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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/4/2004 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) elevator guy (1/4/04; 23:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 114600) Conflicting scenarios? Hi, everybody. Elevator Guy has been busy building a business, but now I am coming out of lurking with a question for anyone who cares to answer.We all know the US dollar is being devalued right now, and that if oil moves large scale towards Euros, the Fed's stranglehold will be lost. Right so far? Many here post ominous prophecies of the demise of the USD as the pre-eminent reserve currency, and the decline of the US in general, massive inflation at home, gold's meteroric rise, etc, etc.But meanwhile, the United States oil interests are feverishly working on maintaining and securing oil sources. Many of these ambitious undertakings have been documented, and need little proving. It is clear enough that the USA is manuevering to a position of strength, which is in keeping with the actions of any world power during their time in the sun. History is full of nations that were once prosperous through imperialsim, and as long as there are commodities to be gleaned from the far flung battelfields, the empire thrives. And if the USA still has the worlds' most powerful military machine, it is no surprise to see a grab for the prize of our industrialized time, which prize is oil.So my question is, if the US finds all the oil it needs, will the USD still undergo what seems to be an inevitable and massive correction, foretold by Another as resulting in $30,000 gold? (Not that gold is worth more, but the real "value" of the dollar just becoming clear when its day of hedgemony has run its course)On the one hand, its seems clear that the US Dollar will tumble like a house of cards, as the Euro moves to oil. This sea change would bring great changes to the lifestyle of average Americans, and a lessening of political power of the USA.But if the USA can secure enough oil for its needs, is this end-game scenario gauranteed? Could plentiful oil stall the demise of the USD, and prolong the era of what Another calls the American experience? mikal (1/4/04; 23:32:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114599) Bureaucratic heads I have to agree with Mr. Beaman.At least those bureaucrats aren't as empty-headed as some claim. But they are experts at burying their head in the sand! mikal (1/4/04; 23:22:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114598) Head http://www.etherzone.com/2004/beam010504.shtml STOOL DAYSHILLARY'S HEALTH CARE PLAN - RECONSIDEREDBy: Roderick BeamanExcerpt: "Hillary was given the chairmanship of the committee to develop a health care plan but it was Magaziner's baby. The plan was comprehensive with suitable penalties for violations. There was something in it for every interest group and even had a provision for appropriate penalties. So that got my mind going and, as anyone who knows me will tell you, that's dangerous. Now Hillary is the junior senator from New York which also suffers with Charles Schumer. I figured maybe it's time to reconsider her health plan. One of the cornerstones of preventative health care is nutrition and one of the cornerstones of nutrition is fibre. The sign of whether you are getting enough fibre, is if your stool floats. If it doesn't float, you're not getting enough of fibre.Well, we could have a brand new federal bureaucracy called the Stool Health Inspection Team (You do the acronym). They could be outfitted with hats and coats emblazoned with the initials and a representative stationed in every public lavatory in the country. Before anyone would flush, the inspector would go in and check to see if the stool floated. If not, the individual would be fined. I mean, after all, such an offense would be contributing to disease and possibly costing society, wouldn't it? We could have reports to the Secretary for compliance as well as to the President. The bureau chief could be called the S.H.I.T. Head. Someone would shout, 'Oh, ----' and he could respond, 'Yes?' The possibilities are mind boggling. Actually, I though the whole thing was a bunch of... well, you get the point." specie-man (1/4/04; 22:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 114597) @steady - song quote >>>being on tv is not an honor, nor is it a duty! some singer said something like that.<<<That was Neil Young, from his recent "Greendale" CD.A masterpiece in my opinion (if you're a fan of that type of music). ax (1/4/04; 22:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114596) MINE SET - THANKS, READ IT THANKS CHRIS - I READ THE MINE SET. Chris Powell (1/4/04; 21:35:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 114595) Reason for spike up in gold, down in dollar http://www.jsmineset.com/ Jim Sinclair attributes this Asian market action to Fed Governor Bernanke's speech in San Diego, which seems to assert the Fed's belief that it can keep dollar interest rates low forever. See Sinclair's commentary headlined "Asia Tonight." ax (1/4/04; 21:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114594) WHAT IS REASON FOR SPIKE? ANYONE KNOW WHY THE SPIKE OF GOLD UP/ USD DOWN? THIS AM INASIA? There can be alot of reasons but I don't know of anything particularly new , or sudden just now. Does anyone? Chris Powell (1/4/04; 21:02:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114593) Greenspan in 1996 and this weekend I would argue that, in San Diego, Greenspan mayhave been going a lot farther than his commentsquoted from Tokyo in 1996. For the central bankto influence the economy "if necessary in rare circumstances, through direct intervention inmarket events" -- the Tokyo comments -- seems much different than intervening INDIRECTLY and SURREPTITIOUSLY, through intermediaries, and CONTINUOUSLY, as a CONSTANT POLICY, over the course of many years, as has been the case with the U.S. government's intervention in the gold market and now, it seems increasingly, thanks to GATA's recent research, with long bonds, and even with certain commodities. Gandalf the White (1/4/04; 20:56:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114592) Everyone can read a "PICTURE" link this one ! <;-) http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 Can you say DOWN GAP OPENING for the US$ to new lows !Click on the bottom right corner of the Chart at the above LINK and see why PHYSICAL GOLD is JUMPING in HK !<;-) a nation of one (1/4/04; 20:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114591) to goldquest (1/4/04; 19:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 114585) Greenspan: "We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through DIRECT INTERVENTION IN MARKET EVENTS." [goldquest's emphasis.]That is an overt proclamation that, in these areas, absolute power has been siezed. I believe that it necessarily implies that additional -and almost certainly very ruthless and profoundly constrictive- measures that have previously been developed are now in motion and will ultimately be put into place. a nation of one (1/4/04; 20:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114590) 418 (wupy) a nation of one (1/4/04; 20:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114589) my outlook for gold in 2004 I think the price of gold will go up. How far is a good question, and so is when. There are a lot of factors that are influencing it, and a lot more that could. Therefore there is uncertainty. But right now it looks like a duck. It is quacking like a duck. And it is paddling like a duck. Therefore, I think it is probably a duck. By this I don't mean an ugly duckling, but a duck, though, soon, it may fly like a swan.One thing that I think is very likely to happen this year is that more people will become aware of its increase, and that this will make its price go higher, faster. Who these people are is important. They will not yet be the Toms and Sallys who work and save, but will probably consist more of the types of people who are in the business of selling stocks and bonds, and others who are in positions above them. Additionally, more articles favorable to gold will be published on the Internet and in newspapers and magazines, and more news and financial programs on TV will mention gold positively also. This will give people who are alert the incentive to buy gold and gold-related instruments. But alertness will still required. The day may come when gold's increase will be noticed even by those who are not paying attention. What matters is who notices, who does not notice, and when, because that will clarify what happens next.World events have for some time been moving among potentialities that can be expected to eventuate consistent with this picture. It is hard to imagine an event, or a sequence of events, or a process, that would give substantial reason for gold to decline in value. Even verbal conjectures that I have seen about possible measures against gold seem confined to reactions whose effects would not negatively effect gold's real value in dollar terms.I told my father's family in 1992 that this was going to happen. My brother and sister have done nothing. Their step-mother, my Mom, bless her heart, took my advice, after ten years of unrelenting persuasion. She is glad now. For you and me big things lie ahead. That which we have known is behind us. We have only to witness and to endure what is yet to come. Operative (1/4/04; 19:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114588) Government Bonds in 2004 http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=acLtpkd_PJjw If one lives in a flood plain, it is a good idea to acquire flood insurance. If one lives in an area with rising debt levels, it would be prudent to obtain some insurance, aka Gold/Silver. Waverider (1/4/04; 19:14:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114587) And... http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i&w=5&t=l&a=2 ...from the US$ C(r)ash perspective... Waverider (1/4/04; 19:10:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114586) Euro http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2 ...is up 1.26% at 1.2658 at the moment and the Yen's at 106.87 - where's the Japanese PTT tonight? goldquest (1/4/04; 19:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 114585) Greenspan's San Diego Comments are not that suprising.November 18, 1996 at the Federation of Bankers Association of Japan, Tokyo, Japan. Greenspan's comments on market intervention: "Thus governments have been given certain responsibilities related to their banking and financial systems that must be balanced. We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through DIRECT INTERVENTION IN MARKET EVENTS." My emphasis. steady (1/4/04; 18:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114584) stuff being on tv is not an honor, nor is it a duty! some singer said something like that.has there really been any new new gold news?banks are still short, the pot is bubblingsomeone keeps testing them to see what they do, those short should have played a better hand and kept there fimg mouth shut, but there constant ramblings obver the past two years have done nothing but make them and there stoogies stand out like, yellow snow out past the back porch. obvioulsly they are not good poker players once a week.demand is up , supply is down, what else do you need to know?besides the dinar is going to have a banner year in sales and at one point they will start to use the dirham in the same breath more frequently. can usa gold get some of those things, ya know true gold bug collectors might like to have some of the new early editions of them coins. Chris Powell (1/4/04; 18:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114583) Fed chairman's speech in San Diego http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1824 Did Greenspan just rationalize Fed's intervention inmarkets far beyond short-term interest rates?To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Gold Standard (1/4/04; 16:57:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 114581) OBL and his alleged tapes I personally find it strange that Bin Laden, the mastermind of a ruthless attack carried out with military precision from a cave in the Afghani desert, does not appear to even possess a video-cam, let alone a disposable camera.My view is that he is rotting in whatever hell he used to believe in.Cheers! GS slingshot (1/4/04; 16:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114580) Gold and the New Year Get Ready for Here I Come. Earth, Wind and Fire?Wishing all a Happy New Year. Yepper, Better late than never. Knocking out the dents in my armor, especially in my helmet. Sharpening up the blade of my sword and sewing the rips and tears in my clothes. Oh yes, waterprofing my boots. Getting ready for 2004! In the New Year I will try not to be a Doom and Gloomer in the eyes of others by waiting for questions concerning gold,instead of giving advise. Remain ever positive with any pullback in price a buying opportunity.In 2004,Its Gold for Sure!Slingshot-----------------<> Caradoc (1/4/04; 16:33:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114579) Two FBI agents disagree with French version of airline incidents http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/Directors%20Notebook.htm#AT Snips from link above:..."Let me get this straight. You have two F-16's escorting one Air France flight into LAX, other Air France flights cancelled, meetings involving [Secretary of State Colin] Powell, French Intelligence and us [the FBI], and the reason provided to the media was essentially that it was a case of mistaken identity?" ..."Where in the h--- do they get this stuff? I know we have our share of problems, but we're not stupid."So, two individuals with some involvement in the matter are insulted by version of the story which downplays the threat. The agents remain anonymous and there's nothing to document the conversation, but during the months I've tracked Hagmann's website he has repeatedly been first with stories that are confirmed days later by government ot mass media.Implication for precious metals as investment is that we are living in a time of uncertainty.Caradoc DryWasher (1/4/04; 16:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114578) 'Osama' tape tells Muslims to fight http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,8325176%255E1702,00.html Snips:A TAPE recording said to be of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has urged Muslims to continue fighting a jihad, or holy war, rather than co-operating with Middle East peace efforts"My message is to incite you against the conspiracies, especially those uncovered by the occupation of the crusaders in Baghdad under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, and also the situation in (Jerusalem) under the deceptions of the road map and the Geneva initiative," the speaker said. "The occupation of Iraq is the beginning of the full occupation of the other Gulf states. ... The Gulf is the key for control of the world in the point of view of the big powers because of the presence of the biggest deposits of oil."DryWasher Comment:This short article is worth reading because it presents an insight into the "War on Terror" as seen from the Osama bin Laden perspective. Don't expect this war to be over any time soon. This is bad news for the economy and good news for the Gold markets. 21mabry (1/4/04; 15:39:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 114577) Beligan Thanks for your response.What is the attitude of the gold investor in europe?Are they disapointed do they feel there is no gold bull?Do thet feel its on the horizon?Does golds relationship to the dollar keep european gold holders from benifiting from this gold move higher against the dollar?How does a european play this gold market?I am not writing about long term gold holders but the ordinary citizen who may be attracted to gold?As usual your answers always enlighten me to world opinions.21 Sundeck (1/4/04; 15:00:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114576) Rest of world gets sick of propping up Bush's deficit http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/04/1073151209953.html Snips:"...The US economy is reflating fast. Too fast? Much depends on Asia, John Garnaut writes.The global flirtation with deflation is already last year's story. It has been washed away by torrents of money that the US Federal Reserve and the White House have let loose on the world. The US central bank has never been so committed to keeping the price of money low. Few American presidents have been so profligate. With the help of Wall Street's financial markets, which are linking savers with spenders more efficiently than ever, their monetary and fiscal policies have reflated the world's economies. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and President Bush kick-started the US economy to have it roaring at an annualised 8.2 per cent in the September quarter. They also helped rescue East Asia from years of deflation, via a complex monetary and currency reaction.Higher prices are certain to flow through import prices to Australia, mitigated in the short term by the strength of the seemingly irrepressible Australian dollar......Harvinder Kalirai, State Street Global Market's Asia Pacific strategist, says it is difficult to underestimate what ultra-low 1 per cent interest rates will do to an American economy which he calculates is already growing at capacity.US interest rates are now further below the American GDP growth rate than at any time since the 1970s. The "output gap" that measures the difference between the economy's production and potential has probably already closed. By the end of next year, Kalirai predicts the effects of a falling US dollar on US import prices, rising prices transmitted through Chinese and Japanese exports, and a tight US labour market (despite rising unemployment) will translate into a US inflation reading above 3 per cent."The Fed's goal is not to avoid deflation but to create inflation" says Kalirai."The scope for upward adjustments for US rates is quite dramatic." Economists like Kalirai say the US dollar's fall was triggered by the extreme monetary and fiscal policies of Greenspan and Bush, which lowered the purchasing power of the US dollar. Their liquidity glut is now being transmitted to the rest of the world by frenetic central bank buying in foreign exchange dealing rooms. ....There has been dissension on the Bank of Japan board about whether to extend its US dollar-buying program. And if Chinese inflation accelerates too far, the People's Bank of China could choose to loosen its currency peg and slow its purchases of US dollars. Only faith from the East Asian central banks - or perhaps a continuation of the American economy's phenomenal productivity rates - may stand between the US and a currency fall, interest rate spike, investment slump, equity market fall and sub-standard economic growth. ..."Sundeck:An interesting discussion of what may lie ahead as the "dollar crisis" plays out... Belgian (1/4/04; 14:42:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 114575) @marbry21 : Gold and the world ? Indeed Sir, the biggest part of POG's rise is due to the declining exchange rate of the dollar-numeraire wich still is, Gold's antithesis ! Hereby must be taken into account that Gold's low of 253$/Oz was an overshooting (anomaly) that provoked the WAG countermeasure. We will never, ever know the *real* reasons for the obscene POG decline to 253$ and the WAG measure.Gold remains in the Unfree dollar gold market, dominated by gold-paper-contracts as to support the dollar in the dollar reserve system. Let us hope that goldbugs start to realize that POG has very little to do with the realities of offer/demand and is managed pricewise as a monetary element in a strict dollar environment. Forget everything about goldmining figures and jewelry or gold investment statistics in relation to the POG !As long as Gold stays in the dollar-system, POG will not run away in a spectacular fashion (the thousands). Gold must be set... or break free, from its dollar shackels. Freegold,... remember ?When POG ran from 41$ to 850$ ('71 > '80)...it wasn't because of jewelry-mining, offer/demand statistics. It wasn't about high IRs or price-inflation. It was about the dollar and oil without the existance of an alternative reserve currency. That same dollar has been devaluing ever since that period of the eighties and the builders (architects) of Another currency-system had to keep supporting the existing dollar system whilst constructing the alternative. That's why everybody kept Gold contained in concert for dollar support, the globe's reserve currency and trading numeraire.Now the dollar has to face strength or weakness against the opposing triumvirate of Gold - Oil - euro, wich will set Gold Free in euro and give the remaining oil-reserves, the value that they deserve. Today, a Belgian Bilderberger, stated that the euro is the most remarkable financial (succesfull) event of this decade ! Any fiat currency with the ambition to replace the dollar-reserve has to be a friend of Gold and needs oil-trust as a transitional hub. How many other currencies would like to walk away from their status of dollar-derivative and join the future euro-Gold umbrella ??? That's why CB-Goldreserves have to be re-distributed amongst non EU CBs. Or/and in the case of China and Russia, gold-exploration and mining, intensively encouraged as to increase their CB goldreserves.CBs know very well, where they want the dollar exchange rate and the appropiate POG. Occasional gold (paper) market disturbances are not tolerated and corrected asap, by both camps of the double sided ($-€) Gold business. But the general perception must remain that central bankers are dummies ! Wich is, imo, certainly not the case. There are "two" Gold cartels and not one as generally percepted ! The CoinGuy (1/4/04; 14:38:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 114574) Dr. Marc Faber's Comments for 2004 http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/32991.html Snippit:I remain convinced that the present 'strong' recovery phase in the US economy won't last for long, as it is totally artificial. There are simply too many imbalances in the system, as reflected by a record low national saving rate, record household debts, and record trade and current account deficits, for this recovery to lead to sustainable strong growth that would justify the present stock valuations. I have quoted Joseph Schumpeter in previous reports, but for the benefit of some of our new readers, I quote him here once again regarding the subject of economic recoveries, that are purely a consequence of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Comment: For those who bought Marc's book early last year, 2003 turned out be rather profitable. Although, the arguments on both sides(Bulls/Bears & Deflation/Inflation) of the equation are already set in stone. How this turns out will be one for the history books, this I am sure of. As if the excesses haven't been? The (physical) CoinGuy Goldilox (1/4/04; 14:33:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114573) Golden Helmets And the guys in the Golden helmets intercept in overtime to move on to Philly in the NFL playoffs. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/4/04; 14:24:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114572) In bookstores it retails for $14.95, but you know the author! Get it here for $5.95 http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
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