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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/7/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

timbervision (04/07/02; 23:27:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 72943)
darkhorse
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your thoughts and understand exactly what you mean by the "IF's". I sold my house recently and now rent, and used the proceeds to pay off my mortgage, some debt, and buy gold. My remaining debt is relatively manageable. Partly what led me to ask the question is that I've been suggesting to some people to get out of debt and get into gold and one friend has sold his 5 condo rental properties. Until I reread FOA's point about inflation not deflation, I'd been thinking that the housing bubble was the next to go, and thus a major deflation in housing was pending. I wrote my question partly from worry that my suggestions might not necessarily have been the best or at least critically necessary.

Thanks again. "Just basic ideas" can't go too wrong.

TownCrier (04/07/02; 22:47:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 72942)
Guilty or not, there will be a growing taint to build upon that of A.Andersen and Enron
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020407/markets_bonds_goldman_2.html
Goldman Sachs falls under scrutiny

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An investigation by U.S. regulators into Treasury bond trading at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. could break new legal ground if it leads to the first-ever charges against a Wall Street firm for insider trading of U.S. government securities.

...The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has asked Goldman for information about its dealings in 30-year bonds on the morning of Oct. 31, 2001, when the Treasury triggered an explosive bond rally by announcing it would suspend sales of the one-time benchmark issue.

Goldman Chief Executive Henry Paulson told his firm's shareholders on Friday that a private consultant who was in the Treasury press room on Oct. 31 called the firm with early news that the government would suspend future sales of 30-year bonds.
-------(click URL for more)--------

Where can you turn when all on Wall Street appears tainted?

Gold remains unstained, shining brightly as a beacon of unassailable integrity and wealth. Call Centennial and get your order in the pipeline.

R.

darkhorse (04/07/02; 22:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 72941)
@Timbervision
There's quite a few big IF's to your questions. You're asking "...would it still not be better now to use any spare cash to buy gold instead of paying off debt. Since gold is set to rise quickly and then inflate with inflation wouldn't one be better off buying gold vs. paying off debt?" Well, maybe so...

IF you and FOA are right about "...there will not be a deflationary depression rather an inflationary one." and "The debt could then be paid off with inflated dollars." Inflated dollars (as long as you've still got your income) would go further towards more "old" debt, but if deflationary times come after you've run up all that debt you're in serious trouble (still assuming you've got your job).

IF you're right that gold would go up, fast. If it doesn't go up as much/as fast as you figured, you may get caught that way also.

Let's compare it with the idiots, uh, investors that took out a second mortgage and max'd out their credit cards to get more cash to invest in the tech mania. I'm sure they were thinking along the same lines as you are asking, but it most definitely didn't go the way they thought it would. How do you think those people are sleeping these days (nights)? IMHO, better to accumulate what you can, when you can without going further into debt. Just basic ideas, I'm sure you can get a better answer from quite a few people here. A wise man always seeks good counsel.

timbervision (04/07/02; 21:24:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 72940)
From FOA
"A simple person can control his controllers by staying out of debt and owning a wealth no government can dictate the value of: Gold Bullion!"


FOA in his posts describes how there will not be a deflationary depression rather an inflationary one. And in his 10/25/01 #125 post he asks the question "So what does this have to do with Real estate?". After reading what he had to say I wasn't clear how one might handle their real estate investments in preparation for this coming inflationary spiral. Because FOA recommends we get out of debt, is this necessary, provided one locks in a multi-year fixed interest rate. The debt could then be paid off with inflated dollars. Even if one couldn't get a long term (low relative to the rising inflationary rates) fixed rate of interest, say on a credit card balance, would it still not be better now to use any spare cash to buy gold instead of paying off debt. Since gold is set to rise quickly and then inflate with inflation wouldn't one be better off buying gold vs. paying off debt?

Any thoughts from anyone would be appreciated.

Also does FOA's inflationary argument apply equally to other currencies, for example the Canadian dollar?


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (04/07/02; 21:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 72939)
Upside resistance levels: The Shadows Knows
If the POG breaks 320 and holds for a month, then it begins a derivatives short covering meltdown. What would the Cabal do in such a scenario? Simple, it's a replacement of shorting attack at a new higher level. "We can't hold it below 300 so we'll move to 350 and attack it from there." That is what I think it will do. And they will finance the merger mania of hedged after unhedged producers to get their gold sold forward.

But....Once the Chinese see the profits the Japanese made buying gold....Then the Koreans will be choking on their kimchee not owning enough gold.....full scale buying frenzy in the ricelunds.

Sierra Madre (04/07/02; 21:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 72938)
Blair, you're one tough hombre...

Yeah, sure, real tough guy...

But what we shall NEVER EVER hear you say is:

"The message to Sharon is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in, anyone, any time, any place, that the international community demands."

Because you know very well who can whup your....

Right?

Sierra



sector (04/07/02; 20:52:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 72937)
Bay Area Housing Inflation...In a Recession?...It Seems So...Sounding Like the Late 70's Every Day
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/04/07/IN110083.DTL
REAL ESTATE
How High Can Home Costs Go?
California's castles in the air defy the law of gravity

Louis Freedberg, Insight Senior Writer Sunday, April 7, 2002

When it comes to the Bay Area housing market, it's as if the dot-com collapse and the other economic setbacks of the past two years never happened.

As traffic eased up on Bay Area highways because there were fewer commuters traveling to work, housing prices were supposed to ease up too.

But we're right back to the familiar rituals of mobbed open houses, competing offers and houses selling for way above the asking price. "After all the economic upheaval of the past few months, I never expected it to be this crazy," said Norma Sayage, the owner-broker of Realty Executives in Millbrae.

In fact, she added, it's as crazy as it was a year and a half ago. The competition these days is not only for single family homes, but for multi-unit buildings, where multiple offers have become the norm. What on Earth is going on?

By conventional economic rules, the Bay Area's unemployment rates should have had a dampening effect on the housing market. "If people are hurting for jobs, they shouldn't be jumping over themselves to get a home," said Sayage.

But people are continuing to jump, lured by low interest rates and fears of investing in anything they can't see (like hidden partnerships or inexplicable derivatives).

Housing prices in the Bay Area did go down, briefly. In February, the last month for which figures are available, they declined by 2 percent from a year ago.

Big deal.

The median cost of a Bay Area house is still $373,000, down from $381,000 a year ago. Housing prices dropped 14 percent in San Mateo County, the biggest decrease of any Bay Area county. But they're still far above what most people can reasonably afford. In San Francisco, the median price is $504,000; in Burlingame, it's $782,000, and in Tiburon, a cool $1.4 million. In Contra Costa, Solano and Napa counties, home prices increased by 5 percent or more over the


mikal (04/07/02; 20:39:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 72936)
As financial news zeroes in on scandal and dissappointment, the world economies future is darkened, at times shrouded from view by stories such as this: future
http://timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_ID=6186067


MONDAY, APRIL 08, 2002
THE TIMES OF INDIA Israel needs three more weeks to finish operation
AFP [ SUNDAY, APRIL 07, 2002  8:39:55 PM ]
JERUSALEM: The Israeli army needs around three more weeks to complete its military sweep of Palestinian towns and cities in the West Bank, chief of staff General Shaul Mofaz told parliament on Sunday.
"We need at least four weeks from the beginning of the operation. Eight weeks would be much better for the second step," said Mofaz, who sent in his tanks and troops to Ramallah on March 27 before re-occupying most other West Bank towns.
He did not specify what the second step might be, but said the political leadership was examining the situation. "After that we'll withdraw but we will deploy our forces in a different way to before," he said.
Operation Defensive Wall, as Israel calls its invasion of Palestinian self-rule towns, has been underway for 10 days, plunging the West Bank into frenzied fighting and sending shockwaves through the region........click link for more


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (04/07/02; 20:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72935)
Just a ramble before the Rumble
The morass of the paper gold pushers is not to be taken seriously, friends in gold! It is as simple as this to me. I walked into the seafood shop and wanted to buy a dozen crabs. There were some live ones in a bucket in the window. The man says "Its only a dollar extra to have them steamed". I know they sell old dead cooked re-steamed crabs after they do the switcheroo behind the backcounter and not wanting to die prematurely, I said "No thankyou I want the real live ones. I could hear him curse under his breath as he picked up the dozen wigglers. He probably was selling crabs that died all day long to dummies who bought "steamed crabs". It's no different with gold. The "live gold" market RULES and the paper dead-gold market WILL GET TRASHED in the process of time. What fool is going to part with physical gold at the dead gold price? Well we just have a few too many live crabs in the window. Once physical delivery orders back up and can't be filled, it will start a bidding "premium" war. "yes I can fill your order but the premium has increased". This will happen all over. Gold cannot sell for 312 "physical" in India and for 299 "paper"in New York at the with half a day apart. BIFURCATION will occur and the futures contracts redeamed in dollars will be trashed with a falling dollar. Like bailing out your boat as it goes over the falls. Dual markets occur once new supplies cannot be secured for sales. We can have peace in the mideast, gold will still rise. When have the Japanese ever parted with things real. They are an old world mentality. Gold buryers, all of them. We have nothing to fear the Japanese housewives are here. Joe sixpack is one day going to one day roll out of bed and want to buy an ounce of gold. It's like the fear of impotence. I GOT NO GOLD...........bummer dewd......gotta go get some. Pronto. So it's 1849 all over at your corner coin store getting ripped of with excessive premiums. Lemmings a leapin. Like volume dries up before the breakout. What no one has everyone will want.

Britian--which way did it go, euro or buck? They physically have to join the euro but their assets are in America. So if the dollar falls they loose. If they don't integrate with the EU they stagnate and become a swamp. Expect some eloquent double talk while royalty rigs their yachts for New Zealand.

Japan--with "the mob" instead of the SEC, senile reformers who never figured out that they could have become the Switzerland of Asia back when they had strong yen. Now it's a whitewashed basket case.

China--bonds for Taiwan....you take down those hotels on New York, Tenessee, and St. James Avenue and I'll let you pass since you landed on my hotel on Boardwalk.

Mideast Peas Process--They call for a ceasefire because its difficult to prepare sand bags with snipers active. It gives them time to dig in, finish some concrete, string up some razor wire, mourn for the dead, father to son chats, etc. Have to brief the troops on all the new lands they now own.

Price of Oil--Duke,duke,duke...duke of Earl...duke,duke....nothing can stop.....the Duke of Earl. The drainplug of the American Empire. No, don't touch that dial. TXCO...look at the pattern....whiskey on steriods. Hold your horses because that's what we're all going to be driving if we mess with Iraq. They'll never nuke us. They can nuke the oilfields and let us eat cake. Like a complicated chess game during an earthquake. MADD---mutually assured "Daddy we just want to move in with you".

The book you can read to heed..."The Great Reckoning" by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees Mog. A Classic you gotta have it. If you never read it you just aren't scared enough. 3 inches thick and too real to enjoy. Macroeconomic theory in a non-linear world of spoof economic policy voodoo.

I love my country too so don't be scorning this above like I don't bleed red, white, and a Hue of blue. I'm a realist. Those not saying truth are supressing it. Dig your shelter and pray it won't be your grave. The priests bear rule by their own means and my people love to have it so and what will ye do in the end thereof. Two bit superficial plastic church religion, where everyone pays and nobody prays.. thats why fiat will fail. The Almighty isn't getting "good vibes" from the lower 48. The house of cards is all held together with the His glue. When it's to come down, it's coming down.









Canuck (04/07/02; 20:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 72934)
What?
"Ms Jackson said: "I think it is very irresponsible to be upping the rhetoric with regard to any possible action on Iraq without the relevant evidence that Saddam is engaged in the creation of weapons of mass destruction and has the ability to deliver them."

It is rumoured that Ms. Jackson has no opinion of the fact that the Iraqi leader pays people to strap dynamite and bombs around their waists and blow up civilians in restaurants.



Canuck (04/07/02; 19:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 72933)
Silver Bugs
As I mentioned last week I am reading a great book about the silver bull run of Oct. 1979 - Mar. 1980. I am nearly finished and will probably re-read importants sections thereafter.

This is what I have picked up so far:

Although unreal amounts of money are bet whether silver will be X or Y in a given month, the 'bet' is simply that; the winner takes the losers money. It is rare that silver changes hands, in fact less than 2 or 3% of the time. As at the 'track' (as ORO pointed out) vast sums of money are placed on various horses (ie: their time to run the race) There is no interest in the horse, the horse owner, the track itself or for anything involving the track; the winner takes the losers money.

Perhaps if horse races were being outlawed there might be a vested interest in purchasing the horse?

If the commodities betting arena (ie Comex) is betting heavy on the price to drop it HAS INFLUENCE on the price of the real thing to drop; and conversely, likewise. Should one appreciate the 'paper' price, definitely but the betting price (ie of silver) is not the price of (physical) silver.

During the fall of '79 it appeared that several physical longs were going to suddenly 'take delivery' and force a 'squeeze'. If the longs had intention to hold their position the price would skyrocket and the shorts would be trapped. The rule makers changed the rules (apparently often) so that the physical trap could not be set. It was very disconcerting for COMEX that the longs would take delivery. This apparently was the key to the squeeze. I feel it paramount to mention that the seizing of physical was the setup. I also feel it important to mention that as paper longs came to play, endless paper shorts appeared to squash any trend. As silver rose the weak shorts went bankrupt leaving only a handful of shorts to battle only a handful of longs.

Comex changed the rules in the favor of the shorts repeatedly to end the bleeding. The paper markets almost lost 'connection' to the physical price. This has been mentioned numerous times on this forum, the paper/physical disconnect.

Notice to 'take delivery' played a vital role in 79/80, it may again as we see the quantity of shorts narrow to any a handful. Thanks to Mr. Butler for continuing reports.

I read on...............



Cavan Man (04/07/02; 19:12:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72932)
Iraq: end game?
Despite MP and Brit Military "unease"....
Blair backs military action to topple Saddam

British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair tonight risked a furious row with a significant element in his own Labour Party by threatening military action to topple Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's "brutal" regime.

Mr Blair pledged there would be no "precipitive action" but delivered a blunt warning to Saddam that he had to allow weapons inspectors back into his country "any time, any place that the international community demands".

The British Prime Minister's toughest talk yet on Iraq came in a speech at the George Bush Senior Presidential Library in College Station, Texas, after two days of talks with the present president, George W Bush.

Mr Blair said: "We must be prepared to act where terrorism or weapons of mass destruction threaten us.

"The fight against international terrorism is right. We should pursue it vigorously, not just in Afghanistan but elsewhere ... Since September 11 the action has been considerable, in many countries, but there should be no let up.

"If necessary the action should be military and again, if necessary and justified, it should involve regime change."

In recent weeks nearly 150 backbench MPs, most of them Labour and several of them former government ministers, have signed a Commons early day motion expressing "deep unease" at Britain's potential involvement in any military action against Iraq.

Tonight one of the EDM's signatories, former Labour minister Ms Glenda Jackson, branded Mr Blair's comments "irresponsible".

Ms Jackson said: "I think it is very irresponsible to be upping the rhetoric with regard to any possible action on Iraq without the relevant evidence that Saddam is engaged in the creation of weapons of mass destruction and has the ability to deliver them.

"Until that potential has been verified, the international community should be concentrating on what is already happening in the Middle East."

In his speech, Mr Blair said the international community could not intervene in all cases "but where countries are engaged in the terror or weapons of mass destruction business, we should not shirk from confronting them".

Mr Blair said he hoped Syria, Iran and North Korea could be persuaded to reform.

But he went on: "As for Iraq, I know some fear precipitive action. They needn't. We will proceed, as we did after September 11th, in a calm, measured, sensible but firm way.

"But leaving Iraq to develop weapons of mass destruction in flagrant breach of no less than nine separate United Nations Security Council resolutions, refusing still to allow weapons inspectors back to do their work properly, is not an option.

The regime of Saddam is detestable, brutal, repressive, political opponents routinely tortured and executed.

"It is a regime without a qualm in sacrificing the lives of its citizens to preserve itself, or starting wars with neighbouring states and it has used chemical weapons against its own people.

"The moment for decision on how to act is not yet with us. But to allow weapons of mass destruction to be developed by a state like Iraq without let or hindrance would be grossly to ignore the lesson of September 11 and we will not do it.

"The message to Saddam is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in, anyone, any time, any place, that the international community demands."

PA

© The Irish Times/ireland.com


Cavan Man (04/07/02; 18:35:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 72931)
Privateer,USAGOLD,Siochain
Thank you all. I am reminded to renew my subscription.

Privateer (04/07/02; 18:18:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 72930)
From The Privateer to USAGold and Soichain
http://www.the-privateer.com
Thank you MK, and thanks for the opportunity to post my link

Siochain, I do appreciate your evaluation of my analysis. I know that there is a great tendency, especially amongst people who take ideas seriously, to want "everybody" to read stuff they deem worthwhile. I do NOT think you had any other reason for posting my material. Your apology is accepted.



USAGOLD (04/07/02; 18:08:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 72929)
Privateer. . . .
I wish you well my swashbuckling friend. I know many appreciate your analysis. We do not need freebies here. Siochain has posted the appropriate apology and the posts are gone as I know Siochain would have it. So, can we get you to post something of interest to the Table that might interest us all? Please attach a link back to your site -- on the house. MK

Siochain (04/07/02; 17:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 72928)
@Privateer
I sincerly apologized..I believe I did refernce from Privateer at the begiining of the first post and then wrote and further...I thought the paragraphs/analysis were of such importance that they needed to be shared...again my apologies

Privateer (04/07/02; 17:42:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 72927)
Privateer copyright infringement
Siochain (04/07/02; 16:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 72917)

Your entire message - and the previous one - is lifted verbatim from the latest (April 7 - Number 447) issue of The Privateer. You have quoted the first three pages in their entirety.

Any Privateer subscriber reading your posts can veryify this with the latest issue, which was emailed yesterday.

You have trampled all over my COPYRIGHT - which is stated right on the newsletter, you have also done so with woefully inadequate attribution.

MK, having been given the opportunity to include some of my material on your site, I know you for an honourable individual. I would appreciate it if you would pull Sochain's two postings, as they are in blatant copyright violation.





slingshot (04/07/02; 17:36:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 72926)
RobotGuy
Ah, The Nectar of the Gods.
Hang in there RobotGuy for it may be a long trip to the End of the Rainbow. :o)
Slingshot-----------------<>

goldquest (04/07/02; 16:54:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 72925)
correction message #72923
make that precedes.

YGM (04/07/02; 16:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 72924)
More fuel on the fires of protest...
http://www.arabia.com/afp/news/mideast/article/english/0,10846,177039,00.html
One can only wonder what the next week holds....
BTW...world events to my mind "ARE" the singlemost important factor affecting Gold/PM prices. Therefore it stands to reason talk of same is not detracting from Gold but adding to insight and reasons for owning same. One big difference between here and over-there is lack of censorship. Civility and in the case of off topic comments, then brevity is or should be respected..IMHO

"GO GATA & GO PHYSICAL"

goldquest (04/07/02; 16:45:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 72923)
@Leigh
I stand corrected. I was just basing my thoughts on the title that proceeds the latest messages, "WELCOME TO TODAY"S GOLD DISCUSSION!" My apologies.

Siochain (04/07/02; 16:40:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 72922)
@Robot Guy
Hey...after doing some of the catch up reading and research on the net today...I think I need some of the barley!!!

Glad I've got gold too!!

RobotGuy (04/07/02; 16:30:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72921)
Hmmmm, uh sorry folks.
Mental note to self, do not attempt to participate in an intellectual forum while heavily influenced by barley/malt nectars.
If there were an option to delete one's own post, I would have wisely exercised this option in a moment.
If I could figure out exactly what I was trying to say, I would translate it for you.

Please pay no attention to my previous post.

:)

Leigh (04/07/02; 16:30:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 72920)
goldquest
If you go back a ways in the archives and the Hall of Fame, you'll find that this has always been a gold forum with oil overtones. Read Aristotle's series on Gold and Oil, or some of Another's old posts. For a long time, though, oil and the Middle East weren't in the news as they are today.

goldquest (04/07/02; 16:18:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 72919)
Ah, Yes,
I used to enjoy visiting this site when it was still a gold forum!

Siochain (04/07/02; 16:07:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 72918)
@YGM
I think one of the tests as to whether Sadam has those terrible weapons will be the outcome of the British talks...I find it hard to believe that if the USA has convincing proof of these new bombs in Iraqi Hands or placed in the US and elsewhere in the world that Blair would not support FAST removal...and that other European nations wouldn't support ...even if reluctantly

TownCrier (04/07/02; 15:32:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 72915)
A good reason for gold ownership
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020407/ap_on_re_mi_ea/blair_5
------Many foreign leaders, including U.S. allies, worry about Bush's intentions. Chinese President Jiang Zemin, in remarks published Sunday, urged the United States to refrain from military action against Iraq. "International disputes cannot be solved by force," Jiang said.---------
---

The fate of the dollar -- perhaps moreso than any other single national currency -- rests in the global hands of "the market", and China is among those whose decisions to hold or to sell could "influence" the matter in no small way. A point of leverage for solving disputes without force, I'd say.

R.

uponroof (04/07/02; 15:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 72914)
What happens to POG when US soldiers invade Iraq?
Just checking in.

Interesting middle east events underway.

The diminishing of the Israeli/Palestinian crisis through Bush/Blair politicizing is going to have a direct affect on POG.

First POG will retreat as those tensions ease. We'll probably see that this week. Perhaps even testing the low 290's.

This crisis 'easing', real or perceived, will signal the Bush administration to act quickly on another front. That being to renew the war on terrorism inside of Iraq....

after which POG will easily break the 307, and then 330 cielings.

FWIW.

Belgian (04/07/02; 14:22:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 72913)
Tony Blair Speech in the lone star state !
ONLY "ONE" ALL ENCLOSING WORD AT THE EPICENTER OF FUTURE ACTIONS AND POLICIES < LOUD AND CLEAR >:

******** OIL ******

For the rest I don't dare to express my opinion on the decodations of the speech !

Siochain (04/07/02; 13:32:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 72912)
@Sierra Madre
Actually Debka had predicted that the King of Jordan and the President of Egypt would not attend the Arab Conference long before it was announced that they would not go ....Debka's reason was that credible details of assassinations had been picked up and taken quite seriously.



Siochain (04/07/02; 13:22:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 72911)
@YGM
I do not consider it off topic....but very pertinent.

Though I do not know much on the subject,,,I'd rather have info to check out ....both what may be happening and possible preparation

There is much going on that we are not hearing about...it bothers me that more info is often found in non-USA news while our mainstream media keeping mum and non questioning

Apparently the rule of the day is to keep the people in the dark and happy...doesn't sound like a republic to me!

Pippin (04/07/02; 12:32:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 72910)
USAGOLD - Sector - Elliott Waves
I want to thank you both for having taken the time and made the effort to give me an answer.

Usagold: I obviously don't need Elliott Waves to know that I have to continue buying gold :-) but I find the subject fascinating and intellectually stimulating indeed ...although the gold trail is even more challenging for the newbie.

Sector: I understand. I wondered about the same question concerning the stock market and the impact of automatic trades generation by computers (Pension Funds and Mutual Funds particularly): they probably don't reflect the average investor's psychology either, so I don't know how they fit in the Elliott Waves system.

I believe it was in this forum that I read something about Kondratieff's cycles and waves. Any relationship with the Elliott waves, and any interest as far as gold is concerned?




Siochain (04/07/02; 12:16:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 72909)
Goldman & Morgan Stanley led Friday's assault (plus Rubin's new ally)
From Cafe

Gold was fixed in the AM in London at $300.80, followed by a PM Fix of $301. Demand was strong as evidenced by a quick pop in the price during the early New York trading session. Right after the pairing up of buyers and sellers at the PM Fix was finished, gold was trashed by Goldman Sachs, followed by a pelting from fired-up "Hannibal Cannibal" Morgan Stanley.

Funds were early buyers, except for one big fund that was selling above $300, basis April. Goldman and Morgan Stanley got shorter and shorter along with the locals as the Comex trading day went on. They tried to get the fund seller to blow out below $300, basis April, to precipitate stops. But their effort failed, as he would not sell down. Meanwhile, strong physical buying showed up on the gold price break from dealers. Near the close it became apparent that the orchestrated Gold Cartel ploy to bash the market would fail, so the pressing shorts covered, which caused the late run-up.

For the second day in a row, gold closed $2 off its lows. I cannot recall that happening before and gives credence to the notion that the cabal is having great difficulty in their efforts to bury gold again.

(Note to Trapper....I am staying with Schwab because their is no proof whether the shorting was for their account or clients...though as I mentioned,,,it is important that we all be sure that brokers cannot use our shares for shorting...you can call your broker to verify about your shares...and if they use for shorting,,,get it changed.

I will continue to post those banks/brokers etc that are actively working each day to take down gold...and would hope that any readers will consider moving their accounts or writing )

One other "interesting" tidbit:

Reuters Securities
Deutsche Bank hires Rubin as energy credit analyst

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a unit of Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), said on Friday it has hired Robert Rubin from Goldman Sachs & Co. (GS - news) as a senior investment-grade credit analyst covering the electric utility and energy sectors. Rubin had been responsible at Goldman Sachs for credit research in the utility, power and natural gas sectors, Deutsche Bank said. Previously, he was a credit analyst at Bear Stearns & Co., it said. Rubin will report to Marion Boucher-Soper, Deutsche Bank's head of U.S. investment-grade credit research.




Belgian (04/07/02; 12:14:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 72908)
Deutsche Bank (DB) derivatives and Bundesbank Gold reserves ?
DB is the largest bank in the world by assets but trading barely over bookvalue. (EMU/US banks = 2,3/3,7 times bookvalue). This makes DB somewhat special not in the least that it is a possible take over target (?).
DB = Germany Incorporated as a very large Shareholder of German quoted stocks (Holding).

If (!) DB is in the need of Physical Gold to protect/consolidate its "unknown" derivative position...it (DB) will search for Physical Gold and find it ! Be it in some more minehedging on top of the 3.000 tonnes existing...or private Gold holders... or the Bundesbank 3.500 tonnes of reserves !
We don't have the slightiest clue on the *nature* and lifetime (volume-?) of the derivatives. Therefore we can't project/guess the amount of Physical needed and for how long and at what POG-level. All speculations are are indeed theory.

ECB Gold and EMU-members National Gold are different in nature and this must still have some space for discussion.
Is all this Physical Reserve Gold equal to euro-currency Gold-reserve ? How much of these total Gold Reserves can be used (consumed) for National emergencies or applications ?

Bottomline : The more Physical reserve that leaves the vaults...the higher POG/Valuation shall be / must be , once EMU will use Gold-Reserves for dollar-loss COMPENSATION !

At present the Japanese are the only savers in need and possibility (!) to accumulate (unexpectedly) more Physical than the gold-derivative architects (hum) ever could have expected. Kind of imponderabile that causes accidents.

So far no other holders of dollar/euro confetti felt the urge to start buying/accumulating abnormal/disturbing volumes of Physical Gold. And as long as POG doesn't give a signal (EW II), all is fine in LALA-Land(s).
No POG rise, no US$ decline...no US$ decline, no POG rise !

No default possible for DB or any Japanse or other banks !
The perfect managed world !? Only an infinitesimal minority has enough perception of the coming storm(s) to justify buying Gold coins at 300$ and holding them for revaluation at 3.000$ or 30.000$ !

If Welteke and or DB don't find the necessary Physical in this falsified goldmarket anymore...they will find another way of making the whole circus keeping afloat ! Selective and contained defaults and genial inventivity in all kinds of constructions is on its highs in this sub-culture.
Creative wizards can make derivatives appear and disappear on books and places.

Once this culture (?) hits the iceberg...the spotlights flash full power on the yellow and make it shine brightly.
Indiscriminately of how much tonnes of Physical remain in wich vault. Did we ever had full exposure or any kind of transparancy on the London Gold Pool affair ? No !
Today, Gold's transparancy is as dark as the new war-reporting. No pictures or pré-fabricated (misleading) pictures and comments !

The only way of prooving your belief in Gold's future is by accumulating coin after coin. Give this 21 th century Gold Pool a hard time by Exchanging your honest deserved confetti for the most precious tangible ever. Participate in the paper-sub-culture at your peril. And don't count on other Japanese to exchange savings for Gold. The Argentinians had put their faith into the US$ and Honest Banks ! They didn't had the chance to scramble for Gold.
How many other people have that same faith and will be excluded from the life saving boat ? Talker Welteke and other more silent central bankers, know the value of Gold as a monetary reserve and realize very well that we will never know how much of it we will need, shortly !
Paper punters (banks) will be saved....with more of that same paper they produced and at worst with an absolute minimum of monetary reserve Gold. Plunder uncertain underground gold fist !

sector (04/07/02; 12:14:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 72907)
@Pipin The answer to your question...
...flows from the reality of market manipulations.

As in the JPM/Hamanaka/Copper fraud [Case just closed this week], the commodity prices were [for copper] and are [for gold] under the sole control of the manipulator.

It really IS that simple...and also that complex when the supply of physical metal to sell runs dry.

One can examine all the wave theory in the universe and still end up with that reality. The London Gold Pool and many other examples abound.

The US [Or any other central government] does not view gold as wealth, they view un-backed paper as wealth therefore they cannot be lumped in with other gold market participants in a theory of action. This heterogeneous mix of players with different goals makes the Ellioit Wave Theories useless for today's gold market.

The more useful analysis tends toward viewing the government's actions in the context of a pending exhaustion of metal to sell.

The consequences of this exhaustion is a 10X devaluation as in 1971. So as we edge closer to the denouement, government actions should become more frenetic [As in the Jan FOMC statements about "...buying gold mines...any asset"], extreme [As in the long bond assassination] and predictable [as in Paul O’Neill's "…what recession? Comment].


YGM (04/07/02; 12:07:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 72906)
Off Topic......(Sorry)
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2002/0326.htm
The other day someone questioned the reality of Red Mercury in Nukes, I believe. As I cannot remember who asked I'll just post this link....Again sorry for interupting the financial discussion ongoing (as it should be).....YGM

BTW>>I myself am not necessarily convinced of the veracity of this article, but do want answers to many questions, so I continue to read and question endlessly.....Posted links are the key to ongoing knowledge and understanding.....
Got any to share :o)

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