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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/6/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Topaz (12/06/00; 21:54:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 43129)
Oh! - the RL Day bit - d-uh!
First thing this Morning on the Radio, Au is UP $4.10 - eeha!
Next item, Geoffery Robertson, host of "Hypothetical" has been briefed to tackle the Crown on arcane laws that prevent illegitimates and Catholics from acceding to the Throne of England......disqualifies me on both counts!
Then, the very next item, The guardian Newspaper is to throw it's weight behind a push to declare England a Republic!
Now I ask you - can you see my point?
Yup, thats it, the future is crystal clear - HRH Queen Elizabeth, under duress, re-locates down-under where she was unequivically voted (chad free) Queen of OZ. Sets up residence in Casa del Topaz. and the rest will be History.

Topaz (12/06/00; 21:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 43128)
Derivatives / Red Letter Day
As posted previously I consider myself "derivative free" apart from my handle (above) however: As the definitiion of a derivative is - an instrument who's value is derived from that of the underlying asset - can it not be said that Physical Gold, Silver and PGM's are derivatives of the underlying Paper asset?...and we're SHORT.
It get's better:-
As physical metal holders, can it also not be said that we are "short" the Markets, "short" Currencies "short" Bonds etc?
Hot Damn! I'm a freekin Hannibal Cannibal.

Lois (12/06/00; 21:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 43127)
WHY WONT GORE CONCEED
http://mtco.com/~ether/zonepolls.html
Click the link and vote

Journeyman (12/06/00; 20:47:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 43126)
Nice one @Randy (@ The Tower) (12/06/00; 20:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 43123)

Regards,
Journeyman



CoBra(too) (12/06/00; 20:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 43125)
There's a lot gonna change - Stranger
Hello there,
and some of it changed today - at least the perception
that the US$ willl buy everything. From now on "Big Al" will not even be believed @Home - he squandered his credibilty as of yesterday (Krampus!) -as he has squandered his credibility anyway, to the sole advantage of
the financial mafia - formerly investment and commercial banks, the only entities above courts, regulatory, or even constitutional powers today - ...
... what a way to lead to the fray of seeking ballots ...
astray ... and some may even pay for "pregnant" chads,
dimpled, freckled, buckled or even gored, god beware, get a grip ... and please end this "Trauerspiel" ... cb2

Chris Powell (12/06/00; 20:37:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 43124)
GATA having an impact on gold market
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/580
The institutional people don't believe
us yet, but they're taking note of us
and saying that we might be helping to
move the market against the bad guys.
We're working on it!


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@eGroups.com

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/06/00; 20:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 43123)
You are the central banker for Banania...
Your charge is to act as the middleman between the government's interests and those of the people (yes, you are a "peace keeper" of sorts) to ensure the smoothest functioning economy in spite of the players involved. (We will not dwell on that aspect overmuch here, lest we lose the mark for which I am aiming.)

Banania sprung from the tropical sea, born upon the fertile shoulders of a now dormant superficial expression of the igneous intrigues from the depths below. Banania is blessed with a self-motivated body of inhabitants that know how to work the natural resources of the land in order to reap the fruits of their productivity beyond their own needs for consumption. Hence, Banania is able to run a favorable balance of trade with the wider world. Meaning, the island nation exports more value in goods and services than it imports. The net difference is accounted for with the receipt of pallets of foreign currency.

Because the locals have no need for this foreign currency, it is sent to you for exchange into currency of local issue at the prevailing exchange rate. Now the choice of action falls to you--not a character playing a sinister role in a black and white silent movie with girls tied to railroad tracks because they were unable to pay the rent--but the very same you that strives to do the best with what you have and what you know.

1) Do you remit this various international currency to the nation of origin in exchange for interest bearing bonds so that these accounts may grow larger faster over time? But before you move for that option, please recall that future policy within these foreign lands may result in changes to the future exchange rates that more than erase any foreseeable gains attributable to the interest earned on their bonds.

2) Or, do you pick the best looking of the lot and first offer all other currencies up for exchange for these few attractive currencies, and then collect only those specific bonds using an approach where you "put all eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket with all your might?" But still, while holding the currency derivatives of another as your national reserves (savings), you are subject to these foreign nations’ self-serving management policy. (This is essentially the reserve management model endorsed by the U.S./IMF.

3) Or, do you attempt to engineer a TRUE balance of trade by remitting these excess various international currencies to the countries of origin in exchange for a good that can serve as a universal monetary asset (yes, gold) to be held as your national reserve asset (savings)? Obviously, when held over time, the "price-value" of such gold reserves in the local currency would be ever determined by the free market in like manner to everything else responding to open market supply and demand. (In this we get a glimpse of the euro-style reserve management model.)

Due to the constraints recalled by the first paragraph, these three are your only options. Now, what shall you do? When you picture other international central bankers as parents and grandparents, wearing shoes very much like your own, what decision in this somewhat simplified exercise do you believe they would favor?

For many years, option 3 was not an option. Other than having immediate freedom from the inertia of past decisions, your choice for Banania speaks volumes of insight for the future decisions of your counterparts. And what holds true on the national level holds true for the individual portfolio in which even the "local" currency must be viewed as one issued by a "foreign interest" under "foreign management".

Topaz (12/06/00; 20:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 43122)
Zenidea
G'day Zen,
The handle is a derivative of my email - Daughter said it sounds "poofy"(sic) - only "derivative" I possess.
The Aussie isn't matching Au in that the A$/Au is creeping slowly northward back into the "red-zone" from the pov of the Miners.
Nought on Platinum here mate, though I'm not really watching!
Watch your P's-n-Q's in China Zen.

TheStranger (12/06/00; 20:05:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 43121)
Exit Clinton, Exit Gore, Exit Summers, Exit Strong Dollar Policy
In the months ahead the Fed will be faced with an impossible balancing act. A slowing economy will force them to lower interest rates. Yet the combination of a weakening economy and lower relative interest rates will discourage foreign investment in the U.S. and drive the dollar down against other currencies. This will be great medicine for our balance of trade, true enough. And global American companies which have been suffering with the strong dollar will suddenly find themselves in the catbird seat.

Recent statements by Greenspan and Broaddus make it clear that the time is fast upon us to make this change in course. Already gone are the days when dollar strength can be used to offset the effects of a loose monetary policy. The Fed now has bigger fish to fry. No wonder the gold market is reawakening.

A lower dollar will raise the price of all imported goods in the U.S. And that's alota goods! U.S. inflation will be compounded far beyond the government's ability to conceal it anymore. Woe to all them Phillips Curvians who were in there snappin' up them 30-year guvvies near 5 1/2% today. Before the winter snows melt they are going to feel like a bunch of damn fools.

You ain't seen nothin' yet.







CoBra(too) (12/06/00; 20:02:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 43120)
Miss all your input - as POG is breaking to the upside! ...
... and as I'm on watch in the middle of the night - you guys are too sophistcated to even comment?

Well, you may have seen it all before - maybe - though never after an important AG -- Speak, informing his banking cronies to freak out of markets and sneak to reality and tangible assets.

While we know, only few will succeed, the POG will be the creed - for all the bullion banks who need to fill - bad will - and kill the notion of divesting a major portion of their investor's position - to anilihalation.

.... even AlGae will be at a loss to paper over his
Master's Whisper ... who's got the gold? ...
Hopefully - me and you - cb2

PS - GWB - it's time for "HE"!

YGM (12/06/00; 19:49:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 43119)
Latest @ Golden Sextant....
http://www.goldensextant.com/
Current MPEG Commentary

12/6/2000 - Guest Article: Evidence of Gold Manipulation on the COMEX


JavaMan (12/06/00; 19:01:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 43118)
Something for everyone to think about...
The SpudMaster tells it as it is at kitco:

SpudMaster (@Thomas re. ) ID#249209:
<<"Tell me, please, what % of the world's population prospered in times of gold currency?"

Rather ask: How many were content & at peace with themselves?

How many were debt free?
How many owned their own lives?
How many had intact families?
How many had scruples?
How many cared for their children?
How many cared for their nation?

Here in the corrupt, short-term prosperity of the last sixty years of Imperial America, we only have things ... we don't have happy. or peace.

We is debt-slaves.
We is divorced.
We is dope-heads.
We is on Prozac, Zoloft, Serzone, Salvarsan.
We is living on credit cards.
We is children of broken homes.
We is +20 million unborn babies, ground up and flushed down the sewer like offal, for convenice.
We is a President so venal, so corrupting, so foul that it defies everything America was founded upon.

THIS is your fiat "prosperity".

And when this fiat paper/magic-bank-number system finally sags to its festering sore-crusted knees and its rotting hide bursts open to gush the putrescent lies of the last 60 years, guess what?

Where is your "prosperity"?

You traded your long term future for a handful of short term "feel-goods".

And now, like the crack-addict, health ruined, family gone, wealth-squandered, self-respect zero ... what is left.

Payback is a b*itch.>>









CoBra(too) (12/06/00; 18:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 43117)
Short and Direct -
From Harry @ GE:
"Those dummies never heard of Newton - US stocks hit by falling Apple!' -
Tku - Harry - great "observation' - cb2

silvercollector (12/06/00; 18:34:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 43116)
Guns, guns and more guns
http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/Quarters/1106/links.html
Links to

-gun manufacturers
-general links
-ammo
-apparel

CoBra(too) (12/06/00; 18:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 43115)
One Day Wonder? Al, gee?
In the end it boils down to financials - BoA has problems with "bad" loans - ... and if BoA has prob's who hasn't?! - Freddy and Fanny are somewhat onerous, while CMB/JPM
are looking for new intellectual genius - as bank's are starved of these qualities (re:CNBC discussion) - ... Well, who want's to work for a pittance - as you can join the ruby rob'bers of front runners - .. apply now for future top job, in sales of paper in bales - ... and the malady - of salary -will be converted to bribery.
Apply at GS - they may have to replace some talent - as even merry weathers are a'changing to tempestous tiimes, or climes -corzin' the begin - of publicin'!

... so, we know AG used his last arrow, before he lost
the bow? ... and where we go from now? - let' s disavow
the rest of the constititution and elect to bestow - a court supreme - instead of popular voted "figure" head - sporting
the scheme - of getting re-legated to the "Tallahasse" cream, of Floridian dream -TEAM!

Bananas 'R MI(ami) cb-3

SHIFTY (12/06/00; 18:23:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 43114)
silvercollector
Firearms companies
STURM RUGER & CO INC. Trades as symbol RGR on NYSE.
The 60 month chart looks like they are in the Gold industry.

STURM RUGER & CO INC RGR NYSE
Last Sale: $ 8.375 Net Change: 0.0625
Today's High: $ 8.4375 Today's Low: $ 8.3125
Best Bid: N/A Best Ask: N/A
Volume: 35,500 Previous Close: $ 8.3125
Stock Type: Common Stock




$hifty

JavaMan (12/06/00; 18:21:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 43113)
(No Subject)
NBC news, tonight, said people in the mid-west are paying 54% more to heat with natural gas than they did this time a year ago. While that represents a substantial increase for the individual consumer, let's not forget that businesses that have to pay such an increase will, no doubt, pass some of it on to the consumer of their products. Just saw a weather map of the jet stream and its projected to dip all the way down to Texas for a while. Brrrr.

What's with gold lately? Seems like Greenspan's "hint" at dropping interest rates was heard by more people than just those in the stock market. It will be interesting to see if the price of gold gets whacked back down to the 260s again or maybe those days are behind us...



turkey hunter (12/06/00; 18:15:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 43112)
@ Silvercollector gun makers
Here are some.
Browning
Remington
Rugar
Winchester
Smith and Wesson
Colt

Pandagold (12/06/00; 17:49:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 43111)
High hopes
Dong Ah shares shine for shipwreck treasure
South Korea's bankrupt Dong Ah Construction says it has found a shipwreck, but cannot confirm reports it is a turn-of-the-century Russian vessel carrying gold worth 150 trillion won (about HK$970 billion).

Well, that's one way to keep your creditors quiet for a while

silvercollector (12/06/00; 17:37:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 43110)
Company search
Better still, does anyone know of a site that can search by company category?

Thanks.

silvercollector (12/06/00; 17:32:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 43109)
Firearms companies
Can anyone rifle off (pun intended) a list of firearms and weapons manufacturers.

To check the charts.

TIA,

silvercollector

Pandagold (12/06/00; 16:26:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43108)
The First Christmas present
The first Christmas present was GOLD. That was 2000 years ago. And it is still the best (material) one today. The other (non-material) one is LOVE. Give both for a perfect Christmas.

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/06/00; 15:47:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 43107)
Journeyman, and all interested in the monetary situation in Turkey
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_turkey.html
See the link above regarding the lira situation as it was in April 2000. Since then, one gold ounce has risen in local price by 20 million lira to 186,152,992 Turkish lira today.

Worth a second look from your post.......
---
*The Central Bank will raise interest rates
drastically, to stem the Dollar hemorrhage and retain
or bring in Dollars. The devaluation will wreck
savings, and the high interest rates will devastate the
productive structure*. *The Central Bank will continue
to invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills
paying less than 6%. Thus even the most severely
afflicted countries are financing the U.S. Government,
at a cost to themselves.*" -Hugo Salinas Price, The
spectres of Bretton Woods
---
Knowing, then, that such a policy unduly subjugates the health of a nation's international reserves to currency management policies implemented by others, one begins to see the beauty of the new euro-style structure of reserves held as gold which is regularly marked to market. It removes a significant discretionary element and uncertainty that currently rests in the self-serving hands of the nation issuing such paper being used as reserves. Go for the gold...a trend that is natural and unstoppable now that a viable post-Bretton Woods structure has finally been unveiled.

Randy

CoBra(too) (12/06/00; 15:15:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 43106)
- It was only a day ...
...Away ...
from great prices missed,
by fractions
as "Algae", pissed
out the attractions
of sub(s)lime rates
as he debates
reactions!

Well, excuse me, as I was trying to defend the real purpose of the veiled greenspeak, lately, l have to come to the conclusion that I've been right. Though, in the sense that AG's warnings were only directed towards the banking establishment! Well, after all, what else could you expect - from the FED, the banker's last resort, and for ever forget IMF, World Bank and now recently BIS - as mere puppets to the prolonged reserve currency ploy of the fiat-buck - staving off the ever growing risks to the system!

Still, at times, I'd given him all the credit in fine-tuning the difference between real- and virtual growth, malinvestment and real productivity enhancement and foremost adequate, though measured supply of liquidity to
ensure further (real) growth, has by far outstripped any istorical measure.

Mr. AlGae, instead, reliquified the Oct. crash of 1987, some even say he was the catalyst for this near debacle - though then it was blamed to computers, or better fund managers afraid of having computers beat their performance - tied to "indexing"! At least these guy's have seen their limits ...though, will they ever accept it? - CNBC's Ron, Maria, Paul ... leads me to believe " in corpore sana in corporations insana", judging from today's debt/equity ratio (quick ratio in my time as a trainee) .. most of corporate (including private - dis-savings - 0.8% - probably of not disposable (in-) come) are under water and so are banks ... (better informed analysts have spelled it out) - and not only junk ... No, the cataclysmic collapse of
120 Trillion of derivative RISK - and no more counterparties!

And as it may
has been your last day
in the sun
M r. Greenspun!

Enjoy,
as Hoi Poloi
the joy
of best BOY!

As it's history
which will see
judging you,
fair and true!

So...
... Today, we'll spend our $'s ,
as there are no tomorrows -
- Is that what Greenspan meant?
... at the end ... He bent,
more than any gent ...

No, no limericks for a g ...

PS: Out of context: though remember - AMI go home -
-in context Al's go home ... and leave politics and
markets - ALONE!! - Thank you - cb2

Journeyman (12/06/00; 15:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 43105)
Turkey's Future -- Another victim of the dollar @ALL

TURKEY'S FUTURE:

Consider the following paragraphs excerpted from the article on
Turkey's crisis posted yesterday (link in header.) The two
paragraphs below, separated from each other by about half of the
article, tell an interesting story:

"The central bank governor said over the weekend he had
$18.8 billion to use, [to defend the Turkish lira] down
from $21.583 billion on November 24 and $24.433 billion
before the crisis set in." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in
key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec.
4, 2000

And from an earlier paragraph in the same story:

"In Ankara, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team
began talks on a loan, possibly $4-5 billion, to ease a
dramatic liquidity squeeze now threatening to demolish
Turkey's anti-inflation programme." -Hatice Aydogdu,
Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues,
Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And yet another relevant paragaraph from same Reuters story:

"If the two sides fail to agree a Supplementary Reserve
Facility (SRF), a short-term loan at higher interest
rates, or talks drag on, Turkey could be forced to
abandon a crawling peg currency and devalue." -Hatice
Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil
continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

Now compare the situation in Turkey as described by these Reuters
paragraphs with "dollar tyranny" described in the Salinas piece
from the Mexican site, link posted last week:

"As soon as exports of any one country seem to fade,
the speculative sharks begin to circle. The currency is
deemed "overvalued". A devaluation is at hand. The
Central Bank can cast away all its accumulated Dollars
in defense of its currency, but in vain. The
speculators are stronger than any Central Bank. The
currency must fall in value, and then will be weaker
because the Central Bank has no reserves left. -Hugo
Salinas Price, The spectres of Bretton Woods,
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/salinas9.htm

Now once again from the Reuters article:

"Average overnight interbank rates, a good measure of
the general climate in money markets, reached 782.46
percent, down from 863.99 on Friday. But there was no
clear indication the upward trend of the last two weeks
had been broken." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF
talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

Now again consider the following from the Salinas article from
the Mexican web site:

*The Central Bank will raise interest rates
drastically, to stem the Dollar hemorrhage and retain
or bring in Dollars. The devaluation will wreck
savings, and the high interest rates will devastate the
productive structure*. *The Central Bank will continue
to invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills
paying less than 6%. Thus even the most severely
afflicted countries are financing the U.S. Government,
at a cost to themselves.*" -Hugo Salinas Price, The
spectres of Bretton Woods, http://www.plata.com.mx/
plata/salinas9.htm

The date on the article on Turkey is Dec. 4, 200. This means that
between November 24 and Dec. 4 (at the latest), the Turkish CB
blew $2.783 billion ($21.583 billion minus $18.8 billon)
defending the Turkish currency --- in 10 days (or less)!
If the burn rate stays the same,

1. How much longer would the Turkish Central Bank's remaining
$18.8 billion last? (Answer: 66 more days)

2. How long would the IMF $4-5 billion loan hold the line?
(Answer: Less than 20 days.)

Why the IMF plan will work <cynical smile>:

"I'm confident the peg will hold because the consequences of
allowing the peg to go, both in domestic and international terms,
are just too high," John Lomax of HSBC said." -Hatice Aydogdu,
Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec.
4, 2000

$1 - 618,400 Turkish lira. If you were in Turkey, would you want
to own gold?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I know, I know. It couldn't happen here.



Randy (@ The Tower) (12/06/00; 15:09:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 43104)
Bonds climb as investor sentiment shifts...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOi6giRatQm9uZHMg
[excerpt from Bloomberg]
New York, Dec. 6 -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note staged its best two-day rally in more than two years as stocks declined, and as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by the end of March.

"Bonds and cash (will) be the favored investment going forward because damage has been done" to the stock investor's psyche, said Steven Bohlin, who sold notes maturing in seven years from the $200 million he manages at Thornburg Investment in Santa Fe, New Mexico, to lock in gains. Investors are turning to Treasuries as they reassess stock market volatility, he said.
------------

And yet, there is a troubling U.S. balance of trade shortfall that does little to instill future confidence in the dollar's likelihood to maintain it's current high purchasing power. And what is a bond but a fancy lay-away program for buying future dollars. Methinks buying the international reserve asset called gold at 21-year lows is more prudent than buying dollars for future delivery--via bonds--at their current peak.

Hipplebeck (12/06/00; 14:21:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 43103)
Greenspan
I just got done reading the Greenspan speech, and my honest take is that he is feeling the effects of being ahead of the curve.
I think our friend Greenspan is starting to feel that little funny feeling down there in the bottom of the stomach that tells you something is going wrong.
We have known for awhile he is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He knows ahead of most what is going to happen, and he is starting to feel the pressure.
Gyrations are not good in financial markets, and they make you look very incompetent.
Gyrations mean there is a loose wheel and it might even come off.
Gyrations are a very bad sign.
I just wish I could buy more gold than the few coins I can afford from time to time.

DaveC (12/6/2000; 13:39:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 43102)
YGM - 'Now I Sit Me Down In School'
Thanks. That was excellent. Put it out to my mailing list.


YGM (12/6/2000; 13:01:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 43101)
Worth Fowarding....
Teens Prayer....
'Now I Sit Me Down In School'
Poem Written By Arizona Teen

From Randy Fisher
12-5-00



ALL>>>
This was written by a teen in Bagdad, Arizona. It was sent to me in an e-mail.
...................................................

Now I sit me down in school Where praying is against the rule For this great nation under God Finds mention of Him very odd.
If Scripture now the class recites, It violates the Bill of Rights. And anytime my head I bow Becomes a Federal matter now.
Our hair can be purple, orange or green, That's no offense; it's a freedom scene. The law is specific, the law is precise. Prayers spoken aloud are a serious vice.
For praying in a public hall Might offend one with no faith at all. In silence alone we must meditate, God's name is prohibited by the state.
We're allowed to cuss and dress like freaks, And pierce our noses, tongues and cheeks. They've outlawed guns, but FIRST the Bible. To quote the Good Book now makes me liable.
We can elect a pregnant Senior Queen, And the 'unwed daddy,' our Senior King. It's "inappropriate" to teach right from wrong, We're taught that such "judgments" don't belong.
We can get our condoms and birth controls, Study witchcraft, vampires and totem poles. But the Ten Commandments are not allowed, No word of God must reach this crowd.
It's scary here, I must confess, When chaos reigns the school's a mess. So, Lord, this silent plea I make: Should I be shot; My soul please take!
Amen



wolavka (12/6/2000; 12:53:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 43100)
funds
Now they will start covering in a big way, could gap and move fast. merry xmas, christs birth, don't forget it!!!!!

Zenidea (12/6/2000; 12:36:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 43099)
Wolavka
Golds cooking :).... Ok off for some shut eye :)

wolavka (12/6/2000; 12:32:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 43098)
anybody want
300.00 gold tomorrow????????

wolavka (12/6/2000; 12:19:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 43097)
Dubya
I'm from Texasssssssssssssssssssss. and everything in texas is big, everything.

DAAAAAAAAAA Dubya Daaaaaaaaaaa Dubya.



Journeyman (12/6/2000; 12:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 43096)
In search of the universal "prediction" post @justamereBear, Hill Billy Mitchell, Randy, ORO?, ALL

Hi justamere!

"While I agree with the thrust of your predictions post of yesterday, I felt it was a bit all
encompassing. When the front of an automobile, travelling in a straight line at 90 degrees to an
immovable obstacle such as a brick wall, first touches the obstacle, the is a high degree of certainty
that the back of the car will slow to a stop soon." -justamereBear msg#: 43052

Agreed. And a good point.

BUT physical systems, where all the elements are PHYSICALLY connected together (as in the car you used as an example) are much more dependably predictable than are non-physical, largely symbolic systems such as the current financial "system" and its vehicles of all stripes. Has to do with kinematics --- which in physical systems is inextricably connected to inertia, inertia apparently being an inseparable characteristic of physical mass.

While it's tempting and sometimes useful to use the concepts of "momentum" and "inertia" with regards to the more symbolic systems, the symbolic-system/physical-system analogies can often be greatly misleading. In a sense that's why a truely free market CONVERTIBLE gold standard, (gold production being hampered -- or controlled if you wish -- by the physical limitations of mining, etc.) if you desire stability in pricing and exchange rates, is vastly superior to the current all-symbolic megabyte "Ptolemaic" financial system with its violent fluctuations (hampered -- or controlled if you wish -- only by the will and desires of money manufacturers.)

Being physically hampered isn't necessarily good. And in a sense, gold mining isn't completely. The heap-leach process is relatively new, for example. But when rapid changes adversely effect everyone and are largely unpredictable not only in timing but in location (who's next after Turkey and Argentina?) and degree, hampering is, IMO a very good thing. I am, of course, referring to the financial system, specifically to creating buying power, an excess of which leads to so-called "inflation," -- and differential rates of which in different countries lead to gyrating exchange rates.

Ahem. Sorry. Preaching again. Back to the topic at hand. Sometimes it's more accurate (and thus useful) to modify the physical-symbolic analogy. A pilot friend of mine describes helicopters as thousands and thousands of rapidly whirling parts flying in close formation. Envision the car with all the parts loosely connected with long rubberbands -- some of which may break. And depending how far they're stretched, perhaps the back end of the car careens off the road at right angles and down a long mountain slope and doesnt' come to a stop for a relatively long time. Or maybe the back hits the wall first!

A few related -- though un-integrated by me -- thoughts that may spark some thinking.

The predictability of NATURAL physical systems -- weather is a good example -- is not as certain as we commonly believe -- and predictions of such systems break down the further they are from the "present" because of the "chaotic" characteristics of "complex systems."

The most predictable physical systems, at least as far as location goes, are the more physically massive and thus include the most inertia. Such things as the movement of the planets is an example, probably somehow related, probabalistically at least, to the number of particles connected in them and "the theory of large numbers."

Also, artificially bounded systems, like honest dice, are the most dependably predictible -- especially from the "probabilistic" viewpoint mentioned by Greenspan. This is because, unlike the case in the "real world," the universe of possible outcomes is sharply limited.

Trying to cut post length so I'm gonna stop here.

Regards,
Journeyman


ORO (12/6/2000; 12:10:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 43095)
Quantitative note on oil-heating oil
The heating oil to crude oil ratio is now at 3.4 - much higher than the normal 3 - an increase of refiner margins on the order of 12% - or more than double the normal margin - this is an indicator of the market inducing refiners to stop maintenance operations and "get with it" making heating oil.



ORO (12/6/2000; 12:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 43094)
SteveH and HBM - a sampling from today
The psychology of the market has changed away from the momentum thinking of the past 5 years. The ramp up yesterday was net funded from ouside the markets - by someone like the Fed.

How do you see this? Had the funding come from within the markets, there should have been at least one major asset losing value as it is sold in order to purchase stock, and the seller moves elsewhere. The concurrent move in stocks and long bonds indicated where sellers of stock are putting their funds. 2/3 of the Nasdaq move was in the first 2 hours, and it remained flat from 12 to 3 pm, when the bond market closed. The bonds were absorbing a large portion of the seller's funds and when the bond market closed, the seller's numbers declined as they had nowhere to put their money but cash (which is still trash).

It seems that where money came from was from money market funds. But the decline in commercial paper and treasury bills which make up money funds was rather slight, and thus not a probable source for the bulk of the money, neither was gold, neither was it foreign buying that was a substantial source of funds that drove stocks up. So where did the money come from? Most likely from a combination of the following (in order of significance): investor's money market funds (early after the open and at the last hour), investment bank and speculative buying of futures (before the open and into the first hour, and during the investor selling at mid-day), arbitrage of the futures (open and at noon).

There is good indication that investor selling will continue today and that funds will flow into bonds and from bonds to real goods - gold etc.. I expect any new cash coming from the investment banks (i.e. the Fed) to move away from from the stock market as stock sellers do not seek fresh opportunities within the stock market, but seek new ones outside it.

Contrary to prior ramp up jobs, the current one is not going to pull momentum investment in. The "look back" background trend that is in the momentum investor's rearview mirror does not look good enough to reignite interest.



In the energy market there was the fall in active refining capacity which caused lesser draws on crude and lesser supply of heating oil. The refiners have been working at breakneck and delaying their maintenance operations. These refineries can not continue operation without maintenance indefinitely. Particularly not in the winter, where any bottleneck can cause the whole plant to stop as crude cools down and becomes a thick sticky goo.



Randy (@ The Tower) (12/6/2000; 12:05:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 43093)
Do these words, uttered yesterday by the Fed Chairman, fill you with waves of confidence?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2000/20001205.htm
Speech titled, "Structural changes in the economy and financial markets" delivered at the America's Community Bankers Conference, New York -- December 5, 2000

"For a long time, those who were advancing funds shared the sanguine expectations of those using the funds for rapid increases in profits and incomes, and credit and equity were available with unusually low risk spreads.

"During the past couple of years, however, the widespread optimism that was apparent in financial markets has given way to some reassessment of risks and opportunities. This process has been underway ever since the global financial crisis in the fall of 1998. That episode forced many market participants to recognize the potential for international risks to feed back on U.S. markets. Events brought into sharper focus the possibility that liquidity in many markets can dry up simultaneously when fear spurs risk aversion, and an intense, near-term focus on protecting capital values markedly elevates the demand for liquidity. Markets largely recovered from that episode, but an imprint was left in the form of wider credit spreads and more cautious behavior on the part of banks and other lenders.

"Recently, wariness about risk again has increased as default rates on less than investment-grade bonds have moved higher, debt downgrades have become more commonplace, and many high-flying dot-com ventures have collapsed. More broadly, equity market analysts have been revising down their near-term profit forecasts--with revisions occurring across a range of industries.

"As a consequence, stock prices this year have given back some of the extraordinary gains posted in recent years, risk spreads have widened appreciably in markets for lower-rated long-term and short-term credits, and--as I'll be discussing in more detail later--banks report that they have tightened terms and standards on business loans."
[...]
"In closing, the transition of the U.S. economy to a more sustainable supply-demand relationship is posing challenges for businesses, banks, and monetary policymakers. How well banks perform under these conditions will depend on their ability to continuously reevaluate previously held assumptions and adapt to change."
-----
Unlike peaches and dreams, gold does not spoil or fade over time.

Zenidea (12/6/2000; 11:59:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 43092)
Back again
Black Blade just saw your post re Au HK/China etc. The wife has a we business in HK and weve been to the special economic Zone Shenzhen. It weird to not see any Jewelry shops glittering with the bright yellow metal as contrasted with HK. Personaly my first impressions of Shenzhen is that the place is overrun with pickpockets and beggars but then again I might be bias, on the third attempt some shit nicked 5,000.00 from the wifes bag , Thank heavens I had just enough stashed in my front pocket to get back across the border. One cant feel the hand go in but can feel it coming out.
Gee actually I hope the Aussie $ stays where it is , I am happy complaining about it being where it is. The HK- AU$
exchange is kissable at the moment.
I heard a we rumour that there has been a we platinum find in Western Australia , have you heard anything Black Blade /
Topaz?. Incidentially Topaz like the name :)... I often went to a place in North Queensland just west of a place called Mount Surprise , about one kilometer past the one horse township turn right , follow all the signs that say tresspassers shot other with skulls and crossbones etc etc all with millions of bullet holes in them ( you will know your on the right track) just after the wet season, and you will find all the topaz in the world.
Sir Randy@ tower , bless your precious heart ! it works :)

CoBra(too) (12/6/2000; 11:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 43091)
@ Cavan Man
Sir CM, I'm as you know by now the worst short term indicator - or better contrary (s.t.) indicator!
And as some trader said - if you feel the urge to buy - sell! and vice versa - ... may be right short term ...

I just felt the urge to buy more - both physical and major, yes and some minor mines -long term - ...

Thanks to GWB and Algae, I've picked the one and only wrong day available - ...

Do I care? Yes, in a sense of being "Greenbushed"!
- how desperate can you get - Algae all over your face?
No, in a sense of accumulating value ... and a few percentage points are meaningless as the "Duck" performed yesteryears reminiscences in a day trade -
too late to reform old cb2 - regards ... so what, I've got some more gold at rock bottom ...


Randy (@ The Tower) (12/6/2000; 11:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 43090)
Not quite the "same ol' same old." Can you spot the sign of changing times?
http://www.futuresource.com/reg/cgi-bin/art?001206/072058
Baghdad--Dec. 6 (Bridge News)--Iraq is expected to accept the latest six-month extension of its oil-for-food deal with the United Nations. . . . The UN Security Council agreed on Tuesday to extend the program, under which sanctions-hit Iraq exports crude in return for humanitarian supplies, for six months and to streamline its vetting procedures to speed up delivery of supplies.
+
It also agreed in principle to release up to 600 million euros of Iraq's oil income in cash from the tightly controlled UN account to train and pay maintenance workers...
-----
Even the mightiest oak we see today was once a tiny acorn. Could the spreading roots collapse the foundation of YOUR financial house?

Zenidea (12/6/2000; 11:16:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 43089)
Hi all :)
Black Blade. (smiles) Yep I suspect A$ should tack along with gold , considering Au is one of the more significant
export earners here and she ( Au ) certainly looks like the labour pains are shortening. Geepers another hike upward just then.
Kicking myself to death over selling off the Pd, for a % and not haveing the patience come nerve to hang in there dispite the fundamentals.
Got a local family of ducks on the farmlet here to , Kookaburra's hence no snakes, Guinia Fowl , marron , heaps of different parrots , white and some red tailed cockatoos,
and occasionally if lucky one spots the superb blue or fairy wren At this altitude in the clear night sky's the stars are brilliant and often the missis and I sit outside watching the milky way on its move from our prospective dreaming about the simple life :).. but alas for the most part its back to the city lights to pay the bills.




ORO (12/6/2000; 11:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 43088)
SteveH - stocks
I was working on 3-4 other items at the same time, so I dropped the caveats and simplified the conclusions and discussions so that I could just send it out. The point I was making was that the Fed was concerned with bank viability more so than with price effects or exchange effects. The results of such shifts in concerns in the past have been to cause nominal consumption increases at the consumer level - both as hedges against the low "real" return on investment and for the purpose of plain "consume now - pay later". The basic industry sector will then find its order books filled as its customers in the consumer cyclical and staples arena start hoarding. These latter companies will face higher prices before the industrials do. Thus profit in this sector will grow with the drop in the dollar and the reflection of that in the tendency to hoard industrial commodities. This is the beginning of the "crack up boom" process.

This is not to say that price inflation adjusted stock values would rise, but it is an indication that particular sectors - moving down along the supply chain away from the consumer will perform positively. Particularly industries competing with global producers.

The process involves the release of funds needed by the banks through the purchase of treasuries by the Fed and friends (now there are no such friends). These are not wanted by the depositors at the banks and holders of financial assets, who promptly dispose of the funds in the market for goods. The result is a move from labor led pricing to resource based pricing. The funds not invested in the resource industries over the years will be invested when they demonstrate high profitability. It should be noted that the high dollar has had an outsize effect in both the supply and demand side of the developing nations: the "real" dollar burden forced the foreign producers to prefer dollars to their local currency, thus increasing supply. And put a payment burden on the consumer side where demand was squelched by the growth in the share of income going to defray government's dollar debt.

A low dollar will do the exact opposite - lower the burden on developing market consumers, and reducing the supply to the industrial world. That is what happened in the late 60s when Europe started consuming after decades of reconstruction, and in the 70s when Japanese did the same. The 150 million people who have joined the industrial economy over the past 20 years in South East Asia, now have another 150 million Indians, 200 million Chinese, and 70 million (or so) South Americans to join them. Easing the dollar debt burden on them would make it possible for them to consume and reinvest locally a greater portion of their production.

I am not forecasting a US stock market rally, but I am pointing out that some resource stocks and basic industry stocks will do well.

Besides this, some stocks are just plain dirt cheap.

I hope this clears up things some.



SHIFTY (12/6/2000; 11:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 43087)
Gold Cabal
Could it be that Goldman Sachs and friends would love to bomb the gold price today but..... too many people know what they are up to and are watching?

$hifty

Cavan Man (12/6/2000; 10:42:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 43086)
Trail Guide
I've been wanting to ask the following question. Had a minute before flying off....

I think I remember you saying you became an acquaintance of Another (aka, FOA) sometime after the '87 crash. I believe at that time you said and I paraphrase, there was a realization of how a US equity market convulsion could impact large, dollar holders. Since that time, we have seen an enormous bull market and stock valuations increase significantly relative to historic valuation norms.

Now, if you are a smart equity trader like a certain stranger I know, you possibly have and might continue to understand such a dynamic and profit from it. Alas, poor CM is not so smart.

My question is this (and I ask in the context of an inquisitor who does believe the volatility we witness in US equity markets is not normal although perhaps a profitiable dynamic to leverage if you have the skill): what do your friends think now, today; of the movements of equity values in US markets? Thanks....CM

beesting (12/6/2000; 10:37:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 43085)
$273.90 And Rising!
http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.asp
So We Crashed The Gate Doing 98, Let Those Goldhearts Roll!
Goldfly are you out there?
.....beesting.

SHIFTY (12/6/2000; 10:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 43084)
Kitco Chart
Looking good
Up Up and Away

$hifty

tedw (12/6/2000; 10:28:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43083)
Test
http://www.usagold.com
test

tedw (12/6/2000; 10:28:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 43082)
Platinum, Palladium
http://www.usagold.com

Black Blade

The merits of gold vs. gold mining shares has been discussed on this forum many times.

I notice you posting about Stillwater. What is your opinion of North American Palladium (PDL.TO)?

tedw (12/6/2000; 10:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 43081)
Platinum, Palladium
http://www.usagold.com

Black Blade

The merits of gold vs. gold mining shares has been discussed on this forum many times.

I notice you posting about Stillwater. What is your opinion of North American Palladium (PDL.TO)?

tedw (12/6/2000; 10:26:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 43080)
Platinum, Palladium
http://www.usagold.com

Black Blade

The merits of gold vs. gold mining shares has been discussed on this forum many times.

I notice you posting about Stillwater. What is your opinion of North American Palladium (PDL.TO)?

USAGOLD (12/6/2000; 9:43:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 43079)
We have two messages for our clientele this morning:
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
We have two messages for our clientele this morning:

First, if you are thinking about The
Gift of Gold, we ask you to act
quickly. We have had a very strong
response to our jewelry offer already
and we want to make sure we get
everyone taken care of. Please don't
wait until the fifteenth and then
inundate us. I know that most of my
male counterparts are like I am and
wait 'til the very last moment to do
their Christmas shopping. (I used to
do mine on Christmas Eve!) Try to
overcome that seemingly innate and
instinctive approach to the Season
and order now. If you don't get that
order in soon, you'll be forced to
the mall jewelry store and all that
it implies, i.e., higher prices,
crowds, pushy shoppers, phony
Christmas cheer... . . the works. Do
it the easy way this year. Just
contact Marie at 800-869-5115 and
she will make it easy for you. To
get an idea what's available, click on the Gift of Gold link at top of page.

Second, we are almost sold out of
the Dutch Kings, a
couple nice sized orders and they
will be gone. If you have an interest
in these items, we encourage you to
order as soon as feasible. Remember
the Confederatios!! For more info, please click atop this message.



wolavka (12/6/2000; 8:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 43078)
diversify
beans, limit up soon

Chrusos (12/6/2000; 8:03:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 43077)
Digital Money & Its Impact On Gold
http://www.gold.org/Gra/Pr/RS24.pdf
Interesting study for cognoscenti - commissioned by the World Gold Council.

Best wishes to all

wolavka (12/6/2000; 8:03:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 43076)
Remember Pearl Harbor
We shall sink the U.S. Dollar !! Bye dollar hello yellow..

DaveC (12/6/2000; 8:00:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 43075)
From my online broker
Due to extremely high volatility, all orders for Natural Gas futures and options are currently being accepted on a not-held basis. In addition, all cancel replace orders must be taken to the market.

To the moon Alice!

DaveC (12/6/2000; 7:57:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 43074)
Gold and other musings
Gold for Feb delivery must break 274.50 on a closing basis.

Easy Al has been raising rates and making money easy, just more expensive.

Will he now begin to lower rates and makes money more restrictive?

He is a real dichotomy.


Black Blade (12/6/2000; 7:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 43073)
Can Hold NG Down!
http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtml
Unbelievable! Straight line upward! What's that you say Cheeta? No inflation? Yeah, Right!

Natural Gas 8.7 +1.316 +17.82 %
Heating Oil 1.017 +0.0404 +4.14 %
Crude Oil 30.14 +0.61 +2.07 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.777 +0.0148 +1.94 %

NG back down to $8.30, and now Crude is coming to life on weakened US Dollar.


wolavka (12/6/2000; 7:43:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 43072)
Chicago Bears
fire head coach. Hire new oriental head coach.

Win Won Soon.

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 7:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 43071)
NG Rocketing!!!
NG Powered Rocket!

Natural Gas 8.43 +1.046 +14.17 %
Heating Oil 1.017 +0.0404 +4.14 %
Crude Oil 30.14 +0.61 +2.07 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.777 +0.0148 +1.94 %

Now this is just getting plain scary!

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 6:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 43070)
China cleans up gold trade ahead of WTO entry
http://www.asiawise.com/mainpage.asp?mainaction=31&newsfeedid=303585§ionid=§ionname=


Reuters
5 Dec 2000 17:38 (GMT +08:00)
By Kathleen Kearney

HONG KONG, Dec 5 (Reuters) - China's ongoing crackdown on corruption and smuggling has caught the precious metals trade in its net and the exercise is digging deeper than previous efforts, gold industry sources in Hong Kong said. But most maintain the volumes of illicit gold shipments to China via Hong Kong and Shenzhen have fallen dramatically in recent years. Talk of the most recent crackdown has circulated in the Hong Kong gold market in recent weeks, but there has been no official announcement of any new operation. Officials contacted at the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China, the central bank and the entity responsible for all of China's authorised gold imports, declined to comment on the crackdown rumours. "This one is more serious than in the past because of China's entry into WTO," said Desmond Wong, senior manager at Standard London (Asia) in Hong Kong. "The government has to do something to show that they are trying to stop this smuggling." The timing is important. In conjunction with its entry into the WTO, Beijing is taking steps to liberalise the gold industry. In November, it announced plans to set up a national gold exchange for physical gold trade among commercial banks by the end of the year.

BULLION ENTREPOT

Hong Kong's historic trade figures suggest this Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China should be sinking under a mountain of gold. In 1999, Hong Kong imported 120 tonnes of gold and officially re-exported just 11 tonnes: consumption 109 tonnes. In 1998, it imported nearly 232.5 tonnes and re-exported less than 25 tonnes: consumption 207.5 tonnes. The peak seems to have been in 1997, when the SAR imported more than 434 tonnes but re-exported just 7.5 tonnes: consumption a whopping 427 tonnes. By contrast, Taiwan imported 84.2 tonnes of gold in 1999, equal to 3.66 grams per person for its population of 23 million. "Hong Kong is a transhipment center and the imports in the last few years have been quite a lot, but not like in the good old days," said Emily Li, manager of the World Gold Council's office in Hong Kong. "The market cannot absorb that big an amount so it would go onward to other markets in the surrounding area," Li said. The Hong Kong figures suggest an enormous unclassified gold trade with its neighbors. "The international houses are not involved, but each party participates in a certain part of the operation and they don t want to ask questions about the next part," one banker based in Hong Kong said. "But there is no way of stopping those people taking it to the secondary market," he added. But if this year's trade figures are any indication, China's two-year (1998-99) clampdown on smuggling has had a dramatic impact on Hong Kong's gold trade. In the first eight months of 2000, Hong Kong imported about 51 tonnes of gold and re-exported 18.5 tonnes. That equals consumption of about 32.5 tonnes for the territory's 6.6 million and its 12 million visitors or just 1.75 grams per person.

LEGAL IMPORTS

Gold and other precious metals have not figured in the biggest smuggling cases this year. Goods involved in the three billion yuan (US$360 million) smuggling scandal in Xiamen involved chiefly smuggled firearms, cars and crude oil. "Cases of gold smuggling are very rare," said Peter Tiu, senior information officer for the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department. The Hong Kong authorities have a close working relationship with Shenzhen Special Economic Zone customs officials and meet frequently to assess operations and "exchange intelligence", Tiu said. The Hong Kong side had not been informed of any ongoing crackdown on precious metals, he added. Beijing has been taking steps to fill the gap between domestic demand of about 200 tonnes a year and production at about 175 tonnes a year. In June, the People's Bank entered into an agreement with South African investment bank Investec to buy a minimum of 15 tonnes of gold a year. The central bank already has a two-year-old agreement with UBS Warburg to take gold on consignment. The gold is shipped via Hong Kong to the PBOC's Shenzhen branch. Neither party has disclosed the amounts in the agreement, but it is believed to be about 12 tonnes a year. In addition, in the past two years China has brought the domestic gold price more in line with the international price. The People's Bank of China adjusts the domestic price of gold on a more frequent basis than previously, thus preventing a large price differential, and speculative opportunity, from opening up, traders said. The domestic price has been adjusted about 10 times this year, said Y.H. Chan, manager at Po Sang Bank in Hong Kong. "The current price is 73.50 yuan per gram, or US$276.12 per ounce, excluding value added tax," Chan said. That price, while higher than international spot prices, is not sufficiently high to entice smugglers, traders said. (US$ = 8.28 yuan)

Black Blade: It would be nice to say "Over 1 billion served" and not be referring to some gray meat on a sesame seed bun. Sales by the end of the year - Hmmmm……… Why smuggle that barbarous relic ;-)


Hill Billy Mitchell (12/6/2000; 6:45:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 43069)
SteveH and ORO
My take on the equities market:

Greenspans speech was the opposite of the "irrational exuberance" speech. It should be called the "irrational despondancy" speech.

I do not buy the accepted line that this market has been gyrating with the swings in the election uncertainty. I do not discount that the fact that uncertainty does not effect the market however this market for quite some time and especially since November 7 has been reacting to basic economic fact when one factors out the efforts of the PPT which have been orchestrated in such a way as to appear to be a result of the psychological hopes that the resolution of the presidential contest has finally arrived.

When Greenspan made his now famous "irrational exuberance" speech he moved the market in much the same way as he did yesterday only the opposite direction. If I recall the impact of his speech was short lived. I believe that the main reason the effects of that speech were short-lived was because they were only words and were not backed up with any action whatsoever.

He has no plans of backing up yesterday's speech with actions. I believe that he is very fearful that this economy is laced with the arsenic of latent inflation. He knows that the arsenic is a result of his own actions.

We are about to see this market resume its march down the road of reality. As the numbers come in the market is going to react to them. Those in the know have already removed the wealth that they cannot afford to loose from the market. The big time market makers and gamblers will be in there to the last trying to wring out the last ounce of flesh. Very few of these types will escape financial disaster.

The affects of the "irrational despondency" speech read from a prepared script yesterday will soon dissappear into oblivion. IMNSHO

HBM


wolavka (12/6/2000; 6:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 43068)
memories
Winter must be cold for those with no warm memories. (an affair to remember)

We are not meant to be alone.

get some gold reestablish the memories!

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 5:59:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 43067)
US Dollar Getting Wobbly!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Currencies rising against the US Dollar - even the Aussie Peso! Musta been the vegamite. Right Topaz and Zenidea?

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 5:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 43066)
Oil and Gold Book? and RE: Rockgrabber
http://go-here.to/secret_history

I stumbled across this at the above link. Someone here post this before? Down-loadable book entitled: Secret History of the Oil Companies in the Middle East, probably something that Another and FOA/TG have referred to in the past. I got me some reading to do.

- Black Blade

Rockgrabber: Yes, it is sad, however, the US and the rest of the world had fair warning and over 30 years to prepare. They just squandered the opportunity, and now it's time to "pay the piper." That's what happens when one procrastinates. Now, I think I'll crack a beer - only going outside in a while to whack some ducks and geese. Cheers!




wolavka (12/6/2000; 5:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 43065)
Buy gold
now.

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 5:43:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 43064)
"Iraq Bans Reselling Oil to Enemies"
Source: Peoples Beijing Daily


Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has been authorized to take a harsh action toward foreign countries or companies which resell Iraq's oil to its enemies, the official Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported on Saturday, December 2. The decision was made at a cabinet meeting chaired by the Iraqi president on Saturday. In the case, any foreign countries or oil companies, which are proved to resell Iraq's crude to its enemies, will be put on "a black list" and be forbidden from acquiring Iraq's oil again or doing business with the UN sanctions-hit country, the INA said. Iraq has been under UN sanctions ever since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Under the oil-for-food deal in 1996, Iraq is allowed to export 2.4 million barrels of oil a day in exchange for humanitarian goods.

Iraq's latest move seems to be primarily directed against the United States, which has been regarded by Iraq as its number one enemy for blocking the lift of the U.N. sanctions. A recent report by the US Department of Energy said that American oil companies, directly or indirectly, bought an average of 725,000 barrels of Iraqi oil a day last year, accounting for 7.3 percent of the US oil imports. Iraq's oil has been exported via two main outlets: Ceyhan, Turkey in the north and Iraq's southern port city of Al-Baker. Iraq has intensified its anti-sanctions efforts this year and has taken numerous moves to challenge the UN Sanctions Committee which is dominated by the US and Britain. This could be manifested by another decision taken by the cabinet meeting to upgrade the Saddam International Airport, which was reopened on August 17 in defiance of the air embargo insisted by the US and Britain. The international airport has become dilapidated after a closure of 10 years.

Black Blade: Ah Shucks!


SteveH (12/6/2000; 5:31:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 43063)
ORO and comment
Oro,

I read your comments from yeseterday. I was slightly confused by your conclusion. You seemed to say (or so I read) that the market (other than .dot coms and tele(coms) were poised for a come back. Then you concluded that the dollar was not backed by gold-faith any longer and to watch out. I see the upswing yesterday as a a wild gyration in a system out of homeostasis(sp?). In other words, the NASDAQ is vibrating more and more out of control, until...pooof...it breaks. My friend Roger (a PhD in vibrational mechanics)used to tell me, "Steve, vibration is the worst enemy of anything mechanical. The more there are vibrations the quicker something will break."

No wonder a record setting day happened yesterday on the Duck. It has record down days then a record up day. This fits Roger's observtion closely. The winds are rocking the Duck bridge and there are cars on it. The harmonics are stress the entire structure.

I read the other day a great description of the Duck (not to mix metaphors). The poster said that the Duck was like the Rock rolling down a steep hill that just hit a jutting boulder, glancing high into the air, with no friction of the ground to slow its regain of downward movement.

This morning we find ourselves with yet another profit warning of a major computer manufacturer (Apple) and the Duck futures (as well as DOW and S&P) are below fair value.

Getting back to vibration. The gold market appears to be a market that was getting wider and wider swings, but is now being held in vibrational check by fingers pressing both sides of the market. If either side let's go their pressure point, the market will (like the Duck) break free and start to swing wildly until it too breaks. Do you hear the sound of the high-pitched vibrations caused by these market pressures? I do.

Rockgrabber (12/6/2000; 5:13:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 43062)
WWOOPPS ITS UP 10%
ITS ripping right now!! AHHA Blake Blade you must have a beer cracked for this one!! Cheers to you. (actually this is sad, but I am laughing anyhow)

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 5:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 43061)
Petroleum Moving Higher this Morning - NG over $8.00!
http://www.piwpubs.com/gasprice.shtml
NG BLASTS PAST $8.00 Mbtu!

Natural Gas 8.03 +0.646 +8.75 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.7685 +0.0063 +0.83 %
Crude Oil 29.75 +0.22 +0.75 %
Heating Oil 0.976 -0.0006 -0.06 %

Check out the link above for local NG prices near you!

Rockgrabber (12/6/2000; 5:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 43060)
Natural Gas Up another 7%
Tonights Natural Gas price is up another 7%. This one here seems to be pure supply and demand. No reserves in this one I dont think. And they are suggesting the coldest coldsnap to hit the midwest in 6 years next week. Lets see just how much money has been created out there?? How much will people be willing to pay to stay comfortable?? Looks like it is going to have to be alot.

For the best inflation scenario they can get, they want to have as high of a stock evaluations as possable I am sure. People must feel they can afford this cost of energy to actually pay it.

Canuck (12/6/2000; 5:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 43059)
@ Cavan Man
For weeks/months refineries were running 95%/96% indictating flat out.

Last week's 91.8% is a significant drop. Gasoline in my area gas dropped 12% when it has been suggested that gasoline will soar due to refinery shift from 'gasoline' (in the summer) to 'heating oil'.

There is more to this than meets the eye.

The oil drop on Iraq (production halt) and a further drop (resumption) is evidence of this.

BB suggests that oil climb may resume if OPEC cuts production in Jan. (I have only heard no more production) and obviously oil is dropping now due to receding economy.

So, where is oil heading? Anyone's GUESS.

And throw in the unknown political agenda and the guess becomes more clouded, IMHO.

The bottom line here is it's not making much sense as alluded by Randy earlier.

Thanks

wolavka (12/6/2000; 4:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 43058)
The plan
Hold gold down long enough and bankrupt /force industry into elite few.

Run the price short term upside and you've got'um, hold it down and you've got 'um. asl etc.

end of story.

Topaz (12/6/2000; 3:49:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 43057)
Black Blade
I think I've met your Mr Kosegin.
He tried to sell me a container load of Rusky rifles - Semi-autos, The deal was to sell them to the gov't during the gun buy-back here. 900% profit on $20K. Piked out though - luckily! prolly wouldna delivered!!

Topaz (12/6/2000; 3:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 43056)
Guilded opinion
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/vanEedenGold.html
Having just now had a chance to read Mr van Eedens tome at the above link. Tks Randy!
What struck me, in light of DavidG's 1 megaton above ground guesstimate, was:- the "inflation rate" of Gold, ie: Gold is being "inflated" at (say) 2500 TPA on a 1 MT base - an inflation rate of .25%.
If DG's stats are anywhere near correct, perhaps leasing Gold @ 1% pa in specie interest makes good economic sense IMO.

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 3:16:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 43055)
Oh, to be a fly on the wall....
The following is probably not a too overly fictitious account of the PGM trade:

The Russians have been in a hard currency crunch and have sold off most anything of value, even before the "Russian Bonds" default not so long ago. Add to this the pervasive corruption and new Russian-style capital cronyism and organized crime in the new Russian economy, and you have the potential for some interesting situations. The following is a typical phone conversation that could be expected between Mr. Ivan Kosegin, a minor Russian finance minister in charge of international PGM exports and Mr. Yoshido, a minor manager in charge of TOCOM PGM derivatives. The names have been changed - not necessarily to protect the innocent - because there are no innocents here:

Yoshido: "Ivan, how are you my friend?"

Kosegin: " I am quite fine, and how are you?"

Yoshido: "I am also doing well. The reason I am calling you is because my superiors are pressing me to know when you are going to deliver the 15,000,000 ounces of palladium and platinum that we contracted for over a year ago."

Kosegin: "Don't worry Yoshido, I will get on it next month."

Yoshido: "But you said that last month, and the month before that. We had to default on our contracts once already, and it could be a really big problem if we do that again. I hate to be a bother, but I reeeally need to know when we will get the metal delivered. Our biggest client Sushi Motors is running out of palladium for auto catalysts, and they will be completely out in a couple of weeks - then my ass in on the line. It is unfortunate, but they wish to take delivery starting next week. If I don't deliver, Sushi Motors will make Sushi out of me! Come on Ivan, this isn't funny anymore. I'm on the hook for 15,000,000 ounces of palladium!"

Kosegin: "Look my friend, don't worry, it is just a little problem with the paper work. You know, export licenses….that kind of thing. Call me next month"

Yoshido: "You have been saying that for months now Ivan. I'm running out of time. If I don't get that palladium, Sushi Motors will have to stop production, the workers will riot, palladium prices will soar, the TOCOM will be exposed as a fraud, and I will go to prison."

Kosegin: "May I suggest that you don't bend over to pick up the soap?"

Yoshido: "Huh?"

Kosegin: "OK, bad joke, look - I'm going to come clean with you. We haven't had any palladium or platinum for years. Some former Soviet ministers and some Cosak Crime bosses raided the Gokhran and Norilsk Nickel stockpiles. There just isn't any metal left - none, zippo, nada."

Yoshido: "WHAT!!!, What the hell do you mean that there isn't any metal left! What the F*&% happened?"

Kosegin: "Hey, don't get testy with me you little shrimp! You wanted me to sell you contracts, so I sold you contracts, why I got a mountain of contracts"

Yoshido: "Look you Bloody Barbarian Cosak, you are supposed to have the metal on hand to back up those contracts! What hell happened to all that Palladium and Platinum you said you had?"

Kosegin: "I don't know, my superiors said something about defaulted Russian Bonds, IMF, and need hard currency right now, and besides………. Hey, you sold those same contracts to others like Sushi Motors. Looks like you got a problem there. Whoever expected that anyone would actually want to take delivery? I've been selling contracts to lots of people. Besides, I only sell contracts and some black market Stolichnya, I don't sell metals, selling metals is someone else's job"

Yoshido: (unintelligible)

Kosegin: "Say, want to buy some more?"

Yoshido: (click)

Kosegin: "Hello?"



Rockgrabber (12/6/2000; 3:00:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 43054)
Did Gold actually trade over 300,000 contracts in one day?
Gold did actually trade over 300,000 contracts the otherday didint it?? I thought that must have been a typo, but it was not is it? Who sold all those contracts?? Who the heck would get in the way of that many contracts. Man if that was not a day that gold was held back, I might never see one, but then again we seem to be treated to more treats all along the way here then I could ever believe.

Trail guide I am glad you have shared the plan. Cause if I would not have read all your posts I would have no physical(or harldy any), and I would be watching what is going on so lost, I could not even comprehend this. But manipulation, now that makes sense. That explains alot about this Gold deal.

Black Blade (12/6/2000; 2:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 43053)
Higher Oil and Gas Prices.
NG on it's way to $8.00+/Mbtu. In spite of an increase in distillate inventories, the crude inventory picture still looks tight as much of the "in transit" SPR oil has left the US. The unexpected inventory increase in crude over the last two weeks is attributable to SPR oil that was locked-up in loading facilities and for some reason, was included in Crude oil inventories. NG is listed at official prices of around $7.60/Mbtu, yet the NG open-marketers sell NG at varying prices and sometimes at the rate of tens of dollars per Mbtu (example – southern California).

Natural Gas 7.625 +0.241 +3.26 %
Crude Oil 29.72 +0.19 +0.64 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.762 -0.0002 -0.03 %
Heating Oil 0.97 -0.0066 -0.68 %

Even Cheeta (AG) today said that higher petroleum costs are an inflationary threat and that there is a risk of spill-over into the economy. Give that "Man" a banana!


justamereBear (12/6/2000; 1:51:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 43052)
Randy Journeyman

Randy
Your post, in which you said, "as living creatures, when cold, are we not glad to put on a coat in our time of need, never once requiring a quote of current market resale price to appreciate or benefit from its wealth value"

I have not seen, put in words, a better explaination of my feelings, than those contained in this post. I know there is no real other way of discussing the value of gold than in comparison with the dollar, but it seems so many people just want to make more dollars, and I find that somewhat sad, in light of my view of the future.

Journeyman
Hi There my friend.
While I agree with the thrust of your predictions post of yesterday, I felt it was a bit all encompassing. When the front of an automobile, travelling in a straight line at 90 degrees to an immovable obstacle such as a brick wall, first touches the obstacle, the is a high degree of certainty that the back of the car will slow to a stop soon.

Best regards
j'Bear



Black Blade (12/6/2000; 0:43:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 43051)
API Oil and Distillate Update - NG Supplies Getting Tighter and Demand Especially Strong!
--NY Jan crude down 43c; continues dive despite API stock drop
--NY Jan crude down 48c, continues dive before API data
--NY Jan heating oil down 121 points as API stockpiles climb
--NY Jan gasoline down 22 points as API stockpiles rise
--API: US crude stocks down 3.729 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US distillate stocks up 3.289 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US gasoline stocks up 3.239 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US refineries operate at 93.0% in latest wk vs 91.8%
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.12 mln bpd vs 8.29 mln
--APIs imply US distillate demand 3.68 mln bpd vs 3.83 mln
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.12 mln bpd vs 8.29 mln

By Karyn Peterson, John Troland and Peter Rosenthal, BridgeNews
New York--Dec. 5--NYMEX energy futures fell in overnight Access trade
as American Petroleum Institute data showed much-larger-than-expected
gains last week of 3.289 million barrels in distillates, which include
heating oil and diesel fuel, and 3.239 million barrels in gasoline
inventories. The builds overshadowed a surprising decline of 3.729 million barrels in crude.

API also reported that U.S. refinery rates rose 1.2 basis points of
capacity, far exceeding expectations that runs would rise 0.3-0.7 a point. At 1719 ET, NYMEX nearby Jan WTI crude was down 30 cents at $29.23 a barrel, after trimming some earlier after-market losses, when it hit a low of $28.95 just ahead of the data. Jan heating oil was down 146 points at 96.20c a gallon and Jan gasoline was down 22 points at 76.00c a gallon.

Black Blade: Refinery capacity is edging up as a few refineries shutdown for required maintenance. Most refineries have not taken scheduled maintenance during this period of higher profit margins. Crude stockpiles have dropped sharply while distillates rose. More important is that the Brent North Sea oil fell within the price band set by OPEC, and now the clock is reset – there will definitely be more production increases until the price of oil exceeds $28.00/bbl for 20 consecutive trading days. Couple that with plans for OPEC production cuts in January to offset expected slowdown in petroleum and petroleum product use in the second quarter. More important that oil, which is not necessarily in a supply deficit, is Natural Gas, as follows:

By Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews New York--Dec. 5--December natural gas for next day delivery was strong across the board amid robust demand caused by cold weather in several key consuming regions.

NYMEX Jan Henry Hub natural gas futures settled down 4.9 cents at $7.384 per MMBtu after matching its new all-time high of $7.950 early in the session. The market was pressured by moderating forecasts, a massive sell-off in the crude oil market and long liquidation ahead of another increase to natural gas margins at Tuesday's close. Meanwhile, cash prices was strong across the board with New York citygate prices hitting the $23 mark and Topock trading as high as $28 per MMBtu. "Cash is trading 30 cents over the screen," one cash trader said. "You have to recognize that's not hype in the market--that's real demand." U.S. Gulf natural gas traded at $7.81 to $8.30 per MMBtu, up 37 to 78 cents from Monday's $7.03 to $7.93 range. Midcontinent natural gas traded at $7.75 to $8.38 per MMBtu, up 74 to 76 cents from Monday's $7.01 to $7.62 range Western gas traded in a range from $7.44 to $28.00 per MMBtu, up 56 cents to $5.00 from Monday's $6.88 to $23.00 range. In Canada, day gas at Nova's AECO-C Hub traded in a range of C$9.95 to $10.65 per gigajoule compared to Monday's C$9.40 to $10.18 range. TransCanada reported Alberta line-pack at 13.674 bcf, with the pipeline drafting at a rate of 75 MMcf/d. Colder-than-usual
weather has been a frequent visitor to the eastern United States the past few weeks. The cold has spurred periods of stronger-than-usual natural gas, heating oil and coal consumption. However, that tendency will end with the current episode under way. Most of the colder weather bias will shift west by this time next week, bringing the eastern states a break in strong fuel demand, according to Bridge Global Weather Services.

Black Blade: I only add that there is no SPR for NG, imports are extremely unlikely, exploration and production from new fields require a lot of time and the building of delivery infrastructure. Get extra blankets and start chopping wood!



Black Blade (12/6/2000; 0:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 43050)
PGM supplies tight despite official sales.
NY Precious Metals Review: PGMs down after Monday rally New York--Dec. 5--NYMEX Jan platinum futures settled down $14.7 at $607.4 per ounce Tuesday amid profit-taking, more than giving back all of Monday's gains. Mar palladium settled down $12.0 at $868.0 per ounce, only trimming Monday's hefty advance that brought the contract to an all-time high. Gold and silver held range-bound, unshaken by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's equity-market bullish speech.

OF INTEREST: US DLA sold 5,313.48 oz palladium on Monday New York--Dec. 5--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency sold a total of 5,313.48 troy ounces of palladium from its Web site sales Monday.

FULL: Stillwater Mining gets up to $250 mln financing New York--Dec. 5--Stillwater Mining Co. received a total of $250 million in credit facilities of varying terms from TD Securities (USA) Inc. Stillwater said the financing was made possible by several long-term contracts the company received, resulting in its minimum floor prices being raised through 2010. --Anthony Kurian, BridgeNews

US DLA sold 57,836 oz palladium during November New York--Dec. 5--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency announced Tuesday the aggregated November platinum group metals sales results. During November, the DLA sold 57,836 oz of palladium for an overall value of approximately $45.6 million.

Europe Precious Metals Review: PGMs hold on highs in thin trade London--Dec. 5--Spot platinum and palladium remained steady on the recent highs Tuesday although volumes continued to be thin throughout the morning session. Sources said profit-taking is possible with the entry of the U.S. market this afternoon, however, with buying interest likely to be less frequent near-term. Gold meanwhile held relatively steady as the market benefited from the fresh impetus in the rest of the complex

Black Blade: PGM stockpiles in Russia are essentially gone. There is none left. Now the users of PGMs are milking every possible source. The US Strategic Defense stockpile (US Defense Logistics Agency) is running low. The pressure on PGMs could ease a bit as auto-makers are cutting back production due to the slowing economy. Equities prices in the auto industry have fallen like lead balloons over the last few months and should continue to do so. The real story in the PGM trade is that Russia cannot deliver and now official holders are being squeezed.


DaveC (12/6/2000; 0:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 43049)
Comments from Fed Watchers Requested
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/boardacts/2000/20001205/default.htm
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 5, 2000

AGENCIES ISSUE INTERIM CAPITAL RULE FOR COLLATERAL
IN SECURITIES BORROWINGS
The federal bank regulatory agencies today issued and requested public comment on an interim rule revising the risk-based capital treatment of cash collateral posted in connection with certain securities borrowing transactions. The agencies are also requesting comment on the capital treatment of securities borrowing transactions where securities are posted as collateral. The rule applies only to those banking organizations with significant trading activities that are subject to capital treatment under the market risk rules.

The interim rule, published in the Federal Register by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, provides a capital treatment for U.S. banking organizations that is more in line with the capital treatment applied to their domestic and foreign competitors.

The interim rule is effective January 4, 2001. U.S. banking organizations may apply the provisions of this interim rule beginning December 5, 2000. Comments on the rule are due by January 19, 2001.

Neither the Basel Accord nor the risk-based capital guidelines adopted by the three agencies specifically address securities borrowing transactions. The Accord is an international framework for assessing the capital adequacy of depository institutions by risk weighting their assets and off-balance sheet exposures and serves as a basis for the banking agencies' risk-based capital guidelines. In recent years, U.S. banking organizations have experienced rapid growth in securities borrowing transactions, which are used for various purposes, including short sales and securities fails (securities sold but not made available for delivery on the settlement date), and in conjunction with option and arbitrage positions.

The agencies recognize that securities borrowing is a long-established financial activity that historically has resulted in an exceedingly low level of losses. The interim rule recognizes this low risk and effectively lowers the capital requirement associated with these transactions. The interim rule is attached. (29 KB PDF)









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