Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...
The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/5/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. ET (12/5/99; 23:28:09MDT - Msg ID:20378) Dr. Hein Chains of Paper The traditional method of conquering another nation has been via warfare. It's a dangerous method, and leaves the victor with a seriously impaired property to manage after the war is over. This is especially true today, when weapons are so powerful and their effects, as, for example, radiation, so long-lasting and pernicious. Accordingly, a newer method has been devised: conquest by paper. There appear to be two variants of this technique: the loan, and the replacement. The euro is an example of replacement. The countries which have chosen to subjugate themselves to the euro-issuers are simply replacing their old monetary units with the new one. No more marks, pesetas, lira, etc.; now it's euros. The local paper currency will still be in use for another year or so; but important, and large, transactions are not carried out with those, but with check-transferrable credit numbers, which will now be called euros instead of their former names. Once the idea of the euro has become comfortable to its victims, the actual wallet money will be changed as well. Acclimation is important, because money is all about psychology, and people can become comfortable with the most egregious inequity if it is brought about gradually, and attended with much weighty discussion by serious types in three-piece suits. There have been a few protests already about the euro, with one euro-banker getting a pie in the face, but that was no doubt to be expected. There are bound to be a few people who will realize--and perhaps even a few who will care--that the advent of the euro signals the end of sovereignty. Sure, there will still be boundaries, and different languages and customs, but so what? As long as the conqueror receives his tribute, he doesn't care what language his victims speak, or where lines are drawn on a map. Sir Reginald McKenna, former Chancellor of the Exchequer of England, told us that "Those who create and issue money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people." Our own President Arthur said the same thing: "Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." With the advent of the euro, the situation has gone international. The people of eleven European nations now are not only enslaved to their own governments, but to the euro-issuers. Their absolute masters, who hold their fate in the hollow of their hands, are foreigners. And not a shot was fired! The other method of non-violent conquest is via the loan, as in the recent IMF loan to Brazil. It is self-evident that loans cannot be repaid, when the only source of "money" is a lending process. Money, or what passes for it today, comes into existence only as a loan. It isn't as though Brazil, having borrowed dollars, could go out and find some somewhere, maybe in the ground, or the ocean, to use for repayment. Nor can it manufacture them. No, the source of dollars is a lending bank, so the more people using dollars, the greater the number who will be trying to borrow themselves out of debt. The IMF, which lends dollars, is touted as an international agency. It encouraged "private" banking firms to lend to Brazil also, and guess what---U.S. banks did! Five billion. Of course, the 41 billion from the IMF is, ultimately, from the U.S. as well, since U.S. banks are the source of dollars. President Clinton hailed this explosive inflation, saying, "A strong Brazil is in America's interests.---A strong Brazil makes for a stronger United States." Well, if a stronger United States means one which sacrifices its own economic well-being for the sake of rescuing the banks, the President is certainly right. The only way a bank, which creates money, can "fail," is if its assets--the IOUs of its borrowers--are declared worthless, as in bankruptcy. That can be prevented by further lending, though it is prudent to use another bank for the additional loan, since some might question why a bank lends still more money to a deadbeat borrower. (To keep collecting the interest, of course!) A naive thought: if Brazil needs some money, why doesn't it just create a few tons of reals to take care of its debts? Why is one non-redeemable chit "stronger" than another? The answer leads us again to the concept of conquest. Admittedly, any fiat currency is as "good" as any other; namely, no good at all, or extremely good, depending on whether you're the issuer or the user. An aggressor nation, however, wishes to impose its own currency upon anyone it can; and if that aggressor-nation is also home to a productive people, blessed with abundant natural resources, it's not difficult. Dollars are preferred to reals because you can buy more good things with them, and the world's bankers take the dollar more seriously than the real. Dollar "aid" is a little like drug dealing: give the stuff away to potential victims, (a sort of narcotic Marshall plan) and once they're hooked, they're hooked. The bankers who have the most people paying them interest win. For a while, it looked like the dollar was being challenged by the yen. A more serious challenge is now presented by the euro. The stakes are high: billions upon billions in interest, and never-ending, since ultimate debt repayment is not possible within the system. Additionally, as long as more and more new people can be induced to borrow, the burden upon the established users of the particular currency can be eased a bit, and for a while. These are portentous times! In less than a month, we will enter upon a new millennium. (Yes, I know that the third millennium begins with 2001, not 2000, but we won't quibble.) For the ambitious in government, that presents an opportunity which they may not be able to resist; namely, the chance to generate such confusion and distress as to warrant draconian government intervention, justified by the undoubted computer glitches which will arrive with the year 2000. In addition, however, there will be continuing economic crises, which can easily be aggravated by such powerful groups as the IMF, World Bank, or Inter-American development bank. In turn, there can be massive downturns in business activity, resulting in unemployment and unrest in the cities. A new economic plan will be proposed to solve these worldwide problems. Will it be based upon the euro, or the dollar? That question, I suspect, is being decided even as we write these words. Whichever way it goes, it does not bode well for you or me! Money is too important to place in the hands of government, and the system devised by the Founding Fathers effectively prevented that. Recently our ears have been besieged with pious references to the Constitution regarding the Presidential impeachment and trial, but far more important is what the Constitution has to say about money. And no one's talking about that, and no one will. As long as governments are, in effect, owned by bankers, the economy, and human freedom, will spiral inexorably downward. Dr. Paul Hein 6 december 1999 phein@inlink.com SHIFTY (12/5/99; 22:49:33MDT - Msg ID:20377) gold price Just at kitco, gold price had been falling just shot up $3.00 ! My mistake. GO GOLD! Marius (12/5/99; 22:45:02MDT - Msg ID:20376) Thanks to Aristotle, & a thought for Simply Me Aristotle (#20314)I was going to make exactly your point: private property isn't a democracy. I don't mind that you beat me to it--it probably will sink in more if you're the one saying it! One thing which makes this site so nice to visit is common courtesy, and respect for USAGold's "property". Having come from UseNet groups and futures trading forums, I can tell you they're savages by comparison to the folks here. It's disgraceful, and there's no excuse for it.Simply Me (#20316):I got a kick out of your comment about being too paranoid. One quote from a novelist, and one movie line come to mind:"...perfect paranoia equals perfect awareness." (Steven King's Danse Macabre--the author couldn't remember who said it originally.)"The issue isn't whether you're too paranoid." It's whether you're paranoid enough!" (James Cameron's Strange Days)Sleep tight, and don't let the monsters bite! SHIFTY (12/5/99; 22:44:33MDT - Msg ID:20375) gold price Just at kitco, gold price had been falling just shot up $2.00 GO GOLD! Number Six (12/5/99; 22:38:05MDT - Msg ID:20374) Safra... Lamprey - good points. I had also heard rumours that Safra was being investigated for suspected drug money laundering for the Columbians, and there are persistent rumours that the Russian Mafia have made inroads in British banking and - horrors - the LBMA... and as an aside Interpol are taking very seriously how the new Euro currnecy will make it ridiculously easy to launder money as some of the new Euro denominations are VERY large... what a stramash!As an aside I can see Armstrong spilling the beans and entering the witness protection program tote suite... :o) ET (12/5/99; 22:32:49MDT - Msg ID:20373) Gresh Hey Gresh - sorry to hear about your friend. I don't pretend to understand that kind of depression. I'm sure you are not the only one with spouse problems concerning this y2k thing. My wife would probably call me half-baked at the moment. Unfortunately for us, all the outcomes of this y2k thing will probably not occur in January. All you can do is go with what you think is right and hope that everything turns out for the best. Given time, I'm sure your wife will understand that no matter what happens you were attempting to look out for her best interests. Keep the old chin up partner.ET Number Six (12/5/99; 22:28:13MDT - Msg ID:20372) Mr. Gresham Been there, done that... :o)Being single again does have some advantages, one of the primary ones being protection from "she who must be obeyed..."You do realise you will definitely be in the #@%^$#@ when y2k hits us like a freight train? :o)...luck to ya! lamprey_65 (12/5/99; 22:20:58MDT - Msg ID:20371) Safra From what I've read about Safra's murder, seems to me that no one really knows if this was merely a botched robbery or an assination. However, let's consider the facts:1. Supposedly, Monaco has a VERY low crime rate2. Safra's bodyguard was suspiciously absent from the scene...he was supposed to be on duty3. Safra had heavy dealings in Russia and had undoubtedlymade enemies among the Russian Mafia over the past year whenhe pulled out of that country.4. His institution (Republic) has been heavily involved with the gold carry trade5. Republic is being sued by Japanese investors as part of the Armstrong fraud.After considering all of this, I would hazard a guess that it was assassination. I would hazard another guess that it was most probably the Russian Mafia...they are extremely dangerous to cross.Having said this, I think Armstrong will be taking a guess or two himself, wondering how secure his own situation is at this moment.Lamprey Number Six (12/5/99; 22:20:19MDT - Msg ID:20370) Safra... Gandalf - I have heard similar accounts, however there are a few oddities... i.e. he was normally VERY well protected but this time his bodyguard was absent, the guy stabbed was not his bodyguard. His wife pleaded with him to come out on the cellphone, but he was terrified (understandably) of what was on the other side of the door...This from GE too...============================================================ This Armstrong/Safra thing reminds me of my army service (JohnnieReb) Dec 05, 18:43 Strangely, the episode involving gold intrigue, Armstrong's shenanigans and Safra's very highly suspect death remind me of my military service.Life in battalion is in many ways like the financial world. Whenever, a soldier was discharged from the army after finishing his tour of duty, battalion usually found reason to blame the now gone hapless soldier with all the unsolved mysteries: from petty theft to malicious property damage. Those who remained were the innocent "untouchables." For this reason I believe the Gold Cabal will soon cease its price fixing crimes, but in the meantime will "leak" information that Edmund Safra was THE master-mind behind the International Gold Manipulation Operation of recent years. To give the startling news credibility, Martin Armstrong will be given a commuted sentence in exchange for his "confession" that he was the Enforcer for the sinister Safra.Consequently, the slate is wiped clean. No one hurt -- but hapless and defunct Safra takes the rap. All past sins forgiven.The upshot…...? GOLD SOARS. Mr Gresham (12/5/99; 22:15:47MDT - Msg ID:20369) Wife 2K You guys, you guys! You worry about Stranger and Greedspan and PPT and falling POGs. Me, I'm in war zone already. My wife threatens to move out in January, after she sees if Y2k (it's "my" problem, since I'm the one who told her about it) is really so bad. Sort of a Can't Win situation, eh? So what do I do first -- not jump in the car and race around town angrily at 99mph, no -- I come HERE and read the voices of quiet reason, of collegial discourse, of decency and civility and mutual exploration and unraveling mysteries and enjoying the company of like minds. Yes-s-s-!A mutual friend (depressed, divorcing after 17 bad years) did himself in two days ago -- and she's taking it harder than I -- I go up into gratitude for the life we have, she goes other way, into guilt and blame, etc. Oh well. Temporary, I hope.(Sorry for venting personal stuff here -- I know it should be judiciously avoided -- but....)Let's all be grateful, and I have been all along, for the fine minds MK has drawn together, to share difficult times, and easy, should they ever come. Thank you and bless you all for being my oasis tonight. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 21:57:36MDT - Msg ID:20368) Gandalf It sure has, but which story is the spin? What's you scource ??? SteveH (12/5/99; 21:44:50MDT - Msg ID:20367) good read http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/wanniski111897.html ORO (12/5/99; 21:42:51MDT - Msg ID:20366) FOA - Questions & a bit more http://members.xoom.com/_XMCM/Nebucadnezer/importvolume2.gif I have but a few minutes to post.I was trying to catch up with whatever time was available. I will return later at night to read.FOA - All of this started the "new era" of a negative US balance of trade deficit. No ORO, it didn't show up on the official money flows because the US did send the dollars out. BUT!!!,,, they didn't record the trade on the negative side as the """gold loan"""" it really was! I understand this. I understand that the gold obligations were not listed on the debit side of the US books. Specifically avoided was any entry of gold loans or anything containing references to it. Indeed the job of maintaining dollar - gold relationships has been a G7 and Oil country effort, and the bulk of it occurred in London with the participation of US creditors aiming to get something, for the nothing (i.e. dollars) the US so happily issued them in payment. From the days of the London Gold Pool, to the spot markets of the 69-74 period, to the hybrid paper markets from then to 1980, and the mostly paper markets of the early 80s, and now the wholly paper markets ruling since. To make one point about CB behavior, the modern CB is accustomed to controlling the economy through the dictation of short term interest rates. A number of CBs work in concert to attempt getting the right balance. If a currency is to be weak, the interest rates are lowered, using the higher interest rate at the country, who's currency was to strengthen, to produce capital flows from the weakening to the strengthening one. Gold has been maneuvered in this way as well. Low interest rates have caused a carry trade in gold without the CB doing significant lending. The CB offers guarantees of liquidity - a promise to put its gold at risk, not directly putting the gold in harm's way. The issuance of calls, particularly currency settled ones in which the CB is not limited as to quantity, serves as a proxy for lending. But in this "foolproof" plan there is a snag, the abundunce of currency settled gold calls issued can endanger the currency by creating a currency pump - a Buffet style convertible bond with no floor for conversion - that can pump unlimited currency into the market in a death spiral. The Fed is repeatedly rumored, now by more specific people, to have manipulated gold in "emegency situations" using either currency or gold settled gold calls. FOA, do you know if the Fed is indeed issuing these calls, if so, do you have any idea of how much? Order of magnitude? However, there are still these questions from my studies:How large is the Eurodollar market? (I have a current accounts based estimate of 21-24 $trillions in loans outstanding) Does gold play any part in supporting the Eurodollar markets?I have seen the proportions of goods traded for dollars rise tremendously, as the productivity of the emerging market nations has risen but the number of dollars received for their production has not risen in proportion. The $ debt machine has been run by Europe and Japan to shift the cost of maintaining the US onto Emerging Market economies. Whereas the purchasing power of the dollar in the Emerging Markets rose tremendously, the major foreign currencies - those of Europe and Japan, have enjoyed a 90% higher increase in their purchasing power vs. the Emerging Markets - relative to that of the dollar. This allows both Europe and Japan to increase their import volumes even more than the US, without even showing the slightest disadvantage in the balance of payments. I believe that this is the reason that Europe and Japan maintained the value of the dollar as long as they have. Now that the Emerging markets have buckled under this debt and are in the process of repayment, and the carry trades are breaking apart, there is no way to obtain any advantage out of it. FOA, was this an intended occurrence, or was the crissis just one expected by the BIS? I seem to have found some indications that it was intentional.However, The mechanism, like the Gold mechanism is a carry trade, an interest rate driven engine that forces itself to stall, i.e. Long $/short Yen trades have gotten so out of hand, that the slightest rise in Japanese interest rates would crash the system. A simillar situation is close to being reached in the $/Euro trades. FOA, was this the intent of the interest rate maneuvers of the last few years on the part of both Japan and the EU?Finally, a rush of questions to you; how inclusive is the BIS group? Overtures were made to China, Malaysia (included for a fact), and many other Asian nations. Is India included or being pursued? South American countries are being wooed by both the US and the Euro faction. Do you see the mangy US offer of major participation in seigniorage being preferred to the Euro side's "fair money" offer? Are the BIS group members succeeding in recruiting South American participants?A few more charts:http://members.xoom.com/_XMCM/Nebucadnezer/Exportchainquantity.gifhttp://members.xoom.com/_XMCM/Nebucadnezer/Importchainquantity.gifhttp://members.xoom.com/_XMCM/Nebucadnezer/g3802701800417345.gifhttp://members.xoom.com/_XMCM/Nebucadnezer/Quantity trade Deficit1.gif Gandalf the White (12/5/99; 21:34:11MDT - Msg ID:20365) Wait a minute ! My info shows that Mr. Safra was not assinated or killed by violence, but died from smoke from a fire as he would not come out of the room in which he and one of his nurses were hidding from "vandels". He had a cellphone and was told that the police officials were in control of the building and that there was a fire in the top (penthouse) floor, but he would not come out and both he and the nurse died from the smoke. His wife was in another portion of the home and was not harmed. --- Has this been blown out of true proportion?<;-) Sippin (12/5/99; 21:31:42MDT - Msg ID:20364) To Believer Your post makes sense. To ask the Fed to help with the increase in the price of gold is like telling them their only source of putting out a fire is with gasoline. They will resist at all costs and if they give up, they lose everything. They will use any and all the power they got to suppress the POG. The odds are that the "big money" and the FED will come out on top. But odds have a way of sneaking up on everyone and eventually even the heavy favorites lose. Diversification in even the hated financial, fiat ways is the only way to ensure a winning hand. But I would have some PM just in case the fiat pyrimad collapes or has a major meltdown. I agree with the theories that gold is on the way up and will be a force to be reckoned with. It may take some time and patience or it could be very close at hand. No crystal ball here, just reading some great posts. Number Six (12/5/99; 21:24:04MDT - Msg ID:20363) Armstrong... Safra ... Know (knew) too much... There has not been too much discussion on this forum about the Safra hit... like the following poster I believe it is linked to the Armstrong affair ( and a few years back the Robert maxwell murder too - he also "knew too much"...), really, this is just the tip of the iceberg IMHO.This from GE...============================================================" ARMSTRONG TO TURN STATE'S EVIDENCE to save butt (KeyserSoze) Dec 05, 10:55 More than a month ago I posted this:If Martin Armstrong does not suffer an "untimely accident" before he goes to trial and 'spills the beans,' he most certainly will divulge he was an integral part of the international scheme to CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD, relentlessly forcing the price lower and lower. The identity of those who will be implicated by the 'patsy' Armstrong will totally amaze most observers, who heretofore thought there could not be a conspiracy to PRICE FIXING the PRICE OF GOLD. In light of how rapidly the arraignment of 'patsy' Armstrong is proceeding, I feel he will turn state's evidence in a plea bargain to commute his sentence to a two-year minimum in a correctional institution away from mainstay criminals. Literally, this is to save his butt (pun intended). Count on it! Armstrong will sing!When he does, gold will go ballistic to at least $500.-------------------------------------THEN, the very unexpected happens. On Friday December 3rd, it flashed across world headlines: "Billionaire Banker Safra Killed in Monaco Fire -- founder of prestigious Republic National Bank of New York." Police suspect foul play - albeit murder rate in Monaco is said to be about 1 every 10 years." beesting (12/5/99; 21:16:31MDT - Msg ID:20362) The Future Looks Bright Ahead---From Elvis. Doing some simple calculations here is what I come up with. Last week before the BOE auction, the POG was just under $300 per ounce. Now, just before that Kuwait added 79 tonnes and Jordan I believe 45 tonnes, to go with the 25 tonnes auctioned by BOE. Normal mine production worldwide according to the World Gold Council is about 2400 tonnes per year or about 200 tonnes per month.Total amount of Gold going into the market in the last 3-4 weeks about 349 tonnes. Normal consumption of Gold, again according to The World Gold Council, 3600-4000 tonnes per year or about 300-340 tonnes per month.That means currently(if the markets are truly supply and demand driven) Gold inventories on all the markets should start to dry up towards the end of this December. The BOE and LBMA some-how coaxed Jordan and Kuwait to part with thier Gold last month,unless LBMA can find another source soon the squeeze should start the end of Dec."Warning to all Gold holders and Goldhearts" if you see a dapper man with derby hat holding it in his hand who has a strong English type accent and a badge that says BOE on it,watch your Gold close-ly...He may try his best to talk you out of it.......beesting. Sippin (12/5/99; 21:12:25MDT - Msg ID:20361) What will the big money do? Thanks ET, It seems you may have something with your post. Of all the different angles on the future outcome of gold, I find the 2000 rollover question particularly interesting. With all the information I have looked at about problems with the Y2K issue, it is very hard to decipher if there is going to be something to it. But my opinion is that there is enough there to cause at least some concern for the financial aspects to it. I believe it would be incredible for the "big money" to just scoff at the possibilities with so much at stake. This angle looks like a bullseye to me and I appreciate the input. Number Six (12/5/99; 21:09:34MDT - Msg ID:20360) Come on people get a grip! "but let's face facts, he hasn't been right on the callfor Gold of $30,000.00, that's all Stranger was sayingand many I would say most here agree with him."Can we PUHLEEZE put this baby to rest. We have gone around the houses with this one many times and some people STILL DON'T GET IT :o)...The $30,000 figure mentioned was as a result of a "think tank" study group, we don't know the full details of their tasked parameters, and it is obvious that this $30,000 figure is at some indeterminable point ***in the future***, and will occur ONLY after certain factors have materialised i.e. and I'm guessing, the failure of LBMA/COMEX paper trading, oil priced in Euros, possible hyper-inflation in the USA... to name just three.It will only occur "after the cats have been herded!!!"...At NO TIME did FOA intimate that $30,000 was imminent as some folks keep (disingenuously if they had READ his/her posts properly) insinuating... sheesh!It is really getting VERY OLD to keep attacking FOA and ANOTHER like this, FOA in particular has explained this concept several times...I'd like to see The Stranger back too, maybe he'd had one or two beers I don't know, we all make mistakes... Michael, maybe you could reconsider a probationary period?Later,Andy The Believer (12/5/99; 21:07:41MDT - Msg ID:20359) the Sheeple-the Fed My friends, After reading and digesting the posts of the lastfew days I feel I must comment. All of the problems people face in trying to buildsecurity and wealth boil down to one simple fact...The Fedral Reserve System OWNS the United States ofAmerica. Few among the public masses understand this. All ofthe gold investors reading this forum must have realized this long ago. There is no discussion that needs to take place.This is a simple fact. Yet we let it go on. And waste our time watching thePOG,the DOW,the NASDAQ et all. Do we watch praying they will stumble and we willgain? (Y2K) Do we wait for the bubble to burst and hope we willgain? (debt) Tell me why do we sit and wait for "them" to failif we are a free people? There is no value in the fiat dollar, we all know it. Yet we sit'saddly,quietly,being good boys and girls,buying our gold.Praying "they" won't just take it away! All the figures, charts,commentary,genius view pointsetc. are worth nothing. As long as the Fed is acceptedas the controling body of our (and the worlds) economy. When will we get down to reality and realize all ourwork'sweat, and saving can be taken away at a momentsnotice when "they" feel they might be loosing the game? It is long past time for the educated public to standup and take control of our country once again. What say you, knights and ladies of the golden table? Peter Asher (12/5/99; 21:06:02MDT - Msg ID:20358) ET, spread graph That's quite a picture! A range of 62 to 110 over six months, then from 100 to 180 in two days. Some players are shifting gears!! NewGold (12/5/99; 20:53:38MDT - Msg ID:20357) on The Stranger I think the concept of a "clean" or no name calling forumthat USA Gold has articulated is worthy so that the forum would be "open" to ideas and posters would not be"chased off" from expressing those ideas, however Ithink equally important is the concept that a theory or prediction needs to be "scientifially" proven or debated. That is to say that a prediction or theory must be challenged and debated from all sides in order to be proven "sound" or credible. I believe that is how a forum gains "credibility"by debating vigourously each theory, and not by censorshipall that accomplishes, is to make the entire forum much less"credible" and much less visited.I don't believe Strangers post rose anywhere near thelevel of namecalling that FOA himself admitted to and apologised for, and he seems like an older tough guywho's been around and has heard much worse, the proofis he has not been discouranged from posting, on the contrary, I think Stranger's post made him come back.Tha isn't to say that he was right on the $30,000.00 Gold call last month, but that is the point, the free exchange of ideas, uncensored, is what gives any forum "credibility".I think that FOA is Another, and others, and I also think that he is really "Lyndon LaRouche", his writing style etcare very similar. I used to watch LaRouche on TV,onhis own paid broadcasts, many years ago and enjoyed his courage and ideas, I was not always in agreement, but hewas sure intriguing and revealing. Yes I do enjoy readinghim, but let's face facts, he hasn't been right on the callfor Gold of $30,000.00, that's all Stranger was sayingand many I would say most here agree with him.Good night. tedw (12/5/99; 20:45:07MDT - Msg ID:20356) Y2k http://www.usa.gold Iwalked around the Wal-mart store in the part of Oregon where I live today and noticed some subtle shortages. The auto supply section sells 5 gallon plastic containers for gasoline and they were all out, even though they had just got a shipment. Also I noticed the small economy size propane fuel cylinders for camping stoves.lanterns, and small heaters were just about sold out, even though there are usually at least a hundred on the shelf.There is a nearby storehouse that is selling emergency supplies and the owner is telling me that they cant keep stuff on the shelves. I bought her last kerosene heater/cooker today.The following is from an anonymous LAPD officer."An information memorandum was circulated to all ranks late last year which seems to be a prelude to others on the subject. It advised that Y2k is a problem of unknown scope and dimension, could cause major disruption,and is not easily correctible. "In the last 12 months LAPD strength has been built up to 9700. Typical strength is about 8000. ET (12/5/99; 20:36:47MDT - Msg ID:20355) TED spread http://www.spreadscope.com/Graphs/TB1299IEU1299ITBEU.html Thanks to "nobody" over at Yourdon's for bringing this to my attention. My silver trading buddy calls this the "TSHTF" indicator. For those unfamiliar, the TED spread is a popular futures trading spread which plots the price of T-Bills to the price of Eurodollars. Normally the difference between these instruments is slight and doesn't vary much but in times of crisis traders will bid up the T-Bills in a flight to quality and dump the Eurodollars. Hence when you see the chart move this fast to the upside (the spread is increasing), you know that big money is moving. It should be interesting to keep our eye on this chart the next few weeks as we approach the year end rollover. Of course this could also be one of those signs we've been watching for concerning the dollar and it's reserve status. Looks like things are heating up!ET Blue Sky (12/5/99; 19:38:36MDT - Msg ID:20354) Gold Sheeple I've not been able to catch up with all the prolific posting here, so, hope I'm not too far off. I truly hope some have not said they were led into buying gold by any posters here. We've had the freedom of choice to buy or not. I have chosen to buy. I now enjoy what I have( waiting for the Helvitas and Confederatos to arrive). Please return to the cordiality of the round table. Thanks for the novelette to read on the road(3 days of posting printed). Blue Sky to all Peter Asher (12/5/99; 19:35:17MDT - Msg ID:20353) Canuck, AEL et/al Censorship and Rules Censorship is when the Government says no-one can produce anything with certain words or ideas in it. Rules are when an establishment says that it will not allow the production of whatever, on it's premises. The former is suppression of a basic human right. The latter is an exercise in the right of freedom belonging to the owner of the establishment. There is a profound difference between these two things. Please, everyone, try and focus here. Canuck (12/5/99; 19:03:45MDT - Msg ID:20352) AEL msg #20302 Just read the above and I offer a suggestion. If I may, I suggest that our honorable forum may be in need of a "censorship" board. I suggest we vote on electing a group of nine members who may then 'remove' offending posts. Perhaps then Sir MK, would then have final say. I fear Michael cannot re-instate The Stranger because of the position he has taken (for which he has the right). Opinion,IHMO, seems to favour Stranger's reinstatement and I believethis may have placed our host between a rock and a hard place. canamami (12/5/99; 18:42:28MDT - Msg ID:20351) Reply to Lafisrap - post#20324 Lafisrap,Thanx for your reply. Thinking about gold and its role is the ultimate mental challenge.Tout le monde, it's been a turbulent and interesting weekend. Peut-etre adieu, peut-etre au revoir - on va voir et decider. Canuck (12/5/99; 18:38:30MDT - Msg ID:20350) (No Subject) From The Stranger,"The point is, gold is inherently a short term investment for which timing is ABSOLUTELY ALL THAT MATTERS. Furthermore, I submit that people who hold gold year in and year out in quantities which are disproportionate to their other investments are squandering any opportunity of ever achieving wealth in their lifetime." I have 2 comments;a) Mr. Stranger is/was a direct speaking person that walked a fine line and it has ultimately cost him his posting priviledges butb) Anyone that disagrees with his statement above doesn't want full bang for his buck.In speaking of investment maximizing strategy Stranger's comment is so absolutely accurate I cannot find any fault with it. The only possible grey area is gold being a shortterm investment. The term short-term/long term/speculate is a merely a 'definition' game in itself. What time frame constitutes short term versus long term? Furthermore, IMHO, buying gold is an investment, when gold reaches is maximumbuying power, are you going to hold it ? We often rant and rave that the stock markets have peaked and they cannot carry this curve any longer, it has reached its maximum. Gold will do the same, therefore the timing of purchasing and the timing of selling is ABSOLUTELY ALL THAT MATTERS.I hope no one here is buying gold to watch it go down and when it peaks, whether that be in the short term or in the long term I will sell because I don't see the point of watching it go down. I will miss The Stranger, his posts were always razor sharp,straight to the point. canamami (12/5/99; 18:36:10MDT - Msg ID:20349) Reply to FOA - post # 20347 FOA,Thank you for the very detailed response, which has provided me with what I believe is a much clearer understanding of your hypothesis. I would like to ask further questions, but you have indicated you are leaving, and my own demands preclude further discussion. Thank you once more. Journeyman (12/5/99; 17:42:55MDT - Msg ID:20348) "The rumors of my death have been much exaggerated." -Gold, Dec. 1999 .@Canamami, SteveH, Aristotle, all . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .The "bankers that be" did pretty much kill the use of gold, particularly in many "modern industrialized media-ized" countries like the USA, and even to a large extent, in their own macro economic international finance trade game, replacing gold with all manner of paper and electronic derivatives and derivatives of derivatives, etc. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .And the results are beginning to catch up with all of us. In fact, the results in the last few years have caused even the banker/government cliques themselves many a mid-day change in undergarments. It's these unscheduled undershorts changes that should tell you that (a tip 'o the hat to Samuel Clemens) rumors of gold's demise have been greatly exaggerated, quotes to follow a bit later. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .The bank/government establishment tried to kill gold for the simple reason that when gold and paper money bearing the same face value circulate at the same time, any creative printing of extra paper unbacked by gold causes the paper bills to rapidly lose value relative to the gold. When a shopkeeper says he'll accept either a $20.00 gold piece or, say $25.00 in paper money for the same purchase, even a complete sheeple figures out he should quickly unload the paper bills. Thus when gold and paper money circulate at the same time, gold acts as a highly visible barometer, keeping the money manufacturers relatively honest. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .This is bad for the money manufacturers because of the seigniorage (profit) they make from printing those extra unbacked paper bills, which today amounts to about $.95 per $1.00 bill or about 1900% profit (proportionately more on $5, $10, etc..) This seigniorage goes to the deceptively named "Federal Reserve," actually a worldwide agglomeration of private banking interests. To keep their little family business going, the money manufacturers must get gold out of the picture, keep it's barometric function hidden as much as possible. (See MID: 16513, in USA GOLD archives, October 15, 1999 for a more complete presentation of this.) This has worked fairly well for awhile in the "modern industrialized mediaized" world. It didn't work in China, Thailand, Hong Kong, and particularly it didn't work with Indians, who alone buy 30% of the world's gold production every year. You may have noticed that this list of people who don't think gold is dead include well over half the world's population. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .But when the barometer's away, the financial cats will play. In every case in history where gold was abbrogated, massive depreciation of the substitute paper currency followed, much like massive killing of citizens follows gun confiscation. The world economy has only been separated from gold for a maximum of about 67 years, measuring from 1933, or 29 years, measuring from the "closing of the gold window" in 1971. I know what you're thinking: "Gold's been dead for at least 29 years, much too long for resurrection." . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .In the classic inflation in 1790s France, it took ten years and much misery before the mistake was corrected. And that was only one country and it had gold and silver circulating right along with its paper money to help speed the correction. The reason mankind hasn't corrected the situation just yet is that it's now world wide, and the gold barometer has been fairly effectively supressed so the results of paper/megabyte excess money creation caused depreciation aren't quite as obvious. BUT the classic results are occuring, are screwing nearly everyone, and scaring everyone else, including the power's that be: . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . - "This is the biggest financial challenge facing the world in the last half-century." -Bill Clinton to CFR [Council on Foreign Relations, THE NWO folks], MSNBC, 14 Sep 1998, ~12:04:47 PM EDT . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . It's certainly the worst international monetary crisis since the founding of the system, the Bretton Woods [paper money] system in 1944. And if we look around the world at Asia, and obviously at Russia, at most of the emerging markets now -- South Africa, parts of Latin America and Mexico -- you really see signs of danger. And I know that the authorities in Washington are most concerned about this spread, and properly so -- because it seems to be happening." -Roger Altman, former Deputy Secretary of Treasury, CNBC, 14 Aug 1998, ~7:37:21 AM EDT . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . *// Mr. [Albert] Friedberg [famed Austrian economist, currency specialist and head of Canada's Friedberg Mercantile Group] points to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as the fundamental cause of the currency debacle. He notes that since the early 1990s, the Fed has backed a credit expansion policy that it has exported abroad. He also predicts that "the crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia, Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the United States." -TORONTO GLOBE AND MAIL (January 10, 1998) <http://www.theglobeandmail. com/docs/news/19980110/ROBColumn/RCORC.html> [NEXIALIST N+E+W+S reprise] . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . ~"It is just not credible to believe the United States can continue to remain an oasis of prosperity in a world undergoing increasing levels of economic stress." -Alan Greenspan . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .- The World Bank reports that [as a result of the Asian currency crisis] the number of poor in Asia (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines) may double to 90 million over the next three years, and there is a desperate need to reduce the prices of basic supplies [food, etc.]. -NWI, 30 Sep 1998, ~5:51:13 PM EDT. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .- The [Indonesian] people are angry about an inflation rate that's hit 40% a month. Some basics are rising even faster: Gasoline has soared 70% the past two weeks; rice has doubled in the same period. "Who can afford to live, let alone eat, here anymore?" said Mozes, a 43-year [old?] accountant. -"Economic despair turns peaceful protests violent" by James Cox, USA TODAY, FRI./SAT./SUN., MAY 15-17, 1998, COVER STORY, pg. 1. - There's now a shortage of imported drugs in Indonesia because foreign drug companies won't extend credit to Indonesian hospitals and doctors. As a result of this and other side-effects of the Asian economic crisis, the cost of many medical procedures has risen by 500%. Many Indonesians can't afford this, and some are paying with their lives. -NWI, 20 Feb 1998, ~1:55:50 PM EST. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .-Russian inflation is 67% this month, which makes it almost impossible for average Russians to survive. 100,000 Russians in Moscow will lose their jobs in the next two months, and that's just in the financial sector alone. -NBC Evening News, 3 Oct 1998, ~6:36:11 PM EDT . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .- Government price hikes sparked a week of riots and demonstrations throughout Yemen that left more than 50 people dead in June, reports Faysal Makram in the Saudi-owned _Al-Hayat_ of London. -WORLD PRESS REVIEW, SEPTEMBER 1998, p. 24. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .- Ecuador devalued it's currency today. -CNBC, 14 Sep 1998, ~4:54:32 PM EDT. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .- Riots break out against the results of Ecuadorian Government financial reforms. -CNNI, 3 Oct 1998, ~1:51:01 PM EDT. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .etc. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .It's fairly clear that things are no longer satisfactory, even for the money manufacturers -- that's the basis for comments, the latest from retiring IMF head Camdessus, that the world needs a "new financial archetecture." At the same time, such authorities as Camdessus also admit this will be "difficult." I interpret that as "just about impossible." The most difficult way is to a world currency, the other is to some return to gold as a barometer, which is much simpler, makes sense and is the path predicted by Nobelist Robert Mundel. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ .It's possible, that the "new paradigm" may stick -- there are, rarely, genuine revolutions afterall. But, as Damon Runyon wrote, "The race doesn't always go to the swift nor the battle to the strong -- but that's the way to bet." If you're betting on fiat vs. gold, you're betting against a thousand years of history. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ FOA (12/5/99; 17:38:01MDT - Msg ID:20347) Reply canamami (12/5/99; 11:54:47MDT - Msg ID:20321)Reply to FOA - post# 20311FOA,-------------Thank you for your detailed reply. Would the manipulation not have been prior to August 1971, when the US printed dollars alegedly backed by gold, but which weren't backed by gold. Once the bluff was called in August 1971, what manipulation occurred after that date? The rest of the worldcould have just "eaten" their loss, just as creditors always do when a debtor goes bankrupt, and accepted no more US dollars as settlement. That didn't happen. The question being: Why not?, and why should it be different now?----------------Canamami, The world did begin to walk from the dollar! It plunged and remained on a downtrend for several years! The US knew their option was to raise gold prices prior to 71 (just as I offered in the last post). But oil was the major problem link! Every oil person in the US knew we were running out of local reserves at the old "gold backed" dollar price. All the Middle East had to do was wait us out as they were happy to out produce and supply us in exchange for "real dollar backed gold". You see, oil was and is the real driver of all economic production. We could have raised the dollar price of gold to settle our accounts but that would not have raised the local oil price enough to make deep reserves available. Yes the dollar would have depreciated somewhat and foreign oil would have went up, but not enough. The need for more local reserves and the higher dollar prices that could make them available is what drove the 71 gold closure. They had us and we had them. Without another functioning reserve currency system in place, our modern world would have shut down to a level of pure physical commodity trade. Perhaps worse than the 1929 era. With every other country about to stop trade for dollars, it was the Oil group that literally saved the current system by backing our now fiat dollar with oil. This "black gold backing" took the form of accepting settlement of all world oil trade in dollars. And boy, did the world ever send them dollars! No body was going to walk from dollar trade as long as they had to buy their oil with it. It was that simple. Don't think for a minute that people weren't running for gold then, either. Had the US, BIS and IMF not sold some gold into the demand the dollar exchange rate for bullion would have hit $3,000 or $4,000, easy! And that was back then, not now. Even then the gold rise was a controlled burn to show people that they couldn't escape from all these dollars into gold. It would gun the price through the roof long before the exchange was complete. Why not just write the dollar holdings off, you ask? Hell most of the average trading partners didn't hold much gold! That was what holding the dollar was for. They would have completely wrecked their entire local economic / money system if they did walk. As long as gold could remain in some form of ratio to oil )for conversion purposes), the dollar settlement was assured. At least until another reserve system could come along. It took the US 50 years to establish a reserve currency, so if it took the "Old World" ten years that was not long to hold gold at static dollar prices. Well, it took longer but so what? In the scope of things the transition to free market gold and Euros was the only choice. Hence the 20 year time lag that gold has gone nowhere. Yet, gold was being acquired through out this time. And it will be repriced in proportion to that time span. A bunch of years ago, when the Euro looked to be late (very late), the drive to free up private gold holdings started. Yes, gold was being recycled by oil, just as the dollars were recycled. But, there was a physical limit to how much could be moved. For the last several years, it's been imperative to keep the price of gold down or it would kill the system. The US / IMF faction did all they could to help. But, understand this,,,,,,they never expected the Euro to work and fully well expected oil to run back into the dollar when it failed to be born! My god, when the Euro was formed in the first few weeks, we almost had people talking about shredding documents and leaving town,,,,the game is over! Do you remember the old Hunt brothers saying about an ounce of silver was worth a barrel of oil? Well I have news for you, it was rumoured long before that that a gram of gold was worth a barrel of oil. Forget the price of gold! Forget the price of oil! If a barrel of oil flows one way gold (or contract equivalent) must move the opposite until some ratio is reached. (oro understood this and posted it). They never flow in the same direction. When gold flow is disrupted, as in the mid and late 70s, oil prices rise! When gold is liquid, oil prices fall. From the beginning of this year, after the Euro was born, gold flow has slowed and oil is up. Another was telling me over and over that gold was being cut off then. Yet, we read gold expert after gold expert, telling us that the CBs were selling it all. Next, the Washington Agreement was announced and these same people are on the wire telling everyone the CBs are lying,,,,, "They are still going to sell it all"! I can't wait till the ECB starts buying official gold from others using dollars! With this job off the BIS back sense the Euro was born, it's been in the ECBs court to support gold under $280. They didn't this summer (we took a lot of heat because they let it fall to $250), because they were putting together the Agreement for press, I guess. When the next official move starts, I suspect the gold experts will be saying,,,,,,,"they are only buying it to sell it" Ha Ha!! Oh well. Truly, the Washington Agreement is "the" confirmation that the currency war is in progress. The LBMA has been left "hung out to dry" as they scramble to gather any and all gold political favours can muster. We can expect a flurry of paper gold, sold into every taker until something else breaks and then the rush up. After that, another truck load of paper. All the while the market credibility slowly wanes. Forcing physical gold trade and oil settlement into Europe. Without a functioning "dollar / paper gold marketplace, gold will gravitate to the oil price until "gram parity" is reached. I expect that long before we reach parity, physical gold trading will outprice the paper market. Confirmation of the "visible" gold bull market, that everyone needs so badly, will appear when London closes for good. For all "Bullion Boys",,,,,,, Bullion Men,,,,,, for us old guys, (and ladies) (my wife included);;; we are on the road!For all paper traders, good luck timing the motives, needs and thoughts of Political power brokers. (smile)I have said enough for a while,,,,,,thanks for all your time and thought energy,,,,,,,,FOA FOA (12/5/99; 17:33:42MDT - Msg ID:20346) Comment Hipplebeck (12/5/99; 6:24:30MDT - Msg ID:20292)oil and goldMy opinion is that there is far more oil money being spent on weapons than there is on gold. After all, what good is having a bunch of gold if you cannot defend yourself from someone taking it away from you. Hello Hipplebeck,Armies take more than just gold. Every physical thing is in contention. Perhaps they can't afford anything else, either? What about all the paper dollars or bank dollar accounts? With the threat of ending your life most will withdraw that too and offer it up! So, let's not keep any money. Do you see where this line of reasoning is going? Truly, people buy gold as an asset that stands right along with all their other things. Buying weapons never stopped anyone from buying assets. FOA Peter Asher (12/5/99; 17:10:43MDT - Msg ID:20345) CB2 Sometimes it helps to back up and look at things simplistically to keep a perspective handle on it.A currency is as good as the economic machine that it draws upon. What's so confusing now is that people in other economies are using US dollars as an ersatz currency in their own lands. Trading other people's paper promises, as a paper promise.It seems that the attempt to QUANTIFY all this, is what drives us up the wall. But do we even have to. It seems to me at this moment of unpredictability, the best course of action is to purchase any needs and wants where best afforded and store any reserve value in gold. Potential profits foregone are nothing compared to loss of wealth created. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 17:00:12MDT - Msg ID:20344) Double Duty A Dollar Saved is a Dollar Spent! Dragonfly's comments regarding the Government love affair with 401-K, brings me back to my favorite topic of "Wealth Transfer." It appears that in our brave new economic paradigm of negative savings, that working capital needs can be satisfied by cooperate bonds and IPO's sufficiently to not need a lot of loans backed by fractionalized savings.One must admire the brilliance of the plan/scheme. Many affluent consumers really do want to save some of their earnings. So there has come to be a way in which those peoples earnings can become savings to them but actually spending as regards the economy, Each dollar that enters the Stock Market is at once a dollar's (Perceived) savings to the stock purchaser, and a dollar's worth of spending money to the stock seller.This is how the Goldilocks economy is created. Many earned dollars are doing double duty. They satisfy savings needs on one hand, while creating spending flows on the other. Simultaneously the "Can't lose" investment climate creates a marketplace for selling equity risk/reward to money that would otherwise have sought debt instruments. Even a bond is only an equity until it matures.Mathematically the equation has a lie in it. When the excesses of false quantities exceed their working limits this will contract. Deflate or burst? That is the big question. CoBra(too) (12/5/99; 16:10:13MDT - Msg ID:20343) @P..A - re worthless $ - My first reply would have been - and so's every other Fiat Currency - though it's a question of concept!, which I've not been able to circumvent at a dinner party last night with good friends, including an 80 y's plus veteran of several European currency devastating devaluations in that time frame. His claim was that holding $$$ saved him from bankruptcy a couple of times and proof still is that every (former)eastern block country including good old Russia is accepting only $-currency (note currency)as "real money" as I found true at visiting St. Petersburg (called Leningrad inbetween). Not only the international Hotels, but even the tour guides and taxis preferred the stuff (-Ok, vs Rubles you'd say). A concept AG is still relying upon, or better has to expand to in order to prevent collapse, even disregarding the fact that this same concept held true for other (fiat? - not ever for so long)currencies, only baacked on seignorage, hegemony and trust - in go(l)d we trust), before the broke $-arization became the global reserve asset scheme (TC-Ass{et}s are tempting). Right - everyone prefers a currency, appreciating vis a vis the homely -paper (of paupers, which may be the destiny of the US $ as it was the destiny of the Pound Sterling before), as long as the political system, or the economy gained enough credit to support the concept of paper credit. I've at least learned, that the lifelong European experiencein trusting the 'relative' value of the US $ goes a long way to question the other 'experience' of creating a 'virtual' new contract "value" , after experiencing a hard (won) corecurrency block (DM, ATS, NFL ... SFR), now softened by LIT, PTA's FFR's ... - A message some regard as a licence to abandon hard won stability - in politics and economy! - so the concept of a federation of adverse nations, without the concept of a mutual agreeable defense plan -outside of US preeminent NATO- is maybe dee(oo)med to fail.In any case - let's watch this game`unfold together- rigged or not - that is only a question of conception of wether you're on the fiat side or on to reality - So, to wrap it up P.A. - For most of Europeans -East or West- the US $ is still the most stable currency (except DM/SFR)- Can you believe the concept after losing about 95% of buying power since the mid 50's. Even history seems to become "virtual" in this day and age of "new" paradigms. Thank you for letting me raamle and venting - Best from Krampus & Nikolo - CB2 ET (12/5/99; 15:47:01MDT - Msg ID:20342) dragonfly Hey dragonfly - I'm with Peter on using the maul. I only use thewedges on really big pieces. I keep checking every morning for thatnew hydraulic splitter that Santa will no doubt bring but so far Ihaven't seen it. I think my wife thinks I might start getting soft.Yeah - you'll enjoy the website. Since you mentioned the Eisenhowerera you might be particularly interested in Mises book "OmnipotentGovernment - The Rise of the Total State and Total War". He pennedthis classic during WWII as he described where this mindset thatproduced these wars originated. It is an interesting history ofEurope which you will read nowhere else. Germany's history from 1860on has been rewritten so many times it is difficult today tounderstand how such a great people could have taken the road theytook. Mises clearly explains what happened but further explains howit could happen again. The common notion that Hitler rose to powerbecause of the demanding WWI war reparations is total bunk as far asMises was concerned. It's an interesting read.If you haven't read "Human Action", move it to the top of your to-dolist. It is truly the economic bible of our time. The originaledition is currently being reproduced in it's entirety. It is the50th anniversary of its publication.Well, no more log splitting for me as I have 4 cords cut, split andseasoned. We had our first snow today so I've fired up the woodstoves, broken out the chili and I'm making some cornbread. Off toMichigan tomorrow, brrr!ET canamami (12/5/99; 15:44:56MDT - Msg ID:20341) Reply to Beesting -#20305 Beesting, That was a very good point. Gold possesses a sentimental value beyond the monetary. I guess that's why De Beers and the diamond industry engaged in massive advertising to invest diamonds with a similar character. beesting (12/5/99; 15:24:40MDT - Msg ID:20340) The Stranger! To Who it May Concern! Many here do not remember it was exactly these same type of verbal attacks on ANOTHER a former frequent poster, which caused him to stop posting on Kitco and eventually here.Sir,ANOTHER posting his "THOUGHTS ONLY" was "THE" most respectful poster I have seen on the internet,and did not deserve verbal abuse by disgruntled Americans,who may not know how,because of their own upbringing,to show proper respect for others on an International level.ANOTHER/FOA IMHO along with USAGOLD have been the founding fathers of this forum!!.....on with the Gold dicussion.......beesting. canamami (12/5/99; 15:24:30MDT - Msg ID:20339) Reply to Farfel re GATA Farfel,I've been following GATA's actions, and I think they are appropriate. This is not merely a legal battle, it involves serious political and PR matters also. Some of Bill Murphy's posts also made reference to Freedom of Information requests, as well as efforts made to assess the governing statute. A long time ago, I posted re advisable approaches to be used by GATA. At heart this is public law litigation cum a political battle. I don't believe a private class action lawsuit is the way to go, but I could be wrong and US lawyers would have to assess the situation. In short, GATA's approach seems okay to me. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 15:18:21MDT - Msg ID:20338) cananami, Hipplebeck Canamami ---Thank you, SirHipplebeck #20336 was to you. Netking (12/5/99; 15:17:42MDT - Msg ID:20337) POG & Twice Discipled. Mr Twice Discipled(20330) - Agreed & seconded. All - Where do you we see the bottom in the short term for the POG? My own thoughts point toward about another $5.00-$7.00 down before this retracement is complete. Others are pointing toward a return(a short term one) towards the levels we saw in September before we resume an upward manifestation again. The spot market opened strong in Australasia, but with weakness Oil & Platinum & with current traders committments as they are this week may be more of the same. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 15:15:02MDT - Msg ID:20336) (No Subject) Yes, I too thought that the Saudis were big customers for those F-whatevers; you know, those cute little airplanes with the afterburners and weapon's racks Farfel (12/5/99; 15:13:04MDT - Msg ID:20335) Re: GATA: This is Getting REALLY Old.... Le Metropole members, Midas du Metropole has served commentary at The James Joyce Table entitled, "THE FED - THE FED - THE FED." "All week I heard just one thing - the Federal Reserve of the United States of America is knocking the crap out of the gold market. Early in the week those utterances came to me in whispers from A source - a bullion dealer. By the end of the week, 4 highly credible sources told me the same thing. This is truly unjust and an outrage and GATA is going to do something about it. It is time to take the battle to them. Hit them hard and where it can do some good and actually turn the tide on this misuse of power. GATA's action plan will be laid out to you very shortly. You will be integrated into the plan and it won't take you more than 10 minutes of your time if you would like to help." All the best, Bill Murphy Le Patron www.LeMetropoleCafe.com -------------As much as I wish the best for Murphy and Powell regarding their great gold crusade, a point has been reached where they either sh_t or get off the pot!Either they formally file litigation tomorrow or they don't.But every time they announce some special action plan and that plan does not entail formal litigation, then it seems they undermine their cause.In its original incarnation, GATA was supposed to hire hot shot attorneys and sue various bullion banks for malfeasance. Anything less that that is simply "verbal masturbation." If the issue is simply that GATA cannot raise sufficient monies for hiring attorneys (and it seems to me that if the case had real compelling merits, they could find attorneys on a contingency fee basis anyway), then acknowledge the fact, fold the tent, and return monies raised to date to the various GATA contributors.Yet, at this late point in time, every time GATA announces these special actions in lieu of formal litigation, then it simply validates its detractors' assertions with respect to its complete irrelevance.ThanksF* canamami (12/5/99; 15:12:28MDT - Msg ID:20334) Reply to Peter asher - #20332 Peter,That was an excellent distinction and clarification. Obviously, neither the dollar nor gold is dead or worthless. The discussion turns on future contingencies, and which result is more likely. Hipplebeck (12/5/99; 15:06:56MDT - Msg ID:20333) to Aristotle <<Along your line of thinking, wouldn't there be nobody willing to sell them weapons because, after all, everybody else would bea potential aggressor? >>What???? The US not willing to sell weapons? We don't arm the world in some perverted play to balance and play everyone against each other? Are you joking?<<When you are too small to defend yourself against a whole playground of bullies, why waste significant effort entertaining afarce of self defense? It would be much more prudent to master the diplomatic arts and let each bully recognize that it is in hisbest interest to protect you from the other bullies. As the only fuel station in town, it wouldn't be too difficult to find somethingof common interest to all the bullies with which to build a diplomatic base and be too important to let fall into "enemy" hands.Just like Switzerland playing banker to the world, the Middle East plays the important role of fuel tank for the world.>> Surely, you're putting me on. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 15:00:42MDT - Msg ID:20332) The Worthless Dollar As of this afternoon, one dollar is worth 10 oz. Of top round on sale, 4 oz. Of roast beef, 4/10 of a gallon of regular, but it won't get you into the movie theater. The fact is that the Dollar is POTENTIALLY worthless. This can not be said about Gold.Gold has been discounted for lack of Inflation, discounted by the sale of paper contracts, discounted for failing to go up due to that, discounted for every half truth and distorted logic that anyone can come up with. Maybe there are a few more gold stashes that can be bullied or connived into entering the supply lines, but the amount IS finite.This is a pendulum swing that is reaching the end of a cycle. The further it goes on one momentum, the further and faster it will go in the other direction. Cananami is right about needing a significant rise in demand to turn things around. That will come, the potential gold demand is mostly untapped at this moment. If one tenth of one percent of the money chasing equities went after Gold, it would probably blow right through the historic high.The Washington agreement changed nothing quantitatively at that moment, it was a change in policy which will, and already has, caused quantitative shifts in supply and demand. That is why I called it a "News driven rally" The effects of the agreement have only begun to affect the balance.Going back to my first paragraph: It would enhance clarity and understanding to call the Dollar "Potentially worthless", for to say it is worthless in the present moment is false, and therefore diminishes the effect of the message. beesting (12/5/99; 14:58:29MDT - Msg ID:20331) More on Edmund Safra(From SUGOI)Gold-Eagle Dec.5,1999. http://www.idrel.com.lb/idrel/shufimafi/archives/docs/ft990511.htm Former owner or Republic National Bank, recently murdered in Manaco Excerpts:So it was all the more surprising last year when Republic became one of the biggest casualties of the RUSSIAN debt default, and took a loss of 191 million and a further 97 million to cover debt restruction that included shutting its prime brokerage unit which dealt with HEDGE FUNDS.(LTCM???)More on Republic National Bank at:http://www.rnb.com/......beesting. Twice Discipled (12/5/99; 14:47:20MDT - Msg ID:20330) MK Supported ... For those who just won't let it die ...I wasn't going to get into this discussion, but since the topic continues to be hashed. I read all of Stranger's post before it was deleted. As I read it the first thing that came to mind mind was "this guy is being so blantantly disrespectful and rude he is trying to get kicked off of the forum." In other words, I think the Stranger knew he was going too far with the name calling and accusations. I have gained some insight from his posts, but that doesn't excuse what I see as his blatant attempt to taunt both MK and FOA.I agee with Aristotle.Please continue the GOLD discussions. Leigh (12/5/99; 14:37:55MDT - Msg ID:20329) Question for FOA Dear FOA: Please, what did you mean last night when you said, "[The leaders] won't be able to ship [gold] overseas (foreign exchange controls) so you can bet they will want a good free dealer market for physical 'right here in the good old USA for the benefit of the voting citizens'." Does that mean gold won't be allowed to cross national borders? What about gold owners who travel or move overseas? Thank you! Ray Patten (12/5/99; 14:30:16MDT - Msg ID:20328) It looks like cash is finally flowing out of the banks. I have been watching the currency in circulation figures for over a year. There has been no unusual behavior until November. As of the latest reporting week the currency total is up to $580.4 billion, up $23.4 billion from the previous month. That's up 4.2%. The similar period last year saw currency go up $8.7 billion to $506.9 billion, a 1.7% increase. This past month the totals have been increasing every week. The last one was up over $7 billion.This number can be found in Friday's Wall Street Journal in the back part of section C. It is part of the weekly money supply column. It would be great if a GOLDEN KNIGHT or LADY who lives on the East Coast could report this total to us on this wonderful FORUM first thing Friday morning after he or she reads the Journal.It seems that people have a hard time anticipating something too far into the future, so I think that the currency in circulation will go up weekly and then after Christmas everyone will get serious about Y2K. By the following Wednesday the banks will be cleaned out of cash and the store shelves will be empty of canned goods.Got cash? Got GOLD? Don't wait too long. Canuck Gold (12/5/99; 14:27:20MDT - Msg ID:20327) AEL (12/5/99; 9:14:38MDT - Msg ID:20302) In the interest of fairness, if anyone wants to see The Stranger's last offensive post before MK cut him off, send me an eMail at dransfpa@rev.gov.on.ca and I'll send you a copy. I agree with MK's decision to cut him off, and I also think he should be re-admitted but only on the understanding that he refrain from using offensive language, an arrangement that MK and the Stranger should negotiate in private. The Stranger knew what he was doing and purposely stepped over the line. Responsible adults should know better.CG dragonfly (12/5/99; 13:16:05MDT - Msg ID:20326) Peter Asher Working smart Peter, thanks for the response and the splitting tip, it makes sense, I'll try it that way on the next batch.Lately I have appreciated the posts that speak more to the physical world of work, turning bolts, production and so forth, since sooner or later it does boil down to effort expended today being returned in some future time and place. It is easier to understand than many of the various mechanisms that make it possible. Maybe that is why I turned to gold coins in the first place, because it just made sense and required so much less participation in a corrupted system of near infinite betrayal. It is interesting to note that quite a few of my friends who have 'gone along' with the 401K game, and have substantial paper profits over the last 10 years, are somewhat disturbed now that financial rumblings have awakened their sensibilities and they notice the 'sacrifice' required to get liquid. I joked with them over the years that the faith required to participate in such a system was ever an amazement to me, especially given the fact that they wouldn't trust their dollars with the neighbor next door much less someone they didn't know a few blocks away, yet they would hand it over under the most interesting of 'conditionalities' to folks who were doing all manner of odd things with those dollars. Some of us wondered what was in it for the company we worked for since they made such a big deal of it every year and those of us who did not participate (few in number) were subtly pressured to attend the annual spiel given by some cute 30 something PR flak from Fidelity. Having a principled oppositional stance regarding the something-for-nothing pre-tax 'investment' game I was ironically surprised to discover a couple of years ago that I had 17 dollars in a 401K account that was set up for me as a result of the legal distribution of non-vested match dollars from the accounts of employees who left the company!! The government doesn't seem to want anyone to be left out of their 'largesse'. Anyway, I have said for a long while that I didn't think retirement was in the cards for me anyway and that if I could live with small periods of creative leisure (mopping up that do-list and breathing in some fresh air) interspersed with working in smarter ways that that would suffice. Building community of sorts is much more satisfying than focussing on mere individual survival, which relies on community ties to begin with anyway. 'Work til ya drop and leave alot of gold to someone you love.' Here is one from Dan Van Gorder's "Ill Fares the Land""We display great naivete in our widely accepted and expanding philosophy of the advantages of idleness, politely called leisure time. The prevalent dogma that work is an antiquated and insufferable evil, justifying governmental action and organized labor's joint efforts to bring about its eventual eradication, is a worm-eaten fruit of the present generation. Certainly it could not have been tolerated by the men and women who hewed this nation from a wilderness and lifted it from a few struggling coastal settlements to a place of world leadership - a job accomplished in a little more than two centuries. This foolish philosophy has risen with or fruited from the social and economic dislocations following the World War I and World War II era that has given us music without harmony, art without resemblance, family life without discipline, education without knowledge, religion without God - a period of revolt against restraint, of organized crime, of unprecedented hedonism, and the paradoxical sacrifice of priceless liberties on the altar of so-called democracy. It should be recalled, however, that "made" work is government-controlled work and dovetails into the collectivistic plan of driving everybody onto relief and thereby forcing the capatilistic system to commit suicide." tedw (12/5/99; 12:48:28MDT - Msg ID:20325) Waking up to what money is Http://www.usagold.com This is a different kind of post about gold, a different perspective.If you look at the clad quarter in your pocket you will see it has serrated edges.Why? Because at one time the coins were made of precious metals of gold and silver, and to prevent "clipping" they were minted with serrated edges. This was to prevent the precious metal being shaved off by unscrupulous people (Bill Murphy would say it was the ancestors of those now running Goldman Sachs).In 1968 Lyndon Johnson (an infamous American Traitor) eliminated the silver out of our money. Yet the Treasury department continued to mint facsimile coins of a clad silver-like material with serrated edges. Why? To get the sheeple to psychologically accept the "phoney money" as real money. They didnt want anybody saying "you cant fool me, this is just a big penny"And it worked'since Sheeple liked to be lied to, and besides they had never really been told that they had a legal right to honest gold and silver money.The system works ok as long as people are asleep and acceptthe phoney money as real. During the Carter years many people lost confidence in the money (another way of saying they woke up to the fact that it wasnt real money). As a result the price of gold soared to $800 worth of the play money.Not to long ago (before the October run up), I talked to a very highly paid investment councilor who tried to convince me that Gold was no longer money.He believed it because someone had hypnotized him, and he was running around hypnotizing others into the same belief. Astonishing, a highly paid investment councilor who didnt even realize that Gold is real money!!In essence, what the European Central Banks did was say to the world, "Wake up!!Gold is real money!!!.Of course, they knew it all along as that is the reason why they keep it in their vaults. Well, that caused people to start waking up and Gold took off,perhaps too much too soon.But Y2k is just around the corner. In times of economic and civil strife and lack of confidence in the government, people wake up to the fact that fiat money isnt real and rush to real money: Gold. It has always happened in the past and my sense is that it will happen in the future, the near future. People will wake up, realize that paper notes are not real money and flee to gold.By the way, I am of the opinion that people could be made to accept Monoply money as real money. There is really no difference between it and US fiat notes except that it is printed by Parker Bros. or whoever it is that manufactures monoply.The world is about to wake up again to the fact that Gold is real money.Those who have it have protected themselves and their family. Lafisrap (12/5/99; 12:42:21MDT - Msg ID:20324) canamami (12/5/99; 11:54:47MDT - Msg ID:20321) Canammami, as a result of reading your words, below, I had some thoughts that may be worth sharing.***Thank you for your detailed reply. Would the manipulation not have been prior to August 1971, when the US printed dollars alegedly backed by gold, but which weren't backed by gold. Once the bluff was called in August 1971, what manipulation occurred after that date? The rest of the world could have just "eaten" their loss, just as creditors always do when a debtor goes bankrupt, and accepted no more US dollars as settlement. That didn't happen. The question being: Why not?, and why should it be different now?***Could it be that many common people were deliberately exploited by their political and business leaders (two turns of the wrench in exchange for one) while the dollar was gold backed, and when those doing the exploiting unexpectedly found themselves holding paper dollars backed by nothing, because the US dollar was still worth something as a result of it still be used for oil, the paper dollars were still seen as valuable by those who were willing to sell the labor of their people so cheaply. I expect that the losing-end workers actually get much less than the value of the labor exchange represented in the currency exchange. The political and business leaders get the difference.So, perhaps the "oil backing" gave value to the US dollar, the ones doing the exploiting were more inclined to accept paper dollars with some exchange value as oposed to declaring foul and accepting nothing, and as a result the US has them "hooked on dollars" based on the greed of the exploiters. Could it be that the US just stumbled into this situation?Lafisrap tedw (12/5/99; 12:35:36MDT - Msg ID:20323) Waking up to what money is Http://www.usagold.com This is a different kind of post about gold, a different perspective.If you look at the clad quarter in your pocket you will see it has serrated edges.Why? Because at one time the coins were made of precious metals of gold and silver, and to prevent "clipping" they were minted with serrated edges. This was to prevent the precious metal being shaved off by unscrupulous people (Bill Murphy would say it was the ancestors of those now running Goldman Sachs).In 1968 Lydon Johnson (an infamous American Traitor) eliminated the silver out of our money. Yet the Treasury department continued to mint facsimile coins of a clad silver-like material with serrated edges. Why? To get the sheeple to psychologically accept the "phoney money" as real money. And it worked since Sheeple liked to be lied to, and besides they had never really been told that they had a legal right to honest gold and silver money.The system works ok as long as people are asleep and acceptthe phoney money as real. During the Carter years many people lost confidence in the money (another way of saying they woke up to the fact that it wasnt real money). As a result the price of gold soared to $800 worth of the play money.Not to long ago (before the October run up), I talked to a very highly paid investment councilor who tried t Peter Asher (12/5/99; 12:17:44MDT - Msg ID:20322) Koan Censorship ??? Really Koan, if I don't want some one using four letter words in front of my Grandchildren, in my own home, is that censorship??? I am in total agreement with Aristotle's #230314 on this. We are guests on this forum, not tenets paying rent, or share owners in seats at the Round Table. And, even if we were, we would be beholding to any CC&R's that we agreed to when we bought in. I regret that we are having our first quarrel, especially as it a disagreement regarding the Castle Architecture rather than in the topics of discussion, but then Gold leads to philosophy and politics, and therefore censorship. Actually the "Stranger" Debate is really about property rights IMO. "A Man's Home is his Castle" it is said. More later. canamami (12/5/99; 11:54:47MDT - Msg ID:20321) Reply to FOA - post# 20311 FOA,Thank you for your detailed reply. Would the manipulation not have been prior to August 1971, when the US printed dollars alegedly backed by gold, but which weren't backed by gold. Once the bluff was called in August 1971, what manipulation occurred after that date? The rest of the world could have just "eaten" their loss, just as creditors always do when a debtor goes bankrupt, and accepted no more US dollars as settlement. That didn't happen. The question being: Why not?, and why should it be different now?I believe that the individuals who run countries also feel the demands of past debts due, and deep cultural ties. I believe that one reason that Britain backed Canada in the "fish war" with Spain went back to 1939-45, perhaps even 1914-18. Just MHO, accept it or reject it. koan (12/5/99; 11:50:42MDT - Msg ID:20320) AEL - most important and courageous post I have ever read - Now, do I get censored as well - AEL - who's next? The Stranger has a long track record of being responsible and in my opinion absolutely one of the smartest and most honest poster's this forum ever had. He deserves a public airing by this forum - may we please see the post? Censorship has always been the most dangerous action to man's freedom and should only be exercised under the most severe circumstances. AEL, I applaud you for your courage - and that is what your post is courageous. What scares me is that I have to think of it as courageous? Think about it. Koan. canamami (12/5/99; 11:42:55MDT - Msg ID:20319) Reply to Aristotle - #20307 Thank you for your excellent reply.The expression "gold is dead" is shorthand for the notion that gold is losing its role as a financial asset. The issue is whether its relative importance is declining, to the point when it will lose this role absolutely. Perhaps a better expression would be "gold is dying" rather than "gold is dead". Remember, my conclusion was predicated on there being no ME or Asian demand to absorb the official reserves that can be leased and/or dumped on the market, or produced in the future. Bring in adequate amounts of such demand (especially official demand), and the world will laugh at the official holdings in "unsteady" hands. I just need to see evidence that such sufficient demand exists.I don't view the Comex price as a total con-game representing paper only. The BOE auction concerned physical, not paper. It sold out at about $293.50, and was only 2.2 times oversubscribed. This was materially close to the Comex price. Thus, based on Comex, the FMV for gold is $280.00 right now, roughly. I do not believe that would be the FMV if sufficient Asian or ME demand were in play. Further, why would Arab CB's dump gold if they view it as the ultimate value? Now, there is the somewhat alternate theory that the Fed is acting to artifically suppress the POG (Bill Murphy), for ulterior reasons, but that this will eventually be broken. Judging from my investment decisions, this appears to be the theory I am following, wisely or unwisely. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 11:32:49MDT - Msg ID:20318) Dragonfly (Y2K subject) >>>> just broke in a new chainsaw and have been splitting red oak with sledgehammer and wedges.<<<<Just in case your new at this, Cut a 2'round X 1 1/2' section for a chopping block under log to be split and use a maul. If there are no knots in the log it should split in one swing Peter Asher (12/5/99; 11:24:16MDT - Msg ID:20317) Dragonfly, Excellent!! (Turbohawg, is this what we're talking about?) The following excerpt from your post IMO should stand alone as a most perfect singular paragraph describing the pitfalls and chllanges of democratic systems.>>>> It will not stop until we act upon one simple axiom: that the powersystem continues only so long as individuals want it to continue, and it will continue only solong as individuals try to get something for mothing. The day when a majority of individualsdeclares or acts as if it wants nothing from government, declares it will look after its ownwelfare and interests, then on that day the power elites are doomed. The attraction to "go along"with power elites is the attraction of something for nothing. That is the bait. The Establishmentalways offers something for nothing; but the something is taken from someone else, as taxes orplunder, and awarded elsewhere in exchange for political support. <<<< Simply Me (12/5/99; 11:16:25MDT - Msg ID:20316) Hello, Felix the Cat Felix the Cat (12/2/99; 14:47:48MDT - Msg ID:20072)"Simply Me I interested in your message(ID:20039)well, as I know that the waterway through Panama will holding by HWL(a big company in HK) in Y2k, NOT the Chinese Gov..And also the Chairperson of HWL said that is only use for commercial way.What do you think?<:-)F. C"Sorry I took so long to answer. I was busy....and, it seems, so was this forum. Didn't think it right to interrupt with something off topic. The Panama Canal situation still scares me. Hong Kong is under China's dominion now. China is communist. Communist governments see everythingang everyone as THEIR's!(Aside: Strange twist on the mega-rich captalist's idea, "Own nothing, control everything.", eh?) This communist country also seems to be in an expansionist phase. Tibethas been wriggling under China's thumb for a long time. Hong Kong surrendered recently. Now China "licks its chops" over Taiwan. China has also been trying to gain a toehold in or near the U.S. for a long time. A few years ago, Chinese companies were trying to lease closed Military Base's in California. Don't know if any of those attemptssucceeded.Businessmen around the world smile and shake each other's hands while secretly plotting their "friend's" demise. Governments are even worse!And a governmental plot wrapped in the cloak of business is the mostdeadly "friend" of all!In summary: I think a Chinese wolf has put on the sheep's costume of Hong Kong Business in order to sneak in to the U.S. farmer's barn!If I am wrong, I would be glad to hear it. Maybe I'm just too paranoid. But then, paranoia about my own government is what got me interested in gold...so it has a bright side, yes?simple me dragonfly (12/5/99; 11:03:23MDT - Msg ID:20315) ET Hello ET - all is well here - just broke in a new chainsaw and have been splitting red oak with sledgehammer and wedges. Hard work is satisfying! I am pleased that you found my post interesting and I appreciate the quotes from the Mises Memo. It is time I did some research and learning in that area. I plan to visit the link today.Here is one from Antony Sutton's "Wall Street and the Rise of Hitler""Of all recent history the story of Operation Keelhaul is perhaps the most disgusting. Operation Keelhaul was the forced repatriation of millions of Russians at the orders of President (then General) Eisenhower, in direct violation of the Geneva Convention of 1929 and the long-standing American tradition of political refuge. Operation Keelhaul, which contravenes all our ideas of elementary decency and individual freedom, was undertaken at the direct orders of General Eisenhower and, we may now presume, was a part of a long-range program of nurturing collectivism, whether it be Soviet communism, Hitlers naziism, or FDR's new deal. Yet until recent publication of documentary evidence by Julius Epstein, anyone who dared suggest Eisenhower would betray millions of innocent individuals for political purposes was viciously and mercilessly attacked. What this revisionist history really teaches us is that our willingness as individual citizens to surrender political power to an elite has cost the world approximately two hundred million persons killed from 1820-1975. Add to that untold misery the concentration camps, the political prisoners, the suppression and oppression of those who try to bring the truth to light. When will it stop? It will not stop until we act upon one simple axiom: that the power system continues only so long as individuals want it to continue, and it will continue only so long as individuals try to get something for mothing. The day when a majority of individuals declares or acts as if it wants nothing from government, declares it will look after its own welfare and interests, then on that day the power elites are doomed. The attraction to "go along" with power elites is the attraction of something for nothing. That is the bait. The Establishment always offers something for nothing; but the something is taken from someone else, as taxes or plunder, and awarded elsewhere in exchange for political support. Periodic crises and wars are used to whip up support for other plunder-reward cycles which in effect tighten the noose around our individual liberties. And of course we have hordes of academic sponges, amoral businessmen, and just plain hangers-on, to act as non-productive recipients for the plunder. Stop the circle of plunder and immoral reward and elitist structures collapse."I have been interested in the ability of some of our ancestors to get to the root of things in eloquent language. Over the years I have typed up a number of passages that hit home. Here is one from Joel Barlow in his "Advice to the Privileged Orders in the Several States of Europe" written from 1792-1795 and subtitled 'Resulting from the necessity and propriety of a general revolution in the principles of government.'"A nation is surely in a wretched condition, when the principal object of its government is the increase of its revenue. Such a state of things is in reality a perpetual warfare between the few individuals who govern, and the great body of the people who labour. Or, to call things by their proper names, and use the only language that the nature of the case will justify, the real occupation of the governors is either to plunder or to steal, as will best answer their purpose; while the business of the people is to secret their property by fraud, or to give it peaceably up, in proportion as the other party demands it; and then, as a consequence of being driven to this necessity, they slacken their industry, and become miserable through idleness, in order to avoid the mortification of labouring for those they hate."ORO mentioned something to this effect recently regarding the 'Generation Xers' and their potential lack of willingness to uphold their end of a bargain (vis a vis the 'Boomers') that they had no say in. Should be interesting.Take care,dragonfly Aristotle (12/5/99; 10:54:20MDT - Msg ID:20314) AEL--I had no intention of getting drawn into this But your comment of the forum self-policing as a means to keep things as they should be has a degree of merit. Therefore I would like to offer this small tweet on my tin whistle--These endless pleas on behalf of The Stranger are quite off-topic from Gold as and investment or financial asset, and risk falling into the same category as a past obsession with colloidal silver. Know what I mean? As I see it, any resolution would have to be rest upon The Stranger sorting this out with MK behind the scenes. If as a guest I ran afoul in a host's house and thereby lost my standing invitation to future gatherings, it would distinctly be my sole responsibly to explore the avenues of reconciliation with the host. This gathering isn't a democracy where the mob rules, but more like a man's parlor in which we as guests must respect his values and standards, no matter how high and civil they may be. I'm sure MK sees this forum as a reflection on his good name and business. If it were to evolve into a bad reflection, I sure know what decision I would make. Lights out. Ample freedom exists in the streets, but it must be limited by the proper attention to decorum while in another man's house. I've already belabored this point well beyond my original intention. I simply wanted to make the self-policing case as stated above to leave the pleas to the appropriate parties.beesting--I owe you some thoughts on offshore banking, but must run an errand. I've got you on my "to do" list.Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle Skip (12/5/99; 10:43:00MDT - Msg ID:20313) Gold Spike #2 Although I rarely post, I read much of this forum almost daily...and appreciate the well-thought-out comments. This is especially true during the decade of decadence and deception, where TRUTH is difficult to sort out among all the mis-information promoted by the Press and available on the internet. I, like many, am anxious to see Gold Spike #2; but it is very difficult to predict when it will happen.Most of us can't help but truly wonder if and when gold will ever return to realistic levels...as was evidenced by the numerous comments (pro and con) regarding Another and FOA and thier comments these last couple of years. Frankly, I perceive the tendency to criticism as simply being symptoms of our frustration at seeing the long-awaited gold bull kicked down before it could get off and running.Many of us (myself included) feel as though the (@#$%^&) was kicked out of us when "The Big Breakout" was changed into the Big Disappointment by the manipulators. Gold Spike #1 was crushed by the "big boys," thus it's no wonder that some posters are prone to criticize more than they might in normal times. I'm sure most of you read information regarding the activities of GATA...and perhaps many (if not most) also read gold-eagle.com. If you are like me, you're probably looking for SOMETHING to help you believe that you did not throw your money away by buying gold or investing in gold stocks.When everything is all said and done, however, no matter how dark it now looks, I believe that it is a certainty that gold will eventually rise again, like a golden Phoenix out of the ashes of despair. BOTTOM LINE: The longer it takes for Gold Spike #2, in my opinion, the greater that spike will be...perhaps making Gold Spike #1 look small by comparison.Let me also add that I appreciate all who contribute to this forum, as this is one place where it is easier to sort out the gems from the rocks. This forum is CERTAINLY a cut above another forum (that I won't name); but I agree with MK's desire to discourage personal attacks. He once removed one of my postings when a competitor of his was attacked by someone and I defended that competitor in a way that looked like an ad. I believe that he was acting appropriately under the circumstances. Let's appreciate this forum.Happy Holidays,Skip beesting (12/5/99; 10:24:45MDT - Msg ID:20312) Thank You Peter! .....beesting FOA (12/5/99; 10:22:02MDT - Msg ID:20311) Reply canamami (12/04/99; 22:46:25MDT - Msg ID:20286)1. In Don Coxe's weekly conference call, reference was made to some agreement or proposalwhereby "two zeros" will be dropped off the Japanese currency. This forms part of the "parity" notion - that one US dollar will equal one Euro will equal one yen.Hello canamami, Ok, fair enough, I'll take this a little at a time. In this context we back out the flows of equity investment motives and look only at currency derivatives as official treasury debt held in lieu of cash. US debt is held in foreign countries by two classes. Some of it is private (mutual funds, citizens and companies doing dollar based business) and government (official Central Bank). Usually, the private holdings are done because someone has an idea (right or wrong) about the direction of their local currency values and interest rates (yen, Marks, Euros). Just like you and I, they may want to diversify their assets. "In times past", for every foreign buyer of US cash, their was a local (US) citizen that for the same reasons, wanted to diversify outside of the US. So they kind of balanced this flow and this action did not impact balance of trade accounts. Again, we are talking about cash flows for the sake of owning savings, not any form of equity flows. In the private sector, it was always the business trade that built up excess dollars as they sold more "goods" to the US for dollars than the US businesses sold to them. Using Japan, the net effect of all their private companies selling into the US created a huge negative balance of trade account. For many years now, if these countries walked into the foreign exchange markets and sold these excess dollars for Yen, it would have drove the yen way up. If done early and before a large position builds up, this is the "natural way" a true fair currency exchange market should work. If the US continues to buy more from Japan than it sells, the currency markets react until the goods being traded are evenly priced. This action would protect the workers of both countries from being exploited, even though their productive efforts are equal. Contrary to the "business community propaganda" a worker in Japan does not tighten a bolt better or faster than one in the US. Take all the technology innovations and pour it into a big pot along with natural human nature and add some cultural differences. Boil it down and we find that through the world over everyone works the same for the same incentives. Of course the business community always leaves out a "true" incentive / compensation package when comparing national productive effectiveness. Trust me, I've been everywhere and seen it all. You would not work as "effectively" and as productively in, say India, if you received the same pay they do. No, by far and wide, the real national industry productivity measurements are all skewered from "engineered" exchange rates between nations. So, back to our currency rates. No person or nation ever extended it's wealth by selling two TVs in exchange for one TV. The US knows that the road to national wealth is not in a strong currency by itself, rather it's through operating in a manipulated currency market! If your workers can tighten one bolt in exchange for foreigners tightening two or three bolts, your wealth, standard of living and voting citizens are better off. Under the old dollar / gold standard, no foreign government wanted to see it's people tightening 3 or 4 bolts in trade for every one the US worker did. Perhaps a ratio of one turn for two could work for a while until their economies grew. But no one wanted to get locked into doing this forever, as this modern dollar standard has forced then to do. It worked better back then as they traded two turns of the nut for one US turn and they retained a little gold wealth in the form of US dollars. Are you still with me? This is important to grasp. ------- A foreign nation traded real wealth for real wealth, even though gold was part of the wealth equation. No, I'm sure it wasn't equal, but it was close. In return, the US gave up some sovereign power over it's gold hoard by allowing gold claims,,,,dollars,,,,to be held overseas. In return they still increased their living standard by getting more value than they sold, even though some of it was in gold trade.--------- All of this started the "new era" of a negative US balance of trade deficit. No ORO, it didn't show up on the official money flows because the US did send the dollars out. BUT!!!,,, they didn't record the trade on the negative side as the """gold loan"""" it really was! Yes, we shipped some bullion out, but more often than not, nations were content to leave the gold in the US where it was to back the dollars held overseas. The proof that this occurred comes in the fact that by 1971, the dollars outnumbered the US gold five to one. So, as we can see, nations starting holding dollars and US treasury debt because it represented a wealth for wealth exchange. Nations, Japan included, were content to have their Central banks enter the currency exchange markets and buy up the excess dollars their businesses created when they sold more to the US than they brought. In that time they did not think they were exploiting their workers into making two turns on the bolt for one US turn, because they were trading most of the additional "twists" for the wealth of gold. By 1971 the "dirty float" of currency exchange markets was normal practice until the US closed the gold backing for the dollar. Suddenly, all the dollars that were purchased overseas to adjunct the exchange rates were now worthless! The only recourse for governments to regain real wealth for all the additional "nut turns" was to use the dollars to buy local American goods. One problem though, all the dollars were collected while the gold standard impacted exchange rates! Now, with only a pure dirty float for an exchange market, any reverse selling of the dollar into the US would drop that currencies value. So, the good purchased from the US would only represent a tiny return of the wealth value these dollars were originally traded for. It is here that the story begins to change and the world heads for a new alignment. Everyone in the world was impacted by this move. From oil producers to auto makers in Japan. Everyone lost, big. If gold had become so worthless, as most US politicians proclaimed, why didn't they just revalue what they had left to, say $2,000 and call in what dollars were out there? They didn't because in that scenario they would have drained the dollar as a reserve unit and killed the notion of dollar supremacy. Gold would have regained it's exact value as money to the world prior to currency / exchange / standards. Perhaps $3,000 or $4,000 and ounce (back then) and the US would have run some real inflation. The world Central Bankers (and oil producers) took a real hit when this all happened and it won't be allowed again. They have supported the fiat dollar standard and even helped "pump it up". All in an effort to keep business rolling until a new currency could be created. One based on several economic national arenas, no dollar reserves and a world market price for gold. As opposed to the present IOU paper dollar gold system. Even though the Euro is born, this package is not complete, but it's getting there! Truly, You have to have been around the turn a few times to understand that no one (and I mean NO one) is wanting a larger piece of the old dollar pie. The notion of currency parity for the purpose of trading up debt reserves is something being floated by the Washington think crew! Are these nations trying to pay up for past US military action? Oh boy, not a chance. Why don't we pay Italy for all the good the Roman legions did for everyone!! No one is worried that the US will back away from protecting it's interest after it's bankrupt. Whether it's oil or national security, they will act as best as able. See ORO's post about this, it's real good. Besides, look at Russia. No money, no nothing but still out there firing away! Also: The present paper gold market depends on new hikers entering the gold trail towards it's end. They buy paper gold as some kind of stock market / investment hedge without knowing the big picture. In the past their actions would have worked their purpose. But, not in this transition. A currency exchange storm is going to sink a lot of these paper boats and kill the very assets many wanted to protect. Buy the gold not the price!Thanks FOA canamami (12/5/99; 10:17:53MDT - Msg ID:20310) Reply to AEL #20302 This situation is not pleasant, nor one-sided, and reasonable people can take different positions. To use the language of Canadian administrative law (which may be nonsensical to sane people), I would say that I disagree with with MK's action, but that it's not "patently unreasonable on its face."I reiterate my postion: MK alone "owns" the site, and he controls it as he deems appropriate. We posters, Knights , etc. will have to decide for ourselves our response to the situation. Our freedom has not been taken from us - we have many other places to go to post about gold, and I'm sure other sites will be happy to have The Stranger present, posting and contributing.I chose to continue posting this weekend as I had ideas gestating, and this is traditionally where I post, and generally I like it here, to a great extent because the tone is generally civil and serious. I'll have more time to reflect on my future approach once the weekend is over. Peter Asher (12/5/99; 10:16:08MDT - Msg ID:20309) Aristotle >>>> Your conclusion should be dismissed post-haste.<<<<Was the double meaning intentional? Peter Asher (12/5/99; 10:12:26MDT - Msg ID:20308) Ari, this post is dedicated to you Gold is worth more dead than alive! To a perspective buyer, that isActually gold is never dead. Perhaps dormant, hibernating, sleeping, or down, but dead? No such thing. Beesting has just now described much of this reality. Something that is dead has no more value. Was anyone contemplating throwing their gold in the trash, I thought not. There, you see? Not dead after all is it?Now if one is seeking to buy Gold, It is cheaper when people think it is dead. The cheaper it is to buy, the more it is worth when you have it. Ergo, "Worth more dead than alive!" Aristotle (12/5/99; 10:10:37MDT - Msg ID:20307) canamami--here's Occam's razor for you Where you suggest that Canada has been selling Gold because it knew Gold was dead, I'd suggest that the more simple reason is that they must be fiscally more responsible that the United States (which has the luxury of issuing the key currency.) Perhaps in an effort to balance the national books they have sold Gold rather than diluting their currency into complete oblivion through issue of domestic bonds. Pure speculation on my part--but quite a simple solution nonetheless.Your conclusion should be dismissed post-haste. It could prove quite detrimental to your wealth. You said, "Without some deus ex machina like ME or Asian demand to save the day, it would appear the better view is that "gold is dead". This goes to my previous posts that the POG (and gold) requires some demand side action to save it, not merely a crimp in supply."It never fails to impress me how after all the past discussion on this matter these conclusion continue to pop up from time to time. I might expect it from a fresh new face, but sheeeesh, canamami, you've been here forever. Gold is in use as money even now on such a scale that there is no need to "save the day" as you indicate, but rather a need for people to save themselves. Please give your full attention to the following background info and news release from the London Bullion Market Association. If the first sentence in the background, coupled with the daily average turnover, doesn't turn your impression around to a new reality, then nothing else I could offer would ever succeed on that account.Gold. Get you some. ---AristotleLBMA BACKGROUNDLondon is the global clearing centre for gold and silver in much the same way that all US dollar transactions ultimately clear in New York or Japanese yen in Tokyo. Figures for amounts cleared are collected monthly by the LBMA from the eight clearing members.Three measures are taken separately for each metal:1) Volume--the amount of metal transferred on average each day measured in millions of troy ounces 2) Value--the value measured in USD, using the monthly average London pm fixing price for gold3) Number of Transfers--the average number recorded each day.The figures include:* Loco London book transfers from one party in a Clearing Member's books to another party in the same Member's books or in the books of another Clearing Member.* Physical transfers and shipments by Clearing Members.* Transfers over Clearing Members' accounts at the Bank of England. RELEASE DATE: Friday 12 November 1999-------------------------------------Clearing Turnover Statistics: October 1999 All gold and silver clearing figures showed an increase during the volatile month of October, but the rate of increase varied greatly from one statistic to another. With a daily average of 37.2 million ounces, gold ounces transferred were only nominally higher - still, it was the highest level since February 1998. The average price, $310.731, was the first time the average has been above $300 since November 1997. It brought average daily value to $11.5 billion, an increase of 17% over the previous month. A solid gain was also registered in the number of transfers, which rose by 11% to 1,205. SteveH (12/5/99; 10:03:02MDT - Msg ID:20306) links http://cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/business/ andhttp://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/hein120699.html beesting (12/5/99; 9:39:26MDT - Msg ID:20305) canamami #20299. Sir, thank you for your fine post,I feel you posted to create some discussion.Well, here is a small amount from me;Gold in some instances is NOT looked upon as only a financial asset.I'll give a few examples:Did any of the royal families sell Gold when it peaked over $800 per ounce?Did the Catholic Church sell when the price peaked over $800 per ounce?Did married couples rush out to sell their wedding rings when Gold peaked at over $800 per ounce?IMHO the ownership of Gold has and still does have a very special place in the world,especially in third world countries.Another point again In My Humble Opinion,it's been only the last 50 to 60 years that people perceive their home as an investment to sell if the price is right,many still do not see their home as an investment but as a warm,comfortable,place to live.Some in our family have known poverty and realize sole ownership of Gold makes that person FEEL special,no matter what the estimated dollar price of Gold is.Our investments,our home,and our Gold are all in seperate categories even tho we can figure a monthly dollar value for them.I hope you and no-one else is offended by my viewpoints,but thats the way I see it for this Goldheart.....Thank You for all your fine posts......beesting. Phos (12/5/99; 9:23:51MDT - Msg ID:20304) SteveH (12/5/99; 7:44:34MDT - Msg ID:20295) Further to your post from Rhody, Bill Murphy of Le Metropole is saying something similar. He as heard from 4 sources that the Fed is playing gold games. Not an even playing field here. I wonder if FOA has heard anything about this. It sounds as if these may acts of desperation and the system is starting to fall apart as predicted, I believe, by FOA. Is the $US in its last days?------------------------------------------------Le Metropole members,Midas du Metropole has served commentary at The James Joyce Table entitled, "THE FED - THE FED - THE FED.""All week I heard just one thing - the Federal Reserve of the United States of America is knocking the crap out of the gold market. Early in the week those utterances came to me in whispers from A source - a bullion dealer. By the end of the week, 4 highly credible sources told me the same thing. This is truly unjust and an outrage and GATA is going to do something about it. It is time to take the battle to them. Hit them hard and where it can do some good and actually turn the tide on this misuse of power. GATA's action plan will be laid out to you very shortly. You will be integrated into the plan and it won't take you more than 10 minutes of your time if you would like to help." SteveH (12/5/99; 9:15:19MDT - Msg ID:20303) canamami Excellent point. What if gold is dead? I had brought this up with FOA early on. ORO has delved into this as well. If the past serves me well, I recall we concluded that it can't be so. Why? Knowns:Central Banks of Europe said they will only divest 2000 tons over five years. That leaves them 9,000 tons.Asians, Indians, Middle Easterners, and Europeans still believe in gold and use it in some forms as money.Only the US and England stand ready to lease gold in quantity to control the price of gold.The above supports the theory that the dollar is in danger of loosing its reserve status.Gold doesn't act as though it is dying. What looks like it is on the last leg is the paper gold markets in the US and London. This is support by Bill Murphy and Frank Venerasso who maintain through their research a 8,000 ton and growing naked short position on gold contracts. Even conservative estimates of gold gurus support a 3,000 ton short position.***No, gold is the most alive financial asset. It is being held in abeyance currently by the controllers of the paper gold market in order to keep it from springing to life as a jack in the box. The lid is easy to hold down but don't let the lid get too open for fear it will jump and jump high. That is my take on it, anyway. The facts support FOA, imo. AEL (12/5/99; 9:14:38MDT - Msg ID:20302) usagold, stranger, etc. USAGOLD (12/04/99; 18:27:54MDT - Msg ID:20273):"...no one is above the rules. If you cannot debate an issue without makingit personal, then don't even sign up to post here. That is not what thisplace is all about."....... I'll buy that. And certainly I agree with the "let's maintain acivil discussion here" point of view. Now, may we please SEE the allegedlyoffensive post(s), so that we may judge for ourselves? "If it were, USAGOLD would degenerate into a juvenile showcase/chat room inno time."....... Oh, surely you do not believe that. The high level of discussionhere perpetuates itself, attracts contributions of a like kind, discouragescontributions of an unlike kind, and generally disciplines itself. Indeed,I find the usagold board to be a fine microcosmic example of (noble)anarchy in action -- a cooperative, self-regulating community."I'm not going to let that happen."....... Good! Perhaps we can *help* you not let that happen. Could weplease see the allegedly offensive post(s)?"The rules are few and without complication. One of them is that personalattacks are forbidden. There is no wiggle room there."....... Well, clearly there *is* wiggle room here, as there should be, andthe precise extent of it is most appropriately determined by open airingand exchange amongst the community members, beginning with public scrutinyof the allegedly offensive post(s). Could we see them, please?"I simply enforce the rules in the interest of all who post here for thelong term good of all involved."....... Could it be that the participants here are the best judges of theirown interests?"If I don't act to stop one, it gives license to all."....... No, it doesn't. A number of sharp words have been exchanged overthe months without anyone thenceforth assuming "license" to behave like ananal sphincter. The key is the prevailing ethos of civility, the sincerethirst of all here to achieve a more profound understanding of the issuesin question, and generally the convivial, self-policing, self-organizing,self-correcting nature of this forum. I have every confidence in theability of this forum to discipline and ostracize, as necessary, miscreantswho truly ARE inexcusably "over the line". (Does anyone here lack thisconfidence?) Again, noble anarchy in action."The Stranger made two posts which I considered to be a direct attack of apersonal nature on a fellow table member. He also made what I consider tohave been some ill-founded, and unbased accusations -- and that wasprobably the more eggregious offense."........ Sounds awful. May we please see the allegedly offensive post(s)?"I think it is important to provide a posting culture where individuals --both novice and initiated -- can participate without the fear of being tornto pieces by someone who disagrees with them, or doesn't like theirforecast, or whatever."........ I think it is important that individuals not be shielded from therough-and-tumble of the ideas marketplace (as other marketplaces). That mayinclude occasionally being the recipient of some sharp words. However,there are of course limits, reached when "a few sharp words" degenerateinto persistent malice, calculated disruption, etc. These limits can beestablished and applied, consensually, in the course of events, by acommunity of intelligent people of good will -- such as we have here......... Last: I emphasized in my first post that Stranger was not a"troll", and I gave a definition thereof. I pointed this out for a reason.I am not necessarily opposed to a strong, censorious hand deleting postsand even revoking posting priveleges, in the face of clearcut,agent-provocateur-style (calculated and systematic) disruption; i.e. if theinterest of the community is *unquestionably* being challenged andundermined. I have seen this happening on the TB2000 (Y2K) chat board: averitable invasion of trolls, who relentlessly disrupt with the apparentintention of destroying meaningful discourse. In this instance unilateraland summary censorship is (most unfortunately) appropos, to maintain somesemblance of the initial (and still roughly prevailing) spirit of theforum. But nothing that is happening at usagold even remotely resemblesthat. We have here *one* individual who seems to have made somequestionable posts in the past (with varying views as to just howquestionable or inappropriate), and who seems to have made some veryquestionable posts in the last few days -- the "mystery"/deleted postswhich may or may not be intolerably offensive in the eyes of the wholecommunity (as it stands at this moment there is no way of knowing,since some of us have not seen the posts). The consensus of those who*have* seen the "mystery" posts seems to be that Stranger should bere-instated. So it seems to me that we are at an interesting juncture, withthe interests and views (and I would say rights) of the whole of thecommunity, on the one hand, and those of the proprietor of the board, onthe other, not well-reconciled. Aristotle (12/5/99; 9:10:37MDT - Msg ID:20301) Question and comment for Nightrider Nightrider (12/4/99; 10:03:41MDT - Msg ID:20238)--"...The reason for my appreciation is that unlike some in this forum Stranger is not Blind to the realities of Economics as many in here seem to be. Stranger is not a GOLD BUG he is an investor and the reason for investing is to make Money!My question to those in this Forum is, how many of you are able to support your standard of living with your Gold?"An interesting perspective--People invest to make Money!--which brings me to my first question to you: What is Money?My second question might be easier: What is it that they are investing to make this item you call "Money?"My third question requires a presumption on my part, if I may be so bold, that your answer to the second question was "Money": How was this money for the original investment obtained?Arguably, the answer you provide to this third question answers your original question about how those of us at this Forum are able to support our standard of living.To revisit your concept that investors as opposed to Goldbugs (I'm among those that prefer Goldheart to Goldbug as long as we're name-calling) invest for the reason of making money, allow me to present an alternative view. Judging from the tone of your post, I'm guessing that your so-called investor is doing nothing more that swapping one form of gaming piece (fiat dollars) for another (stock certificates or bonds or whatnot.) Knowing that babies are not born with a fistful of dollars, I'm willing to go out on a limb and assume that these original gaming pieces were originally earned through some form of productive personal effort. At some point they probably quit the interim game (stock or bonds) and swap those gaming pieces for the appropriate amount of the original kind of gaming piece. If the interim game went well, they get more dollars, and if it went poorly, they end up with fewer dollars than they started with. If they put these pieces into a bank to earn compound interest, then a different interim game commences in which over time they are guaranteed (unless the bank fails) to get more dollar pieces back than they originally put in. But in all cases (whether the interim game was stocks, bonds, or compound interest) we shouldn't lose sight of the ebbing life (waning purchasing power) of fiat currencies such as is the game piece called a dollar. Take a look at these excellent words from PH in LA--"Calling a system-wide depreciating currency "wealth" stretches our English language even as it stretches the thinking person's credibility. ... We all know about compound interest. As consumers, we have been on the losing end of it all our lives. And not just whenever we fire up our credit cards, either. Compound interest is built into the price of virtually everything we buy, and into everything even remotely touched by our "modern", so-called capitalist system. But your often-heard bromide about compound interest making us wealthy is still impossible to swallow. Percentages are not magic. The magic is the deception that powers them."A brilliant presentation! Of the various avenues for investment that you likely have in mind in your reference to investing, of the ones that aren't outright gambling, my guess it that primary goal is to beat the returns of compound interest, and hopefully to exceed the levels of purchasing power that is lost over time whether the dollars are invested or not. There is overwhelming disincentives to sitting on idle dollars. Where investments look unattractive, the wise person will use these game pieces to immediately buy the real goods that they need--hard assets of one type or another.That is precisely how we support our standard of living. We earn our keep. And when our garages are full of paid-for cars, and our cupboards and cabinets are filled with food, and our closets hold the clothes we need, storage becomes a problem. And as investments remain unattractive or else simply don't suit our lifestyle (who wants the sleepless nights worrying whether other "investors" will find the stock attractive in the morning) or we don't care to spend the precious minutes of our short but wonderful lives with our faces buried in a Wall Street Journal or captivated by the talking heads of CNBC, it is then that we do the most natural act of a free and sophisticated mind. We convert our extra game pieces into real money--Gold. You see, life is too important to let it all pass by as a game. This Gold forms our savings.And the best part is, we save so much time by not fretting over the markets, or reading financial reports, or watching CNBC; and we sleep so well at night that we can be more productive in order to earn more game pieces to support our standard of living and to save the excess through a conversion to REAL money. What's more, we have enough free time to gather here with like-minded individuals. Why? Becauses it's frustrating when your various friends and neighbors "just don't get it." THE Aristotle said that living well was the single proper pursuit of all men. Saving with Gold is as much a guidepost for living well as anything else I have encountered. It puts your focus on your own life, on the concept of value, and provides real, meaningful security for the future. As an added bonus, I can think of nothing better than recognizing an opportunity for a course-correction in your life with Gold in the neighborhood of 20-year lows--an even more attractive bargain when you account for an inflation ravaged dollar over 20 years. What did cars, bicycles, shoes, and pizza cost in 1979 compared to today?Time to start living well.Gold. Save yourself. Save you some. ---Aristotle beesting (12/5/99; 8:35:20MDT - Msg ID:20300) To FOA. 1. Sir, many months ago(before the previous drop in POG below $280) ANOTHER said," the BIS would be buying Gold with both hands if the price dropped below $280". As of today 12/5/99 we are slightly under that benchmark price. Now'since The Washington Agreement has changed the rules concerning Gold,do you or ANOTHER see BIS intervention as a possibility again?2. Since the BIS is "THE CB of the worlds CB's" could they do this action on their own?3. Question #3, When a country "defaults" such as Russia, does that mean; A-The country is refusing to pay their debts ? or; B-The countries currency is no longer acceptable in the world market place?FOA, a sincere Thank You for sharing of your knowledge, views,and time, from this Goldheart, and his family......beesting canamami (12/5/99; 8:24:54MDT - Msg ID:20299) Reply to SteveH - #20294 From Rhody's post, one could argue that Canada sold its gold because it knew it could not keep it anyway when things got ugly, so why not sell it now and at least get something in return.Contrariwise, countries (e.g., Canada) may have sold gold because they have no faith in it keeping its status as a financial asset, so sell it while it still has some value. (Canada has been selling since the 1970's). Following Occam's law or some variant thereof, this second simpler explanation is most probable.Briefly (the workload piles up even this early in the month!), the reason why some of us care for the Comex price is not merely speculation, but with reference to gold there are a number of reasonably coherent theories in play, and one looks to independent evidence from public sources like the Comex price to ascertain what's going on, to determine which theory is true and accurate. The straightforward anti-gold thesis (gold is dying), is simpler and more direct than the somewhat conspiratorial theory advanced by FOA/Another/Oro, which hinges to a degree of diplomatic gambits and hidden actions. That being said, there are events which have occurred for which the FOA theory appears to provide some explanation. Other observers outside the gold world have also pointed to the political actions surrounding gold lately (e.g., Don Coxe), so it is "fairly arguable" (to use a technical legal phrase) but far from proven that the FOA theory is true. Ordinary principles of reasoning would probably tend to favour (IMHO) the "gold is dead" theory. The third theory would be the older mainstream investment industry theory, which holds that the POG will increase at times of inflation (examples of internet exponents being The Stranger and Offshore at the MIQ site). This theory turns on and requires (IMHO) a critical mass of investors who will doubt national currencies, and regard gold as the alternative, durable money (this goes to my past posts about the symbiosis between true believer and speculator goldbugs). My critique of this theory is the past profits made in gold speculation were based on there being a critical mass of true believer goldbugs. Without this critical mass (and also in the face of huge official reserves subject to being sold off), there is no reason why the historical precedent of gold rising in times of inflation should continue to hold true. In a sense, one reason why so many gold bugs pay attention to the FOA theory is that it provides a basis (in Middle-East and Asian demand for gold, and Euro politics) to believe that gold has a future, to restore the old mainstream theory concerning gold rising in times of inflation. Without some deus ex machina like ME or Asian demand to save the day, it would appear the better view is that "gold is dead". This goes to my previous posts that the POG (and gold) requires some demand side action to save it, not merely a crimp in supply. SteveH (12/5/99; 8:20:14MDT - Msg ID:20298) So what good is gold if you have to use all of it to defend it? What does this have to do with protecting gold? It has to do with affording to protect gold. The legal profession would appear to have a lock on protecting gold, or do they?PRO SE is the act of defending one self.HALT -- Quicken Family Lawyer Amicus Curiae BriefNo. 99-10388IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALSFOR THE FIFTH CIRCUITUNAUTHORIZED PRACTICE OF LAW COMMITTEE,Plaintiff-Appellee,v. PARSONS TECHNOLOGY, INC., d/b/aQUICKEN FAMILY LAWYER,Defendant-Appellant.On Appeal from the United States District Courtfor the Northern District of TexasBRIEF OF AMICUS CURIAE HALT, INC. -- An Organization of Americans for Legal Reform TABLE OF CONTENTSIntroduction. I. The Public Interest in Helping People Understand and Use the Legal System Outweighs the Unsubstantiated Claims That Self-Help Law Books and Software Are Dangerous II. The Court Below Misconstrued the Texas Unauthorized Practice Statute to Ban Self-Help Law Books and Software III. Enjoining the Sale and Distribution of Quicken Family Lawyer Violates the First Amendment Rights of Texans to Buy, Read and Use Self-Help Law Books and Software ConclusionTABLE OF AUTHORITIESFaretta v. California, 422 U.S. 806 (1975) Florida Bar v. Brumbaugh, 355 So. 2d 1186 (Fl.1978) In re Thompson, 574 S.W.2d 365 (Mo. 1978) In the Matter of Marilyn Arons, et al., Supreme Court of Delaware No. UPL-4 (1996) Kansas v. Schneider, 573 P.2d 1078 (Kan. 1978) Kleindienst v. Mandel, 408 U.S. 753 (1976) Moore v. City of Kilgore, 877 F.2d 364 (1989) New York County Lawyers Ass'n v. Dacey, 282 N.Y.S.2d 985, reversed, 234 N.E.2d 459 (N.Y. 1967) New York v. Winder, 42 A.D.2d 1039 (N.Y. 1973) Oregon State Bar v. Gilchrist, 538 P.2d 913 (Ore. 1975) People v. Landlords Prof'l. Serv., 215 Cal. Rptr. 548 (1989) Perry Education Ass'n v. Perry Local Education Ass'n, 460 U.S. 33 (1983) Police Dept of Chicago v. Mosley, 408 U.S. 92 (1972) Red Lion Broadcasting Co. v. FCC, 395 U.S. 367 (1969) Simon & Schuster, Inc. v. New York State Crime Victims Board, 502 U.S. 105 (1991) Smith v. Oregon Bar, 942 P.2d 793 (9th Cir. 1997) State Bar v. Cramer, 249 N.W.2d 1 (Mich. 1976) State ex. rel. Indiana State Bar Ass'n. v. Indiana Real Estate Ass'n., 191 N.E.2d 711 (Ind. 1963) Virginia State Bd. of Pharmacy v. Virginia Citizens Consumer Council, 425 U.S. 748 (1976)Statutes Texas Gov't Code Ann. § 81.101(a) Texas Gov't Code Ann. § 81.101(a) Texas Gov't Code Ann. § 81.101(c)Other Commission on Multidisciplinary Practice, Report to the House of Delegates, American Bar Association, Chicago, Illinois (1999) Commission on Nonlawyer Practice, Nonlawyer Activity in Law Related Situations: A Report with Recommendations, American Bar Association, Chicago, Illinois (1995) Consortium on Legal Services and the Public, Agenda for Access: The American People and Civil Justice -- Final Report on the Implications of the Comprehensive Legal Needs Study, American Bar Association, Chicago, Illinois (1996) D. Rhode, Policing the Professional Monopoly: A Constitutional and Empirical Analysis of Unauthorized Practice Prohibitions, 34 Stan. L. Rev. 1 (1981) J. Turner, T. Rudy & E. Tannouse, Do-it-Yourself Law: HALT's Guide to Self-Help Books, Kits & Software (HALT, 1999)IntroductionThe key issue presented in this case is whether new technologies will be harnessed to provide accurate information about the legal system to the millions of Americans who are presently denied access to courts. There is an overriding public interest in helping people understand and use the legal system, which can be achieved by preserving the availability of self-help law books and software such as Quicken Family Lawyer. The judicial branch has a responsibility to adapt to technological changes and innovations. In a sweeping opinion that mischaracterizes self-help legal software as constituting a "cyberlawyer," the District Court for the Northern District of Texas has failed to fulfill this responsibility. Amicus curiae HALT -- An Organization of Americans for Legal Reform further submits that the court below misconstrued the Texas unauthorized practice statute when it enjoined the sale and distribution of Quicken Family Lawyer, a misreading which the state legislature addressed through emergency legislation signed into law earlier this month. The judicial branch has the authority to regulate the conduct of lawyers and those who hold themselves out to be lawyers, not publishers, software programmers or private citizens who wish to purchase their products. Self-help law books and software make it clear that they are not acting as attorneys, and consumers who buy and use these products know that they are getting an aid for their use, not a lawyer. The District Court's misguided judicial activism misconstrued the Texas unauthorized practice statute to enjoin the sale and distribution of self-help law books and software. Finally, as a national, non-profit public interest organization HALT has long provided self-help legal materials to its members, and advocated reforms that empower consumers to handle their own simple and routine legal needs. The First Amendment protects not only Americans' right to publish and speak, but also our right to read and listen. The rights of over 2,800 HALT members in Texas to buy, read and use self-help law books and software, such as Quicken Family Lawyer, are being violated by the decision below. I. The Public Interest in Helping People Understand and Use the Legal System Outweighs the Unsubstantiated Claims That Self-Help Law Books and Software Are Dangerous.According to the American Bar Association, each year thirty-eight million low and moderate income households nationwide need legal help, but are denied access to the American civil justice system.(1) Today, cost and complexity remain the largest barriers that prevent access to the civil justice system. Tens of millions of low and moderate income Americans cannot afford to hire a lawyer when they have a legal problem, and millions of others are intimidated by even the prospect of trying to deal with the system on their own. One way to reduce costs is to increase consumer choice and encourage the development of innovative methods of delivering legal services.(2) Empowering citizens with self-help books and software that allow them to handle routine matters pro se is a critical innovation that can help expand access.(3) Recently, more sophisticated software packages, which include legal forms on compact disks and a state-of-the-art user interface, have greatly improved the resources available to help consumers deal with their legal needs pro se.(4) Unfortunately, unauthorized practice statutes have been used by Texas and other states to attack these and other innovations that expand citizen access to the civil justice system.(5) These abuses of unauthorized practice rules to constrain consumer choice of alternatives to hiring a lawyer represent vestiges of an era when the organized bar acted, sometimes unlawfully, to protect lawyers' economic interests rather than to further the public interest in having an affordable and accessible legal system. Ironically, this kind of abuse of unauthorized practice statutes has been rejected by responsible lawyers and jurists since the late 1960s. In 1967, the New York Bar charged that the publication and sale of Norman Dacey's book, How to Avoid Probate, constituted unauthorized practice. The New York Court of Appeals disagreed, ruling that writing and publishing self-help legal materials and forms is not the practice of law. New York County Lawyers Ass'n v. Dacey, 282 N.Y.S.2d 985, reversed, 234 N.E.2d 459 (N.Y. 1967). The impact of this kind of abuse of unauthorized practice rules upon those who lack access to the legal system is starkly illustrated in an unauthorized practice proceeding now pending in Delaware. In 1996, the Delaware Disciplinary Counsel filed a lawsuit against Marilyn Arons for providing services, free-of-charge, to parents of disabled children in "due process" educational placement hearings in that state. Incredibly, the complaint against Arons did not come from the parents or children she serves, but from lawyers from the school districts that have lost numerous cases to her. In the Matter of Marilyn Arons, et al., Supreme Court of Delaware No. UPL-4 (1996). Another example of a recent misuse of unauthorized practice rules to reduce access to the civil justice system involved independent paralegal Robin Smith, who helped some ten thousand people prepare their own uncontested divorce papers for nine years without one consumer complaint, but whose service was shut down by the Oregon State Bar. Smith v. Oregon Bar, 942 P.2d 793 (9th Cir. 1997), cert. denied, 118 S. Ct. 1055 (1998). The hallmark of this recent wave of abusive unauthorized practice cases is that they are victimless -- there is no consumer who has sought the intervention of Bar authorities. Rather these cases have been spawned by attorneys in adversarial positions, unsupervised Bar Committees or individual lawyers who think they are losing business to less expensive alternatives. In fact, Stanford University legal historian and past president of the American Association of Law Schools, Deborah Rhode, found that only two percent of complaints against non-lawyer practice involved any claim of injury. Policing the Professional Monopoly: A Constitutional and Empirical Analysis of Unauthorized Practice Prohibitions, 34 Stan. L. Rev. 1 (1981). Finally, in this case, Appellee concedes that no user of Quicken Family Lawyer has sought its intervention or claimed that they were misled by the product, despite the fact that an estimated 100,000 copies have been sold in Texas since 1990 (Brief for Appellant, pp. 5, 7-8 n.4). It is patently absurd to claim, as does the Texas Unauthorized Practice Committee, that its abusive actions somehow further the public interest by protecting consumers. Invoking unauthorized practice statutes to attack perceived economic competition, or to silence an adversary who cannot afford a lawyer, demonstrates that this public service rationale is being grossly perverted. Americans have an undisputed right to handle their own legal problems pro se. Faretta v. California, 422 U.S. 806, 832 (1975) (fundamental constitutional right of all persons to represent themselves in court proceedings); see also, Florida Bar v. Brumbaugh, 355 So.2d 1186, 1192 (Fl. 1978). To meaningfully exercise that right, citizens need access to books and software products that help them understand and deal with the civil justice system. Particularly in light of the current crisis, where literally millions of Americans have no viable alternative to handling their legal matters themselves, amicus curiae HALT submits that there is an overriding public interest in protecting the availability of self-help law books and software. The decision of the Court below ignores this critical public interest and denies Texans access to innovative computer software, because it offers them too much help. This perverse result cannot be allowed to stand. II. The Court Below Misconstrued the Texas Unauthorized Practice Statute to Ban Self-Help Law Books and Software.The judicial branch has the authority to regulate the conduct of lawyers and those who hold themselves out to be lawyers, not publishers, software programmers or private citizens who wish to purchase their products. The Texas unauthorized practice statute explicitly recognizes that its provisions must be construed consistent with this authority of the judicial branch (see Texas Gov't Code Ann. § 81.101(b)). The District Court erred in concluding that self-help law books and software, which are nowhere enumerated in Section 81.101(a), could nonetheless be included in its definition of the "practice of law." Just as the judicial branch's authority is rooted in its power to regulate the conduct of lawyers and those who hold themselves out to be lawyers, the Texas unauthorized practice statute limits its reach to services or advice "requiring the use of legal skill or knowledge," i.e., those that lawyers are specially trained to provide. This qualifying language is critical -- it reflects a commitment to ensure that members of the public are actually getting services from a lawyer when they believe they are getting services from a lawyer. Self-help law books and software provide information that the reader or user decides how to use; they do not purport to give the advice or services that require the use of legal skills of an attorney. HALT's most recent Citizens Legal Manual, Do-it-Yourself Law: HALT's Guide to Self-Help Books, Kits & Software, reviews the major products in this field. Virtually every product contains explicit guidance about its limitations and the difference between pro se self-help and hiring a lawyer. For example, products from Nolo Press typically include the following plain language explanation (See, Do-it-Yourself Law, review of 101 Law Forms for Personal Use, p.19): We've done our best to give you useful and accurate information in this book. But laws and procedures change frequently and are subject to differing interpretations. If you want legal advice backed by a guarantee, see a lawyer. If you use this book, it's your responsibility to make sure that the facts and general advice contained in it are applicable to your situation.Similarly, products from Block Financial typically include the following explanation (See, Do-it-Yourself Law, review of Kiplinger's Home Legal Advisor 98, p. 23): The user acknowledges that Block Financial Corporation, The Kiplinger Washington Editors, Inc. and Teneron Corporation do not practice law or provide legal advice, are not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services and are not rendering such professional services with regard to Kiplinger's Home Legal Advisor. The user acknowledges that laws vary from state to state and change over time. The final documents should be reviewed by a lawyer before use. Where a document is to be negotiated with another party, the user should consult an attorney prior to the start of negotiations. Use of Kiplinger's Home Legal Advisor constitutes agreement to the foregoing.Finally, products from Appellant Parsons Technology typically include even more extensive explanations (See, Do-it-Yourself Law, review of Quicken Family Lawyer 99 Deluxe, p. 26): This program provides forms and information about the law. We cannot and do not provide information about your exact situation. For example, we can provide a form for a lease, along with information on state laws and issues frequently addressed in leases. But we cannot decide that our program's lease is appropriate for you. Because we cannot decide which forms are best for your individual situation, you must use your own judgment and, to the extent you believe appropriate, the assistance of a lawyer.Family Lawyer is designed to provide information and forms you may find helpful. It is provided to you with the understanding that Parsons Technology is not engaged in providing legal advice or other professional services. It is not intended to replace legal advice and if legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent and qualified lawyer or other professional should be sought. Self-help law books and software make it clear that they are not acting as attorneys, and consumers who buy and use these products know that they are getting an aid for their use, not a lawyer. Consumers are not being deceived. Despite the explicit explanations that Quicken Family Lawyer "is not intended to replace legal advice and if legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent and qualified lawyer or other professional should be sought," the Court below enjoined its sale and distribution in Texas. In doing so, Judge Sanders acted like a legislature and added a new prohibition to the Texas unauthorized practice statute, which goes far afield from regulating lawyers and those who hold themselves out to be lawyers. The Texas State Legislature promptly acted to correct this misguided judicial activism by passing House Bill 1507.(6) On June 19, 1999, Governor Bush signed this legislation, which amended the Texas unauthorized practice statute by adding the following subsection (c) to Texas Gov't Code Ann. § 81.101: In this chapter, the "practice of law" does not include the design, creation, publication, distribution, display, or sale, including publication, distribution, display, or sale by means of an Internet web site, of written materials, books, forms, computer software, or similar products if the products clearly and conspicuously state that the products are not a substitute for the advice of an attorney. This subsection does not authorize the use of the products or similar media in violation of Chapter 83 and does not affect the applicability or enforce ability of that chapter. While this corrective legislation should curtail future abuses of the Texas unauthorized practice statute, this Court should similarly correct the District Court's mistaken interpretation of that statute and remand with instructions to vacate the injunction against the sale and distribution of Quicken Family Lawyer. III. Enjoining the Sale and Distribution of Quicken Family Lawyer Violates the First Amendment Rights of Texans to Buy, Read and Use Self-Help Law Books and Software.The First Amendment protects not only Americans' right to publish and speak, but also our right to read and listen. Virginia State Bd. of Pharmacy v. Virginia Citizens Consumer Council, 425 U.S. 748, 756-57 (1976); Kleindienst v. Mandel, 408 U.S. 753, 758 (1976); Red Lion Broadcasting Co. v. FCC, 395 U.S. 367, 386 (1969). As this Court recognized in Moore v. City of Kilgore, 877 F.2d 364, 370 (1989), "A listener's interest enjoys protection just as the speaker's interest finds refuge behind the shield of the First Amendment." The District Court action enjoining the sale and distribution of Quicken Family Lawyer unconstitutionally abridges the First Amendment right of Americans to read and use materials that help them deal with the legal system. The District Court's decision is predicated on the content of Quicken Family Lawyer; if this product addressed health questions, income tax preparation, accounting, home improvements, car repairs or any of the myriad of other topics covered by popular self-help books and software, the court would never have attempted to apply the Texas unauthorized practice statute. But in this one area -- legal self-help -- the District Court decided that the content of a publication should be suppressed and issued an injunction that restricts Texans' ability to purchase and use that product. Such a content-based regulation of protected speech is subject to strict judicial scrutiny. Police Dept. of Chicago v. Mosley, 408 U.S. 92, 95, 99 (1972); Simon & Schuster, Inc. v. New York State Crime Victims Board, 502 U.S. 105, 116-17 (1991). The District Court's action cannot survive such scrutiny, because it is not narrowly tailored to advance a compelling governmental interest. See Perry Education Ass'n v. Perry Local Education Ass'n, 460 U.S. 33, 45 (1983). As detailed in Section II of this brief, the interest in protecting the public from being misled is already being met by the careful and thorough explanations included in self-help law books and software. Moreover, as detailed in Section I of this brief, there is another governmental interest at stake here -- facilitating access to the civil justice system for all Americans. Clearly informing consumers that they are not receiving the services of a lawyer when they use self-help law materials is a far less restrictive alternative to a wholesale ban on these products. The State of Texas and the District Court cannot require more without violating the First Amendment. Self-help law materials inherently express a point of view -- that consumers should be empowered to handle their own simple and routine legal needs. Since its founding twenty-one years ago, amicus curiae HALT has worked to advance this straightforward proposition and overcome the resistance to reforms that facilitate access to the civil justice system. During the past two decades, court after court has been persuaded that this point of view is correct and recognized that self-help law materials are not the same as personal services provided by a lawyer. See Oregon State Bar v. Gilchrist 538 P.2d 913, 916 (Ore. 1975); State Bar v. Cramer, 249 N.W.2d 1, 9 (Mich. 1976); Kansas v. Schneider, 573 P.2d 1078, 1079 (Kan. 1978); In re Thompson, 574 S.W.2d 365, 369 (Mo. 1978); State ex. rel. Indiana State Bar Ass'n. v. Indiana Real Estate Ass'n., 191 N.E.2d 711, 717 (Ind. 1963); New York v. Winder, 42 A.D.2d 1039, 1040 (N.Y. 1973); People v. Landlords Prof'l. Serv., 215 Cal. Rptr. 548, 552 (1989); Florida Bar v. Brumbaugh, 355 So.2d 1186, 1194 (Fla. 1978). The District Court not only painted over this important distinction, it also failed to grasp the fact that Quicken Family Lawyer and other software products represent the fruit of the self-help law movement's advocating that consumers should be empowered to handle their own simple and routine legal needs. The decision below is thus the antithesis of a content-neutral regulation; it is a suppression of a specific point of view, the most pernicious form of governmental interference with First Amendment rights. On behalf of consumers in Texas and nationwide, amicus curiae HALT urges this Court to vindicate Americans' First Amendment right to buy, read and use self-help law books and software. ConclusionFor the foregoing reasons, Amicus Curiae HALT, Inc. -- An Organization of Americans for Legal Reform respectfully requests that this Court reverse the decision of the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, vacate that Court's Order enjoining the sale and distribution of Quicken Family Lawyer, and re ET (12/5/99; 8:14:33MDT - Msg ID:20297) dragonfly My wife has reminded me of the tune to which you referred. We have acopy around here somewhere but probably on an LP. I was told theother day I can buy one of these writeable CD players and copy by oldLP's onto CD's and eliminate the noise. Might have to think aboutdoing that."...they just pretend to be your friend.Smiling faces, smiling faces tell lies."ET ET (12/5/99; 7:56:50MDT - Msg ID:20296) dragonfly Hey dragonfly - how ya doin? You wrote in part;"But to get back to MC's remarks - What does he mean by "Considerablethought has been given worldwide to the ambitious project of designinga new financial architecture."??? How about the need to "...humanizeglobalization."??? Is that a backhanded admission of guilt?"His parting shot before he leaves? Socialism doesn't change, just the players out there advocating it. Here are a couple of paragraphs from the Winter issue of Mises Memo (www.mises.org);"Today the intellectual classes say a humane alternative is thesoft-socialism of British collectivism, New Deal economic planning,the regulatory and welfare state. But here again, the intellectualroots are the same. All these systems assume that the state should be society's organizing force, that private property must serve a socialbenefit or be confiscated, that lower orders of society must conformto centralized plans or risk being destroyed."Every sort of evil has followed from this assumption. For example,the idea of central banking is premised on the notion that a smallgroup of powerful government officials can set interest rates, control business cycles (versus create them), and manage the entire bankingsystem. The result has been incessant waves of financial crisis andcurrency depreciation. The regulatory state is supposed to protect us from every sort of danger but only ends up erecting barriers toeconomic progress. Vast resources have been expended in creating asocial-security state that saps social energy and produces nothinglike the security that comes with private property and privatesavings."You wrote further;"Or is Newspeak for the next phase of imposing one's will uponanother. Was it Isaac Hayes who sang "Smiling Faces", the ones that"..show no traces of the evil that lurks within."?? That is the IMF inmy book - whether from the left or the right perspective - as GeorgeWallace said - "Ain't a dimes worth of difference"."I've got a copy of "Smiling Phases" on an old Blood, Sweat & Tearsrecording which featured the lines;Smiling faces, going placesAnd if they bust you, You just keep on smiling through and through.And you'll be amazed at the gaze on their faces as they sentence you.I don't know if this is what you were referring to but it isanalogous.You wrote further;"My take on the IMF saying that it sees poverty as "the ultimatesystemic threat" is somewhat dark. To read between the lines - thecall for "solidarity" is required because it is already a foregoneconclusion that "...the targets are no longer attainable." Therefore"humanizing globalization ... will enable us to better protectourselves as a group against collective risks on a global scale." Boy,ain't that a mouthful! Who is "us", who is in the "group"? How aboutthis one - "Each country has now achieved sovereignty...". Who is hisaudience? What world do they live in?"Yes - first they plunge the world into poverty with their policies,then rather than admit their policies failed, attempt to re-institutethe same failed policies again under a new moniker. Well, their timeseems to be up. Statism is dying. RIP.Thanks for your insights dragonfly. Appreciated at this end.ET SteveH (12/5/99; 7:44:34MDT - Msg ID:20295) Rhody on lease rates www.kitco.com Rhody now talks about the significance of one month lease rates and its indication as to bank stability.Date: Sat Dec 04 1999 06:25rhody (@ Dabchick, your 6:47 on Dec 2. The 2.11% increase in) ID#410367:Copyright © 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedone month lease rates on Nov 29 lead to the present precipitous fall in pog. About one third of the increase came from the forward rate ( lending rate drop by CBs ) and two thirds came from the rise in LIBOR. I cannot comment on why interbank lending rates would rise, although usually this reflects a credit risk driven tightening for interbank transfers. My interpretation here is that the world financial system just got a little more unstable. The forward rates ( lending rates to bullion banks ) dropped. This must mean that the CBs intentionally added liquidity to the gold market. The bullion banks chose not to pass on any of the spread to borrowers, so one month rates rose. The above is what the numbers that you posted mean to me. The world gold market is opague, so I admit I am guessing here. For example, I have no idea what forces really drive inter bank lending rates ( LIBOR ) as I do not have access to the back rooms of international banks. My comments following the Nov 29 lease rate spike we more about the inevitable result of such one month lease rate spikes rather than their cause. A spike in one month lease rates ALWAYS tanks gold on that day or the next. Could it be that a speculative attack on gold occurs because LIBOR rises, despite the increased cost of borrowed gold, as the powers that be sense instability in financial markets and react to sell gold down lest a rotation occurs into pms as a safe haven? Bullion banks, on the other hand, were severely injured following the ECB Washington Agreement driven gold spike. Could it be that the drop in lending rates was an attempt by the CBs to restore profit margins to bullion banks, who subsequently passed none of the margins on to speculative borrowers, who never the less were forced to borrow at the higher rates because of lease roll overs? I heard yesterday that one bullion bank in Europe has been cutting back trade and laying off staff. I admit that all of this is perverse, and that I understand rather little of it. Rising LIBORs should act to raise the price of gold as lease driven selling should be made more expensive and gold liquidity made less. If there is increased interbank credit risk, then forward rates should rise, not fall, and that should drop lease rates not raise them. I do not know which end of this LIBOR/forward rate relationship is being manipulated, but my guess would be the forward rate. Yet forward rates accounted for only 1/3 of the lease rate spike. Perhaps we are approaching this question of gold prices and lease rate factors from the wrong side. If what I have said above is accurate, then rising lease rates should be positive for pog. Yet if one month rates rise, and the other terms do not, the pattern is the price of gold declines. So it may be that there are entities that react to lease rate fundamentals in such a way that they never are allowed to reflect in the price of gold. When fundamentals do not cause a change in reality, look to politics for the answer. Gold is political. A rise in LIBOR should have caused a rise in lease rates, and that should have turned off speculative shorting. It didn't, shorting increased. That's illogical. Therefore, the shorting was political, and not lease driven, except indirectly. Please accept my apologies for this late answer to your post, as I missed it, and only an email from my brother drew may attemtion back to Thursday morning posts. SteveH (12/5/99; 7:40:08MDT - Msg ID:20294) Rhody www.kitco.com Rhody believes that the NY Fed is stealing foreign account gold under they holdings:Date: Sat Dec 04 1999 07:45rhody (@ Dabchick: As an addendum to my earlier comments, and) ID#410367:Copyright © 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedassuming any of it makes sense, from where is the liquidity coming to tank the gold market? Some of it is coming from client states like Jordan and Kuwait but given the supply/demand deficit, these sources have to be stop gap. Canada has only about 50 tonnes left, so whence comes the liquidity, and by whom is the speculative attack led? My guess ( and it's only a guess ) is the New York Federal Reserve Bank. This is where much foreign national reserve gold resides for "safe" keeping. Since the early part of this decade, foreign CBs have been withdrawing this gold and moving it offshore. The drawdown amounts to about one third of the total. Assuming US Treasury gold has not been touched ( It would require an act of Congress to sell or lease this gold legally ) then the NY Fed and Middle Eastern ( oil ) gold seem to be the only remaining gold stockpiles remaining. I can't imagine the middle eastern oil interests helping out the Federal Reserve to keep the USD afloat, so I suspect the Fed has been dipping into foreign CB reserves held in the NY Fed to sell down POG. I further think that foreign central banks are aware of this and that is why there have been net withdrawls and a movement of gold offshore. A parallel to this is the movement of Warren Buffett's silver purchase off shore. It looks to me, that no significant bullion holders much trust the Federal Reserve Board, or the U.S. Government. Gold is political, and when the US dollar loses world reserve status, this is going to turn ugly in the truest sense of the world. FWIW, IMHO. Aristotle (12/5/99; 7:36:01MDT - Msg ID:20293) A thought for Hipplebeck about the comment-- "My opinion is that there is far more oil money being spent on weapons than there is on gold. After all, what good is having a bunch of gold if you cannot defend yourself from someone taking it away from you"Along your line of thinking, wouldn't there be nobody willing to sell them weapons because, after all, everybody else would be a potential aggressor? When you are too small to defend yourself against a whole playground of bullies, why waste significant effort entertaining a farce of self defense? It would be much more prudent to master the diplomatic arts and let each bully recognize that it is in his best interest to protect you from the other bullies. As the only fuel station in town, it wouldn't be too difficult to find something of common interest to all the bullies with which to build a diplomatic base and be too important to let fall into "enemy" hands. Just like Switzerland playing banker to the world, the Middle East plays the important role of fuel tank for the world. Hipplebeck (12/5/99; 6:24:30MDT - Msg ID:20292) oil and gold My opinion is that there is far more oil money being spent on weapons than there is on gold. After all, what good is having a bunch of gold if you cannot defend yourself from someone taking it away from you Hipplebeck (12/5/99; 5:38:01MDT - Msg ID:20291) after reading yesterdays postings it occurs to me;Isn't it just possible that the Washington agreement was done for the purpose of raising the price of gold so the IMF deal would be worth more? Journeyman (12/5/99; 5:33:00MDT - Msg ID:20290) Flogging The Great Flation Debate: The Final Chapter (I promise) In previous episodes, remember, it was discovered that there was great confusion amongst the people caused by ambiguous terminology. Further, clearing that fog, it could be suggested that Keynsians, conditioned to see increasing of money supplies as invariably stimulative, were effectively blind to business contractions resulting from the depreciation of monetary tokens sometimes caused by these very "stimulations." That is, Keynsians didn't normally consider that "stimulative" monetary token supply increases cause monetary unit depreciation and "Monetary unit depreciation (so-called "inflation") can cause deflation (economic contraction.)" . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . In today's final chapter (a very short one, I might add) I'll attempt to put all this together in a nice satisfying synopsis. (Please remember, though, I'm a journeyman, not a master.) . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . The SECOND way for "deflation" (unemployment and businesses shrinkage) to occur is a "tight" money supply. Tight money is normally attributed to failure to create and/or distribute enough currency tokens. Before it was abbrogated in 1993, such a "tight money" situation could be said to be produced by adherence to the gold standard. Especially since 1933, so-called "tight money" can produce the same effects that hyper-depreciation of money tokens (A.K.A. hyper-inflation) causes. Particularly, high interest rates (money shortages cause money rental fees to be high) discourage businesses from borrowing to expand. Further, not "enough" money in the hands of "consumers" prevents them from buying, so businesses shrink, laying off employees so there are fewer people with enough money to buy, which leads to businesses contracting even more, etc. The problem since 1933 is that because of the increasing degree of malinvestment that builds up as a result of stimulation, the potential effects of such contractions become much more severe. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . SYNOPSIS: Two different monetary conditions can lead to "deflation" (economic contraction). FIRST: A "shortage" of money theoretically caused by the gold standard, etc. SECOND: Too much money caused by over-production of money, etc.. Because the real-economy effects mimic each other so closely, the two causes may sometimes be confused. Historically, the "deflations" (business contractions) studied by the economists (Keynes, etc.) who's insights formed the basis of what was until recently taught in most economics courses, studied the pre-1933 business contractions. Not suprisingly, they concluded that these were caused by a SHORTAGE of money rather than an excess. In fact, with the gold standard in place, there was no possibility of "too much money" causing economic contraction, and in their defense, it wasn't reasonable to expect the Keynsians to understand "inflationary depressions" which were to them at that time, at best theoretical. . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . ADDENDUM: The pre-1933 economic events studied by the Keynsians, etc. were, despite perceptions to the contrary, relatively very mild. For example in the panic of 1873, 2.8% of banks failed; in 1884, .9% of banks failed; in 1890 panic, .4% failed; in 1893, 1.9%; in 1896, 1.6%; in 1907, .3%; and in 1914, just after the Federal Reserve Act was passed. .4% of banks failed. Contrast that with the approximately 50% of US banks that were unsound 19 years later in 1933 under the kindly ministrations of the Federal Reserve. {Gspan on "automatic" gold standard} . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . FINAL QUESTION: Which is, in the current (1999) context, the most likely type of economic contraction? Will our monetary tokens depreciate, or will they appreciate? . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ ._ . _ . _ . _ . _ . _ . Regards, Journeyman THC (12/5/99; 4:52:42MDT - Msg ID:20289) To Oro re Control of Oil Supplies Hi Oro!Pls take a look at this article:http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/specialreports/special24.htmIt is interesting to watch history to unfold......the ME nations want to follow a "united we stand" strategy, while Caesar wants to "divide and conquer." If Caesar fails in his peaceful strategy to divide them, will he leave when asked to do so?A US that no longer controls the ME oil may quickly lose global influence.......Cheers,THC Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.