in which zinc reacts with oxygen to produce energy, are cheaper than traditional batteries.

They also produce from between two and four times as much energy. Producers say they are safer because they lack certain chemicals that could be explosive.

``Even with a completely dead battery, you can talk and charge at the same time,'' said George Hopmeier, U.K. managing director for Israel-based Electric Fuel Corp (NasdaqNM:EFCX - news), a producer of zinc-air batteries.

Destined principally for use in the fast-growing mobile phone sector, Electric Fuel produces single-use, zinc-air batteries for mobile phones. One of its standard zinc-air batteries has a talk time of between 10 and 17 hours, compared with three to five hours using a lithium-ion battery.

The battery lasts for about 300 hours on stand-by compared with 60 to 85 hours with lithium.

Topaz (2/8/2001; 4:18:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 47762)
IronHead
...and a Hi back to you IronHead,
Aussie enviro-sentiment has been placated to a large degree in recent years. (exception Neuclear issues)
Since the "invention" of the EIS, (an in-house funded "enviromental impact statement") Ozzies in general have little interest in these issues, unless of course they are directly enviro-affected. (I'm allright Jack revisited)
The G-O at the moment is large scale open-pit operations in the 5-15g/Ton range and most of these are "remote" from prying eyes. Laws are in place to ensure "self-regulation" is adhered to.
There is full-on support at a Gov't level for Resource development of all types and no doubt, "backs are turned" regularly.
It's a pity these "start-up's" make a beeline for the Bullion Banks to forward 600 odd % of their annual production to crank up operations though.

DaveC (2/8/2001; 4:16:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 47761)
Platinum's future secure in PC industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/l1922100_2.html
Platinum's future secure in PC industry
By Sara Marani

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The ever expanding drive for greater memory within ever smaller spaces in computers is raising demand for platinum as a vital component in hard disks despite the highest prices for the precious metal in 13 years.

``Last year 90 percent of all hard disks produced had platinum. In 1998 that was just 50 percent,'' said Jeremy Coombes, marketing managing director at precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: JMAT.L).

Computer manufacturers such as U.S. giant IBM (NYSE:IBM - news) are constantly striving for smaller and faster disks and a platinum and cobalt alloy is a key element for improving data storage capacity.

IBM expects data density (bits/unit area) to double every year -- a pace the company sees continuing for several more years, at least until densities of 100 billion gigabits per square inch are reached. That is about five times today's top density in products.

Black Blade (2/8/2001; 2:35:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 47760)
Palladium supply on brink of severe disruption
http://www.mips1.net/MGPlat.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D653852569EC006906C5?OpenDocument

These guys just discovered that the Russkies don't have any PGM stockpiles left. Where have these guys been?

Black Blade (2/8/2001; 2:13:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 47759)
RE: SHIFTY
http://www.acitravel.co.za/main.asp?conf_id=2
So now PGMs are considered "pollutants?" It makes one consider the gold catalyst program as being cleaner as gold is essentially non-reactive. Then they would take ice core samples a few years from now and either say gold is a "pollutant", or "Hey guys!, let's mine the ice!" ;-)

SHIFTY (2/8/2001; 1:58:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 47758)
Catalytic convertors contribute to pollution-magazine
http://news.altavista.com/scripts/editorial.dll?ei=2381951&ern=y
02/07/01

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Instead of helping to clean up the environment, catalytic converters used on car exhausts are adding to pollution, a science magazine said on Wednesday.
Researchers have found metal from converters in remote areas of Greenland proving, they say, that it is a global problem.

``It's not just close to the cities and highways,'' Carlo Barbante, a chemist at the University of Venice, Italy, told New Scientist magazine.

Catalytic converters convert pollutant gases into less noxious products. The platinum, palladium and rhodium in the coverters fitted to cars catalyse reactions that convert hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides.

Barbante and his team measured concentrations of the metals in ice and snow cores from Greenland dating from 1969 to 1988 and from 1991-1995.

After comparing the cores to samples dating back 7,500 years, they found that concentrations of the metals had been increasing since 1976.

``Rhodium levels are already 120 times higher than in the 7,500-year-old ice. Palladium and platinum levels have increased 80 and 40-fold respectively,'' according to the magazine.

Barbante said the ratios they uncovered were similar to car exhausts found in another study, which suggests the metals originated from catalytic converters.

End

$hifty

Belgian (2/8/2001; 0:57:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47757)
Indaba 2001 - Williams K. ( Anglogold )
Note particularly Williams' dismissal of GATA:

"Forget for the moment about the notion of a
conspiracy against gold, and worldwide plots
between central bankers here, there, and
everywhere. We face a physical overhang of
metal, and if we don't keep the physical markets
healthy, we might all face a less happy long-term
future in gold."

Dear,dear, Mister Williams : " physical overhang "...well, well, well. Open your book...give us the names of the good, the bad and the ugly "overhangers" !! We have to forget the conspiracy...so, you didn't say there was "no" conspiracy ?
If you fear some unpleasant GATA_INDUCED, things to come,
why don't you just explain us what is going on with that mysterious "OVERHANG". Is this so-o-o-o-ohhhh difficult ?

Please, if your masters should decide to enlighten us...please, don't hide behind your ,classic, WGC statistics.
Wouldn't it be much simplier to know "WHO" and "WHY" goldsellers, want to get rid of their long builded reserves ? What is the purpose of giving them a reasonable price for something they never intend to buy back ? Wouldn't it be better to let POG implode and give us the opportunity to accumulate the precious waste ! Amputate with a sharpened axe and in one go ! Or do the producers want to cover first with massive hedging ? Distribute the gold to the masses at give away prices and let's start it all over again.

We know, you know much more than we do. Tell us !

Black Blade (2/8/2001; 0:31:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 47756)
Oil Climbs As Weather Disrupts Supply

February 6, 2001
LONDON (Reuters) via NewsEdge Corporation -

Oil prices firmed on Tuesday as freezing weather disrupted output in the North Sea and Venezuela said it preferred to see prices in the upper half of OPEC's target range. Prices eased earlier after the oil minister of OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia said on Monday there was no need for further output cuts since current crude prices were reasonable. Brent crude was up 39 cents at $28.84 but remains below last week's 10-week peak of $29.20. Prices have rallied over the past few weeks from a low of $22.90 seen just before Christmas. Freezing weather in the North Sea has forced the shut-in of close to 600,000 barrels per day of Norwegian oil production and is hemming in another 470,000 bpd of UK output, operators said. Temperatures, which fell far below freezing over the weekend, were up close to zero Celsius on Tuesday, raising hopes that output would resume later in the day for Norway's platforms, which had shut in 400,000 bpd worth on Monday. ``The market is still nervous about supply,'' said Glen Murray of brokers Azur in France. Stormy weather in eastern United States was also supportive despite forecasts for warmer temperatures later this week. Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Alvaro Silva said on Tuesday he prefers a price between $25 and $28 a barrel for OPEC's crude oil reference basket as anything below that causes ''problems'' for the 11-member cartel. ``The official band is still between $22 and 28 but we have noticed that it can be between $25 and $28 without causing disturbances (to the world economy). Below $25 it causes problems for the countries (of OPEC),'' he told a news briefing. ``Consumers say they are happy with $25 a barrel and $28 is perfectly able to be assimilated by the world economy,'' he said. Dealers said buying of inter-month spreads helped lift afternoon prices but are awaiting fuel stocks figures from the U. S. due later on Tuesday for a fresh sign of market direction. Last week the figures showed a big build in stocks and sparked fears that an economic slowdown in the world's biggest consumer may be beginning to take its toll on fuel demand.

OPEC'S GAMBLE WITH RECESSION

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut supplies by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from February 1 to avoid a glut during the second quarter when winter demand wanes. Non-OPEC Norway and Mexico have worked closely with OPEC to stabilize world oil prices since 1998, when prices fell to about $10 a barrel. Norway has said it would not restrain its output while Mexico's Martens said on Monday there is ``an excellent balance between supply and demand.'' Dealers said they saw little fundamental reason for last week's rally and some believe a gloomy economic outlook in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer, may undermine demand later this year and weaken OPEC's grip on the markets. OPEC officials have vowed to defend oil prices with further production cuts should prices fall below the group's target range of $22 to $28 a barrel. The cartel will meet to review the market on March 16. ``OPEC is playing a dangerous game, keeping prices this high in a recessionary environment. At some point it will backfire,'' said Nigel Saperia of independent oil trader Glencore in London. By putting a ``floor'' under the oil market, OPEC is ``giving everybody in the exploration world a free ride'' and it may also ''encourage cheating'' among cartel members, he said. Given the high crude price, oil companies may devote more of their budgets to explore for oil in areas that otherwise may not have made economic sense. Erratic crude exports from Iraq have also helped support prices. The flow of Iraqi crude exports remains clouded by uncertainty with many traders doubtful Baghdad will meet a self-imposed target of two million bpd for February. Exports ran as high as 2.3 million bpd last year but fell in January to below one million bpd following Iraq's demand that clients pay an oil surcharge fee. Diplomats at the United Nations, which approves and monitors Iraqi oil sales under sanctions imposed after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, said on Friday that Iraq had asked the U.N. to lower prices for some crude shipments this month. The expected approval of revisions to Iraqi crude oil prices for February shipments was delayed 24 hours to Tuesday, U.N. officials said. There was a brief lull in Iraqi exports on Tuesday with both export ports idle but an expected resumption of activity in the coming days, industry sources said.

Black Blade: It will not take much to knock down inventories and weather is just one variable. Rumor is that Saddam is up to his old tricks again. Maybe he is trying to "fake-out" OPEC wil on-again and off-again oil production. This week Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan President (dictator?) has stated that there will be no return to lower oil prices. Looks like we are headed for "Interesting Times." Better stock up on basic needs and PM portfolio protection. Storm clouds are forming over the horizon.

Black Blade (2/8/2001; 0:22:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 47755)
California's Power Crisis: A Warning to All
http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=10435

Michael T. Klare, Pacific News Service
February 6, 2001
California's continuing power crisis has been widely blamed on a failed deregulation process -- along with a regional water shortage (reducing the flow to hydroelectric generators) and an unusually high number of plants undergoing repairs. These factors do indeed bear considerable responsibility for the crisis. But there is another, deeper cause at work -- an insatiable demand for energy that no combination of technology and regulation can meet.

Spurred by a strong economy and the spectacular expansion of the Internet, electricity consumption in the United States has been growing at a heady pace -- up nearly one-fourth between 1990 and 2000, according to the Department of Energy (DoE). The added amount -- some 660 billion kilowatt hours -- is equivalent to the combined current consumption of Canada and Mexico. California, with its large cities, suburbs, and computer industries, has accounted for a significant share of this increase. Nationwide demand for electricity will likely continue to grow in the years ahead. Between now and 2020, the DoE predicts, U.S. consumption will grow by another 1,000 billion kilowatt hours -- the total current consumption of China. Of course, other industrialized and industrializing nations will also be expanding their electricity consumption over the next two decades -- in some cases, at rates much greater than those in the United States.

What is more, the growing demand for electricity is only one facet of the worldwide thirst for energy. All over the globe, people are buying new cars and appliances, driving greater distances, and using computers for an ever-wider range of functions. As a result, global consumption of all types of energy -- oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and nuclear power -- will grow by 50 percent over the next twenty years. This will require an unprecedented increase in production of primary energy supplies. Oil production, for example, will have to rise from 77 to 110 million barrels per day, while natural gas production will have to almost double.

Even with massive investments in new oil wells, gas fields, coal mines, dams, nuclear reactors, refineries, pipelines, power plants, and electrical grids, it is not clear that we can develop the necessary infrastructure. As California demonstrates, a wide range of political, economic, and environmental roadblocks stand in the way of rapid infrastructure growth. A new regulatory environment could eliminate some of these roadblocks, but not all of them. In short, attaining a 50-percent increase in worldwide energy production over the next 20 years is probably beyond human capacity.

President Bush seeks to overcome this dilemma by digging for oil in national wilderness areas and by increasing domestic coal production. No doubt we will also hear more about the benefits of nuclear power generation, despite the fact that no solution has yet been found to the problem of storing highly radioactive wastes. But all such measures will not satisfy the nation's ever-growing demand. In this sense, the blackouts and shortages now being experienced in California provide a foretaste of the years to come. Ultimately, reforming the regulatory system and building new power plants will not solve the energy crisis. Sooner or later we will be forced to adopt a different strategy altogether. Only by slowing the growth in demand can we hope to find a lasting solution to the problem. President Bush should be speaking about energy conservation and the development of super-efficient technologies, tax savings and other economic incentives to households and companies that significantly reduce energy use -- and higher rates for those that fail to do so. Applied judiciously, measures of this sort can lower demand to sustainable levels.
For now, California's leaders must concentrate on meeting the state's basic requirements. Once the immediate crisis has been overcome, however, the priority should be switched to demand reduction and the development of energy-saving technologies. By suffering now, California can spare us all from an even greater crisis in the future if it elects to lead the way in forging a new, sustainable energy strategy

Black Blade: The disease of Grasshopperism has spread to the point of no return. The current energy crisis will only continue to spread and take a toll on corporate earnings. The lack of sufficient energy will also cap growth and eventually add to recessionary pressures. It is getting ugly, yet the talking heads can only bleat "Buy the Dips!" and "Don't Look and Maybe it Will Go Away!" An analyst named Michelle Girard (ING Barings?) said that people should not talk about recession and that even talking about the possibility could be a "self-fulfilling prophecy." Well miss Girard, should we just bury our heads in the sand? We are already in a recession and it is going to get much more severe! There is no alternative what-so-ever, it is a "done-deal!" Energy is the trigger and the trigger has been pulled. The smoke is just becoming apparent to some observant individuals.

SteveH (02/08/01; 00:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47754)
Check this one out...deflation caused by gold price...
http://www.polyconomics.com/
See the Mexico article at bottom too.

Black Blade (02/08/01; 00:02:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 47753)
RE: IronHead 02/07/01; 11:56:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 47686

Regarding mine closures. In the US, mines usually aren't simply closed, but put on "care and maintenance", where they are still considered active mines that are temporarily shut down. The mine in the state of Washington that is jointly owned by Battle Mountain Gold (now Newmont) and Crown Resources (?) now faces an interesting challenge since they passed all environmental and regulatory hurdles, they now are forced into another review because of lawsuits brought by some environmentalists organization. In the end, the mine will go into production or the state of Washington (read taxpayers) will pay the costs incurred by the mine as it will constitute "illegal taking" under the law. The only possible losers here are the jobs lost and the payout from the Washington state taxpayer. Similar action is underway in the state of Montana where an initiative was passed to ban the use of cyanide heap leaching. This was an effort to stop the Seven-up Pete Venture/McDonald Project near Lincoln, Montana. The same lawsuits are under way and the mining company (Canyon Resources) will very likely win and the only losers again will be the lost jobs and the taxpayer. Environmentalism is in "fashion" now. However, it is expensive being "fashionable."

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