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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/6/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Gandalf the White (5/6/99; 22:40:29MDT - Msg ID:5684)
Aragorn III's quandary
Looking into my Crystal Ball and seeing where you are going with this --- I truly feel that the founding fathers did the best job of creating checks and balances to allow the most flexibility and freedoms that were possible. To have done this in such a short timeframe with need for so much give and take type negotions and have the resultant effort last for over 200 years is like the greatest thing mankind has yet accomplished ! I would also like to add Henry Ford to the list as his thoughts allowed the industry production methods to be revelutionized and generated the concepts of mass production which is the basis of increasing the welfare and wealth of humanity. OK A3, your turn !
<;-)

Aragorn III (5/6/99; 22:27:23MDT - Msg ID:5683)
Continuing with Goldfly, and any others with interest
I hope that I have not unduly influenced you with my suggestion of Thomas Jefferson, but I thought he would surely find the way onto the popular lists. If this did not color your thinking, then the larger fraction on your list could be generalized as American revolutionaries, or maybe Founding Fathers is the preferred term?
This confirms my own suspicion. We might easily add the authors of The Federalist papers James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay to build popular support for the draft Constitution. Other names could be cited for their role in this important time.

If we are agreed that these men as a class would make the consensus list of important and respected figures in U.S. history, my next question is--Is their position in public opinion merited, or a product of propaganda? I don't believe this to be a "trick" question.

got golden opinions?

Goldfly (5/6/99; 21:40:06MDT - Msg ID:5682)
Aragorn's List
Well how about:

George Washington
Ben Franklin
Sam Adams (Say, are these names familiar for some other reason?)
Abe Lincoln
Alvin York (Oops, out of the money on that one....)

Ok, so far all these people either got us into, through, or helped us win, a war. That can't be what you're driving at though...

How about someone more of a thinker?

Thomas Edison

You may wish you had given some parameters here....

Daniel Boone
Lewis and Clark

Let's see.... Risk takers? Innovators? Adventurers? People who carried REAL money? No? What then?

Got A's? (In history?)

GF

Richard, Oregon (5/6/99; 21:34:17MDT - Msg ID:5681)
Golden Age Of . . . . . . . GOLD!
Just my thoughts, of late, this evening. . . . After reading many a thought and idea for several months . . . . It seems to me that I may be living in the Golden Age Of GOLD. Gold has been down to nineteen year low(s) and is poised for release in the very near future. Prices today, most likely, will not be seen for at least another twenty years (if ever). What a time to be living. What a time to be aware of what is really happing in the financial world. What a great place to be, a table of round where ideas and thoughts are exchanged freely by many a gifted knight and lady. Enjoy this Golden Age with me, will you!

ET (5/6/99; 21:33:32MDT - Msg ID:5680)
Greenspan and y2k

Was anyone watching Greenspan this morning on CNBC? After stating that 'some disruptions were inevitable', CNBC cut away to their talking heads to reassure that all is well. Yourdon's forum had an interesting discussion of this new 'phenomenon' and I've clipped without permission someone's comments.

'Blue, There is no doubt that they cut away. However, I don't attach much to that that
hasn't been fully discussed many times on this forum.

To me, the significant thing is that Greenspan unequivocally said that some disruptions
are inevitable. Like de Jager, Greenspan offered no concrete examples of industries
achievement of compliance. He simply said billions of dollars have been spent.
Hauntingly similar to de Jager's illogical line of reassurance.

Frankly, he waffled on the money in the bank issue. He clearly said that keeping your
money in the bank would be "safest". He explained that if you took it out it would be
subject to being stolen.

Safest does not mean safe. If you or I said it, it might. Greenspan chooses his words
the way Monet chose colors. Carefully.

Greenspan today was a scary as I've heard. I presume that the cut away by CNBC
simply cut out more talk minimizing the perception of risk. So no harm done.

In my opinion, Greenspan is still sounding the alarm.'

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 06, 1999.

I think this guy is right. Greenspan understands the y2k problem and has to be sweatin' it. I have a newfound respect for old Al. I also think he is still sounding the alarm.

ET


Chicken man (5/6/99; 21:00:05MDT - Msg ID:5679)
Aristotle - Msg ID5549
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
Bet you thought I was going to skip out on you...?...first,may I extend my handshake to you?...better yet come on the front porch and we will have a rocking chair race while we discuss this thought...ok?
"maybe 20 years in the future the US dollar..." you, my friend would have to be called an optimist....I think-um that the US dollar in 20 years will be the same place that the mark was in 20 years later....stuffed in bureau drawers in the attic!!...father-in-law told that story when he was in WWII in Germany.....drawers and drawers FULL...! worthless...
True.... the social and economic turmoil would be awful to say the least....at that time the politicians would try "something"...they only have three choices; 1) pay off the entire debt ($22,500 per citizen....20.5 K iou's and 2K FRN )...in order to do this the taxpayers would have to cough up a chunk of change...volunteers anyone...? the politicians got us in this mess...don't think they are bright enough to get us out of it
2)renig on the debt...tell everbody the nation is sorry,but can't pay!
3)play the "try to fake em out" by issuing some sort of new "hybrid" type of debt or security.....ie..AG's 5 yr. "gold backed" loan .....the ole' beat you out of your money later than sooner....some suckers will buy that ...eh?
Forgot...#4, the tried and proven new world way...start running the printing presses FASTER!!
The greenback is caught "between a rock and a hard spot"....a golden rock perhaps..?

The markets always force the government to devalue...never the other way around...otherwise why devalue?

If we can't pay off a hunk of our national debt in the "good times"....how do we think we will pay off in the "hard times"....and hard times ALWAYS follow good times....in the last 8 yrs. or so our debt went from $3.5 trillion to $5.6 trillion....folks, THAT is a lotta money!!

So what is the fate of our bogus $....#1 ?, #2 ?,#3 ?...or good ole' #4.....the smell of fresh ink...ahhhh

Arisotle, my friend...forgot to tell you not to rock over the dog's tail....



Aragorn III (5/6/99; 20:57:19MDT - Msg ID:5678)
Goldfly, my friend...
I have been quite well, and have enjoyed the many good thoughts to be found here, though could not find the time to contrubute words of my own. Aristotle expects "the workings of life" from me. Perhaps he'll let me slide? If not, I offer "calories" by way of an answer. Further, if it is understood that gold is the only true money for civilization having entered "civilized" times, all else shall fall into place given the time for thought to connect the pieces. These connecting threads could be called the "details" of life, and are important to be sure. If you are falling from the sky, calories and gold will not save you, but the parachute will! Yet how easily these connecting threads become entangled and are revealed as useless without the working pieces of harness and chute, as true for calories and gold. I shall leave the further exploration to our valued friend.

Goldfly, you asked--How short is this list? As I count your contribution with all others thus far, it would sadly seem to stand at zero. Perhaps I could start the list of suggestions with with a contribution-- one Thomas Jefferson.

got others?

Goldfly (5/6/99; 20:42:04MDT - Msg ID:5677)
While it seems I have the floor....

June Gold unchanged at $290.70

GF


Goldfly (5/6/99; 20:33:49MDT - Msg ID:5676)
Aristotle

And where have you been today? I hope your not writing a book to try and answer my question from last night.

Oh, BTW, did you cast your lot for the Hall of Record? You didn't seem to clearly state that you were in favor. We still need 5 (I think) more votes!

GF

Goldfly (5/6/99; 20:11:00MDT - Msg ID:5675)
Aragorn!!

I was just about to write a post and send out an APB!!

Where have you been???

How short is this list?

GF



Goldfly (5/6/99; 20:04:14MDT - Msg ID:5674)
Peter- your 5654

Sorry buddy, I don't mean to rain on your parade. But this is war you know. The shorts are not going to go away quietly. They would love to have the line for gold all weekend long be "In the metals.... Gold was off $3 Friday...."

If we manage to close above 290 tomorrow, I'll be surprised. If gold goes up another couple of bucks, well, then maybe the tide IS changing....

GF

Aragorn III (5/6/99; 19:52:31MDT - Msg ID:5673)
A request for information
If one were to make inquiry into a short list of people who are generally viewed to be important and respected figures in U.S. history, what names might be expected to make the list of popular opinion?

I believe time shall reveal this line of thought to be related to gold, but I must watch it unfold.
got suggestions?

Richard, Oregon (5/6/99; 19:26:08MDT - Msg ID:5672)
CoBra(too) / Greenspan
Re: CoBra(too) (5/6/99; 16:29:23MDT - Msg ID:5667)
I'm embarssed to admit that I understand about as much of your post noted above as I do Mr G's talks. Could you please decrypt your post for me this one time? Richard

Chicken man (5/6/99; 18:32:10MDT - Msg ID:5671)
Christine
A very productive walk!.....why not another virtual curriency like the EURO....? keep everbody in a state of total confusion.....
If FOA or ANOTHER would like to comment as to "Will the Brits (LBMA) rescue the EURO ?

If gold goes to $1000 ,then the Euro would have reserves backed with 45-50% gold instead of 15%....right...?

Christine (5/6/99; 18:07:13MDT - Msg ID:5670)
What I left out of last post
I would welcome criticism or alternative perspective, woops-- I mean different fairytale.

Christine (5/6/99; 18:04:42MDT - Msg ID:5669)
New Fairytale--How the US gets electronic gold-linked currency
Had to take a long walk after I read YGM's latest June
rumor at USAGold. This is the fairytale (scenario) that came into my head as I was walking.

They will have to let things get bad enough, scare the
world, but especially scare the US. Then they will come
out with an announcement of what they are going to do to
save us.

What will scare us:
1. Stock market decline or crash
2. Dollar falling, euro rising
3. Price of oil rising
4. Gasoline shortages in US which are being orchestrated
as we speak.

What they will propose:
1. Have to compete with euro, stop world-wide collapse
etc. So, must have new international electronic currency
similar to euro to compete with euro.
2. What countries will be included at start--my guess is
US, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and?
3. POG then to be fixed at ??? my guess is 800 to
1200--enough to keep everyone happy, but far from true
value.

Long-term implications:
1. Eventual plan to combine governments, as with euro
2. POG still articificially low, manipulated.
3. Same old game, triple speed.

SteveH (5/6/99; 17:38:28MDT - Msg ID:5668)
June gold now...
$290.70 (is it time to pull out my TA of about four weeks ago yet?).

Daily gold is tracking up its upper bollinger band. Expect one to three more up days before a sider or downer. Weekly gold upper bollinger now at $298.50. Last five weeks have been up per chart I am seeing. Five weeks are the most 'up' weeks in a row since January.

At what point does gold jump $20.00? Where are the big stops at? $300? Where?



CoBra(too) (5/6/99; 16:29:23MDT - Msg ID:5667)
Busy, getting your gold?
The first syllable in my handle has just appreciated exactly 55% price(un-?) wise in the last 2 days...( no touting it's not the symbol,and lot's of co's around), considering it's a junior. Not bad, though it depreciated about 90% since 96, like most of the explorers and developers (even after proven reserve/resource of a couple of million oz's in optimal area as in this case). Q? remains- what's mineable or 'forwardable'? Who will care tomorrow, IMHO not the junior again.

MK and all thank you for your relentless endeavours pro gold. I'll better get back working at it too, but won't stop listening to the esteemed knights of the round table.
Good luck to all!



TownCrier (5/6/99; 15:44:22MDT - Msg ID:5666)
Euro/dollar falls at U.S. close after buoyant day
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/bkp.html
This is a thorough end-of-day wrap-up.

Christine (5/6/99; 15:38:35MDT - Msg ID:5665)
YGM
Noticeable decrease in energy in gold-net country when Yukon gold miner not around! Geeeeeeez--what info. If you don't get a chance to post it around, I will pass it along. Chris

YGM (5/6/99; 15:30:10MDT - Msg ID:5664)
@ Christine
Chris: Remember awhile back when I clarified my info
that started the June rumour I closed by saying there was
more on the subject?? WELL my 2 banker associates
"both" told me the Bildeberger Conference would be a
defining moment for Gold and changes I would not believe
yet would make me happy and increase my wealth. Now I
am still very much in the dark as to what they meant but I
have to feel they and MANY others know something about
these defining changes for Gold. Far too many smoking
guns for there not to be bodies buried in the shadows of
the forest.YGM.

TownCrier (5/6/99; 15:20:17MDT - Msg ID:5663)
Bridge NY Precious Metals Review
By Ross Allen, Bridge News
New York--May 6--
Gold clawed out gains, with heavy call-options activity both a symptom
and an indicator of rising bullish sentiment in the gold market. Especially
heavy open-interest is seen in $290 and $295 calls for Jun and Jly expiry.
"There's a little inflation psychology that's been creeping into the gold
market," said Bill O'Neill, an analyst with Merrill Lynch. "Stocks came under a
little bit of pressure, the bond market's under tremendous pressure and the
dollar was a little weak. The only thing that was somewhat negative was the oil
market, but that's had a pretty good run up."
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, today indicated that
inflation is a concern, with tight labor markets remaining a "critical upside
risk."
"The Greenspan talk plays into what the risks to the economy are and they
are all of higher inflation," noted William Griggs, managing director of Griggs
& Santow.
Gold is typically treated as a hedge against inflation and system risk;
however, it has lost some of its usefulness as a store-of-value as various
financial hedges have appeared in recent decades. [such as LTCM?! (sorry, couldn't resist)--T.C.]

--Jun gold (GCM9) at $290.70, up $2.20; RANGE: $291.20-288.10

Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission

TownCrier (5/6/99; 14:10:45MDT - Msg ID:5662)
Euro strengthens as rates are held
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_336000/336859.stm
Euro now at a three-week high, with focus now on gaining confidence on the international markets.

TownCrier (5/6/99; 14:05:17MDT - Msg ID:5661)
Shares: Boom or bust
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_334000/334893.stm
Wall Street cynics point to the fact that US market analysts are issuing hardly any "sell" recommendations anymore, as their firms are ever closer intertwined with the companies that they are supposed to rate.

TownCrier (5/6/99; 13:53:36MDT - Msg ID:5660)
FOCUS-West and Russia agree Kosovo strategy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/bef.html
Utterly hopeless...


TownCrier (5/6/99; 13:41:20MDT - Msg ID:5659)
FWN Closing NY Metals: Mostly Higher; Technicals Help Gold
New York-May 6-FWN--The precious metals complex ended
the day mostly higher, with gold looking stronger
technically and palladium generating follow-through after a
technical reversal on Wednesday.
June gold futures closed $2.20 firmer at $290.70.
"We've sort of got gold on a little bit of a technical
breakout here," said Tim Evans, senior commodity analyst
with Pegasus Econometrics. "Last week, we hinted at it with
the move through some resistance at $287.70. But we weren't
sure then whether we meant it or not.
"Now, the market looks like it really means it."

He pointed out that the pullback in the equity and bond
markets are factors normally favorable to gold.
"But so far I see this as primarily short covering in
nature and not really a function of anybody liking gold from
the long side all that much," said Evans.
While a new Commitments of Traders report is due out
Friday, the analyst reminded that the last one nearly two
weeks ago showed that the funds were heavily short. "And
because they were heavily short, that suggests there is
significant upward potential here, even on the basis of
short covering," said Evans.
Evans put initial support at previously failed
resistance of $287.70, then Tuesday's $286.20 low.
Resistance was pegged at $293, then the $300 to $302
area.

(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN

TownCrier (5/6/99; 13:36:44MDT - Msg ID:5658)
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19990506.htm
Excerpts from: The American economy in a world context
At the 35th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
May 6, 1999

...Our negative personal saving rate indicates that the wealth effect is alive and well. The latter has unquestionably been a key factor in the rise in domestic demand, which despite productivity improvements has exerted increasing pressure on labor markets. Thus, should equity markets retrench, consumer and business investment demands would, doubtless, weaken considerably.

A more distant concern, but one that cannot be readily dismissed, is the very condition that has enabled the surge in American household and business demands to help sustain global stability: our rising trade and current account deficits. There is a limit to how long and how far deficits can be sustained, since current account deficits add to net foreign claims on the United States.

It is very difficult to judge at what point debt service costs become unduly burdensome and can no longer be sustained. There is no evidence at this point that markets are disinclined to readily finance our foreign net imbalance. But the arithmetic of foreign debt accumulation and compounding interest costs does indicate somewhere in the future that, unless reversed, our growing international imbalances are apt to create significant problems for our economy...

...To return to my opening question: can we project how long the economy of the United States can act as a buffer to weakness elsewhere?

The answer: not easily. History counsels us that sharp changes in direction are rarely, if ever, anticipated. Indeed, were these changes readily apparent, presumably, businesses would adjust to that anticipation and, hence, significantly damp the cyclical tendencies in the economy.

The outlook for the American economy is particularly relevant to the realization of a full recovery of East Asia. To be sure, there are definite signs of activity bottoming out in Indonesia and Hong Kong and evidence of some gains in Thailand and Malaysia, with the most progress reported in Korea. Japan, whose economy is considerably larger than the rest of East Asia combined, excluding China, is still bedeviled by its inability to restore a vibrant banking system, though they seem to be making some progress.

But the emergence of East Asia out of its severe crisis, though real, remains fragile. The very improvements now under way could be threatening the resolve of a number of countries to adhere to the disciplined plans that have been instrumental in their recovery to date.

Brazil has managed to stem a prospective implosion that followed in the wake of its currency crisis. But there, as well as some other parts of Latin America that seem to have dodged the bullet of a Brazilian-induced contagion, the potential for a letdown in their policy discipline that has served them well, also is a concern.

But, in general, discipline is likely to hold, because the lessons of 1997 and 1998 are too recent and vivid to be soon forgotten. Hence, with a little backing and filling, the emerging nation crises of the last two years are likely to gradually dissipate and these countries should move onto a significant recovery path. The overhang of debt and difficult unresolved structural problems, however, are likely to keep a vigorous recovery at bay. But, in the end, their outlook will be influenced importantly by developments in Japan, Europe, and especially the United States.

In Europe, gains in real GDP have remained modest, though inflation appears nonexistent. Arguably, the rapidity of the introduction of cutting-edge technologies has not seemed to be as evident in Europe as in the United States. Though somewhat puzzling, this is surely temporary, unless the thrust of innovation in the United States comes to an unexpected halt, or existing rigidities in European markets unexpectedly persist in the face of growing international competition. Europe, as a consequence, is likely to remain a positive contributor to world economic stability in the years ahead.

Let me conclude with an observation I have made before: We policymakers have been engaged in a lot of on-the-job training in recent years. The remarkable American economy, whose roots are still not conclusively known, and the Asian crises that caught us by surprise, among other humbling experiences, have made policymakers particularly sensitive to how fast the world can shift beneath our feet. We need to be alert to the dramatic changes that are continuously confronting us, but recognize that neither the fundamental laws of economics, nor human nature, on which they are based, has changed, or is likely to change. This will be an especially important notion to keep in mind as we continue to grapple with the rapidly changing global economic environment and its regulatory structure, which this symposium has been convened to address.

Peter Asher (5/6/99; 12:01:13MDT - Msg ID:5657)
Another Jump
Spot just popped up to +2.70 & 30 yr. T-bonds just tanked

CoBra(too) (5/6/99; 11:29:40MDT - Msg ID:5656)
Papermoney
The improving sentiment of real money is also improving my spirits as I see some of my favorite goldies heading north impressively as I reminiscened about my last trip stateside, noticing that most gas stations, while leaving their cash registers unlocked, lock their toilets. Could it be they value the paper there higher than the one with the goverment's ink on making it totally worthless as Mark Twain already remarked in his time. What's really changed? The concept of reality and economic cycles seems to catch up eventually on the new era crowd. AG's address today was as I interpret it pretty clear on overvaluation, inflation and real (vs virtual) values.
@Christine re. Bilderberger. Called upon one of the 3 ( I know in Autriche) BB's, a former senior partner at my old bank and a l.t. pres.of the industrialist under a different context, of course. Anyway, he confirmed the meeting - and changed the subject. June it is and early June at that- BTW.
We'll watch paper turn yellow (ooops golden, gilded...) together, yes.



TownCrier (5/6/99; 11:08:25MDT - Msg ID:5655)
U.S. Treasuries lower, Greenspan sparks rate fears
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/7s.html
``The market is getting creamed,'' said one trader.

Peter Asher (5/6/99; 11:06:03MDT - Msg ID:5654)
Knights to the Ramparts, Cynics to the moats
<``The difficulty in this market is expanding the participation once you have got the shorts covered. It's
a small constituency,'' the dealer added.>

Yes, but (per my 'rerun post' this morning) Gold is a thin issue. As the roar of the tornado appoaches, all heads are turning to te market exits. Gold is, as the Air Force was to Richard Gere in "Officer and a Gentleman", when he said "I got nowhere else to go"!!

GOLDFLY: don't be a party pooper. This is starting to look like the real thing. Todays power surge is happening even wiyh a retreat in Oil. What I thing is most sugnificant is Gold/T-bonds!

Goldfly (5/6/99; 10:42:29MDT - Msg ID:5653)
Looks like the shorts went to lunch........
http://www.kitco.com/image/nygold.gif

I'm not getting excited, tomorrow is when they'll try to slam the POG.

GF

Peter Asher (5/6/99; 10:29:36MDT - Msg ID:5652)
The External Revenue Service ???
I don't scare easily, but this is a horror movie!!

<The agenda for the meeting is said to
include a "globilaztion summit", during
which nations which cling tenaciously to
their sovereign identities will be
denounced by its leadership.

The principal feature of Bilderberg is that
it seeks one global government, (a
structure similar to the European Union),
while counteracting nationalist sentiment is
supposedly its greatest battle. Renewed
calls for the United Nations to be able to
directly tax all people of the world is said
to be another major topic to be tabled for
discussion in Sintra.>

The 10 cent 'defense stamps' that people saved into a war bond, had a pictue of the Corcord 'Minute Man' on it. The first militia !!

In the 1700s' there was Boston and tea, Now maybe it will be Seattle , Toyotas and Wet Suits.

TownCrier (5/6/99; 10:11:58MDT - Msg ID:5651)
Gold firms on inflation talk, commodities uptick
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990506/3a.html
A London bullion dealer confessed to "a sneaking affection for gold following months of coolness." Could this be Redd Foxx, maybe? :-)

TownCrier (5/6/99; 9:57:24MDT - Msg ID:5650)
Hear ye! Hear ye! Goldfly's words are an uncanny in light of this announcement yesterday.
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html
[A repeat, in case you missed it]
Hear ye! Hear ye! All good Knights and Ladies: I direct your attention to The Gilded Opinion

"Bankers, (real ones) are always aware of the potential for a meltdown and the economic game doesn't go on without their involvement. Commerce requires that all transactions have to be paid for, which means financed. A good look at a list of bullion banks is also revealing since many of the "old" names in banking are also the "old" names in bullion dealing. However, you don't see too many "old" names on the share registers of high flying internet stocks. The "old" bankers have seen it all before and their guidelines go back several hundred years."

"Patriarchs may come and go but established banking guidelines do not change. That's the advantage of experience and an understanding of the cyclical nature of commerce and economics. "To hell with the new age theory, give me the gold any day", may well be their motto."

"The fallback position of European Central Banking and of the old established European family banking groups has always been gold bullion."

Read this entire commentary, "The Winds of Change: An Investment Strategy Beyond the Year 2000", reproduced at USAGOLD's Gilded Opinon by permission of AurumBank Incorporated. Clink the link, select "The Winds of Change" from the index, and return to the Round Table with your opinions that we all value.

TownCrier (5/6/99; 9:49:17MDT - Msg ID:5649)
Hear ye! Hear ye! An information update at USAGOLD!
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html
Now updated at the page "This Week in Gold" is the always excellent recount of events by George Milling-Stanley of The World Gold Council in his WEEKLY GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY.

Click on the link above to review the behind-the-scenes events that shaped the gold market for April 26 - April 30, 1999. And by popular demand, the archive has been retained and expanded!

Grab your torch and venture down the hall--eleventh door on your left.

Goldfly (5/6/99; 9:43:20MDT - Msg ID:5648)
Greenspan Warns Of Risks To U.S. Economy
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ts/story.html?s=v/nm/19990506/ts/economy_fed_greenspan_2.html

``I do not say we are in a new era, because I have experienced too many alleged new eras in my lifetime
that have come and gone,'' he said.

'Nuff said.



Christine (5/6/99; 9:18:17MDT - Msg ID:5647)
Bildeberger meeting--for conspiracy theorists
I have posted before how there has been a rumor at Gold-Eagle forum that originated in February, l999 re: POG being ALLOWED to start rising in June, l999. The rumor has been hypothesized as having somthing to do with the introduction of euro. Since that time there have been a number of unusual coincidences relating to June, especially the announcement of G Sachs IPO for early May, not too long after the rumor came out. Now this report of the Bildeberger meeting June 2-7, 1999.

USAGOLD (5/6/99; 9:07:57MDT - Msg ID:5646)
Miscellaneous Quacking...
Christine: My post under the heading "Quack!" should have made reference to "junque" -- as in $10,000 tulip bulbs which reach maturity at 50¢.

Steve: The NYTimes must have seen my market report yesterday and called in good ole Floyd to remedy the situation. It had to have been a good two days since we had a major anti-gold propaganda piece in major publication.

Peter: The problem I see with making stocks currency is what we should call "The Greenspan Dilemna". Raise interest rates and you pull the plug on the stock market. Leave them alone and you have eventually have water flowing over the top of the bucket into goods and services -- a classic price inflation. My advice to those who have made extraordinary paper profits in the stock market would be to take out 25% and convert to real money -- now while you can. If the equity inflation continues that 25% will be made up soon enough by more funny-money-stock-value. If the plug is pulled, you will have preserved some of your gains through gold ownership. If the stock market bubble continues to inflate after conversion, wait until it rises sufficiently then do the same thing all over again. Please keep these instructions with your stock portfolio file.

Junk your junque.

Off to the office. Quack.

USAGOLD (5/6/99; 8:38:21MDT - Msg ID:5645)
Today's Gold Market Report: It's All Dollar Related
MARKET UPDATE (5/6/99): Gold continued its strong move toward the $290 barrier in
an uptrend that began about mid-session in New York yesterday, carried over to Asian
trading and then gathered pace in London. Gold seemed to be reacting to the strong
performances of the euro and yen (to a lesser degree) over the past few trading days. The
down move in the dollar began just after the IMF meeting in Washington which ended in
rancor among major G-7 partners. Gold has responded, for the most part, to what appears
to be a change in fundamentals in the currency markets -- a change which has included
unusually strong pressure on the 30-year Treasury bond. Traders, concerned that we might
be in for a period of dollar weakness, have begun to unwind various carry trade positions
that rely on a strong dollar and this in turn is touching off short covering. There was a
report on Reuters yesterday afternoon that traders were unwinding Swiss franc carry trade
positions amidst growing concern that the euro/Swiss franc rallies were for real. One
should probably assume that the rally in gold also contains an element of short-covering. A
London trader quoted in Reuters London report this morning said that gold strength had to
do with a speculative showdown taking place in New York -- "a tug of war between
different speculators." There was no further elaboration. Amidst all the action, the XAU
gold stock index rose to a 5 1/2 month high continuing a trend from the 60 level to nearly
80 yesterday -- a 30% gain in just a little over 30 days. Our Canadian friends will not be
pleased to know that the Canadian government sold more gold in April (with minimal
impact on the market) and is now down to 2.2 million ounces -- now down to a dismal 70
tons. If history is a teacher, Canadians would be well served to put themselves on the gold
standard. When a country depletes its gold reserves, the currency goes in the tank and the
currency holders become the victims of the government's misguided policies.

That's it for today. Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.

 

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JA (5/6/99; 8:30:57MDT - Msg ID:5644)
Bilderbergers
http://www.the-news.net/
The Bilderbergers are having a meeting again and I didn't get invited.

Clint H (5/6/99; 7:50:37MDT - Msg ID:5643)
Goldfly # 5633
Goldfly. Thanks for the music. One man's JUNK is another man's treasure. Last laugh...last laugh...last laug...;)

Gandalf the White (5/6/99; 7:13:19MDT - Msg ID:5642)
Oops --- not awake yet !
THAT IS 290.2 !!!

Gandalf the White (5/6/99; 7:07:52MDT - Msg ID:5641)
I am here now Peter and I can hear Steve celebrating on the east coast !
GC9M just hit 190.2 on large volume !
<;-)

SteveH (5/6/99; 2:27:18MDT - Msg ID:5640)
Peter
Holy cow Batman. Spot 288.00, June gold now...$289.40. VSE index up to 453.41.

Good thoughts you had there.



SteveH (5/6/99; 2:16:20MDT - Msg ID:5639)
What is this guy putting in his pancakes (and who has he been ...
talking to?

Date:
Thursday, May 06, 1999 03:56 PM



By FLOYD NORRIS
THE NEW YORK TIMES

NEW YORK -- Is gold on its way to
becoming just another commodity?
The people who run the world's
financial system are doing their best
to secure that fate for the metal that
once was viewed as the only "real"
money.

The process of removing the glitter
from gold has been a gradual but
inexorable one, and is one of the
most telling counters to the argument
that national governments are less
important in this era of globalisation.
Much of the world now is quite happy
to accept the idea that a greenback
backed by US Federal Reserve Board
chairman Alan Greenspan is just as
good as one backed by gold.

Certainly gold's reputation as a store
of value has eroded. At the peak of
the gold frenzy in 1980, an ounce of
gold cost US$873, precisely that
day's level of the Dow Jones
industrial average. Now the Dow is at
11,014, about 38 times higher than
the US$287.60 ( S$485 ) price of gold.


Actually, that measurement
understates the amount by which
stocks have out-performed gold. If
you had owned stocks all those
years, you would have received
substantial dividends. If you owned a
lot of gold, you got no dividends but
did have to pay storage fees for the
stuff.

That is, in fact, how the central
bankers of the world look at gold
these days. International Monetary
Fund managing director Michel
Camdessus last week said he expects
the fund to sell gold for the first time
in two decades. The Clinton
administration is pushing for such IMF
sales to help finance a programme to
forgive debts owed by very poor
countries.

The money received from the gold
sales is to be invested in government
securities that will provide income,
and that income will pay off the
loans.

The assumption is that gold, which
does not pay interest, is a lousy
investment.

A couple of weeks ago, the Swiss
electorate voted to begin untying the
Swiss franc from its gold backing.
The Swiss central bank could begin
selling gold as early as next year.
Once again, the argument was that
selling gold was a way to find easy
money for good deeds. To those who
still view gold as the only real money,
having the Swiss defect is a bit like
discovering that Rome is embracing
Protestantism. It seems likely that
more central banks will join those
that have already begun selling gold.

The argument against retaining gold
is that its day is past. Once it was
useful as a hedge against inflation
that would hold its value when paper
currencies did not. Now financial
markets have their own sophisticated
ways to hedge against inflation.

Once gold served as protection for
investors against governments that
debased their currencies. But the
lesson people have drawn is to
believe in the dollar. Dollarisation
amounts to a sort of a gold standard
without gold. There would be a
universal money whose value was
based not on gold, but on the wisdom
of Mr Greenspan and his successors
at the Federal Reserve Board. If the
de-monetisation of gold continues,
the price is likely to keep falling as
central-bank sales more than offset
any increase in demand from jewellers
or industrial users. That could change
if it turns out that central bankers
are not the geniuses they are now
deemed to be. But for now, the world
believes in Mr Greenspan and sees
little need for gold.



Peter Asher (5/6/99; 1:05:57MDT - Msg ID:5638)
Yo, Gandalf, you awake ????
Steve's going to go berserk when he gets up, if this trend continues for a few more hours. 289.4 & spot up .85.

Peter Asher (5/6/99; 0:53:37MDT - Msg ID:5637)
Post Review
Tonight's post by Michael #5629, gave me a feeling of deja vu on two things I said way back. (#--#) When looking back through my USAG folder for them, I discovered one was in my first ever Post, #785. There was also a follow up later that day, (Oct 25) #795, and then when I found the other, in my third post, #875 -1 Nov, I saw a continuity in the threesome. So, kind of as an experiment, (and to avoid archive tasking) I removed all irrelevant prattle and put them together for a re-run as a single entity.. ( I'm glad I said "perhaps", in the first sentence). The early part of this is a bit out of date, but the rest is fundamentally maybe more pertinent now.

Last weeks five-day Dow chart of five-minute blips shows a classic bouncing ball, losing its momentum and perhaps breaking through to resume the downtrend of the season. The fundamentals behind this would appear to be (1) hedge funds et al having huge paper "losses" which would result in massive debt if realized, and (2) major institutions conferring with Greenspan and "bailing out" LTCM.

These institutions are not (always) fools. Therefore, the fix is in. A "surprise" interest rate cut creates a psychological rally which now runs out of steam as the funds square off positions, and equities resume their travel toward real value (Dow 5000??).

The true situation propelled gold to $304 before the Fed/banker pep rally got the investing public hyped up again on the impossible dream. The stampede through Dow 8600 threw water on the "safe haven" fire.

My commodity broker describes the global financial world as a giant parking garage for money, with everyone seeking the best space. He then describes the American pension funds, IRA's etc. as a huge glacier moving massive amounts of money into the garage.

So, for these investors to go for gold, there must be the expectation of profit. For that to occur, there must be a believable uptrend. So what makes gold go up? Supply and Demand of course. However, while gold is a finite resource, it is nevertheless a commodity and does not produce anything. The booming economy of the decade has obviously not created a price-raising demand. That leaves (1) the rush to a safe haven, or (2) the potential for profit from a declining currency value in the country of the gold investor. When and if these factors occur, then the uptrend that will attracts the "followers" will be upon us.

Here are some further thoughts on that "glacier." Pension funds, automatically, and IRA's etc., voluntarily, keep generating money needing a place to park, as long as the "economy" stays in gear. Now, spending stock market profits is, in effect, spending some of the investment money of the guy you sold it to. He doesn't have it any more. It's not "in the Market." What is "in the Market" is what he gets when he sells it. So, in a sense,# stock securities are a global currency like dollars, franks, marks and yen,# serving as a storage of value which can go up or down for similar reasons. As currencies are traded like commodities, the dumping of a nation's currency can cause a loss of productivity due to less sales (exports). That's sort of the tail wagging the dog, since in a healthy economic environment, the productivity would determine the value of the currency. Likewise, a recession can curtail the momentum of the investment "glacier". Or the collapse of the value of this stock market currency can create the recession. Anyway it goes down, when the mutual fund redemption stampede heads for the Market exits, a lot of what's still got wheels will be parking in Gold.

Just in time to celebrate the current holiday! The *trick* of default and devaluation was deflected by the *treat* of 95 billion dollars in IMF loans. So, Nations A, B, and C turn money over to Nations E, F, and G to pay creditors. The funds keep changing hands, circulating the global scene as ledger entries, earning interest as they go.

I remember, as a teenager, one friend saying to another to whom he owed money, "I'd rather owe it to you than do you out of it." #As long as you call a loan "a loan", it's not in default#. All debt gets "squared off" by (a) the earnings of increased production facilitated by the new capital, (2) confiscation of tax payers' money or (3) default. Therefore if, for example, the contributing nation spends less on, say, welfare, in order to hand over funds to the receiving nation, who then increases production capability, things could get better. But, if potential productive capital is depleted in order to lend it to other nations for various squanderers' activities, then things get worse. Sooner or later, original debt and the growing interest balance due will overwhelm the system.

So we have here on Planet Earth a small group of Mr. Spocks, applying Vulcan logic to the games of currency, stocks, bonds and commodities and being amazed at the antics we see, while there's a mass of Dr. McCoys out there saying, "Gold's dead, Jim."

This brings me to the subject of trading "spikes" mentioned by MK and others in recent posts. < I was considering a "spike" to be a sharp move up followed by an immediate sharp move back down>

First of all, since Gold is a single entity in its trading mechanics, it will behave much more as a thinly-traded issue than as a stock market or major stock issue. Secondly, Gold is more likely to be held as a cash potential.

Selling pressure can come from something being out of favor or it can come from a desire to convert a large quantity to cash. It is basic to trading that to sell a large quantity of stocks or commodities, one must "sell into strength." So if there is "overhead supply," waiting for strength to sell into, then a run-up in price will be met by a quantity of selling, and hence the spike.

Only when the desire to hold gold creates more demand than the desire or need to sell it, can the price move up and stay there. Copyright by Peter Asher 5 May 1999.



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