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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/4/2004
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(Yesterday's Discussion.)
elevator guy
(1/4/04; 23:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 114600)
Conflicting scenarios?
Hi, everybody. Elevator Guy has been busy building a business, but now I am coming out of lurking with a question for anyone who cares to answer.
We all know the US dollar is being devalued right now, and that if oil moves large scale towards Euros, the Fed's stranglehold will be lost. Right so far? Many here post ominous prophecies of the demise of the USD as the pre-eminent reserve currency, and the decline of the US in general, massive inflation at home, gold's meteroric rise, etc, etc.
But meanwhile, the United States oil interests are feverishly working on maintaining and securing oil sources. Many of these ambitious undertakings have been documented, and need little proving. It is clear enough that the USA is manuevering to a position of strength, which is in keeping with the actions of any world power during their time in the sun. History is full of nations that were once prosperous through imperialsim, and as long as there are commodities to be gleaned from the far flung battelfields, the empire thrives. And if the USA still has the worlds' most powerful military machine, it is no surprise to see a grab for the prize of our industrialized time, which prize is oil.
So my question is, if the US finds all the oil it needs, will the USD still undergo what seems to be an inevitable and massive correction, foretold by Another as resulting in $30,000 gold? (Not that gold is worth more, but the real "value" of the dollar just becoming clear when its day of hedgemony has run its course)
On the one hand, its seems clear that the US Dollar will tumble like a house of cards, as the Euro moves to oil. This sea change would bring great changes to the lifestyle of average Americans, and a lessening of political power of the USA.
But if the USA can secure enough oil for its needs, is this end-game scenario gauranteed? Could plentiful oil stall the demise of the USD, and prolong the era of what Another calls the American experience?
mikal
(1/4/04; 23:32:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114599)
Bureaucratic heads
I have to agree with Mr. Beaman.
At least those bureaucrats aren't as empty-headed as some claim.
But they are experts at burying their head in the sand!
mikal
(1/4/04; 23:22:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114598)
Head
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/beam010504.shtml
STOOL DAYS
HILLARY'S HEALTH CARE PLAN - RECONSIDERED
By: Roderick Beaman
Excerpt: "Hillary was given the chairmanship of the committee to develop a health care plan but it was Magaziner's baby. The plan was comprehensive with suitable penalties for violations. There was something in it for every interest group and even had a provision for appropriate penalties. So that got my mind going and, as anyone who knows me will tell you, that's dangerous.
Now Hillary is the junior senator from New York which also suffers with Charles Schumer. I figured maybe it's time to reconsider her health plan.
One of the cornerstones of preventative health care is nutrition and one of the cornerstones of nutrition is fibre. The sign of whether you are getting enough fibre, is if your stool floats. If it doesn't float, you're not getting enough of fibre.
Well, we could have a brand new federal bureaucracy called the Stool Health Inspection Team (You do the acronym). They could be outfitted with hats and coats emblazoned with the initials and a representative stationed in every public lavatory in the country. Before anyone would flush, the inspector would go in and check to see if the stool floated. If not, the individual would be fined. I mean, after all, such an offense would be contributing to disease and possibly costing society, wouldn't it? We could have reports to the Secretary for compliance as well as to the President.
The bureau chief could be called the S.H.I.T. Head. Someone would shout, 'Oh, ----' and he could respond, 'Yes?' The possibilities are mind boggling.
Actually, I though the whole thing was a bunch of... well, you get the point."
specie-man
(1/4/04; 22:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 114597)
@steady - song quote
>>>
being on tv is not an honor, nor is it a duty!
some singer said something like that.
<<<
That was Neil Young, from his recent "Greendale" CD.
A masterpiece in my opinion (if you're a fan of that type of music).
ax
(1/4/04; 22:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114596)
MINE SET - THANKS, READ IT
THANKS CHRIS - I READ THE MINE SET.
Chris Powell
(1/4/04; 21:35:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114595)
Reason for spike up in gold, down in dollar
http://www.jsmineset.com/
Jim Sinclair attributes this Asian market
action to Fed Governor Bernanke's speech in
San Diego, which seems to assert the Fed's
belief that it can keep dollar interest rates
low forever. See Sinclair's commentary
headlined "Asia Tonight."
ax
(1/4/04; 21:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114594)
WHAT IS REASON FOR SPIKE?
ANYONE KNOW WHY THE SPIKE OF GOLD UP/ USD DOWN? THIS AM IN
ASIA? There can be alot of reasons but I don't know of anything particularly new , or sudden just now. Does anyone?
Chris Powell
(1/4/04; 21:02:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114593)
Greenspan in 1996 and this weekend
I would argue that, in San Diego, Greenspan may
have been going a lot farther than his comments
quoted from Tokyo in 1996. For the central bank
to influence the economy "if necessary in rare
circumstances, through direct intervention in
market events" -- the Tokyo comments -- seems
much different than intervening INDIRECTLY and
SURREPTITIOUSLY, through intermediaries, and
CONTINUOUSLY, as a CONSTANT POLICY, over
the course of many years, as has been the
case with the U.S. government's intervention
in the gold market and now, it seems increasingly,
thanks to GATA's recent research, with long bonds,
and even with certain commodities.
Gandalf the White
(1/4/04; 20:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114592)
Everyone can read a "PICTURE" link this one ! <;-)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
Can you say DOWN GAP OPENING for the US$ to new lows !
Click on the bottom right corner of the Chart at the above LINK and see why PHYSICAL GOLD is JUMPING in HK !
<;-)
a nation of one
(1/4/04; 20:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114591)
to goldquest (1/4/04; 19:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 114585)
Greenspan: "We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through DIRECT INTERVENTION IN MARKET EVENTS." [goldquest's emphasis.]
That is an overt proclamation that, in these areas, absolute power has been siezed. I believe that it necessarily implies that additional -and almost certainly very ruthless and profoundly constrictive- measures that have previously been developed are now in motion and will ultimately be put into place.
a nation of one
(1/4/04; 20:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114590)
418
(wupy)
a nation of one
(1/4/04; 20:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114589)
my outlook for gold in 2004
I think the price of gold will go up. How far is a good
question, and so is when. There are a lot of factors that
are influencing it, and a lot more that could. Therefore
there is uncertainty. But right now it looks like a duck.
It is quacking like a duck. And it is paddling like a
duck. Therefore, I think it is probably a duck. By this I
don't mean an ugly duckling, but a duck, though, soon, it
may fly like a swan.
One thing that I think is very likely to happen this year
is that more people will become aware of its increase, and
that this will make its price go higher, faster. Who these
people are is important. They will not yet be the Toms and
Sallys who work and save, but will probably consist more
of the types of people who are in the business of selling
stocks and bonds, and others who are in positions above
them. Additionally, more articles favorable to gold will
be published on the Internet and in newspapers and
magazines, and more news and financial programs on TV will
mention gold positively also. This will give people who
are alert the incentive to buy gold and gold-related
instruments. But alertness will still required. The day
may come when gold's increase will be noticed even by
those who are not paying attention. What matters is who
notices, who does not notice, and when, because that will
clarify what happens next.
World events have for some time been moving among
potentialities that can be expected to eventuate
consistent with this picture. It is hard to imagine an
event, or a sequence of events, or a process, that would
give substantial reason for gold to decline in value. Even
verbal conjectures that I have seen about possible
measures against gold seem confined to reactions whose
effects would not negatively effect gold's real value in
dollar terms.
I told my father's family in 1992 that this was going to
happen. My brother and sister have done nothing. Their
step-mother, my Mom, bless her heart, took my advice,
after ten years of unrelenting persuasion. She is glad
now. For you and me big things lie ahead. That which we
have known is behind us. We have only to witness and to
endure what is yet to come.
Operative
(1/4/04; 19:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114588)
Government Bonds in 2004
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=acLtpkd_PJjw
If one lives in a flood plain, it is a good idea to acquire flood insurance. If one lives in an area with rising debt levels, it would be prudent to obtain some insurance, aka Gold/Silver.
Waverider
(1/4/04; 19:14:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114587)
And...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=5&t=l&a=2
...from the US$ C(r)ash perspective...
Waverider
(1/4/04; 19:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114586)
Euro
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2
...is up 1.26% at 1.2658 at the moment and the Yen's at 106.87 - where's the Japanese PTT tonight?
goldquest
(1/4/04; 19:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 114585)
Greenspan's San Diego Comments
are not that suprising.
November 18, 1996 at the Federation of Bankers Association of Japan, Tokyo, Japan. Greenspan's comments on market intervention: "Thus governments have been given certain responsibilities related to their banking and financial systems that must be balanced. We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through DIRECT INTERVENTION IN MARKET EVENTS." My emphasis.
steady
(1/4/04; 18:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114584)
stuff
being on tv is not an honor, nor is it a duty!
some singer said something like that.
has there really been any new new gold news?
banks are still short, the pot is bubbling
someone keeps testing them to see what they do,
those short should have played a better hand and kept there fimg mouth shut, but there constant ramblings obver the past two years have done nothing but make them and there stoogies stand out like, yellow snow out past the back porch. obvioulsly they are not good poker players once a week.
demand is up , supply is down, what else do you need to know?
besides the dinar is going to have a banner year in sales and at one point they will start to use the dirham in the same breath more frequently. can usa gold get some of those things, ya know true gold bug collectors might like to have some of the new early editions of them coins.
Chris Powell
(1/4/04; 18:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114583)
Fed chairman's speech in San Diego
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1824
Did Greenspan just rationalize Fed's intervention in
markets far beyond short-term interest rates?
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Gold Standard
(1/4/04; 16:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 114581)
OBL and his alleged tapes
I personally find it strange that Bin Laden, the mastermind of a ruthless attack carried out with military precision from a cave in the Afghani desert, does not appear to even possess a video-cam, let alone a disposable camera.
My view is that he is rotting in whatever hell he used to believe in.
Cheers! GS
slingshot
(1/4/04; 16:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114580)
Gold and the New Year
Get Ready for Here I Come.
Earth, Wind and Fire?
Wishing all a Happy New Year. Yepper, Better late than never.
Knocking out the dents in my armor, especially in my helmet. Sharpening up the blade of my sword and sewing the rips and tears in my clothes. Oh yes, waterprofing my boots.
Getting ready for 2004!
In the New Year I will try not to be a Doom and Gloomer in the eyes of others by waiting for questions concerning gold,instead of giving advise. Remain ever positive with any pullback in price a buying opportunity.
In 2004,Its Gold for Sure!
Slingshot-----------------<>
Caradoc
(1/4/04; 16:33:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114579)
Two FBI agents disagree with French version of airline incidents
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/Directors%20Notebook.htm#AT
Snips from link above:
..."Let me get this straight. You have two F-16's escorting one Air France flight into LAX, other Air France flights cancelled, meetings involving [Secretary of State Colin] Powell, French Intelligence and us [the FBI], and the reason provided to the media was essentially that it was a case of mistaken identity?" ..."Where in the h--- do they get this stuff? I know we have our share of problems, but we're not stupid."
So, two individuals with some involvement in the matter are insulted by version of the story which downplays the threat. The agents remain anonymous and there's nothing to document the conversation, but during the months I've tracked Hagmann's website he has repeatedly been first with stories that are confirmed days later by government ot mass media.
Implication for precious metals as investment is that we are living in a time of uncertainty.
Caradoc
DryWasher
(1/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114578)
'Osama' tape tells Muslims to fight
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,8325176%255E1702,00.html
Snips:
A TAPE recording said to be of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has urged Muslims to continue fighting a jihad, or holy war, rather than co-operating with Middle East peace efforts
"My message is to incite you against the conspiracies, especially those uncovered by the occupation of the crusaders in Baghdad under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, and also the situation in (Jerusalem) under the deceptions of the road map and the Geneva initiative," the speaker said.
"The occupation of Iraq is the beginning of the full occupation of the other Gulf states. ... The Gulf is the key for control of the world in the point of view of the big powers because of the presence of the biggest deposits of oil."
DryWasher Comment:
This short article is worth reading because it presents an insight into the "War on Terror" as seen from the Osama bin Laden perspective. Don't expect this war to be over any time soon. This is bad news for the economy and good news for the Gold markets.
21mabry
(1/4/04; 15:39:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114577)
Beligan
Thanks for your response.What is the attitude of the gold investor in europe?Are they disapointed do they feel there is no gold bull?Do thet feel its on the horizon?Does golds relationship to the dollar keep european gold holders from benifiting from this gold move higher against the dollar?How does a european play this gold market?I am not writing about long term gold holders but the ordinary citizen who may be attracted to gold?As usual your answers always enlighten me to world opinions.21
Sundeck
(1/4/04; 15:00:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114576)
Rest of world gets sick of propping up Bush's deficit
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/04/1073151209953.html
Snips:
"...
The US economy is reflating fast. Too fast? Much depends on Asia, John Garnaut writes.
The global flirtation with deflation is already last year's story. It has been washed away by torrents of money that the US Federal Reserve and the White House have let loose on the world.
The US central bank has never been so committed to keeping the price of money low. Few American presidents have been so profligate. With the help of Wall Street's financial markets, which are linking savers with spenders more efficiently than ever, their monetary and fiscal policies have reflated the world's economies.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and President Bush kick-started the US economy to have it roaring at an annualised 8.2 per cent in the September quarter. They also helped rescue East Asia from years of deflation, via a complex monetary and currency reaction.
Higher prices are certain to flow through import prices to Australia, mitigated in the short term by the strength of the seemingly irrepressible Australian dollar.
.....
Harvinder Kalirai, State Street Global Market's Asia Pacific strategist, says it is difficult to underestimate what ultra-low 1 per cent interest rates will do to an American economy which he calculates is already growing at capacity.
US interest rates are now further below the American GDP growth rate than at any time since the 1970s. The "output gap" that measures the difference between the economy's production and potential has probably already closed.
By the end of next year, Kalirai predicts the effects of a falling US dollar on US import prices, rising prices transmitted through Chinese and Japanese exports, and a tight US labour market (despite rising unemployment) will translate into a US inflation reading above 3 per cent.
"The Fed's goal is not to avoid deflation but to create inflation" says Kalirai.
"The scope for upward adjustments for US rates is quite dramatic."
Economists like Kalirai say the US dollar's fall was triggered by the extreme monetary and fiscal policies of Greenspan and Bush, which lowered the purchasing power of the US dollar.
Their liquidity glut is now being transmitted to the rest of the world by frenetic central bank buying in foreign exchange dealing rooms.
....
There has been dissension on the Bank of Japan board about whether to extend its US dollar-buying program.
And if Chinese inflation accelerates too far, the People's Bank of China could choose to loosen its currency peg and slow its purchases of US dollars.
Only faith from the East Asian central banks - or perhaps a continuation of the American economy's phenomenal productivity rates - may stand between the US and a currency fall, interest rate spike, investment slump, equity market fall and sub-standard economic growth.
..."
Sundeck:
An interesting discussion of what may lie ahead as the "dollar crisis" plays out...
Belgian
(1/4/04; 14:42:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 114575)
@marbry21 : Gold and the world ?
Indeed Sir, the biggest part of POG's rise is due to the declining exchange rate of the dollar-numeraire wich still is, Gold's antithesis ! Hereby must be taken into account that Gold's low of 253$/Oz was an overshooting (anomaly) that provoked the WAG countermeasure. We will never, ever know the *real* reasons for the obscene POG decline to 253$ and the WAG measure.
Gold remains in the Unfree dollar gold market, dominated by gold-paper-contracts as to support the dollar in the dollar reserve system. Let us hope that goldbugs start to realize that POG has very little to do with the realities of offer/demand and is managed pricewise as a monetary element in a strict dollar environment. Forget everything about goldmining figures and jewelry or gold investment statistics in relation to the POG !
As long as Gold stays in the dollar-system, POG will not run away in a spectacular fashion (the thousands). Gold must be set... or break free, from its dollar shackels. Freegold,... remember ?
When POG ran from 41$ to 850$ ('71 > '80)...it wasn't because of jewelry-mining, offer/demand statistics. It wasn't about high IRs or price-inflation. It was about the dollar and oil without the existance of an alternative reserve currency. That same dollar has been devaluing ever since that period of the eighties and the builders (architects) of Another currency-system had to keep supporting the existing dollar system whilst constructing the alternative. That's why everybody kept Gold contained in concert for dollar support, the globe's reserve currency and trading numeraire.
Now the dollar has to face strength or weakness against the opposing triumvirate of Gold - Oil - euro, wich will set Gold Free in euro and give the remaining oil-reserves, the value that they deserve.
Today, a Belgian Bilderberger, stated that the euro is the most remarkable financial (succesfull) event of this decade !
Any fiat currency with the ambition to replace the dollar-reserve has to be a friend of Gold and needs oil-trust as a transitional hub.
How many other currencies would like to walk away from their status of dollar-derivative and join the future euro-Gold umbrella ??? That's why CB-Goldreserves have to be re-distributed amongst non EU CBs. Or/and in the case of China and Russia, gold-exploration and mining, intensively encouraged as to increase their CB goldreserves.
CBs know very well, where they want the dollar exchange rate and the appropiate POG. Occasional gold (paper) market disturbances are not tolerated and corrected asap, by both camps of the double sided ($-€) Gold business. But the general perception must remain that central bankers are dummies ! Wich is, imo, certainly not the case. There are "two" Gold cartels and not one as generally percepted !
The CoinGuy
(1/4/04; 14:38:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114574)
Dr. Marc Faber's Comments for 2004
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/32991.html
Snippit:
I remain convinced that the present 'strong' recovery phase in the US economy won't last for long, as it is totally artificial.
There are simply too many imbalances in the system, as reflected by a record low national saving rate, record household debts, and record trade and current account deficits, for this recovery to lead to sustainable strong growth that would justify the present stock valuations.
I have quoted Joseph Schumpeter in previous reports, but for the benefit of some of our new readers, I quote him here once again regarding the subject of economic recoveries, that are purely a consequence of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Comment: For those who bought Marc's book early last year, 2003 turned out be rather profitable. Although, the arguments on both sides(Bulls/Bears & Deflation/Inflation) of the equation are already set in stone. How this turns out will be one for the history books, this I am sure of.
As if the excesses haven't been?
The (physical) CoinGuy
Goldilox
(1/4/04; 14:33:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114573)
Golden Helmets
And the guys in the Golden helmets intercept in overtime to move on to Philly in the NFL playoffs.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(1/4/04; 14:24:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114572)
In bookstores it retails for $14.95, but you know the author! Get it here for $5.95
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
 | The ABCs of Gold Investing"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.
|
Boilermaker
(1/4/04; 13:55:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114571)
Gold 2004
Our host Michael asked for our outlook for gold in 2004. I think it will go up at least in $ terms and probably in all currencies. At some point, possibly this year, I believe the financial PTB will close the curtain on today's $ scheme and reopen it to a new and improved model. Amid the blathering that more tweeking here and there supported by lots of new $ creation will keep things together there must be some plan "B" under formulation. When will we know that the $ era is formally ending and the unveiling of plan "B" is imminent? What signs will we see in the weeks ahead of this event?
I would think that heads of state, treasury and financial officials, central bankers along with lots of shadowy "big players" will be scurrying around the world making deals. Is there any such thing as an index that tracks such activity? If not there should be. That would be akin to monitoring the communication flurries that presage terrorist ops. Call it the FCI, Financial Chatter Index.
I don't know when this event will occur or what it will look like. I do expect it will "negatively impact" most unsuspecting lemmings. I don't think it will be this year unless a precipitous $ fall or a big nasty event precipitates it. In the meantime party on!!
Goldilox
(1/4/04; 13:21:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114570)
Top - 10
@ Specie Man
Great post. I vote for you to join the Mogamu guru in the economic humor archives.
My one alternative NBS concerns your prediction of the earthquake possibilities. Californians (I am one) are so acclimated to them that occurrance would be another motivator for the housing construction industry. The unfortunate fires of last fall have had that effect, as rents and construction have been buoyed by their economic impact just as the future of a soaring real estate market was questionable. One of the ironies of life is that calamity breeds growth as we reach for inner survival strengths.
Insurance money can be another liquidity boost. As the insurance rates rise to rebuild the company reserves, it's "borrowing" from the future in one more form.
Operative
(1/4/04; 12:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114569)
France: Egypt Plane Crash May Be Due to Power Loss
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4070079
France: Egypt Plane Crash May Be Due to Power Loss
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt (Reuters) - Search teams hunted with nets Sunday for the remains of 148 people, mostly French tourists, who died in an Egyptian plane crash France said was most likely due to a loss of power.
Comment: The article states : "There was no explosion before the crash, no one has claimed responsibility for (an) attack," he said. "The arguments most commonly set out show that it was simply a loss of power," he told French radio Europe 1. "
For those that fly often this statement of no explosion may bring some relief, but consider the following. Air Terrorism has in the past been associated with big bangs. Rather large amounts of explosives in suitcases loaded aboard aircraft has been the norm. This may be changing. In spite of all the increased security actitivty at the terminal, the screening of passengers, luggage, and the removal of box cutters, at least for the most part, there remains a major problem yet to have been fully addressed. Maintenence personnel. Particulary at airports outside the US. A clipped wire here, a very small, lipstick size explosive placed in the right place, can accomplish the same fate for any airliner. We know the instigators of 911 had spent much effort in gaining instrunctional materials in order to fly the planes. It is conceivable that similar efforts have been spent in obtaining repair manuals in order to sabatoge airliners from within. The battlefield of the terrorist will be a fluid one, everchanging in tactics.
In spite of the hoopla from Wall St on how great things are going to be in 2004, they may be counting chickens before the eggs are laid, or something to that effect.
specie-man
(1/4/04; 12:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114568)
Greenspan Speak
That would be April of LAST year.
specie-man
(1/4/04; 12:21:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 114567)
Greenspan Speak
Here is an essay I wrote back in April of this year. It seems appropriate based on the recent discussion of Greenspan's speaking style.
"Sure Thing"
Perhaps the most important question ever pondered by Man is: "To be, or not to be ?". One of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's lasting influences, no doubt, will be the increased use of his favorite preamble by other economic commentators. What does Chairman Greenspan really mean when he adds the unnecessary "To be sure," at the beginning of key sentences in his reports? Is it, perhaps, some sort of secret code - designed to alert "insiders" to the true state of affairs ? In a highly unusual move last month the Federal Reserve Board of Governors refrained from making any call on the prevailing future risks to the economy because, it would seem, they were not sure if deflation or inflation is the more serious threat at this time. So now Greenspan has given the famous quandary a new form: "To be sure, or not to be sure ?" That is the question!
In the interest of reducing the number of keystrokes required to write this missive, I've decided to contract "To Be Sure" into it's shorthand version: "To BS" (and "Not To BS"). Hmm... I wonder, maybe this really is a "BS" flag. In other words, when Greenspan says: "To BS", anything that follows should be taken with a grain of salt !
In this vein, I have concocted my own list of the "top 10" economically-important things that I don't know if we can, or can not, be sure about (whew, there sure is a lot of uncertainty floating around right now!). For each of the 10 topics, I've added my BCS (Best Case Scenario).
Number 10:
To BS: Near-term future economic risks, according to the Federal Reserve, are cloudy, but probably balanced between inflation and deflation. As such, short-term interest rates were recently held steady by the Federal Reserve.
Not to BS: The Federal Reserve Board knows exactly what is going to happen, but they can't tell us. And if they raised, or lowered, interest rates, all sorts of financial mudslides could break loose.
My BCS: Every outstanding US Treasury bond (all US government debt) is wiped out by an eruption of Mt. Fuji in Japan (or possibly burnt in an intentional bonfire after the "paper" becomes nearly worthless except for it's ability to generate heat).
Number 9:
To BS: The current economic weakness is caused by uncertainty about the war in Iraq, and by high oil prices.
Not to BS: The current war in Iraq was caused by weaknesses in the economy, and is causing high oil prices.
My BCS: Enormous oil reserves are discovered under the mall in Washington, DC. Or, someone finally solves the mystery of "Cold Fusion" and we all start driving cars with little fusion energy generators in them. But then, there would probably be a war over palladium.
Number 8:
To BS: American consumers still have a lot of home equity wealth to dispose of, to keep the economy going.
Not to BS: American consumers have just a little bit of home equity left, and the frenzied mortgage industry is circling like hungry piranhas in a shrinking puddle. Soon they'll start feeding off each other. In the mean time, the crocodiles are eyeing people's remaining retirement accounts. The big untold story is: to what extent (in addition to home equity extraction) have consumers been "cashing out" their 401k retirement accounts to finance their unsustainable short-term living standards ?
My BCS: With global warming, we won't need any houses anyway, because we will all be able to live outside, year-round. And we won't need any significant retirement funds because, really, how much does it cost to live in a tent ?
Number 7:
To BS: Stocks are currently oversold, and represent a good investment opportunity.
Not to BS: Stocks are extremely overpriced, and the market will not go up until dividends are no longer paltry. "Mission-creep" by the US Government now has it purchasing equities on the dangerous days to prop up the market. And when did this drift away from truly free-market capitalism to communistic central economic planning start ? The big first step started around 1933. And the last gasp of Capitalism, as we know it, may arrive in a few years if this market manipulation continues.
My BCS: People finally realize that stock certificates are just no fun at all (except for the odd Enron stock certificate hanging on the wall as a conversation piece). Instead, people start investing their money in "fun" stuff like Yugi-Oh cards and zeppelins.
Number 6:
To BS: There are sufficient buffers and reserves in the economic system to protect it from shocks.
Not to BS: All it will take to bring the whole thing down is a major shock. While everyone had their eyes on Iraq, a potentially major shock to the world economy slipped in the door: SARS (the flu-like epidemic spreading across the globe). But I'm thinking about the type of shock that is even more sudden. Across the USA, housing prices are at unprecedented levels. So are mortgage debts as a (high) percentage of home values. In many areas, such as California, amounts owed on houses are dangerously close to (or even greater than) the market value of the property. With the weak job market, homeowners are struggling and some may be starting to walk away from (and default on) their mortgages. The kind of shock I'm thinking of is literally a shock - as in shock wave or aftershock. Think Richter Scale. If a major earthquake were to strike a populated part of California (Geologists say it is long overdue), image what it would do to housing values in the affected areas. People would default on mortgages in vast numbers. Families would move away. Neighborhoods would be in decline - causing a reinforcing cycle of crashing home values in ever-expanding areas. The government-sponsored entities "Freddie" and "Fannie", while huge, are severely lacking in the reserves necessary to cushion a national housing decline. Homeowners are also severely lacking in home-equity "reserves" to mitigate disasters of any magnitude.
My BCS: The ground stays put, or aliens transport some of us to a more stable planet.
Number 5:
To BS: The unemployment rate, according to the government is only about 5.5%.
Not to BS: For every person who has lost their job and is looking for one, there is another person who has totally given up on finding a job - and they are perpetually (it seems) living off of credit with no income.
My BCS: There are no jobs, so nobody ever has to work again - yahoo !
Number 4:
To BS: Interest rates are low, so the cost of borrowing money is at 40-year lows.
Not to BS: The interest I earn on savings is at a 40 year low. The minuscule interest income is not even worth the hassle of having to report it on my IRS Form 1040. So why save at all ?
My BCS: Interest rates go so low that banks will pay you to cart off the cash, and you never have to pay it back, Yahoo !
Number 3:
To BS: The price of gold is not being manipulated, it is priced according to a totally free market, and the US Dollar is not overvalued.
Not to BS: The government's "Strong Dollar Policy" implies that gold prices are held in check by unnatural forces. In Alan Greenspan's own words: "central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities, should the price rise". In other words, if governments (central banks) want to cap or suppress the price of gold, all they have to do is lease more loads of their gold holdings to someone who will sell it, thereby causing the price to slide due to increased market supply.
My BCS: The price of gold drops far enough that I can afford to get the bumpers on my 1972 El Camino plated with it. (Yes, I really do own a 1972 El Camino - but not the one Steve Martin discussed at the recent Hollywood Oscar gala).
Number 2:
To BS: Prices are stable, and there is no appreciable price inflation in the economy.
Not to BS: Go into any Wal-Mart (or K-mart if you can find one with the doors unlocked). Look around. The same old crappy trinkets made in China (and elsewhere) are just as cheap and crappy as they ever were. I can just image the people working in those factories - what they are thinking: "Stupid Americans actually buy this junk, and in large quantities ?!". And in exchange for that junk, we Americans fork over the equity in our houses via the voracious, weed-like, government-sponsored, mortgage-backed equity conduits known as "Freddie", "Fannie", etc. Those equities are purchased, in quantity, by foreigners. Congratulations, someone in China now owns a bigger share of your house than you do. But just try to send your kids to college, or buy homeowner's insurance, or pay a visit to your doctor or lawyer, or fill up your car with gasoline. Those prices are not stable, and they are not lower.
My BCS: The price of "RAP" music CDs will go up so much that people will stop buying them.
Number 1:
To BS: Social Security will be there to help us retire in comfort.
Not to BS: Retirement for a huge swath of the population will be bleak. Not only will Social Security go bankrupt (or change the eligibility rules to eliminate many of us) long before our planned retirement, but the purchasing power remaining in most 401Ks and IRAs will be negligible due to a combination of price inflation and poorly-performing assets in those retirement accounts.
My BCS: None that I can think of - except maybe that Social Security goes belly up and ceases operation before my daughter has to start paying into it.
Conclusion:
To be sure, things look very questionable going forward. There I go again.
Operative
(1/4/04; 11:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114566)
@ Great Albino Bat
"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that Alan Greenspan is...."(you fill in the dots).
A former weatherman.
or, my local weather guru is trying very hard to develop the speaking skills of Greenspan.
"Today's weather is starting to shape up to look something that may resemble this: a brief cool period during the earlier, but not later hours to possibly be followed, as our earlier models suggest, but not verified, of a slight, but not overly so, warming period that is yet to be determined as to its degree to which it may advance. Forward looking indicators have shown this to be of high probability as long as the current jet stream pattern remains relatively within its current expectations and allowing for the high/low pressure patterns as indicated by the most recent barometric measurements not to be confused with the seasonally adjusted hedonic references often associated with the varied regional forecasts. For later in the day or early evening at the latest a front of moisture laden molecules are being presently observed to be moving in a more northernly than southernly direction at least at the lowest levels observed. Higher level influences appear to be, but have not yet been confirmed by more verifible sources to be graduating towards the east, but a westward reversal cannot be discounted at this time."
Owning two weather radios, and at least 7 Tv channels that provide weather information, some 24 hours a day, I have found the most reliable to be a small block of wood attached to a string hanging on my back porch. If the wood is wet, it is raining. If moving, it is windy. If dry, then sunny. Simple is as simple does is my motto for 2004. However my New Year's investment resolution is somewhat more complicated, having a two pronged approach. Buy More Gold. Buy More Silver.
I will continue to read Greenspan's speeches though. Ever since my Reader's Digest subscription expired, I have found Al's text to provide the opportunity to expand my vocabulary, albeit I am not sure how often I will find instances to use most of his unique jargon.
Druid
(1/4/04; 11:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 114565)
The Paradox of Low Money Growth
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/benson010504pv.html
Snip.
A quick view of stock markets around the world indicates liquidity is everywhere. "Easy money" is driving commodity and financial asset prices up not only in the US but worldwide. The economy is booming but the traditional measures of US money (M1, M2 and MZM), reveal what would normally be troubling low money growth. Low money growth and massive monetary reflation seems to be a true paradox. How can this be? Let's start with what everyone already knows.
The greatest source of the increase in world liquidity remains financing the United State's massive budget and trade deficits. These deficits cannot be financed by US savings because the US has almost no savings! Instead, these deficits are being financed by the creation of new bank reserves by not only the Federal Reserve, but by other Central Banks, primarily in Japan and China.
The obvious impact of this is best seen in China. With China's currency pegged to the dollar, printing currency to buy US Treasury securities is pushing up China's money supply growth at a 20% annual rate. Inflation in China is accelerating. Moreover, China is buying commodities from countries like Australia, which pushes money into the commodity producing countries. The money being stuffed in pushes up asset prices to a level that causes countries, like Australia, to raise interest rates to try and prevent the domestic economy from overheating and inflating too quickly.
Druid: The pressure just keeps building.
Druid
(1/4/04; 11:05:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114564)
Goldilox (1/4/04; 10:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114559)
Orderly rate rise
"It almost seems that the FED is waiting and waiting as long as possible before instituting any rate rise when most financial indicators suggest that slow small increments might already be in order. Their hesitation might force larger hikes later, as once again they react rather than preempt. IMO, inaction when warranted is as political as action itself."
Druid: An interesting view Sir Goldilox. I would suggest that for some time now, there has been a blossoming relationship between the Fed and the bond speculation crowd as they appear headed toward the alter. I certainly hope the FED wouldn't get a case of "cold" feet at this point and do something whimsical like change and reverse short- term interest rate policy. This would be a very BAD SIGNAL and could very well create a lot of hurt and anguish for the poor bride to be (the bond speculation crowd). The parents (currency & derivative markets), not too mention the bride herself, could REALLY frown on such behavior which could create a shotgun response that maybe the FED may not be in position to handle.
Now, now, there is cake and champagne for everybody let's take a seat and enjoy the ceremony.
21mabry
(1/4/04; 10:48:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114563)
Gold and the World
I think something that needs to be discussed is gold bull market in the U.S. and its trend in other currencies.People in the U.S. like myself have seen gold move higher agains are fiat.Many other people have not seen these gains in there fiat in relation to gold.What are the implications of this?Can we truly say gold is in a bull market if its not moving up against all fiat?I do not know these answers,I need the brighter minds on the forum to help me with this concept.For me golds move has been great for are other forum members maybe it hasn't been as beneficial.21
Goldilox
(1/4/04; 10:46:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 114562)
Campaign "solutions"
@ Boilermaker
Yep, the campaign is settling into "Tax and Spend" vs. "Borrow and Spend". Notice the operative word "spend". The last "smaller government" candidates that garnered popular support were Reagan and Dubya, who turned out to be two of the biggest deficit spenders in history.
It's not hard to see why the US consumer borrows his way to insolvency when they watch their various governments do the same thing with seeming impunity.
I heartily endorse your conclusions. Personal solvency is the last vestige of independence. Cherish it - get gold.
Great Albino Bat
(1/4/04; 10:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 114561)
Learning Greenspeak.....
"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that Alan Greenspan is...."(you fill in the dots).
Once you have mastered say, 250 circumlocutions such as the sample given above, you are ready to write a Doctoral Thesis on any subject you please, about which you need know nothing whatsoever.
"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that the Universe is made up of boiled cabbage." Stated so elegantly, who could possibly cast doubt on that? Now if you possess an upper-class English accent, you are unquestioned master in your selected field.
People go to Cambridge and Oxford to learn the technique of putting-down the opponent instantaneously.
Yuck.
History will reduce Greenspan to his correct stature, which is microscopic.
The GAB
Boilermaker
(1/4/04; 10:32:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114560)
U.S. economy plans of Democrat hopefuls
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040104/campaign_economy_factbox_1.html
This post is NOT meant to be political but a glimpse at the continuing economic debate for the 2004 election.
snips;
FISCAL POLICY
Each candidate has proposed rolling back at least a portion of the $1.7 trillion in tax cuts President George W. Bush has signed into law.....
HEALTH CARE
Gephardt has offered the most expensive plan, seeking near-universal coverage at an estimated cost of more than $200 billion a year........
Dean also seeks to vastly expand health care coverage. His plan, estimated to cost $88 billion a year.........
JOB CREATION
Dean would provide $100 billion over two years to states and localities to be used for infrastructure investments and hiring and training related to homeland security. Clark also has a $100 billion two-year job-creation plan, which focuses in part on aid to states......
TRADE
All the leading candidates say trade agreements should have labor and environmental standards..........
SOCIAL SECURITY
All candidates oppose privatization and oppose raising the retirement age. None has offered a specific plan for long-tern solvency..........
comments; I'm sure the above brings a sense of relief to all here. No worries, just need more taxes and more spending. But you might want to consider a different approach to your own "long-term solvency".
Goldilox
(1/4/04; 10:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114559)
Orderly rate rise
@ Druid, Belgian
It almost seems that the FED is waiting and waiting as long as possible before instituting any rate rise when most financial indicators suggest that slow small increments might already be in order. Their hesitation might force larger hikes later, as once again they react rather than preempt. IMO, inaction when warranted is as political as action itself.
Druid
(1/4/04; 10:12:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114558)
Belgian (1/4/04; 06:55:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114555)
"Things will definitely change, "if" and "when" the €-$ exch. rate goes beyond the 1,40 level. Will wait and see to what extend, debtbergs, multiple deficits and generally rising IRs, will be (become) globally destructive (damaging)."
Druid: Sir Belgian, as always, excellent analysis and commentary. My bet is that we have a while to go before we get rising interest rates. This deadly game has come down to how best to manage both time and interest rates along the over all yield curve. The consortium knows that any SPIKE in interest rates creates a QUICK and EXPLOSIVE chain reaction that reverberates throughout all world markets. This is not what they want and goes against any notions of an orderly transition. They still have time and can go on the long end and manage it down for awhile until all yields converge and then what?
They will continue to expand whatever distortions (bubbles) they need to in order to manage interest rates within a tight range or downward.
Goldilox
(1/4/04; 10:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114557)
FED's Folly article
When Melting Pot originally posted this on 12/30, I asked if anyone had considered the source and timing of the article, as it from www.thestreet.com, Jim Cramer's analysis arm. He and Kudlow are still hyping the SM miracle of 2003, so it seems somewhat contradictory that this comes from his shop at this particular time.
Is the left hand unaware of the right one, or are we witnessing the early transformation of mainstream awareness?
One other possibility - I believe his has stated Democratic party affilliation, although he seems less than thrilled with the curtrent candidate selection - could there be some political messaging here?
The questions are not meant as conspiracy fodder, but when I see cross-messaging from the same source, motivational analysis often proves enlightening? Any comments?
a nation of one
(1/4/04; 09:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114556)
...
Greenspan said: "There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that our strategy of addressing the bubble's consequences rather than the bubble itself has been successful," Greenspan told the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego, Calif.
This touches on the substance of the problem. It is not the consequences of the bubble that need to be dealt with, but the cause of the bubble. Since the FED causes the bubble, the FED is part of the problem, if not all of the problem.
If Alan were to refine his statement, intending it to be truthful and concise, rather then misleading and impressive-sounding, it might go something like this: "Because most people do not examine it carefully, our plan of dealing with the symptoms of the bubble (instead of with its causes) still has most people fooled." Granted, on the surface it looks like it might be working. But mere appearances are not evidence. Especially if they are created for the purpose of deceiving.
The good news is that this will not go on forever. More and more people are beginning to perceive the ruse.
Belgian
(1/4/04; 06:55:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114555)
Sir Gresham's article : Fed's Folly !
As an amateur obsever, I do underwrite this article for 100%. It is all as simple as described by detox. Great article Sir Gresham. Thanks.
The (technical) interpretation of the different long term charts, are indicating the many inconsistancies between those different financial parameters.
Interest Rates ($-€) AND the US$-exch.rate, haven't reversed (yet) their declining "trend". But, the $-POO, $-POG, euro-exch.rate, are still rising and this rising "trend" hasn't been broken/reversed, yet.
I see the MSCI-USD-world index, topping...but might have it wrong.
Dollar-exch.rate weakness might undergo a short term correction, without changing the general trend ? IRs might be pushed lower, once again, as to avoid a breakthrough of the LT (since '94) declining trendline ?
Yep, the Bush administration & Co, definitely wants a second term in november. Will everybody remain cooperative up until election time ?
Note the following anomaly : % Jap 10 yrs in '03-'04 rose from 0,42% to 1,5% (+300%-!!!) whilst the yen appreciated 10% against the dollar in the same period !?
This planet is totally dollar-oriented and has almost blind faith in the dollar-policies as the world's main economical/financial, engine.
Things will definitely change, "if" and "when" the €-$ exch. rate goes beyond the 1,40 level. Will wait and see to what extend, debtbergs, multiple deficits and generally rising IRs, will be (become) globally destructive (damaging).
Many TRILLIONS of dollars, outside the US, are quietly awaiting their fate.
Melting Pot
(1/4/04; 05:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 114554)
The Debt To the Penny: $7,001,312,247,818.28
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
How much is a trillion?
A trillion, in America, is a thousand billion, which would be written as a one with 12 zeros:
1,000,000,000,000
Mr. Schwartz has this to say about how long it would take to count to a trillion:
"Since most of the numbers between one and one trillion are even larger than those on the way to one billion, the average time required to pronounce them is even longer. Try, for instance, 369,472,888,227 (three hundred sixty-nine billion, four hundred seventy-two million, eight hundred eighty-eight thousand, two hundred twenty-seven). How long did that take you? I would say that six seconds is an average time per number in counting to a trillion. (Remember, you have to pronounce every syllable!)
That means it would take six trillion seconds or 190,259 years to reach the number one trillion - assuming of course, that modern science discovers the secret of immortality long before you achieve your goal. (6,000,000,000,000 seconds divided by 60 seconds per minute divided by 60 minutes per hour divided by 24 hours per day divided by 365 days per year = 190,259 years)"
How much is a trillion? This is hard to imagine but here is a website, called A Trillion Dollars, that might help:
http://www.mcn.net/~jimloy/trillion.html
http://www.punahou.edu/acad/sanders...BillionEtc.html
So what is the minimum amount of time required to count to 7 trillion?
190,259 years per trillion X 7 trillion is 1 million, 331 thousand, eight hundred and thirteen (1,331,813) years MINIMUM to count to 7 trillion....
@ MK (01/03/04; 17:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114531)
"Durban promised to pay in ounces per kilowatt, it seems"
Whats this? Gold employed as money and a medium of exchange in South Africa! SA has many problems under the current chaotic government regime, paying in gold is probably a sound business decision as DRD will be guaranteed power when many others may not...JMO
Got Gold?
Operative
(1/4/04; 05:08:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114553)
Greenspan Defends Fed Stock Bubble Policy
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4068885
Greenspan Defends Fed Stock Bubble Policy
SAN DIEGO (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Saturday that policymakers have been proven correct in their decision not to try to prick a 1990s stock-market bubble that subsequently broke on its own.
"There appears to be enough evidence, at least tentatively, to conclude that our strategy of addressing the bubble's consequences rather than the bubble itself has been successful," Greenspan told the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego, Calif.
Comment: This link is the cure for all who awake this morning with a clear mind. Greenspeak, nobody does it better.
Note: I think the reason I have such difficulty understanding what Greenspan is saying may have been brought to light in a recent women's magazine. ( I won't go into the reasons why I was reading a womens magazine, suffice to say I relate to a Clint Eastwood movie where as a Marine he is attempting to gain insight into the other gender by reading similar magazines during a bus ride.)
Like Greenspan, women can be pretty tricky reading as well. Example: Q. Is anything wrong my dearest?
A. No, not really.
Any man who accepts that answer as accurate is in big trouble. Let's try another :
Q. Where would you like to go to dinner?
A. I leave it up to you, it does not matter to me.
Well, I found out that pulling into the local fast food spot was in fact, " a matter".
I am sure the answer to breaking the Greenspan code is right in front of me, if only I can get past this next article, " How to get what you want from any man without having to ask."
Wish me luck,
Waverider
(01/04/04; 01:03:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114552)
Gold glimmers in Pakistan
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-1-2004_pg5_5
"Local gold prices rose over 17 percent in 2003 primarily due to a buoyant international market where gold prices soared by over 20 percent as more investors opted for safe heaven investing to seek refuge from the turbulent international capital and currency markets, traders and analysts said here Friday."
Waverider: Last year at this time there was alot of Gold bashing by the media - the trend now appears to be acknowledgement of Gold as an international currency and safe haven refuge...from Gaza City to Karachi!
Goldilox
(01/04/04; 00:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114551)
Eavis piece
Mr G
This was posted earlier in the week. Two very interesting things.
1) It comes from Jim Cramer's (of CNBC) site www.thestreet.com
2) Timing - JC and Larry Kudlow are still hyping the heck out of the fantastic "recovery".
Does this mean JC has all his puts in place and is readying his subscribers for the SM drop based on mainstream "concern" for deficits and the dollar?
If so, Dave Tice and Tim Wood will be vindicated in SPADES.
Got gold?
Mr Gresham
(01/04/04; 00:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 114550)
"Fed's Folly Will Come Due in 2004"
http://www.thestreet.com/_more/markets/detox/10134346.html
I know I should give you some snips, but this Peter Eavis' piece is worth a complete read. In fact, I might even give it another go, after I unwind the massive dumb .pdf that has my laptop overheating ;(
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