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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/4/2001
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(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (07/04/01; 23:46:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 57500)
The Case Against Forward Sales
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/hathaway052700.html
The last information that I had was that ABX hade production forward sold to 2003. I have not heard of ABX unwinding any positions. Please post where they have unwound these forward sales. TIA

- Black Blade

Netking (07/04/01; 23:18:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 57499)
Horatio - Barrick
Horatio(57498)Are you sure that ONLY 20% of production is hedged or forward sold. Maybe Auspec, Black Blade etc can confirm but I had thought that about 40-45+% was the mark?

Horatio (07/04/01; 22:48:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 57498)
Barrick
Why do some people think Barrick starts to lose money when pog goes up? IMHO Theres some fuzzy logic to that.If they have the reserves and thier hedge is only 20% of production all they have to do is deliver the gold.If the hedge price is 345 as I have read here,its still well above thier cash cost price.Probably by 100.00/oz.Even above the 345.00 price they gain 100% with 80 % of thier production .20 % of production gets 345.00 'still well above cash costs by about 100.00/oz.Whats the problem?In addition between them and Homestake they will have about 750 million in cash,whats wrong with that?.Some gold bugs have demonized them for hedging,but thats why they have such a cash hoard!You cant have your gold and cash too when prices are low,they simply felt cash was more inportant than gold at that time and may now believe its time to roll into gold in a step up process.
Give them a break! Just because someone doesen't think the way you do doesen't mean they are demons.
Barrick chose to raise cash at the same time Homestake chose to increase reserves and have less cash.Marriage between them gives a better balance of cash and reserves to both of them.With Jack Thompsons nose for a good deal acquireing reserves and Barricks cash management ,its a good fit.

SteveH (07/04/01; 21:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 57497)
Repost
www.kitco.com
Date: Wed Jul 04 2001 12:38
kapex ( From my archives.... Notice the date, but more importantly, the content! Ask the cobber if he agrees )
ID#130128:
Copyright � 2000 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date:

1999-10-11 14:24:01

Subject:

Joel Skousen on Gold: Bankrupting the Mines

Comment:

Is the gold market being orchestrated by the central banks? Or are

they now dividing: Europe vs. the U.S.? Joek Skousen does not see

a division, but he is correct about mining companies. Those who

invested in mining shares rather than gold coins are now going to lose

their investments if they bought the wrong companies.

My view: the gold price move is y2k-related. The money of the

immediate future will be non-digital. This means gold. European

central banks are not willing to sell their gold for the promise of future

dollars, to the extent that they ever did. They have sold little gold

over the years. They have bought dollars. They are getting ready to

unload dollars. When they do, watch U.S. interest rates rise. Watch

import prices rise.

Inflation is not likely without digital money. It all rests on the

computers. I predict deflation.

This is from Joel Skousen's latest WORLD AFFAIRS BRIEF ( Oct.

8 ) .

* * * * * * * * * *

RESURRECTION TIME FOR GOLD--BUT MOSTLY FOR

INSIDERS After years of central bank gold sales, artificially driving

down the price of gold, the establisment has suddenly switched

strategies and is allowing the price to rise. This deserves some

analysis since none of this has happened by accident and is still the

subject of heavy manipulation. I will give a very brief analysis at this

time, and hope to have a more complete picture later on this year. I

am indebted to my good friend, Steve Tomczak for doing the

extensive research and analysis on this. The big players in this

manipulation of gold have been US and European central banks,

Russia, Middle Eastern Oil countries, the IMF, bullion

banks/brokers, and the big mining companies. It's much more

complex than I have room to explain, but here is a capsule version:

US and European central banks, in collusion with Russia ( for

unknown secret promises--probably future cash and loans to the

elite ) , began dumping gold on the market several years ago in order

to drive the price down. This, we now believe, was intended to

negatively impact the gold mining industry and put them in distress.

Geo-politically, it also destabilized several African nations who were

highly dependent upon gold production and sales in order to finance

internal military and economic stability. But unknown to the general

public, a huge market developed among insiders to "short" the gold

market and make millions of dollars as the price went down. Giant

hedge funds, all closely connected with the PTB, also got into gold

short contracts in order to profit from what they knew was a

guaranteed downward direction of gold prices. Because of the

phenomenol profits in gold short contracts, central banks and bullion

banks ( who broker and store the physical metal for producers )

began leasing out the physical gold to insiders, as well, who then

would sell at a markup, counting on their ability to buy back the

physical gold later, at cheaper prices, when demanded for

repayment. This only works as a profitable strategy as gold is going

down. If gold rises, they have to buy it back at a higher price, which

is disasterous financially. Gold market watchers began to observe

last year that the total amount of gold leases and short contracts ( a

difficult quantity to ascertain without insider connections ) actually

exceeded the total supply by many fold. So it became obvious that

whenever the price started to rise, those insiders shorting gold and

leasing gold were going to be unable to recover. When the price of

gold started to rise dramatically ( biggest one day rise in history )

following the announcement of European banks and IMF to stop

gold sales for the next five years, I knew that this was the death knell

for those insiders shorting gold. The central banks have also agreed

not to increase their gold lending arrangements and derivative

operations above current levels for the next five years. Never before

in history have the big boys been told what they were going to do in

advance. Their openly giving out the five year date guaranteed a bull

market in gold. It wasn't meant to benefit those who would now buy

gold, but rather to destroy those who had been induced to short the

market. Not only would the price of gold rise, but there wasn't

enough gold available at any price for them to pay off their contracts.

Steve and I went back and forth for days trying to figure out why the

establishment would let their buddies ( whoever they were, and who

had been encouraged to short the market ) get caught in a no win

situation. Steve may have found a major part of the answer in

analyzing WHO the actual players were who were shorting the gold

market. By and large, it was the big mining companies themselves,

coupled with hedge funds connected to mining interests. Apparently,

the big mines were induced by bullion bankers to enter into the

hedging game ( shorting the market, and selling future production

forward ) as a means of surviving the downward market in gold. Little

did the big mines know that they were being set up for bankrupcy by

these insider bullion banks/brokers when the price of gold would

finally rise. Since the number of short contracts outstrips even the

mine's production, there is no way the mines can pay back the gold

that shorted. Rather than be able to take advantage of the increasing

price to recover ( as the public thinks ) , the mines are now in BIG

trouble. Steve's analysis is that the PTB have set them up intentionally

so as to be able to buy them out and control the world's biggest gold

mines. If this is true, it is a very important prelude to depression and

war. When the insiders go out to control most of the world's gold,

you can bet that the inflation of paper currencies is not far off.

Peter Asher (07/04/01; 19:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 57496)
Latest from Gary North

> THE FED'S METHADONE STRATEGY
>
> Think of the Federal Reserve System as a senior
> producer in an international fiat money drug cartel. Think
> of Alan Greenspan as its godfather. He uses commercial
> banks as his pushers.
>
> When users build up tolerance to the existing supply
> of fiat money, the FED has to increase the dosage in order
> to maintain the economic boom. In this system, the economy
> is never allowed to "get clean." The addiction to fiat
> money is forever.
>
> But Greenspan is a kindly godfather. He means to
> produce no serious harm. He doesn't want to see America as
> a nation of helpless addicts to the really hard stuff. He
> wants the whole world to move from the heroin of fiat money
> to methadone. If we will just keep coming down to the
> banks for our regular supply of the drug, we will be able
> to postpone the horrors of going cold turkey. Economic
> "cold turkey" is a recession that is not overcome by a wave
> of fiat money. The Great Depression was cold turkey.
>
> The whole world today is addicted to fiat money and
> long-term debt. Long-term debt makes sense when the money
> supply is constantly being expanded. You can pay off your
> debts with depreciated money. But the debt system keeps
> the addicts coming back for more. The longer the addiction
> process continues, the more dependent every section of the
> economy becomes on a continuing supply of fiat money.
>
> Today's users are counting on the easy availability of
> the central bank-supplied methadone. The universal
> assumption of the cartel's directors is this: methadone
> does not produce the fearful effects of long-term
> resistance to the drug's stimulating effects. Addiction is
> a permanent condition, but it can be handled emotionally by
> the addicts.
>
> The problem is this: the addict has no incentive to
> get well by breaking his addiction. The central bank
> continually adds to the money supply, generation after
> generation. This makes the level of accumulated debt ever
> greater. The addicts keep building up their IOU's.
>
> The biggest addict today is the U.S. government. It
> has made promises to voters regarding Social Security and
> Medicare. These promises involve unfunded debts so huge
> that they cannot be paid off in terms of money with
> anything like today's purchasing power. To put it bluntly,
> the U.S. government is on methadone today, just like
> everyone else, but this methadone dependence must lead,
> statistically speaking, to the heroin habit. We can see it
> coming. But methadone-addicted users in Washington see
> nothing coming further out than the next Congressional
> election.
>
> I realize that my analogy may sound a bit nutty, but
> it is closer to the truth than most people think. I wrote
> the initial version of this essay in 1964, which was
> published as a booklet, "Inflation: The Economics of
> Addiction." Since that time, the dollar is down in its
> purchasing power by about 75%.
>
> There is an addiction effect with fiat money. The
> world found out in the 1930's what happens when the flow of
> fiat money ceases. Politicians are determined never to
> allow this to happen again.
>
> So far, the voting public agrees. The central banks
> of the world continue to keep the funds flowing. A
> national economy has its ups and downs, but it never falls
> into the disaster-level mode of 1932. This seems
> positive.
>
> But the relentless pressure of debt never decreases.
> The public, along with their governments, continue to make
> assumptions about the future that cannot possibly come true
> with today's money supply and price level. So, the central
> banks continue to increase the money supply, general prices
> never fall, and aging populations remain unconcerned with
> the statistical brick wall that faces all of us, in every
> industrial nation. Addicts ignore unpleasant reality.
>
>
> A WEAK STIMULANT
>
> The minimal interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve
> System has produced nothing of substance for the stock
> market. The hopes of the bulls have been thwarted by the
> continuing bad news coming from the real world of economic
> production, which continues to border on negative numbers.
>
> There was a warning in late May by a private firm,
> ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute), that by the
> criteria of the National Bureau of Economic Research, we
> may already be in a recession. Well, maybe. The NBER
> always announces these conditions retroactively. The NBER
> is a old-line, private, academic think tank that everyone
> agrees is the arbiter of what constitutes a U.S. recession.
> Why it has this supposed monopoly, no one seems to know.
> The NBER deals with reams of historical statistics, so it
> does not often make announcements regarding the present.
> So, we will have to wait and see, officially speaking. But
> ECRI was founded by Geoffrey Moore, who used to be a
> research director at NBER. So I take ECRI's comments
> seriously.
>
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's
> 500 index have bumped along this year well under the highs
> of 2000. Nothing that the FED does seems to take the Dow
> above the low 11,000's. Then it falls back. The NASDAQ
> remains stalled well under 50% of its high of 5040 in
> March, 2000.
>
> What's wrong with the stock market? Why don't the
> FED's actions produce a sustained recovery above the peak
> in 2000? Because the FED's policy of keeping short-term
> interest rates low by creating fiat money is at most a
> holding action. Cheap money at best keeps corporate
> borrowers able to sustain present projects, bringing them
> to completion. The sagging economy offers little hope for
> these borrowers to make above-average profits, or any
> profits at all. The FED is in the business today of
> creating an economic climate that avoids economic
> contractions. Greenspan doesn't care about the stock
> market except as a creator of confidence.
>
> The National Association of Purchasing Managers index
> is still under 45, although it showed signs of recovery in
> June. The good news regarding its increase from May's 42.1
> to 44.7. But it has been below 45 throughout 2001. I have
> cited the following statement in REMNANT REVIEW:
>
>
> The NAPM shows, since its inception in 1948,
> there is only one instance that four sub-45
> readings did not confirm a recession. That
> was in 1952, and even then, a brief bounce
> only delayed the recession till the following
> year. [James B. Stack, INVESTECH RESEARCH,
> April 13]
>
> The FED seems content with a soft-landing scenario --
> a recession where the economic growth rate just barely
> moves into negative figures. (Note: that's the way
> economic experts talk: "negative growth." A generation
> ago, this condition was called "contraction.")
>
> Greenspan is ready to flood the economy with fiat
> money in order to keep the economy from tanking. The
> present economic slowdown, which includes a recession in
> Japan, creates selling pressure in consumer goods markets.
> Under such competitive conditions, price inflation is
> checked. This gives the FED room to inflate the money
> supply without causing politically serious rising prices,
> at least for a time. But this recession-generated selling
> pressure also keeps profits low in the U.S. manufacturing
> sector. The economy remains stalled.
>
> When the FED pumps money into the economy, it distorts
> interest rates. That, of course, is the whole point of the
> FED's policy. It is trying to subsidize the completion of
> short-term projects, so that manufacturers will not have to
> lay off workers and sustain write-offs. But in subsidizing
> short-term projects, the FED is keeping the free market
> from scrapping wasteful projects that ought to be
> abandoned.
>
> The reason why recessions occur is that producers were
> previously lured into beginning uneconomic projects by the
> lure created by the FED's low interest rates, i.e.,
> subsidized short-term rates. Once producers are hooked on
> low rates, the FED continues to new pump money into the
> economy by way of the commercial banks. The addiction to
> fiat money continues.
>
>
> GREENSPAN DOESN'T REALLY CARE
>
> Greenspan has made it clear for 14 years that his
> major enemy is price inflation. Nevertheless, year after
> year, prices continue to rise. So does the money supply.
>
> What Greenspan frets about is a rate of price
> inflation high enough to call into question the reliability
> of the dollar in relation to the world's other currencies.
> He has been unwilling to inject sufficient reserves into
> the economy to create a rapid rise in the stock market as a
> prelude to an economic recovery in the boom category. He
> doesn't care if the stock market stagnates. He gives every
> impression of wanting it to stagnate. He knows that stock
> market valuations are historically high. They cannot pay
> off investors by means of economic growth and dividends.
> So, investors are naive. Greenspan knows this.
>
> The market rises only because more investors have been
> lured into stocks, not because advancing productivity will
> enable companies to repay investors when it is time for
> them to retire, sell equities, invest in bonds, and live on
> the income.
>
> Any reluctance on the part of investors to pour money
> into stock index funds will produce a fall in the indexes.
> New sheep are required for this market to stay high. It is
> an overvalued market. Greenspan even identified its
> source: "Irrational exuberance."
>
> This exuberance is the product of Greenspan's
> methadone economy, and also the one that preceded it under
> Paul Volcker's second phase (1982-87). Investors are not
> irrational in the short run, only in the long run. They
> refuse to acknowledge what is statistically inevitable for
> the government's retirement/medicare programs. They refuse
> to think long term. Thus, they compete with each other in
> bidding up the stock market to heights that are irrational,
� long term.

If this is a recession, it is the mildest one in
> recorded history: the softest landing ever. I live in a
> region where unemployment is below 3%: Northwest Arkansas,
> headquarters for Tyson's Foods and Wal-Mart. I was
> visiting friends last week in Harrisonburg, Virginia,
> another chicken-raising area. Unemployment there is about
> 2%. Both regions are experiencing rapid real estate
> development.
>
> I saw "Help Wanted" signs in fast food restaurants all
> across the Southeast on Highway 40. Where is the
> recession? Where is the fear that recessions generate?
> Where is the falling stock market that goes down and stays
> down? Nowhere to be seen.
>
> So, we have a race between Greenspan's methadone and
> the capital readjustment that half a decade of irrational
> exuberance has created. The optimists are saying that the
> U.S. recession, if any, is now over. A recovery is sure.
> But where is the stock market boom that pre-dates economic
> recoveries? Nowhere. Yet if we are in a recession today,
> or soon will be, where was the stock market's signal? It
> did not fall to levels associated with pre-recession
> levels, and it did not stay down when it fell.
>
> Historically, when the FED has cut rates six times,
> the market has risen -- the one exception being 1930. This
> recent series of cuts has taken place over a short time
> period: less than 6 months. This is the shortest time
> frame for six cuts in the 88-year history of the FED,
> according to chartist James Stack. But the cuts have been
> small.
>
> The U.S. economy is struggling alongside of a
> recession-plagued Japan and a rapidly slowing German
> economy. The world's largest economies seem to be
> operating together. The last time this happened was during
> the oil crisis in 1974.
>
> The FED is steadily cutting short-term rates, though
> in baby steps. What the FED is betting on is the consumer,
> whose debt level is higher than ever before. He will not
> stop spending, we are assured. He will dip into savings to
> keep the game going. His optimism is crucial to the
> continuation of the boom.
>
> This recession is missing the factor that has
> accompanied every previous recession: fear. Nobody is
> afraid of the possibility of recession: workers, investors,
> bankers, home builders. When people are not afraid of a
> looming slowdown, they do not cut back on spending. This
> has been the case so far in 2001. The consumer is not
> afraid.
>
> It is fear that persuades producers to cut back,
> tighten up, and stop expanding. Employers remove the "Help
> Wanted" signs. This has not happened in this recession.
> So, we are not yet into the recession. Some prefer to
> argue that it will not come, but it is clear that this
> slowdown has not been sufficient to change most people's
> spending habits.
>
> That's why I do not think we are in a recession. The
> FED's cuts are the sign that Greenspan wants to avoid
> recession without producing additional irrational
> exuberance. But what this exuberance is the product of
> confidence that recessions do not hurt. They do not
> produce fear.
>
> We are asked to believe that a recession will produce
> an unemployment rate of less than 5% -- what previous
> economic analysts have regarded as boom times. But in the
> early phase of a recession, low unemployment is common.
> That is why the ECRI says that we have entered a recession.
> If we have, we are nowhere near coming out of it. Times
> are too good.
>
> If Greenspan's strategy works, and these rate cuts do
> prove sufficient to sustain American consumer spending,
> then exuberance will continue to dominate the decisions of
> entrepreneurs. The consumers' debt-based bidding process
> will drive real estate prices even higher. Projects will
> not be cancelled.
>
> The FED wants to avoid irrational exuberance in the
> stock market. That's why the cuts have been minimal,
> though cumulative. But they reinforce the public's
> assumption that the economy is too big to fail. When men
> do not see danger in making conventional investments, they
> will pour ever-more money into markets that, apart from
> fiat money, would fall sharply.
>
> The stock market has not forecasted either boom or
> bust. It has discounted the future, and the message is
> "nothing spectacular." This is business as usual.
>
> My assumption is that business is never usual after a
> decade od boom times. There is no "new economy." There is
> only the old economy, which asks, "What have you done for
> me lately?" The FED's answer? "Pump in money." Take a
> look:
>
>
> http://www.stls.frb.org/images/publications/usfd/page8.gif
>
> "No boom, no bust": this seems to be Greenspan's goal.
> But a world of perpetual, risk-free boom produces
> irrational exuberance and ever-larger levels of debt. It
> also creates a sense of obligation for the FED to continue
> to expand the money supply.
>

Peter Asher (07/04/01; 19:34:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57495)
@ Randy: Re
<<<However, paying with money is not barter because money is not a physical thing.>>>>>

Yes and no! Paying with money is one side of a barter transaction, buying with money is the other. Currency is the recording device that joins the two sides in an equilibrium that derives from the composite buy and sell barter intentions of the participating individuals.

Warren (07/04/01; 19:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 57494)
GOLD- silver with some odds and ends.
Who has to be persuaded this happings,
The countries of the world has reached the point where they cannot even change money any longer.This would participate a cause for a worldwide depression the day after. We are even now printing " unbacked paper" and the elite are trying to hold together Countries that are on the verge of falling off the bridge. Most people in the world does not even have enough
"worthless paper" to meet a very low living standard which should be called and is, free money.

Suppose some country went back to a gold or silver standard, at 3000$. gold and 300$.Silver their money would become the money of all monies. Unfortunely not all people would hold such money. Prices of everything from salt to steaks would fall so low that a country would die from lack of purchers.

Gold and silver holders would become very wealthy, and even then their wealth would buy them nothing for lack of credit to produce the products and services they needed.

Today,JULY 4th is celebrated as a day of freedom. Today we did not celebrate a day of freedom, Instead celebrated that we had lived to see another 4th. Had we been free we would not be on this forum discussing "The gold standard".

This will probably get me the the reward of the "cracy award" of the forum. Facts must be looked at in the light of what they are-Not the way we want them to be.

We as a nation has dictated the terms of war and peace,rulers, president to mayors. WE are no longer the nation with the big stick and soft speech. The nations are angry at us-Very angry, and we find ourselves in a place of a false prosperity and the inability to any longer speak and the nations tremble.

One day soon all oil faucets will be turned off and we will get the last of the drainage,Labor in other countries will exceed our hourly wage. No longer will we enjoy our happy gaggets made with the blood and sweat from poorer people living in shacks and cardboard boxes. The internet has changed all that and they are learning from us fast.

Then, Like any poor country we will exchange our goodies for firewood to warm ourselves.

When you lay a foundation line opon line. we will Then be only USA-CANADA-MEXICO and some Islands. We all will become islands with little military power, the greatest exchange of wealth has passed and we are awaiting
who has it.
We will cease to be the biggest buyers of goods from the world. WE will be replaced buy billons of chinase buyers of the worlds poducts.

GOLD and SILVER will not, and can not be instuted ever for the John Does and Smiths.

Read the last days of the USA; In Revelation, 13:11 read the future of america. How God raised him from the ground and its end.

After that I see hard work and small wages thereafter.

We will see.

Netking (07/04/01; 18:54:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 57493)
China Poses No Threat in Foreseeable Future, Kissinger Says
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200107/05/eng20010705_74199.html
And our next enemy is. . . NOT China, says Henry.

Snippit:
China Poses No Threat in Foreseeable Future, Kissinger Says
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that China poses no threat to the United States in the foreseeable future and it would be wrong for Washington to openly advocate a confrontational strategy towards the country.

Kissinger, in a PBS interview Monday on his latest book "Does America Need a Foreign Policy," said that he is opposed to placing China into the niche of former Soviet Union and launching another crusade against it as some of America's conservative politicians suggested in recent days. "To select China in advance as our principle enemy and slide it into the position vacated by the Soviet Union, I think would have the paradoxical effect of isolating us in Asia; nobody will join us," he said.

Kissinger stressed that China would not have the means to become an aggressor in the next 15 to 20 years. "Look at the military budget. The Chinese military budget is announced, it's 12 billion dollars a year in 1999... (but) Ours is 350 billion dollars. The Japanese is 49 billion dollars," Kissinger noted.

"So they are not in any position to threaten to push us out of the Western Pacific, as some people claim. I also don't think that 's their intention," he added.

Journeyman (07/04/01; 18:46:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 57492)
Historical evidence of ???? @Randy, ALL

According to National Geographic Explorer, now on CNBC, the merchants and residents of Charleston, SC. offered a bounty during the "Civil War" of $50,000 for any Union ship blockading the harbor. It was this bounty that helped motivate the launching of the Hunley.

Again, according to the program, that $50,000 would amount to $1 million today.

So, why did I post this on a gold forum??

Regards,
Journeyman

CoBra(too) (07/04/01; 18:29:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 57491)
@ Megatron
... and as I fear you're right - I still think some will hold tight - id est Goldcorp's Bob Mc'Ewen, Meridian, not too sure about Agnico ... raises some positive Qu's about juniors with goodies? - ... Maybe ask - PDG ... and see...
SA: GOLD, HMGCY ... and fringe RANGY, DROOY
OZ: Down Under - Boom -(erang)!

- Better get physical first of all - as all above haven't added an ounce to replace the suction of production!

For years - anyway - cheers for the independents - cb2

megatron (07/04/01; 18:08:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 57490)
Whole new ballgame/CoBra
This merger has thrown things into a whole new arena concerning 'unhedged' gold miners. Many companies people bought for their 'upside' could now be snapped up in their 'downside' BECAUSE they are unhedged. With a crappy 30% premium many will get burned when the management 'turns' on them. Agnico, GoldCorp, GoldFields, watch em' go. A miner with big reserves, no debt, and most importantly, NO MINE, could end up being the deal of the century in a run-up, as these brutes will need INSTANT gratification and will overlook these types while trying to grab aforementioned type companies who are pulling lots of oz's NOW.

CoBra(too) (07/04/01; 17:45:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 57489)
ABX/HM
@ Stranger - Hi there old friend - and you may be right on your math, which for me is beside the point; And yes I've sold HM at over 8 and I didn't even have to think about it hard.

Though, that's not quite true, since I've bought this co for a l.t. core gold position ... eventually - and no, I didn't know about the 2/moz hedge - and so I'm asking "me", what could have persuaded-(swayed) August v. Fink's 13% and his group, allegedly holding 30% plus for years at prices above 9$ on average? - and please don't come back and tell me what a great co ABX is - which BTW may be in terms of a wholly owned gold hedge fund by the BB's - may be more than true - and I ask you, what's going to happen to NEM - the last unhedged Mohican (just barely standing in view of a billion bucks hocked-), though officially unhedged? - only pledged ...

The game plan is there for all to see? Or do you feel, I'm totally off track? ... It's not the way I feel ...

...though don't let my words bother you - brother - enjoy as much independence as you can fill in the Hoi Polloi
of Salt Lake City - Enjoy - cb2

Randy (@ The Tower) (07/04/01; 17:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 57488)
Netking, rest assured...
This is the final series in the UK gold action program.

Randy (@ The Tower) (7/4/01; 17:19:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 57487)
Also to Journeyman on transactional gold
Gold for goods and services...an endearing practice. I'm all for it. It's like having your neighbors over to help build a patio, paying them off with a grand BBQ and plenty of beer.

Barter. Any way you slice it.

However, paying with money is not barter because money is not a physical thing. So, what is it?

Speaking of BBQ's, I've got a BBQ to attend. I'll pick up this presentation later. Everyone, feel free to fill any subsequent silence with your own good thinking...the most effective teacher of all.

Netking (7/4/01; 17:18:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 57486)
Bank Of England - Official auction announcement
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/auctnt43.pdf
The 2nd in THIS SERIES of six planned auctions.

R Powell (7/4/01; 17:08:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 57485)
Gold Standard
I'll guess 60-40 in favor of a return.
It will be precipitated as the justification to print new currency (perhaps just the old with a new color).
This will be necessary as the old currency dies from devaluation (price inflation) enhanced with the return of bigfloat. The old currency will die from too much of exactly that which gave it birth, debt, too much debt- owed to too many- to be repaid.
However, keep some of the old currency (in good condition) as these old bills will be valuable as collectors items in your grandchildrens lifetime.
Happy 4th!
Rich

Netking (7/4/01; 17:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 57484)
PM backed currencey, but wait there's more . . . (Ted W)
The Gold standard IS already here, in one form or another friends. There is a Company(not one of the those referred to by J'Man in 57479 I believe)but they say in part:
------------------------------------------------------------
"Just as the express package industry finally brought competition to the US Postal Service and the heavily subsidized government agency responded and improved noticeably -(their name withheld as I'm not promoting)brings competition to America's most basic monetary unit, its currency"

American " " Dollars - America's only gold & silver backed Currency - that provides you with a physical and legal Warehouse Receipt which is your title of ownership to pure .9999 fine gold and .999 fine silver. Redeemable in pure gold and silver at over 800 Redemption Centers nationally and internationally - this currency will not be devalued in any financial crisis.

" 's" solution to our nation's manipulated government currency is simple: Stop using "their" money. Start using The Liberty Dollar and return America to value - one dollar at a time."
-----------------------------------------------------------
So Ted, you see it's already here in part, be it in a Ad-hoc, defacto form. As this concept appears to be growing quickly (and this while things are "stable")for the promoter over the last several years, why not on an even bigger scale? Why not somebody with lots of capital taking it far & wider. Could not CPM's of this land be involved in the future etc. Never say never my friend to the gold standard - regards Murray. . .

turkey hunter (7/4/01; 16:57:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 57483)
USA returning to a gold standard 60%--40% it will happen
I think a return to some type of gold standard will come into play. Reason #1 There is much economic chaos around the world since the US went bankrupt in "71" inflation has went out of site. The nations of the world can see this after 30 some years of experience. #2 The PTB can have rule over the people. (I'm refering to the "Money Masters" video tape). They cautioned against a return to a gold standard. Gold is the money of kings. I think this is what they tried to do in the late 1800's. I'm refering to the "Cross of Gold" speech by William Jennings Bryan in 1900. The PTB demonetized silver in the late 1800's and took out the money of the people, so we had a land that could produce milk and honey but the farmers and common people went hungry. Maybe this is why Trailguide says that silver will be worth nothing in the days ahead. #3 The Jamacian Accords Trail Guide talked about in the 70's when the nations decided that gold will one day be used again. 1986 the USA made it legal to own gold again. All this has some purpose I do believe.

Weigh yourself down with gold that way the guberment can't pull the rug out from under you as easy. Make em work for it!!

Hapyp 4th to all Americans.

Randy (@ The Tower) (7/4/01; 16:53:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 57482)
To Journeyman on msg #57476
You said to me, ---"Yur absolutely right! History proves almost ANYTHING can and has been used for money. Wampum, cigarettes - - - paper IOUs, etc."----

Ahhhhh... my friend, I can't be "right", because that is not what I was saying.

Now, let's take this slow and careful for the benefit of anyone attempting to peer into the depths of this haze.

To be sure, I am trying to induce people into deeper thought on this subject of money that most people give nary a thought to -- other than the earning and spending of it.

I am asking them to ponder deeply for the truth of the matter, for the very essence of this item... "What is MONEY?"

As I see it, in the opening line you have volunteered another matter entirely. However, I do believe it will be quite useful to this effort, and for that I am very thankful, as always, for your input.

Any careful thinker will in time come to recognize the fundamental flaw in your presentation. History has NOT shown that anything can be money. Rather, (and this is an important distinction) history has merely shown us that many different items have been used as (or in conjunction with) the ACCOUNTING SYSTEM for money.

But the underlying issue remains: What IS money? Successfully unlock this mystery, and the gates to a higher existence on earth will be thrown open for you.

The Stranger (7/4/01; 16:52:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 57481)
Apparently, It Doesn't Take a Rocket Scientist....
...to understand the Barrick/Homestake deal. With due respect to Professor Von Braun, Homestake shareholders clearly come out on top on this one. Homestake was a favorite among g'bugs mostly because of her ostensible no-hedging policy. Yet, when the merger was announced, Homestake simultaneously 'fessed up to the little business of a 2-million-ounce hedge position of her own, which for all their crocadile tears, stockholders appear to have known nothing about.

Furthermore, in bemoaning the loss of an independant Homestake, the good professor neglects to recognize the sad fact that the 125-year-old company's asset base has been, and is, in a multi-year decline. Five of her mines were, in fact, scheduled for closure just this year, and that includes the namesake Homestake mine in South Dakota.

But, if your a Homestake shareholder, and you still can't face having this sudden profit foisted upon your portfolio, all may not be lost. The deal is still subject to the prior approval of Homestake's stockholders. Very simply put,if they don't like it, it won't get done.

Will they approve? Well, consider this: In the week since the merger was announced, the HUI AMEX Gold Bugs index has fallen 3.3%. Barrick's stock is down by 9.6%. Yet Homestake has risen 13.8%. So, what do you think?

So, I'm afraid Brent Cook's take on all this (see Auspec, below) comes a mite closer to the reality of the situation than does the professor's. Still, I think even Cook stumbles when he gets to the math. Homestake has 20 million ounces, or so, in proven and probable reserves. Given the original terms of the deal(and the limitations of my hand-held calculator), that means Barrick was offering terms worth about $114/oz,, not $152. Even at that, however, we are talking shares of stock here, not cash on the barrelhead. By favorable comparison, Barrick's own reserves were valued at $120/oz. when the deal was announced.

All in all, I don't see what all the sturm und drang is about. Barrick shareholders are getting the increase in their company's leverage to a rising gold market through a reduction in the proportion of annual production which is hedged. Homestake's shareholders, meanwhile, are getting a sudden boost in the value of their stock which exceeds the return on most gold investments in any single year out of the last I-don't-know-how-many.

I'll take it!

Sierra Madre (7/4/01; 16:42:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 57480)
(No Subject)
The next ten years, for the USA - as I (dimly)see it:

1. Somewhere along the way, the USD(ollar) will cease to be the Reserve Currency of the world.
2. Gold will be used again, for international settlements of deficits and surpluses in trade.
3. Its price, expressed in USD will be in the thousands of dollars.
4. All countries in the world will "revalue" gold or devalue their currencies - however you wish to express it. Some will devalue more than others, after "trade wars" determine more realistic economic relationships between countries. (The question whether the OPEC countries require US goods, more than the US requires OPEC oil, would determine the appropriate relative values of the OPEC currencies vis a vis the Dollar. Trade figures must balance out, with only slight deviations. Oil cannot be paid for in gold; only the small net difference, can flow in either direction)
5. The US will not be able to run constant trade deficits.
6. There will be a tremendous monetary inflation in the US (already in progress) where the pressure of money creation does not inflate stock prices or bond prices, but inflates the prices of the things that people have to buy in order to live.
7. As a consequence of point 6: one, two or three (or more, eventually) zeros may be dropped from prices, as "new" units are introduced: the "strong Dollar", the "new Dollar", "the America" etc.
8. As gold is used once again, for international settlements, its purchasing power will rise very greatly - over and above the Dollar price increase in the price of the ounce, attributable to inflation.
9. The standard of living in the US will drop very sharply. A sign: you will see people setting up open air stalls everywhere, to sell all sorts of things, in order to feed themselves.
10 The highly regulated life in the US, will be a thing of the past. ALL public administrative bodies will have insufficient funds to carry on their functions. The bodies that maintain the highly orderly life to which Americans have been accustomed, will be powerless, since they will not have the budgets necessary to carry on their work. Disorder will be prevalent. There will be insufficient funds to maintain operations as they are at present, at municipal, county, state and federal levels
11 There will be very difficult times; riots will have to be put down by military force; the leaders of riots will be "disappeared" and interned in camps: gulags.
12 Forget about calling "911" - there won't be anyone to answer, and no one to send, if they do answer. And if they do show up - it will be four hours later.
13 There will be political upheaval, strikes will be the order of the day.
14 The US will have to abandon the role of "policeman of the world". Thus there will be a shake-up in international relations - a more equitable distribution of power.
15 Protectionism will be the policy. A rebuilding of industries sent abroad, based on a much lower working wage.
16 Squalid housing will begin to surround the cities, populated by a working class that cannot afford either a vehicle or the fuel, to live further away.

But...enough!
Do you still look forward to a fall in the Dollar?
Sierra.

Journeyman (7/4/01; 16:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 57479)
An optimistic note for all you gold-standard pessimists @tedw, ALL

For those of you pessimistic about some GOVERNMENT or CENTRAL BANK reinstituting a gold standard, I have good news and good news.

The good news is, as far as a government or central bank instituting a gold standard, you're almost certainly correct.

The other good news is that transactional gold has already been instituted on at least two internet sites. It is possible, right now, for you to keep your excess buying power in gold and a very liquid form and to transact in gold.

That's right now that you can do that.

Regards,
Journeyman

Journeyman (7/4/01; 16:30:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 57478)
Anything can be used as money . . . addendum @Randy, ALL

And using anything other than gold and/or silver as money doesn't just hurt the "little guy" - - - it's far more devastating to everyone in the whole affected culture than anything else could be, except, possibly, a nuclear strike or massive meteor hits.

Regards,
Journeyman

tedw (7/4/01; 16:22:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 57477)
GOLD STANDARD
http://www.usagold.com

THOSE STATING THERE IS A 100 TO 1 CHANCE OF RETUNING TO THE GOLD STANDARD ARE WILDLY OPTIMISTIC.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE OF RETURNING TO THE GOLD STANDARD. CONGRESS, THE FEDERAL RESERVE, ALL BIG GOVERNMENT ADVOCATES,LEFTISTS,SOCIALISTS,DEMOCRATS AND THE CENTRAL BANK POWERS OF THE WORLD ARE UNALTERABLY OPPOSSED TO THE IDEA. THERE WILL BE NO RETURN TO THE GOLD STANDARD.

THE GOLD STANDARD IS ONE OF THOSE RIGHTS IN THE CONSTITUTION THAT WE HAVE LOST FOREVER.

A MORE RELEVANT QUESTION WOULD BE:

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF GOLD BEING CONFISCATED?

Journeyman (7/4/01; 16:15:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 57476)
Anything can be used as money . . . @Randy, ALL

Hi Sir Randy!

Yur absolutely right! History proves almost ANYTHING can and has been used for money. Wampum, cigarettes - - - paper IOUs, etc.

The problem is that almost invariably when something other than gold and/or silver are used, very bad things happen, things much much worse than the worst that has ever happened when gold was THE money.

And usually the "little guys" are the ones hurt the most, far too often costing lives in various ways, while the prepetrators enrich themselves at everyone elses' expense.

And as beesting via Ron Paul pointed out, the use of paper money is what have made the majority of the 20th Century's wars possible, and certainly as violent as they were.

Regards,
Journeyman

By the way, is beesting still with us??

Randy (@ The Tower) (7/4/01; 15:32:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 57475)
A note for KarenSue (07/03/01; msg#: 57393)
You wrote:

"Gold is durable. Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not money. Who changed the definition of money?"

Through slight alteration, let me put this in a form that I could agree to say.

'Gold is durable. Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not WEALTH. Who formed your definition of money?'

Your thoughts???

Randy (@ The Tower) (7/4/01; 15:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 57474)
An initial reply to RossL (07/03/01; msg#: 57386)
First, and most importantly, you said:
-----"We still have a fundamental difference that you or TG will not acknowledge. You continue to refuse this point and it is causing a large difficulty among the contributors to this forum. Please address or acknowledge this difference or the silence will split us all."------

What is the fundamental difference to which you refer? I can't address it if I don't know what it is that you perceive as a difference.

On another point, I've seen it mentioned a time or two that some posters are disgruntled during times that I "fall silent", or they perceive that as a hole in my position.

Frankly, I have found that people need silence in order to do their OWN thinking. This is the only way many people will ever fully accept one position over another -- by their own grasp. Clearly, the more I try to "TELL" you outright, the more you seemingly reject. But,(!) ...have I gotten you to THINK at all? That is my goal. And as time unfolds, I put my money where my thoughts are. Gold!

Speaking of "money", one month ago I planted the seeds of this presentation with the question, "What is SOUND money?" Now, it is more clear than ever that the appropriate starting question should have been "What is MONEY?"

Ross, you said to me in your post, ---"Randy, of course, you are defining what we call paper money, which is currency. This is not defining gold money, the real money."-----

I ask you, Ross, can you be so sure, deep within your own mind, that mankind's concept of "money" is what you want it to be? I know what gold is. Gold is gold. We can hold it in our hands. However, when a beggar asks you for money, what is it that you put into his hands? Is it "money" that now rests in his dirty palm, or it it just the official representation of "money"? He asked for money, and you gave him something. So, as you look into his occupied hand before he plunges it all into his pocket, what are you seeing there? Money? Or merely a representation of money? Or is it gold? Or is it a representation of gold? What is this thing called "money" that everyone works so diligently for in their everyday lives?

This very important question is open to all.

CoBra(too) (7/4/01; 14:35:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 57473)
Re: MK's Goldstandard Qu.!
As I've already confessed to banality (in my post)- what in all probability my words didn't profess - and Gandalf hit the nail square - the Hobbits already got one! Or would we all buy physical, if we we didn't believe gold to return to the objective of true measurement of value(and values) instead of the relativity of floating measures of proclivity of the fiat paper - to oblivion.

Give me a free market of physical gold - it won't have to be measured in (any)currency - as it will find its natural equilibrium, or its own bouyancy against all goods and services, without the distraction of paper (derivative)
action as a fake proxy for pricing mechanism, a schiism, which again,to the disdain of all producers of real goods has them 'em in the woods.

... 't may be wishful thinking, though that may be the gold standard I'd love to accept, you bet! ... In other words - as a gold standard in todays monetary system seems impossible, even at FOA's 30.000$/oz it won't ever be convertible again - let gold be again the arbitrator of value and reality in the plight of humanity to go back to the natural rule of supply/demand at hand.

... or would you rather, or better chose to participate
in the overblown (bubble) derivative position of JPM/Chase-
in waiting of the malaise to blow to da moon, soon?

... ramblings of a leeetle frustrated -cb2

auspec (7/4/01; 14:34:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 57472)
Netking
......and few will give a crispy rat's arse.
Regards

Netking (7/4/01; 14:22:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 57471)
Gold/Silver standard - Why the Mexicans want a silver currency. . . .
http://itn.co.uk/news/20010704/world/08rats.shtml
Snippit:
"Grinding poverty is driving the people of the northern Mexico to eat rats. And the problem has become so widespread that there are now fears that the rodents may become extinct in the region. . ."
----------------------------------------------------------
God forbid this predicament would ever befall the USA or anything close to it, but it shows why Mexico bravely even now considers a silver backed currency for the sake of it's people. . .

Netking (7/4/01; 13:48:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 57470)
Journeyman / BullDroy
Journeyman(57456)Re:"followup question . . . "
-----------------------------------------------------------
Netking> Why?. . . Because of "CONFIDENCE" Sir Journeyman. The people, any people, want to know that when they exchange their human capital from their endeavours for a medium of exchange that it is/will be worth what their capital says it was at the time of the transaction or endeavour.

It's not enough to know that they(you or me) will accept the fiat, will everbody else accept it to? Therein the flow chart points back to . . . "CONFIDENCE" regards Murray
-----------------------------------------------------------
BullDrooy(57468)= N/A as no nukes will fly(yet IMO),war (despite posturings to the contrary)would be strictly regional, civil, conventional, internal. . . the same old, same old. This is the day of the NWO!(new world order)

IronHead (7/4/01; 13:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 57469)
Gold Standard and Anomalous Lessons From History
What are the chances of going back to a gold standard?

Well, it's been about 68 years since we truly were on a gold standard. During the course of time, since that time, many events of far greater unimaginable consequence have taken place. In recalling each of the following, ask what the probability of the occurance would have been, if asked five years prior, by the people effected.

An invasion of all European countries by one militaristic regime, led by one psychopathic dictator; after only 20 years since the "War To End All Wars."

A simultaneous war occuring in an opposite region of the world, sparked by the baiting of a foreign country into attacking a "sleeping giant."

The fision of the atom, resulting in horrific energy capability to annihilate all forms of life - and resulting in the beginning of an era of MAD. (Which we still live in today)

Another "undeclared" war in South East Asia, which commenced within ten years of an equally undeclared war in South East Asia. Lasting over ten years and destroying countless lives and resources.

A president of the U.S. utilizing the White House as his private brothel and fundraising resource.

A U.S. trade deficit of 400 billion annually, along with printing over 50% of the world's reserve assets, while productivity has declined to the lowest level since WW II. (per Dr. Richebacher)

Ok, enough of the unbelievable. What would precipitate the return to a gold standard? History repeating itself once again. 68 years vs. 5000 years.

Oh, 100% sure we'll be back there someday. Gold will be the only wealth, as it's always beeen. 50-50 within the next 5 years however.

Salutations,
IronHead

BullDrooy (7/4/01; 12:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 57468)
'Nother Question...
Most of us see the Middle East sliding into a state of regional war. My own gut hunch, nukes will fly, especially if Saddam & Syria get a bad case of the crazies and start launching chemical or biological Scuds.

If this proves true, what do the prognosticators on this board see as likely impact on the following prices and indexes in the first 30 days following "the morning after," assuming no nukes land in North America.

All responses welcome.

Please guesstimate with numbers.

Dow Jones:

Duck:

POO:

POG:

Flatlander (7/4/01; 12:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 57467)
Gold Standard Question
OK OK....I will come out into the sunlight long enough to state my guess on the probability of a gold standard within the next five years in the USA. The odds have to be 100 to 1 against this.
A gold standard is too restrictive to the government. They have had a lot of freedom to inflate the fiat whenever they felt "we needed it". They will not give up that freedom easily.

Happy Fourth of July to all..

Now back into the shadows...

BullDrooy (7/4/01; 12:40:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 57466)
Gold Standard Question
100-1 Against.

Gold IS real money.

The bankers are pushing us toward a cashless society. They already want to do away with checks. They would be defeating their own purposes to go back to hard assets.

Eventually (sooner rather than later) we're headed toward the totally cashless "Mark of the Beast" system.

But gold will have real value until and unless its ownership is banned. (Then it goes underground.)

Blessings & Happy 4th!

BD

auspec (7/4/01; 12:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 57465)
Barrick's Buy
Midas Snippet
The following comes out of a report called "The Friday Sheet" by Brent Cook who is a resource stock analyst/geologist {if my read is right on his identity}:

"The 'strategic' merger of Barrick and Homestake must be based on Barrick's belief that gold prices are headed higher, otherwise the deal appears to make no economic sense {barring hedge book concerns}. Gold how much higher?"
"Barrick paid ~$152/oz for Homestake's ~21mil oz in reserves. Assuming Homestake's total cash production costs of $174 over the entire 21 mil oz {highly unlikely}, in rough terms that means ABX needs to see a minimum of $326 gold to just break even on this purchase."
The resulting new Barrick is a formidable company in a rising gold market. They become the world's second largest international gold producer with an estimated pro-forma production of ~6mil oz/yr, 18mil sold forward at an average of $345/oz and a stated reserve base of 79mil oz. The deal was described as a merging of the operational, financial and human resources of the two. Interestingly, no mention is made where the earnings to cover the US$2.3bil deal will come from."
"The question now becomes, how do you replace the core deposits, the deposits that allow these companies to survive and boast of their low cash costs to mutual fund managers? Assuming Pierre Lassonde's {President Franco-Nevada} assessments of the gold industry premiums is accurate, a major producer can either: 1}cough up a substantial premium {followed by a subsequent write off somewhere down the road} or 2}discover one of these gare deposits."
This is really the subtext to today's sheet: mergers and acquisitions will not supply or replace the core deposits needed for the major gold producers to survive and maintain current production levels. The majors are becoming increasingly desperate for low cost ounces."END

Comment: According to this commentary Barrick pays $2.3bil for annual earnings of $25mil approx. Quite a deal there boys. Few of us would be willing to overlook the hedgebook rationale for this deal, but it is interesting nonetheless. It must be the hedgebook or much higher POG expected or this deal is just foolishness.

Turnaround (7/4/01; 12:28:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 57464)
That Beautiful Dream
megatron (07/04/01; 10:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 57454)
"Happy July 4th
To all the American posters and USAgold. Remember,

'America is a concept, not just a place'.

Somewhere, there are people like the founding fathers, we just havn't found us yet."

I thought at first this was a typo.

Back to my fence now.

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 12:24:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 57463)
Gandalf
already on a GOLD STANDARD !!

My point: exactly!

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 12:22:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 57462)
Whoops, More coffee please!
That sould read 'For a gold standard 'to' operate in ----

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 12:20:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57461)
I don' wan' no steenk'n Gold Standard
@ Journeyman, ORO, TG & All
For gold to be optimal as a storage of value, the rate of exchange between it and the local currency must remain stable. As a gold standard cannot operate in an advanced, division of labor, inventory and long distance shipping economy, the currency 'value' of gold, must be artificially propped up. Also, as the relationship of currency units to products of labor is determined by "The Power to Command Price" by marketing position or scarcity/abundance factors, price 'flations will always occur. Therefore gold as a Currency Standard, cannot remain stable in purchasing unit terms.

For gold to function as we here wish it to, it must exist free of any currency link and interact with purchasing units directly. IMO of course, this is not yet empirical data but I'm working on it J

Gandalf the White (7/4/01; 12:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 57460)
OK -- Here is my response !
MK ask -- "What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in
the next five years?"
===
NEVER happen, because it would be against the "game rules"!
===
HOWEVER, Both The Wiz and the Hobbits are already on a GOLD STANDARD !!
<;-)

USAGOLD (7/4/01; 12:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 57459)
The Question before the Table Round: Will you weigh in on the issue?
For those wondering what precipitated the "Update" below, here's the question that was posed last night ----

I would like to ask a question of all the members of this esteemed table:

What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in
the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.

Oh, and one more:

What would precipitate it?

After we've kicked that one for awhile, I'll have a follow up for you.

USAGOLD (7/4/01; 12:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 57458)
Return to Gold Standard Update.

Megatron. . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Mountain Gold. . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Netking . . . . . . .. 60-40 probability againt

Auspec . . . . . . . . 85-15 probability against

Stradmaster. . . . . . 100-1 probablility against (in the key of E)

Black Blade. . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Goldfly. . . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against (any new songs lately??)

Warren. . . . . . . . .90-10 probability against

Ross L. . . . . . . . .A certainty. It will happen.

Journeyman. . . . . . .Doesn't know.

Mythical. . . . . . . .95-5 probability against

Shifty. . . . . . . . .50-50 (firmly tacked to the fence)

Turbo. . . . . . . . . 100-1 probability against

Peter Asher. . . . . . 100-1 (make that "never")

Turnaround. . . . . . .50-50 (sitting next to Shifty)

Van Rip . . . . . . . .80-20 probability against

j'Bear. . . . . . . . .100-1 probability against (or "infinity" whichever comes first.)

ge. . . . . . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Cobra(too). . . . . . . 100-1 probability against (or nil, or hide the women and children the finance ministers and central bankers are meeting.)

I hope I didn't miss anyone. If I did let me know and we'll get it fixed or the next update.

This is getting interesting. I think Strad said it best:

"What's the worst that can happen? I might be wrong, and that's certainly happened before. Since it is an open ended precdiction, I can't be proven wrong unless it actually happens. If it doesn't - it may yet in the future. But,
as long as it doesn't, I'm right."

Where are all the lurkers -- all those goldmeisters who have been looking for an excuse to finally use that posting code.
You can't get hurt on this one.

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 11:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 57457)
tedw msg#: 57449)

Just got up as far as your post. We should campaign to have April 15th declared a holiday named 'National Dependence Day'.

Journeyman (07/04/01; 11:16:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 57456)
A followup question @USAGOLD, ALL

Hi ALL!

M.K. asked what we-all thought the odds of the U.S. returning to a gold-standard (dollar defined, as per the U.S. constitution, as a specific mass (weight) of gold).

The consensus seems to be very long odds.

But a follow-up question, "Would you personally _prefer_ a gold standard?"

If you decide to answer, what's your main reason(s) pro or con?

Regards,
Journeyman

Old Yeller (07/04/01; 10:49:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 57455)
O'Neill spanks the Eurocrats
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20010703-2392223.htm

European authorities flexing their muscles to the detriment of US financial interests?The horror!Far be it for the US to act in a manner that undermines foreigners economic interests.Can I ask a question,Mr. O'Neill; can you give us an honest answer to GATA's assertions on US involvement in managing the gold price?There are 5000 "retrenched" miners in South Africa who would probably like to know as well.

Is there perhaps a little irony in these statements on the issue from Mr. O'Neill:

"The European regulatory process is in my judgement flawed in the sense that the people making the judgements are not elected by anyone and their judgements are not subject to a judicial review or any kind of relief."

"What the EU is doing is a far reach from looking at questions that are directly at interest to the EU and reaching into the affairs of other countries."

It seems to me that there is another regulatory body that would fit into these quotes quite well;the Federal Reserve.

megatron (07/04/01; 10:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 57454)
Happy July 4th
To all the American posters and USAgold. Remember,

'America is a concept, not just a place'.

Somewhere, there are people like the founding fathers, we just havn't found us yet.

CoBra(too) (07/04/01; 10:38:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 57453)
A New Gold Standard?

Since the demise of Bretton Woods on Aug. 15, 1971 no paper currency was linked to gold -the first time ever in history. An experience, while young in terms of the history of money, in the classical sense, has since brought on more financial, economic and currency crises, as at any time before.
As gold is a political metal, or better money, with a historical function of disciplining excess monetary creation and also was observed as the main barometer for the inherent health of the ecomomic system.
In the aftermath of 1971 the US$, already being the only Reserve Currency, rapidly became the only safe haven currency as well; And this occurred in spite of the US deteriorating from the premier credit nation to the premier debt nation of the world; Accompanied by bulging trade imbalances, no savings and now even heading rapidly towards sub real rates of return.
Excuse me, for my banal recount of above, though it seems to serve my purpose as to MK's quest as to the probability of a new gold standard. I feel this outcome is probably nil - but let's wait for the Genoa Conference later this month -, which may be the most important summit on todays currency system.
... And as would be more than happy to regain a free market - not for gold alone - but for the sake of free enterprise and not for the idea of globalization by all means, which comes akin to oppression of the poor now and all of us later.

Have a great Independence Day - Regards cb2

Journeyman (07/04/01; 10:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 57452)
Nice post! @ski (07/02/01; 01:16:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 57326)

Hi ski!

Cool!! Looking forward to more.

Regards,
Journeyman

Black Blade (07/04/01; 10:31:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 57451)
FORGOTTEN FOUNDERS
http://www.ratical.com/many_worlds/6Nations/FF.html

Benjamin Franklin, the Iroquois and the Rationale for the American Revolution

Snippit - (From an introduction by the author):

To describe the Iroquoian system would not be enough, however. I would have to show how the unique geopolitical context of the mid-eighteenth century brought together Iroquois and Colonial leaders -- the dean of whom was Franklin -- in an atmosphere favoring the communication of political and social ideas: how, in essence, the American frontier became a laboratory for democracy precisely at a time when Colonial leaders were searching for alternatives to what they regarded as European tyranny and class stratification.

At times, Indian peace was as important to the history of the continent as Indian war, and the mid-eighteenth century was such a time. Out of English efforts at alliance with the Iroquois came a need for treaty councils, which brought together leaders of both cultures. And from the earliest days of his professional life, Franklin was drawn to the diplomatic and ideological interchange of these councils -- first as a printer of their proceedings, then as a Colonial envoy, the beginning of one of the most distinguished diplomatic careers in American history. Out of these councils grew an early campaign by Franklin for Colonial union on a federal model, very similar to the Iroquois system.

Contact with Indians and their ways of ordering life left a definite imprint on Franklin and others who were seeking, during the pre-Revolutionary period, alternatives to a European order against which revolution would be made. To Jefferson, as well as Franklin, the Indians had what the colonists wanted: societies free of oppression and class stratification. The Iroquois and other Indian nations fired the imaginations of the revolution's architects. As Henry Steele Commager has written, America acted the Enlightenment as European radicals dreamed it. Extensive, intimate contact with Indian nations was a major reason for this difference.

Black Blade: On this day that we in the USA celebrate our independence from European tyrants. How did the Revolutionary leaders and the Continental Congress come to develop a system of government that would respect the rights of the citizen? Perhaps the earlier inhabitants of North America had a more profound effect on the new nation than is taught in today's government education centers. This is a long detailed read, however, for those with a bit of time before flipping a few steaks and slicing a melon or two, sit down with a beer or six and read an interesting history of how are most famous founding fathers came to create a new (or not so new) system of government. Cheers!

Journeyman (07/04/01; 10:30:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 57450)
The Wisdom of the IMF @Peter Asher, Trail Guide, Randy, ALL

Hi folks!

There is wisdom in IMF regulations that don't permit exchange rates between (fiat) currencies to be issued or settled in gold units.

Why, do you suppose, they wrote that regulation?

Regards,
Journeyman

tedw (07/04/01; 10:11:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 57449)
God Bless America
http://www.usagold.com
2 AMERICAS

There are 2 Americas. Crazy, you say, let me explain. One America is the descendents of Thomas Jefferson, George Washingtion, Patrick Henry, and Abraham Lincoln. They believe in freedom,free enterpise, and the dignity and rights of the individual.They believe in opportunity and the freedom to try and suceed and even fail. They claim the heritage passed to them by these great Americans and others. They believe in individual liberty. They claim the rights written in the Constitution.These Americans are everywhere.

But there is another Amerika. It is the Amerika that believes that individual rights should be sacrificed. It is the Amerika that believes we need welfare to protect us from our foolishness, it is the Amerika that believes Social Security will provide for our future, and it is the Amerika that believes in an Income |Tax to make sure that those who have will provide for those who have not. It is the Amerika that believes it is too dangerous for individuals to have guns. These Amerikans are everywhere to.

April 15 is the time that this divide between the 2 Americas becomes most apparent. Amerikans demand that Americans go to the post office with their money surrendering their rights as they go: it is madatory yet voluntary. And many, not yet sure whether they are Amerikans or Americans, yield to the pressure but inside � knowing that something is not quite right and that something has been lost. And it is the time Americans remind Amerikans of the shackle on their leg, and remind them of what they once were.

The visions clash. The Amerika that Amerikans want does not fit into the vision that Americans had over 200 years ago.A square vision which does not fit into the round hole of the Constitution.

May the descendents of the Sons and Daughters of Liberty rise up and take back America from Amerikans. ******
****************************************************

Bob Scultz, of We the People,has started a hunger fast to force the IRS to answer some questions.See article on www.worldnetdaily.com. Bob believes that the IRS will answer his Petition for redress of grievences rather than watch an innocent man starve to death. He is wrong. They will watch him starve to death rather than admit any wrong doing or answer legitimate questions regarding their authority. Evil is like that.

**********************************************************

This Fourth of July let us remember, and tell our children, we are heirs to the greatest heritage on Earth.
**********************************************************

"We have given you a republic,if you can keep it"-BEN FRANKLIN

Old Yeller (07/04/01; 10:03:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 57448)
The opaque world of currency values
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&date=20010630&archive=gam&slug=STMAIN30

The mainstream view of that perplexing labyrinth that continually frustrates the gold advocate,that wacky world of relative currency values.According to York University professor Moshe Milevsky,the futures market is saying that we can look out three years into the future and see little change in the $US value.Something about the collective wisdom of the market.This being the same market that says the NASDAQ was fairly valued at 5000 in the spring of 2000?

Another snippet from the article:

"The dramatic easing of monetary policy.Cyclically sensitive currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars tend to do well when the global monetary authoriksties are busy trying to 'reflate' the system."

Please don't forget the 'other' currency,the one(in the final outcome),that cannot be adjusted by authorities busy trying to manipulate
some kind of politically motivated outcome.

Have a great independence day,USA and USAGOLD.

Journeyman (07/04/01; 10:00:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 57447)
Thanks for straightening me out! @Galearis

Hi Galearis!

Thanks for the lesson!!

And I concurr -- it seems most people are bamboozled because they aren't paying attention to the important stuff!

Or maybe it IS info overload;>

Regards,
Journeyman

Galearis (07/04/01; 09:42:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 57446)
@ Journeyman, your #57434
cubic zirconium "diamond"
FWIW such merchandizing handles like "cubic ziconium" are not an apt description of substances. The "zirconium" supposedly is further misdirection and used to give the public something to recognize >>> zircon. It is not this mineral either. Cubic zirconium is a man-made mineral that has a refractive index greater than diamond - and hence more fire than the dense carbon compound that we know as diamond. In nature cubic zirconium is referred to as titanite or sphene, a not uncommon mineral of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Chemically it is CaOTiO2SiO2, an oxide/silicate, roughly speaking titanium oxide. In nature it only rarely has the transparency suitable for cutting into gems. But because of this, it is rarer in gem form than diamond. (But because of the "dumb public" factor never is recognized.)

The other one that I "enjoy" is "Alaskan Black Diamond" aka hematite, an iron ore (oxide) mineral.

It kind of makes sense in the world of commerce to exploit peoples ignorance in these more technical areas. (Under the circumstances how else does one do it?) If people were more sophisticated there would not be the opportunities for these sorts of shenanigans - kinda like the continuing suppression of the pm markets. If people were paying attention the movers and shakers would not be able to pull this stuff off - nor would we have the same propensities to blow up bubbles to popping size (smile).

That the lowest common denominator of societal awareness is more or less at the same level and never catches up with the sophistication levels of those who can manipulate the rules ensures a human history of boom and bust. The cubic zirconium thing and a ton of other examples is a microcosm thingy. The public at large is too disinterested in too many areas where they should be scruitinizing very, very carefully. These ommisions of interest doom the majority to exploitation and sets them up to be fleeced (or bombed or asphyxiated, or poisoned or,...)

Or maybe it's just information overload?

G.

ge (07/04/01; 09:32:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 57445)
USAGOLD - Gold Standard
I would bet that, the odds of returning to the gold standard is about 100-1 probability against. The bankers would not give up their privileges so easily.

Of course, the public can force the gold standard to the bankers if they avoid debt and avoid depositing money in the banks. These include, avoiding credit cards, avoiding mortgages, paying all purchases in full cash, saving in gold and stock market - with an eye on the market valuation (say, never permitting P/E ratios greater than 16-17).

Looks like a remote possibility, but who knows?

justamereBear (07/04/01; 09:18:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 57444)
USAG Gold Standard

The question is quite complex in that you are asking how a bunch of panicy, power hungry leaders might react in the crunch.

Assuming things go on as they are for the USD, then the answer is clear, never.

Assuming the other end of the scale, (which gets my vote) wherein the USD hits the crapper, the USD will cease to exist, and therefore again the answer is, never. (it is possible that something else CALLED the USD might attempt a rise out of these ashes.)(and it may even be gold backed)

Along the way, in the fight to save the treasury, all sorts of things are possible from people that are not quite rational. It is just possible that someone will come up with this solution, (of a gold backed currency) and it might get enough support that it might be tried. I doubt this option, because I expect the confiscation of precious metals long before.

But then, as I have posted before, I expect the breakup of the US as it exists today, so you will not have a USD, even if it is called that. Can you call the USSR ruble the same as the current Russian ruble? Is it the same? Some will argue Yes, with some logic.

As to timeframe, that is a matter of the confidence of the sheeple. When does Armaggedon first become apparent to them? The trigger mechanism to that confidence is probably economically related, ie recession, depression, whatever word is politically correct. I am inclined toward a view that this fall might have a high risk factor in that context. (Certainly this decade) This process will take some time to unfold, altho some parts of it will be blindingly fast. The fall of the USD, in this context, will take 2 or 3 years to play out, and possibly longer.

So, adding your question up, including the continued existence of the US, the USD, etc. etc. and whether such an effort might be classified as permanent, (ie last more than say 10 years) I put the odds near infinity, against.

j'Bear

Peter Asher (07/04/01; 09:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 57443)
@ USA Gold
Fine tale on this fine holiday morning.

I could not help but think, when I read <<< for he is the type of New England's hereditary spirit; >>> that our most outspoken advocate of the Freedom thus described is our Forum member from new England
i

Warren (07/04/01; 09:13:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 57442)
Netking 57425
Money:
Netking, You are right all money is "neutral". But, I say unto you, Whether you be rich or poor, a drug lord, a banker, or a housewife the thoughts of money replaces all other thoughts in a day.

Reread your post in the light of the debt and freedom, The rich and the poor, and the dieing at the door in many nations. You have made my point. No nation can survive without a sound means of exchange- Now, Who will tell us what money is? Who will exchange their riches for their nation?

Is it not true that the kings of gold and silver steal away the life blood of a people in the daylight?

what a man thinks makes the road either straght or crooked.

This nation is on the verge of being canned and the lid wound tight. Because we have walked the crooked road.

We will see,

Thanks,

VanRip (07/04/01; 09:00:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 57441)
Gold Standard
As long as some people of influence and power believe in the gold standard, there is always the possibility it will return, especially if a president and treasury secretary strongly believed in it. A crumbled economy and a shattered dollar could help.

The odds: one chance in five.

USAGOLD (07/04/01; 08:24:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 57440)
Happy Fourth of July. . . .
The following first appeared in the original form (as written by Nathaniel Hawthorne) in the July, 1998 issue of News & Views. I've included my original Editor's Note -- still applicable today. I thought it would be interesting to resurrect this "Tale" given the occasion American's celebrate today along with the fact that some interesting discussion has been posted on the Strauss/Howe book, "The Fourth Turning." Today we celebrate the document that changed the world -- The Declaration of Independence. Here is a glimpse of another "Greatest Generation" -- the one that preceded, laid the groundwork for and spurred the Founders. Enjoy. God bless America all that it stands for!

I'll post something on the "Gold Standard Update" later today.

*********************

(Editor's Note: We first introduced our readers to Hawthorne's Gray Champion about two years ago after first running into the story in Strauss and Howe's "Fourth Turning" -- an excellent book. I was so moved by the story that I decided to track it down in the original. To my immense satisfaction, Hawthorne did not disappoint. Our first rendering (which generated quite a response from News & Views readers) was Strauss and Howe's interpretation of the Hawthorne text. Since then, we have added thousands of readers who may not know about our ghostly "gray patriarch." The following is from Hawthorne's original and it is fitting that we re-print it in July -- the month we celebrate our independence from monarchial tyranny. For those who do not remember the story, this event occurred in 1689 before the beginning of the American Revolution. The British had decided to crush the budding movement in New England for self-rule. We pick up the story as British Governor Sir Edmond Andros marches his troops through the streets of Boston in a show of force. Suddenly, an old man "displaying the face of antique majesty, rendered doubly venerable by the hoary beard that descended on his breast" steps in the path of the advancing British troops.)

**********************

The Gray Champion
by Nathaniel Hawthorne

"Stand!" cried he.

The eye, the face, and attitude of command; the solemn, yet warlike peal of that voice, fit either to rule a host in the battlefield or be raised to God in prayer was irresistible. At the old man's word and outstretched arm, the roll of the drum was hushed at once, and the advancing line stood still. A tremulous enthusiasm seized upon the multitude. That stately form, combining the leader and the saint, so gray, so dimly seen, in such an ancient garb, could only belong to some old champion of the righteous cause, whom the oppressor's drum had summoned from his grave. They raised a shout of awe and exultation, and looked for the deliverance of New England.

The Governor, and the gentlemen of his party, perceiving themselves brought to an unexpected stand, rode hastily forward, as if they would have pressed their snorting and affrighted horses right against the hoary apparition. He, however, blenched not a step, but glancing his severe eye round the group, which half encompassed him, at last bent it sternly on Sir Edmund Andros. One would have thought that the dark old man was chief ruler there, and that the Governor and Council, with soldiers at their back, representing the whole authority of the Crown, had no alternative but obedience.

"What does this old fellow here?" cried Edward Randolph, fiercely. "On, Sir Edmund! Bid the soldiers forward, and give the dotard the same choice that you give all his countrymen--to stand aside or be trampled on!" "Nay, nay, let us show respect to the good grandsire," said Bullivant, laughing. See you not, he is some old round-headed dignitary, who hath lain asleep these thirty years, and knows nothing of the change of times?
Doubtless, he thinks to put us down with a proclamation in Old Noll's name!"

Andros, in loud and harsh tones. "How dare you stay the march of King James's Governor?"

"I have stayed the march of a King himself, ere now," replied the gray figure, with stern composure. "I am here, Sir Governor, because the cry of an oppressed people hath disturbed me in my secret place; and beseeching this favor earnestly of the Lord, it was vouchsafed me to appear once again in the good old cause of his saints. And what speak ye of James? There is no longer a Popish tyrant on the throne of England, and by tomorrow noon, his name shall be a byword in this very street, where ye would make it a word of terror. Back, thou that wast a Governor, back! With this night thy power is ended--tomorrow, the prison!-- back, lest I foretell the scaffold!"

The people had been drawing nearer and nearer, and drinking in the words of their champion, who spoke in accents long disused, like one unaccustomed to converse, except with the dead of many years ago. But his voice stirred their souls. They confronted the soldiers, not wholly without arms, and ready to convert the very stones of the street into deadly weapons. Sir Edmund Andros looked at the old man; then he cast his hard and cruel eye over the multitude, and beheld them burning with that lurid wrath, so difficult to kindle or to quench; and again he fixed his gaze on the aged form, which stood obscurely in an open space, where neither friend nor foe had thrust himself. What were his thoughts, he uttered no word which might discover. But whether the oppressor were overawed by the Gray Champion's look, or perceived his peril in the threatening attitude of the people, it is certain that he gave back, and ordered his soldiers to commence a slow and guarded retreat. Before another sunset, the Governor, and all that rode so proudly with him, were prisoners, and long ere it was known that James had abdicated, King William was proclaimed throughout New England.

But where was the Gray Champion? Some reported that, when the troops had gone from King Street, and the people were thronging tumultuously in their rear, Bradstreet, the aged Governor, was seen to embrace a form more aged than his own. Others soberly affirmed, that while they marveled at the venerable grandeur of his aspect, the old man had faded from their eyes, melting slowly into the hues of twilight, till, where he stood, there was an empty space. But all agree that the hoary shape was gone. The men of that generation watched for his reappearance, in sunshine and in twilight, but never saw him more, nor knew when his funeral passed, nor where his gravestone was.

And who was the Gray Champion? Perhaps his name might be found in the records of that stern Court of Justice, which passed a sentence, too mighty for the age, but glorious in all after-times, for its humbling lesson to the monarch and its high example to the subject. I have heard, that whenever the descendants of the Puritans are to show the spirit of their sires, the old man appears again. When eighty years had passed, he walked once more in King Street. Five years later, in the twilight of an April morning, he stood on the green, beside the meeting-house, at Lexington, where now the obelisk of granite, with a slab of slate inlaid, commemorates the first fallen of the Revolution. And when our fathers were toiling at the breastwork on Bunker's Hill, all through that night the old warrior walked his rounds. Long, long may it be, ere he comes again! His hour is one of darkness, and adversity, and peril. But should domestic tyranny oppress us, or the invader's step pollute our soil, still may the Gray Champion come, for he is the type of New England's hereditary spirit; and his shadowy march, on the eve of danger, must ever be the pledge, that New England's sons will vindicate their ancestry.

Orville Goldenbacher (07/04/01; 07:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 57439)
In-de-pen-dence (in`di-pen`dens)
n. 1 The quality or condition of being independent, esp. freedom from dependence upon or control by others.

Sorry folks, not much independence left in the good ol' U.S.A.

The Supreme Court says, "We own you and there is NOTHING you can do about it."

Liberty (lib`er-tee)
n. 1 The state of being free in action or thought from the domination of others or from restricting circumstances; freedom. 2 Common catch word used on American Coinage, doesn't mean much any more.

Every body have a happy Quatro de Julio

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (07/04/01; 07:30:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 57438)
Independence Day
What can of independence is the USA celebrating today? You have 2 US companies, GE and honeywell, they wish to get together. However, they are been discouraged from doing so, by some folks many thousand miles away. Is this any of their business? Does the USA really have independence?

Journeyman (7/4/01; 06:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 57437)
Don't stop - - - don't stop . . . .@Peter Asher msg#: 57424

Hi Peter!

You've really got it pegged:

"Borrowing fiat against gold owned is the opposite of putting up money to back a promise to deliver future gold.
+
Said alternatively: Using gold as collateral to borrow fiat is the opposite of using fiat as collateral for a promise to deliver gold." -Peter Asher msg#: 57424

But people have been thinking backwards about this for several decades now - - - even some posters here;)

Repitition is, they say, the first principle of education so - - - don't stop -- don't stop!!

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Will help when I can.

Journeyman (7/4/01; 06:42:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 57436)
You sure know how to nail the essence @Sierra Madre msg#: 57421

High Sierra! (couldn't resist)

Wow! The old Declaration sure sounds radical when you capitalize the operative part doesn't it?

Regards,
Journeyman

Journeyman (7/4/01; 06:38:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 57435)
Apologies @Strad Master

Ah, sorry, Strad Master - - -

I shot first and asked questions later, but well before I discovered your post was an answer to USAGOLD's question!

Regards,
Journeyman

Journeyman (7/4/01; 06:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 57434)
Compressed gold @SteveH

Diamonds are, for simplicity, extremely compressed graphite or carbon. It's the previous difficulty of reproducing the conditions for doing such extreme compression that kept commercial diamonds off the market and from competing with natural diamonds for quite awhile.

Of course, DeBeers did an even better job of keeping diamonds off the market and the price high!

I beleive "cubic zirconium" is what they call synthetic diamonds these days. Originally you could, with an educated eye and a loupe, easily distinguish between these and natural diamonds because, unlike natural diamonds, the synthetic diamonds are flawless. A pawn-broker friend of mine tells me that now they have refined the process to produce flaws in the synthetics, and it's more difficult to distinguish them from the "real" thing.

In the case of gold, as Turnaround points out, we don't have to worry about a sudden increase in gold supply from labs.

A quick and dirty way to look at this in relation to synthetic diamonds -- just common carbon compressed in a particular way -- is, "Would specially compressed _gold_ be more or less valuable than regular gold?"

Regards,
Journeyman

Turnaround (7/4/01; 05:15:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 57433)
bid/ask, ergo

Journeyman (07/03/01; 10:05:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57375)
Two fewer bid-asks @Turnaround, Peter Asher, ORO

Hi Turnaround!

"If I'm not mistaken (could be of course) I believe ORO means that transactions done directly in gold don't require cross-currency exchanges. Fiat to different-fiat transactions require an intermediary to translate the first currrency, probably in a transactional gold world, thru gold first, into the second fiat.

For this service, you are charged transaction fees or "money changers'" charges. You can see them in the bid-ask spread at a "cambio" in a "foreign" airport for example. In a sense, they are the "profit" a middle man charges you to "buy" his product, which in this case is another currency.

You [incur] these to some degree, in addition to any other "transfer" fees, etc. anytime you convert one currency into another.

Thus transactions in gold have an inherent advantage in cross-currency exchanges."

You nailed it, thanks so much! It was the bid/ask *spread* in transactions that threw me.

correction-
"transmution" should be "transmutation" in 'transmutator' post.

Turnaround (7/4/01; 04:41:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 57432)
I'd like to sell you this transmutator

Canuck (7/4/01; 04:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 57429)
@ Steve H.
It's been a long, long time since my formal chemistry classes but my guess is gold, as an element, can never be reproduced.

"A diamond, which I was unaware could be reproduced, is a complex compound which theoretically can be. Is the cost to manufacture a diamond more expensive than traditional mining?"

Diamond is simply one of the crystalline forms (called allotropes) of pure carbon, the other form is graphite. (Graphenes are a subset of graphite, imo). carbon is an element, like gold, lead tin copper, aluminum, oxygen- the 92 natural flavors that atoms come in.
Low-quality, tiny diamonds have been manufactured for maybe thirty years (I'm guessing), mostly for abrasives. Newer techniques use chemical vapor deposition (CVD), sometimes directly onto an existing diamond. One process can be used on plastics and other firms surfaces, so you could have diamond coated plastic lenses for example (these may already be commercialized).
As for gem-quality, here there be tigers. If it is not economically feasible now it surely will be in the not-distant future. Maybe a lab in Siberia really is cranking out warehouses full of them, I wouldn't bet any gold on it either way.

SteveH (7/4/01; 03:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57428)
"Can gold be made or reproduced by scientific laboratory processes such as a diamond can and is? If not, why not? Or, is it just a matter of time?"

Gold can only be made on Earth and in the rest of the known Universe by transmution- by changing some other element(s) into gold atoms. It's been done using particle accelerators at a low, low price of $10 gadzillion/Oz (July, 2001 $). Don't even begin to think of this as an economically feasible alternative, not now and probably not ever. Also, if it becomes possible to build a gold-making transmutator machine, this would not change anything. The machine would function economically precisely like a gold mine, costs and all.

LeSin (7/4/01; 04:32:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 57431)
Happy 4th July Celebrations to One & All USA Citizens & Residents
Indeed a Day worthy of much celebrations - and many more, cheers. "S"

Turnaround (7/4/01; 04:16:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 57430)
USAGOLD- return to some gold standard

USAGOLD (07/03/01; 20:12:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 57394)
"I would like to ask a question of all the members of this esteemed table:
What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.

Oh, and one more:

What would precipitate it?"

Well, Sir USAGOLD, that's a rather large question. Looking into my secondhand crystal ball:

Starting with the easier parts- what might precipitate it. For a US currency collapse there was the "N horsemen" of the paper-gold separation debate last year- the unknown short position, an OTC derivatives debacle, Big Float's homecoming parade, and so on. Any one of those going down will probably cascade into the others, it would seem.

We are already in a global "economic slowdown", which may (is, imo) be the beginnings of a global "economic collapse". A collpase looks exactly like a slowdown at the beginning. The key event, as Another, Trail Guide, ORO, Randy and others have repeatedly written about is the loss, partial or total, of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, thus taking away our (the good ol' USA's) exhorbitant free lunch. The currency *has to* depreciate (price-inflation), whether it is accompanied by a monetary contraction (deflation) or no. This process appears to be ramping up now, albeit unevenly. If them furigners replace dollar trade with gold, then we will have to follow suit, leader of the 'free world' or not.

So, five years from now (year 2006) we have, for pretty sure:
1) A decimated and penny-pinching middle class.
2) Same thing for the government.
3) And therefore for the recipients of its largesse.

So we are all going to be a little more thrifty and discerning.

In my view, the US 'hyperpower' is an empire, with some similarites to other empires and many differences. The FRN is one of the keystones of that edifice. I look to the Former Soviet Union as the most similar modern example of a collapsing empire, and to Rome for the historical record. US history has been sort of like Rome's, running at quad-speed. An empire is a type of pyramid scheme, a dynamical system that cannot remain in equilibruim. Like an organism, as it stops expanding (growing) it begins contracting, and we are well into the contraction stage by a number of measures.

Statists have traditional 'solutions' for all this, generally revolving around war and around oppression- c.f. 1930's for example. If the government-worshippers do get completely out of control then of course all bets are off- maybe we all get electrodollar chip implants "for the good of society", or maybe the country begins (or continues) to disintegrate like its best enemy the old Soviet Union. In both cases voila, a de facto gold standard. Maybe the 'interesting times' are a new Dark Ages, maybe a Justinian law replay, maybe corporate fuedalism (globalism) has its day.

The implicit assumption in your question is "the US government exists five years hence", which I'd give a 95-5 to. I give it <40-60 by year 2030, for other reasons not discussed in this forum.

To the first question, will the Statists take a little dip in Lake Reality, this depends on so many things that cannot be quantifed. We have such a huge population now of media-thought-controlled, public-educated raised, corn-fed Statists that beleive in miracles.

The question is enormous.

A number, just for the heck of it- 50-50

Canuck (7/4/01; 04:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 57429)
@ Steve H.
It's been a long, long time since my formal chemistry classes but my guess is gold, as an element, can never be reproduced.

A diamond, which I was unaware could be reproduced, is a complex compound which theoretically can be. Is the cost to manufacture a diamond more expensive than traditional mining?

SteveH (7/4/01; 03:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57428)
Ok, for those brains out there
Can gold be made or reproduced by scientific laboratory processes such as a diamond can and is? If not, why not? Or, is it just a matter of time?

Because if it can, then what's the point of a gold standard?

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 02:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 57427)
@ RossL
Re your- "The gold standard will return in my lifetime. ---deal with it."

We need to know how old you are and how your lifestyle would affect your positioning on the actuary tables

Netking (7/4/01; 01:53:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 57426)
5,000 Gold Miners Set to Lose Their Jobs
http://allafrica.com/stories/200107020188.html
Nothing speaks clearer for the gold (and silver) market that we have reached near bottom than the continuing reports of lay offs & mines closing - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Snippit:
"Another 5,000 Free State gold miners will be retrenched in the next few weeks as the tragedy of mass job losses on South Africa's gold mines continues to take its toll.

Sowetan was told another 5 000 workers would lose their jobs "soon" as three more shafts at Anglogold, Gold Fields and Harmony mines in the Free State faced closure. The last and latest mine shaft was closed on June 18, with about 1 000 workers losing their jobs. Ten shafts have been shut down and 150 000 mineworkers retrenched since 1994.

Meanwhile, it has emerged that the National Party (NP) and later the African National Congress (ANC) government had failed to heed warnings of an impending devastating decline in South Africa's gold mining industry and its consequences. . ."

Netking (7/4/01; 01:31:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 57425)
Warren - Money
Warren(57411) Re: ". . .This will be their pay for partaking of the rotten lucre that is the root of all evil"
----------------------------------------------------------
(Warren do you not mean "The LOVE of money" carried to excess?)I venture Sir that money is fundamentally "neutral". It does/will take on the characteristic of the owner thereof though. To a South American drug Lord or a Mafia Don, money takes on a different manifestation or representation than to John Doe supporting his family & paying the 30 year table mortgage. Money is simply a "Medium of Exchange" and in itself is harmless.

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 01:26:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 57424)
Definition

For the record, I see 'Gold Standard' as meaning a fiat currency entitling the bearer to use it to redeem a specified amount of gold for a specified number of currency units.

My Free-Gold proposal has gold exchangeable into and out of all currencies at a free-market determined rate, absent of any contractual promises operating as gold substitutes.

To attempt to clarify the opposing viewpoints in the current area of contention:
Borrowing fiat against gold owned is the opposite of putting up money to back a promise to deliver future gold.

Said alternatively: Using gold as collateral to borrow fiat is the opposite of using fiat as collateral for a promise to deliver gold

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 01:11:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 57423)
Reborn on the Fourth of July

Michael: Great to see you back in the game. The 'Round Table' is alive and well and living in cyber-city!

Peter Asher (7/4/01; 01:07:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 57422)
The US will NEVER return to a Gold standard

No other nation that has an economy that needs credit for inventory pipelines, R&D and all other forms of productivity that require payment for labor and services well in advance of reaching the final consumer, can ever have a gold standard. UNLESS that Gold Standard is based on an artificially high Fiat/Gold ratio held in place by government edict, in which case it is subject to the vagaries of law and disorder and not really a Gold Standard at all.

Sierra Madre (7/4/01; 00:45:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 57421)
Correction!!

"That they are endowed BY THEIR CREATOR with certain inalienable rights, ....."

Sierra

Sierra Madre (7/4/01; 00:42:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 57420)
Happy Birthday, U.S. of A.!
I seem to remember one T. Jefferson wrote, for this day, a document that began, if memory serves:

July 4th, 1776
IN CONGRESS, the thirteen United States of America.

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have united them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of Nature, and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind, requires that they should declare the causes which impell them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed with certain inalienable rights; that among these rights, are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness; that TO SECURE THESE RIGHTS, GOVERNMENTS ARE INSTITUTED AMONG MEN, DERIVING THEIR JUST POWERS FROM THE CONSENT OF THE GOVERNED. THAT WHENEVER ANY FORM OF GOVERNMENT BECOMES DESTRUCTIVE OF THESE RIGHTS, IT IS THEIR RIGHT, IT IS THEIR DUTY, TO ALTER SUCH GOVERNMENT, AND TO INSTITUTE A NEW GOVERNMENT, laying tis foundations and disposing its powers in such order, as to them shall seem most likely to secure their future safety and happiness.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established, shall not be altered for light and transient causes. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations EVINCES A DESIRE TO REDUCE THEM UNDER UTTER DESPOTISM...

***************

Hats off, to the Founding Fathers, who wrote large in the book of history.

Sierra

turbohawg (7/4/01; 00:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 57419)
gold standard
Since I've been on this cycle kick lately, I'll re-post an excerpt from a February post that fits better here than it did then.
-------------------

turbohawg (2/25/2001; 16:11:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 48928)
Cycles
Recently it was my pleasure to read one of George Lindsay's fascinating as hell books, published in �69, in which he explored 3 of the many cycles he discovered.

They are the 36 and 40 year cycles +/- one year, which sometimes are split at 38 years. So this is basically a 35 to 41 year cycle window.

Then there are the 55-57 year and 64-69 year cycles.

...

Lindsay didn't discuss gold, at least not in this particular book, but he did consider the 1896 presidential campaign of William Jennings Bryan an important emotional agitation which led to Keynesianism and related events at cyclic intervals, such as FDR's Raw Deal in the 1930s.

...

Taking Lindsay's work and applying a little armchair cycle analysis of my own, it's quite apparent that regular cycles are at work in the gold market. Count forward 37 years from Bryan's 1896 campaign and you have the 1933 gold confiscation by FDR. Nixon in 1971, 38 years later, took the dollar off the gold standard. The Washington Agreement was signed in 1999, 66 years after the confiscation and in the middle of when the 64-69 year cycle was due. So what's next ? The 35-41 year cycle window after the 1971 move by Nixon falls from 2006 to 2012.

Anyone care to take a stab at what gold related event is most likely to occur in that time frame ?
--------------------

I'll take a stab at my own question. My guess is that it won't be before that timeframe that some sort of official link to gold will be re-established, and it'll happen then as a result of several years of currency chaos.

2006 falls just inside MK's 5 year window from here, but with other cycles not due till some time down the road it's unlikely anything will happen on the front end of that timeframe. So, a gold standard within the next 5 years ? < 1% chance.

hAug

Strad Master (07/04/01; 00:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 57418)
Journeyman
My reasons
I think (as others here have stated) that it would take such a massive collapse of economic civilization for a return to the gold standard to happen that it is, for all intents and purposes, out of the question. Besides, since I'm really a musician and don't know much about such things - other than what I pick up here and there, and what my gut tells me - that I can afford to be absolutely 100% certain. What's the worst that can happen? I might be wrong, and that's certainly happened before. Since it is an open ended precdiction, I can't be proven wrong unless it actually happens. If it doesn't - it may yet in the future. But, as long as it doesn't, I'm right.

Black Blade (07/04/01; 00:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57417)
Muggy Heat Stretches Calif Power Grid
http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/comtex/2001/07/03/up/0000-4515-bc-us-electricity-1stld

Snippit:

LOS ANGELES, Jul 03, 2001 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Just two days after Gov. Gray Davis boasted that Californians had slashed their electricity consumption by 12 percent, a wave of hot, muggy summer weather Tuesday pushed the state's power supply to the brink of rolling blackouts. A Stage Two power alert was issued shortly before noon Tuesday as inland temperatures headed into the 90s and toward the 100-degree mark while coastal temperatures topped 80.

The power industry has bridled at any kind of price ceiling on their wares, and the Los Angeles Times reported that confusion over just what the eventual price would be for the electricity prompted at least five power sellers to back out of the California market on Monday. "Since they don't know what they are going to get paid, they are not going to take the risk and are not going to sell the energy," Ray Hart, deputy director of the California Department of Water Resources, told the Times. It remains to be seen if this unwillingness by some brokers to sell power to California will continue or exacerbate the need for blackouts.

Black Blade: A second day of near blackouts. More telling is a quarterly report I received from Utilicorp (UCU). They make a point of proudly announcing that they have very little exposure to California. Now other power providers are backing off plans to deal with California and yet others are pulling out of the California energy market. The result will be - it won't matter how much conservation and lower voltage is used. Without willing providers to give away power to California, the energy crisis will resume and the state's economy will continue to slide into the abyss. The few remaining Californian Ants should take note and keep making preparations for the coming storm. Couple this with the lack of energy infrastructure and growing scarcity of natural gas. Regulators in California (and other states) focused more on minimizing utility rates rather than allowing companies to operate like - well - like companies. Now the price to be paid is the lack of energy.

Cheap gold translates into cheap portfolio insurance. Prices have fallen back as many absorb the news of desperate measures taken by the unprofitable overhedged Barrick Gold (ABX) acquisition of lightly hedged Homestake (HM). Homestake's unhedged ounces are not enough to keep Barrick afloat when the POG rises. It will come to a point where we will say "Goodbye" to Barrick when their counterparties and creditors kick Munky and Oliphant out of their opulent offices and "send them down the road."

BTW, tomorrow on the 4th, there will be a special on CNBC about the energy crisis. They usually have Matt Simmons of Simmons and Co. Intl. As a guest. Could be "Interesting."

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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