All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
mikal (3/3/07; 23:47:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 152977)
@slingshot
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=INTBIZ&artid=119862
Just pulled this off MK's newswire. It's looks to be the same story Tanashian covered below.
But THE PHOTO!
A noose? A puppet string? A halo? ;) LOL Good night.
Goldilox (3/3/07; 23:46:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 152976)
George on the History Channel
@ Slingshot,
I did catch George's appearance on the History Channel, but found the overall show as shallow as a lot of their shows on the ancient world.
The producers didn't do their homework very well, IMHO.
George did not embarrass himself, but there was no where near enough time alloted to explain the mechanics of the web bot project. The best explanation I've heard is from the inventor, Cliff, in a series of interviews with Alex Merklinger before Alex went "dark". The archives of those interviews can be found at:
http://www.mysteriesofthemind.com/archives.htm
While they tried to rally around the "doomsday scenarios" in many of the surviving ancient texts, they did not mention Neil Freer or any of the other folks who are doing some very interesting work to tie those ancient civilizations together, with some plausible theories on why certain themes appear in all the surviving manuscripts.
They also went off on a segment about flipping magnetic poles, and confused it with the effects of flipping geographic poles, NOT AT ALL the same thing. Then they brought up some yahoo's premise that crossing the Galactic plane might "flip" the atomic spin of all matter and destroy it. Whoo-weee! That's as silly as the assertion that toilets must flush clockwise below the equator and counter-clockwise above it.
I have to agree with Jim McCanney. Every time social balance deviates from the "bland", the doomsday prophets all start waving the Mayan or Vedic calender at us, looking for their 15 minutes of fame, and touting some pretty massive extrapolations of what we really "know" about any ancient civilizations.
But, it keeps the masses from "paying attention to the man behind the curtain" once again, so I imagine TPTB relish the "info-tainment" in true Marshall McLuhan style.
slingshot (3/3/07; 23:42:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 152975)
Old Italian saying
Over the span that I have been at this site there has been a notable statement as to the age of our posters.
Sixty years plus? Well let me set the record straight to those WIPPER SNAPPERS.
Experience (OLD AGE) will overcome Skill and Youth.
Slingshot------Hahahaha
slingshot (3/3/07; 23:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 152974)
mikal
Yepper they are monitoring this site ;0)
Man was that fast.
Slingshot----------<>
mikal (3/3/07; 23:21:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 152973)
@slingshot
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1173024300.php
Re: "Benny and the Jets"
Benny and the Jets Hueys - Gary Tanashian - March 4, 2007 - GoldSeek
slingshot (3/3/07; 23:20:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 152972)
Hey Topaz
You on the wire?
Slingshot-------<>
slingshot (3/3/07; 23:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 152971)
Gold finger
We are not distant in our points of veiw and I find most Goldbugs are within a channnel which runs from doom and gloom to eurphoric. But a more realistic veiw may be from Hands On to Virtual Reality.
Slingshot------<>
mikal (3/3/07; 22:57:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 152970)
@slingshot, Goldfinger
http://news.goldseek.com/DollarCollapse/1173024060.php
Yup. You're staying ahead of the game, as hard as it is.
This is a good one, short and to the point:
Banks and Bubbles IV: Sudden Junk - John Rubino GoldSeek.com - March 4, 2007
slingshot (3/3/07; 22:47:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 152969)
mikal
I am going to make a statement.
I do not think they can fool us for long. That is those who are stating to think twice.
Slingshot-------<>
slingshot (3/3/07; 22:43:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 152968)
GF
One post at a time ;0)
Slingshot-----<>
GOLD FINGER (3/3/07; 22:35:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 152967)
What could I possibly say.....
...that anyone would like to read?
I am not sure other then I sometimes write for myself in a way of therapy and perhaps a form of venting.
Good? Bad?
I am not sure. I can understand many points of views and I do like the economic trivia and charts and graphs.
I try to stay clear of to may chat url's and write down what I may be feeling in regards to current economic times and how we are all being effected with this new globalization.
I think this is a new word for my generation. In the old days things were different. Now days so many other issues are at hand and I never realized what happens in India or China could have such a huge impact on me and others.
The working class are being stampeded away. Who's going to be left to provide for all the entitlements?
I am a hard working person. Self made and I push to be more innovating at what I do. I am pro fairness, but not complete socialization of our society. I feel that in this day it's extremely important to keep up and be prepared and keep that hot water FLOWing~
Cheers,
GF
slingshot (3/3/07; 22:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 152966)
mikal
One of my problems is that I do not make the connection between pivitol points as fast as others. This financial game is hard for me as it gets more complex as the it progresses. This may be what scares those who are at a point to enter the gold arena. It is hard and I have been at this Forum for a few years. I am for the Small time investor for I am one.
Slingshot----------<>
mikal (3/3/07; 22:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 152965)
@Slingshot
Here's the plan (modus operendi, secret hidden agenda, code of honor):
If we get to the year 2012 and NOTHING happens(at all),
it's plan B, the Y2K routine- we make like we knew it all along and then predict IT happens a couple more years out, it'll keep us employed and the subjects happy. I assume you're going to be aboard. ;)
mikal (3/3/07; 22:18:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 152964)
@Slingshot
Good posts. Thanks for the info on GE site. I like to hear what's happening around the web. I wonder what the web bot Goldi visits said about the past week(did it predict any or all the goings on?).
Mother Goose was the name for an anonymous collection of folk nursery rhymes. One very short one is called The Crooked Sixpence. Mother's goosing the house of cards?
The Crooked Sixpence
There was a crooked man, and he went a crooked mile,
He found a crooked sixpence beside a crooked stile;
He bought a crooked cat, which caught a crooked mouse,
And they all lived together in a little crooked house.
slingshot (3/3/07; 22:15:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 152963)
George and the Time Monks
Don't know if your see George from Urbansurvival on the History channel but he may be on to something concerning 2012. But Bennie and the Fed, has electric boots, a mohair suit, and you read it in a magazine. Oh, Oh.
Bennie and the Fed. Has him Beat.
Slingshot---------<>
slingshot (3/3/07; 21:52:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 152962)
HeyTopaz
Your on the wire?
Slingshot-----<>
slingshot (3/3/07; 21:40:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 152961)
under surveilance?
I happen to run across a link which involved our neighboring castle,as to WHO is looking at their posts. Lots of firms and people. I had to wonder why as we make up such a small percentage pertaining to gold. Surely if we are a small percentage, why would they have concern? And I am sure, as we are in only bullion, they have turned an eye towards our forum. While the media and market shrills downplay gold, it is odd that so many companies visit our sites. The mantra is gold is dead, and barbaric sounds aloud, while the undercurrent is to accumulate.
Strange indeed.
Slingshot----------<>
slingshot (3/3/07; 21:13:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 152960)
Recognition
There are times we post and we feel nobody is paying attention to what we write. I wanted to say I read your posts. Sometimes don't understand it, but read it the same as to one day I might catch on.
Topaz,melda laure, cometose,flow5,mikal Druid,kilo,AuSome,
Silver Fox,msiwantitall,Goldilox Thoreauly,Sierra Madra,Quixote PaperAlvalanche,Smiles45,Gold Finger.Black Blade, Gandalf the White, Waverider,and Belgian.
**** Sir M.K., Towncrier, Marketalk ****
There are a Noble Bunch ;0)
Come on your Lurkers and Newbies. Join the fun.
Slingshot---------<>
mikal (3/3/07; 20:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 152959)
China
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-03/03/content_5795362.htm
This could just as well be India, Taiwan, Turkey, Russia etc.
China Seeks More Channels to Use it's Foreign Exchange Reserves - ChinaView - Xinhua - March 3, 2007
Reserves "quintupling in the last five years" are "still growing".
China "is seeking MORE (emphasis mine)channels to use it's massive foreign exchange reserves, economists said" before the 12 day, annual meeting begins(today) of "the country's TOP political body".
This meeting closes in 12 days, so that puts them two weeks(approx) shy of the end of the fiscal year for many Asian nations,
and two weeks (approx.) from now.
slingshot (3/3/07; 20:37:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 152958)
Gold Finger, Keeping the majority poor
Well Good Knight, I think that is what it is all about.
One only has to recall the comment of Ford and especially Rockerfeller's comment about serfs, that you can see they don't give a damn and are Hell Bent to the New World Order.
You can see that more and more others in the backgroud(Like Kissenger) are brought back into the picture for advise. WHY? Do we not have any upcoming people who have newer ideas or are we staying the course. Refusing any new paths. Such is Greenspan. If he wanted to stay on scene then he should of held the job and not undermind Bernacke. If Paulson is running the show with the plunge protection team ,why do we have Bernacke? So it all comes down to Who Is Running The Show!
Gold Finger that is a Great Question but I am afarid I might run outside of the parameters of Forum Rules.
Slingshot---------<>
slingshot (3/3/07; 19:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 152957)
A Story to Brighten Things Up.
Well TPTP sure beat us up the past couple of days.Yet I'm not worried about it. Nothing really has changed that I can see. This story is true for it happened today. My hot water heater gave up the ghost with a vengence. Not only did it stop heating but began to leak. What has this to do with GOLD? Hang on, I will get to it. Only after major frustration and the need to fix the problem does one see a coalation. Before I continue I would like to say if your have a plumber,electrician,car mechanic or carpenter for a friend they are like gold. I treat them with respect when they make house calls. But for me I always give it a try first and hope I do not do too much damage before I call in the calvary. If you are a do it your self type, you understand the learning curve and equate the education of gold is par with any trade. Lots of variables and even with my long trips to and from the supply house I find I learn something new each time. And so it is with gold as each retracement occurs we learn more about the markets.
My point is that when it all goes down will you have the time to repair it (Financial). This is just an inconveinence (Cold Showers) but a great motivation to get the job done.
Another good point is you have all the info at USAGOLD about Gold and you don't have to make many trips.
An admission that I did feel the hot water was cooling in the shower long before the incident.
The writing is on the wall. Like my hot water heater. Sooner or later the FED has got to do something! Doing nothing is not gonna make it.
Smile everyone ;0)
Slingshot----------<>
Goldilox (3/3/07; 19:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 152956)
Sorry for the repeat post
I thought the first one didn't make it.
- Department of Redundancy Department
Goldilox (3/3/07; 19:31:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 152955)
Class distinctions
@ Gold Finger,
Two excellently researched treatises to that effect are:
Money Masters videos (linked by Kilo on 2-17-06)
and Smitty's "Wizards of Money", which has made the internet rounds, but landed I don't know where.
Both support the theory that "economics" as we experience it, is but a fiction designed to enable major political power to pass from generation to generation in the same bloodlines.
mikal (3/3/07; 19:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 152954)
Typo edit
Typo: before, NOT "bfre"
mikal (3/3/07; 19:26:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 152953)
Gold is only months away from complete resurrection
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north512.html
The Gold-Plated Sting by Gary North - March 3, 2007
The sting institutuionalized around the world by insider bankers/central bankers confiscated honest money permanently says Gary North.
In the U.S. he insists, it was because two lies gave us a government-guaranteed, gold plated, gold standard.
But I agree with him you can't get "something for nothing" forever.
Therefore, what lies ahead is not so much a multi-year bull market in gold( if such a market in gold really exists in the classic sense), but a new paradigm in the midst of, or the incipient stages of, or on the doorstep of implimentation. Simply, a paradigm shift is occurring as we speak.
The stable state of the global economies cannot survive relentless exponential debt growth coupled with derivative
growth and inevitable, progressive failure(starting now with MBS's, hedge funds, junk bonds)- precipitated by both flawed CB and gov't policy and current dependence on the fraud of leveraged, unbacked paper promises- CB interest rate and money supply decisions are being exposed as naked shorting of citizens' savings and leaving only months or perhaps weeks bfre large institutions and fund managers
reach the limit of confidence in the IMS and it's reserve model.
IMHO and NIA. Do your own due diligence and good luck.
Goldilox (3/3/07; 19:23:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 152952)
Wizards of Money and Money Masters
@ Gold Finger,
Try these on for size, courtesy of Kilo, posted 2-17-06
Money Masters Part 1:
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/multimedia/Money_Masters_Tape1_Part1_all.wmv
Money Masters Part 2:
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/multimedia/Money_Masters_Tape2_128KBps.wmv
The other really good one is Smitty's "Wizards of Money", which is a little older and has "made the rounds" of websites, so to speak. Haven't been able to find the original version lately.
They are both excellent primers to the point that "economics" is but a fiction designed to keep the same "privileged few" in power generation after generation.
GOLD FINGER (3/3/07; 18:24:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 152951)
What do you think about the "Big Boy's" keeping the majority POOR?
How lucky are you?
I think the hidden truth is many of the big bankers and others in political power try keeping the poor class in that state is good for the economy...correct?
This may be a general idea and maybe even a broad thought, but, I do feel that some of the ingenious things that Mr. Bernanke says and dose and will YET do, will be in effect to knock down the world economies.
I think that when Mr. Greenspan commented last week on the idea that we might be headed for a recession was not to far off from the truth and I didn't hear Bernanke say it was incorrect.
I think depressions and recessions and high inflations are all cyclical. The goal is to keep enough people hungry who will work for peanuts and thus keep making the "excess" that many GLOBALLY GOBBLE UP!!
This is not just an American issue! It's a World Wide issue.
I think we will hit a recession and maybe even a depression!! Buckle down the hatches boys, it's going to be a rough ride. History repeats it's self right?
Happy Golden Weekend~
GF
This leprechaun has a wee pile of gold (physical) and I am feeling even more lucky knowing so!!
Goldilox (3/3/07; 15:21:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 152950)
Globalism and Inflation
While everyone loves to expound how decreased labor costs are the great benefit of Globalism, not a word is ever heard about how increased transport and security costs may offset or even exceed the savings generated.
As fuel prices rise drastically, the cost of transportation has dwarfed the cost of labor as a component of production and distribution.
Example, the $1 tennis shoes from China that still adorn US retail shelves at $100 or more contain much more than that $1 manufacturing cost in transportation, security, and marketing costs. I have no figures as to the precise comparison, but I am sure they would be interesting, if anyone does.
At what point does the rising transport and international security cost start to again favor local manufacturing?
The bulging Iraq war budget essentially puts a heavy toll on "raw materials" that is never amortized in any reports.
As Bucky Fuller once quipped (paraphrasing), "A society whose security and maintenance costs out-weigh its actual productivity, is experiencing regression, rather than progression."
Goldilox (3/3/07; 15:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 152949)
MVt Labels
@ Flow5,
THANKS!
I would have guessed one or more of them wrong!
G'lox
mikal (3/3/07; 14:11:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 152948)
Re: "productivity measures"
Is actually 'after original growth and productivity
measures'. Both of these are fictions, and more are due out this coming week, among other things. Interesting also that these kinds of figures get played up and any other stats get little or no mention.
An article in Bloomberg this week made mention of the contrast between 'anecdotal evidence' and stats showing slowing vs. other reports and that Fed and investment decisions relied upon a resolution of this.
mikal (3/3/07; 14:04:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 152947)
Last night's news
...as well as this morning, a flood of press reports
appeared about Bernanke's speech last night.
Most of them were headlined with some variation of:
Bernanke says globalization is causing inflation
Some others were restatements from the past about "the good economy" or "Bernanke is satisfied".
This is little different than Geithner and the Fed circle's "achievement of the goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth", wielded in various settings as a universal, one size fits all slogan!
With GDP revisions after GNP revisions after original productivity measures, there is no semblance of concern
about the economy actually shrinking outside of an elite intelligentsia that know better and mostly don't live here.
Same with "price stability", which is no less a fiction in Switzerland or Japan or EU or Britain than the US of A.
flow5 (3/3/07; 13:26:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 152946)
source
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ADJRESN/123/5yrs?cs=Medium&crb=on
sometimes you don't want to swim upstream (if everyone else uses seasonally mal-adjusted data).
figure is not seasaonlly mal-adjusted.
flow5 (3/3/07; 13:24:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 152945)
Columns
Cpi, legal reserves, 10 month rate of change, 24 month rate of change, date - year, month, 30 year mortgage yield
Lackluster (3/3/07; 13:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 152943)
(No Subject)
No, I know. My post was tongue in cheek. I am not sure how Geithner expects anyone to believe "...his remarks were general in nature..."
TownCrier (3/3/07; 12:22:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 152942)
Lackluster: Geithner said his remarks were general in nature...
Of course. God forbid that a Fed official ever provide anything more SPECIFICALLY relevant to a current event than "The Fed does not comment on current market events."
However, the general lesson to be generally gained about the Fed's general policy toward life in general is generally that the quantity of money in the system will be generally goosed (and its value generally sacrificed) whenever specific conditions generally warrant as guaged by a generally political assessment of conditions.
When this lesson is learned to the deepest fibre of your being, the only choice for savings becomes tangibles -- with gold chosen specifically as the liquid component of ones accumulation of wealth.
R.
Lackluster (3/3/07; 11:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 152941)
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-ready-act-if-financial/story.aspx?guid=%7B5289F407-DD28-429C-841F-688897A39CA7%7D
But Towncrier, from your URL:
"Geithner said his remarks were general in nature and not related to "the specific conditions of the moment" where the stock prices plunged around the world."
Sounds like cold comfort.
TownCrier (3/3/07; 11:49:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 152940)
A helicopter story: Geithner says Fed ready to act if financial crisis erupts
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-ready-act-if-financial/story.aspx?guid=%7B5289F407-DD28-429C-841F-688897A39CA7%7D
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve stands ready to lower interest rates if a financial crisis erupts, said Tim Geithner, the president of the New York Fed, on Wednesday.
"As always, central banks need to stand prepared to make appropriate monetary policy adjustments if changes in financial conditions would otherwise threaten the achievement of the goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth," Geithner said in a speech about liquidity in financial markets to a business group.
^___(from url)___^
Just gotta love that elastic money supply -- when the business climate and investments hit the skids, the Fed is not shy about sacrificing the value of the dollar in order to help refloat everyone's boats.
With unlimited waves of cash always looming on every horizon, a flood ever-ready to be unleashed, the wise person does not use the dollar for savings. He or she chooses gold -- because Mother Nature does NOTHING to sacrifice its value (that is, does NOT increase its supply) as the wayward monetary tides rolls the wreckage to and fro, buoyed as it all is on a sea of ever-devaluing dollars.
R.
Chris Powell (3/3/07; 11:45:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 152939)
What treasury secretary might be telling Asia
http://www.gata.org/node/4879
1:41p ET Saturday, March 3, 2007
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The U.S. Treasury Department this week announced that Secretary Henry Paulson will visit Asia next week. Here is Treasury's press release.
* * *
U.S. Treasury Department Press Release
Thursday, March 1, 2007
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp291.htm
Treasury Secretary Paulson
to Visit Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing,
and Deliver Speech
in Shanghai Next Week
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. will travel to Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, and Shanghai next week to meet with government officials and local business leaders. The secretary will deliver a speech in Shanghai on March 8 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
The secretary will be in Tokyo on March 5-6 to hold bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Abe, Finance Minister Omi, Bank of Japan Governor Fukui, Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Ota, and Financial Services Minister Yamamoto, among others.
He will travel to Seoul on March 6, where he will hold bilateral meetings with President Roh, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy Kwon, and Trade Minister Kim.
He will meet with Vice Premier Wu Yi in Beijing on March 7 before going on to Shanghai. While in Shanghai, Secretary Paulson will meet with financial sector leaders and local government officials, and deliver a speech on Chinese financial markets reform on March 8.
* * *
GATA's friend Peter Berry imagines Secretary Paulson's remarks to the Asian officials this way:
To Prime Minister Abe and his colleagues in Japan: "Good job. Your profits are waiting as agreed. Now please weaken the yen again, as the unwinding of the yen carry trade is making us dizzy and I need to return to the United States with something positive."
To President Roh and his colleagues in South Korea: "We think that our rapprochement with your family members across the 38th Parallel will provide you excellent markets for your (over)production. (While our own markets freeze up and will be closing soon. Sorry about that)."
To Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and the apparatchiks in Shanghai: "This is win-win. With your help, we've succeeded in lowering the price of gold and obtaining scarce physical by shaking the GLD tree to the tune of more than 3 million ounces in the last week. No one in the West believes in the metals anymore, and we will continue to beat back the price as well as we can to meet your reasonable demands to exchange our paper and electronic credits for something tangible. And now, if you will allow my colleagues and me, we can rig your markets for you better even than you can for yourselves."
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, go to:
http://www.gata.org/
TownCrier (3/3/07; 11:08:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 152938)
Zimbabwe gold mining on the brink of collapse
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=84&art_id=nw20070302140957397C670878
Harare - Zimbabwe's gold mining companies have been pushed to the brink of collapse due to a fixed exchange rate and soaring production costs, a leading gold producer said on Friday.
Miners sell gold to the Reserve Bank at ZIM$16 000 per gram, which is about $64 (about R470) at the official exchange rate...
The Zimbabwe dollar is officially pegged at ZIM$250 against the US dollar, but trades more than 30 times weaker on the black market, while the ZIM$16 000 per gramme price for gold has been fixed at current levels for five months during which inflation has risen by almost 400 percent.
...a Zimbabwe Stock Exchange listed mining company, warned in a statement to shareholders that the industry could no longer sustain operations in the face of rising costs and falling revenues.
"Without a realistic increase implemented shortly, this company, in fact, the whole gold mining industry in Zimbabwe, faces imminent collapse," FalGold chairperson Gary Perotti said in the statement. "No business can sustain an environment where rapidly increasing costs are matched against fixed revenue."
...Several mines have closed amid a worsening business environment characterised by exchange rate problems, inflation at almost 1 600 percent and serious foreign currency shortages that have made it difficult to import equipment...
Jitters over President Robert Mugabe government's plans to take control of foreign-owned mines have also seen limited exploration and mine development.
Mining output declined by 14.4 percent, while gold deliveries to the central bank were 18 percent down to just under 11 tonnes last year.
^___(from URL___^
Sending thanks once again to my friend, G, for this link to a highly instructive article. Read it at least twice, folks, and then make a decision to choose freely floating metal over mining shares and other market regime.
R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/3/07; 10:56:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 152937)
Spot the bargain
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html
Goldilox (3/3/07; 10:25:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 152936)
LABELS
@ FLOW5,
I understand about squeezing the data when moving from one application to another, but what does each column of data represent? There looks to be about 4 or 5 columns there of pure numbers with NO LABELS.
Please elaborate.
flow5 (3/3/07; 09:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 152935)
Monetary Flows (MVt)
Sorry, posting the numbers, squeezes the data. The examples are not comprehensive, just some -- turning points.
(1) The stock market rebounded in Oct. 2002. Coinciding with the rebound was a turn in the rate of change (roc) in (Monetary Flows (MVt); for all historical purposes, debits corroborate -- "Free" Legal Reserves). They are symmetrical. I can't explain the lags, it's just an observation, but they've been constant since 1919.
I originated the roc's, but not the theory. No one else uses the info. And if you know Joseph Granville, of the Granville letter, you might remember in Sept. 1981, his on-balance-volume data, were set to register a market bottom, but so many subsribers anticipated this, that they bought into the market and prevented his prediction from coming true. The lesson is, you can't tell everyone the gospel, or it will stop working.
(2) The stock markets top in the first quarter of 2000 conincided with a +3.24 (roc) in Dec. 1999, which subsequently fell to -.32 in Feb 2000. Now that's an historic reversal!
(3) In Oct. 2002, the stock market hit a bottom. "Free" Legal Reserves (roc) reversed from -30 to a +26 beginning in Oct. 2002 and never looked back. That's not a conicidence. That's called a (roc) of real money in excess of real inflation - CPI, etc.
(4) When Bernanke was appointed Chairman, he initiated a tightening process. There was a succession negative real GDP (roc's) from Feb. 2006 until Dec. 2006, but inflation persisted, and the Fed was still trying to wring inflation out up until Jan. 2007. That was the motivation for sopping up reserves (the largest decline in history). Bernanke wouldn't have had a problem, but his technical staff still adhere's to the fallacious real bills doctrine.
(5) Black Monday in 1987 was the direct result of the fed soaking up reserves. Reserves declined at their steepest rate since 1915.
The (roc's) for both real GDP & inflation reversed to the downside in Feb. 2007.
(6) Bonds turned around in July 2006, a reflection of the fed tightening. Tightening reserves raises long-term rates in the short run, but lowers long-term rates in the long-run.
(7) This year, Feb. 2007, reserves declined at their sharpest rate ever. The Fed's staff, which didn't understand "Black Money" made the same mistake this year. The market decline in China was the direct result of Bernanke's policies. I love him. He's a sly dog.
And you can't always use the numbers because of changes in reserve requirements and changes in assets eligible for reserve ratios. And so it is obvious no one at the Fed, no professional economist, and no university professor has caught on.
Goldilox (3/3/07; 08:47:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 152934)
Reserve numbers
@ Flow5,
Do you have labels for the columns of reserve data you posted? I can guess a couple of them, but I often guess wrong.
canamami (3/3/07; 08:30:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 152933)
Gas Crunch in Ontario
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/03/02/truckingrules.html
A harbinger of things to come?
flow5 (3/3/07; 08:06:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 152932)
Member Commercial Bank Adjusted "Free" Legal Reserves
163.9 86.1 0.19 -0.09 1998-12-01 6.72
164.3 88.5 0.29 0.21 1999-01-01 6.79
164.5 83.4 0.00 0.03 1999-02-01 6.81
165.0 83.0 -0.17 -0.08 1999-03-01 7.04
166.2 82.6 0.07 -0.02 1999-04-01 6.92
166.2 85.4 0.33 0.10 1999-05-01 7.15
166.2 84.7 0.18 0.00 1999-06-01 7.55
166.7 82.9 0.13 -0.04 1999-07-01 7.63
167.1 82.2 -0.15 -0.10 1999-08-01 7.94
167.9 87.0 0.09 0.15 1999-09-01 7.82
168.2 89.0 0.05 0.14 1999-10-01 7.85
168.3 100.7 1.73 0.50 1999-11-01 7.74
168.3 115.4 3.24 1.09 1999-12-01 7.91
168.8 98.1 1.54 0.62 2000-01-01 8.21
169.8 82.2 -0.32 -0.08 2000-02-01 8.33
171.2 80.4 -0.43 -0.22 2000-03-01 8.24
171.3 81.6 -0.13 -0.08 2000-04-01 8.15
171.5 84.4 0.21 -0.01 2000-05-01 8.52
172.4 83.4 -0.36 0.06 2000-06-01 8.29
172.8 83.7 -0.53 0.07 2000-07-01 8.15
172.8 82.6 -1.81 -0.01 2000-08-01 8.03
173.7 83.1 -3.23 0.06 2000-09-01 7.91
174.0 82.4 -1.56 -0.05 2000-10-01 7.80
174.1 84.5 0.22 -0.07 2000-11-01 7.75
174.0 85.9 0.55 -0.11 2000-12-01 7.38
175.1 87.2 0.56 0.16 2001-01-01 7.03
175.8 80.7 -0.37 -0.10 2001-02-01 7.05
176.2 80.1 -0.34 -0.11 2001-03-01 6.95
176.9 80.5 -0.33 -0.21 2001-04-01 7.08
177.7 83.8 0.13 -0.04 2001-05-01 7.15
178.0 82.8 -0.03 -0.01 2001-06-01 7.16
177.5 84.2 0.18 0.08 2001-07-01 7.13
177.5 83.2 -0.13 -0.16 2001-08-01 6.95
178.3 105.1 1.92 0.67 2001-09-01 6.82
177.7 90.4 0.32 -0.43 2001-10-01 6.62
177.4 86.8 0.61 -1.19 2001-11-01 6.66
176.7 89.5 0.95 -0.36 2001-12-01 7.07
177.1 91.7 1.13 0.40 2002-01-01 7.00
177.8 87.8 0.40 0.31 2002-02-01 6.89
178.8 86.2 0.35 0.19 2002-03-01 7.01
179.8 87.1 0.28 0.11 2002-04-01 6.99
179.8 86.9 0.37 0.14 2002-05-01 6.81
179.9 85.5 -1.95 0.07 2002-06-01 6.65
180.1 86.2 -0.42 0.15 2002-07-01 6.49
180.7 85.8 -0.09 0.11 2002-08-01 6.29
181.0 87.9 -0.16 0.23 2002-09-01 6.09
181.3 88.7 -0.30 0.18 2002-10-01 6.11
181.3 90.4 0.26 0.19 2002-11-01 6.07
180.9 93.6 0.74 0.27 2002-12-01 6.05
181.7 94.1 0.71 0.56 2003-01-01 5.92
183.1 90.4 0.36 0.43 2003-02-01 5.84
184.2 89.6 0.41 0.38 2003-03-01 5.75
183.8 91.0 0.48 0.30 2003-04-01 5.81
183.5 91.8 0.60 0.38 2003-05-01 5.48
183.7 91.3 0.34 0.30 2003-06-01 5.23
183.9 94.0 0.53 0.45 2003-07-01 5.63
184.6 95.1 0.47 -0.41 2003-08-01 6.26
185.2 95.3 0.17 0.21 2003-09-01 6.15
185.0 94.4 0.03 0.32 2003-10-01 5.95
184.5 95.7 0.52 0.26 2003-11-01 5.93
184.3 96.8 0.72 0.21 2003-12-01 5.88
185.2 97.7 0.67 0.41 2004-01-01 5.74
186.2 94.1 0.23 0.33 2004-02-01 5.64
187.4 93.9 0.25 0.28 2004-03-01 5.45
188.0 95.4 0.14 0.36 2004-04-01 5.83
189.1 95.8 0.07 0.43 2004-05-01 6.27
189.7 96.2 0.09 0.42 2004-06-01 6.29
189.4 95.7 0.12 0.41 2004-07-01 6.06
189.5 95.2 -0.05 0.30 2004-08-01 5.87
189.9 98.4 0.16 0.41 2004-09-01 5.75
190.9 96.1 -0.16 0.24 2004-10-01 5.72
191.0 97.1 0.30 0.14 2004-11-01 5.73
190.3 96.9 0.30 0.12 2004-12-01 5.75
190.7 99.7 0.43 0.39 2005-01-01 5.71
191.8 96.0 0.01 0.26 2005-02-01 5.63
193.3 95.0 -0.13 0.17 2005-03-01 5.93
194.6 95.7 0.01 0.16 2005-04-01 5.86
194.4 94.6 -0.05 0.14 2005-05-01 5.72
194.5 95.5 -0.30 0.06 2005-06-01 5.58
195.4 95.5 -0.06 0.01 2005-07-01 5.70
196.4 94.8 -0.23 -0.02 2005-08-01 5.82
198.8 97.5 0.06 0.13 2005-09-01 5.77
199.2 95.8 -0.38 0.01 2005-10-01 6.07
197.6 97.1 0.12 0.01 2005-11-01 6.33
196.8 97.4 0.24 -0.01 2005-12-01 6.27
198.3 101.5 0.58 0.31 2006-01-01 6.15
198.7 95.0 0.04 0.05 2006-02-01 6.25
199.8 93.5 -0.20 -0.08 2006-03-01 6.32
201.5 93.8 -0.17 -0.08 2006-04-01 6.51
202.5 94.5 -0.03 -0.07 2006-05-01 6.60
202.9 95.2 -0.23 -0.02 2006-06-01 6.68
203.5 94.8 -0.11 -0.02 2006-07-01 6.76
203.9 93.8 -0.33 -0.19 2006-08-01 6.52
202.9 94.7 -0.27 -0.06 2006-09-01 6.40
201.8 93.0 -0.85 -0.17 2006-10-01 6.36
201.5 93.6 -0.14 -0.14 2006-11-01 6.24
201.8 95.7 0.22 -0.16 2006-12-01 5.32
202.4 97.6 0.38 0.07 2007-01-01 6.22
90.9 -0.36 -0.17
Cometose (3/3/07; 06:57:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 152931)
Silver/ continuous contract quote versus near month
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p26821412816
I might be trying to sound too positive , but the divergence and discrepancy indicates to me , we might have gotten a little overdone on the down side in silver......
Hope springs eternal from the fountain of hope inside and the endorphins in my brain that rally forth therefrom
i will be buying more silver some day ; two road diverged in a yellow wood , and I took the one less traveled by ...
Do you think that Robert Frost was a GOLD BUG TOO......
perhaps yellow is a reference in symbolism .......to
GOLD ........
GOOD WEEKEND TO ALL
Cometose (3/3/07; 06:27:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 152929)
strange
the junior sector held up considerably better
than the road more traveled......... this week
that is very encouraging .....
indicating to me that this business is a blip
Hopefully the bargainhunters with fresh (equity) cash will find gold and silver irresistable come Monday morning
Sundeck (3/3/07; 05:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 152928)
Eclipse
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_eclipse
It is not commonly realised, but there are always at least two lunar eclipses every year, in contrast to solar eclipses, that are relatively uncommon.
Most lunar eclipses are "partial", but the one tonight will be total. They can only be viewed from the night hemisphere of the Earth; except for the comparitively rare selenehelion events (see link).
Nothing to do with gold, of course, except for the Moon's colour...
Cheers
:-)
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
