USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

USAGOLD Menu BAR

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

(Discussion Forum Hall of Fame)

(The Gold Trail)

("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view

Month Day Year
Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

(View Today's Discussion) (View Previous Day's Discussion) (View Next Day's Discussion)

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/4/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Noble1 (1/4/05; 22:08:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 127927)
Who's Who at the GLD ETF?

TC, Belgian, Ari, YGM, Boilermaker,

You have all shown keen interest in following and deciphering this ETF thing as have I. But I am not yet convinced that it is a negative conspirancy.

Ari,

In your msg#: 127648 You conjecture:

"...I'm still the one holding the tonnage comfortably in the same vault, allocated to the ETF that me and my brotherhood buddies at the Bank of New York and UBS are able to control." And Boilermakers' #127917 response that he would be interested in tracking the same SNs in and out of the fund;

I offer the following:

The key word is "allocated". Allocated=owned and identified. At this point, the gold in the ETF is all allocated, audited, and as Boilermaker points out-it's serial numbers are published and can be tracked. I challenge anyone to identify this much allocated, auditable, publically identified physical gold anywhere else.

Given that many large bullion holders prefer to store their gold in secure depositories and most depositories hold more than one persons's/entity's physical gold, I would expect to see the same gold moving from one holder to Another as they trade. And since when do we have this transparency to track SNs? Since the introduction of GLD. Personally, I don't think the BBs or CBs like us seeing real gold held or moved around.

GLD has chosen HSBC as it's primary depository/custodian.
Since GLD is sponsored by the World Gold Council, I think that it's members are basically it's controllers. The members of the WGC are miners/producers-not bankers. Therefore, I think that the BBs and CBs may try to be GLD manipulators, but I don't think that they are it's controllers. Miners are interested in promoting their product, gold, for consumption thus increasing demand and, hopefully, price, given the limited supply. I know this wasn't always the case over the past 1+ decades but even now Barrick is conforming. I do believe that there has been BB-CB coordination/manipulation, as outlined by GATA, that has provided metal to the market to absorb dollars and limit the expected rise in the POG as investors move out of fiat and into PG. They attempted to hide the current weakness in fiat by suppressing the POG. The CB benefited by the support of fiat, the BB benefited in the carry trade, the miner/producer benefited by obtaining an immediate and premium(?) price for his product. This appears to be coming to an end as they run out of physical. Winding down/elimination of hedge books. WA1 and WA2 (CBs defecting). GLD and it's identifiable stock of PG?

With respect to GLD, the main players are:

1) The Sponsor: The WGC miners/producers.

2) The Trustee: The Bank of NY; responsible for the "shares" held in the trust.

3) The Custodian(s): Today HSBC---Tomorrow could be your second cousin's dead grandmother.

4) The "Authorized Participants": I take to be BBs and other major gold holders/insiders/billionares.

5) The investing public: Mom and Pop, IRAs, 401Ks, pension plans, etc.

So who is with us?

I think #1 and #5.

Who is against us?

A portion of #4.

Who is neutral?

Hopefully #2 is just kind of a watchdog for the shares.

Who is left?

#3-As I said in my msg: #127253-they are the "ugly". The weakest link allowed by the sponsors. It may be the sponsors were forced to accept this in order to become listed!?

To be continued.

Noble1

mikal (1/4/05; 20:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 127926)
Personal property protection is gold. Get you some.
Inflation, land-grabs as designated in Executive Orders and Emergency War Powers and taxes of various kinds are the modern wealth confiscation, not our common, cherished gold.
U.S. Deep Storage Gold designated by the Treasury Dept. is hard wealth, whether leased or not. No need for the U.S. Mint's newly promoted Eagles, nor Maple Leafs, old coins or any private bullion. It IS STORAGE gold:
* Federal lands to be opened or leased for mining "strategic minerals"

* Gold in vaults including NY Fed,
in the unaudited Ft. Knox and others

* Resource-rich land and mines targeted for takeover

* Windfall profits taxes, capital gains taxes

By "confiscating" gold the US would scare gold trading overseas and to antique shops, pawn shops, coin shops and shows, flea markets, jewelry stores, barber shops, coffee houses and more.
(A low profile and common sense protect one's rights and family from unscrupulous, nosy people whether governments or private tricksters who would steal or unnecessarily tax private gold collections.)
If the US attempted confiscation alone, our international credibility would be irreperably mauled, trade and sorely needed investments would be unthinkably wounded- bonds, the dollar, equities, capital investment, etc.
It's like assuming gold is not the world's premier reserve currency, even though full-color brochures produced by the U.S. Mint, have for years touted gold's history, safe-haven function and value in embarrassing detail to smart and well-heeled investors alike, who were willing to take the time to pick it up and read it.
All gold trade in U.S. borders would be openly invited to flourish not just in the places listed above, but in every black and back-door market existing or conceivable, offshore to the Carribean, Europe, Shanghai and all points in between.
Today's unprecedented strength of fundamentals and suppressed energy, combined with political will, can allow gold's price in every currency to rise so quickly, most will fail to commit to a significant stake. This POG would "confiscate" a lost opportunity from those with little means or having insufficient interest in traditional money and hard assets. This, combined with the resource, tax and inflation "confiscations" alluded to above, should be more than enough "booty" to keep the revenuers busy for awhile.

Cavan Man (1/4/05; 20:40:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 127925)
PS...(Chris)
Fascism begins with a flag bedecked SUV :>)

Cavan Man (1/4/05; 20:32:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 127924)
Confiscation
....by Executive Order (Hello!)

Chris Powell (1/4/05; 20:12:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 127923)
More on the possibility of confiscation
Of course Flaccus is right that the U.S. government
could change or try to change its position on
gold confiscation. But it IS notable that, right now,
the government says it lacks the authority to
confiscate gold, and thus, presumably, any attempt
at confiscation would require new legislation. Thus
the government's admission and the need for new
legislation would seem to make any confiscation
more difficult, which is progress.

It's arguable but since gold has long since been
formally demonetized and an absence of gold from
the channels of trade today would have no bearing
on the volume of money, there would seem to be
no legal rationale for another gold confiscation
-- or at least not the rationale offered in 1933.
Further, today's Supreme Court is a lot more
favorable toward property rights than it was
when FDR was appointing the justices.

Yes, maybe the government could turn fascistic
overnight, but there is no more danger in that
to gold and gold owners than there is danger that
the government might start imprisoning citizens
because of their ethnicity or religion or that
it might start shutting down newspapers. A
fascistic government would be a danger to
EVERYTHING, not just gold.

When the fiat hits the fan, the little stashes
held by gold owners in the United States probably
will be the last thing the government worries about.

In any case, anyone who thinks, as Flaccus implies,
that the right to own gold is impossible to
maintain and thus not worth defending would seem
to be wasting his time at the USAGold Forum.

No one owns gold because he is a defeatist
about individual liberty. One owns gold, in part,
because he is willing to take the risk of defending
liberty -- at least his own liberty. And surely
giving the Treasury Department a little discomfort
by putting it on the record about its lack of
authority to confiscate gold is a risk worth taking.

Ag Mountain (1/4/05; 19:54:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 127922)
@ChrisPowell @Treasury
I'm sure GATA guys don't need my advice to don't let yourself be so easily put off your guard. Mark Twain already wrote the last word on the subject.

"No man's property is safe while Congress is in session."

They still meet every year, don't they? Revising old ones and passing more new laws is just about the only thing they do. Where do you think the authority suddenly came from when the government took bullion actions against our own dads? Congress reps sure as heck weren't all out there on the streets tolling the bell beforehand that seizure authority had just been mustered with the stroke of a few pens. And so our dads were home resting when maybe they should have all been busy using their heads.

It's good not to let Congress make you afraid of gold but it's good to be smart about it too. You can do just about anything a wrong way but with a little trying you can find a better way. Maybe some of our dads did better than others, hmmmmm?

Flaccus (1/4/05; 19:21:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 127921)
Confiscation

Well, that's a load off my mind. I won't worry about it anymore now that some low level functionary from the government told me its not the law anymore. Somehow I knew that. Sarcasm aside, I wonder what kind of a letter you would get if the president issued an executive order (as Roosevelt did in 1933 during a banking crisis) telling us to turn it in. Why do I believe he would quote a different statute to GATA? I have a hard time believing that anyone from GATA would swallow that one.

Chris Powell (1/4/05; 18:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 127920)
Treasury Department tells GATA that it has no authority to confiscate gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/2726
Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/4/05; 16:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 127919)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

U.S. gold futures fell but settled above a two-month low on Tuesday while silver hit a three-month nadir, on a second day of fund liquidation in precious metals due to a U.S. dollar rally, dealers said.

Prices found buying support at lower levels though, with London and Tokyo players back in the metals markets after New Year's holidays. COMEX February gold ended down 50 cents at $429.20 after moving from $431.30 to $424.80.

"Clearly it is a dollar rally" that hit gold after it had been at high levels at year-end, said Graham Leighton, vice president precious and base metals at Societe Generale.

The dollar rose on short covering after a series of record lows against the euro at the end of 2004. It last hit $1.33 per euro, up more than 3 cents from last week's all-time low at $1.3667.

Analysts were unsure if the dollar's rally would hold, however, as the focus turned to the December U.S. jobs report due Friday.

"It's hard to read this market at the moment," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank. Over the longer term, however, market watchers were in agreement that gold should push higher again.

"The fundamental view of the market has not changed in the past two days. We are still expecting gold to do well over 2005," said Victor Flores, senior metals and mining analyst at HSBC Securities Inc. in New York.

"A lot of this market's movements are closely correlated with the U.S. dollar, and the dollar's strength so far this year has sparked a large portion of the selling we've seen in gold. But we are still expecting more dollar weakness in 2005 because the U.S. economy's fundamentals have not changed, so gold should have an all right year in the end," he added.

----(see url for 24-hr international economic newswire, market prices)----

HEADLINES:

Dollar starts 2005 with a bounce, fueled by Fed view -- interactive investor

Fed helps dollar but won't alter longer-term trend -- Reuters.co.uk

Fed Says Rates Too Low to Curb Inflation -- Reuters - Business

Fed committee's fears of inflation drive stocks down sharply -- Lincoln Journal Star, Nebraska - Business

US stocks hit by inflation concerns -- Australian Financial Review - Market Wrap

Dow ends down 99 on inflation concerns -- Alaska Journal of Commerce

Bush Administration Begins Search For New World Bank President -- Dow Jones Newswires

TownCrier (1/4/05; 15:55:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 127918)
Fed helps dollar but won't alter longer-term trend
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh45515_2005-01-04_22-17-29_n04609432_newsml
NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The dollar extended its New Year rally on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve gave a clear signal that U.S. interest rates are headed higher, but the potential for further gains does not alter the fact the currency is still in a long-term downtrend.

Anecdotal evidence suggests dealers are still not placing outright bets on the currency strengthening but instead continue to unwind the over-extended bets built up in recent months that drove the dollar to record lows.

In short, the dollar's near-term picture is brighter, while its longer-term outlook, with record U.S. external deficits and their funding looming large, remains bleak.

...In releasing the minutes from its Dec. 14 meeting, when it raised rates by a quarter percentage point for the fifth consecutive meeting, the Fed could not have been more blunt in telling the market where rates are headed.

"Even with this action, the current level of the real funds rate target remained below the level it most likely would need to reach to keep inflation stable and output at its potential," the minutes read.

-----(from url)-----

Beware the inflation. Choose gold. And when you do, please choose USAGOLD.

R.

Boilermaker (1/4/05; 14:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 127917)
TC, Belgian, Ari - ETF Gold Holdings
Thanks for the reminder about Ari's post of 12/22 and I do remember reading it. Wasn't it James Turk who was checking the serial numbers on the bars and found some duplicates? Perhaps someone could keep track of the SN's of the bars coming in and going out of the ETF to see if they show up multiple times. If the same bars come in and go out of the ETF holdings it would support Ari's theory that the ETF gold is just borrowed from unallocated accounts. I have never doubted the purpose of this fund, to divert investor demand for gold from physical form to paper derivitive.

Druid (1/4/05; 13:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 127916)
Streaming Currency Data
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/graph/liverealtimequotes.asp

Druid: Streaming data in the forex mkt.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/4/05; 13:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 127915)
Get yourself started off on the right foot...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

TownCrier (1/4/05; 13:54:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 127914)
Need gold? Great selections, great deals.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
Call the friendly folks at USAGOLD-Centennial for intra-day price quotes.

Owning gold is hassle-free -- you don't have to set up an account. Just pick up the phone, discuss your needs, and your physical gold will be put into the 'pipeline' for fulfillment of your order and delivery to your door. It's as easy as picking up the phone and dialing the following toll free number:

1-800-869-5115 ext. 100

You'll speak with MK, George, Jonathan, Marie, Jill and/or Jamie... and you'll likely be very glad you did.

Randy

TownCrier (1/4/05; 13:41:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 127913)
Hi Federal_Reserves
What's your take on the ease at which fed funds are being provided by the Fed?

By way of background for anyone trying to follow along, conventionally the Fed is to look at the market's prevailing fed funds rate as a barometer, against the FOMC's policy target, to determine whether or not the trading desk should tweak liquidity to help banks have the reserves needed for biweekly requirements -- the commercial trading of which occurs on the aforementioned fed funds market. Traditionally the holiday season drain of cash from reserves to fill shoppers' and partiers' wallets is offset by the Fed's creation of temporary funds through open market operations providing liquidity within the fed funds market. After the holiday it is traditionally expected that the Fed's bulge of additions can largely be allowed to run off as the money previoiusly in transit becomes settled again in bank accounts, providing aggregate reserves among those institutions on levels near again to the pre-holiday levels.

Sometimes the Fed actively drains funds (rather than passively draining via run offs), but we are not seeing that. The provision of funds at rates below the FOMC target, even if only to partially match maturities, is telling a story of low-profile credit accommodation and easy money that should be of at least passing interest to all dollar-system participants. Hyperinflations begin as softly.

Choose gold. Here today, here tomorrow.

R.

Topaz (1/4/05; 12:56:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 127912)
@TC...another PoV.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=
The PoG is indicating where DX "should" be. (alt 1.17 or 85ish)
The behemoth multinats are repatriating Q4 overvalued alt Currencies like theres no tomorrow.
Rather than ramp up DX, triggering a cascade of stoploss trades and the like, the Fed "adds".

Gandalf the White (1/4/05; 12:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 127911)
Can you "read" this Chart ? <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Ua12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G
"WHEN" both the Slow STOCHASTICS and the MACD perform the next "CROSSOVER" --- it will SOON be time to yell ---
"TO THE MOON, Alice !" (for the small stocks)
<;-)

Federal_Reserves (1/4/05; 12:24:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 127910)
TownCrier> In fact the FED reduced the level off outstanding
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.asp

Repo's by 2billion today from 33billion to 31billion removing liquidity from the holding tanks of the NYSE banking system.

24billion in repo's expire on Thursday.

This is an astounding amount.

It will be interesting to see if they decide to withdraw the holiday cash even more.

Gandalf the White (1/4/05; 12:23:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 127909)
NOT to WORRY !! --- Just building a BIGGER "UP-FLAG" !! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PHTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
The GOLD P&F Chart is showing some RED !
<;-(

TownCrier (1/4/05; 11:40:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 127908)
Boilermaker, ETF gold flows
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/22200412/default.html
On several topics, including this one, there was a fruitful discussion between Aristotle and Belgian that began on December 22nd and was probably not seen by very many due to thin holiday traffic.

I bookmarked the exchanges and will provide for your convenience the part related to the ETF gold item along with a url as mentioned below.
________________________
Belgian (12/23/04; 04:46:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 127647)
Question

Can someone explain me how the GLD-ETF manages it, to increase/decrease its holdings of physical gold with tonnes per short period ? Please. TIA. How is the physical gold coming in and out ?
________________________
Aristotle (12/23/04; 05:49:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 127648)
ETF Gold flux -- some simpleton thoughts of mine shared with B-man

Belgian, if I were behind my desk at HSBC tasked with smoothing operations on behalf of my bullion banking LBMA brotherhood, if I did my job well it would be only in the rarest of instances that my presence would be felt in the open market as a seeker of physical Gold. Instead, that is most of the time, to "get" the Gold needed for the ETF coffers I'd tap into our bank's various unallocated pools of Gold deposits through ultra cheap Gold loans, reassigning the various available bars of "free agent" Gold deposits over to the allocated ETF account. And then, when I need to dishoard some of those allocated ETF tonnes, I'd simply reverse the process and pay down a corresponding tonnage of my loan.

It's a pretty slick scheme for me and my brotherhood because, as the lending agent for the unallocated accounts, I'm not going to be as worried about an illiquidity risk of low reserve status on those accounts when I can see that I'm still the one holding the tonnage comfortably in the same vault, allocated to the ETF that me and my brotherhood buddies at Bank of New York and UBS are able to control.

Offering the ETF was a clever way for us to divert possible Gold buying interests away from explosive open market style Physical demand, and keeps it comfortably in our own house where we can safely reassign unallocated deposits into allocated lists and back again. That's millions of dollars that we now don't have to worry about blowing like a gale wind upon our house of cards. We've tamed the wind by keeping it within our books. We can do this because like we talked about earlier there aren't many people here in the States who are conditioned to know the difference between real Gold Wealth versus a derivative account bearing a dollar sign.

It's so easy, but people can't figure it out. If it's heavy and yellow, it's reliable Wealth. If it has a "$" on it, it's an accounting device, a derivative, a vital step away from real wealth.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
________________________

To visit those two days in the archive, click the url to get you started at the earlier of the two days.

R.

TownCrier (1/4/05; 10:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 127907)
Fed again adds cash at sub-FOMC rate
What's the genuine meaning of a target fed funds rate as public policy when the trading desk tasked with implementation walks a looser route?

Today, as the commercial market in fed funds was trading in line with the FOMC policy target of 2.25 percent, for the second straight day the Fed's trading desk sent a more accommodative signal, along with fresh billions, and intervened in the open market at significantly lower rates.

This morning via two-day repurchase agreements the Fed provided a fresh injection of $10 billion to all interested banks that were offering Treasury collateral at rates as low as 2.15 percent. The Fed averaged 2.154 percent for the total $10B open market operation.

The easy provision of reserves by the Fed, coming atop a seasonal period when flows of holiday cash now ought to be flowing back to swell the reserves of our nation's commercial banks thus rendering the intervention otherwise unnecessary, leads me to believe this extra ease in policy implementation is likely an emergency response to various unspoken financial dislocations stemming from the South Asian tsunami.

R.

TownCrier (1/4/05; 10:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 127906)
'Gold Forecast 2005'
http://www.usagold.com/business/cpm/amk/clientlettermk1305DD.html
Michael Kosares, author of the hot-selling book, "The ABCs of Gold Investing - How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold", has made immediately available to all USAGOLD visitors his important first Client Letter of the new year in which he puts forth his forecast for gold in 2005.

Click URL above, and then follow the link within the Client Letter.

R.

Belgian (1/4/05; 08:06:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 127905)
@ Boilermaker
Ari has already been answering your request for help...remember ?
----
Whilst the dollar liquidifies (prints) for the planet's own good...that same dollar expects a fair gesture from the ECB in lowering its IRs. Part of the unspoken deal to manage the dollar decline, "orderly", all together.
Lowering EU IRs for a considerable period of time (hum), can only result, theoretically, in mobilisation of savings into consumption.

Dollar credits expansion + mobilisation of savings into economic activity, will imo, remain a theory, indicative for desperation.

Watch how the IMF and the World Bank are going to "move" in the tsunami area !!! This might evolve into another Argentina scenario.

Cometose (1/4/05; 07:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 127904)
GOLD ETF documentation
http://streettracksgoldshares.com/us/value/gb_value_usa.php
Date: Tue Jan 04 2005 08:30
ViPer (***) ID#243326:
-
Streettracks gold trust....GLD
added 459 thousand oz's yesterday, 14 tons,
now has 109.16 tons in the vault, 6 tons more than when they whacked gold at $457.

Looks like they have covered their shorts very nicely here and bought bullion with the short
proceeds, it oughta be UP from here forward....Jmo

Boilermaker (1/4/05; 06:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 127903)
Gold ETF gets 14.3 tons Monday
On Monday, Jan 3, "Authorized Participants" delivered 14.3 tons of gold to the GLD custodian(s) for which they were awarded about 4.6 million shares shares of freshly printed stock. I am curious about the size and timing of this event coming just after the recent gold price pullback.

First, it seems counterintuitive that 14.3 tons of physical gold could be assembled during a period of notable gold weakness. Perhaps some of this came from the recent Euro region central bank sales?

Another possibility is that it represents most of the 15.5 tons of gold that was redeemed by AP's on Dec.7, just before the last substantial price decline for gold. But that subsequent price decline suggested that the gold was sold back into the market and hence wouldn't be on hand for the Jan. 3 purchase. In any case these AP's seem to have a sixth sense for market timing (or more likely some inside info on what's coming).

Now I'm trying to figure how these transactions might fit into some scheme for gold price manipulation and/or profit opportunity for the AP's. I'm definitely in need of some help on this question. Any ideas?

Cometose (1/4/05; 06:04:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 127902)
John Murphy/ something from over Yonder
BUFFORD (john murphy $$$) ID#252216:
-
dollar tends to stabilize early in the new year

not bullish on the dollar

gold correction, market anticipation of dollar rally

final stages of cyclical stock market rise ( from oct 02 ) problems after january

likes japan , out performing global markets

spotlight (1/4/05; 03:56:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 127901)
Debt To The Penney
The Debt To the Penny
The following is an example of how government "times" the national debt figures. If you blink, you could miss the fact that they let the debt accumulate before reporting it until the day when everyone is busy with new years eve preparations. Looking at the posted increases and decreases on a daily basis reveals that the increase from 12/30 to 12/31 was oviously manipulated.

This is also an example of what can be expected in the coming year, in spite of the rosey debt reducing promises recently made by Bush.

So goes the debt, so goes the dollar. So goes the dollar, so continues the gold bull market. Nothing has changed, it has only gotten worse...

**************************************
Debt To The Penny.
Current Amount

12/31/2004 $7,596,165,867,424.14

Current
Month

12/30/2004 $7,521,283,292,667.91
12/29/2004 $7,527,874,344,820.55
12/28/2004 $7,536,267,845,909.18
12/27/2004 $7,528,393,823,386.88
12/24/2004 $7,527,973,971,610.37
12/23/2004 $7,525,707,616,321.00
12/22/2004 $7,530,066,927,081.97
12/21/2004 $7,531,570,079,606.11
12/20/2004 $7,524,492,792,912.62
12/17/2004 $7,523,699,112,455.23
12/16/2004 $7,519,646,830,227.83
12/15/2004 $7,529,346,941,107.40
12/14/2004 $7,551,124,808,067.16
12/13/2004 $7,547,176,500,405.75
12/10/2004 $7,546,868,151,652.32
12/09/2004 $7,546,778,677,941.37
12/08/2004 $7,550,023,742,837.60
12/07/2004 $7,553,295,719,364.18
12/06/2004 $7,535,629,022,968.30
12/03/2004 $7,534,027,040,378.62
12/02/2004 $7,522,602,352,797.79
12/01/2004 $7,514,622,255,740

Black Blade (1/4/05; 02:52:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 127900)
Gold, Silver Drop On Fund Sales
http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4524554687061164096

Snippit:

Gold dropped over $8 to two-month lows of $429 an ounce Monday on fund and bullion bank sales spurred by a turn higher in the U.S. dollar and a deteriorating technical picture. The turn higher in the U.S. dollar versus other currencies was deemed the main driver behind the weakness, rendering dollar-denominated gold less appealing outside the U.S. This combined with thinner-than-usual trading conditions because of New Year holidays in Asia and Europe and batches of pre-placed sell orders that added to sell-side volumes as prices declined, and made for a turbulent start to the trading year for Comex gold. Dealers agreed that further choppy trading could be seen over the near term.

However, with many players retaining a bearish outlook for the U.S. currency in 2005, some good levels of speculative bargain hunting in dollar alternatives such as gold are expected at some point, they said. Some short covering by local dealers is also deemed on the cards, especially once trading population levels return to normal later in the week, they added.

Black Blade: Probably not much positive trading action until next week. Meanwhile there is some evidence of US dollar buying in foreign markets and the thin trading conditions have exagerated price movements in commodities (particularly petroleum and metals). Could be some good entry points this week before traders return in force next week.

Black Blade (1/4/05; 02:39:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 127899)
JP Morgan bullish about gold price
http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?cg=BreakingNews-Business&ao=177365

Snippit:

JP Morgan remains bullish about the dollar gold price. "The medium-term risk remains to the upside, with the current decline expected to correct only a portion of the July to December advance, hence leaving the multi-year bull trend intact," JP Morgan analysts wrote. "Key support is $409/oz and as long as the market remains above there, we expect the completion of the correction phase to provide the platform for the market to extend higher in the coming months," the bank added. -- I-Net Bridge

Black Blade: JP eh? Hmmm... Meanwhile BOJ dollar buying appears to have picked up sharply in light of the recent Yen crash. It seems that the Japanese and others are back in the game buying up US debt with reckless abandon.

Belgian (1/4/05; 01:41:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 127898)
Cobra/Rich
Each time, you both, kindly respond to my questions, I learn more (better) on where we keep on diverging in opinion (perception).
Our main differences are...You can live with the many unanswered gold questions, thanks to pragmatic simplification.
I prefer to know WHY these gold questions remain unanswered.

And you certainly will both agree, that there are indeed many serious gold questions that don't have "yet" serious (correct) answers. Otherwise, there would be very little reason to stay on this particular forum. Right ?

The many gold questions will continue to be asked over and over again...up until the "real" answer becomes fully consistant. The questions will not go away when the same simple "escape" answers are provided, permanently.

Now, I hear you both screaming...is the questions/answers-thing, providing you juicy profits, Belgian !?
What's bringing the most mustard on the table,...theories or stories ?
And it is exactly here, that we differ, gentlemen ! As soon as there is reason to start question the evidency of things...the question avalanche will become unstoppable and no simplification will bring it to a halt.

And the one and only way to avoid any gold question avalanche is to contain the goldprice and cover it with "the market" mantra. There are no (gold)theories...there's "only" the perpetual markets ! And here comes my next question, Sirs : Will the existing goldmarket remain the same...?

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

P.O. Box 460009
Denver, Colorado 80246-0009

1-800-869-5115 (US)
00-800-8720-8720 (EU)

303-399-6759 (Fax)

admin@usagold.com

Office Hours
6:00am - 5:00pm
(U.S. Mountain Time)
Monday - Friday

American Numismatic Association
Member since 1975

Industry Council for Tangible Assets

USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals is a BBB Accredited Business. Click for the BBB Business Review of this Gold, Silver & Platinum Dealers in Denver CO

Zero Complaints

Thursday February 9
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved