All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Operative (03/05/03; 22:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 98983)
Jack In The Box
While looking over some of the gold charts, daily and weekly, the left side connected with the right side of my brain with this visual. Watching the Manipulation Team and thier continuing efforts to beat down gold is like my grandson who recently tried to get the spring loaded "Jack"
back into it's box using a toy plastic hammer. I wonder if the Manipulators are having as much fun? If they are smiling and laughing, it is for a short period of time, and at a great expense. I wonder if they are aware that the latch is broken?
With thoughts of laughing children I'm off to bed. Night all.
sector (03/05/03; 22:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 98982)
@BlackBlade Central Banks Coming Clean...
...enough of them have come clean...
...for us to draw conclusions about how much metal they have left.
It's about half of what they had in 1990.
Moreover, the central bank strategy going forward has two paths (1) sell the rest as soon as possible leaving nothing or (2) ration out the remaining 15,000 tonnes in an intelligent manner that takes selling pressure lower and gold higher.
They must get to a point where selling can cease. We have timing clues:
The formerly strong dollar has been dead since SECTREAS O'Neill was given more time with his family. It's on a line down with the Euro now on the move back up.
BTW the Euro went sideways during the Iraq war back and forth "Negotiations". Now that the Prez will go it alone, the Euro is near vertical. Hmmmm. Welcome to a disintegrating G-7 and central bankers at each other's throats.
Gold will be released in a controlled fashion under cover of the war, catching all the weak handed gold specs and sissy share buyers turned punters, flat-footed...again. The Fed uses these hapless mopes for punching bags.
Read here...buy here.
Buy and hold...no matter what.
Operative (03/05/03; 22:20:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98981)
Looking Down The Trail Ahead
http://www.forbes.com/2003/03/05/cz_jd_0305watch.html
Good article, I liked the qoute (paraphrased) "if you are not buying gold in this economy you should not be managing money..)
Black Blade (03/05/03; 21:42:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98980)
Panic is near if 'The gold is gone'
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=37116051&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:
The "lunatic fringe" long has argued that the price of gold was being manipulated by a "gold cartel" involving J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the US. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but that the manipulation had been sufficiently exposed to require that it be abandoned, producing the steady upward increase in the price of the shiny, yellow metal. In fact the "gold bugs," as they're known, are so sure of their research that not only do they believe the price of gold will continue to climb, but many are expecting to see prices of $800 to $1,000 an ounce. Until recently, most in the gold and financial worlds scoffed at such a prediction, but last month the Bank of Portugal made an announcement that shocked those who credit official goldreserve data and added fuel to the contention of the gold bugs that the "goldcartel" manipulation is in meltdown.
What the Bank of Portugal revealed in its 2001 annual report is that 433 tonnes [metric tons] of gold - some 70 percent of its gold reserve - either have been lent or swapped into the market. According to Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), a nonprofit organization that researches and studies the gold market and reports its findings at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com: "This gold is gone - and it lends support to our years of research that the central banks do not have the 32,000 tonnes of gold in reserve that they claim. The big question is: How many other central banks are in the same predicament as the Portuguese?"
The gold bugs appear to be basing their identification of a world gold shortage on industry data, much of which has been summarized in two papers prepared by four different gold analysts at different times using separate methods. The first paper was written by governmental investment adviser Frank Veneroso and his associate, mining analyst Declare Costelloe. Titled Gold Derivatives, Gold Lending: Official Management of the Gold Price and the Current State of the Gold Market, it was presented at the 2002 International Gold Symposium in Lima, Peru, and estimates the gold deficit of the central banks at between 10,000 and 15,000 tonnes. The second paper, Gold Derivatives: Moving Towards Checkmate, by Mike Bolser, a retired businessman, and Reginald H. Howe, a private investor and proprietor of the Website www .goldensextant.com, estimates the alleged shortage of central-bank gold at between 15,000 and 16,000 tonnes nearly a decade's worth of mine production.
George Milling-Stanley, manager of gold-market analysis for the World Gold Council (WGC), a private organization made up of leading gold-mining companies that promotes the acquisition and retention of gold, is aware of these papers and shortage numbers but tells INsiGHT that "there are no official [goldreserve] reports." That is, "The central banks are under no obligation to report what they lend into the market, what they place on deposit and what they do with their swaps, so there's a conventional-wisdom view, and a couple of different bodies have done some fairly serious research in[to] this and have come up with a figure [of] around 4,500 to 5,000 tonnes."
Stanley's estimate is based on data provided by so-called "serious" researchers, including London-based Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), one of the world's foremost precious-metals consultants, and a report titled Gold Derivatives: The Market View, commissioned by the WGC to London-based Virtual Metals Consultancy. While these two groups appear to be the research choice of the official gold world, there are in fact no "official" figures, and both studies, like the Veneroso/Costelloe and Bolser/Howe reports, are based on interviews, data analysis and other research generally available to the industry.
Although the WGC's Stanley stands by the data provided by the industry's "serious" researchers, he insists he cannot say for certain that the numbers are accurate. "There is no requirement on any country to tell the IMF how much gold it owns," says Stanley. "The requirement is to tell the IMF how much gold it has decided to place in its official reserves. Nobody knows whether that is the total of what they own or not. Obviously they can't report more than what they own, but they can certainly report less if they chose to. That gold may have been lent out, but is nevertheless still owed to them. It's a bit like any company reporting a cash position. It will report cash on hand and cash due - money owed by other people. I'm not saying this is ideal, but this is how it works."
Whether the gold bugs are right about the reasons for the meteoric rise in the price of gold is uncertain, but, according to GATAs Murphy: "It's all the more reason to have the central banks come clean about the actual amount of gold that physically exists in their reserves. Either way, the price of gold will continue to rise because, as we already know and others are discovering, the gold is gone."
Black Blade: Interesting read but I seriously doubt that the central banks will ever come clean about their holdings. The same holds true about an official detailed audit of Fort Knox gold. Curiously the government has repeatedly refused to undertake such an audit. Hmmm…
ElGordo (03/05/03; 21:29:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98979)
N Korea will continue testing missiles?
(Bloomberg) -- North Korea may be preparing to test fire a mid-range ballistic missile capable of striking Japan, the Kyodo news agency reported, citing an unnamed U.S. government official.
The launch of a ballistic missile would break a pledge made by North Korea to Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September that it would maintain a freeze on missile tests. Any missile firing would worsen tensions on the Korean peninsula that has hurt stock prices in Japan and Korea and the South Korean won. The won today dropped to its lowest level in three weeks.
Black Blade (03/05/03; 21:04:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98978)
Fed's Beige Book Says Growth `Subdued' in Early 2003
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APmZULRQcRmVkJ3Mg
Snippit:
Washington, March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy ``remained subdued'' over the past two months as concern over war with Iraq constrained consumer and business spending, the Federal Reserve said in its most recent survey of regional economic conditions, known as the beige book. ``Aside from housing, just about every sector is struggling right now,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, a division of First Tennessee National Corp., and the largest underwriter of bonds issued by U.S. agencies such as Fannie Mae. ``The underlying state of the economy is not encouraging.''
Some of the Fed's business contacts expressed concern about the rising costs of energy and insurance, which they are unable to pass along to consumers, the beige book said. The 58.6 percent rise in oil prices over the past twelve months is having ``wide- ranging'' economic effects throughout the country, the Fed said, ranging from higher raw materials costs to increases in shipping costs. The Fed banks reported mixed construction activity, and slow business loan demand. Delinquencies and defaults rose slightly on some household loans, a few districts reported. Some New York Fed district banks tightened credit standards while lenders report an ``upturn in delinquency rates on consumer loans,'' the Beige Book said.
The Fed's Open Market Committee reduced its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Nov. 6 to 1.25 percent, the lowest rate in 41 years. Growth slowed in the fourth quarter to a 1.4 percent annual rate from 4 percent in the previous three months. Growth for the year totaled 2.4 percent, about 1 percentage point below what economists estimate as the economy's potential growth rate.
Black Blade: Certainly not a ringing endorsement of the so-called "economic recovery". Truth is consumer spending is slowing down and that is putting Wall Street on notice that the economy is trouble. Yet the spin will be to put the light on what can be twisted into some kind of positive statement. It is "confession season" again and so far the nubers have been horrible as more companies are warning of lower earnings (or greater losses). Here too we will hear the typical spin as analysts quickly lower earnings estimates so that companies can "beat the street". This recession is getting uglier all the time.
mikal (03/05/03; 19:36:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 98977)
Spot gold
I don't know why INO is showing gold down, because spot gold is up $.50 from the NY close. But I promised myself I wouldn't post small changes in price, so I'll let this one slip and then it's up to the others!
ElGordo (03/05/03; 19:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98976)
Trolls losing hope
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2332935
A FADING RAY OF HOPE?
Jobs in the services sector fell in February after a January gain, dimming a ray of hope for the overall economy. The ISM's employment index fell back under the critical 50.0 level to 49.0 from 50.3 in January.
With a sharp drop in manufacturing employment in the ISM's influential factory sector survey on Monday, analysts said the overall U.S. employment report due on Friday might turn out much weaker than expected.
Sundeck (03/05/03; 17:37:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98975)
Value of gold sends shivers down state mines
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=7255515&BRD=1817&PAG=461&dept_id=222087&rfi=6
Snips:
"
PHOENIX (AP) - Surging gold prices have sparked a new wave of gold fever in Arizona. Mining companies are making plans to open dormant gold mines, and individual prospectors are heading for the hills armed with gold pans and metal detectors.
"If these prices are sustained, we could see considerably more activity," said Al Burch, a manager with the Bureau of Land Management in Phoenix.
....
From 1992 to 1999, annual gold production in Arizona declined from 7,000 kilograms valued at $74 million to 700 kilograms valued at $7.1 million. Since 1999, production has been negligible.
But the rising prices have generated renewed enthusiasm for precious metals.
.....
In Nevada, the world's third-largest gold producer behind South Africa and Australia, geologists are working again and the assay offices are busy. Nevada produced almost $2.5 billion in gold last year.
"People are coming back," said Allan Coyner, director of the Nevada Mineral Division.
Mining companies are not the only ones catching gold fever.
At A&B Prospecting and Mining Equipment in Mesa, the increased price is "all anyone is talking about," says Tom Van, who works at the prospecting outfitter when he is not hunting for gold. A&B's business has increased along with the price of gold, he said.
"
Sundeck: Looks like an outbreak of gold fever in the west...could be fatal...looks like fiat vaccination is wearing off.
:-)
Sundeck (03/05/03; 17:17:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98974)
IRAN: TURNING TO GOLD AS WAR CASTS ITS SHADOW
http://www.mmorning.com/article.asp?Article=5044&CategoryID=6
Snip:
"
Iran's central bank has introduced measures designed to bring down soaring gold prices, including easing procedures for the import of gold and silver bullion, local media reports indicate.
The reports quote several officials as saying that Iranians were turning to gold amid continued uncertainty over Iraq and the volatility of foreign currency markets.
The fluctuation in domestic gold markets was due to a possible US attack on Iraq, which may jeopardize the free flow oil from the region, Commerce Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari suggested.
Iranian gold coins, a favorite for marriage portions, have risen in price from 650,000 to 800,000 rials (81.25 to 100 dollars) in the past two months.
"
Sundeck: 19% appreciation in two months on gold coins, not bad? Citizens in countries near the flashpoint preparing are preparing themselves.
Sundeck (03/05/03; 17:05:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 98973)
Barrick proceeds in libel suit against coin dealer
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035778694650&call_pageid=968350072197&col=968705923364
Snip:
"
Barrick Gold Corp. commenced proceedings today in a libel suit against an American coin dealer that accused Canada's largest gold producer of conspiring to manipulate the price of gold.
Barrick is seeking damages of $200 million and a permanent injunction from the Ontario Superior Court preventing Blanchard and Co. and its CEO Donald Doyle from "repeating, disseminating, publishing or causing to be re-published" the alleged defamatory statements.
"We value highly our reputation for carrying on business in a proper, ethical and lawful manner and will not tolerate the dissemination of false statements that are harmful to our reputation, business interests and stakeholders," stated Barrick president and chief executive Greg Wilkins.
"
Sundeck:
Methinks they protesteth rather loudly...
Will it boil down to who has the most money?
Simply Me (3/5/03; 16:38:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 98972)
@Black Blade
RE:Black Blade (03/05/03; 14:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98968)
Iranian Nuclear Power Project
A couple of days ago someone asked why Iran would need nuclear power if they were swimming in oil. I have just finished reading a report entitled "Long Decline in Oil Sector Means Shrinking Role for Iranian Supply in ‘New World Order’, by Mansour S. Kashfi, a consultant with Kashex International and Assoc.
Me: I asked. Thanks for the response. It certainly makes sense. Large infrastructure changes require long time frames....but I am still suspicous of the timing.
Simply
misetich (3/5/03; 15:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98971)
Slowing Growth in Services Sector a Bad Omen
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2332421
Snip:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The huge U.S. services sector slowed its pace of growth last month and the number of jobs in the sector fell, reinforcing views of a U.S. economy struggling with a hangover from the boom years and, now, fear of war.
The bad news for the services sector was countered to some degree by a separate report on Wednesday that showed the U.S. housing sector, a pillar of strength since the economy started softening nearly three years ago, remains robust.
............
Businesses, the Fed said, are also facing a profit squeeze due to the inability to charge customers for higher energy costs.
"We have estimated that for every $10 increase in oil prices, overall profits should fall by 7.5 percent in that quarter," Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus said in a research note.
..........
Jobs in the services sector fell in February after a January gain, dimming a ray of hope for the overall economy. The ISM's employment index fell back under the critical 50.0 level to 49.0 from 50.3 in January.
******************
Misetich
Corporate profits are being squeezed by higher energy costs - more layoffs are looming on the horizon as the auto and housing industry are poised to slowdown and further corporate earnings disappointments and downward revisions will drive stock markets lower
The second phase of the big bad bear market is here - a 20 to 30% correction is to be expected from these lofty levels to adjust to expected earnings - within the next 6 months
Paper pushers are too optimistic and reality will bite them again and again
In the meanwhile smart investors who have added physical gold to their portfolio - are reaping the benefits of intelligent investing
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
Got gold?
TownCrier (03/05/03; 15:18:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 98970)
Paper
http://www.adn.com/24hour/business/story/793261p-5667873c.html
HEADLINE: New Treasury chief signs next series of dollar bills
AP WASHINGTON (March 5) - With cameras whirring and clicking, a smiling Treasury Secretary John Snow signed his name with flair, relishing one of the perks of the job: signing his name on the nation's greenbacks.
Roughly 8 billion notes are made each year.
"What a great treat to be able to be here," Snow said. "Doesn't every American boy grow up wanting to have his name on the currency?" Snow quickly added that it is probably the dream of every girl, too. The room erupted in laughter.
...Snow used the signing ceremony to make a pitch for the president's tax-cut package. Swift congressional passage "will ensure that more of these notes stay in the pockets of the American family," Snow said.
-------(see url)------
We can only hope that these same American families see the writing on the wall and diversify their holdings to include gold. Call Centennial for knowledgeable and courteous consultation and assistance in placing your order for gold.
R.
TownCrier (03/05/03; 15:02:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98969)
When it comes to markets, traders (rightfully) have selective hearing
http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030305\ACQCOM200303051618AFXNEWS_EN_COM_F_5277_05.htm
HEADLINE: Forex - Dollar weaker in late New York on Iraq; Snow latest comment ignored
NEW YORK (AFX) - The dollar continued its slide against major currencies in late trade ... The US unit's losses, (dealers) said, were ... a continuation of yesterday's bearish sentiment following Treasury Secretary John Snow's statement yesterday that he is "not particularly concerned" about the dollar's decline since the G7 finance ministers meeting last month.
The market interpreted his comment as a shift from the administration's long-held strong dollar policy. To most traders, Snow's statement probably reflects the true attitude of monetary and fiscal authorities in the US.
...Meanwhile, Snow's latest comment today, supporting a strong dollar policy after flirting with a weak dollar stance yesterday provoked no market reaction.
"His latest comment was largely ignored by the market. He has lost credibility," said Larry Brickman, currency strategist at Bank of America. "The trade and current account imbalances are widening and can not continue to do so forever," he said.
--------(see url for full text)---------
Also covered in the text:
"Traders were also not reading too much into an expected rate cut by the European Central Bank tomorrow. Although they expect a slight knee-jerk impact on the euro, traders are skeptical the rate cut could weigh significantly on the currency."
Primary stock trend down... primary dollar trend down... call USAGOLD- Centennial for gold, nicely trending up.
R.
Black Blade (03/05/03; 14:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98968)
Iranian Nuclear Power Project
A couple of days ago someone asked why Iran would need nuclear power if they were swimming in oil. I have just finished reading a report entitled "Long Decline in Oil Sector Means Shrinking Role for Iranian Supply in ‘New World Order’, by Mansour S. Kashfi, a consultant with Kashex International and Assoc. Resource Consultants Inc. and former senior geologist with Iranian National Oil Co. 1971-1978. In short Iran is fast depleting its oil reserve and the apparently plan is to offset oil depletion with a domestic nuclear power program utilizing domestic uranium deposits in order to save oil for export and badly needed income. He states "…considering that domestic consumption of oil and gas is growing at a rate of about 5.2%/year, it is reasonable to conclude that by year 2018, there will be no (Iranian) oil to export". It should be noted that Iran has been cheating on OPEC quotas and is producing at capacity. In fact Middle East oil producers are operating at near full capacity even during this period of weak demand and as many producing countries have reached peak production. It also highlights why western nations are split over the Iraqi situation (war vs. no war) as each side is in a panic over declining oil supply. Once abundant "cheap energy" is unavailable the global economy will collapse.
- Black Blade
Boilermaker (03/05/03; 14:33:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98967)
``Shut up you monkey. Curse be upon your mustache, you traitor''
It's clear that we Americans must teach the ways of Political Correctness to these good folks. :)
Boilermaker
TownCrier (03/05/03; 14:30:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98966)
Government gold is not yours by proxy, so don't cry when it's gone.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030305/economy_canada_reserves_3.html
HEADLINE: Canada sells 15 pct of gold reserve on price surge
OTTAWA, March 5 (Reuters) - Canada sold 15 percent of its gold reserves last month as prices surged to 6-1/2 year highs and used the money to add to its higher-yielding foreign currency investments.
[["Higher-yielding" in the sense of any interest earned through lending/bonds, but not necessarily higher end value in terms of net capital appreciation. Hmph!]]
..."What we buy with the (gold) proceeds depends on...the available securities matching in the portfolio we follow," a finance official said.
Finance ministry figures released on Wednesday showed that the government sold 90,588 ounces of gold in February, leaving its holdings at slightly above 500,000 ounces. That is down from about 21 million ounces in 1980 before Canada's gold sales started.
...Canada's overall foreign reserves fell by $1.73 billion to $35.9 billion last month as Canada paid off a $2 billion global bond and made several other transactions such as raising euro and yen investments by $15 million each, finance ministry data showed.
Euro deposits and securities holdings of $14.26 billion in February are more than double their level of two years ago and are 40 percent of the total from 21 percent in February 2001.
-------(see url for full news)-------
The gold sales are probably conducted more on the basis of political justification than pure economic prudence. In that regard, it is noteworthy then that the dollar doesn't seem to be finding much favor as the paper of choice, however, the euro and yen being prime beneficiaries of the gold receipts.
The lesson here is that governments' holdings do not serve the individual directly. To benefit from gold ownership, you must take it upon yourself to hold reserves of the yellow metal personally. Then you alone can dictate when the reserves are either increased or liquidated to meet your needs, independent of the macro-politics of the day. As it should be.
R.
Black Blade (03/05/03; 13:40:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98965)
Shouting Match at Islamic Unity Summit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2455671,00.html
Snippit:
The gathering of the 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference was the third high-level gathering in the region in a week aimed at trying to prevent a war - and the second to be marred by bitter, insulting exchanges. Arab and Islamic nations are divided on whether war can be averted while Saddam Hussein remains in power.
The spat broke out as the Iraqi vice president, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, was delivering a scathing speech against Kuwaiti leaders, condemning them for ``treason ... and conspiracy with Zionism and colonialism'' for hosting U.S. troops.
He derided Kuwait's foreign minister, saying, ``Today, you see how in all swaggering and rudeness, he ... threatens Iraq's security at the core and calls on American troops to amass in his land -'' At that point, he was interrupted by an inaudible remark from Sheik Mohammed Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah.
Al-Douri retorted, ``Shut up you monkey. Curse be upon your mustache, you traitor'' - using a traditional insult to a man's honor.
``This is hypocrisy and falsehood,'' Sheik Mohammed shot back, in remarks aired live by Arab satellite television stations.
Kuwaiti Information Minister Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed leaped up and waved a small Kuwaiti flag.
The summit's host, Qatari emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, admonished al-Douri, telling him: ``You started your speech with a verse from the Quran saying, `Thou shalt be united by the word of God.'' The emir then moved on to the next speaker - from Afghanistan - saying, ``We are not here for such exchanges.''
Iraqi delegates left the room briefly until they were persuaded to return. ``The Iraqis always behave like this,'' Sheik Ahmed said.
Black Blade: Unity Summit eh? I saw this early this morning and at first I thought I didn't hear the translation correctly. I have to admit, these guys certainly have a way with words. It was rather funny though. I despise politicians but at times they do provide some comic relief. Meanwhile it appears that war is only days off now.
ge (03/05/03; 13:32:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98964)
Turkish General Backs U.S. Deployment
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=535&ncid=535&e=5&u=/ap/20030305/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_iraq_88
"Turkey's powerful military chief said Wednesday that the army backed the deployment of U.S. troops in the country for a war in neighboring Iraq."
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/05/03; 13:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98963)
The falling dollar: Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?
Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?
Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.
Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:
The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.
Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"
If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.
Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --
Contact:
George Cooper Ext 102
Jonathan Kosares Ext 110
Marie Ballard Ext 106
We look forward to your inquiry.
Gandalf the White (03/05/03; 12:50:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98962)
UP-DATE on POG CONTEST "KING of the HILL" status ! <;-)
<<<< SNIP >>>>
**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com
---
Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J with Open Interest of THAT Day
---
2/28/03 GC3J HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 OI = 105,993
3/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 OI = 104,153
3/04/03 GC3J HIGH = $354.9 low = $349.5 Settlement = $353.3 Change +$4.0 OI = 105,279
3/05/03 GC3J HIGH = $358.8 low = $352.3 Settlement = $353.2 -$0.1 OI = ?
===
Contest FIRST DAY, 2/28, Sir Kevin$ was "King of the Hill"
Contest SECOND DAY, 3/3, Sir Kevin$ was AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!
Contest THIRD DAY, 3/4, Sir Zelts waw "King of the Hill" !!!
Contest FOURTH DAY, 3/5, Sir Zelts is AGAIN "King of the Hill" !!!
===
Less than SIX days to Enter the CONTESTS.
<;-)
Topaz (03/05/03; 12:34:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98961)
CoBra(too)
Was that ANOTHER stout-hearted Knight I just caught a glimpse of riding off?
Adieu cb2...don't stray (too) far, and I41 will be keenly awaiting your safe return.
Black Blade (03/05/03; 12:23:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98960)
From the Mailbag
Another interesting item popped into my mailbox this morning (courtesy of Bill Bonner – DailyReckoning):
Michael O'Higgins is looking for a depression to begin soon...or to be already in progress. "Perhaps the greatest deflation and depression of all time," he told the Miami Herald over the weekend. O'Higgins, author of "Dogs of the Dow," predicted 3 years ago that stocks would lose half their value. Since then, the S&P 500 has fallen 41%. Now, he says, the damage is far from over. It could be worse than the period '29-'31, he continued, as today's depression would come "following the greatest speculative boom...of all time."
"The hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," adds Warren Buffett.
So what do you do when you get a "Mauve Alert"? You move to gold, says O'Higgins, "because it's real money; because it has held its value for thousands of years, because it's not subject to manipulation by government or central bankers or dishonest corporate executives."
Even during the Great Depression, '29-'39, gold rose 69%. O'Higgins reportedly owns only one stock: Newmont Mining.
And this:
Maybe gold will go nowhere, of course. Maybe it will even fall in price. But what do we care? We buy it for insurance. No one complains that his wife doesn't get to cash in his life insurance policy. Likewise, if the price of gold doesn't go up...then, the U.S. economy has not gone to hell. We still have our jobs...our homes...our piggy SUVs...our snobby wines...
Black Blade: The equities markets don't look very healthy these days and as Warren Buffett (arguably the most successful investor of all time) commented there are few stocks that even spark a mild interest for him. We are in a long term secular bear market that will last several years. War and terrorism are a daily fact of life, "cheap energy" is a thing of the past, and rising inflation is about all the Fed has left in its arsenal. These are "interesting times".
a nation of one (03/05/03; 11:52:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98959)
...
One thing I like about these charts at kitco and ino.com is if you get shocked by a sudden large fall in pog, just wait a few hours and it will look a lot smaller, as the vertical increments change from 50 cents to $1 or $2 or $5.
mikal (03/05/03; 11:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98958)
Correction and apology
http://www.etherzone.com/2003/pyne030503.shtml
Re: msg.# 98947
This is the correct link to the excerpted story. Thank you.
Zhisheng (03/05/03; 11:40:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98957)
@Sector
Thanks for the figures: good circumstantial evidence for price fixing.
Today the dollar index oscillated about 98.4 until near the close of the NY gold market, when it dropped to about 98.3.
During the same period, spot gold went from $356 to $354 to $352.60. Bruno is flexing his muscles.
LaffintheDark (03/05/03; 11:25:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 98956)
Warhead in Alaska... Is this old news?
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200303/kt2003030417272311970.htm
snippet:
The warhead of a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea was found in the U.S. state of Alaska, a report to the National Assembly revealed yesterday.
- Haven't heard any news about this yet. Seems like a pretty big story to me. Enough to bring me out of the assembly of this fine crowd in a long time!
sector (03/05/03; 11:05:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98955)
@Zhisheng Measured Response Indeed
The Dollar Index Value of Gold [DIVG] is flat
4-Mar-03 3.766
3-Mar-03 3.669
28-Feb-03 3.677
27-Feb-03 3.715
26-Feb-03 3.731
25-Feb-03 3.789
24-Feb-03 3.760
21-Feb-03 3.713
20-Feb-03 3.716
19-Feb-03 3.637
18-Feb-03 3.609
17-Feb-03 3.641
14-Feb-03 3.717
13-Feb-03 3.708
12-Feb-03 3.715
+++++++++++++++++++
The DIVG is the dollar price of gold divided by the Major Currency Dollar Index.
It is clear from this data that the true value of gold hasn't really changed at all since Feb12th. Therefore we are in a sideways transition. The blow-off spike to $388 was a margin increase phenomenon and is now under the influence of normal forces. Which is to say official central bank selling to manage its price.
Compare this with the Euro Index Value of Gold [EIVG].
4-Mar-03 2.97
3-Mar-03 2.95
28-Feb-03 2.99
27-Feb-03 3.03
26-Feb-03 3.03
25-Feb-03 3.06
24-Feb-03 3.06
21-Feb-03 3.02
20-Feb-03 3.01
19-Feb-03 3.00
18-Feb-03 3.00
17-Feb-03 2.99
14-Feb-03 3.04
13-Feb-03 3.01
12-Feb-03 3.10
The EIVG was up at 3.2 for many weeks. Therefore the purchase price for an ounce of gold is getting les expensive in Euro Land while things deteriorate in a macro economic sense over on this side of the big water.
These levels are changing this week by the looks of the Euro being up at 1.1 this morning. The next leg will be up for both the dollar index and the Euro Index Values of Gold and the putative war may be the launch date.
The gold cartel has worked very hard to get gold share investors, gold market speculators and institutions wrong-footed for the next move.
Ignore the gold media "Experts" such as L Kaplan and his ilk.
Read here, buy here.
Zhisheng (03/05/03; 09:18:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98954)
@Dummy ANI
Your post #98953 looks interesting, but apparently the Japanese data was left off--or did you intend for the reader to fill it in? Tried the link, but my Japanese isn't good enough.
DummyANI (03/05/03; 09:04:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98953)
The decline shape of money: Weimar Mark vs Japanese Yen
http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=8301.q&d=ay
Sir Mr Gresham (12/13/02; 08:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 91489) presented the following article.
The Quintessential Inflation - The Great Weimar Inflation - Germany the Early Twenties
Julian D. W. Phillips
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/phillips121302pv.html
I am very interesting in this article, and comparing Weimar Mark vs Japanese Yen, and generating the next list.
Date Marks to the pound normalized coeff Date price of BOJ share normalized coeff.
1920 Dec. 258 100(percent) 1988.Dec.08 755,000 100(percent)
1921 Jan. 243 106.17
1921 Feb. 237 108.86
1921 March 244 105.74
1921 April 249 103.61
1921 May 247 104.45
1921 June 261 98.85
1921 July 278 92.81
1921 Aug 307 84.04
1921 Sep. 390 66.15
1921 Oct. 582 44.33
1921 Nov. 1,041 24.78
1921 Dec. 794 32.49
1922 Jan. 811 31.81
1922 Feb. 907 28.45
1922 March 1,246 20.71
1922 April 1,285 20.08
1922 May 1,294 19.94
1922 June 1,410 18.30
1922 July 2,200 11.73
1922 Aug. 5,074 05.08 2003.Feb. 45,500 6.026
1922 Sep. 6,502 03.97
1922 Oct. 14,146 01.824
1922 Nov. 32.146 00.8026
1922 Dec. 34,858 00.7401
1923 Jan. 83,190 00.3101
1923 Feb. 130,750 00.1973
1923 March 99,526 00.2592
According to the decline shape of Weimar Mark, current Japanese Yen is in the Disaster stage between 1922 July and 1922 August. The collapse of Japanese Government Bond will happen within a few months.
D-Ani
Gandalf the White (03/05/03; 08:47:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98952)
Can you read CHARTS ? <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14]
IF I were a "CHARTIST", I would be putting on my "ROSY" spectacles.
<;-)
Zhisheng (03/05/03; 08:37:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 98951)
Measured Response
As the dollar has weakened the past couple days, so has gold strengthened, in roughly proportional measure.
The players seem cautious. Perhaps it is the uncertainty of war which makes men pause…..or perhaps it is mutual agreement among the big players to an orderly market.
Gandalf the White (03/05/03; 08:31:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98950)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
Join the FUN and become wealthy at the same time !! <;-)
===
Just enter either or BOTH Portions of the new CONTEST, and WIN "FREE" Gold and/or Silver !!! To enter, you must have a Free "POSTING PASSWORD". BUT, IF you do not now have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There WILL be FREE GOLD and Silver given away for the BEST ESSAY and most accurate Price Of Gold (POG) Prognostications.
<;-)
Tate (03/05/03; 08:25:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98949)
DJ to fall much further
Misetich
"68% report they are not pulling out of stocks or bonds, but are staying the course. Despite this long-term commitment to equities, 73% of respondents feel it will take at least three years for their portfolios to reach the levels they saw at the peak of the bull market."
68% not pulling out of stocks or bonds. This is why DJ must fall much further. Too many folks are still optimistic. CNN propaganda works well. More investors to be cleaned. Gold is well hidden from radar screen.
The head of New York FED about 1 years ago said categorical NO when asked by reporter if Gold Standard would be a possibility. Does anybody know if this hypocrite still occupies same seat???
P.S. Bribing Turkey did not work.
Gandalf the White (03/05/03; 08:23:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98948)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html
Please see the latest UP-DATE at the LINK above !
QUEST -- The APRIL 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3J) SETTLEMENT Price on Thursday March 13, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is HIGH NOON Denver time on Tuesday 3/11/03 !!!!!!
ADDITIONAL QUEST -- AN ESSAY CONTEST IN ANSWERING (in more than 30 words) ....
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."
Prizes are to be awarded for each of the two QUESTS of this CONTEST !! (BUT, one need not enter the Essay Contest portion, if they do not want to "confess", and only state a "why" statement for their Prognostication.)
===
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a "Discussion Statement" !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of Thursday, the 13th of March, 2003.
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY to accompany the Price prognostication,--- EITHER
1) A Statement of why you projected that price --- OR
2) enter the ESSAY Contest with an Answer completion of the confession ---
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."
===
THE PRIZES !!
The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN "Napoleon the First" (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece, with 0.1867 ounces of Gold, (and carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Rich, Did you see that?)
The "best, most clever, and most devastating" short ESSAY statement attached to the POG Prognostication, wins a The Netherlands GOLDEN "King" (King Willem) 10 Guilder gold coin containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK Rich, Did you see that?)
===
LET the CONTEST continue !
<;-)
mikal (03/05/03; 07:59:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 98947)
"Wild" war costs get wilder
http://www.etherzone/2003/pyne030503.shtml
A RECIPE FOR DISASTER
BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S POST-WAR PLAN
By: David T. Pyne
This week, the Bush Administration unveiled plans to station a force of 200,000 troops in Iraq for an indefinite period of time. Only the day before, General Eric Shinseki, the Chief of Staff of the Army declared that, "something on the order of several hundred thousand soldiers are probably a figure that would be required," to garrison Iraq after the war was ended. Both Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz responded by attacking General Shinseki and stating that his estimates "were wildly off the mark."
Retired Army Colonel David Hackworth has stated that virtually all the Joint Chiefs and top Pentagon brass oppose the Administration's plan to invade Iraq, an allegation which has been supported by various insider news reports over the past several months. Accordingly, Shinseki may have deliberately high-balled the number of troops that it would take to occupy Iraq to provide support to opponents of the war and allude to his continuing behind the scenes opposition to the Administration's plans for a new US invasion of Iraq. Previous estimates were that a force of "only" 75,000 troops would suffice. The latest rather conservative statement of the cost of war with Iraq and the immediate occupation provided by the US Department of Defense are that it would total $95 billion. With this latest revelation that 200,000 troops would be used to garrison Iraq indefinitely, it seems that this estimate would have to be revised substantially upward. Unofficial estimates including the cost of planned US funded reconstruction of Iraq which go as high as a trillion dollars may be more accurate.
The rationale for a permanent commitment of US forces to occupy Iraq, let alone an occupying army of 200,000 troops is visibly lacking and has yet to be explained by the administration. It seems that President Bush is intent on remaking the Middle East in America's image after all in a bid to make a name for himself in the history books. A permanent commitment of US troops on this scale has not been contemplated since the Cold War occupation of post-war Germany. For forty-five years, this massive commitment of US military forces in Europe consumed fully half of the US defense budget. Could an occupation of Iraq consuming as much as one-third of the US defense budget be justified? Could it be that the liberals are right that the Administration wants to secure permanent, imperial access to the oilfields of the second largest oil producing country in the world since the Democrats in the Senate refuse to allow him to develop our own ample reserves of oil here at home?
Some have alluded that this planned massive troop deployment might be aimed at affecting regime change in Iran, despite recent reports that it might already possess intermediate range nuclear missiles. However, the President declared 9-11 Islamist terrorist supporting Iran off limits to US military attack early last year and has since repeated that the US has no intent to attack Iran despite clear links to its support for Al Qaeda and equally despicable terrorists. This is after all not about fighting the soon to be defunct and in all likelihood soon to be lost war against terrorism. It is about fighting a war to "get Saddam." A US invasion of Iraq and ensuing indefinite occupation of its territory will serve to enflame the Middle East, incite further acts of terrorism against the US and make the current level of anti-Americanism there look tame in comparison. In short, a permanent occupation of Iraq is a recipe not for peace as recently proclaimed by the President but rather a recipe for perpetual war.
In his latest speech on his post-war plan for reshaping the Middle East delivered on February 26th at the American Enterprise Institute, a longtime neoconservative bastion, he stated that "the new government of Israel…will be expected to support the creation of a viable Palestinian state -- and to work as quickly as possible toward a final status agreement." Accordingly, even as the President is unflinching in his determination to invade and occupy Iraq whose links to terrorists are essentially limited to providing death benefits to Palestinian suicide bombers, he appears to be calling for the creation of what could potentially be a new terrorist-supporting state which could pose a dire threat to our greatest ally in the region--Israel. The creation of a Palestinian state and likely safe haven to terrorists and suicide bombers is in manifest opposition to Israel interests as has been stated by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Once again, it seems that the President's plan to reshape the Middle East will do far more to fuel the fire of terrorism than it will do to counteract it.
In his speech, Bush invoked visions of World War II and the reconstruction that followed. The President, it seems, is attempting to refight World War II. For him Saddam is Hitler, Iraq is Nazi Germany and the alleged threat to the US posed by Iraq must be met with immediate and overwhelming force to liberate Iraq from that unique brand of secular tyranny known as Saddamism Iraq must be garrisoned indefinitely with nearly half of the United States Army even though the Army is already badly overstretched by its current commitments and troop deployments. Such an occupation would leave the US powerless to fight and win even one major war and our enemies would be left free to attack, overwhelm and occupy our allies on the Korean peninsula and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and his overly anxious chief of US conventional military disarmament, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Steven Cambone are reportedly preparing to move forward with plans to cut the Army's already much downsized force structure by as much as 40% later this year. Such a draconian force cut combined with a massive US troop commitment in soon-to-be occupied Iraq could potentially leave the new American Empire without sufficient troops to even defend the US homeland from illegal border incursions, let alone fight new wars abroad. So much for homeland defense.
Secretary of State Colin Powell cited Bin Laden's recent tirade calling for all Muslims to rise up and attack the United States in defense of Iraq as further evidence of Al Qaeda's alleged ties to Iraq. In the same speech, bin Laden also attacked Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi government as "socialists" and "infidels". Interestingly, in a second audiotape aired by Al Jeezera, Bin Laden used the same term, "infidels" to describe Americans whom he exorted all Muslims to fight and kill. Accordingly, far from demonstrating a link between Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden, the tape seems to indicate that Bin Laden considers Saddam an enemy, which he equates with the would-be American invaders of Iraq. The purpose of the tape seems to demonstrate solidarity with the Iraqi people both against invading US forces and against secularist dictator Saddam Hussein.
Bin Laden's verbal denunciation of Saddam Hussein two weeks ago seems to indicate that he wants to see Saddam replaced, presumably by an Islamist leader like himself. He may get his wish since the planned smashing of Iraq and its military will likely result in a fracturing of that country into its three component parts—Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites—that will leave it and much of the Middle East wide open to Iranian, Shiite and thus Islamist control and influence. British intelligence and many senior US intelligence officials have pointed out that Saddam and Islamists in Al Qaeda and other Iranian-supported terrorist organizations are natural enemies and largely debunked alleged links between Saddam and Al Qaeda before President Bush's and British Prime Minister Tony Blair's politicization of their respective intelligence communities swung into full force.
Currently, Osama Bin Laden is relegated to hiding and has refrained from repeating the spectacular attacks of 9-11. He needs a provocation on the part of the US to fuel his terrorist organization building efforts. A US invasion of Iraq and subsequent indefinite large-scale US military occupation of Iraq would likely be Bin Laden's dream come true as terrorists recruits would flock to his anti-American standard and likely double or even triple Al Qaeda's numbers and funding....."
da2g (03/05/03; 07:52:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98946)
TC: Golden Haiku
Quite a formidable collection of Haiku! I enjoyed reading them again. Thanks for the effort.
mikal (03/05/03; 07:44:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98945)
The latest hard cash will be a sight for sore eyes- for those in the dark. In a pinch, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2003-03-04-newmoney_x.htm
Posted 3/4/2003 11:43 PM
It's not that easy being green, so $20 bill is getting a dye job
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON —Excerpt: "In three weeks, the government will unveil a $20 bill that will feature updated images of Andrew Jackson and the White House and, in the biggest change, include color other than green for the first time in modern history.
There will be one predominant, yet subtle, color that will appear in the background and at least one other color. Other features of the $20 will also change, but many details are secret, including the actual colors to be used, until the official unveiling on March 27. The bill will enter circulation in the fall.
"The colors are subtle, but they're not invisible," Bureau of Engraving and Printing director Tom Ferguson said Tuesday. "It will certainly be different. But "it is traditional, it is still American."
The $20 was last updated in 1996, 70 years after the previous redesign, as part of an effort to outwit counterfeiters. Although the best counterfeits are still made on traditional presses overseas, the popularity of laser printers and scanners has made it easier for counterfeiters to try to copy bills.
The $20 is the most commonly counterfeited bill in the USA, and close to 40% of the money seized in this country in the last fiscal year was made with laser printers, up from less than 1% in 1995.
The plan is to update currency every seven to 10 years. After the new $20 is introduced, the $50 and the $100 will come next.
Some features from the $20 that entered circulation in 1998 will be kept, but it's unclear if they will be in the same location or style:
Color-shifting ink. The 1996 update included ink on the number in the lower right-hand corner that appears black if tilted one way and green if tilted another. The Secret Service says this has been the one feature counterfeiters have been unable to reproduce....."
Clink! (03/05/03; 07:08:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98944)
Portuguese gold
I've been think about this a fair bit recently (not nearly as much as some other people, though, judging by the contest entries !! Some of those are so off the wall that they probably have some truth in them.) and was wondering just how big a stash 30 tonnes of gold would look like. I was expecting something impressive, but it turns out to be a cube only 116cm (45in) on the side. Wow ! That's dense !
PS. Believer, if you are going to make a shelter, I hope you are physically compact !!
misetich (03/05/03; 06:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98943)
Recession Forces 2.3 Million Households to Delay Retirement, Quicken Survey Reveals
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030305/55104_1.html
Snip:
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 5, 2003--Current economic conditions will force 2.3 million households to delay retirement, according to the fourth annual Quicken® Fiscal Literacy Survey by Intuit Inc. (Nasdaq:INTU - News), a leading provider of business and financial management solutions for small businesses, consumers and accounting professionals. The survey polled Americans with annual incomes of at least $75,000 who actively manage their investments.
............
Most Investors Are "Staying The Course"
While nine out of ten respondents said their retirement portfolios have decreased in value, 34 percent say they plan to increase the money they have invested in retirement funds such as 401(k)s and IRAs. "Many investors are realizing that retirement accounts carry both a short-term and a long-term benefit," said Baie Netzer, Quicken investments editor.
.........
68% report they are not pulling out of stocks or bonds, but are staying the course. Despite this long-term commitment to equities, 73% of respondents feel it will take at least three years for their portfolios to reach the levels they saw at the peak of the bull market.
.......
Elderly Hit Hardest: 21 percent of those delaying retirement are between the ages of 55 and 64, with 18 percent being 65 or older. By comparison, only eight percent of those ages 35-44 and 15 percent of those 45-54 years of age expect to have to delay retirement.
Women Remain Cautious: Women (58%) are less likely than men (46%) to make changes to their investing and retirement strategies.
*********
Misetich
Interesting survey - "Most investors are staying on the course" - The course in the last 3 years is toward oblivion
These adamant bulls are in for a rude awakening - they still don't get it - the big bad stock market bear is only finished his/her first course - and after a little pause - the big bad bear is on the roll again -
Presumably these investors have taken steps such as refinancing to stay afloat waiting for the magic promised land of recovery
These irresponsible Gurus such as the US Treasury and Federal Reserve officials are leading investors toward the slaughter house with their "positive spin" - as the sitting toads doesn't realize the water temperature has risen and they're being cooked to death
The Perfect Financial Storm is here - and desperate attempts such as the planned Iraqui Oil Rape is not going to work as expected - The Hail Mary Pass being attempted is going nowhere - the costs of trying to police billions of muslims is going to fail
All On Board The Gold Bull Express
Got gold?
Knallgold (03/05/03; 04:06:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98942)
"Still, the SNB seems to have established enough credibility with investors that they would use more drastic measures to weaken the franc if needed."
What an oxymoron!
LeSin (03/05/03; 03:46:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98941)
"POLITICAL WILL" & The GOLD/OIL & EURO v US$ - thingie
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/print.asp?ArticleID=79390
"Political Will" - If I correctly recall a certain old friend of this fine forum namely "FOA/TG" & "ANOTHER" spoke extensively and advised that the tech analysis and historical trading data would be useless when "Political Will" and Its' momentum changed, Yes/NO?
I think much of this storey has been discussed here, however is it not so very interesting to see this "stuff" slowly flowing into the main stream media.
This Gold/Oil & EURO v US$ & Iraq thingie is wild and about to get crazy.
Cheers "S"
snip:
"But that isn't the whole story. Not only does the Bush administration want Iraq's oil, even more importantly it also wants to ensure that the fiat dollar remains the only currency used for its purchase. Iraq has already swapped dollars for euros, Iran is currently considering a change over and so is Russia. If the other Opec countries were to follow, the dollar would collapse dragging the already fragile U.S. economy to new depths."
"Currently all oil-consuming nations are forced to maintain large reserves of dollars with which to purchase petroleum, keeping the dollar at an elevated rate of exchange."
"With anti-American sentiment sweeping the planet, the Euro poses a very real threat to the financial dominance of the U.S. In recent times the dollar has lost 20 per cent of its value against the euro, a wake-up call to the US, which needs to nip this new trend in the bud."
"The Arab world is unsure how to proceed over the Iraq issue, no doubt wary of issuing a direct challenge to the Superpower. A watered down statement issued after the Arab League Summit held in Sharm Al Sheikh last Saturday stressed the Arabs' "total rejection of any attack on Iraq" and urged that Arabs "not participate in any military action aimed at Iraq or any Arab country's safety and territorial integrity."
"It did not warn what Arab League members would do in the case that the warmongers refused to heed their call."
"Political Will"
"President Bashar Al Assad of Syria, showing himself as never before to be his hard line father's son, believes that if the Arab world could unite and gathered enough political will, it could avert conflict. He told the summit: "Somebody mentioned that we cannot stand up to the United States (referring to the recent fatalistic statements of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt). If this is the case, then why are we here?"
Snip
ElGordo (03/05/03; 01:47:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 98940)
Fed Official : More room to cut!
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2326887
PALO ALTO, Calif (Reuters) - A Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday the central bank has leeway to cut interest rates again if necessary if the economy falters, even though there is a possibility of stronger growth.
"If it were called for we still have room to give a boost to the economy, even in the face of some upside risks, because core inflation is low and trending downward," said Robert Parry, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a speech to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in Palo Alto, California.
Parry's comments underscored the central bank's willingness to get growth back up to full speed as the economy now faces a barrage of new difficulties tied to a possible war with Iraq, including uncertainty about the duration of a conflict and how long energy prices will stay high.
The Federal Reserve interest rate committee meets again on March 18, and most economists expect it will wait until some of the uncertainty about possible war and its effect on the economy clears before making any change in interest rates.
The Fed has already slashed rates 12 times over the past two years, taking the federal funds rate to a four-decade low of 1.25 percent.
__________
Canada just raised interest rates because inflation was
rising to about 5%. Strange, no inflation in the US.
Black Blade (3/5/03; 01:30:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 98939)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures slip lower, the USD is falling off a cliff, oil is rising back above $37.bbl, NatGas drifts lower on expectations that temperatures will moderate in spring (go figure), and Gold remains strong.
- Black Blade
Black Blade (3/5/03; 01:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98938)
Global Market Meltdown
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Globally equities markets are awash in red. A general lack of confidence in global equities markets has indices falling tonight. Meanwhile gold steadily grinds higher.
- Black Blade
TownCrier (3/5/03; 00:59:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98937)
You can't count on the Swiss franc as a haven, so look to gold
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1046847974nL05486859&tit=Swiss%20franc%20gains%20on%20dollar,%20SNB%20reiterates%20concern&type=indicator&ling=EN
HEADLINE: Swiss franc gains on dollar, SNB reiterates concern
ZURICH, March 5 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc's rise against the dollar continued in early Wednesday business as repeated jawboning by the Swiss central bank failed to keep investors from seeking the franc's perceived safety amid rising fears of a war in Iraq.
...A spokesman said the central bank was monitoring the Swiss franc's level closely but declined to discuss any potential consequences for monetary policy the franc's rise may have.
..."It seems plausible that the SNB intervenes on markets only verbally until the Iraq crisis is settled," UBS Warburg wrote in a note. "Still, the SNB seems to have established enough credibility with investors that they would use more drastic measures to weaken the franc if needed."
-----(see full text at url)------
"...measures to weaken the [insert currency here] if needed." Such is the fate of a national currency when the choice is perceived as a tradeoff between manipulating the currency for full employment versus strong savings.
Paper seems always fated to dwindle to serve the quest for social agendas.
On the other hand, in theory and practice, you should be able to hold gold with confidence as your form of strong savings. You'll never see mother nature intervene with policy measures to weaken its value in any occasion where the ecosystem happens to be slumping...
R.
ElGordo (3/5/03; 00:39:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 98936)
Tax Cuts in trouble, Budget Deficit exploding
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/05/politics/05ECON.html?ex=1047445200&en=09eba9dcb9b9dab3&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
ASHINGTON, March 4 — The federal deficit is growing much more quickly than expected, even before Congress takes up President Bush's tax-cutting proposals and without factoring in the costs of a war in Iraq, Congressional analysts have concluded.
Analysts for the Republican-controlled House Budget Committee have raised their estimates of this year's budget shortfall by about $30 billion, some 15 percent beyond the forecast that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued only five weeks ago.
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Seek a safe haven in a perfect storm.
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ElGordo (3/5/03; 00:23:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98935)
Greenspan warns home prices may "recede"
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=2326078
snippet:
"All of a sudden -- after all he has said about the house price topic -- to say home prices could recede, I think struck people, at least those who follow this sort of thing, as stunning," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders.
"Greenspan's comments showed there is a genuine nervousness about housing," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "And the rise in the activity and price of housing has resembled the technology and telecoms bubble."
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Greenspan changes his tune on housing. Amazing
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