All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Goldilox (06/04/03; 23:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 104130)
Baseball
G'dome and 21mabry:
I hope you're ready for the Giants. They are hopping mad after blowing it in game 6 last year, and they are much better in sync as a team this year.
21mabry (06/04/03; 23:46:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 104129)
Goldendome
Hockey is the most exciting sport there is I live in red wing country.I saw went and saw tigers stop Clemons try at 300 the other day,will be their only sell out of the year.Well Gdome I am hitting the hay its 3 hours latter here in the east go ducks. 21
Goldendome (06/04/03; 23:22:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 104128)
@21mabry
Mariners--Amazing what an 8 game winning streak will do for confidence! If only the season would end in June, the mariners might have won a few championships. Mabry, I still think the American league goes through Yankee Statium in Sept., maybe Oct.
I recently bought one of those 46 inch HDTV's after price deflation brought them down to a more reasonable price. The Hockey is quite a show on the Big Screen. My wife, at first, was hiding her eyes and "ooohing", everytime someone got boarded. Don't watch much of the regular season, but the last few years have really enjoyed following the games once the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin. After watching the fast pace of hockey (regardless the usual paucity of scoring), returning to watch the slow pace of Baseball is difficult. BTW the Anaheim Mighty Ducks tied the Final series at 2 games a piece with 2 overtime wins at Anaheim. The series resumes at the New Jersey Devils tomorrow night.
I know this is off usual subject and appologize if offending, but it seems to be an extremely slow night with only about a post an hour for the last 5 hours. Where is everyone?------Gdome
21mabry (06/04/03; 23:13:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 104127)
Energy
Blackblade I never would presume to put words in your mouth but it seems to me you feel energy investors are in for a bull market run for at least a few years. Energy funds that I follow have had a good run so far this year some up 15 to 18 percent ytd.Do you feel people have caught on to energy investing yet,I dont really hear cnbc talking alot about these funds gains.Maybe I missed those segments, but if the public has not got in these funds yet maybe there are further big gains ahead. I just wonder if these funds are the place for new money after there recent gains.21
21mabry (06/04/03; 23:00:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 104126)
Manias
I was reading a book about railroad construction and funding in the U.S. in the 19th century.It just strikes you how all financial manias suck people in no matter the century or the country, railroad stock and bond issues were floated on nothing more than a company name and a promise, just like the tech mania in our time.People have never really changed have we. An interesting side note when a railline was built in the coal burning days the downwind side of the track was pretty messy and smokey, hence are saying their from the wrong side of the tracks. Goldendome you may have to go see the mariners this year they might win the american league.
Hektor (06/04/03; 22:46:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 104125)
BlackBlade
The yen are not "worthless," but are just the opposite -- they are worth too much and the BOJ wants to sell them to reduce their value.
Black Blade (06/04/03; 22:17:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 104124)
Market Wrap Up – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippits:
My Laundry List of Economic Worries
The fact that we are in the midst of a storm is more apparent with each passing day. The Fed will meet this month to consider the use of "unconventional means" should the markets and economy fail to recover in response to monetary or fiscal stimulus. The idiotic assumption that the biggest worry is deflation at a time the government is already running massive budget deficits is ludicrous. The Fed is pumping vast amounts of liquidity into the system. Interest rates are at half-century lows. The housing and bond market are in bubble territory. Consumers are borrowing and spending feverishly. The trade deficit is perpetually setting records. Equity valuations border on absurdity. Energy prices are rising. And the dollar looks like it is about to fall off a cliff.
All this tells me deflation is the least of our worries.
Also:
The best advice I could give now is caveat emptor. If you're an agile trader, then trade. However, you better have a hedge. Without one, you are exposed to any unexpected event. On the other hand, if you are truly are a long-term investor, then invest in what the fundamentals are pointing to--a falling dollar and a price rise in the "things" that you need. The rise in natural gas at this stage of the weather cycle is indicating that supplies are tight and that suppliers will have difficulty getting winter storage levels back to capacity. Heaven help us if we experience even a normal winter much less a harsh one or a warmer then normal summer. Oil prices are expected to peak within this decade or the middle of the next decade depending on which forecast you view. The geologists say 2003-2006. The optimists say 2016. Regardless of who is right, supplies and the price are likely to climb throughout this decade as demand continues to grow; while production decline curves accelerate.
With the dollar expected to decline further, if a crisis doesn't erupt first sending it into a freefall, you should be diversified into hard currencies and at least own some silver and gold. With central banks and especially the Fed putting the metal to the monetary pedal, the price of the paper you hold is depreciating rapidly to the tune of 30% over the last year against the euro--about half that against other major currencies. Other basic items that I believe will do well this decade, besides precious metals, are food and water. With water, there are few options to choose from, but they are there if you look hard enough. Finally, if you have enough confidence in your convictions and are not startled by short-term moves or manias, I would also be short. The degree to which you go short depends on your risk tolerance, ability to absorb short-term pain and understanding of the fundamentals.
Black Blade: Interesting article. I was reading an article that goes into the rising competition for world oil supply in a science journal no less. The article focused mainly on the Chinese who went from net exporters of oil to net importers and the demand is growing. I see that gold is taking a bit of a hit tonight and the dollar is gaining a bit of ground. This is likely in anticipation of tomorrow's ECB interest rate cut. I suspect a 50 bps cut is more likely as the ECB would like to pummel the Euro to stimulate the EU out of a deepening cycle of recession. Meanwhile Japan is rumored to be back to "stealth" intervention selling worthless Yen to whoever is foolish enough to accept it and buying dollars. Everyone it seems wants to debase their currency. "Interesting Times"
Goldendome (06/04/03; 19:43:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 104123)
@21 Mabry..."The Stock Market is singing a Sirens Song."
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Yes Sir, very probably. I just finished reading a rather extensive piece on the subject that refers to the false bull-market signals that have occurred in Japan in the last number of years. Moving avgs. crossing each other to the upside, briefly breaking above the shoulder in head and shoulders formations, etc. Here is I thought a catchy quote: ...There is an old saying in certain market circles that goes like this. "The public lost their money in 1929 and 1930. The smart guys lost their money in 1931 and the really, really smart guys lost their money in 1932." Of course the basic message of this little quip is that bear markets do their best to strip virtually everyone of their hard earned wealth. It's just the nature of the game.
Link provided: Hope it works, ok..........Gdome
Trurl (06/04/03; 19:24:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 104122)
Black Blade #104115
I've always liked my father's spin on Santayana:
"Those who don't know history are doomed to hear it repeated."
He being a professor and all...
Goldilox (06/04/03; 18:27:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 104120)
Opps
Sorry for the redundant titling, it's an error not an effect.
goldilox
Goldilox (06/04/03; 18:24:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 104119)
Has World Oil Production Peaked? Has World Oil Production Peaked? Has World Oil Production Peaked? Has the World's Oil production Peaked?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2003/0528.htm
snippit:
?Historians some years from now are going to get the giggles because my 2001 book (Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage) failed to identify the year 2000 peak, even after it happened. My book attracted some criticism because it was too gloomy; turns out I wasn't gloomy enough. Back when I expected the peak to arrive around 2004, the thought of life in the post-peak years was frightening. So what has happened since the peak year 2000? More than a million jobs lost in the U.S.A., many retirement funds wiped out, government budget surplus reduced to deficit, interest rates near zero unable to jumpstart the economy. Even the loss of the World Trade Center was a Middle East byproduct. It exceeds my worst fears.'
Goldilox:
An article by Bill Powers, editor of the Canadian Energy Viewpoint, including his analysis of declining production in OPEC and some production numbers for support. I'm sure BB has a better idea of the validity of those number than I do, but here's the link to the article over at Puplava's site.
CoBra(too) (06/04/03; 18:19:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 104118)
Late Nite Musings ...
... The western, now post industrialized, economies have smartly moved on to the next level of production. While the production of tangible and in some cases even usable goods have declined to a trickle - why, the Chinese can do it cheaper in some cases even better - the service sector, led by the financial service industry has grown exponentially in the US. Whatever memories of a productive economy we might have had is a delusion.
Well, why not. Somebody has to recycle the exponentially growing dollar debt, re-package it and sell it to the rest of the world in almost risk free, derivative hedged nutritious portions. After all the myriads of Dollar paper, uh, eletronic blips can't be digested wholesale anymore -says Greenspan - though, he finds it's a mere problem of the digestive tract. If the global community can't recycle the green stuff as rapidly as we- the FED - can grow it, then it becomes a problem of indigestion. And - even if the nutrition value of the green fodder decraeses with every repo any other fodder is still not adequately matching the mass production of at least fodder.
As some alternate paper and nutrition food producers are slowly expanding their gardens, the worlds main greenery is stepping up its production frantically in order not to lose any market share. In the process they also hedge their bets and in an unfriendly manner take over the energy suppliers to their greenhouses.
As the yields of the crop is becoming more and more ungainly and now slowly turning negative - the nutrition value of "Soylent Green" is diminishing exponentially.
... yearning for the old green, green grass of home ... and a golden sunrise - cb2
R Powell (06/04/03; 17:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 104117)
Jacob Marley
Your words....
" And these were the big boys. How then will any of you as "small spec", fare any better with your single or double digit total contracts??? "
Since you asked, quite well, thank you, I caught both the spike up and retraction down in both gold and silver. I'm currently still short silver (short term) but ready to reverse at the drop of a pin. I'm always long silver, long term but always hedged. I'm not rich from trading but I am on the positive side, but, I do not recommend this endeavor, gambling, investing, whatever (pick a name) as it is much too risky, requires great effort and time, and is too hard to understand without much effort, at least, more than most people are willing to commit. Physical possession has almost no traps, pitfalls, room for error, potential for mistakes etc.
Rich
R Powell (06/04/03; 17:36:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 104116)
Jacob Marley
Private bankruptcy does not indicate Exchange default
Any bankruptcy by any individual and/or company often leads to pennies paid on the dollar for prior contracts or obligations. This should not be confused with legitimate futures contracts which are 98% of the time settled in cash, not gold, silver, cotton or soybeans. Entrance into the exchange casino requires margin money up front and immediate additional funds if so dictated by the market movements. All trades are cleared daily with the clearing houses insuring payment for the winners. It's mostly a cash exchange with the potential for actual delivery.
Please do not confuse these exchanges with covert, private deals which default as a result of bankruptcy. The only thing these transactions have in common is that both are derivatives of the POG. Legitimate, needed drugs are available with a doctor's prescription from a pharmacy for a cost. Illegal drugs are available from your local coked out drug lord for a cost. I'll not even suggest that the two can be compared nor would I suggest that just because you might get ripped off by the drug dealer, that therefore pharmacies are dangerous. Comparing private bankruptcy settlements to futures derivatives backed by the exchanges is like comparing apples to dumptrucks or rattlesnakes to guinea pigs. Waiting for the futures exchanges to default might require many livetimes. They are simply that--Exchanges--existing by charging a small transaction fee. Private, OTC deals are simply an entirely different ballgame.
Rich
Black Blade (06/04/03; 17:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 104115)
Cobra(too) - memories
Ah yes, as philosopher George Santayana said:
"Those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it"
Such is life. Cheers!
- Black Blade
off to the gym!
CoBra(too) (06/04/03; 17:10:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 104114)
NEM's Yandal Bluff -
@ J. Marley - I guess you've touched reality.
The mega bullion bank hedgers are seemingly protected and vice versa protect their major producing hedgers. Otherwise, we'd have seen Ashanti type defaults at POG 330, 350, 370 or 390. Whoever lastly holds the bag is still unknown, though we may speculate that these guys got some kind of a carte blanche from very high up - and the bag is as always held by their trusting citizens and tax payers.
@ CM - Diplomacy is about elegantly evading reality, while the globe is now challenged by a group of US admin officials stuffing their blatant arrogance down our throats, unfiltered. At least we know where we stand - expendable ... Welcome to the new world (dis) order ... cb2
PS - and the ECB may well succumb to the international game of cutting IR's by 50bp and join the race to the bottom ... or is it beggar thy neighbour all over again ... ?
Brilliant, we sure came a long way from the memories of the 30's ...
R Powell (06/04/03; 17:03:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 104113)
Socrates964
Earlier today you wrote...
"Thanks for your gracious comments. I'm actually going to be travelling quite a bit as an attempt to stave off boredom with gold, which is a very exciting market in dollars, but a very dull market in euros/C$. I talked to my technical analysis guru last week who makes 40-50% annual returns trading Fib patterns year in year out, and he admitted that he was clueless as to which way the markets were going for the first time in 40 years but suspects that the US is heading for hyperinflation"
I've always been suspicious of any and all trading systems. I suspect that excellent money management is more important than any system and that with good management, money can be made even with the toss of a coin determining one's position. However, commonly traded systems often become self-fulfilling prophesies which can be helpful if traded properly.
All that is an idle thought as I really wanted to say "Fare thee well" on your travels and also wanted to suggest that if the gold market in euros is boring, there are many others that may offer a greater challenge.
Remember too, we're never more than an internet connection away and we'll expect a full report either as you travel or upon your return. Have fun! ;>)
Rich
Cavan Man (06/04/03; 16:52:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 104112)
goldquest
Yeah, and that "sea of oil" was worth blowing the kid's arms off and 86ing his parents. Go ahead and pull this eh?
Cavan Man (06/04/03; 16:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 104111)
Jacob Marley
Great point! That's FOA 101.
goldquest (06/04/03; 16:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 104110)
Yeah, but...
does it really matter that the crooks in the White House,Defense Dept., Congress and big oil, lied to the American people and the rest of the world, when they have real criminals to pursue? The Martha Stewarts of the world must be taken off the streets, to make them safer for , "our children!" After all, Martha did cash in her stocks, worth about $200,000. How dare she! That is about the same amount that Hillery Clinton made a few years ago on her "Hot" tip on the futures market! Wink-Wink! It is coming unraveled for the gang of thieves. Best get your gold in possession while you can!
Jacob Marley (06/04/03; 16:43:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 104109)
Newmont beats the bullion banks into submission ?? - #104106
Don't you think that's a bit of spin? Can you not see what this is perfect template of? When push comes to shove and deliverability is understood to be impossible without killing the deliverer ---- what happened?????
?????
Negotiate cash out at pennies on the dollar !!!! And no gold changed hands that might have helped set up this ever elusive "short squeeze".
And these were the big boys. How then will any of you as "small spec", fare any better with your single or double digit total contracts???
Just a foretaste of how it's going to work on down the line.
Cavan Man (06/04/03; 16:37:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 104108)
Wolfowitz
Really, that is completely outrageous. It must be a misquote. I can't believe it.
Cavan Man (06/04/03; 15:53:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 104107)
This information is relevant to the gold market guys.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,970331,00.html
Wolfowitz: Iraq war was about oil
George Wright
Wednesday June 4, 2003
Oil was the main reason for military action against Iraq, a leading White House hawk has claimed, confirming the worst fears of those opposed to the US-led war.
The US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz - who has already undermined Tony Blair's position over weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by describing them as a "bureaucratic" excuse for war - has now gone further by claiming the real motive was that Iraq is "swimming" in oil.
The latest comments were made by Mr Wolfowitz in an address to delegates at an Asian security summit in Singapore at the weekend, and reported today by German newspapers Der Tagesspiegel and Die Welt.
Asked why a nuclear power such as North Korea was being treated differently from Iraq, where hardly any weapons of mass destruction had been found, the deputy defence minister said: "Let's look at it simply. The most important difference between North Korea and Iraq is that economically, we just had no choice in Iraq. The country swims on a sea of oil."
Mr Wolfowitz went on to tell journalists at the conference that the US was set on a path of negotiation to help defuse tensions between North Korea and its neighbours - in contrast to the more belligerent attitude the Bush administration displayed in its dealings with Iraq.
His latest comments follow his widely reported statement from an interview in Vanity Fair last month, in which he said that "for reasons that have a lot to do with the US government bureaucracy, we settled on the one issue that everyone could agree on: weapons of mass destruction."
Prior to that, his boss, defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, had already undermined the British government's position by saying Saddam Hussein may have destroyed his banned weapons before the war.
Mr Wolfowitz's frank assessment of the importance of oil could not come at a worse time for the US and UK governments, which are both facing fierce criticism at home and abroad over allegations that they exaggerated the threat posed by Saddam Hussein in order to justify the war.
Amid growing calls from all parties for a public inquiry, the foreign affairs select committee announced last night it would investigate claims that the UK government misled the country over its evidence of Iraq's WMD.
The move is a major setback for Tony Blair, who had hoped to contain any inquiry within the intelligence and security committee, which meets in secret and reports to the prime minister.
In the US, the failure to find solid proof of chemical, biological and nuclear arms in Iraq has raised similar concerns over Mr Bush's justification for the war and prompted calls for congressional investigations.
Mr Wolfowitz is viewed as one of the most hawkish members of the Bush administration. The 57-year old expert in international relations was a strong advocate of military action against Afghanistan and Iraq.
Following the September 11 terror attacks on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon, Mr Wolfowitz pledged that the US would pursue terrorists and "end" states' harbouring or sponsoring of militants.
Prior to his appointment to the Bush cabinet in February 2001, Mr Wolfowitz was dean and professor of international relations at the Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), of the Johns Hopkins University.
Chris Powell (06/04/03; 14:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 104106)
Newmont beats the bullion banks into submission
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1531
Latest GATA dispatch.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Black Blade (06/04/03; 14:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 104105)
With jobs scarce, more than half of this year's college graduates will head home to Mom and Dad.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/06/02/pf/college/q_gradhome/index.htm
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Study hard, get into a good college, graduate -- move back in with Mom and Dad? That's hardly what most parents had in mind as they were cutting checks for upwards of $100,000 to cover college costs. But the moribund economy has created some of the dimmest job prospects in years for grads. According to a study by the National Association of Colleges and Employers, 42 percent of employers plan to hire fewer new college graduates than they did last year. Meanwhile, only a few graduates with the most lucrative degrees can expect higher starting salaries than in years past. As a result, the Class of 2003 finds its ranks filled with so-called "boomerang" twenty-somethings. In fact, 61 percent of college seniors plan to return to their family home after graduation, according to a survey taken this spring by Monster.com. This year's class isn't the only one living at home, however. Young adults in their twenties -- some armed with graduate degrees -- have also returned to the nest.
Black Blade: With the "Bone Pile" growing and fewer jobs a lot of these new grads are finding it harder to land a job. Even those with some work experience are coming home to live with parents. I saw a report not long ago about high tech engineers and software programmers leaving the high priced Silicon Valley after being laid off to live with mom and pop. "Interesting Times"
Black Blade (06/04/03; 14:24:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 104104)
Thanks to the recent market rally, stocks are awfully expensive again.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/06/03/markets/expensive/index.htm
Snippit:
Take a look at what's been happening in the stock market, where investors have wholeheartedly embraced the Fed's promise to keep rates nice and low for a good long time by buying everything in sight. And while it was possible earlier this year to argue that stocks were at something like an appropriate valuation, you'd be hard-pressed to call them anything other than expensive at this point. If you look at earnings under generally accepted accounting principles, the S&P 500 is trading a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.4, up from 27.5 at the end of March. Before 1998, it had never been above 30. If you are a kind and forgiving person, you can use pro forma earnings -- the numbers that companies post before charges for stuff like plant closings, layoffs, and the like. On that basis, the S&P's P/E is 19.7, a level rarely seen before the gaga years of the late 1990s.
Black Blade: Indeed, stock valuations are absurd and we appear to be reentering the bubble again. The end result will be the same with the small fry getting burned as they get lured in and the big boys bailing out laughing at the suckers. I guess milking investors out of over $5 trillion the first time around was not enough.
Black Blade (06/04/03; 14:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 104103)
ADJUSTING NUMBERS TO THE POINT OF UNREALITY
http://www.nypost.com/business/217.htm
Snippit:
June 3, 2003 -- YOU probably didn't catch this on the news last week, but there are now 12 seasons in the year. Yeah, seasons. Not months. Who says so? Well, not me. It's the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which, starting with the politically important employment figure that will be released this Friday, has declared that the way it had been seasonally adjusting its numbers is no longer good enough. Starting with the tally for May - which will be released at precisely 8:30 a.m. Friday - the BLS will seasonally adjust its statistics each and every month. Officially the change is to something called the "Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment for Industry Employment Statistics." You can download a full academic paper on this from the BLS Web site.
The problem is, if you adjust a figure often enough you can completely lose touch with reality. And if you are adjusting monthly for the "seasons," why not daily? Why not change the numbers whenever they aren't to your liking? Naturally, both the job growth/loss figures and the unemployment rate will be the hottest topic of conversation this week, especially since the nation's "help wanted" ads index is currently at a 47-year low and more than 400,000 people each week are now filing new claims for unemployment insurance.
Black Blade: More statistical massage coming from the BLS. They hate raw data so they fudge the numbers a bit and "smooth" data with a few other statistical filters and then selectively release unemployment data. No one in government is too pleased when someone points out the real unemployment data but then few people with media access do that anyway. Just too painful to think about.
Gonlyold (06/04/03; 14:06:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 104102)
Reply to Topaz
Thank you, Topaz, for your informative clarification. I value information like that. Thanks again.
You commented that, "The "backing" today is more closely represented by the Human resources of a Nation/Bloc. In the case of America every man, woman and child is saddled with approx $30,000 Debt..." Much said in this verbage.
I won't extrapolate too much on the above except to opinion that it's interesting to note that there is no concerted effort in America to encourage the "human resources" to stay away from credit (debt). There are no economic programs to reward people for paying off their loans. There is no advertized cautions to keep people from selling off their future labor. If anything, they are constantly bombbarded with enticements to use credit. And once the human make up of America, or any country, becomes debt ridden, how can that counry itself, not be debt ridden?
Country's use their human resources as collateral for national loans. All that labor is valuable to the lenders. So the human collateral is important from the perspective of these loans.
But what happens when the future labor is all tapped out? The only thing the country can look forward to is being obligated and controlled by the lender. Not exactly a definition of freedom.
And what about the physical gold that's purchased with instruments of debt? The American dollar, i.e., the Federal Reserve Note (FRN), is an instrument of debt. If a debt instruments, FRN's, are used to buy non-debt gold, does not that physical gold now become a debt also? Can a bankrupt debtor own anything? Scarey.....
Great Albino Bat (06/04/03; 12:43:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 104101)
Prescription from Dr. GAB.....the way to health
Dr. GAB
June 4, 03
@usagold.com
The Patient:
XXIst Century World.
Diagnosis: Humongous constipation following decades of overindulgence in unsound monetary and financial practices.
Rx/
The patient will take daily enemas for the next ten years, to flush out all malinvestment and bankrupt companies. The patient's digestive system is blocked and this produces very bad breath and pronounced lassitude.
Hundreds of millions of inhabitants of the lower intestines will be flushed out, and will have to invent jobs for themselves.
Take a daily aspirin, and call me next year.
Signed,
The GAB.
Gandalf the White (06/04/03; 12:21:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 104100)
Yep -- AN ERROR !!!!
Forgetaboutit !
<;-)
Gandalf the White (06/04/03; 12:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 104099)
WOWSERS -- IT that REALLY you SPIKE ? or an ERROR ?
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
Someone please give me a confirmation second source !
<;-)
Socrates964 (06/04/03; 11:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 104098)
Dollar Bill
Thanks for your gracious comments. I'm actually going to be travelling quite a bit as an attempt to stave off boredom with gold, which is a very exciting market in dollars, but a very dull market in euros/C$. I talked to my technical analysis guru last week who makes 40-50% annual returns trading Fib patterns year in year out, and he admitted that he was clueless as to which way the markets were going for the first time in 40 years but suspects that the US is heading for hyperinflation.
From a macro point of view, this market feels like Argentina, in that it was obvious to anyone with a basic grounding in economics that the economy was going over the cliff by 1997, but one had to put up with 4 years of spinning before it actually happened. The lesson to be learned from that economy is that appearances are maintained for as long as it takes the elite to get their money out.
Perhaps the launch date of the new gold bullion fund (GLD) is our best variable for judging when this might happen.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (06/04/03; 11:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 104097)
Our Latest Buyers’ Group Special . . .
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/bullion.html
mikal (06/04/03; 10:42:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 104096)
@Dollar Bill
Well said.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (06/04/03; 10:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 104095)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html
Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?
MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.
Dollar Bill (06/04/03; 10:14:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 104094)
`*..*`
Socrates 964,
Dont forget that you have readers who look forward to your insights. That includes me. Stick around, it is interesting times.
John the Jute (06/04/03; 09:23:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 104093)
Thank you
On behalf of John H Watson MD, lately surgeon to Her Majesty's forces in Afghanistan, and myself, I would like to thank the folk of Centennial Precious Metals for sponsoring the contest, to thank Gandalf the White for organizing it, to thank the Lady Waverider for being away and so unable to win it, and to thank you all for information and stimulation.
21mabry (06/04/03; 09:21:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 104092)
(No Subject)
The stock market is singing her siren song trying to tempt the forgetful back in.She is like an old girlfriend you almost have forgotten about,then she calls you.O well we are all fools and prophets lifes a stage and were all in the cast.
LeSin (06/04/03; 08:07:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 104091)
IRAQ OIL - WAR OF WORDS - SOON DIPLOMACY IS OUT THE WINDOW -
http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2003/06/04/04161659_bod.shtml
Soon the Summer Evian, St Petersburg White Night Festivals and G-8,9 & 10 Summer Picnics and Garden Parties together with photo oportunities of forced smiles and painful handshakes will give way to the reality of a worthless US$ and rising star status of the EURO and its' right/will to have oil supply to World priced in EUROS.
All this along side of Free GOLD that is not tied to New York or London Paper Contracts. See continued low price paper gold as they unwind paper positions and throw more paper on the fire.
Yes, Belgian, quick as snap - they will announce disconnection from paper gold and physical real price physical gold.
The Coalition of the Willing that occupied a soverign nation and is stealing that nations natural resources
will lose more respect. That same coalition now claims to have a Road-Map for ME peace. Yes a ME peace together with free trade priced in US$.
What makes me think that these boys are off with the fairies.
Ari, Belgian - Many here - Hear & Do understand - Phycical Gold in most forms - Get you Some, Yes!
Cheers "S"
-----------------------------------------------------------
Article:
Russia won't be discriminated against in Iraq
US authorities will not allow any discrimination against Russian companies in Iraq, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said after a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council in Madrid on Wednesday. According to him, representatives of the US administration provided the necessary assurances to the Russian side during recent consultations in Moscow.
Mr. Ivanov stressed that Russian companies would participate in tenders for the development of Iraqi oilfields on equal terms with foreign companies. He expressed hope that Russian companies would manage to win the tenders, as they have vast experience in dealing with Iraq and are acquainted with the peculiarities of this country.
During his visit to St. Petersburg last weekend, US President George Bush also spoke about the possibility of Russian oil firms working in Iraq. However, it is unclear how much of the Iraqi pie Russian companies will get and how strong the Russian presence in Iraq will be. In this respect:
Mr. Bush indicated that Moscow should not expect any serious oil contracts with Baghdad
LeSin (06/04/03; 07:43:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 104090)
Russia's Reserves Soon To Be 50% EUROs
http://www.rbcnews.com/komment/komment.shtml
Soon All Will "WILL" March to the Same Beat - Cheers "S"
--------------------------------------------------------
Russia will switch to euro
The euro will make up at least a half of Russia's foreign exchange market in seven years, against the current 10 percent
During the 300th anniversary celebrations in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the cooperation between Russia and the European Union could result in expanding the euro zone beyond EU borders. He also noted that the Central Bank of Russia had been increasing the percentage of euros in Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves. According to analysts, Mr. Putin's statement is purely political, and it is unlikely to be followed by concrete economic steps. However, the Kremlin's political backing of the euro in the euro-dollar stand-off can help speed up the process of Russia's foreign currency diversification, which is taking place due to natural reasons. Economists believe that the euro's role in the Russian economy will be strengthening, and the European currency will reach parity with the dollar in a few years’ time.
According to economists, the euro has already gained a foothold in Russia. "I think the euro does not need the Russian President's political backing," Denis Rodionov, an economist with Brunswick UBS, told RBC Daily. In his view, Mr. Putin's words about transferring part of the Central Bank's reserves into euros are not a guide to action but just a statement of fact. "The Central Bank has been purchasing euros actively over the past six months, and it is no secret. However, this policy is aimed not at helping Europe support its currency but at diversifying Russia's reserves," Mr. Rodionov stressed. Alexey Vorobyov, an analyst with the Aton investment company, agrees. "As Europe remains Russia's largest trade partner, it is necessary to increase the share of euros in the Central Bank's reserves. This is necessary in order to satisfy the demand for the European currency on the market, and, consequently, to smooth fluctuations in the ruble's exchange rate against the euro," he said. According to experts, about a half of Russia's foreign trade operations are with Europe.
The euro has strengthened by about 20 percent against the dollar since the start of the year. Nevertheless, the dollar's position as ‘the world currency’ is still very strong. "The dollar will remain the ‘reserve currency’ for a long time to come, because the American economy is still the strongest in the world. The dollar is over 300 years old, and, in fact, it replaced gold as a reserve instrument. And the euro is just four years old, and it is by far not as strong," Mr. Vorobyov said. That is why the European currency will not be able to play a role comparable with the role of the dollar, at least over the next one or two years, he believes. Indeed, over the past hundred years, Americans have managed to flood almost every country on the globe with their currency. Anton Struchenevsky, an economist with Troika Dialog brokerage, told RBC Daily that, in the estimation of the US Federal Reserve System, about 80 percent of the total dollar supply was outside the United States. "The circulation of a national currency outside the country is good for its economy. It means that investments are being made in it. And the status of a reserve currency directly supports the dollar," Mr. Struchenevsky said.
It is difficult to say when Europe will be able to use this resource and support the economy through the investments in its currency from abroad. "The question is how many euro notes will be printed. One thing is clear: there are more dollar notes (than euro notes) on the market now," Mr. Struchenevsky says. But analysts say the euro stands a good chance of strengthening its position both in Russia and on the world market. Certainly, the current weakening of the dollar affects the situation on the exchange market, with many investors trying to switch from the dollar to the euro, thus increasing the share of the European currency in global economy. And the deeper the dollar falls, the higher the demand for the euro will be. But, according to experts, the euro's success will be due not just to America's weakness but also to the strengthening of the European economy. "We are now witnessing the emergence of Europe as a powerful rival to the United States. And the admission of another ten countries into the European Union will further increase the euro's weight in the world," Mr. Vorobyov said.
As for the euro's position on the Russian market, analysts say the European currency should play a stronger role there. Traditionally, Russian exporters mostly receive dollars and not euros even for the goods they supply to Europe. This, in its turn, leads to the weakening of Russia's balance of trade. "Europe accounts for about 50 percent of Russia's foreign trade. So, fundamentally, we should give preference to the euro rather than to the dollar," Mr. Vorobyov noted. In his opinion, Mr. Putin's statement should be interpreted as a sign for foreign trade companies, particularly exporters, about the necessity of switching to the European currency. However, Mr. Struchenevsky believes that this process will go in a natural way, and Russian authorities are unlikely to put pressure on domestic companies: they will be guided by simple commercial interests.
The percentage of the euro in the cash savings of Russian people remains rather low, as well as in the payments of exporters. "Despite the situation on the world market, Russians have not yet lost their confidence in the dollar," Mr. Struchenevsky says. But this trend is changing, even if gradually. Earlier, the dollar made up nearly 100 percent of foreign currency purchased on the Russian cash market, but the figure has dropped to 90 percent over the past few months, giving way to the euro, according to the economist. According to him, the success of the euro on Russia's cash market hinges on the well-being of Russian citizens. "As living standards of Russian people rise, they will need various investment instruments. In addition, the citizens will become better acquainted with economic reality, and they will realize that investments should be diversified," Mr. Struchenevsky stressed. In his opinion, if Russia's GDP doubles by 2010, the ratio of the dollar to the euro in the Russian economy will be 50/50. But this will hardly be a substantial support for the EU economy. According to the economist, the deposits of Russian people in foreign currency total about $13.5bn, while their cash savings are estimated at about $35bn. This is a lot for Russia, but not for the world economy.
Calidor (06/04/03; 07:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 104089)
Old Yeller - Lessons on how to make 43 trillion disappear.
http://www.aei.org/events/eventID.301/event_detail.asp
Old Yeller,
Thanks for yesterday's post (msg#: 104032) and link to the article. I was curious about the 43 or 44 trillion (ok, ok, a few trillion here, a few trillion there, pretty soon we're talking real money) and did a little "mining for more" information.
Snippit –
June 2, 2003, 1:23AM
Lessons in how to make $43 trillion disappear
By SCOTT BURNS
Universal Press Syndicate
The material to be deleted from the budget document was an updating of generational accounting. O'Neill had requested an estimate of the government's true long-term obligations.
The new accounting shows the United States is broke.
It shows the true obligations of government were 10 times larger than Treasury debt held by the public. It shows the present value of these unfunded obligations is a mind-numbing $43 trillion.
In a recent telephone conversation I asked one of the project economists, Jagadeesh Gokhale, why he thought his work was cut. Gokhale, a senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, was circumspect. He suggested the figures were a surprise to the new Treasury secretary.
The American Enterprise Institute will soon publish a pamphlet, co-authored by Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters.
The draft copy does more than lay out the size of the government's unfunded liabilities. It shows how much the current generation is benefiting at the expense of the next.
Calidore - The draft mentioned above is titled "Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures For New Budget Priorities". Just click on Gokhale's Paper or Gokhale's Presentation to see them in pdf.
Cavan Man (06/04/03; 07:28:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 104088)
NEM
Newmont Announces Acceptances of Six of Seven Hedge Counter Parties, Representing 94% of Yandal Hedge Book Ounces
Tuesday June 3, 8:03 pm ET
DENVER, June 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM - News) today announced that its subsidiary, Yandal Bond Company Limited (YBCL), has accepted assignments from six of a total of seven gold hedge counter parties for all their gold hedge contracts with Newmont's Australian subsidiary, Newmont Yandal Operations Limited (Yandal), formerly Great Central Mines Ltd., for a total cash payment of $77 million.
The total cash payment represents $0.50 for each $1.00 of net mark-to-market hedge liability, as calculated by YBCL as of May 22, 2003. These assignments represent 94% of the ounces in the Yandal hedge book and 76% of the negative mark-to-market liability of the Yandal hedge book. Yandal remains obligated to deliver to YBCL for the contracts assigned under the offer.
YBCL's offer to acquire all of the gold hedge contracts entered into between Yandal and its counter parties expired at 5:00 p.m. Mountain Daylight Time today. The remaining counter party alleges a right to terminate its gold hedge contract with Yandal before its respective maturity, based on the alleged occurrence of an early termination event under the contract.
Pursuant to the announcement of May 29, 2003, YBCL has also offered to purchase for cash all of the outstanding 8 7/8% Senior Notes due April 2008 of Yandal, YBCL has said in the Note offer that its failure to acquire all of the Notes not presently owned by it or all of the hedge contracts may result in an insolvency with respect to Yandal.
Newmont, based in Denver, is the world's premier gold mining company and the largest gold producer with significant assets on five continents.
Boilermaker (6/4/03; 06:38:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 104087)
Mirant on the ropes
Mirant bankruptcy threat shakes U.S. energy market
NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) -
Rumblings from electricity generator Mirant Corp. that it might seek bankruptcy protection have stirred nerves in an already troubled energy market, traders said on Tuesday.
"Mirant is a big company that could potentially disrupt the market. They are probably holding a lot of positions," one Midwest natural gas trader said.
Atlanta-based Mirant, one of the nation's top merchant energy traders, on Monday offered its creditors a plan to restructure $1.45 billion of debt as part of a wider refinancing effort aimed at avoiding bankruptcy.
At the same time it warned that if the plan were not quickly approved, it might seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection using the same plan as the foundation for restructuring.
The move is the latest in a series of setbacks for an industry hit hard by the downfall of energy trader Enron Corp. in 2001, federal investigations into market manipulation and subsequent severe credit downgrades.
"Mirant is one of the few big players left," one New England electricity trader said. "If Mirant exits the market, it's going to be a lot harder to enter long term deals."
A year ago, Mirant was the biggest natural gas trader and sixth biggest power trader in the United States, according to a study by energy analyst Scott, Madden & Associates.
BACK TO BASICS
Over the past year, electricity traders have nearly abandoned speculative trading to return to the sale of megawatts generated at their power plants.
Speculative trading, which made Enron the biggest energy trader in the nation before it failed, involves making a bet on whether power prices will rise or fall in the future based on such factors as the weather or fuel supplies.
It is potentially more lucrative than trading around physical assets, like power plants, but much riskier.
Mirant was created by Southern Co. to buy and build power plants across the nation that would sell power into the newly deregulated regional electricity markets.
As with other energy merchants hurt by falling power prices, like Xcel Energy Inc. unit NRG Energy and PG&E Corp. unit PG&E National Energy Group (NEG), Mirant's credit rating has been cut to junk and its stock price has fallen sharply.
comment;
Here's another huge paper energy trader going down even though there's no sign (yet) of fraud. Someday soon the paper gold traders will meet the same fate. Back to basics be it physical energy or physical gold
Cavan Man (6/4/03; 05:51:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 104086)
mikal104703
Thanks for that one buddy. I think Pacino should play rumsfeld because both are so, "over the top". You know, rumsfeld might just be the AU market's secret weapon.
Socrates964 (6/4/03; 05:30:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 104085)
Silvercollector
Silvercollector, c'mon dude. Think about it.
I'm not abusing you. I actually thought your post on everyone losing their jobs was very interesting.
The point I'm making has nothing to do with some mystic association between gold and the Euro, but that Roach seems to be on 'message discipline' like all the other Wall Street shills. Call his work what you like, but hard analysis it ain't.
He's thus doing nothing more than resurrecting the old Cold War argument of 'it's bad here, but much much worse over there', and backing it up with ridiculous arguments of the kind you find on the Heritage Foundation site.
As such, when he tries to claim that the strong dollar is the same thing as robust economic growth, I slap my forehead with my palm and shout 'Duhhh!' because by the same argument, France, Germany and Iraq have just become economic miracles with surging GDP in dollar terms.
Unfortunately, it seems to me that if one makes this kind of point, a lot of people here assume that one is being a Franco/Germanophile partisan, when my point is that this is an idiotic tendentious argument, and the fact that a previously sound economist like Roach is making it tells you how far gone things are. Surely you see this???
This will be my last post for a while.
Black Blade (6/4/03; 04:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 104084)
"Currency War" - Competitive Currency Devaluations Ahead
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/9795/content.asp?banner=comstockfund&menu=macro&dia=462003
Snippit:
The move toward competitive currency devaluations that we have been expecting is quickly gathering steam as global economies continue to stagnate. The weakness in the dollar and strength in the Euro is putting increasing downward pressures on the already weak European economies, and elected officials are pushing for an EU rate cut at this Thursday's meeting of EU monetary leaders. Germany is already flirting with recession as GDP was negative in the first quarter while unemployment in the Euro zone is at a three-year high of 8.8 percent. With inflation under control even the EU central bankers will probably give in and lower rates by at least 25 basis points, or perhaps even 50. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 points, it will probably be only the first of a series of interest rate decreases through the remainder of the year.
Chairman Greenspan, too, clearly signaled today that another fed funds rate reduction was likely at the upcoming FOMC meeting on June 24th and 25th. With the economy failing to respond to the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus already in the pipeline, the Fed is desperately trying to pump up both the bond and stock markets at the same time. To do this they are saying that the economy will recover, hoping that this will stimulate the stock market. On the other hand they are saying that inflation is no threat, so the cost of taking out a little insurance (a rate cut) against the possibility of deflation is minimal. In addition they are also continuing to talk about the possibility of taking non-traditional measures such as long-bond purchases, thereby helping out the bond market.
Black Blade: Ah yes, the "Currency War". Add to this the Ministry of Finance through the Bank of Japan is selling off the Yen like there's no tomorrow. Everyone wants the weaker currency. Anyway the ECB will cut 50 bps and the Fed will follow up at least a 25 bps and maybe even 50 bps cut. The Japanese will say "what a bargain" and buy the lower yielding bonds while throwing around worthless Yen to weakening it further. Quite amusing really.
WAC (Wide Awake Club) (6/4/03; 03:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 104083)
The US Economy and the mighty $ needs all the help it can get
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2961288.stm
A US brothel is offering free sex to US troops who took part in the war against Iraq to thank them for their endeavours abroad.
The Moonlight Bunnyranch in Carson City, Nevada, where brothels are legal, has produced a more erotic version of the standard TA-50 army kits issued to troops headed into battle.
WAC: Aid package for the Airlines, Stock Market, Auto industry etc. Why not extend this generous facility to other industries too. It all helps to increase and maintain liquidity. What as/is happened/happening to this once Great Land?
Belgian (6/4/03; 03:04:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 104082)
HSBC - Forex analysts
The world's central banks are in the process of exchanging their dollar-reserves for euro-reserves. A lot of inconsistant warnings are criscras shouted from the dollar-pit !
Topaz (6/4/03; 01:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 104081)
@Gonlyold.
Sorry to butt in Sir...It may assist your understanding if you refer to ECB Gold as "reserves" and not "backing". The term "backing" is more relevant to the Gold standard of yore. Where the ECB differ is the Mark to Market evaluation of their Gold reserves. The "backing" today is more closely represented by the Human resources of a Nation/Bloc. In the case of America every man, woman and child is saddled with approx $30,000 Debt...Gold (at birth) and throughout it's lifetime (infinite) is debt free and from time to time extends it's credit-worthiness into the stratisphere. It's considered by some we are now at the beginning of one of these "Times".
Belgian (6/4/03; 01:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 104080)
Mineweb reporting on LBMA conference - Lisboa
The report in 3 words : DOOM DOOM DOOM ! Thanks Mineweb...
LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) where the equivalent of 500 tonnes Gold per day (ATHs were 1,000 tonnes/d) are *visibly* traded and an estimate of 1,500 tonnes Gold per day, *unvisible*.
In other words, this oldiest London based goldmarket, trades the yearly total new Goldproduction in *one* day. The paper goldcontract equivalent of 2,500 tonnes (visible + unvisible), that is.
Nobody is going to object, when we state that, the LBMA-insiders know * EXACTLY * what is happening in the Global Gold-World ! Repeat...the LBMA_Insiders (Rothshild-level).
A jolly group of LBMA-messengers got a nice conference-stay offered in sunny Portugal, where the living is nice and easy. These messengers had only ONE message for Gold's future : DOOM and GLOOM ! Our dearest and much appreciated clown Andy Smith (Mitsui), "boomeranged" POG for 2004 at 250$ !!! Yep, minus 100$ for your-mine-our, precious ounce-coins !
Please, take note that Gold is a "Boomerang" investment...you buy it and then you sell it again...according to the honorable Smith.
That same Mineweb (vehicle) states (re-confirms) in another article that present gold-consumption is 4,000 tonnes a year. And total production was...And the balance was "boomeranged" Gold !
Can anyone here guess the "REAL" message ??? TIA !
Dollar Bill, you surely can...(snap, joehoe *>*)
Topaz (6/4/03; 01:09:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 104079)
Debt and Credit. @ BB
http://www.smartmoney.com/bondmarketup/
ALL maturities are under the pump BB. Mr Greenspans role now is to attempt to instil in the market psyche low IR's are here to stay. The quirkiest thing now will be an ECB rate-cut... if it forces DX well above 94 it could start an avalanche of Futures to Cash ....GAME OVER!
Gonlyold (6/4/03; 00:57:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 104078)
Correction to my post
please change my sentence from "perhaps only 90? 95%? 99%?" to "perhaps a fiat equivalent of 90%? or 95% or 99%."
Gonlyold (6/4/03; 00:50:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 104077)
GAB & Belgian
GAB, I guess that I should not have ben surprised by your information that the Euro is not backed by 15% gold. Since the banking system is ultimately ruled by the same world wide leaders, and since the "protection" offered by US banks is, I'm told, about 10% of deposits, then I should have expected that the euro backing would have been built along the same lines. What Why didn't I see that? I should have know better.
And from what I understand from you, that the gold "backing" of the euro is way less than 15%: perhaps only 90? 95%? 99%? This underscores the lack of reasoning to switch from a 100% fiat US$ to a possible 99% fiat Euro. So obviously it's not a fiat problem. I know many here have been attempting to explain exactly what that other cause is. I'm still trying to digest it. Thank you for your information.
The most frigntening think you said was, "The world's monetary mess stinks and it will likely kill our civilization." This statement arouses survival techniques more important that gold. (Dare I say that?)
In spite of my User name's dyslectic (sp?) play on the words "only gold", I'm tempered by reality in knowing that food, clothing, and shelter will override the need for gold. Gold will still be important for those who are secure in the those basics, but in spite of A's comment that you will not be able to pry gold out of someone's hand once the world goes into a depression, I feel that A still must realize that you can't eat gold. Feel free to correct me if I have misinterpreted A's comment.
Belgian, thank you for you response. When you say that, "(Gold is) Not a contained unprecious metal that is forced to walk in line with a currency/fiat." and "Gold is ment for storing your surplusses and function as a transferable wealth tangible.", I take that to mean that you feel that gold can never be a currency. Somewhere in A's or FOA's archives, he explains that gold can be viewed as: a currency, a commodity, and a something else(?).
I agree with you but probably not for the same reasons. My reasons are somewhat simplistic in that I don't see how gold can be demoninated into pennies. I will continue to read your and the other posts here to gain more knowledge on this issue.
You also said,
"The euro as an alternative fiat is will become as worthless as the dollar over time if the euro-system should copy the dollar-system with unfree, contained Gold !!! But this will NOT be the case ! The ECB has made its intentions, for Freeing Gold, very clear with openly exposing its goldreserves to the present dollar-paper-gold-market pricing. The ECB wants to set Gold Free from this dollar-system with the installment of an euro-PHYSICAL goldmarket !"
Let me see if I understand this. In my own words, I think you're saying that the Euro will not be able to survive as a currency if it is not tied to physical gold and that the ECB wants to establish the link between gold and the Euro. If my interpretation is correct, seems like the ECB has a long way to go before it meets it's objective. There is much here that I don't understand. Thank you for giving me some food for thought. I will think on these things. Take care.
Goldendome (6/4/03; 00:26:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 104076)
Cavan Man & Silvercollector--Your Man in the street posts.
I enjoyed your antidotal assessments yesterday of the U.S.economy. I think we need more of them, so here is:
Another "man in the street" report.
In the eighteen years that I have owned and operated a small neighborhood grocery store, I have never, ever, seen so much change and hardship as is occurring now, the past year, in the local wholesale/retail industry.
Where to start? Most dramatic I guess, my Dairy supplier went bankrupt three months ago. One large grocery store, one convenience store, and two hardware stores have locked their doors in 2003.
I had two bread delivery companies for eighteen years. Just recently one pulled out--Said they just had to cut expenses as everything from sesame seeds, cooking oil, flour, chocolate, to labor, medical, and finally "the Nail"--fuel costs, were simply overwhelming them.
My cigarette and candy distributor that had been making twice a week deliveries for the past eleven years cut all routes to once/week delivery mainly because of fuel, but also labor costs. Now I have to be even more of an "expert" when gauging demand, or find a second distributor to do fill-ins.
An elderly gentleman that had been bringing in a few items every month for the past fifteen years just stopped showing up. I don't know what happened there, but for the past five of six years he had been trying to retire. I got the impression at the end, that he was attempting to liquidate his business piecemeal to us retailers.
Another company that had carried health and beauty aids, plus other household type items, decided to pull out of this State altogether, after what they termed was "A disastrous first quarter." (I can sure vouch for that. I had to go back one hell-of-a-long-way to find any lower sales figures for the month of January.
The two major poop companies,{ 'er read "pop" companies} are still trying to get away with every other week (winter) delivery schedules, even though winter is long gone. Again, to save time, labor, transportation costs.
The major grocery wholesaler has upped minimum order sizes--twice--do to labor and transportation costs, again. Sometimes, if the order doesn't look close enough (dollar wise), I just hold off the order for a week, rather than order crud that I really don't need at that time, but then, I almost always suffer, outs.
--------------------------------------------------------
How is my business doing, you ask? Not so shiny--as you might expect.
I saw "the hammer" hovering in early 2001, after a poor net followed a decent revenue year in 2000. You probably guessed the problem......Again, too much labor cost. So, I like nearly 100% of American businesses today are trying to grow the bottom line, while the top line shrinks (way too much capacity built up in this industry also, in the "90's), by cutting the expenses in the middle--mainly labor, but also, other indulgences that have become so passe with the lingering recession...Like newer cars, and trips, and extra time off, and other expenses that got buried in the income statement.
Now it's five, or six, or maybe even seven days a week, and time-off spent tarring the roof! Business is not so much fun and glamour now as it is an aspect of pride in survival as others fall away---wondering if your turn is coming. My "Ace" is that I have been doing it so long now, that everything is either paid for, or being paid down to near debt extinguishment by my other tenants in the small strip mall. But like Cavan's box company, I have no pricing power, at all. Just offer to the public at a fair price, be competitive, and count on location. ---------Gdome
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
