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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/4/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Waverider (04/04/02; 23:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 72778)
Silvester
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/datapage.htm
"Do we know how much of the Arab 2.4 trillion is in the Dow or the Nasdaq? How many total foreign and domestic dollars are in the Dow and the Nasdaq?"

I don't know, nor do I know where one could find that information...maybe someone else here does? I think the Arabs are even guessing the 2.4 trillion figure in expatriated funds. I've seen a number of estimates suggested in the various Arab economic websites I've bookmarked.

You may find the above link of interest - good raw economic data. Check out the "Federal Debt Held by Foreign Investors" and the "US Balance on Current Accounts" - interesting given the article that Sector posted earlier today. Hope that helps at least a little. Cheers,

Waverider

Black Blade (04/04/02; 23:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 72777)
Rockgrabber

Why thank you. I used to live for a time in Hayward, Castro Valley, and (Gulp) Escondido many years ago. In many ways it was very nice, and in other ways I felt as though the inmates were running the asylum. Still, I have relatives and several friends living there. Two cousins in LA who are lawyers (one is even a "Jewish lawyer" in the Entertainment biz - as he constantly reminds me), and another is a Moravian minister in Oakland. Even so, I do have fond memories of how life used to be in "Kalifornia". Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade (04/04/02; 23:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 72776)
Mr. Gresham � Germ Warfare and the American Indian

It would appear that the Brits also may have engaged in the American Indian Genocide. Lord Jeffrey Amherst commanding general of British forces in North America during the final battles of the so-called French & Indian war (1754-1763) apparently wrote of using small pox to "inoculate the vermine". These stories are reported, for example, in Carl Waldman's Atlas of the North American Indian [NY: Facts on File, 1985]. Waldman writes, in reference to a siege of Fort Pitt (Pittsburgh) by Chief Pontiac's forces during the summer of 1763:

... Captain Simeon Ecuyer had bought time by sending smallpox-infected blankets and handkerchiefs to the Indians surrounding the fort -- an early example of biological warfare -- which started an epidemic among them. Amherst himself had encouraged this tactic in a letter to Ecuyer. [p. 108]

Other sources:

See Ann F. Ramenofsky, Vectors of Death: The Archaeology of European Contact (Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1987):

Among Class I agents, Variola major holds a unique position. Although the virus is most frequently transmitted through droplet infection, it can survive for a number of years outside human hosts in a dried state (Downie 1967; Upham 1986). As a consequence, Variola major can be transmitted through contaminated articles such as clothing or blankets (Dixon 1962). In the nineteenth century, the U.S. Army sent contaminated blankets to Native Americans, especially Plains groups, to control the Indian problem (Stearn and Stearn 1945). [p. 148]

The use of small pox as germ warfare was also used by the US Army against the Cheyenne and earlier against the Cherokee under orders from President Andrew Jackson.

See also Robert L. O'Connell, Of Arms and Men: A History of War, Weapons, and Aggression (NY and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989):

Marking a milestone of sorts, certain colonists during the French and Indian Wars resorted to trading smallpox-contaminated blankets to local tribes with immediate and devastating results. While infected carcasses had long been catapulted into besieged cities, this seems to be the first time a known weakness in the immunity structure of an adversary population was deliberately exploited with a weapons response. [p. 171]

Anyway, it's all water under the bridge. We certainly don't live in a perfect world. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Rockgrabber (04/04/02; 23:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 72775)
$$Mr. Black Blade$$
$$Man I wish I could buy you a Negro Mendelo my freind. It sure is easy when all I have to do is come here and get all the great relavent stories you have found and posted. I bet you are a great guy to twist one up with. The pleasures that others must have had in your company at those times I am sure is super. I by the way loved the ant and grasshopper analogy. I live here in California (sorry). Its amazing what little brats are driving around on these roads here. Big Suburbans, BMW's, decked out trucks with motorbikes in the back. Peircings and scribble marks all over their bodys. They pay attention to not a thing, and this lifestyle the feel they deserve? I am definitly not going to cry for these folks I am sorry to say. Thank you for your efferts good sir. Cheers. $$

Sorry for the jibber folks. Wanted to let Mr. Black Blade know he is much appreciated in my eyes.

Rockgrabber (04/04/02; 23:01:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 72774)
***Mr. R Powell***
*** Regarding those straddle ideas. I have not fared so well in the past trying to short the stock market. I think any trading in any market for me in the future will (unless I find out it does not work for yet another unforseen occurance) include the use of the straddle technique.*****

If for nothing else having played in these markets has taught just what a mess they have created in the paper gold market. Many people who yeild the mighty power of wealth are rats and not to be trusted. Their interest does not look for your best. All they have to do is sell all the paper it takes to hold prices to wherever they wish. I am sure it wont be to long untill for some strange reason the premiums on physical gold rise. As a "temporary" physical shortage hits the markets. It wont be temporary most likely however. The paper players may never see the gains, and if they do they will be in dollars. I have to say the best reading I have ever just happened to come across has been here on this page ("The Gold Trail"). Gold in Hand looks better and better all the time.

Mr Gresham (04/04/02; 22:46:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 72773)
BB: History lovers only
http://www.yiddishbookcenter.org/story.php?n=6
I forgot before, in the heat of the post, but one of history's delicious ironies (to me) is that the National Yiddish Book Center, founded by Aaron Lansky & friends driving around the East in a beat-up van rescuing books, and a dying culture, is now located in a beautiful new library in the town named after the English commander who sent the Indians the smallpox blankets in the hopes of exterminating them.

Pizz (04/04/02; 21:34:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 72772)
R Powell
Could this be possible:

Leased Gold = Mine Hedge Books??

Senario: Lease gold with a bank guarantee, sell gold, invest most of fiat, and buy forward contracts on margin with rest of fiat from hedge miners as insurance.

If you own the forward contract you do not have to sell, you can demand delivery.

Could our hedged miners be in a position where they can't cover directly and they are just going to have to deliver?

Who did the leasing? Enron partnership type entities set up for the sole purpose of controlling gold's price? Nice scam but the monkey wrench could have been 911 and mid east war. Even if gold spikes, it's the mines that get hurt, not the banks or leasers. Hmmmm...

Makes sense to me from a sort of conspiratorial mind set.

Pizz

sector (04/04/02; 21:17:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 72771)
Keeping Eyes on Japan and Mrs. Watanabe
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold sets standard in Japan
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: April 3 2002 21:56 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 22:03

Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal.

Japanese households bought Y24bn ($180m) of gold in February, according to JP Morgan, and gold imports increased more than seven times from February 2001 to almost 20,000kg.

"It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist At JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investment can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, Japan's leading retailer of gold bullion, reported a nine-fold year-on-year increase in retail sales in February, while Mitsubishi Materials, Japan's biggest non-ferrous metals maker, saw sales surge to 13 times last year's level.

Concerns about the health of Japanese banks, believed to hold large portfolios of non-performing loans, run deep, even though speculation about an impending financial crisis in March was proved wrong.

But talk of a "March crisis" saw many Japanese shift their money from bank deposit accounts into gold and other assets. Gold sales were also spurred by the government's decision to lift the guarantee on bank time- deposits of more than Y10m from April 1.

Although that deadline has now passed, the guarantee will be lifted from other types of bank accounts in April next year, leaving Japanese savers still fearful for their life savings.

The Financial Services Agency's report on its special inspection of the banks' non-performing loans, due out this month, is likely to deepen concern about the banks.

Meanwhile, Japanese corporations will begin to report their annual results, which are expected to reflect the bleak economic environment, from next month.

"Gold sales are still much higher than last year and that's because of the state of the economy and the banks. May and June could be another panic point that could trigger another big surge in sales," said Yoshihiro Matsumoto, head of the gold retail group at Mitsubishi Materials.

The price of gold futures has surged in Tokyo recently on fears that the Arab-Israeli conflict and tensions between the US and Iraq could spill into a bigger regional war, but retail investors continue to buy. "Usually the Japanese don't buy when the price goes up, but this time it's different," said Mr Matsumoto.

A broker at one of Japan's leading general trading companies said she expected gold retail sales to increase if the price fell even slightly. "The public are holding long positions in gold and enjoying the surge in prices.

"If prices fall, brokers and short-term traders will sell but the public will buy."

There is anecdotal evidence that Japanese investors are buying gold futures and other commodities, such as platinum. Platinum futures surged yesterday, sending the spot platinum price above $540 an ounce for the first time since July.

"It's calmed down since February's peak, when we had crazy sales. But even now people come in with tens of millions of yen and take several kilos of gold bars home with them," said Mr Matsumoto.

sector (04/04/02; 21:07:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 72770)
Options on Options to secure a futures position which hedged a short with a double straddled alligator bull spread.
Or how my brother got hosed trying to outsmart the big boys in gold
I must remember that some people actually can make money in the futures and options trade.

It's just that I swore an oath never to even try. Maybe I lost a fortune in doing so.

This gold trading thing is not as simple as the Elliot wavers would have you believe. My brother, a university associate professor, sent me all the pamphlets...he did all the due diligence. In the end he had kids and his priorities changed. He never did make too much money at it.

The point is that there are hundreds of very savvy Fed economists who have unlimited funds and time to set you up for failure in this manipulated COMEX market.

You win by being long gold with money you don't need.

Cutely trading in and out is needlessly risky in my view. The upside is 10X physical...just as it was in 1971. Maybe more now.

GATA and a small army of dedicated soldiers have exposed the truth that the Treasury is running a bit short of ammunition these days and that big, long players across the globe are now offsetting the cabal's past strength.

Swinging for the fences with paper options and COMEX futures just isn't necessary. The authorities can change the COMEX rules whenever they please. Ask the Pt players on the TOCOM. They may be getting close to yet another default in Platinum.

I have some physical. I don't calculate how much it's worth today vs. what I paid...I don't care now. It's in the future that I will care...when eyes will pop as I bring them out. I also have some unhedged miners...they manufacture and distribute actual "money". They are the JPMs of the future.

R Powell (04/04/02; 20:45:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 72769)
Mr. Gresham/ Michael
Carry trade included in derivative number?
I wonder if the large amount of gold, leased and sold over many years which is the true unwindable position is being included in the derivative exposure numbers?
If so, I'll echo your question. This gold carry trade gold has warped the supply/demand equation for these many years, I can't see how it could possibly be bought back without POG going into orbit.
Again, this leasing, carry-trade-created huge short position sets gold and silver apart as unique from all other commodities. This is said in reference to the manner in which they are traded. That gold and silver are money also clouds the issue, no?
Rich

Black Blade (04/04/02; 20:44:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 72768)
Energy futures prices undergo corrections
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=140200

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Apr. 4 -- Energy futures prices regressed Wednesday as international markets adjusted from earlier spikes this week. The May contract for benchmark US sweet, light crudes dropped 15� to $27.56/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June position lost 18� to $27.66/bbl. However, both rebounded in after-hours electronic trading to $27.65/bbl and $27.76/bbl, respectively.

Unleaded gasoline for May delivery fell 2.14� to 84.84�/gal, wiping out the previous day's gain of 2.08�. Natural gas for the same month was rolled back 14.8� to $3.51/Mcf, nullifying Tuesday's gain of 12.3�. The May heating oil contract dipped 0.12� to 70.83�/gal on the NYMEX.

The American Gas Association reported early Wednesday an unexpectedly heavy withdrawal of 65 bcf of natural gas from US underground storage last week, compared with drawdowns of 69 bcf the previous week and 51 bcf during the same period a year ago. That ended the traditional winter withdrawal season with a little more than 1.4 tcf of gas still in storage, up 804 bcf from last year. "We now expect storage levels entering next winter at the beginning of November to be at 3-3.1 tcf, based on an expected 2% year-over-year decline in domestic natural gas production," with a projected growth of 2.9% in the US gross domestic product, said Robert Morris of Salomon Smith Barney Inc. That economic growth should increase US demand for natural gas by an additional 1.75 bcfd, or 3%, this year, Morris reported Thursday.

Black Blade: Of course growth projections for natural gas are based on continuing production. The decline in natural gas will only accelerate as fewer drill rigs explore and produce natural gas. Decline rates have been accelerating as these producing fields age and reserves are not being replenished. Storage withdrawal rates are still higher than year ago levels. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate and threatens to spread to other regions. Thankfully the US is in an economic recession as we would be heading into another "energy crisis" that we are not prepared for (dodged another bullet?).

R Powell (04/04/02; 20:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 72767)
Rockgrabber / Mr. Gresham
Warning- post content concerns paper trading
Rockgrabber, I've often used your straddle opinion idea but think of buying both the call and put at the money, then sell whichever increases enough to cover the costs of two more (again one call and one put and again with the same market current at-the-money strike price). If the market is volatile enough the number of held options will increase with no more than the inital investment. A good size reversal profits on the larger number of options (puts or calls) accumulated. Buying more time (further out months until option expiration) as you accumulate increases the time frame.
This has not worked well in the gold market over the years because big moves in both directions are needed, along with discount commission rates, for this to work.
I've used it in copper, selling one leg of the straddle and then initiating another full straddle on every 2-3 cent move. With 3-4 cent moves another month's time can be included in the deal. Without price movement, the options loss value quickly with the passage of time.

Mr Gresham, if the large derivative positions in the gold market were from options sold then the sellers exposure to those would decrease with time. Options are time wasting assets for the buyer. So, by discontinuing the sales, the potential exposure (for the sellers) simply fades away with time. Also, I can not understand how anyone can even estimate the true potential exposure of Goldman or anyone since futures or options sold can be covered or the potential losses limited with other strategies. It gets incredibly complicated. Risky? Yes! Complicated Yes! Dangerous? Absolutely! How complicated? Risk in short deverative positions in gold or silver might be somewhat or even completely offset by long positions in the XAU index!
I am very suspect of any figures concerning anyone's position, even outright OTC sales as there are so many ways to offset risk. This does not eliminate risk, it offsets or transfers it. I consider my knowledge as barely adequate to play the game so please question my supposins but I'm supposin that the ever fluxuating derivative exposure may have been reduced with the time wasting nature of sold options and reduced through offsetting strategies. Perhaps there is a formula for how many Drooy shares must be bought to counter the potential loss for every sold call or future, with more Drooys bought for every dollar increase in POG after the options' strike price has been exceeded. Perhaps the potential losses have been limited with bought calls with higher strike prices? Perhaps the potential gain from every ten Drooy shares covers the spread between the short options potential loss up to the point (POG) where the loss is covered with options held at a higher srike price. My point is to express the complexity of the situation. Perhaps absurd but part of the puzzle nonetheless.
If they have greatly lowered the exposure, it has not been done without cost other than those that have lost value due to the passage of time. Sorry for talking shop here but it's an essential part of the question. It's the money management part of the game.
Rich

Trapper (04/04/02; 20:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 72766)
Siochain
Read your post about Schwab and the shorts. I too have lots of gold stocks at their place so I call. Well I never heard a man studder so much. Can you belive that he said it must have been Mr. Schwab who was shorting.Well I got no place with him but it is after hours.
Question do you have any more info cause I will find a gold friendly place spend my money?
Live small.
RJ

Chris Powell (04/04/02; 19:44:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 72765)
GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1073
GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout on
the gold price suppression scheme.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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nickel62 (04/04/02; 19:44:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 72764)
Black Blade.
Thanks for the insight into the Charlie Whitman situation. I was quite young at the time and never understood exactly what happened. I lost my first wife to a brain tumor so can understand what might have transformed him. Thanks again.

Chris Powell (04/04/02; 19:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 72763)
Howe lawsuit against BIS, U.S. government revived
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1072
Reg Howe files motion for more proceedings in
his lawsuit against the BIS and U.S. government.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Chris Powell (04/04/02; 19:42:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72762)
Howe lawsuit against BIS, U.
Howe files motion for more proceedings in
suit against BIS and U.S. government:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1072

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Mr Gresham (04/04/02; 19:28:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 72761)
BB, Cavan Man
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/087558070X/qid=1017973329/sr=8-1/ref=sr_8_3_1/104-6439043-4675136
No, it wasn't a specific group of victims I was after. It is honoring ALL of them, by honoring the slogan "Never again", to which I fully subscribe. To anyone -- anywhere. The details may be sticky (especially in this instance) but the principle still holds. And re-asserts itself in just about every news headline each day.

Gandhi and King were on to something, and anyone who does not take their movements into consideration is shearing off the possibilities of better outcomes for the people they seek to help or liberate. Palestinians of all people should have been commended to this path, but I understand the difficulties they would have had in wholeheartedly adopting it. And, yet, what has been their outcome in the alternative?

BB: There was a guy named Chivington, up Denver way, whose men rode through the streets of Denver with the anatomical evidences -- too gross too detail here -- of their slaughter at Sand Creek skewered on the ends of their swords ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee" -- Dee Brown). That is one that was demonically inspired, I am sure, and makes me embarrassed to admit Anglo-Saxon heritage in common with these savages.

I think the smallpox blankets were the British during the 1763 war, but it was probably tried elsewhere by U.S. later (Sherman?). There's enough shame to go around...

Hey -- I believe in Black reparations, too. (So -- shoot me, fellas) -- I believe every descendant of a Black slave would be entitled to about $20,000 (back of the envelope) in a fair court settlement for denied wages. Clear conscience knows no price tag, true, but at least it's not an infinite one. It's just a message -- Don't do it again!

silvester (04/04/02; 19:12:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 72760)
Waverider
Hey Waverider,

Do we know how much of the Arab 2.4 trillion is in the Dow or the Nasdaq? How many total foreign and domestic dollars are in the Dow and the Nasdaq?

Grubstaker (04/04/02; 18:56:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 72759)
GOLD $$ REALITY..
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/04/rtr559047.html
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada.

"A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.

The findings are likely to encourage gold market bulls who see the prospect of reduced mine supply driving prices above $300 a troy ounce, where bullion has been capped for most of the past two years.
end of article.......
***********************************************************
During the early-mid 1990's the "accepted" and often quoted mining "break even" $$ price of GOLD was accepted as $325. Any price below this point was considered a bargain for us physical buyers. As the "new economy" madness ensued this price "evolved" into $275...well folks it's time for the wake up call here....the GOLD bear days are gone and any opportunity to accumulate at below $300 are numbered (if not already past)...
I will state for the record;
Soon we will most certainly see the return to the $325 "break even" price..any accumulation of PHYSICAL GOLD BELOW THIS PRICE WILL BE PERCIEVED AS A BARGAIN...funny how reality seems to change...kind of like "pro forma " earnings..al� "spin"..

Cavan Man (04/04/02; 18:55:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72758)
Further if I may....
Mr. Gresham
One could also ask; "Who now remembers the Orthodox"? Orthodox Christians have been murdered by the tens of millions in the 20th century. Most of the Armenians you refer to are counted among those numbers. The horrors of Nazi Germany were far eclipsed in these many slaughters. She is called "the Church of martyrs" for good reason.

Black Blade: Thanks and cheers!

Rockgrabber (04/04/02; 18:50:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 72757)
Perhaps a decent stategy for those in the paper markets.
This is for those of you who may be looking for a way to profit in the paper markets. (probably best off just skipping this one over) First you have to make it so you dont have the tendency to lose money over and over. Next you must take money out of your winning posotions, with still keeping them. Those are the two principles for this idea. OK example. You have to enter you positions with a straddle (A put and call) Gold is at 300, buy a 305 call. Then buy a 295 put. Lets say you are bullish, even with the market rigged, for the purpose of how to take profits and keep from losing money, I need to clarify this is for the bullish position. For the profit strategy is different if you are bearish. Now if the position drops to say 295. You keep your 305 call sell your 295 put (may need to drop a bit below 295 I realize) for double what you paid for it. OK so you sell the 295 put you own and buy a 290 put and a 300 call. Now you own a 305 and 300 call and a 290 put. With no loss even though the market went against you, your put profit is in another put and a call. Now say it falls to 290 (or a bit below). Sell your 290 put once again. Keep your 305 and 300 calls and add another 295 call and a 285 put. You now own a 305,300,&295 calls and one 285 put. Now see you are ready for a spike. Just do it that way incase you are wrong about being bullish in paper.-------
Now what do you do if the market goes up when you enter you initial posotion. Think about it and you can come up with a strategy. If you make a killing with this technique you can buy me gold here at CPM and let me know. Personally I cannot trade. I am 28 and have a mess of a tax problem, and no credit. I have studied for 8 years (While commercial fishing) and 3 times lost my trading account. So carefull taking this advise!! ahahah. Not kiddin though, I bet that works very well. I should have listened better to Sir Trail Guide back in those ol days. With this technique I believe I would have been fine however. If you see any holes in this let me know if you would. Thanks

USAGOLD (04/04/02; 18:47:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 72756)
Mr. Gresham. . . .
Excellent question. . . .Options do not have to be covered. They can expire worthless. As such, for the so-called "cabal", they are a cost of doing business -- always have been . Q. What the business? A. The gold carry trade.

Black Blade (04/04/02; 18:33:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 72755)
Mr Gresham and Cavan Man

Then again if you want to discuss holocaust the we can't leave out the American Indian. There was a US governmnet policy of genocide. The US government even went as far as using biological weapons (small pox infected blankets). We in the US are certainly not blameless when it comes to genocide.

- Black Blade

Cavan Man (04/04/02; 18:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72754)
Mr. Gresham
Let us not forget the Ukranians during the Stalin era and the Irish in the mid-19th century. Many Greeks were slaughtered by the Turks as well.

Mr Gresham (04/04/02; 18:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 72753)
Disappearing Derivatives: BB, MK, Randy, anyone?
I've gotta be quick with this or I may not get it out today at all, but HOW could they disappear without driving the price back up?

Only thing I can think of is options, which, if you can get enough time to go by, can expire out of the money. Those meanwhile might have shown up at great nominal value, but not much actual profit with small premiums.

Shorts, and (I think) swaps, require actual buying (or paybacks) to cover, right? Equal effect on the other end. So where do the derivs go?

You can't postulate a mountain of derivatives driving AU down from 500 to 270, and covering most of it sends it only back up to 300???????

If some dumb turkey Enron-style was found to take the other side from these banks, then they had to fork over some real cash to do it, or these banks wouldn't be off the hook, would they?

Help me with the disproportionalities here, willya?

slingshot (04/04/02; 18:20:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 72752)
RobotGuy
Cause before Explaination
If cause before explaination is simular to cause and effect,why not. Gold should close at $298-$299.
I'm getting use to the ups and downs. There may have been some sabre rattling but nothing unusual. The ME tension has a messenger on the way and Hope has filled a void for the time being.The news of Argentina and Japan has run its course and even A. Anderson is beginning to go to the back burner. The media has turned its eye to the Catholic church and its doing and the masses are lulled into a sense of security. The demand for gold has eased as some now want to wait and see what happens next so I would expect a slight down turn but not to break the support level.
Slingshot

Carl H (04/04/02; 18:17:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 72751)
Re: FIGHTING BACK
Not patronizing the brokers would probably not hurt them that much (it would, however, make you feel better). Consider this instead -- in most brokerage accounts your shares can be used by others for shorting. If memory serves me, the shorting party need not even be at the same brokerage house. (I do not know if shares held in a retirement account can be used for shorting -- that is a point that I have been meaning to research.) What I might suggest is that owners of shares in mining companies place those shares in a situation where they cannot be used for shorting. One way of doing this is to take posession of the stock certificates (This is what I have done for our non-retirement account). It is a pain, but you then know that your shares are not being used against you. In my case, it has also helped temper the desire to sell on every little bump.

Black Blade (04/04/02; 18:16:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 72750)
@Boxman - Lemetropolecafe Post

I thank you anyway, however, I think your accolades should be directed toward our host MK. As it was his post about the "disappearing" Gold derivatives. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, how's the economic "container indicator" these days?

Siochain (04/04/02; 18:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 72749)
Gold as a Safe Haven
From CNN Money Watch:

Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre as a Safe Hedge
in Troubled Times
Source: Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Publication date: 2002-04-03

Apr. 3--After years of playing the part of Cinderella to
other more-favoured financial assets, gold is finally
shaking off its dowdy image and taking a shot at gaining
the prize for best-performing asset market of 2002.

Since 1997, $300 (UKpound 208) an ounce has been a ceiling
for gold as a combination of central bank auctions and
lending to hedge funds, forward sales by gold producers
and the much-touted death of inflation conspired to keep
the price well below its historic high of $870 hit in
1980.

To those gold bugs who have never given up hope that
this once lauded store of value would again take its
rightful place in the pantheon of credible financial instruments, the poor performance of the commodity
has been nothing short of a conspiracy.

Indeed, according to many gold aficionados, particularly
those at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, the US
Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and European central
banks, in league with major US investment banks, have
conspired to keep the price of gold low.

Gold broke through the $300 level to reach a two-year
high of $307.80 on 8 February. But the move did not last
long, and as the price drifted off German Bundesbank
President Ernst Welteke conveniently speculated that
Germany might at some stage start selling gold. The
timing of his statement was seen by many as an attempt
by the central banks to ensure the price of the commodity remained capped below $300. However, the price has
since rebounded, trading back above the key $300 level
last week.

The latest rebound has been driven by new-found interest
from the hedge funds, many of whom are betting that
persistent selling by large investment banks to keep
the price down, and central bank comments to achieve
the same end, will ultimately fail to cap the upward
trend.

Indeed, the talk now is that this so-called cartel is
about to get its come-uppance, with some gold optimists suggesting gold may hit $600 or even $1000 an ounce.

The Enron scandal has brought to the fore the issue of
cartels and especially the role of so-called bullion
banks that reportedly have very large short positions
in gold via the derivatives market. These are now being
squeezed as the price of the commodity rises. Indeed,
there is wildfire speculation among some US gold
watchers that if the price of gold moves even $20-$30
higher we are going to see these shorts getting hammered.

There are plenty of other reasons why gold and gold-related stocks are worth serious consideration. As well as Enron,
the markets also have to contend with Argentina's debt
default and the huge bankruptcy cases of US companies.

Another factor favouring gold is the quadrupling of
purchases of bullion by Japanese consumers worried about
the safety of their bank deposits. Also, investors in
the Middle East have started to actively purchase the
metal as tensions over Iraq, Israel and Palestine mount.

Finally the all-powerful US dollar, which has held up
remarkably well in the face of a weaker US economy,
evaporating corporate profits and heightened worries
over the threat from terrorism, may be set for a downturn,
which usually means higher gold prices.

Against this backdrop there is a genuine case for thinking
that gold provides an attractive hedge against financial
and political stress.

However, gold has to become more than just an icon of
gold bugs, conspiracy theorists and short-term speculators. Instead it needs to broaden its appeal as an asset among mainstream investors anxious to protect themselves in an increasingly uncertain financial and political environment

Pizz (04/04/02; 18:00:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 72748)
@Robot Guy
Not to throw water on your idea, but no one can predict accurately over the short term. So why try?

Day to day or even week to week price predictions are an exercise in futility. Way too many variables. You can both be right, for all the wrong reasons, or wrong, for all the right reasons or anywhere in between. Every once in a while a psychic, astrologer, or market advisor gets lucky like a crap player who makes 15 or 20 passes once or twice in a life time. If they're smart they'll write a book or start a subscription service and cash in quick. Ever wonder why if these people are so good, why do they have to take the time to write a book or advise others? Out of the goodness of their heart.?

It's hard enough trying to figure out which way the macro tides are running. Stock's APPEAR to be overvalued based upon everthing I have absorbed from many areas and gold and silver APPEAR to be undervalued. We are also printing more fiat than we are mining metals. EVERYTHING can change tomorrow morning, and probably will, somewhere.

Any day to day speculation also encourages people to trade, and that's gambling in my book. It will do more harm than good to those who try, IMHO. Many very intellegent people have tried and failed to beat the markets consistantly and failed. Intelligence is to wisdom as fiat is to wealth. I'd rather be a wise gold holder than a smart speculator.

Pizz

Mr Gresham (04/04/02; 17:54:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 72747)
"Who now remembers the Armenians?"
http://groong.usc.edu/fisk.html
" 'WHO NOW remembers the Armenians?' Hitler asked, just before he embarked on the destruction of European Jewry. Precious few, it seems. As the memorial day for the Nazi genocide against the Jews was proclaimed by Mr Blair this
week, there was not a single reference to the slaughter of one and a half million Armenian Christians by the Ottoman Turks in 1915. The world's first holocaust - and Hitler's inspiration for the slaughter of the Jews - was ignored."

Canuck (04/04/02; 17:46:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 72746)
@ Hipplebeck
Saw your posts today.

My manager is Palestian, his family fled Israel in 1972. Almost each day I stop by his office for more info., more stories. He is obviously anti-Israeli and tries to re-count episodes in a neutral light but I feel his pain. He normally ends our conversations by expressing the horrors in that area as 'a way of being'. It has been a powder keg for a long, long time. The other day I asked him what was the root of all evil, his story mirrors your post earlier.

I have emailed your post to him, I hope that is okay.

Your other post regarding inflation is interesting. As interest rates have fallen in the last year and a half, closing down on gold borrowing costs I noticed gold began to rise. Inflation has been neglible (apparently?) so I wonder if inflation is the driving force. I tend to believe it is the spread between inflation and what one can earn in US treauries. Gibson's paradox, low and behold. I watch the Canadian Bond Index for the 'real return rate', presently at 3.70%. I wonder what 'inflation index' it uses? [ ;) ]

So if one is buried in government securities that are fighting to stay above water, ala closing spreads, and rising risks, would one, should one spread risk in gold?

We hear the ancient arguments of inflation/deflation being good/bad for gold which I now tend to believe is hogwash. Either can be good/bad depending what pays better, yes? Bonds at 15% while inflation is 15% (1980ish) is the same as bonds at 2.5% while inflation is 2.5% (2000ish). Now let's throw in a war, overvalued dollar, an increasing gold supply/demand deficit and ask yourself what 'spread' is tolerable?

So 'real inflation' is 5%, not the reported CPI 2% and bonds are hurting because the phoney SM is rising and what do you have, a negative spread, RED ALERT!! So now we have a theoretical rising SM, pushing bond yields up while the economy is not ready for rising interest rates, oh no! The SM cannot stand rising rates presently while inflation pressures stand ready to smash the entire recovery merciless, RED ALERT! RED ALERT!

Throw Bush in the mix not knowing whether to urinate or pull up his zipper, Morgan Stanley's CA crunch (thanks sector) and we have trouble. One really has to ask oneself, what is the stock market doing? Can you say the government(s) are now running the funny farm!!

I am almost finished reading the crooked nonsense during the 1980 silver bull at the CBOT and Comex, what a joke. The silver longs were jammed, cornered and near beaten. The commodities market is a scam. The stock market is a farce. Let's see, the DJIA has been flat at 10,000 for how many years now while every other 'indicator' has been beaten into an inert mass. Well let's 'manage' 30 stocks okay! Give me a break.

Let's see these buffons 'manage' the bond and currency markets. Gold is a tiny, tiny market, of course it's managed, it's linked to inflation and the dollar and a host of other tangibles. Let's manage this tiny entity so that the monster that we can't control looks like it's under control, good idea, eh?

Why does government mess with stuff they don't fathom? They meddle and tinker and soon they are over their heads. Now we have this monstrosity of a mess that is unmanageable.

AU_Poor (04/04/02; 17:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 72745)
@Sector - your post today from Stephen Roach
Thanks for the Roach article.

If he's right about a double-digit devaluation of the dollar, this should be a significant factor in raising the price of PMs especially gold.

Do your sources give a time-frame? I got into PMs several years ago thinking this was imminent but the amazing, levitating dollar has persisted in spite of all the fundamentals.

RobotGuy (04/04/02; 17:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 72744)
SlingShot
Oooh, I hope I'm not the one screaming 'are we there yet' in the back seat, my dad used to whack me for that one. "Shut up, you're driving me nuts, you'll know when we get there"

Anywho, I didn't mean to come across as wondering if anyone could predict any immediate radical changes, but just more or less a daily commentary of reasonable speculative analysis.
Like the example I provided of my opinion of what might transpire tomorrow and with reason if the curiosity is there. We could simply state that I don't think anything major is going to happen, but that leaves an idividual's statement open to definition of what major might be.

All I mean to say is that I often see cause before explaination, but I would enjoy also hearing explanation before cause. I think we have enough brain power in this forum to make educated speculations, but that is often something people wish to keep private for fear of being wrong, and having someone point it out.

My dear friend would you care to speculate what might happen with the price of gold by tomorrow's close? I gave my unsupported whim! I have reason, but very basic.

Cheers!

RobotGuy.

Belgian (04/04/02; 17:12:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 72743)
@ Sir Strauss Randy
Thanks for the ECB/euro/Gold drift posting ! Driving on Another's trail to the game park...but w're not there yet ! (smile slingshot). Regards, Belgian.

Sierra Madre (04/04/02; 16:57:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 72742)
On Sovereign Powers in this world

I call that country a Sovereign Power, which is run by its ruler or rulers as he or they see fit, whatever other countries may think of it.

I see only these Sovereign Powers in the world at the present time: China, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, Syria, and of course, Israel.

I do not include the U.S. as a Sovereign Power. Nor any European power.

China is treated with kid gloves, for very good reasons: 1.3 billion Chinese plus nuclear weapons.

North Korea is treated gingerly, it also has nuclear weapons and a strong-willed government. It is classified as part of an "axis of evil", which includes Iran and Iraq, which have resisted being pushed around.

Libya does its own thing, but is quiet about it. Syria is also its own master. (seems to me)

Cuba belongs to Fidel, and no nonsense there.

And nobody, but nobody, tells Israel what to do or not do.

A showdown between these powers, would leave only Israel/U.S. and China. The others can be overcome by the U.S., with heavy losses, perhaps, but they can be levelled.

So that would leave Israel/U.S., against China.

That's the way I see it. Tell me I am all wrong, please! (I may be simplifying too much)

"Them as can, DO; them as can't, send envoys."

Facing the facts is disagreeable. I hope I am not sent to Siberia again, for this.

Sierra

Siochain (04/04/02; 16:15:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 72741)
FIGHTING BACK!!!!
A thought for your consideration.....

How about a new campaign....one against the Bullion Banks and Market Manipulators

IF every time we hear of a particular group such as Chase today, we write to them as well as newssources etc

Further...if you have an account with them...demand answers and if need be close the account and let them know why very specifically

Yesterday in the post I made from the cafe, it was mentioned that Schwab was shorting gold stocks heavily yesterday...well Schwab is one of my brokers..as well as for my Mother's estate as well as two brothers

I got on the phone and demanded to know what the story was...I got moved up several times...I let them know that if I found out that THEY were doing the shorting ..first my account and then the others would be moved

They claimed if any shorting it was done on behalf of clients...I followed up with an e-mail to Jim Puplava...who was kind enough to answer confirming that his sources said it was Schwab shorting but they did not know if for their own account or clients.

I got follow-up calls from Schwab today to make sure I was a happy camper...they know I am disturbed but since no proof it was done for their own account...they said no,,,then for now the accounts stay

I think this approach could work if we all did it ...making sure that first your broker cannot use your shares to short...and then if you hear that your broker is negatively impacting...then raise a ruckus

Deal with ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY (GOLD!!!) banks...brokers...and raise cane with the others...very loud...wide ...and clear!!!!

Anybody who deals with Chase should call...e-mail etc your displeasure and let them know that you may be changing ...others can also write!!!!

Let's get going...we may be small...but lose enough accounts and it hurts some...and deprives them of funds to further their dirty work...DEAL WITH GOLD FRIENDLY BUSINESSES!!!

Siochain (04/04/02; 16:13:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 72740)
Today was Chase's Turn
From the cafe:
It's The Same Old Song?

It's The Same Old Song, brought to you by The Four Tops and The Gold Cartel. But is it? Maybe yes, maybe no. Chase was the massive seller today on Comex, pounding away at all those who dare be long gold in defiance of His Majesty's cabal and rigged market. The arrogant Gold Cartel has been seriously challenged and they don't like it, so they are doing what they always do � sell, sell, sell, to take gold back below $300 in order to quiet down the newly created excitement over the precious metals. They do so by mobilizing their resources, which means draining more of the west's central bank gold reserves.

It is the same modus operandi used over an over again the past many years. The only question is whether they will get away with it this time. Is the physical gold market so strong that their mobilized resources are inadequate to get the job done? Has The Gold Cartel been found out to such an extent that the big investment players of the world are going to take them on? My guess is that the answer to both those questions is YES!

We shall see and it may take weeks, but the feel of this gold market is much different than the ones of days gone by. Today's Comex gold close was certainly different than in past years as it finished $2 off the lows. In the past gold would have closed near the lows and below $300 after the kind of effort Chase put in today.

The day-to-day is practically impossible to predict, especially when one of our adversaries is the U.S. Government, but gold and silver could take off again at any time. That is why trading in and out is very dangerous. A move of a lifetime is upon us. It is not a time to be out of position.

Silver closed a $4.60/$4.64 gap on the May contract, finishing in the middle of that gap. A highly regarded silver local loves the silver close and the fact that the gap was not violated to the downside. His feeling is that some commercial silver shorts are going to cover fairly soon.

The U.S. economic news was dreadful this morning:

Washington, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. initial jobless claims surged last week to the highest level in four months, distorted by a new law permitting workers whose benefits had expired to apply for an extension.

State unemployment offices received 460,000 new applications last week, up 64,000 in the week that ended Saturday, the Labor Department said. A week earlier, initial claims rose by 20,000.

nickel62 (04/04/02; 16:12:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 72739)
JCTex Thank you for the insight...It really is a very small world isn't it...
I was friends in high school with Willie Wolf who was killed a few years later in a police shoot out in LA. He was in the house with the other members of the Symbonese Liberation Army when the (he was the one white guy that Patty Hearst fell in love with or was raped by depending on who you believe) police snipers shot it up and set fire to it. I also like you think they probably did the right thing. I was just stunned that the quiet very peaceful guy I knew ended up that way less than two years after we were playing tag in the yard together. Strange world sometimes.

Pizz (04/04/02; 16:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72738)
@Black Blade
I had dinner at my best friends house last weekend. Hadn't seen him for a few weeks and asked him if he thought the economy had bottomed like the economists have said.

He looked at me kind of funny and said "Not Yet". I found out why a little later. His 25 year old daughter just got layed off last week, and his brother the week before. His daughter worked for the City and his brother worked in a support industry for telecom.

Trickle down effect from last year should start increasing lay-offs. Most of these will be (are) small companies and will not be picked up by the news media. Many companies in the Pacific NW held employees anticipating the "recovery", but now reality is setting in.

Second wave down won't be as noticable, but much more devastating to the economy.

Another real time economic flag. Our organization has had 3 burglaries in last two months. Hadn't had any for previous two years.

Should be at least a 3rd wave next year, but that will probably be banckrupsy related as the small businesses finally throw in the towel.

Tough times ahead as we know. I'll have a real good idea when reality really starts to kick in, because I work in retail auto, and we still can't find people willing to sell cars. Just as soon as I start seeing resumes come in for sales with Boeing, Lucent, etc. as previous employers, we'll be close to the bottom, or at least a lot closer. Until then, the ship (economy) is just taking on more water.

Pizz

YGM (04/04/02; 16:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 72737)
Randy........(TC)
Excerpt....-- wind from many directions. I leave it to each man to assess the weather and thus chart his own course according to his craft...........(TC)

Keep us informed of wind and it's directions. "All STORMS" start with a...... "Gentle Breeze"......YGM.

YGM (04/04/02; 15:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 72736)
Liberty Committee.....Ron Paul,......
Tireless Advocate of Gold and Liberty is at forefront again.....
The Liberty Caucus
******************
Rep. Ron Paul
Chairman
*********
Texas
Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett
Maryland
Rep. John J. Duncan, Jr.
Tennessee
Rep. Virgil Goode, Jr.
Virginia
Rep. John Hostettler
Indiana
Rep. Walter B. Jones, Jr.
North Carolina
Rep. Jack Kingston
Georgia
Rep. Butch Otter
Idaho
Rep. Richard W. Pombo
California
Rep. Denny Rehberg
Montana
Rep. Bob Schaffer
Colorado
Rep. John Shadegg
Arizona
Rep. Bob Stump
Arizona
Rep. Tom Tancredo
Colorado
Rep. Pat Toomey
Pennsylvania
Rep. Zach Wamp
Tennessee
Rep. Dave Weldon
Florida

YGM (04/04/02; 15:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72735)
Worthwhile Cause...............
http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/icc_petition_online.htm
American Justice for Americans -- No International Criminal Court for Us
>
>
> April 4, 2002
>
>
> Dear friend of liberty,
>
> The International Criminal Court (ICC) will soon become a reality. The
United Nations will hold a celebration for their new world court on
Thursday, April 11, 2002 in New York and Rome.
>
> The International Criminal Court will claim judicial supremacy over the
United States and its people. We are asking President Bush to make it clear
to the International Criminal Court that the supreme law of our land is the
Constitution of the United States -- not the ICC. Rescinding the American
signature to the ICC treaty that former President Bill Clinton authorized
would clearly express that conviction.
>
> If you haven't signed the petition to President Bush, please do so now. We
are in the process of preparing the petitions for delivery to the White
House.
>
> Link to Petition:
http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/icc_petition_online.htm
>
> Also, please tell a few friends about this petition.
>
> If you are one of the 100,000-plus people who have already signed the
petition, thank you!
>
> Kent Snyder
> The Liberty Committee
> http://www.thelibertycommittee.org

Sierra Madre (04/04/02; 15:50:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 72734)
Colin Powell to Middle East, Bush calls on Israel to withdraw from territories...

What's going to happen? Nothing!

No earthly power can dictate to Israel. They will carry out their plans, or take down the whole world with them.

Please tell me I am completely mistaken!

Sierra

TownCrier (04/04/02; 15:40:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 72733)
Strad Master, how is it that you feel Jensen's material to be inflamatory?
It's certainly gritty in its detail, but I'm not hearing anything from him that I haven't also been hearing on the televised news -- CNN to cite an example.

In recent days I've received scathing e-mail from all sides, asking why we would dare muck up our website with this Jensen nonsense since he "clearly has a pro-Israeli bias" according to one visitor and he "is grossly sympathetic to Palestinians" according to yet another. I'll assume that it is either one of these two positions that have you frustrated, rather than his other Mideast regional commentary.

So, which of the two is Jensen's handicap, or can it be both at once? Can it be that some people unknowingly filter the same commentary according to their own predispositions on the subject, overlooking the commonalities while focusing instead on the contentions? And just as surely, there are some people who can be at peace with everything, overlooking the differences while paying heed only to the points that fall on "their side". Yet some other people are like willow trees, bending whatever what the last wind blew; thus changing their viewpoint according to the last thing they heard. Others stand their ground against all winds, while yet others run headlong into any wind from any direction, merely for the sake of bending to no outside counsel.

Within the parameters of this discussion forum, the many items I post here are for informational purposes -- wind from many directions. I leave it to each man to assess the weather and thus chart his own course according to his craft.

R.

Boxman (04/04/02; 15:32:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 72732)
Black Blade is famous!
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?cfid=2174794&cftoken=13913&pid=1156
Well, maybe a slight exaggeration, but still nice to see him quoted elsewhere. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, given all the insight to gold and energy that he has given us.

BB, you're not going to start charging us, are you?

Best regards.

The whole segment:

An interesting USAGOLD post:

USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72645)
Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html
Something interesting is going on in the overall gold derivatives' positions. The top three U.S. gold bullion banks' positions fell from $73.2 billion in Dec00 to $48.9 billion in Dec01 reflecting the overall reduction in the gold carry trade positions over the course of 2001. John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) says "recent CB efforts, overt and covert, are designed to keep a short-term lid on gold's price, effectively 'holding the door open' for the commercial banks to get positions squared, or get out all together. If one of these major banks was to require rescue by the Fed or the German or UK Central Bank, it would be far more damaging to world economies, and the rescue more costly, than to keep a lid on gold and allow the big commercial banks get out with survivable losses."

Taking a closer look at the Gold Derivatives Table published at the News & Views page (linked above), one can see that most of the reduction has occurred at J.P. Morgan which went from $30.5 billion 12/00 to $7.3 billion 12/01. I find this very interesting. That makes two out of the big three American gold derivatives' players showing a reduction to the $7 billion level.

Is it now Chase's turn in 2002 to move to the $7 billion level?

I think Doody's right. There holding the door open with derivatives in order to exit their carry trade positions or get the losses to a manageable level -- a workout as we have described many times before. And Chase may be the last to squeak through before the gold demand slams it shut.

This is the best evidence available why gold might be ready to explode. It's like holding a spring with your foot -- when you let go you'd better get out of the way.

Everywhere you look in gold's numbers -- derivatives, the LBMA, etc -- the numbers are telling us that the gold carry trade and mine lending are being unwound.

This is one of the most solid indicators I've seen in a long while why the knights and ladies at this Table might take heart - - Nay, not just take heart, but tip their flagons in celebration.

The battle is being carried, the war won.

-END-

miner49er (04/04/02; 15:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 72731)
nickel62 @ 72717
Yes, yes, yes... well put...!

Then there's the additional consideration of each firm having to keep up with its most daring rival. If firm X, is willing to take certain risks to eek out a little more return to outdo its competition, each similar competitor generally has to undertake these practices to keep up, as the typical investor does not know enough of what goes on under the hood to satisfactorily gauge the additional dangers, and thus make a sound risk/reward discrimination.

Black Blade (04/04/02; 15:17:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 72730)
Oil Prices Close Lower After Bush Orders Powell to Middle East
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020404/200204041648000751_1.html

NEW YORK -- Oil prices tumbled Thursday after President George W. Bush called on Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories and announced that he was sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East in a bid to end the violence.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for May delivery slumped 98 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $26.58 a barrel, after setting a new six-month high of $28.35 during intraday trading. June crude oil surrendered 85 cents, or 3.1%, to $26.81 a barrel....

Black Blade: This is much of the reason for the sudden reversal of Oil and Gold today. Oil had hit prices above $28.00/bbl, and soon as Dubya gave his speech prices tumbled. Apparently there's a lot of faith in Dubya's and Colin Powell's abilities. We shall see.

Black Blade (04/04/02; 15:12:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 72729)
Retail Job Cuts Have Accelerated
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020404/retail_job_cuts_1.html

Retail Job Cuts This Year Could Be the Worst in at Least Two Decades

Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The pace of retail job cuts, which increased dramatically after Sept. 11, has accelerated in 2002 and this year's losses could be the worst in at least two decades, as the industry consolidates, according to a major employment study to be released Monday.

Black Blade: This doesn't sound like much of an economic recovery to me. In a recovery one would expect more consumer spending and therefore more hires in retail. Not a good sign � in a word "GRIM"

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food storage and basic goods program started.

JCTex (04/04/02; 15:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 72728)
nickel62 (04/04/02; 14:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 72720)
Nickel62, I just saw you post. If you don't mind, I'll have to get back to you later today, or in the morning.

For now, Charley was a great guy, the All-American type. Some of his other friends & I were talking about him the other day. All of us felt like he simply "went nuts." Not the type to kill a bunch of people, especially his mother and wife. He absolutely adored both of them.

But killing innocents is NOT okay....even when a friend does it.

Sorry, but have to get back to you later.
regards

Pizz (04/04/02; 15:02:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 72727)
First Quarter Earnings - Or "When the Worm Turns"
Must be real tough in the COO offices this quarter. Trying to justify multi-million dollar salaries, bonuses, etc with LESS THAN REAL NUMBERS to publish.

If my intuition is correct, nearly all public companies books are either pushed or at least aggressive. They've had to do it to keep their stock prices competitive and to keep their investors happy.

Now thanks to Enron, not only are the beancounters keeping the current books straight (or straighter) they are also on a witch hunt and are reserving the heck out of anything that has been optimistically booked (nice term for fraud) from quarters past that had been negotiated past the auditors. (Final numbers are negotiated just like barter - believe it).

Controllers are not intimidated in this environment and the real laughing matter from their point is that their marketing executives can't even gripe or put a spin on the fact that they feel current numbers aren't reflective of what they did in the past quarter.

What are the executives going to say?? We feel current numbers are low because we've been pumping our books in the past? I don't think so.

Market support seems to be drying up. Kind of like sliding real fast over thin ice on a frozen pond. When your momentum (earnings) slows, the ice has a bit of a problem supporting your wieght. JPM at 40 plus earnings???? Wish I could throw them a golden anchor.

Pizz

slingshot (04/04/02; 15:01:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 72726)
Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
RobotGuy
There are plenty of reasons in the world for Gold to rise and it still hanging around the $300.00 level. Every time we see a $2.00/$5.00/$6.00 rise in POG we tend to believe the BIG ONE is close at hand. Only to have the POG beaten back.
Looks like we are a family going on vacation. Driving to some amusement park and have two children in the backseat.
Yepper, you know that after about an hour driving they start in with, Are we there yet! Of course your answer is,Just alittle longer. You know you still have about 4 hours drive and you begin playing those on the road games. I SPY, Licence Plates,etc. So where is there? What is it going to take to get there? Yes, for the POG to rise.
Will it take China to invade Taiwan? North Korea to invade South Korea? Maybe. How about a full scale war in the ME.
Well, I don't think so. Not even a nuke or some Bio out break will do it. How can I say this. Just that with all that has happened GOLD IS DIRT CHEAP. So what do I think will do it. When it hits the public in the wallet hard.
When they finally realize it is just paper. If the stock market dropped again there would still be payroll deduction going into it. If you always do what you always done, you end up with the same results. They have to change their way of thinking. Otherwise, why would they take any provision to secure wealth. We are a society of credit. And credit equals debt. Gas is going up. Going to buy it anyway. Have to go to work. Grocery bill going up. Got to eat. Electric bill going up. Have to have lights. They public knows it going to take more fiat for the same things yet they fail to make the connection on how to preserve wealth. So, THERE is when it hits the wallet. That paper is just paper. By that time it will be too late for some. The warning signs are there. Argentina and Japan Knows. Until the general public of any country gets a jolt and the rug pulled out from under them, Its is my opinion gold will be slow to rise. But rise it will. So along the way, accumulate and enjoy the veiw.
All the roadsigns are there. We just have to be patient and follow them.
Heck, Are we there yet!

Slingshot----------------<>

Black Blade (04/04/02; 14:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 72725)
@Nickel62

If we are talking about Charles Whitman, then we are talking about someone who was mentally ill. He had approached professionals and clergy for help, however, they were not equipped to deal with his illness. After he was killed by the Texas Ranger who entered the upper deck, his body was transported to the medical center. An autopsy revealed a brain tumor (the cause?). Perhaps not a real comparison to terrorist though.

The situation in the Middle East is much more complex. One man's terrorist is another man's freedon fighter. Asw far as killing innocents as rationale for the difference, then we maybe we should reevaluate the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima, Nagasaki, the carpet bombing of Dresden (not a military target), The bombing of London, etc. Certainly many innocent were purposely killed in war and yet we do not refer to the combatants as terrorists. As I have said in the past - Murder millions and you're a conqueror, murder a few and you're a terrorist. Go figure.

- Black Blade

Siochain (04/04/02; 14:46:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 72724)
@Hipplebeck
Actually both sides have a dream of having it all...that's why they are enduring a nightmare....and the world faces a potential for a Major war.

Both have to give up their dreams and face reality of compromise...which so far they appear unwilling to do.

By the way, speaking of dreams...I had a strange one several weeks ago where I was seeing the Dome of the Rock blow up....I hope this was also a nightmare and not a premonition...for the women of my family seem to have a Celtic strain where dreams often come about when strongly felt ...so say a prayer ...for if that were to happen...the proverbial Hell would break loose!

Black Blade (04/04/02; 14:45:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 72723)
Jobless Claims Log Surprise Rise
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020404/economy_jobless_7.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of new U.S. jobless claims filed last week skyrocketed by 64,000, partly due to applications for a new government program that extends unemployment benefits for 13 weeks.

Black Blade: Note that recession level unemployment growth is often quoted at 400,000. The BLS announced 460,000 new unemployment claims (partly due to extended benefits). However, these are "seasonally adjusted" numbers (read statistically manipulated). Many others simply do not qualify for extended benefits. Tomorrows numbers are expected to show 50,000 new jobs. I seriously doubt it though as these numbers will be massaged as well � I expect to see additional job losses as there has been for several months.

TownCrier (04/04/02; 14:44:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 72722)
Catching the ECB/euro drift, yet? Good for gold.
I've been provided with the latest weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, worth special note because it reflects the latest asset revaluations based on their quarterly mark-to-market practices.

Cutting to the chase, the gold assets of the Eurosystem rose by 12.994 billion euros on the revaluation from last quarter's price per ounce, now standing at 139.808 billion euros in value.

And lest you think for a minute that the phenomenon was a result of the euro losing value, think again. Here's the quarterly performance of Eurosystem assets on a per unit basis as priced in euros.

DOLLAR unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.135 euro
@ end March �02 = 1.146 euro

YEN unit value
@ end 2001 = .00867 euro
@ end March �02 = .00866 euro

SDR (Special Drawing Rights) unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.4245 euro
@ end March �02 = 1.4297 euro

GOLD unit value (per troy ounce)
@ end 2001 = 314.99 euro
@ end March �02 = 347.32

Here, then, is the summary of the percentage performance of each asset over the quarter on a per unit basis:

dollar UP 1.0%
yen DOWN 0.1%
sdr UP 0.4%
gold UP 10.3%

Through this, even the dimmest central banker can see the future glowing firmly; and we can, too.

With this compelling trend, there is no wonder that the European Central Bank and its national member CBs allowed, for example, the EUR 1.6 billion drawdown last week of their net position in foreign currency. This asset account of foreign paper now stands at a still massive EUR 258.6 billion to start the next quarter.

Meanwhile, the gold asset account continues its generally steady climb since euro-launch January 1999 where it stood on the books at 99.598 billion euro. Allowing for the bolstering of the gold asset account by 1.5 billion euro with the Greek membership in January 2001 (and not forgetting the measure of early Dutch, Austrian, and late German sales in accordance with the Central Bank Agreement on Gold), the gold assets of the Eurosystem have performed nicely over the years, now valued at EUR 139.808 billion.

Look for more of this -- letting the winners keep running while the weaklings get cut from the team. I hope this summary has been helpful for showing gold in its new light.

Again, here's a reminder of the first element from ECB president Duisenberg's September 26th 1999 joint Statement on Gold from Washington, D.C.:

"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves."

Amen.

Randy

Hipplebeck (04/04/02; 14:37:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 72721)
stock markets
Every week huge amounts of money go into all those 401K plans. That has to mean that there is constant pressure on stocks to go up. Now, when stocks aren't climbing, where is all this money piling up?

nickel62 (04/04/02; 14:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 72720)
JC TEX
I noticed your comment about the shootings at the University of Texas back in the sixties. That was really one of the first such events that I was cognizant of. Would you mind telling how you came to know him and what drove him to that level of desperation?

Siochain (04/04/02; 14:36:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 72719)
And another story on declining mined gold
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/04/rtr559047.html
Global gold mine supply seen in sharp decline
Reuters, 04.04.02, 7:03 AM ET

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada.

"A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.

The findings are likely to encourage gold market bulls who see the prospect of reduced mine supply driving prices above $300 a troy ounce, where bullion has been capped for most of the past two years.

(Need to be sure you have gold on hand as well as BB's other listed items...I have some mining shares for play but like the real thing for security)

Hipplebeck (04/04/02; 14:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 72718)
My take on the Middle East
Every day that the Isrealis can stretch out negotiations, they are able to build more settlements and acquire more land. They have succeeded in stretching out these negotiations for years now and have taken large tracts of high ground in a strategic system of dividing up the Palestinians into smaller and smaller clumps. the Palestinians know this and they are watching their lands being taken over. They have tried fighting this slow encroachment in many different ways to no avail, and now are reduced to suicide bombing. What else can they do? The longer the status quo the more they lose. There are UN resolutions requiring the Isrealis to halt the building of settlements, but they are ignored.
I really believe that the Isrealis cannot give up the Zionist dream of having it all.
The great problem here is that unless they do give up the Zionist dream, they will one day want to build the new temple on the temple mount which requires removing the Mosque now in that location. If they do this, they will plunge the world into war, no doubt about it.
So it comes down to this, will the Isrealis be able to let go of Zionism and recognize that that mosque is going to remain there and they are going to have to stand down there praying at the wailing wall with Muslums standing up above them looking down from the temple mount? I think not.
Because if they do this they will not only have to let go of their long history, but they also fear that Arabs will be so emboldened that the Islamic dream of wiping them off the region will grow. There is no solution other than that which God has ordained, whatever that may be, but it aint gonna be pretty. I think most of us call it Armageddon

nickel62 (04/04/02; 14:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 72717)
Trust your stockbroker? What that job has really become in the modern era!
In all honesty it is
not really a question of the greed factor so much as the way the "Brokerage
firms" "financial advisors" or whatever you want to call them have structured
themselves in the last twenty years. They have made it very difficult to be an
honest broker for your clients. There main money makers are investment banking
and various asset collection and sale products. In other words they look at
the clients only as a potential market for the bonds and stocks that their
real clients the companies want to sell to them. The stockbroker is viewed as
simply someone who has a personal relationship with a collection of potential
buyers for "deals". So that when there is a new stock issue or a bond issue,
Merrill Lynch can say we have seven thousand brokers that will sell that issue
for you at the best price. That is it. The rest is just window dressing to
keep the clients passive and fully invested in whatever the brokerage firm
wants them to own. The various half truths like "long term investing" "buy and
hold" and you will make 10-15% if you wait long enough are really just buzz
words that years of salesmanship has divised to make it easier to tell the
client to stop whining when the stockbroker is really as confused and scared
as the client is. The main problem is that all the money of these firms is
made by selling stocks and bonds for corporate clients when the corporate
clients want to raise additional capital through debt or equity issues. The
commissions that you and other clients pay that they are looked upon as simply
a subsidy to reduce the cost of having the seven thousand stockbrokers there
to sell the securities of the firm for the large deals. In order to keep the
pigeons in the roost the firm spends a lot on advertising and positioning and
self serving "research" that is really only designed to acheive the main
reason the firm exists at all. This field much like medicine is not really the
Marcus Welby type of place that it once was, when capital was scarce and each
stockbroker had to work hard to get his client to take it out of the bank or
his business. Today capital is abundant and can be created by a refinancing
gimic or through the Federal Reserve waving their magic discount rate and
flooding the market with some more recently printed up liquidity. The whole
game has changed and just like in medicine if you think you are talking to a
caring Marcus Welby type on the other side of the investment desk, you are
either amazing fortunate to have found one or deluding yourself. There are a
few old timers left who have the clients best interests at heart and have such
a strong relationship with their clients that the firms leave them alone, but
in reality most are young inexperienced second tier intellects that are
totally clueless about what really drives the investment markets but know all
to well what gets them paid. Caveat Emptor was first uttered in ancient Rome
by a disgruntled mutual fund client. He was right, and wiser for the
experience. Most of the problem with the whole industry, and I am a
stockbroker by the way although I refuse to practice, is that truely reasoned
opinions that reflect the actual factors that should be considered in the
investment process are not discussed or really allowed to be aired. They would
queer the deal! If the public wakes up and hits the road we have no one else
to make a living off of. So you constantly hear only the bullish side of the
story and anyone who dares try to inform the investing public of the other
side of the equation is ridiculed, mocked as a pessemist, and marginalized. It
is like a court room trial where the search for justice is carried on by only
the prosecution being allowed to present their case. The defense is not
allowed to talk. The media who lives off the advertising revenue from the big
mutual fund companies and brokerage houses,tends to understand the concept of
not biting the hand that feeds it and the so called corporate "free press"
largely follows along. That said, it has not been that bad to be an investor
in this world until the politicans and wall street conspired to bubble the
market to levels way beyond any sensible level of value. With a Dow near
eleven thousand that would be highly valued at half that price the
consequences for our generation become their ability to retire. So the game is
rapidly becoming much more important, whether the clients want it to or not.
So that is what I meant by my reference to the Wizard of Oz. It is a period in
time when to not be informed of what is really going on with your capital will
throw a very long shadow.

Siochain (04/04/02; 14:05:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72716)
(No Subject)
Appears same game playing on GG ...and they did succeed there....well we know every trick will be played...but the time is getting short

Black Blade (04/04/02; 14:00:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 72715)
J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Other Banks Will Be Named in Enron Case
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APKvt_hUSSi5QLiBN

Snippit:

Houston, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Credit Suisse First Boston will be named as defendants in suits seeking billions of dollars over Enron Corp.'s collapse, people familiar with the litigation said.

Enron investors and former employees have decided to add law firms and as many as eight banks on Monday when they amend their suits, alleging fraud, against the energy trader and its former auditor, Arthur Andersen LLP, the people said.

Black Blade: Not really much of a surprise here. However, the scope of the Enron affair can be damaging to some corporate bottom lines.

Siochain (04/04/02; 13:46:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 72714)
Stock Manipulation as a way to get at gold
Black Blade & Sierra Madre...I agree with your points of last night re using gold stocks as another way to attack POG that's why I had posted those articles showing stock movements and comments by Big Boys this week.

Today, I have been watching Level II on NEM for well over an hour ....during the beginning of the time frame gold stocks were going up ....as we are aware NEM is often seen as the Leader in unhedged.....there was an interesting play between NYS and NAS ...both exchanges...where they would keep putting large numbers up and then pulling them ...trying to limit sales and lower price ...it certainly cut back action when NEM was on a good rise...finally NEM broke thru but it was a fight!

Now who do you think is behind these exchange moves...normal investor doesn't move large blocks and constantly pull and re-do...it was like a dance between the two

sector (4/4/02; 13:15:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 72713)
The Coming "Adjustment" to the Current Account Deficit...Morgan Stanley's Roach
The Word "Adjustment" is a Euphamism for "Devaluation"
Apr 04, 2002
Winds of Change Finally Blowing

On Current-Account Adjustments
Stephen Roach (New York)

Hints of America's coming current-account adjustment are already in the air. As Joe Quinlan noted in yesterday's Forum, just-released data on foreign capital inflows into the US for early 2002 point to a significant shift in the sources of external financing. In January, portfolio inflows into dollar-denominated assets slowed to just $11.3 billion, a marked deceleration from average monthly flows of $44 recorded during 2001. If this trend remains even remotely intact, I believe America's ability to finance its massive external deficit will become severely impaired. And then the US current-account adjustment will begin in earnest.

What might such an adjustment entail? That's a question I get a lot these days as I pound the table on what I believe is the key macro tension point for the US economy. Fortunately, there are important lessons from history that may shed some light on what the future holds for America as it faces up to the coming external adjustment. A recent research paper by a Fed economist provides some compelling evidence of potential responses as drawn from the experiences of some 25 current-account adjustments that occurred among industrialized countries over the 1980-97 period (see Caroline L. Freund, "Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries," Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion paper #692, December 2000, available at www.federalreserve.gov). While this history offers no guarantees of what lies ahead for the United States, there are some important lessons that I do not believe should be taken lightly.

First of all, the Fed study finds that the median current-account (CA) adjustment of these 25 episodes occurs when the external gap hits about 5% of nominal GDP. It then takes about three years, on average, for the adjustment process to run its course. Even after those three years, the median CA is still in deficit to the tune of about 1% of GDP. There is considerable variability within this sample as to which CA deficit threshold triggers the adjustment. The last time it occurred in the United States was in 1987, when the CA gap was 3.7% of GDP; three years later it had shrunk by 56% to 1.6%. There are, of course, many episodes of CA adjustments that predate the 1980 time frame. But the sample in the Fed study was restricted to that period largely because it had two key characteristics in common with current international financial conditions -- broadly based financial capital mobility and flexible exchange rates.

It's the dynamics of the CA adjustment process as revealed in this Fed study that I find most fascinating and pertinent for the economic outlook. (Note: The results reported below are for the median CA adjustment over the 25 episodes contained in the 1980-97 sample period). First, the adjusting country typically experienced depreciation in its real effective exchange rate of about 20%; in only two of the 25 instances did the exchange rate appreciate -- Canada in 1981 and Denmark in 1988. But they were the obvious exceptions. Typically, the devaluation began about a year before the CA gap hit its peak and then continued for another three years. At the same time, the depreciation in the nominal exchange rate was, on average, more than double the decline in the real exchange rate. Second, real GDP growth slowed, on average, by about three percentage points from the year prior to the CA peaking; that impact was largest in the first year of the adjustment process. Third, short-term interest rates typically rose in the beginning of the CA adjustment as central banks attempted to limit currency depreciation; toward the end of the adjustment process, short rates typically fell as the downside of the business cycle played out.

Fourth, the Fed study found that an improved trade balance was an important by-product of most of the CA adjustments in this sample period. Interestingly enough, trade turnarounds were mostly export led, with real export growth being boosted, on average, by four percentage points over the course of the three-year CA adjustment. Import growth, by contrast, slowed quite sharply in the first year of the CA adjustment -- a four-percentage-point reduction, on average -- but then returned to its pre-adjustment trend two years later. Fifth, CA adjustments are typically more investment- than saving-led; national saving ratios change little over the first two years of the adjustment period, whereas aggregate investment ratios typically fell by close to two percentage points over the same period.

All this paints a pretty clear picture as to what to expect in the coming US CA adjustment -- a weaker dollar, slower GDP growth, a less accommodative Fed, firmer exports, and weaker imports and investment. It's yet another manifestation of America's post-bubble adjustment process. During the Roaring 1990s, Americans (especially consumers) took great confidence from equity wealth effects and drew down their income-based saving balances to historic lows. The result was a saving-short US economy that had to rely increasingly on foreign capital to finance its IT-led investment boom. And America had to run a massive CA deficit in order to attract that external capital. But in doing so, the nation lived well beyond its means -- as those means were defined by the domestic income generation associated with national production.

The coming CA correction suggests that this same movie is now about to run in reverse. In my opinion, it's just a matter of when, not if -- and what triggers the adjustment process. Along those lines, there is great debate on whether the coming landing will be "soft" or "hard" -- gradual or abrupt. This is particularly problematic since the dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency and the US is the world's largest international debtor. Given the saturation of dollar-denominated assets in foreign portfolios, a crisis of confidence is not inconceivable. Should that occur, I believe a hard landing would be inevitable. The metrics of past CA adjustments has little to say about differentiating between these two possibilities. But one thing is certain: The longer the day of reckoning is put off, the more severe the macro impacts of the adjustment process are likely to be. That's because CA adjustments are not complete until the deficit gets reasonably close to balance. In the 25 instances covered in the Fed study cited above, CA deficits ended up, after three years, being less than 2% of GDP on all but four occasions. In other words, there's little dispute over the endgame. It's just a matter of when -- and from what extreme -- it begins.

Needless to say, all this has important implications for financial markets. As I see it, two aspects of America's looming CA adjustment should be especially important in that regard -- weaker GDP growth and a fall in the dollar. A shortfall in GDP growth implies a weaker earnings trajectory than most equity investors are assuming. And a weaker dollar should provide ample incentive for global investors to diversify out of dollar-denominated assets -- consistent with our global decoupling thesis. I remain convinced that America's ever-widening current-account deficit is on an inherently unstable path. A correction is coming and there's no dark secret as to what that means. It's just a matter of when the denial finally cracks.
+++++++++++++++
The writer has suggested for months that such a move is in the works.
Chapman's sources have the deval at 19% [Canadian dollar to rise by that amount]

The real problem is the "control" of gold. A $360-$375 pog will be shock enough for the paper sellers on Wall Street [The Pisanis of the World]. There are just too many variables swirling around to be certain about the consequences of a deval...but one is mandatory nonetheless.

This piece is a loud warning...an unmistakeable clarion call from a semi-official Fed mouthpiece...perhaps the final warning to GET GOLD...NOW.

It could easily "Get away" from the Fed. Especially with the arrogance factor radiated by AG.

JCTex (4/4/02; 13:09:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 72712)
TownCrier/Terrorists
Not sure why I am even bothering to reply.

"...It all boils down to that age-old question of who is a terrorist and who is a freedom fighter..." sounds like b.s. to me.

What difference who, why, or what awards; if you knowingly kill innocents, including women and children, that sounds like murder to me. Mass murder is a qualifier for how many.

Years ago, I was personal friends with a mass murderer. They shot him like a mad dog for his rampage. He died on the University of Texas Tower, and never got to win any those awards.

Charley was a mass murderer, and they killed him right where he was. They did the right thing.

Strad Master (4/4/02; 12:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 72711)
Question for Town Crier
RE: Posting # 77698
In following the URL link to the Centennial Precious Metals page you included with your recent post one finds at the top the following: "While we find Mr. Jensen's columns particularly informative with respect to foreign affairs, his opinions do not necessarily represent those of Centennial Precious Metals, USAGOLD, its management and clientele." If that is true, why do you bother posting Mr. Jensen's one-sided opinion piece at all? At best, it is laden with half-truths. At worst, it is morally confused claptrap. I've discussed the Middle East situation on mumerous ocassions with MK so I know that he doesn't subscribe to the ideas of moral equivalence that Jensen espouses. It seems to me that, while you are entitled to share Jensen's misguided opinions, it certainly does no good for CPM to post inflammatory opinion pieces on official CPM pages as if they were truly "informative with respect to foreign affairs."

miner49er (4/4/02; 12:18:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 72710)
Pizz @ 72703
Nice follow-the-bouncing-ball example...!

I already sent your post to a couple of guys here to help illustrate the travesty that goes on in the name of "reasoned and deliberated investment."

Good point, that these guys may intentionally reverse at key TA levels. Lots of technical players provide a nice solid wall to bounce off. This also serves to fool people into thinking that these kinds of analysis are as magical as they are made out to be -- which then reinforces the process, so that they have predictable fodder to work with the next time they cycle through... what a gas...?!

cheers,
miner

Pizz (4/4/02; 12:01:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 72709)
@Darkhorse
Learned the hard way. My wife's Barbi doll collection has a better track record than my option trading over the past 10 years.

She's getting ready to sell a few dolls now and buy gold. Haven't figured out if it's because of me or just the fact that she's run out of space in her doll room. At least she's pointed in the right direction.

Pizz

Hipplebeck (4/4/02; 12:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 72708)
rising floor
$252
$272
$292
$302

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 11:59:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 72707)
Pizz, I know exactly what you're talking about.
I do the same thing with smaller valued stocks. You need to have a good reserve to keep feeding the market to stimulate upward buying, not to mention it's all so helpful when the POG fluctuates, and everyone get's excited. Gold price fluctuations are the mechanism by which the overall expanding floor is advanced and strengthened. Sure, I'm not a billionaire, if I were I wouldn't bother with anything paper related, but even a rookie like myself can earn far greater returns than that percentage the bank pays on a savings account. I take losses, but generally overall my capital manages to continue growing.

Why not put it all into gold? This is my gambling money :)

Thank you for your post.

RobotGuy.

Hipplebeck (4/4/02; 11:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 72706)
Possible?
Mining company sells forward to Bullion Bank, Bullion Bank swaps forward contracts for vault gold and sells. Voila! Deep Storage Gold

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 11:42:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 72705)
Well, to my pleasant surprise gold managed to pop it's head above 300 for the comex close!

darkhorse (4/4/02; 11:42:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 72704)
@Pizz
You're a breath of fresh air...it's nice to know there are some people that know the "numbers" game and aren't one of the bad guys. Even a financial idiot like me can understand enough from your post to know which side us rookies need to stay on. Thanx for all your insight.

Pizz (4/4/02; 11:21:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 72703)
Volitility, Momentum, Market Makers, and Big Players, or Why You Shouldn't Play Paper
The game is so rigged against the average "Joe", that even if he can keep his sanity, he will lose his money surer than in a casino with the overall odds for the house. I'll try to explain as best I can.

Let's take a nice little PM stock trading for 10.00, but with a market maker(MM) trying to establish a long term position in the stock. Fundamentals are good for PM's and the market maker estimates the stock can (will if he's good) go to up over a three month period.

The MM establishes a "floor" for the stock with say a bid of 100,000 shares @ 9.50. These bid/ask prices are transparent to anyone with the right software (Level II Nasdaq for example).

Now, once a few traders realize that some big player hasn't stepped in and sold into the bid (a real risk for the MM or any player placing large limit orders), they start bidding the stock up and in effect taking all the limit sell orders over 10.00. All the while the MM uses his short term trading account keeping bids just below the market, capturing stock from the "market sell orders".

If a MM or big player keeps substantial bids right below the market price, the stock goes up with the MM accumulating shares. He also more than likely moves his "floor" bid up as a trailing buy to help protect the price of his trading account. Don't want a large trader who is playing the opposite game (short sellers) to be able to take the price down too far with a sell of 50,000 shares or so that would put the MM's trading account under water.

Complicated enough yet???

Now lets say the MM gets the stock up to 15.00 or so without attracting a big short player, who is someone who thinks or knows he has the resources to play the same game as the market maker, but on the downside with short positions. It's now time for him to take some profits or basically unload some of his stock. Now he puts in a block sell order in above the current price, and the whole thing starts over but on the downside. The MM can usually control the price on the way down so as to put a big bid back in at key technical levels - say fibbanchi numbers (smile)??? and then work the price back up.

Throw in day traders, short sellers, funds, option writers, into the mix, all with their own views on where the markets and stocks are going, all with different resources, most all with computers programmed with trading strategies, and you may just start to see why markets are volitile.

All the big players "war" with each other for their share of the invester's money, and each others. The above example is played out by some in seconds with spreads in the pennies, by others in minutes with spreads in the tenths, by others in hours with half point spreads, etc.

Now, big traders and MMs will also place big bids in and then pull them almost instantainously just to fool the other traders and try to trigger computer programs that they are positioned to profit from. Others have computer programs that place bids into the market at one price, but actually show another price on the level II screens in order to make their bids invisible.

Still want to trade paper????? Do you really think you know just when or where the MM is going to place his floor bid. Or how about a fund that has written a block of calls on your rising stock as they unload their positions and force the price down or cap the rise while there is good news. Sound familiar???

It's only about 100 times more complicated than my feeble example and explanation above.

Playing paper or buying physical??? Which makes more sense?

There's a storm on the horizon. Want to live in a paper house or a PM house. (Ah, hell, go play paper if you want, the big boys are having to fight it out amongst themselves right now and they'd love to have you toss your few bucks into THEIR GAME.)

Pizz

YGM (4/4/02; 11:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 72702)
Quite Interesting site...
http://www.reformation.org/rome_robs_fort_knox.html
Links

West Point Gold Reserves belong to German Bundersbank.

Freemarket Gold and Money Report

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Gold-Eagle.com

Gold.org

Link to the Mexican-American War of 1848

Gold rush Museum in Oakland, California

Sir Francis Drake's voyage to North America

Diary of Drake's voyage from a Roman Catholic college

Thanks to all the Australians that visit

Gold Discovery in Australia

Vatican ship sinks

Vatican bank has Nazi gold!!

Vatican Revealed As Major Dealer in Gold!!

Vatican Bank Top 10 Money Laundering Destinations!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Editor's Notes

Before the fall of the Papal States, the stolen gold was brought directly to the Vatican and stored in huge deep underground vaults. That is not possible now because the Italian customs would see the gold and the Italian government would keep it. For that reason they cannot ship directly but must use Swiss and German vaults to store the loot. Maybe it is wishful thinking on the part of the U.S. Treasure but they have re-classified all the U.S. gold as "deep storage gold."

Before the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Vatican feared a Soviet invasion of Western Europe and did not want to accumulate a lot of gold there. However, within the past 7 years, the flow of gold out of the U.S. and into Swiss and German banks has been enormous.

After South Africa, Russia is the second largest producer of gold in the world. By keeping the price of gold artificially low, Russia is deprived of millions in revenue that could be used to resist a NATO invasion.

According to the Bible, gold is so plentiful in Heaven that they use it to pave the streets and the Popes cannot steal any of it:

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 11:06:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 72701)
Forum Grey Matter
I thought of something just now. We often speculate in this forum on the causes of the immediate past; why did ths happen; why did that happen etc. The fluctuations in precious metals are often followed by a flurry of hypothesis, and sometimes cold hard facts.
Key word, followed.
Why is it that we do not combine our many talents and hypothesize the immediate future? Is it because we're all under the understanding that precious metals are rising in value and there are no two which ways about it.
I think this recent subtle drop in gold could have been determined had we stuck our heads together and speculated what the immediate future might hold. Sure, there are always random functions, but for the most part we all have a general consensus of what is happening, and what is likely to happen in the near future.

For example, last weekend I was thinking to myself gold will probably go down this week, without thinking too hard of the reasons why it might. If I were sure about myself, I could have stood to make a little money. I am also thinking that gold may continue to drop a little over the course of the next several hours, but will probably go back up on Friday, closing above 305. Now here's the clincher, I'm not certain, that's just my gut feeling.

Would anyone care to join me in my speculation of the near immediate future of market conditions?

If I were to provide reason for my speculation it would probably be another page of blah blah blah, so I'll stop here for now.

RobotGuy.

Belgian (4/4/02; 10:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 72700)
@ Old Yeller
Sir, your Morgan Stanley article on CA-deficit, learns us that the politico/financial collusion, chooses the most appropiate moment for the final inevitable corrections !
Stockmarket / Gold / Interest rates, are managed against the clock, ticking economic realities. Adjustments or better "crashes" up or down just wait for their approval signal ! Than the markets get a fresh bout of freedom...alas for temporary adjustments. The dollar (down) and interest rates (up) are still defying gravity. And there are so many dollar-holders out there ! The main reason why long awaited approval for adjustment stays away is the monstrous "Derivative" positions that builded the mega anomaly in the first place. It was not assurance but speculation with a purpose of blowing things up out of proportion. etc...etc... Thanks for bringing it up.

Galearis (4/4/02; 10:05:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 72699)
@Black Blade and all: Ted Butler on Ag exports by China
http://216.234.182.183/members/eagleranch/#os-2
While the market may face a rough patch in the near term, due to the lopsided and negative (and manipulative) COT position in gold, silver and copper, the fundamentals in silver are something else. There have been multiple posts recently, on every metal site around, about how much silver Red China is exporting. Not only are these stories pure c()ap and unsubstantiated, they are obviously being leaked out for an entirely diffrent purpose - to help Red China buy silver on the cheap. Here, you're going to have to use some common sense. The numbers being thrown out go like this - China produces around 60 million ounces per year, and is exporting around 40 million oz. That implies a net consumption of 20 million ounces a year.

The US (the world's largest consumer of silver, and every other commodity) consumes around 250 million ounces a year, on a population of 280 million. Let's call that an ounce per head. China has a population of some 1.3 billion, and consumes just 20 million ounces? Huh? Does that make sense to you? While I know China is not consuming an ounce per person, it is consuming a hell of a lot more than 20 million ounces. After all, its economic growth has been blistering for years, compared to the US and the rest of the world. It is Kodak's second largest market currently, and that company says it will be its number one in the not too distant future. Additionally, China is said to be the world's second largest consumer of copper. It is not possible for them to consume the small amounts of silver implied in the planted stories. I don't deny that China is refining and smelting more waste recycling silver, with the waste imported and the refined silver being exported. Obviously, the folks sending the waste to China for refining, demand the finished product in return. That's because of China's willingness to tolerate environmental damage not acceptable elsewhere in the world. But its willingness to be the toxic processor of last resort, does not make them a big net exporter.

Red China treats its commodity statistics as state secrets. It only tells you what it wants you to think. It wants you to think it has plenty of silver. Common sense should tell you with a mine production of only 60 million ounces a year, a population of 1.3 billion, and a goal and trend for its people to enter the modern world, China, of all countries on the face of the earth, faces a silver need and crunch more desperate than can be imagined. These stories are intended to make it easier for them to buy silver. Don't be fooled by their lies - use your common sense.
**********

As usual, well said.

G.

TownCrier (4/4/02; 09:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 72698)
Jensen update shows the face of terrorism worn by many, for "good" and "bad"
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020404.html
HEADLINE: 'Israelis, Palestinians both have blood on their hands'

(excerpts)

Fifty-seven Islamic nations ended a three-day conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, by condemning terrorism "in all its forms" but failing to define it.

Arab delegates unanimously rejected "any attempt to link terrorism to the struggle of the Palestinian people in the exercise of their inalienable right to establish an independent state."

It all boils down to that age-old question of who is a terrorist and who is a freedom fighter. Some of today's nations were, in fact, born of terrorism and some terrorists of yore are now respected statesmen and Nobelists.

Terrorism freed the southern Irish Republic from British rule and has forced Britain to relax its hold on Northern Ireland. Much of colonial Africa and parts of Asia were liberated by terrorist wars. Israel had its terrorists and the Palestinians, too.

Menachem Begin blew up the King David Hotel to drive the British out of Palestine. The Irgun and Stern Gang terrorized Palestinians before the creation of the state of Israel. And Yasser Arafat has employed terror against the Jewish state.

Yet Begin won the Nobel Peace Prize for signing the Camp David accord, as did Arafat and two other Israeli leaders for signing the Oslo accord. And the ANC's Nelson Mandela, who spent most of his life imprisoned as a terrorist, is not only a Nobel laureate but hailed around the world as one of its premier peacemakers.

That's why the United Nations, which has spent years grappling to define terrorism, has never managed to do so. And that's why President Bush has been forced to admit that he cannot brand Arafat a terrorist simply on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's say-so.

While Sharon compares Arafat to Osama bin Laden "that's not a comparison the president accepts," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, noting that Arafat participated in peace talks before they broke down and, for better or worse, remains a symbol of Palestinian aspirations.

Lev Grinberg, a sociology professor at Ben Gurion University who frequently writes for the daily Maariv, says the United States is "evil" for supporting Sharon, whom he considers as bad a terrorist as the suicide bombers he is after. "The state terror and war crimes perpetrated by the Israeli government are legitimized as 'self-defense' while Arafat, even under siege, is demanded to arrest 'terrorists.'

"At the same time, Sharon's responsibility for Israeli war crimes is completely ignored. Who should be arrested for the targeted killing of almost 100 Palestinians? Who should be sent to jail for the killing of more than 120 Palestinian paramedics? Who will be sentenced for killing more than 1,200 Palestinians and the collective punishment of more than 3 million civilians during the last 18 months?

"And who will face the international criminal tribunal for the illegal settlement of occupied Palestinian lands and disobeying U.N. resolutions for more than 35 years?"

Sharon and Arafat both have blood on their hands. Perhaps the European Union's Javier Solana was right in pointing out that "neither is a saint" and both sides would be better off with new leaders.

----(more at link above)-----

In a tumultuous world beyond your personal control, it makes good sense to own some gold. Gold is wealth itself, while the value of paper depends on counterparties who tend to fail or simply step away from financial obligations when chaos permits.

R.

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 09:47:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 72697)
North Korea - - - Strong Words
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=F1ARAMXCAU3XECRBAEKSFEYKEEARMIWD?type=topnews&StoryID=774243
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Thursday that the United States was its "most wicked sworn enemy" in a series of diatribes issued less than 24 hours after Pyongyang dropped hints it might restart frozen dialogue with Washington.

"The U.S. is the most wicked sworn enemy of the Korean nation as it is not only hindering inter-Korean exchange and cooperation ... but also putting a stumbling block in the way of achieving Korea's reunification," the state media quoted the North's Asia-Pacific Peace Committee as saying.

A separate KCNA report quoted a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman as demanding Washington pay compensation for what it said was a U.S. failure to uphold a key deal which froze Pyongyang's suspected nuclear weapons program.

Yet another statement, in the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, demanded the withdrawal of U.S. troops in South Korea, saying "it is imperative to put an end to the presence in South Korea by the U.S. imperialist aggression troops."

In what was taken in Washington as a possible sign North Korea was willing to talk, late on Wednesday, KCNA quoted a Foreign Ministry official as saying Pyongyang would re-engage with an international consortium at the heart of the crucial nuclear agreement with the United States.

__________________________________________________________________________________

RobotGuy; North Korea surprised me when it was implied they were considering talks again, but then they've just done a seemingly 180 and surprised me again. Might as well throw Canada in with the U.S. too, cause we seem to have an affinity with each other, and Cretien seems to be quite willing to assist wherever assistance is required. North Korea, Iraq, surprising news headlines in roughly the same 24hrs, hmmmm.

Belgian (4/4/02; 09:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72696)
Decoding the speech ....
POG (307$ >> 301$) was the only one in the knew of this speech and its content. Enough is Enough...!?
To Europ : Shut up and leave us alone. Don't interfere with Arafat support. Only Germany (+ Russia) is "with us "...ask Welteke...and remember their holocost past !
Emphasis on the Palestine support(ers) on the adress of Iraq/Syria.
Blair meets Bush this weekend and will co-decide on the Powell C.(not Rich) message to the ME. Hypocritical US/Saudi friendship was also in the message. The word "viable" disappeared out of the mentioning of Palestinian state.
27$ + for POO HURTS ! Arafat is most probably out ! My guess is the (wanted) escalation as a result. But for the time baing, the speech has temporary avoided POG to break its 308$/310$ barrier ! Thanks.

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 09:33:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 72695)
Nice to see the old Canuck buck heading for the hills again - - - NOT!! I'm getting really tired of this dollar, I wonder if my employer will pay me in gold?

Mr Gresham (4/4/02; 09:28:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 72694)
Here's the rub...
IMO, the birth of Israel, in our lifetimes (or at least mine), was all about the right of a people to survive attempts at extermination, and to have a safe homeland. It was about burying Hitler's ghost with a big final "Nyahh nyahh, you LOST, sucker!"

Now, obviously Israel, the actually-existing nation of today, doesn't believe it has to live up to my ideals, or anyone else's outside its own borders. It gets to play like any other nation, using what it has to get what it wants. Fair enough. But that threatens to erode the special sympathies that I and many others hold for it, which it doesn't count as worth very much at all.

It really is the conflict between the ideal and the realpolitik, written in a stark contrast for our noses-pushed-into-it viewing.

Mr Gresham (4/4/02; 09:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 72693)
RobotGuy: Pearls Before...
It makes you wonder just who to tell anything to, doesn't it? And wish you hadn't...

TownCrier (4/4/02; 09:04:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 72691)
INSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS: 'Bush's muddled approach to Mideast does nothing'
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020402.html
Latest Jensen (excerpt):

Never has President Bush seemed more impotent -- or muddled -- than he does as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians moves from mayhem to madness.

While other world leaders demand that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon halt his military offensive in Palestinian cities, Bush demands that Yasser Arafat "stop the violence" -- even while Israeli troops are shooting his policemen.

Arafat, in fact, has repeatedly condemned suicide bombings, but this has not stopped them. The 18-year-old schoolgirl who blew herself up outside a Jerusalem supermarket did not have Arafat's OK; actually, she defied his orders not to harm Israeli civilians.

Such distinctions are lost on Sharon, who blames Arafat for everything: He is the architect of a "terrorist infrastructure," an "enemy of Israel and the free world in general," and a danger to the Middle East. Bush apparently agrees, while his State Department does not.

Asked if the storming of Arafat's office was justified, the president replied: "Israel is a democratically elected government and the government is responding to the will of the people for there to be more security. Israel will make the decisions necessary to defend herself."

The State Department [...] is "greatly concerned about civilian casualties" and has asked Israel to "carefully consider the consequences" of its military actions.

...Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security adviser to President Carter, in an interview with CNN: "I can see two major jeopardies ahead if we don't step into the breach. If the tragedy between Israelis and Palestinians degenerates into total violence, if Arafat is killed, we'll probably see major uncertainty, major instability in the Middle East. We'll become more isolated in the war on terrorism because the Arabs will unite against us. And we could even get an oil embargo with the Saudis, the Iraqis and Iranians joining forces despite their disagreements. That's a very, very ominous scenario."

----(click link for full article)-----

A diversification into gold makes sense. Gold represents real wealth during good times, and during bad times it represents portable protection from financial collapse resulting from lost confidence and from couterparty default.

R.

sector (4/4/02; 08:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 72689)
Japan Telco NTT...Hammered for $15.9 Billion...More "Good News" from a Moribund Economy
NTT warns of record loss after $15.9bn charge
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: April 4 2002 14:28 | Last Updated: April 4 2002 14:36

NTT, Japan's dominant telecommunications group, on Thursday revealed the extent of the damage incurred from its overseas foray. It warned that its net loss would be more than double previous forecasts due to an extraordinary charge of Y2,095bn ($15.9bn), the largest ever by a non-financial Japanese company.

The charge reflects write-downs on overseas investments by its international and mobile subsidiaries and restructuring costs needed to cut excess personnel at its two domestic operating companies.

NTT said its net loss for the year would surge to Y865bn, from the Y331bn originally forecast, although sales and recurring profit forecasts remained the same at Y11,812bn and Y665bn respectively.

But analysts and investors put a positive spin on the revised outlook, saying it cleared the way for a profit rebound.

"True, this is a huge pool of red ink. But getting the write-downs out in the open wipes the slate clean," said Fumiaki Sato, of CDIC IXIS Asset Management. "The bad news is out there and the market can now refocus on prospects for the core businesses."

Of the extraordinary losses, Y1,403bn stems from overseas investments made by NTT DoCoMo, its mobile arm that went on a Y1,800bn buying spree at the peak of the telecoms bubble, and NTT Communications, its long-distance and international subsidiary.

An additional Y692bn charge reflects restructuring costs at NTT East and West.

DoCoMowrote down Y616bn to reflect the decline in value of its investment in AT&T Wireless, Hutchison 3G UK and KG Telecom in Taiwan. This followed a charge of Y300.8bn related to its investment in KPN Mobile in the first half, bringingDoCoMo's total write-downs of overseas investments to more than half the Y1,800bn it has spent expanding outside its home turf.

As a result of the additional charges, DoCoMo will report its first ever loss of Y36bn at the net level.

NTT said its directors would not receive a bonus for the first time, with the president and chairmantaking pay cuts of 20 per cent, the vice-president 15 per cent, and 10 per cent for other directors.

NTT Communications, which has already taken a Y4,980 charge against the decline in value of its investment in Verio, the US web-hosting company, will book a further Y40bn impairment loss against Verio, and Y52bn against its investment in PLDT in the Philippines and others.

The charges allow NTT to deal with the value of its investments in one swoop and concentrate on tackling the increasingly difficult domestic market.

The group faces severe pressure in practically all areas of its business as competition has intensified amid Japan's deflationary market environment.

At the same time NTT faces renewed pressure from the US, which on Thursday published a report calling on Japan and the EU European Union to lower mobile phone interconnection rates and provide "reasonable" prices.

However, Keiji Tachikawa, DoCoMo president and chief executive, on Thursday disputed the US claims: "Access charges in Japan are lower than in Europe. Japan's [charging] system is different from the one in the US, so a comparison can't be made."
+++++++++++++++++++++
This should only add to the gloom and loss of confidence of the Japanese savers...pushing them towards gold.

Truthcaster (4/4/02; 08:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 72688)
Gold just above 300
Gold is still under pressure this morning and is holding
just above the 300 level at 300.50 dwn $3 It looks to me that we may visit the 290's again good time to buy more
I guess. Crude oil is up at open 39 cents a barrel to $28.
and today at the pump here in the midwest for the cheap
gas, 1.50 a gal. ouch.. Truthcaster

JCTex (4/4/02; 08:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72687)
Hipplebeck (4/4/02; 08:05:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72686)
My personal opinion is that it doesn't matter what anybody thinks about much of anything.

The bought-media tells us what to think, and the government "statisticians" feed us what all mushrooms need.

As long as paper prices physical, the only opinions that count are the cabal's opinions.

Hipplebeck (4/4/02; 08:05:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72686)
Canuck
It is my personal opinion that the price of gold is still tightly connected with the perception of inflation. The price does rise a little when something happens like the WTC or a flare-up in the Mid East, but not nearly as much as you would expect. Everytime they feel like the economy is coming back strong, they fear inflation is coming with it. When it feels like Uh-Oh we are maybe not coming out of this downturn yet, the price of gold goes down. I have said this before here, gold will not really take off until there is a real fear of inflation, then watch out.

Old Yeller (4/4/02; 07:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 72685)
Stephen Roach on the US C/A deficit
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020404-thu.html#anchor0

Adjustment coming,not a matter of if,just when.

He feels it's going to be a "hard landing",too.Due to the scale of the problem and the total lack of focus on the implications,I would agree.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (4/4/02; 07:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72684)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/rationale.html

They make new BULLION every day.

They stopped making these BEAUTIES long ago.

A fixed supply has its advantages.

Call USAGOLD / Centennial to discuss the investment strategy that's right for you.

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 07:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 72683)
Black Blade - - - Did you already post this one??
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B518277B7%2D56DD%2D4DDE%2D822E%2D84BA56240D63%7D&siteid=mktw
snippet:

First-time requests for state unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped 64,000 to 460,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists looked for jobless claims at a level of 377,000.

A Labor official said the unexpected surge was due to re-applications for extended benefits from already out-of-work individuals who haven't yet been hired again.

After recently signed legislation extending benefits, workers whose benefits had already expired are now able to receive funds for another 13 weeks if they signed up after March 15.

The four-week moving average, which irons out weekly fluctuations, stood at 403,750, up from 384,000.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
(More to article)

RobotGuy - - - Surprise numbers, go figure. You mean we weren't able to predict everything like we thought we could?

Truthcaster (4/4/02; 07:09:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72682)
Trouble brewing for J.P. Morgan and more.
Hi All-
I was reading on Bloomberg were there is a law suit
against J.P. Morgan chase on the enron collapse. And I
see that the jobless rate is up again, if in fact it ever
went down. Hope to see a pop in gold's today I wonder if
300 mark will hold thru the rest of the week? I guess will
wait and see. Have a good one.... Truthcaster

RobotGuy (4/4/02; 07:00:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 72681)
My Fellow Canuck
IMO I think you hit the nail on the head when you said "profit taking." It would seem to me that after all these years of people slamming precious metals as a reliable investment, people who are easily influenced will tend to listen closely and of course follow like lemmings. If someone who has never supported the idea of investing in the realm of precious metals is suddenly impressioned to do so they might be rather nervous once climbing aboard, and they will probably likely be the ones who jump overboard as soon as there's a mild swell. I think we might see this for awhile, as there are a lot of people including many of my close friends who are still very comfortable bashing precious metals. I told a few of my very good friends a year and a half ago to take all of their investments out of techs and put them into gold and they all laughed at me. Today many of them are angry at me, or so it seems, cause they didn't listen to me. I have another close friend who is just completing a university course that will enable him to be a market analyst or 'cheerleader' as I prefer to call them. I had a good long discussion with him over the subject of precious metals being a wise long term investment in light of recent and past events including but not least the suppression of gold and silver. My good fiend has been taken by the masses of mainstream education and will have nothing to do with it, even though I proved to him over the course of the last year that precious metals funds have had superior gains over any other funds. "It's merely a fluke!" he would say, precious metals funds have been losers for many years and they will be in the future. My mother is also quite involved in the investment world, and she told me a year ago not to put my money in gold, that it was too risky. I proved her wrong, but she will never admit that I was right.

My point is, is that there are a great many doubting Thomas' out there, and for good reason, they've just been burned bad by every other market. I think many will jump at small profits in the beginning, but when they see that this market is going to be the new(old) market for security and that it isn't going to fail we will see a neverending gradual incline for our PMs.

I hear people talking about investing their money in something tangeable like houses, cars, anything that might have some significant value, but let's not forget over the long run houses get run down, cars rust, and cd's may soon be a thing of the past. We all know that once all the known PM resources are exhausted, they won't be making any more. I have always considered precious metals an excellent long term store of wealth.

But after all, I'm just a RobotGuy.

Black Blade (4/4/02; 05:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 72680)
Canuck

It may be possible that much of that repatrioted cash is finding its way into the Nikkei. Oh yeah, I should point out that the Japanese government pension fund has been propping up the Nikkei as well with strong buying on occasion.

Black Blade (4/4/02; 05:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 72679)
Canuck

It could be that the markets were spooked with all the accounting scandals hitting energy and energy related companies from Enron to Williams. With the current situation in the Middle East, who knows what will happen. As far as the Nikkei, there is some evidence that Japanee are calling cash home to Papa. In other words, other markets are suffering due to lack of investment and Japanese calling home cash from foriegn investments. Anyway, that is the speculation from some people. Today looks like it could be another wild ride on Wall Street as no one has a clear feel for the market. Who knows - could be fun. I have no fear though as I have made my preparations (have PMs and still in positive territory in my investments) and now it is all a game. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Canuck (4/4/02; 05:07:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72678)
@ BB
I appreciate your message but I think (fear) we are missing
something. I went thru approximately 20 PM stocks, half-a-dozen energy trusts and another dozen O&G majors, they ALL simultaneously fell off a cliff at (more or less) the same time, an extreme, sudden, unexplainable reversal.

They can't all be accounting crooks, I appreciate that possibly they got painted with the same brush. Please notice that after Comex/Nymex closed on Tuesday (gold rising to approx. 305) the sell-off started between 2 and 3pm. The traders were telling us something (markets always lead, yes) and sure enough POG and shares dived yesterday.

Do you find it odd that the Nikkei is rising? Most markets are struggling post-Apr. 1 but the Nikkei is rising, why? Has the Japan crisis thing been glossed over?

Israel has taken over, the bombers have stopped. Is the ME situation de-escalating? In the eyes of the traders it sure is. Are they correct? This will determine short-term trading, will it not?

I mentioned a key statement from the Arab summit the other day. The Arabs said, "...an attack of Iraq is an attack of ALL the Arab world." Has the imminent attack of Iraq been traded off for Israel's peace?

A couple weeks ago a very long article in the Globe and Mail suggested that a deal was being struck under the table for Hussein and Sharron's 'head-in-a-basket'.

I believe the opposite may be occuring now. Iraq's peace has been traded for Israel's (temporary?) This, in my very humble opinion, will be confirmed by the non-attack of Iraq even after Husseins blatant terrorist statements yesterday.
After all, the US was warned, in no uncertain terms as a result of the summit. This is why the US is 'doing nothing'.

Thoughts.

Canuck.

SteveH (4/4/02; 05:00:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 72677)
JA
Present.

SteveH

ps. Thanks

Canuck (4/4/02; 04:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 72676)
I more I read and listen the more I am confused
You know, after the statement out of Hussein yesterday ( first, admission of paying suicide bombers and second, increasing pay from 10k to 25k) I cannot find any reasonable explaination why a flurry of bombs haven't leveled Iraq yet.

What is Arafat's condition? Every stinking news channel was riveted on him all Easter week-end telling us of each of his urinations and now nothing. I understand they (media) has been booted out but what is going on?

Israel has taken over, 100's on tanks mobilized in every town, Hussein waving MORE terrorist money around, admission that he is behind all this and GOLD, OIL & GAS falls off a cliff?

Why is this so MUCKED UP?

Black Blade (4/4/02; 04:43:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 72675)
Re: Canuck - Energy Share Prices and Oil

Why are energy shares falling while oil and natural gas prices are much higher? That's the big question. We just discussed something similar about Gold and Gold shares. I was watching a Brit analyst who asked the same question about oil. No one seems to know the answer. The only possibilities I can think of are 1) profit taking; and 2) more Enronitis. Williams (a pipeline and energy compny) is under investigation by the SEC for questionable accounting. Where have we heard that before?

Another blow to the sector came when an energy trust Eott Energy Partners Ltd. (EOT) declared that they were not going to make a first quarter distribution. Other than that Euro regulators declared that they have assurances from OPEC that the trading range for oil will remain between $25 and $28. Meanwhile Oil holds at about $27.50, and natural gas is higher by 5 cents at $3.55 Mbtu.

The outlook for energy is that we will have higher prices so this general trend may be temporary. At the same time the situation continues to deteriorate. The press got ahold of unflattering pictures of Israeli police and military beating peace demonstrators. Througot the Middle East there are Arab demonstrations around US embassies. It would not take much for outside terrorists to do something while attention is diverted. We definitely live in "Interesting Times". Cheers!

- Black Blade

Cavan Man (4/4/02; 04:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 72674)
Bethlehem
200 Palestinians hold out in reputed site of Christ's nativity

The bodies of Samaya Moussa Abda (64) and her son Khalid Yakoub Isa Abda (37) were locked as if in a final embrace, sprawled against a bloody sofa on the floor of their little shop in Bethlehem's old quarter. By Peter Beaumont, in Bethlehem and Michael Jansen, in Jerusalem.

The Israeli soldiers who came to their door on Monday had been shouting through the metal door for Samaya and Khalid to open up.

When they refused, the soldiers fired 18 bullets through the door, cutting down Samaya and her son, who had collapsed and died in the gloomy ground floor room.

Yesterday, as a tense stand-off continued in the nearby Manger Square, site of the Church of the Nativity built on the reputed birthplace of Jesus, a few hundred metres from the Abdas' little house Israeli soldiers continued to move through the streets from door to door.

We came across two columns of them, retreating ahead of us in the direction of Manger Square, firing shots into the doors that they had already blasted from their hinges as they went.

On every corner and every block the soldiers had smashed the water pipes and mains, destroyed cars and ripped up electricity cables.

Elsewhere we found other remnants of the continuing fighting: an armoured panel, ripped from an armoured personnel carrier that had run into a wall. Elsewhere, the drifts of spent shell casings from the Israeli soldiers' weapons.

We halted when the Israeli soldiers called to us to come no nearer to the square, where some 200 Palestinian armed militants were holed up in the Church of the Nativity.

Among those trapped inside the church, the Vatican confirmed yesterday, are 40 Franciscan monks and nuns, as well as 30 Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks.

Ms Mary Kelly, a nurse from Baltimore, West Cork, was among a group of volunteers who tried and failed to reach the church to treat 30 wounded. She is a friend of Ms Caoimhe Butterly, also from West Cork, who has been inside Mr Arafat's headquarters since last Friday night.

"I was moved to come out to support the Palestinian people," Ms Kelly asserted. "We are hoping the international community will halt this brutal aggression. Two ambulances have been crushed by Israeli tanks. The Holy Family Hospital is riddled with bullets, which also destroyed the statue of the Virgin on the roof of the church nearby. There are women inside giving birth, and 30 terrified children."

The aim is to get an ambulance manned by a doctor and a medic to the church to treat less serious cases and evacuate those who need hospital care. The Red Cross has not been able to get through.

(Guardian Service)

Spartacus (4/4/02; 04:38:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72673)
IMF
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=David%20DeRosa&touch=1&s1=derosa&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APKqMzhKvSXQncyBU

It's Time for U.S. to Withdraw From the IMF: David DeRosa

barnacle bill (4/4/02; 04:32:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 72672)
Reg Howe - Class Action Lawsuit
The judge said Mr. Howe did not have standing, but that others; gold-mining companies and investors do. Personally, I have lost a lot of money on gold options sincethe manipulation began. Does this include you? How hard would it be to file a class action lawsuit? How much would a full page ad in the WSJ cost? Call it the NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD LAWSUIT; or JASON RETURNS-YOU CAN'T KEEP A GOOD LAWSUIT DOWN. I'll bet the WSJ would not print it. They would probably say we didn't have standing.

Canuck (4/4/02; 04:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 72670)
@ BB
A question for you Sir.

I hold a sizeable chunk of change in an energy trust that literally fell off a cliff yesterday.

Why the sudden reversal yesterday? Oil & gas have made the same sudden spin-around as PM's.

What do you make of this? Are traders looking at a de-escalation in the ME? The non-rebound in the economy? Both? Neither?

This is really confusing.

HELP!!!

TIA

Spartacus (4/4/02; 04:14:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 72669)
Central Banking 101 Re-Visited
http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=4631

What matters is the Fed's rationale for the campaign and how it sells that rationale to the markets. By Paul A Mc Culley from Pimco.

Canuck (4/4/02; 04:09:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 72668)
@ Aristotle
We await your words of wisdom Sir.

Black Blade (4/4/02; 04:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 72667)
Is U.S. ready for chaotic oil markets?
http://www.msnbc.com/news/732411.asp?cp1=1

Reserve provides less import protection than it did in �85

Snippit:

April 2 � As oil prices soar above $27 a barrel for the first time in six months and Saddam Hussein calls on Arab states to use oil as a weapon to punish countries supporting Israel, America's insurance policy against an import cutoff stands at less than half of what it was in 1985. The 560 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are enough to replace about 53 days of imports. Seventeen years ago, the reserve afforded a 118-day cushion. "WE HAVE LOST substantial ground. Our level of import protection has declined dramatically," said Larry Goldstein, a veteran analyst with the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York think tank.

Black Blade: Note that Bill Clinton authorized a draw down of the SPR during the last "Energy Crisis" in a failed bid to secure the presidential election for Al Gore. That oil also has not been returned. As a result the security of the nation was put in jeopardy for the sake of politics. Oil prices current hover around $27.50/bbl and Natural Gas is higher at $3.55 Mbtu.

Black Blade (4/4/02; 03:03:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 72666)
China issues first batch of 2002 silver export quotas
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020402001514&query=precious+metals

Snippit:

BEIJING : China issued its first batch of silver export quotas for 2002 totalling 1,260 tonnes, higher than the full amount for 2001 due to a recovery of global prices and weak domestic demand, an industry official said on Monday. China, the second largest producer behind Mexico and a major global exporter of the precious metal, issued three batches of silver quotas last year amounting to 1,180 tonnes, traders said. "This is just the first batch and we expect the government to issue more if world silver prices remain at current bullish levels," said the official.

Black Blade: "Interesting"

Golden Bear (4/4/02; 02:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 72665)
Manipulation of Gold
Hello everyone,

About an hour ago there was a clown from Barclays on CNBC Europe stating that the manipulation of the gold market story has no merit (geez, someone conveniently chose to ignore Reg Howe's evidence and the Judge's conclusions). I only caught the last phrase of the interviewer reiterating the clown's view, but missed the bulk of the argument as put forward by him.

Did anyone catch this?

Interesting that the story is being discussed now after the ruling by the Judge - attempts to discredit the whole case? - another attempt by the cabal to divert the attention of the masses...

Cheers.

Golden Bear (4/4/02; 02:45:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 72664)
YGM (msg#: 72661) Speaking of Profound Minds/Discourse....
Greetings YGM,

thank you for the link - it is brilliant. I suspect that the theories and practical applications of Tesla and others like Tom Bearden would be kept quiet (if possible) by the powers that be for reasons of weilding power over the masses and for military purposes rather than improving the conditions that everyone on this planet live by.

You are right in stating that this information would not be believed by the average person - how can it be when most academics are ignorant of it and denounce what they fail to comprehend.

Ah, the power of the internet...

Cheers.

Black Blade (4/4/02; 01:40:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 72663)
Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre as a Safe Hedge in Troubled Times
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29040017&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&

Snippit:

However, gold has to become more than just an icon of gold bugs, conspiracy theorists and short-term speculators. Instead it needs to broaden its appeal as an asset among mainstream investors anxious to protect themselves in an increasingly uncertain financial and political environment.

Black Blade: It looks like time for a mainstream ad campaign. So where's the WGC now that the POG has made some progress? Hmmm�

Black Blade (4/4/02; 01:31:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 72662)
Gold sets standard in Japan
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020404001562&query=gold

PRECIOUS METALS HOUSEHOLDS ARE STOCKING UP IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC TENSIONS:

Snippit:

Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal. "It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist At JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investment can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

But talk of a "March crisis" saw many Japanese shift their money from bank deposit accounts into gold and other assets. Gold sales were also spurred by the government's decision to lift the guarantee on bank time- deposits of more than Y10m from April 1. Although that deadline has now passed, the guarantee will be lifted from other types of bank accounts in April next year, leaving Japanese savers still fearful for their life savings. The Financial Services Agency's report on its special inspection of the banks' non-performing loans, due out this month, is likely to deepen concern about the banks.

Black Blade: Gold sales should continue to beat last years pace due to the next "April Fools Day Surprise" where deposit guarantees are rescinded for all savings deposits. Considering that there is a lot of cash sitting in insolvent Japanese banks that will seek safety before next April, we could see a lot of physical buying. Imports of Gold should increase steadily as April 2003 approaches.

YGM (4/4/02; 00:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 72661)
Speaking of Profound Minds/Discourse....
http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/index.html
My apologies for another off topic post but thru the reading of Tom Bearden's correspondence letters one 'May' see the reality of holding some physical Gold in an ever changing and uncertain world........YGM

Footnote: Toms site contains knowledge and information most of the populace will disbelieve or choose to ignore. But be forewarned he can and does have the proofs of his statements by and large. If you said you could send pictures thru the airwaves 60 years ago you would have had few followers. An open mind has always been the key to new knowledge! We all know knowledge is the greatest wealth and weapon for survival.

YGM (4/4/02; 00:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 72660)
JA
Your previous Post....
JA (04/03/02; 21:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 72657)
Call for return of posters of past years

FWIW... Your suggestion and thoughts are (I am sure) shared by many here. There have been so many profound & articulate posters pass thru these halls it is somewhat sad to not have the sharing of their thoughts. I have learned much here and shared a little, but what great discourse we've been privy to! If I may "I Second" your motion....YGM.

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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