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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/5/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Randy (@ The Tower)
(12/05/00; 23:26:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43048)
HEADLINE: China cleans up gold trade before WTO entry
http://www.dawn.com/2000/12/06/ebr15.htm
In addition to this article, I suggest you refer to the additional context of the current movement toward contibility of the Renminbi as provided in an earlier post (see the archives -- Randy (11/24/2000; usagold.com msg#: 42119) )
Reuters reports today from Hong Kong:
"In conjunction with its entry into the WTO, Beijing is taking steps to liberalise the gold industry. In November, it announced plans to set up a national gold exchange for physical gold trade among commercial banks by the end of the year.
Hong Kong's historic trade figures suggest this Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China should be sinking under a mountain of gold.
In 1999, Hong Kong imported 120 tonnes of gold and officially re-exported just 11 tonnes: consumption 109 tons. In 1998, it imported nearly 232.5 tons and re-exported less than 25 tons: consumption 207.5 tons.
The peak seems to have been in 1997, when the SAR imported more than 434 tons but re-exported just 7.5 tons: consumption a whopping 427 tons.
By contrast, Taiwan imported 84.2 tons of gold in 1999, equal to 3.66 grams per person for its population of 23 million."
----
On the whole, I would call the developing situation in China a reservoir of untapped potential.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(12/05/00; 22:38:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 43047)
Some prices moving up, some down; Canuck asks, "Can someone tell me what's going on?"
Let me offer this, though it can scarcely be called an answer to your question. (But for that, we need look no further than ET's recent post of Ed Bugos' words: "...unfortunately we cannot trust the market mechanism today because as we have shown in past commentary, discretionary monetary policy has skewed / distorted it.")
I perceive there to be in the minds of many an unnatural (or dare I say unhealthy?) focus these days upon "price performance" of virtually every tradable asset. It leaves the impression on a casual observer that suddenly life is meant to be traded rather than lived.
To make my point better, I refer you to a television commercial I saw today during the evening news broadcast. A woman ends up sharing a taxi with a man whom she discerns to be a broker for Fidelity. She uses the opportunity to ask him about her management options regarding a 401(k) she still has from three jobs ago. Upon hearing his professional remarks about rollovers and consolidation, she considered the prospect. "Hmmmm. My life...reduced to one sheet of paper. I like that." Her LIFE -- indeed. It seems that many of these people have a blurred sense of the point where paper ends and life reigns.
Journeyman offered an exceptional post, and a portion bears repeating here [with small amendment]:
Journeyman (12/5/2000; 12:03:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 43027)
"And you haven't beaten the goldbug until you cash-out that final option [or stock, or bond, or I.O.U.] and bank the buying power you've won. And you might not want to bank it in $$ right now." [If you see clear to exchange "the buying power you've won" for tangible assets while this buying power remains, this wealth endures and contributes to your life for as long as you retain possession.]
As LIVING creatures, when cold, are we not glad to put on a coat in our time of need, never once requiring a quote of current market resale price to appreciate or benefit from its wealth value?
As living creatures, when tired, are we not able to enjoy the comforts of a chair placed nearby quite independent of its tradable price?
When hungry, are we not comforted more by the can of soup upon our shelves than by its price?
When diagnosed with medical malady, are we not glad indeed for the insurance policy at hand, and equally so for a hospital mindful enough to be well-supplied with medical equipment rather than investment portfolios and ledger upon ledger of government grant money?
Real life in its entirety is no more about the size of one's account as it is about the possession of tangible assets...that is, until the previous expectation of good performance/exchangeability of that account is found to be a poor substitute for the needs of a living creature. As productive beings worldwide, we all have the right to pursue and compete for creature comforts and tangible wealth assets with the fruits of our productivity.
Where does gold fit in? Everywhere that tangible assets are desired for living a life in fullest control of one's productive earnings, held safely beyond the ever-diminishing (and sometimes plummeting) fates of national currencies. Gold serves where there is no immediate need for additional coats or chairs, and where universal liquidity and acceptability are desired for flexibility upon anticipation of future reallocations and adjustments to the totality of the tangible assets held within reach.
A friend recently returned from a trip to India, including stays in Calcutta and New Delhi. I was told of the luxury hotels where the price for a night's stay was $7...properly reflecting the LOCAL scarcity (and monetary value) of our U.S. dollar. This translates to less than one gram of gold for a night's stay...also properly reflecting the general scarcity and value of this gold as a tangible monetary asset. If gold can be said to be generally as scarce in the U.S. as it is in India, can you catch a fleeting glimpse of gold's potential for repricing to reflect a more consistent respect for its relative dearness?
Cavan Man
(12/05/00; 21:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 43046)
Canuck
Any manufacturing facility running close to 95% is running "flat out" and effectively sold out.
Journeyman
(12/05/00; 20:33:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 43045)
New and improved version @Hill Billy Mitchell
Hi Sir Hill Billy!
"But a physical gold holder does not have to contend with the disadvantage of timing his actions on a
short-term basis." -Hill Billy Mitchell msg#: 43031
I agree! Your wording is a significant improvement!! Thanx!
High regards,
Journeyman
Chris Powell
(12/05/00; 19:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 43044)
Gold market manipulation message is breaking through
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/579
Articles in the Australia Financial
Review and the Financial Post in
Canada, plus comment about a report
on CNBC.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
ET
(12/05/00; 19:23:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 43043)
Ed Bugos
http://www.safehaven.ca/GoldenBar120600.htm
Ed's new commentary with an in-depth analysis of the gold market included. A good read. From the article;
"What do we need gold for anyway if we've got the dollar? Apparently
nothing if prices continue to decline relative to the US dollar, though,
since when is anything good for anything when prices only decline? I
remember when oil prices declined from $20 to $10 in 1998. How many
people do you remember telling you that oil was not necessary to us in
the new economy? We know who talked the talk, and we knew then
that the talk was not true, but we also knew that humans would believe
it to be true as long as prices continued to decline. Many investors
believe that stock prices go up because of fundamentals (or a
catalyst)… as if some mysterious force (the invisible hand perhaps) was
recognizing these fundamentals and adjusting the market accordingly.
Of course, this is the ideal market condition; but unfortunately we
cannot trust the market mechanism today because as we have shown in
past commentary, discretionary monetary policy has skewed / distorted
it. Thus, fundamentals do not make the market go up anymore, cheap,
soft, and dishonest money does.
"This is called inflation and consequently, it is through the artificial rise
in US asset prices that the Fed (or Treasury) manipulates (raises) our
confidence in dollar denominated assets. In other words, the invisible
hand has been replaced by the Federal Reserve System, which now
gives fresh money to certain preferred junkies every time they run out."
Canuck
(12/05/00; 18:44:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 43042)
Weird stuff going on
Markets way up today even though "..Bush's win was already priced in..."
Right.
Spent alot of time rolling through last night's and this morning's posts from this forum and the other two. One thing is certain, there is a pile of people 'wishing' for the SM crash and gold's rise. That's what alot of it is, wishful thinking, not alot of fact, guesses.
The oil thing sure is a mystery. Iraq stops production and oil goes down, say what? Ok, Iraq resumes production and oil goes...down some more?
The economy is cooling so oil goes down, alrighty, sounds right; the stock market soars today?
Gold stocks way up yesterday, way down today, gold flat?
API reports refineries running at 91%/93%. I thought we were flat out? And unleaded gas falling like a rock? There
was an energy crisis yesterday and not today. What's tomorrow's verdict, back on?
Oh, it's 'VOLATILITY', what the hell is that? What's going on.
Can someone tell me what's going on? Please.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(12/05/00; 18:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 43041)
SteveH...
http://www.futuresource.com/reg/cgi-bin/art?001204/071038
Responding to your request for verification on the Friday trading volume of Feb gold futures, records released Monday detailing Friday's trade indicate only 22,047 of those February contracts were writen or traded.
Hope this helps.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(12/05/00; 18:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 43040)
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Cavan Man
(12/05/00; 17:48:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 43039)
wolavka
Why?
wolavka
(12/05/00; 17:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 43038)
Buy more gold now
tonite, don't wait, tomorrow maybe too late.
watch japan and china
Cavan Man
(12/05/00; 17:31:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 43037)
USAGOLD
RE: GWB
Cheyney is out front a lot. There's a reason for that. Many understand that GWB is not the best and the brightest. His Father knows this. However, an average manager leading an excellent team can be tough to beat.
I think it is fundamentally wrong to believe that any candidate can improve the lot of gold investors. Perhaps I'm too cynical. What is needed is a left field event. That's my belief. Until proven wrong I say, show me the money.
Farfel
(12/05/00; 17:21:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 43036)
Addendum: Today's Stock Market verticality
Although the absence of a bearish key reversal today suggests strongly a potential new bullish leg up in the stock market, nevertheless it would be interesting to know who drove this market upward.
If big commercials were behind the upspike then you can probably kiss your shorts goodbye.
If bullish spec funds, Yankeephile foreigners, and retail investors drove it up, then that will be of significant interest.
As I posted the other day, any kind of bearish key reversal that quickly wipes out today's gain could be the trigger to a panic capitulation. After all, the depression/shock/desperation would be intense, especially considering how many bulls most likely broke open their piggy banks to push funds into the market today, so absolutely certain that the Christmas rally arrived finally. Any such reversal would likely be the straw that breaks the bullish camel's back.
However the reversal must be swift and severe, probably within the next 24-48 hours. Without any such reversal, then we could see a slow long ascension, and who knows, maybe a reconfirmation of a bull market.
I do know one thing: given the plethora of uncertainties swirling around the world today, from the American presidency to the petroleum products situation, I think an excessive long position in the SM is akin to playing with fire.
Thanks
F*
USAGOLD
(12/05/00; 17:13:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 43035)
Randy/All: Two more points on Bush, Jr.
1. I should have added that if the Bush administration moves against the people who backed Hillary and Gore, it could add up to a positive for gold as there could very well be a move against the free and easy derivative slinger mentality that now governs Wall Street.
2. In this morning's Denver Post, George Bush is pictured seated with Colorado governor, Bill Owens. Bill Owens sponsored legislation in Colorado to kill the sales tax on gold coins. He also was instrumental in the letter sent to Congress and the White House imploring the two to squelch the International Monetary Fund gold sales pushed for by the likes of Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. Seeing the picture reminded me of GW's strong Western ties and ties to Western governors -- many of whom are sympathetic to the gold mining industry for obvious reasons. Just an additional thought that I thought I would throw out for consideration and discussion. Some of us here in Colorado think we have our own presidential timber in Governor Owens, if he would even consider leaving the state. I think right now he will be content with a Bush White House and doing the things that good governors do.
White Hills
(12/05/00; 17:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 43034)
Journeyman, Hill Billy Mitchell
I also miss the imput of Goldhunter and it would have been interesting as the coming events unfold to see if his position would change. Some years ago in Orange County, California there was a very successful Pyramid club operating that held out riches to those that would invest. Even after the authorites stepped in there were a group of engineers that actually went to court to try and continue the Pyramid. Goldhunter is so buried in the present Gold Market that he thinks if it will just keep going he will make some money and his judgement vindicated, I don't think so. White Hills
USAGOLD
(12/05/00; 17:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 43033)
Randy: On "Lindsey Unlikely as Treasury Secretary"
Thanks for posting that article (which I might have missed otherwise.) Mr. Gilmore raises some interesting speculation. Beyond what you clipped, I was also intrigued with the concept of a French style executive in which Bush would act as the head of state and Cheyney as almost a prime minister. I think we have seen signs of that already -- particularly the skilled handling of the transition news conference conducted by Cheyney last week. I saw the interview of George Bush, Sr. when he blamed Alan Greenspan for his losing the election in 1992. He was asked why he lost and answered that the recession and Alan Greenspan's policies were the key factor, so I can see how Greenspan might wonder how he would be affected by a Bush White House.
I will stick with my earlier observations that a Bush White House might move quietly behind the scenes against the Wall Street group that so heavily financed the Gore run for the White House, and Hillary's run for the Senate. As I have said since the mess in Florida started, despite what we see in the public domain, there will be plenty of old scores to be settled, administration fortifications to be built, and electoral/political security gained. It's going to take some major big-heartedness (even naivete) to put them aside. The Gilmore analysis offers much in the way of food for thought for those trying to see around the corners into how a Bush presidency might affect the markets. Probably the best single analysis I have seen to date on the subject.
ORO
(12/5/2000; 16:51:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 43032)
Loose money flows again
The rally in financial instruments is not only predicated on the Fed easing of interest rates, but on its injection of new money into the system.
The rally has centered on the bond market rather than the stock market (which values earnings as a power function of interest rates). The treasury bond and note rally which dates to the beginning of the year, signified a flow of money out of other instruments, and support from Treasury with the Fed joining in later in the year, some time in April or May. The sources of these flows into long term government paper were commercial bonds, particularly junk, and stocks. These flows continue as funds buying stocks are met with sellers putting the proceeds into bonds.
The rally in basic industry stocks that has been ongoing since late September (a double bottom, the second of which came in mid October) indicates a market expectation of higher margins for these companies producing steel, chemicals, and final products like autos, paper and dishwashers. The market has been saying prices for these items will rise relative to the costs of inputs (energy, wood, labor, scrap and virgin iron, money).
The rally in the financials started in March 2000 just as the Nasdaq had topped. Since bank profits are generated from the margin between the interest rates they charge and those they provide depositors, this could only have meant that the markets were expecting bank loan interest rates to meet lower relative costs. This was an intended consequence towards which the Fed and Treasury had both put in much effort.
The congressional attack on Fannie Mae was part and parcel of this attempt to make the banks more profitable.
The need for bank profitability is most likely the result of an uncomfortable proximity to insolvency as bank assets have dropped in market value, while their liabilities have not. The capital adequacy requirements to be imposed on the banks according to the treaties with the BIS and OECD member's regulators would not allow as much low market value assets to be hidden within artificially high bookings.
The treasury bond rally of this year had provided the banks with a lower cost of funds just as commercial borrowers were beaten out of the bond markets into the banker's offices. Since treasuries compete with bank deposit/paper rates, the low treasury rates created by the combination of Treasury buying, the flows out of the stock market, and the Fed, provided banks with lesser competition for deposits.
The fear in the commercial bond markets, shown in the enormous spreads to treasuries reflected the stock performance of the debtor corporations in the industrial and telecom sectors, which are the main issuers of non-financial commercial debt, and are the bulk of the economy (those that use information technology, rather than those that supply it). Industrial corporations were the prime American sufferers from foreign competition over the last two decades of the dollar debt trap which had forced producers around the globe to sell their wares at "fire sale" prices in order to obtain dollars with which to repay dollar loans.
The last door of the dollar debt trap was sprung in 1994 as the Fed raised interest rates from 3% (by far the lowest rates of any major economy in the world at that time), to 5.5% in 1995. By 1996, the rates at the Fed were the highest interest rates in the whole of the industrialized world. Yen and Euro precursor currencies were dumped around the world as funds were converted into dollars and flowed into the US. Carry trades grew and financial debt started to grow by leaps and bounds, along with the official statistics of US debt showing that nearly all of the new financial debt was sourced from outside the US.
The bear market in stocks that started in April 1998 with the demise of small cap "Old Economy" stocks, continued into their larger capitalization brethren and into real estate trusts and later into treasury bonds (since September 1998 and till the end of 1999) and then ate through the technology sector and the "blue chips. This leg of it is now over. The "Greenspan put" is being made good. Money will start flowing into the markets and general profits in American business will begin rising as they have not been able to since 1994-5. This time they will share their profits with the resource sector.
It is again the end of 1965. But this time, the dollar will not hold its value in either goods or creditor nation currencies. The confidence factor for the gold redeemability of the dollar in 1965 does not exist today. Watch out.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(12/5/2000; 16:36:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 43031)
Journeyman @ # 43027
Excerpt from above post:
"But a physical gold holder has an option an options player
doesn't: The physical player doesn't have to accurately predict
timing."
Sir Journeyman
You make such powerful points that I hesitate to attempt to add to your thread of thought; however although I am probably splitting hairs I would like to rephrase the above extract from your post to read as follows:
"But a physical gold holder does not have to contend with the disadvantage of timing his actions on a short-term basis."
In other words the holder of physical does not have an additional option, rather he has at least one less land mine to avoid, the land mine of timing his moves in a small window of time.
Sort of a cheap piece of input on my part.
Very respectfully,
HBM
PS: I also wish that goldhunter were here to give us some balance on this or would we choir members call it "unbalance".
Randy (@ The Tower)
(12/5/2000; 16:25:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 43030)
HEADLINE: Lindsey Unlikely as Treasury Sec'y
http://www.cnbc.com/cd/gx.cgi/cs?pagename=FutureTense/Apps/Xcelerate/Render&c=cnbcarticle&cid=cc119TBUDGC
With this excerpt from our newswire --- "I think it's time markets get away from assuming Lindsey is Bush's pick as Treasury Secretary and the oversimplified view that Lindsey means a stronger dollar simply because he had some unfriendly remarks about the coordinated efforts late last summer to prop up the euro." --- the writer adds credibility to something MK has been warning of in his daily Commentaries regarding the likelihood of a weakening dollar under the next administration.
This article is quite insightful, and reasonable glimpses of the future seem well framed in these two excerpts.
"Indeed, insiders in Washington speculated that Greenspan was hoping Gore would win, despite being a registered Republican, simply because he was so pleased with the Clinton approach to the Fed's independence and so unhappy with President Bush's attacks on Fed independence in 1992. Some economists have even speculated further that the Fed chairman may be less interested in hanging around as Fed chairman if GW's presidency picks up where his father's left off -- especially given the growing risk of an economic slowdown."
...
"Lindsey is a died-in-the-wool supply-sider, a member of that branch of economics that always existed outside of the realm of highly regarded academic and applied economics. ...not an approach that Greenspan has much time for. ("pop-economics") The area of specialization that Lindsey can claim is tax policy, which arguably has a better home at the National Economic Council than at Treasury."
Farfel
(12/5/2000; 14:42:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 43029)
NO bearish key reversal today in stock market...
NOT a good sign for gold bulls or market contrarians.
Thanks
F*
SteveH
(12/5/2000; 12:53:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 43028)
repost-- for ORO
www.kitco.com
Any credence to this?
Date: Tue Dec 05 2000 13:13
silverback (The source of the PPT's liquidity today) ID#221358:
Date: Tue Dec 05 2000 06:53
WIFFO ( On friday last 305,000 futures contracts were traded for february gold on NYMEX. ) ID#239307:
Thats about 900 tons of gold or 35-40% of the worlds annual production.
It was the highest single trading day volume since 1980.
That is on average 10x higher than a usual trading day.
Journeyman
(12/5/2000; 12:03:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 43027)
Buy an hold vs. CAN'T buy and hold @Megatron, ALL
Hi Megatron!
I'm enjoying our little exchange -- sort of wish goldhunter were
here too -- you guys are fighting a strong bias here, and while
preaching to the choir is OK, there aren't enough heretics to
punch holes in my "sermons" when they're wrong!
Anyway, the point I want to make is that, looking at the charts
NOW, it is perfectly clear IN RETROSPECT exactly how you SHOULD
HAVE played the options IF ONLY YOU HAD KNOWN _BEFORE_ YOU PLACED
YOUR BETS. If I knew the outcome of next Monday's "Monday Night
Football" game, I could make a pile. So could Forrest Gump. But
you see, you DIDN'T know before hand.
Over the last 20 years, undoubtedly many gold buyers bought
because they too thought they could _predict_ the future. So
far, they've been wrong. But you see, this subset of gold buyers
thought they could predict what was going to happen _before it
actually happened_ TOO! You can't, I can't, Greenspan can't:
"Whether we choose to acknowledge it or not, all policy
rests, at least implicitly, on a forecast of a future
that we can know only in probabilistic terms. Even
monetary policy rules that use recent economic outcomes
or money supply growth rates presuppose that the
underlying historical structure from which the rules
are derived will remain unchanged in the future. But
such a forecast is as uncertain as any." -Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, "Challenges for
monetary policymakers", At Cato Institute, October 19,
2000, http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches
/2000/200010192.htm
NOBODY can. Only, as Greenspan says above, "we can know only in
probabilistic terms." And if prediction of what is going to
happen is difficult, timing is even more impossible.
But a physical gold holder has an option an options player
doesn't: The physical player doesn't have to accurately predict
timing. He/she can keep his gold and sell it ANY time he wants -
- or NOT sell it. Of course, this may be limited by greed, fear,
plans, etc. But these limits are all immediately changeable,
merely by changing one's mind. There are of course life-span
considerations which thus far limit his PERSONAL options to sell
or not sell (but not necessarily those of his heirs.)
An options player on the otherhand, CAN'T buy-and-hold.
Predicting timing is the essence. He/she is FORCED to trade at
the end of each expiration -- if he hasn't lost. He may decide
to exit the game, taking his bet plus or minus his win or loss.
But he MUST, if he's going to keep playing, make a NEW bet
(presumabley based on a new prediction) and take his new gamble.
He must be correct in his bets often enough to recover the loses
from his inevitable bad bets, and in addition, enough to pay the
vig, taxes (if he chooses to participate in this voluntary
activity) and show a large enough profit to make it worth
playing. Are you? Have you kept good enough records to even
know?
But to do better than the buy-and-hold goldbug, you have to keep
up this accurate predicting (and timing) and betting for 20
years. And live with the stress. (And of course, "Prediction is
very difficult, especially of the future." -Yogi And, "... to
acting man, the future is always hidden." -Mises)
And you haven't beaten the goldbug until you cash-out that final
option and bank the buying power you've won. And you might not
want to bank it in $$ right now. Which you already know ;)
There are, of course, a few THEORETICALLY perfect strategies to
play the options as they actually played out over the past 20
years -- IN RETROSPECT. And there may even be a few traders who
got extremely lucky and actually played one or another of those
strategies for the last 20 years. How many do you think?
There's an old scam you sometimes see in movies: A conman goes to
the track and stands just behind his mark. After the first race,
he cheers and asks the mark if he'll go and cash in his winning
ticket. He keeps this up race after race, apparently winning
every race. The scam is that he's bought a ticket on EVERY horse
in EVERY race -- he'll ALWAYS have a winning ticket in each race.
It cost the conman a lot of money to appear to be winning, but he
doesn't care. He's just made an investment with the mark's
bankroll as the payoff.
Folks who look back at a record of what has already happened and
imagine that they could have bet it are sort of like that mark.
They assume they (or someone) actually won EVERY RACE. They're
correct -- but just like at a track without the conman, it was
nearly always a DIFFERENT someone for each race. No one
individual put together the end-to-end string of wins the conman
appeared to.
Of course as Teweles and Jones suggest, some people play the
futures markets for the same reason they go to Santa Anita or
Vegas. O.K. As long as you know your doing this for
entertainment (remember Vegas calls itself "The Entertainment
Capital of the World!") -- and you can afford it, cool! If you
can be one of the few, perhaps 10%, who win something, all the
better.
But Vegas was built by folks who were sure that _they_ could win
too.
Regards,
Journeyman
beesting
(12/5/2000; 12:03:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 43026)
Mr. Gresham....Real Estate Price Manipulation!
IMHO Real Estate prices are manipulated, consider this:
Every time a person makes a home improvement, property taxes are assessed at a higher rate.Usually each year, or every 5 years,local governments re-assess property values upward, to keep up with inflation! This only stops when there is very high general unemployment and/or landowners/homeowners over extend themselves to the point where many,many start to default on loans.
A growing population with high employment,guarantees a constant demand for housing.
Here's a true story:
I have a friend in Rhode Island that lives in a 100 year old house she owns outright.She's getting up in years and wants to sell it.Property tax statement says the house is worth over $100,000. The mortgage lender says she has to spend about $40,000(main supporting beams are getting rotten) to upgrade the house before they'll lend to a qualified buyer'she's on a small fixed income pension.All the other houses in the area are valued at over $100,000.
So, the truth is; If she bull dozers the house down, the lot alone should be worth $20,000 or so but she has to pay several thousand to the bull dozing company, much of it in disposal costs.
How much is her house and property REALLY worth?
Thanks for Reading...beesting.
Jeff
(12/5/2000; 11:59:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 43025)
test
test
Mr Gresham
(12/5/2000; 11:04:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 43024)
Real estate price manipulation
... also woke up this morning (sick, obsessed mind!) wondering what the analogy would be if Real Estate price was the object of their control, as in "Central banks stand ready to sell or lease real estate should prices rise... (AG on AU)"
Not an easy market to short sell, or a market in which paper claims could be mass-produced (moon lots? Mars?), but hey -- the wizards of Wall Street can do it all, can't they?
Anyone take a crack at it while I'm off being school bus driver?
Mr Gresham
(12/5/2000; 11:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 43023)
Gold flatlined
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton120400.html
Zelotes at GE nailed my recent wondering about the "non-perturbation" of the gold price line -- sure has been looking like an "Official" price to me.
"Yet, defying all attempts at natural explanation, the price of gold was literally flatlined between October 26th and November 24th. For an amazing 21 trading days in a row, gold traded within $1 of US$266 per ounce! One dollar out of 266 is a trivial percentage. It works out to four tenths of one percent (0.38%). The gold chart during this strange time looked like one of the medical monitors on a paramedic drama after they have lost a patient. It was as if gold was abducted by aliens and simply ceased to exist for 21 days in a row.
The peculiar nature of this tight trading range is perhaps best expressed in terms of other markets. For the Dow at 10500 for instance, a 0.38% daily trading range would mean closes between 10460 and 10540 for over a month. For the NASDAQ at 3000, a daily 0.38% trading range would mean closes between 2989 and 3011 … for over a month straight! If the equity markets traded like this for 21 trading days, bubblevision would go bankrupt as equity investors keeled over and dropped dead of sheer boredom. No one would want to follow daily closes within 0.38% of a central point, television ratings would plummet, advertisers would pull their ads, and the Wall Street cheerleading section would follow the dinosaurs into extinction. If this type of unbelievable trading collar happened in the equity markets today, there would be a monstrous search as analysts tried to ferret out the problem. It would be a media event.
This kind of price inaction in the gold market is just as implausible and downright miraculous as it would be in the equity markets. In order to explore the anomaly, a fair question to ask might be the following. "Well, if gold was so comatose for 21 consecutive trading days, was it because nothing was going on that could have influenced the gold price?" Unfortunately for that hypothesis, there was a LOT that happened during those odd days where gold drifted listlessly like a ghost ship on a glassy sea."
G: not to mention the smoothness of the price line over the past year or five... like someone adjusting their sell orders on a weekly basis...
beesting
(12/5/2000; 10:51:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 43022)
A Sure Way to Get More Gold Coins to the Public!
Design a SLOT machine that only takes certain Gold coins, adjusted so the gamblers win once in a while....beesting.
TheStranger
(12/5/2000; 10:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 43021)
The Phony War
I see where Fed Governor
Broaddus said yesterday that the Fed's inflation concerns are now on the wane.
So there we have it. The war against inflation has been won. Only
it hasn't been, as you and I both know. This is another eerie similarity
the current period has to the 1970s. Back then, the U.S. endured a series of
recessions, while the Fed only dabbled at reducing inflation. Finally, it took the joint
resolve of a Paul Volker and a Ronald Reagan to do the job properly. Volker
clamped down so tightly on the money supply that unemployment soared above
ten percent. Meanwhile, Reagan brazenly fired the air traffic controllers for
demanding higher wages. These actions seemed draconian to a lot of people.
But they were essential parts of getting the job done. Before the battle was over, the
liberal media was broadcasting pictures of bread lines in the Midwest and of whole
families living out of their automobiles. It wasn't a pretty sight, but it worked.
Inflation in the U.S. between 1980 and 1987 dropped from 13% to 1.5%, setting up
the greatest boom in American history.
We were still experiencing that boom right up until very recently. But today we have
another Fed which makes a show of raising interest rates while allowing the supply of
money to spiral almost out of sight. Then, at the first whiff of an economic slowdown,
it declares victory over rising prices. This isn't victory. As we shall soon see, it's only
a retreat.
And yet that is only one front in this phony war. On the other front, we have President
Clinton calling for a minimum wage increase and Vice President Gore threatening to control
the profits of the nation's great energy and pharmaceutical companies (he'll never get the
chance, thank heaven).
Trust me. More inflation is on the way!
Thanks.
TheStranger
(12/5/2000; 10:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 43020)
Test
Test
beesting
(12/5/2000; 10:43:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 43019)
Test
Test
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