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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/6/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Chris Powell (5/6/02; 22:17:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 75063) More indications that Barrick is frantic to cover http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1097 More indications that Barrick is frantic to coverits shorts through combination with AngloGoldand Gold Fields:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1097To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (5/6/02; 22:14:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75062) POG + 30 is what we might see. From the increasing magnitude of each 4 month POG price breakout, we are scheduled for a $30 spike with a fallback of only $5. Whatever price it bases at for now is what I'm adding that $30 to. Charts are the sum collective of all the traders in the world. Their footprints are in the cadence of history across the gold dust sprinkled trail. "Paper-man where art thou? Who told you that paper was money? Did you go to the banker and eat from the tree it was known that you shouldn't eat from? The tree of usury and unjust gain?" Black Blade (5/6/02; 22:08:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 75061) Hole in Ohio reactor vessel, cracks in South Carolina plant raise biggest nuclear safety questions since TMI http://www.boston.com/dailynews/126/region/Hole_in_Ohio_reactor_vessel_cr:.shtml Snippit:WASHINGTON (AP) A nuclear reactor in Ohio is found to have a large hole nobody thought possible, burned almost through its six-inch protective steel cover. Cracks of a type never seen before are discovered at a reactor in South Carolina, triggering widespread inspections. Both events caught industry leaders and government regulators by surprise, and they are fueling new questions about aging nuclear power plants and plant inspection programs. Black Blade: More problems found in the nation's nukes. When boric acid corrosion was found at the Davis Besse reactor in Ohio, the NRC demanded that all 68 other nukes of similar design be inspected. Now another near miss has been found. More inspections are likely and the resulting shutdowns will likely result in increased draw-down of the NG supply. Canuck (5/6/02; 21:27:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 75060) @ Pizz, All For some reason I've been tuning in on 'the inside information' scoop for the last year or so.I didn't see the SM sell off but if my (inside) guess is correct I wouldn't be surprised with an increase tomorrow.Was the sell-off abrupt/intense this afternoon? On the other hand, gold powering ahead flys in the face of this guesstimation.We shall see soon enough. Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (5/6/02; 21:15:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75059) Are the Kangeroos Hopping in Sydney? Somebody actually started buying gold down under. Kicking kiwi koalas batman. No more selling on the Isles of Perth. Yes, mates we'd might better cover our hedgebooks before we get covered up 6 foot under down under right. sector (5/6/02; 21:13:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75058) @CavenMan...The Fed's New Gold Buying Adversary We don't have names but we know addresses.We don't know them all but we know enough.One gains perepective on who is buying now by observing who bought in Feb. but is quiet now.It isn't the arabs but they count.In the end... they will win...big. It's the patience thing. Gandalf the White (5/6/02; 20:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 75057) The Hobbits are CELEBRATING breaking through $313. NEXT hesitation stop is $325.<;-) Black Blade (5/6/02; 20:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 75056) Pizz – Solar Power Packs I am afraid that I do not have much experience here. However, I have a friend who has a solar powered and "crank up" radio (Kaito Solar AM/FM/Shortwave Radio) that seems to work well without batteries (it will also operate on batteries). The crank charges the radio for a time as the slow unwinding action generates electricity. I understand that each full cycle lasts at least an hour. There are also lamps that operate the same way such as the Solar Dynamo Rechargeable Lantern (solar powered lantern does sound a bit redundant doesn't it?). There are even solar-powered battery chargers available. There are several brands of these kinds of items available. You could do an internet search under "emergency radio" or "earthquake preparation" or something similar – you should be able to find something similar. I just have the usual Coleman lantern, oil lamp, candles, flint and steel and battery operated gadgets, however, these other "emergency" items should work out well and that they can work without batteries is a plus. Fortunately I have a hideaway in the mountains where I could live a more "primitive" life if necessary. However, I am used to that kind of life due to work and up-bringing whereas someone with a family to look after would perhaps like something much more convenient. I don't think that you could go wrong by preparing for any emergency and these items are a good start.Cheers!- Black Blade Pizz (5/6/02; 20:51:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 75055) @Mikal I really don't have an answer (rate hike may work) to my own statement on just what the PTB are going to say when all their bullish BS comes home to roost, but I do feel someone or something will have to be "tossed under the bus". (That's car biz lingo for blaming everyone but yourself.)I'm expecting the government to start hedging their 'bets' a bit. Going to be one heck of an off major election this year, mud throwing by the supertanker load.Thanks for the feedback.Pizz YGM (5/6/02; 20:46:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 75054) V.A.T. Being lifted from Gold in Korea? Possibly June. http://www.platts.com/stories/pr1.html One more Asian country will be buying more Gold...OK! Pizz (5/6/02; 20:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75053) R Powell - Silver Sinking? Hang in there buddy. You've got the leveraged play of the decade, assuming we're right on gold. It will just take a bit longer.Every time you get nervous about silver, just imagine gold at a paultry 1500 to 3000 bucks an ounce and the banks in deep ______. Is gold going to be money? No - wealth. It will be too expensive to buy or trade by the masses.If (When?) TSHTF, and I think it's going to, silver will be the alternative medium of the masses, in the hundreds of dollars an ounce with a lot of junk silver and old coins for trading and small purchases if it comes to that.Personally, if it gets real bad (let's hope not), I'll take a hack saw to a 10 oz bar of silver for a small purchase. Chop up a maple - I don't think so, cause my gold will be buried so deep . . . waiting for the dust to settle.General Public is virtually ignorant of what is going on and transpiring. It'l take another crisis or two and some time, but its coming.Pizz YGM (5/6/02; 20:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75052) New Use For GOLD & SILVER...... http://www.standardbank.com/PreciousMetals/home.asp?lid=1&sgid=3 Japans Sumitomo Metal Mining Develops Special Conductive Film..May 2/02.........Scroll @ Link......Conductive film for Cathode Raytube CRT Monitors using Silver & Gold......**Excuse me if someone already posted this. I just found it surfing around Bank news sites.....YGM.BTW...Anglo-American getting into Copper??? Didn't read this piece yet... Pizz (5/6/02; 20:18:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75051) Black Blade Would it be too much to ask if you have any experience or recomendations on some of the solar battery chargers, radios, flashlights, and lanterns available?Not too many manufactures that I can find on the net, and the prices just don't seem to be high enough for me to be comfortable that I'm not buying junk - stange way to look at it (and if I ever do get ripped ordering on the net, it will probably be a doozy), but competition in that market seem a bit slim.(Thanks also for all the energy posts. I don't have the time to be as informed as you make me, and it is appreciated.)Pizz Cavan Man (5/6/02; 20:09:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 75050) da2g Alithos aneste! Pizz (5/6/02; 20:06:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 75049) @sector - more musings on a rate hike Appreciate your response and I agree with your statements.My concern is more abstract (for lack of a better term due to my limited diction) and more directed towards the $ and our debt - a much bigger problem than gold derivitives, which are, IMHO, still a major problem.The dollar drop has the potential to take Japan down for the count, banks first. Japan hasn't much incentive to keep holding our debt, dollar or bonds. Major problem. If our bonds drop, the housing market starts to implode with higher long term rates. If the dollar continues to drop, inflation goes up with the same effect.A quarter point rise firms up the dollar and debt. It also will nearly completely remove the limited inflation fears and have very little efect on long term rates. It would also, IMO, send gold back down to the bottom end of the trading range (295 - 300).Slam corporate American and the Stock Market. You bet, but their going down anyway. Why not get some mileage out of it? Most analyst I'm listening to are looking for the washout of the markets before they start committing new funds.Corporate earnings are already going down, and O'Neil's already basically said "tough".Greenspan is also into tweeking. We're too close to November elections to have any type of dollar crisis get worse. Democrats will want tax relief repealed or raise taxes, Bush & O'Neil won't go that route.Proverbial "Catch 22".Odds say your right on the "do nothing" senario, but I also hedge against the "blindsides". Greenie cost me a bunch once in my trading days and if anything, he has his own agenda and he happens to be O'Neils spear-chucker.Interesting times and thanks again for the feedback.Pizz da2g (5/6/02; 20:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 75048) Cavan Man- Belated Easter Greetings Christos Voskres!Sorry I missed your greeting yesterday. slingshot (5/6/02; 20:02:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 75047) Gold $313.30 ****************************** Car 54 Where are you?Wake up Joe, (Joe Sixpack) Their calling us.Slingshot----------------------<> Cavan Man (5/6/02; 20:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 75046) sector Who is this new adversary? Sorry to say I am not a cafe member. mikal (5/6/02; 20:01:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 75045) @GR2- Nice dove art "A dove got caught in the rafters last night. I had quite a time trying to get her out. She hit her head several times in panic. Only when she was stunned was I able to care for her.... in this world, the pursuit of love and compassion is not without pain and confusion." -Deng Ming-Dao, 365 TAO Black Blade (5/6/02; 19:56:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 75044) After Hours There is a bit of interesting action perking up in after hours trading. Notice that Gold is up about $2.00/oz. and the USD Index is in retreat again (soon below 112?). After such a dismal day in NY, it is no wonder that foriegn investors are ready to bail. - Black Blade mikal (5/6/02; 19:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 75043) @Siochain WELCOME Back Lady. Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (5/6/02; 19:14:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75042) (No Subject) http://www.talia.ch/works.html Here it is. sector (5/6/02; 19:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 75041) FOMC Rate Increase? @piz...It's not in the cards kind Sir. Why?For each 1% increase in Fed Funds there is a 35% increase in US corporate interest costs.To suffer an interest rate hike just now would surely smash the SM. Corporate leaders are desperate for any bottom line juice, never mind the widespread accusations of fraudulent accounting with which they now must constantly deal.No, Mr. "Can't Make a Decision" Greenspan will default to his dominant personality trait...ignoring the approaching freight train.The gold fraud cabal faces, as GATA's Bill Murphy says, a new adversary. A foe of unknown strength and unmeasured tenacity…an enemy that has special intelligence regarding the plans and backing of the Fed and Treasury…An enemy that has organized and is lean for a protracted fight. This isn't some rogue hedge fund or eccentric billionaire or some trendy boutique group. These people are hardened, fearless shock troups that know the Fed's gold defenses are as vulnerable as the Maginot Line. They are determined.Even if the Fed raises interest rates soon, and the dollar stops swooning, it won't matter to this new Fed enemy because they understand the physical mechanics of the years-long gold suppression and have moved to exploit the Fed weakness. The dollar isn't the gold-link it used to be. "It's the physical...stupid" is their silent war cry. The Fed has sold all it can sell comfortably. The Fed acolytes are on the financial ropes with their gold derivatives [JPM, CitiBank have dumped tens of billions in gold derivatives of late and they still have many tens of billions to go].The mighty Fed...in a fight for its life.Make no mistake. If they fail to cap gold in the coming months they fail as an institution. For as surely as the Enron, JPM and Mahonia offshore scandals followed the Moody's downgrade of Enron, there will be a gold scandal. It will be necessary to explain $400 [Much higher likely] plus gold prices. The stories will emanate from the NON-financial press. A flood of questions will follow.The perpetrator will be revealed to be the Federal Reserve. They sold our gold to create bubbles. They roped into the scam the British in too. The Germans will roll as Deutsche Bank coughs up its golden hairball as well.At the end, the Fed will be "…lying in a burned-out-basement…" as Neill Young so aptly said in… "After the Gold Rush. Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (5/6/02; 19:10:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 75040) Mikal www.talia.ch/works.html If the FED raises interest rates it's a notice to the world that they don't care about the "recovery". They have to keep interest rates low and let the dollar come down slowly. To throw out whatever recovery is happening by raising rates would damage the "We're OK and you're going to be OK" image. Perception becomes reality when there are more variables than constants in the equation. They have to decide who they don't mind stealing from more........the foreignors holding bonds who can't vote or the general population that needs its jobs. Americans would rather have a weak dollar than no dollar at all. Bring on inflation, half the people you talk to all think a little inflation is good. It's the pain tolerance level of the foreign bond holders that the FED will test. When the Sheiks and the Kings of the East (Asia) start complaining then the FED will raise rates and not until.The geldshares are getting tight. For every seller there are 1.3 buyers and the shorts are going to be panicing every morning. They are trying hard to knock them down but there are a million "snapper blues" nipping at the bait. No matter what we do, there is more bad news coming out keeping fear alive and well. What is blowing people's minds is the way the POG won't fall back. Their shorting efforts are like throwing water on a dry sponge. One of the "true barometer issues" CEF is running up and all it has is metal in its vault. So we see more lemmings would rather trust those accountants than own the metal themselves. Some day "point click buy is going to turn into, point click "How come I can't access my broker" Oh yes, it's because they make you broker. So I'm saying that symbol is a good overlay to the POG to test for bullish sentiment. The divergence would show that one is going to catch up to the other. The point at which money runs hard into the metal vs the shares is still in flux. No one has to buy the shares it's just too easy. I'm sure glad the mining executives are so much more noble and honest than the folks at Enron. It's amazing how all the saints decided the run goldmining companies. Yeah I'm OK and you're OK. (So far today. If you aren't on the lookout for large block order sales and sly dilution attempts, then yer a sleepin too much and awake not enough. I took the "Land-O-Lakes" butter label to my scanner and for my wallpaper I've got the little indian maiden holding out her bar of gold. A tribute to all the Tokyo-mamas buying gold up making it all happen. ----------------------------------------------------------When you need peace and quiet just watch the bird. Found it on a recient web expedition. Black Blade (5/6/02; 19:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 75039) Argentina inflation soars http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1970000/1970198.stm Argentine prices have risen 20% so far this year following the devaluation of the country's currency the peso, officials have said. Snippit:The prices of fresh eggs and vegetable oils, as well as the prices of computers and televisions, have risen between 100% and 200%, according to a survey by the Argentine business chamber CAME. The sharpest price increases were seen in April, raising fears that there could be worse to come. "On Monday the official inflation rate [for April] will be announced, and it will be around 10% [for that month alone]," said cabinet chief Alfredo Atanasof in interviews on Sunday. Black Blade: Argentina has seen several "food riots". This "Soylent Green" scenario will play out over and over. "Interesting Times" mikal (5/6/02; 18:40:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75038) @Pizz Re: Your reason #2 for hiking Fed Funds Rate. It seems we will get a repeat of 1929 and 1932 where blame was diverted, like the majority do today. They still haven't learned either. So, what reason will we get for the nasty downturn, besides 9-11? Greenspan? Bush? I hope Christian's terrorist suggestion was wrong. I wish it were a UFO announcement or a Second Coming, but I don't think so. Then what will it be? There is only one way to find out. ; ) CALL To Contest! R Powell (5/6/02; 18:37:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 75037) Pizz That "feeling that something is not quite right" must be contagious but with me it refers to silver. I sense weakness and hope silver's good friend gold can help by setting the pace. Gold seems to have great support. David Morgan recently said that silver's upside moves seem supported by silver as a monetary metal while the downside moves appear as silver trading as an industrial metal. If POG can lend some support now, I believe silver will return the favor later. Perhaps soon the Greenman will face that awful decision of having to raise rates to save the dollar knowing that this may tank the debt ridden economy. Or, will he leave the dollar to sink or swim without intervention (rate hikes) protecting the equities? Does POG care either way? Probably not, it's either up or up at a faster pace. Close your eyes now and repeat three times, "Silver is money too! Silver is money too! Silver is money too!" Rich mikal (5/6/02; 18:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 75036) @Pizz Those ARE two very good reasons why the FED may raise interest rates tomorrow or at ANY time they see the need. Imagine what would happen to the dollar. If higher rates undermine foreign and domestic confidence in low inflation or quick recovery. If corporate cash flow, earnings, & profits suffer from higher debt payments. If stock prices and credit ratings suffer. If consumer and corporate borrowing and spending suffers. MarkeTalk (5/6/02; 18:12:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 75035) Cavan Man, IRS reporting rules on K-rands & Maple Leafs I have read your post in response to my post, as you invited me to comment. I have to disagree with your analysis concerning the reason why the Treasury Department introduced dealer-reporting requirements in 1984. Firstly, the IRS missed out on billions of tax dollars after a spectacular run in gold and silver to heights never seen before. Investors cleaned up in the bullion market and many did not pay any taxes at all. Secondly, these new rules were drafted and timed to go into effect as the gold market was surging again towards $500 from its lows of $282 in August 1982. Spot gold hit $500 on a couple of occasions between 1983 and 1987, the last being in December 1987. Go back and check the charts. I know this information like the back of my hand because I was working for another precious metals company at the time. Every swing up and down would invite investors to sell back to dealers and the investors would pocket the profits. But with new dealer-reporting requirements in place, there was no way to escape the tax man.Thirdly, the new US Eagle gold coin was not introduced until 1986, two years after the 1984 rules went into effect. It can be argued that one of the reasons for the new US Eagle was to tap into the growing interest in gold coins and to take profits away from Canada and South Africa. But why did the IRS fail to place the US Eagle on the list of reportable transactions by dealers? Could it be the same reason why the IRS failed to place the Austrian Philharmonic, Chinese Panda and Australian Nugget/Kangaroo on the same list? I believe so and that the reason was inertia on the part of the IRS. In other words, the IRS simply overlooked these others coins. But with the new proposed regulations due out in the next 60 to 90 days, I believe those "loopholes" will be a thing of the past.As far as your comment goes regarding the sale of 20 Maple Leaf gold coins without any dealer reporting, that is true unless you sell back 20 coins every week or every month in an attempt to circumvent the intent of the law. The IRS advised all of the dealers many years ago and warned us against so-called "structured transactions" which evade the strict reading of the law but not its intent. In fact, I received a phone call recently from a client who had done business with a competitor who was the object of a government sting operation. Government agents set up cash purchases of less than $10,000 each time (in compliance with a strict reading of the law) but they visited the gold dealer several times over the course of six months. The coin dealer failed to fill out the required currency transaction reports (for cash deals over $10,000) and he was found to be in violation of the IRS regulation. The feds seized all of his inventory and bank account and he was out of business left to fend for himself on the street corner. This is one of the reasons why Centennial made the decision many years ago to avoid cash deals altogether.GC nickel62 (5/6/02; 17:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 75034) Kaplan, I couldn't believe that post???????? Is that the same guy who gets qouted on Kitco all the time? A little help here I have heard the name but never knew who he was. Thanks before hand. Pizz (5/6/02; 17:44:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 75033) Markets Anyone else getting the feeling that SOMETHING is just not quite right.Technically gold is right up against a trendline. A couple gold stock I follow are right at new high's or slightly below, and the SM sold off last hour and aftermarket gold moving up befor Sidney. Feels like a breakup for gold and down for markets.Now, FED meets tomorrow, after a week+ of crashing dollar and the quarterly refunding later this week.I'm just trying to figure who's going to come to the auction at these prices with what appears to be a growing perception that capital may be starting to move away from US.I can think of two reasons why Greenspan might be strongly considering raising rates tomorrow. (1)It'll drop treasuries and therefore give a bit of a boost to the treasury bill auction, and (2)has anyone figured out who the PTB is going to blame for the recovery that never was?? Raising interest rates would sufffice as the macro economic numbers continue to deteriorate. Some reason is going to have to be given sooner or later. Maybe Greenie will walk the plank for the admin on this one. Or maybe (if rates do go up) he'll just blame all the positive govmt stats.Just musing, but again, something doesn't feel quite right.Siochain: Thanks for the Kaplan laugh. Any of his customers stupid enough to by that line of BS should sell.Physical may jst be getting a bit harder to find (smile).Pizz Siochain (5/6/02; 17:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 75032) GATA...LIPS...And GOLD http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=198811&cftoken=78787506&pid=2193 Part:"Ferdi Lips Spotted The Gold Rig That Is Coming To An End Six Years AgoWith both London and Japan closed, the gold trading was very subdued in the U.S.The Comex open interest continues to explode as it rose 4,958 contracts to 189,735 contracts on Friday. The bullion dealers, or uniformed gold commentators, will say that is bearish as the specs keep piling in. I say the opposite. We are coming closer and closer to that commercial signal failure. That is when the commercials are buried by the specs and it gives force to the grandest commodity moves of all. That was the case in 1993 when gold exploded higher and in late 1996/1997 when gold collapsed.Another bullish gold technical indicator from a Café member:Bill:Again, two very reliable indicators, the put-call ratios in both the gold futures and the XAU continue to be unbelievably subdued. I think that on only one day last week did the XAU have more calls than puts. At trading tops you can look for ratios of around 10:1. The Hulbert article is also most revealing. Chuck CFrom http://www.business.scotsman.com:By Ian WilliamsTHE price of gold rose last week to $309 an ounce - and at one point was $312, its highest for two years, a period during which the FTSE gold mines index gained 55%. This highlights the counter-cyclical nature of gold relative to bonds and equities. A multitude of factors - technical, fundamental and cyclical - are responsible. But one thing seems certain: the price can go considerably higher, outperforming even the previous peak of $850 an ounce in January 1980. Analysis points to a multi-year bull market developing for both gold and gold stocks, supported by such diverse factors as a 900% increase in Japanese gold imports this year, China's desire to increase the percentage of its reserves held in gold and changes in forward selling by major gold-mining companies. China's central bank is the most interesting example. China has foreign exchange reserves of $700bn, of which about 2% is in gold. Last year, the Chinese declared their intention to increase this to between 10% and 15% of total reserves but were "persuaded" by the Americans to keep their reserves in dollars and treasury bills in return for American support for China's application to join the World Trade Organisation. Now that China is a member, it can change its reserve mix to whatever it wants. Siochain...that last paragraph is interesting,,,wouldn't you say....the rest of the article gives a good summary of what has been going on behind the scenes and GATA's learning & leading Graefin (5/6/02; 17:21:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 75031) R Powell DownUnder should start at 6pmEST, dunno about Hong Kong.- Gräfin R Powell (5/6/02; 17:13:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 75030) Gold and silver trading Thebulliondesk site has gold up 1.90 and silver up .03. I've heard that gold starts trading again at 4:00 EST after the stocks close and a few hours after Comex close. Where this happens is a mystery unless it's electronic trading?? I believe downunder trading starts at 6:00 EST and Hong Kong starts at 9:00. Anyone know for sure? Rich Siochain (5/6/02; 17:00:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 75029) @ Robot Guy I thought someone had mentioned that these late blips were related to trading still open in Mexico...not sure but a possibility Siochain (5/6/02; 16:55:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 75028) Give up your gold (No Way!!) http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/kaplan05_06_02.html Interesting....another wants you to turn your gold in....for your best interests, of course!!!!"As the stock markets continues its ominous declines (The S&P's made 6 month lows last week), as the USD continues its precipitous decline (the Euro made a 7 month high on Friday), the gold market is seeing investor interest ramp up to levels not seen in 20 years. While the tragic events of September 11th, and other terrorist actions, have prompted the purchase of gold by those seeking a "safe haven" in a increasingly frightening world, those levels of demand are nowhere near the quantity nor the consistency of interest presently seen. The purchases of gold due to sudden fears by the market tend to be fleeting in nature, but such demand, when fueled by economic reversals is of much greater consequence.There has also a "sea change" in the nature of such investment demand. Previously, buyers of gold participated in the "physical" markets, buying bars or coins. Now, recent buyers of gold are demanding "paper" gold through the derivatives, futures, or options markets. They want the leverage and the safety and security of dealing in a completely regulated environment. This trend can be summarily proven by looking at the volume of business recorded by the LBMA vs. that which occurs on the regulated futures markets in New York. Trading volumes in London, the largest "physical" gold market in the world, continue to post lower results, while open interest in New York continues to rise to recent record levels.We are also seeing that the old-time investors in gold are actually selling into this rally, and not much physical buying is occurring. When investor interest in physical gold is high, premiums on gold coins rise. Even as gold continues to make 2-year highs, premiums on gold coins such as US Eagles remain quite low and well below replacement costs at the US Mint. Perhaps even a better example is the sad case of US $20 Liberty Head gold coins in XF/AU condition (slightly circulated). These numismatic coins, which were minted from the 1850's to 1907 (now almost at least 100 years old), are trading in the market for just $15 to $25 USD (each coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold) above their precious metal melt content, probably as low a premium as has been seen since the 1970's. This fact would certainly infer that "old-time" investors are selling as new investors are buying. But the new investors are seeking investment venues with greater transparency, greater leverage, and greater security, and are shunning the old investment vehicles such as coins.I would expect that this trend will continue, to the financial detriment of those owners of physical gold coins and bars. I urge readers of this commentary, who hold physical coins, to call our offices (afternoons are best) for a discussion of possible strategies to avoid further losses. Historically, on many sharp gold rallies, such coins have traded at or below spot, and if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. "Siochain...If holding real gold is such a "bad investment"...wonder why they want to take it off your hands...hmmmmnNow our cry must be to not only get gold...but hold it...tightly!!! Solomon Weaver (5/6/02; 16:52:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 75027) 50 day moving average of Gold spot hit $300 today http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d12 * Graefin (5/6/02; 16:51:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75026) hmmmmm...gold shorts... I wonder if they would go well with my turquoise socks! Siochain (5/6/02; 16:34:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 75025) Lots of Gold Shorts From the Daily Reckoning:(Partial_"- But even though things are looking a little rough for the economy at the moment, a short-term stock market rally would not be a total surprise. That's because many of the short-term sentiment indicators like the "Bullish Consensus" and the "MarketVane" are registering fairly extreme bearish readings, which, from a contrarian standpoint, is bullish.- The opposite phenomenon is occurring in the gold market. Suddenly, everyone seems to be bullish on gold. That's quite a change for the "yellow dog." Over the course of two superb decades for stocks, most investors learned to hate gold, or at least to ignore it. But now that stocks are flirting with three straight losing years in a row - for the first time since the Great Depression - gold doesn't seem so repugnant anymore. In fact, it is becoming dangerously close to being popular!- Most of the short-term sentiment indicators on gold are very bullish, which therefore is bearish. Furthermore, the commercial traders (considered the "smart money"), tracked by the weekly commitment of traders report, have amassed their largest short position in gold in more than six years.- Such extreme Commitment of Traders readings are certainly not foolproof indicators of market direction, but they do suggest that the metal is close to a near-term top. As for the long-term, who knows? But gold probably deserves the benefit of the doubt, given the precarious state of the U.S. dollar.- The U.S. current account deficit is running close to 5% of GDP. In other words, we borrow more than $1 billion a day from foreigners just to keep the lights turned on at America, Inc.- This massive current account deficit will not be a problem, the experts assure us, so long as foreigners continue to invest in the U.S. But the dollars' recent weakness suggests that some foreigners, at least, are withdrawing from the U.S. already.- "The most interesting development of late in global markets has not been the renewed weakness on Wall Street but the wobbles in the U.S. dollar," says Christopher Wood of breakingviews.com. "The intellectual rationale for pouring money into America in recent years, namely superior investment returns, has now been proven false given that this is the third year running that the U.S. stock market has so far failed to deliver positive returns." - Wood continues: "The Economist proclaims in its latest issue that the American current account deficit is 'an accident waiting to happen.' This may not be a particularly original statement. But, however seemingly banal, it happens to be true..."*** While nearly everyone waits for the resumption of the bull market in stocks, most people expect the rally in gold to end any minute. "Equities always reward patient, long-term investors," say Rukeyser's elves and other mythmakers. "Gold, on the other hand, always disappoints," they say. Gold timers were 90% bullish in February. But now that the metal is $10 higher, only 37.5% of their money is in gold; the rest of it is in cash.*** "This is a textbook case of what is often seen at the beginning of sustainable rallies," explains my old friend, Mark Hulbert. "As contrarians constantly remind us, bull markets don't like company; they thrive when relatively few advisers and investors have jumped on their bandwagon. This is why contrarians were not particularly surprised that gold's rally stalled in mid-February...Today, in contrast, gold at $310 per ounce has fewer cheerleaders than it did three months ago when gold was trading at a lower price."*** Gold up...dollar down. You might want to get used to the sound of that...it might be in the news for a long time. Last week, the dollar had its "biggest drop since January," according to the Bloomberg report. Since the end of March, the greenback index is down 4.3%. Friday's trading left the euro up 142 points - to 91.52 cents. The smart money is leaving the dollar and moving to gold.: Graefin (5/6/02; 16:25:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 75024) Riding the Golden Bull http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?PfvID=2179 Hey guys...ah, girls too...the hubby found an excellent read...deals with the current gold market and recent market history. Here are some snips:By Derek K. Van ArtsdalenSnippet 1: "The question got me thinking, though, about what we gold and silver bugs might expect when the next true gold bull market begins. How high is high? For that matter, how do we know for certain when the bull's run has actually begun? And, finally, what signs do we look for to clue us in on when the bull has ultimately run its course?"Snippet 2: "Of Tulips and TechnologyTo begin with, how do we know when a gold bull market has actually started? In answering that question, it's important to make a crucial point and one which all precious metals investors should understand clearly: bull markets always begin for a reason (or, more likely, for several reasons). In other words, a commodity doesn't increase drastically in price just because it appears to be undervalued. Or because it holds sentimental value (think of the poor fellow who purchased gold at $400 per ounce in the late ‘80s or early ‘90s, only to watch it languish for the next decade or more!). And it certainly doesn't rise just because it appears inexpensive relative to its chart history.No, my friends, gold will never rise merely because a group of diehard investors wants it to rise. It will rise in value, as all other commodities from T-Bills to tulips, from pork bellies to belly dancers, from bonds to Buicks, for one reason and one reason alone: perceived demand begins to exceed perceived supply. Until that happens, expect the price of gold to remain relatively stable and range-bound.Why do I use the word "perceived"? Because it is the average investor's perception that motivates him to invest (or dis-invest). When the Dutch tulip mania was unfolding, there was never an actual shortage of tulips -- only a perceived shortage. The average investor, not understanding the situation, concluded that there just weren't enough doggoned tulips in the world, and he began paying outrageous sums of money for them. As with all manias, reality ultimately asserted itself and proved, after all, that tulips were in quite plentiful supply relative to actual demand, and the price came plummeting back to levels which few investors imagined they would ever again witness only weeks prior to the inevitable crash. (The old saying is that trees don't grow to the sky. Evidently, this is equally true for tulips.)We need look back no farther than 1999 and early 2000 to see a modern example of a classic mania: the now-infamous NASDAQ "bubble." Here was a situation where the perceived need far exceeded the perceived supply. To use just one example, investors (be honest now: were you one of them!?) were crawling over each other to buy up all the telecom and fiber optic companies they could identify, because everyone "knew" that there just wasn't enough fiber in the ground. We all know now, of course, that the actual supply/demand fundamentals were a far different story. But we didn't realize how overbought this and other tech sectors had become (unless we were members of LeMetropoleCafe!) until hundreds of billions of investor dollars had been squandered forever on various telecom, biotech and other technology-related "investments." So what do the prices of tulips and tech stocks have to do with the present-day gold situation? Just this: as the GATA camp has been shouting from the treetops for years now, the artificial price manipulations of the gold and silver markets have given investors the perception that gold and silver supplies far exceed gold and silver demand – the exact reverse of the situation which develops in a mania. The reality is, both gold and silver usage are increasing annually while supplies are actually declining! "Holy Conspiracy, Batman! The Joker is secretly confiscating their wealth while the citizens of Gotham dance in the streets!" And before you know it, investors around the world, believing they were investing in a legitimate free market, were WHAMMed, BAMMed and KA-POWed out of their hard-earned dollars, rubles, pesos, francs and rupees."Snippet 3: "Which leads me back to my original point: what are the characteristics of an emerging – and a dying – bull market in gold, and how do we make a buck or two from the historical lessons?First, if we look back at the most famous gold bull in modern history from August 1979 to September 1980, we find that its foundation was being laid far earlier, beginning about mid-1977. To re-emphasize, bull markets happen for specific reasons, and the reasons back then were legion: economic imbalances, high unemployment, high interest rates, large trade deficits, etc. Other than the high interest rates, do any of these things ring a bell today?"Okay...enough snips...go click on the link and enjoy your read! Peace!- Gräfin TownCrier (5/6/02; 15:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 75023) Another end-of-day snapshot...very similar to that provided last Monday http://www.usagold.com/mkpics/forum/ino06may02.gif stocks downbonds downdollar downcommodity index downgold UPTwo Monday's in a row.Contrary to popular belief, gold is not *necessarily* tightly correlated -- positively or negatively -- with the various markets in stocks, dollars, or commodities as a group. Thanks to the particulars of its market's means for price discovery, gold has tremendous potential for independent movement upward regardless of all other market performance -- assuming the physical trade succeeds in shattering the prevailing paper illusion. A "one-time adjustment" is called for. Without it, gold remains a very safe and stable insurance policy. With it, gold becomes the investment permormer of a lifetime. You can't really lose, whatever the outcome. So, the question goes, are you in?R. Black Blade (5/6/02; 15:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75022) Lower USD, Higher Gold, and Wall Street The USD should continue to drop overnight as the foreign investor is not interested in USD denominated investments anymore. The recent market action, lack of corporate earnings and the prospect of FED inaction tomorrow may mean that dollars will leave US shores. Also, Moody's has announced that any legal action against Wall Street firms and bankers "will" result in credit rating downgrades. This is not a pretty picture for Wall Street. The result is that investors just might seek out safe havens – like Gold – until all this blows over. IMO it cannot "blow over" until all the excesses are squeezed out of the markets. Hold on to your pants because it's going to get mighty rough!- Black Blade jayzee (5/6/02; 15:05:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75021) Dow loses after PM market closes I have noticed that on down days for the Dow, the PPT keeps the loss small until the PM market closes, then it lets it freefall!I believe that they are trying to prevent investors from going from stocks to precious metals in a panic. Black Blade (5/6/02; 14:48:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 75020) Wall Street Workers Face Worst Market In 40 Years http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNYsZRVoV2FsbCBT Snippit:Securities firms have cut 40,000 jobs in the past year, forcing many traders, bankers and analysts into unemployment in the worst Wall Street job market in 25 years. With few job prospects, some are struggling to stir up fresh leads, while others, lucky to have severance pay or low living expenses, are pursuing long-ignored dreams and passions. ``The music has completely stopped in some parts of the industry,'' said Larry Post, founder and chief executive of Streetjobs.com, a Web site for trading, banking and other security firm positions. ``Wall Street over-hires and over-fires. Right now, we're in over-fire mode.'' Of the 40,000 lost jobs -- the most since Richard Nixon was president, according to the U.S. Department of Labor -- 20,400 were in New York City. Across the nation, unemployment last month climbed to 6 percent, the highest since August 1994. Black Blade: The Wall Street "Bone Pile" will grow as new investigations and law suits are about to commence with revelations that securities analysts were compensated for bringing in corporate business in a clear conflict of investors interests. Look for $Billions in lawsuit judgements and possible legal action by the SEC. These revelations have had a profound effect on Wall Street today with the DOW down nearly 200 pts., NASDAQ down nearly 35 pts., and the S&P 500 down over 20 points. It should drop much more as the market indices remain grossly over-valued. Also, Winn-Dixie announces that it will contribute 5,300 to the growing "Bone Pile". RobotGuy (5/6/02; 14:46:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 75019) Interesting After Hours Activity I've noticed before the little bit of activity with POG, but usually it dips down momentarily and then back to it's current level. Whose market does this area cover? COMEX closes around 2:00pm eastern usually. The Hoople (5/6/02; 14:37:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 75018) Gandalf the White Spike's been eating steroid-laced Kibbles n' Bits. He's on his way to Toronto to hike his leg on the ABX schrubs. They probably will die. Gandalf the White (5/6/02; 14:30:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 75017) Nice to see you and SPIKE again, Goldfly !! Ari is now back and I am awaiting the return of Aragorn III.Just had a roll of THUNDER here -- first that it has happened for quite a while !!!Aragorn's "LIGHTING" should follow soon.<;-) Gandalf the White (5/6/02; 14:24:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 75016) WELCOME, SPIKE !!! JUMP, SPOT !!!JUMP<;-) Goldfly (5/6/02; 14:24:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 75015) Well, here at least is something different....... http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=0 Gold is spiking up early overseas.... Old Yeller (5/6/02; 14:05:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 75014) "If there is a bank run,you want to be there first" http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020505/bonds_psychology_1.html Interesting look at the nagging doubts piling up on the bond investor's psychology."There is a rising group consciousness that is leaving even some bond investors immobilized,because they don't know what information they can trust and what they are going to do next.It has gone beyond simply worry."Is the next stop the Treasury bond market?That statement could apply equally well to the Fed,the Treasury and the BLS. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (5/6/02; 13:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75013) NGS graded MS61 $10 Liberties (assorted 1800's). For bullion and other selections, please call us! http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
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