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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/4/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. elevator guy (10/04/99; 23:56:34MDT - Msg ID:15468) COMEX den of thieves How come the COMEX traders can demand "X" amount of dollars, when I want to buy something, but now that I want to sell that same thing, they say "no limit orders"Where is the fairness in that?Boy is that a one-way rigged game!But in other news, how do you think we should be setting ourselves up for the coming fall of the DOW, fall of the dollar, rise of the Euro? I guess there is a sea change going on in our economy, that will last through 2000, and hang around for years.Obviously, the safest place to store value is gold. Especially now, and while the dollar slides.But assuming the dollar doesn't absolutely dry up and blow away, which is reasonable to think that it wont, we can still make profits denominated in dollars. Good profits. I guess we can short everything that we think will go down.I'm kinda new to this investment stuff. Any thoughts out there on this? Voyager (10/04/99; 23:42:28MDT - Msg ID:15467) Cmax - Hello Yes, I understand that the GPS rollover and Y2K are not related. It was a facetious shot at the extreme Y2K doomsday crowd. Do not have the ability to connect to Internet via any method except by cell phone at sea. Very slow and expensive. Don't use.Have been reading other posts. Many, many, banks, firms, people, have tremendous loss potential at the rising POG. What kind of counter attack can be expected? Seems that if POG keeps going up, little can be done to prevent a major toilet flushing. Not that they don't deserve it. Any thoughts? Simply Me (10/04/99; 23:20:02MDT - Msg ID:15466) megatron - re: USA Bashing It sounds, to me, like sibling rivalry. Little brother is tired of getting picked on by big brother, and worse, sometimes even having to wear his handme downs! So little brother takes small revenges whenever he can. Nothing serious. Big brother knows it's only a matter of time and potential before everything is equalized, so he taunts little brother while he still can. (Little Brother is not so little anymore!) But if you take a look around the neighborhood, Little Brother and Big Brother are more like each other, and closer in basic ideals, than anyone else in the world. They grew up together. They may disagree on a lot of things; but when the chips are down, I believe these brothers (US and Canada) will prove to be each others' best friends. (Except for Quebec?) Chris Powell (10/04/99; 23:09:30MDT - Msg ID:15465) Panic buying in Australia http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/233.html? The gold wildfire sweeps the world. THX-1138 (10/04/99; 23:07:21MDT - Msg ID:15464) previous post Got that off of Kitco.By the way, how would someone go about inserting a gold clause into a house or car sale?And if you actually had someoen pay you gold what would be the reporting requirements?Do you report it using the coin face value (US Eagles $50) or spot price? THX-1138 (10/04/99; 23:04:08MDT - Msg ID:15463) Court confirms that Gold is money. Conseco Unit Loses Court Fight, Must Pay Iowa Rent in Gold Washington, Oct. 4 ( Bloomberg ) -- A unit of Conseco Inc. failedtooverturn a court order that increased its rent on a Des Moines, Iowa,officebuilding by about 1,500 percent -- and required payment in gold coins. Siding with a family of modern-day prospectors, the U.S. SupremeCourttoday rejected an appeal by Conseco Annuity Assurance Co. The decisionleaves intact a lower court order to pay $1.8 million in back rent, plusabout$370,000 a year until 2016, on the Des Moines Building. Today's action ends an unusual legal battle that saw the buildingowners, descendants of businessman John Trostel, invoke a World WarI-eralease provision letting them demand lease payments in gold. Conseco, aninsurer andconsumer lender based in Carmel, Indiana, argued unsuccessfully that theprovision long ago had ceased to have any legal significance. Conseco predicted in court papers that the lower-court ruling will``ignite a modern-day gold rush'' that could benefit landlords withsimilarleases. When the 99-year lease was signed in 1917, gold clauses were commoncontractual provisions that protected property owners againstfluctuationsin the value of the dollar. Congress and President Franklin D. Rooseveltbanned goldclauses in 1933 as part of their efforts to devalue the dollar andinflateprices.Revised Law In 1977 Congress changed the law so that new leases could includegoldclauses. Although that law by itself didn't affect the Des MoinesBuildinggold clause, the Trostel family said the transfer of the contract toConsecoAnnuity's corporate predecessor, American Life & Casualty Insurance Co.,created a new lease and revived the gold provision. The St. Louis-based 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed,sayingConseco had to pay its rent in gold. A federal trial judge thenconcludedthat the company owed almost 6,000 troy ounces in back rent and almost100ounces per month until the lease expires. At current gold prices, theannualrent will be more than 15 times the $23,000 paid until 1993. At the Supreme Court, Conseco argued unsuccessfully that theappealscourt misconstrued the 1977 law. Today's decision marks the third timethenation's top tribunal has reviewed an appeal by Conseco on variousissues in thecase. Trostel family lawyer Jim Doran said his clients probably won'tdemandthat Conseco actually deliver gold coins. ``As a matter of negotiation,wewould probably agree to a cash equivalent,'' he said. Conseco, based in Carmel, Indiana, acquired American Life in 1996andmoved the unit's headquarters out of Des Moines. Much of the building isnowvacant.The case is Conseco Annuity Assurance v. Trostel, 98-1796.Oct/04/1999 10:15 ( C ) Copyright 1999 Bloomberg L.P. Any redistribution of Bloomberg content, including by framing orsimilar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consentofBloomberg L.P. Any reference to the material must be properlyattributed to BloombergNews. Chris Powell (10/04/99; 22:53:04MDT - Msg ID:15462) An appeal and a warning from GATA http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/232.html? Includes latest intelligencefrom GATA Chairman Bill "Midas" Murphy. nickel62 (10/04/99; 22:51:49MDT - Msg ID:15461) Power of the up move is tremendous I have never seen anything like the relentless nature of this up move since mid august of 1982 when as a young portfolio manager with too much cash I watched an exploding stock market beginning lift off from the 770 on the DOW level where it had been range bound since 1968. It took me several months and a few kicks in the pants from older portfolio managers to realize that things had changed. I had been surviving by selling every rise and waiting for the market to come back down as it always had for the few years I had been in the business. This was different-this was a bull market. And as on of the old guys snarled at me "you don't trade stocks in a bull market you idiot you own them" I never did like that guy but it was very good advice. Well gentlemen we are in a bull market and one that is only days old. I pray I have the brains and guts to "own 'em" this time because I'm getting pretty old and there may not be many more chances to be in at the beginning of a full bull cycle. Farfel (10/04/99; 22:31:55MDT - Msg ID:15460) Where Have All the KITCO Posters Gone? "Where have all the KITCO posters gone?Long time passingWhere have all the KITCO posters gone?Long time ago"All the negative gold hypesters, from Disney to Jims to EB to LGB to Jeil to Selby...they don't seem to be posting much lately over at that forum. Amazing what a vertical gold rush can do to those who bet against the phenomenon or refused to recognize the initial power of its manifestation.Does it have legs?Hmmmmm, well powerful forces are sure to intervene and oppose the rally. The big question is: when?My own pet theory is this: I think that the general market (stocks and bonds) must be taken down or else various sectoral inflationary explosions will be enormous. You can only fudge the economic stats for so long, but at a certain point, reality slaps you in the face. So, I tend to believe that this little gold rush is sanctioned, if not encouraged, by Greenspan and gang. They need to raise interest rates to stem sectoral inflation and protect the Dollar, and gold's current upspike serves to validate an interest rate hike. At the same time, Big Money needs a repository of safety and since gold is held by such a small percentage of the population, then gold should become that favored repository for the wealthy. Over time, maybe in another several months, the average investor will begin to dip his toes into the gold market. However, judging from my own empirical observations, the average investor still has little to no clue what is going on with precious metals today. The mainstream media has ensured that this gold verticality is occurring without any ballyhoo or great publicity.Until the small investor gets tuned in, then it's all "wall of worry" stuff, and there will be many gold bears who will have their asses handed to them as they continuously try and pick a top on the developing gold mania.As for myself, well, I continue to stay away from gold for the most part, waiting to see the BUY volumes escalate to a point indicating enough populist BUY pressure to overcome any interventionist efforts by the major central banks.For those who worry about the disastrous effects to certain gold shorting bullion banks...and for those who figure Fed intervention is certain to preclude this problem, well, I am doubtful and cynical (as usual). Why? Because I think there are likely powerful, relatively healthy investment firms with great influence at the Fed and they would eagerly greet a debacle amongst various gold shorting bullion banks so that they can swoop in and pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar -- No different than the game hedged gold miners played as they picked up the remains of collapsed unhedged gold producers over the past few years.In conclusion, I believe that the average investor has been brainwashed to believe that gold has been one of history's most severely underperforming assets. So until gold can breach 800 an ounce (its Carter Era high point), then anti-gold propagandists can continue to note its inability to rise above its 20 year old price vs. stocks that are far ahead of their 20 year old prices. The anti-gold crowd can continue support the idea that gold is a "forever underperformer" vs. paper assets.When gold breaks 800, then and only then, will I feel notably emboldened to get into gold in a big way. That should be the populist trigger where ALL anti-gold propaganda no longer holds water nor has any notable effect.Gold finally PERFORMS above 800, and it should move to 2000 or higher (IF it can ever get there).We have a long way to go before that happens. ThanksF* Tubac's ears (10/04/99; 22:28:55MDT - Msg ID:15459) 16Penny Are you from Ruidoso? My father is a builder there and gets his net access through zianet as well. TO ALL: WHAT'S WITH SILVER?????!!!!!!!!!!!! Peter Asher (10/04/99; 22:10:15MDT - Msg ID:15458) OLD GOLD !!!! re GATA ARE YOU GOING TO TELL US ABOUT THIS, OR ARE YOU TRYING TO KEEP US UP ALL NIGHT ? ? ? Goldfly (10/04/99; 22:09:54MDT - Msg ID:15457) Scot, Cavan Man, CB2, DD "When I received the Nobel Prize, the only big lump sum of money I have ever seen, I had to do something with it. The easiest way to drop this hot potato was to invest it, to buy shares. I knew that World War II was coming and I was afraid that if I had shares which rise in case of war, I would wish for war. So I asked my agent to buy shares which go down in the event of war. This he did. I lost my money and saved my soul." Albert Szent-Gyorgyi Black Blade (10/04/99; 21:53:49MDT - Msg ID:15456) For our English Goldbug friends "Shorts" in American could be similar to "knickers" in English. Black Blade (10/04/99; 21:50:25MDT - Msg ID:15455) Info on Shorts "dropped", more is exposed! (Pun intended) The overall content of the article on the link posted was that of several analysts are beginning to seriously believe the rumors of short positions, and one claims that LTCM really was short 300+ tons Au, irregargless of their (LTCM)denials. The consensus is that there is really at least an overall 4000 ton short position, and possibly greater. Black Blade (10/04/99; 21:40:47MDT - Msg ID:15454) all Sorry, I guess you need a trial membership for the link that I posted. Anyway, Megatron...the J. Candy quote was from the movie "Canadian Bacon". Also the greatest put-down of Canada was about the beer, but I digress. Personally I like Moosehead. GFD (10/04/99; 21:38:34MDT - Msg ID:15453) Hot in Hongkong Well we seem to be going parabolic upon opening in the Hongkong market. Lessee here... 100 mil oz of 390 calls at say spot at 340, say, tomorrow morning... how many of those were naked did you say?? :o If Al does not shoot this thing down first thing tomorrow start worrying about a more real crises brewing somewhere else, maybe related maybe not... 16-penny (10/04/99; 21:36:25MDT - Msg ID:15452) (No Subject) alls well zianet has been touch and go in southern NM Black Blade (10/04/99; 21:36:11MDT - Msg ID:15451) all http://www.thestreet.com/comment/taskmaster/789110.html Tonight is lookin' good...POG spot at 329.5 and no down-side on Kitco charts.Scot, RossL, and Coinguy, Yes Krugers are nice design, but the color is butt-ugly. Personally I buy mapleleafs. Even Eagles pale in comparison. Sorry, but I prefer the brilliance of 24K as opposed to the low-budget imitations, and I'm US citizen, so patriotism doesn't play with me. Interesting article on the street.com about short positions in Au. The above link should get you there, if not, then search the site. Megatron, as John Candy (who was canadian) said "Canada? isn't that the 51st state?" ORO (10/04/99; 21:27:33MDT - Msg ID:15450) Bollinger Bands Invented by John Bollinger (www.equitytrader.com).The bands above and below the average over a period, usually 20 days on a dayly chart.Upper band = average + n Standard deviationsLower band = average - n Standard deviationsn usually taken as 2Easy to do on spread sheets.Usage:Breakouts: Upper band break out after a steady market is a statistically significant event indicating that the new trend (in the direction of the breakout) is underway. As in "a gold market not as before"Temporary spike tops and bottoms occur when the band is broken in the direction of the trend in a "blowoff" vertical fashion. The temporary top is usually arround the same distance away from the upper band as the upper band is away from the average.Trending: A powerful bull trend appeats as prices moving along the upper band. A powerfull bear trend appears as prices moving along the botom band.Reversal: Spike tops as above, round tops are seen as a reversal between the bands, above the average but below the upper band. Volatility: The width of the bands relative to the price level is an indication of volatility (usually measured as the standard deviation). Also the narrowing of the bands (low volatility) is commonly a precursor to high volatility. Thus a very narrow BB is an indication of a large move ahead. Narrow volatility and the spike are the strongest/most reliable indicators. Breakouts can be misleading, with no followthrough. SteveH (10/04/99; 21:18:36MDT - Msg ID:15449) Last post till morning Me thinks the charts look ready for a breakout...me thinks. Mind the Gap. SteveH (10/04/99; 21:15:14MDT - Msg ID:15448) Bollinger Two-standard deviations or so either side of the price that depending on the measurement has a propensity to watch the underlying security trade within the bands whereby they go from one to the other with a fair degree of regularity. However, when a stock or security or gold in this case approaches then breaks through a new level is usually attained after which the in band up and down cyclicals recommence in earnest. We are see a rally of rallies in gold right now and the approachment and break out of the bollingers is just another indicator that the rally is a hot one. Goldfly (10/04/99; 21:10:46MDT - Msg ID:15447) YO! Hey YO! Check it out Spot $330.30!!!!! oldgold (10/04/99; 20:39:47MDT - Msg ID:15446) Fed intervention? GATA warning about the POSSIBILITY of imminent intervention by the Fed to save the gold shorts. oldgold (10/04/99; 20:39:07MDT - Msg ID:15445) Fed intervention? GATA warning about the POSSIBILITY of imminent intervention by the Fed to save the gold shorts. SteveH (10/04/99; 20:19:33MDT - Msg ID:15444) Maverick, were not going verticle are we? The 60-minute chart on www.quote.com gc9z is starting look exponential. She may be about to blow. Clear the launch pad, 10,9,8,7,6,5.... Cmax (10/04/99; 20:11:53MDT - Msg ID:15443) Voyager Don't confuse the GPS calendar rollover with a Y2K event, the two are very different. As an analogy, the GPS rollover is more like a preprogrammed rollover from 12-31-99 to 1-1-(19)00. It's "calendar" never leaves it's present "century", and just continues in a time loop. It also has nothing to do with a "two digit" year or a "four digit" year. Your boat: are you downloading the web off SSB, or Comsat? 16-penny (10/04/99; 20:11:38MDT - Msg ID:15442) (No Subject) cant seem to download todays discustion Cmax (10/04/99; 20:10:43MDT - Msg ID:15441) Voyager (10/4/99; 0:39:32MDT - Msg ID:15346) Don't confuse the GPS calendar rollover with a Y2K event, the two are very different. As an analogy, the GPS rollover is more like a preprogrammed rollover from 12-31-99 to 1-1-(19)00. It's "calendar" never leaves it's present "century", and just continues in a time loop. It also has nothing to do with a "two digit" year or a "four digit" year. Your boat: are you downloading the web off SSB, or Comsat? Cavan Man (10/04/99; 20:09:43MDT - Msg ID:15440) SteveH What is a bollinger?Also, the other argument again; oil monetizes gold utilizing the Euro for transportation to the goal. What to do with all the dollars?I have a real hard time disbelieving FOA/Another especially after they have been picked over by the likes of you and ORO et al. megatron (10/04/99; 20:08:49MDT - Msg ID:15439) USA People who want to see the US take a dive have strange thought patterns, I've always said. It's impossible to defend idiots like ClintonRubinGreenspan, but nothing is easier than defending the American Constitution, in it's original intent and form. Only an envious liberal would deny the genius that allowed the creation of the free markets we enjoy, although lately some havn't been all that "free'.Here in Canada, US bashing is second only to hockey in terms of recreation. I find it pathetic and sad. Cavan Man (10/04/99; 20:08:11MDT - Msg ID:15438) SteveH What is a bollinger?Also, the other argument again; oil monetizes gold utilizing the Euro for transportation to the goal. What to do with all the dollars?I have a real hard time disbelieving FOA/Another especially after they have been picked over by the likes of you and ORO et al. Cavan Man (10/04/99; 20:07:52MDT - Msg ID:15437) SteveH What is a bollinger?Also, the other argument again; oil monetizes gold utilizing the Euro for transportation to the goal. What to do with all the dollars?I have a real hard time disbelieving FOA/Another especially after they have been picked over by the likes of you and ORO et al. SteveH (10/04/99; 20:01:48MDT - Msg ID:15436) Maverick, were not going verticle are we? The 60-minute chart on www.quote.com gc9z is starting look exponential. She may be about to blow. Clear the launch pad, 10,9,8,7,6,5.... SteveH (10/04/99; 20:00:56MDT - Msg ID:15435) Maverick, were not going verticle are we? The 60-minute chart on www.quote.com gc9z is starting look exponential. She may be about to blow. Clear the launch pad, 10,9,8,7,6,5.... SteveH (10/04/99; 19:59:55MDT - Msg ID:15434) Maverick, were not going verticle are we? The 60-minute chart on www.quote.com gc9z is starting look exponential. She may be about to blow. Clear the launch pad, 10,9,8,7,6,5.... SteveH (10/04/99; 19:59:38MDT - Msg ID:15433) Maverick, were not going verticle are we? The 60-minute chart on www.quote.com gc9z is starting look exponential. She may be about to blow. Clear the launch pad, 10,9,8,7,6,5.... SteveH (10/04/99; 19:55:41MDT - Msg ID:15432) Maverick, were not going verticle are we? The 60-minute chart on www.quote.com gc9z is starting look exponential. She may be about to blow. Clear the launch pad, 10,9,8,7,6,5.... SteveH (10/04/99; 19:51:50MDT - Msg ID:15431) tough subject www.gold-eagle.com from YGM:(YGM) Oct 04, 19:45 Remember there's still a dark side in the mix. If you don't think Bankers are worried study all the press releases at the B.I.S. site. I have for along time and itcomes down to this---- They are preparing for-------Bank defaults---Hedge fund collapses---Credit and debt squeezes---Bank cash runs etc etc***If you read between the lines and all the double talk the future of PAPER after Y2K looks pretty grim. Want to venture a guess as to how much Gold the BIS and other Central Banks have accumulated over the years that they've let the many Gold borrowers and shorters run wild? Remember CBs' are where the richest and most powerful place their bets and we all know he who has the most Gold makes the rules. Want to guess how many defaults there will be soon on Gold deliveries and futures contracts. I don't but it will be mind boggling ifindeed there are 10-14000 tonnes sold short!!!!!Anyway I now also own alot of paper but I'm only counting on my physical metal while the eggs lay unhatched. Paper is only good for firestarter til it's turned into Gold!!!--YGM.nttp://www.bis.org/home.htm SteveH (10/04/99; 19:46:18MDT - Msg ID:15430) Original Rember the Bill Murphy rumor of the SA mines announcing they would limit production. Was that the announcement or was that the rumor? If it was the rumor then the SWHTF when the rumor comes out because the ECB announcement knocked gold up...what...$30? The limit on production announcement could have an even more exponential affect, eh? SteveH (10/04/99; 19:43:49MDT - Msg ID:15429) Fact is there are lots of excellent posts about this evening... and I see ORO and a few of us others are sharing the wealth (info): Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 19:01NewPhys (Something Nasty this way comes!) ID#392177:Copyright © 1999 NewPhys/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedJP: I regretfully think you are right. This rapid a rise in the price of gold is unprecedented. The equity markets will continue along for some time, blissfully ignorant of the damage being done to the investment banking sector. Shockwaves will eventually pass through the rest of the world's economy, unless the CB's step in and sell gold. But -- what concessions would the US have to make for the European CB's to do this? It will be interesting to see what happens to the US dollar, and US interest rates. Will we have a warning shot across the bow like we did in 1987, when the US dollar dropped more than 5% in a few days? I am beginning to suspect things could evolve very quickly. The 'information era' -- the 'awakening' of the net appears to have accelerated time. Or, at least the nonlinear events. I'll bet there are some Rothschilds who are watching with glee at the capitulation of the US -- goldwise, that is. Eventually the BIS will step in. For a price. SteveH (10/04/99; 19:38:51MDT - Msg ID:15428) Some reposts www.kitco.com HI ALL, WHAT A DAY/NIGHT (ANGEL) Oct 04, 20:27 Bigdog thought I would go with DROOY ,HARMONY, and DAY, meeting with broker tomorrow I know they've had quite a run up but I think this has just started. I couldn't get any options, they're still not taking any limit orders, its strange to watch the screen and see people being skided, Jesse James never did so well. CNBC actually did an interview with a woman from one of the big banks ( sorry I didn't catch the names I came in on the middle) she actually talked about the hedgers problems and admitted they weren't clear yet. She looked as if she swallowed a pickle the whole time. By the way has anyone heard any more on the problems at the comex ? I heard they had thousands of orders hanging out unable to be filled. Le Metropole members,At the moment, the price of gold is trying to take outthe critical $315 area. If it can close above $315 spotlook out. One month lease rates are over 5%. Bulliondealers are fealing great stress."Left Flank" on a roll today. This is the timeto keep the pressure on the shorts. Pay back time!This just in:THE FIX WAS IN: BRITS ROLLED ON GOLDBy John CrudeleNew York PostOctober 4, 1999THE price of gold soared last week after a number of Central Banks said they won't unload extra gold onto the open market for the next five years. The precious metal jumped to $329 an ounce, up almost 30 percent. We outsiders will probably never know what prompted the statement by the 15 governments. But it is very interesting that an outfit called the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, headed by former pro footballer Bill Murphy, recently hired lawyers in Britain and enlisted the help of Parliamentary members to find out if the price of the precious metal was being purposely kept down. Why England? Because the Bank of England announced last May that it was going to sell tons of gold on the open market. Whenever there's a big seller like that it obviously keeps the price down - whether it's gold or dog biscuits. "It just raised the whole issue of what was going on. It's real simple," said Murphy. "The powers that be went to the English government and said we can't let gold go above $290." That, of course, isn't the way markets are supposed to work. So Murphy's group - headquartered down in Houston but reaching farther through an website - pestered members of Parliament to bring up the gold sale for debate, which occurred this past June. Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, got a copy of the Parliament debate in July. Was Murphy the one who started the ball rolling that eventally caused the 15 banks to announce that they were laying off gold? We'll never know. But it's as good a guess as any right now. It looks as if someone manipulated gold prices again last week. Despite being at $329 an ounce in the early part of last week, gold closed at just under $300 an ounce on Thursday. The strike price on gold futures contracts just happens to be $300 an ounce. The very next day gold went back up to around $311 an ounce. End WEBMASTER'S NOTE:In order to improve the operation of the Cafe, an add some exciting new services, we will be in a 'construction' phase for the next few weeks on and off. We don't expect this will cause much disruption. Part of the changes are some badly needed repairs, and some will result in greatly increased speed plus some new features we promised.Please email Webmaster@LeMetropoleCafe.com if you encounter WEB SITE problems and direct any CONTENT-related email to Bill using his LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com email address.Thanks for your patience and support.One additional note from me. Geoff, our new webmaster, isdoing a terrific job. You will see why soon. Unfortunately, some of you that signed up to the Cafe lastyear are being greated with a terse payment request that insome cases is premature. We cannot change that, but if youget one, please contact Geoff Barnes, our new webmaster, andhe will make everything right for you.One other note. In the wee hours of this coming Saturdaymorning, the site may be down for major hardwaremaintenance.<A HREF="http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/scripts/products.cfm">Le Metropole Cafe</A>All the best,Bill MurphyLe Patronwww.LeMetropoleCafe.comLe Metropole members,Yes, the "Left Flank" continues to gain ground. Great coverage from savvy South African journalist,Jonathon Rosenthal.>From Business Day, Cape Times, October 1st, 1999.INSIDE MINING - Jonathan RosenthalMartin Armstrong the bear is deep in the woodsWho is Martin Armstrong, what is Princeton Economics International and what does it matter anyhow? These are probably normal and healthy responses in the colonies when we learn that another US hedge fund manager is up on fraud charges.So what if this one-time financial guru and darling of the market took about $1 billion from Japanese investors and now has about $46 million left in the bank. So what if he gave his depositors false accounts and now has three regulatory agencies from two countries baying for his blood.In the new economic order hedge funds going belly up in the US are almost as common as cellphone thefts down here.Except that quite a few prominent people in the gold market are convinced that Armstrong was really short on gold. Depending on who you ask he was short anything from 300 tons to 800 tons. And some believe that he sold short at about the $260 to $265 mark and has incurred further hair-raising paper losses of $30 an ounce over the past few weeks.And if Armstrong really was that short of gold, a point Princeton Economics denied in a statement it released last week, it could have profound implications for the gold price. The court-appointed managers now trying to salvage his fund could be forced to cover the position through buying up 300 to 800 tons in an ever-tightening market.Brett Kebble, the deputy chairman of JCI Gold, said he believed Armstrong had run up a short position of 800 tons."Martin Armstrong has been bearish about gold and has been writing furiously about what a terrible investment it is. He has been short on gold for some time," Kebble said.The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, a campaigning organisation that argues the gold price has been the victim of massive manipulation by powerful financial interests, believed Armstrong had borrowed or was short to the tune of 746 tons.Others suggested that while Armstrong was likely to have gone short, as he repeatedly wrote opinion pieces and argued that the gold price was likely to fall to $200 an ounce, they found it hard to believe that his short position could be so large.Garry Mead, the head of reasearch at the World Gold Council, said he would be surprised to find that Armstrong's fund had run up a position of that size.Michael Coulson, head of mining research at Paribas in London, said he would not be surprised to find Armstrong short but suggested that a position of no more than 300 tons was more realistic.The US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, one of three watchdog bodies that filed legal action against Armstrong, refused to comment on his position. The Securities Exchange Commission was more helpful but had no idea what positions he might have taken in the commodities market.The haggle about the size of Armstrong's position is not simply an esoteric search for truth, but could play a large role in determining how far the rally in the gold price could go.Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), the commodities research group, estimates that the total size of the net speculative short position in the market is probably not much more than 400 or 500 tons. That's not counting the several thousand tons of gold that producers have sold forward. GFMS admits that if the short position is significantly larger than it believes it to be, then gold could rally to $400 or even $500 an ounce.If Armstrong is indeed short of gold, even by only 300 tons, then it implies that the GFMS figures underestimate the short position hanging over the market. This then opens the door to some pretty wild assumptions as to the size of the total position. Kebble believes it could be as large as 4,000 tons, which implies a large number of funds are in a tight spot right now.If that is the case then there will simply not be enough gold avilable on the physical market to cover those positions. Huge hedge funds would be unable to meet their margin calls as the price rises.The ensuing crisis would make the collapse of Long Term Capital Management look like a walk in the park.<A HREF="http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/scripts/products.cfm">Le Metropole Cafe</A>All the best,Bill MurphyLe Patronwww.LeMetropoleCafe.comDate: Mon Oct 04 1999 19:11ORO (@EJ - Old words from the BIS) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedThe thing they thought they could do, was to make the decision, on the part of the world as a whole, as to what is money. They discovered, the hard and embarassing way, that the markets decide what is money, not CBs or governments. What success they may have in pushing the paper currencies over the PMs requires constant work in an environment of fluctuating debt loads and exchange rates. Their opinions are allways wrong so that eventually, somewhere, they end up introducing a large distortion in the markets/economy, ending with a bubble like today's stocks, accompanied by artificial depression, as in commodities and gold. Their control one day is the best indicator of their loosing it on the next day, when their control mechanism backfires. Bonedaddy (10/04/99; 19:38:25MDT - Msg ID:15427) Leigh No, I'm on Rocky Mountain Time. No traffic or streetlights here. Sometimes the antelope come in the yard and the dog barks. Then I rise with the east coast. Bloomberg is good TV at 04:00. Glad you're better. Chris Powell (10/04/99; 19:38:04MDT - Msg ID:15426) NY Post credits GATA for Euro CB action http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/230.html? John Crudele's Monday column. Chris Powell (10/04/99; 19:36:44MDT - Msg ID:15425) NY Post credits GATA for Euro CB action http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/230.html? John Crudele's columnin Monday's NY Post.http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/230.html? ORO (10/04/99; 19:33:06MDT - Msg ID:15424) Reposts CB2 thanks - Cavan Man thanks for reminding me.Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 18:56ORO (@Surfer Mine defaults) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedLong term the mine defaults will only hurt overhedged miners, causing their assets to come to market, where all the golden sharks will come to feast. So far, not too many medium/larger companies are in trouble. Many may refinance long term hedges given half a chance, even if survival would be a touch and go situation. If SEQUIN has it right, and my data indicate that is an understatement, then there will be a general dump of all miners, then a quick reversal in the unhedged, or lightly hedged survivors. I try to buy only those mines that have no hedges, or mines with hedges covering a small portion of production and having multiple mines ( so that closure of a mine would not be a disaster ) . Right now I am looking for "goat pasture" gold explorers, open to suggestions. Checked out MYNG, I see a 100% to 200% dilution at the POG $300-$350 range before they produce their first ounce. So at current prices, with intentions and capacity to produce 16000 to 35000 Oz per year at 150 to 250 margins, I'd say that comes to 5-10c present value per share in the current POG range, and if they are very lucky in financing, it might be worth up to 20c. Things get interesting if POG holds over $350. Right now they have weak claims for a large gravel deposit and have to fix their debt as well as financing a mine. The weak claims would prevent an agreement with a major, say PDG/NEM. Maybe a non-distressed medium size producer would take them on. Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 18:49SEQUIN (On the other hand , ) ID#25171:Copyright © 1999 SEQUIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedderivatives books are so screwed that to protect them bulion banks had to buy an aggregated 15 M oz ( this doesn't take into account mine or spec buybacks ) If Gold goes back down , they will have to sell back . If it goes up again , they will have to buy again : sounds too bad to be true ? It is the principle of gamma minus which I explained here a year ago ( give or take a few months ! ) So why not cut the position ? The problem is that in normal time , it is easy to find liquidity in options to buy 1 to 2 M oz of a strike without moving the market too much . Now , with 100 000 oz you clean the offers and you have to go 2 % vol higher to find the next offer . Since most of the option market makers have open positions in the tens of million of oz , it is just impossible . The conclusion is that we will have very violent moves up and down with a bias toward the upside since the 100 M oz gorilla is looming around at 290 . Very sharp pullbacks are possible due to this derivatives positions and most risk managers are waiting for the first defaults in the next 2 months. You can trust banks to try to cover it up but since I have the best of info , I will make sure that you know about it . Look at GCZ9 now , and smile . ( up 4 to 322 as I write this piece ) THKS Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 18:12SEQUIN (Goldman 's) ID#25171:Copyright © 1999 SEQUIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedOption trader got fired . You guys can't even start to imagine how much blood there is . Bullion banks are in panic mode : derivative positions too big to cover , no liquidity , fear about medium size mine defaults because of overhedging and margin calls . Very bad words in board rooms these days. Banks hesitate to be the one who pulls the trigger on mines since they could start a cascading default chain reaction. UBS is dead. Goldman is dead. Morgan is sh*tting razor blades but not dead yet . Morgan stanley disappeared from radar screen. They NEEEEED Gold to go down . There is about 1 year production of buy order between 280 / 295 If these guys start to panic it might get interesting . But too much blood is not always the best you can hope for : Beware of CBs stepping in . If there are small to medium mines defaulting , we could see contagion on the XAU. So I would prefer an orderly rise . I know this is too much to ask for and I am a little bit excited. THKS Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 19:33Silverbaron (Did the Fed bail out Goldman Sux?) ID#290456:This one especially for SEQUIN "Goldman is dead"... Gold producers forced to rejig hedge books http://196.36.119.130/miningwebgold.nsf/Current/422567D9004530DF4225680000724BF6?OpenDocumentDate: Mon Oct 04 1999 21:18ORO (@EJ @Old Gold) ID#71231:EJ - exctically one second too late. Austrians still have to come up with a less painful transition scheme. Old Gold - If economists saw this, why didn't they suggest some way to get arround it? Perhaps the Emperors of Rome wanted not to hear of the future belittlement of their pricipality?Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 19:40OLD GOLD (How the US has Benefitted from the Global Crisis) ID#242325:Copyright © 1999 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedExcerps from a recent academic study on the globasl financial system. After reading this I wonder why the European CBs waited so long to pull the plug on the gold carry trade. There is no such grassroots activity in the U.S. as yet. Partly, this may reflect the fact that the U.S. economy has thus far benefited in various ways from the global crisis. These include seignorage profits. Over two-thirds of U.S. currency is held outside the United States. Some is drug money, but mainly it's the increasing use of the dollar as a store of value by middle-income households upset by the instability of their local currency. The difference between the face value of the bills and the minor cost of printing them, adds up to annual seignorage profits of about 0.5% of GDP. Another boon to the U.S. economy has been the flight to U.S. bonds by foreign investors, whose share of all private holdings of U.S. bonds rose from 21% at the beginning of 1995 to 38% at the end of 1998. In addition, developing countries, who in 1997 already held 55% of global official reserves--mainly U.S. treasury notes--though transacting only 25% of world trade, have been desperately trying to regain the confidence of the financial markets by increasing their dollar reserves. This has meant curtailing imports and emphasizing exports, which has severely depressed world prices for their chief exports: primary goods and labor-intensive manufactures. Thus the U.S. has been able to increase its foreign liabilities to cover its rapidly growing trade deficit without having to raise interest rates, as the rest of the world has to do, in order to get foreigners to hold its currency and securities. The dark side is that U.S. residents whose income and wealth derives from owning financial assets or who are employed in skilled jobs in the nontraded goods sector have garnered the lion's share of the benefits. In contrast, workers in the exporting and import-competing industries have lost high-paid jobs and have had to migrate to lower wage, service sector jobs. Feeling their profits squeezed by unusually low prices, agriculture, mining, steel, and other material producing industries with political clout are joining with labor in demanding import protection. Washington's attempt to ride both its high horses--free trade and free capital mobility--is becoming politically precarious. Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 19:34EJ (ORO - yessir) ID#23066:Except for that little problem in the 1970s, the scheme has worked pretty well. Problem is, all the MIT and Harvard educated technocrats running the monetary policies of the world's largest nations are all in agreement as to how the global economy ought to work. As a bonus, they can all swap stories about chugging scorpion bowls at the Hong Kong in Harvard Square. But there are a few fruitcakes at MIT and Harvard who are gaining some acclaim. They are bringing up the arguments of the Austrian school. Just in time. -EJ Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 19:11ORO (@EJ - Old words from the BIS) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedThe thing they thought they could do, was to make the decision, on the part of the world as a whole, as to what is money. They discovered, the hard and embarassing way, that the markets decide what is money, not CBs or governments. What success they may have in pushing the paper currencies over the PMs requires constant work in an environment of fluctuating debt loads and exchange rates. Their opinions are allways wrong so that eventually, somewhere, they end up introducing a large distortion in the markets/economy, ending with a bubble like today's stocks, accompanied by artificial depression, as in commodities and gold. Their control one day is the best indicator of their loosing it on the next day, when their control mechanism backfires.Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 05:11ORO (@Captain Kirk - How the worthless is valued) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO All rights reservedIt is no secret that the best way to build demand for something is to make it someone's obligation. No better way to do that than through debt and taxes. Debt, in particular, is great because it has the stamp of commitment from the debtor, apparently given out of his own good will. Thus the token has value because the debtors owe it. Say I found an enormous cave full of bats, and I had a banking lisence, if my bank were to loan you clumps of bat droppings at 1% interest rates and there was a farmer willing to take bat droppings for corn because it makes for a good fertilizer, then that would quickly become the cheapest fertilizer and everyone would borrow it. Then, as the first interest payments were coming due I raise interest rates to 20% and demand the return of my bat droppings or that you refinance the interest payments you owe. Very soon, bat droppings will have become very precious and many a farmer will kick himself for using dear bat dung for fertilizer. There would be great explorations for bat caves. Bat farms would eventually be built and the purchasing power of my bat dung hoard would rise as long as not to many went into receivership and interest rates kept ahead of bat dung production, lending and findings there would allways be more demand for bat dung than supply. But what would happen if guano of an extinct albatros were to be offered at a 1% rate by the bank of some enterprising pacific island? Though their guano would be extremely cheap, their great enterprise, hard work, and fierce resistance to imports would cause them a great accumulation of my bat droppings. My borrowers would be at a loss to return any of the albatros guano borrowed. When the island demanded the return of its guano, it would cause a great devaluation of my bat droppings, because of the great ammount of guano debt owed, the stockpile of bat droppings everywhere and that would be suddenly seeking exchange for guano. There would be a great surge in prices quoted in bat dung. I would not raise interest rates out of fear of further depressing the economy of the world, and exacerbating the rate of bankruptcy already caused by guano debt. Since my bat dung currency is dependent upon demand for debt settlement and bankruptcy eliminates debt, future demand for bat dung would suffer The US has trapped the world in $ debt in the late 70s and again in the early 90s. The mechanism is well known and simple. You lower interest rates and people borrow if there is something to buy with the currency you lend. When foreigners, particularly Emerging Market nations borrow, they pay a significant premium to US interest rates. Essentially the rates they pay are higher for the simple reason that they are not capable of printing $. Just as the credit card company is best served by your maintenance of a steady or growing balance as long as you are capable of making a certain minimal payment, so does the EM nation emerge from independence into debt and must maintain payments on it. This makes for the international demand for $ that the EMs must supply. Hence the demand for $ is maintained as well as its value. The great EM debt buildup occurred in the 70s as oil, then newly made tradable exclusively in $ ( 1969 ) , made necessary the export of goods to the US in order to obtain those $. Special "development" loans from the Wrold Bank, the IMF, and commercial banks backed by US government guarantees were made available at interest rates lower than the US inflation rate. All in the interest of creating international demand for $. Upon the beginning of Paul Volcker's taking of the reigns of the Fed, the interest rates were hiked skywards and many EM nations suffered steep currency devaluations and debt defaults that made their $ debt much more difficult to service. As a result, much of the world's supply of goods and services became cheaper for the US consumer and the US economy became the mock economy that it is today. $ supply became the more difficult, whereas goods were made plentiful for those supplying $. Today, the Swiss Franc, Yen, Euro and gold, the latter in particular. Is it not obvious that the value of money is made out of the debt burden of its debtor's? Is it not obvious that the currency game has been set up against the $ on all fronts, but particularly gold? Great pieces explaining different aspect of this in clear stories are to be found in Dr. Paul Hein's articles. A Primer On Money http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/hein031798.html The T.Heft Plantation http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/hein110298.html http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/hein070899.html Money, Lies, and Adding-Machine Tape http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/hein060199.html Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 02:27Captain_Kirk (africanminer@gold as money) ID#339203:Copyright © 1999 Captain_Kirk/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedSupposedly around 1975, the U.S. congress suspended the FDR 1933 executive type order which suspended ( anulled? ) all gold contracts. Supposedly, today, one can write a contract for payment in gold. However, any decrease in the gold price of the post-1933 dollar is viewed as a "profit" for post-1933 dollar tax purposes for the one exchanging gold for goods or for post-1933 dollars. That is, you might have to find some post-1933 dollars to pay out as Federal taxes if you realize a "gain" from the transaction. I guess the Federals want you to track each and every piece of gold, assign a post-1933 dollar "price" to it, and compare this original "price" with the final "price" when you exchange that particular piece of gold for something. If you exchange hard assets for the original piece of gold ( never use post-1933 dollars ) , then somehow, somebody has to determine the "fair market value" in post-1933 dollars for the original transaction. Ect., Ect. The whole scheme is quite confusing to me, and it is entirely unclear what they want you to do. I suppose the Federals don't won't you using gold for money, they want you to use their "primo" post-1933 dollars. Of course, I have yet to figure out just what one of these post-1933 dollars is for sure. I guess it is what they tell you it is. But they won't actually tell you what it is. It gets really confusing to me. I would prefer to stick with an ounce of this or a pound of that, which would make things a lot simpler, or so it seems to me. Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 18:05ORO (Technicals - SJ Kaplan) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedI tried to move out a big chunk of my position too ( hoping to unload 1/3-1/2 ) , just as Kaplan was, with an eye to immediately reenter on the pullback. I was too slow and have too many positions, by the time I had enough limit orders in for sale ( I do classic TA to determine targets and use oscilators to time - the swings were just too quick and I could not keep up with the analyssis ) , the pullback was well underway, managed to get out of DROOY at 2.5, and reentered at 2.0. Got out of 1/3 of my CAU at 9/16 and tried to get a fill at 7/16 and 3/8, which didn't happen ( yet-and the chart shows it may not happen at all ) . Gold - at POG over 315 we are hovering above the old resistance. Breaking above the 324 mark ( bid ) or 329 ( ask ) should push up to the 340/350 area rather quickly, leaving $355 as the next intermediate term target. Gold is enjoying a combination of attention and disbelief, which is rather bullish. XAU - A break over 89 and especially 92, should easilly lead to 104-105, and the XAU should then continue to about 120 at the vicinity of $350. If the market does not fall appart as it did in Karachi, the outlook for gold shares and futures is good. If not, the gold markets will seize up and your physical will be the only thing holding value in the markets. Recent actions by the SA miners to limit production seems to indicate their belief that the markets are not going to fall apart. We shall watch carefully. Nasdaq- does anyone else see significance in the shoulder line not being broken on the Nasdaq composite's daily chart head and shoulders ( 1 month ) ? Note that the formation could be a flag ( 2 months ) , as part of a steep cup and saucer, C&S ( 3 months ) . If the shoulder line at 2820 is broken upwards convincingly, then the flag and C&S would play in to give upside targets of 3100 and 3300, respectively. If the Neck line support under 2700 is broken, then 2500 is a good target downside, followed by a 2000-2100 downside target for the double top formation of the last 6 months. Oscilators indicate this up move in the Nasdaq is for real but should fizzle and bring back the negative trend as an oscilator lower high. The bearish scenario is more in line with the S&P500 H&S so long as the SP500 ( cash ) remains below 1380. A reversal at 1310-1330 tomorrow is probably has the most negative implications. If the VIX drops to 23 or less, I would consider this rally weak and expect a quick reversal downwards at or just after options expiration. SteveH (10/04/99; 19:28:32MDT - Msg ID:15423) Bollinger (not deringer, a topic for another time): The monthly bollinger is at $335 and guess what is approaching it. If gold hits $350, then it is likely that it will track up the upper bollinger to around $380 or higher. The weekly u.b. was at $280. It is broken. The daily u.b. was at $260 and it is broken. Next goal is $335. Tonight? SteveH (10/04/99; 19:23:07MDT - Msg ID:15422) I hope you are all still awake! www.kitco.com Dec now...$324.30!!!!from Trader_Vic [I like these words]:Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 20:55trader_vic (NETPI...) ID#316402:Copyright © 1999 trader_vic/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedAs far as this move is concerned, don't even worry about the oversold condition until gold reaches $525/oz....Until then, we will just be cleaning out the shorts...or shall I say the SHORTS will be cleaning out their own shorts!!! When you consider that the normal level of gold should have been $500/oz if it had not been used as a hedge instrument, it only makes sense that until we reach the INITIAL RELATIVE VALUE OF GOLD we are just in an equalization phase....Once this phase is completed in the next several months, we can then really trade gold as the asset it trully is...It could get really hairy in here as the gold shorts unwind loosing positions and all the others just default on their investments like PEI, there is a financial disaster out there waiting and it is bigger than Y2K..the only difference is that Y2K has more publicity...This disaster is one that those in the know won't tell and will take it to their grave...or their demise!!! Watch gold, it will clear $350/oz with no problems at all and when the ball really starts rolling and the fund managers start to jump in, it will be the most fabulous bull you have ever seen....much better than 1979 & 80....this one has 100 times the power behind it that the 70's did...just think of the inflation in $ that went into the stock market that will flow directly into gold over the next 6 months...and with gold you have the thinest market of any stock issued...that's because THERE IS NO MORE GOLD!!!! CoinGuy (10/04/99; 19:15:29MDT - Msg ID:15421) (No Subject) Thanks for all the help guys, was getting tired of KittyCo... Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 19:12:45MDT - Msg ID:15420) apples and oranges ! the spread tween the Dec Future bid and ask AND the spread tween the SPOT the Dog BID and ASK are far different !<;-) Cavan Man (10/04/99; 19:11:34MDT - Msg ID:15419) Counterattack Where is it? Anybody have a clue? What do the best mids here say?Gold at $325 is still cheap IMHO. elevator guy (10/04/99; 19:08:56MDT - Msg ID:15418) @Coin Guy http://www.quote.com/livechartscom/ Coin Guy, you can see the Sydney market, (I think), trading at <http://www.quote.com/livechartscom/>If the window doesnt appear when you click on the link, try typing in the address manually.When the screen comes up, it will show INDU, the Dow, at todays close. Click in the text field for the symbol name, and type in for example gcz9, to see the December contract.You can vary the time scale of the chart also. CoinGuy (10/04/99; 19:08:12MDT - Msg ID:15417) Coins Scot,As far as coins go, I've always viewed my coins the same way I view my stock portfolio. I keep some in the investment grades(MS63 to MS65), I also have purchased a few rarities, and commons as well. I've also bought quite a few common silver and gold pieces(junk silver and gold) intended to use in a barter situation, if the need arises. As far as 22k or 24k, some people say the American eagles will be easily recognized as a "real" gold coin because it's American, I myself don't care. I don't think the price difference is worth the worry. Especially when you're in a rising market. Just be glad you bought in now. Go Spot Go... Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 19:08:05MDT - Msg ID:15416) CoinGuy's Question www.forex.freeservers.com/main2.html Spot the Dog is the fictious "present" price of Gold! There are many reporting boards and in many values other that US$! --- the best one that I have found is at the forex board which is setup for currancy exchange quotes.BUT if you click GLD= and change the time to MIN and click "request" -- WALLA WALLA bing bang !!<;-) RossL (10/04/99; 19:07:43MDT - Msg ID:15415) Coins, spread Which coins?The Scot Maple leafs are .9999 fine one ounce gold. 24K.The KRrands and the Eagles are 1 ounce gold wilt 10% copper alloyed in for hardness and durability. 22K. They have the same number of atoms of Au as the maple leafs.The spreadI Just looked at livecharts.com and bid is $325.4 while ask is $326.4 a few minutes ago I saw a bid of $325 for 104 contracts! Somebody is buying big time! Cavan Man (10/04/99; 19:05:52MDT - Msg ID:15414) The Scot Agree. 24K = more AU. Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 19:00:58MDT - Msg ID:15413) adpchief's question on Spread IMHO when the spread widens to this amount (+$7) tween the bid and ask -- there are few sellers on the market side. -- I believe that the market maker is required to make a market by stating an offer price and if the market moves too fast he may not be able to cover his own sales.<;-) The Scot (10/04/99; 18:57:46MDT - Msg ID:15412) Which coins? There has been much discussed the last few days about which coins to buy. I think Granny started it all. Let me put in my thoughts, if you please.If worse comes to worse, and Gold is actually bartered on the streets, I believe the "fineness" will play a factor. The 24K coins are going to worth more than the 22k's. Right now we pay a premium for Eagles even though they only have 22k content. I think it is a waste to by anything but 24k. Anyone agree? CoinGuy (10/04/99; 18:55:16MDT - Msg ID:15411) kitco POG overseas What's going on with Kitco, seems to have unreliable updates? Where else can I go for foreign spot. Heck, what is the spot. Here spot...Coinguy apdchief (10/04/99; 18:49:21MDT - Msg ID:15410) Bid/Ask Spread I posted earlier regarding a $5.25 spread on bid/ask for spot. On the night session, the spread is now $7.80!!!! I ask again....significance? The Scot (10/04/99; 18:48:26MDT - Msg ID:15409) DD Cavan Man DD, I know you are right, I was just hoping for the impossible.Cavan Man, The Lord has us in the palm of His hand.Sincerely, The Scot Peter Asher (10/04/99; 18:44:21MDT - Msg ID:15408) Koan Don't pay attention to the Kitco qoute on silver, Use The other guys! Cavan Man (10/04/99; 18:43:56MDT - Msg ID:15407) ALL "They" are going to have to deal with the new gold paradigm. They must! It will be a surer path to continued riches for the established power and money brokers to have serfdom chained to inflationary bias than to have us all eating grass. Think about it. The "rents" will be so much greater for them. World events are moving the western economies. Gold calls the tune. I believe we are witnessing history. Why not? The world makes histroy every day. If you discount the FOA/Another storyline, then you are guilty of selective perception. It can happen. Peter Asher (10/04/99; 18:35:44MDT - Msg ID:15406) Caven Man, Exactly! >>>>The puppeteers know the rightstrings to pull and compromise they will. <<< RossL (10/04/99; 18:30:24MDT - Msg ID:15405) Krugerrands I checked this afternoon and KRands were $330 and US Eagles were $343. At there prices, you can buy 27 Krands cheaper than 26 Eagles.When gold hits $10000 per ounce, you will wish you bought those ugly ol' non-politically-correct Krugerrands! DD (10/04/99; 18:27:19MDT - Msg ID:15404) Cobra, The Scot Hi guys - It's true that it would be nice to see the back of this funny money system broken with few casualties. It's so nice to have our cake and eat it, too. But it's unlikely to happen that way, I believe. The current system is a win/lose system whereby the the rich get richer at the expense of the rest of the people. I believe there's a larger issue than who dies with the most toys. Is the current system exploiting the natural balance of things to the point of being unstainable? It appears that we may be blessed to break this old win at any cost paradigm, regardless of the cost. Am I willing to suffer the change now in order to provide a better world for my kids and grand kids? Yes. I am. Do I hope it won't be too bad? Yes, I do. Am I optimistic for a soft landing? No. I'm not. As human beings, passengers on space ship Earth, at some point, our integrity must become more important than power hungry egos and our pocket books. Sure, it's a pointedly idealistic belief that we might someday begin to work together. But, what the hell? We've got to believe in something. Right? Best, DD Tubac's ears (10/04/99; 18:25:31MDT - Msg ID:15403) silver Greetings all! Can anyone fill me in on why silver has yet to blast off. I would have thought it would've been by now.Thanx Cavan Man (10/04/99; 18:22:36MDT - Msg ID:15402) Beehive I was in a FED Bank this afternoon. All hands will be on deck for the "rollover". Also, there is no more window service. Too bad; here, it is such a beautiful (fiat) bank lobby. Could it be fear of the pitchforks? Cavan Man (10/04/99; 18:20:11MDT - Msg ID:15401) KRands Premiums are typically lower. Cavan Man (10/04/99; 18:19:32MDT - Msg ID:15400) ORO Thanks. Can you repost your Kitco's over yonder? (here)? Cavan Man (10/04/99; 18:18:07MDT - Msg ID:15399) Buy Signal Pat Sajak (sp?) is doing his part.Just overheard the show on the tube while washing dishes. Yes to all, I am a real renaissance man. One of the prizes offered was, "solid silver and gold bars". No kidding. CM Cavan Man (10/04/99; 18:15:53MDT - Msg ID:15398) CB2 I believe it can be orderly. I refuse to believe in financial armageddon. The puppeteers know the right strings to pull and compromise they will. If the many different worst case scenarios detailed here are played out, then I say good show! Know why? Then it must be the Creator's Will and despite "the sorrows", that's a reason to rejoice The Scot (10/04/99; 17:54:07MDT - Msg ID:15397) CoBra(too) #15389 Your post ..."don't we still hope, against all reason, that this final battle in the fiat money system will be played out in a way not ending in global financial and economic armageddon? We all, I do know, hope for the best outcome for all, but we do feel the major powers overplayed their hand and what may be worse are still at it exacerbating the ultimate outcome - that's the real scary thought."CB2, I'm glad you made the statement above. All of us on this forum, in our hopes for Gold to go to the moon, know what this will actually mean for the world ecomomy.It will be a pretty ugly situation. Lets hope we can "Win" our gold battle without massive casualities. Good Post ! The Scot RossL (10/04/99; 17:52:54MDT - Msg ID:15396) Gandalf KRands aren't ugly. As long as you don't look at the reverse ... <grin> Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 17:45:23MDT - Msg ID:15395) Dec Gold now at $323.50 on MRCI AND that is with a 15 minute LAG !Get it while you can, IF you can.My LOCAL dealer friend sez there is a $10 prem on 1 oz. Eagles over Maple Leaves now. What is the Street price of that ugly KRand ?<;-) Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 17:40:41MDT - Msg ID:15394) Spotty is now JUMPING! 321.10 in a big JUMP for Spotty, Spot's younger brother.<;-) RossL (10/04/99; 17:37:51MDT - Msg ID:15393) Wow I just saw a trade at 323 in the after-hours access market. Wouldn't it be nice if the 330 level was crossed before the open in New York on Tuesday morning?? CoBra(too) (10/04/99; 17:34:10MDT - Msg ID:15392) @ORO - Hello - great posts on the Kitco site Though I've never really been a trader - you're one doing you're homework - not only for trading purposes, but in the framework macro-economic, monetary, currency and maybe, most importantly - sentiment indicators. Please keep up your great work, wherever you choose to post on whatever is on your mind - Thank you - CB2 Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 17:32:18MDT - Msg ID:15391) WOWSERS -- Look at the size of the BID side on the GC9Z ! OVER 180 bids at 3:20 NY time and delayed half a hour ! -- This means that the Dec Gold price is not going to go down!!Spot the Dog and Spike are trying to rest from the great day chasing Mr. Short, BUT looks as if there are a whole bunch of their BUDS now ready to help them. -- The golden bears have not yet started to break, but they are starting to sweat!!!<;-) PH in LA (10/04/99; 17:16:53MDT - Msg ID:15390) Two interesting posts this afternoon at Kitco Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 18:12 JP (The rising POG is saying that a massive Dow decline is to take place between Oct 15-25.) ID#237237: Copyright © 1999 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedThe financial panic is upon us. We will have US gold backed currency within the next 2 years. A massive depression will follow the Dow decline and will last for a minimum of 5 years. Forget about inflation for many years to come despite the rising CRB. Most of the rise in the CRB is attributable to the recent precious metals advance. A massive decline will start to take place in real estate prices and all commodities in general ( except for gold ) after the Dow debacle.. Next year, short as well as long term interest will collapse as the depression sets in. Gold (with temporary corrections) will continue to rise for at least 5 years. Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 18:12 SEQUIN (Goldman 's) ID#25171: Copyright © 1999 SEQUIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedGoldman's Option trader got fired . You guys can't even start to imagine how much blood there is. Bullion banks are in panic mode : derivative positions too big to cover , no liquidity , fear about medium size mine defaults because of overhedging and margin calls . Very bad words in board rooms these days. Banks hesitate to be the one who pulls the trigger on mines since they could start a cascading default chain reaction. UBS is dead. Morgan is sh*tting razor blades but not dead yet . Morgan stanley disappeared from radar screen. They NEEEEED Gold to go down . There is about 1 year production of buy order between 280/295. If these guys start to panic it might get interesting. But too much blood is not always the best you can hope for: Beware of CBs stepping in.If there are small to medium mines defaulting , we could see contagion on the XAU. So I would prefer an orderly rise. I know this is too much to ask for and I am a little bit excited. THKS CoBra(too) (10/04/99; 16:25:04MDT - Msg ID:15389) Gold Miners up 10% on average - do we need all else to tank? -Very rhetoric question for most of the forum - don't we still hope, against all reason, that this final battle in the fiat money system will be played out in a way not ending in global financial and economic armageddon? We all, I do know, hope for the best outcome for all, but we do feel the major powers overplayed their hand and what may be worse are still at it exacerbating the ultimate outcome - that's the real scary thought.@CM-Hello my friend, I've been the son of a diplomat - even if my posts don't ever suggest that-so I've been a traveller most of my live. The outcome of our elections, though condemmned internationally, because of right wing overtaking conservatives as 2nd or 3rd runner ups to the social democrats, scaled down to 33%, worst ever, is as I see it a major change in our buerocratic concept of democracy - and even if I personally can't just now conceive the ultimate outcome, I would like to stress that the "right wing kid" Joerg Heider is not a Le Pen, but a popular demagogue, who got his votes from former and "fed up" labor. While I miss a real liberal faction, I do feel our conservative party should take a breather from coalition and rejuvenate - a la' Germany!The mainstream press just presses on and looks at the loudest voices, claiming we've potentially elected a new Hitler-ridiculous (reminiscent of the Waldheim affair, not doing justice to us at all) people are just fed up with 50 y's of beaurocratic Austrian style of "social partnership" or better proportional representation. Give us a chance at real democracy and we'll take care of any excesses. Trust me, we've had more than learned our lesson some generations ago - now we're in the process of getting up to speed with democracy. Thank you, CM, for your concern - I'll continue as the picture becomes more clear.As an afterthought - we're talking about a country, which has assimilated 2 million refugees since WWII - 25% of total population in 50 years and I'm kind'a proud of our success!Best CB2 thank you - and think gold! ORO (10/04/99; 16:23:35MDT - Msg ID:15388) Cavan Man The markets are not spinning out of control so the rise in POG should be steady. Technicals are still on the strong side and disbelief is still common among economists. There is a strong chance things will hold as the price goes up and Greenspan monetizes eveything in sight. The buying power of the $ is the US' traditional choice for a default mechanism. The banking system is at risk if the $ value is maintained.If the shorts fall apart at the $355 area, expect extrememe turmoil and the Holzman street price vs paper price to hit the ANOTHER/FOA targets before long. The $ and bonds should fall apart long before this so they are the things to watch. phaedrus (10/04/99; 15:57:40MDT - Msg ID:15387) gold and greenspan Gold just traded at 322 on the overnight, up 4 bucks. In regards to Greenspan, I think the market will go down whether he raises rates or not. They had their party today. He'll probably adopt a tightening bias and leave it at that... though he also knows that he's going to have to surprise this market if he wants to get any respect. I for one will have my guns ready to short the dow the split second the announcement is made if he raises. Cavan Man (10/04/99; 15:56:58MDT - Msg ID:15386) Sir ORO Are there still bears in the woods? POG seeems to be steadily rising. What do you think? Is a pullback in the making? Many thanks. Canuck (10/04/99; 15:51:12MDT - Msg ID:15385) FOMC meeting tomorrow Any thoughts on the announcement tomorrow??Rates up or unchanged? How will either affect the POG.My feeling is A.G. is damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't. If he raises rates the markets will be hammered, if he does not the dollar continues slide. Not convinced how either will affect the POG. Thoughts? Peter Asher (10/04/99; 15:31:05MDT - Msg ID:15384) ClintH -- Leigh Clint, thank you for the kind words. Your depection reminds me of this line from "Peter and the Wolf." >> "But what if a wolf DOES come out of the forest, what then?" said Grandfather.<<<Leigh: Powerful forces in the world have wanted to see humankind subservient to an elitist ruling class since somone invented the spear and the crown! Clint H (10/04/99; 15:14:54MDT - Msg ID:15383) Peter Asher, onlychild, Leigh Peter Asher, You wrote, <<<Sometimes taking something to the most extreme possibility makes it easier to comprehend and identify a smaller scale version of the event.>>>You are a true diplomat. It was very extreme. I had read your previous comments. It was probably your thoughts that triggered my analysis. I read all your posts. they are very helpful. Thanks.onlychild, you wrote,<<Great piece! I wish I had time to sit down and write an essay such as yours, but I don't. So can I borrow it?>>You are kind to say so. Use it as you wish.Leigh, you wrote,<<<What I REALLY believe is that there are powerful forces in the world which want to see humankind subservient to an elitist ruling class. I believe they've been plotting and working toward this for many years now and Y2K will be the catalyst that sparks it off.>>>Good statement. We tend to forget that there people who would enslave us. Your two other points were good also. Thanks. Journeyman (10/04/99; 15:00:24MDT - Msg ID:15382) Why Dow & NASDAQ are up? @SteveH Dollar up, yen down, 30 yr. US bond up, G7 currency intervention to weaken yen. Regards, Journeyman SteveH (10/04/99; 14:38:34MDT - Msg ID:15381) Dec. and Feb. gold now up! Market Mth Open High Low Last Change Date Time Ask Bid Gold(CMX) Dec 318.5 319.5 318.5 319.5 +1.5 10/4/99 13:20 319.5 319.0 Gold(CMX) Feb 320.0 320.0 319.6 320.0b +1.5 10/4/99 13:17 320.0 319.4 Dow and Nasdaq were up, but I don't know why? Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 12:32:24MDT - Msg ID:15380) GETUM Spike ! Spot the dog was resting for a while and now jumped to $317.90 <;-) Netking (10/04/99; 12:15:01MDT - Msg ID:15379) June2000 Call's June 2000 Calls with strike of $400 ...now selling at $900. Those that purchased these at $30 ... well done! Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 11:53:50MDT - Msg ID:15378) Spread on Spot I too show a wide $5.25 difference between BID and ASK -- but notice that most all trades are on the sell side! -- This will change and the spread widen when Mr. Short gets tired of treading water and starts to sink.-- GETUM Spot!<;-) Cavan Man (10/04/99; 11:52:18MDT - Msg ID:15377) CoBra(too) I have been fortunate to travel internationally more so than the average person. The most profound observation I am left with after my travels is that humanity, fundamentally is pretty much the same everywhere. Too many labels and too much hubris make for bad emotions wherever one might be.Any surprises in your elections? apdchief (10/04/99; 11:46:32MDT - Msg ID:15376) Bid/Ask Spread Within the past few minutes, on a service I subscribe to, I noted that spread between bid and ask was greater than $5.Never seen this big a spread before. Significance? Volatility indicator? Netking (10/04/99; 11:29:16MDT - Msg ID:15375) @ Elevator Guy - Options Elevator Guy - Pure demand & supply, the shorts have been covering for sure. Demand has been higher near the beginningof the scessions of late & then drops away a little. Buyers& sellers can quote what they want . . . pure marketeconomics. Goldfly (10/04/99; 10:39:47MDT - Msg ID:15374) Grrrrrrrr....GRRRRRRrrrrrrrr......GRRRRRRRRRRRR Spike! What's the matter fella?Grrrrrrrr....Spot! What's up boy?(Knock knock knock)GRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrRRRRRRRRI wonder who that is? What's wrong with you guys?Oh, it's Mr. Short.RRRRRaaarrrrfffff. Grrrrrrrrrrrr. ROOWWWWWFFFF.Goldfly, I'm warning you. You had better do something about those dooooooooogggggggsss!!!!Spot! Spike! COME BACK YOU TWO! ....... Eh, well.... ok, .....never mind.Have fun guys!Spot 316.90 Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 10:21:36MDT - Msg ID:15373) Spike just woke UP !! BLASTOFF ! ---- $317.80<;-) Gandalf the White (10/04/99; 10:18:45MDT - Msg ID:15372) Keep Jumping SPOT --- HIGHER ! New high for Spot today at 316.30 at 9:15 Pacific time !!! -- XAU is going wild too. WHERE is Spike ? Limit is $75. on the COMEX -- any thoughts of when we could see a limit ?<;-) The Scot (10/04/99; 09:07:57MDT - Msg ID:15371) UP & DOWN Europe did a nice job of pushing up the POG this morning. Any bets on how far the shorts will beat it back down this afternoon in New York? I'll guess $4.80. The Scot goldnbones (10/04/99; 09:07:30MDT - Msg ID:15370) Platinum rates One month lease rates for platinum at 40.4%??? Can anyone explain what is happening there and its effects? CoBra(too) (10/04/99; 08:47:21MDT - Msg ID:15369) @Hipplebeck's -the world would like to see the US take a nose dive. Sir, being a European, I feel that would not be (political),or otherwise correct. I, for one like the US and its people and what it stands/stood for very much and have lots of friends.No, I think it's more the deterioration of the global hegemony of dollarization, with all its discussed excesses in the (financial/derivative) that is the cause of the present credit and asset bubble. Too many countries have been severely maimed by unscrupolous speculation and manipulation, which this system has, maybe unwittingly at first, afforded to few though major players within the same.I think ECB's move to curb the carry trades was born from the necessity to return to sounder monetary discipline before the whole system blows up, leaving no one unscathed. A potential meltdown of the US$ and financial markets would affect all and no one could wish for such an outcome, but we all would wish for a retreat of official interference, manipulation and potentially collusion of markets in the age of cronie casino capitalism.Keep America great - go gold and enforce fair markets.Best CB2 elevator guy (10/04/99; 08:33:32MDT - Msg ID:15368) Options prices relative to spot price? Hello all! And a good gold-up morning to you! Good Spot, good Spike! Nice doggies!I have Dec calls, and Feb calls, and I noticed that this morning according to the NYMEX website, when spot was $314, my Dec 270 call options had a value of $4400 each, and Feb 270 was $4500 each.Spot hasn't changed all that much, but when I checked back, the quoted options prices had dropped a couple of hundred dollars.It doesn't seem reasonable that this drop is due to the spot price, since it hasn't changed all that much.And it doesn't seem that this drop would be due to the decaying time value of the options, since they have a long way to go until expiration, and we are in a bull market.Can anyone tell me why these quoted options prices actually went down??? mike55 (10/04/99; 08:31:59MDT - Msg ID:15367) Re-Post from 10/3/99 mike55 (10/3/99; 21:11:08MDT - Msg ID:15333)Eagles vs. PhilliesSince I can only get here on a catch-as-catch-can basis, I ask forgiveness if this has been adressed before. I seem to remember a question (discussion?) on US Eagles versus Austrian Philharmonics. The face value of 2000 Schillings at the current exchange rate is about $156 compared to an Eagle at $50. Perhaps face value is a moot point depending on currency fluctuations or devaluations that are difficult to predict. What are the pros/cons of the Eagle versus Philharmonic relative to taxation, reportingrequirements on purchase/sale, etc? I'm clear on the pre-'33 coins, but am thinking I may want to shift my modern bullion mix one way or the other. Comments or suggestions, anyone? Thanks in advance. USAGOLD (10/04/99; 08:26:34MDT - Msg ID:15366) Today's Gold Report......Shorts in Trouble MARKET REPORT (10/4/99): Day Six of the Big Breakout....Gold up another $9 as we start the week as options traders scramble to cover naked call options. Call option owners are being kept at abeyance by traders allowing only open "at market" fills -- thus leaving the advantage to the traders scrambling for cover. But what advantage? The market's getting away from them, and the sell bulge reflecting an extraordinarily high volume keeps backing up. High volatility reigns. How long until that market is deemed to be in crisis mode and trading halted? FWN reports a strong cash London market with lease rates firming slightly. Long time gold trader Leonard Kaplan declares "It's a bull market!" The London trade was followed by a strong open in New York with gold soaring to one and a half year highs. "Rumours abound, even more than usual, about massive hedge fund short positions,'' Macquarie Equities Metals Analyst Kamal Naqvi via Reuters. "There is almost equally dramatic talk about the books held by major bullion banks and some gold producers. Even if these rumours are only partly true, then gold prices will continue to be volatile for weeks, if not months, to come,'' he added. Providing a real life example of what happens when a gold market gets squeezed, a Karachi newspaper reported over the weekend that gold trading has been suspended in the local bullion market after a major market maker defaulted on forward delivery contracts. The newspaper reports that "In the meantime, a massive heart attack led to the death of a senior bullion dealer who could not sustain the shock after suffering heavy losses in forward dealing." The Karachi market is in chaos with dealers and the public alike scrambling for a dwindling supply of gold. That's it for now, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good day. The October edition of News & Views will be ready early next week and we invite all our visitors to take advantage of a free trial subscription to one of the most popular, widely read and quoted gold newsletters. Last month we predicted an explosion in the gold price. This month we deal with the nettlesome subject of paper assets in this tenth month of the penultimate year. And we all know what that means. October brings with it our annual Halloween issue. Here's an excerpt: "And this October could very well foreshadow a most fateful stroke of midnight only two months away. October. When markets crash and assets go bump in the night........." We think you will gain by taking advantage of our offer........... Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an interest in receiving a trial subscription to our widely read newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM and submit your request by E-Mail. You will also receive our introductory packet on investing in gold. JCTex (10/04/99; 08:13:32MDT - Msg ID:15365) Worth repeating http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/madhok100499.html "In the end I want to remind the readers that to defend a Long position taken at $400/oz, you need $400. While to defend a Short position at $400/oz, you need an oz of Gold."Sunil Madhokskmoi@emirates.net.aeUnited Arab Emirates5 October 1999 novice (10/04/99; 06:32:12MDT - Msg ID:15364) THE SCOT Thanks for the reply,I would assume this is what would happen but, I would think there would be some other profitable answer to the problem than just letting the house deteriorate. But then again I agree they can be stupid.Thanks again! The Scot (10/04/99; 06:21:05MDT - Msg ID:15363) Novice # 15360 Good morning. Your question on home repossetion is a good one and we do have a precedent as to what the government does in a case such of this. If you remember the great fall of the Savings and Loans just 15 years ago. The government forclosed on homes by the millions. Never "worked with" the home owner to help him through hard times. They foreclosed, put the owner and his family out in the street and then let the home sit empty for years before they even attempted to sell it. By then it had deterioted badly and they sold it for 50% of its earlier value. The government is not very smart, has no compassion for it's own people but will forgive debt of other nations at the drop of a hat.Sincerely, The Scot Hipplebeck (10/04/99; 06:10:25MDT - Msg ID:15362) gold leasing Good MorningThe world is attacking us aren't they? (USA)Can't blame them, thoughWe're the imperialists.Deep down, I believe they all would love to see the US take a dive. Those we did not defeat, we rescued, which can leave just as much of a feeling of resentment. Mr Gresham (10/04/99; 05:50:00MDT - Msg ID:15361) The Squeeze! Squeeze is on!Pretty dumb, shorting gold right before Y2k.Spot 313.All rise for the national anthem (South Africa's):"Nkosi sikelel' iAfrika"My song for the group (no translation necessary):He-he-hahaha-hahaha-hahaha -- ahhhhhh -- WIPE OUT! novice (10/04/99; 05:39:05MDT - Msg ID:15360) Breakdown What is the meaning of "a moratorium on a mortgage"?My brother and I discussed the issue of total market crash, if most people's mortgages became default, what would the banks do? Take the house and rent it out? Wipe out debts and give them the house (maybe if bank went under?) Very difficult subject I think, considering the mass of the problem. It would leave millions in the streets, I doubt they would let that happen. Leigh (10/04/99; 05:37:03MDT - Msg ID:15359) Bonedaddy Thanks for asking -- it's just a cold. I was sicker yesterday morning, but feel better today, thanks to heavy doses of aspirin and antihistamine. Are you on East Coast time too? SteveH (10/04/99; 05:19:00MDT - Msg ID:15358) Asking $316... Dec gold. Now $315.50. SteveH (10/04/99; 05:09:27MDT - Msg ID:15357) South Africans unite... Dec. gold now...$315.00this from kitco from GATA:Date: Mon Oct 04 1999 01:21Winston (Latest from GATA: SA producers to restrict gold supply.) ID#243420:"Bill disclosed Friday that some shorts are already defaulting. He has another big scoop in the second weekend dispatch: South African gold producers are about to unite to restrict production and thereby apply the fatal pressure to the already faltering gold- leasing business. This will create a bit of an OPEC for gold." http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/228.html? PH in LA (10/04/99; 05:02:05MDT - Msg ID:15356) Flawed thought processes over at Silicon Investor http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=11435122 The gold perma-bear known as Hutch over at SI Gold Price Monitor posted comments there this morning (see link). Since I am not a registered poster there, I beg your indulgence for posting a response here. (Up early here on the west coast... couldn't sleep.)"The central banks have also agreed not to increase their gold lending arrangements and derivative operations above current levels for the next five years... They never even suggested lowering those levels to 1998, 97, 96, 95 levels. Thus, this is a promise with no depth. If we assume that CB selling, leasing, and derivatives transaction have been at an all time high for the 1999 year, then a promise to go no higher becomes a deception. A falsehood, construction to lead the POG up based solely on ideas, and not based in fundamental or technical reasons. So the triumvir has only created a situation where the benefits of the derivatives and leasing becomes in their favor, and not the investors." HUTCH at SI Gold Price MonitorPlease, Mr. Hutch, let us ponder for a moment, your misinterpretation of the ECB's announcement.By pledging not to increase their gold lending arrangements for the next five years above current levels, the Europeans are in effect freezing that level, allowing for no more leasing whatsoever. Lowering levels to 98, 97, 96, or 95 levels would imply cancelling leasing agreements already in place, which would be a default of sorts on already agreed-upon arrangements. However, even agreements already in place can only be sustained by rolling them over into new agreements. If this avenue is to be curtailed, the escape valve of leasing to supress the market price is effectly closed off. This is not a question of percentages. It is one of reality. The market has made the proper interpretation of reality, as it always does. Are you smarter than the market? Those who would have us believe that eventually find themselves in trouble. It happened to Martin Armstrong... it can happen to you if you allow your investments to follow your flawed thought processes. Beware! Bonedaddy (10/04/99; 04:59:09MDT - Msg ID:15355) Good morning Leigh! Didn't I read that you were under the weather? Here at the Bone home, it's a sad day for all when Bonemomma is down. I hope today finds you feeling much better. Up $9.70 overnight, perhaps a toast with a GOLDEN glass of orange juice would be in order? Tomcat (10/04/99; 04:58:52MDT - Msg ID:15354) CoinGuy Welcome to the roundtable. If you have any data or opinion on what happens to the numismatic market during tough times I would like to hear what you have to say. I used to collect coins. Not for not for profit or investment, although I did ok, but for the love of it. Unfortunately, I did not stay in the hobby long enough to build up a group of dealers that I could trust. I specialized in Silver Dollars from the late 1700s to the early 1800s. I knew that niche well, better than many dealers, and that led me to find that some could not be trusted. Actually more that just some. Too many coins were altered in the back room. Since one of my ways to enjoy an endevour is develop the friendship and trust of those I deal with I, with some sadness, chose not to continue my love of the coin. These were pre-internet day and I have often thought of returning to this love but using the internet to develop better relationships; like on this forum. BTW, most of the gold I hold is uncirculated pre-1900 pieces. Bonedaddy (10/04/99; 04:50:13MDT - Msg ID:15353) Peter Asher? I notice that you quoted information from Nick's Guarino's Wall Street Underground. This publication, although it seems a bit "hyped" at times, is fascinating to me. Many here would probably agree with Nicks assesment of the buying opportunity that exists in gold. The letter also states that oil prices will not remain strong over the long term. After reading many of your posts, I hold your thoughts in high esteem. I have grown wary (weary)of promises to deliver, and WSU always has a big one at the close. (I had the five thousand dollars once and thought about the offer, but then I found a guy to trade me gold for my paper.) Would you give an opinion as to the accuracy of this publication? Leigh (10/04/99; 04:48:18MDT - Msg ID:15352) Rise and Shine! Gold's up $9.70 in overnight trading. What a lovely way to wake up on a Monday morning! Goldsun (10/04/99; 03:30:24MDT - Msg ID:15351) Tankan Rat Getting Dizzy Must be the spin.New Tankan still negative, but not quite as negative,so spin nurses rotate about "improvement".Poor rat suffering alone, but soon to have company.Goldsun CoinGuy (10/4/99; 1:38:57MDT - Msg ID:15350) new to the forum... New kid on the block...been reading the forum for awhile thought I'd join the rank and file. I'm an ex-coin dealer out of Nebraska, and hold physical. Been pretty excited about the upturn in the market. I guess all I have to say, is "About Darn Time". Would like to thank MK for the great articles, he convinced me to stay in the market, I had to quit dealing, no money to be had. Coin Guy Usul (10/4/99; 1:33:11MDT - Msg ID:15349) Tankan http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/991003/japan_econ_1.html In early reports, the Tankan was said to have "exceeded analysts' expectations."In later reports, it was said to be "pretty much in line with our expectations"http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991004/bd.htmlDoes anyone smell a rat? Peter Asher (10/4/99; 1:20:25MDT - Msg ID:15348) ClintH Well written piece. Sometimes taking something to the most extreme possibility makes it easier to comprehend and identify a smaller scale version of the event.First of all, where would the administrative labor force to foreclose on everything come from. I once joked here, that the big career opportunity of Y2K would be "Repo-Man." Half the creditors would die of old age before they saw a dime from the auctions.Secondly, such an event would see the "Dogs turning on their masters." Remember those "Suits" who drove out to repossess a farm in South Dakota or thereabouts, maybe 15-20 years ago. The Farmer just upped and shot them. --- Lots of Sheriffs will be needed too. Some earlier comments on this: from 3/7/99; 20:24:33MDT - Msg ID:3074 (the Y2K contest)>>>On the personal level, the major item at risk is homes. Most are heavily mortgaged. The most depressing part in Nick Guardio's current newsletter is his statement that most home mortgages have a clause requiring payment-in-full on demand which takes affect if the appraisal value falls below the outstanding loan balance. The specter of banker-landlords receiving their tribute from a nation of tenants is truly gruesome. However the last time there was a great depression, a far smaller amount of the population were home owners. (I believe the current figure is 66%.) Just as Florida and one other state currently allow unlimited home equity to survive bankruptcy, it's not unthinkable that in a financial meltdown there might be a moratorium on principle residence mortgages. Which is the larger voting block — the home owners of the land or the stockholders of the lending institutions? <<And back on 1/13 and 1/14 I was having a three-way chat with AEL and Turbohawg-----<<<Now let's have some fun and look at "a deflationary collapse will take out all debtors". Empirically correct!! But this is not the 1920s or 30s in the USA or Germany. The percentage of people owning their own home, cars and whatever, on credit, is exponentially larger than during those periods of financial disaster. Is the American public going to walk down to the nearest bridge with a sleeping bag, dropping the car keys off at the bank on the way? Even if the Govt. confiscates every gun and baseball bat in the land, it won't happen! In a "collapse" scenario, only the providers of a debt moratorium on homes and cars will remain in office! Its the guys holding the paper that will be wiped out.<<< Voyager (10/4/99; 0:48:25MDT - Msg ID:15347) Correction NorthStar 951X GPS / Chart Plotter Voyager (10/4/99; 0:39:32MDT - Msg ID:15346) (No Subject) Good Evening Peter. PDX is still here and in good working order (as we are now the CITY THAT WORKS instead of The City of Roses which we were for so long.) Dec. gold at 308.90 up 3.60.Have been away from the round table from early August until last Sunday night. WOW what a time to return. Left PDX in early August on our boat for extended cruising in the San Juan Islands, Gulf Islands, and southeast Vancouver Island. Up there after awhile, it really does not matter what day it is. No TV watching, reading newspaper, or Internet. I was truly unplugged. Having Orcas swimming next to your boat is very exciting, but not nearly the elation from last Sunday night & Monday. I am glad to be back to the forum.THX-1138 – The GPS rollover was a complete non-event for nearly all systems. I have the northeaster 951X integrated into the Robertson AP20 autopilot. A terrific combination. In an electronics store in Victoria BC talked to a very knowledgeable storeowner who advised me this was actually the second rollover. Scratch one millennium disaster.Sir TownCrier – Have really enjoyed your reports From The Tower.Lastly ,welcome to all the new contributors. Am amazed at the increase.Gold now 309. Gandalf the White (10/4/99; 0:22:57MDT - Msg ID:15345) Jump SPOT ! -- Jump! Spot at 309.10 on Forex at 11:17 PDTGC9Z sez 309 at 2:19 NY timewhile the K Chart sez "oops another down spike error" corrected -- and then 307.75 at 2:20 NY time.Jump SPOT Jump ! --- WHERE IS Spike ?<;-) AEL (10/4/99; 0:17:57MDT - Msg ID:15344) mike55: y2k prep "The link from AEL is the best overall checklist I have found in the last year" ... thanks! there are several other very good ones, more detailed than mine. "While some may consider it a little over the edge" ... yes, well, at the time I composed it (about a year ago) I thought that a shutdown of the national (or large regional) power grid of many weeks or even months duration was possible, and in that case one almost cannot be over-prepared. I no longer think that this is a major possibility worth going far out of one's way to prepare for; though it is still possible. Peter Asher (10/4/99; 0:02:14MDT - Msg ID:15343) Y2K Preview #2 Thanks, TomCatHad another Y2K drill out here at the end of the world where the USA literally falls into the sea. All four lines went dead, went next door, dead, Two miles down, dead. Next, drive 8 miles out of the forest into cell-phone reception territory, nada! North another 4 miles, phones are working, So we had half the exchange area down INCLUDING the land line that feeds the local cell tower. Always thought the cell phone was the backup system, guess not. Called into Sprint on weekend repair, got someone hundreds of miles away, no record of trouble called in after two hours of service down. I was the first one who kept driving until they found a live line. Before I found it I was having weird thoughts like, somebody nuked Portland, maybe the gold shorts sabotaged the national phone system.Sprint lady says "we'll put a work order in for service tomorrow." I said "WHAT? You've got half a county down!!" "Well sir, I just enter the data ---yada yada---" Went home, went nuts, Where's gold? where's silver? What's happening on the Forum? Drove 15 miles to the top of cascade head where I can pick up the next cell-phone zone and called TomCat and got quotes. Whew!! Phones came back on an hour ago. Leigh, Goldfly, Angel! Maybe we can do a Y2K song to that old country-western that goes "I miss you already, and your not even gone" Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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