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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/7/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Shermag (12/07/00; 23:52:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 43184)
YGM, Earthlights NASA image
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0011/earthlights_dmsp_big.jpg
Impressive sight.

A lot can be seen in the image. It puts a whole new meaning to the phrase " Africa, the dark continent".


SHIFTY (12/07/00; 23:42:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 43183)
Gold Fields-Franco Nevada
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2422569AE0059A81A?OpenDocument
Gold Fields-Franco Nevada merger dealt cruel blow

Gold Fields' hopes of merging with Canadian company Franco Nevada have been dented following the $830 million share swap between Anglo American and Rembrandt Holdings. The outcome of that transaction, announced on Wednesday (06 December), is that Anglo holds 17 per cent of Gold Fields. This is a large enough interest to obstruct the gold company's renewed merger proposals with Franco Nevada.

Willie Jacobsz, spokesman for Gold Fields, concedes his company will require a 68 per cent turnout in favour of the merger just to out-vote Anglo if the London-listed mining house decides the merger is not in its interests. In addition, Anglo requires just seven more per cent of Gold Fields to block the merger proposal outright.

This is assuming Anglo would want to block the merger. There is no consensus the mining house is against the potential Gold Fields-Franco Nevada transaction.

Market speculation is that a fresh merger proposal between Gold Fields and Franco Nevada is currently being reviewed by government. The South African finance ministry objected to Gold Fields' earlier merger proposal with Franco Nevada as the merged entity intended taking a primary listing in Toronto. Anglo might also object, too, assuming it operates in the interests of subsidiary AngloGold which is thought to covet some of Gold Fields' assets.


megatron (12/07/00; 23:35:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43182)
GAMBLING ANYONE?
Anyone want to bet Greenspan knew 'nothing' about INTEL
sales numbers when he made his little speech Tues?
He truly is a human garbage.

SHIFTY (12/07/00; 23:11:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 43181)
YGM
Lights
Could be they are under the snow. You may have more neighbors than you think.

:-)

Things are too quiet tonight. Could be interesting in the morning.

$hifty

SHIFTY (12/07/00; 22:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 43180)
YGM
Three Lights
I see them. Which one is your porch light? he he he
If it was a live web cam you could blink on and off!

$hifty

YGM (12/07/00; 22:43:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 43179)
$hifty....
Whole lotta Mushrooms up here!
and then there's those that take the missus to bed early...Save on heating bills...so as to buy more Au/Ag :-))
Anyway if you look 2" east of Anchorage you might see the three lights of Yukon Towns....The Pic makes me feel Lucky more than Isolated....YGM

SHIFTY (12/07/00; 22:04:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 43178)
Randy (@ The Tower)
Christmas decorations
How are the Christmas decorations coming along? I'm thinking you are cooking up something real good. I'm starting to expect an extravaganza!

:-)

$hifty

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/07/00; 21:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 43177)
Beesting, good question. Try looking at it this way...
You asked, "Can anybody out there explain in very simple English where 2,764 tonnes of Physical Gold sold over the last 10 years came from and how much more is left???"

And you also said, "I can't buy that one [Gold mine hedging makes up the difference] because a hedge is a contract or derivative ""PAPER"" representing physical Gold. When the Gold is delivered (usually by a mine) from a hedged position it becomes physical Gold added into the annual physical Gold consumption figures.Gold mines publish all Gold mined as it is mined, in annual reports! I don't believe unmined Gold could be added into consumption figures, until it's mined."

Given your preceding statement, along with your awareness that the LBMA clears on the average 700 -1000 gold tonnes daily, pause for a moment to consider the full depth of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's candid admission during Humphrey-Hawkins testimony that our modern money begs for a definition that no one is easily able to provide. And just as the simplistic response of "dollar" fails to pass muster due to the trading practices employed on related and derivative financial instruments, in like manner would the answer "yellow metal" come up short in defining what passes for gold in the modern gold markets.

When you open up your thought to include this ill-defined aspect of the gold market and the resulting impact on hard "supply" and "demand" figures, you can more easily come to understand how such gaps in the numbers may be filled. The hard numbers (and shortfall) you've cited tend to measure the institutional flow passing through the refineries (newly mined and scrap/recycled), the jewelers, and the mints; while missing much gold supply and demand related to bullion banking operations.

Just as conventional banking allows the same original dollar to appear to be in many places at once, through bullion banking the same can be said of gold. Picture two kilograms of last year's new production being refined into Johnson Matthey bars that go to supply one kilo investment demand and one kilo jewelry demand. The supply/demand numbers seem to balance. During the course of the year, picture that investment bar being deposited with a bullion banking member of the LBMA to be leased out to earn interest. Thus, when mine production next year provides two kilos of material to the Johnson Matthey refiner, can you see how the jewelry industry can easily have its new demands for three kilos met, though the standard numbers would suggest a shortfall?

The very tip of the iceberg, that. (Consider further the investment demand that is satisfied entirely within the bullion banking system without showing up or stressing the traditional, measurable investment outlets such as the Perth, Austrian, Royal Canadian, or U.S. mints.) Now, imagine the situation during crunch time!

SHIFTY (12/07/00; 21:18:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43176)
YGM
YGM
Cool picture. It scrolls to the east also. Japan is also very bright. I'm a bit worried about Canada though. They must turn in early. :-)

$hifty

gidsek (12/07/00; 20:48:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 43175)
futures etc.
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
gidsek

YGM (12/07/00; 19:54:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 43174)
Power Shortage.....Wonder Why???
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0011/earthlights_dmsp_big.jpg
Nite view (recent) of Western World.....UNREAL!!
Looks like California is far from 'Dark'

ORO (12/07/00; 19:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 43173)
beesting - Van Eeden - and official numbers
Official gold numbers will be misleading since they only reflect the amounts captured into the statistics from the "official" economy - i.e. published numbers from gold miners, from customs, from what central banks and their banker constituency are willing to admit to. The numbers will never reveal the whole of the situation.

I lived in a country in which 40% of the economy was "underground" black market, including much of the construction industry and most of the daily foreign exchange operations. Newspapers even published "black market" exchange rates, and government had to target both official and street prices of foreign currency in order to have the desired exchange effects. Nearly everyone had some kind of business "unofficially". The US, with one of the more "on the table" economies still has a 10%-15% underground economy, depending on who's estimates one uses.

Considering the preference of participants in the underground economy for anonymity and cash, it stands to reason that gold figures more prominently in the large transactions than it does within the "official" economy. To get a handle on the gold market deficit, it should be noted that some "production" comes from vaults (since "production" is the best way to "launder" black market gold), more production is carried out on an "unofficial" basis, and much more consumption occurs than statements to customs officers will ever reveal. Furthermore, the piddling numbers given by WGC on "investment demand" (a few hundred tonnes) can hardly be regarded as more than a scratch on the surface.

If the global "black market" constitutes 25% of the global economy, then the gold "black market" is at the very least 30% larger than the official one. Probably 40-50% larger, because of the greater weight of gold transactions and savings in the "black market". However, production is more probably under weighted in the unofficial gold world relative to consumption and investment, which are over weighted. Thus the actual deficit in the gold market is most likely to be substantially higher than official numbers would allow for.

For example, the London gold pool of 1958-1968 had secretly released gold into the markets in order to prevent BOTH street and official prices from getting beyond the official dollar exchange rate of $35. By some accountings, the pool had released much more than just the 20 thousand odd tonnes from the US, but more from "unofficial" state reserves in an unknown quantity probably on the order of a further 50,000 tonnes, and perhaps double that or more.

The deficit covered by the official and unofficial gold banking system is probably substantially over 1500 tonnes per year. If the production figure is actually 20% higher than official numbers and "consumption" and investment are 30% higher than stated, then the figure is more like 1300 tonnes for 1997, and 5000 tonnes for the decade till then. Since then, the deficit must have risen to a cumulative 6500 tonnes using these same assumptions. Using a more probable 20%-25% higher production and 40%-50% higher consumption, the deficit would be 1650 to 1850 tonnes per year.

If Mr Guyatt's numbers are anywhere near reality, then the markets have been absorbing some 10,000 tonnes per year since 1954, more than that before 1971, less than that till the early 80s and more than that in the period 1984-1990, and less again since that time. Since Mr. Guyatt holds that the central banks are the trustees of this gold, and there is no reason they would behave in any other way than they had in the past regarding anything entrusted to them, they would lend the gold to other governments and private individuals and corporations that are beneath creditworthiness. They would inevitably find themselves leveraged beyond any hope of salvation, and would then proceed to hide the fact by supplying the market from their unofficial reserves till those were tapped. From that point on, they would start inventing reasons to raid official reserves so that no sign is given the markets that gold is anything but plentiful. It is the old trick of putting up gold coins at the bank counter during a bank run. So long as depositors are convinced that the bank has gold to redeem their certificates and notes, they will not demand redemption, and the bank will survive. If someone is not satisfied and redeems the last ounce available to the bank, then the game is over.

I state here outright that the official figures are well beyond misleading, they are intentionally so. Nothing is more effectively avoided than customs, particularly in gold consuming and investing nations like India, China, the Asian Tigers, and definitely any Arab oil country and any place around the Mediterranean, most notably in Italy, Greece, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia etc... The numbers are simply released into the markets to hide the scale of the actual gold market and its degree of leverage - which is likely to be near immediate collapse due to illiquidity.






SHIFTY (12/07/00; 19:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 43172)
MAXED OUT:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001207/aponline211741_000.htm
MAXED OUT: CALIFORNIA DECLARES UNPRECEDENTED STAGE 3 POWER EMERGENCY

$hifty


beesting (12/07/00; 17:44:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 43171)
Mr.Van Eeden's Essay......Randy what am I missing here?
I have read Mr Van Eeden's article twice to see if the missing physical Gold can be accounted for.(2,764 tonnes)
A snip from his article:

[Snip]
<<During the past ten years the annual supply of gold, including scrap sales, has fallen short of the fabrication demand for gold by a cumulative total of 2,764 tonnes. This is more than one year's total supply of gold from mining. On average the deficit amounts to 276 tonnes per year, 12% of the average annual mine production. In 1997, the supply deficit reached to 796 tonnes, a whopping 32% of that year's total mine production.>>[Unsnip]

The only explanations I get from Mr. Van Eeden's article are these two:

Point 1. from Mr. Van Eeden: "Gold mine hedging makes up the difference."
Comment:
I can't buy that one because a hedge is a contract or derivitive""PAPER"" representing physical Gold. When the Gold is delivered(usually by a mine) from a hedged position it becomes physical Gold added into the annual physical Gold consumption figures.Gold mines publish all Gold mined as it is mined, in annual reports!
I don't believe unmined Gold could be added into consumption figures, until it's mined.

Point 2. from Mr. Van Eeden: He seems to be saying Physical Gold at LBMA and COMEX is sold over and over or many times in the course of a year. Maybe this is true, and if it is we can almost discount the figures released by LBMA and COMEX as most of this physical Gold is involved in a continuous merry-go-round of ownership with not too much of it ever leaving the LBMA or COMEX vaults!!!

So lets once again examine where Gold is consumed.
According to all reports 80% to 85% is used worldwide for jewellery. I would guess jewelers buy and order most Gold from refineries to insure carat content.

Now the real question is:
Do refineries purchase direct from the Gold mines or do they take delivery of .995 Gold from COMEX and LBMA, and then sell to jewelers? Remember COMEX Gold is only stored in New York and jewellery is sold all over the world.

Can anybody out there explain in very simple english where 2,764 tonnes of Physical Gold sold over the last 10 years came from and how much more is left???
P.S. Central Bank sales were already added into the 10 year figures.
Thank You....beesting.





Randy (@ The Tower) (12/07/00; 17:20:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 43170)
Thanks to all who gave thought to yesterday's hypothetical but relevant questions RE Banania
Let us have a look beyond our U.S. boarders. Is the world "going for the gold"? Read this from Bridge News...

Taiwan's Nov gold imports at 21.4 tonnes vs 5.1 tonnes in Nov 1999
Taipei--Dec. 7--Taiwan's gold imports totaled 21.446 tonnes in November, compared with 5.136 tonnes in November 1999, a statement released by the Ministry of Finance Thursday indicated.
-----
And nearby in Japan, how long until they find a smooth, politically palatable transition out of an overweighted legacy position with so much paper in its forex/gold mix?

Japan forex, gold reserves record high $354.558 bln in Nov
Tokyo--Dec. 7--Japan's foreign currency and gold reserves in November totaled a record high U.S. $354.558 billion, up $5.5 billion from a month earlier, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said Thursday. The previous record high was $349.055 billion, marked in October.
-----

As an individual you do not have the ability to issue and manage your own fiat currency, and therefore, all currency-- including that issued by your nation of residence--can be perceived as your own personal holdings of forex reserves. Follow your own counsel and adjust these holdings to include a proper proportion of gold. The act is that easy, and while we are yet on a little-known weedy path through Sherwood Forest, it is soon to grow into a widely recognized and traveled freeway paving over the "old business" of the LBMA.

My words to you. Michael and the gang at Centennial would be pleased to help you facilitate the movement of gold out of weak hands and into yours.

Journeyman (12/07/00; 16:34:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 43169)
Stock market's mental health @Farfel nsg#: 43167, ALL

"Stock Market is Manic Depressive" -Farfel msg#: 43167

Second opinion: I concurr, doctor -- and love the details of your diagnosis!

Regards, J.


Sierra Madre (12/07/00; 16:31:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 43168)
Black Blade...recalling Ayn Rand
Your posts are much appreciated and always valuable. Thanks for your insights and information.

There was a time (30/40 years ago)when I was a fanatic of Ayn Rand's "Objectivism". Happily, I outgrew that stage. However, she did express some worthwhile thoughts, which remain valid. I remember her articles on "The Deindustrialization of America".

Since the system characterized by private property, free markets, solid money and limited government, which relies on individual rights and responsibilities as its "spark plug" - otherwise known as "Cap"talism" could not be dismantled on the basis of having "failed" and producing results inferior to Statism, it became necessary to discredit it through other means, not through a frontal assault on its alleged inferiority, when its superiority was palpable and evident to all.

So, environmentalism was invented. A back-door approach to dismantling "Capitalism". Through the creation of myriad interest groups, each with a different unrealistic sentimentality, all clamouring for restrictions on productive activity, the industrial base of the U.S. has been hobbled and pretty well obliterated.

"Don't let it go!" cried Ayn Rand. Well, far too many Americans have let it go.

The chickens are coming home to roost, indeed.

Forgeting the need for mighty industrial plants, power generation and transmission, pipelines, drilling activity, ships and trains, dams and canals - disregarding the fundamental need for all the physical might of physical productivity, the U.S. has swallowed the myth that wealth can be imported from nasty polluting countries of the rest of the world, while her population can live a life of ease by simply pecking away at computer keyboards.

It seems to me, that a coddled, drug-infested culture based on "if it feels good, do it" is going to react in a violent manner to the dislocations brewing in the U.S. economy.

In the coming crisis, there will be no self-restraint. That belongs to another age.

There will be Fear, when the paycheck is no longer there; when the job disappears; when savings have gone up in smoke in the bubble of recent years; when the homes in America are mortgaged and no income is available to service the mortgages; when there is no money to pay for gas to move the car and seek work. How is a population dispersed in suburbs supposed to survive without the indispensable means of transportation, which becomes prohibitively expensive?

With the Fear, will come Anger and Violence. The U.S. may, it seems to me, find itself on the verge of complete anarchy; the only viable way to control the rage of the population will be through a Dictatorship which will, unfortunately, not turn to the tried methods of raising standards of living, which require patience, forbearance, tolerance, respect for others, savings, long term objectives; all these are indispensable for obtaining, in this world, a decent material level of human life.
No, there will be a general pillage of what is left, by the Dictatorship. Do not expect Reason to prevail.

Life will go on - but not as before. An age which will be the wonder of all succeeding generations, is passing away.

My pessimism is deplorable. But, that's the way I see things. Still, in the depths of its despair I see the human race turning to spiritual values once again, that reservoir from which all great things arise.

Sierra Madre



Farfel (12/07/00; 16:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 43167)
@Journeyman, Stock Market is Manic Depressive
It swings up and swings down, but the big commercial players seem to want it to swing down most of the time.

Somehow, Mr. Greenspan MUST kill the enormous wealth effect, that is allowing SUV drivers to consume gasoline without restraint; that allows homes to be heated at high temperatures with precious natural gas, without restraint, etc., etc.

It is stagflation, in which sectoral commodity inflation is speeding up like a race horse at the Kentucky Derby. He knows that, with foreign capital withdrawing, and with a stagflation mounting, in reality, an interest rate HIKE makes more sense now than an interest rate drop, in order to maintain a strong US dollar and kill any sectoral super-inflation before it spills over into general industrial goods..

Of course, the big commercials see the writing on the wall
and they are using all kinds of tricks to ramp up stock prices in order to finish the distribution before the actual panic dump. They will constantly try and fool the public into believing a bottom is achieved, even as each one fails again and again. Of course, that is the imperative ingredient to a panic capitulation: so much constant disappointment that, finally, investors simply want out at any price.

The election troubles were a left field event, and who knows what's around the corner?

One thing is for sure: any panic capitulation can only occur when most investors do NOT expect trouble. Would any normal red blooded American expect trouble just BEFORE Christmas while a president is yet to be determined?

Not a chance...and that is cause for concern.


Thanks

F*

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/07/00; 15:24:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 43166)
"The dollar, the market and the inevitable", by Paul van Eeden
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html
This fine commentary was provided via e-mail from Paul van Eeden for sharing with our readers here at the Forum. Paul van Eeden, you may recall, is the author of our latest addition to The Gilded Opinion, found at the link above under the title, "Understanding Gold". Thanks again are extended to Paul for that commentary, and for this latest which is offered below. And with that said, I now turn things over to Paul...
--------------
"The dollar, the market and the inevitable -- December 5, 2000"

Another sign that US investors are still in a trance came as the Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, indicated that he is now more concerned with a softening economy than an overheating economy. This of course indicates that the Fed could soften is stance towards interest rates and it opens the way for interest rate cuts in the future. At least it now appears as if the Fed is highly unlikely to raise interest rates on December 19 and will probably leave them unchanged for the time being.

But the real irony is that the stock market reacted with euphoria to the news, with the NASDAQ up 274 points (more than 10%) and the Dow up 338 points (over 3%) on Tuesday. How is this possible? What are these people thinking? The US stock market, and by implication the investors who buy these shares, is discounting rapidly growing earnings on the back of alleged "productivity gains". The bulls argued that these productivity gains could keep the economy growing without the threat of inflation and hence we were in a "New Era".

This "New Era", like the emperor's clothes, has already been debunked - there is no need to delve into all the arguments here. What is much more interesting is to briefly recap where we came from and where we are, and to see if that sheds any light on where we may be going.

The real driving force behind the US economy was not the invention of the internet, or Corporate America's investment in computers and other technologies, it was just a mundane increase in the money supply, brought about by several converging factors outside the control of the US government. Since about 1992, the world has experienced one economic crisis after another, starting with South America and winding its way through Central America, South East Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe and most recently, Western Europe. These crises went hand in hand with currency devaluations and that, coupled with relatively high real interest rates in the United States and a relatively strong economy, caused an enormous influx of capital into the US, hence an increase in money supply.

This influx of capital reduced US interest rates by boosting bond prices and stimulated consumer spending by means of the wealth effect. It did not take long for a stock market bubble of historical proportions to develop. All that Alan Greenspan had to do was sit back and relax. He no more engineered this economic miracle than what he can prevent its demise. It was foreign capital that created this fiasco and it is the repatriation of the same foreign capital that will expose the US stock market mania for the folly that it really is.

A crucial point in all of this, and I haven't yet heard anyone mention it, is the convergence of real interest rates in Europe and the US. During the early 1990's when the currency crises swept across the world, the US economy was growing faster than Europe and real interest rates in the US were higher than in Europe. This is ultimately what drew the capital into the US. But now the US economy is slowing down and approaching that of Europe. Simultaneously, inflation is creeping up and yields are coming down, which means that real interest rates are dropping and are also converging with European real interest rates. If the Fed changes its stance towards lower interest rates, this would further speed up the convergence and the benefit to foreign investors will dissipate.

The bottom line is that while the dollar was going up against most other currencies foreign investors got a double whammy. They could make good returns on the stock and bond markets and capture a profit from the increasing dollar, in many cases yielding well over 20% per year or more in terms of their local currencies. But for now it looks as if the party's over.

For US investors the situation is just as gloomy. With the US economy slowing down, the whole house of cards falls down. A slowing economy is unlikely to deliver the optimistic earnings forecasts that Wall Street keeps touting and a declining stock market will put the wealth effect in reverse, therefore curtailing the consumer spending that has fueled much of this hysteria.

The US stock market is already looking terrible if you are in technology stocks and downright scary for the rest of the market, which appears analogous to Wiley Coyote who has just run over a cliff but has not looked down yet. Watch out below!

If the Fed raises rates, the market could collapse and consumer spending will grind to a halt possibly causing a recession. If the Fed lowers interest rates, the dollar will become unattractive to foreigners and if they repatriate their capital it could cause a collapse in the dollar, which will in turn increase US inflation due to the trade deficit and cause all sorts of pandemonium. In fact, a decline in the dollar due to foreign repatriation of funds could put upward pressure on US interest rates while the Fed might be trying to lower interest rates.

In short, I don't see a happy ending to this dilemma. Not that any investment bubble in history has ever had a happy ending. I continue to accumulate gold stocks and biding my time. Patience is a most valuable trait when it comes to investing and speculating. Of all the asset classes I can think of, none would fare better, with less risk, than gold and gold related equities.

Paul van Eeden

Journeyman (12/07/00; 14:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 43165)
Rah, rah, rah. Shish boom bah! @ALL

CNBC goes into full cheer-leader mode, saying, for example, how great it was there was such large volume traded in Motorola despite warnings and the price only dropped $.35, etc.

In the mean time, back in the semi-real world:

Trade in Intel halted: It is warning that revenues in forth quarter will be flat, down from estimates of 4% to 8% previously estimated. -CNBC Dec.7, 2000 ~4:19PM

Wachovia(sp), Bank America, etc. and other banks warn and are reporting non-performing and shakey loans. -CNBC

CDW warns.

Regards, J.


Randy (@ The Tower) (12/07/00; 14:23:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 43164)
Gentlemen (and ladies, too): Gift shopping made easy! Gold accessories available right here.
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
Marie wants me to ensure that you consider these beautiful gold gift ideas for your loved ones this year. Visit the link to learn more about the gold coin pendants, earrings, and chains (cuff links, moneyclips, and tie bars, too) that she has to offer.

Then, give Marie a call toll free at the Centennial office (800)869-5115 to discuss details and to place your order. You'll be glad you did because she'll take good care of you... an easier and more pleasant shopping assistant I simply cannot imagine.

Be sure to place your order by December 15th to ensure timely holiday delivery.

Buena Fe (12/07/00; 13:47:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 43163)
Two paths folked in the woods
Topock natgas in $35-$53 range on cold weather, power demand
New York--Dec. 7--Natural gas prices for next day delivery at the Topock
(Southern California border) point are skyrocketing as cold weather heading for
the West is creating extraordinary demand in a market already hampered by
tightness in the power sector. Topock natgas is trading in a range of $35 to
$53, up $4 to $12 from Wednesday's range, with the average price at about $45.
( Story .18448 )

AS TG SAID PHYSICAL TRADES AT ONE PRICE AND CONTRACT AT A DISCOUNT.........A REAL LIFE EXAMPLE ABOVE.

Journeyman (12/07/00; 13:15:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 43162)
Untimely warning? @ALL

- Ron Insanna reports that a treasury official (I missed his name) warns
that ~"We may suffer a more serious economic event than expected." Another
regular comments that it's unusual for a Treasury official to report on
something like this before it actually happens. Insanna concurrs. -CNBC,
Dec. 7, 2000, ~3:10PM

Regards, J.


wolavka (12/07/00; 12:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 43161)
Win some lose some
maybe tomorrow, still good support in gold and beans

Pandagold (12/07/00; 12:31:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43160)
To those of you wondering
I am reposting one of my messages from about a week ago.
as I saw someone questioning when Gore will concede.

I again, reiterate. There is a plan behind all this. Now I know I wrote this with a slight tongue in cheek, but I did add that there could be in it an element of truth. I believe now that I was more on the ball than even I thought.

I feel Gore will concede either latish on Friday,or over the weekend. It is all a question of timing to have the greates impact for what it is hoped will be achieved. That is enough feel good factor to get those tills ringing, and those Christmas goods moving,with enough 'exhuberence. to carry over the holidays. The smack in the face will come around end of January, beginning of Feb.

I think Nasdaq will break above 3000 in this pre Christmas surge - mostly caused by short covering.

Just think of how much those lawyers cleaned up from the public purse.

My earlier, last week, posting:-


How shall I know if I do choose the right? (Merchant of Venice)

Let the laws of your own land
Good or ill, between ye stand
Hand to hand, and foot to foot
Arbiter of the dispute
Shelley


If you are wondering why this electoral dispute is dragging on, and when it is likely to be settled, lets take a look at some possible beneficiaries - or who stands to gain.

The shops are stacked with Christmas goods. People spend if they have 'the feel good factor' (whatever that is).They are going to need a surge upward in the markets to restore some of that 'feel good stuff' We can assume any surge will be very short lived, so if they have it too soon it would fizzle out like a damp squib before the cash registers start ringing.

Those hard worked lawyers need some spending money, there's Christmas and for most of them Hanukkah so the longer they string it out, the bigger yacht they can buy.

The news media, and chat shows need to feed their ratings by keeping you tuned to 'tonight's re-e-eely big show', before they (the people) demand a different form of entertainment for the festive season.

Tot 'em all up and what do you get......err let's see, we have about 24 shopping days left.....................

I would guess about the 8th or 15th of December you will know who is the president. If you don't hear by the 15th it will be left until after the holidays. But my betting is before.

This is, as you will have guessed, not to be taken too seriously. Though there could be in it an element of truth.


Henri (12/07/00; 11:46:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 43159)
Randy Msg 43123, Banania
Find another island with similar culture and even some PM's resources and Buy it from the owners. Best way to retain value of fiat is to move it quickly! Repeat until you own the world.

Henri (12/07/00; 11:43:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 43158)
Topaz Msg 43128
Yahh! LOL :-)

justamereBear (12/07/00; 11:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 43157)
Beesting 43154


A few years ago I did some numbers. I took some money supply numbers, and note they did not include such things as artificial dollars such as the euro dollar market (which nobody has a handle on anyway), nor did they include seigniorage. (the amount written of as bills accidently destroyed, and bills deemed to be "out of circulation" because they are out of the country- and that is huge) I just took official figures. I took Fort Knox published reserves, without considering leases etc. Gold was higher then too. Then I just divided. It came out that the official USD had $1.92 in gold backing.

Inverting that, I found that if gold were to rise to the point that every dollar was 100% backed by gold, the price of gold would have to be approximately $16,000. per oz. Of course the government would never let that happen, and would confiscate gold long before that, but I took it to mean that an ounce of gold outside the system would have a purchasing power of $16,000.

I have since modified that view, to expecting that gold will run to well in excess of $16,000 in purchasing power, (overshoot, as normal) for a time and then drop back to the traditional price of an oz. The price of a good, tailored mans suit. As long as records have been kept, gold hovered around that range, but I doubt that you can buy a good tailored suit for 275.00 US This calculation has some pretty interesting implications for the USD, and fiat in general.

Given the amount of money that has been printed over the last few years, and the fact that the reserves are unchanged to slightly (very slightly, in the order of a FEW thousand oz.) lower, the gold backing today has to be somewhat less.

Regards
j'Bear

PS. By the way, what does a good tailored mans suit run at in New York these days?



The Hoople (12/07/00; 11:04:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 43156)
Ride they wave of the future ...
Remember those Ameritrade commercials a year or two ago with the loveable doofus Stuart goading his boss to buy 1,000 shares of Kmart instead of 100? Well, at the current $5 a share he would have vaporized about $10,800 of Mr. B.'s net worth. Don't look for that commercial to be revived soon. Maybe they could overlay a voice like in kung fu theatre and instead of "Kmart" substitute "physical gold". Oops, sorry, Ameritrade don't do gold. Get gold - it's easier than falling in love.

Belgian (12/07/00; 10:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 43155)
1 US$ = 1 EURO = 100 YEN ?
http://www.decisionpoint.com/chartspotlitefiles/chartspotmenu.html
UDX (US$-index) 1985 -1995 decline + saucer bottom 1995 -2000. Will the started decline hold in the 100-105 zone ?
A POO of 40$/50$ would be supportive.
How much can POG move without dollar decline/rise influence ?

beesting (12/07/00; 09:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 43154)
You are the Central Banker of Banania....Sir Randy # 43123.
Believe it or not we are currently checking out a 10 acre parcel in a place like Banania.

If my wife were the head of the Central Bank of Banania the first thing she would have done with the surplus export monies is build a huge bunker like the one already in the Rocky Mountains, used by NORAD.
Than as the export revenues grew as Sir Randy explained in # 43123'she would buy Gold for delivery, and store it in the mountain bunker.
The more Gold that was stored the more valuable Bananias currency would become, therefore "lowering" the price on all imported items.She would incourage Goldsmithing among the natives.
Peering into the future, other countries suffering from uncontrolled currency inflation would try to salvage as much wealth as possible by putting their currencies into Bananias Central Bank, therefore creating more wealth for Banania, as this currency would also be swapped for physical Gold.In time this would also make the POG rise worlwide as it began to eat up above ground supplies of Gold.
After about 5 years of this policy the currency of Banania would be so strong local prices of these items would look something like this:
Unleaded gas; $.20 a gallon.
A new Corvette; $1000.00.
An airplane ticket around the world; $45.00.
A new PC with all attachments $25.00.

And the best part there would be no taxes as all Government revenue could be collected from import tarriffs which the natives wouldn't feel at all since the currency was so strong.

Here is another rhetorical question;
If the Central Banks of the world combined have about 30,000 tonnes of Gold stored, and they decided they want to issue a special Gold backed currency to each other, how much would a dollar of this currency be worth in U.S. dollars?

Thanks for allowing the imagination to run free.....beesting.


Black Blade (12/07/00; 08:57:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 43153)
PGMs Rocketing!
Palladium up $44.00 at $895.00 and poised to move higher. Currencies and petroleum getting beaten down, and Gold following - Bummer!

wolavka (12/07/00; 08:19:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 43152)
corner the market
soybeans lock it limit up today.

wolavka (12/07/00; 08:09:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 43151)
floor scum
dropping it 20-50 cents then right back up, it's gonna blow.

tedw (12/07/00; 07:30:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 43150)
Inflation
http://www.usagold.com

Natural Gas up. Dollar down.


There is no inflation. There is no inflation. There is no inflation. There is no inflation. Are you hypnotized yet?

wolavka (12/07/00; 07:15:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 43149)
BEANS BEANS BEANS
Watch this today!!!!!!!!!!!

DaveC (12/07/00; 07:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 43148)
Fed to the rescue?
Hmmmm. Mortgage backs and Agencies?


Thursday December 7, 8:54 am Eastern Time
Fed adds $3.0 bln in reserves via 28-day repos
(UPDATE: Adds volume)

NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $3.0 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system via 28-day fixed system repurchase agreements.


The following collateral was accepted:
- $0.66 billion in Treasuries, stop out 6.42 percent;
- $0.90 billion in agencies, stop out 6.52 percent;

- $1.44 billion in mortgage-backed securities, stop-out 6.52 percent.

Federal funds were trading on the Fed's 6-1/2 target for the rate.



Black Blade (12/07/00; 06:54:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 43147)
Russkies Playing Games with PGMs - Again!
Source: BridgeNews
Russia Norilsk chief says 2001 PGM quota signing may be delayed

Moscow--Dec. 7--The largest Russian producer of platinum group metals Norilsk Nickel's Chairman Yury Kotlyar said on Thursday that he feared the 2001 import quotas would not be signed by the end of the year, which will
lead to a pause in supply of the metals on the world market. Norilsk, however, holds a 10-year quota for palladium and its exports will be uninterrupted.

Black Blade: No Kidding! BTW, can't interrupt something that hasn't happened.


DaveC (12/07/00; 06:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 43146)
A good fiat currency snapshot and opinion
http://www.capitalinsight.co.uk/Home/Article.asp?ArticleFile=051200swings.pdf
I read this guys work every morning. Some of it only ORO would understand.

Enjoy


DaveC (12/07/00; 06:40:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 43145)
Stocks
Motorola warns on Q4

CIEN gives out a very questionable "we made the number" except for "excluding a provision for doubtful accounts and payroll tax on stock options."

And Goldman Sachs downgrade Mr Softy.

BUY THE DIP!


Black Blade (12/07/00; 06:32:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 43144)
Pieces of the Puzzle Falling Into Place!
NG back up - $9.35 Mbtu and rising! Euro just shy of 0.90! Dollar index broke below 113! Futures recovering slightly but still solidly down - PPT has a lot of work to do before the NY open. Gold is only up +$0.30, but Pd is much higher +$17.00 at $868.00 - break to $900.00?

Excerpt from Tom Calandra's CBS Marketwatch:

The fondness for golden oldies, in my opinion, also will contribute to a rapid return to a precious metal that has not seen the light of day for more than a decade. Gold prices this week sit at $276 or so, a technical resistance level.

Larry Edelson, editor of Safe Money Report, tells me the next resistance for the metal's price is $282 or so an ounce. "Don't be surprised if it pulls back a bit, then runs," he says. A higher gold price would allow gold mining stocks such as Placer Dome Gold (PDG) build on their recent gains.

That would make the folks at LeMetropoleCafe.com, a site dedicated to gold prices and contrarian thinking, very, very happy. Here's to golden oldies.


Black Blade (12/07/00; 06:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 43143)
A Wild Ride in the Cards for Wall Street!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Something is in the works here people! Futures suddenly dived and it looks to be a sharply lower open on Wall Street. Watch out for falling brokers! I hear that the "Swan Dive" is in this month. PM's are not budging yet, but currencies are strengthening more against the USD this morning. Petroleum is moving higher, though NG has pulled back slightly, but heating oil has jumped over 2 cents a gallon. Where Al Fulchino during this petroleum crisis? Anyway, keep your eyes and ears open as today looks to be "interesting." A fitting way to observe "Pearl Harbor Day."

- Black Blade


WW Oracle (12/07/00; 05:56:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 43142)
Incredible!
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews/3689043.htm
London Interbank gold lending rates actually DROPPED today!

Can this be anything OTHER than an attempt to quash a gold rally?

Black Blade (12/7/2000; 5:28:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 43141)
Weak USD, High Energy Costs, volatile markets, etc. = Stronger PM Prices?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Currencies continue to strengthen on USD, except the Japanese peso (oops, even the peso is doing better than the yen). NG jumped a bit - now at $9.30 Mbtu. Could take out $10.00 today. California NG spot is looking to jump higher as some NW utes are talking bankruptcy due to low water levels affecting hydro-power, expired carbon credits, and high NG costs. NW suppliers may cut off California in favor of local clients. Meanwhile, NY Crude is rebounding over $30.00/bbl as reality sets in. More pieces of the puzzle fall into place for a positive picture for Gold, silver, and PGMs.

wolavka (12/7/2000; 5:01:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 43140)
gold
trend line 282 in april, take it out and we go someplace.

march beans have trend line 520 take it out and just under limit up another t.l.
Go farmboy!! city slickers suck.

wolavka (12/7/2000; 4:43:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 43139)
Better yet
My vote would be to give everyone of them a Columbian bowtie!!!

wolavka (12/7/2000; 4:37:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 43138)
Scarlet Letter
A BIG A.

A Big fat red A for attorney !!!!!!!!!!!
We should demand every scumbag attorney in the country wear the badge.

They have destroyed the constitution and our money!.







Zenidea (12/7/2000; 4:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 43137)
etc
Just from the top of anyones precious valuable head ; I respectfully seek that perhaps someone may kindly furnish me with the spot prices of Iridium & Moly per Oz to canvass please. The ol Oxy-hydrogen blowpipe may well need a servicing/come shutdown?. Lazy blighter aint I , hehe.
Seriously though such would be appreciated.
Black Blade , bring your gun , bring your home brew !, and bring your rod!. They asked me not to be humble cause I aint that good !. Wolvlaka you reckon everything is bigger in Texas. Perhaps its about time this USAGOLD family pulled
our fingers out and got togeather for a right old shin dig !
I'll pull the one and only suit I own out of the cobwebs, throw off my singlet and thongs ,have a shave even and promise not to belch, fart or snore. (smile).
Wheres the venue to be then.

Black Blade (12/7/2000; 4:09:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 43136)
GOP Request Bush Overturn Clinton E.O.'s
Reverse 8 years of dictatorial edicts?


CIA briefs Bush; GOP urges voiding Clinton orders
By Dave Boyer and Sean Scully
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

George W. Bush received his first daily national security briefing from the Clinton administration yesterday while Senate Republicans urged his running mate, Richard B. Cheney, to reverse Clinton-era executive orders. "It's going to be important to show . . . the American people that this administration will be ready to seize the moment," Mr. Bush told reporters during another busy day of transition planning in Austin. CIA official met with Mr. Bush at the governor's mansion in Texas and gave him the same intelligence briefing that Vice President Al Gore receives daily. The Bush team had sought the reports for at least two weeks, arguing that Mr. Bush needs the information to conduct a responsible transition.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, Mr. Cheney gave congressional Republicans their first taste in eight years of what it will be like to work with a Republican administration. He greeted House Republicans in the morning and ate lunch with Republican senators, who encouraged Mr. Cheney in a free-wheeling discussion to have Mr. Bush overturn a long list of executive orders signed by President Clinton. Senators declined to be specific about which executive orders they want overturned, but one Republican said they advised Mr. Cheney to be "aggressive" about overturning Clinton administration policies. Another Senate Republican said they broached the overall topic but did not get into specific policy areas with Mr. Cheney.

Republicans have long chafed at what they view as Mr. Clinton's excessive use of this executive power to circumvent Congress on a variety of issues, from protecting homosexuals from discrimination to declaring new national monument areas. "The transition is up and running and operational now, and we look forward to working with members of Congress of both parties," Mr. Cheney said after the closed House session. He pledged "a robust effort to get on with the business of dealing with the nation's problems."

Black Blade: It's a Start! Overturning Bubba's dictates that stole the western lands from the people who live and make their living off of the land would be a good beginning. I never could understand why Bubba made the Escalante Staircase area a National Monument. The area is a wasteland - no animals will even live there. There are vast low sulfur coal reserves though. The only other huge resource of equivalent coal is in Indonesia under the control of the Lippo Bank group (the same that payed bribes …….er contributed to Bubba's political campaign). Knock out the competition for a few $ million?


Black Blade (12/7/2000; 2:20:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 43135)
Kalifornian's - Just gotta laugh at these simpletons.
Source: Steven King's PetroDispatch
Why Demand Doesn't Stop

With prices for electricity in the U.S. West skyrocketing on Tuesday, sparking renewed talk that the region's power markets are broken and concern that some marketers may be on the brink of bankruptcy, the consumer was asked to cut back.The California Independent System Operator (California ISO) declared a Stage One Emergency at 5:45 a.m. More than 11,000 megawatts of generation remain off line, the majority categorized as forced outages. Included in that figure is a substantial amount of power plants production shut down because of expired air emission credits. Additionally, a sudden drop in imported power from the Northwest exacerbates the thin supply picture. The request was voluntary. However, a Stage Two was declared when reserves dropped below five percent. At this level, large commercial customers that have signed up to voluntarily curtail power during high demand days will be asked to do so. So what happened? The city of San Diego was asked not to run their Christmas lights until after 7:00 p.m. but the local news showed the traditional streets ablaze with lights starting at dusk. When the homeowners were asked about the electricity emergency, they said, "but the children". The Governor even light the state tree (admittedly only for five minutes). All in all, no one took it as more than a temporary problem. The California ISO has estimated the holiday lights in the state use around 1,000 MW of electricity. That's my contention. People will use electricity, drive to work and heat their homes almost regardless of cost and economic conditions. Prices for electricity for the rest of December at the key Northwest hub of Mid-Columbia soared as high as $1,200.00 per megawatt hour (MWh) on Tuesday, up from $500.00-$525.00 per MWh on Monday and an already steep $290.00-$305.00 on Friday. In contrast, electricity for delivery during the balance of December at some hubs in the eastern U.S. has been trading around $60.00-$70.00 per MWh, around one-twentieth of prices at Mid-Columbia but still considered high for those areas. The rise in prices came amid concern whether it will be possible to generate enough power in the U.S. West to meet demand, with loads expected to rise if forecasts of extreme cold arrives either late this week or early next week. The latest crisis has been exacerbated by a shortage of both hydropower and natural gas. Natural gas at the Southern California border traded as high as $27 per million British thermal units Tuesday, up $4.00 from Monday and more than 10 times the $2.30 price seen a year ago.

Black Blade: And the Grasshoppers danced and sang all summer……….., NG spot in S. California now sits at $37.84 Mbtu.

COMMODITY CORNER

NYMEX January Natural Gas prices, +76¢ to $7.43/Mcf, rallied on the news that below-normal temperatures are expected in the Midwest and Northeast during the next few weeks. Given tight supplies of gas this winter, traders started bidding up prices. Home heating oil, which in some cases is an alternative for gas, followed suit.

NYMEX sweet, light crude fell 80¢ to $31.22/bbl for January delivery, while the February contract stood at $30.47, down 70¢. North Sea Brent crude oil futures prices dropped in largely technically related selling below support at $31/bbl, futures tested support at $30 and broke it on aggressive selling.

Black Blade: Oil could rebound much higher. It has recovered over $30.00/bbl. Inflation cometh!



Black Blade (12/7/2000; 1:44:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 43134)
RE: SHIFTY
1 Snow goose, and 3 mallards. A nice goose with cherry sauce for Xmass dinner. As far as the people in the "Peoples Republik of Kalifornia" are concerned, gold bullion and NG stock would probably be a good idea. They have to pay a lot for energy because they were so stupid as to not prepare in a perfect example of Aesop's "the Ant and the Grasshopper" fable. Now they must pay the price. Environmentalism is nice when it is fashionable, but it sure is expensive. Now there is the "wailing and gnashing of teeth" over high energy costs. They did not want the big bad nuclear power, they did not want NG, oil, or coal power plants in their backyard, they want to "save the fish" from hydro-electric power, windmills "slice and dice" birds, solar collectors take up open space and "offend the eyes", etc. So now, all I can say is "reap what you sow." I mentioned to Topaz that I nabbed some PAL shares when they became available - maybe the Kaliforians will push hard for fuel-cell tech., then again that's big bad mining. BTW, I also nabbed some more HGMCY a couple of weeks ago at $3.75, and today - unbelievable. Now if only gold can push it past $320 by years end. Hey - I can can dream can't I?

SHIFTY (12/7/2000; 1:27:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 43133)
Dollar down to 112.86
http://www.crbindex.com/
Dollar Index (NYBOT) Dec00 Future 112.86 -0.40 113.26

Time to saw wood.

zzzzzzzzz

$hifty

SHIFTY (12/7/2000; 1:04:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 43132)
Black Blade
S. California NG spot at $37.84 Mbtu!
What do they pay for GOLD!
LOL

$hifty

PS: How did your duck hunt go?

Black Blade (12/7/2000; 0:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 43131)
S. California NG spot at $37.84 Mbtu!
http://www.piwpubs.com/gasprice.shtml
Southern Californian spot NG is at $37.84 Mbtu - an all time high! Looks like S. Cal. businesses will definitely feel the pinch, and consider shutdowns or pass the price along to customers. Other prices look interesting as well. Check out the link.

Black Blade (12/7/2000; 0:08:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 43130)
NG and rumors heard today; and RE: tedw, and Zenidea
NG now sits at $9.12 Mbtu. I had thought that $8.00 Mbtu by years end was a likely target, but now it looks as if it could go much higher as we go into the first quarter. The clock gets reset on carbon credits (pollution credits) as we go into the new year, however, demand continues to rise and virtually all new power generation is from NG-fired power. GE has a backlog for 3 years on gas-fired turbines, and that is increasing as the need for more power is apparent. There was a 300%+ increase in volume on Durban shares today on little news other than the nice pop in gold prices. There has been a moderate increase in other gold and silver mining shares over this last week. One has to wonder if the institutional investors know something and that this is a precursor of a higher gold price or a year-end readjustment of investment portfolios. Hopefully both. Also there appears to be some talk in the investment community about "bogus" government inflation data – will wonders never cease. Apparently some influential people are beginning to question the validity of the BLS data and the statistical methodology in the calculation of CPI and PPI. Hope that this gains steam as most of us here and elsewhere know that the use of "hedonic pricing", "seasonality", and "core-rate" filters are fundamentally flawed as measures of inflation.

Tedw: I have both Stillwater (SWC) and North American Palladium (PAL) shares. SWC is still plagued with inept management, but with the new floor price hedges and minimal hedging in place, they should gain regardless. PAL just recently became listed on the Amex, so I acquired a few hundred shares. I was not too optimistic about PAL as I understood that they had very little left in reserves. Well, times change and increasing Pd and Pt prices have helped with a 3.8 million ounce reserve base, and 1.1 million ounce resource. Not bad, but still a bit risky. I also continue buying Pt maples and Koalas when I can. On a side note, the new design on the US Pt eagle looks nice – it is supposed to have a reverse with an eagle soaring over a desert scene with a suaro cactus in the foreground. I'm sure that MK and the castle guard can get the physical if you wish. Take care – Cheers!

Zenidea: G'day mate, I heard about an Aussie Pt operation, but I cannot remember who is involved. If I remember or come across the info. I'll pass it along. BTW, with all the birds you got, I should pay a visit with my Browning 10 Ga. – (just kidding).




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