 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/3/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 23:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 105397)
Debts could swallow up tax cut cash
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2003-07-02-taxcut_x.htm
Snippit:
Millions of taxpayers are seeing early benefits of the federal tax cut, and nearly half agree on a plan for the extra money: They'll use it to pay bills. According to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll, more than twice the number of Americans who have seen an increase in take-home pay or who expect an IRS bonus check will pay off bills rather than spend it — 45% vs. 22%. That could be bad news for a struggling economy in need of a new infusion of consumer spending.
Black Blade: And a lot of people are living on debt. Yikes!
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 23:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 105396)
silvercollector - Paul Wolfowitz
The Guardian quote was apparently taken from a speech given by Wolfowitz and from his interview by Vanity Fair. I think that Vanity Fair gave the quote in its entirety and the Guardian's George Wright picked out what he wanted to project to his readers. It did cause a stir for a little bit but the story quickly disappeared. Of course if Wolfowitz had made the quote as stated in the Guardian it would likely still be news and Wolfowitz would be working in the private sector by now. ;-)
Anyway, it is interesting now people latch onto political parties/philosphies/agendas like some people do with religion. Such is life I guess. Being neither conservative or liberal I find it all rather amusing.
- Black Blade
mikal
(7/3/03; 23:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 105395)
Re: Unemployment Reporting
I reckon all official government pronouncements from the President or the Labor Secretary or from Alan Greenspan and Fed regional governors or from the mainstream, sanctioned and sacrosanct media gotta be chewed with a pinch of sea salt. Because you can't swim against the tide when all us peasant folk are said to be at sea(confused and bewildered). But we're between the devil and the deep blue sea if we wish to continue to enjoy the hospitality of the nation that tolerates us. Why should little folk really only expect as much disinformation as they can spare us? Is it really a matter of life and death for the government? Yes and they're in their element taking matters into their own hands when it comes down to national security. So much so, that they'll go to the ends of the earth to find threats to cross swords with, until they become their own worst enemy- working at cross purposes, getting wires crossed with allies and crossing paths with hard-boiled adversaries who have some deep-rooted and golden elements of surprise. Not to mince matters but globalization and gold might not turn out to be so compatible after all?
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 23:18:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 105394)
Will the job market ever get better?
http://money.cnn.com/2003/07/02/news/economy/jobs_walkup/index.htm
U.S employers still aren't hiring. The labor market is now in its longest slump since WW II.
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Two years ago, the U.S. economy was just entering its third -- and probably last -- quarter of recession, and the unemployment rate was just beginning to climb. Two years later, the jobless rate is still climbing. In fact, U.S. unemployment rose to its worst level in nine years in June as businesses cut thousands of jobs, the government said Thursday. Unemployment rose to 6.4 percent from 6.1 percent in May. That's the highest level since April 1994. Economists on average had expected a jobless rate of 6.2 percent. Payrolls have fallen year-over-year for 23 straight months, according to Labor Department data, extending the worst stretch for the labor market since World War II. Usually, by this point in the recession-recovery cycle, the jobless rate should be on its way back down. The last time it rose two years after the last quarter of a recession was in 1982, when the economy was just climbing out of a deep, prolonged slump.
And the unemployment rate, though relatively low by historical standards, may actually understate the labor market's woes. For one thing, many unemployed people have simply quit looking for work, meaning they are not counted as part of the "labor force" and thus are not counted in the Labor Department's calculation of the unemployment rate. If the economy improves, many of these "discouraged" workers -- 482,000, by the department's last count -- will likely start looking for work again, and the unemployment rate will rise.
Meanwhile, 1.9 million people have been unemployed 27 weeks or more, meaning many of them have exhausted their unemployment benefits. According to research by Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors, 43.2 percent of all unemployed workers have exhausted their benefits -- the highest rate in more than three decades. "Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972," Chan said. Furthermore, many of the people who do have jobs are working only part-time. According to the Labor Department, if you add all the workers "marginally attached" to the labor force -- out of work and not looking for work -- to all those working part-time and those unemployed and looking for work, the unemployment rate rises to 9.7 percent.
Not included in this group are the untold number of people who have had to take lower-paying jobs because they can't find work in their chosen profession. That trend, combined with all the slack in the labor market, has conspired to slow wage growth. That, in turn, could hurt consumer spending, which fuels more than two-thirds of the world's largest economy.
Black Blade: Aside from the moronic statement that the recession ended two years ago (not borne out by the NBER and based solely on "official" GDP data), the unemployment rate will likely increase further. Capital expenditures are still down and corporate earnings have not improved much not to mention 58% of company pre-announcements (earnings warnings) are projecting a negative earnings outlook for the next quarter. Meanwhile corporate insider selling is at the highest level since 1999. In a word – "grim".
silvercollector
(7/3/03; 22:58:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 105393)
BB
I just saw your last message.
"His latest comments follow his widely reported statement from an interview in Vanity Fair last month, in which he said that "for reasons that have a lot to do with the US government bureaucracy, we settled on the one issue that everyone could agree on: weapons of mass destruction."
Was the Vanity Fair article retracted as well?
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 22:53:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 105392)
Wolfowitz Quotes
http://www.guardian.co.uk/corrections/story/0,3604,971436,00.html
The Actual Wolfowitz Quote:
Wolfowitz was answering a query regarding why the U.S. thought using economic pressure would work with respect to North Korea and not with regard to Iraq:
"The United States hopes to end the nuclear standoff with North Korea by putting economic pressure on the impoverished nation, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said Saturday. North Korea would respond to economic pressure, unlike Iraq, where military action was necessary because the country's oil money was propping up the regime, Wolfowitz told delegates at the second annual Asia Security Conference in Singapore."
Vanity Fair Quote:
"The country is teetering on the edge of economic collapse," Wolfowitz said. "That I believe is a major point of leverage." "The primary difference between North Korea and Iraq is that we had virtually no economic options in Iraq because the country floats on a sea of oil,"
The following is the Guardian retraction (the next day June 5):
Corrections and clarifications
Thursday June 5, 2003
A report which was posted on our website on June 4 under the heading "Wolfowitz: Iraq war was about oil" misconstrued remarks made by the US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, making it appear that he had said that oil was the main reason for going to war in Iraq. He did not say that. He said, according to the Department of Defence website, "The ... difference between North Korea and Iraq is that we had virtually no economic options with Iraq because the country floats on a sea of oil. In the case of North Korea, the country is teetering on the edge of economic collapse and that I believe is a major point of leverage whereas the military picture with North Korea is very different from that with Iraq." The sense was clearly that the US had no economic options by means of which to achieve its objectives, not that the economic value of the oil motivated the war. The report appeared only on the website and has now been removed.
Black Blade: Those are the quotes by Wolfowitz when asked why Iraq and not North Korea. However, there are those in the news media who look for sensationalism to sell newspapers (it is a very competitive business and they at times will pander to political leanings of their subscribers).
silvercollector
(7/3/03; 22:50:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 105391)
BB
http://www.matrixmasters.com/world/america/iraq/2003_07_01_archiveiraq.html
Please go through the site and its archives. Perhaps there are numerous distorted stories. There are however some credible sources and a sickening theme that is difficult to dismiss is being presented.
The Iraq situation is not good. We knew that before this site. This site has gathered alot of published material and it is up to the reader to censor accordingly. There is too much information that can be cross-referenced to too many sources for it to be all incorrect.
I believe the US government has gone 'out-of-bounds' on this Iraq situation. It should admit fault and reel this in before it gets completely out of hand.
silvercollector
(7/3/03; 22:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 105390)
What is this garbage?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/correspondent/3028585.stm
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 22:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 105389)
silvercollector - Paul Wolfowitz
You do realize that the Guardian printed a retraction of that article a couple of weeks ago as Wolfowitz's comments were taken out of context giving a ifferent take. A similar thing happened with some Bush comments at the New York Times. When the comments were read in their entirety it was obvious there was a completely different interpretation. Although I do agree that the war was over oil.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 22:24:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 105388)
Market Wrap Up – Middleton
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
For weeks now, as the unemployment figures got worse and worse we continue to hear how the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of our economy's health. When the figures improved as they did last week, we heard how it is a good sign for the economy going forward. From these discussions we can conclude: when the figure is bad it means the economy has already taken the figure into account, but when it is perceived as good it now says that the current trough has bottomed, and looking forward we expect the economy along with the jobless rate to improve. That is all good, but one or two weeks still do not make a trend, and to declare the economic weakness corrected is premature. So on goes the spin!
Black Blade: Exactly! It was quite funny to watch CNBC's Larry Kudlow fall into a state of depression when the numbers were released and later in the day he babbled on about how he could see positive items in the report an then spin a yarn about how it was really "good". All the time, the show's host Mark Haines has a look of disbelief at what he was hearing. Labor Sec. Elaine Chao's damage control effort was disjointed and equally without credibility. Then there was a sudden parade of economists presented to babble on about the report as a "lagging indictor" and all will get better in the "second half". Never mind they have been saying the same thing for three years running. That's one hell of a "lag" for the "lagging indicator". Hope springs eternal.
silvercollector
(7/3/03; 22:22:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 105387)
From same link
Wolfowitz: Iraq war was about oil
(George Wright, The Guardian, June 4, 2003)
Oil was the main reason for military action against Iraq, a leading White House hawk has claimed, confirming the worst fears of those opposed to the US-led war. . . . The US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz - who has already undermined Tony Blair's position over weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by describing them as a "bureaucratic" excuse for war - has now gone further by claiming the real motive was that Iraq is "swimming" in oil. . . . Asked why a nuclear power such as North Korea was being treated differently from Iraq, where hardly any weapons of mass destruction had been found, the deputy defence minister said: "Let's look at it simply. The most important difference between North Korea and Iraq is that economically, we just had no choice in Iraq. The country swims on a sea of oil." . . . His latest comments follow his widely reported statement from an interview in Vanity Fair last month, in which he said that "for reasons that have a lot to do with the US government bureaucracy, we settled on the one issue that everyone could agree on: weapons of mass destruction." . . . Mr Wolfowitz's frank assessment of the importance of oil could not come at a worse time for the US and UK governments, which are both facing fierce criticism at home and abroad over allegations that they exaggerated the threat posed by Saddam Hussein in order to justify the war. . . . In the US, the failure to find solid proof of chemical, biological and nuclear arms in Iraq has raised similar concerns over Mr Bush's justification for the war and prompted calls for congressional investigations.
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 22:05:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 105386)
Silvercollector
That's an interesting theory but too many flaws to be credible and the source is somewhat suspect. However, I had wondered when someone would bring up the idea of the US planting evidence of WMD. Such a thing could happen given how government (any government) works. That said, government's like the US don't use their own for "black bag" or "wet work" operations. They use third party sources so as to not leave any "finger prints" and of course to have deniability when things don't work out.
I do find it interesting that the issue of finding WMD is not all that important to most people though some are trying to make it one. Democrats and Republicans were both supportive of the war effort so making it a partisan issue seems to have fallen flat as well. Still, most every so called intelligence agency foreign and domestic had essentially the same information to work with which makes the WMD issue even more problematic.
Of course Saddam could have simply complied with UN demands as outlined in the terms of surrender (Gulf War I) and he woul still be in power. His refusal to comply effectively meant that the first war had not ended until the terms of surrender had been met. If there were no WMD's it makes Saddam's refusal of compliance that much more curious.
In the end the war was really about oil or at least indirectly the security of the world's "gas tank" and the case for the removal of Saddam could easily be made due to national security reasons. That's a consequence of being energy dependent on such a volatile region. Unfortunately the US will always be present in the region because without a secure flow of oil from the Middle East there is no economy. "Cheap Energy" is the engine and lifeblood of economic growth.
Personally I was rather ambilivant about whether the US and its allies went to war but I do understand the pressure to do so. World oil production is close to reaching its peak (Hubbert's Peak) and the only region with any significant potential for increased or at least stable oil production for the next few years is in the Middle East while virtually all other regions are essentially in decline. The last discovery of a "Super Giant" was Canterell Field, Mexico in 1976. Russia has never recovered to full Soviet era production and the Caspian Sea region has been a huge disappointment. North Sea oil production peaked two years ago, and SE Asian oil production is in rapid decline. Meanwhile demand will only increase as Third World nations continue to industrialize.
I suspect that we will see more disputes and wars over diminishing resources such as oil. Oil and gas are arguably the most important commodities in the world today.
- Black Blade
silvercollector
(7/3/03; 21:42:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 105385)
Expert Said to Tell Legislators He Was Pressed to Distort Some Evidence
http://www.matrixmasters.com/world/america/iraq/wariraq%20home.shtml
(JAMES RISEN and DOUGLAS JEHL, New York Times, June 25, 2003)
A top State Department expert on chemical and biological weapons told Congressional committees in closed-door hearings last week that he had been pressed to tailor his analysis on Iraq and other matters to conform with the Bush administration's views...
silvercollector
(7/3/03; 20:13:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 105384)
CIA plants WMD in Iraq?
http://www.iraqwar.ru/iraq-read_article.php?articleId=9474&lang=en
We have this bizarre story unfolding with the gold (copper) ingots leaving Iraq and now this story of the CIA planting WMD.
How does one confirm this?
TownCrier
(7/3/03; 16:52:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 105383)
---Investors fear end of bond bubble is in sight---
That was the front page banner headline used today in the U.S. edition Financial Times.
Knowing that it is the media that prods along the collective mentality of the masses, I think they broke just about every rule with that one.
First, they used the word fear. "Investors fear..." Any guesses how well that one was digested over breakfasts across the land?
Second, they didn't hem and haw and stutter around about it with "maybe" and whatnot, they flat out said the bond market was a bubble. A bubble. Again, think breakfast tables everywhere... <BURP>
Third, they actually used the word "end".
Bear in mind that this is no flunky hometown rag. This is the Financial Times.
When the bond market rolls over, you will be glad you have diversified in advance into gold.
R.
TownCrier
(7/3/03; 16:41:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 105382)
M-3 rises by $21 billion on the week, Fed adds $9.75 billion today
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030703/economy_fed_moneysupply_table_1.html
In its latest release of weekly stats, the Fed indicated the following changes in the nation's money supply (for the week of June 23):
M-1 declined by $5.2 billion to $1,271.6 billion
M-2 increased by $4.1 billion to $6,050.6 billion
M-3 increased by $21.1 billion to $8,743.3 billion
Meanwhile, the Fed today launched Independence Day weekend with an open market intervention that provided new money for the nation's banking system to the tune of $5 billion through 28-day repurchase agreements and $4.75 billion through seven-day RPs.
For a summary of stats on the Fed accounts, visit the url.
R.
Gandalf the White
(7/3/03; 16:25:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 105381)
INTERESTING Bond Chart !!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_USU3&v=d3
Looks like a Perfect Head-and-Shoulders BREAKDOWN !!!
Look out BELOW !
NOW, can you figure ANY reason to sell BONDS ?
Can you think of a GOLDEN place to place any proceeds ?
Thanks, I knew you could !
Have a GREAT Holiday all.
<;-)
R Powell
(7/3/03; 14:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 105380)
For those of us (like me) that need help with Rudyard Kipling
THE GODS OF THE COPYBOOK HEADINGS
Rudyard Kipling (1865-1936)
NOTE: "Copybook" is the British for Notebook; a "Copybook heading" was a proverb or other essential truth that a teacher assigned to his class to write an essay on. The "Gods of the Market" do not refer to the Free Market (there was still little government intervention in Kipling's time), but to fashionable wisdom. I was tempted to put it in the "Historical Archives" tower, because it symbolically describes the cycles of history so well.
The explanation above was taken from a page on Kipling's poetry, but I included it to better put his observations on historical idiocy in proper context
R Powell
(7/3/03; 14:06:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 105379)
Happy holiday weekend !
Sundeck: (105368), Excellent work, thank you!
Zhisheng: Great poem from a great poet.
Topaz
(7/3/03; 13:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 105378)
@ White Rose.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=TYXY%2CFVXY%2CDX1%21%2CGC1%21&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=10
Considering the negative implications of the unemployment data, things remained fairly subdued...until you look deeper! DX was all over the place, the Bond/SM inverse relationship was shattered...and P-Gold performed well against the onslaught. What a Month lies ahead!!
Waverider
(7/3/03; 13:38:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 105377)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"Gold, the equities markets, and the dollar traded all over the map in the holiday shortened trading session as hopes of an U.S. economic recovery were dashed by a much higher than expected rise in U.S. jobless claims and higher revisions to previous unemployment claims data. The U.S. dollar won out as a very weak bond auction in Japan found few takers and economic concerns over a weak dollar and strong Euro stoked economic fears in comments given by the German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder..."
White Rose
(7/3/03; 12:11:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 105376)
Big Bond Selloff today
Guys -- wake up! Somebody tell me what is happening today!
This looks big 5yr 10yr 30yr bonds are being sold off big today.
Happy 4th of July!
Zhisheng
(7/3/03; 07:37:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 105375)
The Gods of the Copybook Headings
http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm
Limp up to explain it once more.
Carl H
(7/3/03; 07:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 105374)
Unemployment Rate Surges to 9-Year High
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20030703/bs_nm/economy_jobs_dc
I don't remember this being part of the recovery plan -- I guess I missed something...
Got Gold.
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 06:51:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 105373)
Grim Day For Wall Street
Oh yeah, Euro markets are not happy and US stock index futures dropping hard. CNBC is bringing on Labor Sec. Elaine Chao in about 45 minutes for damage control and Larry Kudlow is in a state of shock. Quite funny actually. More subdued discussion too but still talking of "second half recovery".
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 06:42:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 105372)
WOW! Official Unemployment Soars
Official unemployment jumped to 6.4%, fisrt time jobless claims rise to 430,000, May's jobless 70,000 higher. Last week's number revised substantially higher!
I bet Alan Greenspan and the boyz and girlz at the Fed are scrambling to the phones for a conference call right about now. Financial media carnival barkers are trying to brush this off as a "lagging indicator" but the hosts aren't buying it! The BLS stats people are probably devising all kinds of new ways to massage the number now.
These numbers are whoppers even for massaged government data. Good thing it's only half a day of trading on Wall Street. "Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
- Black Blade
Sundeck
(7/3/03; 06:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 105371)
Counting to three...in my second-last message...
Oh dear...two 2s I see.
I can't even count to three!
...which reminds me of a quote from Warren Buffett:
"There are three kinds of people in the world; those who can count and those who cannot."
...and attempts to predict the stock market remind me of one from Albert Einstein:
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted."
Good night!
Sundeck
Carl H
(7/3/03; 06:07:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 105370)
Pulava Quote
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
I particularly liked this quote from Jim Puplava's Market Wrapup:
"Borrowing money to pay your monthly bills is a not a healthy economic sign."
I would love to hear Dr. Ron Paul ask Uncle Al about that during his next Humprey-Hawkins testamony.
Got Gold?
Sundeck
(7/3/03; 05:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 105369)
Correction to my last message
Point 10. should read:
"What 9(d) is saying..."
Sundeck
(7/3/03; 05:06:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 105368)
Nemo #105343 - Predicting the stock market
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction
Nemo,
I have read the paper by Sornette and Zhou a couple of times. Some scant comments follow:
My understanding of what the authors have done...
1. The authors examine the time series provided by various stock market indices (S&P, Nikkei) during times when the indices are declining (anti-bubble).
2. They note that such intervals are sometimes characterised by dips and peaks which appear to have decreasing frequency. (That is to say, that the pronounced dips and peaks appear to be separated by increasing intervals of time.)
2. The authors mathematically model the time series containing these dips and peaks using particular mathematical functions that they claim can represent certain kinds of herd behaviour. Fundamentally, they fit the declining index sequence with a "log-periodic power law" (LPPL) which is just a particular mathematical function that can be used to describe a more-or-less smooth "wobble" with lengthening period.
3. Their primary model describes the major downward trend in the index, but there are many "wobbles" on a finer scale that are not modelled very well. They attempt to improve the fit by superimposing a second LPPL in the model (to give more wobbles).
4. The mathematical models can be evaluated for times beyond the end of the available time series of the market indices. These "extrapolations", they claim, provide a good indication of likely future trends in the market indices, that incorporate certain characteristics of herd behaviour.
5. They attempt to provide greater conviction by injecting "special" noise onto the time series of the market indices, repeating the modelling process, and showing that the extrapolated solutions do not differ very much from the original extrapolated curves.
Additional comments, criticisms...
6. There is little doubt that the time-series of market indices contain "signatures" of human herd behaviour. Therefore, attempts to model the index variations over time using mathematical models of herd behaviour is appropriate.
7. However, while in some respects the behaviour of herds contain many features that appear tantalisingly reproducible (within a single herd, and from one type of herd to another), in other respects the herd behaviour is spectacularly unpredictable.
8. The number of factors that influence the herd and also the number of incipient states in which one subsequently finds the herd are very large. A short historical sequence of just ***one signature*** of observed herd behaviour (the index time-series) almost certainly lacks the information that would allow reliable subsequent predictions of the state of the herd and its new signature (the extrapolated index time-series).
9. While the authors have provided a sophisticated mathematical formalism for tracking some aspects of anti-bubbles, there is no guarantee that:
(a) the aspects of the time-series that drives their models are the ones that will prevail in the future, or that
(b) their models have picked up, possibly very subtle components in the time series, that would cause the (correct) extrapolations to diverge wildly, or
(c) that the injected noise in anyway adequately represents the variability in important herd characteristics, or, in a worst case,
(d) that there are any strong precursers whatsoever within the historical time-series that can be used to reliably identify the immediate future trend and the evolving pattern.
10. What 9(c) is saying, basically, is that it is impossible to predict the future with certainty. And if the future cannot be predicted with certainty, then just how sure are we of our prediction?
11. The one test that they actually show (predicting the S&P from 24 Aug 2002 to 19 Jun 2003, using the data from 9 Aug 2000 to 24 Aug 2002), does not do a very convincing job, in my view. What faith does that instil for the much longer prediction beyond 2005?
12. Furthermore, what does the model say about the end of the bear and beginning of the next bull? I suspect strongly that beyond 2005, the extrapolation continues on its merry, winding, way ever southward - forever more. Is that where we expect the index to go? (This criticism is perhaps a little unfair, in that the authors only intend to model the down-trend,)
13. Finally, I personally found the paper very interesting and the technique may get some bulk future trends roughly correct....but how much better than someone with a bearish view, following the historical trend and running off the end with a wavey pen?
One final note...
14. I worry that the mathematicians and modellers who provide the non-linear/statistical/risk models that underpin the derivatives trade may adopt methods similar to this, but without any clear understanding of the complexity of nature or how stable the dominant "emergent properties" are.
Thank you Sir NEMO for alerting The Table to this work...
:-)
Sundeck
Topaz
(7/3/03; 04:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 105367)
@Sundeck.
G'day mate,
Dunno about another wave down Sundeck. I'm looking at the Bond Yield/Dollar relationship from the "flight to Cash" perspective and consistent with a deflationary move. If trends don't reverse this incipient Bond Bear may prove to be the undoing of it all...imo.
TownCrier
(7/3/03; 04:13:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 105366)
The significant future draws nearer
http://www.ecb.int/key/03/sp030703.htm
Excerpts of ECB President Willem Duisenberg's introductory remarks to the European Parliament during presentation of the annual report:
"...As mentioned at the beginning of my remarks, we are currently experiencing truly historic developments. The dream of a united Europe stretching beyond former post-war rifts is about to become reality. Although major challenges lie ahead, as many of the acceding countries are still developing into fully-fledged market economies, I believe that the signing of the Accession Treaty at the Athens summit in April testified to our joint belief in an integrated Europe. The clear endorsement of the Treaty in the national referendums that have already taken place in a number of acceding countries provides evidence of this commitment.
["Heads of State or Government, at their summit meeting in December last year, took the historic decision to invite ten countries to join the European Union (EU) as of 1 May 2004."]
"...Upon accession, the new Member States will join Economic and Monetary Union with the status of "countries with a derogation", and their central banks will become part of the ESCB. At a later stage, these central banks will become part of the Eurosystem, once their respective countries have fulfilled the convergence criteria for adopting the euro.
"A key priority of the ECB is to have in place the necessary technical and institutional infrastructure to ensure an orderly enlargement of the ESCB and, later on, of the Eurosystem. An interesting foretaste of the new, larger ESCB was provided by the last General Council meeting on 26 June. For the first time, the governors of the acceding country central banks participated as observers in a meeting of the General Council of the ECB.
"With this look towards the future, I should like to conclude my statement. This will be the last time that I have the opportunity to present to you the Annual Report of the European Central Bank, which I have had the honour to preside over for the last five years. I would like to thank you for the co-operation and cordial relations that we have maintained during these years."
-------(from url)------
Simply amazing how the years do fly by. Almost frightening, it is. With the EMU through its infancy, are you now prepared for the challenges that unfold during the next five years in the cosmic blink of an eye?
Talk to the folks at Centennial about a gold diversification strategy that is right for you.
R.
Black Blade
(7/3/03; 03:42:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 105365)
Newmont Australian unit Yandal in insolvency move
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030703/minerals_yandal_1.html
Snippit:
Newmont said the move follows an unsuccessful attempt to obtain 100 percent acceptances of offers to buy back creditors' claims, valued in total at $237 million in notes and $200 million in hedge-book liabilities. Newmont said the subsidiary's board had "resolved to place the company (Yandal) into voluntary administration, a form of insolvency proceedings, in Australia as it is insolvent or likely to become insolvent."
Last Friday, Newmont, the world's biggest gold miner, said it had received acceptances for $197 million of the notes and from all but one of the hedge counter-parties. That counter-party holds $46 million of the $202 million of hedge liabilities Newmont wanted to buy back. Both offers from Newmont equated to 50 cents for each dollar owed.
"We are very disappointed that that we were not able to get 100 percent acceptances of our offers to acquire the claims of the Yandal creditors," Thomas Mahoney, Newmont Vice President and Treasurer said in a statement. Newmont also said it is now making an offer to bring Yandal out of voluntary administration by valuing its assets at $200 million, which could leave Yandal's third-party noteholders and hedge counter parties with no more than 40 cents on the dollar. If the new offer is accepted, Newmont would return to control to its directors, Newmont said.
Black Blade: I believe it was Morgan Stanley that was the hold out. Anyway, Newmont can simply walk away while retaining the bulk of the Normandy acquisition without liability and the banksters are left holding the bag – in this case a mine with more forward sold gold than exists in reserves. Looks like Newmont has the last laugh. Just another casualty of forward selling.
Sundeck
(7/3/03; 03:37:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 105364)
Topaz #105363 Dollar "Stability"
Topaz,
Agree. Certainly seems like "someone" wants the dollar to hold for a while...but compare the present situation with the fall since Apr 01 (see INO Max chart)...the last "step" lasted nearly three months and the one before that nearly four months. Is this one any different? Doubt it?
I would imagine there would be lots at stake if the dollar declined "too quickly"...whatever that means. Hence I suspect there are probably "agreements" around a few places (Japan, China, SE Asia) to ensure that things don't get outa hand.
Does the US have the ability to contain the slide in the USDX all by itself? "Strong dollar" rhetoric? Monetary intervention? How many Euros and Yen, not to mention GOLD dubloons, do they have to sell for dollars?
Does anyone know the mechanics of controlling a currency slide?
Topaz
(7/3/03; 02:27:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 105363)
Dollar.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
One things has become glaringly obvious these last several Week's. I'm referring to the "downspikes" on the Dollar Index as seen on the 15 Min Chart. "Someone" wants the Dollar at these levels while the Market is seeking to trend higher.... Who? I haven't a Clue.
On another note, Non index currencies, AUD and ZAR to name two, are outperforming lately...a 30%+/- uptick on the Dollar in 12 Mth's doing nothing for their respective Gold prices.
Chris Powell
(7/3/03; 01:39:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 105362)
Newmont goes to war with bullion bankers
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1572
Newmont fails to get deal with bullion bankers
and so puts Yandal into reorganization:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1572
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
