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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/6/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

gidsek (10/06/00; 23:26:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 38444)
justamerebear
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0679720219/o/qid=970895825/sr=2-2/103-4721139-3138201
this made me laugh, I'm not sure why.

gidsek

-------------------------------------------------

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The Plague by Albert Camus, September 17, 2000
Reviewer: Your Name from USA
the book was boring because it was the same thing through out the whole book. its just about people dying from a plague. dont read it.


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Black Blade (10/06/00; 23:22:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 38443)
RE: Invisible Hand
The Libertarian Party and other organizations have tried to place similar ads on the Networks in the past without success. They were denied based on content. It would be interesting if they can get this one placed but I wouldn't hold my breath. The ruling class won't stand for it. A few years ago The Libertarians were told they could participate if they got 50 state ballot access. They did, and the League of Women Voters changed their mind. Afterward some states raised the number of registered voters required to get on the ballot. Some states changed the law stating that registrars could not be paid contractors and they had to be residents of each voting district. The Demopublican Party does not want to upset the status quo. Let's face it, we lost this country to the ruling class long ago. The Sheeple are just too stupid to see it or even care. It's no wonder then that barely half the eligible voters even take the time to vote.

Black Blade (10/06/00; 23:11:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 38442)
PGM's back in the news, another developing run on PGMs?
US DLA sees platinum sales later this month; awaits Mint deal

New York--Oct. 6--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency expects to begin platinum sales sometime later this month after finalizing arrangements with the Mint for the return of 75,000 ounces of platinum. The DLA is exploring the possibility of a paper transfer between the two agencies, but has not yet determined if such an arrangement is possible, a DLA official told BridgeNews Friday.

Black Blade: The Mint to return Pt back to the DLA? Hmmmmm, Also there wasn't much Russian PGM supply this last month even after all the hype about Russian deliveries. There was a 17 day strike at AngloAmerican Platinum in SA. PGM supplies still look very tight.

US DLA sold 2,074.466 oz palladium on Thursday

New York--Oct. 6--The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency sold a total of 2,074.466 troy ounces of palladium from its Web site sales Thursday.

Black Blade: DLA is really scraping out every nook and cranny for Pt! They were still trying to get back Pt and Pd from the bankrupt Englehard refinery last I heard. I don't know if they ever got it back and they are being very quiet about it.


LeSin (10/06/00; 22:45:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 38441)
Russian Oil Sold in US$ - Tax Export Tariff in EUROs
Weak Euro Forces Russia to Adjust Oil Export Tariff

MOSCOW, Oct 5, 2000 -- (Reuters) Russia plans to peg its export tariff on crude oil to changes in the rate of the European currency against the U.S. dollar, a senior trade ministry official told Reuters on Wednesday.

"The oil we export is paid for in dollars, while we collect duties in euros," said Andrei Kushnirenko, the head of the tariff policy department at the ministry.

"The euro has fallen against the dollar by some 25 percent in the last year and a half, so we have to take this into consideration."

He said the government commission for protective measures in foreign trade had to elaborate the new scale within two weeks.

But he did not say when the new scale would become effective.

Currently the export tariff on crude oil is set in euros once in every two months, and its rate is pegged to the price of the Russian Urals crude blend.

Russia will raise crude oil export tariffs from the beginning of November to EUR 34 per ton from the current EUR 27, following an increase in world oil prices.

(C)2000 Copyright Reuters Limited


Black Blade (10/06/00; 22:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 38440)
It was the EIA numbers.
Price of heat to rise
A 25% leap in heating oil and natural gas prices is expected this winter
October 6, 2000: 1:09 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American consumers should brace for at least a 25 percent jump in heating oil and natural gas prices this winter, with an even bigger leap in store if temperatures are colder than usual, the U.S. government said on Friday. The new predictions for the coming winter fuel season were issued two days after the Clinton administration finalized plans to loan 30 million barrels of the government's own stockpiled crude to energy companies. Release of the crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is aimed at helping U.S. refiners replenish their inventories and inject more supplies into the market. Republicans have criticized the move as an attempt to influence voters in next month's presidential election.

The White House action will add between three and five million barrels of heating oil stocks to the market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its latest supply estimates. The amount is relatively small compared to total winter demand for heating oil, but it does "improve the buffer" against any demand increases, the EIA said. U.S. government energy experts warned consumers that prices will be higher regardless of what fuel they use to heat their homes.

Natural gas prices paid by consumers will average $8.58 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) this winter, up more than 29 percent from last year, the EIA said. Heating oil will cost an average $1.37 per gallon, compared to $1.18 per gallon last winter, the agency said. And propane, a fuel used by mostly rural American households, will average $1.16 per gallon, up from $1.02 last year. "In contrast to those of previous winters, fuel market supplies cannot be described as adequate to ensure a high probability of supplies meeting the demands of a very cold winter without difficulty," the EIA said.

If winter temperatures are colder than normal, there is "enhanced risk of significant upward price shocks" due to low inventories of heating oil and natural gas, the government said. The government also said it expects U.S. crude oil prices to remain above $28 a barrel for the rest of the year, easing to an average of $25 a barrel in 2001. If achieved next year, that price is squarely in the middle of the range that the Clinton administration and Republican lawmakers have said is a good balance for producing and consuming nations.

U.S. crude prices soared to a 10-year peak of nearly $38 a barrel in late September before the White House announced it would tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Since then, prices have fallen sharply and were trading at about $30.85 a barrel on Friday morning. The stockpile holds a total of 570 million barrels of crude oil, and was created by Congress in the mid-1970s after the first Arab oil embargo.


Black Blade (10/06/00; 22:07:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 38439)
Correction!
It's the Department of Energy and heating oil expected to be at $1.37/gal.

Black Blade (10/06/00; 21:54:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 38438)
NG and Heating Oil set to rise
Just released IEA calculations are for a normal winter with Heating Oil at $1.22/gal., and NG at $8.58 Mbtu. I'm looking for confirmation on this and to get details. I had calculated a price of $8.00 Mbtu a while back, but this is an interesting development.

Giovanni Dioro (10/06/00; 21:49:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38437)
Euro Weakness
This idea of a war between the Euro and the Dollar is a joke. I mean the European Central Bankers don't want the Euro strong for the time being. They may be somewhat frightened by its precipitous fall and are taking steps to slow the bleeding, however they have done nothing to support the Euro.


There appears to be collusion amongst the world's central bankers to keep the dollar strong. Even with the ECB's meagre ¼-point rate increase Thursday, the Euro's discount rate is only 4.75% compared to 6.5% in america. There is still a big enough differential to keep the carry-traders in business.

Also, American reports said the rate hike was a surprise move, but in fact it was expected in Europe, and to those who look closely, the puny ¼ point rise was a disappointment in that it was not bigger, and it makes it hard to believe the ECBankers are serious about having a strong currency.

Moreover, america is running a big trade deficit with Europe, but the ECB prefers to purchase and hold billions in US paper than let the dollar fall its course, which is what should happen when countries run big trade deficits. Note that this type of action has been going on for decades regarding Japan and America, with the Japanese Central Bank buying billions of US Treasuries to prevent the dollar from falling to a much lower equilibrium level.

The bankers pretend to be at war, but judge them not by their words, but by their actions.

The Invisible Hand (10/06/00; 21:18:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 38436)
The Drug War and the election
http://www.harrybrowne2000.org/com2.htm
Black Blade,

One candidate, Harry Browne, want to simply end the drug war and free all non-violent drug prisoners.

Ivo

To: LibertyWire subscribers
From: Perry Willis, Campaign Manager
Subj: New "War on Drugs" TV ad

We've just finished a new TV ad. This one deals
with the third of Harry's major issues, "The War
on Drugs." We believe this ad is the most powerful
of the five we've created. It will be our
workhorse ad for the remainder of the campaign.

We've come a long way in persuading people that
drug prohibition is an unmitigated evil. When I
began work in the LP nearly 20 years ago drug
legalization was the main reason people gave for
not supporting us. No longer. Today, millions of
Americans agree with us and millions more are
giving our position serious consideration.

Our new ad gives a human face to the invisible
victims of the drug war. It provides hope for
the millions of Americans who have family members
serving long sentences for non-violent drug offenses.
This is a huge group of people who may be persuaded
to vote for us because of this issue alone. And the
ad also provides an interesting hook for the media
by pointing out the hypocrisy of George Bush and Al
Gore.

But that's all I'll tell you. Go see the
ad for yourself by using the link in the P.S.
below. (You'll need RealPlayer software to view
the ad. If you don't have it you can download it
for free).

Then, if you like what you see, please go to
http://www.harrybrowne2000.org/misc/warning.htm
and make a contribution to help broadcast the ad.
We plan to use funds received from this appeal
to immediately begin buying broadcast time for
this spot. We think you'll be pleased with what
you see.


P.S. -- Since we are anticipating heavy traffic
on the website to view this ad once it is publicized,
we are providing LibertyWire subscribers with a
special advance sneak preview at this address:
http://www.harrybrowne2000.org/com2.htm .
After 12:00 noon EDT Saturday, a link to the ad
will be featured on the home page.

...


Black Blade (10/06/00; 21:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 38435)
What's Wrong With This Picture?
I was watching George Dubya giving a campaign speech today. He was criticizing Clinton for cutting the Drug war advisory staff at the White House. Then he went on to explain why we need smaller government. Hmmmmm……. The real losers in this election is the American people.

ET (10/06/00; 20:49:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 38434)
tedw - Cavan Man

Hey tedw - it seems to me the Middle East thing is awfully convenient at this time. This 'war' like the Serbian and Iraqi deals seem to be turned on and off at will. More or less Rent-A-Crisis.

CM - sorry I missed you. Did you notice the cars?

TheStranger (10/06/00; 20:38:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 38433)
Cavan Man's Question
Yes, Cavan Man. I would think value funds would be snapping up the goldminers. Unfortunately, however, the fund industry is presently caught in a bear market with very low levels of cash relative to historical standards. Furthermore, the industry is beginning to experience net redemptions. That doesn't leave many of them in any position to do much of anything other than sell. On top of that, if funds wish to create a loss applicable to tax year 2000, they must unload their dogs before the end of this month. That puts all of this year's poor performers at risk for the next three weeks. Then, after that, of course, you've got public tax-loss selling to contend with.

Of course, if what's going on on Wall Street nowadays succeeds in cracking the dollar, then we've got a whole different situation.

Can you see the St. Louis Arch from where you live?







Cavan Man (10/06/00; 20:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 38432)
@ Trail Guide
Whither Russia? Russia is a land of many troubles but also a land of many natural resources. That fact would have significance for the future of the EU wouldn't it?

Cavan Man (10/06/00; 20:20:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 38431)
ORO
I'm just a small fry but I do think it would ultimately be a huge, tactical error for the Brits to become dollarized; even indirectly.

ET (10/06/00; 20:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 38430)
Jim Grant
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3PVBK2TDC

From the article;

"Given the recent campaign rhetoric in which both major parties are advocating legislative
programmes that would tap into the ever-growing budget surplus," comments William V. Sullivan
Jr, money-market economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, "most voters would no doubt be
surprised to find out that the federal government's overall debt loan continues to expand.
Indeed, despite huge liquidations of outstanding securities in the secondary market, total
indebtedness remains on an upward trajectory as non-marketable issuance continues to soar."

"The facts are in the public domain. The big government trust funds - notably, the social security
trust fund - currently take in more than they pay out. However, the government relieves them of
this surplus and spends it, courteously leaving behind a marker, the aforementioned
non-marketables. As these claims are not negotiable outside government channels, they
constitute no visible burden on the public markets. Out of sight, out of mind.

"Actually, not quite out of sight. The non-marketable part of the debt, at about $2,600bn, is
almost as big as the marketable portion, at about $3,000bn. Over the past two years, as Mr
Sullivan notes, non-marketables have climbed by more than the marketables have declined: a
$439bn rise versus a $328bn fall. The significance of the cumulative debt, $5,600bn, is that it is a
scant $350bn below the statutory debt ceiling.

"It is not unthinkable, Mr Sullivan goes on, that the next administration may have to ask for a
higher ceiling. It would possibly frame the request in this vein: "In view of the virtual
disappearance of the marketable debt, this country stands on the brink of a fiscal crisis . . . ."

Cavan Man (10/06/00; 20:15:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 38429)
Hello TG
I own a very small amount of AU equities. I am a physical kind of guy. My metal is dead even; my stocks are under water (all unhedged).

In your opinion, is there any chance gold equities might recover to their levels even 90-120 days ago?

Tate (10/06/00; 20:03:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 38428)
ECB and $camp. Are they at war?
1. Head of Homestake Mining mentions Peruvian gold loaned in to market as part of 1000 tons that are outside of ECB control. He considers this gold to be the main detriment to a price rise.
2. Gore openly declares having Rubin as adviser and would seek his advise during financial crises. In his words "We scraped old plan and implemented a new one which brought all prosperity.
3. Rumors of unofficial attack on euro by funds and bank of England.

Interest rate hike. Will it be enough to defend euro?
Since attack against euro comes from Dollar camp it appears that war will be fought between these two camps. Somehow
I think oil and gold will be effected drastically.
Back in 1997 I had some Russian oil dealers visiting Canada. They did oil price calculations using Euro units. I have
no doubt Russians are quite comfortable with Euro.


Cavan Man (10/06/00; 19:59:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 38427)
ORO 38403
About a year or so ago, I pointed out that Russia announced a sort of levy of X Euros (a small amount) to be collected with every Bbl of oil sold from Russia into Europe. I asked TG about this and he said it foreshadowed coming events or words to that effect.

ET (10/06/00; 19:55:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 38426)
Money
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=517&FS=A+Future+for+Gold

From the article;

"Can the gold standard be restored? There are considerable political obstacles to overcome; others involve technical issues of
finance that were addressed by Greenspan in a Wall Street Journal essay (Sept. 1, 1981). Given the Fed Chair's remarks, and
the approaching 30th anniversary of Nixon's grievous mistake, it is time to consider a new political agenda for gold that
addresses the prospect of inflation.

"Two schools of economic thought in the 20th Century shunned a role for gold. These were the Keynesians, whose founder,
the British economist John Maynard Keynes, termed gold "a barbrous relic;" and the Chicago school monetarists led by Nobel
laureate Dr. Milton Friedman.

"But intellectual support for a golden role emerges from two schools of economic thought: the venerable 125-year-old
Austrian school of Carl Menger, Eugen Böhm-Bawerk, Nobel laureate Friedrich Hayek, Ludwig Von Mises, and Murray
Rothbard; and the modern supply-siders, who trace their roots to Say's Law, and whose major advocates have been Dr.
Arthur Laffer, former U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp, R-N.Y., author Jude Wanninski (The Way The World Works) and The Journal's
editorial page.

"The supply-siders began to argue in the late 1970s for a gold price rule to stabilize prices. Under a price rule, commodity
prices, including gold, would be stabilized by the Fed within a target range. If commodity prices declined below the range the
Fed would ease monetary policy to bring them within the target. If prices increased above the range the Fed would en to bring
them into the target. Supply-siders contend gold is the most important commodity, a sort of North Star for monetary
authorities to follow. There is some evidence the Fed, under Paul Volcker, used an informal price rule in the early 1980s.
Former FOMC members such as Manuel Johnson have also publicly disclosed they followed commodity prices in setting
monetary policy.

"After Republican Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980 the supply-siders aggressively promoted a formal gold price
rule. The Fed would have the power to stabilize the dollar, a fiat currency, by fixing the gold price. Dr. Laffer and colleague
Charles Kadlec wrote:

"The purpose of a gold standard is not to turn every dollar bill into a warehouse receipt for an equivalent amount of gold, but
to provide the central bank with an operating rule that will facilitate the maintenance of a stable price level." (Wall Street
Journal, Oct. 13, 1981). Gold could be one of many commodities in a basket index, or even be excluded; one reason the price
rule proposal was not welcomed by Austrians. Nor was it adopted by many Republican politicians in the 1980s; the idea quietly
disappeared from public view. But the gold price rule could reemerge as a policy idea or platform plank within the Republican
Party if inflation returns or the U.S. dollar falls.

"The political obstacles to gold are clear: the classic gold standard, or any variant such as a price rule, are anathema to career
politicians because it restricts their ability to spend taxdollars and engage in wasteful spending. There are no references to
gold in the 2000 Democratic and Republican platforms. This is not surprising given the relative disinflation--falling inflation
rates--of the last two decades. Only the Libertarians formally promote the idea, noting a gold standard would give the
American people veto power over Fed monetary policy by giving them the means to demand the precious metal as redemption
for dollars declining in value. By contrast, the current fiat money system gives central banks and politicians that power."


SHIFTY (10/06/00; 19:54:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 38425)
Far eastern economic review
http://www.feer.com/_0010_12/p08.html
Riady Invites Clinton to Lippo Board
Indonesian tycoon James Riady has invited U.S. President Bill Clinton to join the board of Lippo Group when he steps down from office early next year, according to business people who have met Riady in Jakarta recently. Riady has been telling business contacts in Jakarta that he expects Clinton to accept, even though the U.S. president has been dogged by allegations that Riady funnelled illegal foreign donations to Clinton's 1992 and 1996 election campaigns. A former Lippo Group employee reports that as far back as the mid-1990's Riady was said to be trying to recruit Clinton to the board as soon as he left office. Jakarta police are currently helping the U.S. Justice Department in its investigation of the alleged campaign contributions.

Cavan Man (10/06/00; 19:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38424)
Stranger
Wouldn't you suppose it might make a little sense for "value" funds to buy some gold stocks?

Cavan Man (10/06/00; 19:52:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 38423)
ET, furthermore....
How 'bout PALM at 350 X PROJECTED earnings? Was reported in 10-5 WSJ. Handspring is just a tad lower!

Cavan Man (10/06/00; 19:50:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 38422)
ET
Ha! I was in Detroit and Toledo today. Had lunch at Real Seafood across the Cherry Street Bridge. Know the place?

Cavan Man (10/06/00; 19:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 38421)
tedw
My friend, pick your country. There's plenty of hate to go around. No one region has cornered the market. Respectfully....CM

tedw (10/06/00; 19:44:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 38420)
The Middle East and Oil
http://www.usagold.com


Things are heating up in the middle east. 10000 Iranians in the street protesting, Syrian Mob storming US Embassy, and 8 more Palestenian Deaths.Arafat announcing Jersualem will be the Capital of a Palestinian state whether the Jews like it or not. More battles on the Temple Mount.

One thing you can count on is the depravity of human nature. The level of hate is high in the mideast,and personally I dont see a solution. There is a good chance we are seeing the beggining of the next middle east war (I hope not of course).

All of the above being true, I would expect the middle east oil producers to begin using oil as a weapon for blackmail.

The message to the US might be pressure Isreal into giving up the Temple Mount and parts of Jerusalem or the price of oil is going higher. Much higher.

Remember we are not dealing with sane people here. We are dealing with people consumed by hate.




ET (10/06/00; 19:39:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 38419)
Technology
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=519&FS=Time+for+Optimism

From the article;

"Dan Topscott, who is chairman of Digital4Sight, a thinktank investigating the ways technology is transforming society and
government, concludes that "Our research at Digital4Sight shows that without fundamental change, the legitimacy, authority,
and role of governments will diminish precipitously."

"The primary reason for this decline is the emergence of a new majority of tech-savvy citizens. Governmental authority will be
undermined because networked technologies make it easier for this digital citizenry to establish their own networks to
represent their interests or resolve issues. These activities will be created outside of - and in spite of - government.

"The creation of products like Napster has fundamentally challenged the authority of governments. Michael Ascroft, RedChip
senior site producer, recently asked the important questions. Can the United States even enforce its own copyright laws,
given that decentralized peer-to-peer technologies make copyright violations possible on a massive scale?

"If a law is unenforceable due to resistance on the part of the governed, will the law have to change? And finally, if citizens of
the United States can easily flaunt the law from their desktops by simply linking to servers based in another country, has
national sovereignty been compromised?"

"The questions alone are enough to warm a libertarian's heart."

ET (10/06/00; 19:03:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 38418)
Doug Noland
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm

From the article;

"First of all, you may have noticed that New Paradigmers
usually don't discuss profits, choosing instead to focus on
productivity and the notion of "creative destruction." Yet,
profits are THE critical underpinning of capitalist economies.
Profits are the oil that keeps the machine running. Profits are
the mechanism that effectively directs scarce capital and
resources - the foundation for the market pricing
mechanism. Profits, as a proxy for cash flows, provide the
basis for rewarding innovation and sound investment. Profits
are the rewards reaped by astute risk-taking shareholders.
And, importantly, profits are what ensure that an enterprise
will be able to service its debts. Without profits, there is no
sustainable economic prosperity. An economy with its
financial and business sectors intent on rewarding consumers
at the expense of economic profits is destined for a problematic
misallocation of resources, instability, and inevitable
stagnation. Indeed, a system without a profit motive is one of
inevitable financial and economic fragility.

"The fact that McTeer would admit that "economic profits are
temporary at best" is quite remarkable. That this in no way
reduces his sanguine view of future economic prospects is as
unbelievable as it is disconcerting. It certainly indicates an
incredible lack of understanding of the dynamics of capitalism
and economics generally. As such, we doubt the concept of
financial fragility even enters into the minds of the New
Paradigmers. Certainly, we have heard nothing from the likes
of McTeer or Kudlow that lead us to believe they have a clue
as to the root causes of the unsound boom, and certainly not
the dark consequences now unfolding. We are in full
agreement that economic profits are today in most serious
jeopardy. But this is not part of some "New Economy" but is
instead terrible news for our economy and financial system -
the ugly but inevitable consequence of years of runaway credit
excess and reckless overspending. But, then again, this is
precisely why the Federal Reserve was created and given the
momentous responsibility of carefully guarding our credit and
financial system. To be a central banker is to err on the side of
conservatism because the cost of erroneously interpreting a
"New Era" is devastating. The Great Depression was not that
long ago..."

ET (10/6/2000; 18:41:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 38417)
Cavan Man

Hey CM - congrats on those Cards! Super Bowl and World Series wins in the same year?

Saw your note concerning the government sponsored lenders. You can relax in St. Louis as help has arrived in the nick of time. Old Dickie G still knows how to bring home the bacon. I'm sure the Dems will spare no expense the last few weeks, particularly in the swing states.

I was in the Detroit/Toledo area this week and couldn't fail to notice the lots full of new vehicles at the rail heads. I haven't seen this many cars on the lots in ten years or so.

We actually had a great August following a lousy June and July, but September went right back in the tank. The truck industry isn't showing any signs of recovery yet as equipment prices keep going lower. Truck service is strong but parts sales are weak. It looks like we are setting the stage for a serious shakeout amongst all the players with those with the least debt holding the cards. There are some great buys out there if you've got the green.

JavaMan (10/6/2000; 18:16:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 38416)
Now here's an energy policy for you...
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAPCAHI0EC.html
So let me get this straight...we tap the SPR for 30 million barrels of which 20 million barrels displaces imports from OPEC...and of the 10 million barrels left...we export some unknown amount. This, is unbelievable

From the link: WASHINGTON (AP)- Only about a third of the 30 million barrels of oil being released from the government's emergency reserve will result in additional oil going to refineries, an Energy Department report acknowledged Friday.

The rest will displace 20 million barrels of imported oil that refineries will not buy because of the availability of the government oil, said the winter fuels report issued by the department's Energy Information Administration.
...
Energy Department officials as well as some members of Congress expressed concern that refiners may be exporting heating oil to Europe, where the supply crunch is even more severe and prices are higher.

Mazur said analysts are puzzled why refineries are operating at top capacity but inventories of heating oil is remaining low, and he did not rule out that some heating oil may be being exported.
...
Murkowski, who has been critical of the decision to use the emergency oil, said he was concerned that "we are going to release oil from our (reserve) to provide product for a European market."


ET (10/6/2000; 18:09:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 38415)
Lance Lewis
http://216.46.231.211/bearthoughts.htm

From today's market wrap;

"Internet stocks were blitzed. By now, everybody
knows about William Shatner's PCLN and its death-march
to zero. It fell another 4 percent today. After the
close, a class action shareholder lawsuit was
announced against PCLN. So, it appears Scotty may have
been telling the truth for once when he told Captain
Kirk, "She's breeeakin apart, Kaptin! I can't hold her
together!" Expect a lot more of these type suits, and
unfortunately quite a few of them have a lot of merit,
although I know nothing about the merits of this
particular case. A lot of games have been going on for
quite a while, and we can only hope that the guilty
parties can be found when the dust settles before the
files make their way to the shredder."

"Traders' commitments were released today and continue
to show the commercial traders (the "smart money")
with a record net short position in the spoos,
although down ever so slightly from two weeks ago.
Commercials were also net short the NDX after being
net long two weeks ago. Gold's commitments slipped a
little although commercials are still net long.
Commercials were heavily long every foreign currency
except.... (you guessed it)... the zero, where they
actually increased their net short position. So, that
indicator would argue that a plunge in the euro is
still on the way."

Midas Mulligan (10/6/2000; 18:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 38414)
If I were Bill Gates, or any other wealthy successful producer, what would I do
I would sell the public as much paper stock and bonds as I could via ipo's and then invest in gold with the liquidity raised. I live in Atlanta and thus I'm trying to get as many Atlanta's best and brightest to do what I'd do if I were them since what they do affects me. I'm just a mobile billboard driver who owns a .10 ounce gold eagle coin and 25,500 warrants of Cusac Gold mines which have expired last January, and I just sold 250 shares of Canyon Resources gold co because I needed the 125$ to live off of.

TownCrier (10/6/2000; 17:29:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 38413)
Sir Black Blade...
Yeah. Kinda like when Apollo 13 rounded the moon. They weren't done with their trip, but they were getting closer to Earth.

Giovanni Dioro (10/6/2000; 17:24:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 38412)
@justamere, An Excellent Book on AIDS
There is a book written in circa 1994 called "Full Disclosure". It is ghost-written by former MI6 agent Dr. John Coleman, but because Dr. Coleman is not a medical doctor it was decided to officially credit the authorship to Dr. Gary Glum .

This book delves into the behind the scenes aspects of the AIDS virus. How it was developed and spread, who is vulnerable, the ways that it can be transmitted.

It is available from:
World in Review
2533 N. Carson St., Suite J-118
Carson City, Nevada 89706

1 800 942 0821


Personally I would think that an AIDS epidemic would be deflationary and in spite of the suffering, those who survive could very well be better off.

Generally speaking, when death rates are high, then usually so too are birth rates. For example during the plagues in Europe, farms were abandoned because of the disease. You could walk right in and take over. So in times of suffering and death there was prosperity for the people who survived it. I guess you could say that this comes from fewer people enjoying the assets of the world, inheriting the whole lot instead of sharing it with siblings, etc.

Black Blade (10/6/2000; 17:24:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 38411)
Analysts are trully amazing people
Just heard this on the news from a "brilliant" stock analyst: "We're not done with the selling, but we are getting closer to a bottom."

Black Blade: You really think so? ;-)

miner49er (10/6/2000; 17:18:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 38410)
Black Blade - NG
And pipeline capacity is another wonderful story in itself!!
Something we can all read about as we shiver this winter...

Actually, what I was trying to refer to are the limitations on natural gas insofar as its ability to be more than a regionally marketable commodity. I.e., gas found in the bowels of Canada will be marketed in North America because of its transport medium limitations (pipes). Canadian gas is not purchased for use in, say Singapore.

With vast amounts of reserves, they are limited in their traditional markets by, as you mention, pipeline capacity for one, and have no exposure to distant markets hungry for this relatively inexpensive, plenteous energy source because of transport problems.

So if someone can turn gas economically into a synthetic oil product, it should more than offer a crude oil alternative, it could provide vastly larger markets for a valuable resource heretofore somewhat contained by its unique physical properties.



Black Blade (10/6/2000; 17:07:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 38409)
"Working Group on Financial Markets" is losing it's grip
It appears that the "Working Group on Financial Markets" (AKA PPT) could not keep a lid on Wall Street today. Unemployment dropped to 3.9% even with the loss of over 270,000 manufacturing jobs. Can you say recession? I knew you could! The negative stories on earning continue to dominate the market news. We could very well see the NASDAQ drop below 3000 next week. This could be "Black October." The ridiculous stratospheric valuations of the tech sector are sure to revert to the historical mean for equities, and that means we could see a NASDAQ of about 600 perhaps. Then again, maybe the PPT could pull it together and be cheer-leading with their hypnotic "Buy-The-Dips" mantra as dazed and confused investors go further into debt in their mind numbed state buying equities of companies not likely to ever see a profit.

BTW, William Shatner (Yep, Captain Kirk) sold 39,000 shares of his Priceline.com (PCLN) at $85/share before his spilling the beans on national TV that he never uses the service. Today it closed at $5.50/share. No PE, it doesn't make a profit.


TownCrier (10/6/2000; 17:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 38408)
Stocks Hit Lowest Point Since May
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/001006/cd.html
From Reuters:
"...government data showing the tightest labor market in 30 years reignited fears that the Federal Reserve's drive to raise interest rates may not be over. A fresh batch of warnings from companies that profits would lag estimates also spooked investors, who fear a combination of high interest rates, firm oil prices and a weak euro could eat into Corporate America's bottom line."

One senior market strategist is quoted in the article saying, "This market is treacherous. You are seeing indiscriminate selling."

Commenting on the fear of the Fed potentially boosting rates higher due to the decline in unemployment figures, together with market rumors that one or more Wall Street firms had taken large junk bond trading losses, another analyst said, "The confluence of both events is just whacking the financials."

Meanwhile, Paul Cox, manager of the Commerce Mid-Cap Fund at Commerce Bank, told Reuters, "You are getting a lot of fear built into this market. There is no bottom in a lot of these technology stocks. They just want them out of the portfolios and they are just selling them."

And October has only just begun...

TownCrier (10/6/2000; 16:52:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 38407)
Priceline Founder Loses Millions on Paper
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/001006/ce.html
From Reuters:
"Underscoring the fragility of paper riches in new-economy companies, a Buck Consultants study shows Walker has seen the value of his holdings fall to $242 million from $1.17 billion since Sept. 15."

Company executives are seeing their cool oasis of stock options turn into nothing but a shimmering mirage in the heat of the moment. That ought to teach them a lasting lesson about the value of paper promises versus something tangible like gold.

Coulda...woulda...shoulda asked for some gold.

Black Blade (10/6/2000; 16:43:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 38406)
The NG Issue Could Be Pipeline Capacity!
The developing natural gas crisis is going to be the big story this winter should there be an early cold winter. We do not have a Strategic Natural Gas Reserve. The Heating oil shortage is definitely a problem due to a lack of refinery capacity. However, consider that only about 10 million homes are heated with heating oil. There are about 56 million homes heated with natural gas. But there is another issue that has been either ignored or overlooked. That is the lack of natural gas pipeline capacity. The natural gas producers are scrambling to increase their storage. It is a bit late in the year to get sufficient natural gas inventories built up should we have a normal or colder than normal winter in the US. The pipelines will have to pass on natural gas to storage, to current usage, and for electric power generation. On top of all this there is political and environmental opposition to building new pipelines. This whole issue has been overlooked! It shall be an interesting winter.

Beowulf (10/6/2000; 16:34:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 38405)
GS Down
Any day Goldman Sachs goes down $6 is a good day in my book. We should have more days like these soon.

HI - HAT (10/6/2000; 15:32:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 38404)
justamereBear______AFRICA
This site is what you are looking for and much more.
Scroll down until you hit your interests.

WWW.dieoff.org

ORO (10/6/2000; 14:54:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 38403)
Trail Guide - ECB rate hike
I take it that the WAR is going out into the open. Is that so?

Some mention has been made that Eddie is dumping Euro and that the hedgies got a green light to resume shorting the Euro from the Anglo camp. Does this mean the UK has finally decided to go with the dollar camp after Labour stating for years that the EMU membership is "inevitable"?
Was this presumed turn of events the cause for the escalation?

Is the ECB intent on pulling the rug from under the Euro carry trade into dollars and to spring the debt trap?

The scariest thing is what will happen to Japanese interest rates now that they bear the full brunt of US borrowing. Is a 5% JGB on the horizon? I remember Jimmy Rogers talking of short JGB as one of his top 5 trades for 1999 (indeed was a good one as the JGB tanked with yields jumping from 1% to near 2% and getting ready for another jump as short rates are closing in on the long rate). I imagine that the current Yen weakness is related to renewed strength in Yen Carry as the Euro carry has had the door slammed in its face.

I gather the silence on the Iraqi proposal to take Euro for payment is of the "thundering silence" type. Have you heard anything about higher ups taking positions on the issue? Do you know how strong the Russian commitment is to accepting Euro for their oil and natural gas (near 20% of EU supply)? Is Norway on the EU side? Will the rest of OPEC go along on Euro settlement now that the cat is out of the bag and no big noise was made over it (publicly at least)?

Thanks

ORO


TownCrier (10/6/2000; 14:40:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 38402)
A snapshot of stockmarket sentiment from Briefing.com 30 minutes prior to market close
15:30 ET Dow -192, Nasdaq -150: [BRIEFING.COM] "It was bearish earlier in the session, it turned ugly and now it is getting scary... This has not been the massive sell off related to a particular event, this is worse... Despite the dramatic declines over the last month, the indices have yet to reach a level low enough to bring investors back into the fray... Over the last two weeks the Dow had remain confined slightly above its 1998/2000 trendline while the Nasdaq slowly began to catch up... Today both of the indices have staged a bearish breakout through their respective trendlines... Volume has been very heavy but there have been no signs of capitulation yet, merely a constructive meltdown... "
---------

Does that sound like a place you'd like to spend your weekend? (As it turned out, at the close the Nasdaq had lost 3.2% while the Dow finished only 1.2% lower. It's October...are the market participants getting jittery?)

It calls to mind a couple of notable quotes:

"It is extraordinary how many emotional storms one may weather in safety if one is balasted with ever so little gold." --William McFee (1881-1945)

"The possession of gold has ruined fewer men than the lack of it." --TB Aldrich

Pete (10/6/2000; 14:12:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 38401)
Hedgers and forward sellers diminishing the mining industry?
http://209.82.62.19/musabb.nsf/Current/8525694F0071AB708525696D007FC2DF
I apologize if this article has been posted previously. According to this gentleman, there is no cabal, but a serious problem in the mining industry by selling forward, hedging and the use of derivatives. Comments appreciated.

wolavka (10/6/2000; 13:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 38400)
Churchill on women
Woman like a good cigar, you gotta lite em up, before you smoke'em.

Gold has no place left to go but up. Did not sell off into support @ 270-71. Buy more, and hold. not investment advice.

grains to break higher gap fill before crop report 10-12, not investment advice.



Midas Mulligan (10/6/2000; 13:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 38399)
Producers prevent inflation
Dont blame the politicians. They ride on the backs of the producers using monetary and fiscal force to prod and stimulate them into increasing output because the producers allow them to. Now that energy costs are rising the politicians will simply use legislation to stimulate an increase in productive activity by the producers in order to neutralize and offset these rising costs. Our world is "Beyond Freedom and Dignity"

MarkeTalk (10/6/2000; 13:20:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 38398)
The Bear Comes Out of the Closet
Today's action in the stock market is further validation of a warning which I (among others) gave last Friday in message #37891. We have had more than one "bear market delight" since then, as we have seen one high-tech stock after another slammed. The bellwether high-tech darlings--Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Micron Technology, etc--are now all below their moving averages. This is very bearish market action. Now add to that another fact which I just learned yesterday from a good client and friend of our firm. He told me that his friends who are in stock mutual funds are receiving notices from the mutual fund companies that they owe taxes on gains which were generated earlier in the year. But now the value is not there. These investors are in the worst of both worlds. They owe taxes on phantom gains. But the value of their portfolios is down, so they will have to sell stocks at a loss just to pay their taxes. Just imagine if this kind of thing is happening nationwide. Here come more redemption notices. Some people are telling me that we are near a bottom in stocks. I disagree. You ain't seen nothing yet--as the colloquial saying goes.

My indicators are still pointing to a major upset in markets before the election takes place. My sources have confirmed this again. Keep a watchful eye out for some type of military event involving U.S. troops over the next 2-3 weeks. From a technical point of view, stocks topped last month on the full moon and have declined ever since. Not even a bounce occurred as we entered the next lunar phase, which happened to coincide with Rosh HaShanah. Instead we have seen a continued slide. Now add to this the political tensions in the Balkans and Israel, especially the strife between Israelis and Arabs. One of our favorite newsletter writers, Adrian Van Eck, has gone on record as saying that a shut-off of Middle East oil to the West (America and Europe) is now imminent. I have posted this same message earlier last month and have told clients on the telephone as well. Oil hit $30 per barrel yesterday and has now bounced up. I believe that $30 is the bottom and we could be looking at $40 per barrel before we see $25 per barrel again. Such an event will further exacerbate the squeeze on stock market profits and raise inflation. Can a major rise in the gold price be far behind? I answer emphatically "YES." And my clients and lurkers at this site tend to agree. Calls are coming in from all over. Prudent minds see the dangers and are now taking action.

TownCrier (10/6/2000; 13:00:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 38397)
Sir JavaMan, you have a way with words...
And, 25 percent increases! My...that will certainly serve the population an effective wake-up call to a new season overcast with inflation.

JavaMan (10/6/2000; 12:46:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 38396)
But...but...I thought Al Gore, saved the day...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/001006/bn.html

From the link above: <<WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American consumers should brace for a 25 percent leap in prices of heating oil and natural gas this winter, with an even bigger rise possible, the U.S. Energy Department predicted on Friday.>>



REVELATION (10/6/2000; 12:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 38395)
EVENTS ARE NOW UNFOLDING TO BE HISTORIC IN NATURE
1) Most if not all of us will never experience such a severe financial catastrophic disaster unfolding as we enter a whole new era. This will be rated as bad as the dark
ages due to careless/reckless credit expansion that
fueled this recent boom. In several years we are faced
with great economic disparities. No politician or government
can stop what is about to take place.

2) The CABAL will try everything in it's power to stop
the carnage. However, they are only exasperating
the problem as time goes on. The markets are manipulated to extreme limits by the Clinton administration. The people
will suffer dearly due to his egotistical policies.

3) Gold may suffer intially as events unfold. The CABAL
will sell into this market every ounce they have to
discourage anyone into GOLD. But, they will fail
miserably when buying overwhelms the market.

4) Keep cash/gold/food/fuel close at hand. Banks will
fail and grocery store shelves will be wiped clean.
No one alive today can say exactly how the out
come will be, but use everyday common sense to
protect yourself. The government will not be there
to help you. Anything you use on an everyday basis
stockpile, because you won't be able to when the
dam does finally break.

5) Don't listen to friends or relatives. They will only
discourage you from protecting yourself and family.
Very few will survive this coming financial debacle.
The public has been trained to believe that nothing
can go wrong. Don't believe it for a minute. Everything
is about to go wrong.

6) Have faith and don't let anyone deter you. In the long
run all of us will be better off. But, we would have paid
a huge price. That's the cost of freedom I'm afraid.
Our country needs a huge awaking, if we our to
continue and survive. Otherwise, we as a people
will fail much worse if we continue on with the current
government.

I HOPE EVERYONE HERE, INCLUDING MYSELF IS
SAVY OR FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO SURVIVE
THE NEW ERA BEING HANDED DOWN TO US.
I DO FEEL LUCKY IN THE SENSE THAT WE ALL
DO HAVE A CHOICE IN INSULATING OURSELVES
BEFORE IT HAPPENS. AS OF TODAY WE STILL
HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.

Best of luck to everyone here and I will continue to
value your informative material all of you have to
offer here.

miner49er (10/6/2000; 12:12:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 38394)
ORO - oily dollars
Thanks for taking the time to respond to my inquiries. I plan to respond back, but will probably do so over the weekend sometime.

miner49er (10/6/2000; 12:08:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 38393)
Oilman - Sasol
Oilman - thanks for your information. Always glad to get some different perspectives...

Sounds like this NG derived process for producing a synthetic also addresses one of the problems inherent with natural gas, that being the logistics of transport to distant markets.

Sort of like the American frontier farmer making whiskey out of his grain harvest... although I think I'll pass on doing shots of white oil, thank you.

Do you see an effort to develop this kind of process driven more by the need to do something economic with natural gas that otherwise faces these geographic limitations, or is the incentive more of a race to find crude oil alternatives, and this just happens to be one development that incidentally involves gas?





Hard assets...Easy access (10/6/2000; 11:17:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 38392)
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
COMEX prices rise, and COMEX prices fall, and with them so travels the emotions of many. But for the acquisition-minded, many contract sell-offs is cause for joy. Our physical bullion prices reflect these lowered futures contract prices, and so does our assortment of pre-1933 semi-numismatic gold coins. Call us at (800)869-5115 to discuss the prudent addition of gold to your wealth portfolio.

And when office hours or phone calls don't fit your schedule, feel welcome to stake your own gold claim with our offering of selected coins made available for on-line purchase...24 hrs, 7 days a week.

Let Centennial assist you with all of your precious metals needs. It is your decision to do business with Centennial that makes this website possible. Thanks for your support--past, present, and future.

TownCrier (10/6/2000; 11:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 38391)
A hard lesson in the catching of falling knives
http://www.denverpost.com/business/biz1006i.htm
Bloomberg News Headline: Gold business far from glittery

Companies come along when prospects are good, some languish when the trend turns against them or simply stalls for a period of time, and some fade away into bankruptcy before they may get to capitalize on the return of good prospects.

On the other hand, we've never seen a gold coin go bankrupt. Not even the gold coins of empires and nation-states that are found only in the history books these days. The many political/social/economic organizations and operations of mankind come and go over the ages, but the physical gold that passes through their hands has never failed to maintain its integrity and value in the hands of those that remain to tell the tale.

wolavka (10/6/2000; 9:17:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 38390)
Thomas Moore
Bullionist, ceres goddess of grain

Journeyman (10/6/2000; 9:06:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 38389)
Thanks! @justamereBear (10/05/00; msg#: 38349)

Hi justamere,

Thanks for the enlightening info on the quants, particularly the FX interbank traders. It was indeed an FX position that my friend was being recruited for.

By the way, I'm not applying for a job as a trader!

Thanx & regards,
Journeyman


HappyGoldLucky (10/6/2000; 8:59:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 38388)
Turnaround (10/05/00; 00:14:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 38279)
"defining money and worshiping the state"

Thanks for very stimulating interview with Stephen Zarlenga, Director of the AMERICAN MONETARY INSTITUTE, on the nature of money and the future of gold in a depression.

Zarlenga sounds like the inverse of Wolanchuck, who sees boomtimes as a source of growing demand for gold and much higher gold prices. Zarlenga offers $208 as possible important support in a crisis.

This is the exact opposite of what most of us seem to be expecting. Most think central bank infusion of money to save the financial system will be highly inflationary. This should be true if the economy doesn't sink into another 1930s style "liquidity trap". Now, if the system gets hit with a real financial whammy, gold may need to be pulled into some offical role, resulting in its revaluation, even if commodity prices become severly depressed. This would be the saving grace if Zarlanger is right. He, however, doesn't discuss this option.

Possible conclusion: it may be harder to predict what will in case of a stock market meltdown than goldsters have assumed so far.


Golden Truth (10/6/2000; 8:52:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 38387)
TTIIMMBBEERRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Markets selling off sharply, here it COMES!!
G.T

wolavka (10/6/2000; 8:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 38386)
go grains
higher!!!!!!! not investment advice

wolavka (10/6/2000; 8:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 38385)
dow & duck
major drop will force them into gold

Rockgrabber (10/6/2000; 8:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 38384)
The Gilded opinion is great!
AM I wrong in thinking this, in thinking that Banks like to lend people money at low rates, and then make the rates higher so they can forclose on businesses, property, and such.
The recent oil article in the gilded opinion did me good. To see the rise of Hugo Chavez. I see into his mind a bit from that article. Good time to once again go long FEB 29.00 Crude calls. Thanks for such a great place to do research. I am going to go read somemore


wolavka (10/6/2000; 7:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 38383)
scumbags
gonna spike it down before up.

Oilman (10/6/2000; 7:43:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 38382)
justamereBear 38381
You are 100% correct in suspecting that the whole issue on HIV/Aids is politically hot. Nevertheless, there is a surprising amount of data available on the internet, on sites such as Aidsline. A search on plagues, such as Black Death, should also bring up a lot of useful information. In South Africa, researchers such as Dr. Alan Whiteside, have been active for many years. Quite often, the data needs to be modified to take into account the very rapid spread of the disease in sub-Saharan Africa. From unofficial sources, I have found that the doubling period is closer to 6 months in sub-Saharan Africa, probably due to the socio-economic conditions prevalent in the area. Consequently, the time between the collection of data and the publishing of it becomes important. Because of the low GDP/capita ratio in sub-Saharan Africa, resources to fight the spread and treatment of the disease are problematic. The latest reports indicate that the life expectancy in the region should drop to below 40 years, making capital formation more difficult. I think it is very positive that the economic implications are starting to receive more attention, in spite of the very short time frame.

justamereBear (10/6/2000; 7:03:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 38381)
Nummus Aureus 38311 Oilman 38307 Oro 38378

Oro 38378
Great assembly, analysis and presentation of info.

Oilman 38307
I have been looking into disease, particularily the superbugs and AIDS. Most of the stuff I have found is mostly politically oriented. Sort of; "King X was touched and ordered the court jester to investigate and report back. Meanwhile the opposition...." But I never did see anything with any meat as to what the effect of the plague had on the day to day life of the guy on the street, or WHY the society changed to pastorial. Obviously I am looking in the wrong places. What sort of keywords (library or internet) would you use in that context? Do you have any sources that are apropos. I know for example that the city dweller was far more effected than the rural, because of the concentration of people, rats and pollution.

I think this subject has extremely wide ramifications for humanity over the next decade, and has been largely ignored. Thanks

Nummus Aureus 38311
Last but certainly not least. I have been most anxious to make the aquaintance of someone who has hands on experience with the situation in Northeast Africa, particularly the Lake Victoria area, and while any experience will do, preferably long time, so that a better sense of the changes that are taking place are available and to be able to seperate out the effects of disease from the cultural differences.

If you, or if you know someone who, wouldn't mind having their brains picked, I would be most appreciative. My email is currie@mqcinc.com. I am located in Toronto Canada. 416 410 4716 anytime. This Aids question has, in my mind gigantic ramifications.

I was in touch by phone with a lady (doctor??) with medcin sans frontiers, in Uganda. In the short conversation I garnered that her private estimate of HIV positive people was far and above the official estimates, and that in an area which fights a pretty constant battle with famine, that a good number of farms in the area were lying fallow, because the experienced farmers were dying off, and there was nobody with the skills to do the farming.

Any stories you might have as to the practical effects of disease, (which probably includes the power struggles of war) would be greatly appreciated by me, and I suspect, this forum. In basic terms, what happened (and WHY) to the guy on the street as a result of the "thin disease", how did the authorities react to a declining population base, how do you see this playing out there, and to consider the cultural differences, assuming the same percentage HIV positive, how would you see the scenario playing out in North America.

Finally, where else would you go for information? What aid agencies are operating in the area? What (news agency) reporters are covering thev area?

Sorry this is pretty all encompasing, but as I think I once posted, it is easy for an Eskimo to advise an African on how to deal with a heat wave, however it won't be very realistic. And I don't believe the average North American has any concept of how the average North Afican lived, never mind the effects of such a disease on that lifestyle.

Anxiously awaiting your response, and with thanks.


The Invisible Hand (10/6/2000; 6:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 38380)
Offens(iv)e on the dollar vs. Defense of the euro
www. inquirer.net
FOA, our Trail Guide, argues that the dollar is being driven up (vis-a-vis all currencies, and thus the euro) in failure..
Still the G7 and the ECB want to defend the euro.
Why is the dollar not being attacked instead? Agreed, by buying euro the G7 lowered the value of the dollar, but why is Greenspan then not lowering interest rates for example? That would drive up Wall Street? Ah, that's not possible, so can this quandary only be solved by gold?
Or perhaps one should take example from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The Philippine Daily Inquirer reports today that the BSP moved yesterday to defend the Philippine peso by raising the reserve requirement on banks by 2 percentage points to mop up excess cash being used by banks to speculate against the peso.
Let's kill all the speculators, those villains who buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high and thereby level prices off.

Trail Guide (10/6/2000; 6:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 38379)
The Show Has Begun!
http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/FRI/FIN/ecb.2.html
The dollar must fall to help the US continue it's end time march. First move done. Next one is in the pipeline!

===========
Paris, Friday, October 6, 2000

--FRANKFURT - The European Central Bank surprised markets Thursday by raising interest rates--------

---'We see no threat to growth'' from this rate increase, Mr. Duisenberg said. He said the euro-zone economy was at ''cruising altitude.''-----------

-----The move stunned economists----------

------''They keep raising rates into a slowing economy, '-----''It is hard to see why they would have done it today other than to try to prop up the euro.''-------------

------The ECB seems intent on crushing any inflation that stems from high crude oil prices and the weak euro. It cannot afford to appear soft on inflation, analysts said, when its own credibility is on trial and the euro under pressure.------

------Still, Mr. Duisenberg said, ''We had the maximum possible degree of consensus on today's decision.'' ------------
==============================

I'll skip the hike this weekend and show up here to discuss and clarify.

thanks
Trail Guide




ORO (10/6/2000; 4:48:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 38378)
HBM - inversion
The inversion is supposed to prevent bank lending, which is structured as borrow short lend long (and from which arises the need for the lender of last resort function of the Fed, as Antal Fekete's friend pointed out). As we have seen, the markets are seeing bank lending growing at a higher rate than debt securities markets. While the bond market is near comatose at a 5% growth rate, the banks are rushing in at a 9% growth rate.

How can they do this in the face of inversion and not raise interest rates paid on CDs? Well, let's see; (1) Someone is draining Yen from Japan's credit markets pushing up rates from well under 1% to well over. Could it be that the US banks are borrowing there (through Japanese banks)? (2) EU rates are also rising while capital flows are very obviously going state side, also made obvious by the fall of the Euro. Could it be that they are borrowing there? Fannie Mae is, why shouldn't they?

I say yes to both.

The Fed is playing a losing hand in trying to restrict lending this way. If anything, they are raising the driving force for lending out of Japan and Europe into the US. Some American borrowers are being shut out of the markets, but not the consumer, who has the various new capital investments bidding for his labor. For the corporations this high interest rate is a cost which they will eventually have to pass on to the consumer or go broke (i.e. stop operation and reduce supply, which has much the same result).

It should be noted that Yen exchange rates started eroding the minute after intervention "for the Euro". The borrowing simply moved to Yen sources instead of borrowing in Euro.

Korean rates are 7% on the short end. Canadian loonies go for 6%. Australian rates, Aussies being in 80% external debt relative to GDP (US is at just over 20%), are paying 6.25% at the short end. Swissies are up from 1% to 3.6% because of this borrowing (also some local borrowing and a couple of other changes - including removal of gold backing).

So...inversion is not working that well here, and it is getting undone as long rates are rising again.
I don't believe the Fed will do that much more raising for now because of the dangerous default rate in junk bonds nowadays. Banks putting up new loan loss reserves are going to demand a lower discount rate. I would be surprised if they didn't get what they ask for.




HI - HAT (10/6/2000; 4:43:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 38377)
ORO________Further Absurdities
ORO, "The absurdity of their activity was lost on them"

Further absurdity lost on them in their qwest to capitilize
all percieved "good", is the complete disregard for the increasing complexities and "costs", to put real food in the improved bowls.

Maybe the hedonist end of the rubber band in no way justifies accounting gimmicks for expansion, but, for sure the costs of societal complexities are stretching the band tight on the other end. SNAP.

SteveH (10/6/2000; 4:41:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 38376)
Heard on CNN
that the ECB is holding an emergency meeting today.

wolavka (10/6/2000; 4:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 38375)
dec 273.90
well they're making a run at it tonite, let's see.

wolavka (10/6/2000; 3:51:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 38374)
Sun
Dr. Wong say: sun rises in East.

Oilman (10/6/2000; 3:15:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 38373)
Cost of Crude
I am not sure whether the issue of the cost of crude oil production has been addressed in this forum. It could, however, shed some more light on the debate over the linkage between crude oil and gold.

Although the Middle East is by far the cheapest player in the crude oil game, I suspect the marginal player currently is the West African oil province. The crude oil deposits are mostly located off-shore, in shallow to ultra-deep oil plays. The size of these exploitable deposits lies typically between 20 to 50 million bbls in shallow waters, to over 1 billion bbls in the ultra-deep fields. as a basic rule-of-thumb, it costs US$3 per bbl to find and develop the fields, $3 per bbl to produce the oil, and an additional $3 per bbl for capital reward (say, depreciation). This gives an allin cost of approximately $9 per bbl for a typical West African oil play. However, the costs don't end there, as most crude oil is produced under a production sharing agreement (PSA) with the local government. One can think of the PSA as a substitute for corporation tax, with the government getting its cut in the form of a share in the crude oil output, on some-or-other negotiated basis (highly confidential, of course). Assuming the mathematics is correct, the cost of crude oil from the marginal player should put some floor under the price of crude oil, below which it becomes too risky to invest in the development of crude oil fields. It would appear reasonable to estimate this in the range between possibly $14 to $18 per bbl (my guess!).

The analysis becomes clouded by the issue of the availability of crude oil. If the "Hubbert Curve" is correct, and global crude oil output peaks in this decade, indicating a potential short to medium term tightness in the crude oil market, fundamental oilfield cost analysis becomes irrelevant in determining a reasonable price (as against cost) for crude oil. One is then forced to look at other alternatives, can range from fuel cells and batteries to the production of synthetic fuels from coal, natural gas, oil shales and ultra heavy hydrocarbons. I do not want to be too limiting in determining the range of possibilities.

As an intial start, I include some information about the Sasol synthetic fuel process (wwww.sasol.co.za), which is based on natural gas. Using Sasol's economics, the cash cost of production for a 10 000bbl per day plant is US$10 per bbl of white oil product (note: not crude oil equivalent!). Assuming it costs $250 million to build a 10 000 bpd plant (say 3.3mn bbls of product per year), the capital reward required is approximately $15 per bbl of product, giving a total cost of $25 per bbl white oil product. The equivalent crude oil price should lie in the range $18 to $20 per bbl, before allowing for any quality premiums, transportation costs, etc. The process is fully proven and low risk. Two production plants are under consideration, one in Nigeria (with Chevron as partner) and one in Qatar.



Sasol:
A single module of the Sasol Slurry Phase Distillate plant that converts 100 MMscfd (110 000 mn3/h) of natural gas into 10 000 barrels a day of liquid transport fuels can be built at a capital cost of about US$250-million. This cost equates to a cost per daily barrel of capacity of about US$25 000. This capital cost includes utilities, off-site facilities and infrastructure units.

If priced at US$0.50/MMBtu, the gas amounts to a feedstock cost of US$5 per barrel of product. The fixed and' variable operating costs (including labour, maintenance and catalyst) are estimated at a further US$5 per barrel of product, thereby resulting in a direct cash cost of production of about US$10 a barrel (excluding depreciation). Due to the superior environment-friendly quality of the products emanating from the Sasol Slurry Phase Distillate process, speciality markets could be entered at premium prices, thereby enhancing project economics further.

As with any investment in petrochemical plants economy of scale is critical. A plant with a larger capacity can be built with two or more modules in parallel thereby reducing costs per barrel of capacity and improving economy of scale. Further capital savings are possible if the plant is built alongside or near existing infrastructure.

By virtue of being a new (rather than a mature) technology - and given Sasol's excellent technology development track record - the Sasol Slurry Phase Distillate technology has significant scale-up potential. Sasol has long applied the philosophy of continuous improvement and recognises that extensive process improvements can be achieved as its plant process insights' and experience evolve.

These, and other focused actions, are a further commitment by Sasol to ensure the robustness of the economic viability of the Slurry Phase Distillate process.




wolavka (10/6/2000; 3:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 38372)
I'll try to get this right
Since yesterdays comex close, access mkt, dec gold opened @ 273.80, ran down 272.10:

Waiting for new york , employment report excuse to move market.

week end warriors a factor, shorts moved stops down from 282 toward 274 which factor a run towards 279, take it out then 282, then more stops over 282.

Kinda like levels of pain and/or reward.

support 270-71 dec. not investment advice.

ORO (10/6/2000; 2:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 38371)
miner49er - oily dollars
We have gone through this before in a number of posts between myself and FOA. I poured some rather acid criticism over the workability of the idea. The approach is monetarist in that monetary expansion is matched to growth in output. The measurement of output in this scheme receives heavy attention in finessing the measures to allow quicker rates of monetary expansion. The monetarist target of some 2% price inflation is met by adjusting Fed interest rates to restrict credit when currency depreciates at a quicker rate, and to lower it when price inflation is near 0 or when the debt markets become stressed.

The productivity of oil was in the low cost of its use relative to coal, its relative ease of refining for production of plastic precursors which permeated our life in everything from styrofoam to PE and PP bottles and other packaging, textiles, car parts, electronics enclosures and casings for parts etc.. You show a PE mixing bowl and a Sevres porcelain serving bowl to a quantitative economist and he could easily classify them as having the same utility, though a consumer would be willing to part with $2 to buy one and would only buy as many as needed for mixing while he would pay $300 for the other bowl and would buy more of them whenever he could. One would go into hiding in a kitchen cupboard and the other would go into a display case and taken out on important occasions. Marginal utility is something they can barely deal with, nor the fact of consumers making subjective decisions, nor with the fact of consumers willing to pay for rarity.

The point here is that the approach to answering "how much money", the question itself being stupid and a false issue, has different answers depending on one's interests. The debtor wants "as much as possible" so long as he doesn't get charged a higher interest rate. The saver wants "as little as possible" so that he can be clear of the fear of losing purchasing power, but not so little so that he can't collect interest. Bankers want "as much as possible for us and our clients, and as little as possible for our competitors and their clients". The quality of money is a lost issue altogether.

In monetizing the productivity of oil, the US Fed and government measured the numbers of plastic bowls produced and allowed bankers to lend $2.02 into existence for each $2 plastic bowl produced in the country. As time went on and it could be claimed that new plastic bowls were "better" because they had some measurable improvement in successive generations of bowls, they allowed the bankers to lend into existence $3 for each $1.50 bowl because it is 2 X "better". The fact that no one will pay more for this "better" bowl than the old "unimproved" bowl struck no one as odd or indicative of a mistake on their part - not only in performing the measurements and understanding of them, but in that they are making the attempt at all. The absurdity of their activity was lost on them.

As usual, bankers got their way in allowing them higher rates of return through expanded volumes of credit at lower outgoing interest rates and higher incoming interest.

The expansion of dollars with oil productivity was one of the more idiotic answers to the stupid question of how much money there should be.

Did the economists and policy makers at Fed and Treasury, not to speak of congress, know of the marking to dollars to "oil productivity"? Not really, they looked at it as "general productivity". That much of it was attributed to oil use was not a direct consideration but an indirect issue. The Arabian oil that was available at $1.80 per bbl of gold dollars and even offered at a political discount to $1 in large quantities was not of interest within the US, where prices were doubled because of the Texas Railroad Commission and the strategic need to keep oil supply sources within the US, or at least within its reach.

The Chinese takeover of the Panama canal may have something to do with this strategic oil from Venezuela and Mexico. Giving the Chinese power of denial of access to it for the US must have been a condition for a concession for the US. Though we can't know what the concession is, I would venture to guess that the status of "protector of oil" and the holder of the commensurate privelege of printing oil backed money in the Persian Gulf was in question, and the Chinese were among the candidates for the role, in competition or together with the French/EU. The US got to keep this role for a while longer in return for "fair" international access to all the oil not within the US. Part of this deal may have been the unloading of China's silver reserve to keep that market liquid. But this is all highly speculative.

There was the question of who pays for the non-economic production of oil where the US can put its hands on it. The answer was "everyone". OPEC share of oil supply went from 35% to 18% through the 70s in order to maintain the global dollar price at a value at which the US could be self-supporting with its own oil, as well as Mexican and Canadian oil. By 1986 US oil imports from OPEC were at 0.

Today, oil from OPEC is some 50% of imports to North America, but only 35% is from OPEC countries other than Venezuela. Which comes out to 22% of consumption and 14% of consumption, respectively.

Europe gets 37% of its oil consumption from OPEC (down from 40% in 98). 16%-20% from X USSR, which should rise within the next 5 years now that the "new" oil fields are available. (I don't believe they are new discoveries but old ones from the days of the old Shell corporation that initially developed them.)

The Pacific Rim, though is very much dependent on OPEC (77% of imports), and has been the great supplier of goods that make US living standards so high. These countries were the target of the dollar-gold-oil deal, it is they who are the holders of the proverbial bag (of dollars).






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