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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/7/2004
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (1/7/04; 23:54:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114848)
BOJ intervention
@ BB:

Damn, $14B a day. That's almost "real money", in the words of the late Everett Dirksen!!!

I remember when the word "intervention" was used to begin treatment of substance abuse addicts. In this case, it seems to be part of the disease.

Kinda like all the methadone addicts created by "treating" heroin addicts with more drugs.

Black Blade (1/7/04; 23:46:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114847)
BOJ Currency Intervention

The BOJ has spent over $28 billion buying foreign currency (debt) on Monday and Tuesday and it is expected that number will be close to $41 billion by end of trade today (Wednesday) according to a "market source" as reported by Reuters. This is pure desperation allright. The smell of fear is extremely potent and only a fool would not be able to discern it. Ugly times in Japan lately. Japanese currency traders must be raking it in by letting the MOF and BOJ do all the heavy lifting at the expense of the average Japanese citizen who is getting royally screwed. Comes wit the territory I guess.

- Black Blade

Goldilox (1/7/04; 23:24:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 114846)
correction
@ PA - oops, I just reread JS. He actually said "One day down, three or four more trading days to go - maximum -before the price of gold makes its next move to $430.30 and beyond. "

My apologies. I really should double check before I quote!!


 


Black Blade (1/7/04; 23:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114845)
Market Wrap Up - Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

I was curious to see where our leaders have spent most of the borrowed money, so I did a quick Google search and found a website called federalbudget.com that gives a breakdown of the whole thing. BY FAR the biggest contributors to our nation's debt have been interest payments on existing debt, welfare programs, and military spending. Now I ask you this, did you personally benefit from any of the three biggest spending areas? You didn't benefit from the government's interest payments. In fact, you are paying higher tax rates because of the interest payments. If you are reading this site, you are probably not receiving welfare benefits. If that is true, then you are the one that is subsidizing the welfare recipients. Finally, benefits from excessive military spending are open for debate. I have to emphasize excessive, because we are now spending more on our military than all of the rest of the world combined!


Black Blade: The debt keeps soaring and more will be required to finance the growing debt. But we can just inflate our way out leaving the Japanese and Chinese holding the bag. ;-)

Goldilox (1/7/04; 23:14:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114844)
Miners
This is not a thorough analysis, but in my portfolio, the producers got hit much harder than the juniors (except CDE, who floated $130m in converts today). Does this suggest to anyone else that the sideways motion is temporary?

Gold held a pretty solid foundation at $419, so it seems that all today's selling did was verify the new bottom of the range.

PA - Methinks you've been reading Sinclair, who says "two, three days tops".

Black Blade (1/7/04; 23:10:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114843)
Comatose - Yellowstone

Comatose – Just got in so sorry for getting back to you so late. Yellowstone is essentially an active volcano (or caldera if you wish). There have been reports of doming in Yellowstone Lake and occasionally new hot pools, mud pots and geysers appear from time to time and the heat and sulfur gases kill nearby vegetation. I am not all that up to date on what new activity has occurred recently though. The fishing for cutthroat, brookies, and rainbows is as good as ever though. You can take as many lake trout you want only you must keep them as they are introduced and are a threat to native fish. I prefer fishing the streams and rivers myself (fly fishing of course). I live close to the park though so I really should keep up to date on any new activity of course being a geologist. ;-)

- Black Blade

BTW, it is said that the BOJ is still heavy in selling Yen and buying foreign currency (USD and Euro) tonight as they have been all week. We are talking $Billions here. Some said nearly $5 billion last night but did not say how much in after hours after the Tokyo close. They are scared out of their wits and getting quite desperate. The Yen printing presses are smoking! And yes, the MOF has given the BOJ the word that they can spend over Y140 Trillion to "manage" the currency. As I have been saying - the Yen is nothing but a joke of a currency, but then they have no raw materials - they buy raw materials, assemble trinkets, and sell them to foreign markets. No wonder many well heeled Japanese have been and still are buying gold and platinum. Even the Japanese banks are insolvent. Ouch!



Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 23:05:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 114842)
Gandalf....I am not really much of a technical analyst
Sorry to say my old wizard, charts seem to me like hands...a good fortune teller can always seem to read something into them.

I also read the link below on the Director of the Pension Insurance who quit.....I think the "family reason" is that his wife convinced him it was political suicide to remain and be the fall guy.

I have a certain feeling that this issue of "capital adequacy" in pension funds is serving somewhat like the canary in the mine for the much larger systemic problem of capital adequacy in all large corporations, banks, insurance companies, etc.

I come back to my thought of a few nights ago that given a world which has about $30 Trillion worth of dollar denominated debt, and given that since that debt has been held by these large global players as a primary capital "asset", the 30% drop in the dollar must equate to a capital deflation on the order of $10 Trillion. Is it not perverse that the world has devoted so much of their liquid savings to dollar investments, such that they are now forced to make their own home currencies worthless, just to try and preserve the value of their savings...and the solvency of their own banks, insurance companies, and pension funds? In light of that, why is it so strange to think that the BOJ would not create a mere $1.2 Trillion of their own funny money to try and stem that tide.

Something in this reminds me of that little story where a wealthy businessman asks an investment advisor how he might insure that he would have as much money when he died, as he did today....and the advisor pulls a revolver out of his drawer, hands it to the man, and says the only way would be to shoot himself right now.

poor old solomon

Goldilox (1/7/04; 22:59:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 114841)
GWB Immigrant Labor reform
@ Toolie:

AMEN!

GWB made it sound like these were all domestic and farms jobs. We're gonna need a lot more gardners and housekeepers when we are battling just to keep the house!

Send the tech jobs to India, the manufacturing jobs to China so we can all work for the CABAL cutting their grass!

Who was it that said " We're becoming a nation that takes in each other's laundry?" - only if we can wash it cheaper than the "temps" from overseas.


"In a land of milk and honey, I wandered thirsty in the rain."
- the Seldom Scene

Waverider (1/7/04; 22:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 114840)
IMF Sees Risk of Disorderly Dollar Drop
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040107/economy_usa_imf_dollar_3.html
"Large and growing U.S. budget and current account deficits raise the risk of an abrupt drop in the value of the dollar, which could hit U.S. and global economic growth, the IMF said on Wednesday. Although the dollar's adjustment could occur gradually over an extended period, the possible global risk of a disorderly exchange rate adjustment, especially to financial markets, cannot be ignored," the International Monetary Fund warned in a new report on Washington's fiscal stance. "An abrupt weakening of investor sentiment vis-a-vis the dollar could possibly lead to adverse consequences both domestically and abroad," particularly since U.S. debts to the rest of the world are at record highs, the fund said."

Waverider: Have you noticed there have been more headlines of late re: the risk of an abrupt $$ devaluation and consequences thereof. I used to think in terms of "if" the guano hits the fan, now I firmly believe it's only a question of when.

Gandalf the White (1/7/04; 22:45:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114839)
Sir Goldilox and Sir Toolie
Goldilox -- Spot and Spike are resting and awaiting the new shipment of Roo meat, scheduled to arrive soon !
Toolie -- Oh, to be able to write as VIVIDLY as you !!
<;-)

Toolie (1/7/04; 22:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 114838)
(No Subject)
Free Trade destroys managed economies. Gold is the money of free trade.

Goldilox (1/7/04; 22:36:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114837)
Reuters Gold Report
http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4089029&newsType=usGoldRpt&menuType=markets
snippit:

NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - COMEX gold sagged further from 15-year highs on Wednesday as the dollar steadied and gold investors took profits, but the bullish mood that greeted 2004 remained firmly in place.

Silver and platinum also backtracked, but did not stray too far from Tuesday's multi-year peaks.

February gold ended off 90 cents at $422.30 an ounce, extending Tuesday's retreat from its first foray above $430 since 1988. The contract bottomed at $420.50 Wednesday after a morning rally ran out of steam at $425.40.

"At the end of the day the trend remains intact. The market consensus -- the technicals, the fundamentals -- are still pointing to higher commodity prices -- in U.S. dollar terms, I have to specify -- across the board," said Graham Leighton, a vice president at Societe Generale. "That tells you this is largely a dollar move."

Estimated volume was a moderate 48,000 contracts, down from the offifial 66,471 lots that changed hands in Tuesday's roller-coaster ride.

Gold surged on Monday and early Tuesday, extending last year's 20-percent rally. Investor diversification out of the falling dollar and worries about instability in Iraq kept gold in vogue as a safe haven.

"We started off the year on a very positive note when the market wasn't back to full strength or capacity," Leighton said. "We're at more realistic levels now that we had a bit of a correction, and the market is back to full participation."

Goldilox:

I hope "full participation" means Spot and Spike are on the same page again soon!

Toolie (1/7/04; 22:31:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 114836)
So what do you make of bush's decision to allow Mexican workers to take any job that an American "doesn't want"?
Before Spencer Abraham was appointed Sec. Of Lethargy….er Energy, He was a Senator from my state. He introduced a bill that allowed the auto manufactures to import a great amount of labor from abroad under an H-1B, L-1 or temporary/tech, work visas. There were provisions in the bill to "protect" domestic labor by demanding proof from the prospective employer that the job could not be filled from the local talent pool. Suddenly, jobs that had been done by highly experienced but non-degreed talent required a bachelor's degree. Coincidentally, the wages paid for the replacement labor was 30% less than the cost of domestic labor. The employers simply altered the requirements to hold that job, then had access to cheap labor.

Bush now wishes to expand this program to ALL employment in the U.S.

Strip away all the posturing. It is a program designed to rebalance the cost of labor to resources within the U.S. economy. In a U.S. that doesn't have sole authority to print the world reserve currency, the price of all non-domestic resources rises. The price of domestic labor must fall. This latest program is an effort in preparation for a controlled crash. What else can it be?

Like Dad used to explain: It's not the fall that hurts you, it's the sudden stop.

What color is your parachute?


Goldilox (1/7/04; 22:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114835)
PruBear Market Summary - Rob Peebles
http://www.prudentbear.com/marketsummary.asp
snippit:

The dollar held its own today, perhaps due to Treasury Secretary John Snow's straight-faced testimonial that he supports a strong dollar policy. Gold fell 90 cents to $422.30, helping to push the Gold Bug index down 3.3%. Crude oil weakened by 8 cents to close at $33.62 and gas prices fell about 3 cents to $6.878.

The American Bankers Association calculates that credit card delinquencies hit a world record in Q3. Delinquencies reached 4.09%, up from 4.04% in Q2. Not coincidently, consumer debt (which doesn't include mortgage debt) hit a world record in October. Even excluding mortgage debt, the Fed figures that consumer debt comes to almost $19,000 per household.

Disco fever
The only problem with debt is that there's not enough of it to satisfy investors. Thanks to the latest rally in junk bonds, high yield yields fell below 7% yesterday. According to news reports, that's the lowest level since the 1970s.

Goldilox:

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a Krugerrand today!!!

Max Rabbitz (1/7/04; 22:28:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 114834)
21maybry
May I ask how much you paid to hear the Professor expound on "President" Mugabe? Tuition is going up here in Virginia and elsewhere. States can no longer afford to support the now highly paid Professors and Administrators of government mandates and regulations. Polliticians can't say no to the elite.....so students will have to pay and pay and pay....until they can't borrow anymore. Where will there be employment to pay back these huge college loans? Not everyone can be a real estate agent, tort lawyer, broker, or financial advisor. The young have a huge burden.





Gandalf the White (1/7/04; 22:25:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114833)
Questions for Lady Waverider ---
Could that the same reason as the little brownish furry rodents leaving a ship ?
===
"If we do not take action soon, these consequences will repeat themselves, or worse, U.S. taxpayers may find themselves called upon to bail out the pension insurance system," Kandarian said.
===
Who else "BUT the U.S. Taxpayers" pays ALL the Government bills ? (Just how much do the Businesses pay after all those "Bookeeping" adjustments ?) AND where do THEY get that monies to start !
<;-)

Gandalf the White (1/7/04; 22:17:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114832)
MORE --- Sir Solomon Weaver !! <;-)
USING your chart -- please note that the intersection of the TOP trend line and the BOTTOM trend line INTERSECT in about TWO MONTHS at a level of just less than 110 !
Interesting ?
Tick Tock
(I can wait to see, because I am still gathering YELLOW !)
<;-)

Waverider (1/7/04; 22:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114831)
U.S. Pension Agency Chief Resigning
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040107/financial_pensions_6.html
"The director of the federal agency that insures U.S. pensions announced on Wednesday that he was stepping down, while repeating his warnings that U.S. taxpayers might be called upon to bail out the agency. Steven Kandarian said he was leaving the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. for family reasons. His resignation letter to Labor Secretary Elaine Chao also said the underfunded pension system needed quick action to fix it. "We have learned these past two years that current pension funding rules are inadequate to ensure sound funding in (pension) plans at the greatest risk of termination," Kandarian said in the letter to Chao. Workers and retirees had lost promised benefits, while the PBGC had suffered multibillion dollar losses, he said. "If we do not take action soon, these consequences will repeat themselves, or worse, U.S. taxpayers may find themselves called upon to bail out the pension insurance system," Kandarian said."

Gandalf the White (1/7/04; 21:57:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114830)
Thanks Lady Waverider !
You beat me to it ! <;-)
One can spend time and look at all the chart from ONE month to three, and six months, and then a year, to get a better picture of what HAS HAPPENED !
LOTS of flexibility with these charts !


21mabry (1/7/04; 21:53:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114829)
Zimbabwe
The article in the financial times today showed the disaster that is Zimbabwe.Some of the few people well off the article stated were gold holders and gold smugglers.I remember a prof. at school last year spoke of his support for Mugabe in class.Zimbabwe use to export food now it cant feed itself.What a tragedy for the people of that country.21

Gandalf the White (1/7/04; 21:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114828)
Thanks Sir Solomon Weaver !!! (someone really does read my messages!) <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daoayiay[da][p][vc60][iLa12,26,9]&pref=G
Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 18:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114818)
Treasury volume and BOJ (Gandalf)
Hey Gandalf....
< snip >
Nonetheless, my kind Gandalf, I cannot make heads or tails of the very technical multiparameter chart which jumps up when I use the link you have just provided.
Might I be kind enough to ask you, (or perhaps a knowledgable reader) to translate those bars and lines into a simple number, and compare that perhaps to certain averages and historical record highs.
Poor old Solomon
===
PLEASE take a look at the SAME chart, but I have changed the chart parameters to minimize the overkill that is possible on "StockCharts" !
I am now showing "OHLC sticks" rather than "Candlesticks", and the VOLUME as a separate chart segment !!!
(NOTE the HUGE increase in volume today ! and the "PRICE RANGE" was VERY TIGHT -- (JUST like someone said "COME ON" -- "We will take all you have at this price !"
(NOW, who could that have been ?)
I have also KEPT the "MACD", as that is my indicator of "Trend Change" (in a non-chop situation).
I hope that this helps ! LET ME KNOW !!!
<;-)

Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 21:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114827)
Max Rabbitz - Arigato Gozaimashita
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]dallyyay[dc][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Sore ne...gomen nasai.

Thanks for doctoring Gandalf's pictorial......by reducing your version to a daily period over the last six months, I can now see how there have been only about 6 specific days in the last six months which have enjoyed as much volume as today....(see my link)

and all of them do appear to be strong buy side volume, that move the price back up......(i.e. weaken the yen).

Just think how powerful you must feel if you are the lone executive on the island of the rising sun who gets to make that call over a cup of coffee.

Poor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 21:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114826)
(No Subject)
.

Max Rabbitz (01/07/04; 20:41:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 114825)
Sundeck
I think valuing dollars and yen in tonnes is appropriate at this point. Will digital dollars be hedonically adjusted to account for decreasing memory storage costs? Right now I'm looking for a better TV so I can play my DVD of "Pirates of the Caribbean." Top choice right now is an RCA 27-inch with component connections for DVD and highly ranked video quality for only $229 (don't need digital, plasma, or HD). Not an endorsement but thank you Asians. Then there's a surround stereo system for home theater. I think I can escape reality for under an ounce of shiny.

I would also like to encourage all central banks to dump all gold still left in storage as quickly as possible because I'm getting tired of waiting for the next knock down…..not the piddly little things I've seen lately.


Waverider (01/07/04; 20:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 114824)
Solomon Weaver
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]wallyyay[df][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
This should be easier - I've changed the chart to a line and charted the maximum time it allows which is the past 3 years. I too find the candlestick charts very confusing especially as Stockcharts uses a color coding scheme which does not conform to the standard text-book color codes and definitions. Cheers!
Waverider

Subcomandante Tomas (1/7/04; 19:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114823)
@Usul, Gold Standard
Another visualization is that the cube would fit on a little league baseball diamond.

Sundeck (1/7/04; 19:40:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114822)
Max Rabbitz and Melda Laure Japanese Purchases of US dollars
Max...are you aware that $1.3Trillion US 1-dollar notes weighs about 1 Million Tonnes?

No kidding...each note weighs about a gram, so 1000 notes weighs about a kilogram, so there are about a million notes to the tonne and a trillion equals a million times a million.

So...in round figures $1.3trillion dollars weighs a about million tonnes, give or take a bit...if delivered in 1-dollar greenbacks.

Of course, computer digits are weightless, which makes the logistics a whole lot easier.

;-)

Sundeck

Max Rabbitz (1/7/04; 19:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114821)
melda laure
"I hear the Japanese have threatened to buy 1.3T USD this year (and print up to 140T yen to do it) That's T as in Trillion."

Max.....are you sure it's not Tons?




steady (1/7/04; 19:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114820)
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the gold silver ratio is at 67.75

Melting Pot (1/7/04; 18:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 114819)
Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 18:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114818)
Isn't the K-winter great......Nippons crapping their pants when daddy war bucks goes bankrupt! It's like the members of the liter losing the teat for the first time....

Solomon Weaver (1/7/04; 18:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114818)
Treasury volume and BOJ (Gandalf)
Hey Gandalf....

I have taken a bit of a personal interest in the political decision which seems to to have been struck in a backroom in Japan (sounds of koto playing, warm sake, and a very dignified white faced geisha bowing gently as she presents a set of "hashi", fills a glass, or offers the next course with a light singsong voice) related to the BOJ agreeing to finance Uncle Sam for 2004 (come hell or high water) shi kata ga nai.

Interestingly, I even had the chance last January 2003, while in Tokyo, to have been in the dinner company of a very nice old Japanese gentleman who was serving as our business host and translator (very excellent English skills), who claimed to have personally already lost several $100 million betting the wrong way on Treasuries and dollar strength. When I told him that my then prediction for end of 2003 was 100 yen to a USD, his eyes rolled back into his sparcely be-haired head, and he informed me that would be terrible...to him and many other well heeled Japanese elite. I am certain that all that prevented my prediction from coming true was the 2003 BOJ actions.

Nonetheless, my kind Gandalf, I cannot make heads or tails of the very technical multiparameter chart which jumps up when I use the link you have just provided.

Might I be kind enough to ask you, (or perhaps a knowledgable reader) to translate those bars and lines into a simple number, and compare that perhaps to certain averages and historical record highs.

Poor old Solomon

steady (1/7/04; 18:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114817)
pssssst hey hey you pssst hey hey
speaking of spywaer, whos got the skinny on whose been talkig to who about what and at what price.... and well how much game manship has been going on saying well i got this and i got that bit of info and we have synthasized it all together and your out look is bleak, looks like deep storage time for you and your compadres.
while on the other side they are going you aint got jack cause are skin is very very thick and hardend by many cases of this same type pluss we got the judges , but did .... where did those computers exactly get recycled at, ya know the ones it replace in late 2002 right when how was taking us to court the first time, rember that cleansing opertion did we really get rid of em or hmmmmmm,

but its been way to quiet over at that spectrum of the cool gold scene, invitation please>
wonder what type of supposedly price depressing earth shattering news we will get from that case shortly.
should be interesting to see what gets said and what happens.

steady (1/7/04; 17:34:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 114816)
i tried to tell ya
re that message about hte govt in chat rooms , i tried to tell ya, they have been practicing directing conversations and usng whatever physcological tricks they can on individuals within those rooms, especially the yahoo stock watch room.
go in there type gold
about 15 times and nothng else and watch the naysayers come out fo the wood work.
its like they have a counter and after so many hits of the word gold kabbom the reinforcemnts are brought in to bad mouth it.

how do i know , ive done it more than once, i use to get pissed at the nat=ysayers till i realized they where plants , then id just go mess with em and type gold gold gold until they came rushing in to tptb rescue . sounds far fetcched dont it, but it i kid u not it does happen in fact it happend so much stopped going there untill about 10 minmago when oi saw that artile and yep the trick still brings em out with the fallicies and delusional thinking abot how the allmighty dollar is as good as ever and gold will tank and that , nevermind there lies are all the smae, fullof nonsense, doublre talk and pure bull>>>>>

melda laure (1/7/04; 16:46:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114815)
Burn baby burn
"Goldilox:

Another CB joins the team of dollar buyers trying to hold their currency up."


Perhaps I might clarify: they are trying to hold their currency DOWN: hold head under water until the investors drown. Print Print, hit the print button!

I hear the Japanese have threatened to buy 1.3T USD this year (and print up to 140T yen to do it) That's T as in Trillion.

There was, I belive, some poster here that said something about "all paper will burn"... Well it's burning, deliberately; rather than get backwashed while they watch atlantis sink, they've decided to sink along with us in a desperate attempt to keep exports and current account surpluses up.

Gandalf the White (1/7/04; 15:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114814)
WELL !!! --- the Hobbits were WRONG !!! LOOK at the VOLUME on this chart !!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USB,uu[l,a]daclyyay[da][pb200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
The ESF and Japanese Gov'n threw EVERYTHING (including the Kitchen Sink) at the LONG BOND Today !!
OF Course, the price did not increase much, BUT there was a lot of PAPER trading hands !
THREE DAYS in a row ?
NAH ! can't happen !
<;-)
===
BTW, the power JUST came on a few minutes ago, was out all last night. There was a "TREEMENDOUS" fight in this area between the Ents and Orcs last night ! The four inches of snow from the day before, did not help anything. BUT, the freezing rain during the night did it ! There were body parts of Ents EVERYWHERE ! My CONCRETE patio had five large diameter branches about fifteen feet in length strewen about. Poor Ents !! BUT, the Orcs were beaten back and they took their casualties with them !
(I think they consider them FOOD !)
<;-)


Melting Pot (1/7/04; 15:29:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 114813)
Bank Activities Reform Commission Launches Investigation Into RagingBull.com
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2003/12/prweb95564.htm
The International Bank Activities Reform Commission is revealing to the general public in the United States that Chat rooms, Bulletin Boards and Message Boards run by Lycos, Microsoft, and Yahoo such as Raging Bull and others are being used by government agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Bank, the FBI, the CIA, Secret Service and the Department of Homeland Security to spy on Americans without their knowledge.

Government agents have used the boards for counter intelligence operations in an attempt to discredit information being posted by whistle blowers who have been ferreting out government crimes and wrongdoing with the full knowledge of President Bush and the intelligence community.

In many cases, the entire contents of a person's computer can be siphoned out and transferred to a massive database in Virginia for further analysis and additional counter intelligence measures.

End Snippet:

Ya know maybe this spying stuff really isn't so bad after all.... If government agents start spying on anti-government chat rooms and forums, some of them might figure out what's going on inside the government!




Cometose (1/7/04; 15:20:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114812)
Black Blade
Sir ......
I read another recap of an article posted earlier this fall that you responded to ....

I wanted to check back in with you about the fishing at Yellowstone Lake and on the Yellowstone River......

Also I hear things are relatively hot in the Norris Geiser Basin on a 28 by 7 mile stretch that has buldged 5 inches since 96 and understand that the BASIN is now CLOSED to TOURISTS
Trees are dying?
Can you verify ?
Do you fish the aforementioned areas and if so have you noticed anything peculiar...

THanks in advance for your response and
I apologize to the forum for the off topic post.....however this is in our back yard so to speak and perhaps pertinent to follow up on .....



USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/7/04; 15:13:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 114811)
Page Update!
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The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.

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Gold drops and US dollar rebounds on a fair Treasury sale and "surprise" - Treasury Secretary John Snow says he supports a "strong dollar policy". That and more currency intervention and possible bullion bank short sales worked in combination to psuh gold 70 cents lower.

Jon H. Warner

Great Albino Bat (1/7/04; 14:33:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114810)
A look at the daily gold chart

On another forum, the daily gold chart shows a series of ups and downs - the buyers are buying, and the sellers are obstinately selling, trying to bring the price down, now that the euphoria of a rapid rise in the price of gold, has given way to a pause for breath and contemplation of the quick rise in gold in silver prices.

The sellers - we have learnt about them through the years - sense the moment as propitious for tumbling the price down to say, $404?

Now, if the sellers are really hot to pursue gold investors to give them a sound thrashing that will teach them not to invest in the barbarous relic, why then, they might throw all they have into the fray and obtain - say, $396? Well, not impossible but I'd say, doubtful that will happen.

Again, as another poster here has commented, and passed on to us his uncle George's wisdom, it's not the eddies that count, it's the tides.

The tide is with us and will be with us for a long, long time.

Use all pull-backs to purchase your gold from CPM!

The GAB





Great Albino Bat (1/7/04; 14:23:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114809)
Belgian - Robert Mundell

Robert Mundell is a hired hack that works for the US financial establishment. So much for the rationality of any expression of his.

The GAB

Dollar Bill (1/7/04; 13:47:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114808)
*>*
"...the (Japanese) ministry has arranged a repo deal with the Bank of Japan in which it can get funds by selling foreign bonds to the central bank, buying the paper back at a later date." I wonder if the US Treasury can sell its wares to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which in turn repos them to the BOJ, and then places the money into its custodial account at the Fed for market intervention in dollar assets. That truly would be a "money printing" machine."


Goldilox (1/7/04; 12:20:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114807)
Brazil Central Bank to Revive Dollar Purchases to Weaken Real
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ap_WAOuB2NFo&refer=latin_america
snippit:

"Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank said it will start holding daily auctions to buy dollars for the first time in five years in an effort to stem a rally in its currency that threatens to slow an export-led economic recovery.

The bank's auctions will replace daily purchases the Treasury had been making -- without regular notice to investors - - of about $115 million a day through state-run Banco do Brasil SA in the fourth quarter of 2003, bank President Henrique Meirelles said yesterday. He said the bank will buy a similar amount. The bank hasn't made regular dollar purchases since it allowed the real to float against the dollar in 1999."

Goldilox:

Another CB joins the team of dollar buyers trying to hold their currency up.

Gee . . . Brazil defaults on their foreign debt every 5-10 years. How much can they afford to throw away during a dollar free fall?

Socrates964 (1/7/04; 12:17:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114806)
Mr Gresham
SP

Belgian (1/7/04; 12:09:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 114805)
Robert Mundell - Liberation
R.M....with the emergence of the euro and its ( the euro)instability against the dollar... !!!
I would give him a second Nobelprice for this very, VERY biased analysis. An UN-stable euro and a stable dollar !!! Jesus... !
I can hardly believe that R.M. could/would have said this. Or was he forced to come up with such an upside down statement as another introduction to renewed efforts for a "global currency" to be negociated on new balance of (monetary) power terms !?

What is wrong with the "old" International Monetary (dollar)System, that it should be replaced by a new one...if the dollar is defined as "stable" against a newly architected, modern euro ?

Through CNBC, the euro (and Euroland) is constantly ridiculed in more and less subtle ways, as the dollar exchange rate continues to weaken (and recover) less orderly. Volatility seems to increase to visibly.

Very powerfull oil-money is already (stealthly) behind the euro (concept). Yes the dollar can join the new global currency...but not so on exclusively dollar-terms anymore.
The dollar lost its most powerfull friend...GOLD !!!

Paper Avalanche (1/7/04; 11:35:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114804)
Price Prediction for Friday......
If my memory of recent price action is any guide, whenever we have a huge spike in price on a Monday, follwed by strong suppression on Tuesday, and then not as strong suppression on Wednesday that does not break through some new floor accomplished on Monday (i.e. $420 in this most recent case), we almost always see a spike into the close on Friday at or above the high on Monday (in this case above $430). I am betting that we close above $430 on Friday.

I cannot substantiate this gut feeling and I have no data to support my position - call it a hunch based on observation of daily price action while at work. I may be wrong. When it comes to price predictions, I am 99% of the time.

For what it's worth.

PA

Goldilox (1/7/04; 11:02:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114803)
Credit Crunch Coming?
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/news/economy/credit/index.htm
snippit:

"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The record percentage of consumers behind on their credit-card payments in the third quarter could be the ugly result of a weakening housing market -- and an ominous sign of greater credit pain to come, some economists said Wednesday.

Others, however, suggested an improving labor market would ease the sting of a softer housing market and help stop the bleeding in consumer balance sheets.

The American Bankers Association (ABA) reported Tuesday that 4.09 percent of all credit-card accounts were delinquent in the third quarter, the highest rate on record, and said the weak job market was probably to blame.

But Morgan Stanley senior economist Bill Sullivan suggested there may be another culprit -- the end of the mortgage refinancing boom.

"It is no coincidence that households found it more difficult to maintain current payment schedules just as the volume of refinancing activity began to dry up as the second half of the calendar year got underway," Sullivan wrote in a research note Wednesday."

Goldilox:

As the refi boom ramps down, difficulties in credit maintenance ramp up.

ax (1/7/04; 10:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114802)
TREAS SEC SNOW AGAIN BACKS STRONG US DOLLAR

This came out today:

Reuters
US Treasury's Snow repeats backs strong US dollar
Wednesday January 7, 11:58 am ET


WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated on Wednesday that the United States backs a strong dollar and said its value should be set by market forces.
"Our policy is as it's always been," Snow told reporters after addressing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "As I have stated many, many, many times we support a strong dollar."

He added: "A strong dollar is in the U.S. interest and of course we believe that the value of the currency should be set in open, competitive markets."






Nomad (1/7/04; 10:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114801)
Our future, writ large.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/news/economy/credit/index.htm?cnn=yes

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040106-103400-7397r.htm

http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/122115|top|01-06-2004::21:32|reuters.html

http://www.fourthturning.com

The next 20 years will consist of a long slow slide leading up to a Crisis (as outlined in the Fourth Turning, the ONLY authors prescient enough to predict both the nature and the timing of 911 in advance).

More low paid immigrants here, jobs flowing overseas by the contatinerful, increased credit problems, and an increasingly divided nation.

A House divided cannot stand against itself.

When I lived in China for several years it was most interesting to me that while the money was a different color and the opportunities fewer, the stadard of living was almost that of the Weest, at least in the urban areas.

Our future is a gradully lowered standard of living (while most other countries rise to meet us in the middle) and an increase in the divide between the haves and the have-nots.

The debts and hard assets you acquire now will determine whether or not you come out as one of the few winners or one of the great multitude of LOSERS in the great Crisis to come. Survival of the smartest and the bravest for sure.

Nomad




Denarius (1/7/04; 10:24:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114800)
Universal Currency Standard
http://euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=19&aid=13988
-
Several recent posts discussed the question of a universal standard against which currencies could be valued. The postings seemed to point to more basic 'what is wealth' & 'what is real' questions. This can be related to Robert Mundell's proposal for an international monetary system.
-
Too much on one plate? Maybe not. I answered these questions for myself a few years back but have never had a beer review of my conclusions. I would be interested in opinions on them from this forum.
-
Is there any interest in persuing this topic?
-
If not, I'll be over at the mylifeisbeer forum.
-

Cavan Man (1/7/04; 10:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114799)
Mr Gresham
Dr. Mundell could only be referring to gold. If he wasn't, he should have been.

Mr Gresham (1/7/04; 09:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114798)
Mundell
http://euobserver.com/index.phtml?sid=19&aid=13988
Sinclair has some interesting commentary today, including a response to Mundell's idea at the link above...

Goldilox (1/7/04; 09:48:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114797)
Spot and Spike
@ Gandalf

Spike seems playful today, but Spot is a bit lethargic.

Mr Gresham (1/7/04; 09:35:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114796)
P.A.'s link/glimpse
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=84&art_id=vn20040107020521346C950874&set_id=1
Sure your name won't change to "Paper Bonfire" someday?

"Because of the shortage of Zimbabwe dollars, many customers have resorted to using bank-certified cheques for commercial transactions. It was also easier to use such cheques because of the huge wads of Zimbabwe dollars required for simple purchases.

"With official inflation at 619 percent, Zimbabwe dollars have become worthless and piles of them are needed to buy a simple breakfast of bread, milk and eggs."

Inflation makes a _shortage_ of dollars? Sure 'nuf -- read the Weimar link on this site. (The overall BULK value of the paper currency loses value against real objects, as the quantity printed loses out to the vanishing multiplier of unit value.) You could substitute some other dollar names down the road aways.

Hey, isn't Zimbabwe the country that got it's "start" from ol' Cecil Rhodes? Wonder if he was around back in England when all those European central banks were getting their fiat legs under them? I know he's been gone from Africa awhile, but those post-colonial mood swings go on, don't they?

Americans may have been half-smart in latching onto real estate, with their last strands of credit pull. But it's at least a viable entry in the political lottery to come.

Interesting thing here in USA will be how we handle the BULK of debt which accompanies a devaluing bulk of currency. Will the unlevered holders of debt (after netting out their own debts?) end up owning everything -- upside-down real estate, surviving corporations?

Or will debtors force (and bankers see the wisdom of accepting) something more in the middle, where those who can hang on to their cash flow, get to hang on to their de-pricing McMansions, effectively on a lifetime rental basis? Such a deal!

MK (1/7/04; 09:27:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114795)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Updated.

Breaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.



Goldilox (1/7/04; 09:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 114794)
$422 battle
Quite a battle going on for $422. If this range narrows any more, they'll have to report the thousands digit, as well.

Mr Gresham (1/7/04; 08:33:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114793)
Socrates964
I don't remember if I've asked you this before -- are you in Rio or SP?

Cytek (1/7/04; 08:27:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114792)
@ A Nation of One, Sundeck, Socrates964
Thanks for your comments on my question,very informative. You can't get this kind of advice anywhere other than USAGOLD.

Looks like the markets await another SNOW job at 11 am on the Dollar. The dollar is up but almost everything is down.

mikal (1/7/04; 08:07:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 114791)
Bonds fall ahead of five-year auction
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm
Bonds drop ahead of 5-year auction
Treasury yields rise before $16 billion auction and release of Friday's Dec. unemployment report. January 7, 2004
Excerpt:
"U.S. Treasury prices fell Wednesday, pushing yields higher, as investors awaited note auctions and anticipated an improving picture of the employment market when figures are released later in the week. The two-year note shed 1/32 to 100-1/32 to 1.85 percent and the five-year note dropped 1/8 of a point to 100-15/32 for a yield of 3.25 percent.
The benchmark 10-year note fell 1/4 of a point to 99-17/32 to yield 4.30 percent, up from 4.27 percent late Tuesday, and the 30-year bond shed 3/8 of a point to 103-18/32 with a yield of 5.12 percent, up from 5.10 percent late Tuesday. Treasury sells $16 billion of new five-year notes at 1 p.m. ET. Traders have been optimistic that the auction would go well thanks largely to expectations of demand from Asian central banks, which have been buying dollars recently to slow gains in their own currencies."


Dollar Bill (1/7/04; 07:07:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114790)
*>*
Lets see, we have an inflationary policy, ok, lets cut overtime with the labor dept ok, and then after a big stock year, lets cut pensions. Lets make sure retirees cant float a boat also !
"more than a third of U.S. companies with a pension plan say they'll freeze benefits.
If Congress and regulators do not provide relief, 21% of employers say they will freeze benefits at current levels, according to a survey of more than 200 large companies by consulting firm Hewitt Associates. And 17% say they will halt benefits to new employees.

Companies are considering pension cutbacks despite big market gains last year, which boosted pension plan assets at companies in the S&P 500 by $112 billion, the amount that pensions in the S&P 500 are underfunded grew to an estimated $259 billion last year, from $212 billion a year earlier, Standard & Poor's says."


Dollar Bill (1/7/04; 06:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114789)
*>*
"It may be, in fact, the case that China's monetary authorities are fully aware of the country's underlying fragility and that the mooted notion of re-pegging the renminbi against a basket of currencies would provide scope, not for gradual revaluation, but devaluation. The virtue of a direct currency peg is its underlying transparency, something which is clearly lost in the event that a link is established against a basket of currencies, the composition of which is as yet indeterminate and easily manipulated. It makes little sense to move to such a basket if the real objective is the expedient of gradual revaluation of the renminbi in a highly transparent way that would curry more favour with Washington.

But if the attempt is to achieve covert devaluation in response to weakening domestic conditions, then such a move makes much more political and economic sense. If this is indeed the road China is choosing to go down, it will certainly reduce its ability to continue purchasing US assets at the rate at which it has been doing over the past few years, which has perilous implications for the dollar exchange rate. Indeed, one would envisage similarly smaller inducements to purchase US assets on the part of all of Asia, since most would almost certainly respond to a Chinese devaluation (covert or overt) by a comparable competitive currency devaluation –
a great backdrop for GOLD perhaps, but certainly not in the interests of global economic stability. "


Usul (1/7/04; 06:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114788)
Gold Standard
You're welcome. An amazing visualisation, is it not?

All the gold ever mined (about 145,000 tonnes) would fit into a cubic space measuring just 20 yards on each side.


mas (1/7/04; 06:25:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114787)
E.U. - IR's
Spoke with bankers in EU over Christmas, guess's are IR's are going UP. And not down as TV talking heads say.
Do I believe they will go up, sure. As everyone says you can't keep them down forever, besides does the EU economy suffer? Don't think so.
Question, now Euro gold 332, when will it break lose from exchange rate tie and look at Aus/AU price - hell the 20/40 week moving averages are flatlining it together almost on the same line.
It'll break soon. Then what? Guess's?

Socrates964 (1/7/04; 06:08:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114786)
Cytek
Basically, Hamilton is singing the same tune in a different key.

He bet and bet and bet against the Nasdaq for 6 months and must have seen 100% of his capital go up in smoke. To paraphrase Lady Bracknell, to get a trade wrong once is a misfortune, to get it wrong twice starts to look like carelessness and to get it wrong three times looks like pig-headed idiocy.

Since we know that the Dow and the Nasdaq are being carried to ever greater heights on a tide of paper, the only thing that will push them down is a sign of monetary restraint by the Fed, which would also support the dollar. This is unlikely to happen in an election year because it is much more expedient in political terms for the Us government to please an indebted electorate rather than its international creditors.

Hence I suspect that Hamilton is just dressing up his losing stock index trade in forex clothes.

Evidently, I could be wrong, but we'll have to see the Euro recoil by more than 2 cents. The last rabbit they pulled out of the hat was Saddam Hussein, and it was worth less than 2 cents of countertrend on the Euro.

FX speculators unwinding a winning long Euro/short US$ trade is one thing. Putting on a potentially lethal short Euro/long US$ is an entirely different proposition.

I don't see the Euro at 1.27 as a fortuitous event caused by speculators. It is there because the ECB has understood that the $ has entered into an inflationary spiral, particularly with regard to commodities. The sellers of cognac and planes may protest, but I think that their voices will be drowned out by the broader economy that wants stable to falling oil prices. In addition, I think that there is a vocal constituency on the Republican Right that actually approves of a weak dollar because it 'punishes the Europeans'.

Note that in Euros, oil prices went down by 4% last year. Some punishment.

Only the Japanese seem not to have adjusted their stance. I can only assume that this is because they tend to be notoriously bad international investors. Even they are getting the point, though, as can be seen by the slow appreciation in the Yen.

Paper Avalanche (1/7/04; 06:07:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114785)
A glimpse into the future
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=84&art_id=vn20040107020521346C950874&set_id=1
Interesting article on how paper is already beginning to burn and gold stands as a ready replacement.

PA

Gold Standard (1/7/04; 05:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 114784)
@ Usul

That's exactly the site I was after.

My scaling was out by a factor of 1,000, but then again, so is Sir Alan's!

Many thanks!

Cheers! GS



Economan (1/7/04; 04:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 114783)
Another example of gold ignorance
"The same people who are buying gold now are the same ones who were buying the Nasdaq at the 5000 level."

I have seen this statement in several different places the last few weeks. How someone believes they are the same beast escapes me. For the record, I was selling stocks a few years ago (which some people thought was crazy at the time.)and I'm still a buyer/holder of gold today. I actually like to see the above statement because it shows the wall of worry that gold is still climbing.

Usul (1/7/04; 03:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 114782)
Gold Standard
http://www.kokogiak.com/megapenny/
You need to try harder.


Gold Standard (1/7/04; 02:35:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114781)
Trillions and trillions.....

I can recall visiting a site a couple of years ago, called something like www.pennywise.com, that showed ridiculously huge numbers like $7 trillion in a format even idiots like myself could understand.

For instance, it showed that only a couple of billion one cent pieces would build a life-size replica of the Empire State building.

I've Googled until I'm blue in the face - does anyone have the URL?

TIA, GS

Liberty Head (1/7/04; 00:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114780)
Beer, Get You Some

I waited until after the new year to sell off some equities. While it was a no brainer to buy gold when it was $280, I'm more reluctant to buy more right now.
I decided to hold off for a couple more weeks to see if there is a pull back in the POG.
I find waiting for pull backs is easier when the frig is well stocked with my favorite beers. Guinness Extra Stout or Sierra Stout give me the stamina I need to last out the waiting period.

Electrolytes and conductors, a natural pairing.

Best Wishes

1340cc (1/7/04; 00:10:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 114779)
Beer convert
I didn't drink beer untill I found Indeo. It was in the late 70's at a Shakeys Pizza place on East Colfax in Denver. You can find it but it's not a easy thing to do. If you are ever in Mexico they have it there.

Tried Chili Beer ONCE and that was enough!



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