All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
TownCrier (3/5/04; 22:12:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 118112)
Solomon -- red light, green light
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html
And more to the point, even if the system works perfectly such that the other light DOES show red while yours shows green, there's still the unaccountable occurance of counterparty risk... the player who doesn't own up to his obligation. Saying, "My light was green!" as you're carted off in a meatwagon doen't go very far in getting your legs back, does it?
R.
By the way... USAGOLD~Centennial has just launched the March "Buyers' Group" Special. Actually, the email notices won't be sent until Monday, but anyone passing through here is more than welcome to get a jump on the limited supply of 200 coins. Danish Mermaids they are.
TomJIl (3/5/04; 22:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 118111)
Sol W: derivatives
Poor old Solomon wrote:
: Please pardon me from stepping in on your comment
: about derivatives being simply a "bet" on something.
Not at all. I appreciate it.
: I believe that at the outset, and in general,
: derivatives were meant to remove the "bet", the
: "gamble". For example, a corn farmer planting in
: the spring can lock in the price of his harvest
: (or part of it) by "selling" in the futures market.
It seems to me that in both this case and the others which you've noted or that I am otherwise aware of, a derivative is indeed a 'bet' that a certain thing will or will not happen. It's simply that it is used to counter against another 'bet' (which you may have as a side effect of doing business) that would rather not have risk associated with.
Again, my main question is could the PPI be a factor in derivatives. I ask because it seems to make more sense to simply bet on interest rates rather than a factor which could influence them if that is what one wishes to hedge against (and it is obviously a big one for the GSE's at least.) Of course, I'm mainly seeking a plausible reason for the extreame delay of the PPI since I'm dubious that simple embarrasment would cause such an event.
: The gravest danger in derivatives is not that they
: are "bets" but rather that many sophisticated and large
: entities trust and rely on them...just like one trusts
: in traffic that if you have a green light in your
: direction, the signal shows red in the other direction.
It seems to me that the greatest danger is that they have the potential to tie huge amounts of money into a very complex web of relationships and dependencies.
I envision a fence that they place against a crumbly rock cliff along side the road. Normally it keeps little rock-slides from being a problem, but if the installation is not correct, a falling rock could dislodge it and it could take cause grief along the whole face of the cliff.
When I did road construction work, we had inspectors making sure we did our job right since left to our own devices we would cheat to save money. It seems to me that everyone wants very badly to keep any oversight away from derivatives, and it's making me wonder why?
Remarx (3/5/04; 21:56:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 118110)
Oops
By "here", I meant "here in the USA" in the previous message.
Remarx (3/5/04; 21:55:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 118109)
Gold Dinars
Can one purchase Islamic gold dinars? Forgive me if this is old territory already traveled, but I think they now exist and was wondering why I haven't seen them available here.
Solomon Weaver (3/5/04; 21:30:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 118108)
Tom J....what a derivative is.
Tom J
Please pardon me from stepping in on your comment about derivatives being simply a "bet" on something.
I believe that at the outset, and in general, derivatives were meant to remove the "bet", the "gamble". For example, a corn farmer planting in the spring can lock in the price of his harvest (or part of it) by "selling" in the futures market.
An exporter, having contractually agreed to ship goods in coming months, accepting payment in local currency of the country he exports to, may use a derivative trade in his own currency vs. the client currency, to assure that he would not suffer from a loss in the value of the payment currency (at the same time, he hands the upside to the person at the other end of the trade).
The gravest danger in derivatives is not that they are "bets" but rather that many sophisticated and large entities trust and rely on them...just like one trusts in traffic that if you have a green light in your direction, the signal shows red in the other direction.
Poor old Solomon
Solomon Weaver (3/5/04; 21:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 118107)
Hedonic
Goldilox
Interesting that word.....funny how people coin new uses of old words......imagine that you are a Japanese person who takes a nightly visit to the "sento" (public hot bath)...you pay a small fee of 50 yen....then one day the owner of the sento buys an energy efficient furnace to heat the bath.....so he raises the temperature of the water at no additional cost to you (and none to him either). Now, your water is just that much warmer that you now derive pleasure from the bath. Since you are benefiting in only a "hedonic fashion" and there is no increase to the GDP, the government decides they must find a way to measure the improvement in your standard of living.
I believe that one of the pitfalls society has made is that we (and our elected governments) are too dependant on statistical measurements.....numbers in some fashion. I have learned several foreign languages as an adult, and it has made me aware of how much modern man uses numbers in his/her speech. Try observing peoples conversations and notice this.
I have noticed an interesting element of this......every morning on my way to work I notice that the radio announcer says how many points up or down the Dow and NASDAC are....like telling me the weather.
At the same time, we are not usually giving numbers to virtures such as honesty, prudence, saving, generosity, a fool may lose his numeric fortune, but a prudent person is not measured in one event. A thief makes the news and the amount he takes is published, but an honest person quietly takes home his paycheck. We brag about the outlay for an SUV or a HDTV, but the saver quietly donates his worth to a fund for a rainy day.
Do you tell your wife/husband ...."tonight I love you 17 units"? Does a man tell the woman he holds a door for "let me help you for 3.6 seconds"?
Hedonic adjustments to GDP are just the symptom of the need to measure all, and believe only in the measureable.
Poor old Solomon
Waverider (3/5/04; 21:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 118106)
Commodities Bull Breakout!
http://www.zealllc.com/2004/crbout.htm
"Believe it or not, one of the most amazing market developments in decades has just transpired! The venerable CRB Commodities Index, a basket of 17 key commodities, has gloriously broken free from its nearly two-decade-old overhead resistance and is now ready to target its all-time highs of the early 1980s!
It is hard to believe, but right now today the venerable CRB Commodities Index is at its third highest peak in its entire half-century history! The index is within a couple percent of its 283.0 reading from March 1984, 20 years ago, and after that level falls only the stunning 334.8 CRB all-time-high from November 1980 will remain. The highest commodity price levels in modern history are only 20% or so away now, a truly breathtaking achievement in an era where paper investments are universally thought to reign supreme."
Waverider: Adam Hamilton is hot - a great read on historical price trends of the CRB, inflation, and PM's - don't miss the charts!
TomJIl (3/5/04; 20:20:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 118105)
PPI MIA
A while ago, I tried educating myself a little about what a 'derivative' is. As best I can determine it seems to be a somewhat free-form bet on just about anything. Can anyone tell me if some derivatives may be a bet on, say, the BLS's 1/2004 PPI reading?
On a totally different subject related to India and outsourcing as per a post of a few days ago, it is a subject which I have some experiance with. I had the distinct pleasure of assisting Indian engineers in taking over my software engineering job, and even got to take a trip over there (as a now contractor) to see how they were getting on.
I would say that it is probably true that it takes more Indian engineers to do the same work as we did. I think that it is an artifact of a society that is used to cronic underemployment. I saw a back-hoe sitting idle on a construction site while women moved dirt in baskets on their heads. The whole society needs underemployment to be 'healthy' in a way. I don't expect that this sentiment would last forever in the software engineering world for several reasons. One is that a number of Indian engineers who are used to the American style of work are going home. Another is that the engineers are very smart and on an individual level, have shown the ability to be competative (note that only one in a million or so can get into school in the first place.)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/5/04; 20:03:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 118104)
Your friend in the business, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
RAP (3/5/04; 18:45:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 118103)
melda laure @ Gold products
Gold produces the most valuable thing I have:
peace of mind!
Goldilox (3/5/04; 17:19:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 118102)
Hedonic - Websters definition
he·don·ic ( P ) Pronunciation Key (h-dnk)
adj.
1) Of, relating to, or marked by pleasure.
2) Of or relating to hedonism or hedonists.
he·don·ism ( P ) Pronunciation Key (hdn-zm)
n.
Pursuit of or devotion to pleasure, especially to the pleasures of the senses.
Philosophy. The ethical doctrine holding that only what is pleasant or has pleasant consequences is intrinsically good.
Psychology. The doctrine holding that behavior is motivated by the desire for pleasure and the avoidance of pain.
Goldilox:
Does this mean they adjust the numbers "for their pleasure"?
melda laure (3/5/04; 17:12:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 118101)
(No Subject)
I think MArtha's Hubby just got kinda freaked out... Must've tried to fill up the closet too fast. wink!
Is gold wealth GAB, well.... Is it an investment? Hmmm... I invest in stocks. I SAVE in gold. Quite frankly, while I could compute an "equivalent yield" for gold, I dont think that it is particularly helpful. Of course you can invest in lots of things. Anything that produces wealth is a potential invstment. Gold produces nothing. At best it is a savings.
But at least it's real.
Psst, I've got a couple of old numenorean series EE ten talent gold payable in SA3318. It has the seal of Sauron and The king of Gold on it. Bring a diving bell if you want to collect on it...
Paper Avalanche (3/5/04; 16:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 118100)
@ Federal Reserves
WOWSERS! I wonder what Bill Gross at Pimco is telling his clients about the delay of the PPI.
Have a great weekend! And remember, there is NO inflation.
PAPER AVALANCHE
TownCrier (3/5/04; 16:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 118099)
spotlight -- "core inflation" exclusions
In an apparent abuse of the vernacular, "core inflation" is the term used to describe what's left after the food and energy indices are excluded from consideration among the other price indices of housing, apparel, transportation, medical, recreation, education, etc.
R.
Solomon Weaver (3/5/04; 16:31:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 118098)
a 9 page .pdf file describing core inflation
http://www.bsp.gov.ph/downloads/Primer%20Core%20Inflation.pdf
CPI excludes food and energy, because they are volatile.
It also excludes gold bullion (smile) and uses a hedonic deflator for silver based electronic components.
Poor old Solomon
Boilermaker (3/5/04; 16:21:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 118097)
Dow Jones Index
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=INDEX_INDU&v=d12
With most markets in the throes of volatility the good ole Dow just keeps on rollin'. I think I'll cash in my gold and get me some blue chips. Must be a sure thang.
Federal_Reserves (3/5/04; 16:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 118096)
DOBBS trap doors CLINTOON on outsourcing!
LOU nails CLINTOON! After mouthing support for US workers, LOU NAILS her, revealing the two faced nature of our congress! NICE JOB LOU DOBBS! Watch Lou "no jobs" Dobbs on CNN each night. We need to rid the congress of double dealing politicians backstabbing US WORKERS! Demo's, Repubs, the whole lot of them! Fire the SOB's.
CLINTON: Well, Lou, I think your cautionary note is exactly right. We need a little more humility too. We don't have all the answers, but one thing we can be sure of, if we do nothing, we're going to continue to export American jobs. And that's not only bad for America, that's bad for the entire global economy.
You know, I think of the global economy as an inverted triangle, resting on the shoulders of the American consumer. And if the American consumer cannot have enough disposable income in order to maintain a standard of living that creates more opportunities generation after generation, that's bad for everybody. So it is in our interest to create this bipartisan consensus.
DOBBS: I think we're all with you on that part. I would just like to point out, however, that free trade didn't begin with this administration. Your husband's administration was a leading proponent and a rather effective advocate of that, including the onset of NAFTA, of course.
Amongst the number of things, when we said you were going to be our guest here, Senator, a number of people pointed out to us, e- mailing us and calling us, saying, ask the senator about her helping Tata Consulting, a well-known outsourcer, open jobs -- and office in Buffalo, New York. I'm asking you, did you really understand the degree to which they were involved in outsourcing jobs when you were there?
CLINTON: Well, of course I know that they outsource jobs, that they've actually brought jobs to Buffalo. They've created 10 jobs in Buffalo and have told me and the Buffalo community that they intend to be a source of new jobs in the area, because, you know, outsourcing does work both ways. You know, we cannot close our borders. We have to be smarter about competing. We have, more enforceable trade agreements. But we also have to attract jobs from around the world. And you know, we are still the biggest market with the greatest potential for growth for businesses from literally every corner of the world.
Boilermaker (3/5/04; 16:00:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 118095)
If I were a bond owner
Today LT bonds went up 2% almost instantaneously after the lousy jobs report. They should have declined by at least as much when the BLS announced the "delay" of another month's PPI. Question; does bond trading close at 15:00EST? The BlS announcement came at about 15:45EST.
Bond traders are supposed to be smart. I'm not so sure.
Great weekend all and extra thanks for the excellent post of JMarley. He's got to be FOA.
Boilermaker
spotlight (3/5/04; 15:39:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 118094)
CPI
Can anyone tell me weather the core rate of inflation in the CPI excludes anything?
Great Albino Bat (3/5/04; 15:25:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 118093)
Is gold "wealth", or is it "money"? or both?
For some reason, asking these questions provokes a good deal of emotional response from some quarters.
To the GAB, these are simply questions which it is convenient to answer, although the answer will in any case come around to the same conclusion: Get some gold!
Let's start by making clear what we mean by wealth. The Concise OED says wealth is "riches, possessions, opulence; being rich; abundance…."
Without wishing to provoke the wrath of others who think differently, here is my assessment of the question.
Gold is wealth, because it is money.
Why do goldbugs want to accumulate a stock of gold? Because gold is universally desired. In today's economic conditions, many (most) people still do not wish to accumulate gold; however, this is because they are unaware of where present trends are going to end up inevitably, and not because they despise gold.
Even the most ignorant banker in the world, the most cynical stockbroker in the world, will acquire gold in the form of his cufflinks, or in the form of a bracelet for his girlfriend. These anti-gold people certainly like gold, they admire jewelry in the store windows, they buy gold watches. It just so happens that their livelihood is endangered if buying gold catches on. So, they waste no opportunity to cast dirt on gold as an investment or a protection against monetary debauchery.
Then again, holding gold as an investment, as a protection against future monetary inflation is something that few people can afford to do. Most people have trouble keeping body and soul together for the present day, week or month. They cannot squirrel away much gold, and besides, the fact is, that accumulating gold is a speculation, and people with slim incomes, usually don't want to speculate. If they speculate, they feel more comfortable if they speculate by putting their money where other people – presumably more well informed – are recommending they do so. Such is human nature.
But getting back to my statement: "gold is wealth because it is money".
A stash of gold bullion is a relatively useless thing! What can you do with it? The standard slap: "You can't eat gold!". Quite true, but then, you can't eat a bank account either, or a bond, or a $100 dollar bill.
Another standard slap is that "you can't go into a market and buy groceries with a gold coin." That's also true, but so is saying: "You can't go into a Walmart store and pay for groceries with Yen or Yuan or even Euros."
Why do we say gold is wealth? Simply because ALL humankind will recognize gold and respect it, whether they want to own a piece of it by sacrificing their income for it, or not. Making that sacrifice is incidental. The great fact is that gold is universally recognized at sight, and respected. This universal respect for gold, translates into making the owner of a quantity of gold, a more or less wealthy individual. The gold owner has, what all humanity would like to have!
There are many ways of being wealthy. The owner of a fleet of fishing vessels, the owner of a fleet of oil tankers, the owner of thousands of rental properties, is undoubtedly wealthy. And so is the owner of a hefty amount of gold. Each way of being wealthy has its advantages and its purposes, as well as its risks.
Because it is so universally respected, gold is an excellent way to "park savings". We own gold, in order to be able to do something with it, in the future, or perhaps so our heirs will be able to do something with it. We do not intend to eat the gold, certainly!
Why is gold an excellent way to park savings? Because it is so universally recognized and respected – more easily recognized and respected all over the world, than a wad of Euro bills, of Dollar bills, or Yen or Yuan. And what is the word that is used to designate something tangible, universally most recognized and most respected? Why, "money" of course.
Gold is wealth because it is money – real money. The fact that you can't buy groceries with it, does not nullify the fact that it is money. It merely tells you, that the banking system or the exchange system in place in society, does not wish to deal with gold. Gold is shut out from your local bank – but, gold is still money! If your local bank will not exchange Yen or Yuan bills for Dollars, does that mean that the Yen or the Yuan are not money?
If gold were not money, it could not be wealth, which it certainly is.
How could the owner of gold think himself wealthy, if what he owned was NOT so universally recognized and respected: in other words, the world's best money?
Under present banking conditions and under the present international monetary order, gold is not useful as money, because it is being shut out of the system. That certainly does not mean that gold is not money; only that the banking systems of the world are endangered by the recognition and respect that gold elicits universally, and they want to pretend it does not exist as a threat to their increasingly unrealistic operations, by ignoring it and making it difficult for people to turn to gold as a refuge.
The world's banking systems make things difficult for gold owners. Goldbugs know this and decide to defy the system. Each one makes his calculations and decides for himself: stand, or go with the flow. Each person has his priorities which only he can sort out.
Gold is wealth because it is the universal money; it has its enemies who want to make it hard for you, to own gold. But still, gold is money. And because it is REAL money, it is wealth.
The GAB hopes that reading this was not a waste of your time!
steady (3/5/04; 15:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 118092)
goldbugs
true goldbugs dont have to profess they just are and dont have to try!
Goldilox (3/5/04; 14:56:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 118091)
See the light
@ steady:
I'm one of the most vehement gold bugs on this site. I see the light. I just don't consider the $6/day "rule" a very reliable indicator. However, I hope as much as any one here that this sets a new trend.
toodles-
Federal_Reserves (3/5/04; 14:32:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 118090)
PPI delayed again
http://stats.bls.gov/ppi/delaynotice.htm
Two reports now embargoed from public review. Still no idea when they will be out.
steady (3/5/04; 14:12:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 118089)
broken trend
goldie sorry to burst your bubblwe but breaking hte 6 dollar bat is significant , reasons 1) if it can be done once it will be done again , this will allow gold to rise in one two and trhee percetn spurts and removing the impedsiments to a free market is important, so im sorry you do not see the long term implications thois breaking of the 6 dollar rules has for gold,
like i said a while back gold dribbled right into the thick of the currency market and said come one come all one at a time or all at once, gold showed the currency traders who is king, there may be a few lost battles along the way but the 6 dollar rule will become a thing of ht epast going forward in time which sets the plate for a 10% move on day. kabing 40-50 federal reserve notes moves will take place . hope u see the light!
peace!
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people!
Cavan Man (3/5/04; 14:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 118088)
Why I bought gold in May of 1999......
....and why I still buy it today.....
"The way of the successful investor is normally to do nothing?not until you see money lying there, somewhere over in the corner, and all that is left for you to do is go over and pick it up. That is how you invest. You wait until you see, or find, or stumble upon, or dig up by way of research something you think is a sure thing; something without much risk. You do not buy unless it is cheap and unless you see positive change coming. In other words, you do not buy except on rare occasions and there are not going to be many in life where the money is just lying there because there are not many great opportunities that are ever going to come along.
But you do not need many if you do not make many mistakes."
Jim Rogers
Goldilox (3/5/04; 13:21:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 118087)
Underutilized numbers
@ FED_RES:
Thanks - that's one of the best enumerations of the real employment problem I have seen. Just how can tax and benefit cuts help millions who earn no taxable income, anyway?
Snow got hammered by Lizzie today, and afterwards the preponderance of email asked why he didn't answer any of her very reasonable questions!
Speaking of CNBC, they also mentioned that GE is one of the compaanies training Indians in Amer-english for their call center in New Delhi, y'all.
Hooverville, Reaganville, and Bushburg. Buy stock in REI, as many more tents, stoves, and lanterns will be needed.
Goldilox (3/5/04; 13:12:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 118086)
Six dollar rule
I'm not too excited about the six dollar rule violation, as it was only $8, and that after two brutal $13 down days in the last couple weeks. It is nice to be back over $400, however.
I'm actually more encouraged by Sinclair's decision to take his predictions offline into private meetings so the whole world isn't reading his support and resistance points.
I think the markets are very stressed, based on the numbers and the hype, and we are in for some srious volatility ahead - in SM, $, gold, bonds, etc.
I have also noticed that miners have been reluctant to drop very far on those down days, and seem poised to react to serious upside action.
Buckle up! It's gonna be a wild ride.
steady (3/5/04; 12:50:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 118085)
not very often do i say this but i told ya!
6 dollar rule broken in memory of surfer joe! he caught hte big one but let it go! hes satifsfyed with wining>.
huh? oh the answer to yestedays numbers, naw not yet think it over a lil longer.
Federal_Reserves (3/5/04; 12:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 118084)
The jobs bottom line
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The number of folks employed dropped from 138,566,000 to 138,301,000 a loss of 265,000 jobs! They keep the rate from rising by lowering the number of people in the labor force which also suffered a huge decline of 392,000!
There is no job's recovery at all. In fact, we are losing jobs, and its signalling the recovery is failing to produce the next upleg. The rich have not felt the recession that is trickling upward, but they soon will. The rich man's indexes has begun to decline, NAS down 6 week straight, and the SnP and DOW look like walking dead man ZOMBIE's, making up and down moves while going nowhere.
Gandalf the White (3/5/04; 12:38:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 118083)
NICE Work today SPIKE and SPOT !!!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
<;-)
R Powell (3/5/04; 12:17:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 118082)
Questioning Kudlow..?
Goldilox: Thanks for relaying the comment from Mark of the peoples' stock picking television channel...
Mark just said, "Coming up! Final thoughts from Larry Kudlow, if you can stand them!"
I think Mark has begun to question some of the Bull S___t that analysts and guests of CNBC pass off daily to those who care to believe it. Sometimes his body language and facial expressions belie the proper reaction he is supposed to convey. It would not surprise me to see Mark replaced (retired...fired). Maybe Abbey is available??
Socrates ...nice call on the currency reversal !! Mr. Fibonacci was right...or enough people thought he was going to be right.(g) Now, if we can get enough investors to believe that silver is heading straight for $14.55 while gold advances to $1012.91. I know...patience rich, patience.
Clink! (3/5/04; 11:46:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 118081)
Up into the close !
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
And, interestingly a $7.4 up day - someone must be slipping. Talking of slipping, take a look at the USDX chart. What I find most scary is that the value of the biggest monetary float in the world can vary by 1.5% in the space of 90 minutes. The number of $s sloshing about to do that is truly awe inspiring.
Goldilox (3/5/04; 11:08:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 118080)
Accent improvement
@ Clink!
Mahatma Coat, y'all.
Maybe that's why Dell brought their service back home to Round Rock. They couldn't afford to hire that Korean comedian from Kaintuck to teach the proper nuances of Suthen speech.
Clink! (3/5/04; 10:54:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 118079)
Accent improvement ?
Are they fixin' to get some good ol' Texan in there too ?!
Goldilox (3/5/04; 10:32:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 118078)
It's all in the spin
CNBC is presenting a special spot on English "accent" classes offered by Wipro and other Indian call center providers. The classes, which have long waiting lists, teach British, California, East Coast, and Midwestern accents so the caller believes they are speaking to a local representative.
Now when you make your call, ask a favorite question of G.I.'s in WWII. "Who won the '03 World Series?"
Paper Avalanche (3/5/04; 09:51:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 118077)
@ Boilermaker - PPI for January
I think that the BLS will simply cancel the PPI reading going forward. It is outdated and no longer reliable. (Just kidding)
I too am eagerly awaiting the spin that will accompany the non-release of the Feb number if that should happen as well.
Push is about to turn to shove. This is almost surreal. It is as if the BLS is a fourth grader not wanting to show dad his report card and is looking for a way to use white out to turn D's into B's.
Something big is definitely brewing.
Have a great weekend!
PA
Boilermaker (3/5/04; 09:27:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 118076)
Boilermaker Screw Up
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200403/200403050017.html
This is the link that went with my last post
Boilermaker (3/5/04; 09:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 118075)
As Producer Price Index Skyrockets, Fears of Inflation Mount
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/Risk%20Management/S&P%20Update/
snip;
Producer prices skyrocketed in February due to a rise in the raw materials prices, fanning worries over growing inflationary pressures and worsening corporate profits. The Bank of Korea (BOK) announced Friday that the producer price index (PPI) jumped 4.5 percent year-on-year in February, the highest monthly rise since November 1998 when it hit 11.0 percent growth. The figure also marks the eighth consecutive months of gains.
comment
Korean number crunchers are now two months ahead of US BLS. Here's the way I interpret their numbers into a US equivalent (month on month):
Jan. up 1.4%, Feb up 1.2% and the SK Won up about 2% vis-a-vis US$ over the two months. Adding percentages (close estimate) gives 4.6% PPI increase in 2 months. Annualized we get 31%. No wonder BLS is constipated.
BTW the PPI for February is due out a week from today. I wonder how they'll spin the probable non-release of that one. Perhaps the recent dollar boost and gold attack has been a rearguard action in anticipation of these awful inflation and employment numbers. I would think the bond guys would smell a rat by now but I suppose most of them are playing with OPM.
Get your gold now. This may be the last visit below $400.
Goldilox (3/5/04; 08:36:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 118074)
Jobs Report
Wasn't it Walter Reuther who asked Henry Ford, "Just who's going to buy all those cars, Mr. Ford?"
Zhisheng (3/5/04; 08:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 118073)
Challange
The market is challanging the $6 rule: that gold is not permitted to rise more than $6 in any one trading day. As I write gold is up about $7.40.
Goldilox (3/5/04; 07:56:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 118072)
Heckle's squirming
CNBC
Anticipating the jobs report, CNBC called in their "economist", Larry Krudlow, to explain away the number. He is dancing the "productivity" dance, and sugggesting that the ISM and revenue numbers show that the jobs number must be flawwed, as businesses are possibly "not reporting" new jobs. Oh, Oh, call the IRS!
Squirm Larry! It so fits your pugnacious profile!
Mark just said, "Coming up! Final thoughts from Larry Kudlow, if you can stand them!"
No kidding! A good start to a glorious day!
Got gold?
goldquest (3/5/04; 07:22:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 118071)
@TownCrier #118052
Thanks for the help Randy!
White Rose (3/5/04; 07:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 118070)
Mexico's Fox visits Bush (are we begging for more silver?)
http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2004/03/05/build/world/30-mexiconcessions.inc
They seem to be straining to explain why we need to meet with Mexico. My guess is that it is all about getting some silver quick to New York.
Endofderainbow (3/5/04; 07:17:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 118069)
J Marley
A ghost from the past to warn Mr Scrooge that opportunities for good deeds on the trail never die?...Yes?
Socrates964 (3/5/04; 07:09:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 118068)
Belgian
Must confess I definitely feel better, although because of POG rather than Euro.
Gold still has to clear 404 for a 3-box reversal.
Hang Tuff (3/5/04; 07:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 118067)
Gold has hit $400.00 plus on Kitco.HOORAY!!!
Hang Tuff : Mahendra predicted a huge up day on Mar 3 and it obviously did not happen. But today looks VERY Exciting. I am like the people who watch sports except I watch precious metals for fun and excitement. I have high hopes for today. I am FULLY invested.
Belgian (3/5/04; 06:56:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 118066)
1 BARRIL = 1 GRAM GOLD
Arabian oil values 1 barril equal to one gram gold. One (1) barril (brent) is now priced 33,24$ by the oil-reserve-holders (and by nobody alse). Arabian oil "VALUES" (not pricing) Gold now at 33,24 x 31,1 (grams in an ounce) = 1,034 dollar per ounce...against the visible gold-paper-price of 398,3$/Oz.
That's WHY the CB's Gold-Wealth (Gold-exchange-reserve) is VALUED, inter-bancair, much, much higher than the paper-price at wich we the tiny group of small shrimps can accumulate Physical. This explains what is meant by : THERE IS NOT ENOUGH GOLD !!!
$-POG, whoesssshhhhh + 6$...friday bluesssssss.
Nymex crude : > 37$
€/$ : 1,2320 : Are you happy Socrates ?
J-Bullion (3/5/04; 06:52:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 118065)
Jobs Report
Why is the Labor Department reporting the jobs report anymore? They better switch that over to the BLS. That way they can hedonically adjust the # of jobs to any number they want. 21,000 jobs can soon become 210,000 jobs because of the productivity miracle 1 worker is now the equivalent of 10 jobs. This better happen quickly, or else the the big party is going to end real soon. If the figures don't tell us what the economists want to hear, change the figures.
Socrates964 (3/5/04; 06:46:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 118064)
Job figures
Poor job creation figures - intended to keep the lid on interest rates, perhaps?
JM - let me digest your post.
Max Rabbitz (3/5/04; 06:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 118063)
Payrolls disappointing again
http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/05/news/economy/jobs/index.htm
"Gain of 21,000 falls far short of Wall St. forecasts"
Max......They said earlier this week that the big dollar surge was due to expected huge gains in employment numbers this Friday, more than the 125,000 consensus. If the dollar doesn't fall back it must be due to the phase of the moon
Jacob Marley (3/5/04; 06:40:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 118062)
Belgian 118054 / Socrates -- Dollar/Euro/Oil/Gold
"Saudi Arabia is a BIS member" ... "ECB-BIS alliance = New euro-political power" ... "Trichet 're-confirmed' the ECB's 'Independance', yesterday !" ... "Nothing left from that OPEC-promess of being accomodative as to keep the $-POO in the 22$-28$ range !!!" ... "oil is coming closer to the euro, because the dollar is losing its 'credibility'..." ..."A EURO STRONG IN GOLD !!!"
These, dear Soc/B, are precisely at the hear of the point I tried to make the other day -- that being the struggle on the part of the US to discredit the euro TO THE END that the ECB should blink and cease to behave purely according to charter, and instead "just like" another dollar -- i.e., driven by internal ("parochial") political concerns over the pure macro-economic banking concerns of a currency issuer. And that if this occurs, the game is over for the Euro -- those are the stakes in this life/death economic struggle behind the scenes. Allow me a moment to clarify.
The chief concern in this battle is the attribute of euro credibility. This is the foremost attribute for any currency issuer. Credibility is maintained through providing adequate liquidity, solvency, and instituting monetary policies that promote the most favorable investment climate for its users. The most favorable monetary climate is price stability, as this indicator signals the ideal environment for planning and forecasting: a reasonable predictability that is essential to a stable world. Maintaining price stability is the single chartered objective of the ECB.
The dollar (and other fiat currencies in the world today), derive their tether (on which their credibility is based) by orienting around being stable in terms of something. Some currencies "tether" by benchmarking relative to some other currency(ies). Most used to benchmark directly to gold, and did this by promising convertibility at a guaranteed rate. (Productive potential is another way to benchmark, but practically does not operate exclusively as any banks' barometer, but is more a "public consumption" thing, and won't be discussed further here.) The single common characteristic of all primary benchmarks in today's setting is that they also compose significantly the reserve base of the currency's issuers. This determines the architecture and function of today's operating fiat currency regime.
Today the USD is tethered via a quasi-gold (also quasi-oil) order. It does the former out of the pure evolution of its previous gold-backing framework from the Bretton Woods arrangement. The latter is not anything formally stated, but can be conceived by viewing OPEC as an external authority that controls indirectly dollar monetary policy to a degree, by how much it will charge to convert dollars for oil. It came about in some opinions because of the very failure of the gold backing, and is sustained because of the subsequent failure of the quasi-gold tethering.
The fact is that today all of our floating currencies have a tether to put restraint on just how high and far abreast they float, and it is chiefly some single important commodity's exchange price that is the benchmark. The historical evolution of this has it that this important commodity is also the main (or only) reserve holding of the bank. (Oil viewed here as a tether is the "reserve" holding of its "issuer" as defined by the most important supply bloc - OPEC.)
In any event, this is why the world's current pre-eminent reserve currency is able to get away with being driven by domestic political (parochial navel-gazing) forces -- because the established order measures the dollar in large part on the basis of the gold price -- which with contract gold, and derivatives sophistication -- can be masked considerably. And since oil is priced and sold in dollars, stable oil prices also signal stable dollars.
Other reserve dynamics (dollar debt, export competition for dollar-spending consumers, etc.) also keep support for enormous dollar float, and allow the US to run enormous trade deficits that keep in balance through subsequent capital inflows (themselves driven by these reserve dynamics). This allows sustained and grossly disproportionate internal spending relative to real output. But since these dynamics also allow for dollar denominated price stability, the US indirectly provides to the world's investors the "ideal" investment climate for users of its currency -- price stability -- but at the great expense of other nations' economies (and ultimately well-being).
The euro -- by design -- decouples itself from benchmarking its reserves as an indicator of the currency's value. In practice this the markets still evaluate it in terms of its reserves (dollars and gold), as the euro is not yet fully established in the global mindset as an entity that can stand alone. But the target of the ECB is architecturally removed from demonstrating the euro's worth in terms of how strong it is relative to reserves (the entente that the dollar must perpetually struggle with). It chooses instead to compare itself with an external basket of goods, as measured by an indicator, as you know, called the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). This benchmarking to some external thing that is not either an unencumbered reserve (like gold), or the issue of someone else that somehow ties to its own unencumbered reserve (dollars: quasi-gold, OPEC: oil-in-the-ground), is something very significant.
The dollar gets away with whatever it wants, so long as the benchmarks are stable, and markets can feel secure in this. IF the euro tries to play this game, i.e., succumbs to political pressure and makes policy on that basis, it yields its one designated "asset" to uphold credibility -- faithful adherence to its word. It has nothing else to tether against ideally because of its reserve marking structure. It did this by design, because in order to promote the best environment for the users of the currency (liquidity, solvency, predictability), it needed the greatest degree of flexibility. The dollar, and its forerunners always had to deal with artificial constraints that had nothing to do with the economy they served. The economy may have demanded expansion, but physical gold limitations prevented it. Asia screams to expand, but they are like inflating a tire with a slow leak, the harder they pump the more air escapes through THEIR self-imposed but inescapable constraint of competitive devaluation of THEIR primary reserve holding: dollars.
The euro chose to be as abstract an entity as possible -- and it is hard to get more abstract in this physical world of ours other than to have nothing standing behind your issue except your word. That is why years of true trial and tribulation were needed to mature the currency issue. And years are needed to convince potential users in all cultures and walks of life that the currency WILL be supported by its issuers according to their word (charter), AND that the issuers (through proving) have the means (power) to support their currency. THIS is its only tether. Not gold, not forex. These, in a market-marking framework, provide no secure anchor. IF the euro becomes an untethered entity, it will have great trouble -- architecturally -- providing an environment of price stability. It would be relegated to second tier status. It would effectively become "just another currency" -- a regional currency for the EU, used chiefly for convenience and by law -- not the primary global currency for reserves and settlement. It would hence forego all the prestige and power that go with this "exorbitant privilege."
That is the caveat that I must not have made clear the other day, as to why the mark-to-market attribute of the ECB is potentially a liability. It becomes a liability, if the ECB blinks, and capitulates. What was leverage for strength, by providing a natural hedge in its reserve base through a cooperative relationship, then gets turned on its head. Now the mark-to-market property would leverage weakness, by forcing the reintroduction of a competitive relationship to the reserves. Since in capitulation they would have let go of their chief supporting "asset" -- to promote credibility in the currency -- the credibility of their word.
Without a benchmarking non-reserve commodity (real OR abstract), the untethered euro would have its reserve assets then forced upon it for support, and this would make it no different than other fiat issues. By placating political pressure, they would lose their independence to act solely for the benefit of the currency, and would introduce European economic activity far more greatly into the mix than is wanted by design. Today, while conceptually mark-to-market is an "asset" (i.e., beneficial) for the euro, functionally and practically the euro is still treated and measured much like other fiats. This is because it lacks yet the full maturity that will bring it prominence and acceptance. In this setting the mark-to-market property is also still largely obscured (can you name one other person who is cognizant of this?). When its day arrives, it will have been because of the fruition of its abstract non-reserve "asset" -- that of established, unwavering credibility. Once more THIS is what matters in a currency -- not its reserves as such, but its ability to promote a stable macro-economic environment. Build THAT and they will come... Reserve asset values are only a part of the picture, and sole reliance upon them as the support for the issue, is the mark of a lesser evolved currency paradigm.
Because the euro today has not reached full stature, and the old-guy still sits on the throne, it will still be judged largely on its performance vis-a-vis its reserves -- competitive relationship. Its tether is not a beneficial tether, but more a chain by which it may be pulled against its will. Whereas a gold/dollar reserve mix should also be a natural hedge, one against the other, in practice this is not fully the case today since dollar priced gold can be managed through paper inflation/deflation of the supply, thus controlling prices almost to perfection, and allowing dollar reserve dynamics to operate unbridled. As the dollar loses credibility, its grip on this relationship will also weaken, and this natural hedge will become very obvious, beneficial, and ultimately break apart. At that time, the dollar will decline in reserve use, gold will rise in price greatly in euro terms. In this the euro will become weak in gold. But in relation to other currencies, due to its construction to not compete with gold, it will become strong in gold. In weakness it becomes strong...
I won't go on about my earlier thoughts on Russia and the US oil strategy here other than to tie it in to the above. Russia - playing both sides, might really be seeking a hegemonic policy in the region by forcing delays in the fruition of the European strategy. The hope would be to force, through economic stagnation, a capitulation of the ECB's euro strategy as detailed above. This will weaken the region, and allow Russia a chance to fill the void -- their centuries old dream.
The US, while seeing this Russian dream as more a nightmare, strategically wishes to benefit from such activity in the short term, since they also wish to topple the euro (and subsequent European ascendancy). They wish to develop a contingency of secure oil flow through various channels, and would like to defuse OPEC (need to tame Iraq, and get pro-US/anti-OPEC leadership in Venezuala). This is not only to remove the oil restraint on their own economy, but also to take out one of the stool legs supporting euro maturity and power (alluded to in Belgians mention of the Saudi/BIS/ECB associations in his post).
True, Belgian & Socrates, it is not an easy task to piece all these power plays and strategies together. And who knows the day or the hour? We see only what we are permitted to see, and that from a distance. But, it is a fascinating complexity that I personally enjoy examining. So, we sit back and we shall watch this show together, no...? (I will be gone for a couple days, so won't see any response -- should you choose to make any -- until Monday).
Belgian (3/5/04; 06:37:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 118061)
Tobin Tax on Forex ?
Euroland might (!!!) agree on a Tax (0,1% initially) on "speculative" Forex moves, wich are huuuuge . I see this against the contrasting background of (unfree)Gold, NOT being taxed (for the time being) ! Taxes on moving (arbitering) your confetti-units, but NOT on your Gold-Wealth in Possession !? Strange evolution !
Mr. Lassonde (Newmont mining-BB's post) seems to understand that his mine's Gold is NOT a commodity anymore, but..."money". Wrong Sir ! You are not mining money but "WEALTH" , that soon will be re-considered as wealth and not what you think is money ! Here we have a boss of the second biggest goldmine (reserve) who doesn't know, in what business he's "really" in !!! Commodity ?...money ?...Wealth ? Certainly to be continued...
China (1,2 Billion folks) is recognizing the right of "property"...and that includes GOLD IN POSSESSION !!!
Yes, Sir Alan...we heard what you were saying about those dollars slushing around, yesterday !
The US-$ keeps devaluing against everything that is expressed in dollar and its derivatives ! The one and only reason for this irreversable process to continue, is past and present, "dollar-deluge", for already much too long. This is also the one and only explanation for the stockmarket overvaluations since more than a decade.
Socrates964 (3/5/04; 06:00:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 118060)
GAB
'fixin' to be in a world of hurt' - I was merely posting a most interesting comment that had appeared in last night's Midas -Since he occasionally quotes me, I thought he wouldn't mind if I occasionally quote him.
I can't remember the source, but I also remember seeing something about the Bank of China dumping yen for dollars. Hard to tell whether we're just seeing some year-end window dressing, but the Yen is behaving strangely.
Goldilox (3/5/04; 05:55:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 118059)
POG/POO
@ Belgian:
You said: ""WHAT" made them change their mind ? Has it something to do with ....1 barril = (must be) 1 gram og Gold !?"
$400 /32.2 = $12.42/g
E320 /32.2 = E9.9/g
Where does this calculation fit in your statement?
Are you assuming a gold transfer takes place and assigning a "partial" gold value within the POO structure?
steady (3/5/04; 05:39:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 118058)
THE TRUTH!
gld and silver are money!
the end isnt near.
rather the begining is just begining,
ones perspective is everything.
AWAKEN THE RECOGNITION AMONG THE PLANETS POPULACE THAT GOLD IS MONEY.... silver will tag along just to provide stability and balance.
got love?
Ned (03/05/04; 04:20:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 118057)
Belgium, ag mountain
I believe you raise excellent points. Saudi does not need to hold reserves of both oil and gold but as oil depletes or is 'encumbered' or is 'threatened' oil is out and gold is in.
Yes?
Here is a quip from Another:
"Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options problems. The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper currency terms that all of the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken for. Between the third world buying physical gold and the jewelry industry ( same people buying ) there is none left for the oil states! They do value oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper currency price of gold! How much is gold worth in terms of oil value? Just stop supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price of oil! In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that any rise in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.
One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling!
NOTHING!"
Here's the kicker, "...stop supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price of oil!"
Yikes! Has oil gone through the roof solely because the DX has fallen from 120 to 89? Or is gold transacted for oil in diminishing amounts? Too early to tell perhaps.
We watch for the wheels to fall off. Perhaps time is near to make one last physical purchase.
Ned
P.S. The JGB story last night is indeed interesting, do you get the feeling the END is near?
TownCrier (03/05/04; 03:58:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 118056)
Where's Waldo? See if you can spot all things "interesting"
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040302/default.htm
This is the url to the speech by Fed Chairman Greenspan that ECB President Trichet referred to thusly: "Alan produced a very interesting speech recently, very interesting."
R.
TownCrier (03/05/04; 03:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 118055)
Instant replay for B.
http://www.ecb.int/key/04/sp040304.htm
"Note how Trichet "re-confirmed" the ECB's "Independance", yesterday !"
-------
Done as follows -- from the Q&A portion of the press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB.
Press Questions:
"...over the last few weeks there has been a lot of noise from finance ministers and Heads of State. Schröder was in Washington and talked to Bush about the euro – does this bother you in any way as Mr Euro?"
"I have a second question about all the advice you have received over the last few weeks from politicians. How helpful is this advice, or was it, at your meeting today?"
Trichet Answer:
I would say that we hear and we listen – or I hear and I listen - and I know the Treaty. The general feeling in Europe, taking into account public opinion, is that we have to take our decision in full independence, meaning that we should not do something because we are told to do something. And that we should not do something because we are told to do the contrary. Namely, we should not be influenced in either direction. Frankly speaking, it is not that easy. But it is the strong belief of the entire Governing Council that we should not be influenced in any direction. So you can trust us to have looked at today's case on the basis of the situation today, as I have explained, as thoroughly as possible. And we will examine the situation next month in exactly the same frame of mind. Whatever is said, we are not to be influenced – either positively or negatively.
[New topic]
Question:
I have a question on a statement of Mr Greenspan. He recently commented on the Japanese intervention policy as an unsustainable one. Do you share his opinion? And what do you think about the recent development after the Boca Raton statement in this context?
Trichet:
Well, I'll let the Japanese central bank be responsible for its policy and I would only say that Alan produced a very interesting speech recently, very interesting.
[Classic...]
Question:
I have a simple question on your strategy. Last May you had a re-launch of the strategy aimed at better communications. But now I see some problems. If the inflation rate is closer to 1.5% than to 2%, and the potential rate is not covered by the real growth rate, one has the impression of a neglect of the money supply, of excessive liquidity. How can you make better communications with the new, re-launched strategy?
Trichet:
I am sorry, are you concluding that we should increase rates or decrease rates?
Question: That is your business.
Trichet: That is kind of you, sir.
[...pause for laughter... then fast forward to his concluding comments on this topic...]
We have to make a judgement on what is the real situation and not be the prisoner of a day-to-day evolution, which is necessarily erratic. We have a low level of inflation, according to the last statistics. We know in advance that for statistical reasons it will go up again, and then perhaps you will say: today you should do this, and tomorrow you should do that. So we have to take everything into consideration and not only the early indicators that are related to, for instance, the economic cycle and the last indication we have of domestic demand, but also all indicators of inflation and what could happen as far as inflation is concerned. We have the cross-checking – you have been mentioning it – with the monetary development, and I said that it is important in a long-term perspective.
We take all that, we make our judgement. I explained in four pages what our judgement was.
There is no other central bank, we are the only one -- I draw your attention to that -- which immediately after having considered the situation, and under the observation of the full body of European and global observers and journalists, produces its own assessment of the situation and asks the Vice-President and the President to appear in front of you and to respond as candidly as possible to the questions on the decision which has just been taken. I do not mean that we should be particularly proud, but that is transparency.
Belgian (03/05/04; 01:16:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 118054)
A smile for cher ami Ned.....
Saudi Arabia is a BIS member and,...there are special BIS-accounts held for "certain" nations !
ECB-BIS alliance = New euro-political power ! Note how Trichet "re-confirmed" the ECB's "Independance", yesterday !
Note that there is nothing left from that OPEC-promess of being accomodative as to keep the $-POO in the 22$-28$ range !!! Remember, that they were going to open the spigots when the POO went above 28$ for more than 20 days ?
"WHAT" made them change their mind ? Has it something to do with ....1 barril = (must be) 1 gram og Gold !?
Ned, have a look at the COT Gold Futures - Open Interest !!!
Yep, record high since...1986 !!!
How urgent is a "regime-change" in Venezuela ??? WO(more independant)O (and maturing euro, of course).
The new German President is an IMF-guy. What a coincidence ?
Ned,...what I'm trying to say is,...oil is coming closer to the euro, because the dollar is losing its "credibility" in the same proportion as the euro is gaining. A EURO STRONG IN GOLD !!!!
Goldilox (03/05/04; 01:15:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 118053)
Pennies disappear #118045
So many retailers keep a penny cup near the cash register to physically "round off" the total for customers, that removing the penny from circulation makes perfect sence. There is also a precedent since the IRS has allowed rounding off to the nearest $1 calculation on its forms for a number of years now.
Given enough hyperinflafla and more complete distribution of the technology for $paper and credit/debit card reading machines, all coins could easily be discontinued in the not too distant future.
Even casinos have long ago discontinued using legal tender $1 coins and substituted proprietary $1 tokens.
any have discontinued using coins in current gambling machines, simulating the sounds and issuing a payoff slip.
TownCrier (03/05/04; 01:05:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 118052)
goldquest: Fed "flow of funds" summary stats
In case you are still puzzling over what appears to you to be a negative (-)8.3 billion dollar position for Total U.S. Reserves, I might be able to lend a hand.
It looks to me like you were probably reviewing the data tracking FLOW, which is a measurement of change in holdings from a previous time period. If you would look instead at outstanding levels rather than flow, you will very likely see that our total reserves are more on the order of (+)86 billion dollars. I hope this helps.
R.
Great Albino Bat (03/05/04; 00:32:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 118051)
This is on topic, because what happens to OIL affects GOLD.
Lot's of agitation in Venezuela. It stinks of a CIA régime change operation via destabilization. Too many pics of protesters with signs saying the "right" (i.e. from the US administration point of view) things about "democracy", etc. Of course, we see the young woman protester battered and later showing up with a neck brace and a Venezuelan flag, saying she will go on protesting...Same old same old.
NOBODY in this world protests unless there is a paid agitator moving things. Who is doing the paying? Obvious.
Chavez is no doubt a nut, but, who is to cast the first stone? Another nut?
The next thing would be to have the Marines land in Venezuela, but alas, are there enough left over to deal with Venezuela, after Irag needs are taken into account?
Imperial overstretch?
The GAB
Black Blade (03/05/04; 00:26:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 118050)
Waverider
I don't see a US invasion of Ven anytime. Hugo Chavez is a Marxist but not a threat. However, I would not be surprised if the "old guard" in the Ven military and National Guard take matters in their own hands again.
On North Sea oil - "peak oil" production was reached ywo years ago and several majors have sold off their leases to smaller players. The UK had raised taxes that also contributed to some producers bailing out of the North Sea play.
On a side note, US energy officials are predicting record breaking gasoline prices by Memorial Day. Of course consumer advocates and some Congressmen are blaming "Big Oil" of price gouging, however, the market determines prices and not producers. This is an election year so we will hear more "price gouging" myths for political mileage (always a convenient scape-goat). The simple fact is that production of economically viable oil and NatGas is reaching its limits (at current prices) while global demand is rising.
On the "bright side" higher energy prices are not a problem as far as the "core rate" of the CPI and PPI (whenever it's released) are concerned. ;-)
- Black Blade
Nite all.
Great Albino Bat (03/05/04; 00:20:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 118049)
Socrates964: You sound Texan: "fixin to be in a world of hurt"!
I love that "fixin to be"!
Indeed, all bonds go up in yield (and down in value) all over the world...sounds quite plausible - everything is so interlinked in this day and age. No refuge left for huge, multi-trillions of paper! What a glorious mess!
What we are now living in, is "world inflation". Never been experienced in human history. No precedents! This is going to be interesting to watch - until the lava from the volcano gets too close to us, which it must.
"Managers" are running the world of money and finance. Career men who never had an independent thought in their lives. The mental midgets are in control. Sauve qui peut!
Laurel and Hardy, and Charlie Chase are running the mega banks..."Another fine mess you've got us into!"
The GAB
Great Albino Bat (03/05/04; 00:20:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 118048)
Socrates964: You sound Texan: "fixin to be in a world of hurt"!
I love that "fixin to be"!
Indeed, all bonds go up in yield (and down in value) all over the world...sounds quite plausible - everything is so interlinked in this day and age. No refuge left for huge, multi-trillions of paper! What a glorious mess!
What we are now living in, is "world inflation". Never been experienced in human history. No precedents! This is going to be interesting to watch - until the lava from the volcano gets too close to us, which it must.
"Managers" are running the world of money and finance. Career men who never had an independent thought in their lives. The mental midgets are in control. Sauve qui peut!
Laurel and Hardy, and Charlie Chase are running the mega banks..."Another fine mess you've got us into!"
The GAB
Waverider (03/05/04; 00:04:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 118047)
Oil Prices Edge Nearer to One-Year Highs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040304/markets_oil_3.html
"Oil prices edged nearer to one-year highs on Friday on concerns political strife in Venezuela could spin out of control and signs that OPEC (News - Websites) would keep its vow to cut output next month. U.S refiners made plans for possible supply disruptions in Venezuela despite assurances from OPEC's third-biggest producer this would not happen. The Bush administration said it was "extremely concerned" about surging gasoline prices. In a surprise announcement on Thursday, Venezuela's ambassador to the United Nations, Milos Alcalay, said he was resigning in protest over the policies of President Hugo Chavez, lending his weight to demands that the left-wing leader yield to a recall vote. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also warned that with gasoline stocks below normal levels, any problems at a refinery or pipeline might trigger supply disruptions and push up prices."
Waverider: I see that oil is almost $37.00 tonight. The P&F chart I posted in December gave a price objective of $42.00. Black Blade - what's your take on this? Could Bush find justification for invading Venezuela?
BTW - I notice that we didn't have the Daily News 'n Views or DMR posted the past few days - hope that all is well at the Castle!
Specie-man - I don't often check the year on coinage, but I believe most in circulation are minted within the past 5-10 years - just a guess (of course next time I'm given a nickel in change I'll think of you and check the date!)
Great Albino Bat (03/05/04; 00:04:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 118046)
AgMountain: about Norway's Petroleum Fund...
The human bean has a hard time (extremely) seeing things as they are. The vast majority of human beans accept as fact what everyone else accepts as fact. The Norwegian Muckey-Mucks are no exception.
NPTB-"Yes, we have to save. What do we save? Why, bonds of the best sort, of course; what else? Ours is a portfolio of outstanding quality!"
The GAB- "But a bond is only a promise, and the promise is fulfilled when you get another promise instead of the original promise. What about something tangible?"
NPTB-"Are you some kind of nut? Obviously you are mentally retarded, a goldbug...please, do not waste our valuable time with your outdated dreams!"
The GAB-"OK, wise guy. Have it your way. The Norwegians will be had. But by then, you will be out of office, maybe even dead, if you are lucky."
A curious thing is the human bean!
The GAB
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
