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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/5/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

ski (06/05/02; 23:55:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 77599)
Silver Lease Rates Moving Up

Silver lease rates had been edging down over the past couple of weeks. Today they appear to have made a substantial turn-around and are again heading north. Silver is alone in this as the 3 other PM's show little movement. Worth watching??

Waverider (06/05/02; 23:20:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 77598)
Gold Conference
I attended the Gold Conference today and it was fabulous (BTW CarlH....not to worry...Bill Murphy is here in Vancouver). First a note about the demographics which I found interesting...of approximately the five hundred participants, I would guess that 95% were male over the age of about 40...interesting. The individual presentations by Bob Chapman, David Tice, David Morgan, and Ian Gordon were captivating, but by far the most interesting was the closing panel of the above mentioned names (except Morgan), along with Bill Murphy and James Turk. Some very brief highlights include:
- Bob Chapman sees the US having to raise interest rates to support the dollar (by August, I believe), which will lead to an increase in the M3 to buoy up the economy. He sees the DOW going to 8200 or lower, and POG going to $512.00 within the next year, or even $850.00 "depending on what happens".
- David Tice spoke about excessive credit growth in the 90's resulting in asset price inflation which leads to negative savings rates and the massive current account deficit. He sees real estate as being the method of keeping credit in the system while keeping the consumer happy, which will in turn, make the correction/decline all the more enormous. He sees consumption slowing due to the high levels of personal debt, and when it stops it will decimate the economy. He sees weakening of both the Can. and US dollar, with the CHF becoming the strongest currency, and Gold going to $700.00 within the next year.
- David Morgan - of course he sees the smartest money in silver.
- Bill Murphy " Gold is going to melt-up like Enron melted down...it's the gold derivitive neutron bomb...it's inevitable...it's going to blow." He sees POG $500/600 - $800.00 within the next year.

The energy, synergy and interest at the conference today was fabulous. I asked a few people in discussion where they get their Gold information from...all said USAGold, but none post...interesting. Both Bill Murphy and James Turk speak individually tomorrow...looking forward to it. Thanks to all for the news and posts today. Cheers!
Waverider

Black Blade (06/05/02; 22:34:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 77597)
Arafat Safe

CNN reports that Arafat is safe in his office. The rumor now is that Israel would like to exile him from the West Bank. Meanwhile heavy fighting is reported around the compound.

- Black Blade

YGM (06/05/02; 22:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 77596)
Focus on "Anything But Gold Derivatives" says Goldman Sachs CEO
http://webcenter.newssearch.netscape.com/aolns_display.adp?key=200206051736000270642_aolns.src
Goldman CEO calls for U.S. accounting crackdown
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - The chief executive of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs called on Wednesday for changes to a U.S. financial system consumed these days by self-doubt, including a crackdown on accountants.

***Laughable........YGM.

Cavan Man (06/05/02; 21:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 77595)
The BIS
Good find by Sean and Chris. The BIS is a distinctly European institution though having global membership; at lest that is my impression. I wonder what their opinion is of the economic/financial/monetary challenges we face here in the west. I wonder if the BIS was consulted about the Euro. I simply wonder.

Solomon Weaver (06/05/02; 21:22:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77594)
Answer for Nomad
Chances of Nuclear used in India Pakistan in next six months......less than 1%. India would have to have engaged in a brutal ground war with very heavy losses before Pakistan would do this...they may be proud, but they do not want to go into the history books along with USA as the only to use nukes.

Price of gold even if it happened would fall as world would once again consider dollar a safe haven.

Poor old Solomon

goldquest (06/05/02; 21:22:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 77593)
If Arafat Is TU
Gold could be at $400 by morning!

sector (06/05/02; 21:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 77592)
@CavenMan Central Banks...Could They Go Long?
If it serves their national interest...Of Course!
The current paradigm is the dollar and US promises to repay its debt.

In two weeks all that could change. Especially the next two weeks.

If central banks see US dominance failing, stability evaporating, they could go long simply by not selling [Watch the Swiss on this one] or lending bullion. They could frustrate Greenspan by a strict adherence to the WA [They already HAVE in large measure], no matter what. Sure the bankers could run for the hills. It's not like they have deep ideals or a moral compass. They have participated in one of the dirtiest criminal activities in the history of civilization. Are we to expect them to act honorably and stand by the US?

Three guesses.

What would happen when they bolt? POG rockets. The Fed tries to "Buy" gold mines, only to find out that corporate by-laws have been changed, poison pills invoked and their mighty exit plan has fizzled....the Abyss...as Eddie George called it.

The future will not be like the past.


darkhorse (06/05/02; 21:17:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 77591)
Sierra Madre (# 77564)
If this is really what they're working towards (not too hard to see it happening), SA would become one big "bullion bank". I'd be willing to bet ya wouldn't see any hedging though!

Black Blade (06/05/02; 21:11:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 77590)
Rumor Just Out - Arafat Dead

I haven't heard anything concrete, but some Middle Eastern analyst on CNN said that Arafat may have been executed by Israeli troops. Still looking for confirmation. I just read that Bush talked to Sharon and in the discussion he said: "do you plan to kill Arafat?" Sharon: "No" Bush: "That's good". If true this could actually create more problems. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Brett Woods (06/05/02; 21:04:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77589)
ODE TO DINSA MEHTA,
JP MORGAN'S RECENTLY RETIRED
MANAGING DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL COMMODITIES:

Dinsa Mehta, who professed to know better
Abandoned ideas as soon as they fettered his
Swagger and strutt and condemning rebutt,
His polished tooth leer and proud sigh of "putt"
And all of the City folk, save as they may brought
Their wagons with dollars to Hamilin that day
With the wonderfull feeling of being correct;
The groovy group swaying and marching in step.
All out of Hamilin and onto the cliffs where
The waves of time writhe and spatter and hiss
With a pot of gold, sold at the edge of the cliff
To later be bought with the pot in the mist.

Mehta was piping and dancing a twist.
Oh, the cries of "Efficiency!" rang in the air
As arm in arm, bankers hugged; greedy to share
With childish delight, the shout of the barker and
The shimmering light. And details of mergers
Were smoothed in the night. And where there
Were five, behold! There are two. Gone was diversity,
And born anew, a thoroughbred prancing, a single
Fine strain like a mountain meadow replaced with one grain,
Agreement and fullfillment the same, yet one common cold,
One ailment or woe...

With a leader so fine to stand at the front, how
Could any commoner wish less than to stand
Shoulder to shoulder, pike beside pike in rows
Back to front?

"Where shall we march?" "Where Mehta says!"
Over the bridge we see stretch from the ledge
And on to gold we must buy and replace!

And when the time came, at the seargent's call,
"Left! Right!" Dinsa Mehta stepped lightly sideways
And bent to look at the prettiest of daisies
Sprouting from a low green nook. All of a sudden
His bloated frame shook with disease and he thought
Of what pleasure he might have with a book. He danced
A quick jig, decanted a swig and with a stroke of his pen,
Resigned there and then. He danced off stage right with
A demure "Good night!" as easy as standing and leaving
The table from a good game of poker, while one is still able.

There's more of course, about the muddle and hoarse cries,
The confusion, and the lessons to be learned regarding
Diversity of opinion...


~Brett Woods



YGM (06/05/02; 21:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 77588)
How the BIS was rigging gold even 20 years ago
Thanks to Chris Powell and Sean Corrigan for that!
That was an incredibly revealing look at the inner workings of the BIS...With all the other information to be gleaned nowadays re CBs', Rothschilds, Rockefellers etc etc etc, one must wonder (at least I do) if the so called Cabal can just go on doing their dirty work forever....Talk about David and Goliath!!!! Somehow I fear that even thru a world war they could just find new ways to get fatter and although Gold may indeed soar for those that hold the physical, the game would not change...Hmmmm, more food for thought.

Cavan Man (06/05/02; 20:13:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77586)
Chris Powell
All the central banks were rigging gold twenty years ago. In fact, the "rigging" as you so aptly put it goes back longer than that I bet.

The difference today is the changing global monetary landscape. We've had no change in over thirty years. That's a long time without any change in the history of money as we know/knew it.

I think a good question to ask at some point is, could the BIS change course and go long; GO GOLD?

Nomad (06/05/02; 20:03:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 77585)
War Poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/06/06/wkash06.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/06/06/ixport.html

I would like to know what ALL of you think about the folowing :

1) Please give your odds of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan within the next 6 months :

2) If such a nuclear 'exchange' (always loved that word ... so sanitary) occurs, what will be the minimum amount the spot gold price increases in the days/weeks following.


My answers :

1) Better than 50 percent.

2) At least $ 50

I think that it will occur either in the next 2 weeks or just after the monsoons stop in 2 months.

Most importantly, a Indo-Pak war represents yet another event/series of events leading to the Fourth Turning Crisis as I have mentioned many times before on this website (see : http://www.fourthturning.com).

Economically, and even environmentally it will have small effects outside of the affected region. However, psychologically it's effect will be DEVASTATING. Just like in timing the stock/gold market it is not the event itself that is important, but the PERCEPTION of the event that moves markets.

An Indo-Pak war is another in a string of UNTHINKABLE/NEVER HAPPEN IN A LIFETIME type events that will alter the mindset of the entire world in these few short years between 2000 - 2005.

Nomad

Chris Powell (06/05/02; 20:02:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 77584)
How the BIS was rigging gold even 20 years ago
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1137
How the Bank for International Settlements was openly
rigging the gold price even 20 years ago:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1137

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

mikal (06/05/02; 19:56:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 77583)
Gold plates no longer shut in cupboards. Good show lads.
http://www.News24.com/News24/Entertainment/Abroad/0,5036,2-1225-12...

05/06/2002 16:15  - (SA)  
Gold plates for McCartney do
London - Singer Sir Paul McCartney has invited 300 guests to his Irish wedding to Heather Mills next week and they will dine off gold plates. This is according to a US columnist.
New York Post columnist Cindy Adams said the guests "are all sworn to secrecy, lest this get in the papers".
....."Seated dinner is round tables of 10 in white and gold with 14-inch gold serving plates. I mean, we are talking major elegant here," she added.....click link for more 


 


White Rose (06/05/02; 19:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77582)
Prices are only set back a single week
Right now approaching 10pm eastern time, prices are higher than the close. They are $322 Au, $4.94 Ag. I believe, these are the prices we first hit (during this run-up) a week ago. In other words, selling 700,000 oz. to the Kangaroos only set the clock back a single week.

The next time someone tries to sell a million oz of gold at odd hours, the price will go down, but by not as much. The whole market learns by each of these experiences.

I am learning as I go. The next time I notice a mysery sell-off of gold stocks in late afternoon, I will join in. I will buy back soon afterwards. I will use the profit to buy more physical.

Good hunting.

Pizz (06/05/02; 19:50:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77581)
Israel
Breaking news on CNBC. Israel attacking Arafat compound. Looks pretty intense.

Nomad (06/05/02; 19:47:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 77580)
WAR IN 2 WEEKS !!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/06/06/wkash06.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/06/06/ixport.html

I forgot ...

More Snippits :

The Indians want to move before the arrival of heavy monsoon rains at the beginning of July make military operations impossible.

Nomad (06/05/02; 19:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 77579)
WAR IN 2 WEEKS !!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/06/06/wkash06.xml&sSheet=/portal/2002/06/06/ixport.html

Snippit :

India's military is seeking final authorisation to invade the Pakistani side of divided Kashmir in the middle of this month to destroy the camps of Islamic militants.

A senior Indian official accused Britain, America and other western countries of "adding their weight to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail" by telling their citizens to leave.

"This is jumping the gun," he said. "Our intention is not to have an all-out war. It would be a limited action."

Most senior Indian officers expect that the conflict would last about a week before pressure from America and other powers forced a ceasefire.


One officer said he believed there was only the "slimmest chance" of nuclear weapons being used. "We will call Pakistan's nuclear bluff," he said. It [the nuclear factor] cannot deter us any more."


Black Blade (06/05/02; 19:43:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 77578)
California Orders Power-Plant Owners to Delay Repairs in Heat
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&tag=energy&middle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APP43yRYfQ2FsaWZv

Snippit:

Folsom, California, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- California power- plant owners were ordered by the state's electricity transmission network to defer maintenance shutdowns because of concern that the current heat wave may lead to power shortages.

California's Independent System Operator forecast demand may reach a peak of 40,691 megawatts, which would be the highest so far this year. The order is in effect from 6:11 a.m. local time through 10:59 p.m., said Gregg Fishman a spokesman.

The warning was the second this year by the system operator because of hot weather, which increases the use of air conditioners and electricity demand. Last summer, high temperatures and a shortage of power led to almost daily warnings, Fishman said. ``It is looking a little tighter today than we originally thought,'' he said. ``We still think we'll be able to get through the day without any rotating outages.''


Black Blade: The Grasshoppers didn't learn anything from the last energy crisis. Now they will probably have to go through it all again. The state may need to raise taxes and build new power generating facilities and upgrade the state's antiquated energy grid.


HOOSIER GOLDBUG (06/05/02; 19:30:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77577)
PRICING SYSTEM!
As FOA/Trailguide and ANOTHER said, the pricing systems (LBMA and COMEX) will lose all credibility for the pricing of GOLD in time as GATA/INTERNET uncovers the charade and PHYSICAL separates from PAPER GOLD. Then it will result in the many seated at the great table of this forum to do the pricing!!!!!! ;) Couldn't be any worse than the current systems. Let us now bow our heads and say a prayer that the GOLD CARTEL brings back the strong dollar, gives us cheap oil prices, lower gold prices, cheap imported good, etc. at least for another 20 years until I die, so I can accumulate PHYSICAL for my sons! I do not want INTERESTING TIMES!!!

Black Blade (06/05/02; 19:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 77576)
Will stocks go nowhere for years?
http://www.msnbc.com/news/761411.asp?0si=-#BODY

Investment firm forecasts a stagnant market and says history supports its claim

Snippit:

June 4 — After two years of watching stock prices head steadily lower, most investors probably concede that the outsized returns of the late 1990s are gone forever. But are they ready to accept the possibility that the broad stock market might go nowhere for years to come?

Black Blade: Why sit on risky investments like stocks especially if they are not expected to provide any return for years?



Black Blade (06/05/02; 19:14:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 77575)
Dollar and Equity Bubble Taking Turn for the Worst
http://www.safehaven.com/GoldenBar/GBR060402.htm

Snippit:

Who didn't see that sell off in the Dow Monday? Looks like we need a fresh scapegoat. There'll be plenty scapegoats on the way down. Speaking of down, the Wall Street Journal finally broke the news. Their title was "No Safe Haven: Dollar's Slide Reflects Wariness About U.S." I got the tip early Monday morning and went out to buy a paper, marking the first time I've looked at the WSJ since promising myself never to pick it up again, a little over a year ago. Now, the day they get the headline right is the day they get my subscription. Before the bull market in gold is over we predict they will. Thus, one day, not too long into the future, the headline will read: Gold Is Money.

Black Blade: Interesting article, but maybe the title should be: "Can You Find the Bubble?" in reference to the financial media hype over a supposed "gold bubble". Good Gold charts!



Cavan Man (06/05/02; 19:01:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 77574)
@sector
Think hard now. There is no way out? The most powerful are trapped and undone? Be creative. Surely they have a safety valve.

Regarding SA legislation; it is better to actually posess something that is rising in value than to hold a derivative yes? Taxation, even confiscatory taxation is still a derivative. I think we give the NWO crowd to much credit. They are bunglers just like the rest of us in the aggregate. Now, if you are an individual and sovereign wise well, 'tis a different matter.



Black Blade (06/05/02; 19:00:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 77573)
Market Wrap Up – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippits:

The job of Wall Street and the financial media is to keep investors distracted while they plan their exit. If you want to sell, you have to have buyers. So they hope that plenty of suckers are still around to sell to. Unless you are an adept day trader, your best advice is to use near-term rallies as an opportunity to dump your grossly-overvalued stocks. Ignore the BS about patriotism in remaining in the stock market. You owe it to yourself to protect your assets for you own good and the good of the country. The country is going to need those assets to rebuild once we get through the coming stock market crash and the depression that follows. As far as patriotism is concerned, the smart money has already exited. Insiders have been steadily selling off their shares for years. In survival of the fittest fashion, they have sold off their shares and are protecting themselves.

The price of gold has barely gone up 20% and idiotic analysts and anchors are calling it a bubble. If gold and silver are in a bubble, then what do you call Nasdaq stocks with no earnings, or stocks selling at 40-150 times profits? The gold market and the rise of gold and silver shares, which are up over 100% this year, are just in the beginning stages of a new bull market in real assets. The news about Pakistan, India, and the Middle East is just background noise that filters out the real story, which is the supply deficits. Gold and silver production will be going down and major mining companies are going to have to replace their reserves. No major discoveries are on the horizon, meaning the majors will have to replace their declining reserves by buying out other companies. None of this will increase worldwide supply of the precious metals. In the case of silver, we will soon be running out of our remaining stockpiles worldwide. This is the real issue getting clouded in the daily news which seems to focus on so many short-term events. The India/Pakistan conflict, the conflict in the Middle East, and the war against worldwide terrorism are simple land mines waiting to be detonated that will only accelerate the coming bull market in metals.



Black Blade: Puplava outdoes himself on this daily market wrap up. It is well worth reading as he dwells on the precious metals markets and the phoney Wall Street hype. I can't find any cracks in his reasoning. He feels that since gold has held above the $300 mark, the next leg up is $400 and beyond. He ‘s also right about a lot of pain in the future for gold shorts.



Hipplebeck (06/05/02; 18:55:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77572)
Belgain
Belgain!!!
I was going to post this very thought!
This is the way!!!
You wrote:
"I took my profits (300%) on GFI and exchanged them (the fiat profits) for Physical in Possession at 321$... hardly 10% higher
in price than the previous buys ! Dreaming that this kind of gorgeous action could go on for ever !!!
Play (!!!) the financial fiat gamble succesfull with only one purpose : adding coins repetively to the existing Gold stash. Too
close to perfection to be true !?
What if 1%...10% of repetitive paper-gold-profits, would (could) "automatically" flow into the yellow pool of Permanent
Physical WEALTH Holding !!!!!!!!!!! I'll hammer on this up until it becomes a common practice for all true Gold Philes.
Forgive me, please."


So true!~!

sector (06/05/02; 18:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 77571)
@SierraMadre...The New World Order and South Africa's Gold
The "Plan" Runs into Trouble at the Outset...
...due to the crushing weight of previous central bank gold loans [10,000 tonnes], not to mention the hedgers buyback obligations of 3,000 tonnes.

Until "Deep Throat" came along all we could do was to speculate about how much gold the treasury had left to sell in order to suppress pog. Now we know [From this one source] that JPM's "...gold derivative book was a loan book, period".

Analyze that.

Since JPMs book was $60 Billion [At $280/ounce] and now is a bit less [$45 Billion (Today's OCC Release Value for Q1 2002), they "Borrowed" a little over 214 million ounces and then sold it or re-loaned it. Subtract an additional 1,700 tonnes of West Point "Custodialized" gold from the treasury and there is not a whole lot left to sell.

The central bankers must regain all those 10,000 tones of gold in order to square their books. Their potential liability as shorter is unlimited since pug could go right through $400 or higher.

But the bank guys have to get these ounces from a far smaller universe of producers and a much smaller annual production. The hedgers are in the same bag.

They all are carrying losses...including CitiBank. Who, just today, it was revealed by the OCC gold derivatives numbers, ADDED 43% more gold derivatives in the last quarter. The LAST quarter they dropped about the same amount in a really curious "Turnaround". Perhaps the "Loan" they thought they had last quarter was "Called back" this quarter. So CitiBank's gold book had to be "Restated". Even their senior employees are asking about the "Gold Problem".

Is it possible for these central bankers to escape? To somehow get South Africa's gold? The short answer is NO.

All they can do is imitate Enron. Pretend they are successful...until Moody's or someone at S&P rips them to pieces.

As Aristotle says, the COMEX may be the pricing place but the vault is the "Bottom Line" place.

And the central bankers are light. Tap-dancing, whistling-in-the-graveyard light.


Aristotle (06/05/02; 18:32:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77570)
Sir Sierra, "Gold Advocates" and "Free Gold"
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html
Way back if February 2000, I tried to break some new ground here at the forum and shake loose some cobwebs (in my own brain) by delving into the harsh realities of the Gold Standard to ferret out why its demise had come about. As I gave thought to the matter, my investigations revealed that its failure was inevitable if not also completely natural.

I went on to describe what I foresaw as the natural evolutionary path for banking and for Gold's new economic role "within" the next/final phase of the still unfolding modern System. A perfect fit for use in an imperfect world.

In the process, to avoid the derisionary term of Goldbug in an already stressful presentation, I introduced the phrase "Gold Advocate" for my purposes, and have been happy to see it blossom into wider use.

I believe that it was at this same time, in his first response to my series of posts, that FOA first introduced his term of "Free Gold" (and variant "Free Gold Market") to me and the rest of us here.

These posts touched of a whirlwind of discussions on all sides of the matter, much of which was kindly captured for posterity at some pages that have been indexed in the Hall of Fame. (I've just checked, and yes, it's still there. The link above will take you directly to the start of it all.) Lots of reading!!! Or scrolling???? Ha ha!! Skip my tireless blather if you will, but be sure to give attention to FOA's input. Let's see... you'll need to scroll halfway down the page to find it. Oooops, wait-a-minute, he was posting at the forum as Trail Guide then. (I forgot that the moniker FOA became reserved for his Gold Trail posts.)

It's all good. More relevant today than it was then. "Time proves many things."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

slingshot (06/05/02; 18:16:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 77569)
POG
Two Days Early and a Few Dollars Less
Why can't TPTB knock the POG down on my payday? That's all I'm asking. ;0)
Slingshot-----------------<>

Sierra Madre (06/05/02; 17:48:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 77568)
Thank you very much, Sir Aristotle!

Clarity, brevity and truthfulness are the mark of a writer who knows what he is talking about.

Your piece is a "saver" and I suspect more than one at this Forum will profit from it.

I don't want to impose upon your generosity with your time and patience, but "Free Gold" - perhaps discussed here at length in days gone by - is a concept I am not sure I understand. I think that a review of the concept at this time might not be amiss, especially for those who, like myself, have not yet fully grasped what it means and implies.

Thank you once again, for your explanation of the futures market and its impact on spot.

Sierra


Aristotle (06/05/02; 17:32:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 77567)
Sir Sierra Madre, let's talk price discovery American-style, shall we?
The American Benchmark for price discovery for Gold is the COMEX trade in futures contracts.

As you've pointed out, this opens the door to inadequacies because the instrument of the Exchange is not representative of an actual two-way physical market.

First, some background for anyone following along who needs to be brought up to speed on the mechanics of futures trade.

It's easiest to look at the Contract instrument this way. First of all, market participants pay an "ante," the margin put down for each Contract which is a pledge of their commitment to stand behind their bet -- at least for awhile.

Participants arrive as the exchange, some with perceptions that the Contract prices will move higher, some with perceptions that they will move lower.

To pay the margin and enter/open a contract with expectations that prices will move higher sometime between now and the expiration date (this attitude is called a "long" position,) this person is technically agreeing to receive 100 times whatever price hike may occur between now and when he sells his contract, or contrariwise, should he be wrong and the price falls instead, he agrees to pay 100 time whatever that price fall may be at the time he exits his contract.

Here's the other side of the contract -- the "short" position. This person pays his margin to enter/open a contract with expectations of profiting as the price falls sometime between now and the expiry date. He agrees to accept a long's payment of 100 times whatever the price fall may be; and contrariwise, if he has guessed wrong, he agrees to pay 100 times whatever price rise might materialize at the time he exits his contract prior to expiration.

The price changes on these futures Contracts as speculators show up to place their bets and stake their positions through time. If the longs outnumber and are more aggressive in their bidding than the shorts, the contract price will rise as it moves across the spread, ever toward the higher "ask" price of the nearest short in the queue. If the shorts are more aggressive, the price will fall as it moves ever toward the lower "bid" price of the spread being offered by the nearest long in the queue at the Exchange.

So in simple terms, this is what mechanically drives the COMEX Contract price. For brevity, I won't trouble anyone here with what motivates these long and short participants.

Obviously, no Gold need be set aside or taken off the table as these paper games are played. Longs *feel* like they have Gold, but truly, the shorts have the upper hand. Also a topic left for another post. Suffice to say, if faced with the prospect of ponying up cash to pay for delivery of a full-bodied contract of 100 ounces, most longs (likely with more than one contract) have wallets that are too thin. So in the end they, too, become a seller of contracts as they sell their position for a cash out (win or lose) rather than apply any physical pressure with a Gold offtake. At that point it's candy-from-a-baby for shorts to cover their position by buying offsetting contracts when the puny longs capitulate.

So, with America's Benchmark Gold price "discovered" through COMEX trading, where does the cash-on-the-barrelhead payment on the "SPOT" price come from? It is merely conjured (derived) from the nearest active COMEX contract.

Because the Contract theoretically represents the price at which market participants will buy and deliver real Gold at a particular date at the end of a Contract month, the going contract price represents a forward price and must therefore be mathematically adjusted or "corrected" for a theoretical "spot" price at the present time. This is done by adjusting out the time value of the Gold as well as the time value (interest rate, such as LIBOR) of the currency being used for payment/pricing.

It's a squirrelly deal, and taken together with yesterday's post on "COMEX Inventory" it should be easy for even the most casual observer to recognize how danger signals of an impending lockup in the physical market will not be forecast through the America's paper-dominated benchmark of Gold price discovery.

In the physical market, there is more new demand than new supply, begging the question: Where does the "extra" Gold come from to satisfy these needs if we don't have a legitimate price to clear/balance the physical supply and demand?

Anyone intimate with banking knows the answer. The wonders of expansion of the books through the lending process allows many "owners" of unallocated accounts to think they have unique claims for immediate demand on their deposits, when in fact they do not. It has been lent out to generate a marginal return at great risk. Along with the futures arena of price discovery, the unavoidable inflationary illusion of banking (bullion banking in this case) act together to give this lifetime buying opportunity to anyone wise enough to take delivery.

The physical element has ALWAYS been the Achilles’ heel of banking -- especially Gold Standard banking -- and modern times are no different. As we assess the international web of bullion banking practices today, we are staring over the brink of the mother of all bank runs.

Obviously, the Central Bankers are aware of the gravity of this commercial risk, and are impressed with the magnitude of financial crisis that could be precipitated as a result.

Through this, you can perhaps gain some insight as to why the ECB/BIS would be keen upon ushering in an era of Free Gold -- one less aspect of systemic risk to worry about. Free Gold would, in fact, impart a significant stabilizing force to any economy built upon its foundation... a foundation of real wealth and honest, incorruptible savings among the populations. People usually riot when their savings and future security has been wiped out. It won't happen under Free Gold.

Believe it!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

YGM (06/05/02; 17:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77566)
Short Side..The Sellers of Paper Gold..& Bullion Lessors..
When (not if) These Contracts and Physical Gold Loans are Defaulted..Who Loses?
My best guess is the Shareholders of the various Funds that these scumbags are operating thru.. I'm sure that any Gold borrowing or Shorting on Paper is done thru a wide variety of funds owned by oblivious shareholders, not with the money of any single individuals..Mark my words those not paying attention get left holding the bag.. 2-3 yrs ago I remember trying to make others realize that when Goldman Sachs went public (@ about $65.00 p/sh, I think it was) if one bought that stock you were buying all the shady dealings preceeding the public offering.. Just prior to the 1929 crash another Goldman Co went public and was around $105.00 p/sh.. A few months mo after the crash it was asked of a company offical at Congressional hearings what the current value was...$1.25 p/sh... These whitecollar coniving creeps know exactly what they are doing... The Fed and every other part of the Cabal is using and controling the POG thru these various Bullion Banks/Funds... The BB's and Funds in turn are trying to control the POG thru the debt load and granting of loans to the Miners, and selling short on paper... Hedge or we cut off the cash flow! They are engaged in nothing more than the Heroin dealer who gets his clientel hooked and under his control...

You can be sure of "Four" things...

1-When the music stops the principals in those BB's and Funds will have long since made their Billions...

2-The Musical Chair in which they sit will be made of Physical Gold...

3-Most Important of All... Gold "is" going to explode in the not to distant future...

4-The shareholders left holding the bag can and probably will be named in a wave of Lawsuits... If you own shares in a public Co. you can be named in a lawsuit against that Co.

There is an elite group at the top of the pyramid and they know exactly what and when... It will be shown if and
"when" the Dow crashes because of all this skullduggery (like it almost did with LTCM) just who the major short sellers of the Stock Market were prior to crash and we will know who had advance warning... Their greed has no bounds!!



Belgian (06/05/02; 17:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 77565)
* TRADES * and * DEALS *
We, small shrimps "have" to "trade"" nicely, orderly and correct, during trading hours. Giants are *dealing* (blocktrading) under the identifying radars, after hours.
The difference is in the "trade" and "deal". Trade is a straightforward affair and a deal is a compromise between two parties with a "constructed" mutual interest based on much more insider information with a manipulative character/purpose.

Big money never faces and takes full consequences of wrong positions. They make deals and organise / manipulate, ordinarry trade at their profit. In other words : how and when do you stop and reverse or influence a "trend" and its momentum ? That's what happened. "They" had some reasons for doing so and found co-operators / co- benefittors at the small traders (temporary) expense. Doesn't matter who is "them". The deal was to alter the trading trend and capsize the profit flow, brutally, to another side.

I took my profits (300%) on GFI and exchanged them (the fiat profits) for Physical in Possession at 321$... hardly 10% higher in price than the previous buys ! Dreaming that this kind of gorgeous action could go on for ever !!!
Play (!!!) the financial fiat gamble succesfull with only one purpose : adding coins repetively to the existing Gold stash. Too close to perfection to be true !?
What if 1%...10% of repetitive paper-gold-profits, would (could) "automatically" flow into the yellow pool of Permanent Physical WEALTH Holding !!!!!!!!!!! I'll hammer on this up until it becomes a common practice for all true Gold Philes. Forgive me, please.

Euroland dodozzzz-time.



Sierra Madre (06/05/02; 16:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 77564)
Just an intuition...but sometimes intuition hits the mark...

I have always thought that the international boycott of S. Africa and the ending of Apartheid and bringing the blacks to power was a screen for a take-over by the New World Order.

The laws currently under "study" by the S.African parliament, regarding mining, remind me of the nationalization of petroleum by Mexico in 1938. The plan was prepared in New York and the details were arranged and known there, before the nationalization was announced in Mexico by the "Great" Lázaro Cárdenas, a kind of Castro before his time.

The object was, to take Mexican petroleum off the market, and especially, to exclude British interests from Mexican oil.

Apply the same to S. Africa. The powers that be, want to crush S. Africa, destroy its mining, and what better process than to put the government into the business. Guaranteed catastrophe!

My intuition tells me that TPTB don't care about more gold coming on to the market. They want control of the source of the gold, in any case, and what better way to do it than to wreck the mining industry, then lend billions upon billions to S. African Gov't, which will have to hock its future production of gold. This gold TPTB can then feed into the market to control its price; or use it to cover their short positions.

This is not the S. African government acting; it is the agent for superior power or powers.

Just my intuition.

Sierra

Belgian (06/05/02; 16:13:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77563)
Trades....deals.....rumors.....interventions.....
ALL pro Gold charts and momentums are there to stay in their irreversable trends, benefitting the future exposure of Gold's Value. Nothing has been broken to signal a stop and reverse in POG rise. The POG can't be stopped anymore...only delayed for substantial (brutal) appreciation. Strong language and a risky statement !?

Antal Fekete, explains why there is no such thing as a zero sum game. The 21 year decline and strict control of P(paper)POG (Hoi C.M.) will take its toll (soon). All forward sales and/or leasing of all kinds of Gold, followed an intentional price downline for more than 20 years. The US$ and interest rates could "stabilize" on the back of Gold's price control and NOT the other way around. We could start listing who benefitted or lost from this mega derivative
trade...deal...intervention. But irrelevant when approaching the denouement of the no-zero-sum game. All past 20 yrs trends have stopped and reversed decisevely and are building their mirror image. Trades, deals and interventions will soon embark on a non-managed (managable) course. The real four seasons will gain the upperhand when this artificial, neverending summer, ends.

A "Valuation" renaissance. Basta with the theatre ! Defaults, unemployment, natural growth, real exchange rates, easy money...etc, will claim their rights during the natural evolution/cycles of the four seasons.

POG should find support at the 315$ level, where it left (overshot) its rising channel. The sept. '99 WA peak of 332$ is (was) a natural pauze (attraction) point. But the real turnaround has been established and is irreversable. Euro guarantee on this ! All brakes are on the Dow-index decline and stabilizing dollar/euro exchange rate. But the A/D -line of the SP-500 indicates that more and more individual shares are unmasked from their maniacal valuation. Trades, deals and interventions are losing their grip(s) on the underlying over-valueds. The dike(s) will break when we run out of fingers to fill the encreasing numbers of widening holes. The toxic over-valued water keeps on building pressure. All this is daily illustrated by hard working, thought sharing, forumers, here at CPM. Not a single positive "fundamental" has ever been found and posted as a contra-argument !!!

The price of the valuable Gold will certainly be under the very lucky and very few survivers (triomphers), during the coming final reckoning.

Incognito block deals after trading hours, will resort less disturbing (trendsetting) effects on the official and visible trades. They are running out on "original" (lucid) rumors.
They will find fewer authoritive candidates to produce anti Gold menaces. "They, them" ...the financial managers and jongleurs. *Time*, gaining in weight, is against their lucrative, highly unproductive, pseudo-financial acts, feeding the only alternative of "enforced" deflation.
The end is near ! Personally I bet on "very" near !?

Rumsfeld, between the lines, has a timing-problem with ME-oil conquest (Iraq) due to the second Taliban (fundamentalist) front, (re)opened in the Kashmir disputed region. The Palestinian dangerous disturbance works in concert with increased nuclear/terror/ threats. Too much serious (and fragmented) fronts at the same time. There seems to be no serious effort to neutralize or calm down the organized jihads. As if subconsciously, "war" is disered as sole solution to this catch 22 economico/financial disaster in the make. This certainly adds to the theory that deflation has run its course and hyperinflala is coming next to us !

What other argument do we need for having more Physical Yellow, other than the impossible "timing" ?



Sierra Madre (06/05/02; 15:46:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 77562)
Not that it makes that much difference to me, but...
I always want to learn a little more; so, would someone please be kind enough to explain to me how the sale of a futures contract affects the price we see on the neighboring forum, or on the INO quote, both of which I take to be quotes for spot transactions actually taking place, where physical gold changes owners.

I should know, but my thoughts are not clear on the subject.

My thanks in advance, for anyone wishing to enlighten me.
Those selling future contracts are not giving up any physical, are they? They are giving up a CHANCE TO PURCHASE physical at X price, and not the yellow stuff itself. Not the same thing, at all.

Further, about that spike downward yesterday and further drop down to 321 or so:

This is all evidence of desperation on the part of those who are attempting to suppress the price of gold. They will fail, without a shadow of a doubt, as those who want the physical are millions all over the world. The gold shorts are desperate and powerful men; it is to be expected they will act in desperation. However, their ship is sinking and no amount of bailing is going to save them.

Sierra

Aristotle (06/05/02; 15:37:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 77561)
Leigh and others, try to keep your perspective
If ten weeks ago, when Gold was trading at $290, I had been able to state with authority and absolutely that Gold would be trading above $320 on June 5th, you'd have all likely been thrilled with that outcome.

Well, here it is. Why are you seemingly stressing out over the details of its exact journey getting from there to here?

Would you have been happier if it had dropped intermittantly to $200 first? Or had visited $500 for a day along the way? Or first one, then the other? Or the other way around?

It's not going to move in a straight line. I hope you all know that. So get used to it. But move it will. It's in the cards.

Now, if I were to suggest to you that Gold will be much *much* higher in 2004, that should be universally accepted around here as a good thing. But I'm willing to bet that a number of people are playing silly exotic games with it, and will be likely burned by the path Gold's price will take in the getting to there.

It's the rare bird that manages to exit from leverage at a real profit, while most others just get themselves cooked.

That's why I hold to my approach. I buy my Golden Property on nice days like today and then sit back and enjoy the view, taking pleasure in the fundamentals shaping up like the finest of sunrises.

The day will come when futures will sell off and the coin premiums won't follow them lower.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Jimbo (06/05/02; 15:23:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 77560)
My guess
Thanks, Black Blade, I understand your position. Since I'm under no restrictions, my guess is that the after-hours gold sell-off was perpetrated by a large financial institution such as Goldman-Sucks. Or perhaps the Fed was behind it? Someone among us must know, or have access to sources who know. What about it?

Black Blade (06/05/02; 15:10:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 77559)
Re: Jimbo

Which Fund or Funds? I wish I knew. As mentioned in the article, ACCESS trading allows for anonymous trading. The hours of the trading are suspicious and appear to have been closely focussed on a couple of trading months contracts rather than across the board dumping of gold contracts. This suggests that one or very few funds or traders were involved. I think that it was done probably for a quick profit and also to force sentiment and maret direction lower. I have my suspicions as to who, but I don't wish to invite a lawsuit here if I am wrong. The article that TommyP linked and YGM posted reflects what I was thinking about the strange timing of sales during illiquid conditions. That's my take on it anyway.

- Black Blade

Jimbo (06/05/02; 15:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 77558)
Which fund sold off?

OK, Black Blade and all you other gold sleuths, which unidentified fund sold off the reported 5000 gold future contracts in the after-market last night? I think this fund--and its after-hours manuever, which cost us all dearly--should be exposed. Your opinions, please.

Leigh (06/05/02; 14:45:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77557)
Eagle One
Let's look at your offer closely, Eagle One. You want me to give you 20 Eagles for Chris's release, and then you will give 10 to the kidnappers. No, thanks!

I got so discouraged today that I tossed all my gold out into the street, just like a Bible character. A thunderstorm came along and washed it into the storm drain. Poor Chris might be in that vault for a while. At least he has his laptop so he can fill us in on the latest GATA news.

TownCrier (06/05/02; 14:45:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 77556)
HEADLINE: The Afternoon Gold Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Excerpts:

June 5, 2002 (usagold.com)
...Gold futures as reported by OsterDowJones at futuresource.com opened around $3 lower when overnight losses spilled over into the U.S. session after a large commodity fund liquidated some Dec positions, as noted by one Comex floor trader.

...."We did start seeing some profit taking late yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon and it washed into this morning, but frankly I don't see this as anything that significant," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill. "The emotions are obviously running very high among those long (the market), and I think we've shaken out a lot of the weak hands," he added. "Gold is off because there was huge profit-taking by a fund last night on ACCESS," said a bullion dealer, referring to the COMEX electronic trading system.

The selling started shortly before the New York close Tuesday and continued in the after-market, where the roughly 5,400 lots traded was unusually heavy business for ACCESS. "I heard it was an equity fund that took a punt in gold, made a few bucks and took their profit," the dealer said. "Once Japan started intervening with the dollar, gold got sold off a little bit and equities coming back didn't help," said a floor broker.

...Traders estimated the Bank of Japan spent anywhere between $1 billion and $5 billion Tuesday to weaken the Japanese currency. Reuters reports that Japanese authorities sold the yen again on Wednesday.

...The pullback in gold price overnight and through today's trading appears to be a corrective phase in the rapid run up in gold prices that has seen daily upside moves for several days. The world is still an uncertain place with the threat of war in Central Asia, terrorism in the Middle East and there are new concerns today that Brazil could default on debt following on the heels of Argentina. The outlook for gold is still positive as portfolio insurance and wealth preservation vehicle.

-------(click URL for full text, on right-hand column)------

Bottom line: You'll definitely want to get into the habit of checking out Mr. Warner's excellent "after the close" afternoon reports provided here.

R.

sector (06/05/02; 14:39:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77555)
The COMEX Had Been Going UP in a Linear Fashion...
Hot Fund Money Doesn't LIKE that
See...the really hot, point-jumper funds like a cyclically upward pattern...a "Channel". We didn't really have such a "Channel". Just a narrow linear pattern.

Today they made a real "Channel".

POG now sits at the lower "Channel Marker" with $330 as the ceiling imposed by the Caba with it's selling of physical gold.

That they are being slowly strangled by gold at these levels is pretty clear to all. How much do they have left?

Stay tuned.

Black Blade (06/05/02; 14:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 77554)
Job cuts hit fast pace in June
http://money.cnn.com/2002/06/05/news/economy/layoffs/index.htm

Snippit:

After May, the slowest month for job cuts in a year, businesses are swinging the ax again.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" is set to grow higher still.



Tommy P (06/05/02; 14:20:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77553)
Thanks Johnny!
http://money.cnn.com/2002/06/05/news/rusnak/index.htm
this should help the credibility

Black Blade (06/05/02; 14:16:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 77552)
CNBC Reports

The stock markets have rebounded toward the end of session today. Bob Pisanni a reporter at the NYSE stated that the rebound was due to Larry Elison CEO of Oracle stating that his company will "not warn on earnings". That's pathetic that the market would move higher not because a company announces improved earnings or even earnings, but that they will not warn on unexpected lower earnings.

Then Pisanni actually audibly laughed on the air when he mentioned todays drop in gold prices. I guess it's safe to say he is not invested in gold.

- Black Blade

BTW, gold is rebounding slightly in after hours. The article linked by TommyP is worth looking at and it is as I suspected. Look at last nights posts and todays market report.



YGM (06/05/02; 14:04:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 77551)
Don't be shy Tommy P
Stick it out there for all... :>} *Linked Already previously..
Why gold tanked

By: Stewart Bailey


Posted: 2002/06/05 Wed 20:14 | © Miningweb 1997-2002


JOHANNESBURG – South African gold stocks were massacred today as freefalling bullion knocked almost 8 percent off the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's gold index. The fall in the bourse's gold stocks came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz and finally to $321/oz, where some dealers reckon it has found support.
Interestingly, one senior Johannesburg-based trader says the long-liquidation by the fund appears to have been an intentional strategy to lower the gold price. He could not give reasons for the fund's alledged intent, although he said it could have been a move designed to lower the gold price in order to buy in again at lower levels. The sale was executed using the 'Access' system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

The trader said the sale was made in an illiquid market, between the New York close yesterday and the opening of the Tokyo market this morning.

"They also sold illiquid months and that pushed the price down. It was definitely someone trying to butcher the market," said the trader. The deal was done for 2,000 December contracts, a particularly thin month, and 3,000 August contracts. It sparked a series of stop-loss selling which the trader said created a feeding frenzy among those long gold bullion; this brought on the long liquidation many market commentators have warned of in recent weeks.

But the bullish undertone in the market remains firmly in place, despite today's spectacular $9/oz fall in the price. Another bullion dealer said the metal would do well to consolidate at the lower levels before launching another assault at the key $330/oz mark. "We all knew it had to take a bit of a breather. This fall has been quite drastic but if it had fallen slower we would just have said it was just what the market needed," said the dealer.

He said upside for the metal was still in place as it continued to track the Euro.

The European currency's downward correction against the dollar last night, he said, was also a factor weighing on the gold price. The trader said, however, that the Euro was expected to strengthen further against the dollar from its current levels of around $0.935, which in turn would lift the gold price.

But that will be cold comfort for gold share traders who took a haircut in the market today. In Johannesburg, Gold Fields, the darling of the market last month, dropped 10.49 percent to R129.43, while non-hedging rival Harmony Gold lost 8.82 percent to R163.60.

Durban Roodepoort Deep dumped 6.18 percent to close on R51.65 and AngloGold, the bourse's number one dropped 6 percent from yesterday's record close to R628 a share. New entrant ARMGold lost 4.2 percent to R55.85 and junior Afrikander Lease took a 9.09 percent hammering to R6.36.

In Australia, the dip was less marked. Auriongold, the subject of a takeover bid by North American Placer Dome, shed 1.74 percent, while number two producer Newcrest dipped 1.09 percent to A$8.19.




Tommy P (06/05/02; 13:35:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77550)
The reason why Gold to a hit today
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BCF00643BAC?OpenDocument
Good read

sector (06/05/02; 13:25:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 77549)
@OldYeller...TKS for the Newbie post...But The Real US Budget Deficit is...
...$515 Billion [GAAP]
According to the recently released Paul O'Neill Treasury website letter.

Any body hear the mainstream media pundits moaning over this news? Nope?...Me neither.

This dificit number is tabulated very early in the recessionary cycle [Now]. Let's take some bets as to the final US GAAP deficit as of the 4th Quarter 2002...

Any calls for $1 Trillion?

EagleOne (06/05/02; 12:41:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 77548)
To Powell kidnapers - Chris Powell
Reliable party has 10 Gold EAgles to offer for release of Mr. Powell.

Eagle One

Old Yeller (06/05/02; 12:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 77547)
Ballooning deficit forecasts
http://216.46.231.211/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=124069&threadid=124069

New estimates reach up to $250 billion for the year,depending on Homeland Security and defense expenditures.

Revenues are plunging,too.If Roach is right and we get our double-dip recession as well as white-collar job cuts,the rosy spin presented by some dissenters in this story will be just that.

EagleOne (06/05/02; 12:39:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 77546)
Leigh - Powell Ransom
I will be glad to take your Gold Eagles. Does 20 sound about what he would be worth?

Jimbo (06/05/02; 12:23:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 77545)
Out of Africa?

The article below, posted on another gold forum, has me more concerned than today's precipitous drop in the POG. Is it time to get out of South African gold stocks and invest in non-SA companies? Your thoughts, please.
-----------------------

A Radical Overhaul for South African Mining
By HENRI E. CAUVIN
The New York Times Business Section, June 3, 2002

OHANNESBURG, June 3 — After more than a year of painstaking revision and top-level deliberation, the government here is about to alter the balance of power in the country's mining industry.

Parliament will begin final work this week on a bill that will give the government ultimate ownership of all of the country's prodigious mineral resources, which mining companies would then exploit only under license, giving the state the final say over who digs what and where.

With the new law, South Africa hopes to transform an industry that has been an instrument and emblem of white social and economic control since gold and diamonds were first discovered in sizable quantities in South Africa in the 19th century.

Since the end of apartheid and the establishment of black rule almost a decade ago, the government has made it a central objective to turn the mines into engines of economic betterment for more of the black majority, as they have been for many in the white minority.

Its principal tool is the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill, which Parliament will try to complete beginning Tuesday. Under the law, the state would assume ownership of all the country's mineral resources, a significant share of which have been privately controlled for decades, principally by the major global mining companies. To win mining licenses, the companies would have to promise to "expand opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons to enter the mineral industry," particularly by enlisting black partners and investing in black communities.

Most of the world's major mining nations, including Australia, Chile, Canada and Peru, have similar systems of national control and licensing. The United States, with its mix of private and public ownership of mineral rights, is an exception, in some respects similar to South Africa.

Entrenched though it is, South Africa's mining industry would have been hard pressed to defy prevailing international practices, so it has focused instead on fighting specific elements of the bill, not its underlying principle of state ownership.

The implications will ripple well beyond South Africa. Many of the world's major mining companies operate in the country, and several have roots here, notably Anglo American and its stable of companies. One of them, Anglo Platinum, the world's biggest platinum producer, holds about two-thirds of South Africa's platinum reserves, according to the government. Roughly half the country's gold reserves are controlled either by AngloGold or by Gold Fields Ltd.

Companies now mining in South Africa will have to apply to have their "old order rights" converted into "new order rights." All are expected to win approval, though some are concerned that the process will not run as routinely as promised.

The government's chief of mining regulation, Jacinto Rocha, said the companies had nothing to worry about. "Is there automaticity?" he said. "As far as we are concerned, yes, there is."

The Constitution requires the state to pay compensation for expropriated property, but there are unresolved questions about how this applies to the proposed law, most significantly to what extent mineral rights are "property." The bill's terms impose a long list of conditions for compensation, among them proof "of actual loss and damage," and it calls for the need to redress past racial discrimination to be taken into account. "It is," Mr. Rocha acknowledged, "very complex."

The law calls for licenses of up to 5 years for prospecting rights and up to 30 years for mining rights. Companies would pay royalties to the state, as they do in many cases today, but they would do it under a new framework still being drafted by the ministry of finance.

What is distinct about South Africa's law is its pronounced emphasis on social development in mining communities and on black participation in management and ownership.

No one in the industry openly questions those goals — indeed, many say they embrace them. But some mining companies and international mining experts say the proposed law remains too vague and too vulnerable to political whims.

In a critique submitted to Parliament last week, the South African Chamber of Mines praised many improvements in the bill since the first draft of December 2000. But the chamber, which speaks for all the industry's major players including Anglo and Gold Fields, outlined a number of problems and proposed some amendments.

For one thing, the bill is widely taken to mean mining companies will be expected to build schools, clinics and roads in the communities where they mine. But the chamber says it is in the dark about how much of such spending will be enough.

"It's not in the bill," Mzolisi Diliza, the chamber's chief executive, said. "You are expected to comply with something you don't know."

Mr. Rocha said the draft law was not the place for such details. "The bill sets the principle, the meat comes then in the regulations," he said. Along with a forthcoming minerals charter, the regulations that will follow the law will provide sufficient clarity, he said.

Still, many experts say, the most important questions must be addressed up front, whether in the law or in an accompanying document.

"The reality is, we are living in the third world, in a developing country," said Fred Cawood, a senior lecturer in mineral policy at the University of Witwatersrand's School of Mining Engineering in Johannesburg. "Just because the current government has the integrity to deal with this doesn't mean future governments will, and that's why the government has to spell out the rules of the game."

Another concern is that under the law, a court could hear a challenge only to the process of a decision, not its substance. That, Mr. Diliza said, undermines the security that miners are seeking. "You can follow the right procedure and arrive at the wrong decision," he said.

Rarely has a bill in South Africa faced the scrutiny that the minerals bill has — and no wonder. While the mining industry's dominance has slipped some in recent years as the economy has opened up and diversified, few industries are more central, symbolically and substantively, to South Africa's identity.

Gold from the mines on its outskirts made Johannesburg the commercial capital of the continent. Diamonds turned a South African company called De Beers into a worldwide synonym for luxury. Platinum is the country's next great hope.

But the boom that blessed South Africa largely passed blacks by, though they were the labor behind it. Even had they the means, they could not own mineral rights under apartheid law, and the industry invested little in mining communities.

So when political power changed hands in 1994, the mining industry was a prime target for black empowerment, the effort to integrate the country's capitalist class and improve the lives of the lower classes.

In her budget speech to Parliament last month, the minister of minerals and energy, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, depicted an industry that, mineral by mineral, remained largely in the hands of whites. "This," she said, "is not sustainable in the democratic South Africa."

By insisting, as the proposed law does, that companies use their rights or lose them, the government hopes to stimulate more turnover. The last few years have produced a few notable new entries, like Tokyo Sexwale, a former antiapartheid guerrilla leader who has become perhaps the most prominent black figure in mining. Earlier this year his Mvelaphanda Holdings was listed on the JSE Securities Exchange, the main financial market here, where it was joined last month by African Rainbow Minerals Gold, led by Patrice Motsepe, a former mining lawyer.

Mr. Motsepe said the government had a difficult line to walk: "The challenge — and I've got confidence in the way it's being done — is that while you introduce these changes, these social changes, that you maintain security of tenure, you maintain respect for property rights and you retain the competitiveness of the South African mining industry."







Leigh (06/05/02; 10:50:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 77544)
Chris Powell
Chris, I'd offer some Gold Eagles for a ransom payment, but no one wants gold these days. I hope you find a way out of there soon!

The Hoople (06/05/02; 10:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 77543)
Chris Powell
Do happen to see the bones of that Fed attorney who let it slip in the Fed minutes about gold swaps?

Chris Powell (06/05/02; 09:53:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 77542)
Help! I've been kidnapped by the New York Fed
They're keeping me in the gold vault downstairs, and .... there's nothing here but a lot of paper IOUs!

Carl H (06/05/02; 09:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77541)
GATA
Anyone heard from Bill or Chris in the last 48 hours?



goldenboy (06/05/02; 08:58:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 77540)
Kramrich; Housing Bubble; Inflation
Enjoyed your post, however I disagree with your assumption that real interest rates will rise to compensate lenders for their lost purchasing power. This did not happen in the 70`s. Sure, people thought it a great rip-off to end up with negative inflation adjusted returns on bonds, deposits, mortgages etc.; but that is what an inflation is all about- ripping you off. You have to decide whether to be a ripper or a rippee.
That the whole fractional reserve system/guv deficit financing/debt system is wrong, terribly, terribly wrong is not in question at this site. Goldbugs (I am one) tend to believe with religious fervour that the whole system is logically doomed. The problem is timing, and the tendency is to underestimate system resiliency.
When the Fed prints money with gusto, noone will be able to stand in the way and demand more interest because it is fair compensation. They will simply be swept away in tidal wave of paper money. That is why more people will buy gold. In the interim, they will also buy real estate because people use it and need it.
This is not to say there will not be a 30`s style collapse EVENTUALLY, but the system will avoid this like the plague it is. It is all about timing, do not be surprised if housing keeps on going, that is the nature of the bubble. Look at how long it took to happen at Nasduck.

YGM (06/05/02; 08:11:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77539)
The Golden Hammer....
Tranquilizers Anyone....
Just smile folks...You know what you know, you got what you got, and now you can get more.....YGM.

"Go GATA & GO PHYSICAL"

YGM (06/05/02; 08:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 77538)
Waves of Default.........Main Page.
http://csf.colorado.edu/roper/defl-waves/
Good overview and lots more......YGM

YGM (06/05/02; 07:53:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 77537)
Wave of Defaults.......Prediction.......They Won't be 'Orderly'
http://csf.colorado.edu/roper/defl-waves/overview.html
Overview of the Prediction

This site carries a prediction of and provides evidence for a wave of defaults that is outside the control of financial and monetary authorities. It might be thought of as a "disorderly" rather than an "orderly" workout of overindebtedness. According to the IMF and mainstream macroeconomics, there is no "debt problem," only a commitment problem. According to this view crises occurred in the late 'nineties because the political authorities in emerging economies lacked the political will or commitment to institute much needed economic reforms. Reflecting this "Northern" rather than a "Southern" perspective, the respected NGO, ICG (International Crisis Group), argues in a recent 13mar01 report, that "the problem" underlying Indonesia's continuing crisis is "the government's inability or unwillingness to implement fully a policy agenda that it has already agreed with its external creditors." Authorities have admitted to a problem of overindebtedness among HIPCs (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries). But the 41 countries identified as HIPC by the WB (World Bank) have (before any debt cancellations) an *average* level of external debt of just over $5bil, and this debt is almost exclusively debt to governments and multilateral banks (such as the IMF and WB). When HIPCs have gone into arrears this has not destabilized world capital markets. Whether or not more HIPC debt is forgiven by the G8, this does not matter so much for the stability of the world monetary system. The HIPCs are not only important for issues of human suffering, however. I argue that the inability of HIPCs to pay their external debt is the canary in the mine -- they are informing us of what's coming from countries with major indebtedness to private creditors.

**The prediction of an uncontrolled wave of defaults comes from the vulnerability of the system. That vulnerability comes from US household debt (over $6trillion) as well as the external debt of countries like Argentina, Indonesia, Russia, and Turkey as well as the volume of non-performing in the banking systems of Japan and Korea as well as the high debt/equity ratios of firms in these two economies. It also comes from G7 corporate overleveraging, especially in the telecommunications sector.

A driving force that is yet not expended in the world economy is the telecommunications revolution. The revolution will not be over, in my opinion, until wireless communications and two-way interactive video is within the grasp of the world's "middle class" (which is actually a small percent of the world's population). By the time that happens many brick and mortar firms will have been eliminated by this technological upheaval. But my prediction of a wave of defaults is not so much about the enterprises that are swept away by the profound changes in technology, but rather by the vulnerability of those economic agents who, like overzealous energy investors in the late 'seventies, continue to accept increasingly levels of risk in their efforts to participate in quick riches from this revolution. The willingness to assume unsustainable levels of indebtedness began when the rules of prudent borrowing were discarded during the inflationary monetary policies of the 'seventies and it has continued unabated into this new millennium.

before the new millennium. The 1999-2000 debt-relief/write-downs have been under the control of the IMF, Paris Club and London Club.

****What is being predicted here is that the defaults will cease to be orderly -- they will be sufficiently large to circumvent the control of monetary and financial authorities and become a "crisis," larger than the Mexican ('94-95), Asian ('97) and Russian/LTC ('98) crises which will be eventually seen as precursors to the final event which a weakened IMF will no longer be able to control via "bailouts." ****

**The reasons for regarding the world system as vulnerable to a wave of defaults are both historical and contemporary. From a historical perspective, I argue that "the West" has been in a Kondratieff downwave since the Monetarist/Volckerian revolution in monetary policy in 1979. The third world and emerging economies have joined their richer neighbors in this period of tight policy as a result of contracting debt in hard currencies and submitting to IMF stabilization programs. The treatment of this period as developing unsustainable real debt burdens comes from my studies (with others) of the late nineteenth century and the Great Depression and from a monetary interpretation of the Kondratieff wave. The reason for entitling this site "Waves of Default" comes from the historical similarity between the post-1980 disinflation and post-war deflations in the 19th and early 20th century. I interpret the recessions/depressions at the end of all Kondratieff downwaves as debt crises caused by commodity price paths coming in lower than anticipated causing a higher than expected real debt burden. I have, therefore, a monetary rather than a real theory of the longwaves down named after Kondratieff.

Back to the top page


YGM (06/05/02; 07:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 77536)
Debt Levels 1985 to 2001
http://www.bondmarkets.com/research/osdebt.shtml
Outstanding Level of Public & Private Debt
1985 - 2001*
($ Billions)

U.S.
Municipal Treasury(1) Mortgage-Related(2) Corporate* Fed Agencies Money Market(3) Asset-Backed*(4) Total


1985 859.5 1,437.7 372.1 776.5 293.9 847.0 0.9 4,587.6
1986 920.4 1,619.0 534.4 959.6 307.4 877.0 7.2 5,225.0
1987 1,010.4 1,724.7 672.1 1,074.9 341.4 979.8 12.9 5,816.2
1988 1,082.3 1,821.3 772.4 1,195.7 381.5 1,108.5 29.3 6,391.0
1989 1,135.2 1,945.4 971.5 1,292.5 411.8 1,192.3 51.3 7,000.0
1990 1,184.4 2,195.8 1,333.4** 1,350.4 434.7 1,156.8 89.9 7,745.4
1991 1,272.2 2,471.6 1,636.9 1,454.7 442.8 1,054.3 129.9 8,462.4
1992 1,302.8 2,754.1 1,937.0 1,557.0 484.0 994.2 163.7 9,192.8
1993 1,377.5 2,989.5 2,144.7 1,674.7 570.7 971.8 199.9 9,928.8
1994 1,341.7 3,126.0 2,251.6 1,755.6 738.9 1,034.7 257.3 10,505.8
1995 1,293.5 3,307.2 2,352.1 1,937.5 844.6 1,177.3 316.3 11,228.5
1996 1,296.0 3,459.7 2,486.1 2,122.2 925.8 1,393.9 404.4 12,088.1
1997 1,367.5 3,456.8 2,680.2 2,346.3 1,022.6 1,692.8 535.8 13,102.0
1998 1,464.3 3,355.5 2,955.2 2,666.2 1,296.5 1,978.0 731.5 14,447.2
1999 1,532.5 3,281.0 3,334.2 3,022.9 1,616.5 2,338.2 900.8 16,026.4
2000 1,567.8 2,966.9 3,564.7 3,372.0 1,851.9 2,661.0 1,071.8 17,056.1
2001* 1,665.3 2,967.5 4,125.5 3,818.2 2,143.0 2,541.7 1,281.1 18,542.3

*The Bond Market Association estimates
**Denotes break in series due to the inclusion of additional source data on private-label MBS/CMOs.
(1) Interest bearing marketable public debt.
(2) Includes GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC mortgage-backed securities and CMOs and private-label MBS/CMOs.
(3) Includes commercial paper, bankers' acceptances, and large time deposits.
(4) Includes public and private placements.
Sources:
U.S. Department of Treasury
Federal Reserve System
Federal National Mortgage Association
Government National Mortgage Association
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation


****To View....use link provided....No debt crisis my ass!!

YGM (06/05/02; 07:35:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 77535)
Black Blades Bone Pile........
http://www.channel1.com/~timesize/1bankrup.htm
Here's a list of those headed to the bone pile.....Many of which media ignores or forgets to mention...Slipping quietly into the night...Bankruptcies up 19% over /02

Jimbo (06/05/02; 07:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77534)
Gold newsletters skeptical


CBSMarketWatch's Mark Hulbert wrote an encouraging piece this morning (see below). In a nutshell, he believes in today's gold bull market because gold timing newsletters aren't bullish about the possibilities. Has anyone else found Hulbert's "yardstick" to be a valid way to measure this phenomenon?
----------------

Gold timers still skeptical

By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 5, 2002

ANNADALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Despite continued strength in the gold market, the gold timers I track remain largely skeptical that this is the beginning of a gold bull market. And that's bullish.

As of Tuesday's close -- after a day in which the nearby futures contract briefly rose above $330 and closed up $1.10 -- the Hulbert Financial Digest's gold sentiment index stood at just 45.8 percent.

This index is calculated by averaging the gold market exposure among gold timing newsletters that communicate their thoughts daily with their subscribers. The current reading therefore means that the average gold timer is advising that subscribers allocate more than half their gold portfolios to cash.

It's nothing short of amazing that the gold timers are not exhibiting more exuberance.

After all, that is exactly what they did on every other occasion in recent years in which gold showed even a fraction of its current strength. But not this time; over the past month, during which gold has climbed by more than $20 per ounce, the HFD's gold sentiment index has risen just 16 percentage points.

In early February, in contrast, the HFD's gold sentiment index shot up to 90 percent after bullion briefly eclipsed the $300 level. Today, in contrast, with gold trading nearly $25 per ounce higher, this sentiment index is only half as high.

Or consider the HFD's gold sentiment index in the fall of 1999, the last occasion prior to this week in which gold traded above $320. It shot up then to over 70 percent, more than 25 percentage points above today's level.

Though there are myriad individual reasons why various gold timers are skeptical of this rally, their collective mood reminds me of Charlie Brown after one too many times trusting that Lucy wouldn't pull the football away at the last minute: He decides never to trust her again.

It similarly would seem that, after having been burned countless times by false gold rallies, many timers vowed never to trust another gold rally -- even one as strong as the current one.

Ironically, this may prove to be the very rally they should have trusted.




LeSin (06/05/02; 06:38:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 77533)
@ Spelling - Sorry "Separation"

<(:-)



LeSin (06/05/02; 06:35:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 77532)
Paper Au v Physical Au - Disconnected -
Few Random Thoughts from my pea brain

I think it was "Miner" that referred to a rocket booster section, burning out and drifting back to earth or its real level/value as nothing after burn-out.

Paper Au will start to burn "down" as more and more is sold into the fire, (thoughts & the teaching of FOA & Another).
This will/has caused the seraration/disconnection. Now in rapid process. Why would anyone sell serious amounts of physical Au in such an unstable shifting market? Soon real gold to hold will not be found for sale at "quoted" prices,
what will you pay?

As the new East & MidEast gold trading centres establish themselves this month and onward the disconnection will continue. What will be the new "price discovery" system be, what - where- when?

I do not know - who does or can anyone speculate?
Cheers
"S"



Black Blade (06/05/02; 05:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 77531)
Desperate dollar 'set for euro parity'
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/top_story.html?in_review_id=604794&in_review_text_id=573750

Snippit:

THE dollar sell-off is gathering momentum, with some experts predicting parity between the US currency and the euro by year-end.

Black Blade: Interesting possibilities if parity is reached.



TownCrier (06/05/02; 04:28:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 77530)
HEADLINE: Pound must fall for euro entry (by at least one-fifth!)
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/020605/80/d0euq.html
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The British pound is at least 20 percent overvalued against the euro and would need to fall by that amount before sterling should join the single currency, says a senior official at the European Banking Federation (EBF) says.

"At these (current) levels, entry is not possible or advisable," he said after presenting the committee's report on the euro area's economic outlook on Wednesday.

--------(click URL for full text)---------

To my British associates, please see this for what it is -- a wake up call regarding the future purchasing power of sterling.

In its simplest form, the pound is "too strong" to the point of rendering British industry, goods and services less than ideally competitive at existing nominal wage levels translated through the exchange rate. Thus, it would not be wise to "lock in" at this noncompetitive rate.

Now here's the key point. This has nothing to do with the issue of whether Britain opts for the EMU or not. As you might well imagine, if British industry is noncompetive at current exchange rates such that it is ill-advised to lock in to the Monetary Union at these exchange rates, it only stands to reason that even with EMU put aside, sterling will not for long remain freely floating at these difficult levels. If the markets don't take it down, domestic politics will intervene to get the job done.

Are you prepared to piss away one-fifth of your current purchasing power through inaction? Don't take my word for it, but the writing on the wall seems pretty clear on this one.

A diversification into gold while the pound remains strong would be advisable. Give Centennial a call during Denver's business hours (subtract 7 hrs from London time).

R.

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (06/05/02; 04:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 77529)
Pound must fall for euro entry ==>20% property devaluation in the uk
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/020605/80/d0euq.html
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The British pound is at least 20 percent overvalued against the euro and would need to fall by that amount before sterling should join the single currency, says a senior official at the European Banking Federation (EBF) says.


The chairman of the EBF's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Martin Huefner, said sterling would have to fall to fair value for British euro entry.


"At these (current) levels, entry is not possible or advisable," he said after presenting the committee's report on the euro area's economic outlook on Wednesday.


Commenting on the euro's recent appreciation against sterling, Huefner said: "For the discussion of the British pound entering the euro, it is a very good development."


WAC: Is this enough, or must there be an outright crash?

TownCrier (06/05/02; 04:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 77528)
HEADLINE: In darkest days, gold regains allure
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/3403120.htm
by Andrew Cassel
(Philadelphia Inquirer) June 5, 2002 -- If you want the state of the world in a nutshell, you can skip the headlines, turn off Peter Jennings, ignore what's on the covers of Time and Newsweek, and just look at the daily spot price of gold.

People under 40 may not remember when gold was a big deal. Hardly anyone alive recalls the days when the U.S. government would cheerfully swap gold for dollars at a fixed rate.

That system tied the currency - and by implication, the economy - to the amount of one particular substance that happened to have been dug out of the ground.

We don't do that any more - Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Richard Nixon both had a hand in breaking the formal link between gold and the dollar - but gold hasn't become economically irrelevant, either.

Thousands of years of nearly universal tradition have given gold a special status. From Bangkok to Buenos Aires, people still treat it as a measure of value and a way to store wealth, particularly in dangerous or uncertain times.

Times like now, for example.

---------(click URL for full article)---------

The trend of the media to paint gold in a favorable light to Main St. seems to be growing apace.

R.

TownCrier (06/05/02; 03:58:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77527)
HEADLINE: Gold Hits 4 1/2 Year High - Security From Securities
http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=24264
Excerpt:

Gold rose to a four and a half year high yesterday, extending this year's rally to eighteen percentage points, as investors sought an alternative to volatile stocks and bonds.

Investors are buying gold in search of better returns and protection from a disruption to financial markets should India and Pakistan go to war....
----------

Nothing you didn't already know.

R.

Topaz (06/05/02; 03:28:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77526)
Cavan Man (6/4/02; 19:30:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77495)
What a quandrary the RBA has to deal with C-Man. Firstly the R/E bubble, given as the primary reason for the rate hike, is almost exclusively a Sydney-Melbourne phenomenon. Can you imagine the angst directed at the Governor from the rest of regional Oz who are NOT benefiting from increased R/E valuations AND are also suffering as Primary produce goes down the girgler due to the appreciating A$.
Fiat economies...a Jugglers worst Nightmare.

Black Blade (06/05/02; 03:16:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 77525)
Worldcom Considers 16,000 Job Cuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020605/telecoms_worldcom_1.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - WorldCom Inc., the No. 2 U.S. long-distance telephone company, is considering cutting 20 percent of its workforce, or about 16,000 jobs, in a bid to trim costs and turn the ailing firm around, USA Today said on Wednesday.


Black Blade: More "Phone Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". Yet another major Job cut announcement hours after Alan Greenspan said that such announcements were fading. Rumor has it that WorldCom may be filing for bankruptcy in coming weeks or months. All this while former CEO still owes $360 million in company sponsored loans. Hmmm…



Black Blade (06/05/02; 03:08:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 77524)
Car Bombing Kills 17 In Israel

Here we go again. Islamic Jihad has taken responsibility for a car bombing that killed 17 Israelis and wounded 35 on a bus in Megiddo Junction (northern Israel). This could kick up petroleum prices again as violence in the Middle East is likely to pick up after an uneasy calm despite Israeli troops and tanks moving back into West Bank towns. So far this does not seem to move the market futures in the US or markets in Europe.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (06/05/02; 02:57:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 77523)
Re: Topaz

I think we have discovered the "line in the sand" for the POG. Once the POG hit $330 an ounce it was beaten back. Then it was a matter of beating back the price in an illiquid market in order to set market direction. So far the POG has remain well below $330 an ounce and above $325 an ounce. Still the fundamentals are the same - weak USD, relatively higher petroleum prices, falling equities markets, threat of nuclear confrontation, etc. Nothing significant has changed in the "big picture". A misstep here or there could trigger another spike in the POG.

- Black Blade

Topaz (06/05/02; 02:45:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 77522)
BB re Puplova
That was really perculiar this morning (here) ! NY Gold closes @ 4am local and I usually get my first Au report @ 6am...$328.8...by the time I'd got to work (7.30), Reuters were reporting $325.1.....all this 3.5 hrs after NY close and 3 hrs before Syd open.......MOST curious!!

Belgian (06/05/02; 02:04:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77521)
@ Aristotle
Sir, read (re-read) "Revisionist vieuw of the Great Depression" by Antal Fekete (Safehaven-archives).
This to understand "WHY", "WHAT", is happening now. Sorry for being so short. Timeshortage.

Sector (#77501) : Good insights from you ! Thanks.

Gandalf the White (06/05/02; 02:00:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 77520)
Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 77498)
Spartacus (06/05/02; 01:38:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 77519)
Sir Spartacus said: "I hereby nominate the post."
---
AND I am pleased to be the first "Second" to that Nomination.
<;-)

Spartacus (06/05/02; 01:38:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 77519)
Socrates(Another) - Plato(FOA) - Aristotle

Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 77498)


Once again a masterpiece from the "Ancient Greeks" here on USA Gold. Very astute and worthy of a place of honor among the gilded opinions for which I hereby nominate the post.



ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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