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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/4/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

NoEyeSee(+_+) (2/4/06; 23:24:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 141350)
Ethanol Math........ forget it!!
If you consider the amount of oil used in growing the crops, harvest, transport and the amount of energy to remove excess amount of water from the grains......you have a negative return of energy!!

You input more petroleum than the energy equivalent of ethanol you will get!

OvS (2/4/06; 23:02:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 141349)
Pritcho.
My calculation, confirmed by
Shermag, was as follows:

The link to the Treas.gov
posted by Black Blade in
his msg # 141300 states:
that total reserve assets
were 65.6 billion dollars
less 11.0 billion gold
equ. 54.6 bil.currency res.

11 bil $'s divides by 42
gives you 262 mil.oz of gold.
262 times 570 = 149 bil.$
Now add 54.6 billion of
currency assets and you get
203.6 billion dollars total.







PRITCHO (2/4/06; 21:57:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 141348)
@Shermag - - Re TWO Faulty Calculations :)
Shermag (2/4/06; 09:58:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 141331)
Pritcho, On calculators and US reserve revaluation of gold
Ovs' and my calculator both concur on the over $200 billion reserve value if gold is revalued at $570. It is $203.6 billion to be specific
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have checked again & maintain that my original post (141311) is correct.A "simple" calculation was made based on the information posted originally by OVS.This was:

"If the gold in the US Reserve Assets would be valued at
570 instead of 42 the total reserve would be over 200
billion instead of 65 billion.
-------------------------------------------------
If the reserves at$42 oz are worth 65 Billion, then valued at$570 (13.57 times more) the reserves are 13.57 X 65 which equals reserves worth $882.05 Billion.

Please inform me wher I have made an error? - - anyone?




Liberty Head (2/4/06; 20:11:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 141347)
Don't Worry About Peak Oil,

Worry about gov't, suported by millions of angry idiots.
In a free market, peak oil would remedy itself with a minimum amount of pain. However, the truth is, we will never experience the free market solution. We will instead have the fascist gov't controlled "fair market" solution. Which is to say, there will be no solution at all. Since higher prices will not be allowed, we will rather have no oil for production and transport of essential needs.
Now would be a good time to store away some of those essential needs. Store away enough to share and trade.


Best Wishes


Cavan Man (2/4/06; 18:54:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 141346)
Graduating from USA-GOLD
(no worries about official sector gold sales)
Awesome; for a guy struggling with a mid-life crisis I am at complete (secular) peace. I have earned it right here at http://www.usagold.com. All this talk about checking in and checking out has me in a bit of a philosophic mood. However, I will be brief.

The bogeyman of potential official sector gold sales has been vanquished; he is a shadow in the breeze of current events. So much metal has already been mobilized; only forestalling the day of reckoning evolving with the THOUGHTS here. It is because of practical purposes that none remains to be "mobilized".

For now and the forseeable future, the sheer weight of $USD indebtedness prevents further offical sector sales. In fact and reason, the sick man of global monetary policy and infrastructure encourages official sector accumulation rather than distribution.

Until the Euro attains a predominant share of global settlement for vital commodities, do not expect the Euro zone to sell gold in excess of their WAII. Upon acceptance of the Euro (and/or Asian currencies)as a reserve currency(ies) par excellence, official sector sales will indeed resume. On that day and in the runup to same, the gold price will be MUCG HIGHER.

I have been a consistent buyer since 1999 here. I am a buyer still. I am hoping for orderly markets. If the TSHTF and it becomes TEOTWAWKI, neither gold nor dross will save thine arse. In the interim, I strive for holiness.

I'd like to thank Mike Kosares and everyone who has made this site possible over the years. I could not have achieved the knowledge and wisdom wrought here in public discussion anywhere in a formal educational dynamic.

All the best and cheers....CM

goldquest (2/4/06; 17:27:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 141345)
Checkin' In! (better late than never.)
Good to see BB, Rich and a all of the other old and new timers checking in!
Has anyone "seen" Uponroof?

wiley (2/4/06; 16:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 141344)
Gold Scrap Recovery
@Rad

Thanks alot for the links , I'm checking them out and what I see so far is very interesting. I don't like working w/cyanide and this gives me an alternative.

You can find gold in the damdest places. If there are any more scrap miners out there let me know how you get small quantities refined. Thanks all.

Nomad (2/4/06; 15:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 141342)
Ethanol Math
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16889.html

"I haven't seriously considered ethanol as a liquid fuels substitute lately, but today I was perusing some 'green' websites and became curious about the cost of the process. It turns out that the total USA corn production in a year is about 9 Billion bushels. Each bushel weighs roughly 56 pounds. More rough math indicates that it takes about half of a bushel of corn (26 pounds) to produce a gallon of ethanol. Current corn prices in the USA are a little over $2 a bushel, rather low historically, and govt subsidies run roughly $4 Billion per year (adding roughly 50 cents to the 'imaginary' corn price).

So here is the interesting part - what if we took EVERY bushel of corn grown in the USA and used it for producing ethanol. Well that means 9 billion bushels of corn become some 18 Billion gallons of ethanol (ignoring the energy cost of transforming corn into ethanol) per year which divided by 42 gallons per barrel = some 430 million barrels of gas equivalent. But ethanol has about 2/3 the energy equivalent of gasoline so now we are down to about 286 million barrels equivalent.

This is 14 DAYS of USA oil use (at 20 million barrels per day).

And ethanol is going to save the day how, exactly, again ???"

Goldendome (2/4/06; 14:12:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 141341)
Back home in Indiana
T-Bear: Yes, I woulda, shouda, couda, poured a few more $20 "Saints" into the storage chest!

Hey, all, what got to Hoosier? Sorry, but I missed any big conflict that erupted between him and anyone else here.

But reading back a ways, It looks like something had gotten to him. He'd been galloping around here like a mad bronc, that just had a saddle thrown on it's back for the first time, and finally-- just jumped right over the fence and has galloped away kicking and snorting.


Something in that Blanchard settlement really seemed to have burned his fuse! Now like most, I try to steer clear of legal issues if possible...But the one thing that I have learned in my few legal encounters over the years is this: That no matter who is right, the whole point of the process is about extracting the maximum amount of money possible from each side--endlessly if possible; a legal case, particularily if it goes to court, is like a lawyers annuity--you can pay month after month, year after year.

I don't know much about the case, didn't care to, didn't want to. But there comes a point where the monetary extraction, dribble, and general business distraction may become greater than the benefit of "winning". Sometimes, I think, "point made" in a draw, is probably a helpful compromise for the future, rather than banking all on "winning" at all cost, or risking all points made (possibly) by "losing" in a legal battle. Often times, a legal battle comes down to finding middle ground to settle on...and if your point is made, if it gets your opponents attention, if it makes the other side aware that you're watching, things are recorded and brought out into the light...then often times, that was the point of the argument afterall.

Even though the case "Blanchard vs. Banks" was settled without a clear victor, there is a point to be made, that perhaps we've all benefitted by the exercise, if indeed; it has changed behavior of the manipulators.

tejbear (2/4/06; 13:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 141340)
My view...
This is how I see it..

The following is my understanding for the devaluation of the dollar. The dollar's long standing as a world trade unit is coming to an end. A world trade unit, as described in Murray N. Rothbard's book titled "WHAT HAS GOVERNMENT DONE TO OUR MONEY" goes through ascendancy and a decline. The decline is composed of both a de-industrialization and the loading of foreign debt. Reads of the forum are all too aware of the US's decline in blue & white-collar jobs, the trade deficit and the amount of foreign debt being borrowed by the government and citizens.

The world trade unit comes to an end when the creditors believe that the debtor has become a bad credit risk, i.e. England in the fifties. At that time, the British Pound was dropped, and was eventually replaced by the US dollar. The value of the British Pound dropped around 50%, resulting in an increase of the cost of living in England by 50%.

So, for all of the Greenspan bashing, Greenspan was dealt a "losing" hand, as the dollar will eventually collapse, like the British Pound, regardless of who is running the Federal Reserve.

The normal cycle of a world trade unit was altered when in the 70's, when the US basically defaulted on paying its debt to foreign countries with gold, and was able to use its IMPERIAL WORLD POSITION and get the world to use fiat currencies.

GOLD & SILVER became obsolete.

Shift forward thirty years and the degree of de-industrialization / job exportation in the US is reaching "critical mass". What else is left to export? Event the historical titans of US business GM and Ford are slowly entering the abyss, (bankruptcy in 2 or 3 years?). The US Current Account Deficit is growing exponentially, saving in the US are non-existent, while the vast majority of Americans are blissfully unaware of our dire predicament thanks to the government's SPIN MACHINE.

The US's losing hand is about to be exacerbated by the convergence of other "nasty" factors that will multiply the intensify of the collapse. These factors include: the retirement of the baby boomers (resulting in a considerable drop in consumer spending in the US), an increasing number of destructive storms caused by increases in global warming, alienation of allies because of the fraudulent war with Iraq (and if the Dubya has his way, with Iran) resulting in an in hostile attitude with foreign "creditors", unfunded liabilities of the US government now totaling over $40 trillion and last, maybe most significantly, the end of limitless cheap oil (peak production in ~ 2000 will contribute to growing shortages, impacting the US harder than any other importing country).

I am afraid that the world will be going through a rough patch in the near future, unlike any in our recent past. Given the extremely poor leadership that has usurp power in the US, it is dubious any good decision-making will be used to minimize the depth of our decline.

Since the dollar will eventually collapse, safety can only be found in gold and silver. I suggest collecting something with numismatic value as this type of bullion wasn't confiscated by FDR in the 30's.

Good luck to all.
The Bear


Humble Pie (2/4/06; 13:06:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 141339)
gold
Spend the paper ,Keep the metal

Goldendome (2/4/06; 12:59:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 141338)
Flatliner, Supply shortage on Gold futures deliveries

Flatliner: You bring up the $64,000 questions, or whatever delivery of a gold (silver too for that matter, maybe too- copper, eventually) is worth.

I think that we have discussed here several times in the past, the scenario that you present.

Many have felt that it will eventually happen [that more metal is called away from the futures storage than can be delivered] and at that point, I believe, consensus had it, that it would bring an end to some of those markets. What would be the point of having them, if you really couldn't use them to hedge your delivery price in the future, if needed or desired???

We can't know for sure what will happen--what type of game--new or old-- the governments might try to play or dream up to best protect some vested interests.

We will keep an eye on the metals-precious and otherwise (all are becoming more precious). Should the dollar breakdown precipitously, or the bonds, or some event bring about a gold spike---Or heck, why not all three at once! ...I think that if I had some of those contracts and an overabundance of $'s residing in treasuries, I'd take some deliveries, too!

A point: I think we are seeing run-ups in all the commodities. Are the same parties moving the farm product futures as the metals and oils? Could be. But the thing about the farm products-- shortages are usually from one year to the next. Production can quickly be ramped up all over the world to meet those prices, if there's money in it. The same is not at all true of the metals. Once we have a shortage in the price and it persists...exploration and development fall off...production falls off... and maintenance and upkeep on facilities existing falls away. This is where we are now after twenty years of metals depression. It will take a while to get production up to meet new demand.

Personally, I think that those invested in Gold and Silver futures, if they have large holdings of U.S. $, as the Asians do, will be wise to take delivery on a least a portion of those contracts. A stealth accumulation program now appears to be underway...and that's the way anyone would want to do it if they want more in the near future. You wouldn't want to spook the market higher yourself-- at least, not until you were ready to do so!

Some here have pooh-poohed the metal ETF's, but they are thus far, proving to be a "hole" so to speak, where a lot of the available precious floating around is being buried. This is making apparent, perhaps, physical shortages and driving prices still higher. The fact that large pension and mutual funds able to invest only in shares are now buying these shares in ETF's is driving the demand for more of these metals to be accumulated by the ETF storage "holes".

Some worry, "well what happens if the ETF's decide to sell?" Why worry about it! If they sell, they sell. There's nothing new about big holders selling some of their holdings from time to time. But as long as people around the world are worried about paper currencies, debt, inflation, deflation, oil, hurricanes, pensions, health care, Medicare, SSI, the price of tea in China, killer bees, fire ants, yada-yada ---- Who the heck wants to sell?????

Flatliner: Look for more metal to be taken off the futures markets. One will lead to the others. Look for metals to all move higher, as Asians by the millions move from mud, stick, wood, cardboard box hovels, into houses that need copper wiring, metal plumbing and pipes, concrete ----they will throw down their bicycles for cars made of metal, powered by gasoline, that run on streets made of asphalt, etc. At least some of the wealth now being held as dollars, will also be traded for Gold and Silver as a non-inflatable, by quantity, store of wealth and protector of future purchasing power.

Best, G-dome


Goldendome (2/4/06; 12:01:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 141337)
@Goldilox -- General observatin of late on the FSN broadcast.

Goldi: I haven't listened to the Zapata portion yet, this time, but will shortly. From last appearance he was a rather colorful character.

In a broader sense, as long time listeners of the FSN broadcast, how do the shifts in outlook strike you? Specifically, since Barbera has joined the show, he and Jim are sounding like playback recordings of each other. Both (har,har, har) called a GOLD top in late December, you recall, with the price barely over $500. Since then, both IMO, have almost seem apologetically wishing that it would occur, so they could have been right. At the time, they both indicated that they had liquidated large portions of their holdings and would be looking to buy back at somewhere around $470. [Now who knows for sure, maybe they still will at some point. But, any who sold at that point have missed $60 or so on the move.]

I think I mentioned it here a month ago, that the impression that I was getting (and still am, do to their recent pumping of, get this-- the technology sector) is that to an extent, these guys are turning into shills, front running the opinions they espouse on the program.

Sorry to say, that I find myself fast forwarding through many segments of the show now.
The analyst from Alabama--haven't listened there for weeks. That guys a conundrum wrapped in an enigma, weekly. He's going to be in "non-confirmation" till he dies.
Barbera? What a waste of time.
The weekly guest from Chicago is good, because he actually has a separate thought process.
The oil analyst from Dallas is usually good, and at times, has some good observations.
Dave Morgan? Ok, but has a tendency not to want to disagree with Jim, even when he should.
The guy that I really miss not being on the show is Jim Willy. He wasn't on there too long on a regular basis, as I think Jim quickly realized, that this guy was a hellofalot smarter than he!
The 3rd hour wrap-up segment? Unless they have a guest or two, why bother? Usually, its just a Jim diatribe, repeating for the third time what he's already said twice before somewhere in the program. With pre-arranged questions being floated out by his co-host (who I do enjoy because of his humor and understated knowledge.)

Goldi: That's my rant on the FSN broadcast. I've been keeping it to myself now for a few months as I have been displeased with it's (at least to me) change in tenor (good to get things out in the open sometimes). Am I overly critical here?

Flatliner (2/4/06; 11:49:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 141336)
@Goldendome #141334
When I listened to this phone call yesterday, I also took note of the futures comment that you mention below. Before joining this forum, I would have thought nothing about it. But, if it's true ‘that all paper gold will burn’, it might stand that all ‘paper commodities’ will burn and the actions that are going on in the futures market are worth investigating to see if there is smoke.

To state the obvious, for every commodity trade in the futures market, there is a buyer and seller. To go with this, there have been postings galore here as to where the shorts are coming from. The real question is who are the longs? And what is their motive for not taking delivery? Could it be that Don gives us a clue as to the longs and their motive?

When I listened, I immediately thought that if China really believes that there is a direct link between futures contracts and physical delivery then when they actually call in the supply, the western system will renege – just like what Nixon did years ago with gold and the US dollar.

Its very interesting. Could it be that we will see a *nearly exact* repeat of what happened to the dollar convertibility to gold from foreigners? But, this time, it will be futures convertibility?

Every delivery month for gold, we watch as the longs roll over. Those who have claim, are not taking delivery. Will they? Is there need? Or, could it be, that there is political motivation to roll over? With Gold, there is huge political motivation to roll over, but what about everything else?

For those waiting for an event, watch closely the futures delivery process for if the longs make a claim, the ‘treasury’ (the futures system) will baulk in front of the entire world. That, IMHO, will be the point at which the physical market separates completely from the derivatives market.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (2/4/06; 11:25:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 141335)
A world of gold at your fingertips...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html





Goldilox (2/4/06; 11:12:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 141334)
George "Zapata" Blake
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
For those who enjoyed, or may have missed Jim Puplava's interview with George "Zapata" Blake over the holidays, he is back today on FSN.

Goldendome (2/4/06; 11:00:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 141333)
Ned: Continued thanks for first bringing this site to our attention.
http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp

We have found Don's weekly call to consistently be an insightful look at the markets. Often times, from a little different angle than what is being more commonly observed. I think we are fortunate to be able to listen in to his "call" to the well healed clients. (I only wish that they would keep previous weeks "calls" up on the website, also. Often, I would enjoy going back to listen to some previous week's material. I generally try to listen to each show more than once, as it is.)

Another point made in this weeks call that I think that we should mention and haven't to this point, was a topic brought up about 20 minutes into the call. Don made the point that indications in stock market activity show that money is moving out of stocks and industries that compete with China and Asian producers, and into stocks of companies that supply and sell to Asian and Chinese producers.

Don continued: There was a theory, that based on the action of the futures markets in oil and the metals, where there has been a change from a situation of deep "backwardation" [spot month higher than outlying months] to now, where the futures curves are flatter with the out months right up there with the spot month-- Is this a sign that China is using it's vast supply of dollars to buy the commodities currently needed, and also, to buy the futures on those commodities for future delivery when needed? And in the future then, to use those dollars to eventually take the commodities off of the futures market?

If you put it together then, since they will take delivery of the commodities in the future [or not] this is a way to use their accumulated dollars to lock in future supplies-- and their only risk, is the credit risk of the United States Treasuries.

So, what they can do, is not to change the apparent nature of their foreign reserves --because they still hold most of the dollars in treasuries and various asset backed agency securities. But what they have now, is a call on many of the commodities that they will need in the future to keep their industrialization moving ahead.

Don, summarizes by saying, that if this is true, its a fascinating change in thinking and behavior and further helps to show why things just may be different now -- and those who feel that nothing has changed in the economic cycles, power, and markets -- will continue to be surprised this time around.

Henri (2/4/06; 10:37:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 141332)
Black Blade
Perhaps we have Farfel (DC) to thank for the rise in POG.
Certainly we have all tried to do our part from this side...perhaps he was able to do more from the other side.

Checking In MK

Shermag (2/4/06; 09:58:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 141331)
Pritcho, On calculators and US reserve revaluation of gold
Ovs' and my calculator both concur on the over $200 billion reserve value if gold is revalued at $570. It is $203.6 billion to be specific.

Cavan Man (2/4/06; 09:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 141330)
MK's Unintended Corollary IMHO
Physical gold is for having and holding and everybody should have some. Gold equities are for trading.

Jing Zu (2/4/06; 09:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 141329)
Check in Day
Hello Friends,

Well, daily I check USA Gold and I have made many purchases throughout the last 4 years. It is nice to have this site available to so many. I have read and learned from the many regulars. I do not post that often because I am not near as up to date as most of you. I have won a couple of times when we have the guessing contest. That is always nice.

The gold rush that has been going on these past few months is a welcome site. I remember the beginning of "05" that the predictions were around $500/ounce and these were so close to the mark. This years conservative estimate is around $800/ounce. I am sure that we will see these figures and more. These days are unstable in the world and we better heed to what has happened in history throughout the ages. Get GOLD!

Silver appears as if it will increase a little more than Gold will this year. I have been thinking of buying this precious metal, but the larger amounts (size) are harder to hide.....

Thank you Michael and Jonathan for your site.

Take care and may God have some bearing on your lives..

Jing Zu (Gold)

MK (2/4/06; 09:16:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 141328)
The Gold War in Germany
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8c59dc2c-945a-11da-82ea-0000779e2340.html
An article published in yesterday's Financial Times underscores the complexities of the gold market, and points up that there are really only two divisions amongst the world's movers and shakers when it comes to gold -- those who believe in it and those who don't.

That article, which appeared under the headline "Berlin and Bundesbank at odds over gold sales," tells the story of the German Finance Ministry's desire to liquidate part of Germany's gold hoard and the Bundesbank's desire to hold on to it. Too often when we analyze events from a gold perspective the tendency is to color countries with a broad brush and say for example: France is pro-gold; Netherlands and United Kingdom are anti-gold, etc.
When we make generalities like that, we remove from the table two important considerations:

1. There are elements within any country that are either pro- or anti-gold

2. The policy of a nation or central bank can change unexpectedly when the political winds blow

The situation in Germany is a case in point. We can all remember the contest we had here at the Forum (January 11, 2004) when we poked fun at then Bundesbank president Ernst Weltkeke penchant for concocting one reason after another to sell the German gold. ("Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because. . .") Well, for those who believed that EW was a lonesome hawk when it came to gold sales, and we were among a minority of lonesome doves, it now comes to light that those in Germany who push for gold sales didn't go their merry way along with the former Bundesbank president.

To the contrary, they've resurfaced and coalesced in the present Merckel Finance Ministry. The Finance Ministry states that the motivation for selling German gold is a trust fund, the interest from which would be used to finance "research and education." One wonders why the Finance Ministry wouldn't recommend a bond float -- a methodology that would get them to the same place without giving up the hottest performing asset on the planet. But as most of us by now, at least those of us who visit these pages, there's always something a bit more dynamic to the gold sales mantra than something as mundane as financing "research and education."

In my view, gold sales have everything to do with returning bullion bank gold deposits to those demanding their metal back (other central banks, large private investors, etc.) and little to do with the purposes the politicians publicly avow.

Bundesbank president Axel Weber has drawn a line in the sand on German gold sales. A representative from Bundesbank, the above-mentioned article states, reiterated that the Finance Ministry measure "cannot be allowed to interefere with the Bundesbank's management of currency reserves." "[Bundesbank] has also threatened to bring the issue before the European Central Bank, whose statutes prohibit government interference in the management of central bank currency reserves. The article ends with this: "The move, bank officials said, would only reinforce the bank's determination to stick to its guns."

The fact that Bundesbank is digging in its heels on the gold issue has become a major element in gold's recent rise. Following the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank cave-ins, it represents the turning tide in the way major central banks view their gold reserves, and sends a message to those short gold that they can no longer depend on categorical support from the central banks. Short covering could very well be the real reason for the quick recoveries in gold in recent weeks whenever it has dropped. It could also be the reason for JP Morgan's and Credit Agricola super bullish forecasts over the past week.

______


A link to this important article is appended.




Whitewaterwoman (2/4/06; 09:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 141327)
If you're giving up...
...Hoosier Goldbug, can I have your gold??? :)

Never quit trying !!!!!


MK (2/4/06; 08:29:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 141326)
Check-In Day to continue through weekend. Table Round veterans, lurkers and newbies: Are you out there?
"Check-in Day" has been a humbling event for us here at the Castle on two levels. First, it is terrific to hear from so many and know you are still with us. For every individual who posted there are probably at least 100 who read the forum but don't post. Second, the compliments directed toward me, this forum and the gold firm behind it were unexpected. It wasn't my intention to fish for a compliment, but the many kind words are an inspiration. Many thanks to those who extended their best wishes. . . .Please keep in mind, it is all of you who make this forum what it is. People come here to gauge what the public is thinking on a number of gold related issues and they want to hear it from you.

As for "Check-in Day" itself, let's go with it over the weekend so that those who only have time to come here on Saturday or Sunday can let every one know they're here with the rest of us and maybe say a few words about gold.

Thanks again.

______________

Thursday's post:

Every once in a while, we have a "Check-in Day," wherein all the Table Round veterans post a note to tell us they are still around, and lurkers and newbies can simply say they're here watching and reading. It's good for those who take the time to post their thoughts and opinions here to know that there are people reading. It's important for all of us to know that there are others of like mind out there who appreciate this venue.

I thought today might be a good day for that. We haven't done it in awhile. You might add how you feel about the gold market at present for the general readership, but its not mandatory.

So, we invite you to say hello and extend our thanks in advance. . . .


Gondolin (2/4/06; 07:07:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 141324)
Checking in, not out
Been a daily (sometimes for hours at the expense of what I was being paid to do lurker and very occasional contributor since 2001. Believe I am now safely set for life. :) Thanks to all the posters, most still current, some missed, for the eduation and insight.

Most of us I believe do our best to share our 'forbidden knowledge' with others. As with most of the great games in the history of this world, the powers that be, those with the muscle to flex, the means to do it,have had history written how they wanted it, had education directed where they want it, managed and exploited the masses where they want them, ala the divide between rich and poor in the Islamic world, ala the new testament and the holy roman religions' repression of the gnostic teachings, ala TPTB, Gold Cartel, Demopublicans, Tony Bush and co.

Its not a war that can ever be won. Its eternal'some would say like the battle between God and Satan, Good and evil, truth and lies. Lets face it, everything is shades of gray.Depends how you look at it, whether there are storm clouds or blue skies, or how much light you can shine on it. Thats where this forum stands out as wheat amongst the chaff, or maybe one could say as gold amongst paper.

Rantings and resentment that gold has not exploded to the heavens in light of the recent developments today I find amusing. What use would all of us being rich beyond dreams be if everyone else is in abject poverty and misery. I trust more have the opportunity to be enlightened and jump aboard the gold bull express before it peaks.

I trust TPTB will manage this process slowly to where the value of gold against fiat should be. In these people we must (unfortuneatelty) trust, though oft times they show this is undeserved. Forums for discussion such as this are rare and valuable, and provoke slowly the questions that will become mainstream slowly as they filter throufgh the media and the masses. What was discussed only here years ago is now mainstream. This is true power.

Keep up the good work.

Thanks to all, (and especially to USAGOLD for my shiny 1/10 eagle, yes, another happy guesser!!)

Goldilox (2/4/06; 06:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 141323)
Pensions, Dividends, and Royalties
While we watch resource-rich nations defrock multinationals of their ownership (royalty) tights, it is interesting to watch the corporations respond. They continue to move revenue centers offshore to avoid US taxes and rapidly reduce dividends and pension obligations to squeeze the American treasury, worker, and investors to make up the difference.

More interesting will be whether the corprorate oligarchs, losing ground in Russia and Latin America, will continue their domination of US politics, or also lose ground to growing western populist movements. Another "New Orleans - FEMA debacle" might elicit "martial powers," but it also might be the straw that breaks the camel's back for the current anti-populist western leadership.

Ned (2/4/06; 06:02:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 141322)
@ GoldenDome
Thanks for the excellent review of Don's call this week, beautiful summary.

Sherry Cooper was Don's guest. Just as a point of interest, this woman is an ultra-conservative, notice how she squashed the idea of some hidden agenda in the non-reporting of M-3 in March. (I actually had a little laugh at that.) Anyway I was more than a little shocked at her call of $600 this year and $800 within 2 years. That's quite a statement out of her, believe me.

Anyway, the theme this week seemed to be the "de-coupling" of gold (at least in the US) with the notion of inflation and it is a must 'hear'.

I also watched the segment from John Ing as referenced by Chris Powell. Also very good, Mr. Ing talks about the eventual breaking of the "old $850 mark" and a (derivative) "accident" this year, possibly breaking the $850.

Thanks for mentioning Don's call, have a golden weekend.

Goldilox (2/4/06; 05:59:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 141321)
Taking Russian cash and high-tailing out of gold
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/junior_mining/880053.htm
snip:

LONDON (Mineweb.com) -- A couple of weeks ago we wrote about ZAO Polyus and mentioned its relationship with Celtic Resources. The Vice President of Polyus commented in his meeting with the Association of Mining Analysts that Celtic and Polyus, which were at that point in a joint venture with respect to the Nezhdaninskoye gold mine in Yakutia, Russia, were agreed that the top priority was to bring the project on stream, that "all other issues" were subject to negotiation and that he believed the two companies would find common ground. These issues, as outlined below, related to just who owned how much of what.

Celtic now says that it has agreed to sell 20% of the South Verkhoyansk Mining Company ("SVMC"), which is the holder of the license for Nezhdaninskoye, for US$80 million cash. The purchaser is the Interros group, which is one of Russia's largest private investment companies and a controlling shareholder in Polyus (and Norilsk Nickel). KM Technologies (Overseas) ltd., which is an investment vehicle for the Interros Group has made the cash offer, which is conditional on Celtic withdrawing all legal actions concerning the disputed ownership in SVMC and thus in Nezhdaninskoye.

Over and above the cash payment, Celtic expects to receive the repayment of the principal component of the debts owed by SVMC to Celtic, which total approximately US$10 million. The US$80 million will be held in escrow conditional upon the withdrawal of all Celtic's legal actions pertaining to the Nezhdaninskoye ownership, which is expected to occur by March 31st this year.

-Goldilox

It seems the battles over who "owns" gold-in-the-ground are coming to head in both Russia and Latin America. Perhaps not unlike the battles in Russia and the ME over who "owns" oil-in-the-ground. It seems the foreign powers have a little different take on Dubya's "ownership society."

Goldilox (2/4/06; 05:50:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 141320)
Gold Cartel
@ Hoosier Goldbug,

Though I tend to agree with your assertions, I fail to see how running and hiding from the status quo benefits anyone. Do you really think TPTB will target your stash any less if you decide to just "play dumb" to their manipulations?

Goldilox (2/4/06; 05:47:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 141319)
Gold, platinum surge to highs
http://business.iafrica.com/markets/gold/879296.htm
snip:
The spot price of gold as well as the prices of platinum group metals, platinum, palladium and rhodium, traded to long-term or all-time highs on fund buying and bullish sentiment towards precious metals, traders and analysts said.

At 5pm, gold was quoted at $572.75/oz, up $3.40/oz from the previous close. In January 1981 gold fixed at $602.25/oz.

"The momentum higher in gold continues. The consensus in the market is that gold will trade to between $600/oz and $800/oz in 2006. The asset relocation into gold continues," said Switzerland-based MKS Finance's Frederic Panizzutti.

There were two key factors driving gold, which was its insurance value against uncertain and unexpected events as well as an increasing role as an investment asset, he added.

For the foreseeable future gold could target $580/oz, followed by $600/oz, with support at $550/oz, Panizzutti said.

"The precious metals complex continues to trade in recent high ranges with positive sentiment in the complex intact, with inflationary concerns stoked by high oil prices providing support to the complex.

Iran in the spotlight

"The current geopolitical situation also remains tense, another factor supporting gold prices, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) holding an emergency meeting today over reporting Iran to the United Nations Security Council," London-based Barclays Capital analysts wrote.

"The firm start in the US might be the catalyst needed for a test of $575/oz, particularly with the IAEA due to reach its verdict on Iran which could mean sanctions and would not only heighten tension in the Middle East, but could create inflation concerns if oil output was curbed," UK-based TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore wrote.

"We believe the strength of the physical market is vitally important for 2006; even though gold is rising on speculative and investment buying, at some point there will be a reversal of this trend and gold will correct," London-based UBS analyst John Reade wrote.

"The level at which physical demand emerges to support the metal will then form a base for gold to make fresh gains," Reade added.



HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/4/06; 05:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 141318)
LAST POST!
Sir Randy, Site Master:
Please pull my registration and posting priveleges as I will not be needing them anymore! It might relieve some of the clutter on your server and make managing this site a little easier. As of today February 4, 2006, I have joined the elite group of individuals (ANOTHER, FRIEND OF ANOTHER, BELGIUM, ARISTOTLE, and far too many to name) who no longer post here because they have read/know the writing on the wall, far greater than I even understand that NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE AND IN THE END THE GOLD CARTEL IS GOING TO WIN IT ALL. WHATEVER I THINK HAS BECOME TOTALLY IRRELEVANT AS I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO ENGAGE THE WAR ON A DIFFERENT FRONT WITH A CALCULATION OF A DIFFERENT/SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME THAN PREVIOUS ENGAGEMENTS WITH THE ENEMY. If the GOLD CARTEL can win in the face of the all the incriminating evidence against it in a FEDERAL COURT and proven by GATA and now a LARGE FRENCH BANK, they can beat any kind or form of opposition it comes up against, even the physical market. They will just take it all away from the GOLDBUGS, as the ongoing possible confiscation argument expouses.

Goldilox (2/4/06; 05:39:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 141317)
More on oil imports
This is just one data point, but looking at the chart for November, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are both coming in lower than previous averages, while the others are rising to make up the difference. Is our "oil addiction" problem already revealing itself in reduced import levels from two major suppliers?

Simmons says the Saudi fields are in decline, and we know that Chavez is increasing his customer base by signing delivery contracts with China and India.

Goldilox (2/4/06; 05:29:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 141316)
November 2005 Import Highlights: Released on January 23, 2006
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html
snip:

Total crude oil imports averaged 10.265 million barrels per day in November, which is an increase of 0.885 million barrels per day from October. The top five exporting countries accounted for 67 percent of United States crude oil imports in November and the top ten sources accounted for approximately 87 percent of all U.S. crude oil imports.

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Nov-05 Oct-05 YTD 2005 Nov-04 Jan - Nov 2004
CANADA 1,776 1,493 1,619 1,561 1,622
MEXICO 1,658 1,468 1,536 1,604 1,603
SAUDI ARABIA 1,267 1,180 1,438 1,631 1,499
NIGERIA 1,163 1,094 1,049 1,032 1,085
VENEZUELA 1,009 909 1,235 1,237 1,289
ANGOLA 641 501 452 402 306
IRAQ 572 563 532 629 658
COLOMBIA 281 111 158 123 143
KUWAIT 273 271 210 324 245
ALGERIA 265 216 230 240 217
ECUADOR 264 273 270 237 229
UNITED KINGDOM 229 219 237 156 232
EQUATORIAL GUINEA 107 41 71 67 63
NORWAY 103 145 124 105 150
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 70 74 62 32 52

-Goldilox

By rough estimate, ME sources are about 19% of total crude imports, with Saudi Arabia totaling about 12%. Iraq is now about 5%, and Iran is not even on the list. Venezuela, Dubya's more local political pain in the side, also contributes around 10%. There is also a chart of total petrolem imports on the page, which I assume also includes refined procucts.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/4/06; 03:21:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 141315)
MY CONTRIBUTION!
Does purchases of physical gold from 1978-this week 2006 in the high six figure range, from various retailers including CENTENNIAL PRECIOUS METALS and BLANCHARD & COMPANY constitute a valuable contribution to the GOLD fight or not??????????????????????????????????????????? I mean, I took it off the table from the GOLD MANIPULATORS, for worthless paper, and they can't get it back!!! Even if they (BLANCHARD & COMPANY) would not have received any monetary damages, but just would have made good on their claim to force BARRICK to COVER ALL THEIR SHORTS/HEDGED POSITIONS THAT THEY HAD, AND WHICH THEIR ACCOUNT EXECUTIVES WERE TELLING THEIR CLIENTS, INCLUDING MYSELF, THEY WERE SEEKING TO ACCOMPLISH ULTIMATLY, I could have lived with that settlement. That would have boosted the price to reasonable levels, based on 1970 dollars. REMEMBER, THEY HAD ALL THE EVIDENCE. BUT A WORTHLESS PROMISE/PUBLIC STATEMENT????? Furthermore,if I cannot believe the President of the United States, why would I believe a GOLD CARTEL entity who announces their intent in further/future trading/hedging business activity when they have been engaged in illegal activities all these past years and verified by GATA and now a BIG FRENCH BANK ??????????????????? DO PEOPLE REALLY BELIEVE THINGS LIKE THAT IN TODAY'S WORLD?????

Ray 1 (2/4/06; 03:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 141314)
Ethanol
FINDING BALANCE
The anti-ethanol crowd is exposed
as fraud
(from Agriweek for 02/06/06)
In certain circles ethanol distilled from cereal crops looks like a serious contribution to the solution to several problems, including energy renewability and increasing non-export demand. In others it is a fraud that requires more energy to produce than it contains and is an economic hoax that is sustained at the request of the farm lobby by government subsidies. New research published in the respected journal Science on Jan. 27 seems like the last word in establishing that using ethanol is worthwhile on anti-pollution grounds and that producing it gives a net energy gain.

The study is by a group of professors at the University of California-Berkeley and the Goldman School of Public Policy. It analyzed six previous studies into ethanol's energy balance. Included were incompetent and biased but widely-quoted papers by Cornell University entomologist David Pimentel, contending that the energy needed to make ethanol exceeds the energy it contains, and that burning it creates more pollution than it avoids.

Pimentel included every cost he could think of, down to the energy needed to make the farm equipment that grows the corn that goes into ethanol. Amazingly, he did not assign any energy credit to the by-products of ethanol distillation, which are distiller's grains and carbon dioxide. The new study found that when these values are accounted for ethanol use displaces 95% of equivalent gasoline use and greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. Among previous work analyzed is U.S. Department of Energy research which estimated that a 10% ethanol blend reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 19%. The study noted that new technology to convert cellulosic material to ethanol holds even more potential.

Grain used to make ethanol does not disappear. A bushel of corn weighing 48 lbs. releases about 18 lbs. of ethanol, 7 lbs. of water and 1 lb. of carbon dioxide. The rest is distiller's grains which enter the same livestock feed stream as corn. This year the U.S. ethanol industry will use about 1.6 billion bushels (63 million tonnes) of corn but will return about 24 million tonnes into the livestock feed supply in the form of distiller's grains.

Many ethanol plants simply release the carbon dioxide from the fermentation process into the atmosphere, but increasingly it is being recovered for commercial purposes. Carbon dioxide prices are falling because of fast-rising ethanol production, making possible new uses which were previously too expensive. One is to inject the gas under high pressure into old oilfields, reviving or greatly increasing their crude oil output. (E-mail users click here for a summary of the Science article).

Ethanol figured in the state-of-the-union address last week by U.S. president Bush, who said that an American goal should be to reduce oil imports from the Middle East by 75% in the next 20 years. Ethanol will help but can't fill the gap. Current ethanol production using over 15% of the U.S. corn crop equals 2 to 3% of U.S. gasoline use. If all corn currently exported were diverted to ethanol that tiny percentage would barely double. There is far more potential in using crop and other cellulose residue that at present has no commercial value. Even so, nobody says ethanol is a substitute for oil: it's an infinitely-renewable supplement.
==========================================================
Consider:
- later in this decade, over 20% of US corn crop will go for ethanol production. The carryover in US corn stocks and subsequent exports will end
- all foods (cereals, meats) derived from corn will face substantial price increases (grains are only commodity that has not taken part in recent boom)
- higher food prices will make it hard to mask inflation --------> higher gold prices.

Best regards
to All



The Invisible Hand (2/4/06; 02:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 141313)
Moral dilemma
http://news.inq7.net/breaking/index.php?index=2&story_id=65115
GATA is happy with Cheuvreux.
In the Philippines, many people are living on less than two dollar a day.
The Philippine peso is linked to the dollar of the US of A.
What will happen to the Philippine people once the dollar is no more?

As Harry Hazlitt put it in his book "Economics in One Lesson" (1962):
The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

Difficult to do when guv'mint has screwed the whole globe. Maybe it's worth to solve the problem once and for all. But, what do you do in the meantime with all those people whose very existence depends upon the greenback?

Is it the Asians versus the Africans?

link:
AFTER STAMPEDE
TV network cancels anniversary celebration of noontime show
First posted 12:26pm (Manila time) Feb 04, 2006
INQ7.net, Agence France-Presse
SNIPS
(UPDATE) ABS-CBN Network has cancelled the first anniversary celebration of its noontime show after over 70 people were killed and scores were injured in a stampede at the stadium where the program was to be held.
+
He said Saturday's show would mark the first anniversary of the program, and that the show was offering two top prizes of one million pesos each -- a fortune to the 40 percent of Filipinos who live on two dollars a day or less.

Chris Powell (2/4/06; 00:06:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 141312)
Netherlands business TV network notes Cheuvreux report
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3641
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