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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/4/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (12/04/00; 23:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 42930)
NG still rising
Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going, and……

Natural Gas 7.73 +0.297 +4 %
Heating Oil 1.015 +0.0066 +0.65 %
Crude Oil 31.31 +0.09 +0.29 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.802 0 0 %

NG hit limit up in trading today. The situation is still near critical. Heating costs are going up for sure, and unlike heating oil, there is no SPR for NG. Many times as many people rely on NG for heating than those who rely on heating oil. A severe cold snap could be devastating, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes. For them it is a choice between "Heat or Eat."




Black Blade (12/04/00; 23:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42929)
NG still rising
Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going, and……

Natural Gas 7.73 +0.297 +4 %
Heating Oil 1.015 +0.0066 +0.65 %
Crude Oil 31.31 +0.09 +0.29 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.802 0 0 %

NG hit limit up in trading today. The situation is still near critical. Heating costs are going up for sure, and unlike heating oil, there is no SPR for NG. Many times as many people rely on NG for heating than those who rely on heating oil. A severe cold snap could be devastating, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes. For them it is a choice between "Heat or Eat."




Black Blade (12/04/00; 23:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42928)
NG still rising
Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going, and……

Natural Gas 7.73 +0.297 +4 %
Heating Oil 1.015 +0.0066 +0.65 %
Crude Oil 31.31 +0.09 +0.29 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.802 0 0 %

NG hit limit up in trading today. The situation is still near critical. Heating costs are going up for sure, and unlike heating oil, there is no SPR for NG. Many times as many people rely on NG for heating than those who rely on heating oil. A severe cold snap could be devastating, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes. For them it is a choice between "Heat or Eat."




Journeyman (12/04/00; 23:30:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 42927)
Turkeys don't get much help from IMF @ALL
http://newsnet.reuters.com/news/rcom:old_general/nL04153703.html

Consider the following from the article on Turkey's crisis posted earlier (link in header.) The two paragraphs below, separated from each other by about half of the article, tell an interesting story:

"The central bank governor said over the weekend he had
$18.8 billion to use, [to defend the Turkish currency down
from $21.583 billion on November 24 and $24.433 billion
before the crisis set in." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And from an earlier paragraph in the same story:

"In Ankara, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team
began talks on a loan, possibly $4-5 billion, to
ease a dramatic liquidity squeeze now threatening to
demolish Turkey's anti-inflation programme." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And yet another relevant paragaraph from same Reuters story:

"Average overnight interbank rates, a good measure of the general climate in money markets, reached
782.46 percent, down from 863.99 on Friday. But there was no clear indication the upward trend of the
last two weeks had been broken." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

And two final paragraphs from that Reuters story:

"If the two sides fail to agree a Supplementary Reserve Facility (SRF), a short-term loan at higher interest
rates, or talks drag on, Turkey could be forced to abandon a crawling peg currency and devalue. This
would destroy the IMF programme."
+
"I'm confident the peg will hold because the consequences of allowing the peg to go, both in domestic
and international terms, are just too high," John Lomax of HSBC said." -Hatice Aydogdu, Turkey in key IMF talks, market turmoil continues, Reuters, Dec. 4, 2000

Now compare the situation described for Turkey by the Reuters article with "dollar tyranny" described in an article from a Mexican site posted last week:

"As soon as exports of any one country seem to fade, the
speculative sharks begin to circle. The currency is deemed
"overvalued". A devaluation is at hand. The Central Bank can cast
away all its accumulated Dollars in defense of its currency, but
in vain. The speculators are stronger than any Central Bank. The
currency must fall in value, and then will be weaker because the
Central Bank has no reserves left.
+
*The Central Bank will raise interest rates drastically, to stem
the Dollar hemorrhage and retain or bring in Dollars. The
devaluation will wreck savings, and the high interest rates will
devastate the productive structure*. *The Central Bank will
continue to invest its Dollar balances in U.S. Treasury Bills
paying less than 6%. Thus even the most severely afflicted
countries are financing the U.S. Government, at a cost to
themselves.*" -Hugo Salinas Price, The spectres of Bretton Woods, http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/salinas9.htm

The date on the article on Turkey is Dec. 4, 200. This means that between November 24 and Dec. 4, the Turkish CB blew $21.583 billion minus $18.8 billon or $2.783 billion defending the Turkish currency --- in 10 days!

If the burn rate stays the same,

1. How long would the IMF $4-5 billion hold the line? (Answer: Less than 20 days.)

2. How much longer than that would the original remaining $18.8 billion last? (Answer: 66 more days)

$1 - 618400 Turkish lira. If you were in Turkey, would you want to own gold?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I know. It couldn't happen here.


MarkeTalk (12/04/00; 22:42:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42926)
Of Elections and Gold
Ah, at last! It appears that we will get a reprieve from the incessant talking political heads (and rears) as the nine Supremes in Washington uttered their words of wisdom today: Send it back down the line (to the lesser supremes of the Sunshine State). I had posted last time that such a decision would be a distinct possibility, since who wants to handle this year's (not to mention this century's) political hot potato. But it does appear that Al Gore aka "Gorebedon Milosevic" may finally be running out of options and time and will be packing his bags. Hallelejah! You really can't fault the guy for trying because if--no, when--he loses he then goes to the back of the line and (you guessed it) Hillary is next up in four years. Why else did she run for the Senate seat of New York State?

But let's get back to what really counts: the markets. As I posted around the second week of November, I expected the U.S. Dollar Index to tell the tale. And it has. After a double top at around 118, it has since broken down hard--including today's drop--to close under 114. I mentioned that chart-wise 114 was KEY SUPPORT. Now the next stop is 112, then 110, then 108 and finally somewhere around 100. Eventually, I see the U.S. Dollar Index putting in a double bottom at around 82!! Conversely, the means the Euro and Swiss Franc will rebound sharply and so will GOLD. Gold is even showing signs of life, up another $1.90 today. We will see the days when $5-10 jumps are common. All of this action is not lost on the CRB Index which just broke above 230 today (thanks to rallying livestock, grains and softs). Once it takes out 234, we are off to the races.

Gentlemen, start your engines and prepare for the great GOLD rally of 2001!

MarkeTalk (12/04/00; 22:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42925)
(No Subject)
Ah, at last! It appears that we will get a reprieve from the incessant talking political heads (and rears) as the nine Supremes in Washington uttered their words of wisdom today: Send it back down the line (to the lesser supremes of the Sunshine State). I had posted last time that such a decision would be a distinct possibility, since who wants to handle this year's (not to mention this century's) political hot potato. But it does appear that Al Gore aka "Gorebedon Milosevic" may finally be running out of options and time and will be packing his bags. Hallelejah! You really can't fault the guy for trying because if--no, when--he loses he then goes to the back of the line and (you guessed it) Hillary is next up in four years. Why else did she run for the Senate seat of New York State?

But let's get back to what really counts: the markets. As I posted around the second week of November, I expected the U.S. Dollar Index to tell the tale. And it has. After a double top at around 118, it has since broken down hard--including today's drop--to close under 114. I mentioned that chart-wise 114 was KEY SUPPORT. Now the next stop is 112, then 110, then 108 and finally somewhere around 100. Eventually, I see the U.S. Dollar Index putting in a double bottom at around 82!! Conversely, the means the Euro and Swiss Franc will rebound sharply and so will GOLD. Gold is even showing signs of life, up another $1.90 today. We will see the days when $5-10 jumps are common. All of this action is not lost on the CRB Index which just broke above 230 today (thanks to rallying livestock, grains and softs). Once it takes out 234, we are off to the races.

Gentlemen, start your engines and prepare for the great GOLD rally of 2001!

megatron (12/04/00; 22:34:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42924)
journeyman
Wow! How to follow that up! To start with, I believe we are actually in agreement. Gambling is foolish,risky behavior. Driving over 200 mph is foolish. Cliff diving is foolish.
Farming these days is actually foolish.
That certainly does not stop people from doing it. Financial survival is series of gambles, is it not? Your points are on the money, but again I must admit I do not see how A person who went short from 1980 (paper) could come out behind a person who was long(physical)? ANYONE who has bought and held since that time is TECHNICALLY behind ANYONE who consistently went short!?!($US) Are they not? I, personally have lost money on options because of my ,obviously idiotic, belief in going long gold. There had to be someone on the other side?? Look, I am gold's biggest fool,ok, but you cannot deny the trend or the math. By removing the emotion/faith and reading the 20 year charts it should be plain to see. What is also plain to see in the fundamentals is very bullish. That in no way alters the FACTS of the chart! Where we come together on is the philosophy, and we are microns apart on the execution only!
I believe, as you, those contracts will be asswipe, mark my words, But to our shagrin, it has not stopped shorts from profitting handsomely.

PS. Also,I do VERY extensive research on junior gold/silver stocks before buying and don't own any mutual funds.

Perplexed (12/04/00; 22:20:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42923)
(No Subject)


JOURNYMAN this quote reminds me of a story.

THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO KEEP THIS STRUCTURE INTACT OVER THE LONG TERM TO AVOID A REVERSION TO A GOLD STANDARD.

It seems a hi-way patrolman had been following a truck for many miles, and although the policman had made several stops he would alway find himself behind the truck fairly quickly.
The officer, after once again over taking truck, this time parked beside the road, observed the driver beating the sides of the trailer with a broom handle. The officer thought it strange, but had other things to do, so he didn't stop. A short time later the officer was stopped with a "customer" but observed the truck as it again passed him. After a short time the officer again overtook the truck and again it was stopped beside the road and the driver was again beating the sides of the trailer. This time the officer just had to stop and find out what was going on.

The driver explained that he feared that he was overloaded with a cargo of canaries, and had to keep half of them flying before going through the near by weight station.

For the Demos as well as the Repubs, the scales are coming into view, and its going to take a lot of effort to keep this economy flying.

Perplexed



YGM (12/04/00; 21:33:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42922)
For The Kids or The BIG KIDS...Xmas Fun....
http://www.nstorm.com/games/download_game.cfm?game=frogpult.exe
Free downloads, Elf Bowling 2, Revote, Clinton, Gore, Bush,
lots of funny stuff....Yes way off topic I know...YGM

Rockgrabber (12/04/00; 20:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 42921)
Right on, on all the great posts!!
Journeyman, justamerebear, and of course everyone who helps here lead closer to truth. I am heading to bed if I can, but cant wait to get up in just a bit, and digest what you all have been posting!


As always I will be getting up looking forward to what great articles Black Blade comes up with tonight. This must be his rest, or research time.

Journeyman (12/04/00; 20:18:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42920)
The real dirty truth! @ALL
http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm

I excerpted the paragraph below from the excellent link (repeated in header) supplied by ET. This is as close to the truth as I've ever seen in print.

"Assume for a moment that the world's leaders are dutifully aware of the existential
aspects of the current relative structure of the global currency regime, meaning that
THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO KEEP THIS STRUCTURE INTACT OVER THE LONG TERM TO AVOID A
REVERSION TO A GOLD STANDARD. Is this a fair assumption? It is a safe one… never
underestimate the intelligence of the market's puppet masters. Anyhow, considering such
an assumption it isn't too difficult to see how the Fed and the Treasury will have to
concede at least a temporary Euro victory, if only to preserve the global currency
infrastructure." -Turkeys Can't Fly Far, Ed Bugos, Nov. 28, 2000, http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm [same link in header]

There's the dirty truth, the part I typed in CAPS, and unfortunately, TG's group endorses it.

Regards,
Journeyman


Journeyman (12/04/00; 20:18:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42919)
The real dirty truth! @ALL
http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm

I excerpted the paragraph below from the excellent link (repeated in header) supplied by ET. This is as close to the truth as I've ever seen in print.

"Assume for a moment that the world's leaders are dutifully aware of the existential
aspects of the current relative structure of the global currency regime, meaning that
THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE TO KEEP THIS STRUCTURE INTACT OVER THE LONG TERM TO AVOID A
REVERSION TO A GOLD STANDARD. Is this a fair assumption? It is a safe one… never
underestimate the intelligence of the market's puppet masters. Anyhow, considering such
an assumption it isn't too difficult to see how the Fed and the Treasury will have to
concede at least a temporary Euro victory, if only to preserve the global currency
infrastructure." -Turkeys Can't Fly Far, Ed Bugos, Nov. 28, 2000, http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm [same link in header]

Tere's the dirty truth, the part I typed in CAPS, and unfortunately, TG's group endorses it.

Regards,
Journeyman


silvercollector (12/04/00; 20:07:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42918)
@ auspec @ All
auspec,

I'm with you buddy, scooping big chunks of silver and little pieces of gold, sitting back and waiting, patiently.

My gut feeling is this; the bulls on CNBC and CNN have an enormus stake in this game. Goldman Sucks and the likewise investment brokers have a decided bias as well. The economy and taxes generated by this bull is reason enough to manage the numbers to their benefit. Is the game rigged to keep it going, damn straight. If it stops, the severe domino unwind will be devastating. Just think of our modern economy, a good portion is based strictly on the promotion of the economy itself. It's a self-fulfilling spiral.

On the other hand the handful of contrarian comment on this forum and others seem to be more genuine. There seems to be a greater degree of truth and reality to the information on the contrarian websites and frankly the individuals on this site are a hell of alot smarter, period.

It may seem a hokey theory but believability and integrity
play big in my book and the people on this site are long in this sense. This is why I am the silvercollector, because it is honest and it is the truth.

Look into the eyes of Clinton and Gore, do you see honesty, integrity, and truth emulating from these men?

Cavan Man (12/04/00; 19:51:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 42917)
CB2 42916
Moi aussi mon ami. Le POG, c'est tres beaucoup n'est pas?

Don't worry. Let the easing begin. More inflation in store. Twenty dollars for a family of five to eat (poorly) at McDonalds tonight (humoring the kids)! $1.05 for a small can of chicken noodle soup! I'll have a hedonic and a glass of water--no straw.



CoBra(too) (12/04/00; 19:21:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42916)
- @ All and remarkably - I "DON'T CARE" ....
... If I bought gold at the end of the first rally, or bought (more) mining shares today! -
Well, that's it - I bought close to a multi-year bottom... a bottom convincingly enough to never care about any retesting of the same - and I don't care about the DJI, or any other index going "Insana", as the DJI proved today - as it will help to fill my limit orders for NEM, HM and - smaller fry, with more potential than the biggies , and, of course bullion.
Well, I don't care - though I've got to be in - NOW- and maybe tomorow is either a day early ... or (never) too late ...? ... to debate,
the fate -
of the state, where courts decide -
the presidential candidate - ...
Dade, Talahassee Gate ...
or just too late
to contemplate
a class action
against all
not voting in the state!?

Have you? - cb2


Farfel (12/04/00; 18:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42915)
Learning from the GOLD Bear Market
I notice that the Dow and Nasdaq futures have gone ballistic overnight, most small investors have been "trained" by the Wall Street gurus this past month to believe that a definitive final election result will cause a stock market jump.

Of course, bear markets do tend to disappoint, especially those in which the big commercial players hold record short positions.

How many times do I remember over the past years how certain bullish developments in the gold market turned out to be no more than mere "false hopes? "

That, of course, is the secret to creating investor capitulation. Every significant hope must be dashed, until a point is reached where the bleeding and disappointment is
simply too much, and investors run for the exits, rather than lose the remnants of their assets, rather than experience the constant depression resulting from almost always being wrong.

Unless some negative event develops before opening tomorrow, I would expect a huge jump in the Nasdaq tomorrow, very sharp, very swift, and it should cause many bulls to break their rigid code of market conduct. One code that most disciplined investors try to follow is this: only speculate with profits (house money), never play with original personal source capital.

However, when you have been bleeding a long time, and you believe a sure thing (long awaited X-mas rally) is at hand, then caution may be thrown to the wind, often with disastrous results.

A sharp surge, followed almost immediately by a full bearish key reversal, could throw a large number of over-eager bulls into a real "trouble zone," wherein much personal source capital is placed at risk at a time where high lifestyle demands make such risk unbearable.

THAT is the springpad for a capitulation panic, especially when the reversal is sudden and very discouraging, and the exits remain so narrow for the millions of overleveraged, under-saved investors today.

Thanks

F*



Cavan Man (12/04/00; 18:34:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42914)
the Stranger
RE: FED OPen Market Cmte.
Did you see the article in the WSJ today regarding the "strong possibility" that the FED will ease soon? Also, there was an article at Bloomberg yesterday about the FED Futures (I think) indicating a rate cut appears to be imminent.

There we have it; more debauchery visited upon our money supply. Where does it all end?

Cavan Man (12/04/00; 18:31:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 42913)
Randy (@ the tower)
Randy, what is the direct impact upon the US when interest rates hit 1700% in Turkey and Ukraine braces for 25% inflation? That's a long way from home.

Cavan Man (12/04/00; 18:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42912)
canamami,Henri,Gresham,justamerebear
Thanks for all the input regarding NS and PEI--very helpful.

ET (12/04/00; 18:07:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42911)
Ed Bugos
http://www.safehaven.ca/GIC112800.htm

This is Ed's commentary from a week ago. Outstanding piece covering the dollar/euro/oil/gold relationship. From the article;

"Gerard Jackson, in March 1997, wrote an article for The New Australian
entitled: Free Markets and Democracy, a reply to George Soros. In the
article, Mr. Jackson, a well-read economic historian, replied to Soros'
attack on the free market system and of it threatening democracy,
correctly accusing him of ignorant economics. I will not spend time on
the argument, but have provided the link for your own interest... just
click on the title of the article above.

"As we all know, Mr. Soros strongly believes that financial markets are
inherently unstable. Extrapolating such a view, it isn't difficult to reach
statist, socialist, or communist conclusions on the topic of individualism
and market mechanisms, but I am amazed at who it comes from. What
ever happened to his supposed understanding of economics?

"That is less important, however, than perhaps the fact that his view of
free markets (he is publishing a new book by the way) may be
increasingly and frighteningly representative of today's leaders. Now I
re read this article because I was dumfounded by comments that he
made in a recent interview last week, where he claimed that the
condition of rapidly vanishing savings rates can go on for some time,
that the government's bourses are well intact due to the US fiscal
budget surplus, there is no inflation, and that the dollar will stay strong
because foreign interests are all on side.

"Combined with his critique of the ECB's monetary policies, I don't know
if he is lying because he is short the dollar or because he has become
an agent of the US Treasury (part of the establishment, so to speak).
Anyway, the part of the Gerard Jackson article, which I found
particularly interesting and goes right to the heart of Soros ignorance
(or agenda) is this: "Markets are basically stable. What is not stable is
monetary policy. And it is faulty monetary policies that destabilize
economies. When the gold standard reigned supreme financial markets
never witnessed the kind of prolonged financial gyrations that we are
now experiencing. These wild fluctuations are basically caused by
constant changes, and anticipated changes, in money supplies, price
levels and exchange rates. Furthermore, banks unofficially going off the
gold standard by artificially lowering their interest rates through credit
expansion caused nineteenth century depressions. The roots of this
theory can be found in Ricardo and the Currency School. The Austrians
refined the theory and integrated it into capital theory. (Unfortunately,
the Austrian view has been successfully suppressed in Australia - and
not by the Left, who probably do not even know it exists)..." Gerard
Jackson, March 1997.

"Well said!

"Now, please refer to the two charts at the beginning of the report and
remember that it is both, in the interests of "today's" dollar bulls (or so
they think) as well as it is in the interests of today's commodity bulls
(dollar bears), to see to it that the Fed will lower interest rates soon.

"But the fact remains that it is in the Fed's interest to raise interest
rates high enough to prevent the inflation from spreading, now, while
inflation expectations are still in check. In our opinion, this is true
whether it is acknowledged or not. Unfortunately, Mr. Greenspan and
company cannot afford to do what they must to ensure the survival of
the Federal Reserve System, for it has got to be difficult for the man of
the decade to put everyone out of work in order to "prevent" the
otherwise inevitable currency / economic collapse."

Mr Gresham (12/04/00; 18:03:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42910)
Mr Moto's Money Report
http://www.piraz.com/wmre.htm
Not so inscrutable, our detective...


auspec (12/04/00; 17:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42909)
silvercollector
I bought silver in 1973 for approx $4.40 per oz but was not patient enough to hold for the homer. Big lesson in life. Have been closely following the supply/demand case for silver again since 93, and will simply hold for the inevitable price appreciation. Some things you just know, but you still have to have a degree of timing. Am prepared to buy silver at historic lows and hold throughout the decade if necessary {highly unlikely}. Not much timing required with this plan. You pay your money and take your chances. Your old grouchy photo guy is looking at the world through his personal microscope. Photography is a tremendous CONSUMER {as in gone} of silver in spite of the fact they recycle some. Best to you.

CoBra(too) (12/04/00; 17:44:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 42908)
ET - Re: Humor
... will extra-ordinarily haunt Terrestrials - IMHO and
cb2

ET (12/04/00; 16:28:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42907)
Humor
http://markpoyser.com/bartiromotalks/qg.htm

Yuk!

Journeyman (12/04/00; 16:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42906)
Poker, the gold standard, & unforgivable sins @Mr Gresham

Your last two posts have been on the mark from my viewpoint, Mr Gresham!

Poker, including much psychology in addition to symbolic content ("digital" cards), is probably the closest analog to markets -- though not THAT close. Of all professional casino gamblers, poker players have the most difficult time determining if they have an edge -- or, periodically, if they STILL have an edge.

Not surprisingly, they are the least secure of professional gamblers, and most subject to psychological ups and downs.

But when they destroyed the universal free-market derived gold standard, they forced nearly everyone to gamble just to maintain their "savings." To some degree, this condemned almost EVERYONE to be a gambler, if not in person, then by proxy, gambling on some fund manager's expertise.
Previously, you could just store up a few gold pieces and not worry. Thus a major real cost of ditching the gold standard is it has forced everyone to some extent to "live a counterfeit life" in thrall to one financial market or another -- including the insecurity and ruin sometimes inherent in that position. This is the sin for which "they" should be the most severely punished.

The other even worse sin is that "their" system passes the results and the debts, through the magic of governments' "national debts," on to the kids and the yet unborn.

Regards,
Journeyman


Mr Gresham (12/04/00; 15:52:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42905)
Journeyman
"The markets are games which are self-modifying. That is, you have to be where everyone else is going before they get there, and once enough people catch on to one tactic, it isn't profitable anymore and the next trend, a different one, is hatched. And this is all built on the vagaries of "real economy" supply and demand -- but that's becoming less and less a factor other than being one signal among the many which the players use to guide them. "

There's the rub, and you've here stated the dilemma.

Most useful things in life, we hope to learn -- once -- and then move on to other things, using our previous learning to build upon. And Life itself is a process of "Learning How to Learn." That is essential to being a growing human, rather than a stagnant lump.

But learning how to ace markets, as you've described, mimics and perhaps replaces Life itself. You can't just learn one useful system, and then move on to other areas of YOUR life, with your market wins supporting you. For the market writes a new game every couple years or so, therefore;\: (1) You have to make market study your Life's work, in order not to waste what you learned two years back, or fall behind others as quick and smart as you're trying to be (2) You have to learn it correctly and have dagnabbity good intuition, too, and (3) You may only land marginally within the 10% of winners after all that effort -- and not really earning a very good living.

(Gambling is easier, as you point out. They don't change Blackjack's rules or odds every few years.)

Living for the Market becomes a counterfeit life, unless that's all you care to do in your life.

FOA's words about gold and the end of the dollar are about the (temporary?) end of such gaming. All the games played out. Start over.

People around the world who've never gotten anywhere near our (abstract, derivative-driven) Market Games believe in gold, to be-jewel their daughters, and buy seed for their rice crops. That's something I'd trust more than the faces I see on those New York market minutes.



Journeyman (12/04/00; 14:58:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42904)
Can I win playing the futures market? @R Powell, Megatron, USAGOLD, Randy, ALL

"How many who own stocks do you think actually
researched the company they invested in? Or even know
what qualifications (if any) their fund manager has?"
-R Powell msg#: 42898

In my experience, not many. Columnist Vin Suprynowicz tells of
an office party where he asked two women about their investments.
They said they were guaranteed to go up. He asked them what they
meant by that. They said, and apparently weren't kidding, "If
they go down we'll return the stocks and get our money back." Of
course that was right around the time an "investor" won a suit
from a stock broker claiming the broker took advantage because he
(the "investor") didn't understand the risks and therefore they
should give him his money back. Appalling -- but this sort of
thing explains the Brown & Co. Brokerage commercials!

"The challange in commodities is to be in that 10% that
you speak of. With enough hard fundamental work
(research) and adequate knowledge of technical
analysis, do you think membership into that 10% is
possible?" -R Powell msg#: 42898

One of the hardest things in a professional gambler's
(investor's) life is determining whether or not you have an edge.
In many symbolic gambling games, the determination is fairly
straight-forward because, especially with the advent of high-
speed computers, it can be calculated or simulated. (Simulation
is fraught with dangers, however, even in simple games. One of
the main problems with wider use of simulators in other areas is
they all start with ASS-U-ME-tions.)

I'm am one of those outsiders that Megatron mentions as far as
derivatives are concerned. I read Teweles and Jones classic "The
Futures Game" about seven years ago and things like the
Hieronymous Study (posted in yesterday's msg#: 42825) pretty much
decided me that it would take too much time, energy, and practice
money to make playing that game interesting. AND it's one of
those games where it is VERY difficult to be sure you have an
edge -- you could play for years and discover you were only
fooling yourself.

Further, I have friends and acquaintences who, usually with the
aid of computers, regularly beat "The Vegas Line" (and the Vegas
bookies) on college and pro basketball, football, and baseball.

Several of these well-financed groups have looked at the stock
market and options and two groups set up shop to try out their
approach. They both lost money and quit. These are sharp
people, and if they were unable to come up with a winning
algorithim, I doubt that I could.

Of course, back in the seventies and early eighties, Prof. Edward
O. Thorpe, who wrote "Beat the Dealer," (how to beat the game of
21) in 1967, studied stocks and learned to "Beat the Market"
(another of his books, if I remember). He became one of the
upstart market makers during this period and was most resented by
the establishment. Don't know what he's been doing since then.

I and my friends have puzzled over the difficulty of beating
markets, peopled largely with folks like the two ladies above.
But of course the folks who move the markets are the quants, the
REALLY big players who run funds, etc. Folks like Scholes and
Merriwether (LTCM.) Or Soros. Part of the problems with playing
against these guys is they not only play the markets, they can
MOVE the markets to their advantage and everyone else's
detriment.

The markets are games which are self-modifying. That is, you
have to be where everyelse is going before they get there, and
once enough people catch on to one tactic, it isn't profitable
anymore and the next trend, a different one, is hatched. And
this is all built on the vagaries of "real economy" supply and
demand -- but that's becoming less and less a factor other than
being one signal among the many which the players use to guide
them. By "hatched" I don't mean it's created by one or two
players through a conspiracy, though sometimes it is. It's just
that "something in the air" causes enough big hitters to go in
the same direction at the same time.

Thus the rules are constantly shifting and to win long term, you
have to "catch" the majority of these shifts in time to not lose.
It's not "insider trading" in the legal sense (though remember
there is what they're now calling on CNBC "legal insider
trading"), but it's somewhat "inside" in that, perhaps like X,
the guy who used to handicap pro football, "they" develop a
"feel" for where the aggregate market players are going to go.

From my viewpoint, it's just too hard to be sure you still have
an edge to make me comfortable playing these games. Of course
investing for dividends is a different animal.

"To say that people should beware because the game is
costly for those unprepared is admirable. I wouldn't
say the game should not be played just because there
are more losers than winners, only one team of all who
make the NFL playoffs, wins the superbowl." -R Powell
msg#: 42898

I agree in general. But in a certain sense, casino gambling --
and sports betting -- are not only safer and simpler than futures
gambling, they are also more "honest." Unlike most futures
gamblers, while a casino gambler imagines he will make money, he
doesn't really expect to. He's not at the casino primarily to
make money. He doesn't expect to make money, and usually he
doesn't modify his life style based on his expectation that he
will make money.

People who go into the futures markets, however, have the
expectation they will make money and in most cases, that's why
they're there. And judging from the comments of several posters
here -- and studies like the Hieronymous Study, 90% of them are
deluding themselves, and if they expect to make money and change
their lives based on that perception, they may do themselves
long-term financial damage, not to mention long term mental
anguish. I beleive Canamami yesterday was one of those. As was
the gambler who wrote the following e-mail posted by DaveC
(12/02/00; 10:25:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 42688):

"And yes my gentle friends, the death is waiving its
evil vail in front of my eyes every time I look at the
streaming chart @ Quote.com. Just to say that because
of the unholly doings of the mighty Stock Market I had
to get a day job! The first in 2 years!! Can I live on
my savings? you may ask - NO, 'cause that's what I've
been doing for the past 8 months! and now... from
having $135,000 in January I went to living on
$2,000/month from the day job, with a $1,200 morgage &
a new BMW, all acquired in the .com explosion. Now, can
you say it's not death??!" -Day Trader Chat From Yahoo
Message Board, The Death came upon...., by: lolalita28
11/30/00 4:15 pm, Msg: 3 of 3

It is of course possible that some of the initial losers will
persevere and eventually join the 10% who are winners. No
problem if they can afford the time and money that education
costs them.

Of course, there will be some who are winners -- maybe. But I'd
like to see the stats of some of these long-term winning players.
I've seen too many people completely bamboozle themselves in my
life to take it on faith.

And given that your buying power has to be stored up somewhere -
- - - well, what are you doing here at this site??

"When POG adjusts higher, both physical holders and
futures' market players will dance together. IMHO, of
course." -R Powell msg#: 42898

Could be --- but do you know when? And will you be paid as per
the ORIGINAL contract? And will the dollars you're paid in in
lieu of the physical you may have been hoping for because "force
majuere" MAY HAVE been declared be an adaquate win after all the
time and money it's cost you to get into position?

I can't answer any of these questions, but I can suggest you
might want to ask them of yourself.

Regards,
Journeyman


Mr Gresham (12/04/00; 14:02:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42903)
Henri -- Turkey leftovers?
http://newsnet.reuters.com/news/rcom:old_general/nL04153703.html
Thanks for the link -- first I've read about Turkey's bank problems.

Always on the lookout for that CreditAnstalt moment... (and so is Greenie)


justamereBear (12/04/00; 13:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42902)
Rockgrabber 42843

You say ability, time, will, and understanding to live like that.

I suppose that we all have the same allotment of time in a day, so it becomes a matter of priorities, and since I want to spend my time on those things that are important to me, the will is part and parcel of that. I think ability has a small bit of validity, but in my experience, most people can accomplish almost anything they set their minds to. We have all heard stories of "low IQ" people who accomplished great things, so mostly I would see ability as patience and interest in a particular subject. In my own case I started out climbing the corpoate ladder from an accounting/computer base. Did pretty well at it too. Had a certain (major) distain for most things "artsy". 20 years ago I got interested in a subject that was only taught, in my area, at an art college. (hot glass) In the process, absorbed some art "through the skin", and now I am into some manifestations of "art", and now some people call me an artist.
Understanding, Yes, but often understanding comes after the fact, so it may not be a necessity.

An example; the latest Brou-ha-ha known as the US elections. If I were a US citizen, it wouldn't interest me much, because I know that no matter what the outcome, I would have about the same amount of money "stolen" from me, for about the same limited amount of services, and my life would be over-regulated to about the same extent. I would have an interest in HOW they managed this feat, but not the result.

That is because the massive forces at work, call it mother nature, or circumstances, or whatever, will prevail. The natural order of things is that we all die. Life consists of the daily putting off of the inevitable. Sure we have made great strides in medicine, which allows us to put off the inevitable for a time. Successful traders learn early that one trader cannot take on an large institution, and a large institution cannot win against a central bank, who in turn cannot overcome the broad marketplace. I think Journeyman might phrase it, "you cannot sucessfully buck the odds, indefinitely." (you can only win consistantly by choosing to fight on only those battlegrounds where you are likely to win, and refusing other battles)

I'm with silverCollecter when he says maybe we should be concerned with global nervousness. I usually call it confidence. Black Blade has some posts today, and often, that approach life in a way that I see as important. Sure he has an interest in "petroleum man", but he uses that interest to predict the ripple effect of, in this instance, the price of natural gas and how that will effect life, which in turn will ultimately effect the economy, which will in turn effect eg, the POG. To some extent we all struggle in this direction, but some seem more successful at it than others. I think that is why so many people find his posts interesting. The logic of his pronostications on the future seem to be based on things we instictively know to be powerful, and valid. Maybe his logic was faulty, or maybe he did not consider one or another influence, and his projections may not work out, but we can see the validity of this particular influence.

In my mind, one of the nicest complements ever paid me was to the effect that this person liked spending time with me because, "while you know where the mainstream is, mostly you choose not to be there."
One cannot really predict the future of the ecomony by watching the stock market. The market is a lagging indicator. Stock prices go up and down AFTER people have formed an opinion about the future, (and how the will allocate their assets) which is usually after they have seen evidence that the economy is going up or down. Today the early indicaters are saying that people are uneasy, and christmas sales are likely to be down. The economy is sputtering, and what is happening to stock prices? They are going down. I like to get back to the very basics, what are the forces at work, and what is their magnitude, so I can predict a probable ripple effect outcome. To do that, one has to stop watching the market, except as a confirmation of your forecast as to what will happen next, and get back to the simple things like mother nature, and the forces at work.

I suppose that is why I enjoy travelling through some of the stranger highways and byways of life. You get a much closer look at the soft underbelly of the world. And you gain insights as to why things work the way they do.

Regards
j'Bear



Mr Gresham (12/04/00; 13:30:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 42901)
Journeyman: Gambling
I've seen it written that blackjack is the only game with a possible edge, and then only if they can't tell you're counting (so you have to throw some back to them) and if you get your betting progressions right. Long, hard work. Me, I can't stand to be around all that smoke.

Can you tell me why in Poker, the person with the biggest pot o' dough can't just raise everyone else into folding?

The only winning system I tried was in horses, which a professor in Vancouver developed. You'd play against crowd psychology (and the track's 18% vig) by assuming their research on the likely Win was correct, but if ratios for Show and occasionally Place were over a certain level, you'd run to the window and bet against the crowd's UNDERselection of those choices. About three races in nine qualified. I made $35 one day, $50 another. Boring.

I'm not a gambler. (Except just by living, like all of us.)

Oh, yeah, and one time with silver futures from the fraudulent "American Board of Trade" (up in Al F's neck of the woods, Al -- are you OK?). As I was driving cross-country to move West in 1984, stopping at pay phones to meet my margin calls. Yecch! Minus 4-5000 only.

Can anyone tell me that the first time they learned about OPTIONS, part of them did not think "Oh boy! Leverage is the EASY way to make money. How CLEVER I am, getting ahead of the pack this way!" I think that's the hook that gets everyone. Irresistable, for awhile.

Nothing to do with Saving, or Wealth. Merely paying for entertainment, once you do the Math.





wolavka (12/04/00; 13:03:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42900)
old boys
should start to enter the gold market tonite and tomorrow.

wolavka (12/04/00; 12:51:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 42899)
dollar indes
Those criminals on the floor, I thought the dxh would hit 113.00 today, what creeps

R Powell (12/04/00; 12:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42898)
Rockgrabber/ Journeyman

Mine hand is up too. Long in silver, corn and cotton also.
Mr. Journeyman, you're right in thinking there are many who should not gamble in Vegas casinos or in commodity options or in equities markets. Very few who do really know what's going on, especially in the stock market. How many who own stocks do you think actually researched the company they invested in? Or even know what qualifications (if any) their fund manager has? The challange in commodities is to be in that 10% that you speak of. With enough hard fundamental work (research) and adequate knowledge of technical analysis, do you think membership into that 10% is possible?
To say that people should beware because the game is costly for those unprepared is admirable. I wouldn't say the game should not be played just because there are more losers than winners, only one team of all who make the NFL playoffs, wins the superbowl.
When POG adjusts higher, both physical holders and futures' market players will dance together. IMHO, of course.
Rich


Henri (12/04/00; 12:23:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42897)
No panic in the streets of Turkey...yet
http://newsnet.reuters.com/news/rcom:old_general/nL04153703.html
Hmmm..This looks like a partial strain on IMF funds, I wonder which peg will fall next?

SHIFTY (12/04/00; 12:21:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42896)
Randy
I saw those little snow men with a real blizzard going on in the background.There nice but too small. Put your mittens on and go for a Big One! (Big Smile)

$hifty

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/04/00; 12:19:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 42895)
From our live news feed at the Daily Market Report page
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20001204/news/current/tice.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
Market commentator David Tice provides a good reality check at CBS.MarketWatch today.

He writes, "...it must be awfully tempting for investors to see their former tech favorites selling for what appear to be bargain prices. But before blindly buying the dip, investors should at least consider that the worst might not yet be over. To assist with that exercise, the following bearish points are presented:"

HEADLINE: Ten bearish points Wall Street won't tell you

You'll want to visit this link to scan this overview. Here is point #10 to whet your appetite:

10. "The end of a mania typically results in investors giving back much of their gains. If we are correct in calling the stock market of late a true "mania" (as opposed to a cyclical bull market), the downside from here could be much greater than most investors expect."

Thanks for the good work, David.

Randy

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/04/00; 12:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 42894)
SHIFTY's suggestion
"The gift page is beautifully done. Makes it look a bit drab around here though. Maybe you can find something for the roundtable?"

What?? I suffer frozen hands building two nice snowmen to greet you at the top of the page, and you insist on more? <grin>

OK. I will reach into Santa's bag of goodies and see if I can manage to hang a bell (or something else appropriate) under our bright blue sky...that is, if it is generally felt by those gathered here that I am capable of doing such a task objectively and without selling my soul or tossing my principles into a Dumpster brand waste disposal unit. (I ask this, though I trust that one certain poster's recent vocal outbursts of youthful ignorance, inexperience, and arrogance are not expressive of the commonly-held perceptions of my role here, and particularly of the validity of the information I bring forward.)

Randy

Rockgrabber (12/04/00; 11:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42893)
Raise your hand if you are long Paper Gold Derivitives
I have to admit, I must raise my hand.

Peter Asher (12/04/00; 10:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42892)
Shifty
Affirmative, pretty gruesome.

Just been announced that The US supremes sent the Case back to the Florida Court for "further proceedings"


Journeyman (12/04/00; 10:45:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42891)
More on gold losses, futures and gambling @Megatron, goldhunter, Randy, ALL

If you're going to tell me I'm making a gambling, ah, that is "investment" error, tell me ahead of time. I don't need to know what I SHOULD have done -- even an about-to-retire politician or bureaucrat can tell me that!

Give me some market records of what happened over the last twenty years and I'll show you how you could have started with one dollar and run it up to a trillion or two!

The problem is anticipating the future successfully -- and Yogi and Mises not withstanding, doing so AHEAD OF TIME. AND not making the mistake of assuming that just because it happened that way last time, it will continue to happen that way now. (It COULD of course!)

Gambling is ALWAYS a matter of PERCIEVED PROBABILITIES. If there are any exceptions to this, it's in purely symbolic games like card games, craps, or roulette where all the outcomes are "digital" and relatively limited in comparison to the virtually unlimited outcomes in the "real world" casinos. Thus, if you know what you're doing, it's much safer to gamble in the casino than in the markets.

None the less even in the safety of casino gambling there are "externalities." There are biased roulette wheels and there are marked cards and loaded dice. There are casinos who don't have enough money to cash in your winning chips.

Megatron, in your assumptions that people who bought and held gold lost, you're making many subliminal sub-assumptions. Let me suggest a few of them:

1. People will sell their gold now. (They need not, in comparison to futures players who have a time limit and thus their anticipations of the future must include correct timing.)

2. Additionally you are assuming gold is destined to continue to drop in price (below the cost of production by the way) and so it would be BETTER if the gold holders sold NOW. (If you're holding options, do you give up and ditch them anytime the trend line goes against you? Then again, you're up against that time limit, and infact that plays a much stronger role in options prices than in holding the underlying doesn't it?)

3. And more importantly, you're assumning that a futures player has made all the right moves over the last twenty years, that is, that the futures player has an edge, even after subtracting the "vig" (the cost of making his bets). That is, over all those trades, forced by expiration deadlines, your are assuming the futures player has had and maintained an edge for twenty years -- including paying the vig. And all the taxes -- if you volunteer to pay them.

The fact that he risks only a small portion of his bankroll on any trade is good but not sufficient -- a punter (gambler) who bets this way against the house edge in, say, roulette will go broke more slowly than one who bets a large percentage of his bank roll at a time -- but he'll still go broke. (An interesting view: Casino bets, like futures bets, all have expiration dates. Particularly they expire at the end of each event -- the ball stops in double-zero, the dealer takes his last hit card, etc.)

Our propensity to fool ourselves is boundless. An older friend of mine, let's call him "Jerome," was completely sure he had an edge using a betting progression vs. roulette. He'd thought it over and over and no matter how I tried to explain it to him, it was subtle enough that he could insist I was wrong. He wasn't the first. About 30 years ago, the guy who inadvertantly got me involved in gambling did so by showing me a very similar progression. It took me several days to understand and explain why it wouldn't work -- and he didn't believe me either --- BECAUSE IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO RUN INTO THE STRING OF EVENTS THAT WIPES YOU OUT. That is, you can play this progression for a long time, apparently winning, before you have to bet so much you lose everything, including your original bank roll.

A successful punter in any game must have an edge, and often even folks who think in terms of "perceived edge" discover in retrospect the "perceived edge" doesn't really exist in reality.

Which brings me to record keeping. These are a major tool to keep us from fooling ourselves. Do you have comprehensive records of your futures plays, Megatron? I don't say this to be cruel, and, I suspect, if you have been successful long term, you can tell me such things as what your total win over your carreer is, what your total carreer action has been (the total of all your futures bets) and thus, what your over-all edge has been. Also you can probably tell me how much you've paid in "vig." Actually, I'm not asking. I would be interested in your overall edge, however?? That wouldn't reveal your more sensitive figures -- which could come back to haunt you in an audit.

Show me a gambler who doesn't keep meticulous records and I'll show you a gambler who turns out either a loser or a drop-out, depending whether or not his perceived edge is real or not. Jerome claimed he was winning for several years. One day I asked him why he still had his day job and he finally confessed. He'd lost big. Why he lost is clear; the house has an edge in roulette.

One reason why even a gambler with an edge often drops-out if he doesn't keep records is because he won't ever reach the point where he KNOWS his perceived edge is real (an edge is usually quite small and subtle and fluctuations, especially large and "unusual" ones will devestate him emotionally.) If one big one happens early in a carreer, it it's downwards, this wipes the less experienced out emotionally. We need all the help we can get in dealing with this.

(On the other hand and worse, if it's an unusual UPWARD fluctuation -- and he/she DOESN'T have an edge, it sometimes takes abject poverty over extended periods of time to correct the mistake.)

But some of the real questions for futures punters is "Will the casinos you play in either 1. Change the rules on you mid-stream, 2. Will there be a problem when you go to the cage to cash out your chips. And if paid honestly, 3. will the dollars you get paid in depreciate so much they wipe out all your previous wins (in terms of reduced buying power)?

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Megatron, don't mean to put you on the spot. You're, in my opinion, a valuable contributer here and I don't want to make you uncomfortable. On the other hand, if you've been following the forum for awhile, you know it includes many of the 90% who shouldn't be playing -- and they have been suffering. I owe it to them to try and help them sort this out if I can. Your posts gave me the excuse! Thanx!!


Henri (12/04/00; 10:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42890)
Mr Gresham -Glad I run on nuclear energy
Yes, I have electric resistance Heat and the associated rate. Limerick has both units crackling away just up the street (downwind and at least 10 miles as the crow flies). I rarely use the resistance bank though...the heat pump works well with my abundant insulation down to 20 degrees at which time (yes now) my healthy woodstove supplies enough supplemental heat to keep the place cozy. Healthy woodstove? The draw of a small quantity of fresh air through the garage door from the flue keeps my radon levels way down.

SHIFTY (12/04/00; 10:14:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42889)
Peter Asher
Did you get my re-e-mail?

$hifty

Peter Asher (12/04/00; 09:52:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42888)
Long Term

Whatever energy source is the shortage of the week, each one puts pressure on the supply of the others as users seek the cheaper alternative. Industrial users look for conversion options, and residential consumers eventually ‘shop with their feet' by relocating to warmer (or hydro- electric) climes.

Telecommuting will expand exponentially as fuel for travel is shed and the home space that is heated by day when vacant, becomes used instead of the heated (or air-conditioned) office. Expansion of B to B and drop shipping of online retail, cuts down on heated warehouse space, propane for fork lifts etc. While some E-commerce has been market saturated, there will be a second wave of expansion as society turns to the Web for energy-free functions and alternatives.

"Necessity is the mother of invention" because necessity motivates change.

Meanwhile, on the supply front, wind generation is now cost competitive and the current 1% now being supplied is expected to soon double. Both administrations are strongly in favor of tax incentives to build facilities. That figure could now be exceeded as peoples resistance to "unsightly" wind mill farms should melt away as the energy price explosion alters their relative importances.

Having said all that, it seems at the present moment that the NG crises could be the trigger for the bursting of the Market, Debt and Dollar bubbles




Mr Gresham (12/04/00; 09:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42887)
Cavan Man: PEI
http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtml
Cavan Man, I would say "Don't miss PEI", but it's been 20 years since my fond memories were formed. Family connections helped. Saw a church built by my great-great-grandfather. Headstones a-many. My grandfather still owned a lot in Summerside into the 30's. One of my fantasies is to visit and find it was never transferred, just forgotten, and now it's mine! It helps to think of us as still Canadian, at certain sometimes, eh?

Some commodities action, huh? I'm gonna go downstairs and turn off the gas heater, right now. It's the orange juice that's gonna bankrupt me, however. I'm really spoiled over that fresh stuff.

Why couldn't TPTB have targeted NG or PD or OJ or something besides AU? Always standing last in line, it feels like.




Tom (12/04/00; 09:34:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 42886)
(No Subject)
NG HAULTED bacause of LIMIT UP!!!

SHIFTY (12/04/00; 09:14:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 42885)
Randy(@ the tower)
The gift page is beautifully done. Makes it look a bit drab around here though. Maybe you can find something for the roundtable?
:-)
$hifty

Henri (12/04/00; 09:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42884)
Cavan Man's trip to Nova Scotia
My wife, kids and I spent an enjoyable week in PEI and NS this past summer. Since we were camping, I can't give you a list of reco'd accommadations, however; I can tell you what we found there. We left Maine for Fredericton, NB where I had business and then traveled to PEI across the bridge. It was summer and we did visit Cavendish beach. Although both categories of scenary were attractive I much prefer a summer day on the New Jersey shore for bikini peeking. (Slap to the head from my wife). From PEI we traveled back through N.B. and drove to the Joggins Cliffs for some fossil hunting. This was a childhood fantasy of mine that I finally fulfilled. I was rewarded by finding two large fossilized tree trunks (some kind of fern things I guess but two distinctly different types. Alas they were too large to carry. We then took a drive west to Cape Chignecto where we visited some local shellfish (lobster & scallop)fishermen who were particularly peeved at the Provincial govt for raising the licence fees for scalloping by some 600%. The trip along the harbor in the morning found fishing boats aground at low tide and the same boats afloat around early afternoon. It made for some great Bay of Fundy camera shots. First there is no water, then there is. Our morning was spent high atop the viewpoint overlooking the tidal race near the lighthouse. Wow, you can just feel the surge of power there as the tide wraps around the cape. Impressive! As the tide was turning we had ventured out into some shallow sea caves below the point. We were impressed with the speed at which the tide rose and a mad scramble ensued over slippery seaweed covered rocks to get back to the beach before we became trapped there. Great heart pumping excitement and action for the kids. We can all swim but the water was a bit cool. Short on time we then traveled back up to NB and home. The ferry fare being too dear for a run to Yarmouth via Halifax. Gold wise, I believe the headquarters for Scotia bank of Scotia-Mocatta fame is there. Would have loved to travel to cape Breton Highlands though with sad regret we mosey'd back home to the Philadelphia area. Highly reco NS as a sight seeing venue. Visited Peggy's Cove (fantastic rocks for kids to play with)below Halifax when I was a child with my family as my Mom was an artist of sorts and had to do a pilgrimage to the lighthouse there. It was then that my childhood heart was broken when we realized how far it was to the Joggins cliffs and didn't get there. We rode across form Portsmouth to Yarmouth on the old "Bluenose" when rates were a bit more affordable.

Rockgrabber (12/04/00; 08:59:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42883)
When was the last time NG went limit up?
I see NYMEX has halted NG trading. I love it!!

Black Blade (12/04/00; 08:25:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 42882)
NG Higher
http://www.crbindex.com/curquote/crbquote.mhtml
NG still moving higher

Natural Gas 7.35 +0.677 +10.15 %
Heating Oil 1.0115 +0.0407 +4.19 %
Crude Oil 32.65 +0.63 +1.97 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.831 +0.0067 +0.81 %


PM's still holding in positive territory

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/04/00; 08:01:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42881)
SHIFTY, thanks for the comments yesterday...
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html
"I was looking around the site tonight and noticed the Christmas decorations on the home page. Well done!"

If you liked the current festive look of the Home Page, you will surely like the link above in which we pulled out all the stops...complete with a holly background.

And anyone visiting our Daily Market Report (w/ Live News) page will get a nice flavor of the holiday season, too!

Simply click the link at the top of this page that resembles this:

(Daily Market Report)

or else paste this URL into your browser's address window for the latest currency, economy, and precious metals news around the clock...

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/04/00; 07:51:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 42880)
It has everything to do with shoes ...
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2000/12/04/158.html
Megatron, I would like to offer a counterpoint thought to your comment yesterday in which you concluded, " A person who made 5 cents since 1980 in futures is ahead of ANYONE who bought and held gold."

A common misconception, and such a false sense of security can arise for ANYONE who fails to appreciate that the world is larger than the geographic area one is shown during any given American weather forecast. Very often, perspectives regarding "ahead" and "behind" is dictated by the shoes being worn, and which trail is being traveled (and for which reason.) Look here for a clear demonstration of this principle from today's Associated Press...
---
HEADLINE: Ukraine Expects 25 Percent Inflation

KIEV, Ukraine - The Ukrainian government expects that annual inflation this year will significantly exceed its previous forecast of 15.9 percent but will not pass 25 percent, a top government official said Monday. . . . . Annual inflation in Ukraine has fallen sharply since 1994, when it skyrocketed to more than 10,000 percent.
---
I trust my point requires no further elaboration than that.

Hard assets...Easy access (12/04/00; 07:26:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42879)
Dutch Kings, Swedish Kronors, and Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
Be sure to check out the latest special on-line offer we launched late last week (see link above). Our featured Coin of the "Month" (our previous Swiss offer sold out in only two weeks!) is the rare Swedish 20 Kronor gold coin featuring Oscar II, a talented ruler who was both a writer and a musician. This is the very first time Centennial has offered this hefty gold coin. Tipping the scales at an impressive 0.2593 troy ounces of fine gold content, these brilliant uncirculated specimens are not only beautiful to behold, they are veritable "manhole covers" among their smaller brethren of European pre-1933 gold coinage.

And not to be missed is our *FLASH* offer of Dutch Kings. These handsome Ten Guilder gold coins from The Netherlands feature the more rare King Willem, and will make a nice companion to the more common 10 Guilder Dutch Queens (Wilhemina) that you probably already own in your gold portfolio. They make a nice memento from the same country that brought us the lasting lesson of the Tulipmania.

These uncirculated Dutch Kings are priced to move for this FLASH offer, so act quickly to buy one or buy them all--Centennial has secured a small cache of 500, and we have clientele capable of buying the whole offer should they so choose. Given all that, these Dutch coins are likely to be "Here today...gone in a FLASH!"

Orders will be filled first come, first served on both offers. Feel free to mix and match!

Rockgrabber (12/04/00; 07:26:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 42878)
The dollar is starting to bleed pretty good
Dollar is down over a cent this morning. YES! I have not seen the dolar under 114 for a while but do see it right now.

Randy (@ The Tower) (12/04/00; 07:17:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42877)
A new addition to the Gilded Opinion is available for your review and consideration!
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/vanEedenGold.html
Courtesy of author Paul van Eeden and theMiningweb.com, we are pleased to bring you this commentary, "Understanding Gold" which we hope you will find useful in building better perspectives for the positive investment potential to be found within the gold market. Click the link above to see the whole article. A brief glimpse of what you will find there is as follows...

"Understanding the gold price, why it is where it is, why it declined by 40% from February 1996 to August 1999, why the gold industry got slaughtered and why the hedge funds made out like bandits, requires us to look at several aspects of gold and the gold market.

"As you will see there is no conspiracy against gold. The major decline in the gold price did not occur because of central bank sales or producer hedging, as many people believe. Instead, a proper analysis of the gold market, and an understanding of foreign exchange markets with the role played by derivatives, sheds light on the real factors that determine the gold price.

"These are not necessarily complicated matters as even enormous markets yield to basic economic principles. The research that underlies this article shows [among others] that:

* gold is money, it always has been and furthermore, gold has not lost its value as store of wealth

* if the dollar devalues, as this paper suggests it will, the dollar denominated gold price should soar

"...It is obvious that the physical gold market is absolutely dwarfed by the size of the derivatives market for gold. It is logical and inevitable that the derivatives market, not the physical market, determines the price of gold. The key to understanding the gold price is to understand what drives the price of gold in the derivatives market."

Black Blade (12/04/00; 07:14:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 42876)
Petroleum on the move!
NG still going up!

Natural Gas 7.23 +0.557 +8.35 %
Heating Oil 1.005 +0.0342 +3.52 %
Crude Oil 32.4 +0.38 +1.19 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.831 +0.0067 +0.81 %




Black Blade (12/04/00; 06:48:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 42875)
India's November Gold Demand up 5%


Singapore (Platts)--1Dec2000

Gold demand in India for November was up about 5% at 10.5mt, compared with 10mt in November 1999, a Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) official said Dec 1. "Demand has been fairly stable in the past weeks due to wedding festivities," an Indian trader said. But the trader expects demand to fall from mid-December to January 2001. "Indian demand is affected by seasonal factors and religious beliefs," the BBA official said.

The country's total gold demand in January-September stood at 622.9mt, down 5% from 655.4mt in the same period 1999. "There has been major droughts this year, farmers do not have surplus to invest in gold," the BBA official added. But the trader expects retailers to start stocking up soon for the upcoming active season from January-March 2001.

Black Blade: No woman is going to turn down gold! Love that wedding season.


Pandagold (12/04/00; 06:42:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42874)
Praise be to God

"Gold is pale because
it has so many thieves
plotting against it"

(Diogenes)

I guess 'they' did read my posting. They did not knock it down (yet), they actually let it go up. So they do have a human touch. Then it could be a mere cruel sense of humour. God is a bit that way, at times. O0-oops, perhaps it is God' or is it that they actually believe THEY ARE God.

There is so much we don't know, and never will. Perhaps it's as well. Let us be thankful for small mercies (but pray for BIG ones and chant our mantras)

Black Blade (12/04/00; 06:40:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42873)
PGM's look red hot now
Now that we solidly went through Pd at $850.00 with such ease, perhaps Pd at $990.00+ wouldn't be so difficult, and Pt at $750.00. I wonder how SWC and PAL with do today? There are no more coming out of Russia for a very long time, maybe years! Gold and Silver got to be under pressure, and difficult for the Bullion Bankers to keep under much longer, especially with the severe pressure on the US Dollar (soon to be peso-ized!).

DaveC (12/04/00; 06:36:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42872)
Nat gas Up about 8% this morning (again)
It's cold in them there hills.


Black Blade (12/04/00; 06:34:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42871)
DJ Platinum Grp Metals Hit Highs; Further Gains Likely
Source: Dow Jones

By Jamie McGeever

Of Dow Jones Newswires

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Boosted by a flurry of buying ahead of the holiday season and potential supply disruptions from Russia, platinum and palladium are trading at fresh highs in Europe Monday, and could sail further into uncharted waters as the session progresses, observers say. Not wanting to be caught short of material over the Christmas and New Year period, industrial users, mainly auto companies and electronics manufacturers, have been forced to scramble for material in recent days as prices have started to rocket. And together with the apparent return of speculative players and lack of ready sellers, further gains are likely. "It's been last minute Christmas shopping from the industrials ahead of possible supply problems from our Russian friends," said Ross Norman, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. Russia is the world's number one palladium producer and second largest platinum producer.

At the Monday morning fixing in London, platinum came in at $623 a troy ounce, a 12.5-year high, while palladium was fixed at an all-time high of $875/oz. Current spot prices show that platinum has edged up to $625/oz, considered a tough resistance level, and palladium to $880/oz. A convincing break through these levels at the afternoon fixing in London Monday could spark another price spiral upward. "The PM fix will be very, very interesting," said Norman, noting that the vast bulk of European PGM trade goes through the daily afternoon fixings. "The PGMs continue to soar and (are) likely to go further," said Rhona O'Connell, analyst at Canaccord Capital in adaily research note Monday. Market sources say platinum could test its 20-year high of $850/oz, while palladium could reach $1,000/oz in a matter of days or even hours.

Japanese Selling Possible, But No Collapse Seen

Until last week, the rise in prices had been steady, in part due to the gradual withdrawal of speculators following the imposition earlier this year of trading restrictions on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and New York Mercantile Exchange futures markets. But the sharp climb in the last week has led some to believe that speculators may be returning. "I'd be very surprised if it was the industrials themselves pushing it (the price) up to these levels on their own," said a precious metals strategist in London.

Japanese investors on Tocom still hold a large platinum long position of around 350,000 ounces, around half what it was only a few months ago. More stale long liquidation is likely, especially with the yen weakening to Y112 against the dollar Friday for the first time since August last year, but there are others keen to add to these positions. "I don't see any large-scale or net selling until prices stabilize," said the precious metals strategist, echoing Norman's belief that some profit taking won't be enough to precipitate a collapse in prices. Other than the Japanese stale longs or players hoping to take profits quickly, there are few obvious selling sources. Russian platinum stocks are thought to be extremely low, miners in the world's number one platinum producer South Africa are running at full capacity, and there is even talk that heavy rains in the Johannesburg region have hampered output in recent weeks.

Black Blade: What have I been telling ya? Russian stockpiles are low? - Try non-existent!


wolavka (12/04/00; 05:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42870)
DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
DUBYA, DUBYA DUBYA DUBYA, DUMP THE DOLLAR, BUY GOLD

Belgian (12/4/2000; 5:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 42869)
What if......
....the currency war succeeds in : 1 US$ = 1 EURO = 100 YEN
POG looses dollar decline support. More mines go bust. Gold must be heavely promoted and supply/demand balanced.
Today only 40% of total mining is profitable.

silvercollector (12/4/2000; 4:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 42868)
Thanks auspec
I have read Mr. Butler's articles; he is very bullish on silver but is he correct?

Yes I am purchasing silver (and a little gold) these days because I believe that they are undervalued. I suppose many others are buying due to lack of supply, ie: supply/demand deficits.

I frequent a few photography outlets (business related but not in a photographic sense) and I met a cagey and old cranky character a couple months ago. Apparently he lost his shirt during the '80's and '90's speculating in silver.
I feel he was in bad timing but he maintains the recycling of the silver processing solution and the digital process will keep silver contained for a long time.

In 1998 and 1999 I bought a significant amount of gold. I guess I was a 'goldcollector' but one thing that concerns me is that gold is not consumed and I am a little (maybe moderately) concerned about confiscation if gold were to explode. After the Y2K rollover I switched to silver, it I believe has the exact opposite concerns mentioned above.

In either case, gold or silver, there seems to be alot of conflicting information regarding inventories. From my previous post, maybe the inventories are not a huge concern. Perhaps one should be more concerned with the global nervousness and WOW, NG breaks $7.00 (compliments of BB this am).

SC

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 4:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42867)
A bit more lively since this report came out this morning
Source: BridgeNews
By Mari Iwata and Polly Yam, BridgeNews

Tokyo--Dec. 4--Spot gold was supported by the strength of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar Monday in Asia in moderate trading, dealers said. Gold is expected to consolidate in the range of U.S. $268-272 per ounce in the near term, with market sentiment turning marginally bullish. Platinum and Palladium prices stood steady in quiet trading. The strength of the Australian dollar against the greenback triggered buying of gold by Australian sources despite of selling by other Asia-based players, dealers in Hong Kong said. The selling was not aggressive, they added. Gold prices moved at a range of $269.50-270.50 per ounce for much of Asian trading, according to dealers. As gold prices have stayed around $270 over the past few days, some players turned to be slightly bullish on gold prices in the near term, dealers noted. Other bullion players, however, continued to be afraid that selling by central banks and producers will still cap price rises, they added.

Although platinum and palladium futures of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rose to hit their daily limit ups Monday, trading in the spot market remained thin, dealers in Hong Kong said. In Japan, spot platinum and palladium rose on light buying by Japanese players Monday after surging last week caused by fears of Russia's shaky supplies, spot Japanese dealers told. "For Russia's supplies, no Japanese buyers have so far heard of any information about 2001 shipment under long-term contract," an analyst in Japan said.
TOCOM participants bought TOCOM platinum futures aggressively Monday on strong spot prices, TOCOM dealers said. Some of the TOCOM participants rushed to cover part of their platinum short positions and opened fresh long positions, they noted. TOCOM palladium also rose to reflect strong prices in the spot market, they said, while trading of the futures remained thin.


Black Blade (12/4/2000; 4:30:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 42866)
RE: Topaz
G'day Mate! Don't despair, Au is getting a bit frisky this morning too. Looks like a rough start for Goldman's, JP Morgan, and Duestche Bank. S&P Futures have gone negative along with the other indices. The Euro is chasing the US Dollar and even the Canadian Peso lower. Gold is also being chased higher now up +$2.70. Getting very testy prior to the open. The Working Groups on Financial Markets (PPT) have their work cut out for them today. Today could be the day that the PM's break loose and fly.

beesting (12/4/2000; 4:18:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 42865)
Thanks for the encouragement Sir Belgian.
http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=EUR&t=USD
Hope I'm not the only one writing letters to fund managers today...Reference posts # 42818 & 42819...Sorry about the double post.

It looks like from the above URL U.S. dollars are being exchanged for Euro's in a big way, at this hour.(up about 4 cents) Isn't this what FOA/ANOTHER predicted?
One ounce Gold is now $306.61 in Euro's.
We watch together.....beesting.

wolavka (12/4/2000; 4:12:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42864)
What's so hard?
Dollar headed for 113.
Don't forget to throw some gold coins in the red buckets.
April gold 300
no advice,
have a nice day.

Topaz (12/4/2000; 4:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 42863)
Black Blade
Yeah yeah! I just KNOW you're loaded up on PGM's.
While I sit here glaring contemptuously at my little pile of Au-n-Ag. "DO SOMETHING YOU MOTHERS" I scream!
Think I'll go and kick the Dog!

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 3:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 42862)
Watch the Shorts go for Cover!
Pd is now up +50.00 at $870.00, and Au is getting a bit lively - now +$2.10.

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 3:57:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42861)
State Shaken by Natural Gas Price Explosion

Utilities: Residential bills jumped 50% in November, with more hikes expected. Businesses fare even worse.

By NANCY RIVERA BROOKS, Times Staff Writer

California's summertime electricity blues have given way to a winter of energy discontent as the biggest natural gas bills in recent memory begin landing in mailboxes around the state. Consumers are being hit with increases on their November gas bills of 50% on average, with heftier bills expected for December and January. Businesses have been slammed even harder. It already is worse than predicted; in the last few days the state's three big gas utilities have boosted their estimates of just how bloated average winter natural gas bills will become. And it could get worse still, particularly if the weather turns colder than forecast.

Michael and Mary Berbae were stunned when they opened the gas bill for their Dana Point condo last week: It soared by 128% from the month before--and they were out of the country much of the time. "Thank God I know how to make a good martini," quipped Michael Berbae, a floral designer. "You have to do something to keep your sense of humor."

Business owners are faced with either absorbing the higher costs or passing them on to consumers through price hikes. "It has been a horrible energy year," said Jim Stephenson, vice president of finance for Clougherty Packing Co., which produces Dodger Dogs and other Farmer John brand meats at a landmark mural-covered factory in Vernon. "We're trying to hold the line on prices, but it's very difficult" because the company's energy costs have doubled, he said. Blame it on a big jump in the wholesale price of natural gas, a commodity that was partly deregulated a decade ago without the anguish seen recently in the electricity industry. A similar supply-and-demand crunch, compounded by a deadly pipeline explosion in August, has reached this once-cheap commodity. As a result, natural gas bills are soaring because retail rates are no longer controlled by regulators. Some argue that it shows the free market's failure. Allegations of market abuse are flying. "The rates are incredible. We're seeing a real failure in the deregulation of the gas transmission system," said Michael Shames, executive director of the Utility Consumers' Action Network. The San Diego-based watchdog group has been a vocal critic of electricity deregulation, and with natural gas rates following in the footsteps of last summer's electricity spikes, "I feel like a broken record already," Shames said.

Seventy percent of the energy used in the average California home is natural gas, and more than 90% of the homes in the state are heated with natural gas. Commercial and industrial customers use even more natural gas than residential customers. On a typical residential bill, the cost of natural gas itself accounts for about one-third of the total. The rest is composed of charges for long-distance transmission, local distribution and metering, among other things. Southern California Gas, Pacific Gas & Electric and San Diego Gas & Electric don't profit from the higher price of natural gas, they merely bill users for the price they paid. That price has leaped during the last several weeks. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for January delivery hit a record $6.73 per million British thermal units on Thursday before settling at $6.589 per million BTU--more than double the price a year ago.

But the price that most of California's industrial and commercial users pay--the price for natural gas at the California border--has jumped as much as sixfold in the last year. In the last few days, gas at the California-Arizona border has traded at unprecedented levels, above $20 per million BTU, compared with about $3 per million BTU a year ago.

Some of the price increase was expected because the supply of natural gas has lagged behind the demand, thanks to the booming economy and the heavy use last summer by California power plants, nearly all of which burn natural gas. In addition, an explosion in August along a major New Mexico pipeline supplying California, run by El Paso Natural Gas, killed 12 people and sharply reduced supplies to California for several weeks.

There also have been allegations of market abuse. The California Public Utilities Commission has accused El Paso Natural Gas of driving up prices by withholding capacity on the pipeline, the result of a contract awarding a large portion of the pipeline's capacity to an affiliate company, El Paso Merchant Energy. Houston-based El Paso, in filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has denied the allegations. Utilities have been warning customers through advertisements and mailings to expect to pay more this winter, promoting level pay plans and weatherization programs to help ease the blow. But even the best estimates by the utilities have fallen short as natural gas costs have continued to surge.

Southern California Gas Co., a subsidiary of San Diego-based Sempra Energy, had been telling customers that a typical monthly residential bill would rise to about $70 this winter from about $50 last winter. The utility this week bumped the winter estimate up to about $80 a month. Similarly, SDG&E raised its estimate to the low $70s, and PG&E residential customers are looking at about $77. Bills in the rest of the country are also on the rise, though not as sharply as in California. Still, natural gas residential bills in the Midwest will average $163 a month this winter, up 44% from last winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Chula Vista retirees Jim and Beverly Tesh, who endured a summer of shocking electricity bills in the nation's first fully deregulated power market, tried to control their gas bill by shivering, then donning extra sweaters before finally firing up their furnace on Nov. 20. "All of a sudden reality comes along and it spanks you," said Jim Tesh, who estimates that his gas costs have doubled since the beginning of the year. "Our first concern was electricity, and now we find gas is consuming us," said Tesh, 70, who dreams of installing a solar-powered system for all of his household's energy needs. "Right now, it doesn't pencil out, but there is an aspect of being able to thumb your nose at the powers that be that I find very appealing." High gas prices also are helping to keep the price of electricity up in California.

Swollen natural gas bills on top of huge electricity tabs are causing a budget crisis among big commercial, industrial and municipal users who, along with the California Energy Commission, did not foresee this latest staggering leap in prices, said Frederick H. Pickel, vice president of Tabors, Caramanis & Associates, an energy consulting firm based in Cambridge, Mass. "It will be a severe financial challenge for most entities," Pickel said. "At the moment, they are just gasping, but it will show up in prices once they get a chance to re-price their products." Los Angeles County, a big buyer of natural gas for its offices, hospitals and jails, recently increased its natural gas budget by half to cover higher fuel costs.

Lucy's LaundryMarts Inc. has pioneered a superstore kind of coin-operated laundry in the competitive Southern California market, complete with Starbucks, banking services and entertainment among the washers and dryers. But Lucy's has halted its aggressive expansion plans because of the unexpectedly high energy costs, said Robert Pardo, senior vice president of business development for the 27-store Torrance-based chain. "We were creating jobs, and now we're not going to open any more until we know how this will affect our profit margins," Pardo said. Energy is one of the biggest expenses for coin-operated laundries, where natural gas is used to heat the wash water and dry the clothes. "We're trying to think of ways to handle it," Pardo said. "The most obvious way is to pass it on to customers, but our customers are very price sensitive, and we'd hate to do that."

Black Blade: Welcome to the real world. Just wait until it hits hard in the rest of the US.


Topaz (12/4/2000; 3:51:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42860)
Heres an "out-there" post.
Totally in the "what if" catagory:-
As we are all aware, the USD is regarded by many here as well and truly beyond it use-by-date.
We've also discussed 3rd way Politics where "us-n-them" 2 party systems are constantly at loggerheads on the surface but in reality both are being directed by third parties who call the shots.
As the US election is of no (direct) interest to me, I have refrained from commenting (as it should be) however a nagging thought keeps tickling the hairs on the back of my neck, so here goes:-
What if TPTB have concocted this whole election fiasco as a prelude to USD/equity/ meltdown?
That way all the "blame" can be squarely sheeted away "internally" thus avoiding unacceptable repercussions on a Global scale.
Perhaps the George/AL dual Presidency notion as posted earlier looks more likely as a 3rd way solution.

LeSin (12/4/2000; 3:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 42859)
E-Waves & Dead Net Dogs @ NEW REALITY
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

"From March 10 to November 25, the Bloomberg Internet Index of 280 stocks lost $2 trillion in market capitalization, more than twice its current value of $912 billion"
—Elliott Wave Theorist, Dec. 1, 2000
"Now, with PETS.COM shuttered and its stock selling for 25 cents, a 98% decline, Barron's reports that the only living vestige of the firm is an email that treats recipients 'to the image of a sock puppet snorting lines of cocaine through a rolled-up bill.' In our opinion, this image is no match for that of the stuffy PhD academics who assured us all in national newspapers that the boom will never cease. They weren't snorting cocaine but something far worse: a heady mix of ignorance, arrogance and extrapolation."
—Elliott Wave Theorist, Dec. 1, 2000

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 3:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42858)
Pd STRATOSPHERIC!!!!!
Pd supersonic (I'm running out of adjectives) - up $46.00 at $868.00! and Pt up $9.00 at $620.00! Au still hanging tough with a $1.40 increase. Also, crude oil starting to show some life. S&P Futures are up +2.10, however, other indices futures are lower. Could get very interesting at the open in NY.

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 3:01:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42857)
Dollar is colored in red (blood) now
I am off to bed to hopefully awaked to a taking off gold price in New York in a couple of hours, but I wait ready to be disapointed. AT least the dollar is now down about half a cent again tonight, that little debt burdened dollar had better be carefull if it wants to test suppot level right now around this area, it may not hold up. aahh I am just saying what I hope for.

Pandagold (12/4/2000; 2:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 42856)
To err is human (my posting #42853)
so we all 'now'........ Sorry 'now' is London accent for 'know'. (it was an error really - sorry, again) I am getting so careless, but then, I have only just got up - weather miserable outside. But, a few dollars on the up side in NY would make the sun shine in London.

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 2:45:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42855)
pandagold
AHAHHAA, I like that thought to. I like to think they see what is being said sometimes. I find it comforting I cant spell or puctuate well, cause it will make them read it and go.. "Holy Cow even an idiot is seeing what we are doing". Anyways, that is an entertaining thought, to think they might lay their evil eyes on this info

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 2:40:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42854)
(No Subject)
Black Blade, yep its gonna get real ugly next week, I mean this is not your normal short cold snap being progged by the very latest models(last couple of days). Thickness levels are being shown at very low levels, and that translates to very cold weather. There has not been a cold snap with thickness levels progged this low for a long long time. Thanks for the articles, and links, and insight, here my freind.

Pandagold (12/4/2000; 2:37:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42853)
Give us (long time sufferers) a break
Yes gold is up 'in London', BUT! As we have all noticed, as soon as NY opens, the 'fraternity' slaps it down again. It is so obvious that NY is where the 'interference' lies.

We'll watch if it breaks with 'the norm' today.

I mean, 'they' could give us a break, we have earned a little excitement in our lives - a few dollars wouldn't be amiss. They have convinced us of their power to control market forces, so we all now it isn't going to be allowed to respond and take us all to 'seventh heaven'.

(p-s-st, I'm really trying to get a message to 'them' in case they just might read our postings)

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 2:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42852)
Pd - BALLISTIC!!!!!!!!
Palladium about to rocket through $850! Up $26.00 at $848.00! Pt is up a couple of bucks, and Au is still up $1.50. Interesting trading action. There are supposedly to be no Pd trades out of Russia next year even though Norilsk Nickel has the "right" to deliver. Guess what? They don't have much at all left! This action could get very extreme!

Rockgrabber: I am unable to access the link you provided, however, I am aware of the long range forecast for colder than normal weather this winter. There is a lot of demand for NG and lower storage levels. This could be interesting. Glad I got a wood-burning stove and a good supply of wood (mostly juniper). Going to get ugly this winter.

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 2:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42851)
(No Subject)
AAAAHHHHH sorry. Anyways, if you go to a NOAA weather station then you can check out long range forcast models, check out 6-10 day AVN, and MRF models. And if they have discussions check them. I am telling you it looks like next week, after sunday or so is going to be VERY COLD right where it needs to be and heading east. Shoot I wish I could go long some oil calls right now!

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 2:17:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42850)
Black Blade Sorry, may this one will work
http://www.-atm.ucdavis.edu/`wxauto/fos/fxus/FXUS66.KSGX
Hope this works

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 2:11:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 42849)
BLACK BLADE
http://wrh.noaa.gov/afos/LAX/AFD/LAXAFDSAN
I will start proof reading, sorry. I have had a few beer many, and had just had the chalice in my hand, and will again in a second. But anyway please go to this report fast cause I think It will change anytime and they may not discuss this feature. Scroll right to the last few words pretty much.

Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 2:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 42848)
BLACK BLADE
I have studied weather from as long as I remember. I have very good news for you. I have just went through some long range wether stuff (Just in AVN model) All models including long range MRF are all proging a SERIOUS arctic front to come sweeping in dead into the heart of America in about 1 week. I have never seen then use the term "serious artcic front" (actually that is not the exact quote, but it is near to that, only more severe sounding. Maybe I will go back and check the weather discussion report and post it.

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 2:00:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 42847)
The Fed Can Cut Rates -- If Oil Cooperates
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/numbersgame/1180653.html
Excerpt from article at link

Oil prices have roughly tripled since the end of 1998. The U.S. has never experienced a price rise in oil of this magnitude without having a recession, yet personal consumption is still growing at an 8% rate and the consumer price index has only increased from 1.5% to 3.5% during this time.


Black Blade: But then we here at the forum already knew that.


Black Blade (12/4/2000; 1:56:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42846)
A Chill Is in the Air...
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/christopheredmonds/1178935.html
Winter cometh. Natural gas riseth.

That's been the mantra this week as natural gas prices skyrocketed on news that gas storage -- the amount of gas stockpiled for peak winter demand -- dropped just as the first cold spell of the season arrived.


Black Blade: Good article


Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 1:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42845)
tedw
Exactly what I have going, and I sure am happy to wake up everyday. Physical, but cant possably afford the chance of a miss in the options markets. Mine have been expiring worthless everytime, even when they have gone to the moon twice now. But I think now I will beable to capture profits while staying long (in case of this prolonged bull market)((Actually that bull market is already set in stone, we all know that)). Yep oil is a bargain!!! I think if prices can hold for another 2 days, untill I fund more speculative capitol, into my always faltering futures account, and can buy some of those feb 31 calls I will be sitting fat (this time I tell myself it will be different then all the other times when I lost hahhaahaahha). But really, I think it will be. And my GSR (my only holding of a mining company, I remember not being able to resist picking some up for 1.50 after having heard Bill Murphy talk about it) and I am happy with that buy also even though it has gone down to .50 (laughing) cause now I can pick up more for ever as long as it stays at these prices or just goes bankrupt or something. Anyways I am going to go check out market action now. I seen Gold acting frisky. I rember seeing the dollar up .03 though, so I am hoping to now go see it red!! I hate it when the dollar is green, I love to see the dollar in red. I LOVE TO SEE THE COLOR OF BLOOD ON THE DOLLAR TICKER. that sounds evil, I want you to know though I am not evil. anyways have a good night here anyone who reads this, or have yourself a goodmorning if that is what you are awakening to. Actually is it that simple?? Can you just decide you are going to have a good moring, or a good day, or a good life??

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 1:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 42844)
Part 1: Rising Energy, Slowing Economy
http://www.thestreet.com/comment/christopheredmonds/1191494.html
Excerpt from article at above link

Here's an interesting note. Every recession we have had in the last 30 years has been either caused, or at least triggered by, higher oil prices. If you go back to 1974, the recession was caused by a doubling or tripling of oil prices. The same is true with the 1979-'81 recession. And, to a lesser extent, the Kuwait War pushed prices higher, and that had an economic impact. There was more there than just energy, but the 1970s were clearly dominated by major energy price moves. So far this time, we have had an energy price move on par with what we saw in the 1970s.


Also:

I think it is primarily other factors. I really don't think OPEC can provide a significant amount of additional oil to the market. We are at the lowest level of excess capacity in over 30 years in a nonwar period. That itself is an extremely bullish statement.

I have my doubts whether OPEC can meaningfully increase production. We think they have about a million barrels of daily excess capacity. That is, by far, the lowest number we have ever seen. Clearly, OPEC has increased production significantly over the past 12 months and it has little impact on prices.

There are two other factors that are preventing oil from getting to the end consumer: a tanker and a refining bottleneck. Add OPEC, and I don't know how the end consumer can get more oil in the next 12 months.

On the tanker front, we've seen rates triple in the last 12 months. They are well above replacement-cost economics. The problem is it takes two years to build a new tanker.

We saw refining margins explode this summer and the refiners are running all-out. Do we have more capacity there? Not really, and it will be a while before we do.

We say OPEC could be the controlling factor here, but the fact is they don't have a lot of control because they don't have a lot of excess capacity but, even if they did, they couldn't get their oil to the end market. And, even if they could get it to the end market, we can't refine it.

There is more on NG and coal as well.



Rockgrabber (12/4/2000; 1:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 42843)
justamerebear
Thats for a nice perspective into your life. Makes me want to do a few things a little different, after having read that. I get from that, things are great if you stop to enjoy them, of course you need the abitity, will, time, understanding, to beable to enjoy things the way it sounds you do.

Belgian (12/4/2000; 1:14:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42842)
@ BEESTING
Let's take some action....Splendid Sir !!!!
That's exactely the kind of actions that are urgently needed. Bravo !!
You are inspiring as to show how goldphiles must come up for the cause. Unfortunately, most among us keep on talking to themselves.

justamereBear (12/4/2000; 1:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42841)
CavanMan

I suppose the first thing before giving this sort of advise, is to ask: Other than Gold, what do you like?

Personally, I can spend a happy afternoon watching the artisans in one of the villages east of Rimouski, along the south shore road of the St. Lawrence River, do their thing. (wood carving mostly, miniatures of old style French Canadian Habitants, and I love the way they capture the feeling.) I often stop and spend an hour, or an afternoon, beside a babbling brook, or to breath in a particularly beautiful sight in the mountains, or perhaps climb partway up that mountain. I love nature, and being at peace with nature.

Not for me are the beaches, I would rather spend time at the docks helping, or watching a fisherman with his load, or how he cares for his equipment. I can take 1/2 or 1 hour at a historical site, contemplating what and where we came from, but only longer if there are some stories that are associated with that spot, and then I can go till I run out of stories.

I love getting invited into peoples lives, just to see how the other half lives. I have taken jobs on a farm for a week just to do that. I don't usually have an itinerary on vacation, I just sort of head East, or whatever, and only worry about the date I want to get home. Nor do I have an interest in shopping till I drop. More I just go till I find something interesting, and stop, for as long as it is interesting.

Canimami is right, Prince Edward Island can have some very beautiful peaceful moments, and you can drive across from Nova Scotia now. Newfoundland is quite different from the sandpile that is PEI, and the locals call it "the rock". Take the coastal ferry from Point aux Basques to Argentia, and stop of at one of the little fishing villages (assuming you can find a place to stay)(say a village like Grand Bruit, with its 160 people) and you will realize why the call it that, and how that effects their lives.

It is beginning to sound like a city is more your style, and if so I would suggest Montreal (old town) or Quebec city, with empasis on lower town. I got all interested, while visiting the Citidal, which is perched way up on a small mountain, with the water ram that uses the flow of the St. Lawrence River to force water up to the Citidal. Been in operation for hundreds of years.

So, what turns you on? What would be an ideal vacation?

Regards
j'Bear

Black Blade (12/4/2000; 1:09:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42840)
NG Higher and Going Much Higher!
Here we go! Petroleum on the rise, and NG at a new record high as it BLASTS through $7.00 Mbtu!

Natural Gas 7.005 +0.332 +4.98 %
Crude Oil 32.48 +0.46 +1.44 %
Heating Oil 0.9845 +0.0137 +1.41 %
Unleaded Gasoline 0.825 +0.0007 +0.08 %

Inflation here we come!


Black Blade (12/4/2000; 0:47:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42839)
A Change in the Air?
Gold is up +$1.50 at $270.00, and Pd is up $15.00 at $837.00 and ready to bounce over $850.00. Many are beginning to realize that the Russians have no Pd left and the lid is about to blow off. The Japanese TOCOM and NYMEX appear ready to delist Pd and prevent an embarrassing repeat of last years default and margin increase debacles. Meanwhile, after hours trading in some gold equities last week could signal that something strange is in the works. Newmont, Harmony, Homestake, and Durban trading volumes were extremely heavy. Rumors are that Arab countries are acquiring large amounts of gold bullion over the last couple of months. It may mean nothing, and then again……………

- Black Blade




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