 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/6/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Trail Guide
(05/06/00; 22:58:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 30081)
Comment
Cavan Man (05/06/00; 20:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 30063)
Hello Trail Guide
Two questions please:
1.) Will you tell us of your favorite gold stocks?
--------------
I once said one and will hold back from mentioning it (or others) again. The Western view says that if I have $100,000 to put into hard assets, I'll buy ten ounces and place the rest in gold stocks. I doubt most people could hold that ratio through what is most likely coming.
It's the same as using the grocery money to buy Coca Cola stock as a substitute for a bottle of coke. All the same arguments apply: the company could pay me dividends in coke,,,,, there reserves of coke in storage are huge,,,,,,,, more leverage than the real thing,,,,,,etc.,,,,, etc.,,,,!
Then the stock goes down in a general crisis even as the price of a cold coke goes up from inflation and everyone can't figure it out?? In the end you open the frig door and don't see what you really need........ that cold bottle of coke (smile).
2.) Have you been in the very general vicinity of Aiken, SC recently. I'm trying to confirm a sighting:).
Have you been celebrating that mexican holiday??? (smile)
Trail Guide
JavaMan
(05/06/00; 22:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 30080)
ET
Oil is to an engine as blood is to a human. Neither does well for long without it.
I used to have a '71 LT1 350/330 hp in the mid '70s. Fastest car I ever experienced. Didn't realize what I had at the time and ended up selling it for about $4500.
Trail Guide
(05/06/00; 22:35:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 30079)
comment
THC (5/5/2000; 5:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29970)
Hello THC,
I'll add my 2 cents to your discussion.
You say:
---- I believe that FOA has spoken from time to time of "paper being sold into the ground" while "physical gold sells at much higher prices away from the futures markets." I would content that as long as futures markets are connected to physical markets through the physical delivery rules, this would seem to be highly implausible. -----
The obvious weak part here is in your
" " through the physical delivery rules" " !
These rules are open to change. If enough traders or commercials default, no one is going to supply physical for them. The "rules" convert to "trade for liquidation only". That is usually a trade of "paper to paper". In other words "cash settlement". If you were short you lost a bunch. If you were long, you get cash and go try to buy your own metal.
The problem is that in this atmosphere any amount of metal trading will be spiking straight up with each bulk cash settlement.
The reason this perspective is important is that the "paper makers" know just how this will impact the paper markets. In reality, no one that has real capital will buy into a paper marketplace headed for any form of liquidation. So it becomes even easier for them to send prices lower. Even a hint of settlement is enough. If anything at all, during this process the arbitrage is just the opposite from
normal. Traders help the discounting process along by dumping contracts that are even in obvious discount to physical and running to buy "dealer physical" supply at higher prices.
Contracts are contracts my friend. Nothing more until settled. In a real crisis, cool arbitrage players get run down by the train as they find their own physical that was set to trade becomes "suddenly not there"! As the gold markets grind to default, the paper selling by people with nothing more than good credit will greatly intensify.
Trail Guide
JavaMan
(05/06/00; 22:31:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 30078)
Sir Black Blade,
Yes, the brewskies are flowing here too. Just sold my '99 Dyna Wide Glide. Aztec Orange. Beautiful. Ughh. Massive mid-life crisis.
Only drink coffee on weekends, otherwise I would drink to much and would never get to sleep. I work at a software development company doing work in the Java programming language.
Sir Leland...don't get me started on Microsoft. I consider myself to be an "average" programmer yet someone of comparable skill, if so inclined, could wipe out just about every Windows PC connected to a network that is connected to the Internet. Period. I'm just waiting for some nut-case Iraqi, Libyan, or Communist Chinese to go for it. Of course, I suspect it would/could be construed as a declaration of war against the US, but that wouldn't mean to much to the individual at work who has to get something done ASAP and they are staring at the notorious Windows blue screen of death.
ET
(05/06/00; 22:23:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 30077)
Peter, Leland, HD
Hey Peter - I saw you posted some of my old stuff. It's strange reading one's old quotes. I can't say I'm anymore certain about the future than I was a year ago. The stock markets seem much weaker than a year ago and the charts look very weak for paper yet strong for hard assets. Even copper is finally moving to the upside. Stranger has it right in most respects.
Hey Leland - I made the switch to Linux last year and can proudly say I use no Microsoft products. At this point however I wish I did as it is distressing to see what the US government is doing to the company. Mr. overherd and I have been keeping in touch as he has also made the switch. Linux is an outstanding system and is getting better by the day. The real problem facing Microsoft is the fact that most of the software that they rely on for profit is becoming free under the Linux operating system. No matter how you look at it, free is the better deal. <g>
Hey Harley Davidson - sorry to hear of your loss. I suffered a similar loss recently when I lost oil pressure in my Corvette and cooked my roller-cam small block. Life can be cruel. I will rebuild however and possibly be looking to trade for one of those 2-wheeler's.
ET
Black Blade
(05/06/00; 22:17:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 30076)
US Reserve Assets Decrease $930 million.
Source: Wall Street Journal
The following from WSJ May 3rd, page C9.
US official reserve assets fell $930 million last week to $66.83 billion after a revised $379 million the previous week, The Treasury Department said.
US reserve assets consist of foreign currencies, gold, special drawing rights at the International Montetary Fund and the US reserve position - its ability to draw foreign currencies - at the IMF.
The nation's holdings of foreign currencies dropped $483 million last week to $30.27 billion, while it's gold reserves were unchanged at $11.05 billion. US holdings of IMF special drawing rights fell $178 million to $10.12 billion, and its reserve position at the IMF fell $270 million to $15.39 billion.
Black Blade
(05/06/00; 22:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 30075)
Correction
Should read Why the handle....? Whew, good beer tonight! New key board too!
Black Blade
(05/06/00; 22:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 30074)
Harley......Uh, I mean Java
Sold your Harley? Bummer. I know the feeling, but my last Harley was a Wide Glide. Still have my 69 Charger, 76 CJ-7, and 92 F-150 4X4. Now, my the handle Javaman? This to do with a lot of coffee drinking or a little evolutionary phase that your going through?
JavaMan
(05/06/00; 21:54:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 30073)
Simply Me, psychology 101...
You said "I would be interested in everyone's thoughts about the similarities/differences in gambling vs. investing, and why market philosophy is starting to look so obviously like casino psychology."
You're well on your way to identifying, in part, what is going on in the markets today. The key, as it relates to your observation above, is in what is known as behavioral psychology. B.F. Skinner, the well know psychologist of the ‘70s became famous for his work in behavioral modification. He discovered some interesting characteristics common to most, if not all, living creatures. One of his experiments that ultimately had far reaching implications was a follows: Put a white rat in a cage with a container hanging on the side of the cage that dispensed a sugar pellet when a lever was depressed. In no time at all, the rat learned that, by depressing the lever, he was rewarded by a sugar pellet.
Now comes the "revolutionary" part. The container is controlled by a switch that the experimenter operates so they can override the dispensing of the sugar pellet when the rat presses the lever. In other words, sometimes the rat presses the lever, and he gets the reward of the pellet and sometimes he presses the lever and no reward is forth coming.
So what is so revolutionary about this you might well ask. Simple. The real discovery was the observation that when the experimenter "turned off" the container so it would no longer dispense more pellets, the rat would press on the lever some number of times before walking away, never pressing the lever again. This was called "extinguishing" a behavior. But then, with another rat, the experimenter manipulated the container in a random fashion so sometimes the rat was rewarded for pressing the lever and sometimes he wasn't. Then, in conclusion, the experimenter turned off the container so no pellets were dispensed when the rat pressed the lever. And guess what happened. The rat would continue to press the lever far beyond the number of times of the other rat.
B.F. Skinner discovered that reinforcement of a behavior "randomly" was a much more powerful form of behavioral conditioning and, consequently, much more difficult to extinguish. So we come full circle to gambling which is random reinforcement at its finest and I give you the stock market which, today, is gambling at its finest.
This gives a whole new insight into the "buy on the dip" mentality. Based on the information above, I wouldn't be surprised to see people buying into this market all the way to the bottom...looking, hoping, knowing, there is another sugar pellet on the next press of the lever.
Gold Trail Update
(05/06/00; 21:50:38MDT - Msg ID:30072)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
TownCrier
(05/06/00; 21:35:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 30071)
Sir Cavan Man (msg#: 30067) ... nice post on leadership
You said:
"The Euro might have been concepted out of necessity but its birth in my view is an expression not only of "political will" but of a daring act of leadership to conceivably take a large part of the world's citizenry to a higher economic level. These Euromeisters should be congratulated and respected for their audacity in challenging the post-'47 monetary order. Furthermore, their resistance to intervene in FOREX markets and bow to journalistic sentiment is another feather in their caps."
I also liked your comment on the "daring" which is required when choosing to live in a manner where you are NOT being led around by the hand. As such, we can all either sit back and wait for things to unfold, whereby we would be essentially be hand-led by the events of the day; or better, we can actively look for evidence and read the signs (as we may) while we pursue a more thoughtful and sovereign existence.
In light of your comments, I truly hope you have found (or will soon find) a moment to read this post from yesterday:
-----------------------------
TownCrier (5/5/2000; 21:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 30028)
-----------------------------
It touches on many items that would not be conducted on the front page of the newspapers, yet the leadership is there nonetheless, should we all choose to follow the signs or not.
To build just a bit more on my post, and to fold in the important element of your post, it strikes me as significant that these 11 independent nations took the trouble to form a NEW currency even as they were surrendering their individual national perks of currency manufacturing. In a very rough sense, when you are planning your national budget in Helsinki or Madrid, you might just as well well turn to the Fed in the U.S. as to the ECB in Frankfurt, no? If they are giving up their own ability to print money, why all the trouble to form a new currency unit instead of just joining the dollar and the currency union of 50 states plus assorted banana republics that use the dollar? The reasonable answer is that the intended objective is a fundamentally new monetary architecture not available through the current dollar system.
Your quote could very well be right on the money. Again, please have a look at yesterday's post if you haven't already. The best kind of leadership generally operates from plans that are credible. (You be the judge of the credibilty of what I have mapped out in that post.) The tough part for leadership is finding the resolve to do the "right" thing during calm times when so many have become accustomed to the "easy" thing.
pdeep
(05/06/00; 21:06:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 30070)
Euro "Weakness"
I think Oro had something to say about this a while back, but I'll air my confusion again.
In the WSJ today, there's an article quoting a few economist-pundits bemoaning the weakness of the Euro, and one suggesting supply-side solutions to the "Euro Crisis." However, isn't it true that Europe probably holds a few hundred billion dollars in dollar currency reserves? Europe has run a current account surplus with the US for a decade or so. If the ECB decided to bolster the Euro, couldn't they just start selling the dollar reserves and buy Euros? It probably woudn't take much to burn Euro shorts, and they have plenty of ammo.
Since they are not, is it safe to say that the Euro "weakness" is not something that the ECB wants to fix via forex interventions?
Leland
(05/06/00; 21:04:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 30069)
After What Happened This Week...I'm Building a Linux Computer
And, what reeeleee bugs me.....
Sat May 6 22:50:38 EDT 2000
Microsoft Stock Price:
$71.125
Bill Gates's Wealth:
$80.320000 billion
U.S. Population:
274,747,123
Your Personal Contribution:
$292.342
"If you want to know what God thinks about money, just look at the people He gives it
to."
-- Old Irish Saying
Cavan Man
(05/06/00; 20:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 30068)
HD
Welcome J Man!
Cavan Man
(05/06/00; 20:27:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 30067)
The Euro and "Leadership"
What do the two subjects, one a currency, one a quality have in common?
I have reached the conclusion (and I'll not be swayed even by the great intellects that inhabit this cyberspace)that people in our times, today, do not want leadership of any sort. In my view, people want bureaucracy; they want "management", not leadership. Leadership requires thinking "outside the box", it requires daring, it requires risk, it requires a strong spirit. Leadership can be very hard work and tricky business. I have observed this human emotive tendency that seeks maintenance of the status quo in every aspect of our lives over the course of some years.
BTW, you might ask, how do you define leadership? If I might borrow from and excellent tome on the subject, "On Becoming a Leader", by Warren Bennis, I define it thusly; "Leadership is a lot like beauty. I know it when I see it." This short book by Bennis is one of the most inspiring I have ever read.
The Euro might have been concepted out of necessity but its birth in my view is an expression not only of "political will" but of a daring act of leadership to conceivably take a large part of the world's citizenry to a higher economic level. These Euromeisters should be congratulated and respected for their audacity in challenging the post-'47 monetary order. Furthermore, their resistance to intervene in FOREX markets and bow to journalistic sentiment is another feather in their caps.
Good luck to you Euro. May the best currency(ies) win!
That's the "American Spirit". That's the "American Way".
Good evening.....CM
Simply Me
(05/06/00; 20:21:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 30066)
To Town Crier and Trail Guide
To Town Crier,
I love puzzles. Thank you for the challenge! I must work on the answer 'till tomorrow, though. I've had one too many Mai Tai's this afternoon. I couldn't get myself out of a Chinese finger puzzle right now!
The rest of my post are thoughts from yesterday.
Will respond as soon as I'm able.
To Trail Guide, and all,
An idea I've been working on seems to mesh well with the thoughts you've expressed today on the 'Gold Trail'. (The salmon was heavenly!) In trying to gain some perspective on the western mindset, I think it is meaningful that as the US stock market has boomed this past twenty years...the casino business has also spread all over the US landscape. The following is a post I was working on earlier today, before I started working on a hangover. (With all the sugar in the mixer, it should be a doosie!)
I would be interested in everyone's thoughts about the similarities/differences in gambling vs. investing, and why market philosophy is starting to look so obviously like casino psychology.
It's a very slow Saturday. Everyone seems to be holding their breath, trying to feel which way the wind will blow next.
Watching the stock market all this year has been very much like sitting in a casino. Strategically placed machines are looser than others. So that those machines are making the "sounds of winning" all over the casino. Even though they're spitting out only small jackpots with any regularity, the sight and sounds of winning are driving everyone sitting at the tight machines to keep pumping those tokens in with the hopes that the next spin will be the jackpot. And they keep moving around looking for a loose machine.
Ah, but the poor shmoe sitting at the loose machine is the REAL loser! Because after a couple of adreneline pounding jackpots, he's hooked! He'll keep pumping those tokens in the slot till he's broke, trying to hit it again. After all, it's his lucky day!
Next time you're in a Casino, get a drink and go stand on a stairway with a good view of the slot machines. Stay there till the drink is gone. (I suggest the drink because everything else about the place is designed to draw you into the crowd.) Watch the people at the machines.
Yep, they'll keep buying tech/communications/biotech stocks on the dips all the way down to the bottom. They have to. This long bull market has hooked a lot of people who don't know any other way. They're looking at the blackjack (commodities) table, but they don't know how to play that game and they know they're likely to loose their butts learning, so they keep loosing at the easy game they know.
This is surely not the case with the OLD professional gamblers, Soros et. al. They've been playing at the poker table (not the slots) all along.
But the poor schmoe with the least to loose is at the slot machine, with every machine rigged to make the sound of winning without actually paying out.
Where does gold fit in all this? It's the money that purchases the slot machine tokens and poker chips.
Right now the casino is offering $2 in chips for $1 in gold. The irresistable chance to double your money, double your chances to win big! How can they do that. Easy,
they make the chips...they can make as many as they want. And they know once you have the chips in your hands, you're going to gamble them. They get your dollar in gold and they will eventually get their chips back, too.
The only way to win is to keep your dollar's worth of gold.
simply me
TownCrier
(05/06/00; 20:20:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 30065)
Welcoming the new pedestrian...
Glad to see that all is in working order for you, Old HD.
JavaMan
(05/06/00; 20:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 30064)
RE: Harley Davidson
As is customary with the passing of all things dear, I would like to ask for a moment of silence.
(Insert moment of silence here)
This week I ran an add in the newspaper to sell my Harley and today someone came to look at it. So impressed was he, that he gave me a substantial cash deposit on the spot, and asked if we could conclude the deal on Monday. And so ends an aspect of my life that goes back to 1966.
If you ask someone what the mystique is about a Harley Davidson, they would say "if I have to explain it, you wouldn't understand." I talked to a factory representative once and he said "its not a motorcycle, it's a way of life."
Oh well, my son goes off to college in September and I have to take care of business. Not that the bike will cover all of that but it's a start. The HD sure is expensive and they hold their resale value like no other transportation I know of.
So, to transition into my new life, sans HD, I feel it inappropriate to continue at the round table as "Harley Davidson" as that era has come to an end, and because of the seemingly unlimited technical prowess of our Town Crier, I am now able to post with my new handle, "JavaMan"!
Oh yeah, I never bought all that crap about "its not a motorcycle, it's a way of life." It is a unique piece of engineering though. 88 cubic inches (more displacement than the early Volkswagens) of throbbing, tree stump pulling torque, thunder, and chrome. It is art in motion...poetry on wheels...and the experience of taking one down the road is not for the faint of heart, but that "way of life" stuff is pure, unadulterated, well...maybe they have something there...nah!
Cavan Man
(05/06/00; 20:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 30063)
Hello Trail Guide
Two questions please:
1.) Will you tell us of your favorite gold stocks?
2.) Have you been in the very general vicinity of Aiken, SC recently. I'm trying to confirm a sighting :).
Cavan Man
(05/06/00; 20:04:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 30062)
USAGOLD
The future can be seen in the present.
USAGOLD
(05/06/00; 19:40:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 30061)
Asian Nations Back Currency Plan
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/000506/asian_bank_4.html
AP Report (5/6/00)
"Thirteen Asian nations agreed Saturday to help defend each other's
currencies in the event of an economic crisis like the one that devastated the region in 1997-1998.
Economic powers Japan, China and South Korea decided to take a role in the fledgling currency protection
scheme adopted two months ago by the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, part of a wider goal of creating a more united Asia on the world economic stage.
Finance ministers from those countries met on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank, a Philippines-based institution
some Asian officials would like to see become a lender of last resort to troubled nations."
From same article:
"Malaysia, which has long urged fellow Asian nations to rely on each other for help, rather than on the West, refused the IMF's treatment and suffered less in the crisis than others."
Also:
"We firmly believe that it will not end here. This is a beginning. It can evolve into something bigger,'' said Mustapa Mohamed, deputy finance
minister of Malaysia."
SHIFTY
(05/06/00; 19:33:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 30060)
Off to the gold trail ! ! !
See ya
SHIFTY
(05/06/00; 19:31:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 30059)
Neil Young- Silver & Gold
Neil Young has a new album out titled SILVER & GOLD !
Some of his past work was " Hart of gold" and " After the gold rush." He will be the musical guest on Saterday Night Live tonight.
SHIFTY
(05/06/00; 19:06:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 30058)
Leland
That is a frightening statistic.
Henri
(05/06/00; 18:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 30057)
Town Crier Post 30023
I'm Thinkin'...I'm Thinkin'
Thanks for the invite. I'll respond when I ponder it out
Gold Trail Update
(05/06/00; 16:45:22MDT - Msg ID:30056)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Leland
(05/06/00; 16:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 30055)
I Flunked...See if You Can Guess Without Reading the Answer
Guess Which Country This is
* 709,000 regular (active duty) service personnel;
* 293,000 reserve troops;
* Eight standing army divisions;
* 20 air force and navy air wings with 2,000 combat aircraft;
* 232 strategic bombers;
* 13 strategic ballistic missile submarines with 3,114 nuclear warheads
on
232 missiles;
* 500 ICBMs with 1,950 warheads;
* Four aircraft carriers, and;
* 121 surface combat ships and submarines, plus all the support bases,
shipyards and logistical assets needed to sustain such a naval force.
Is this country:
Russia? . . . No
Red China ? . . . No
Great Britain ? . . . Wrong Again
USA? . . . Hardly
Give Up? Well, don't feel too bad if you are unable to identify this
global
superpower because this country no longer exists. It has vanished.
These are the American military forces that have disappeared since the
1992
election.
Sleep well, America.
TownCrier
(05/06/00; 16:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 30054)
Some fun on a slow day... Can you say, "Inspiration"?
http://www.three-kings.com/
For those of you who wondered, it is more about gold than you ever had imagined. You will never see the top of the forum in quite the same way again.
TownCrier
(05/06/00; 15:44:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 30053)
Sir Simply Me, thank you for pursuing this line of thought
Goal: Drive down the price of physical gold.
Terms of operation: Unlimited funds and no access to physical gold in any form.
Your answer: Buy as many "puts" as possible in about the $240.00 to $270 range in the futures market, concentrating on June. Then after May 15th, begin rolling them over into August "puts". Completing the action before May 30th.
"I just want to know if I'm on the right track to understanding this stuff. Logging on to this forum is like sitting in on a Nuclear Physics course without taking Physics 101"
---------------------------------
While it is true that economics can seem quite obscure on the surface, it is actually quite accessible. The only coursework prerequisite for this "class" is life itself. If you are conscious, you can surely attend, and if you have time for thought, you will surely thrive.
Are you on the right track, you ask? Let's let you decide. Please do some "thinking out loud" (post on the forum) on the cause-and-effect of your proposed action to drive down the price of gold. Meaning, why did you choose to buy these put options, and what do you anticipate would become of them? Would you expect them to expire worthless, or would you be in a position to exercise them? What actions do you anticipate this activity would inspire among others in the market? Thanks in advance. We can kick this around as much as you'd like. You don't have to present a Master's Thesis all at once. That would take the fun out of it all, wouldn't it?
HI - HAT
(5/6/2000; 13:06:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 30052)
Fundamental Time
The exchange rate of the Euro was by calculation set to high to begin with. All world economic and trade computer models work off of dollar ratios. As such the Euro creators know that the NEW must transverse the road of introduction,acceptance,familiarity,true world fundamental value price discovery.
For whatever reasons the Euro is trading in this lower band it is succeeding in getting the worlds attention and thereby forcing a deeper analysis in the process of finding a price value discovery perception. It must go through a run from pillar to post in order to equalize out in its future range.
The Euro since it is NEW must have time to be firmly "Fixed" in the world consceisnous. The point I am making here is like the old publicity ditty, "print anything you want, but make sure you spell my name right".
As FOA says, we have a 007 going on here.
Peter Asher
(5/6/2000; 13:03:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 30051)
Gandalf, YGM
14.5 lbs. X 16 = 232 oz. X $278 =$64,496.
Even if you take Troy including Helen you don't get a value of $590,000. Although --- What is the value of a "Face that launched a thousand ships"?
Harley Davidson
(5/6/2000; 12:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 30050)
Sir Henri..re: esparagus roots on a slow day!
Not exactly HOF material but here we go. I'm gonna take a wild guess here. Actually, I think your on to something with "something down there to go after"...water. My understanding (which could be way off - I thought I was wrong once before but I was "mistaken" (smile)) is asparagus grows best in sandy soil (New Jersey?). If that's the case, then the water would drain easily and the the roots would have to go deep to get it. Just a hunch.
YGM
(5/6/2000; 12:44:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 30049)
Gandalf....
14.5 lb Nugget.....
I'm not sure of troy oz p/lb......but 14.5 lbs yessss! What about the one in, I believe Australia, where the farmer high centered his tractor on a boulder in a muddy field.....It was in the tonnes......????
Regards...YGM.
Henri
(5/6/2000; 12:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 30048)
Harley Davidson Question for a slow day
Why the H*ll do asparagas have to have such long d*mn roots!
You'd think there was something way down there to go after that they can't find up above.
Gandalf the White
(5/6/2000; 11:51:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 30047)
YGM -- Question !
is that 14.5 Pounds ? aka = 174 oz.
<;-)
YGM
(5/6/2000; 11:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 30046)
Feel Lucky?.......Prospect Oz........
Nice Watch Fob.........
Friday May 5 11:11 AM ET
Australia Lets Prospector Keep Gold
PERTH, Australia (AP) - A state supreme court ruled Friday that a taxi driver and amateur prospector could keep the 141/2-pound gold nugget he had unearthed on someone else's land.
George Dimitrovski found the nugget, valued at $590,000, five years ago while prospecting near Marble Bar, 750 miles north of the West Australia state capital of Perth.
Landowner Frank Welsh complained to police that Dimitrovski had been prospecting illegally on his property. Welsh became aware of the find after Dimitrovski took the nugget into a local bar to boast.
Dimitrovski, 52, was charged with unlawful possession, and the gold was confiscated and stored in a vault in Perth's mint.
After a series of court hearings, West Australian Supreme Court Judge Graeme Scott upheld a lower court decision throwing out the prosecution's case.
Dimitrovski said Friday he would not sell the nugget.
``I want to put it on display at the Sydney Olympics and try to get some sort of cover charge on it and give it toward a charity,'' he said.
Leland
(5/6/2000; 10:39:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 30045)
Reading Oil & Gas Articles Today, Here's the Best One
OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE, HOUSTON—
US natural gas prices "definitely" will climb to $4/Mcf this fall, with
world oil prices escalating to $40/bbl probably within a year, unless
producers dramatically increase spending to offset depletion and to
supply growing demand, a University of Houston professor told
reporters at the Offshore Technology Conference Monday in
Houston.
But that's nothing compared with what will happen when the real
gas shortage hits North America within 2 or 3 years, says Michael J.
Economides, coauthor of "The Color of Oil," a book about the
economics of the oil and gas industry.
With rapid depletion of current gas resources and steady escalation
of demand, Economides said, freezing Chicago residents will be
paying a whopping $40/Mcf for gas in the middle of some
not-too-distant winter. "It's the biggest energy story not being
written about," he claimed.
Economides said US gas producers are not discovering enough
new gas reserves to offset rapid depletion of current reserves and
meet growing demand that is expected to hit 30 tcf by 2010. It's the
same scenario that Matthew Simmons, president of Simmons & Co.
International, Houston, has been arguing for years.
Moreover, Economides said many of the gas-fired power plants
now being planned won't be built in time to meet demand projections.
"You couldn't buy a turbine today if you wanted to. General Electric
has a 3-year backlog," he said.
Still, he predicted, "We'll see $4 gas before $40 oil."
Oil prices
Economides expects world oil prices to spike again next year,
however, because most OPEC members don't have the excess
capacity to meet their new production quotas. "Saudi Arabia maybe
has 1 million b/d of excess capacity. But the rest of them don't.
Venezuela, [the US's] biggest supplier, is working hard to meet its
present production quota," Economides said.
His supporters point out that he correctly predicted the last price
peak of $30/bbl back when oil was still selling for $11/bbl.
At his OTC press conference, Economides rejected what he calls
the "myth" of low lifting costs in Saudi Arabia and other major Middle
East countries. Nor can big producers turn oil production on and off
at will, he says. Any significant ramp-up in world oil production will
take huge capital investment, said Economides.
Based on his "Production Activation Index" of the investment
required to add one new barrel of daily oil production, Economides
said such additions would cost Saudi Arabia and Venezuela's
western oil-producing provinces some $3,500/bbl. Even allowing for
the potentially huge reserves a new discovery could add in those
countries, Economides said both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela would
lose money on any oil market price less than $21/bbl—the same
clearance level required for West Texas Intermediate crude.
"The Kuwait oil minister estimated that a $7 billion investment would
be required to bring an additional 350,000 b/d production in North
Kuwait, implying an activation index of $20,000/bbl. Iraq has
announced that it seeks $30 billion for an incremental production of
4 million b/d, resulting in an activation index of $7,500/bbl," he said.
To turn a profit on that production, Iraq would need a market price of
$76/bbl, while Kuwait's equilibrium oil price is an eye-popping
$201/bbl, he figures. In contrast, Economides said, the mature
shallow-water region of the Gulf of Mexico has one of the lowest
activation indexes in the world—$1,000/bbl, about the same as
West Africa. That translates into an equilibrium oil price of $4/bbl for
the gulf and $6/bbl for West Africa.
Economides acknowledged that his Production Activation Index
calculations are simplistic. Actual results will involve other factors,
including shifts in market shares, the move to greater gas
consumption, and the "seemingly-always underestimated positive
effects of investing in technology," he said.
Nonetheless, said Economides, an average oil price of more than
$25/bbl for the next 2-3 years "is not unrealistic."
(From O&G JOURNAL ONLINE, and Fair Use for Educational/Research Purposes Only.)
Hipplebeck
(5/6/2000; 10:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 30044)
central bank leasing
I have said this before, but it has been awhile.
When the central banks sell gold, they are merely making available the interest that they will recieve when gold leases come due. If central bank lease agreements really do demand interest in gold instead of cash (as I presume they do), then they are playing the smartest game in the world.
They will eventually own all the gold if they want.
Hipplebeck
(5/6/2000; 10:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 30043)
central bank leasing
I have said this before, but it has been awhile.
When the central banks sell gold, they are merely making available the interest that they will recieve when gold leases come due. If central bank lease agreements really do demand interest in gold instead of cash (as I presume they do), then they are playing the smartest game in the world.
They will eventually own all the gold if they want.
Hipplebeck
(5/6/2000; 9:45:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 30042)
smart money
I just listened to the smart money radio program one PBS.
They were talking of the success of tech stocks as though they were in the past tense.
A lot about Soros, Buffett and Soro's co hedge fund guys quitting on the market and saying it's irrational.
This sounds to me like a complete compitulation that the boom days are over.
I don't know how many people like to listen to that show, but I know it is broadcast all over the U S,
I also saw that bank CDs are nearing 8%.
The wave has crested, and is now breaking,
If you have got yourself set up right you'll be surfing, if not you could get washed up in the whitewater, maybe even washed onto the rocks.
Own gold
Leland
(5/6/2000; 9:45:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 30041)
Bill Fleckenstein Sorta' Puts His Finger on Whas' Happn'
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm#tquotns
"I can share a story from the waning days of the Tokyo bull market in 1989 that may
shed some light on the situation. As the fundamentals began to deteriorate in late 1989,
often I would call Japan and check in to see how my short position was doing (I was
short Tokyo throughout 1989). The news would be bad, and the situation would be
dire, and the market would be going up..." (Click for
more)
Harley Davidson
(5/6/2000; 9:33:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 30040)
Peter...
Wow things DO look slow today.
I just finished showing the bike to a prospective buyer. He gave me a deposit and we'll do the deal next week. Lots of mixed emotions today.
Peter Asher
(5/6/2000; 9:23:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 30039)
Empty Forum
Nah, nothing to dissagree with' ever-one's brilliant.
I see this Item I found on Dec.6 '98
>>>It seems that "electronic transactions" must be denominated in Euros only after 2002.<<<<
I wonder if some countries are thinking "Let's cut our losses now before investing in all that data programing that would be wasted if the EURO doesn't survive."
Peter Asher
(5/6/2000; 9:02:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 30038)
(No Subject)
Hooh-boy, nothing! I'm going back to the Arcives and look for somthing to disagree with.
Peter Asher
(5/6/2000; 9:00:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 30037)
Test
Is the site down or are we tongue tied.
Leland
(5/6/2000; 2:24:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 30036)
Peter Asher, Your Msg. #30034
Opened a whole new subject...escalating online fraud. So,
I went to Alta Vista, typed in "online fraud"...there were
5,402 pages! I wonder, how many pages will there be after
the stock markets "blow up"???
Peter Asher
(5/6/2000; 0:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 30035)
Getting on subject in the big world too
Does home schooling provide a better
education than public schools?
Yes
49% => 21573 votes
No
37% => 16392 votes
Don't know
13% => 5977 votes
Current Vote Tally: 43942
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
