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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/4/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
Bonedaddy
(12/04/99; 23:56:13MDT - Msg ID:20288)
Thank you FOA,
You answered my questions and much more! In your logic I find a stark beauty.
I don't relish the idea of the dollar being dragged from it's "reserve currency perch". At the same time, it does seem inevetable. Each morning I arise hoping to find that gold has NOT catapulted in price over night. I was born a man of humble means and I enjoy owning gold. (Enjoyment is different than pleasure is it not?) My hands don't feel the sweaty palms of greed. I simply see nowhere other than gold to store the fruits of my labor. When the POG finally does begin to rise, these halcyon days will indeed end. A common man will no longer be able to aquire gold in the amounts that I have grown accustomed to over the last few years. I only know that when I look at the French Angel I carry with me, I see a day of hard work, earned with integrity, by honest effort and skill, stored up for a future time when my
back will not be so strong or fortunes so kind. You have stated that "we are on the road." Time IS running out, I understand. But even though I'm a "gold bug" I do not wish to see the price rise, just yet.
canamami
(12/04/99; 23:02:38MDT - Msg ID:20287)
Clarification re Question 1 to FOA
In my first question, I noted that there were a large number of "non-convertible" dollars. In fact, it is arguable that since the end of the gold exchange standard, all US dollars are convertible. I simply assumed for the purpose of the question that there are "non-convertible" dollars. I don't know enough about the field to form an independent opinion concerning the existence of non-convertible or excess US dollars.
canamami
(12/04/99; 22:46:25MDT - Msg ID:20286)
Questions for FOA
FOA,
Welcome back to the Forum.
I have some questions (though in no particular structure), which perhaps may elicit some interesting responses.
1. In Don Coxe's weekly conference call, reference was made to some agreement or proposal whereby "two zeros" will be dropped off the Japanese currency. This forms part of the "parity" notion - that one US dollar will equal one Euro will equal one yen.
Given the large amount of "non-convertible" dollars held by those states previously and/or currently under US protection, said amount of dollars representing the "liquidated debt" owed to the US for such protection. Could "parity", in your opinion, constitute a window period whereby holders of "liquidated debt for protection" US dollars will be able to convert those assets into yen or Euros? In a sense, as part of ushering the "new economic order", Euroland and Japan will assume some of the US' outstanding debt incurred as part of defeating communism. Could this partly explain why the pound and the lesser Commonwealth currencies have been left on their own for now, perhaps as a reward for the role in defeating communism in the early part of the Cold War, as well as the greater (dis)proportionate debt incurred in defeating Hitler? Once the window period is over, the greater currency competition then begins. How would this "parity", "window period" scenario benefit gold? (Please note that I have used the "rational actor" model of international relations in this question, which in reality I don't accept.)
2. Traditionally, the US has opposed revaluing gold reserves, perhaps to preserve the dollar's pre-eminence as the world's leading currency (arguably, there are other extant, lesser reserve currencies). In the seventies, a two-tier official/market price of gold existed (in fact it still exists), in that gold was valued at $35 per ounce officially, while in 71 the market price was $70, while in 73 it was $105. My understanding is that gold loses its monetary function when the market price exceeds the official price, in that no central bank will let its gold go at the official settlement price when the market price is higher. Thus, I suspect you are positing that the ECB will value its gold reserves at higher than the market price. If private citizens have no access to the official market of CB settlement, how would private citizens benefit from the higher official price, and therefore why should private citizens hold gold?
3. The crisis in August 1971 could perhaps be viewed as an attempt to knock the US off its pedestal, just as that which Another posits is a planned attempt to knock the US off its pedestal today. It didn't work in 1971, and in fact the US and its dollar emerged even stronger than before, the dollar remaining the reserve currency and the US freed from the few shackles imposed on it by Bretton Woods, free even of the need to pay lip service to the gold exchange standard. Not only did the US get away with breaking the gold exchange contract, it emerged even stronger than before precisely because it broke the contract. The US continued to permit its corporations to continue foreign direct investment, even when running a trade deficit, contrary to the then IMF statutes. The US then presided over further changes to the IMF statutes, further weakening gold.
The same parameters which led to a US victory over Europe and Japan after August 1971 still exist. The rest of the world still does not want to face a US export capacity supported by a weak dollar (though branches of US manufacturing may have declined since 1971). Further, the US is still quite an autarky, so that it can get by on its own, to a great extent. The question: Why would the US be routed economically in the new currency order you state Another and his associates wish to implement, when the result in 1971 was US victory?
4. The basis of your theory concerning gold's future value turns on the rest of the world, especially the oil-producing Middle-East, continuing to value gold. Yet, we have seen Kuwait and Jordan both release significant amounts of gold into the market? Both are Arab and Islamic countries, said willingness to release gold apparently being inconsistent with the cultural premise of your hypothesis. Do you have any further comment on Jordan's and Kuwait's "parting" with their gold?
Again, welcome back to the Forum. I look forward to any reply you may have.
Regards,
canamami.
FOA
(12/04/99; 22:20:32MDT - Msg ID:20285)
Reply
Peter Asher (12/04/99; 21:44:15MDT - Msg ID:20283)
FOA, Buffet
Any flaw in this script?
Hello Peter,
That could be right. There are several angles floating around. Your thought would make the best play for silver longs. Don't forget, I own a little silver,,,none of you would talk to me if I didn't (smile).
Anyway, tightening screws is not the Buffet profile. My take is that he brought long before $7.00. The price run started because committed traders knew his announcement was a threat to their hedged plays. You know, deltas all out of whack. The price worked it's way back down after he leased high (10%, 15%, 20%???) as commercials pulled their emergency long trades.
In reality, the silver he locked down was already in use, so to speak. It was held as a function of inventory. So, all he did was lock a claim on the inventory metal, then contract it's ownership back for a fixed time. All the while receiving ransom money. It fit's perfectly because that's the same play he uses to grab preferred stock of companies. If the collateral goes up in value, that's good. But, his
aim is a higher return than "market" and be first in line in ownership.
He would do the same thing using Iron if the rates were right.
Thanks Peter, I have to go. FOA
YGM
(12/04/99; 21:50:42MDT - Msg ID:20284)
NORTH OF 49
Something tells me I'm fortunate to be......
North of 60.....Could there be a "raft" :-)) of UN Decals hiding in one of those sheds? Also the pics look like the storage compound is out in farm country w/ twin dirt airstrips...
Thanks for the site.......Lets hope for a peaceful and happy New Year, free from chaos and strife........YGM.
Peter Asher
(12/04/99; 21:44:15MDT - Msg ID:20283)
FOA, Buffet
As buying all that silver pushed the price up over $7.00 and then it worked it's way back down to $5.00, could not the leasing it back have caused the reversal? Furthermore, this results in making silver available for another acquisition run.
Seems like a fairly simple strategy, Buy until there is a shortage, lease profitably and drive the price back down, accumulate more, then make another large purchase setting off a silver rally and then tighten the leasing screws, maybe the metal is all due to be returned by then.
Any flaw in this script?
FOA
(12/04/99; 21:34:03MDT - Msg ID:20282)
Reply
Lafisrap (12/04/99; 18:51:51MDT - Msg ID:20275)
Questions:
Do you have any ideas as to what is going on in the LBMA? ----------------------
So, if that is the case, who is doing all this trading? And why? I may be missing a lot of important information, much of it may even be obvious, but I see no other explanation than that the LBMA is a dollar/gold laundering machine. ------------------------------
Hello Lafisrap,
"a dollar/gold laundering machine",,,,,Ha Ha! Good lord, I think you have it! No, seriously they do move a lot of gold. Only most people have the wrong concept of what moving gold is all about. On the retail side they mostly set up a lot of the "big" trades of gold from the mines to the
fabrication industry. They also move any physical needed to cover the industry deficit. And a lot of investment physical is shipped all over the world. Still, all of this is but a drop in the oil barrel compared to what they trade.
Practically all the fully paid for investment physical is traded without movement. Just the ownership is transferred. For what it's worth, even this small amount dwarfs the new bullion coin sales world-wide. To me this demonstrates why fresh (new) coin market sales cannot move the physical price. It does make an excellent indicator of private physical purchase intentions. Usually if coin sales are up, most likely large physical bullion is in demand also. But, coin fabrication is small compared to bullion.
Earlier this year, old bullion supply dried up and it looked like the last of the private "old stocks of gold" had finally run out. Then the price shock from the Washington Agreement flushed out some more. I've written on this before (and ORO told it better than I), but the more the old holders sell out in return for holding "unallocated gold accounts" the worse the shortage will be when the
marketplace fails. Slowly, over many years, the people that now hold the real bullion that was sold to create a lot of paper gold, have literally locked up the ownership. The old liquid gold market we used to know in years past functioned because of all the private physical holders that traded it.
Now, it's all paper being shuffled around.
This gets back to your LBMA item. The old, deep private bullion pool has been replaced with a paper commitment pool. In the past, if someone defaulted, we just grabbed their bullion. Today, if they default, they just default! Again, if that big African mine does tell them to take a hike, the
whole modern gold market could just collapse. This is why I smile when I hear someone question why the big funds and traders don't just take delivery against OTC paper. The question is just exactly what are they going to take delivery of?
All the gold movement is just for show. Same for comex. Sock a little gold in there and complete a few deliveries so it all looks right. It's all the same game we played with the dollar before 1971. Only when everyone asked for delivery did we find out that the world was awash in paper gold,,,,,I mean dollars! It's going to happen again, real soon.
-------------I have read that there is a world drug trade that is extremely large and traces back to the British East Indies Company, and this world-wide drug trade still flourishes, using much gold that must be laundered into dollars. ------
------Also, what is "market to market"? I am guessing you mean "marked to market". That means to price something at the price the market will pay, correct? ------------
Lafisrap,
As for drug money in gold? Shoot, I bet more illegal trade of everything is done in US dollars than gold. From what the Government tells us about the new copy machines now-a-days, they don't need to break into banks any more! They just print the stuff?? What a mess!
Sorry, Market to Market is a slang. You are correct.
Thanks
FOA
Chicken man
(12/04/99; 20:36:05MDT - Msg ID:20281)
Sharing and Caring of friends......
Ufta....!what a stir if I might add.....all I can sayis that man that owns the football gets to make the rules....
The only reason I lurk/post here is to share what I have learned with others....in turn , as I travel the learning curve of life and reap what other sow (after sifting the wheat from the chaff) I hope to gain a edge on what is driving the precious metal price.....as to the posts refering to this site being the place where the intellectuals(knights?) hang out and the Kitco Bar and Grill is just for "party animals" , I thought that was tacky comment....I haved learned a lot from both sites ...!
I guess the thing that rubs my feathers the wrong way is the "phantom posters"......one can change their handle and ask "setup" questions to their first handle......this is very childist and deceptful.....what these posters a failing to realize is they can change their handles all they want.....but eventually your "writing style" is recognized as to who the REAL poster is......if the "hogs and kisses" poster thought that was just a little joke then where is your honor......if this type of "wasting bandwidth" is continued here all credibility of this forum will be lost forever....!
As to the knight bit.....please leave me out..! they were the "hired guns" of their day.....not much honor in that...eh? got vanity...?
So let us continue our discussion...and continue to share and care for each other.....
Your friend...Chicken man...
lamprey_65
(12/04/99; 20:34:47MDT - Msg ID:20280)
New Vronsky Article
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/vronsky120699.html
Add another angle? We can only hope!
Lamprey
FOA
(12/04/99; 20:23:19MDT - Msg ID:20279)
Comment
lamprey_65 (12/04/99; 18:35:54MDT - Msg ID:20274)
Lamprey,
That W. Buffet is something else, isn't he! No one has ever played modern paper market investing as well. I think (I THINK!) he even converted he silver holdings into lending contracts. Perhaps that was his intent from the beginning. Because his holding strategy is so public, buying hard silver cheap and then lending it for "who knows what" return looked good for his profile. With the market in a squeeze after his "news break" he could have got 20% to lend it??? Again, that's just like his kind of deal.
All in all,,,,,one day, Berkshire will buy some gold to hedge their massive portfolio against international investment barriers (if they haven't brought it already). Not even they can ignore this as a risk from a market meltdown. You can bet that when that time comes, this gold will not be lent.
Every day that goes by, the Dow Stock market looks more and more like the old Japan bubble. Only they didn't have a world reserve currency to worry about. When the US bubble blows, every asset holder outside the Euro zone will be running for cover. It's not going to be nice.
On the subject of physical metal; not all Asians run from gold stocks. Some of the major investment families over there own claims as private companies. Only they market the gold to themselves as they see the bullion itself as the value, not the possible earnings of the company. Big
difference from our concept, no?
Thanks for talking FOA
RossL
(12/04/99; 20:13:28MDT - Msg ID:20278)
An aggregation of several topics
LaRouche
LaRouche is quite the enigma. An unavowed statist, one who eschews government controls on just about everything. But then he attacks like a pit-bull on the corruptness of politicians that is an inevitable result of statism itself. Quite a circular argument. I wish he would learn some Austrian economics.
I recall his quest for president and his half-hour TV shows in 1986. He made claims about governments and drugs that myself and my friends us thought quite eccentric. I discovered ten years later that he was right about the cocaine. (Terry Reed, Compromised, ISBN 1883955025) Go to amazon.com and plug in that ISBN into the book search. You don't have to buy the book, just read the comments of the other buyers.
Farfel
Take a chill pill, dude
Clinton has no great interest the gold market. He's a politician. His interest in gold is limited to its use as a tool in his power game. Complex market dynamics are not controllable by mere presidents or elected politicians.
Stranger
--quote--
"The point is, gold is inherently a short term investment for which timing is ABSOLUTELY ALL THAT MATTERS. Furthermore, I submit that people who hold gold year in and year out in quantities which are disproportionate to their other investments are squandering any opportunity of ever achieving wealth in their lifetime."
--unquote--
Lots have been said about the Stranger and I respect MK's position on the matter. I am in total disagreement with the Stranger and the above quoted statement. And also his Y2K position. Timing is important, but not ALL that matters except maybe for the over-leveraged players that FOA just remarked about. Stranger's statement applies for day-traders and bubble-mania mavens.
NORTH OF 49
(12/04/99; 19:47:41MDT - Msg ID:20277)
One too many rafts and not enough its!!
Should read: Make of "it" what you may.
Sorry
No49
NORTH OF 49
(12/04/99; 19:43:45MDT - Msg ID:20276)
YGM
http://www.alltexas.net/news/cars/
Hey there miner man--remember about a month ago I posted a site with a raft of what would appear to be a raft of UN vehicles claimed to be stored in Texas. Also in that post I indicated (regretfully) that I had seen another one with several aerial pictures of an enormous amount of similar vehicles but had deleted it--guess what--found it!!
Make of what you may.
No49
Lafisrap
(12/04/99; 18:51:51MDT - Msg ID:20275)
FOA, questions
Hi FOA,
Very good to se you posting.
Questions:
Do you have any ideas as to what is going on in the LBMA? I understand that the LBMA "trades" approximately 2.5 trillion dollars of gold each year. Please describe, if you will, what a "trade" is in this case. I can see no reasonanble answer on my own other than that dollars are exchanged for paper claims on gold, and paper claims on gold are exchanged for dollars?
So, if that is the case, who is doing all this trading? And why? I may be missing a lot of important information, much of it may even be obvious, but I see no other explanation than that the LBMA is a dollar/gold laundering machine.
I have read that there is a world drug trade that is extremely large and traces back to the British East Indies Company, and this world-wide drug trade still flourishes, using much gold that must be laundered into dollars.
Please comment if you have good info.
Also, what is "market to market"? I am guessing you mean "marked to market". That means to price something at the price the market will pay, correct?
Thanks,
Lafisrap
lamprey_65
(12/04/99; 18:35:54MDT - Msg ID:20274)
Revaluation of holdings, etc.
http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1999/11/22/buf.html
Thanks for the info, FOA...very interesting, indeed!
I've been lurking for a few months, decided to join the fray (oh, personally - I don't miss The Stranger all that much).
So many things happening now that will influence gold's future. The current U.S. market bubble's demise will also come into play...of course, no one knows when, but it will happen. Don't know where I picked this up, maybe here:
http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1999/11/22/buf.html
When Mr. Buffet talks, I listen.
In the final analysis, physical gold looks like a necessity for the individual concerned with preserving wealth. The Asians could teach us Westerners a thing or two on that subject.
Lamprey
USAGOLD
(12/04/99; 18:27:54MDT - Msg ID:20273)
My Position
I do not enjoy, relish, look forward to or gain personally from deleting codes let alone one as important as The Stranger's. I'd rather have him posting than not for the good of the site, but, at the same time, no one is above the rules. If you cannot debate an issue without making it personal, then don't even sign up to post here. That is not what this place is all about. If it were, USAGOLD would degenerate into a juvenile showcase/chat room in no time. I'm not going to let that happen. The Stranger has crossed the line before and toed it on several other occasions. He kept pushing the envelope -- as others have said -- until he pushed too far.
The rules are few and without complication. One of them is that personal attacks are forbidden. There is no wiggle room there. This has nothing to do with the Stranger's philosophy. It has nothing to do with stifling dissent. It has everything to do with an ad hominem attack on another poster. I would not suspend anyone's posting privileges on the basis of their analysis. I simply enforce the rules in the interest of all who post here for the long term good of all involved. If I don't act to stop one, it gives license to all. I think everyone who's been here for awhile understands where I'm coming from by now -- attack the idea or the argument not the person.
The Stranger made two posts which I considered to be a direct attack of a personal nature on a fellow table member. He also made what I consider to have been some ill-founded, and unbased accusations -- and that was probably the more eggregious offense. In addition, I thought the attack particularly vicious. And it could have gotten worse. As I said, I will not allow a situation to degenerate to that level. After a great deal of consideration, I decided to put an end to it and remove the offending posts.
I think it is important to provide a posting culture where individuals -- both novice and initiated -- can participate without the fear of being torn to pieces by someone who disagrees with them, or doesn't like their forecast, or whatever. If you are a lurker who wants the internet version of the Jerry Springer Show, you are not going to get it here. Too often, I have seen that happen elsewhere, and when I initiated USAGOLD Forum, I vowed it would not happen here. That's why I did what I did. We have become one of the most highly respected destinations on the internet because we have kept the discussion at a level where intelligent, information seeking individuals can visit and find something of enduring value -- that alone has been a notable achievement.
Let the discussion continue.......
Netking
(12/04/99; 18:08:10MDT - Msg ID:20272)
Strangers punishment
The jury has suggested Mr Stranger . . . 30 days confined to another forum somewhere else, the place where the 'big yellow bird' resides engaging in poetry & childish banter set around a precious metals theme. At the end of 30 days thou shalt be re-admitted to "the" forum under a new born again name & nature!
FOA
(12/04/99; 18:02:12MDT - Msg ID:20271)
Reply
lamprey_65 (12/04/99; 17:11:13MDT - Msg ID:20264)
Gold Marked to Market
Hello Lamprey and welcome,
The latest discussion I have received?
This IMF action was political money warfare at it's finest. The US faction fought for all they were worth to reverse this. It's a major blow! Even though the US dollar group still control the marketplace price for gold, they cannot stop the official revaluation of national holdings. Now that the IMF deal was forced through, these national holdings are free to be raised without "marketplace price settlement"! That is the key from which the ECB/BIS can spring gold higher in increments. It's also the reason the "Washington Agreement" seemingly came out of nowhere so as
to free European gold away from the English marketplace.
If you have followed this discussion here, you know how sensitive the books of the LBMA are to a rising gold price. Now the IMF deal has opened the door to a world with two prices of gold. In time, as reserve requirements demand higher than market prices, the ECB will begin to do their
quarterly gold revaluation using official gold prices instead of the fictional "dollar paper price".
Between now and then, paper lease rates, comex open interest and paper gold prices will be all over the map. The paper price could run to $500 next week and sink back. Or run and keep running. This is the undercurrent that has the BBs in hot water. There are some serious issues of "who's side are we going to go with" being discussed right now. If gold is forced up, it will bring the oil producers to settle in Euros so as to benefit their contracts. These contracts are dead without the Euro group. I believe this is the enticement that a Euro at par is offering. A clean transition before the fact. We shall see.
Who would have ever thought a small ME country's 79 tonnes were so important to the survival of the LBMA? Yes, they got a good return of military commitments for their lending gold, but that 79 tonne was nothing compared to the contract loss if the markets failed before they fully integrated with Europe.
Indeed, we shall see!
FOA
YGM
(12/04/99; 17:45:43MDT - Msg ID:20270)
Nightrider...Your 20238 Message
My question to those in this Forum is, how many of you are able to support your standard of living with your Gold?
.......................................................
I'd say not many when even the Placer Gold Miners are hurting and selling excess equipment to keep going....BUT we all as ever hopeful Goldbugs "KNOW" how quickly that could and will change. I myself care not a wit for monies lost nor those who lose it thru paper shuffles of imaginary Gold. Physical will be the court of last resort and that day's not far away....IMO...YGM.
Go GATA & Go Physical.
TownCrier
(12/04/99; 17:45:03MDT - Msg ID:20269)
Sir Canuck...a reply to your comment
Canuck (12/4/99; 5:55:47MDT - Msg ID:20230)
"Sir Town Crier,
In a recent message you spoke of USAGOLD/Centennial Metals in an unusual context. Repeatedly you used the phrase "we".
Without any ulterior motive, may I ask the question, do you
have a business realationship with MK?"
Good heavens, dear sir! Has that not been abundantly clear in past posts? Acting as Master of Ceremonies (for the various contests MK announces in order to stimulate thought and discussion and to put some of his own precious metal into the hands of those that earn the reward) should have removed any notion of doubt. In addition to that, the announcements of updates to the USAGOLD website and the maintenance of the Hall of Fame should have further made the case clear. The daily GOLDEN VIEW is itself spinkled with obvious references to the connection. I'm certain that most people have been aware of this connection. If not, then my apologies for vagueness where I thought the case to be self evident.
With regard to location, The Tower does in fact stand apart from the Castle (USAGOLD / Centennial Precious.) From this vantagepoint on the wild frontier, we are able to give news and fresh perspectives in addition to those delivered by MK himself. From reading our various posts, you can see that we are frequently in close agreement, though not always. No collection of seperate minds will ever be found to be in complete agreement on all points, even on a matter as focused as gold. Here at The Tower we do have a special understanding of the importance of gold, as does Michael Kosares...that's why we occupy our days in this field instead of any other. (Shouldn't everyone pursue what they know and love? Would you want to receive brain surgery from someone who was a gormet chef at heart?)
So, for the purpose of adding additional service to his valued CPM customers (in addition to his monthly newsletter, this website, daily market reports, the forum, Gilded Opinion, etc.) MK has procured the services of The Tower. He has a rare commitment to this customers, both past and present, and that's why I recommended in a post a few days ago to Goldy Locks Guy (I believe) that all other things being equal, I would encourage you to at least consider MK for your next gold purchase. And if calling MK is more effort than walking across the street to a neighborhood bullion dealer, perhaps you could consider that small extra effort as "tuition" or a simple thanks for these services he provides. You'll likely find that his prices are better than elsewhere, anyway. Everyone wins. As MK states in his newsletter, "It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages." We thank you all for your help to keep the fire burning in the hearth, and the intelligent, civil discussion going at the Table.
Leigh
(12/04/99; 17:30:36MDT - Msg ID:20268)
FOA, Town Crier
Thanks, FOA, for answering my question. You said, "[the U.S.] could mark what they already have, market to market...." I'm taking that to mean we STILL HAVE some gold -- the Fort Knox gold isn't gone after all? That has been a recurring topic around here. (You don't have to answer that if you don't feel you should! We worry about your safety!)
Town Crier, I LOVED your story about the Turkish gold!
YGM
(12/04/99; 17:29:23MDT - Msg ID:20267)
Reginald Howe
Golden Sextant Page
December 3, 1999. A Time for Courage: Buy Gold
As a general rule, this site does not offer direct investment advice. So do not be misled by the headline; it is directed at the ECB and the Bank of Japan. There will never be a perfect time for either the EMU or Japan to assert complete monetary independence from the dollar. Recently, with the Euro surprisingly weak against the dollar and the yen surprisingly strong, the ECB quite properly eschews intervention in the dollar/Euro market and the Bank of Japan continues an ineffective policy of sporadic dollar purchases followed by domestic yen sterilization.
Today, in an article entitled "Time to Tame Exchange Rates," The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 3, 1999, p. A14, David Malpass, chief international economist for Bear Stearns, argues that Europe (and by implication Japan) should evaluate its currency in absolute terms, not in reference to the dollar. He writes:
Europe may want to create a benchmark other than the dollar for evaluating the euro. Otherwise, it will trap itself into viewing the world through American asset valuations. This would cause mistakes in monetary policy and would reduce the attractiveness of investment in the eurozone. My preference would be for the European Central Bank to evaluate the euro using the price of gold or another indicator of the euro's absolute value.
Mr. Malpass does not address the mechanics of implementing his advice. He does suggest that given the strength of the yen against the dollar, gold and commodity prices, Japan "should shift from its failed government spending policy to monetary stimulus, expanding central bank assets until deflation stops." The ECB, he suggests, should "announce in advance that when the price of the benchmark rises (meaning the value of the euro is falling), the quantity of euros will fall, and vice versa." He also makes some telling criticisms of American exchange rate policy. Overall, it is an excellent article, which I strongly recommend taking the time to read and study carefully.
But let's suppose, as appears to be the case, that the ECB is relatively content with monetary conditions within the EMU, and considers as well that gold is relatively cheap in Euros and even cheaper in dollars. The problem, as Mr. Malpass suggests, is not so much a weak Euro as a strong dollar. Under these conditions it makes no sense at all either to sell gold to mop up Euros or to buy gold with Euros. The problem is not a shortage of gold relative to Euros or vice versa. The problem is a shortage of dollars relative to both. The answer is to sell dollars, of which the ECB has an abundance, for gold, of which it can never have too much and with which it can someday, if conditions warrant, purchase excess Euros.
The point is that Mr. Malpass did not go quite far enough. If the ECB uses gold as the benchmark for the Euro, it logically must also use gold as the benchmark for its foreign exchange holdings. Indeed, it should hold very modest amounts of foreign exchange except in so far as it may deem certain foreign currencies a good value against gold.
Of course, if the ECB declares gold as its principal benchmark of value -- not only for the Euro but also for all other currencies that EMU current account surpluses may bring it -- it will also be declaring complete monetary independence from the dollar. But if it doesn't, the Euro will continue to play second fiddle to the dollar. Worse, the ECB at some point could find itself forced to buy Euros with dollars despite reasonably tight monetary conditions within the EMU.
If the Bank of Japan were willing to effect currency maneuvers through the gold market, it would have several options. It could sell dollars for gold, tending to weaken the dollar by adding to supply. Better yet, it could buy gold with yen, which it might feel less need to sterilize immediately, particularly if it also made gold the benchmark for the yen. Finally, should Japanese actions in this regard assist Europe to adopt gold as its benchmark, this too could help weaken the yen. For to the extent that the ECB has excess yen reserves, it would likely use them ahead of dollars to buy gold since it is even cheaper in yen than dollars.
The real question, then, in both Euroland and Japan is whether either is now prepared to assert true monetary independence from the United States by declaring for gold, or whether, despite all the brave talk, both will continue to measure their money at the end of the day against the dollar.
YGM
(12/04/99; 17:18:51MDT - Msg ID:20266)
Not To Be Overlooked Site.......Or Ignored!
http://king.igs.net/~wacoppin/truth.htm#jmay
Particular Interest.....
**Jonathan May's Story...
**Why You are Poor-Money and the Fed...
Note-- as in many websites some content is hard to believe and some is hard to dismiss...Just as in listening to Financial Gurus, or Y2K experts.............."You be Your Own Judge, Jury and Executioner".............YGM.
FOA
(12/04/99; 17:18:48MDT - Msg ID:20265)
Stranger
TownCrier (12/3/99; 22:45:13MDT - Msg ID:20205)
Town Crier: Your following note is right on:
"""these discussions should focus on sleuthing out the various intrigues of gold rather than the identities or moral character of other posters."""
To ALL:
I want to thank every person that has come out in support for "civil conversation". Thoughts can never be discussed in an atmosphere of disparagement and personal attacks. Human nature has always set us on the road to warfare without rules of conduct. My only open attack came in self defence after a departed poster accused me of "fraud" several times. Presently the Stranger displayed all the signs of using degrading remarks when intellect was in short supply. It's the old "I'll shout him down until he shut's up". This has surfaced several times. It will return again when least expected. Maybe it will be sent in someone else's direction and hurt their efforts equally?
We all post here at the expense of time and energy and no one wants to have "volunteer" work destroyed. Rules build a civil world and allow the thousands of lurkers at this site a good experience. I say, let him post through someone else or from under another computer site. Mine and Another's thoughts are free, simple and clean for each to interpret as they will. I have no need to remain and debate a rude person who makes commits at my expense. Especially on this stage.
Thanks FOA
lamprey_65
(12/04/99; 17:11:13MDT - Msg ID:20264)
Gold Marked to Market
I believe the IMF solution of marking their gold to market may actually set the example for governments to follow. Especially if what we believe is beginning with the gold market actually takes place...a rising gold price would increase the value of a country's gold holdings if marked to market instead of the ridiculous fixed value concept. Something to keep an eye on.
Lamprey
FOA
(12/04/99; 16:31:54MDT - Msg ID:20263)
reply
Leigh (12/04/99; 15:34:26MDT - Msg ID:20261)
Question for FOA
Hello Leigh,
You know,,,,,,,, I have thought for some time that the whole issue of gold confiscation keeps being dragged out to serve special interest. It always comes across with background overtones of: "Americans don't need physical gold, so why bother with the worry". Usually the paper pushing brokerage industry and miming industry enjoy using this angle so as to sell their product.
Like this: " " "it's the foreigners that need the real gold anyway, so let's use their problems as they drive the market higher. That will benefit our paper gold holdings and we gain without thinking about government law changes" " "
See where I'm coming from? Truly, the last time the US called in gold, it was because they needed it to square "official bookkeeping" and create new banking reserves. This happened because we were on a "fixed gold price standard". Had we not been on this, they could have just raised the gold price to $100 without calling any in from the public. It would have achieved the same reserve effect. Honestly, foreign governments did not credit the dollar as worth more because the US robbed gold from someone to pay it's debts?
Then we have the precedent of 1971? Now why on earth would we now take gold from our citizens when we just denied delivering it against the dollar? Because, you say the new price today will be so much higher. Well, they could have marked their gold to $1,000 in 1971 and still not delivered it against dollars. It would have created the same reserve increase the IMF is doing today.
You see, the whole song and dance is about dollar supremacy. If in the near future the dollar reserve function is degraded, the US will have no reason to grab gold from anyone. Hell, they could mark what they already have, market to market. Say $8,000??? Those that run the US political
machine will be under the same gun as you and me. Just like a failing Russia, the leaders will be getting their hands on all the gold they can buy and shooting down all laws against
private ownership. Let's face it, they won't be able to ship it overseas (foreign exchange controls) so you can bet they will want a good free dealer market for physical: "right here in the go old USA for the benefit of the voting citizens ".
Leigh, the big Western money is going to run for physical as this unfolds and they will be paying up for it with inflated dollars. At prices none of us will understand.
My take on it,,,,,,,,,,,thanks FOA
Jade
(12/04/99; 15:58:09MDT - Msg ID:20262)
Parity........
The worlds three Currency Blocks, seem to stand at Parity, 100Yen-1USD-1Euro. It seems so strange to me that this is occurring right now during such incredible times. So close to the aftermath of Event I, the "Washington Agreement". And during the time the equity markets have moved into "absolutely" uncharted waters. And with the Fed pumping in liquidity at alarming rates. Could this be the prelude and starting gate for "Event II"???. What could that "Event" be?? My one thought…freeze the Currencies at this trading range?? How convenient. Revalue Gold here??. How convenient. Would they do this?? Would this work?? Just a small thought for the brilliant minds that visit this fabulous forum.
Leigh
(12/04/99; 15:34:26MDT - Msg ID:20261)
Question for FOA
Good evening, FOA!! I have a question for you, please. The other night on the Kitco LiveAudio Forum, Representative Ron Paul said he believed gold would be confiscated if its value were to rise sharply. I know you've said confiscation isn't likely, but -- well, considering the tyrannical nature of some of our government leaders -- do you think it might happen? We keep hearing rumors of martial law, and executive orders confiscating almost everything of value. Thank you!
GFD
(12/04/99; 15:24:37MDT - Msg ID:20260)
US Fed Writing Gold Calls
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/302.html?
The above link points to a _very_ interesting commentary at the Gata messages site by Reginald H. Howe. He explores the possibility of the US Fed writing gold calls and the implications of that hypothetical act.
In part of his commentary he speculates that the Fed started to wind down its position earlier this year and this was what got the bullion banks to promote writing calls to their hapless customers such as Ashanti.
We may never know the truth here but this has the ring of truth to it. Certainly, the announcement of Kuwait allocating their entire gold reserves to the trusty hands of the BOE while the US Defense Secretary was still vistiting smacks of an extreme desperation (particularly the plublicity given to what is traditionally a very discrete subject). Likewise the Jordanian sales. It looks like the US is shaking down anyone they can for the physical.
Enjoy.
Peter Asher
(12/04/99; 15:24:13MDT - Msg ID:20259)
The Victorian (12/4/99; 7:08:16MDT - Msg ID:20231)
You stated something vary pertinent to the question of why Gold has not risen in price.
*****
People tend to want PROOF before making a shift in their normal activities. I
can foresee many instances when by the time these individuals wait to see the proof they seek, it
will be too late. They will be trampled by the herd of others who, like them, have waited to see
proof, and were poised to make their move when it happened. People have lost the ability to
think for themselves, to make choices that aren't based on what everyone else is doing. We seem
to need the constant reassurance of the pack.*****
Peter Asher
(12/04/99; 15:18:36MDT - Msg ID:20258)
Dragonfly
I hope we get some conversation going on your provacative post. I find it interesting how people come to accept alot of this by it being done a little at a time. What you laid out there in the prposed solution, could be a real life, real time version of Atlas Shrugged, -- keep talking friend.
dragonfly
(12/04/99; 14:53:44MDT - Msg ID:20257)
The darkness that loometh
http://www.larouchepub.com/lar_oberwesel_2631.html
First to establish the "gold worthiness" of this post, the following excerpt from the link above which is from the August 6 edition of the Executive Intelligence Review:
---------------------------------------------------------
We are now in a process which is typified by the act of the Governor of the Bank of England, Eddie George, in looting his own bank of up to $1 billion and probably more, in concert with an international syndicate which includes the backers of Vice President and fading Presidential candidate Al Gore.
This act of the Bank of England, stealing from itself, for the benefit of a group of cronies of the director of the Bank of England and of the Queen of England, is typical of these types. It must be said that what happened to Russia during the past six years, was found so good by the Western banking system, that they have imported the Russian model, of stealing from their own country's assets, into the West.
For example, there is nothing remarkable or unique in what Eddie George is doing. In every part of the world, we have a form of criminality called privatization. "Privatization" is a multi-syllabic word for stealing.
For example, in Germany, the Stadtwerke, the municipal utilities, are the present object of stealing, under the label of "privatization"--something that every Russian can understand.
If you're going to privatize a firm, you're going to steal from it. That's what "privatization" means. It used to be called, in the Eighteenth Century and the Seventeenth Century, "privateering." That's when people get a legal license to go out and loot. Sometimes they were called "pirates," and if they had a piece of paper from a government, they were called "privateers." So, you don't call the Russian liberals "pirates," you call them "privateers," because they've been given a special license to steal from their own country, their own banks, and everything else in sight. Privateers even steal from each other.
And when times get tough, the frequency and the intensity of stealing from one another increases. It could be said that, with probably a rare exception, that at this point, every leading bank and every leading other financial house in the world, is engaged primarily in stealing--stealing from its own assets.
Now, in the case of Eddie George's stealing of gold, what happens is that the gold is stolen by selling it below its value to a private syndicate of cronies. A small group of people are allowed to buy this gold below price. They are going to hoard that gold, until after the great financial crash wipes out all financial institutions around the world. And that's in process now. When the crash is over, they intend to come back with their gold.
In the meantime, they're driving down the price of gold, in order to bankrupt the gold mines in South Africa, Russia, and so forth. So, they will buy up the gold mines which have gone bankrupt, and they will control the world's gold and gold production after the crash is over--not far into the future.
Every bank is doing the same thing--virtually every bank. Maybe there's an exception, here and there. But I've checked with some bankers, and they don't know of any exceptions. Every bank and financial house is stealing from itself. That is, the relevant directors are stealing assets, and, by various kinds of loan mechanisms and others--with which I'm familiar from the old days, investigating frauds and bankruptcies and so forth, and probate proceedings, in the United States and Canada.
What they do, is they move the money through a lending procedure, or a trade procedure, at reduced prices to a second party, who passes it on to a third party, who passes it on to the fourth party. And the fourth party is the collaborator of the person in the bank who is doing the stealing. When the crash comes, each of the intervening parties, including the bank itself, will go bankrupt. And the bank official hopes to retire on the basis of what has been stolen by the fourth party. It's an old method of stealing. It was practiced in the 1950s, the 1960s, in the United States and Canada. I investigated many such cases.
What is being done now is no different, except that it's done on a grand, global scale.
Whenever you hear the world "privatization," you scream "Thief! Catch thief! Stop, thief!" Every time you hear of privatization of a Stadtwerke in Germany, you say, "Stop, thief!" when you hear somebody proposing it: "Stop, you accomplice of a thief!" The politicians who are owned by financial interests, are bought. And they put through the laws of privatization which enable people to steal. There is the greatest amount of theft in history now going on around the world. Government politicians, governments as such, are stealing. They are stealing for the people who pay them, who support the political parties, who have bought and paid for the politicians, who are now stealing for pay under the guise of being elected, and other officials.
-------------------------------------------------------
The darker side of the equation is one that involves serious consequences which impact us all at a profound level and for which we can barely hope to prepare, even with a stash of physical gold. Another excerpt follows: -------------------------------------------------------
Looting and lying
Why is this going on? Why doesn't somebody stop it?
Well, this thing can go on only under one condition. The stealing at such levels, on such a scale, with such profundity: It only happens when the system is about to go under, when every one of the people behind authorizing it, covering up the stealing operation, knows that the entire world financial system is about to blow. Those who tell you that the system will not crash because they have it under crisis management, are lying. They are lying--why? To buy a few more weeks and months at most, in order to complete the process of stealing. In order to steal, they have to keep you quiet, confused, and believing that the system will not crash. That's how they steal.
So, when a banker says the system will not crash, he is lying. Every leading banker in the world knows the system is crashing, because they're stealing. And they wouldn't dare steal the way they were stealing if they didn't know the system is about to crash--and if they didn't know that virtually every other banking and related financial institution in the world is doing exactly the same thing. So, they don't blow the whistle on each other. That's what's happening.
In the end, they will rob every savings account. They will loot everything, and leave the poor public, especially those who were foolish enough to invest in mutual funds, absolutely destitute. That's the situation we're now in.
For example, the system began to disintegrate in the spring and summer of 1998. We had entered this phase before this, during the summer into October of 1997. The process leading into this had been established in 1994-1995, with the Mexico crisis and the mishandling of the Mexico crisis by the United States in the so-called bailout. So, these are the steps. We've entered, step by step, going back all the way to the middle of the 1960s, in fact, but in terms of financial systems, 1971, and then the Carter administration in the United States.
The famous names who are responsible politically for setting this into motion, include the first and second Harold Wilson governments in Britain; and you see the result of the Harold Wilson era in a television report yesterday, on the British Sky TV News, on the Great Western Railway System, which is a privatized section of the former British Rail system, a victim of Thatcher. This privatized rail system had a crash. And the crash occurred because of privatization. People were killed because of privatization. Because the only way to make profit out of a bankrupt system, is to gut it. So, the safety signals, which should have been operating--about six of them, according to the British report--didn't function. So the train crashed. And people were killed.
This is typical of the effects of privatization. We saw the same thing with the crash in Hanover of the ICE [German high-speed rail system], where a cheaper wheel was used. Safety precautions were not taken. The same thing was done in the German rail system, that was done at Mercedes Benz, with the A-Class--of scrapping the engineering departments which are necessary to develop and prove workable systems, and letting a computer idiot, a nerd--a mere nerd, not a human being, but a nerd, on a computer--decide how the thing should be designed. A nerd who understands nothing about the principles of physical science, but who thinks that, if you know how to operate a computer, and a little mathematics, you can solve all the problems. This is a form of psychosis. This is not anything else.
So you see all over the world, the private and public systems are being looted, consciously, willfully, with willful criminal negligence. They call it negligence, but it was willful. What do you call that? That's called an intentional crime. If you strip away safety systems--for example, you might say, by U.S. standards, that the victims of the Western Railway crash this week, were the victims of HMO-style management--that is, the privatized takeover of medical insurance programs. The cutting of medical care, as Andrea Fischer pushes that here in Germany, is calculated mass murder! If you adjust the conditions of life, such as to wittingly increase the death rate and suffering rate, you are a mass-murderer. If you do this for financial reasons, then it's a crime whose motivation for murder, is stealing. But this is typical--what is happening with the HMO and the medical system inside the United States, what is typical of Congressmen of the United States, who are bought and paid for by Wall Street, who put through the bills which will not allow the victim of an HMO murder to sue for damages in case of injury or loss of life, for criminal negligence.
This is the characteristic of the present world system.
Now, what about crashes? When people hear about crashes, they think about the 1929 crash, or perhaps the 1923 blow-out of the Reichsmark and the great hyperinflation. Well, you want to know about Germany, Weimar, the Reichsmark blow-out in 1923? It's happening right here, in the United States--on a world scale, in Germany, everywhere, the same thing is happening.
What has happened, is--and that's what the present phase of the situation is, which is why all bankers generally are stealing, why privateers are stealing, why bought-and-paid-for government officials are voting for stealing, which is called "liberalization." Don't make crime a crime any more--liberalize it. You don't call people immoral, you call them "liberal." You don't call them murderers, you call them "liberal." In the old days, they would have called a Nazi death-camp manager a "liberal," because he was liberally handling the problem.
This is the way of the world we're in. What's happening?
--------------------------------------------------------
So what is LaRouche's solution??? As follows:
-----------------------------------------------------
First of all, a group of governments--and I have chosen the United States, joined by cowardly Germany, with Russia, China, India, and a few other countries--simply decides, as an executive decision, the following:
The world financial situation is hopeless, a hopeless catastrophe, nothing can save the world financial system in its present form. Therefore, let's stop trying to save the world financial system, or monetary system, in their present forms.
What do we do?
Number one, we declare and avow, that we are each perfectly sovereign nation-states, and have the absolute power, embodied in us by virtue of being perfectly sovereign nation-states. Globalization just died. We killed it.
Number two. With this power as sovereign nation-states, we agree--whether anybody else does or not--as sovereign nation-states, we are making a sovereign decision, which we are making in common, and we represent a majority of the human race, so that's probably important. You put together China, Russia, India, Iran, Malaysia, a few other countries, my friends in South America, in Central America, the United States, and Germany, what have you got? You have the majority of the human race. You have the future of the human race, assembled.
Because the German economy is the only economy in Europe. Any other economy in western Europe lives just on dole, taken out of the German pocket. Without stealing from Germany, France couldn't exist. Who else is going to pay for the big hole called Crédit Lyonnais? It's a bottomless pit. That's where the devil lives and sups tea with Mitterrand. It's the bottom of the hole, called Hell. The hole called Crédit Lyonnais. And actually, Mitterrand has special privileges there, because he created the hole.
So, the first thing we do as sovereign nations, is we declare that all gambling debts, including derivatives and junk bonds, are now retroactively declared to be null and void. No one among us will ever honor again, any gambling debts, such as financial derivatives and junk bonds. Now, that does the positive thing of taking at least $300 trillion of current financial debt out of the world system. If you don't do that, there is no possibility of reorganizing society, and saving civilization. That's the price. You cancel $300 trillion, approximately, of gambling debts, such as financial derivatives, and say that they are null and void as if they had never existed--which sovereign governments can do, if they're perfectly sovereign and if they represent nations which represent the majority of the human race, that's a pretty good decision, about as good as you can get on this planet. That's the beginning.
What about the rest of the junk? Put it into bankruptcy reorganization. Freeze it. Freeze the accounts. Terminate interest payments on these accounts. End it. Government takes over. The government puts each part of its society into generalized bankruptcy reorganization under state supervision. You want to survive, you're going to do that. If you don't do it, you're not going to survive. You have no choice. The comet has reached the Sun. You have no choice.
------------------------------------------------------
To clarify my position, having had extensive experience with LaRouche and the International Caucus of Labor Committees, I must say there are many areas of disagreement between us, but Lyndon must be given credit for sounding the alarm and rigorously documenting every step of our decline for over 30 years. Anyone who has even a cursory knowledge of his voluminous output will attest to at least that much.
Respectfully,
dragonfly
FOA
(12/04/99; 14:44:17MDT - Msg ID:20256)
Reply
Bonedaddy (12/04/99; 13:07:01MDT - Msg ID:20249)
FOA, If I may....ask of you.... a few philosophical questions?
What gift is it, that allows us to see our mistakes clearly in retrospect, while we remaincompletely blind to them as we walk the path to distruction? Blind to the point of becoming angry, if someone dares question our present direction? Could it be that there are certain unalienable truths? Certain rules that guarantee consequences if broken? Is wisdom truly born from pain? If you are indeed wrong in your prognostications. I will not begrudge you for your error. I see that your frame of reference is not that of these present halycon days.
Hello Bonedaddy,
Halycon? Indeed, these times will seem as such.
-- Alky-one, the daughter of Aeolus (god of the wind) was sick over learning that her husband had been killed in a shipwreck. She threw herself into the ocean and was changed into a kingfisher! The Greeks figured that she built a nest on the sea, every year around the solstice. So, for a time
every year the seas were still"--
No, bonedaddy, the tranquil, halycon times we now experience will not last. Modern gold bugs search for financial refuge during these smooth times and find themselves in a tempest not of their making. They chase only the price of gold and find the ships they choose to sail upon being sunk on calm seas. In their anxiety about the future, they listen to the siren song of leverage. They board the very vessels that offer the least in stability. As Another points out, Westerners buy the price, not the
gold.
They see the trail we discuss and follow only half the map. Then, when the "price" of gold fails, they visit their bitter venom upon us. Not because we were wrong, but because they want to follow their old charts.
But, how does one talk to a group, yet address only a concept of simple spirit? Buy the gold and forget the price. The present marketplace for gold does not establish it's value, only it's dollar exchange rate.
We are "on the road". The process has begun. Many once solid BB's are in trouble from this first strike. The Europeans have withdrawn and left the marketplace to drown in a flurry of "paper gold IOUs"! Eventually, the larger scope of this political game will assert itself. That being the dragging down of the dollar from it's "reserve currency" perch. But, before that must come the end of our present price making system for gold. This destruction may show itself in many faces. Here is where the "old gold bugs" cannot quite grasp it.
One of the "unalienable truths" that you speak of is that one cannot own what he does not possess. The entire dollar/debt economy is built on the exact opposite of this concept. That being, "if you hold it in contract form, you possess it's "physical equivalent". This can be extrapolated to include US stocks, treasury debt and even dollars themselves. The American Experience says that one only need to hold the "right to buy something" for such to be counted as real wealth.
This wholesale acceptance of "fraudulent wealth" has lead an entire generation of "Western workers" into saving nothing and thinking it's something! Once any tiny part of this concept is broken, it will call into question the validity of the entire "paper asset" world. Break the gold market pricing system and you will break the dollar. Break the dollar and the complete dollar based business system is market to the market. A marking that brings currency pricing in line with "on the minute supply" of real things. Not the price of things I can get in six months. The resulting dollar inflation will wreck the ability of most businesses to function at a profit. The gold business included!
This is why our present dollar based gold market does not and will not accommodate gold investors outside the physical market. The Washington Agreement has unleashed a paper flurry of gold IOUs, all running from account to account. Running just ahead of the accountants before these
contracts are market to the market. The next "equity killing" gold run will soon destroy another batch of BB traders before the paper price plunges again. A vicious cycle that will continue with wider and wider swings. $100, $500 then $1,000 swings until the LBMA stops all fixings. All the while these moves will drain the equity premium from every mine stock until only the fully unheadged retain any value at all.
If you think our poster's comments were rough on me, wait until others start getting hit "Hard"! These people hate what we have to say because it destroys their investing world and therefore there professional record. As my friend said in my last post, ""Can't change his strategy because he
only wants to play his "paper cards". Typical gambler; he wants to prove to everyone that they can win using the "house deck"!"" I add that it's a deck rigged against most "gold industry" investors. Another said this long ago and he "WAS NOT WRONG". This entire industry and marketplace is
going to fail!
Bonedaddy, I offer a truth that most don't want to see publicly written. Not because of their concern for other's accounts, rather because it opens too many eyes! When all your money is on the wrong horse, you don't want to hear someone talking about how it's going to die. We shall see.
Thanks FOA
CoinGuy
(12/04/99; 14:32:59MDT - Msg ID:20255)
On another topic...
I've been listening to a pretty good radio program on the "yellow metal". It's rather basic, but the Commentator(Joe Battaglia) sometimes spews out a few good gems of info. He also comments on the stock market, and the economy. It's over at www.wellsfargonevadogold.com. There is also an archive of past shows. Worth a listen.
CoinGuy
Peter Asher
(12/04/99; 14:29:41MDT - Msg ID:20254)
Stranger, FOA and playing by the rules
First of all, I am not an FOA true believer but I find his insights stimulating, logical and often brilliant. I take no-ones predictions as anything more than a possibility. I have also disagreed with FOA and have felt the response sometimes evasive. Having said that, I would like to say that I am totally with Michael on this issue!
It isn't a matter of who 'owns' the Forum. It's a matter of agreeing to a set of rules and then following them. Michael has bent over backwards to keep Stranger's posting privileges when Stranger has blatantly broken the rule of courtesy. I once E-mailed Stranger saying "You do push the envelope, you know." Stranger appears to have A Jekyll/Hyde thing going. Suddenly the dignified Wall Street Investment councilor lashes out at people, derides content or indulges in bathroom humor. I noticed that until lately these occasions were on Sunday afternoons, and thought maybe it was a weekend persona taking over. But lately, it seems to be more frequent.
Having said all that, I would like to suggest that Stranger be re-admitted on probation. Our group is having practically a religious schism over this. Strangers firm position of a specific viewpoint regarding our subject matter is a good foil to think against.
And David! If you find yourself falling into one of those belligerent moods, E-mail the post to me and I'll edit it. I would be willing to be, on those occasions, your designated poster.
Sincerely Peter
CoinGuy
(12/04/99; 13:43:46MDT - Msg ID:20253)
Stranger and All
Hello all,
I have to admit, I'm not a regular poster of the site, but I do read the forums daily(or nightly). I have come to appreciate the different philosophies put forth on the how's,why's, when's, and where's of our economy as it relates to gold. I also appreciate the breaking news stories added each hour relating to Y2K, gold, Geekspan, and the general state of the planet as seen through the eyes of each and every poster.
I'll be direct, we are all adults, I feel MK's actions were a little too harsh. I believe with Strangers past postings on the site we can assume he hasn't developed a pattern of disrupting this forum, but just the opposite, he's added an opinion carried across with vigilance, thruthfulness, and at times strong emotion. Just as every regular poster on this forum has. I appreciate Stranger, I like a person that calls it like he sees it. A person may or may not agree with his views. I have on a few occasions, but I've also laughed and moved on.
I think Stranger should be given a warning and reinstated.
My explanation for this is simple, "we're all human". We all cross that line sometime. Give the guy a break.
I miss Stranger, heck I've missed FOA, but I sure as heck miss SPOT more...
Get gold, get physical, and get Stranger back on this forum,
CoinGuy
PH in LA
(12/04/99; 13:17:06MDT - Msg ID:20252)
Banishment of The Stranger
As one who threw himself early into the fray generated by Stranger's poorly-conceived remarks to FOA, I hereby claim a right to comment on our host's action in removing Stranger's posts and posting code.
Indeed, as MK noted, this was not Stranger's first transgression. He was judged guilty of the same transgression and later pardoned on an earlier occasion. For this alone, he might deserve his present fate, even if only as example to others tempted to the same sins.
Unfortunately, using punishment for the making of examples is itself an exercise in negativity. There is considerable discussion suggesting that punishment serves little in modifying sociopathic behavior, which itself is not rationally motivated. In Stranger's case, it is clear enough that he was trying to give voice to an undercurrent of frustration generated by POG's refusal to conform to FOA's explanations and predictions. Rather than search for the true underlying reasons for this, Stranger took the infinitely easier path of heaping scorn on the predictor/explainer, thinking he thereby called into question the basic content of FOA's explanations. Hoppily, there was no dearth of commentary (expecially ORO's) that quickly brought the discussion back to ideas, and away from personalities.
This was good.
And is the reason that MK's discipline was unnecessary. Like a free market left to its own natural laws, this forum finds a true path without intervention by the authorities.
Michael: Please take note of those calling for the readmittance of The Stranger. His contributions have often been worthwhile, and given enough rope, he will demonstrate, even to himself, that his frustrations will never be assuaged by casting personal remarks at others.
Who among us has never erred? Indeed, (as pointed out already) FOA himself once lost his temper towards another poster, for which he appologized and was forgiven by all. Unfortunately, the offended poster never returned, a loss which we all still suffer. This is why so many of us leapt so quickly into the fray... ie, to try to head off the loss of FOA and ANOTHER as a consequence of The Stranger's ill-conceived remarks. Certainly, I would not want to ban Stranger from our midst unless the personal aspect of his posts began to overwhelm our ability to discuss ideas, a line that he has not even begun to approach.
At the same time, arbitrarily removing offensive posts from the archives is dangerous. Far better to leave them there as examples for those tempted to future excesses. And surely, it is a slippery path, and poorly marked for him upon whose head falls the task of judging the transgressors. Better to leave it to the members of the forum themselves.
Those who would grant proprietary rights to our host to act as judge, jury and executioner, should also remember that without the many fine contributors who give this forum its excellence, there would be no forum at all. This in itself should give these contributors a voice in the right and power to police the forum. Not doing so could lead directly to a less healthy forum for all, an outcome to be avoided at all cost. Only when such a policy threatens to fail would there be any need to seek a more authority-oriented solution.
I am thrilled to see that FOA promises to post today and look forward to the view from his vantage point as he "sits back and enjoys the show". His presence alone is ample proof that Stranger has had no ill effect on the forum.
Stranger should be readmitted, his posts should be restored, and let's get on with the game!
dragonfly
(12/04/99; 13:16:46MDT - Msg ID:20251)
IMF
Thank you TC for your posting (msg id 20169) of Michael Camdessus' remarks.
I think the history of IMF 'conditionalities' and the utter failure in every country where they have been applied speaks volumes when referencing MC's remarks. Those who are convinced that the results are actually a 'success' of sorts comprise a much larger group nowadays than the cranky 'right-wing' anti-UN, anti-global anything Bircher types of the 60's and 70's. This larger group, which consists of a good deal of the so-called Left, believes that it has been in the interest of 'world elites' to wreak havoc in other nations, through IMF 'structural adjustments' among other techniques, and reap certain benefits. The convergence of conspiracy buffs of left and right persuasions is a story that is lately being told and is an interesting topic in and of itself. But to get back to MC's remarks - What does he mean by "Considerable thought has been given worldwide to the ambitious project of designing a new financial architecture."??? How about the need to "...humanize globalization."??? Is that a backhanded admission of guilt?
Or is Newspeak for the next phase of imposing one's will upon another. Was it Isaac Hayes who sang "Smiling Faces", the ones that "..show no traces of the evil that lurks within."?? That is the IMF in my book - whether from the left or the right perspective - as George Wallace said - "Ain't a dimes worth of difference". There was a fellow named Bertram Gross who wrote a book in the 80's titled "Friendly Fascism" which covered a new form of 'inflation turned inwards', to borrow Jacques Rueff's phrase, one that would look very different from the red, black and brown varieties of this century. Could it be that the instigators of this thought pattern have frightened other nations to the extent that they realize that sooner or later it is 'do or die' and that if they don't collectively dissociate from the existing system of 'perverse incentives' that even the stronger among them will someday suffer the same fate as those who have already been cannabalized by those who wield the sword of debt service? Is the Euro a step in this direction? Is it being instituted with knowledge of whatever MC means by "ambitious project".
My take on the IMF saying that it sees poverty as "the ultimate systemic threat" is somewhat dark. To read between the lines - the call for "solidarity" is required because it is already a foregone conclusion that "...the targets are no longer attainable." Therefore "humanizing globalization ... will enable us to better protect ourselves as a group against collective risks on a global scale." Boy, ain't that a mouthful! Who is "us", who is in the "group"? How about this one - "Each country has now achieved sovereignty...". Who is his audience? What world do they live in?
Respectfully,
dragonfly
RobertG
(12/04/99; 13:11:23MDT - Msg ID:20250)
The Stranger
I strongly agree with Canamami's excellent post (MSG 20237). The Stranger added a lot to help balance out the discussions on this forum. Lets give him another chance. Bring him back, MK.
Bonedaddy
(12/04/99; 13:07:01MDT - Msg ID:20249)
FOA, If I may....
ask of you.... a few philosophical questions?
What gift is it, that allows us to see our mistakes clearly in retrospect, while we remaincompletely blind to them as we walk the path to distruction? Blind to the point of becoming angry, if someone dares question our present direction? Could it be that there are certain unalienable truths? Certain rules that guarantee consequences if broken? Is wisdom truly born from pain? If you are indeed wrong in your prognostications. I will not begrudge you for your error. I see that your frame of reference is not that of these present halycon days.
beesting
(12/04/99; 13:05:02MDT - Msg ID:20248)
Sir dragonfly #20234---HSBC-
In my humble opinion a newly created bullion bank doing business in the U.S. and the rest of the world, should be thoroughly researched as to past policies,ownership,CEO & Board of directors etc. Bullion banking seems to go beyond the limit of security measures when it comes to secrecy.
And now we(everyone remotely connected with Gold) have the very mysterious death of Edmund Safra the part owner of a bullion bank being taken over by HSBC. I read about a rumer months ago that the Russian Mafia had infiltrated into the highest levels of the Gold markets in London.(only repeating what I read) Here in the U.S. there was talk and investigations into money laundering thru our CB Bank of New York from Russia.
Now if there is some FUNNY business going on in the Gold markets as some suspect isn't it in all of our best interests to check it out, since the mainstream newspaper business seems to be oblivious of everything happening in the Gold industry. YES CHECK OUT HSBC!!! As much as you can.....Thank you.....beesting
Bonedaddy
(12/04/99; 12:48:17MDT - Msg ID:20247)
Reply to Netking
Your Post: Good Evening;
Question = What is the true value of the POG?
Answer = Whatever the majority of the market participants in that market believe the value to be is what it will be over in that time horizon. If you change the market participants perceptions of the worth or value of Gold at a particular time parameter then you will change it's value. When the 'Commercials' are net short you will not see "lift off".
My reply- I believe you are correct as you say "the market participants perceptions" of the worth or value of gold. But I would turn the statement around and make it the perception of the worth or value of dollars. I say this because I believe the following to be true:
1) That too many dollars have been and will continue to be printed.
2) That too much "virtual" Gold, that does not exist, has been sold.
3) That when the previous two truths become widely understood, then much of the gold in existance will not be obtainable by exchange for dollars.
4) That these truths will become widely understood only after the present system crashes, not before.
5) That Gold will then be converted to dollars only breifly and the dollars then quickly "used" before they fall further in value.
The future price of Gold in dollars is irrelevant to me. $300 or $30,000 I care not. When the true scarcity of gold is "discovered" it will end the illusion that there is some sort of gold surplus out there that will forever keep the price down.
It is my opinion, that a very great mistake in buying gold today is to believe that it will go to "todays equivalent" of $30,000. I believe that what ANOTHER and FOA have been saying all along is that in the aftermath of paper market corrections, that $30K won't buy much gold. If it won't buy much gold, then neither will it buy much lumber, oil, medicine, or food. Regards, my friend! And further comments if you will?
dragonfly
(12/04/99; 11:53:37MDT - Msg ID:20246)
AEL msg id 20240
Sir, your logic pertaining to the infrastructural prerequisite reminds me of Mikhail Bakunin's brilliant arguments to abolish the 'right of inheritance'. I doubt they would find much acceptance here, even if they are internally consistent and merit consideration.
The dedication in the copy of "From Out of the Dustbin" of Bakunin's Basic Writings 1869-1871 by Robert M. Cutler is poignant. "To the memory of P.E.C. and for all whose freedom does not depend on others' lack thereof."
Respectfully,
dragonfly
beesting
(12/04/99; 11:49:13MDT - Msg ID:20245)
Futures contracts.
The numbers I gave are only examples. Real futures contracts are in 100 ounce increments...Thank you...beesting
beesting
(12/4/99; 11:41:50MDT - Msg ID:20244)
Labor costs added in!! FOA-ORO-anyone-I need help understanding this.
The continuing expansion of stock or equity prices may also be being fueled by this.
Example:
I go to my claim,work for a week and produce one ounce or about $300 worth of Gold. History shows that one ounce of Gold representing my week of labor should be exchangable for goods or services indefinitly,no matter how many times it changes hands the Gold doesn't wear out.
I take my $300 after selling the Gold and invest it in a booming stock market.
My brother builds a nice kitchen table in a weeks time and sells it for $300.He also invests the $300 in a booming stock market.The table which he no longer owns represents his labor.
Now lets say 10 years passes,my Gold is still out-there somewhere,but my brothers table got so old after hard use the owners destroyed it.
By this time both of our stock investments could be sold for say $1000.We got lucky.
Now the point here is billions and billions of paper dollars representing past labor and products that no longer exist are being exchanged in the securities markets daily.
Yes, the FED pumps money into the banks who in turn pump it into the local economy who in turn pump it into the securities markets in a seemingly never ending bubble cycle.
Now,how does the FED come up with all this money?
Well some is created out of thin air by selling back to whoever wants to buy, Government debt obligations created by The Treasury Department.Some is interest received on the Government debt. The way I understand it all banks can create about $8.00 for every $1.00 they take in'so there is a lot more being created at a local level also.
Recycling estimate of money in U.S. only,-- 75% or more of all the money received by the public(weekly monthly,whatever)goes right back to the FED by way of interest payments from private parties to local banks and taxes to all Governments on almost everything except physical Gold.(local Governments may get a chunk of the remaining 25%)All these numbers are estimates,I don't think anyone could calculate the actual amounts accurately)
Also we now have many many foriegn companies listed on exchanges and doing business in the U.S,that were not there in the past giving incentive for those employed by those same companies to invest away from their home-land.
Does this post make sense??(These are only shared thoughts to the USAGOLD family)
How does all this affect the price of Gold? Well, if the banks can legally create on an 8 to 1 ratio, the bullion banks may be creating 8 paper Gold contracts 7 backed by nothing but promises and one backed by real Gold.Selling these contracts on the futures markets and making a double killing. How? Well if they paid a miner $350 for one futures contract,create 7 more contracts(which may be paid in cash or Gold, or rolled over) out of thin air to=8. $350 divided by 8 = $43.75 per contract cost to bank, then short sell the contracts,knowing by flooding the market with paper contracts a little at a time, so not many will suspect whats going on(short selling profit is based on downward moves in prices) it will force the price of Gold down thereby reaping more profit from the suckers buying these contracts thinking the price of Gold has to go up because of real supply and demand.
Whats the bottom line?
This whole scenario could change quickly and unexpectedly(or it might not) so we (my household) are still accumulating physical Gold at what we feel are bargain prices along with some paper.(got some Gold yesterday and feel good about it!!)
Too much strong coffee this morning.....beesting
canamami
(12/4/99; 11:11:14MDT - Msg ID:20243)
Raymond Aron, The Imperial Republic
I have recently begun to reread portions of a required reading in university, "The Imperial Republic: The United States and the World 1945-1973", by Raymond Aron, translated by Frank Jellinek (University Press of America, 1974). Part II, Chapter II, "The Two Marshall Plans: The Round Trip of the Dollars", and the Introduction are especially relevant starting points for an understanding of the events leading to August 1971, and the underlying theories behind FOA/Another/Oro. It would appear these ideas and this debate have been kicking around for quite some time. I skimmed these portions of the book as a 20 or 21-year-old student, being more concerned with the political and the military than the economic. A fascinating read, actuated by what I have read on the Forum.
Aron was a centrist who was hated by Sartre and his Mao-loving leftist existentialist clique. If I recall, Aron died in a certain degree of despair a few weeks before the liberation of Grenada, believing the United States had lost the will to meet the Soviet challenge.
Tanglewild
(12/4/99; 11:00:30MDT - Msg ID:20242)
Stranger comment.
The Stranger situation.
I believe before posting that he knew he would be treading on thin ice by putting before the roundtable such an acid laced message. Stepping over the line is exactly what was done just as MK said earlier.
It is no ones fault that Stranger put so much weight on the comments of A/FOA to accomplish within such a short time span the rather lofty goals he had hoped for other than his own and he's paying the price.
Although I certainly enjoyed reading various posts from the Stranger I personally can do without vicious attacks aimed at others at this fine forum and if allowed to do so I believe Stranger would do it again. History has it's values.
Just callin it as I see it.
Regards,
Tw
canamami
(12/4/99; 10:42:28MDT - Msg ID:20241)
My Last Post re The Stranger
MK,
The consensus is clear - the Knights want The Stranger restored to his rightful seat at the Table. His absence is palpable, in that it narrows the scope and diminishes the content of the debate.
You own the Table (here I disagree with AEL), but the quality of the meal is diminished by The Stranger's forced absence, said forced absence causing the Knights to question the food preparation and running the risk that they will seek a Table with more varied, evenly balanced meals and after-dinner repartee.
AEL
(12/4/99; 10:20:14MDT - Msg ID:20240)
my .02 re Stranger (and etc)
It did seem quite abrupt and heavy-handed to terminate him like that. It is obvious that Stranger was in no way a "troll" -- someone committed to disruption and/or incapable of civil discourse and/or having little or nothing of value to offer. Quite the contrary.
Further, deleting Stranger's allegedly intolerably-offensive post denied others (myself, for one, not having access to the forum more often than every other day for the last little while) the opportunity to take it in and draw our own conclusions. I would like to think of this forum as the expression of *free markets* on several levels, including free markets for ideas. But as the conventional "free markets" crowd tends to forget, there is nothing "free" about a market when the very land under which it rests is controlled in such a way as to make certain outcomes inevitable... just as there is nothing "free" about a press that makes certain viewpoints unreadable. I know, it can be said that this "press" belongs to usagold, and hence (blah blah). But this would leave aside the fact that the internet infrastructure was built over a period of decades by public moneys (mostly DoD); to come along now and stake claims of cut-and-dried ownership -- and hence a justification for autocratic control -- seems pretty fatuous to me. The infrastructure that allows the usagold forum to exist was built and paid for by all of us; hence to that extent (which is certainly NOT total, but IS significant) the usagold board belongs to us.
At any rate, much better if this matter had been thrown onto the (in this case round) table, polling the participants as to their feelings on the matter. Perhaps the consensus would have been to expel Stranger, but I very much doubt it. He may be abrasive at times, but as I said he is clearly no troll. He is a member of this community.
NewGold
(12/4/99; 10:10:44MDT - Msg ID:20239)
Stranger
One last word on Stranger and I'll get back to lurking
I agree with most posters here who have asked that
The Stranger should NOT have been banned, I for one
really enjoyed reading his posts, they were informative
and to the point. I believe the reason given by our host
for banning him was that he called FOA names, well
if that is the case, I recall sometime last year when FOA called a poster a name, I forgot who it was exactly, and
our host himself stated that he was shocked by FOA's attack, but FOA was NOT banned, I beleive the other poster was banned or quit I am not certain.
The point is we are all testy when Gold is NOT doing well, but I agree with those who suggest that banishment was an over-reaction and The Stanger should be allowed back soon, this Gold Forum will be much richer with him posting.
Nightrider
(12/4/99; 10:03:41MDT - Msg ID:20238)
Stranger "views"
I have been following the posts in this Forum for sometime and I for one have come to appreciate Stranger. The reason for my appreciation is that unlike some in this forum Stranger is not Blind to the realities of Economics as many in here seem to be. Stranger is not a GOLD BUG he is an investor and the reason for investing is to make Money!
My question to those in this Forum is, how many of you are able to support your standard of living with your Gold?
canamami
(12/4/99; 10:02:03MDT - Msg ID:20237)
Re the "Excommunication" of The Stranger
MK,
I have been a great fan and frequent follower of this Forum for a bit over a year now. In terms of being a "fan" and a "follower", the writings of Ayn Rand have been part of my intellectual life since I was about 16 or 17. I believe deeply in private property rights. You pay for, own and maintain the Forum, and thus I recognize that what is posted, and who posts, rightly rests in your sole and absolute discretion.
In addition, I would recognize that The Stranger sometimes expresses himself in a "vigourous" and perhaps "know it all" manner, a fact he himself acknowledged on this Forum on several occasions. I myself have been on the receiving end a couple of times (e.g., I "needed bucking up"), so I'm not speaking of a matter alien to my experience. On the other hand, I have not noted that The Stranger adopts a gratuitously insulting tone, nor that he has ever acted in bad faith. When he has gotten "vigourous" in his comments, it was clearly because he genuinely believes individuals are acting in a manner clearly harmful to their own best financial interests, or perceives someone is counselling others to act in such a harmful manner, and he wants to set things right. I note that there have been posters who indicated they had converted all their assets into physical gold, or gold options, etc., based on what they had read or perceived they had read on this Forum. Clearly, there is an undercurrent on this Forum that fiat currencies (including the US dollar) and equity securities are worthless, and that gold is the only worthwhile asset class; such an approach (certainly if followed to extremes)would lead individuals to make investment decisions which are objectively unprofitable, over most time frames. Moreover, The Stranger has also been gracious to those with whom he disagrees, and provided learned posts from a mainstream investment perspective.
In addition, I believe The Stranger has been one of the more regular and effective contributors, whose posts are clear, intelligent and reflect his experience in the investment industry. (Fair disclosue: I am a fan of his posts, and have referred readers from other sites to this Forum, sometimes expressly to read The Stranger's posts). That being said, I sometimes disagree with what The Stranger posts, as I sometimes disagree with what FOA posts, or others post, etc.
I note that others have sometimes adopted "vigourous" tones in discussion on this Forum, so I don't know if what The Stranger said is materially beyond the pale. I recall Another once indirectly referred to me as a "stupid person" because I posited (in one of my first posts)that gold may find a role as a medium of exchange between private parties, as a means of avoiding currency fluctuations. I may have made a stupid comment, I don't know, but such a comment by Another could have been viewed as uncivil discourse. Maybe I have an overly thick skin, acquired for various reasons, but I tend not to allow occasional intemperate comments over the internet get to me. In terms of giving general offence, I've seen (and perhaps have written) a number of posts that could be perceived as unsympathetic to various groups in our society.
I further get the impression that The Stranger may have been cut less slack as a result of content of his views, as opposed to the manner in which he expressed himself.
In any event, MK, I believe the "excommunication" of The Stranger constituted a disproportionate response, in the light of all the circumstances. That being said, this is your Forum, to govern as you choose.
YGM
(12/4/99; 9:55:48MDT - Msg ID:20236)
Edmund Safra Quote....
He Should Have Followed His Own Philosophy.....
(quote)
"To be conservative in banking is to be in banking 1,000 years. The day you are not conservative, you cannot survive." ...E.Safra.
* .........Where does that leave Greenspan ....the paper printing Bank Baron???? Possibly he'll be remembered as the Man from Thin Air in the Land of Nothing....
FOA
(12/4/99; 9:50:30MDT - Msg ID:20235)
Notes
Hello everyone! This will be one of many posts I hope to offer this day. I'll be in and out, so my response will vary.
I suspect most of you have been in a casino at one or more times in your life. Perhaps a Bains in Monaco or one of the many in Las Vegas. It was years ago in one of these gambling establishments that an old gentleman once gave me an education about people. He invited me to sit down at his
private spot and observe life "on the edge". Here is what I learned. In some ways it can be seen as a parallel to investing in our modern gold market. I adapted it a little for today's thoughts and actions.
You can discover the most about someone's character when they are losing their money. To a lesser extent we can understand their feelings as they are winning. I watched and listened as one player was winning. He gave advice and addressed how his timing was absolutely to the point.
The short term winner:
" " "All right! I just made 50% on that investment and it took only five minutes. I've been doing this all night, so all you "want to be's" gather around and watch how it's done. Before long, I'll clean them out and be rich. If you watchers are smart, you'll catch my "developing record" as it points out that I know what I'm doing. Done this before, some years ago and I'll do it again. All you other players at this table, give up on those losing hands and follow my lead. As you can see this crowd is behind me, so I must know what I'm doing! " " "
My friend pointed out: This guy had indeed beat the house before and made a bundle. Even though the crown around him was growing large, none of them had watched his play last week, or last year, or five to ten years ago. He was cleaned out several times and will never get all his money
back. Just like our modern markets, the tables are rigged against him. He wins just enough to keep his hopes up. We cannot tell his record by watching the crowd. Watch the pit bosses (monsieur in some classy casinos) and the cameras instead, as they are "not" focused on him. The house isn't
worried about this type of player, doesn't care what he says and neither should we.
I watched an listened to a player who was losing. I also saw that the house cameras weren't on him either. He addresses his problems in a covert fashion by looking for flaws in others, even the quiet player next to him.
The "I would be right if everyone else wasn't so wrong" loser:
" " " When this thing turns the money will come rolling in. It's just that right now the cards are wrong, the house is wrong, the waitress is disturbing me. Mostly, it's the way this guy next to me is playing the game, that is throwing me off! No wonder I can't win with someone sitting next to me playing so conservatively. He even expects to make a chunk of money, if he ever bets. And has the
audacity to tell anyone that will listen! Hey, don't you know others are watching you! Your actions are affecting them as much as it is me? None of us can win if you keep playing that way. Look at this, not only are the cards coming up wrong, my gold stocks are going down again. Who do you think you are, sitting at this table with "professional" gamblers? Then there is that guy who keeps saying "I don't care, I'm betting more"! Is everybody watching this? No wonder this isn't working, these kinds of people are dragging us down." " "
My friend pointed out: He must be getting killed! Can't change his strategy because he only wants to play his "paper cards". Typical gambler; he wants to prove to everyone that they can win using the "house deck"! People like this keep the modern system going. If you think he is bad now, wait till the others start winning as his hand keeps folding. I've seen this before and it's best to move to a different table before his end comes.
Then there was the simple quiet one at the end of the table. He had not made anything, but his phones were tapped, mail monitored and weird people followed him at night. Six monsieurs stood watch on him as he played and the cameras were well focused on his game. Even though he talked
funny, a few people understood what this guy was about. His actions could bring down the house, even all of Monte Carlo! Clearly, something was very wrong with this picture. I walked to the table and talked. I was seen then as the only publicly known observer that knew of him.
" " " FOA: Sir, I see that your people keep bring in "golden chips" and stacking them on the table. For years, you just sit here and watched this pile grow. Still, you have yet to place a bet.
Another: My friend, I only bet when my play will win.
FOA: Sir, how can you win if you don't play the "paper cards" like everyone else?
Another: I do not intend to play the "rigged paper game of fools". I will bet but once.
FOA: Sir, Excuse me, but you have to play if you are going to win, no?
Another: I will bet only once and that will be enough.
FOA: But sir, how will you know when to bet?
Another: When the stakes are so large the house cannot afford to accept my wager. You see, I will play "my game" in "their house". In that day, in that time they will be the ones that fold. It be for the benefit of this new marketplace.
FOA: But how can you win if this house fails.
Another: Presently, this gaming house plays with their chips and their cards. Not real are these. This action has imparted the false value on the world money many use. The closing of this marketplace will impart a new value on my holdings and the holdings of all that know what is real.
The game I play is the game "ALL" win! It is "the good bet", yes?" " "
FOA: I get your drift, my friend. Let's stay in touch as I want to follow how the politics of this plays out.
Another: We watch this new gold market together, Yes?
FOA: Yes!" " "
My friend in the booth pointed out when I returned: Did you notice how he didn't get excited or mad as the value of his chips went up and down. That's because he is not betting yet. Everyone that hasn't taken the time to talk to him thinks he's nuts for building that chip pile. They think he is losing his shirt while waiting to bet. Still they are being taken to the cleaners as the "house politics" keeps
changing the card game right under their nose's. Don't think for one minute that this guy works alone. There is a huge amount riding on how this plays out. The rise and fall of nations are being bet on that very table. What a game of human interaction this is. All the other players at the table don't know that this old, little man controls whether they even have a card house to play in.Hope you enjoyed my view from this seat, FOA? "Yes I did. Hope to return in five or ten years, say 1999 or 2000, and visit again.
later FOA
dragonfly
(12/4/99; 9:49:10MDT - Msg ID:20234)
Wickedness in High Places
Though not a fan of St. Paul's I always liked this one from the Epistle to the Ephesians - "Put on the whole armor of God, that ye may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil. For we battle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places. Wherefore take upon you the whole armor of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand."
The secular among us can just substitute Good for God and so forth - that's what I do - it's the content that counts.
Another way to express this depth of being from Friedrich Schiller in William Tell - The Rutli Oath -
No there is a limit to the tyrant's power,
when the opressed can find no justice, when
the burden grows unbearable - he reaches
with hopeful courage up unto the heavens
and seizes hither his eternal rights,
which hang above, inalienable
and indestructible as stars themselves.
The primal state of nature reappears,
where man stands opposite his fellow man.
As a last resort, when not another means
is of avail, the sword is given him.
The highest of all goods we may defend
from violence, Thus stand we before our country,
thus stand we before our wives, our children ...
Now let us take the oath of this new league.
We will become a single land of brothers,
nor shall we part in danger and distress.
We shall be free, just as our fathers were,
and sooner die than live in slavery.
We shall rely upon the highest God
and we shall never fear the might of men.
beesting - msg id 20136
I could do some digging through my personal archives (might take a couple of hours to dig up the articles) to help you with the HSBC question. Back in the late 70's and early 80's I did a bit of organizing for LaRouche and recall an amusing New Solidarity headline that read "NIX BRIT DOPE BANK TAKEOVER" (amusing because Labor Party members used the literature to both raise money and awareness, mostly at 30 second traffic lights at major intersections, and some headlines were better than others in that respect.) Anyway, at the time we were trying to stop the HongShang bank from taking over Marine-Midland on the grounds that it was deeply involved in the dope trade laundry business. I recall that the HongShang bank was also zeroed in on in the book "Dope, Inc." Who knows but that the Executive Intelligence Review web site - another LaRouche publication - might be lashing out again on the same topic 20 years later. They are like pitbulls.
YGM
(12/4/99; 9:32:49MDT - Msg ID:20233)
Dow Comparisons..1929....1987....1999
http://www.fortunecity.de/kraftwerk/rem/23/dj1.html
Relative Comparison of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Performance in 1929, 1987 and 1999
mail comments to: vadovic@aol.com
<Picture>
In decimal scale the DJ seems to go parabolic the last 5 years.
It is possible to obtain much better picture if the index is shown in logarithmic scale. The index values will not be parabolic anymore, they will be linear with some deviations to upside or downside. By doing the linear regression in logarithmic scale, it is possible to obtain the average values of DJ index depending on the time. Also is possible to obtain the mean deviation from the average (the two parallel lines, or "band" where the index can be expected to move. I did analyze values of DJ on monthly closing for 3 time periods
-long-term - from 1915 till end of november 1999
-medium term – from 1978 till end of november 1999
-short term – from 1994 till december 3 1999
<Picture>
If the values of the DJ average leave the "band" there is a tendency to correct.
I did draw a parallel line from the top in 1929 to present time. We are well above the long term band. (Overbought 2.87 above mean value that is 3794). DJ value today equivalent to the peak in 1929 would be approximately DJ = 12914
<Picture>
I did similar thing with the peak in 1987. The present value of that peak would be DJ = 11840
We are well above the medium term band. (Overbought 1.26 above the mean value that is 8631).
<Picture>
However DJ is "oversold" (aproximately 3% below the mean, that is 11616) within the short term band starting in 1994, so the incredible rally have still some room to go. (maybe to 13392?)
Other important number is 9729 that would be extrapolation of 1998 lows. a close below that number might bring correction of the 1987 type and bring DJ into the 7500 range
or the correction of the 1929 type and bring DJ into the 3000 range
These values are purely statistical and do not include any fundamentals whatsoever. They might give a hint if the index is "overbought" or "oversold". I recommend to compare them with the rearview vision after the crash. The analysis was performed december 4, 1999. Will look at it again in about two weeks, or when something interesting will happen.
mail comments to: vadovic@aol.com
Some Milestones
May 26, 1896 Index is launched by Charles Dow at 40.94 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average then had only 12 stocks, not 30.October 28-29, 1929 Stock market crashes at 12.82% and 11.73% back to back (38.33 and 30.57 points), and ushers in the Great Depression.February 8, 1971 NASDAQ Stock Market is born.November 14, 1972 Dow's first close above 1000, called Wall Street's equivalent of breaking the sound barrier.August 12, 1982Birth of the long-term bull market as viewed by some analysts.October 19, 1987 Black Monday crash of record at 22.61% or 508 points.October 11, 1990 Commonly recognized start of current bull market.November 21, 1995 DJIA has first-ever close above 5000 nine months after hitting 4000.May 1996 Centennial of Dow Jones Industrial Average is celebrated.December 5, 1996 Greenspan warns of "irrational exuberance" in markets.October 27-28, 1997 Biggest-ever point loss at 554.26 (but only 7.18%) followed by then-biggest point gain; 337.17 (4.71%)September 8, 1998 Biggest-ever point gain at 380.53, or 4.98%, after seven weeks of declines on global economic turmoil.March 29, 1999 Dow Jones Industrial Average jumps 184.54, or 1.88% to 10006.78 primarily behind tech-stock rally.
******Graphs are shown at the posted site ......YGM,
Just Weight & Measures
(12/4/99; 7:21:15MDT - Msg ID:20232)
@Hipplebeck
What we are up against is a battle of ideas.
One idea says as Lassale (the founder of the German socialist movement) said, "'The state is God.' As such, the state has the power to 'create' unlimited quantities of money and thus to make everybody happy. Intrepid and clear-headed." (from Ludwig von Mises 1965 The Freeman magazine article entitled the "Gold Proplem") So many people today look to the state to provide for their every whim and need from the cradle to the grave. So, I guess the real problem is one of idolatry. As any sane individual knows the state can never replace God.
The battle rages on between those who believe in a free market economy and those who believe in a planned economy. Gold plays a very critical role in this battle of ideas. Again I quote from von Mises, "Governments believe that is is the gold standard's fault alone that their inflationary schemes not only fail to produce the expected benefits, but unavoidably bring about conditions that are considered as much worse than the alleged or real evils they were designed to eliminate. Except for the gold standard, governments are told by pseudo-economists that they could make everybody perfectly prosperous." Yet it is the exsistence of Gold and actually all real assest that people choose to use rather than money that reveals the futility of the socialist ways. So I say do what you said you are going to Hipplebeck, plan for freedom in your own life and don't believe the lie that someone else - civil government - can plan better than you what is best for you, with your money.
Ceasar is not God and he never was!
The Victorian
(12/4/99; 7:08:16MDT - Msg ID:20231)
One More Defense of FOA
As I recall, FOA did say that gold could go down, it could be $20 oz. for a time, but that the price manipulations would be a passing phenomenon. He went on to say that regardless of the price, the VALUE was unchanged. If the value in exchange in the ME or elsewhere is actually $400/oz. but we place a price tag on gold at $20/ oz. what is it's true value? I agree with others who say that other investments have proven more productive in recent years. The problem is, it is difficult to time when dramatic economic changes will take place, and one does not want to be trapped on the outside looking in. I have friends who continually want to "wait and see" whether it be matters concerning troubles related to Y2K, easing back on money invested in the stock market etc. People tend to want PROOF before making a shift in their normal activities. I can foresee many instances when by the time these individuals wait to see the proof they seek, it will be too late. They will be trampled by the herd of others who, like them, have waited to see proof, and were poised to make their move when it happened. People have lost the ability to think for themselves, to make choices that aren't based on what everyone else is doing. We seem to need the constant reassurance of the pack. As far as FOA's predictions of $30,000/oz. I have always viewed the price as unlikely, but the concept sound. And if the price should rise that high, it would be because out whole world is crumbling about us. Indeed, he even pointed out that "when it happens, you won't like it." Even if the $30,000/oz. scenario doesn't play out, gold is making a quiet, behind the scenes comeback, and I believe it will resume it's role as a store of wealth. Will you own it now? Or will you "wait and see?"
Canuck
(12/4/99; 5:55:47MDT - Msg ID:20230)
Sir Town Crier
In a recent message you spoke of USAGOLD/Centennial Metals in an unusual context. Repeatedly you used the phrase "we".
Without any ulterior motive, may I ask the question, do you
have a business realationship with MK?
Hipplebeck
(12/4/99; 5:53:22MDT - Msg ID:20229)
what we are up against
Nato Oecd Imf World Bank Wto just a few terms we are all familiar with. Reality shows that the conspiricy theorists are not far off. There are very rich and powerful people building the structures which will govern on a world scale. They are now experimenting with the military structure. The UN was first tried, but it seems there are too many people there who want international laws that are fair to all. Nato was the next try, succeeding in their efforts in Yugoslavia while circumscribing all international law, making a mockery of the UN and signing agreements with the same intentions as those signed with the native Americans in the old west. There are some very unscrupulous folks making the play for the biggest prize of all. World dominion. In order to have complete control, they absolutely must control the money. Gold is an impediment to them. Their biggest fear is that there is something they will not control. We are all at the crossroads. Will there be a new feudal system with invisible rulers? One great lesson has been learned, they must remain invisible to the people they rule, lest they lose their heads like the French rulers did. There are so many secret meetings going on these days, meetings which we will never know about until after their aims are implemented. The media will not help us, they too are owned. I am taking the advice I learned here on this forum "Be a nation unto yourself" I will defend my sovereignty. I am trying to live by the golden rule in all forms of it's meaning. Spiritual and material. I stand as a timy nation in the face of the beast.
Hipplebeck
(12/4/99; 4:59:14MDT - Msg ID:20228)
stocks and gold lease rates
There is such a frenzy going on to not be left behind in the great rally, is it possible that traders are leasing gold just to get cash for stocks?
Black Blade
(12/4/99; 3:51:23MDT - Msg ID:20227)
Who are these guys kidding?
http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1009-200-1476422.html?tag=st.ne.1009.thed.1009-200-1476422
Gold not glittering as Y2K investment haven
By Reuters
Special to CNET News.com
December 2, 1999, 7:30 a.m. PT
NEW YORK--Blink and you might have missed the brief Y2K gold rush, which fizzled out weeks before any mayhem might arise from programming glitches in the world's computers, analysts said.
Almost none of gold's advance from near 20-year lows in September and October is attributed to safe-haven hoarding of coins and bars before Jan. 1, analysts said. And there has been no speculation that gold would benefit if out-of-date computers wreaked midnight havoc by misreading the last two digits in the year 2000 as 1900, they added.
"Some of the buying was Y2K-related but I don't think it was a significant amount to substantially impact prices," said David Rinehimer, director of commodities research at Salomon Smith Barney. "If anything, it faded as we got close to the end of the year." The ambivalent attitude toward gold in private and central bank portfolios is a millennial reminder that the metal has lost its age-old status as an investment that protects personal wealth and insures national currencies in uncertain times.
Far from serving as shelter against an analog apocalypse, investors who feared disposal plans by the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund and the Swiss National Bank shunned gold for much of 1999; the metal was no longer seen as an important part of monetary reserves. Sentiment strengthened in September after Britain's second bimonthly auction of reserve bullion met surprisingly robust demand, kicking off the rally that hit a two-year high at $338 an ounce two weeks later, after European central banks pledged to curtail their market activities for five years.
But on Monday the third sale of gold under Britain's program to reduce its stockpile by 415 tons to 300 tons was a disappointment. Investors did not jump at the opportunity to buy metal before year-end at a big discount from the highs. "One thing [the auction] shows is gold is clearly not attracting any sort of Y2K interest," said William O'Neill, director of futures research at Merrill Lynch.
Metals research firm CPM Group said in its 1999 Gold Survey that Y2K buying occurred in the first four months of the year, before tapering off in the second and third quarters. According to CPM, sales of the U.S. Eagle gold coin are on track to set record sales volumes in 1999, though no more than one-fifth of these were attributable to investor Y2K buying. Golden Eagle sales reached 1.71 million ounces in the first three quarters, compared to 1.84 million in the whole of 1998.
FideliTrade, a Delaware bullion investment firm, said Eagles were priced at a big premium over Canadian and Australian gold coins because even some sophisticated investors thought U.S. dollar-denominated coins would be handier in any disruption of the economy or financial system on Jan. 1. "If conditions get so bad that cash isn't available for a long term, people think they are going to go to the drug store or grocery store and buy their goods using bullion coins," FideliTrade managing director Michael Clark said. "The one-ounce coin has a $50 face value and goes for over $300. So you are going to buy a $300 item today with the expectation that, first of all, it's going to be negotiable, and secondly, that you are going to negotiate it for $50," he said. "How logical is that?"
Some investors and dealers took positions in futures and options to hedge potential Y2K risk, but are unwinding those structures, fairly confident that systems at U.S. financial firms, utilities and government agencies are ready for the date change in four weeks. "What we saw early in the year was more a move to risk aversion than anything else," said Dinsa Mehta, head of global commodities and foreign exchange options for Chase Manhattan Bank. "As we come up to a very calm year-end, people are finding that they are Over-inventoried in many risk dimensions that would have kept them reversed from Y2K risk," he said.
Netking
(12/4/99; 3:47:59MDT - Msg ID:20226)
Re: Mr Stranger
I guess you are lurking here Mr Stranger even if you're not posting because there is good 'food for thought at this site'.
Sometimes when the hearts on fire sparks will come out of the mouth, but lets keep our communications civil to keep friendships intact and not get anybody's backs up.
I have learnt much on this forum from posters that challenge my own viewpoint & sometimes strengthen it if I don't agree with them. Mr FOA's knowledge of the fundamentals of Gold is to be revered, far be it for me to mock him or any prediction for the future he may make.
Number Six
(12/4/99; 3:47:21MDT - Msg ID:20225)
RECAP!!!
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C9
Date: Tue Nov 30 1999 03:24
Josef (Stone-Gold - the perspectives of gold market have never been better) ID#238188:
Copyright © 1999 Josef/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Details of 15-ECB Decision to Dramatically Reduce Gold Supply
It began with a statement released jointly by European
central banks from Washington, D.C. on Sunday, 26
September 1999 under support of the following
signatories---
The European Central Bank and the central banks of
Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland,
Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain,
Greece, Sweden, Switzerland,and England.
Mr. Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central
Bank, announced the joint Statement on Gold:
"In the interest of clarifying their intentions
with respect to their gold holdings, the above
institutions make the following statement:
1. Gold will remain an important element of global
monetary reserves.
2. The above institutions will not enter the market
as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.
3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved
through a concerted programme of sales over the next
five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately
400 tons and total sales over this period will not
exceed 2,000 tons.
4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed
not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold
futures and options over this period.
5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years."
-------------------------------------------
The initial market reaction was electrifying. Gold rose
26% in just a few days. The unexpected reaction caused draconian problems for some gold mining companies, like Ashanti and Cambior who are heavily short gold through hedging practices which sold many future years' production. Furthermore, it is without one iota of doubt the market's reaction pushed many bullion banks to the very brink of bankruptcy due to their heretofore reckless gold "leasing' operations.
The global house of financial cards was about to
crumble. Consequently, the Gold Cabal was forced to put
a cap on the speed of gold's price increase. This is
quite evident from the following chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C9
It is plainly evident the Gold Cabal has forced the POG
down from it intra-day high of $339 to the $290 area. HOWEVER, the pressure release does not alter the long-term monumental impact of the September 26th decision.
The sensational decision will curtain supply for the
next five years, while burgeoning demand continues to
accelerate. Moreover, there will no longer be threats of
this or that Central Bank dumping bullion on the market.
This psychological war tactic is now passe. Many
heretofore speculators will be drawn to the yellow
market, since the price is still within shouting distance of 20-year lows.
During the last fortnight the POG was intentionally pushed down about 12%, allowing merciful time for
forward selling companies like Ashanti to gain a
reprieve from its "hedging" obligations, and permitting
dangerously overextended bullion banks to cover their
SHORT POSITIONS.
Once sufficient pressure has been relieved, the POG will
commence to relentlessly rise again as a result of the
decision. Also, we may all rest assured the US Fed will
NOT intervene while gold seeks its true market
value...significantly higher than it reached in early
October ( $339 ) .
Here are the rationale supporting the statement the US
Fed will no longer meddle in the gold market. The
15-ECBs would never have made this sea-change reversal
without the full approval and knowledge of the US Fed.
Indicative that the Fed was part of the communication
loop was the fact the announcement was make in
WASHINGTON, DC, and not in England nor Frankfurt
( Headquarters of the ECB ) . And although Greenspan did
not sign the decision, he damn well was there nodding
his approval.
The upshot of the September 26th Gold Accord and
subsequent pressure on the POG is the following. Within
a short period ( time sufficient for all bullion banks
and gold producer SHORTS to cover ) , gold will resume its
bull market posture. This inevitably will draw in the
big Specs, causing wild price surges from time to time -
followed by periods of correction as prices soared too
far and fast.
The gold bull market will last at least the 5-year
duration of the Gold Accord. Frankly, I foresee the 1980
record high of $850/oz being taken out within the next
couple of years. And as the POG continues to gain
momentum, it will attract the investment attention of
the on-line hords of e-Traders, who care naught for PER,
dividend yields nor market to book valuation methods.
All the e-Traders are concerned with is how fast a
security is rising.
I have read somehere that during the latter '70s - when
gold soared 24 times ( $35 to $850 ) - only 50 investors
in every 1000 had positions in gold. Comapare that to
today's 1 in every 1000 who has a position in gold. Due
to the dramatically reduced gold supply for the next
five years vis-a-vis dynamic demand growth, the POG will
rise so spectacularly that it will eventually attract at
least 100 investors in every 1000...if not more.
The 21st Century investor is seeking capital
appreciation, not quarterly dividends. By virture of the
15-ECB decision, the shiny metal has taken on the
investment allure of "GOLD.com." And we all know what
that means!
Journeyman
(12/4/99; 3:40:30MDT - Msg ID:20224)
Duh!
Ah, that's Farfel's message 20190 from yesterday. Regards, J.
Journeyman
(12/4/99; 3:32:31MDT - Msg ID:20223)
Farfel disses Yogi
Farful, in message 2091 you make MANY predictions. I'll bet
good money (gold) that at least 40% of them will prove to
be incorrect. Regards, Journeyman
Black Blade
(12/4/99; 3:17:21MDT - Msg ID:20222)
A Stranger in exile......Oh no!
I also would like to see Stranger return. Sure he was somewhat harsh in his approach to FOA (and others), but he did get my brain cells a "buzzin" at times. I don't necessarily agree with some of his thoughts and analyses, but they sure did provoke some interesting discussion. On the same note, I didn't always agree with FOA either, though sometimes I found myself considering several of his scenaros regarding gold and it's place in our lives. Those who have been reading this forum for some time certainly remember the "jousting matches" between Stranger and Farfel. Sometimes they got a little out of hand, but surely provoked a lot of thought and discussion. I would not think that should result in banishment, a stern warning perhaps. I for one would like to see Stranger reinstated and given back his seat at the Round Table.
Journeyman
(12/4/99; 2:38:07MDT - Msg ID:20221)
My Two Cents on The Stranger
Some days I get cantankerous too. Often a viewpoint that seems to
get supressed for whatever reason gets support and attention it
would lack otherwise. Supression implies such a position may be
embarrassingly true and perhaps can't be refuted in a fair and
open joust. Often this awards an inintended and undeserved
victory. I'm not saying anything specific about the merits of the
particular issue that got The Stranger in hot water, just a
general observation on the effects of supression in general. I
don't believe in swamis or "Authorities" of any sort myself. For
me, a position sinks or swims on it's own merits only. I may pay
attention to information from a previously fruitful source,
however, but realizing we're all human and fallible, and as Yogi
Berra quipped, "Prediction is very difficult, especially of the
future," I expect no one to be correct more than about 60% of the
time, and that includes myself. Now, when you start talking about
timing the markets, nearly everyone who has any smarts or
experience will tell you it simply can't be done to the month,
let alone the day. None the less, Another & FOA sort of left
themselves open to criticism from those looking for that one
infallible guru. Let that be a lesson to any of us who make
predictions -- if I've made any, use them at your own risk. I
hope I made this post ambiguous enough that you can't tell which
side I'm on -- except, though realizing I have no standing in the
issue, IMO it would be a good idea to reinstate The Stranger.
Regards, Journeyman
Netking
(12/4/99; 2:22:03MDT - Msg ID:20220)
Bonedaddy & All - POG True Value(Current)
Good Evening;
Question = What is the true value of the POG?
Answer = Whatever the majority of the market participants in that market believe the value to be is what it will be over in that time horizon. If you change the market participants perceptions of the worth or value of Gold at a particular time parameter then you will change it's value. When the 'Commercials' are net short you will not see "lift off".
Number Six
(12/4/99; 1:38:47MDT - Msg ID:20219)
This is the Don Macalvany y2k discussion - well worth a listen - thanks YGM...
http://www.audiocentral.com/rshows/mir/
Last chance to stock up on food, water, gas... gold...
Mr Gresham
(12/4/99; 0:35:16MDT - Msg ID:20218)
Fed
http://www.nypost.com/business/18993.htm
[snip-snippin' away]
THE FED IS PARANOID ABOUT Y2K
By JOHN CRUDELE
THE Federal Reserve is being driven to distraction by Y2K.
Even as the Central Bank has been publicly tightening monetary conditions through three interest rate hikes this year, it has been quietly pumping money galore just in case the Millennium madness being predicted actually does happen.
Michael Belkin, a Fed expert who writes the Belkin Report, says Alan Greenspan has allowed $70 billion in cash to flood the U.S. monetary system in recent weeks and has created something called a "repo option." These options could leave the monetary system awash in another $426 billion in additional emergency cash in the next few weeks.
"This all adds up to the biggest Fed credit expansion ever. This monetary boost is wildly stimulative for the U.S. equity market in the short term," Belkin says, "but will leave equities painfully vulnerable to a crash once the Y2K-related credit expansion is withdrawn in the new year."
Golden Truth
(12/4/99; 0:29:30MDT - Msg ID:20217)
REGARDING J.A
I would like to second J.A's request, we can't always be living in a $30,000/oz fantasy world, can we?
Thanks J.A i feel very much the same, good points by the way.
I say we let Stranger back on the forum, it's not totally fair, the guy is trying to get to the truth in this whole mess. Can you blame him for that???
Howdy Stranger, i,am still in your inflation camp, now more than ever!
G.T
Bonedaddy
(12/4/99; 0:27:58MDT - Msg ID:20216)
Dow 50,000 by May
When they find out how to burn water, And the gasoline car is gone.
When an airplane flies without any fuel, And the satellite heats our home.
One of these days when the air clears up, And the sun comes shinin' thru.
We'll all be drinkin' that free bubble-up, And eatin' that Rainbow Stew.
Eatin' Rainbow Stew in a silver spoon underneath that sky of blue.
We'll all be drinkin' that free bubble-up, And eatin' that Rainbow Stew.
-- from a Merle Haggard tune.
JA
(12/4/99; 0:04:34MDT - Msg ID:20215)
Stranger's Banishment
Michael
I think you were way too harsh on Stranger. I believe he is a poster that has contributed significantly to this forum. He brings a point of view and perspective that increases the composite knowledge base available here. I tend to view this forum somewhat like a large family, siblings will tend to have differences of opinion and even use harsh words at times. In my family when that happens we don't banish the members.
Stranger happens to be one member of this round table that is rather frank and say's what is on his mind. I suspect some of that may be from his time in the New York Banking World, some of that demeanor was probably necessary for survival.
The other thing I have noticed is this forum seems to be somewhat self correcting. If someone makes a comment that comes across as offensive, there seems to be a number of voices that are more than willing to call it to the offending member's attention which tends to have a correcting influence. I have also noticed that at times some of the correcting voices are guilty of the same thing they find offensive in the comments of others. None of us are perfect but most of are likely a little better or a little more knowledgeable for having visited here.
One Last point, I have like many others at this forum found that that writings of Another and FOA to add an interesting perspective. I believe Another started posting two years ago and his writings came across to me as if he thought the events were imminent. I have read "In the Footsteps of Giants" and most of their postings and it is clear to me that they both thought the events they were predicting would have transpired by now or at least be well along the path. I suspect they would both readily admit their timing has been off.
Stranger was pointing out the fact that their timing has not been very accurate. There are a number at this forum that suggest timing does not matter if one buys physical gold because gold will eventually go up. I don't buy that notion, I am aware of people who have been holding physical for the past twenty years. Most alternative investment mediums would have been better.
I have not taken the time to go back and read the writings of Another and FOA. However some of the ideas and statements that I seem to recall were as follows.
The Euro would gain on the dollar.
Physical Gold would rise in price while paper gold would lose value
285 was the bottom and gold would not fall below that point
The paper gold market might drive physical gold to extremely low dollar values
Physical gold will go to $30,000 an ounce.
In the end whether one views gold as an investment or insurance the real question is did it accomplish it's purpose. If an investment, we could have done better in most other mediums, if insurance, we could buy the insurance for less today. Since 1997 when Another began posting buying physical gold and holding has not served us well. However I am not ready to discount all of the writings of Another or FOA and would like to continue to hear their viewpoints. I would also like to continue to hear from Stranger and allow him to ask pointed questions.
Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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